Daily Papers

Photorealistic 3D full-body human reconstruction from a single image is a critical yet challenging task for applications in films and video games due to inherent ambiguities and severe self-occlusions. While recent approaches leverage SMPL estimation and SMPL-conditioned image generative models to hallucinate novel views, they suffer from inaccurate 3D priors estimated from SMPL meshes and have difficulty in handling difficult human poses and reconstructing fine details. In this paper, we propose SyncHuman, a novel framework that combines 2D multiview generative model and 3D native generative model for the first time, enabling high-quality clothed human mesh reconstruction from single-view images even under challenging human poses. Multiview generative model excels at capturing fine 2D details but struggles with structural consistency, whereas 3D native generative model generates coarse yet structurally consistent 3D shapes. By integrating the complementary strengths of these two approaches, we develop a more effective generation framework. Specifically, we first jointly fine-tune the multiview generative model and the 3D native generative model with proposed pixel-aligned 2D-3D synchronization attention to produce geometrically aligned 3D shapes and 2D multiview images. To further improve details, we introduce a feature injection mechanism that lifts fine details from 2D multiview images onto the aligned 3D shapes, enabling accurate and high-fidelity reconstruction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SyncHuman achieves robust and photo-realistic 3D human reconstruction, even for images with challenging poses. Our method outperforms baseline methods in geometric accuracy and visual fidelity, demonstrating a promising direction for future 3D generation models.

Existing human datasets for avatar creation are typically limited to laboratory environments, wherein high-quality annotations (e.g., SMPL estimation from 3D scans or multi-view images) can be ideally provided. However, their annotating requirements are impractical for real-world images or videos, posing challenges toward real-world applications on current avatar creation methods. To this end, we propose the WildAvatar dataset, a web-scale in-the-wild human avatar creation dataset extracted from YouTube, with 10,000+ different human subjects and scenes. WildAvatar is at least 10times richer than previous datasets for 3D human avatar creation. We evaluate several state-of-the-art avatar creation methods on our dataset, highlighting the unexplored challenges in real-world applications on avatar creation. We also demonstrate the potential for generalizability of avatar creation methods, when provided with data at scale. We publicly release our data source links and annotations, to push forward 3D human avatar creation and other related fields for real-world applications.

Estimating human and camera trajectories with accurate scale in the world coordinate system from a monocular video is a highly desirable yet challenging and ill-posed problem. In this study, we aim to recover expressive parametric human models (i.e., SMPL-X) and corresponding camera poses jointly, by leveraging the synergy between three critical players: the world, the human, and the camera. Our approach is founded on two key observations. Firstly, camera-frame SMPL-X estimation methods readily recover absolute human depth. Secondly, human motions inherently provide absolute spatial cues. By integrating these insights, we introduce a novel framework, referred to as WHAC, to facilitate world-grounded expressive human pose and shape estimation (EHPS) alongside camera pose estimation, without relying on traditional optimization techniques. Additionally, we present a new synthetic dataset, WHAC-A-Mole, which includes accurately annotated humans and cameras, and features diverse interactive human motions as well as realistic camera trajectories. Extensive experiments on both standard and newly established benchmarks highlight the superiority and efficacy of our framework. We will make the code and dataset publicly available.

Synthetic data has emerged as a promising source for 3D human research as it offers low-cost access to large-scale human datasets. To advance the diversity and annotation quality of human models, we introduce a new synthetic dataset, Synbody, with three appealing features: 1) a clothed parametric human model that can generate a diverse range of subjects; 2) the layered human representation that naturally offers high-quality 3D annotations to support multiple tasks; 3) a scalable system for producing realistic data to facilitate real-world tasks. The dataset comprises 1.7M images with corresponding accurate 3D annotations, covering 10,000 human body models, 1000 actions, and various viewpoints. The dataset includes two subsets for human mesh recovery as well as human neural rendering. Extensive experiments on SynBody indicate that it substantially enhances both SMPL and SMPL-X estimation. Furthermore, the incorporation of layered annotations offers a valuable training resource for investigating the Human Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF).

Existing works in single-image human reconstruction suffer from weak generalizability due to insufficient training data or 3D inconsistencies for a lack of comprehensive multi-view knowledge. In this paper, we introduce MagicMan, a human-specific multi-view diffusion model designed to generate high-quality novel view images from a single reference image. As its core, we leverage a pre-trained 2D diffusion model as the generative prior for generalizability, with the parametric SMPL-X model as the 3D body prior to promote 3D awareness. To tackle the critical challenge of maintaining consistency while achieving dense multi-view generation for improved 3D human reconstruction, we first introduce hybrid multi-view attention to facilitate both efficient and thorough information interchange across different views. Additionally, we present a geometry-aware dual branch to perform concurrent generation in both RGB and normal domains, further enhancing consistency via geometry cues. Last but not least, to address ill-shaped issues arising from inaccurate SMPL-X estimation that conflicts with the reference image, we propose a novel iterative refinement strategy, which progressively optimizes SMPL-X accuracy while enhancing the quality and consistency of the generated multi-views. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing approaches in both novel view synthesis and subsequent 3D human reconstruction tasks.

We address the problem of fitting a parametric human body model (SMPL) to point cloud data. Optimization-based methods require careful initialization and are prone to becoming trapped in local optima. Learning-based methods address this but do not generalize well when the input pose is far from those seen during training. For rigid point clouds, remarkable generalization has been achieved by leveraging SE(3)-equivariant networks, but these methods do not work on articulated objects. In this work we extend this idea to human bodies and propose ArtEq, a novel part-based SE(3)-equivariant neural architecture for SMPL model estimation from point clouds. Specifically, we learn a part detection network by leveraging local SO(3) invariance, and regress shape and pose using articulated SE(3) shape-invariant and pose-equivariant networks, all trained end-to-end. Our novel pose regression module leverages the permutation-equivariant property of self-attention layers to preserve rotational equivariance. Experimental results show that ArtEq generalizes to poses not seen during training, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by ~44% in terms of body reconstruction accuracy, without requiring an optimization refinement step. Furthermore, ArtEq is three orders of magnitude faster during inference than prior work and has 97.3% fewer parameters. The code and model are available for research purposes at https://arteq.is.tue.mpg.de.

We introduce HART, a unified framework for sparse-view human reconstruction. Given a small set of uncalibrated RGB images of a person as input, it outputs a watertight clothed mesh, the aligned SMPL-X body mesh, and a Gaussian-splat representation for photorealistic novel-view rendering. Prior methods for clothed human reconstruction either optimize parametric templates, which overlook loose garments and human-object interactions, or train implicit functions under simplified camera assumptions, limiting applicability in real scenes. In contrast, HART predicts per-pixel 3D point maps, normals, and body correspondences, and employs an occlusion-aware Poisson reconstruction to recover complete geometry, even in self-occluded regions. These predictions also align with a parametric SMPL-X body model, ensuring that reconstructed geometry remains consistent with human structure while capturing loose clothing and interactions. These human-aligned meshes initialize Gaussian splats to further enable sparse-view rendering. While trained on only 2.3K synthetic scans, HART achieves state-of-the-art results: Chamfer Distance improves by 18-23 percent for clothed-mesh reconstruction, PA-V2V drops by 6-27 percent for SMPL-X estimation, LPIPS decreases by 15-27 percent for novel-view synthesis on a wide range of datasets. These results suggest that feed-forward transformers can serve as a scalable model for robust human reconstruction in real-world settings. Code and models will be released.

Inverse Kinematics (IK) systems are often rigid with respect to their input character, thus requiring user intervention to be adapted to new skeletons. In this paper we aim at creating a flexible, learned IK solver applicable to a wide variety of human morphologies. We extend a state-of-the-art machine learning IK solver to operate on the well known Skinned Multi-Person Linear model (SMPL). We call our model SMPL-IK, and show that when integrated into real-time 3D software, this extended system opens up opportunities for defining novel AI-assisted animation workflows. For example, pose authoring can be made more flexible with SMPL-IK by allowing users to modify gender and body shape while posing a character. Additionally, when chained with existing pose estimation algorithms, SMPL-IK accelerates posing by allowing users to bootstrap 3D scenes from 2D images while allowing for further editing. Finally, we propose a novel SMPL Shape Inversion mechanism (SMPL-SI) to map arbitrary humanoid characters to the SMPL space, allowing artists to leverage SMPL-IK on custom characters. In addition to qualitative demos showing proposed tools, we present quantitative SMPL-IK baselines on the H36M and AMASS datasets.

Methods and datasets for human pose estimation focus predominantly on side- and front-view scenarios. We overcome the limitation by leveraging synthetic data and introduce RePoGen (RarE POses GENerator), an SMPL-based method for generating synthetic humans with comprehensive control over pose and view. Experiments on top-view datasets and a new dataset of real images with diverse poses show that adding the RePoGen data to the COCO dataset outperforms previous approaches to top- and bottom-view pose estimation without harming performance on common views. An ablation study shows that anatomical plausibility, a property prior research focused on, is not a prerequisite for effective performance. The introduced dataset and the corresponding code are available on https://mirapurkrabek.github.io/RePoGen-paper/ .

Understanding how humans use physical contact to interact with the world is key to enabling human-centric artificial intelligence. While inferring 3D contact is crucial for modeling realistic and physically-plausible human-object interactions, existing methods either focus on 2D, consider body joints rather than the surface, use coarse 3D body regions, or do not generalize to in-the-wild images. In contrast, we focus on inferring dense, 3D contact between the full body surface and objects in arbitrary images. To achieve this, we first collect DAMON, a new dataset containing dense vertex-level contact annotations paired with RGB images containing complex human-object and human-scene contact. Second, we train DECO, a novel 3D contact detector that uses both body-part-driven and scene-context-driven attention to estimate vertex-level contact on the SMPL body. DECO builds on the insight that human observers recognize contact by reasoning about the contacting body parts, their proximity to scene objects, and the surrounding scene context. We perform extensive evaluations of our detector on DAMON as well as on the RICH and BEHAVE datasets. We significantly outperform existing SOTA methods across all benchmarks. We also show qualitatively that DECO generalizes well to diverse and challenging real-world human interactions in natural images. The code, data, and models are available at https://deco.is.tue.mpg.de.

We present Multi-view Pose transformer (MvP) for estimating multi-person 3D poses from multi-view images. Instead of estimating 3D joint locations from costly volumetric representation or reconstructing the per-person 3D pose from multiple detected 2D poses as in previous methods, MvP directly regresses the multi-person 3D poses in a clean and efficient way, without relying on intermediate tasks. Specifically, MvP represents skeleton joints as learnable query embeddings and let them progressively attend to and reason over the multi-view information from the input images to directly regress the actual 3D joint locations. To improve the accuracy of such a simple pipeline, MvP presents a hierarchical scheme to concisely represent query embeddings of multi-person skeleton joints and introduces an input-dependent query adaptation approach. Further, MvP designs a novel geometrically guided attention mechanism, called projective attention, to more precisely fuse the cross-view information for each joint. MvP also introduces a RayConv operation to integrate the view-dependent camera geometry into the feature representations for augmenting the projective attention. We show experimentally that our MvP model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks while being much more efficient. Notably, it achieves 92.3% AP25 on the challenging Panoptic dataset, improving upon the previous best approach [36] by 9.8%. MvP is general and also extendable to recovering human mesh represented by the SMPL model, thus useful for modeling multi-person body shapes. Code and models are available at https://github.com/sail-sg/mvp.

Reconstructing biomechanically realistic 3D human motion - recovering both kinematics (motion) and kinetics (forces) - is a critical challenge. While marker-based systems are lab-bound and slow, popular monocular methods use oversimplified, anatomically inaccurate models (e.g., SMPL) and ignore physics, fundamentally limiting their biomechanical fidelity. In this work, we introduce MonoMSK, a hybrid framework that bridges data-driven learning and physics-based simulation for biomechanically realistic 3D human motion estimation from monocular video. MonoMSK jointly recovers both kinematics (motions) and kinetics (forces and torques) through an anatomically accurate musculoskeletal model. By integrating transformer-based inverse dynamics with differentiable forward kinematics and dynamics layers governed by ODE-based simulation, MonoMSK establishes a physics-regulated inverse-forward loop that enforces biomechanical causality and physical plausibility. A novel forward-inverse consistency loss further aligns motion reconstruction with the underlying kinetic reasoning. Experiments on BML-MoVi, BEDLAM, and OpenCap show that MonoMSK significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in kinematic accuracy, while for the first time enabling precise monocular kinetics estimation.

Self-collision remains a persistent challenge in SMPL-based human pose estimation and motion generation. Under extreme articulations or stochastic motion synthesis, generated meshes frequently exhibit self-penetrations, leading to physically implausible results. We propose PoseShield, a neural collision constraint defined directly in SMPL pose space. We formulate collision correction as a constrained optimization problem and connect the learned constraint with the Eikonal equation. Enforcing Eikonal regularization ensures non-vanishing gradients near the collision boundary, improving numerical stability and robustness of the optimization process. Unlike prior methods that operate in the mesh space or rely on heuristic penalties, our approach operates directly in the low-dimensional space of human poses and is theoretically grounded. The same learned constraint extends to human motion sequences, providing a generator-agnostic post-hoc collision corrector without retraining the underlying motion model. Experiments on a newly constructed SMPL pose benchmark show that our method achieves a 95.8% success rate and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Parametric 3D human models such as SMPL have driven significant advances in human pose and shape estimation, yet their simplified kinematics limit biomechanical realism. The recently proposed SKEL model addresses this limitation by re-rigging SMPL with an anatomically accurate skeleton. However, estimating SKEL parameters directly remains challenging due to limited training data, perspective ambiguities, and the inherent complexity of human articulation. We introduce SKEL-CF, a coarse-to-fine framework for SKEL parameter estimation. SKEL-CF employs a transformer-based encoder-decoder architecture, where the encoder predicts coarse camera and SKEL parameters, and the decoder progressively refines them in successive layers. To ensure anatomically consistent supervision, we convert the existing SMPL-based dataset 4DHuman into a SKEL-aligned version, 4DHuman-SKEL, providing high-quality training data for SKEL estimation. In addition, to mitigate depth and scale ambiguities, we explicitly incorporate camera modeling into the SKEL-CF pipeline and demonstrate its importance across diverse viewpoints. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed design. On the challenging MOYO dataset, SKEL-CF achieves 85.0 MPJPE / 51.4 PA-MPJPE, significantly outperforming the previous SKEL-based state-of-the-art HSMR (104.5 / 79.6). These results establish SKEL-CF as a scalable and anatomically faithful framework for human motion analysis, bridging the gap between computer vision and biomechanics. Our implementation is available on the project page: https://pokerman8.github.io/SKEL-CF/.

We present MAMMA, a markerless motion-capture pipeline that accurately recovers SMPL-X parameters from multi-view video of two-person interaction sequences. Traditional motion-capture systems rely on physical markers. Although they offer high accuracy, their requirements of specialized hardware, manual marker placement, and extensive post-processing make them costly and time-consuming. Recent learning-based methods attempt to overcome these limitations, but most are designed for single-person capture, rely on sparse keypoints, or struggle with occlusions and physical interactions. In this work, we introduce a method that predicts dense 2D contact-aware surface landmarks conditioned on segmentation masks, enabling person-specific correspondence estimation even under heavy occlusion. We employ a novel architecture that exploits learnable queries for each landmark. We demonstrate that our approach can handle complex person--person interaction and offers greater accuracy than existing methods. To train our network, we construct a large, synthetic multi-view dataset combining human motions from diverse sources, including extreme poses, hand motions, and close interactions. Our dataset yields high-variability synthetic sequences with rich body contact and occlusion, and includes SMPL-X ground-truth annotations with dense 2D landmarks. The result is a system capable of capturing human motion without the need for markers. Our approach offers competitive reconstruction quality compared to commercial marker-based motion-capture solutions, without the extensive manual cleanup. Finally, we address the absence of common benchmarks for dense-landmark prediction and markerless motion capture by introducing two evaluation settings built from real multi-view sequences. Our dataset is available in https://mamma.is.tue.mpg.de for research purposes.

Monocular dynamic video reconstruction faces significant challenges in dynamic human scenes due to geometric inconsistencies and resolution degradation issues. Existing methods lack 3D human structural understanding, producing geometrically inconsistent results with distorted limb proportions and unnatural human-object fusion, while memory-constrained downsampling causes human boundary drift toward background geometry. To address these limitations, we propose to incorporate hybrid geometric priors that combine SMPL human body models with monocular depth estimation. Our approach leverages structured human priors to maintain surface consistency while capturing fine-grained geometric details in human regions. We introduce HuPrior3R, featuring a hierarchical pipeline with refinement components that processes full-resolution images for overall scene geometry, then applies strategic cropping and cross-attention fusion for human-specific detail enhancement. The method integrates SMPL priors through a Feature Fusion Module to ensure geometrically plausible reconstruction while preserving fine-grained human boundaries. Extensive experiments on TUM Dynamics and GTA-IM datasets demonstrate superior performance in dynamic human reconstruction.

We present Human3R, a unified, feed-forward framework for online 4D human-scene reconstruction, in the world frame, from casually captured monocular videos. Unlike previous approaches that rely on multi-stage pipelines, iterative contact-aware refinement between humans and scenes, and heavy dependencies, e.g., human detection, depth estimation, and SLAM pre-processing, Human3R jointly recovers global multi-person SMPL-X bodies ("everyone"), dense 3D scene ("everywhere"), and camera trajectories in a single forward pass ("all-at-once"). Our method builds upon the 4D online reconstruction model CUT3R, and uses parameter-efficient visual prompt tuning, to strive to preserve CUT3R's rich spatiotemporal priors, while enabling direct readout of multiple SMPL-X bodies. Human3R is a unified model that eliminates heavy dependencies and iterative refinement. After being trained on the relatively small-scale synthetic dataset BEDLAM for just one day on one GPU, it achieves superior performance with remarkable efficiency: it reconstructs multiple humans in a one-shot manner, along with 3D scenes, in one stage, at real-time speed (15 FPS) with a low memory footprint (8 GB). Extensive experiments demonstrate that Human3R delivers state-of-the-art or competitive performance across tasks, including global human motion estimation, local human mesh recovery, video depth estimation, and camera pose estimation, with a single unified model. We hope that Human3R will serve as a simple yet strong baseline, be easily extended for downstream applications.Code available in https://fanegg.github.io/Human3R

4D human sensing and modeling are fundamental tasks in vision and graphics with numerous applications. With the advances of new sensors and algorithms, there is an increasing demand for more versatile datasets. In this work, we contribute HuMMan, a large-scale multi-modal 4D human dataset with 1000 human subjects, 400k sequences and 60M frames. HuMMan has several appealing properties: 1) multi-modal data and annotations including color images, point clouds, keypoints, SMPL parameters, and textured meshes; 2) popular mobile device is included in the sensor suite; 3) a set of 500 actions, designed to cover fundamental movements; 4) multiple tasks such as action recognition, pose estimation, parametric human recovery, and textured mesh reconstruction are supported and evaluated. Extensive experiments on HuMMan voice the need for further study on challenges such as fine-grained action recognition, dynamic human mesh reconstruction, point cloud-based parametric human recovery, and cross-device domain gaps.

Great progress has been made in estimating 3D human pose and shape from images and video by training neural networks to directly regress the parameters of parametric human models like SMPL. However, existing body models have simplified kinematic structures that do not correspond to the true joint locations and articulations in the human skeletal system, limiting their potential use in biomechanics. On the other hand, methods for estimating biomechanically accurate skeletal motion typically rely on complex motion capture systems and expensive optimization methods. What is needed is a parametric 3D human model with a biomechanically accurate skeletal structure that can be easily posed. To that end, we develop SKEL, which re-rigs the SMPL body model with a biomechanics skeleton. To enable this, we need training data of skeletons inside SMPL meshes in diverse poses. We build such a dataset by optimizing biomechanically accurate skeletons inside SMPL meshes from AMASS sequences. We then learn a regressor from SMPL mesh vertices to the optimized joint locations and bone rotations. Finally, we re-parametrize the SMPL mesh with the new kinematic parameters. The resulting SKEL model is animatable like SMPL but with fewer, and biomechanically-realistic, degrees of freedom. We show that SKEL has more biomechanically accurate joint locations than SMPL, and the bones fit inside the body surface better than previous methods. By fitting SKEL to SMPL meshes we are able to "upgrade" existing human pose and shape datasets to include biomechanical parameters. SKEL provides a new tool to enable biomechanics in the wild, while also providing vision and graphics researchers with a better constrained and more realistic model of human articulation. The model, code, and data are available for research at https://skel.is.tue.mpg.de..

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Parametric verification of linear temporal properties for stochastic models can be expressed as computing the satisfaction probability of a certain property as a function of the parameters of the model. Smoothed model checking (smMC) aims at inferring the satisfaction function over the entire parameter space from a limited set of observations obtained via simulation. As observations are costly and noisy, smMC is framed as a Bayesian inference problem so that the estimates have an additional quantification of the uncertainty. In smMC the authors use Gaussian Processes (GP), inferred by means of the Expectation Propagation algorithm. This approach provides accurate reconstructions with statistically sound quantification of the uncertainty. However, it inherits the well-known scalability issues of GP. In this paper, we exploit recent advances in probabilistic machine learning to push this limitation forward, making Bayesian inference of smMC scalable to larger datasets and enabling its application to models with high dimensional parameter spaces. We propose Stochastic Variational Smoothed Model Checking (SV-smMC), a solution that exploits stochastic variational inference (SVI) to approximate the posterior distribution of the smMC problem. The strength and flexibility of SVI make SV-smMC applicable to two alternative probabilistic models: Gaussian Processes (GP) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN). The core ingredient of SVI is a stochastic gradient-based optimization that makes inference easily parallelizable and that enables GPU acceleration. In this paper, we compare the performances of smMC against those of SV-smMC by looking at the scalability, the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the reconstructed satisfaction function.

The SIML (abbreviation of Separating Information Maximal Likelihood) method, has been introduced by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato and their collaborators to estimate the integrated volatility of high-frequency data that is assumed to be an It\^o process but with so-called microstructure noise. The SIML estimator turned out to share many properties with the estimator introduced by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino. The present paper establishes the consistency and the asymptotic normality under a general sampling scheme but without microstructure noise. Specifically, a fast convergence shown for Malliavin--Mancino estimator by E. Clement and A. Gloter is also established for the SIML estimator.

3D human shape reconstruction under severe occlusion due to human-object or human-human interaction is a challenging problem. Parametric models i.e., SMPL(-X), which are based on the statistics across human shapes, can represent whole human body shapes but are limited to minimally-clothed human shapes. Implicit-function-based methods extract features from the parametric models to employ prior knowledge of human bodies and can capture geometric details such as clothing and hair. However, they often struggle to handle misaligned parametric models and inpaint occluded regions given a single RGB image. In this work, we propose a novel pipeline, MHCDIFF, Multi-hypotheses Conditioned Point Cloud Diffusion, composed of point cloud diffusion conditioned on probabilistic distributions for pixel-aligned detailed 3D human reconstruction under occlusion. Compared to previous implicit-function-based methods, the point cloud diffusion model can capture the global consistent features to generate the occluded regions, and the denoising process corrects the misaligned SMPL meshes. The core of MHCDIFF is extracting local features from multiple hypothesized SMPL(-X) meshes and aggregating the set of features to condition the diffusion model. In the experiments on CAPE and MultiHuman datasets, the proposed method outperforms various SOTA methods based on SMPL, implicit functions, point cloud diffusion, and their combined, under synthetic and real occlusions. Our code is publicly available at https://donghwankim0101.github.io/projects/mhcdiff/ .

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

We present SmolTulu-1.7b-Instruct, referenced in this report as SmolTulu-DPO-1130, an instruction-tuned language model that adapts AllenAI's Tulu 3 post-training pipeline to enhance Huggingface's SmolLM2-1.7B base model. Through comprehensive empirical analysis using a 135M parameter model, we demonstrate that the relationship between learning rate and batch size significantly impacts model performance in a task-dependent manner. Our findings reveal a clear split: reasoning tasks like ARC and GSM8K benefit from higher learning rate to batch size ratios, while pattern recognition tasks such as HellaSwag and IFEval show optimal performance with lower ratios. These insights informed the development of SmolTulu, which achieves state-of-the-art performance among sub-2B parameter models on instruction following, scoring 67.7% on IFEval (Delta11%), and mathematical reasoning with 51.6% on GSM8K (Delta3.4%), with an alternate version achieving scoring 57.1% on ARC (Delta5.4%). We release our model, training recipes, and ablation studies to facilitate further research in efficient model alignment, demonstrating that careful adaptation of optimization dynamics can help bridge the capability gap between small and large language models.

One of the major limits of kernel ridge regression (KRR) is that storing and manipulating the kernel matrix K_n for n samples requires O(n^2) space, which rapidly becomes unfeasible for large n. Nystrom approximations reduce the space complexity to O(nm) by sampling m columns from K_n. Uniform sampling preserves KRR accuracy (up to epsilon) only when m is proportional to the maximum degree of freedom of K_n, which may require O(n) columns for datasets with high coherence. Sampling columns according to their ridge leverage scores (RLS) gives accurate Nystrom approximations with m proportional to the effective dimension, but computing exact RLS also requires O(n^2) space. (Calandriello et al. 2016) propose INK-Estimate, an algorithm that processes the dataset incrementally and updates RLS, effective dimension, and Nystrom approximations on-the-fly. Its space complexity scales with the effective dimension but introduces a dependency on the largest eigenvalue of K_n, which in the worst case is O(n). In this paper we introduce SQUEAK, a new algorithm that builds on INK-Estimate but uses unnormalized RLS. As a consequence, the algorithm is simpler, does not need to estimate the effective dimension for normalization, and achieves a space complexity that is only a constant factor worse than exact RLS sampling.

To overcome the overparameterized problem in Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs), pruning is widely used as a simple and straightforward compression method by directly removing unimportant weights. Previous first-order methods successfully compress PLMs to extremely high sparsity with little performance drop. These methods, such as movement pruning, use first-order information to prune PLMs while fine-tuning the remaining weights. In this work, we argue fine-tuning is redundant for first-order pruning, since first-order pruning is sufficient to converge PLMs to downstream tasks without fine-tuning. Under this motivation, we propose Static Model Pruning (SMP), which only uses first-order pruning to adapt PLMs to downstream tasks while achieving the target sparsity level. In addition, we also design a new masking function and training objective to further improve SMP. Extensive experiments at various sparsity levels show SMP has significant improvements over first-order and zero-order methods. Unlike previous first-order methods, SMP is also applicable to low sparsity and outperforms zero-order methods. Meanwhile, SMP is more parameter efficient than other methods due to it does not require fine-tuning.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

Even after fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, large language models (LLMs) can be difficult, if not impossible, to control reliably with prompts alone. We propose a new inference-time approach to enforcing syntactic and semantic constraints on the outputs of LLMs, called sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) steering. The key idea is to specify language generation tasks as posterior inference problems in a class of discrete probabilistic sequence models, and replace standard decoding with sequential Monte Carlo inference. For a computational cost similar to that of beam search, SMC can steer LLMs to solve diverse tasks, including infilling, generation under syntactic constraints, and prompt intersection. To facilitate experimentation with SMC steering, we present a probabilistic programming library, LLaMPPL (https://github.com/probcomp/hfppl), for concisely specifying new generation tasks as language model probabilistic programs, and automating steering of LLaMA-family Transformers.

In the domain of semantic parsing, significant progress has been achieved in Text-to-SQL and question-answering tasks, both of which focus on extracting information from data sources in their native formats. However, the inherent constraints of their formal meaning representations, such as SQL programming language or basic logical forms, hinder their ability to analyze data from various perspectives, such as conducting statistical analyses. To address this limitation and inspire research in this field, we design SIGMA, a new dataset for Text-to-Code semantic parsing with statistical analysis. SIGMA comprises 6000 questions with corresponding Python code labels, spanning across 160 databases. Half of the questions involve query types, which return information in its original format, while the remaining 50% are statistical analysis questions, which perform statistical operations on the data. The Python code labels in our dataset cover 4 types of query types and 40 types of statistical analysis patterns. We evaluated the SIGMA dataset using three different baseline models: LGESQL, SmBoP, and SLSQL. The experimental results show that the LGESQL model with ELECTRA outperforms all other models, achieving 83.37% structure accuracy. In terms of execution accuracy, the SmBoP model, when combined with GraPPa and T5, reaches 76.38%.

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection of variational objectives and gradient estimators, which are implemented monolithically (and without formal correctness arguments) in PPL backends. In this paper, we propose a more modular approach to supporting variational inference in PPLs, based on compositional program transformation. In our approach, variational objectives are expressed as programs, that may employ first-class constructs for computing densities of and expected values under user-defined models and variational families. We then transform these programs systematically into unbiased gradient estimators for optimizing the objectives they define. Our design enables modular reasoning about many interacting concerns, including automatic differentiation, density accumulation, tracing, and the application of unbiased gradient estimation strategies. Additionally, relative to existing support for VI in PPLs, our design increases expressiveness along three axes: (1) it supports an open-ended set of user-defined variational objectives, rather than a fixed menu of options; (2) it supports a combinatorial space of gradient estimation strategies, many not automated by today's PPLs; and (3) it supports a broader class of models and variational families, because it supports constructs for approximate marginalization and normalization (previously introduced only for Monte Carlo inference). We implement our approach in an extension to the Gen probabilistic programming system (genjax.vi, implemented in JAX), and evaluate on several deep generative modeling tasks, showing minimal performance overhead vs. hand-coded implementations and performance competitive with well-established open-source PPLs.

Large multi-modal models (LMMs) exhibit remarkable performance across numerous tasks. However, generalist LMMs often suffer from performance degradation when tuned over a large collection of tasks. Recent research suggests that Mixture of Experts (MoE) architectures are useful for instruction tuning, but for LMMs of parameter size around O(50-100B), the prohibitive cost of replicating and storing the expert models severely limits the number of experts we can use. We propose Omni-SMoLA, an architecture that uses the Soft MoE approach to (softly) mix many multimodal low rank experts, and avoids introducing a significant number of new parameters compared to conventional MoE models. The core intuition here is that the large model provides a foundational backbone, while different lightweight experts residually learn specialized knowledge, either per-modality or multimodally. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the SMoLA approach helps improve the generalist performance across a broad range of generative vision-and-language tasks, achieving new SoTA generalist performance that often matches or outperforms single specialized LMM baselines, as well as new SoTA specialist performance.

Model-based human pose estimation is currently approached through two different paradigms. Optimization-based methods fit a parametric body model to 2D observations in an iterative manner, leading to accurate image-model alignments, but are often slow and sensitive to the initialization. In contrast, regression-based methods, that use a deep network to directly estimate the model parameters from pixels, tend to provide reasonable, but not pixel accurate, results while requiring huge amounts of supervision. In this work, instead of investigating which approach is better, our key insight is that the two paradigms can form a strong collaboration. A reasonable, directly regressed estimate from the network can initialize the iterative optimization making the fitting faster and more accurate. Similarly, a pixel accurate fit from iterative optimization can act as strong supervision for the network. This is the core of our proposed approach SPIN (SMPL oPtimization IN the loop). The deep network initializes an iterative optimization routine that fits the body model to 2D joints within the training loop, and the fitted estimate is subsequently used to supervise the network. Our approach is self-improving by nature, since better network estimates can lead the optimization to better solutions, while more accurate optimization fits provide better supervision for the network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in different settings, where 3D ground truth is scarce, or not available, and we consistently outperform the state-of-the-art model-based pose estimation approaches by significant margins. The project website with videos, results, and code can be found at https://seas.upenn.edu/~nkolot/projects/spin.

Satisfiability Modulo Counting (SMC) is a recently proposed general language to reason about problems integrating statistical and symbolic Artificial Intelligence. An SMC problem is an extended SAT problem in which the truth values of a few Boolean variables are determined by probabilistic inference. Approximate solvers may return solutions that violate constraints. Directly integrating available SAT solvers and probabilistic inference solvers gives exact solutions but results in slow performance because of many back-and-forth invocations of both solvers. We propose KOCO-SMC, an integrated exact SMC solver that efficiently tracks lower and upper bounds in the probabilistic inference process. It enhances computational efficiency by enabling early estimation of probabilistic inference using only partial variable assignments, whereas existing methods require full variable assignments. In the experiment, we compare KOCO-SMC with currently available approximate and exact SMC solvers on large-scale datasets and real-world applications. The proposed KOCO-SMC finds exact solutions with much less time.

With local differential privacy (LDP), users can privatize their data and thus guarantee privacy properties before transmitting it to the server (a.k.a. the aggregator). One primary objective of LDP is frequency (or histogram) estimation, in which the aggregator estimates the number of users for each possible value. In practice, when a study with rich content on a population is desired, the interest is in the multiple attributes of the population, that is to say, in multidimensional data (d geq 2). However, contrary to the problem of frequency estimation of a single attribute (the majority of the works), the multidimensional aspect imposes to pay particular attention to the privacy budget. This one can indeed grow extremely quickly due to the composition theorem. To the authors' knowledge, two solutions seem to stand out for this task: 1) splitting the privacy budget for each attribute, i.e., send each value with fracε{d}-LDP (Spl), and 2) random sampling a single attribute and spend all the privacy budget to send it with ε-LDP (Smp). Although Smp adds additional sampling error, it has proven to provide higher data utility than the former Spl solution. However, we argue that aggregators (who are also seen as attackers) are aware of the sampled attribute and its LDP value, which is protected by a "less strict" e^ε probability bound (rather than e^{ε/d}). This way, we propose a solution named Random Sampling plus Fake Data (RS+FD), which allows creating uncertainty over the sampled attribute by generating fake data for each non-sampled attribute; RS+FD further benefits from amplification by sampling. We theoretically and experimentally validate our proposed solution on both synthetic and real-world datasets to show that RS+FD achieves nearly the same or better utility than the state-of-the-art Smp solution.

Stochastic gradient descent method and its variants constitute the core optimization algorithms that achieve good convergence rates for solving machine learning problems. These rates are obtained especially when these algorithms are fine-tuned for the application at hand. Although this tuning process can require large computational costs, recent work has shown that these costs can be reduced by line search methods that iteratively adjust the stepsize. We propose an alternative approach to stochastic line search by using a new algorithm based on forward step model building. This model building step incorporates second-order information that allows adjusting not only the stepsize but also the search direction. Noting that deep learning model parameters come in groups (layers of tensors), our method builds its model and calculates a new step for each parameter group. This novel diagonalization approach makes the selected step lengths adaptive. We provide convergence rate analysis, and experimentally show that the proposed algorithm achieves faster convergence and better generalization in well-known test problems. More precisely, SMB requires less tuning, and shows comparable performance to other adaptive methods.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Guided by the belief of the scaling law, large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in recent years. However, scaling law only gives a qualitative estimation of loss, which is influenced by various factors such as model architectures, data distributions, tokenizers, and computation precision. Thus, estimating the real performance of LLMs with different training settings rather than loss may be quite useful in practical development. In this article, we present an empirical equation named "Performance Law" to directly predict the MMLU score of an LLM, which is a widely used metric to indicate the general capability of LLMs in real-world conversations and applications. Based on only a few key hyperparameters of the LLM architecture and the size of training data, we obtain a quite accurate MMLU prediction of various LLMs with diverse sizes and architectures developed by different organizations in different years. Performance law can be used to guide the choice of LLM architecture and the effective allocation of computational resources without extensive experiments.

The GPT-4 technical report suggests that downstream performance can be predicted from pre-training signals, but offers little methodological detail on how to quantify this. This work address this gap by modeling knowledge retention, the capacity of a pre-trained language model to memorize factual information from its corpus, and introduce a principled method to estimate it prior to training. We propose Size-dependent Mutual Information (SMI), an information-theoretic predictor that integrates knowledge frequency, knowledge specificity, and model size to forecast closed-book question answering (QA) accuracy. SMI is validated through large-scale document retrieval over the disclosed pre-training corpora of 21 public and 3 custom models, combined with a robust multi-template QA evaluation. Experiments show that SMI significantly outperforms repetition-based baselines and achieves R^2 > 0.7 in predicting QA accuracy for models above 1B parameters, without additional training. The analysis further reveals diminishing returns from scaling data and model size and provides evidence for an intrinsic upper bound on knowledge retention achievable by pre-training alone, motivating retrieval and other augmentation strategies.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) is a powerful technique for solving large-scale Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), particularly those with decomposable structures, such as vehicle routing or unit commitment problems. By relaxing the coupling constraints, LR enables parallel subproblem solving and often yields tighter dual bounds than standard linear programming relaxations, which is crucial for efficient branch-and-bound pruning. While recent empirical work has shown promising results using machine learning to predict these multipliers, a theoretical understanding of such methods remains an open question. In this work, we bridge this gap by analyzing the problem of learning LR through the lens of Data-driven Algorithm Design, i.e., a statistical learning problem over a distribution of problem instances. Our contributions are as follows: first, we derive a generalization bound of O(s^{1.5}/N) for the learned multipliers, where s is the number of coupling constraints and N is the sample size. Second, we provide a minimax lower-bound of Ω(s/N), proving that a linear dependency is unavoidable. Third, we constructively close this theoretical gap by proving that Stochastic Gradient Ascent (SGA) with averaging achieves the minimax optimal rate Θ(s/N). Finally, we extend our framework to the learning-to-warm-start setting, proving that it achieves a fast, minimax-optimal rate of Θ(s/N) and establishing a theoretical advantage over direct multiplier prediction.

Deploying LLMs raises two coupled challenges: (1) monitoring - estimating where a model underperforms as traffic and domains drift - and (2) improvement - prioritizing data acquisition to close the largest performance gaps. We test whether an inference-time signal can estimate slice-level accuracy under domain shift. For each response, we compute an output-entropy profile from final-layer next-token probabilities (from top-k logprobs) and summarize it with eleven statistics. A lightweight classifier predicts instance correctness, and averaging predicted probabilities yields a domain-level accuracy estimate. We evaluate on ten STEM reasoning benchmarks with exhaustive train/test compositions (k in {1,2,3,4}; all "10 choose k" combinations), across nine LLMs from six families (3B-20B). Estimates often track held-out benchmark accuracy, and several models show near-monotonic ordering of domains. Output-entropy profiles are thus an accessible signal for scalable monitoring and for targeting data acquisition.

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d=28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.5% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.8% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.93.

Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have received much attention for their impressive capabilities. The evaluation of MLLMs is becoming critical to analyzing attributes of MLLMs and providing valuable insights. However, current benchmarks overlook the problem of prompt sensitivity - minor prompt variations may lead to significant performance fluctuations. Thus, inappropriate prompts may obscure the models' capabilities, underestimating the models' performance. Moreover, different models have different preferences for different prompts, and thus, using the same prompt for all models will cause evaluation bias. This paper analyzes this deficiency in existing benchmarks and further introduces a new evaluation framework named TP-Eval, which introduces a prompt customization method to reduce evaluation biases and tap models' potential. TP-Eval will rewrite the original prompts to different customized prompts for different models. In particular, we propose some well-designed modules for prompt customization tailored to the scenario of MLLM evaluation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to uncovering models' capabilities, and TP-Eval should benefit the community in developing more comprehensive and convincing MLLM evaluation benchmarks.

The field of efficient Large Language Model (LLM) inference is rapidly evolving, presenting a unique blend of opportunities and challenges. Although the field has expanded and is vibrant, there hasn't been a concise framework that analyzes the various methods of LLM Inference to provide a clear understanding of this domain. Our survey stands out from traditional literature reviews by not only summarizing the current state of research but also by introducing a framework based on roofline model for systematic analysis of LLM inference techniques. This framework identifies the bottlenecks when deploying LLMs on hardware devices and provides a clear understanding of practical problems, such as why LLMs are memory-bound, how much memory and computation they need, and how to choose the right hardware. We systematically collate the latest advancements in efficient LLM inference, covering crucial areas such as model compression (e.g., Knowledge Distillation and Quantization), algorithm improvements (e.g., Early Exit and Mixture-of-Expert), and both hardware and system-level enhancements. Our survey stands out by analyzing these methods with roofline model, helping us understand their impact on memory access and computation. This distinctive approach not only showcases the current research landscape but also delivers valuable insights for practical implementation, positioning our work as an indispensable resource for researchers new to the field as well as for those seeking to deepen their understanding of efficient LLM deployment. The analyze tool, LLM-Viewer, is open-sourced.

System logs are crucial for monitoring and diagnosing modern computing infrastructure, but their scale and complexity require reliable and efficient automated interpretation. Since severity levels are predefined metadata in system log messages, having a model merely classify them offers limited standalone practical value, revealing little about its underlying ability to interpret system logs. We argue that severity classification is more informative when treated as a benchmark for probing runtime log comprehension rather than as an end task. Using real-world journalctl data from Linux production servers, we evaluate nine small language models (SLMs) and small reasoning language models (SRLMs) under zero-shot, few-shot, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) prompting. The results reveal strong stratification. Qwen3-4B achieves the highest accuracy at 95.64% with RAG, while Gemma3-1B improves from 20.25% under few-shot prompting to 85.28% with RAG. Notably, the tiny Qwen3-0.6B reaches 88.12% accuracy despite weak performance without retrieval. In contrast, several SRLMs, including Qwen3-1.7B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, degrade substantially when paired with RAG. Efficiency measurements further separate models: most Gemma and Llama variants complete inference in under 1.2 seconds per log, whereas Phi-4-Mini-Reasoning exceeds 228 seconds per log while achieving <10% accuracy. These findings suggest that (1) architectural design, (2) training objectives, and (3) the ability to integrate retrieved context under strict output constraints jointly determine performance. By emphasizing small, deployable models, this benchmark aligns with real-time requirements of digital twin (DT) systems and shows that severity classification serves as a lens for evaluating model competence and real-time deployability, with implications for root cause analysis (RCA) and broader DT integration.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) relies on the powerful LLM to perform multimodal tasks, showing amazing emergent abilities in recent studies, such as writing poems based on an image. However, it is difficult for these case studies to fully reflect the performance of MLLM, lacking a comprehensive evaluation. In this paper, we fill in this blank, presenting the first MLLM Evaluation benchmark MME. It measures both perception and cognition abilities on a total of 14 subtasks. In order to avoid data leakage that may arise from direct use of public datasets for evaluation, the annotations of instruction-answer pairs are all manually designed. The concise instruction design allows us to fairly compare MLLMs, instead of struggling in prompt engineering. Besides, with such an instruction, we can also easily carry out quantitative statistics. A total of 12 advanced MLLMs are comprehensively evaluated on our MME, which not only suggests that existing MLLMs still have a large room for improvement, but also reveals the potential directions for the subsequent model optimization.

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is a fundamental tool for modeling combinatorial optimization problems. Recently, a growing body of research has used machine learning to accelerate MILP solving. Despite the increasing popularity of this approach, there is a lack of a common repository that provides distributions of similar MILP instances across different domains, at different hardness levels, with standardized test sets. In this paper, we introduce Distributional MIPLIB, a multi-domain library of problem distributions for advancing ML-guided MILP methods. We curate MILP distributions from existing work in this area as well as real-world problems that have not been used, and classify them into different hardness levels. It will facilitate research in this area by enabling comprehensive evaluation on diverse and realistic domains. We empirically illustrate the benefits of using Distributional MIPLIB as a research vehicle in two ways. We evaluate the performance of ML-guided variable branching on previously unused distributions to identify potential areas for improvement. Moreover, we propose to learn branching policies from a mix of distributions, demonstrating that mixed distributions achieve better performance compared to homogeneous distributions when there is limited data and generalize well to larger instances. The dataset is publicly available at https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/distributional-miplib/home.

Machine learning has been highly successful in data-intensive applications but is often hampered when the data set is small. Recently, Few-Shot Learning (FSL) is proposed to tackle this problem. Using prior knowledge, FSL can rapidly generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information. In this paper, we conduct a thorough survey to fully understand FSL. Starting from a formal definition of FSL, we distinguish FSL from several relevant machine learning problems. We then point out that the core issue in FSL is that the empirical risk minimized is unreliable. Based on how prior knowledge can be used to handle this core issue, we categorize FSL methods from three perspectives: (i) data, which uses prior knowledge to augment the supervised experience; (ii) model, which uses prior knowledge to reduce the size of the hypothesis space; and (iii) algorithm, which uses prior knowledge to alter the search for the best hypothesis in the given hypothesis space. With this taxonomy, we review and discuss the pros and cons of each category. Promising directions, in the aspects of the FSL problem setups, techniques, applications and theories, are also proposed to provide insights for future research.

Automated detection of defects in Printed Circuit Board (PCB) manufacturing using Solder Paste Inspection (SPI) and Automated Optical Inspection (AOI) machines can help improve operational efficiency and significantly reduce the need for manual intervention. In this paper, using SPI-extracted features of 6 million pins, we demonstrate a data-centric approach to train Machine Learning (ML) models to detect PCB defects at three stages of PCB manufacturing. The 6 million PCB pins correspond to 2 million components that belong to 15,387 PCBs. Using a base extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) ML model, we iterate on the data pre-processing step to improve detection performance. Combining pin-level SPI features using component and PCB IDs, we developed training instances also at the component and PCB level. This allows the ML model to capture any inter-pin, inter-component, or spatial effects that may not be apparent at the pin level. Models are trained at the pin, component, and PCB levels, and the detection results from the different models are combined to identify defective components.

Data fields sampled on irregularly spaced points arise in many applications in the sciences and engineering. For regular grids, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been successfully used to gaining benefits from weight sharing and invariances. We generalize CNNs by introducing methods for data on unstructured point clouds based on Generalized Moving Least Squares (GMLS). GMLS is a non-parametric technique for estimating linear bounded functionals from scattered data, and has recently been used in the literature for solving partial differential equations. By parameterizing the GMLS estimator, we obtain learning methods for operators with unstructured stencils. In GMLS-Nets the necessary calculations are local, readily parallelizable, and the estimator is supported by a rigorous approximation theory. We show how the framework may be used for unstructured physical data sets to perform functional regression to identify associated differential operators and to regress quantities of interest. The results suggest the architectures to be an attractive foundation for data-driven model development in scientific machine learning applications.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an alpha in (0,1] fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains ge n i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any nge tilde Omega(1/alpha) returns a list of size mathcal O(1/alpha^2) such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only mathcal{O}(d/alpha^2) genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound diakonikolas2021statistical for the non-batch setting.

LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a cornerstone technique for evaluating large language models by leveraging LLM reasoning to score prompt-response pairs. Since LLM judgments are stochastic, practitioners commonly query each pair multiple times to estimate mean scores accurately. This raises a critical challenge: given a fixed computational budget B, how to optimally allocate queries across K prompt-response pairs to minimize estimation error? % We present a principled variance-adaptive approach leveraging multi-armed bandit theory and concentration inequalities. Our method dynamically allocates queries based on estimated score variances, concentrating resources where uncertainty is highest. Further, our algorithm is shown to achieve a worst-case score-estimation error of Oleft(frac{sum_{i=1^K σ_i^2}{B}}right), σ_i^2 being the unknown score variance for pair i in [K] with near-optimal budget allocation. % Experiments on Summarize-From-Feedback and HelpSteer2 demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms uniform allocation, reducing worst-case estimation error while maintaining identical budgets. Our work establishes a theoretical foundation for efficient LLM evaluation with practical implications for AI safety, model alignment, and automated assessment at scale.

Sparse roadmaps are important to compactly represent state spaces, to determine problems to be infeasible and to terminate in finite time. However, sparse roadmaps do not scale well to high-dimensional planning problems. In prior work, we showed improved planning performance on high-dimensional planning problems by using multilevel abstractions to simplify state spaces. In this work, we generalize sparse roadmaps to multilevel abstractions by developing a novel algorithm, the sparse multilevel roadmap planner (SMLR). To this end, we represent multilevel abstractions using the language of fiber bundles, and generalize sparse roadmap planners by using the concept of restriction sampling with visibility regions. We argue SMLR to be probabilistically complete and asymptotically near-optimal by inheritance from sparse roadmap planners. In evaluations, we outperform sparse roadmap planners on challenging planning problems, in particular problems which are high-dimensional, contain narrow passages or are infeasible. We thereby demonstrate sparse multilevel roadmaps as an efficient tool for feasible and infeasible high-dimensional planning problems.

Most kernel-based methods, such as kernel or Gaussian process regression, kernel PCA, ICA, or k-means clustering, do not scale to large datasets, because constructing and storing the kernel matrix K_n requires at least O(n^2) time and space for n samples. Recent works show that sampling points with replacement according to their ridge leverage scores (RLS) generates small dictionaries of relevant points with strong spectral approximation guarantees for K_n. The drawback of RLS-based methods is that computing exact RLS requires constructing and storing the whole kernel matrix. In this paper, we introduce SQUEAK, a new algorithm for kernel approximation based on RLS sampling that sequentially processes the dataset, storing a dictionary which creates accurate kernel matrix approximations with a number of points that only depends on the effective dimension d_{eff}(γ) of the dataset. Moreover since all the RLS estimations are efficiently performed using only the small dictionary, SQUEAK is the first RLS sampling algorithm that never constructs the whole matrix K_n, runs in linear time mathcal{O}(nd_{eff}(γ)^3) w.r.t. n, and requires only a single pass over the dataset. We also propose a parallel and distributed version of SQUEAK that linearly scales across multiple machines, achieving similar accuracy in as little as mathcal{O}(log(n)d_{eff}(γ)^3) time.

Reconstructing realistic 3D human models from monocular images has significant applications in creative industries, human-computer interfaces, and healthcare. We base our work on 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), a scene representation composed of a mixture of Gaussians. Predicting such mixtures for a human from a single input image is challenging, as it is a non-uniform density (with a many-to-one relationship with input pixels) with strict physical constraints. At the same time, it needs to be flexible to accommodate a variety of clothes and poses. Our key observation is that the vertices of standardized human meshes (such as SMPL) can provide an adequate density and approximate initial position for Gaussians. We can then train a transformer model to jointly predict comparatively small adjustments to these positions, as well as the other Gaussians' attributes and the SMPL parameters. We show empirically that this combination (using only multi-view supervision) can achieve fast inference of 3D human models from a single image without test-time optimization, expensive diffusion models, or 3D points supervision. We also show that it can improve 3D pose estimation by better fitting human models that account for clothes and other variations. The code is available on the project website https://abdullahamdi.com/gst/ .

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the losses. In machine learning, such a risk measure is useful to train more robust models. Although the stochastic subgradient method (SGM) is a natural choice for minimizing the CVaR objective, we show that our stochastic prox-linear (SPL+) algorithm can better exploit the structure of the objective, while still providing a convenient closed form update. Our SPL+ method also adapts to the scaling of the loss function, which allows for easier tuning. We then specialize a general convergence theorem for SPL+ to our setting, and show that it allows for a wider selection of step sizes compared to SGM. We support this theoretical finding experimentally.

We consider the problem of estimating (diagonally dominant) M-matrices as precision matrices in Gaussian graphical models. These models exhibit intriguing properties, such as the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator with merely two observations for M-matrices lauritzen2019maximum,slawski2015estimation and even one observation for diagonally dominant M-matrices truell2021maximum. We propose an adaptive multiple-stage estimation method that refines the estimate by solving a weighted ell_1-regularized problem at each stage. Furthermore, we develop a unified framework based on the gradient projection method to solve the regularized problem, incorporating distinct projections to handle the constraints of M-matrices and diagonally dominant M-matrices. A theoretical analysis of the estimation error is provided. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in precision matrix estimation and graph edge identification, as evidenced by synthetic and financial time-series data sets.

Most popular benchmarks for comparing LLMs rely on a limited set of prompt templates, which may not fully capture the LLMs' abilities and can affect the reproducibility of results on leaderboards. Many recent works empirically verify prompt sensitivity and advocate for changes in LLM evaluation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the performance distribution across many prompt variants instead of finding a single prompt to evaluate with. We introduce PromptEval, a method for estimating performance across a large set of prompts borrowing strength across prompts and examples to produce accurate estimates under practical evaluation budgets. The resulting distribution can be used to obtain performance quantiles to construct various robust performance metrics (e.g., top 95% quantile or median). We prove that PromptEval consistently estimates the performance distribution and demonstrate its efficacy empirically on three prominent LLM benchmarks: MMLU, BIG-bench Hard, and LMentry. For example, PromptEval can accurately estimate performance quantiles across 100 prompt templates on MMLU with a budget equivalent to two single-prompt evaluations. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/felipemaiapolo/prompt-eval.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools for complex Operations Research (OR) in automating optimization modeling. However, current methodologies heavily rely on prompt engineering (e.g., multi-agent cooperation) with proprietary LLMs, raising data privacy concerns that could be prohibitive in industry applications. To tackle this issue, we propose training open-source LLMs for optimization modeling. We identify four critical requirements for the training dataset of OR LLMs, design and implement OR-Instruct, a semi-automated process for creating synthetic data tailored to specific requirements. We also introduce the IndustryOR benchmark, the first industrial benchmark for testing LLMs on solving real-world OR problems. We apply the data from OR-Instruct to various open-source LLMs of 7b size (termed as ORLMs), resulting in a significantly improved capability for optimization modeling. Our best-performing ORLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on the NL4OPT, MAMO, and IndustryOR benchmarks. Our code and data will be available at https://github.com/Cardinal-Operations/ORLM.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Existing multi-LLM collaboration systems often encounter scalability challenges when integrating new LLMs and tasks, leading to suboptimal performance. To address this, we propose SMCS, a Scalable Multi-LLM Collaboration System designed to effectively coordinate multiple open-source LLMs. The system consists of two core components: a Retrieval-based Prior Selection (RPS) module, which dynamically selects the most suitable LLMs for each input, and an Exploration-Exploitation-Driven Posterior Enhancement (EPE) module, which fosters response diversity and selects high-quality outputs through a hybrid scoring mechanism. Experiments on eight mainstream benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our system: by integrating fifteen open-source LLMs, SMCS outperforms prevailing closed-source LLMs, e.g., GPT-4.1(+5.36%) and GPT-o3-mini(+5.28%) across multiple tasks. Remarkably, it even exceeds the average of best results on different datasets with open-source LLMs (+2.86%), significantly advancing the empirical performance frontier of open-source collaboration. The code is released at https://github.com/magent4aci/SMCS.

Reconstructing detailed 3D human meshes from a single in-the-wild image remains a fundamental challenge in computer vision. Existing SMPLX-based methods often suffer from slow inference, produce only coarse body poses, and exhibit misalignments or unnatural artifacts in fine-grained regions such as the face and hands. These issues make current approaches difficult to apply to downstream tasks. To address these challenges, we propose PEAR-a fast and robust framework for pixel-aligned expressive human mesh recovery. PEAR explicitly tackles three major limitations of existing methods: slow inference, inaccurate localization of fine-grained human pose details, and insufficient facial expression capture. Specifically, to enable real-time SMPLX parameter inference, we depart from prior designs that rely on high resolution inputs or multi-branch architectures. Instead, we adopt a clean and unified ViT-based model capable of recovering coarse 3D human geometry. To compensate for the loss of fine-grained details caused by this simplified architecture, we introduce pixel-level supervision to optimize the geometry, significantly improving the reconstruction accuracy of fine-grained human details. To make this approach practical, we further propose a modular data annotation strategy that enriches the training data and enhances the robustness of the model. Overall, PEAR is a preprocessing-free framework that can simultaneously infer EHM-s (SMPLX and scaled-FLAME) parameters at over 100 FPS. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method achieves substantial improvements in pose estimation accuracy compared to previous SMPLX-based approaches. Project page: https://wujh2001.github.io/PEAR

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) with low-rank adaptaion (LoRA) is a cost-effective way to incorporate information from a specific dataset. However, it is often unclear how well the fine-tuned LLM will generalize, i.e., how well it will perform on unseen datasets. Methods have been proposed to improve generalization by optimizing with in-context prompts, or by using meta-learning to fine-tune LLMs. However, these methods are expensive in memory and computation, requiring either long-context prompts or saving copies of parameters and using second-order gradient updates. To address these challenges, we propose Amortized Bayesian Meta-Learning for LoRA (ABMLL). This method builds on amortized Bayesian meta-learning for smaller models, adapting this approach to LLMs while maintaining its computational efficiency. We reframe task-specific and global parameters in the context of LoRA and use a set of new hyperparameters to balance reconstruction accuracy and the fidelity of task-specific parameters to the global ones. ABMLL provides effective generalization and scales to large models such as Llama3-8B. Furthermore, as a result of using a Bayesian framework, ABMLL provides improved uncertainty quantification. We test ABMLL on Unified-QA and CrossFit datasets and find that it outperforms existing methods on these benchmarks in terms of both accuracy and expected calibration error.

With the rapid advancement of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), numerous evaluation benchmarks have emerged. However, comprehensive assessments of their performance across diverse industrial applications remain limited. In this paper, we introduce MME-Industry, a novel benchmark designed specifically for evaluating MLLMs in industrial settings.The benchmark encompasses 21 distinct domain, comprising 1050 question-answer pairs with 50 questions per domain. To ensure data integrity and prevent potential leakage from public datasets, all question-answer pairs were manually crafted and validated by domain experts. Besides, the benchmark's complexity is effectively enhanced by incorporating non-OCR questions that can be answered directly, along with tasks requiring specialized domain knowledge. Moreover, we provide both Chinese and English versions of the benchmark, enabling comparative analysis of MLLMs' capabilities across these languages. Our findings contribute valuable insights into MLLMs' practical industrial applications and illuminate promising directions for future model optimization research.

We revisit policy-gradient optimization for Large Language Models (LLMs) from a single-stream perspective. Prevailing group-based methods like GRPO reduce variance with on-the-fly baselines but suffer from critical flaws: frequent degenerate groups erase learning signals, and synchronization barriers hinder scalability. We introduce Single-stream Policy Optimization (SPO), which eliminates these issues by design. SPO replaces per-group baselines with a persistent, KL-adaptive value tracker and normalizes advantages globally across the batch, providing a stable, low-variance learning signal for every sample. Being group-free, SPO enables higher throughput and scales effectively in long-horizon or tool-integrated settings where generation times vary. Furthermore, the persistent value tracker naturally enables an adaptive curriculum via prioritized sampling. Experiments using Qwen3-8B show that SPO converges more smoothly and attains higher accuracy than GRPO, while eliminating computation wasted on degenerate groups. Ablation studies confirm that SPO's gains stem from its principled approach to baseline estimation and advantage normalization, offering a more robust and efficient path for LLM reasoning. Across five hard math benchmarks with Qwen3 8B, SPO improves the average maj@32 by +3.4 percentage points (pp) over GRPO, driven by substantial absolute point gains on challenging datasets, including +7.3 pp on BRUMO 25, +4.4 pp on AIME 25, +3.3 pp on HMMT 25, and achieves consistent relative gain in pass@k across the evaluated k values. SPO's success challenges the prevailing trend of adding incidental complexity to RL algorithms, highlighting a path where fundamental principles, not architectural workarounds, drive the next wave of progress in LLM reasoning.

Large language models (LLMs) offer an inexpensive yet powerful way to annotate text, but are often inconsistent when compared with experts. These errors can bias downstream estimates of population parameters such as regression coefficients and causal effects. To mitigate this bias, researchers have developed debiasing methods such as Design-based Supervised Learning (DSL) and Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI), which promise valid estimation by combining LLM annotations with a limited number of expensive expert annotations. Although these methods produce consistent estimates under theoretical assumptions, it is unknown how they compare in finite samples of sizes encountered in applied research. We make two contributions: First, we study how each method's performance scales with the number of expert annotations, highlighting regimes where LLM bias or limited expert labels significantly affect results. Second, we compare DSL and PPI across a range of tasks, finding that although both achieve low bias with large datasets, DSL often outperforms PPI on bias reduction and empirical efficiency, but its performance is less consistent across datasets. Our findings indicate that there is a bias-variance tradeoff at the level of debiasing methods, calling for more research on developing metrics for quantifying their efficiency in finite samples.

In this paper, we introduced a novel text-to-avatar generation method that separately generates the human body and the clothes and allows high-quality animation on the generated avatar. While recent advancements in text-to-avatar generation have yielded diverse human avatars from text prompts, these methods typically combine all elements-clothes, hair, and body-into a single 3D representation. Such an entangled approach poses challenges for downstream tasks like editing or animation. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel disentangled 3D avatar representation named Sequentially Offset-SMPL (SO-SMPL), building upon the SMPL model. SO-SMPL represents the human body and clothes with two separate meshes, but associates them with offsets to ensure the physical alignment between the body and the clothes. Then, we design an Score Distillation Sampling(SDS)-based distillation framework to generate the proposed SO-SMPL representation from text prompts. In comparison with existing text-to-avatar methods, our approach not only achieves higher exture and geometry quality and better semantic alignment with text prompts, but also significantly improves the visual quality of character animation, virtual try-on, and avatar editing. Our project page is at https://shanemankiw.github.io/SO-SMPL/.

The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

Process Reward Models (PRMs) emerge as a promising approach for process supervision in mathematical reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs), which aim to identify and mitigate intermediate errors in the reasoning processes. However, the development of effective PRMs faces significant challenges, particularly in data annotation and evaluation methodologies. In this paper, through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that commonly used Monte Carlo (MC) estimation-based data synthesis for PRMs typically yields inferior performance and generalization compared to LLM-as-a-judge and human annotation methods. MC estimation relies on completion models to evaluate current-step correctness, leading to inaccurate step verification. Furthermore, we identify potential biases in conventional Best-of-N (BoN) evaluation strategies for PRMs: (1) The unreliable policy models generate responses with correct answers but flawed processes, leading to a misalignment between the evaluation criteria of BoN and the PRM objectives of process verification. (2) The tolerance of PRMs of such responses leads to inflated BoN scores. (3) Existing PRMs have a significant proportion of minimum scores concentrated on the final answer steps, revealing the shift from process to outcome-based assessment in BoN Optimized PRMs. To address these challenges, we develop a consensus filtering mechanism that effectively integrates MC estimation with LLM-as-a-judge and advocates a more comprehensive evaluation framework that combines response-level and step-level metrics. Based on the mechanisms, we significantly improve both model performance and data efficiency in the BoN evaluation and the step-wise error identification task. Finally, we release a new state-of-the-art PRM that outperforms existing open-source alternatives and provides practical guidelines for future research in building process supervision models.

Conventional evaluation methods for multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) lack interpretability and are often insufficient to fully disclose significant capability gaps across models. To address this, we introduce AuditDM, an automated framework that actively discovers and rectifies MLLM failure modes by auditing their divergence. AuditDM fine-tunes an MLLM as an auditor via reinforcement learning to generate challenging questions and counterfactual images that maximize disagreement among target models. Once trained, the auditor uncovers diverse, interpretable exemplars that reveal model weaknesses and serve as annotation-free data for rectification. When applied to SoTA models like Gemma-3 and PaliGemma-2, AuditDM discovers more than 20 distinct failure types. Fine-tuning on these discoveries consistently improves all models across 16 benchmarks, and enables a 3B model to surpass its 28B counterpart. Our results suggest that as data scaling hits diminishing returns, targeted model auditing offers an effective path to model diagnosis and improvement.

Pruning large language models (LLMs) is a promising solution for reducing model sizes and computational complexity while preserving performance. Traditional layer-wise pruning methods often adopt a uniform sparsity approach across all layers, which leads to suboptimal performance due to the varying significance of individual transformer layers within the model not being accounted for. To this end, we propose the Shapley Value-based Non-Uniform Pruning (SV-NUP) method for LLMs. This approach quantifies the contribution of each transformer layer to the overall model performance, enabling the assignment of tailored pruning budgets to different layers to retain critical parameters. To further improve efficiency, we design the Sliding Window-based Shapley Value approximation method. It substantially reduces computational overhead compared to exact SV calculation methods. Extensive experiments on various LLMs including LLaMA-v1, LLaMA-v2 and OPT demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results reveal that non-uniform pruning significantly enhances the performance of pruned models. Notably, SV-NUP achieves a reduction in perplexity (PPL) of 18.01% and 19.55% on LLaMA-7B and LLaMA-13B, respectively, compared to SparseGPT at 70% sparsity.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the full training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a Neural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

Recent advancements have introduced machine learning frameworks to enhance the Branch and Bound (B\&B) branching policies for solving Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). These methods, primarily relying on imitation learning of Strong Branching, have shown superior performance. However, collecting expert samples for imitation learning, particularly for Strong Branching, is a time-consuming endeavor. To address this challenge, we propose Contrastive Learning with Augmented MILPs for Branching (CAMBranch), a framework that generates Augmented MILPs (AMILPs) by applying variable shifting to limited expert data from their original MILPs. This approach enables the acquisition of a considerable number of labeled expert samples. CAMBranch leverages both MILPs and AMILPs for imitation learning and employs contrastive learning to enhance the model's ability to capture MILP features, thereby improving the quality of branching decisions. Experimental results demonstrate that CAMBranch, trained with only 10\% of the complete dataset, exhibits superior performance. Ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of our method.

Despite the impressive performance of LLMs, their widespread adoption faces challenges due to substantial computational and memory requirements during inference. Recent advancements in model compression and system-level optimization methods aim to enhance LLM inference. This survey offers an overview of these methods, emphasizing recent developments. Through experiments on LLaMA(/2)-7B, we evaluate various compression techniques, providing practical insights for efficient LLM deployment in a unified setting. The empirical analysis on LLaMA(/2)-7B highlights the effectiveness of these methods. Drawing from survey insights, we identify current limitations and discuss potential future directions to improve LLM inference efficiency. We release the codebase to reproduce the results presented in this paper at https://github.com/nyunAI/Faster-LLM-Survey

Numerous capability and safety techniques of Large Language Models (LLMs), including RLHF, automated red-teaming, prompt engineering, and infilling, can be cast as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution defined by a given reward or potential function over the full sequence. In this work, we leverage the rich toolkit of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for these probabilistic inference problems. In particular, we use learned twist functions to estimate the expected future value of the potential at each timestep, which enables us to focus inference-time computation on promising partial sequences. We propose a novel contrastive method for learning the twist functions, and establish connections with the rich literature of soft reinforcement learning. As a complementary application of our twisted SMC framework, we present methods for evaluating the accuracy of language model inference techniques using novel bidirectional SMC bounds on the log partition function. These bounds can be used to estimate the KL divergence between the inference and target distributions in both directions. We apply our inference evaluation techniques to show that twisted SMC is effective for sampling undesirable outputs from a pretrained model (a useful component of harmlessness training and automated red-teaming), generating reviews with varied sentiment, and performing infilling tasks.

Many recent reasoning gains in large language models can be explained as distribution sharpening: biasing generation toward high-likelihood trajectories already supported by the pretrained model, rather than modifying its weights. A natural formalization is the sequence-level power distribution π_α(ymid x)propto p_θ(ymid x)^α (α>1), which concentrates mass on whole sequences instead of adjusting token-level temperature. Prior work shows that Metropolis--Hastings (MH) sampling from this distribution recovers strong reasoning performance, but at order-of-magnitude inference slowdowns. We introduce Power-SMC, a training-free Sequential Monte Carlo scheme that targets the same objective while remaining close to standard decoding latency. Power-SMC advances a small particle set in parallel, corrects importance weights token-by-token, and resamples when necessary, all within a single GPU-friendly batched decode. We prove that temperature τ=1/α is the unique prefix-only proposal minimizing incremental weight variance, interpret residual instability via prefix-conditioned Rényi entropies, and introduce an exponent-bridging schedule that improves particle stability without altering the target. On MATH500, Power-SMC matches or exceeds MH power sampling while reducing latency from 16--28times to 1.4--3.3times over baseline decoding. The code is available at https://github.com/ArminAzizi98/Power-SMC.

ML libraries, often written in architecture-specific programming languages (ASPLs) that target domain-specific architectures, are key to efficient ML systems. However, writing these high-performance ML libraries is challenging because it requires expert knowledge of ML algorithms and the ASPL. Large language models (LLMs), on the other hand, have shown general coding capabilities. However, challenges remain when using LLMs for generating ML libraries using ASPLs because 1) this task is complicated even for experienced human programmers and 2) there are limited code examples because of the esoteric and evolving nature of ASPLs. Therefore, LLMs need complex reasoning with limited data in order to complete this task. To address these challenges, we introduce an adaptive self-improvement agentic system. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of our system, we construct a benchmark of a typical ML library and generate ASPL code with both open and closed-source LLMs on this benchmark. Our results show improvements of up to 3.9times over a baseline single LLM.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Small Language Models (SLMs) have gained substantial attention due to their ability to execute diverse language tasks successfully while using fewer computer resources. These models are particularly ideal for deployment in limited environments, such as mobile devices, on-device processing, and edge systems. In this study, we present a complete assessment of SLMs, focussing on their design frameworks, training approaches, and techniques for lowering model size and complexity. We offer a novel classification system to organize the optimization approaches applied for SLMs, encompassing strategies like pruning, quantization, and model compression. Furthermore, we assemble SLM's studies of evaluation suite with some existing datasets, establishing a rigorous platform for measuring SLM capabilities. Alongside this, we discuss the important difficulties that remain unresolved in this sector, including trade-offs between efficiency and performance, and we suggest directions for future study. We anticipate this study to serve as a beneficial guide for researchers and practitioners who aim to construct compact, efficient, and high-performing language models.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental measure of statistical dependence between two variables, yet accurate estimation from finite data remains notoriously difficult. No estimator is universally reliable, and common approaches fail in the high-dimensional, undersampled regimes typical of modern experiments. Recent machine learning-based estimators show promise, but their accuracy depends sensitively on dataset size, structure, and hyperparameters, with no accepted tests to detect failures. We close these gaps through a systematic evaluation of classical and neural MI estimators across standard benchmarks and new synthetic datasets tailored to challenging high-dimensional, undersampled regimes. We contribute: (i) a practical protocol for reliable MI estimation with explicit checks for statistical consistency; (ii) confidence intervals (error bars around estimates) that existing neural MI estimator do not provide; and (iii) a new class of probabilistic critics designed for high-dimensional, high-information settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our protocol with computational experiments, showing that it consistently matches or surpasses existing methods while uniquely quantifying its own reliability. We show that reliable MI estimation is sometimes achievable even in severely undersampled, high-dimensional datasets, provided they admit accurate low-dimensional representations. This broadens the scope of applicability of neural MI estimators and clarifies when such estimators can be trusted.

We point out a few pitfalls in implementing gradient estimation for KL divergence in RL training for LLM, as seen in a number of open source projects and papers. The first major pitfall is to differentiate through the KL estimate as loss functions to minimize KL divergence. We show that such implementations are generally incorrect and do not produce the desired KL gradient. Secondly, we show that some implementations do not account for the sequential nature of the estimation problem and produce a partial gradient at best. We demonstrate the impact of such issues with illustrative tabular and LLM experiments, and show the correct way to implement the KL gradient.

Small language models are cheap to serve and feasible on local hardware, but strong public 135M-class systems are commonly trained with hundreds of billions to trillions of tokens on large clusters. We study a sharply resource-constrained regime: a complete 134.5M-parameter language-model pipeline executed on one NVIDIA L20 GPU. The released checkpoint, L20-Edu-135M, receives approximately 13B pretraining tokens: 10B FineWeb-Edu tokens followed by a 3B-token educational, mathematics, code, and reasoning mixture. We document the architecture, data gates, cross-source MinHash/LSH near-deduplication, segment deduplication, benchmark-overlap removal, throughput optimization, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with weight interpolation, and reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) on GSM8K. In a self-run zero-shot six-task harness, L20-Edu-135M obtains a mean score of 0.4150. It trails SmolLM-135M (0.4767) and SmolLM2-135M (0.4917), but its mean is 87.1% of SmolLM-135M's while its nominal token count is 2.17% as large. This ratio is descriptive, not evidence of statistical equivalence or a controlled scaling law. The model exceeds several older 100M-160M public baselines under the same harness. Direct GRPO-style RLVR decreases GSM8K exact-match accuracy from 1.82% to 1.59% (192-token completions) and 1.21% (320-token completions). These single-run results identify a concrete failure mode rather than establishing a general lower bound on RLVR. The contribution is an auditable resource-constrained case study, not a state-of-the-art claim.

The Neural Arithmetic Logic Unit (NALU) is a neural network layer that can learn exact arithmetic operations between the elements of a hidden state. The goal of NALU is to learn perfect extrapolation, which requires learning the exact underlying logic of an unknown arithmetic problem. Evaluating the performance of the NALU is non-trivial as one arithmetic problem might have many solutions. As a consequence, single-instance MSE has been used to evaluate and compare performance between models. However, it can be hard to interpret what magnitude of MSE represents a correct solution and models sensitivity to initialization. We propose using a success-criterion to measure if and when a model converges. Using a success-criterion we can summarize success-rate over many initialization seeds and calculate confidence intervals. We contribute a generalized version of the previous arithmetic benchmark to measure models sensitivity under different conditions. This is, to our knowledge, the first extensive evaluation with respect to convergence of the NALU and its sub-units. Using a success-criterion to summarize 4800 experiments we find that consistently learning arithmetic extrapolation is challenging, in particular for multiplication.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

The burgeoning interest in developing Large Language Models (LLMs) with up to trillion parameters has been met with concerns regarding resource efficiency and practical expense, particularly given the immense cost of experimentation. This scenario underscores the importance of exploring the potential of Small Language Models (SLMs) as a resource-efficient alternative. In this context, we introduce MiniCPM, specifically the 1.2B and 2.4B non-embedding parameter variants, not only excel in their respective categories but also demonstrate capabilities on par with 7B-13B LLMs. While focusing on SLMs, our approach exhibits scalability in both model and data dimensions for future LLM research. Regarding model scaling, we employ extensive model wind tunnel experiments for stable and optimal scaling. For data scaling, we introduce a Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) learning rate scheduler (LRS), conducive to continuous training and domain adaptation. We present an in-depth analysis of the intriguing training dynamics that occurred in the WSD LRS. With WSD LRS, we are now able to efficiently study data-model scaling law without extensive retraining experiments on both axes of model and data, from which we derive the much higher compute optimal data-model ratio than Chinchilla Optimal. Additionally, we introduce MiniCPM family, including MiniCPM-DPO, MiniCPM-MoE and MiniCPM-128K, whose excellent performance further cementing MiniCPM's foundation in diverse SLM applications. MiniCPM models are available publicly at https://github.com/OpenBMB/MiniCPM .

The observations in many applications consist of counts of discrete events, such as photons hitting a detector, which cannot be effectively modeled using an additive bounded or Gaussian noise model, and instead require a Poisson noise model. As a result, accurate reconstruction of a spatially or temporally distributed phenomenon (f*) from Poisson data (y) cannot be effectively accomplished by minimizing a conventional penalized least-squares objective function. The problem addressed in this paper is the estimation of f* from y in an inverse problem setting, where (a) the number of unknowns may potentially be larger than the number of observations and (b) f* admits a sparse approximation. The optimization formulation considered in this paper uses a penalized negative Poisson log-likelihood objective function with nonnegativity constraints (since Poisson intensities are naturally nonnegative). In particular, the proposed approach incorporates key ideas of using separable quadratic approximations to the objective function at each iteration and penalization terms related to l1 norms of coefficient vectors, total variation seminorms, and partition-based multiscale estimation methods.

Single cell analysis of human skeletal muscle (SM) tissue cross-sections is a fundamental tool for understanding many neuromuscular disorders. For this analysis to be reliable and reproducible, identification of individual fibres within microscopy images (segmentation) of SM tissue should be automatic and precise. Biomedical scientists in this field currently rely on custom tools and general machine learning (ML) models, both followed by labour intensive and subjective manual interventions to fine-tune segmentation. We believe that fully automated, precise, reproducible segmentation is possible by training ML models. However, in this important biomedical domain, there are currently no good quality, publicly available annotated imaging datasets available for ML model training. In this paper we release NCL-SM: a high quality bioimaging dataset of 46 human SM tissue cross-sections from both healthy control subjects and from patients with genetically diagnosed muscle pathology. These images include > 50k manually segmented muscle fibres (myofibres). In addition we also curated high quality myofibre segmentations, annotating reasons for rejecting low quality myofibres and low quality regions in SM tissue images, making these annotations completely ready for downstream analysis. This, we believe, will pave the way for development of a fully automatic pipeline that identifies individual myofibres within images of tissue sections and, in particular, also classifies individual myofibres that are fit for further analysis.

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has created a significant disparity: industrial research labs with their computational resources, expert teams, and advanced infrastructures, can effectively fine-tune LLMs, while individual developers and small organizations face barriers due to limited resources. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by presenting a comprehensive study on supervised fine-tuning of LLMs using instruction-tuning datasets spanning diverse knowledge domains and skills. We focus on small-sized LLMs (3B to 7B parameters) for their cost-efficiency and accessibility. We explore various training configurations and strategies across four open-source pre-trained models. We provide detailed documentation of these configurations, revealing findings that challenge several common training practices, including hyperparameter recommendations from TULU and phased training recommended by Orca. Key insights from our work include: (i) larger batch sizes paired with lower learning rates lead to improved model performance on benchmarks such as MMLU, MTBench, and Open LLM Leaderboard; (ii) early-stage training dynamics, such as lower gradient norms and higher loss values, are strong indicators of better final model performance, enabling early termination of sub-optimal runs and significant computational savings; (iii) through a thorough exploration of hyperparameters like warmup steps and learning rate schedules, we provide guidance for practitioners and find that certain simplifications do not compromise performance; and (iv) we observed no significant difference in performance between phased and stacked training strategies, but stacked training is simpler and more sample efficient. With these findings holding robustly across datasets and models, we hope this study serves as a guide for practitioners fine-tuning small LLMs and promotes a more inclusive environment for LLM research.

Large-scale kernel ridge regression (KRR) is limited by the need to store a large kernel matrix K_t. To avoid storing the entire matrix K_t, Nystrom methods subsample a subset of columns of the kernel matrix, and efficiently find an approximate KRR solution on the reconstructed matrix. The chosen subsampling distribution in turn affects the statistical and computational tradeoffs. For KRR problems, recent works show that a sampling distribution proportional to the ridge leverage scores (RLSs) provides strong reconstruction guarantees for the approximation. While exact RLSs are as difficult to compute as a KRR solution, we may be able to approximate them well enough. In this paper, we study KRR problems in a sequential setting and introduce the INK-ESTIMATE algorithm, that incrementally computes the RLSs estimates. INK-ESTIMATE maintains a small sketch of K_t, that at each step is used to compute an intermediate estimate of the RLSs. First, our sketch update does not require access to previously seen columns, and therefore a single pass over the kernel matrix is sufficient. Second, the algorithm requires a fixed, small space budget to run dependent only on the effective dimension of the kernel matrix. Finally, our sketch provides strong approximation guarantees on the distance between the true kernel matrix and its approximation, and on the statistical risk of the approximate KRR solution at any time, because all our guarantees hold at any intermediate step.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

Large language models (LLMs) produce outputs with varying levels of uncertainty, and, just as often, varying levels of correctness; making their practical reliability far from guaranteed. To quantify this uncertainty, we systematically evaluate four approaches for confidence estimation in LLM outputs: VCE, MSP, Sample Consistency, and CoCoA (Vashurin et al., 2025). For the evaluation of the approaches, we conduct experiments on four question-answering tasks using a state-of-the-art open-source LLM. Our results show that each uncertainty metric captures a different facet of model confidence and that the hybrid CoCoA approach yields the best reliability overall, improving both calibration and discrimination of correct answers. We discuss the trade-offs of each method and provide recommendations for selecting uncertainty measures in LLM applications.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

With the advent of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3, a natural question is the extent to which these models can be utilized for source code optimization. This paper presents methodologically stringent case studies applied to well-known open source python libraries pillow and numpy. We find that contemporary LLM ChatGPT-4 (state September and October 2023) is surprisingly adept at optimizing energy and compute efficiency. However, this is only the case in interactive use, with a human expert in the loop. Aware of experimenter bias, we document our qualitative approach in detail, and provide transcript and source code. We start by providing a detailed description of our approach in conversing with the LLM to optimize the _getextrema function in the pillow library, and a quantitative evaluation of the performance improvement. To demonstrate qualitative replicability, we report further attempts on another locus in the pillow library, and one code locus in the numpy library, to demonstrate generalization within and beyond a library. In all attempts, the performance improvement is significant (factor up to 38). We have also not omitted reporting of failed attempts (there were none). We conclude that LLMs are a promising tool for code optimization in open source libraries, but that the human expert in the loop is essential for success. Nonetheless, we were surprised by how few iterations were required to achieve substantial performance improvements that were not obvious to the expert in the loop. We would like bring attention to the qualitative nature of this study, more robust quantitative studies would need to introduce a layer of selecting experts in a representative sample -- we invite the community to collaborate.

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems.

Offline model selection (OMS), that is, choosing the best policy from a set of many policies given only logged data, is crucial for applying offline RL in real-world settings. One idea that has been extensively explored is to select policies based on the mean squared Bellman error (MSBE) of the associated Q-functions. However, previous work has struggled to obtain adequate OMS performance with Bellman errors, leading many researchers to abandon the idea. To this end, we elucidate why previous work has seen pessimistic results with Bellman errors and identify conditions under which OMS algorithms based on Bellman errors will perform well. Moreover, we develop a new estimator of the MSBE that is more accurate than prior methods. Our estimator obtains impressive OMS performance on diverse discrete control tasks, including Atari games.

Audio-Visual Speech Recognition (AVSR) enhances robustness in noisy environments by integrating visual cues. While recent advances integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) into AVSR, their high computational cost hinders deployment in resource-constrained settings. To address this, we propose Llama-SMoP, an efficient Multimodal LLM that employs a Sparse Mixture of Projectors (SMoP) module to scale model capacity without increasing inference costs. By incorporating sparsely-gated mixture-of-experts (MoE) projectors, Llama-SMoP enables the use of smaller LLMs while maintaining strong performance. We explore three SMoP configurations and show that Llama-SMoP DEDR (Disjoint-Experts, Disjoint-Routers), which uses modality-specific routers and experts, achieves superior performance on ASR, VSR, and AVSR tasks. Ablation studies confirm its effectiveness in expert activation, scalability, and noise robustness.

Given a set of dissimilarity measurements amongst data points, determining what metric representation is most "consistent" with the input measurements or the metric that best captures the relevant geometric features of the data is a key step in many machine learning algorithms. Existing methods are restricted to specific kinds of metrics or small problem sizes because of the large number of metric constraints in such problems. In this paper, we provide an active set algorithm, Project and Forget, that uses Bregman projections, to solve metric constrained problems with many (possibly exponentially) inequality constraints. We provide a theoretical analysis of Project and Forget and prove that our algorithm converges to the global optimal solution and that the L_2 distance of the current iterate to the optimal solution decays asymptotically at an exponential rate. We demonstrate that using our method we can solve large problem instances of three types of metric constrained problems: general weight correlation clustering, metric nearness, and metric learning; in each case, out-performing the state of the art methods with respect to CPU times and problem sizes.

We introduce a novel framework for analyzing sorting algorithms in pairwise ranking prompting (PRP), re-centering the cost model around LLM inferences rather than traditional pairwise comparisons. While classical metrics based on comparison counts have traditionally been used to gauge efficiency, our analysis reveals that expensive LLM inferences overturn these predictions; accordingly, our framework encourages strategies such as batching and caching to mitigate inference costs. We show that algorithms optimal in the classical setting can lose efficiency when LLM inferences dominate the cost under certain optimizations.

Millions of smart meters have been deployed worldwide, collecting the total power consumed by individual households. Based on these data, electricity suppliers offer their clients energy monitoring solutions to provide feedback on the consumption of their individual appliances. Historically, such estimates have relied on statistical methods that use coarse-grained total monthly consumption and static customer data, such as appliance ownership. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is the problem of disaggregating a household's collected total power consumption to retrieve the consumed power for individual appliances. Current state-of-the-art (SotA) solutions for NILM are based on deep-learning (DL) and operate on subsequences of an entire household consumption reading. However, the non-stationary nature of real-world smart meter data leads to a drift in the data distribution within each segmented window, which significantly affects model performance. This paper introduces NILMFormer, a Transformer-based architecture that incorporates a new subsequence stationarization/de-stationarization scheme to mitigate the distribution drift and that uses a novel positional encoding that relies only on the subsequence's timestamp information. Experiments with 4 real-world datasets show that NILMFormer significantly outperforms the SotA approaches. Our solution has been deployed as the backbone algorithm for EDF's (Electricit\'e De France) consumption monitoring service, delivering detailed insights to millions of customers about their individual appliances' power consumption. This paper appeared in KDD 2025.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive in-context learning (ICL) ability in code generation. LLMs take a prompt consisting of requirement-code examples and a new requirement as input, and output new programs. Existing studies have found that ICL is highly dominated by the examples and thus arises research on example selection. However, existing approaches randomly select examples or only consider the textual similarity of requirements to retrieve, leading to sub-optimal performance. In this paper, we propose a novel learning-based selection approach named LAIL (LLM-Aware In-context Learning) for code generation. Given a candidate example, we exploit LLMs themselves to estimate it by considering the generation probabilities of ground-truth programs given a requirement and the example. We then label candidate examples as positive or negative through the probability feedback. Based on the labeled data, we import a contrastive learning objective to train an effective retriever that acquires the preference of LLMs in code generation. We apply LAIL to three LLMs and evaluate it on three representative datasets (e.g., MBJP, MBPP, and MBCPP). LATA outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines by 11.58%, 6.89%, and 5.07% on CodeGen, and 4.38%, 2.85%, and 2.74% on GPT-3.5 in terms of Pass@1, respectively.

Machine-learning (ML) hardware and software system demand is burgeoning. Driven by ML applications, the number of different ML inference systems has exploded. Over 100 organizations are building ML inference chips, and the systems that incorporate existing models span at least three orders of magnitude in power consumption and five orders of magnitude in performance; they range from embedded devices to data-center solutions. Fueling the hardware are a dozen or more software frameworks and libraries. The myriad combinations of ML hardware and ML software make assessing ML-system performance in an architecture-neutral, representative, and reproducible manner challenging. There is a clear need for industry-wide standard ML benchmarking and evaluation criteria. MLPerf Inference answers that call. In this paper, we present our benchmarking method for evaluating ML inference systems. Driven by more than 30 organizations as well as more than 200 ML engineers and practitioners, MLPerf prescribes a set of rules and best practices to ensure comparability across systems with wildly differing architectures. The first call for submissions garnered more than 600 reproducible inference-performance measurements from 14 organizations, representing over 30 systems that showcase a wide range of capabilities. The submissions attest to the benchmark's flexibility and adaptability.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

The versatility of large language models (LLMs) led to the creation of diverse benchmarks that thoroughly test a variety of language models' abilities. These benchmarks consist of tens of thousands of examples making evaluation of LLMs very expensive. In this paper, we investigate strategies to reduce the number of evaluations needed to assess the performance of an LLM on several key benchmarks. For example, we show that to accurately estimate the performance of an LLM on MMLU, a popular multiple-choice QA benchmark consisting of 14K examples, it is sufficient to evaluate this LLM on 100 curated examples. We release evaluation tools and tiny versions of popular benchmarks: Open LLM Leaderboard, MMLU, HELM, and AlpacaEval 2.0. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that these tools and tiny benchmarks are sufficient to reliably and efficiently reproduce the original evaluation results.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

The proliferation of open Pre-trained Language Models (PTLMs) on model registry platforms like Hugging Face (HF) presents both opportunities and challenges for companies building products around them. Similar to traditional software dependencies, PTLMs continue to evolve after a release. However, the current state of release practices of PTLMs on model registry platforms are plagued by a variety of inconsistencies, such as ambiguous naming conventions and inaccessible model training documentation. Given the knowledge gap on current PTLM release practices, our empirical study uses a mixed-methods approach to analyze the releases of 52,227 PTLMs on the most well-known model registry, HF. Our results reveal 148 different naming practices for PTLM releases, with 40.87% of changes to model weight files not represented in the adopted name-based versioning practice or their documentation. In addition, we identified that the 52,227 PTLMs are derived from only 299 different base models (the modified original models used to create 52,227 PTLMs), with Fine-tuning and Quantization being the most prevalent modification methods applied to these base models. Significant gaps in release transparency, in terms of training dataset specifications and model card availability, still exist, highlighting the need for standardized documentation. While we identified a model naming practice explicitly differentiating between major and minor PTLM releases, we did not find any significant difference in the types of changes that went into either type of releases, suggesting that major/minor version numbers for PTLMs often are chosen arbitrarily. Our findings provide valuable insights to improve PTLM release practices, nudging the field towards more formal semantic versioning practices.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing approaches often rely on heuristic strategies for parallel sampling, lacking a principled foundation. To address this gap, we propose a probabilistic framework that formalizes the optimality of inference-time scaling under the assumption that parallel samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.), and where the Best-of-N selection strategy follows a probability distribution that can be estimated. Within this framework, we derive a theoretical lower bound on the required number of samples to achieve a target performance level, providing the first principled guidance for compute-efficient scaling. Leveraging this insight, we develop OptScale, a practical algorithm that dynamically determines the optimal number of sampled responses. OptScale employs a language model-based predictor to estimate probabilistic prior parameters, enabling the decision of the minimal number of samples needed that satisfy predefined performance thresholds and confidence levels. Extensive experiments on representative reasoning benchmarks (including MATH-500, GSM8K, AIME, and AMC) demonstrate that OptScale significantly reduces sampling overhead while remaining better or on par with state-of-the-art reasoning performance. Our work offers both a theoretical foundation and a practical solution for principled inference-time scaling, addressing a critical gap in the efficient deployment of LLMs for complex reasoning.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive success on many benchmarks for mathematical reasoning. However, there is growing concern that some of this performance actually reflects dataset contamination, where data closely resembling benchmark questions leaks into the training data, instead of true reasoning ability. To investigate this claim rigorously, we commission Grade School Math 1000 (GSM1k). GSM1k is designed to mirror the style and complexity of the established GSM8k benchmark, the gold standard for measuring elementary mathematical reasoning. We ensure that the two benchmarks are comparable across important metrics such as human solve rates, number of steps in solution, answer magnitude, and more. When evaluating leading open- and closed-source LLMs on GSM1k, we observe accuracy drops of up to 13%, with several families of models (e.g., Phi and Mistral) showing evidence of systematic overfitting across almost all model sizes. At the same time, many models, especially those on the frontier, (e.g., Gemini/GPT/Claude) show minimal signs of overfitting. Further analysis suggests a positive relationship (Spearman's r^2=0.32) between a model's probability of generating an example from GSM8k and its performance gap between GSM8k and GSM1k, suggesting that many models may have partially memorized GSM8k.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the impressive ability to perform in-context learning (ICL) from only a few examples, but the success of ICL varies widely from task to task. Thus, it is important to quickly determine whether ICL is applicable to a new task, but directly evaluating ICL accuracy can be expensive in situations where test data is expensive to annotate -- the exact situations where ICL is most appealing. In this paper, we propose the task of ICL accuracy estimation, in which we predict the accuracy of an LLM when doing in-context learning on a new task given only unlabeled test data for that task. To perform ICL accuracy estimation, we propose a method that trains a meta-model using LLM confidence scores as features. We compare our method to several strong accuracy estimation baselines on a new benchmark that covers 4 LLMs and 3 task collections. The meta-model improves over all baselines across 8 out of 12 settings and achieves the same estimation performance as directly evaluating on 40 collected labeled test examples per task. At the same time, no existing approach provides an accurate and reliable ICL accuracy estimation in every setting, highlighting the need for better ways to measure the uncertainty of LLM predictions.

Every public LLM cost calculator we surveyed treats GPU utilization as a fixed input -- entered by the user, baked in as a preset, or silently assumed at 100% -- never measured against the operator's actual load. We show that this assumption is the dominant source of error: on identical H100 hardware, effective cost spans \0.21 to 15.25 per million output tokens, an underutilization penalty of 2.5-24x across low-to-moderate enterprise loads (1-10 rps) and up to 36.3x near idle -- driven by one operator-controlled variable, offered request rate lambda, which sets in-flight concurrency via Little's Law and which no open-source calculator exposes. Because calculators take utilization as a user-supplied input, any utilization-naive estimate understates true cost by exactly 1/U, systematically mispricing self-hosting -- most severely over-selling it for low-traffic workloads. We propose a measurement methodology that parameterizes the relationship as C_eff = f(H, M, Q, lambda, L), validate it with 42 benchmarks across dense, ultra-sparse MoE, and sparse MoE models, and release vllm-cost-meter, an open-source cost meter that attaches to a live vLLM server and reports real \$/M-tokens against the operator's own traffic. We further show that FP8 quantization benefits the MoE architectures we tested roughly 2.2-2.4x more than the dense model (+69 to +74% vs. +31% peak throughput; n=3, broader validation needed), and our data are consistent with active parameter count, not total model size, being a primary predictor of saturation economics. To rule out single-hardware confounding we repeat the core sweep on A100 80GB PCIe (56 runs): the load-driven spread reproduces at 7.0-11.4x, the active-parameters ordering survives at FP8, and the dense-FP8 advantage inverts on silicon without native FP8 tensor cores -- a hardware-conditional caveat the framework already accommodates.