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Aug 4

Studying Large Language Model Generalization with Influence Functions

When trying to gain better visibility into a machine learning model in order to understand and mitigate the associated risks, a potentially valuable source of evidence is: which training examples most contribute to a given behavior? Influence functions aim to answer a counterfactual: how would the model's parameters (and hence its outputs) change if a given sequence were added to the training set? While influence functions have produced insights for small models, they are difficult to scale to large language models (LLMs) due to the difficulty of computing an inverse-Hessian-vector product (IHVP). We use the Eigenvalue-corrected Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (EK-FAC) approximation to scale influence functions up to LLMs with up to 52 billion parameters. In our experiments, EK-FAC achieves similar accuracy to traditional influence function estimators despite the IHVP computation being orders of magnitude faster. We investigate two algorithmic techniques to reduce the cost of computing gradients of candidate training sequences: TF-IDF filtering and query batching. We use influence functions to investigate the generalization patterns of LLMs, including the sparsity of the influence patterns, increasing abstraction with scale, math and programming abilities, cross-lingual generalization, and role-playing behavior. Despite many apparently sophisticated forms of generalization, we identify a surprising limitation: influences decay to near-zero when the order of key phrases is flipped. Overall, influence functions give us a powerful new tool for studying the generalization properties of LLMs.

  • 17 authors
·
Aug 7, 2023

PTMTorrent: A Dataset for Mining Open-source Pre-trained Model Packages

Due to the cost of developing and training deep learning models from scratch, machine learning engineers have begun to reuse pre-trained models (PTMs) and fine-tune them for downstream tasks. PTM registries known as "model hubs" support engineers in distributing and reusing deep learning models. PTM packages include pre-trained weights, documentation, model architectures, datasets, and metadata. Mining the information in PTM packages will enable the discovery of engineering phenomena and tools to support software engineers. However, accessing this information is difficult - there are many PTM registries, and both the registries and the individual packages may have rate limiting for accessing the data. We present an open-source dataset, PTMTorrent, to facilitate the evaluation and understanding of PTM packages. This paper describes the creation, structure, usage, and limitations of the dataset. The dataset includes a snapshot of 5 model hubs and a total of 15,913 PTM packages. These packages are represented in a uniform data schema for cross-hub mining. We describe prior uses of this data and suggest research opportunities for mining using our dataset. The PTMTorrent dataset (v1) is available at: https://app.globus.org/file-manager?origin_id=55e17a6e-9d8f-11ed-a2a2-8383522b48d9&origin_path=%2F~%2F. Our dataset generation tools are available on GitHub: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7570357.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 15, 2023

TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure progress, it is essential to be able to study and compare such methods empirically in a comprehensive and reliable manner. To achieve this, we propose TFB, an automated benchmark for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) methods. TFB advances the state-of-the-art by addressing shortcomings related to datasets, comparison methods, and evaluation pipelines: 1) insufficient coverage of data domains, 2) stereotype bias against traditional methods, and 3) inconsistent and inflexible pipelines. To achieve better domain coverage, we include datasets from 10 different domains: traffic, electricity, energy, the environment, nature, economic, stock markets, banking, health, and the web. We also provide a time series characterization to ensure that the selected datasets are comprehensive. To remove biases against some methods, we include a diverse range of methods, including statistical learning, machine learning, and deep learning methods, and we also support a variety of evaluation strategies and metrics to ensure a more comprehensive evaluations of different methods. To support the integration of different methods into the benchmark and enable fair comparisons, TFB features a flexible and scalable pipeline that eliminates biases. Next, we employ TFB to perform a thorough evaluation of 21 Univariate Time Series Forecasting (UTSF) methods on 8,068 univariate time series and 14 Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) methods on 25 datasets. The benchmark code and data are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TFB. We have also launched an online time series leaderboard: https://decisionintelligence.github.io/OpenTS/OpenTS-Bench/.

  • 11 authors
·
Mar 29, 2024

TS-Arena -- A Live Forecast Pre-Registration Platform

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-test sample overlaps and temporal overlaps between correlated train and test time series. To address this, we introduce TS-Arena, a live forecasting platform that shifts evaluation from the known past to the unknown future. Building on the concept of continuous benchmarking, TS-Arena evaluates models on future data. Crucially, we introduce a strict forecasting pre-registration protocol: models must submit predictions before the ground-truth data physically exists. This makes test-set contamination impossible by design. The platform relies on a modular microservice architecture that harmonizes and structures data from different sources and orchestrates containerized model submissions. By enforcing a strict pre-registration protocol on live data streams, TS-Arena prevents information leakage offers a faster alternative to traditional static, infrequently repeated competitions (e.g. the M-Competitions). First empirical results derived from operating TS-Arena over one year of energy time series demonstrate that established TSFMs accumulate robust longitudinal scores over time, while the continuous nature of the benchmark simultaneously allows newcomers to demonstrate immediate competitiveness. TS-Arena provides the necessary infrastructure to assess the true generalization capabilities of modern forecasting models. The platform and corresponding code are available at https://ts-arena.live/.

TRAVELFRAUDBENCH: A Configurable Evaluation Framework for GNN Fraud Ring Detection in Travel Networks

We introduce TravelFraudBench (TFG), a configurable benchmark for evaluating graph neural networks (GNNs) on fraud ring detection in travel platform graphs. Existing benchmarks--YelpChi, Amazon-Fraud, Elliptic, PaySim--cover single node types or domain-generic patterns with no mechanism to evaluate across structurally distinct fraud ring topologies. TFG simulates three travel-specific ring types--ticketing fraud (star topology with shared device/IP clusters), ghost hotel schemes (reviewer x hotel bipartite cliques), and account takeover rings (loyalty transfer chains)--in a heterogeneous graph with 9 node types and 12 edge types. Ring size, count, fraud rate, scale (500 to 200,000 nodes), and composition are fully configurable. We evaluate six methods--MLP, GraphSAGE, RGCN-proj, HAN, RGCN, and PC-GNN--under a ring-based split where each ring appears entirely in one partition, eliminating transductive label leakage. GraphSAGE achieves AUC=0.992 and RGCN-proj AUC=0.987, outperforming the MLP baseline (AUC=0.938) by 5.5 and 5.0 pp, confirming graph structure adds substantial discriminative power. HAN (AUC=0.935) is a negative result, matching the MLP baseline. On the ring recovery task (>=80% of ring members flagged simultaneously), GraphSAGE achieves 100% recovery across all ring types; MLP recovers only 17-88%. The edge-type ablation shows device and IP co-occurrence are the primary signals: removing uses_device drops AUC by 5.2 pp. TFG is released as an open-source Python package (MIT license) with PyG, DGL, and NetworkX exporters and pre-generated datasets at https://huggingface.co/datasets/bsajja7/travel-fraud-graphs, with Croissant metadata including Responsible AI fields.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 21

TempusBench: An Evaluation Framework for Time-Series Forecasting

Foundation models have transformed natural language processing and computer vision, and a rapidly growing literature on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) seeks to replicate this success in forecasting. While recent open-source models demonstrate the promise of TSFMs, the field lacks a comprehensive and community-accepted model evaluation framework. We see at least four major issues impeding progress on the development of such a framework. First, existing evaluation frameworks comprise benchmark forecasting tasks derived from often outdated datasets (e.g., M3), many of which lack clear metadata and overlap with the corpora used to pre-train TSFMs. Second, these frameworks evaluate models along a narrowly defined set of benchmark forecasting tasks, such as forecast horizon length or domain, but overlook core statistical properties such as non-stationarity and seasonality. Third, domain-specific models (e.g., XGBoost) are often compared unfairly, as existing frameworks do not enforce a systematic and consistent hyperparameter tuning convention for all models. Fourth, visualization tools for interpreting comparative performance are lacking. To address these issues, we introduce TempusBench, an open-source evaluation framework for TSFMs. TempusBench consists of 1) new datasets which are not included in existing TSFM pretraining corpora, 2) a set of novel benchmark tasks that go beyond existing ones, 3) a model evaluation pipeline with a standardized hyperparameter tuning protocol, and 4) a tensorboard-based visualization interface. We provide access to our code on GitHub: https://github.com/Smlcrm/TempusBench and maintain a live leaderboard at https://benchmark.smlcrm.com/.

  • 13 authors
·
Apr 15

TFM Dataset: A Novel Multi-task Dataset and Integrated Pipeline for Automated Tear Film Break-Up Segmentation

Tear film break-up (TFBU) analysis is critical for diagnosing dry eye syndrome, but automated TFBU segmentation remains challenging due to the lack of annotated datasets and integrated solutions. This paper introduces the Tear Film Multi-task (TFM) Dataset, the first comprehensive dataset for multi-task tear film analysis, comprising 15 high-resolution videos (totaling 6,247 frames) annotated with three vision tasks: frame-level classification ('clear', 'closed', 'broken', 'blur'), Placido Ring detection, and pixel-wise TFBU area segmentation. Leveraging this dataset, we first propose TF-Net, a novel and efficient baseline segmentation model. TF-Net incorporates a MobileOne-mini backbone with re-parameterization techniques and an enhanced feature pyramid network to achieve a favorable balance between accuracy and computational efficiency for real-time clinical applications. We further establish benchmark performance on the TFM segmentation subset by comparing TF-Net against several state-of-the-art medical image segmentation models. Furthermore, we design TF-Collab, a novel integrated real-time pipeline that synergistically leverages models trained on all three tasks of the TFM dataset. By sequentially orchestrating frame classification for BUT determination, pupil region localization for input standardization, and TFBU segmentation, TF-Collab fully automates the analysis. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed TF-Net and TF-Collab, providing a foundation for future research in ocular surface diagnostics. Our code and the TFM datasets are available at https://github.com/glory-wan/TF-Net

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 7, 2025

Technical Report of TeleChat2, TeleChat2.5 and T1

We introduce the latest series of TeleChat models: TeleChat2, TeleChat2.5, and T1, offering a significant upgrade over their predecessor, TeleChat. Despite minimal changes to the model architecture, the new series achieves substantial performance gains through enhanced training strategies in both pre-training and post-training stages. The series begins with TeleChat2, which undergoes pretraining on 10 trillion high-quality and diverse tokens. This is followed by Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to further enhance its capabilities. TeleChat2.5 and T1 expand the pipeline by incorporating a continual pretraining phase with domain-specific datasets, combined with reinforcement learning (RL) to improve performance in code generation and mathematical reasoning tasks. The T1 variant is designed for complex reasoning, supporting long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning and demonstrating substantial improvements in mathematics and coding. In contrast, TeleChat2.5 prioritizes speed, delivering rapid inference. Both flagship models of T1 and TeleChat2.5 are dense Transformer-based architectures with 115B parameters, showcasing significant advancements in reasoning and general task performance compared to the original TeleChat. Notably, T1-115B outperform proprietary models such as OpenAI's o1-mini and GPT-4o. We publicly release TeleChat2, TeleChat2.5 and T1, including post-trained versions with 35B and 115B parameters, to empower developers and researchers with state-of-the-art language models tailored for diverse applications.

  • 38 authors
·
Jul 23, 2025 2

Building Large-Scale English-Romanian Literary Translation Resources with Open Models

Literary translation has recently gained attention as a distinct and complex task in machine translation research. However, the translation by small open models remains an open problem. We contribute to this ongoing research by introducing TINYFABULIST TRANSLATION FRAMEWORK (TF2), a unified framework for dataset creation, fine-tuning, and evaluation in English-Romanian literary translations, centred on the creation and open release of both a compact, fine-tuned language model (TF2-12B) and large-scale synthetic parallel datasets (DS-TF2-EN-RO-3M and DS-TF2-EN-RO-15K). Building on DS-TF1-EN-3M (TF1), the largest collection of synthetic English fables to date, we address the need for rich, high-quality literary datasets in low-resource languages such as Romanian. Our pipeline first generates 15k high-quality Romanian references from the TF1 pool using a high-performing LLM. We then apply a two-stage fine-tuning process to a 12B-parameter open-weight model: (i) instruction tuning to capture genre-specific narrative style, and (ii) adapter compression for efficient deployment. Evaluation combines corpus-level BLEU and a five-dimension LLM-based rubric (accuracy, fluency, coherence, style, cultural adaptation) to provide a nuanced assessment of translation quality. Results show that our fine-tuned model achieves strong fluency and adequacy, narrowing the gap to top-performing proprietary models under automated and human-anchored evaluation, while being open, accessible, and significantly more cost-effective. Alongside the finetuned model, and both datasets, we publicly release all scripts and evaluation prompts. TF2 thus provides an end-to-end, reproducible pipeline for research on cost-efficient translation, cross-lingual narrative generation, and the broad adoption of open models for culturally significant literary content in low-resource settings.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 18

A Skull-Adaptive Framework for AI-Based 3D Transcranial Focused Ultrasound Simulation

Transcranial focused ultrasound (tFUS) is an emerging modality for non-invasive brain stimulation and therapeutic intervention, offering millimeter-scale spatial precision and the ability to target deep brain structures. However, the heterogeneous and anisotropic nature of the human skull introduces significant distortions to the propagating ultrasound wavefront, which require time-consuming patient-specific planning and corrections using numerical solvers for accurate targeting. To enable data-driven approaches in this domain, we introduce TFUScapes, the first large-scale, high-resolution dataset of tFUS simulations through anatomically realistic human skulls derived from T1-weighted MRI images. We have developed a scalable simulation engine pipeline using the k-Wave pseudo-spectral solver, where each simulation returns a steady-state pressure field generated by a focused ultrasound transducer placed at realistic scalp locations. In addition to the dataset, we present DeepTFUS, a deep learning model that estimates normalized pressure fields directly from input 3D CT volumes and transducer position. The model extends a U-Net backbone with transducer-aware conditioning, incorporating Fourier-encoded position embeddings and MLP layers to create global transducer embeddings. These embeddings are fused with U-Net encoder features via feature-wise modulation, dynamic convolutions, and cross-attention mechanisms. The model is trained using a combination of spatially weighted and gradient-sensitive loss functions, enabling it to approximate high-fidelity wavefields. The TFUScapes dataset is publicly released to accelerate research at the intersection of computational acoustics, neurotechnology, and deep learning. The project page is available at https://github.com/CAMMA-public/TFUScapes.

  • 6 authors
·
May 19, 2025

Surprisingly Simple and Effective Multi-Domain Graph Foundation Model through Graph-to-Table Alignment

Graph Foundation Models (GFMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for learning transferable representations across diverse graph domains. Recent advancements in GFMs have been largely dominated by two paradigms: Graph Neural Network and Large Language Model (LLM) based methods. However, these methods often face a fundamental dilemma between training with limited data and a heavy reliance on textual attributes. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) offer a potential alternative, as node features and representations can be naturally organized in a tabular form. However, how to enable TFMs to effectively capture structural information of graphs remains largely unexplored. The key challenge is to learn a graph-to-table alignment mechanism that enables graph structural understanding for TFMs. To address this, we propose GTAlign, a surprisingly simple yet effective Graph-to-Table Alignment framework for text-free Graph Foundation Model. Specifically, we first pretrain a graph encoder that maps diverse graphs into a unified latent space to capture domain-agnostic graph representations. To further bridge the gap between graph topology and the tabular representation space, we propose community-guided continual pre-training, where pseudo-labels derived from graph community are used to construct few-shot prediction episodes. Lastly, we adapt the graph encoder for an unseen target domain and perform in-context inference. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets demonstrate that GTAlign significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on both node and graph classification, offering a simple, effective, and text-free GFM model. Code will be released upon acceptance.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 12

It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a rigorous human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 representative TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 3

Telecom Foundation Models: Applications, Challenges, and Future Trends

Telecom networks are becoming increasingly complex, with diversified deployment scenarios, multi-standards, and multi-vendor support. The intricate nature of the telecom network ecosystem presents challenges to effectively manage, operate, and optimize networks. To address these hurdles, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been widely adopted to solve different tasks in telecom networks. However, these conventional AI models are often designed for specific tasks, rely on extensive and costly-to-collect labeled data that require specialized telecom expertise for development and maintenance. The AI models usually fail to generalize and support diverse deployment scenarios and applications. In contrast, Foundation Models (FMs) show effective generalization capabilities in various domains in language, vision, and decision-making tasks. FMs can be trained on multiple data modalities generated from the telecom ecosystem and leverage specialized domain knowledge. Moreover, FMs can be fine-tuned to solve numerous specialized tasks with minimal task-specific labeled data and, in some instances, are able to leverage context to solve previously unseen problems. At the dawn of 6G, this paper investigates the potential opportunities of using FMs to shape the future of telecom technologies and standards. In particular, the paper outlines a conceptual process for developing Telecom FMs (TFMs) and discusses emerging opportunities for orchestrating specialized TFMs for network configuration, operation, and maintenance. Finally, the paper discusses the limitations and challenges of developing and deploying TFMs.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 2, 2024

TFMAdapter: Lightweight Instance-Level Adaptation of Foundation Models for Forecasting with Covariates

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 17, 2025

TimeRFT: Stimulating Generalizable Time Series Forecasting for TSFMs via Reinforcement Finetuning

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons. First, the non-stationary and uncertain nature of time series data lead to inevitable temporal distribution shifts between historical training and future testing data, while current Supervised FineTuning (SFT)-based methods are prone to overfitting and may degrade generalization. Second, training data availability varies across forecasting tasks, requiring TSFMs to generalize well under diverse data regimes. To address these challenges, we introduce the Time series Reinforcement Finetuning (TimeRFT) paradigm for TSFM downstream adaptation, which consists of two task-specific training recipes: i) A forecasting quality-based temporal reward mechanism that conducts a multi-faceted evaluation of the contribution of each prediction step to overall forecasting accuracy. ii) A forecasting difficulty-based data selection strategy to identify time series samples with generalizable predictive patterns and informative training signals. Extensive experiments demonstrate TimeRFT can consistently outperform SFT-based adaptation methods across various real-world forecasting tasks and training data regimes, enhancing prediction accuracy and generalization against unforeseen distribution shifts.

HKUSTGZ HKUSTGZ
·
Apr 17