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Oct 16

TiRex-2: Generalizing TiRex to Multivariate Data and Streaming

We introduce TiRex-2, a recurrent xLSTM-based time series foundation model that generalizes the univariate TiRex to multivariate forecasting with both past and future covariates. Real-world forecasting is inherently sequential: observations arrive continuously, variables evolve jointly, and a subset of covariates is known ahead of time. Existing Transformer-based time series foundation models capture cross-variate dependencies but incur quadratic complexity in context length and require full-history recomputation as new observations arrive. TiRex-2 addresses these limitations through a memory-centric recurrent design that operates at constant per-patch cost under streaming. The model combines a bidirectional time mixer with an asymmetric grouped-attention variate mixer, enabling the integration of future-known covariates while preserving strict causality over target variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time series foundation model that achieves this combination of properties. To support scalable multivariate pretraining, we propose a synthetic coupling pipeline that composes diverse multivariate samples on the fly from large univariate corpora. Empirically, TiRex-2 achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on GIFT-Eval and fev-bench, remains stable when streamed to arbitrary context lengths, and maintains constant inference cost per patch. The model uses 38.4M active parameters in univariate mode, with an additional 44.1M parameters activated for multivariate forecasting.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 30

IND-Eval: Aligning Evaluation and Simulation for Industrial Time Series Foundation Models

We introduce IND-Eval, a public benchmark that organizes industrial time series across domains into source-specific forecasting tasks. Relative to established benchmarks such as GIFT-Eval, it emphasizes finer sampling resolutions and a greater prevalence of multivariate forecasting. Evaluating Chronos-2, TiRex-2, and TimesFM-3, we find that TimesFM-3 achieves the lowest source-balanced aggregate nMASE and nCRPS and leads seven of nine sources under each metric; source-specific exceptions reinforce the need for domain-representative evaluation for model selection. These findings also motivate improving domain alignment during pretraining, where real industrial data are often too scarce to close domain-specific gaps directly; we therefore investigate whether a domain's statistical structure can guide simulator design. In a case study on two offshore well-monitoring regimes, we improve a general simulator's coverage using an oscillator-augmented simulation pipeline. This lowers forecasting error in the target domain but reduces performance on the subset of GIFT-Eval with natively univariate targets. A 50/50 mixture of the general and augmented simulation recipes achieves the lowest error among the three training recipes for all four event-metric pairs in the case study while recovering most of the lost GIFT-Eval performance. Together, these results illustrate how domain-representative evaluation can guide model selection and the composition of simulated data while revealing a trade-off between specialization and generality.

cognitedata cognitedata
·
Oct 11

TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

  • 6 authors
·
May 29, 2025

Perturbation Analysis of Neural Collapse

Training deep neural networks for classification often includes minimizing the training loss beyond the zero training error point. In this phase of training, a "neural collapse" behavior has been observed: the variability of features (outputs of the penultimate layer) of within-class samples decreases and the mean features of different classes approach a certain tight frame structure. Recent works analyze this behavior via idealized unconstrained features models where all the minimizers exhibit exact collapse. However, with practical networks and datasets, the features typically do not reach exact collapse, e.g., because deep layers cannot arbitrarily modify intermediate features that are far from being collapsed. In this paper, we propose a richer model that can capture this phenomenon by forcing the features to stay in the vicinity of a predefined features matrix (e.g., intermediate features). We explore the model in the small vicinity case via perturbation analysis and establish results that cannot be obtained by the previously studied models. For example, we prove reduction in the within-class variability of the optimized features compared to the predefined input features (via analyzing gradient flow on the "central-path" with minimal assumptions), analyze the minimizers in the near-collapse regime, and provide insights on the effect of regularization hyperparameters on the closeness to collapse. We support our theory with experiments in practical deep learning settings.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 29, 2022

RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control

We study how vision-language models trained on Internet-scale data can be incorporated directly into end-to-end robotic control to boost generalization and enable emergent semantic reasoning. Our goal is to enable a single end-to-end trained model to both learn to map robot observations to actions and enjoy the benefits of large-scale pretraining on language and vision-language data from the web. To this end, we propose to co-fine-tune state-of-the-art vision-language models on both robotic trajectory data and Internet-scale vision-language tasks, such as visual question answering. In contrast to other approaches, we propose a simple, general recipe to achieve this goal: in order to fit both natural language responses and robotic actions into the same format, we express the actions as text tokens and incorporate them directly into the training set of the model in the same way as natural language tokens. We refer to such category of models as vision-language-action models (VLA) and instantiate an example of such a model, which we call RT-2. Our extensive evaluation (6k evaluation trials) shows that our approach leads to performant robotic policies and enables RT-2 to obtain a range of emergent capabilities from Internet-scale training. This includes significantly improved generalization to novel objects, the ability to interpret commands not present in the robot training data (such as placing an object onto a particular number or icon), and the ability to perform rudimentary reasoning in response to user commands (such as picking up the smallest or largest object, or the one closest to another object). We further show that incorporating chain of thought reasoning allows RT-2 to perform multi-stage semantic reasoning, for example figuring out which object to pick up for use as an improvised hammer (a rock), or which type of drink is best suited for someone who is tired (an energy drink).

  • 54 authors
·
Jul 28, 2023 3

SceneFactory-3D: Lifting 2D Traffic Scenes into 3D Physical Counterfactuals for Scalable Physically Grounded Safety Evaluation

Scalable driving simulators typically execute vehicle commands using prescribed behavioral or kinematic rules, overlooking the physics of tire-road interfaces, thereby limiting their ability to capture how adverse road and environmental conditions alter vehicle execution and propagate through traffic. To address this limitation, we present SceneFactory-3D, a GPU-batched, physics-grounded multi-agent driving simulator. Vehicles execute acceleration and steering commands via suspension- and friction-limited forces evaluated at each wheel-contact point. Spatially varying friction, per-world 3D heightfields, gravity, and rigid contact consistently govern wheel motion and chassis collisions. Per-world terrain isolation and GPU batching enable SceneFactory-3D to run matched physical counterfactuals in parallel: traffic scenario setup and vehicle controllers remain fixed while only the road condition changes, enabling the resulting closed-loop effects to be evaluated across parallel worlds. To demonstrate the advantage of the SceneFactory-3D-enabled counterfactual evaluation, we conduct an empirical study on vehicle controllers' sensitivity to road conditions. We study three learned-policy families on 1,024 matched 12-vehicle worlds per condition, and two classical planners on a shared 32-world subset, across 21 friction and grade conditions. When friction drops from 1.0 to 0.18, the share of vehicles that clear the work zone safely falls by 6 to 90 percentage points across learned policies (18-19 for classical planners), and near-collision situations become more frequent for every learned policy. Code: https://github.com/SmallWorldLab/SceneFactory_3D

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 12

Encoding Time-Series Explanations through Self-Supervised Model Behavior Consistency

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 3, 2023 1

Streaming Neural Speech Codecs through Time-Invariant Representations

Neural speech codecs are increasingly used as intermediate representations in codec-based speech generation systems. TiCodec introduces a factorized representation that separates time-varying speech content from time-invariant information through a Time-Invariant Representation Extraction (TIRE) module, potentially reducing the amount of information that must be modeled at the frame-level. In this work, we investigate the nature of the information captured by TIRE representations and their suitability for low-latency speech processing. Using a series of probing tasks, we analyze the influence of the encoder layer and show that intermediate layers capture complementary speaker- and environment-related information while containing little linguistic content. We further study several segment selection strategies for TIRE training and demonstrate that cross-file sampling improves the robustness of invariant representations. Based on these findings, we propose Dual-TIRE, a multi-level architecture that exploits the complementarity of different encoder layers and improves speech reconstruction quality and speaker similarity. Finally, we evaluate TiCodec in a streaming inference setting using successive 660ms processing blocks. Results show that streaming operation can be achieved without significant degradation in reconstruction performance, highlighting the potential of factorized neural codec representations for future low-latency speech generation systems.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 5

Adapting and Evaluating Influence-Estimation Methods for Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees

Influence estimation analyzes how changes to the training data can lead to different model predictions; this analysis can help us better understand these predictions, the models making those predictions, and the data sets they're trained on. However, most influence-estimation techniques are designed for deep learning models with continuous parameters. Gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs) are a powerful and widely-used class of models; however, these models are black boxes with opaque decision-making processes. In the pursuit of better understanding GBDT predictions and generally improving these models, we adapt recent and popular influence-estimation methods designed for deep learning models to GBDTs. Specifically, we adapt representer-point methods and TracIn, denoting our new methods TREX and BoostIn, respectively; source code is available at https://github.com/jjbrophy47/tree_influence. We compare these methods to LeafInfluence and other baselines using 5 different evaluation measures on 22 real-world data sets with 4 popular GBDT implementations. These experiments give us a comprehensive overview of how different approaches to influence estimation work in GBDT models. We find BoostIn is an efficient influence-estimation method for GBDTs that performs equally well or better than existing work while being four orders of magnitude faster. Our evaluation also suggests the gold-standard approach of leave-one-out (LOO) retraining consistently identifies the single-most influential training example but performs poorly at finding the most influential set of training examples for a given target prediction.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 30, 2022

A Survey on Cost Types, Interaction Schemes, and Annotator Performance Models in Selection Algorithms for Active Learning in Classification

Pool-based active learning (AL) aims to optimize the annotation process (i.e., labeling) as the acquisition of annotations is often time-consuming and therefore expensive. For this purpose, an AL strategy queries annotations intelligently from annotators to train a high-performance classification model at a low annotation cost. Traditional AL strategies operate in an idealized framework. They assume a single, omniscient annotator who never gets tired and charges uniformly regardless of query difficulty. However, in real-world applications, we often face human annotators, e.g., crowd or in-house workers, who make annotation mistakes and can be reluctant to respond if tired or faced with complex queries. Recently, a wide range of novel AL strategies has been proposed to address these issues. They differ in at least one of the following three central aspects from traditional AL: (1) They explicitly consider (multiple) human annotators whose performances can be affected by various factors, such as missing expertise. (2) They generalize the interaction with human annotators by considering different query and annotation types, such as asking an annotator for feedback on an inferred classification rule. (3) They take more complex cost schemes regarding annotations and misclassifications into account. This survey provides an overview of these AL strategies and refers to them as real-world AL. Therefore, we introduce a general real-world AL strategy as part of a learning cycle and use its elements, e.g., the query and annotator selection algorithm, to categorize about 60 real-world AL strategies. Finally, we outline possible directions for future research in the field of AL.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 23, 2021

SceneFactory: GPU-Accelerated Multi-Agent Driving Simulation with Physics-Based Vehicle Dynamics

Autonomous-driving simulators typically trade physical fidelity for scalable parallelism. Physics-based platforms such as CARLA and MetaDrive provide articulated vehicle dynamics and contact, but their non-vectorized interfaces make batched training difficult. GPU-batched systems such as Waymax and GPUDrive scale to hundreds of scenarios by replacing rigid-body physics with simplified kinematic models, omitting tire--road interaction, suspension, contact dynamics, and road-condition-dependent friction. We introduce SceneFactory, a GPU-vectorized platform for procedural scene construction, physics-based multi-agent simulation, and RL in autonomous-driving environments. Built on NVIDIA Isaac Sim + Isaac Lab, SceneFactory represents worlds and agents as batched tensors: control, observations, rewards, resets, and policy inference run as GPU tensor operations over the Isaac Lab tensor API. SceneFactory converts Waymo Open Motion Dataset road topologies into simulation-ready USD worlds, runs many worlds concurrently on one GPU, populates each with multiple articulated PhysX vehicles, and maps precipitation and road-surface type to PhysX material friction coefficients. With GPU vectorization, SceneFactory achieves up to 127times higher throughput than a non-vectorized PhysX baseline on the same GPU and physics solver, reaching 19,250 controlled-agent simulation steps per second at 256 worlds times 16 agents. Cross-simulator transfer reveals an asymmetric dynamics gap: physics-grounded RL policies transfer to a simplified kinematic bicycle model with 99.5% success, whereas reverse transfer drops to 47.3%. Under wet-road friction, friction-aware policies reduce mean peak DRAC from 58.7 to 27.8,m/s^2 without sacrificing goal reach. SceneFactory shows that scalable autonomous-driving training need not discard articulated rigid-body dynamics or physically grounded road-condition variation.

  • 4 authors
·
May 7

ARC-CT: Anatomy-Routed Contrastive Vision-Language Learning for 3D Chest CT

Contrastive vision-language learning uses paired chest CT volumes and radiology reports to learn abnormality classifiers without manually annotated labels. However, two characteristics of chest CT challenge conventional global contrastive learning. First, many critical abnormalities are small or anatomically localized, and pooling an en- tire volume into a single embedding may dilute their visual evidence. Second, the standard contrastive objective treats every other scan in a batch as a negative. Because many chest CTs share abnormalities, this objective incorrectly pushes co-positive pairs apart. We propose Anatomy-Routed Contrastive Learning for 3D Chest CT (ARC-CT), a region-aware framework that addresses these limitations using only la- bels extracted from reports by an LLM, with no manual annotations or bounding boxes. ARC-CT combines three components: (1) an Anato- myQFormer localizing evidence via queries constrained by automatically generated organ masks; (2) a label-Jaccard soft InfoNCE objective in- tegrating the standard one-hot target with the label-set overlap of each pair, which reduces false-negative penalties between studies that share clinical findings; and (3) an organ-level alignment loss connecting mask- pooled visual features to organ-specific report text extracted offline with a large language model. ARC-CT achieves a 0.86 mask-free macro AUC across 18 abnormalities using a compact 3D ResNet-18 backbone. Over- all, ARC-CT outperforms both comparable efficient baselines and sev- eral larger transformer models. Our code and weights are available at https://github.com/arc-ct/arc-ct.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 27

MetaKernelBench: Measuring GPU Kernel Knowledge Transfer Beyond Code

Recent GPU kernel optimization agents retain what they learn in knowledge bases or as distilled skills. Kernel benchmarks score each attempt's implementation for correctness and speed but leave the reuse value of retained experience unmeasured. We introduce MetaKernelBench, which measures whether experience distilled from an attempt in one kernel domain-specific language (DSL) improves a fresh attempt at the same problem in another. Its 74 problems are fused subgraphs in six families, each posed as a pair of CuTe DSL and TIRx variants that differ only in the DSL. The agent first attempts each variant solo and is instructed to distill what it learns into a natural-language skill, which is transferred whether or not the source attempt passes verification. The skill is the only extra input to a skill-conditioned attempt by the same model in the other DSL. We compare each skill-conditioned attempt with the solo attempt on the same variant under matched per-attempt budgets, scoring correctness and end-to-end runtime. Across six models and both directions, paired lift over solo attempts ranges from -19% to +29%. Four models gain in both directions, yet regressions occur on 16% to 45% of problems in every model and direction. Outcomes follow the source attempt's result relative to the target's solo attempt rather than source success alone, improving in 71% of comparisons when the source stands above and regressing in 54% when it stands below. MetaKernelBench complements implementation-quality metrics by measuring same-problem cross-DSL kernel knowledge transfer.