Daily Papers

We propose Zero-Error Horizon (ZEH) for trustworthy LLMs, which represents the maximum range that a model can solve without any errors. While ZEH itself is simple, we demonstrate that evaluating the ZEH of state-of-the-art LLMs yields abundant insights. For example, by evaluating the ZEH of GPT-5.2, we found that GPT-5.2 cannot even compute the parity of a short string like 11000, and GPT-5.2 cannot determine whether the parentheses in ((((()))))) are balanced. This is surprising given the excellent capabilities of GPT-5.2. The fact that LLMs make mistakes on such simple problems serves as an important lesson when applying LLMs to safety-critical domains. By applying ZEH to Qwen2.5 and conducting detailed analysis, we found that while ZEH correlates with accuracy, the detailed behaviors differ, and ZEH provides clues about the emergence of algorithmic capabilities. Finally, while computing ZEH incurs significant computational cost, we discuss how to mitigate this cost by achieving up to one order of magnitude speedup using tree structures and online softmax.

Time series forecasting is a fundamental problem with applications in climate, energy, healthcare, and finance. Many existing approaches require domain-specific feature engineering and substantial labeled data for each task. We introduce PatchFormer, a patch-based time series foundation model that uses hierarchical masked reconstruction for self-supervised pretraining and lightweight adapters for efficient transfer. PatchFormer segments time series into patches and learns multiscale temporal representations with learnable aggregation across temporal scales. Pretraining uses masked patch reconstruction with dynamic masking and objectives that encourage both local accuracy and global consistency, followed by cross-domain knowledge distillation. Experiments on 24 benchmark datasets spanning weather, energy, traffic, finance, and healthcare demonstrate state-of-the-art zero-shot multi-horizon forecasting, reducing mean squared error by 27.3 percent relative to strong baselines while requiring 94 percent less task-specific training data. The model exhibits near log-linear scaling with more pretraining data up to 100 billion points and processes length-512 sequences 3.8x faster than full-sequence transformers.

We present a novel approach for long-term human trajectory prediction in indoor human-centric environments, which is essential for long-horizon robot planning in these environments. State-of-the-art human trajectory prediction methods are limited by their focus on collision avoidance and short-term planning, and their inability to model complex interactions of humans with the environment. In contrast, our approach overcomes these limitations by predicting sequences of human interactions with the environment and using this information to guide trajectory predictions over a horizon of up to 60s. We leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict interactions with the environment by conditioning the LLM prediction on rich contextual information about the scene. This information is given as a 3D Dynamic Scene Graph that encodes the geometry, semantics, and traversability of the environment into a hierarchical representation. We then ground these interaction sequences into multi-modal spatio-temporal distributions over human positions using a probabilistic approach based on continuous-time Markov Chains. To evaluate our approach, we introduce a new semi-synthetic dataset of long-term human trajectories in complex indoor environments, which also includes annotations of human-object interactions. We show in thorough experimental evaluations that our approach achieves a 54% lower average negative log-likelihood and a 26.5% lower Best-of-20 displacement error compared to the best non-privileged (i.e., evaluated in a zero-shot fashion on the dataset) baselines for a time horizon of 60s.

LeWorldModel trains a latent world model with a prediction loss and a single anti-collapse regulariser, and reports approximately 87% of goals reached on TwoRoom, its simplest diagnostic environment. We reproduce that result by independent reimplementation on roughly $25 of rented compute, with all evaluation on one laptop CPU. We reach 94.0% at the repository's evaluation goal offset, against 84.0% for the authors' own released checkpoint measured under our protocol on identical episodes, and we reproduce the reported representation result directly (position probe Pearson r = 0.9988 against a reported 0.996). Reaching that point required four conventions that determine the outcome and appear in no released configuration file: dense action gathering across a frameskip block, a programmatically-set action-encoder width, ImageNet pixel normalisation, and action z-scoring. A reproducer following the released configurations alone obtains a model whose predictor cannot converge. The evaluation protocol is itself contested by the released material. The paper's appendix and the repository's configuration specify different goal offsets and step budgets; on the authors' own weights these yield 14.0% and 84.0%, and only the configuration's values reproduce the reported figure. On fifty identical episodes, changing nothing but how the goal is constructed moves that checkpoint from 84.0% to 8.0%. Two findings generalise. One-step prediction accuracy does not predict long-horizon planning success: across three checkpoints spanning a sevenfold range in prediction error, including the authors' own, it orders short-horizon success monotonically and fails to order long-horizon success at all. And a batch normalisation layer inflated our reported validation loss by up to a factor of 300, concealing a training loss that was flat throughout.

Accurate dynamics models are critical for informed decision-making in robotic systems, particularly for agile aerial vehicles operating under uncertainty. Neural network dynamics models are attractive for capturing complex nonlinear effects, but existing predictive approaches struggle with long-horizon forecasting because their autoregressive rollout mechanism amplifies errors over time. Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) offer a compelling alternative by modeling dynamics in latent space, yet prior JEPA-style methods for robot navigation have been studied primarily for kinematic-level planning, with limited investigation in high-frequency control. In this work, we introduce the JEPA-style model for real-time quadrotor control. The proposed approach combines a latent dynamics model with a novel physics-inspired prober that maps frozen latents to interpretable state, enabling physically grounded long-horizon prediction. Additionally, we combine the learned model with a sampling-based optimal control solution to take advantage of its predictive capabilities for real-time control on embedded hardware. Finally, to reduce the dependence on expensive and unsafe real-world data collection, we develop a structured pipeline for automated dataset generation. Extensive open-loop and outdoor closed-loop experiments demonstrate accurate prediction, robust zero-shot sim-to-real transfer, and strong generalization across diverse operating conditions.

During lung radiotherapy, the position of infrared reflective objects on the chest can be recorded to estimate the tumor location. However, radiotherapy systems have a latency inherent to robot control limitations that impedes the radiation delivery precision. Prediction with online learning of recurrent neural networks (RNN) allows for adaptation to non-stationary respiratory signals, but classical methods such as RTRL and truncated BPTT are respectively slow and biased. This study investigates the capabilities of unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO) to forecast respiratory motion and enhance safety in lung radiotherapy. We used 9 observation records of the 3D position of 3 external markers on the chest and abdomen of healthy individuals breathing during intervals from 73s to 222s. The sampling frequency was 10Hz, and the amplitudes of the recorded trajectories range from 6mm to 40mm in the superior-inferior direction. We forecast the 3D location of each marker simultaneously with a horizon value between 0.1s and 2.0s, using an RNN trained with UORO. We compare its performance with an RNN trained with RTRL, LMS, and offline linear regression. We provide closed-form expressions for quantities involved in the loss gradient calculation in UORO, thereby making its implementation efficient. Training and cross-validation were performed during the first minute of each sequence. On average over the horizon values considered and the 9 sequences, UORO achieves the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) error and maximum error among the compared algorithms. These errors are respectively equal to 1.3mm and 8.8mm, and the prediction time per time step was lower than 2.8ms (Dell Intel core i9-9900K 3.60 GHz). Linear regression has the lowest RMS error for the horizon values 0.1s and 0.2s, followed by LMS for horizon values between 0.3s and 0.5s, and UORO for horizon values greater than 0.6s.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Long-horizon failure in world models is conventionally attributed to compounding error, a generic framing that does not distinguish what kind of error compounds. We propose a kinematic-vs-dynamic reframing: world models tend to imagine kinematically rather than dynamically. We operationalize this as the imagined Kinematic-Consistency Error, a per-step diagnostic that measures how far a rollout departs from a closed-form kinematic null, paired with a perturbation protocol that tests whether iKCE responds when physical conditions cross a regime boundary. We instantiate the diagnostic on a released DreamerV3 checkpoint trained on DMC walker-walk, where imagined iKCE runs roughly two orders of magnitude above that of matched real-physics rollouts. Across a friction sweep that crosses the gait-collapse boundary, the model's iKCE stays statistically flat even as the trained policy's reward collapses through the same range, providing the kinematic-not-dynamic signature. The diagnostic distinguishes kinematic from dynamic imagination at horizons longer than the embodiment's gait period.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

Respiratory motion complicates accurate irradiation of thoraco-abdominal tumors during radiotherapy, as treatment-system latency entails target-location uncertainties. This work addresses frame forecasting in chest and liver cine MRI to compensate for such delays. We investigate RNNs trained with online learning algorithms, enabling adaptation to changing respiratory patterns via on-the-fly parameter updates, and transformers, increasingly common in time-series forecasting for their ability to capture long-term dependencies. Experiments used 12 sagittal thoracic and upper-abdominal cine-MRI sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU; the OvGU data exhibited higher motion variability, noise, and lower contrast. PCA decomposes the Lucas-Kanade optical-flow field into static deformation modes and low-dimensional, time-dependent weights. We compare various methods for forecasting these weights: linear filters, population and sequence-specific transformer encoders, and RNNs trained with real-time recurrent learning (RTRL), unbiased online recurrent optimization, decoupled neural interfaces, and sparse one-step approximation (SnAp-1). Predicted displacements were used to warp the reference frame and generate future images. Prediction accuracy decreased with the horizon h. Linear regression performed best at short horizons (1.3mm geometrical error at h=0.32s, ETH Zürich dataset), while RTRL and SnAp-1 outperformed the other algorithms at medium-to-long horizons, with geometrical errors below 1.4mm and 2.8mm on the sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU, respectively. The sequence-specific transformer was competitive for low-to-medium horizons, but transformers remained overall limited by data scarcity and domain shift between datasets. Predicted frames visually resembled the ground truth, with notable errors occurring near the diaphragm at end-inspiration and regions affected by out-of-plane motion.

AI agents have become capable of autonomously completing short, well-specified tasks. However, existing terminal benchmarks largely focus on simple problems that finish within minutes and are evaluated only by their final outcome. This setup overlooks intermediate progress and partial solutions, yielding sparse reward signals and an incomplete picture of agent capability. We introduce Long-Horizon-Terminal-Bench, a terminal benchmark of 46 long-horizon tasks spanning nine categories, including experiment reproduction, software engineering, multimodal analysis, interactive games, and scientific computing. Each task follows a Terminal-Bench-style setup with a reference solution or simulation engine, but is further decomposed into fine-grained graded subtasks. This design enables dense intermediate rewards and partial credit, allowing evaluation to capture not only whether an agent reaches the final goal, but also how far it progresses on open-ended workflows. Tasks in Long-Horizon-Terminal-Bench typically require hundreds of episodes and minutes to hours of execution, stressing long-horizon planning, long-context management, and iterative debugging rather than one-shot problem solving. We evaluate 15 frontier models and find that agents consume on average 9.9M tokens per task, with roughly 231 episodes and 85.3 minutes of execution time per run, making Long-Horizon-Terminal-Bench more demanding than prior terminal-based benchmarks. Even the strongest tested model achieves 15.2% pass@1 at a partial-reward threshold of 0.95 and 10.9% at a perfect-reward threshold of 1.0, while the mean pass rate across models is 4.3% and 1.7% under the two thresholds, respectively. These results reveal headroom for improvement. We further analyze failure modes and error patterns, and release Long-Horizon-Terminal-Bench to support future progress on long-horizon terminal agents.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown remarkable capabilities in robotic manipulation, but their performance is sensitive to the action chunk length used during training, termed horizon. Our empirical study reveals an inherent trade-off: longer horizons provide stronger global foresight but degrade fine-grained accuracy, while shorter ones sharpen local control yet struggle on long-term tasks, implying fixed choice of single horizons being suboptimal. To mitigate the trade-off, we propose a mixture of horizons (MoH) strategy. MoH rearranges the action chunk into several segments with different horizons, processes them in parallel with a shared action transformer, and fuses outputs with a light linear gate. It has three appealing benefits. 1) MoH exploits long-term foresight and short-term precision jointly within a single model, improving both performance and generalizability to complex tasks. 2) MoH is plug-and-play for full-attention action modules with minimal training or inference overhead. 3) MoH enables dynamic inference with adaptive horizons, which selects stable actions through cross-horizon consensus, achieving 2.5times higher throughput than baselines while preserving superior performance. Extensive experiments over flow-based policies π_0, π_{0.5}, and one-step regression policy π_{reg} demonstrate that MoH yields consistent and significant gains on both simulations and real-world tasks. Notably, under mixed-task setting, π_{0.5} with MoH reaches a new state-of-the-art with 99% average success rate on LIBERO after only 30k training iterations. Project page: https://github.com/Timsty1/MixtureOfHorizons

Can AI make progress on important, unsolved mathematical problems? Large language models are now capable of sophisticated mathematical and scientific reasoning, but whether they can perform novel research is still widely debated and underexplored. We introduce HorizonMath, a benchmark of over 100 predominantly unsolved problems spanning 8 domains in computational and applied mathematics, paired with an open-source evaluation framework for automated verification. Our benchmark targets a class of problems where discovery is hard, requiring meaningful mathematical insight, but verification is computationally efficient and simple. Because these solutions are unknown, HorizonMath is immune to data contamination, and most state-of-the-art models score near 0%. Existing research-level benchmarks instead rely on formal proof verification or manual review, both of which are expensive to scale. Using this platform, we find two problems for which GPT 5.4 Pro proposes solutions that improve on the best-known published results, representing potential novel contributions (pending expert review). We release HorizonMath as an open challenge and a growing community resource, where correct solutions to problems in the unsolved problem classes could constitute novel results in the mathematical literature.

As LLM agents tackle increasingly complex tasks, a critical question is whether they can maintain strategic coherence over long horizons: planning under uncertainty, learning from delayed feedback, and adapting when early mistakes compound. We introduce YC-Bench, a benchmark that evaluates these capabilities by tasking an agent with running a simulated startup over a one-year horizon spanning hundreds of turns. The agent must manage employees, select task contracts, and maintain profitability in a partially observable environment where adversarial clients and growing payroll create compounding consequences for poor decisions. We evaluate 12 models, both proprietary and open source, across 3 seeds each. Only three models consistently surpass the starting capital of \200K, with Claude Opus 4.6 achieving the highest average final funds at 1.27 M, followed by GLM-5 at \1.21 M at 11\times lower inference cost. Scratchpad usage, the sole mechanism for persisting information across context truncation, is the strongest predictor of success, and adversarial client detection is the primary failure mode, accounting for 47\% of bankruptcies. Our analysis reveals that frontier models still fail through distinct failure modes such as over-parallelization, demonstrating the capability gaps for long-horizon performance. YC-Bench$ is open-source, reproducible, and configurable.

We study the problem of learning in the stochastic shortest path (SSP) setting, where an agent seeks to minimize the expected cost accumulated before reaching a goal state. We design a novel model-based algorithm EB-SSP that carefully skews the empirical transitions and perturbs the empirical costs with an exploration bonus to induce an optimistic SSP problem whose associated value iteration scheme is guaranteed to converge. We prove that EB-SSP achieves the minimax regret rate O(B_{star} S A K), where K is the number of episodes, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, and B_{star} bounds the expected cumulative cost of the optimal policy from any state, thus closing the gap with the lower bound. Interestingly, EB-SSP obtains this result while being parameter-free, i.e., it does not require any prior knowledge of B_{star}, nor of T_{star}, which bounds the expected time-to-goal of the optimal policy from any state. Furthermore, we illustrate various cases (e.g., positive costs, or general costs when an order-accurate estimate of T_{star} is available) where the regret only contains a logarithmic dependence on T_{star}, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound beyond the finite-horizon MDP setting.

A recent line of works showed regret bounds in reinforcement learning (RL) can be (nearly) independent of planning horizon, a.k.a.~the horizon-free bounds. However, these regret bounds only apply to settings where a polynomial dependency on the size of transition model is allowed, such as tabular Markov Decision Process (MDP) and linear mixture MDP. We give the first horizon-free bound for the popular linear MDP setting where the size of the transition model can be exponentially large or even uncountable. In contrast to prior works which explicitly estimate the transition model and compute the inhomogeneous value functions at different time steps, we directly estimate the value functions and confidence sets. We obtain the horizon-free bound by: (1) maintaining multiple weighted least square estimators for the value functions; and (2) a structural lemma which shows the maximal total variation of the inhomogeneous value functions is bounded by a polynomial factor of the feature dimension.

The grand vision of enabling persistent, large-scale 3D visual geometry understanding is shackled by the irreconcilable demands of scalability and long-term stability. While offline models like VGGT achieve inspiring geometry capability, their batch-based nature renders them irrelevant for live systems. Streaming architectures, though the intended solution for live operation, have proven inadequate. Existing methods either fail to support truly infinite-horizon inputs or suffer from catastrophic drift over long sequences. We shatter this long-standing dilemma with InfiniteVGGT, a causal visual geometry transformer that operationalizes the concept of a rolling memory through a bounded yet adaptive and perpetually expressive KV cache. Capitalizing on this, we devise a training-free, attention-agnostic pruning strategy that intelligently discards obsolete information, effectively ``rolling'' the memory forward with each new frame. Fully compatible with FlashAttention, InfiniteVGGT finally alleviates the compromise, enabling infinite-horizon streaming while outperforming existing streaming methods in long-term stability. The ultimate test for such a system is its performance over a truly infinite horizon, a capability that has been impossible to rigorously validate due to the lack of extremely long-term, continuous benchmarks. To address this critical gap, we introduce the Long3D benchmark, which, for the first time, enables a rigorous evaluation of continuous 3D geometry estimation on sequences about 10,000 frames. This provides the definitive evaluation platform for future research in long-term 3D geometry understanding. Code is available at: https://github.com/AutoLab-SAI-SJTU/InfiniteVGGT

Multi-turn long-horizon planning is critical for foundation model agents, yet how to fundamentally improve it remains unclear. Existing models are trained on uncontrollable and opaque Internet data, making it difficult to identify how planning ability is acquired, shaped, and integrated. To address this challenge, we introduce a unified and controlled multi-turn environment that enables precise control. It allows systematically study long-horizon planning across three stages. (1) Planning ability acquisition during pre-training. We study data format, distribution, and quality. Explicit world model construction through CoT state transition modeling yields stronger long-horizon generalization. Atomic skills alone are insufficient for compositional generalization, whereas a litte long-horizon data works. Moreover, suboptimal trajectories severely impair performance because errors amplify over long horizons. (2) Planning ability shaping via GRPO and OPD post-training. Through mutual information, we distinguish general planning patterns from task-specific planning knowledge. For planning patterns, we identify three application regions of post-training: unnecessary, effective, and unsupported. OPD has a broader effective region than GRPO under low-quality and long-horizon settings, as it provides more consistent update directions. For planning knowledge, distilling unseen procedures from a teacher with different knowledge may impair student's prior world modeling without fully establishing new knowledge. (3) Planning ability integration through MOPD post-training. We show that multi-teacher on-policy distillation (MOPD) integrates capabilities by converging to shared planning-pattern across environments. Compatible patterns enable cross-environment generalization, partially shared patterns support continual learning, while completely conflicting patterns cause severe interference.

Off-policy, value-based reinforcement learning methods such as Q-learning are appealing because they can learn from arbitrary experience, including data collected by older policies or other agents. In practice, however, bootstrapping makes long-horizon learning brittle: estimation errors at later states propagate backward through temporal-difference (TD) updates and can compound over time. We propose long-horizon Q-learning (LQL), which introduces a principled backstop against compounding error when learning the optimal action-value function. LQL builds on a prior optimality tightening observation: any realized action sequence lower-bounds what the optimal policy can achieve in expectation, so acting optimally earlier should not be worse than following the observed actions for several steps before switching to optimal behavior. Our contribution is to turn this inequality into a practical stabilization mechanism for Q-learning by using a hinge loss to penalize violations of these bounds. Importantly, LQL computes these penalties using network outputs already produced for the TD error, requiring no auxiliary networks and no additional forward passes relative to Q-learning. When combined with multiple state-of-the-art methods on a range of online and offline-to-online benchmarks, LQL consistently outperforms both 1-step TD and n-step TD learning at similar runtime.

Large language model (LLM) agents perform strongly on short- and mid-horizon tasks, but often break down on long-horizon tasks that require extended, interdependent action sequences. Despite rapid progress in agentic systems, these long-horizon failures remain poorly characterized, hindering principled diagnosis and comparison across domains. To address this gap, we introduce HORIZON, an initial cross-domain diagnostic benchmark for systematically constructing tasks and analyzing long-horizon failure behaviors in LLM-based agents. Using HORIZON, we evaluate state-of-the-art (SOTA) agents from multiple model families (GPT-5 variants and Claude models), collecting 3100+ trajectories across four representative agentic domains to study horizon-dependent degradation patterns. We further propose a trajectory-grounded LLM-as-a-Judge pipeline for scalable and reproducible failure attribution, and validate it with human annotation on trajectories, achieving strong agreement (inter-annotator κ=0.61; human-judge κ=0.84). Our findings offer an initial methodological step toward systematic, cross-domain analysis of long-horizon agent failures and offer practical guidance for building more reliable long-horizon agents. We release our project website at https://xwang2775.github.io/horizon-leaderboard/{HORIZON Leaderboard} and welcome contributions from the community.

Neural surrogates promise large speedups over classical solvers for physical dynamics but fail silently at sharp dynamical events such as shocks, fronts, and contact. We present hybrid neural world models for physical dynamics: a recipe for training and deploying multi-horizon surrogates in physical state space, where a single network with continuous horizon conditioning is trained with direct supervision against textbook reference solvers to predict any future state at horizon T in one forward pass. Although no part of the training data, loss function, or architecture supervises discontinuity location, the trained surrogate encodes it implicitly, recoverable from its forward passes alone as a per-trajectory error map that concentrates on shocks, fronts, and contacts, and stays small elsewhere. The map is competitive with or better than standard label-free baselines including deep ensembles, learned error heads, gradient-magnitude indicators, and locally-adaptive conformal prediction, while using only a single trained network and requiring no calibration set or governing-equation knowledge. The recipe supports two operating points. Mode 1 runs the surrogate alone for maximum throughput, with same-hardware CPU speedups of 26x to 72x against textbook solvers on the PDE environments. Mode 2 uses the error map to gate a reference-solver fallback, deferring uncertain trajectories and roughly halving the surrogate's residual error at the default operating point. The recipe applies without modification across reaction-diffusion, compressible Euler, and rigid-body collision dynamics.

Fast, geometry-generalizing surrogates for unsteady flow remain challenging. We present a time-dependent, geometry-aware Deep Operator Network that predicts velocity fields for moderate-Re flows around parametric and non-parametric shapes. The model encodes geometry via a signed distance field (SDF) trunk and flow history via a CNN branch, trained on 841 high-fidelity simulations. On held-out shapes, it attains sim 5% relative L2 single-step error and up to 1000X speedups over CFD. We provide physics-centric rollout diagnostics, including phase error at probes and divergence norms, to quantify long-horizon fidelity. These reveal accurate near-term transients but error accumulation in fine-scale wakes, most pronounced for sharp-cornered geometries. We analyze failure modes and outline practical mitigations. Code, splits, and scripts are openly released at: https://github.com/baskargroup/TimeDependent-DeepONet to support reproducibility and benchmarking.

Temporal credit assignment in reinforcement learning is often approached by introducing value estimates at multiple discount factors. A natural next step is to let the actor dynamically route among these temporal heads, using either differentiable attention or heuristic uncertainty weights. This paper argues that such routing can create a numerical shortcut rather than a reliable temporal abstraction. We study this issue in a controlled PPO setting on LunarLander-v2, using the environment as a visual sandbox for diagnosing failure modes. First, we formalize Surrogate Objective Hacking: a differentiable softmax router exposed to the PPO surrogate receives a direct gradient toward advantage heads that are numerically favorable for the current update, even when this routing change does not correspond to improved physical control. Because unnormalized advantages at different discount factors have different effective scales, this creates a scale-discrepancy vulnerability. Second, we identify the Paradox of Temporal Uncertainty in gradient-free error-based routing: short-horizon heads can receive the largest routing share because their prediction targets are easier, even when they are less aligned with delayed task success. As a structural response, we study Target Decoupling: the critic may retain multi-timescale auxiliary heads, but the actor is updated only with the long-horizon advantage. Target Decoupling is not presented as a broad performance booster; in this run set it removes the exploitable actor-side routing pathway and improves the observed worst-seed return. Code is available at https://github.com/ben-dlwlrma/Representation-Over-Routing.

We consider the exploration-exploitation dilemma in finite-horizon reinforcement learning problems whose state-action space is endowed with a metric. We introduce Kernel-UCBVI, a model-based optimistic algorithm that leverages the smoothness of the MDP and a non-parametric kernel estimator of the rewards and transitions to efficiently balance exploration and exploitation. For problems with K episodes and horizon H, we provide a regret bound of Oleft( H^3 K^{2d{2d+1}}right), where d is the covering dimension of the joint state-action space. This is the first regret bound for kernel-based RL using smoothing kernels, which requires very weak assumptions on the MDP and has been previously applied to a wide range of tasks. We empirically validate our approach in continuous MDPs with sparse rewards.

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental models to the fully dynamic setting when given predictions about the update times of the elements. In the most basic form of our model, we receive a set of predicted update times for all of the updates that occur over the event horizon. We give a novel framework that "lifts" offline divide-and-conquer algorithms into the fully dynamic setting with little overhead. Using this, we are able to interpolate between the offline and fully dynamic settings; when the ell_1 error of the prediction is linear in the number of updates, we achieve the offline runtime of the algorithm (up to poly log n factors). Provided a fully dynamic backstop algorithm, our algorithm will never do worse than the backstop algorithm regardless of the prediction error. Furthermore, our framework achieves a smooth linear trade-off between ell_1 error in the predictions and runtime. These correspond to the desiderata of consistency, robustness, and graceful degradation of the algorithms-with-predictions literature. We further extend our techniques to incremental and decremental settings, transforming algorithms in these settings when given predictions of only the deletion and insertion times, respectively. Our framework is general, and we apply it to obtain improved efficiency bounds over the state-of-the-art dynamic algorithms for a variety of problems including triconnectivity, planar digraph all pairs shortest paths, k-edge connectivity, and others, for prediction error of reasonable magnitude.

Trajectory-based data attribution methods estimate the influence of training samples on model predictions by unrolling the training trajectory. They are widely used in applications such as data selection, data valuation, and model diagnosis, but there is a lack of comprehensive error analysis of these methods, raising concerns about method faithfulness and hindering reliable deployment. In this work, we provide the first systematic analysis of error sources in trajectory-based data attribution, together with concrete remedies to mitigate them and practical guidelines for downstream use. We organize the total error into three categories, config-level, algorithm-level, and system-level. We make three contributions. First, we identify optimizer mismatch as the dominant config-level error: existing methods derive their attribution under the assumption of SGD, even for models trained with the modern de facto optimizer AdamW. We propose AdamW-influence to fully account for AdamW's optimization dynamics, yielding improvements from 10% to over 300% in Spearman correlation between estimated and ground-truth influence across four settings spanning MLP, CNN, GPT-2, and Llama 3.2-1B. Second, we isolate the remaining algorithm-level error arising from the first-order Taylor approximation, identify the learning rate and trajectory length as factors governing the error magnitude, and derive a closed-form error proxy that can be evaluated along the original trajectory without retraining. Third, we translate these insights into practical guidelines for data selection by unifying offline and online strategies under a K-step look-ahead framework. Under this framework, online selection with a short horizon often matches or exceeds offline, and the optimal horizon can be tuned jointly with the learning rate. Together, these results turn the framework into an actionable selection recipe for practitioners.

How do multi-turn reasoning systems fail? The expected answer is logical contradiction, in which the system's maintained state becomes unsatisfiable. We show that the dominant mode is instead satisfiable drift, where the internal state stays consistent while the returned answer silently violates prior commitments. We build DRIFT-Bench (Decomposing Reasoning Into Failure Types), a solver-instrumented benchmark of 816 test problems across three constraint domains, and evaluate four methods on it across four open-weight models (8B-120B parameters). MUS-Repair, which feeds minimal unsatisfiable subsets back to the generator, is strongest in every setting (+1.8 to +15.0 pp over the best non-MUS baseline). But the central finding is what repair leaves behind. After structured feedback, models rarely contradict themselves. They forget. Residual errors are 98-100% satisfiable drift across all settings, while contradiction drops to near zero. Reliable multi-turn systems must separately validate that the returned answer respects the maintained state. Code is available at https://github.com/kaons-research/drift-bench.

Recent studies have shown that episodic reinforcement learning (RL) is no harder than bandits when the total reward is bounded by 1, and proved regret bounds that have a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon H. However, it remains an open question that if such results can be carried over to adversarial RL, where the reward is adversarially chosen at each episode. In this paper, we answer this question affirmatively by proposing the first horizon-free policy search algorithm. To tackle the challenges caused by exploration and adversarially chosen reward, our algorithm employs (1) a variance-uncertainty-aware weighted least square estimator for the transition kernel; and (2) an occupancy measure-based technique for the online search of a stochastic policy. We show that our algorithm achieves an Obig((d+log (|S|^2 |A|))Kbig) regret with full-information feedback, where d is the dimension of a known feature mapping linearly parametrizing the unknown transition kernel of the MDP, K is the number of episodes, |S| and |A| are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. We also provide hardness results and regret lower bounds to justify the near optimality of our algorithm and the unavoidability of log|S| and log|A| in the regret bound.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise as interactive agents that solve tasks through extended sequences of environment interactions. While prior work has primarily focused on system-level optimizations or algorithmic improvements, the role of task horizon length in shaping training dynamics remains poorly understood. In this work, we present a systematic empirical study that examines horizon length through controlled task constructions. Specifically, we construct controlled tasks in which agents face identical decision rules and reasoning structures, but differ only in the length of action sequences required for successful completion. Our results reveal that increasing horizon length alone constitutes a training bottleneck, inducing severe training instability driven by exploration difficulties and credit assignment challenges. We demonstrate that horizon reduction is a key principle to address this limitation, stabilizing training and achieving better performance in long-horizon tasks. Moreover, we find that horizon reduction is related to stronger generalization across horizon lengths: models trained under reduced horizons generalize more effectively to longer-horizon variants at inference time, a phenomenon we refer to as horizon generalization.

Long-horizon Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling~(FJSP) presents a formidable combinatorial challenge due to complex, interdependent decisions spanning extended time horizons. While learning-based Rolling Horizon Optimization~(RHO) has emerged as a promising paradigm to accelerate solving by identifying and fixing invariant operations, its effectiveness is hindered by the structural complexity of FJSP. Existing methods often fail to capture intricate graph-structured dependencies and ignore the asymmetric costs of prediction errors, in which misclassifying critical-path operations is significantly more detrimental than misclassifying non-critical ones. Furthermore, dynamic shifts in predictive confidence during the rolling process make static pruning thresholds inadequate. To address these limitations, we propose Graph-RHO, a novel critical-path-aware graph-based RHO framework. First, we introduce a topology-aware heterogeneous graph network that encodes subproblems as operation-machine graphs with multi-relational edges, leveraging edge-feature-aware message passing to predict operation stability. Second, we incorporate a critical-path-aware mechanism that injects inductive biases during training to distinguish highly sensitive bottleneck operations from robust ones. Third, we devise an adaptive thresholding strategy that dynamically calibrates decision boundaries based on online uncertainty estimation to align model predictions with the solver's search space. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that Graph-RHO establishes a new state of the art in solution quality and computational efficiency. Remarkably, it exhibits exceptional zero-shot generalization, reducing solve time by over 30\% on large-scale instances (2000 operations) while achieving superior solution quality. Our code is available https://github.com/IntelliSensing/Graph-RHO{here}.

We study reward-free reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation, where the agent works in two phases: (1) in the exploration phase, the agent interacts with the environment but cannot access the reward; and (2) in the planning phase, the agent is given a reward function and is expected to find a near-optimal policy based on samples collected in the exploration phase. The sample complexities of existing reward-free algorithms have a polynomial dependence on the planning horizon, which makes them intractable for long planning horizon RL problems. In this paper, we propose a new reward-free algorithm for learning linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the transition probability can be parameterized as a linear combination of known feature mappings. At the core of our algorithm is uncertainty-weighted value-targeted regression with exploration-driven pseudo-reward and a high-order moment estimator for the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. When the total reward is bounded by 1, we show that our algorithm only needs to explore tilde O( d^2varepsilon^{-2}) episodes to find an varepsilon-optimal policy, where d is the dimension of the feature mapping. The sample complexity of our algorithm only has a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon and therefore is ``horizon-free''. In addition, we provide an Omega(d^2varepsilon^{-2}) sample complexity lower bound, which matches the sample complexity of our algorithm up to logarithmic factors, suggesting that our algorithm is optimal.

Autonomous agents have recently achieved remarkable progress across diverse domains, yet most evaluations focus on short-horizon, fully observable tasks. In contrast, many critical real-world tasks, such as large-scale software development, commercial investment, and scientific discovery, unfold in long-horizon and partially observable scenarios where success hinges on sustained reasoning, planning, memory management, and tool use. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these long-horizon challenges, leaving a gap in systematic evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce UltraHorizon a novel benchmark that measures the foundational capabilities essential for complex real-world challenges. We use exploration as a unifying task across three distinct environments to validate these core competencies. Agents are designed in long-horizon discovery tasks where they must iteratively uncover hidden rules through sustained reasoning, planning, memory and tools management, and interaction with environments. Under the heaviest scale setting, trajectories average 200k+ tokens and 400+ tool calls, whereas in standard configurations they still exceed 35k tokens and involve more than 60 tool calls on average. Our extensive experiments reveal that LLM-agents consistently underperform in these settings, whereas human participants achieve higher scores, underscoring a persistent gap in agents' long-horizon abilities. We also observe that simple scaling fails in our task. To better illustrate the failure of agents, we conduct an in-depth analysis of collected trajectories. We identify eight types of errors and attribute them to two primary causes: in-context locking and functional fundamental capability gaps. https://github.com/StarDewXXX/UltraHorizon{Our code will be available here.}

Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy. We take the opposite position: most of the gap can be closed at far lower cost by tuning preprocessing rather than scaling models. We use Ridge regression as the testbed, since it has a closed-form solution and interpretable weights, which let the optimal hyperparameters be read off the search directly. We search over context length, local normalization, regularization, and augmentation on eight standard benchmarks and find three patterns. (1) Optimal lookback is strongly series-specific and often non-monotonic in forecast horizon, with fitted power-law exponents ranging from +0.46 on ETTm2 to -0.19 on Exchange and Traffic, challenging the convention that longer horizons need longer history. (2) Normalizing over a learned trailing fraction of the context, rather than its entirety, is almost universally preferred. (3) Series within the same dataset often disagree on hyperparameters; the optimal degree of cross-series sharing varies from fully shared to fully per-series. The resulting models beat prior linear forecasters on most dataset-horizon entries and exceed Transformer, MLP, and CNN baselines on six of eight benchmarks. The optimized hyperparameters also serve as a diagnostic on the data itself, revealing structures that larger models absorb silently into their learned parameters.

Scientific and engineering progress is fundamentally a long-horizon iterative process: proposing changes, running experiments, measuring outcomes, and continuously refining artifacts. Yet existing benchmarks for frontier models primarily evaluate either single-turn responses or short-horizon agent trajectories, failing to capture the challenges of sustained iterative improvement over extended time horizons. To address this gap, we introduce AutoLab, a new benchmark for ultra long-horizon closed-loop optimization. AutoLab consists of 36 realistic, expert-curated tasks spanning four diverse domains: system optimization, puzzle & challenge, model development, and CUDA kernel optimization. Each task begins with a correct but deliberately suboptimal baseline and challenges agents to improve it within a strict wall-clock budget. Evaluating 17 state-of-the-art models reveals the dominant predictor of success is not the quality of an agent's initial attempt, but its persistence in repeatedly benchmarking, editing, and incorporating empirical feedback. While claude-opus-4.6 exhibits strong long-horizon optimization capabilities, most frontier models, including several proprietary ones, either terminate prematurely or exhaust their budgets with minimal progress. These results underscore the importance of time awareness and persistent iteration in autonomous agents. We open-source the full benchmark, evaluation harness, and task artifacts, to accelerate research toward truly capable long-horizon agents.

Most learning algorithms with formal regret guarantees assume that no mistake is irreparable and essentially rely on trying all possible behaviors. This approach is problematic when some mistakes are catastrophic, i.e., irreparable. We propose an online learning problem where the goal is to minimize the chance of catastrophe. Specifically, we assume that the payoff in each round represents the chance of avoiding catastrophe that round and aim to maximize the product of payoffs (the overall chance of avoiding catastrophe) while allowing a limited number of queries to a mentor. We first show that in general, any algorithm either constantly queries the mentor or is nearly guaranteed to cause catastrophe. However, in settings where the mentor policy class is learnable in the standard online learning model, we provide an algorithm whose regret and rate of querying the mentor both approach 0 as the time horizon grows. Conceptually, if a policy class is learnable in the absence of catastrophic risk, it is learnable in the presence of catastrophic risk if the agent can ask for help.

Large Language Model agents excel at solving complex tasks through iterative reasoning and tool use, but typically depend on ultra-large, costly backbones. Existing distillation approaches train smaller students to imitate full teacher trajectories, yet reasoning and knowledge gaps between the teacher and student often lead to compounding errors. We propose SCoRe, a student-centered framework in which the student generates trajectories and the teacher intervenes only at the first critical error, producing training data matched to the student's ability and exposing specific weaknesses. The student is first fine-tuned on corrected trajectories. Subsequently, short-horizon reinforcement learning starts from the verified prefix before the first critical error, with target rewards assigned at that step. This design encourages autonomous problem-solving beyond imitation and improves training stability. Particularly, on 12 challenging benchmarks, a 7B-parameter student distilled with SCoRe matches the agentic performance of a 72B-parameter teacher.

Understanding the loss landscape is an important problem in machine learning. One key feature of the loss function, common to many neural network architectures, is the presence of exponentially many low lying local minima. Physical systems with similar energy landscapes may provide useful insights. In this work, we point out that black holes naturally give rise to such landscapes, owing to the existence of black hole entropy. For definiteness, we consider 1/8 BPS black holes in N = 8 string theory. These provide an infinite family of potential landscapes arising in the microscopic descriptions of corresponding black holes. The counting of minima amounts to black hole microstate counting. Moreover, the exact numbers of the minima for these landscapes are a priori known from dualities in string theory. Some of the minima are connected by paths of low loss values, resembling mode connectivity. We estimate the number of runs needed to find all the solutions. Initial explorations suggest that Stochastic Gradient Descent can find a significant fraction of the minima.

We study the fairness of dynamic resource allocation problem under the α-fairness criterion. We recognize two different fairness objectives that naturally arise in this problem: the well-understood slot-fairness objective that aims to ensure fairness at every timeslot, and the less explored horizon-fairness objective that aims to ensure fairness across utilities accumulated over a time horizon. We argue that horizon-fairness comes at a lower price in terms of social welfare. We study horizon-fairness with the regret as a performance metric and show that vanishing regret cannot be achieved in presence of an unrestricted adversary. We propose restrictions on the adversary's capabilities corresponding to realistic scenarios and an online policy that indeed guarantees vanishing regret under these restrictions. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed fairness framework to a representative resource management problem considering a virtualized caching system where different caches cooperate to serve content requests.

Autoregressive video world models predict future visual observations conditioned on actions. While effective over short horizons, these models often struggle with long-horizon generation, as small prediction errors accumulate over time. Prior methods alleviate this by introducing pre-trained teacher models and sequence-level distribution matching, which incur additional computational cost and fail to prevent error propagation beyond the training horizon. In this work, we propose LIVE, a Long-horizon Interactive Video world modEl that enforces bounded error accumulation via a novel cycle-consistency objective, thereby eliminating the need for teacher-based distillation. Specifically, LIVE first performs a forward rollout from ground-truth frames and then applies a reverse generation process to reconstruct the initial state. The diffusion loss is subsequently computed on the reconstructed terminal state, providing an explicit constraint on long-horizon error propagation. Moreover, we provide an unified view that encompasses different approaches and introduce progressive training curriculum to stabilize training. Experiments demonstrate that LIVE achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon benchmarks, generating stable, high-quality videos far beyond training rollout lengths.

Despite rapid progress on AI benchmarks, the real-world meaning of benchmark performance remains unclear. To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate. We first timed humans with relevant domain expertise on a combination of RE-Bench, HCAST, and 66 novel shorter tasks. On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furthermore, frontier AI time horizon has been doubling approximately every seven months since 2019, though the trend may have accelerated in 2024. The increase in AI models' time horizons seems to be primarily driven by greater reliability and ability to adapt to mistakes, combined with better logical reasoning and tool use capabilities. We discuss the limitations of our results -- including their degree of external validity -- and the implications of increased autonomy for dangerous capabilities. If these results generalize to real-world software tasks, extrapolation of this trend predicts that within 5 years, AI systems will be capable of automating many software tasks that currently take humans a month.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

The rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) has outpaced the evolution of single-GPU hardware, making model scale increasingly constrained by memory capacity rather than computation. While modern training systems extend GPU memory through distributed parallelism and offloading across CPU and storage tiers, they fundamentally retain a GPU-centric execution paradigm in which GPUs host persistent model replicas and full autograd graphs. As a result, scaling large models remains tightly coupled to multi-GPU clusters, complex distributed runtimes, and unpredictable host memory consumption, creating substantial barriers for node-scale post-training workloads such as instruction tuning, alignment, and domain adaptation. We present Horizon-LM, a memory-centric training system that redefines the roles of CPU and GPU for large-model optimization. Horizon-LM treats host memory as the authoritative parameter store and uses GPUs solely as transient compute engines through a CPU-master, GPU-template execution model. By eliminating persistent GPU-resident modules and autograd graphs, employing explicit recomputation with manual gradient propagation, and introducing a pipelined double-buffered execution engine, Horizon-LM decouples model scale from GPU count and bounds memory usage to the theoretical parameter footprint. On a single H200 GPU with 1.5\,TB host RAM, Horizon-LM reliably trains models up to 120B parameters. On a standard single A100 machine, Horizon-LM achieves up to 12.2times higher training throughput than DeepSpeed ZeRO-3 with CPU offloading while preserving numerical correctness. Across platforms and scales, Horizon-LM sustains high device utilization and predictable memory growth, demonstrating that host memory, not GPU memory, defines the true feasibility boundary for node-scale large-model training.

We study the problem of planning under model uncertainty in an online meta-reinforcement learning (RL) setting where an agent is presented with a sequence of related tasks with limited interactions per task. The agent can use its experience in each task and across tasks to estimate both the transition model and the distribution over tasks. We propose an algorithm to meta-learn the underlying structure across tasks, utilize it to plan in each task, and upper-bound the regret of the planning loss. Our bound suggests that the average regret over tasks decreases as the number of tasks increases and as the tasks are more similar. In the classical single-task setting, it is known that the planning horizon should depend on the estimated model's accuracy, that is, on the number of samples within task. We generalize this finding to meta-RL and study this dependence of planning horizons on the number of tasks. Based on our theoretical findings, we derive heuristics for selecting slowly increasing discount factors, and we validate its significance empirically.

Modern reinforcement learning (RL) systems capture deep truths about general, human problem-solving. In domains where new data can be simulated cheaply, these systems uncover sequential decision-making policies that far exceed the ability of any human. Society faces many problems whose solutions require this skill, but they are often in domains where new data cannot be cheaply simulated. In such scenarios, we can learn simulators from existing data, but these will only ever be approximately correct, and can be pathologically incorrect when queried outside of their training distribution. As a result, a misalignment between the environments in which we train our agents and the real-world in which we wish to deploy our agents is inevitable. Dealing with this misalignment is the primary concern of zero-shot reinforcement learning, a problem setting where the agent must generalise to a new task or domain with zero practice shots. Whilst impressive progress has been made on methods that perform zero-shot RL in idealised settings, new work is needed if these results are to be replicated in real-world settings. In this thesis, we argue that doing so requires us to navigate (at least) three constraints. First, the data quality constraint: real-world datasets are small and homogeneous. Second, the observability constraint: states, dynamics and rewards in the real-world are often only partially observed. And third, the data availability constraint: a priori access to data cannot always be assumed. This work proposes a suite of methods that perform zero-shot RL subject to these constraints. In a series of empirical studies we expose the failings of existing methods, and justify our techniques for remedying them. We believe these designs take us a step closer to RL methods that can be deployed to solve real-world problems.

Long-horizon tasks are common in real-world robotic deployments, yet failure detection for such tasks remains underexplored. Detecting failures in long-horizon robotic tasks is particularly challenging because failure onset is often ambiguous and dense temporal annotations are typically unavailable. We present Foresight, a failure detection framework that monitors manipulation trajectories using latent representations from an action-conditioned world model. Foresight is trained using only final task-level success or failure labels. By leveraging predictive world-model embeddings, our method provides a unified framework for failure detection across different policies. We further use functional conformal prediction (FCP) to calibrate detection thresholds adaptively. We evaluate Foresight with state-of-the-art vision-language-action policies in simulation on LIBERO-Long, ManiSkill-Long, and BEHAVIOR-1K, compare it against state-of-the-artfailure detection methods, and validate it on real robots with three long-horizon tasks on a ReactorX-200 arm and one task on a Franka arm. Our results suggest that action-conditioned world-model embeddings provide a scalable representation for reliable failure monitoring in long-horizon manipulation.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Long-horizon manipulation remains challenging for vision-language-action (VLA) policies: real tasks are multi-step, progress-dependent, and brittle to compounding execution errors. We present LoHo-Manip, a modular framework that scales short-horizon VLA execution to long-horizon instruction following via a dedicated task-management VLM. The manager is decoupled from the executor and is invoked in a receding-horizon manner: given the current observation, it predicts a progress-aware remaining plan that combines (i) a subtask sequence with an explicit done + remaining split as lightweight language memory, and (ii) a visual trace -- a compact 2D keypoint trajectory prompt specifying where to go and what to approach next. The executor VLA is adapted to condition on the rendered trace, thereby turning long-horizon decision-making into repeated local control by following the trace. Crucially, predicting the remaining plan at each step yields an implicit closed loop: failed steps persist in subsequent outputs, and traces update accordingly, enabling automatic continuation and replanning without hand-crafted recovery logic or brittle visual-history buffers. Extensive experiments spanning embodied planning, long-horizon reasoning, trajectory prediction, and end-to-end manipulation in simulation and on a real Franka robot demonstrate strong gains in long-horizon success, robustness, and out-of-distribution generalization. Project page: https://www.liuisabella.com/LoHoManip

Deep research requires agents to find answers that jointly satisfy multiple constraints. Discovering such answers is costly, whereas verifying a candidate can often be decomposed into tractable constraint-wise checks. This discovery--verification asymmetry suggests that a research agent should do more than simply search longer: it should recursively improve its current answer by verifying intermediate results and using the partially verified state to guide subsequent refinement. We introduce AREX, a family of Recursively Self-Improving (RSI) deep research agents. AREX alternates between an inner research loop that gathers evidence and constructs a provisional answer, and an outer self-improvement loop that audits the answer constraint-wise, identifies unresolved claims, and launches targeted follow-up research. To sustain RSI over long horizons, AREX learns an autonomous context-update tool that compresses growing interaction history into a compact improvement state preserving verified evidence and unresolved constraints, without relying on an external model. We train AREX on verified synthetic tasks and high-quality trajectories through agentic mid-training and long-horizon reinforcement learning. To mitigate sparse final rewards during long horizon learning, we emphasize key steps where decisive evidence is acquired or erroneous research directions are corrected. We instantiate a dense 4B model and a 122B-A10B Mixture-of-Experts model. Across BrowseComp, WideSearch, DeepSearchQA, Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), and other reasoning and tool-use benchmarks, AREX substantially outperforms comparable-scale baselines and remains competitive with models using substantially more activated parameters.

Large deep learning models offer significant accuracy gains, but training billions to trillions of parameters is challenging. Existing solutions such as data and model parallelisms exhibit fundamental limitations to fit these models into limited device memory, while obtaining computation, communication and development efficiency. We develop a novel solution, Zero Redundancy Optimizer (ZeRO), to optimize memory, vastly improving training speed while increasing the model size that can be efficiently trained. ZeRO eliminates memory redundancies in data- and model-parallel training while retaining low communication volume and high computational granularity, allowing us to scale the model size proportional to the number of devices with sustained high efficiency. Our analysis on memory requirements and communication volume demonstrates: ZeRO has the potential to scale beyond 1 Trillion parameters using today's hardware. We implement and evaluate ZeRO: it trains large models of over 100B parameter with super-linear speedup on 400 GPUs, achieving throughput of 15 Petaflops. This represents an 8x increase in model size and 10x increase in achievable performance over state-of-the-art. In terms of usability, ZeRO can train large models of up to 13B parameters (e.g., larger than Megatron GPT 8.3B and T5 11B) without requiring model parallelism which is harder for scientists to apply. Last but not the least, researchers have used the system breakthroughs of ZeRO to create the world's largest language model (Turing-NLG, 17B parameters) with record breaking accuracy.

We argue that progress toward AGI is theory limited rather than data or scale limited. Building on the critical rationalism of Popper and Deutsch, we challenge the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Observationally equivalent worlds can diverge under interventions, so observational adequacy alone cannot guarantee interventional competence. We begin by laying foundations, definitions of knowledge, learning, intelligence, counterfactual competence and AGI, and then analyze the limits of observational learning that motivate an error centric shift. We recast the problem as three questions about how explicit and implicit errors evolve under an agent's actions, which errors are unreachable within a fixed hypothesis space, and how conjecture and criticism expand that space. From these questions we propose Causal Mechanics, a mechanisms first program in which hypothesis space change is a first class operation and probabilistic structure is used when useful rather than presumed. We advance structural principles that make error discovery and correction tractable, including a differential Locality and Autonomy Principle for modular interventions, a gauge invariant form of Independent Causal Mechanisms for separability, and the Compositional Autonomy Principle for analogy preservation, together with actionable diagnostics. The aim is a scaffold for systems that can convert unreachable errors into reachable ones and correct them.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

State-of-the-art LLMs are powered by scaling -- scaling model size, dataset size and cluster size. It is economically infeasible to extensively tune hyperparameter for the largest runs. Instead, approximately optimal hyperparameters must be inferred or transferred from smaller experiments. Hyperparameter transfer across model sizes has been studied in Yang et al. However, hyperparameter transfer across dataset size -- or token horizon -- has not been studied yet. To remedy this we conduct a large scale empirical study on how optimal learning rate (LR) depends on token horizon in LLM training. We first demonstrate that the optimal LR changes significantly with token horizon -- longer training necessitates smaller LR. Secondly we demonstrate the the optimal LR follows a scaling law, and that the optimal LR for longer horizons can be accurately estimated from shorter horizons via such scaling laws. We also provide a rule-of-thumb for transferring LR across token horizons with zero overhead over current practices. Lastly we provide evidence that LLama-1 used too high LR, and estimate the performance hit from this. We thus argue that hyperparameter transfer across data size is an important and overlooked component of LLM training.

Hierarchical policies that combine language and low-level control have been shown to perform impressively long-horizon robotic tasks, by leveraging either zero-shot high-level planners like pretrained language and vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs) or models trained on annotated robotic demonstrations. However, for complex and dexterous skills, attaining high success rates on long-horizon tasks still represents a major challenge -- the longer the task is, the more likely it is that some stage will fail. Can humans help the robot to continuously improve its long-horizon task performance through intuitive and natural feedback? In this paper, we make the following observation: high-level policies that index into sufficiently rich and expressive low-level language-conditioned skills can be readily supervised with human feedback in the form of language corrections. We show that even fine-grained corrections, such as small movements ("move a bit to the left"), can be effectively incorporated into high-level policies, and that such corrections can be readily obtained from humans observing the robot and making occasional suggestions. This framework enables robots not only to rapidly adapt to real-time language feedback, but also incorporate this feedback into an iterative training scheme that improves the high-level policy's ability to correct errors in both low-level execution and high-level decision-making purely from verbal feedback. Our evaluation on real hardware shows that this leads to significant performance improvement in long-horizon, dexterous manipulation tasks without the need for any additional teleoperation. Videos and code are available at https://yay-robot.github.io/.

This paper introduces KLong, an open-source LLM agent trained to solve extremely long-horizon tasks. The principle is to first cold-start the model via trajectory-splitting SFT, then scale it via progressive RL training. Specifically, we first activate basic agentic abilities of a base model with a comprehensive SFT recipe. Then, we introduce Research-Factory, an automated pipeline that generates high-quality training data by collecting research papers and constructing evaluation rubrics. Using this pipeline, we build thousands of long-horizon trajectories distilled from Claude 4.5 Sonnet (Thinking). To train with these extremely long trajectories, we propose a new trajectory-splitting SFT, which preserves early context, progressively truncates later context, and maintains overlap between sub-trajectories. In addition, to further improve long-horizon task-solving capability, we propose a novel progressive RL, which schedules training into multiple stages with progressively extended timeouts. Experiments demonstrate the superiority and generalization of KLong, as shown in Figure 1. Notably, our proposed KLong (106B) surpasses Kimi K2 Thinking (1T) by 11.28% on PaperBench, and the performance improvement generalizes to other coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and MLE-bench.

We consider the problem of designing a smooth trajectory that traverses a sequence of convex sets in minimum time, while satisfying given velocity and acceleration constraints. This problem is naturally formulated as a nonconvex program. To solve it, we propose a biconvex method that quickly produces an initial trajectory and iteratively refines it by solving two convex subproblems in alternation. This method is guaranteed to converge, returns a feasible trajectory even if stopped early, and does not require the selection of any line-search or trust-region parameter. Exhaustive experiments show that our method finds high-quality trajectories in a fraction of the time of state-of-the-art solvers for nonconvex optimization. In addition, it achieves runtimes comparable to industry-standard waypoint-based motion planners, while consistently designing lower-duration trajectories than existing optimization-based planners.

We introduce Open-Reasoner-Zero, the first open source implementation of large-scale reasoning-oriented RL training focusing on scalability, simplicity and accessibility. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that a minimalist approach, vanilla PPO with GAE (lambda=1, gamma=1) and straightforward rule-based rewards, without any KL regularization, is sufficient to scale up both response length and benchmark performance, similar to the phenomenon observed in DeepSeek-R1-Zero. Using the same base model as DeepSeek-R1-Zero-Qwen-32B, our implementation achieves superior performance on AIME2024, MATH500, and the GPQA Diamond benchmark while demonstrating remarkable efficiency -- requiring only a tenth of the training steps, compared to DeepSeek-R1-Zero pipeline. In the spirit of open source, we release our source code, parameter settings, training data, and model weights across various sizes.

We pursue a vision for self-improving language models in which the model does not merely generate problems or traces to imitate, but constructs the environments that train it. In zero-data reasoning RL, this reframes self-improvement from a data-generation loop into an environment-construction loop, where each artifact is a reusable executable object that samples instances, computes references, and scores responses. Whether this vision sustains improvement hinges on a single property: the environments must exhibit stable solve--verify asymmetry, the model must be able to write an oracle once that it cannot reliably execute in natural language on fresh instances. This asymmetry takes two complementary forms. Some tasks are algorithmically hard to reason through but trivial as code: a dynamic program or graph traversal, compiled once, yields unboundedly many calibrated instances. Others are intrinsically hard to solve but easy to verify, like planted subset-sum or constraint satisfaction. Both create a durable gap between proposing and solving that the policy cannot close by gaming the verifier, and it is this gap that keeps reward informative as the learner improves. We instantiate this view in EvoEnv, a single-policy generator, solver method that synthesizes Python environments from ten seeds and admits them only after staged validation, semantic self-review, solver-relative difficulty calibration, and novelty checks. The strongest evidence comes from the already-strong regime: on Qwen3-4B-Thinking, fixed public-data RLVR and fixed hand-crafted environment RLVR reduce the average, while EvoEnv improves it from 72.4 to 74.8, a relative gain of 3.3%. Stable self-improvement, we suggest, depends not on producing more synthetic data, but on models learning to construct worlds whose difficulty stays structurally beyond their own reach.

Recent Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms making use of Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization as a core component have shown outstanding performance. Yet, only little is understood theoretically about why KL regularization helps, so far. We study KL regularization within an approximate value iteration scheme and show that it implicitly averages q-values. Leveraging this insight, we provide a very strong performance bound, the very first to combine two desirable aspects: a linear dependency to the horizon (instead of quadratic) and an error propagation term involving an averaging effect of the estimation errors (instead of an accumulation effect). We also study the more general case of an additional entropy regularizer. The resulting abstract scheme encompasses many existing RL algorithms. Some of our assumptions do not hold with neural networks, so we complement this theoretical analysis with an extensive empirical study.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) foundation models have recently achieved strong progress in embodied intelligence. To reduce policy-call frequency while preserving temporal coherence, most generative policies adopt an action chunk mechanism, executing multiple future actions in an open-loop manner under a fixed action horizon. However, this "predict-then-blindly-execute" paradigm sacrifices closed-loop reactivity: in contact-rich physical interactions, even small local perturbations can rapidly amplify within the open-loop blind spot, leading to compounding errors and ultimately task failure. To address this limitation, we propose VLA-Corrector, a lightweight corrective inference framework for action-chunked VLA policies. Without modifying the backbone policy weights, VLA-Corrector introduces a lightweight Latent-space Vision Monitor (LVM) that continuously compares predicted and actual visual feature evolution, enabling online detection of visual dynamics deviations. Once persistent deviation is detected, the system triggers a truncation event, discards the remaining stale actions, and invokes corrective replanning via Online Gradient Guidance (OGG). The detect-and-correct mechanism of VLA-Corrector naturally induces an event-triggered adaptive action horizon: it preserves long-horizon execution when the current chunk remains reliable, and invokes short-horizon corrective replanning when execution begins to drift. In doing so, VLA-Corrector mitigates the trade-off imposed by static horizons between execution robustness and policy-call frequency. It can be integrated into different VLA models without further retraining the VLA backbone, interrupting compounding errors while preserving much of the efficiency benefit of action chunking and substantially improving robustness in long-horizon, contact-rich robotic manipulation tasks.

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) offers a practical learning paradigm where goal-reaching policies are trained from abundant unlabeled (reward-free) datasets without additional environment interaction. However, offline GCRL still struggles with long-horizon tasks, even with recent advances that employ hierarchical policy structures, such as HIQL. By identifying the root cause of this challenge, we observe the following insights: First, performance bottlenecks mainly stem from the high-level policy's inability to generate appropriate subgoals. Second, when learning the high-level policy in the long-horizon regime, the sign of the advantage signal frequently becomes incorrect. Thus, we argue that improving the value function to produce a clear advantage signal for learning the high-level policy is essential. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective solution: Option-aware Temporally Abstracted value learning, dubbed OTA, which incorporates temporal abstraction into the temporal-difference learning process. By modifying the value update to be option-aware, the proposed learning scheme contracts the effective horizon length, enabling better advantage estimates even in long-horizon regimes. We experimentally show that the high-level policy extracted using the OTA value function achieves strong performance on complex tasks from OGBench, a recently proposed offline GCRL benchmark, including maze navigation and visual robotic manipulation environments.

We study regret minimization for reinforcement learning (RL) in Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs) with context in hindsight. We design a novel model-based algorithmic framework which can be instantiated with both a model-optimistic and a value-optimistic solver. We prove an O(mathsf{Var^star M Gamma S A K}) regret bound where O hides logarithm factors, M is the number of contexts, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, K is the number of episodes, Gamma le S is the maximum transition degree of any state-action pair, and Var^star is a variance quantity describing the determinism of the LMDP. The regret bound only scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound for LMDP. This is also the first problem-dependent regret bound for LMDP. Key in our proof is an analysis of the total variance of alpha vectors (a generalization of value functions), which is handled with a truncation method. We complement our positive result with a novel Omega(mathsf{Var^star M S A K}) regret lower bound with Gamma = 2, which shows our upper bound minimax optimal when Gamma is a constant for the class of variance-bounded LMDPs. Our lower bound relies on new constructions of hard instances and an argument inspired by the symmetrization technique from theoretical computer science, both of which are technically different from existing lower bound proof for MDPs, and thus can be of independent interest.

Self-evolving LLMs excel in verifiable domains but struggle in open-ended tasks, where reliance on proxy LLM judges introduces capability bottlenecks and reward hacking. To overcome this, we introduce G-Zero, a verifier-free, co-evolutionary framework for autonomous self-improvement. Our core innovation is Hint-δ, an intrinsic reward that quantifies the predictive shift between a Generator model's unassisted response and its response conditioned on a self-generated hint. Using this signal, a Proposer model is trained via GRPO to continuously target the Generator's blind spots by synthesizing challenging queries and informative hints. The Generator is concurrently optimized via DPO to internalize these hint-guided improvements. Theoretically, we prove a best-iterate suboptimality guarantee for an idealized standard-DPO version of G-Zero, provided that the Proposer induces sufficient exploration coverage and the data filteration keeps pseudo-label score noise low. By deriving supervision entirely from internal distributional dynamics, G-Zero bypasses the capability ceilings of external judges, providing a scalable, robust pathway for continuous LLM self-evolution across unverifiable domains.

In this paper, we propose a general framework for universal zero-shot goal-oriented navigation. Existing zero-shot methods build inference framework upon large language models (LLM) for specific tasks, which differs a lot in overall pipeline and fails to generalize across different types of goal. Towards the aim of universal zero-shot navigation, we propose a uniform graph representation to unify different goals, including object category, instance image and text description. We also convert the observation of agent into an online maintained scene graph. With this consistent scene and goal representation, we preserve most structural information compared with pure text and are able to leverage LLM for explicit graph-based reasoning. Specifically, we conduct graph matching between the scene graph and goal graph at each time instant and propose different strategies to generate long-term goal of exploration according to different matching states. The agent first iteratively searches subgraph of goal when zero-matched. With partial matching, the agent then utilizes coordinate projection and anchor pair alignment to infer the goal location. Finally scene graph correction and goal verification are applied for perfect matching. We also present a blacklist mechanism to enable robust switch between stages. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks show that our UniGoal achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on three studied navigation tasks with a single model, even outperforming task-specific zero-shot methods and supervised universal methods.

Safe navigation is essential for autonomous systems operating in hazardous environments. Traditional planning methods excel at long-horizon tasks but rely on a predefined graph with fixed distance metrics. In contrast, safe Reinforcement Learning (RL) can learn complex behaviors without relying on manual heuristics but fails to solve long-horizon tasks, particularly in goal-conditioned and multi-agent scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a novel method that integrates the strengths of both planning and safe RL. Our method leverages goal-conditioned RL and safe RL to learn a goal-conditioned policy for navigation while concurrently estimating cumulative distance and safety levels using learned value functions via an automated self-training algorithm. By constructing a graph with states from the replay buffer, our method prunes unsafe edges and generates a waypoint-based plan that the agent follows until reaching its goal, effectively balancing faster and safer routes over extended distances. Utilizing this unified high-level graph and a shared low-level goal-conditioned safe RL policy, we extend this approach to address the multi-agent safe navigation problem. In particular, we leverage Conflict-Based Search (CBS) to create waypoint-based plans for multiple agents allowing for their safe navigation over extended horizons. This integration enhances the scalability of goal-conditioned safe RL in multi-agent scenarios, enabling efficient coordination among agents. Extensive benchmarking against state-of-the-art baselines demonstrates the effectiveness of our method in achieving distance goals safely for multiple agents in complex and hazardous environments. Our code and further details about or work is available at https://safe-visual-mapf-mers.csail.mit.edu/.

Residual connections are the de facto mechanism for training deep neural networks stably. Geodesic Normalization (GeoNorm) recasts them on a Riemannian manifold, orthogonalizing each layer output against the current hidden state and applying the resulting update through the Riemannian exponential map. Every hidden state thus keeps a constant ell_{2}-norm, confining the residual stream to a hypersphere. The exponential map, however, is only one member of a broad family of retraction maps. We show that on the hypersphere this entire family collapses to a single scalar design choice. What distinguishes one retraction from another is only how the magnitude of an update is converted into a rotation angle within the plane spanned by the hidden state and the update. This view places Euclidean residual connections and GeoNorm in one framework. Instantiating it with the metric projection retraction and the Cayley retraction yields Proj-SpheretNorm and Cay-SpheretNorm, which are exactly norm-preserving yet require only algebraic operations. Both prove to be members of a one-parameter family of angular retractions, p-SpheretNorm, whose rotation angle saturates rather than growing without bound. The two methods above are recovered exactly at p = 1 and p = 2, while the identity map and GeoNorm arise only as limits at either end. On nanoGPT, all three methods outperform existing lightweight deep connection schemes, and the best validation loss is attained at finite p, indicating that the exponential map is not the preferred retraction for spherical residual streams but merely one end of a spectrum.

Tool-integrated reasoning (TIR) enables LLM agents to solve tasks through planning, tool use, and iterative revision, but outcome-only reinforcement learning in this setting suffers from sparse, delayed rewards and weak step-level credit assignment. In long-horizon TIR trajectories, an early irrecoverable mistake can determine success or failure, making it crucial to localize the first irrecoverable step and leverage it for fine-grained credit assignment. We propose Error-Localized Policy Optimization (ELPO), which localizes the first irrecoverable step via binary-search rollout trees under a fixed rollout budget, converts the resulting tree into stable learning signals through hierarchical advantage attribution, and applies error-localized adaptive clipping to strengthen corrective updates on the critical step and its suffix. Across TIR benchmarks in math, science QA, and code execution, ELPO consistently outperforms strong Agentic RL baselines under comparable sampling budgets, with additional gains in Pass@K and Major@K scaling, rollout ranking quality, and tool-call efficiency. Our code will be publicly released soon.

This work presents a novel online model-predictive trajectory planner for robotic manipulators called BoundMPC. This planner allows the collision-free following of Cartesian reference paths in the end-effector's position and orientation, including via-points, within desired asymmetric bounds of the orthogonal path error. The path parameter synchronizes the position and orientation reference paths. The decomposition of the path error into the tangential direction, describing the path progress, and the orthogonal direction, which represents the deviation from the path, is well known for the position from the path-following control in the literature. This paper extends this idea to the orientation by utilizing the Lie theory of rotations. Moreover, the orthogonal error plane is further decomposed into basis directions to define asymmetric Cartesian error bounds easily. Using piecewise linear position and orientation reference paths with via-points is computationally very efficient and allows replanning the pose trajectories during the robot's motion. This feature makes it possible to use this planner for dynamically changing environments and varying goals. The flexibility and performance of BoundMPC are experimentally demonstrated by two scenarios on a 7-DoF Kuka LBR iiwa 14 R820 robot. The first scenario shows the transfer of a larger object from a start to a goal pose through a confined space where the object must be tilted. The second scenario deals with grasping an object from a table where the grasping point changes during the robot's motion, and collisions with other obstacles in the scene must be avoided.

Fast Weight Programmers (FWPs) encode temporal dependencies through dynamically updated parameters rather than recurrent hidden states. Quantum FWPs (QFWPs) extend this idea with variational quantum circuits (VQCs), but existing implementations rely on multi-qubit architectures that are difficult to scale on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices and expensive to simulate classically. We propose gated QKAN-FWP, a fast-weight framework that integrates FWP with Quantum-inspired Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (QKAN) using single-qubit data re-uploading circuits as learnable nonlinear activation, known as DatA Re-Uploading ActivatioN (DARUAN). We further introduce a scalar-gated fast-weight update rule that stabilizes parameter evolution, supported by a theoretical analysis of its adaptive memory kernel, geometric boundedness, and parallelizable gradient paths. We evaluate the framework across time-series benchmarks, MiniGrid reinforcement learning, and highlight real-world solar cycle forecasting as our main practical result. In the long-horizon setting with 528-month input window and 132-month forecast horizon, our 12.5k-parameter model achieves lower scaled Mean Square Error (MSE), peak amplitude error, and peak timing error than a suite of classical recurrent baselines with up to 13x more parameters, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks (25.9k-89.1k parameters), WaveNet-LSTM (167k), Vanilla recurrent neural network (11.5k), and a Modified Echo State Network (132k). To validate NISQ compatibility, we further deploy the trained fast programmer on IonQ and IBM Quantum processors, recovering forecasting accuracy within 0.1% relative MSE of the noiseless simulator at 1024 shots. These results position gated QKAN-FWP as a scalable, parameter-efficient, and NISQ-compatible approach to quantum-inspired sequence modeling.

We consider the problem of global optimization with noisy zeroth order oracles - a well-motivated problem useful for various applications ranging from hyper-parameter tuning for deep learning to new material design. Existing work relies on Gaussian processes or other non-parametric family, which suffers from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm GO-UCB that leverages a parametric family of functions (e.g., neural networks) instead. Under a realizable assumption and a few other mild geometric conditions, we show that GO-UCB achieves a cumulative regret of O(T) where T is the time horizon. At the core of GO-UCB is a carefully designed uncertainty set over parameters based on gradients that allows optimistic exploration. Synthetic and real-world experiments illustrate GO-UCB works better than Bayesian optimization approaches in high dimensional cases, even if the model is misspecified.

Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate. We introduce HEPA (Horizon-conditioned Event Predictive Architecture), built on two key principles. First, a causal Transformer encoder is pretrained via a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA): a horizon-conditioned predictor learns to forecast future representations rather than future values, forcing the encoder to capture predictable temporal dynamics from unlabeled data alone. Second, we freeze the encoder and finetune only the predictor toward the target event, producing a monotonic survival cumulative distribution function (CDF) over horizons. With fixed architecture and optimiser hyperparameters across all benchmarks, HEPA handles water contamination, cyberattack detection, volatility regimes, and eight further event types across 11 domains, exceeding leading time-series architectures including PatchTST, iTransformer, MAE, and Chronos-2 on at least 10 of 14 benchmarks, with an order of magnitude fewer tuned parameters and, on lifecycle datasets, an order of magnitude less labeled data.

Policy gradient methods rely on a baseline to measure the relative advantage of an action, ensuring the model reinforces behaviors that outperform its current average capability. In the training of Large Language Models (LLMs) using Actor-Critic methods (e.g., PPO), this baseline is typically estimated by a Value Model (Critic) often as large as the policy model itself. However, as the policy continuously evolves, the value model requires expensive, synchronous incremental training to accurately track the shifting capabilities of the policy. To avoid this overhead, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) eliminates the coupled value model by using the average reward of a group of rollouts as the baseline; yet, this approach necessitates extensive sampling to maintain estimation stability. In this paper, we propose V_0, a Generalist Value Model capable of estimating the expected performance of any model on unseen prompts without requiring parameter updates. We reframe value estimation by treating the policy's dynamic capability as an explicit context input; specifically, we leverage a history of instruction-performance pairs to dynamically profile the model, departing from the traditional paradigm that relies on parameter fitting to perceive capability shifts. Focusing on value estimation at State Zero (i.e., the initial prompt, hence V_0), our model serves as a critical resource scheduler. During GRPO training, V_0 predicts success rates prior to rollout, allowing for efficient sampling budget allocation; during deployment, it functions as a router, dispatching instructions to the most cost-effective and suitable model. Empirical results demonstrate that V_0 significantly outperforms heuristic budget allocation and achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off between performance and cost in LLM routing tasks.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL) promises to provide agents that can perform any task in an environment after an offline pre-training phase. Forward-backward (FB) representations represent remarkable progress towards this ideal, achieving 85% of the performance of task-specific agents in this setting. However, such performance is contingent on access to large and diverse datasets for pre-training, which cannot be expected for most real problems. Here, we explore how FB performance degrades when trained on small datasets that lack diversity, and mitigate it with conservatism, a well-established feature of performant offline RL algorithms. We evaluate our family of methods across various datasets, domains and tasks, reaching 150% of vanilla FB performance in aggregate. Somewhat surprisingly, conservative FB algorithms also outperform the task-specific baseline, despite lacking access to reward labels and being required to maintain policies for all tasks. Conservative FB algorithms perform no worse than FB on full datasets, and so present little downside over their predecessor. Our code is available open-source via https://enjeeneer.io/projects/conservative-world-models/.

Achieving general-purpose robotic manipulation requires robots to seamlessly bridge high-level semantic intent with low-level physical interaction in unstructured environments. However, existing approaches falter in zero-shot generalization: end-to-end Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models often lack the precision required for long-horizon tasks, while traditional hierarchical planners suffer from semantic rigidity when facing open-world variations. To address this, we present UniManip, a framework grounded in a Bi-level Agentic Operational Graph (AOG) that unifies semantic reasoning and physical grounding. By coupling a high-level Agentic Layer for task orchestration with a low-level Scene Layer for dynamic state representation, the system continuously aligns abstract planning with geometric constraints, enabling robust zero-shot execution. Unlike static pipelines, UniManip operates as a dynamic agentic loop: it actively instantiates object-centric scene graphs from unstructured perception, parameterizes these representations into collision-free trajectories via a safety-aware local planner, and exploits structured memory to autonomously diagnose and recover from execution failures. Extensive experiments validate the system's robust zero-shot capability on unseen objects and tasks, demonstrating a 22.5% and 25.0% higher success rate compared to state-of-the-art VLA and hierarchical baselines, respectively. Notably, the system enables direct zero-shot transfer from fixed-base setups to mobile manipulation without fine-tuning or reconfiguration. Our open-source project page can be found at https://henryhcliu.github.io/unimanip.

Accurate Zeroth-Order (ZO) Hessian estimation is a cornerstone of derivative-free methods, essential for tasks such as bilevel optimization, Bayesian inference, and uncertainty quantification. However, obtaining a complete suite of low-variance estimators for the Hessian and its inverse in high-dimensional settings remains a significant challenge. To address this, we propose a unified framework that reinterprets ZO Hessian approximation through the lens of single-step Policy Optimization (PO). This perspective establishes a theoretical equivalence between general ZO Hessian estimators and the Hessian of a smoothed PO objective, unifying distinct classical randomized estimators as specific instances of baseline selection. Building on this foundation, we introduce ZoVH, a comprehensive suite of variance-reduced estimators for the full Hessian matrix, its regularized inverse, and the bias-corrected inverse Hessian-gradient product. ZoVH leverages two key techniques: (1) a unique optimal baseline derived to provably minimize variance, and (2) a query reuse strategy that incorporates historical function queries to enhance sample efficiency without inflating costs. Our rigorous theoretical analysis confirms the unbiasedness of the Hessian estimator, validates the variance optimality of our baseline, provides error bounds for the entire ZoVH suite, and establishes convergence guarantees for the resulting curvature-aware ZO algorithm. Extensive empirical results validate our theoretical findings, demonstrating that ZoVH achieves superior estimation accuracy and convergence performance in real-world applications. Code is available at https://github.com/Qjbtiger/ZoVH

Recent advances in coding agents suggest rapid progress toward autonomous software development, yet existing benchmarks fail to rigorously evaluate the long-horizon capabilities required to build complete software systems. Most prior evaluations focus on localized code generation, scaffolded completion, or short-term repair tasks, leaving open the question of whether agents can sustain coherent reasoning, planning, and execution over the extended horizons demanded by real-world repository construction. To address this gap, we present NL2Repo Bench, a benchmark explicitly designed to evaluate the long-horizon repository generation ability of coding agents. Given only a single natural-language requirements document and an empty workspace, agents must autonomously design the architecture, manage dependencies, implement multi-module logic, and produce a fully installable Python library. Our experiments across state-of-the-art open- and closed-source models reveal that long-horizon repository generation remains largely unsolved: even the strongest agents achieve below 40% average test pass rates and rarely complete an entire repository correctly. Detailed analysis uncovers fundamental long-horizon failure modes, including premature termination, loss of global coherence, fragile cross-file dependencies, and inadequate planning over hundreds of interaction steps. NL2Repo Bench establishes a rigorous, verifiable testbed for measuring sustained agentic competence and highlights long-horizon reasoning as a central bottleneck for the next generation of autonomous coding agents.

As machine learning has moved towards leveraging large models as priors for downstream tasks, the community has debated the right form of prior for solving reinforcement learning (RL) problems. If one were to try to prefetch as much computation as possible, they would attempt to learn a prior over the policies for some yet-to-be-determined reward function. Recent work (forward-backward (FB) representation learning) has tried this, arguing that an unsupervised representation learning procedure can enable optimal control over arbitrary rewards without further fine-tuning. However, FB's training objective and learning behavior remain mysterious. In this paper, we demystify FB by clarifying when such representations can exist, what its objective optimizes, and how it converges in practice. We draw connections with rank matching, fitted Q-evaluation, and contraction mapping. Our analysis suggests a simplified unsupervised pre-training method for RL that, instead of enabling optimal control, performs one step of policy improvement. We call our proposed method one-step forward-backward representation learning (one-step FB). Experiments in didactic settings, as well as in 10 state-based and image-based continuous control domains, demonstrate that one-step FB converges to errors 10^5 smaller and improves zero-shot performance by +24% on average. Our project website is available at https://chongyi-zheng.github.io/onestep-fb.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is a powerful framework for improving the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, current methods such as GRPO rely only on problems where the model responses to the same input differ in correctness, while ignoring those where all responses receive the same reward - so-called zero-variance prompts. In this work, we argue that such prompts are not useless but can, in fact, provide meaningful feedback for policy optimization. To this end, we introduce RL with Zero-Variance Prompts (RL-ZVP), a novel algorithm that extract learning signals from zero-variance prompts. RL-ZVP directly rewards correctness and penalizes errors even without contrasting responses, modulating feedback with token-level characteristics to preserve informative, nuanced signals. Across six math reasoning benchmarks, RL-ZVP achieves significant improvements of up to 8.61 points in accuracy and 7.77 points in pass rate over GRPO, while consistently outperforming other baselines that filter out zero-variance prompts. These results highlight the untapped potential of learning from zero-variance prompts in RLVR.

We study the problem of constrained efficient global optimization, where both the objective and constraints are expensive black-box functions that can be learned with Gaussian processes. We propose CONFIG (CONstrained efFIcient Global Optimization), a simple and effective algorithm to solve it. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that our algorithm enjoys the same cumulative regret bound as that in the unconstrained case and similar cumulative constraint violation upper bounds. For commonly used Matern and Squared Exponential kernels, our bounds are sublinear and allow us to derive a convergence rate to the optimal solution of the original constrained problem. In addition, our method naturally provides a scheme to declare infeasibility when the original black-box optimization problem is infeasible. Numerical experiments on sampled instances from the Gaussian process, artificial numerical problems, and a black-box building controller tuning problem all demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm. Compared to the other state-of-the-art methods, our algorithm significantly improves the theoretical guarantees, while achieving competitive empirical performance.

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

We study the problem of learning goal-conditioned policies in Minecraft, a popular, widely accessible yet challenging open-ended environment for developing human-level multi-task agents. We first identify two main challenges of learning such policies: 1) the indistinguishability of tasks from the state distribution, due to the vast scene diversity, and 2) the non-stationary nature of environment dynamics caused by partial observability. To tackle the first challenge, we propose Goal-Sensitive Backbone (GSB) for the policy to encourage the emergence of goal-relevant visual state representations. To tackle the second challenge, the policy is further fueled by an adaptive horizon prediction module that helps alleviate the learning uncertainty brought by the non-stationary dynamics. Experiments on 20 Minecraft tasks show that our method significantly outperforms the best baseline so far; in many of them, we double the performance. Our ablation and exploratory studies then explain how our approach beat the counterparts and also unveil the surprising bonus of zero-shot generalization to new scenes (biomes). We hope our agent could help shed some light on learning goal-conditioned, multi-task agents in challenging, open-ended environments like Minecraft.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Building humanoid robots capable of generalizable whole-body loco-manipulation in the real world remains a fundamental challenge. Existing methods either rely on laborious task-specific reward engineering, rigidly replay reference motions that fail to generalize, or depend on costly teleoperation that limits scalability. While human videos capture diverse human behaviors, motion priors inferred from them are inherently imperfect, suffering from occlusion, contact artifacts, and retargeting errors that render them unsuitable for direct policy learning. To address this, we present SUGAR, a scalable data-driven framework that converts diverse human videos into deployable humanoid loco-manipulation skills, without any task-specific reward engineering or reference-motion conditioning at inference. SUGAR proceeds in three stages. First, a fully automated pipeline extracts kinematic interaction priors including human-object motion trajectories and contact labels from unstructured human videos. Second, a privileged physics-based refiner uses a unified mimic reward and progressive state pool to transform imperfect priors into physically feasible, high-fidelity skills. Third, refined skills are distilled into a hierarchical autonomous policy consisting of a command generator and a command tracker. We evaluate SUGAR on six representative loco-manipulation tasks in simulation and real-world humanoid hardware. Our method substantially outperforms reference-tracking baselines, and performance scales clearly with the amount of human video data. It also achieves zero-shot real-world transfer with reliable closed-loop execution, autonomous failure recovery, and stable long-horizon performance under external perturbations. Project Page: https://tianshuwu.github.io/sugar-humanoid/

Large language models excel at short-horizon reasoning tasks, but performance drops as reasoning horizon lengths increase. Existing approaches to combat this rely on inference-time scaffolding or costly step-level supervision, neither of which scales easily. In this work, we introduce a scalable method to bootstrap long-horizon reasoning capabilities using only existing, abundant short-horizon data. Our approach synthetically composes simple problems into complex, multi-step dependency chains of arbitrary length. We train models on this data using outcome-only rewards under a curriculum that automatically increases in complexity, allowing RL training to be scaled much further without saturating. Empirically, our method generalizes remarkably well: curriculum training on composed 6th-grade level math problems (GSM8K) boosts accuracy on longer, competition-level benchmarks (GSM-Symbolic, MATH-500, AIME) by up to 2.06x. It also transfers significantly to diverse out-of-distribution ReasoningGym domains and long-context benchmarks, indicating broader generalization. Importantly, our long-horizon improvements are significantly higher than baselines even at high pass@k, showing that models can learn new reasoning paths under RL. Theoretically, we show that curriculum RL with outcome rewards achieves an exponential improvement in sample complexity over full-horizon training, providing training signal comparable to dense supervision. h1 therefore introduces an efficient path towards scaling RL for long-horizon problems using only existing data.

Large language models (LLMs) deployed for logical reasoning in knowledge-intensive domains exhibit a subtle but critical failure: coherence can be vacuously achieved through systematic abstention. A model that withholds commitment to either entailment or refutation satisfies negation consistency while providing no utility. We introduce Coherence Under Commitment (CUC), a dual-query evaluation paradigm that jointly measures consistency and decisiveness. CUC contributes three innovations: (1) a commitment score c(φ) = p(φ) + p(lnotφ) quantifying probability mass allocated to decisive outcomes; (2) a deterministic elicitation protocol via normalized YES/NO log probabilities, eliminating sampling variance; and (3) a 3-way decision framework (True/False/Uncertain) operationalizing the coherence-commitment trade-off into metrics. Experiments on four open-weight LLMs (1B-3B) across 204 FOLIO examples expose a sharp frontier. Qwen2.5-3B achieves near-zero contradiction (E[v_{neg}]{=}0.025) but only 7.4% coverage, while TinyLlama-1.1B reaches 79.4% coverage with violations on every example. Coherence-only evaluation would rank the abstaining model first; CUC exposes this as vacuous, and the frontier generalizes to LogiQA~v2 (ρ{=}0.97). We argue that evaluation must report both coherence and non-vacuous commitment and release a toolkit for standardized assessment.

Building autonomous robotic agents capable of achieving human-level performance in real-world embodied tasks is an ultimate goal in humanoid robot research. Recent advances have made significant progress in high-level cognition with Foundation Models (FMs) and low-level skill development for humanoid robots. However, directly combining these components often results in poor robustness and efficiency due to compounding errors in long-horizon tasks and the varied latency of different modules. We introduce Being-0, a hierarchical agent framework that integrates an FM with a modular skill library. The FM handles high-level cognitive tasks such as instruction understanding, task planning, and reasoning, while the skill library provides stable locomotion and dexterous manipulation for low-level control. To bridge the gap between these levels, we propose a novel Connector module, powered by a lightweight vision-language model (VLM). The Connector enhances the FM's embodied capabilities by translating language-based plans into actionable skill commands and dynamically coordinating locomotion and manipulation to improve task success. With all components, except the FM, deployable on low-cost onboard computation devices, Being-0 achieves efficient, real-time performance on a full-sized humanoid robot equipped with dexterous hands and active vision. Extensive experiments in large indoor environments demonstrate Being-0's effectiveness in solving complex, long-horizon tasks that require challenging navigation and manipulation subtasks. For further details and videos, visit https://beingbeyond.github.io/being-0.

Multi-step enterprise agent tasks fail in a characteristic way: single-pass inference has no checkpoint between deciding an answer and committing to it. We study one production system (Leni) whose architecture installs such checkpoints: verification loops (execute, observe, compare, correct) staffed by lightweight task-specialized post-trained models. We evaluate the unmodified production configuration on three public benchmarks stressing distinct failure modes: SpreadsheetBench Verified (silent computation error), BullshitBench v2 (premise confabulation), and the GAIA validation split (cascade error over long tool chains). The full system improves over its frontier base model by +11.0 percentage points on SpreadsheetBench (91.25% vs 80.25%, n=400, p<0.001), +7 to +10 percentage points on BullshitBench (98% vs 91%, n=100), and roughly +15 points on GAIA validation (75.2% pass@1, n=165; 83.0% best-of-k). Our central contribution is a decomposition of that uplift: most of it comes from scaffolding, routing, and specialist models rather than from the verification step itself, whose isolated contribution is small (+1.5 points) but concentrated at the top of the score distribution, where it converts otherwise-failing tasks. We instrument the loop end-to-end, yielding an empirical verifier confusion matrix (catch rate about 0.20, fix rate 0.75, no false-alarm regressions) that grounds a compounding-reliability model. Specialist-swap ablations suggest that the loop's value depends on who observes it: replacing the small trained verifier with the generating frontier model eliminates most rescues. A valid-premise control shows zero over-rejections in 100 expert-level questions.

Optimization (PPO) has been positioned by recent literature as the canonical method for the RL part of RLHF. PPO performs well empirically but has a heuristic motivation and handles the KL-divergence constraint used in LM-RLHF in an ad-hoc manner and suffers form reward oscillations, entropy collapse, value function drift, and sudden policy divergence that require frequent restarts and extensive hyperparameter tuning. In this paper, we develop a new pure on policy actor-critic RL method for the LM-RLHF setting. We present SAFE (Stable Alignment Finetuning with Entropy-aware control),a novel RLHF algorithm that combines a Double Soft-Min Critic for pessimistic value estimation with a new multi-layer stabilization framework combining entropy-gated KL regulation, and PID-controlled adaptive thresholds. Unlike standard PPO's symmetric KL penalties, SAFE distinguishes high-entropy exploration from low-entropy mode collapse and adjusts penalties dynamically based on reward velocity. Experiments on a 3B parameter model show SAFE achieves +5.15\% training-average reward than PPO (0.725 vs 0.689), negligible reward crashes, and superior KL control than ppo . Our method adds minimal computational overhead and provides an interpretable, crash-resistant RLHF framework that maintains aggressive learning speed while ensuring stable long-horizon optimization suitable for production deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/ryyzn9/SAFE

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) enables embodied agents to follow natural-language instructions. However, route-level instructions commonly encode spatial priors, such as orientation, distance, and layout, that are not explicitly available from onboard sensing at deployment in open, GPS-denied environments. Benchmark performance under such interfaces therefore jointly reflects visual navigation ability and the use of route structure explicitly supplied by the task description. As a complementary formulation, we propose Vision-Only Long-Horizon Navigation (VoLN), which shifts route-relevant information from externally supplied instructions and global guidance to locally observable in-scene cues. In VoLN, goal views specify the destination, while route-relevant information is available only through locally observable in-scene cues that the agent must detect, interpret, and select online. We instantiate VoLN for aerial navigation through VoLN-UAV, a 7,210-episode benchmark that combines long-horizon goal-directed flight, continuous 3D motion, large viewpoint changes, and context-dependent beacon selection. We further provide VoLN-MLLM as an initial reference baseline. It aligns self-supervised visual features with a structured semantic space and predicts short-horizon waypoint segments from observation history, goal views, retrieved visual--semantic tokens, and proprioception. On the five-environment Test-Unseen split, it obtains success rates of 7.4%, 4.5%, and 1.8% on Easy, Normal, and Hard episodes, respectively. These results provide an initial evaluation of VoLN and reveal substantial remaining challenges in long-horizon evidence integration, cross-view goal matching, and closed-loop stability. Project page: https://admire-ljb.github.io/VoLN-UAV/

Traditional methods for reasoning segmentation rely on supervised fine-tuning with categorical labels and simple descriptions, limiting its out-of-domain generalization and lacking explicit reasoning processes. To address these limitations, we propose Seg-Zero, a novel framework that demonstrates remarkable generalizability and derives explicit chain-of-thought reasoning through cognitive reinforcement. Seg-Zero introduces a decoupled architecture consisting of a reasoning model and a segmentation model. The reasoning model interprets user intentions, generates explicit reasoning chains, and produces positional prompts, which are subsequently used by the segmentation model to generate precious pixel-level masks. We design a sophisticated reward mechanism that integrates both format and accuracy rewards to effectively guide optimization directions. Trained exclusively via reinforcement learning with GRPO and without explicit reasoning data, Seg-Zero achieves robust zero-shot generalization and exhibits emergent test-time reasoning capabilities. Experiments show that Seg-Zero-7B achieves a zero-shot performance of 57.5 on the ReasonSeg benchmark, surpassing the prior LISA-7B by 18\%. This significant improvement highlights Seg-Zero's ability to generalize across domains while presenting an explicit reasoning process. Code is available at https://github.com/dvlab-research/Seg-Zero.

The integration of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models with World Models has gained increasing attention. One representative approach treats learned World Models as generative simulators, enabling policy optimization entirely within "imagination." However, when deployed as simulators for specific environments such as the LIBERO benchmark, existing World Models often suffer from poor generalization and long-horizon error accumulation. During closed-loop rollouts, these models are highly sensitive to initial-state perturbations; minor changes in color, illumination, and other visual factors can trigger cascading hallucinations, leading to severe blurriness or overexposure. Moreover, long-horizon error accumulation further degrades the quality and fidelity of predicted future states. These issues limit the reliability of World Models as simulators. To mitigate these problems, we propose Sword, a robust World Model framework. Our method introduces Structure-Guided Style Augmentation to disentangle the visual textures of interactive environments from task-relevant dynamics, thereby improving generalization. We further propose Dynamic Latent Bootstrapping, which maintains consistency between training and inference while keeping memory consumption low. Extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark show that our method significantly outperforms the baseline WoVR in terms of generalization, generation quality, robustness, fidelity, and the success rate of reinforcement-learning post-training for VLA models.

Online 3D reconstruction requires estimating camera pose and scene geometry under strict causal and bounded-memory constraints. Existing methods often suffer from drift, jitter, or collapse on long sequences. We trace these failures to a fundamental mismatch. Streaming geometry is inherently temporally heterogeneous, with evidence ranging from short-lived correspondences to persistent global scale. However, current architectures impose uniform and pathological influence patterns. For example, sliding windows enforce hard cutoffs, while ungated recurrence and causal attention cause cache saturation and spike-like attention sinks. To resolve this, we formalize geometric propagation as an evidence influence kernel and propose HorizonStream, a long-horizon Transformer that explicitly factorizes this kernel. For the long-range temporal factor, Geometric Linear Attention learns channel-wise decay rates to enable bounded, multi-timescale propagation of geometric evidence. For the short-range spatial factor, Geometric Local Attention with Spatiotemporal RoPE performs reliable 3D matching while suppressing attention sinks. Finally, Metric Readout Tokens recover stable scale and rigid pose directly from the persistent geometric state. Extensive experiments show that HorizonStream, trained on only 48-frame clips, generalizes stably to sequences exceeding 10,000\ frames with constant memory and linear time, achieving state-of-the-art streaming 3D reconstruction performance. Project Page: https://3dagentworld.github.io/horizonstream/

Real-world reinforcement learning (RL) is often severely limited since typical RL algorithms heavily rely on the reset mechanism to sample proper initial states. In practice, the reset mechanism is expensive to implement due to the need for human intervention or heavily engineered environments. To make learning more practical, we propose a generic no-regret reduction to systematically design reset-free RL algorithms. Our reduction turns reset-free RL into a two-player game. We show that achieving sublinear regret in this two-player game would imply learning a policy that has both sublinear performance regret and sublinear total number of resets in the original RL problem. This means that the agent eventually learns to perform optimally and avoid resets. By this reduction, we design an instantiation for linear Markov decision processes, which is the first provably correct reset-free RL algorithm to our knowledge.

The accurate modeling of dynamics in interactive environments is critical for successful long-range prediction. Such a capability could advance Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Planning algorithms, but achieving it is challenging. Inaccuracies in model estimates can compound, resulting in increased errors over long horizons. We approach this problem from the lens of Koopman theory, where the nonlinear dynamics of the environment can be linearized in a high-dimensional latent space. This allows us to efficiently parallelize the sequential problem of long-range prediction using convolution while accounting for the agent's action at every time step. Our approach also enables stability analysis and better control over gradients through time. Taken together, these advantages result in significant improvement over the existing approaches, both in the efficiency and the accuracy of modeling dynamics over extended horizons. We also show that this model can be easily incorporated into dynamics modeling for model-based planning and model-free RL and report promising experimental results.

Tracking points in videos is typically formulated as frame-to-frame correspondence, where each point is matched locally to the next frame. While this works over short horizons, errors accumulate under articulation, occlusion, and viewpoint change, leading to silent semantic drift that existing trackers cannot detect or correct. In this work, we revisit long-horizon tracking from a monitoring perspective and introduce QueST, a monitoring-by-design framework that treats interaction-relevant entities as persistent semantic queries rather than transient point tracks. Instead of local propagation, each query attends globally over spatio-temporal video features at every time-step, providing a stable semantic anchor across time. We further constrain query trajectories with lightweight 3D physical grounding, using geometric plausibility to suppress unbounded drift under occlusion. We evaluate QueST on long-horizon articulated sequences from PartNet-Mobility in SAPIEN and compare against RAFT-3D, CoTracker, and TAP-Net. QueST substantially reduces terminal drift achieving a 67.7% Absolute Point Error (APE) improvement over TAP-Net while better preserving identity over extended horizons. Our results show that embedding semantic monitoring directly into perception enables more reliable long-horizon tracking under distribution shift.

In the last three years, the largest dense deep learning models have grown over 1000x to reach hundreds of billions of parameters, while the GPU memory has only grown by 5x (16 GB to 80 GB). Therefore, the growth in model scale has been supported primarily though system innovations that allow large models to fit in the aggregate GPU memory of multiple GPUs. However, we are getting close to the GPU memory wall. It requires 800 NVIDIA V100 GPUs just to fit a trillion parameter model for training, and such clusters are simply out of reach for most data scientists. In addition, training models at that scale requires complex combinations of parallelism techniques that puts a big burden on the data scientists to refactor their model. In this paper we present ZeRO-Infinity, a novel heterogeneous system technology that leverages GPU, CPU, and NVMe memory to allow for unprecedented model scale on limited resources without requiring model code refactoring. At the same time it achieves excellent training throughput and scalability, unencumbered by the limited CPU or NVMe bandwidth. ZeRO-Infinity can fit models with tens and even hundreds of trillions of parameters for training on current generation GPU clusters. It can be used to fine-tune trillion parameter models on a single NVIDIA DGX-2 node, making large models more accessible. In terms of training throughput and scalability, it sustains over 25 petaflops on 512 NVIDIA V100 GPUs(40% of peak), while also demonstrating super linear scalability. An open source implementation of ZeRO-Infinity is available through DeepSpeed, a deep learning optimization library that makes distributed training easy, efficient, and effective.

Long-horizon reasoning requires an agentic runtime that can persist when evidence supports its current approach and pivot when measurements reveal failure, hidden constraints, or a misspecified objective. We present Argus, a persistent, self-evolving runtime in which Manager, Planner, Engineer, and Reviewer execute bounded missions over durable project state. Argus separates stable user intent from operational objectives, constraints, and verification criteria, and admits memories, skills, procedures, verifiers, routing decisions, and rejected routes only after role-owned review and, when available, task-native verification. Model weights remain fixed; self-evolution occurs through persistent runtime state and control policy, with autonomous execution between operator-owned escalation points. Across seven GPT-5.5 benchmark arenas, Argus achieves about 78% on SWE-Bench Pro versus 59% for Direct Copilot while using 1.41 times the aggregate tokens. After verification-gated self-evolution, mature SWE-Bench waves use 21% fewer solve-input tokens and 15% less active workflow time per task than startup waves, while recording 34 verifier recoveries and 22 strict review-loop rescues. Argus also reaches 76.8% on AARRI-Bench and a 28.0-point gap on mathematical data synthesis, with competitive GPU-kernel and language-model-training results. Beyond benchmarks, an optimized RWKV6 kernel was merged upstream; a multi-day mathematics campaign retained falsified routes and proof-backed frontier updates; and six paper pipelines completed 254 missions with 16 stage rollbacks. These results show that a fixed-weight, self-evolving harness can revise, recover, and accumulate verified approaches while producing structured trajectories for future supervised and reinforcement learning.

Agentic reinforcement learning has enabled large language models to perform complex multi-turn planning and tool use. However, learning in long-horizon settings remains challenging due to sparse, trajectory-level outcome rewards. While prior tree-based methods attempt to mitigate this issue, they often suffer from high variance and computational inefficiency. Through empirical analysis of search agents, We identify a common pattern: performance diverges mainly due to decisions near the tail. Motivated by this observation, we propose Branching Relative Policy Optimization (BranPO), a value-free method that provides step-level contrastive supervision without dense rewards. BranPO truncates trajectories near the tail and resamples alternative continuations to construct contrastive suffixes over shared prefixes, reducing credit ambiguity in long-horizon rollouts. To further boost efficiency and stabilize training, we introduce difficulty-aware branch sampling to adapt branching frequency across tasks, and redundant step masking to suppress uninformative actions. Extensive experiments on various question answering benchmarks demonstrate that BranPO consistently outperforms strong baselines, achieving significant accuracy gains on long-horizon tasks without increasing the overall training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/YubaoZhao/BranPO{code}.

The theory of state tracking in recurrent architectures has predominantly focused on expressive capacity: whether a fixed architecture can theoretically realize a set of symbolic transition rules. We argue that equally important is error control, the dynamics governing hidden-state drift along the directions that distinguish symbolic states. We prove that affine recurrent networks, a class of models encompassing State-Space Models and Linear Attention, cannot correct errors along state-separating subspaces once they preserve state representations. Consequently, practical affine trackers do not learn robust state tracking; rather, they learn finite horizon solutions governed by accumulated state-relevant error. We characterize the mechanics of this failure, showing that tracking remains readable only while the accumulating within-class spread remains small relative to the initial between-class separation. We demonstrate empirically on group state-tracking tasks that this breakdown is predictable: tracking collapses when the distinguishability ratio crosses the readability threshold of the trained decoder. Across trained models, the point of this crossing predicts the horizon at which downstream accuracy fails. These results establish that robust state tracking is determined not only by an architecture's theoretical expressivity but crucially by its error control.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have been widely-applied in ground-based vision-language navigation (VLN). However, the vast complexity of outdoor aerial environments compounds data acquisition challenges and imposes long-horizon trajectory planning requirements on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), introducing novel complexities for aerial VLN. To address these challenges, we propose a data-efficient Open-world aerial Vision-Language Navigation (i.e., OpenVLN) framework, which could execute language-guided flight with limited data constraints and enhance long-horizon trajectory planning capabilities in complex aerial environments. Specifically, we reconfigure a reinforcement learning framework to optimize the VLM for UAV navigation tasks, which can efficiently fine-tune VLM by using rule-based policies under limited training data. Concurrently, we introduce a long-horizon planner for trajectory synthesis that dynamically generates precise UAV actions via value-based rewards. To the end, we conduct sufficient navigation experiments on the TravelUAV benchmark with dataset scaling across diverse reward settings. Our method demonstrates consistent performance gains of up to 4.34% in Success Rate, 6.19% in Oracle Success Rate, and 4.07% in Success weighted by Path Length over baseline methods, validating its deployment efficacy for long-horizon UAV navigation in complex aerial environments.

Autonomous systems, such as self-driving cars and drones, have made significant strides in recent years by leveraging visual inputs and machine learning for decision-making and control. Despite their impressive performance, these vision-based controllers can make erroneous predictions when faced with novel or out-of-distribution inputs. Such errors can cascade into catastrophic system failures and compromise system safety. In this work, we compute Neural Reachable Tubes, which act as parameterized approximations of Backward Reachable Tubes to stress-test the vision-based controllers and mine their failure modes. The identified failures are then used to enhance the system safety through both offline and online methods. The online approach involves training a classifier as a run-time failure monitor to detect closed-loop, system-level failures, subsequently triggering a fallback controller that robustly handles these detected failures to preserve system safety. For the offline approach, we improve the original controller via incremental training using a carefully augmented failure dataset, resulting in a more robust controller that is resistant to the known failure modes. In either approach, the system is safeguarded against shortcomings that transcend the vision-based controller and pertain to the closed-loop safety of the overall system. We validate the proposed approaches on an autonomous aircraft taxiing task that involves using a vision-based controller to guide the aircraft towards the centerline of the runway. Our results show the efficacy of the proposed algorithms in identifying and handling system-level failures, outperforming methods that rely on controller prediction error or uncertainty quantification for identifying system failures.

When an LLM agent reads a confidential file, then writes a summary, then emails it externally, no single step is unsafe, but the sequence is a data leak. We call this safety drift: individually safe actions compounding into violations. Prior work has measured this problem; we predict it. SafetyDrift models agent safety trajectories as absorbing Markov chains, computing the probability that a trajectory will reach a violation within a given number of steps via closed form absorption analysis. A consequence of the monotonic state design is that every agent will eventually violate safety if left unsupervised (absorption probability 1.0 from all states), making the practical question not if but when, and motivating our focus on finite horizon prediction. Across 357 traces spanning 40 realistic tasks in four categories, we discover that "points of no return" are sharply task dependent: in communication tasks, agents that reach even a mild risk state have an 85% chance of violating safety within five steps, while in technical tasks the probability stays below 5% from any state. A lightweight monitor built on these models detects 94.7% of violations with 3.7 steps of advance warning at negligible computational cost, outperforming both keyword matching (44.7% detection, 55.9% false positive rate) and per step LLM judges (52.6% detection, 38.2% false positive rate) while running over 60,000x faster.

Online conformal prediction (OCP) seeks prediction intervals that achieve long-run 1-α coverage for arbitrary (possibly adversarial) data streams, while remaining as informative as possible. Existing OCP methods often require manual learning-rate tuning to work well, and may also require algorithm-specific analyses. Here, we develop a general regret-to-coverage theory for interval-valued OCP based on the (1-α)-pinball loss. Our first contribution is to identify linearized regret as a key notion, showing that controlling it implies coverage bounds for any online algorithm. This relies on a black-box reduction that depends only on the Fenchel conjugate of an upper bound on the linearized regret. Building on this theory, we propose UP-OCP, a parameter-free method for OCP, via a reduction to a two-asset portfolio selection problem, leveraging universal portfolio algorithms. We show strong finite-time bounds on the miscoverage of UP-OCP, even for polynomially growing predictions. Extensive experiments support that UP-OCP delivers consistently better size/coverage trade-offs than prior online conformal baselines.

Learning how to reach goals in an environment is a longstanding challenge in AI, yet reasoning over long horizons remains a challenge for modern methods. The key question is how to estimate the temporal distance between pairs of observations. While temporal difference methods leverage local updates to provide optimality guarantees, they often perform worse than Monte Carlo methods that perform global updates (e.g., with multi-step returns), which lack such guarantees. We show how these approaches can be integrated into a practical offline GCRL method that fits a quasimetric distance using a multistep Monte-Carlo return. We show our method outperforms existing offline GCRL methods on long-horizon simulated tasks with up to 4000 steps, even with visual observations. We also demonstrate that our method can enable stitching in the real-world robotic manipulation domain (Bridge setup). Our approach is the first end-to-end offline GCRL method that enables multistep stitching in this real-world manipulation domain from an unlabeled offline dataset of visual observations and demonstrate robust horizon generalization.

We verify that persistent observers in causally invariant hypergraph substrates satisfy the conditions of the Conant-Ashby Good Regulator Theorem. Building on Wolfram's hypergraph physics and Vanchurin's neural network cosmology, we formalize persistent observers as entities that minimize prediction error at their boundary with the environment. Applying a modern reformulation of the Conant-Ashby theorem, we demonstrate that hypergraph observers satisfy Good Regulator conditions, requiring them to maintain internal models. Once an internal model with loss function exists, the emergence of a Fisher information metric follows from standard information geometry. Invoking Amari's uniqueness theorem for reparameterization-invariant gradients, we show that natural gradient descent is the unique admissible learning rule. Under the ansatz M=F^2 for exponential family observers and one specific convergence time functional, we derive a closed-form formula for the regime parameter alpha in Vanchurin's Type II framework, with a quantum-classical threshold at kappa(F)=2. However, three alternative convergence models do not reproduce this result, so this prediction is strongly model-dependent. We further introduce the directional regime parameter alpha_{v_k} and the trace-free deviation tensor, showing that a single observer can simultaneously occupy different Vanchurin regimes along different eigendirections of the Fisher metric. This connects Wolfram and Vanchurin frameworks through established theorems, providing approximately 25-30% novel contribution.

Improving a language model today means retraining it: enormous compute, a new opaque model each cycle, non-deterministic output. We take the opposite path: the model stays frozen, and a persistent memory of verified solutions grows beside it. Once a problem family is solved and has passed an independent verification step that never consults the answer key, every new instance of that family is answered at zero generation tokens, bit-exact, deterministically. Across 180 fresh instances spanning nine problem families, four architectures from four vendors - dense and mixture-of-experts - each score 180/180 at zero generation tokens per answer: execution-bound capability decoupled from parameter scaling. A negative control attributes the capability fully to the memory: emptied, it solves nothing. The same verify-before-store contract holds for open-ended reasoning: 88/88 consistency-gated acceptances across all four models, machine-checked formal proof, and reasoning-method transfer at 77/80. Memory selection takes 1.4 microseconds; a full reuse completes in 6-23 ms at 36 mWh. Approximate similarity retrieval selects the wrong item 94.3% of the time on a 4,500-item verified store where exact addressing makes zero errors. The store also serves as working context at a scale no shipped engine matches: a 6,000,000-token movable window on a single 46 GB GPU at flat memory, where vLLM stops at 30,399 tokens and SGLang silently truncates past 32,000. On published benchmarks, frontier models remain far ahead of any 12B at raw from-scratch reasoning; on everything this system has solved and verified, the comparison inverts: a frontier API call pays a fresh generation pass on every query, forever, while verified reuse costs zero tokens and returns the identical bits every time. A public testbench with free, rate-limited access accompanies this report: https://corbenic-galahad-bench.hf.space

Compositional diffusion models offer a promising route to long-horizon planning by denoising multiple overlapping sub-trajectories while ensuring that together they constitute a global solution. However, enforcing local behavior over long chains is often insufficient for a coherent global structure to emerge. Recent works tackle this limitation through intrinsic search, which explores multiple paths during the denoising process. While intrinsic search improves global coherence, it comes at the cost of repeated evaluations of an already compute-heavy model. In this work, we argue that extrinsic search, performed outside the denoising process, offers a more effective mode of exploration for long-horizon planning while naturally enabling the use of classical algorithms to solve unseen combinatorial tasks at test time. Our eXtrinsic search-guided Diffuser (XDiffuser) first computes a plan over a state-space graph -- serving as a lightweight local connectivity oracle for the diffusion model. The plan is then used to guide denoising for a single trajectory, effectively offloading the burden of exploration. XDiffuser outperforms diffusion-based baselines on long-horizon tasks, with particularly large gains in the low-quality data regime and on unseen tasks beyond goal-reaching, including multi-agent coordination and TSP-style reasoning. Project website: https://yanivhass.github.io/XDiffuser-site/

User preferences evolve across months of interaction, and tracking them requires inferring when a stated preference has been changed by a subsequent life event. We define this problem as long-horizon personalization and observe that progress on it is limited by data availability and measurement, with no existing resource providing both naturalistic long-horizon interactions and the ground-truth provenance needed to diagnose why models fail. We introduce a data generator that produces conversations from a structured mental state graph, yielding ground-truth provenance for every preference change across 6-month timelines, and from it construct HorizonBench, a benchmark of 4,245 items from 360 simulated users with 6-month conversation histories averaging ~4,300 turns and ~163K tokens. HorizonBench provides a testbed for long-context modeling, memory-augmented architectures, theory-of-mind reasoning, and user modeling. Across 25 frontier models, the best model reaches 52.8% and most score at or below the 20% chance baseline. When these models err on evolved preferences, over a third of the time they select the user's originally stated value without tracking the updated user state. This belief-update failure persists across context lengths and expression explicitness levels, identifying state-tracking capability as the primary bottleneck for long-horizon personalization.

Water looks unchanged as it warms, then at a critical point it boils. We ask whether long-horizon language agents show an analogous transition in their implicit world models. In some parameter settings, changing state load by a small amount, or adding a single step of horizon, leaves behavior nearly unchanged; near a critical boundary, the same small change causes a sudden world collapse. We study this effect in a deterministic task family with exact per-step gold state. A large grid search over state cardinality, dependency density, horizon, branching, observation mode, and mutation rate reveals a phase diagram: a solved plateau, a narrow transition band, and a collapse floor. Per-step traces show the mechanism: world-state fidelity fails before action validity, so the agent is not merely choosing a bad action; it is acting from a corrupted world. Stronger models translate the critical boundary but do not remove the qualitative transition. These results make world-model collapse a measurable bottleneck for long-horizon agents.

Flow-based methods have achieved significant success in various generative modeling tasks, capturing nuanced details within complex data distributions. However, few existing works have exploited this unique capability to resolve fine-grained structural details beyond generation tasks. This paper presents a flow-inspired framework for representation learning. First, we demonstrate that a rectified flow trained using independent coupling is zero everywhere at t=0.5 if and only if the source and target distributions are identical. We term this property the zero-flow criterion. Second, we show that this criterion can certify conditional independence, thereby extracting sufficient information from the data. Third, we translate this criterion into a tractable, simulation-free loss function that enables learning amortized Markov blankets in graphical models and latent representations in self-supervised learning tasks. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code reproducing our experiments can be found at: https://github.com/probabilityFLOW/zfe.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for zero-shot annotation and LLM-as-a-judge tasks, yet their reliability hinges on how model-internalized priors interact with user-provided instructions. We investigate three dimensions of this interaction: (1) how an LLM's familiarity with data and task definitions affects performance, (2) the extent to which additional information in prompts can correct zero-shot errors ("decision stickiness"), and (3) model susceptibility to misaligned task definitions. Through experiments on toxicity detection across diverse datasets (spanning social media, gaming, news, and forums) using both dense and mixture-of-experts models, we find that nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with an overall rescue rate (fraction of initial errors corrected by prompting) of only 34.8%. High-confidence errors prove especially resistant to correction. When given misaligned definitions, LLMs follow them while maintaining confidence levels unchanged from the aligned condition. Crucially, we introduce Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF), which measures alignment between a model's internal concept and the task definition. After controlling for dataset-level confounds, DSF shows a positive association with model performance (partial r = +0.41), while three distinct memorization metrics (ROUGE-L, BERTScore, and embedding cosine similarity) all fail to show a positive association. These findings show the limitations of prompt-based correction in annotation tasks, highlighting the importance of definition alignment over text-level memorization.

In this study, we delve into an emerging optimization challenge involving a black-box objective function that can only be gauged via a ranking oracle-a situation frequently encountered in real-world scenarios, especially when the function is evaluated by human judges. Such challenge is inspired from Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), an approach recently employed to enhance the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) using human guidance. We introduce ZO-RankSGD, an innovative zeroth-order optimization algorithm designed to tackle this optimization problem, accompanied by theoretical assurances. Our algorithm utilizes a novel rank-based random estimator to determine the descent direction and guarantees convergence to a stationary point. Moreover, ZO-RankSGD is readily applicable to policy optimization problems in Reinforcement Learning (RL), particularly when only ranking oracles for the episode reward are available. Last but not least, we demonstrate the effectiveness of ZO-RankSGD in a novel application: improving the quality of images generated by a diffusion generative model with human ranking feedback. Throughout experiments, we found that ZO-RankSGD can significantly enhance the detail of generated images with only a few rounds of human feedback. Overall, our work advances the field of zeroth-order optimization by addressing the problem of optimizing functions with only ranking feedback, and offers a new and effective approach for aligning Artificial Intelligence (AI) with human intentions.

Many popular reinforcement learning problems (e.g., navigation in a maze, some Atari games, mountain car) are instances of the episodic setting under its stochastic shortest path (SSP) formulation, where an agent has to achieve a goal state while minimizing the cumulative cost. Despite the popularity of this setting, the exploration-exploitation dilemma has been sparsely studied in general SSP problems, with most of the theoretical literature focusing on different problems (i.e., fixed-horizon and infinite-horizon) or making the restrictive loop-free SSP assumption (i.e., no state can be visited twice during an episode). In this paper, we study the general SSP problem with no assumption on its dynamics (some policies may actually never reach the goal). We introduce UC-SSP, the first no-regret algorithm in this setting, and prove a regret bound scaling as displaystyle mathcal{O}( D S A D K) after K episodes for any unknown SSP with S states, A actions, positive costs and SSP-diameter D, defined as the smallest expected hitting time from any starting state to the goal. We achieve this result by crafting a novel stopping rule, such that UC-SSP may interrupt the current policy if it is taking too long to achieve the goal and switch to alternative policies that are designed to rapidly terminate the episode.

Recent trends in test-time scaling for reasoning models (e.g., OpenAI o1, DeepSeek-R1) have led to remarkable improvements through long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, existing benchmarks mainly focus on immediate, single-horizon tasks, failing to adequately evaluate models' ability to understand and respond to complex, long-horizon scenarios. To address this incomplete evaluation of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), we propose R-HORIZON, a method designed to stimulate long-horizon reasoning behaviors in LRMs through query composition. Based on R-HORIZON, we construct a long-horizon reasoning benchmark, comprising complex multi-step reasoning tasks with interdependent problems that span long reasoning horizons. Through comprehensive evaluation of LRMs using the R-HORIZON benchmark, we find that even the most advanced LRMs suffer significant performance degradation. Our analysis reveals that LRMs exhibit limited effective reasoning length and struggle to allocate thinking budget across multiple problems appropriately. Recognizing these limitations, we use R-HORIZON to construct long-horizon reasoning data for reinforcement learning with verified rewards (RLVR). Compared to training with single-horizon data, RLVR with R-HORIZON not only substantially improves performance on the multi-horizon reasoning tasks, but also promotes accuracy on standard reasoning tasks, with an increase of 7.5 on AIME2024. These results position R-HORIZON as a scalable, controllable, and low-cost paradigm for enhancing and evaluating the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of LRMs.

While long-horizon agentic tasks require language agents to perform dozens of sequential decisions, training such agents with reinforcement learning remains challenging. We identify two root causes: credit misattribution, where correct early actions are penalized due to terminal failures, and sample inefficiency, where scarce successful trajectories result in near-total loss of learning signal. We introduce a milestone-guided policy learning framework, BEACON, that leverages the compositional structure of long-horizon tasks to ensure precise credit assignment. BEACON partitions trajectories at milestone boundaries, applies temporal reward shaping within segments to credit partial progress, and estimates advantages at dual scales to prevent distant failures from corrupting the evaluation of local actions. On ALFWorld, WebShop, and ScienceWorld, BEACON consistently outperforms GRPO and GiGPO. Notably, on long-horizon ALFWorld tasks, BEACON achieves 92.9% success rate, nearly doubling GRPO's 53.5%, while improving effective sample utilization from 23.7% to 82.0%. These results establish milestone-anchored credit assignment as an effective paradigm for training long-horizon language agents. Code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-REAL/BEACON.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

Model-based reinforcement learning promises to learn an optimal policy from fewer interactions with the environment compared to model-free reinforcement learning by learning an intermediate model of the environment in order to predict future interactions. When predicting a sequence of interactions, the rollout length, which limits the prediction horizon, is a critical hyperparameter as accuracy of the predictions diminishes in the regions that are further away from real experience. As a result, with a longer rollout length, an overall worse policy is learned in the long run. Thus, the hyperparameter provides a trade-off between quality and efficiency. In this work, we frame the problem of tuning the rollout length as a meta-level sequential decision-making problem that optimizes the final policy learned by model-based reinforcement learning given a fixed budget of environment interactions by adapting the hyperparameter dynamically based on feedback from the learning process, such as accuracy of the model and the remaining budget of interactions. We use model-free deep reinforcement learning to solve the meta-level decision problem and demonstrate that our approach outperforms common heuristic baselines on two well-known reinforcement learning environments.

Synthesizing optimal controllers for dynamical systems often involves solving optimization problems with hard real-time constraints. These constraints determine the class of numerical methods that can be applied: computationally expensive but accurate numerical routines are replaced by fast and inaccurate methods, trading inference time for solution accuracy. This paper provides techniques to improve the quality of optimized control policies given a fixed computational budget. We achieve the above via a hypersolvers approach, which hybridizes a differential equation solver and a neural network. The performance is evaluated in direct and receding-horizon optimal control tasks in both low and high dimensions, where the proposed approach shows consistent Pareto improvements in solution accuracy and control performance.

Accurate long-horizon vessel trajectory prediction remains challenging due to compounded uncertainty from complex navigation behaviors and environmental factors. Existing methods often struggle to maintain global directional consistency, leading to drifting or implausible trajectories when extrapolated over long time horizons. To address this issue, we propose a semantic-key-point-conditioned trajectory modeling framework, in which future trajectories are predicted by conditioning on a high-level Next Key Point (NKP) that captures navigational intent. This formulation decomposes long-horizon prediction into global semantic decision-making and local motion modeling, effectively restricting the support of future trajectories to semantically feasible subsets. To efficiently estimate the NKP prior from historical observations, we adopt a pretrain-finetune strategy. Extensive experiments on real-world AIS data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, particularly for long travel durations, directional accuracy, and fine-grained trajectory prediction.