Daily Papers

The systematic evaluation and understanding of computer vision models under varying conditions require large amounts of data with comprehensive and customized labels, which real-world vision datasets rarely satisfy. While current synthetic data generators offer a promising alternative, particularly for embodied AI tasks, they often fall short for computer vision tasks due to low asset and rendering quality, limited diversity, and unrealistic physical properties. We introduce the BEHAVIOR Vision Suite (BVS), a set of tools and assets to generate fully customized synthetic data for systematic evaluation of computer vision models, based on the newly developed embodied AI benchmark, BEHAVIOR-1K. BVS supports a large number of adjustable parameters at the scene level (e.g., lighting, object placement), the object level (e.g., joint configuration, attributes such as "filled" and "folded"), and the camera level (e.g., field of view, focal length). Researchers can arbitrarily vary these parameters during data generation to perform controlled experiments. We showcase three example application scenarios: systematically evaluating the robustness of models across different continuous axes of domain shift, evaluating scene understanding models on the same set of images, and training and evaluating simulation-to-real transfer for a novel vision task: unary and binary state prediction. Project website: https://behavior-vision-suite.github.io/

Vulnerability prediction is valuable in identifying security issues more efficiently, even though it requires the source code of the target software system, which is a restrictive hypothesis. This paper presents an experimental study to predict vulnerabilities in binary code without source code or complex representations of the binary, leveraging the pivotal idea of decompiling the binary file through neural decompilation and predicting vulnerabilities through deep learning on the decompiled source code. The results outperform the state-of-the-art in both neural decompilation and vulnerability prediction, showing that it is possible to identify vulnerable programs with this approach concerning bi-class (vulnerable/non-vulnerable) and multi-class (type of vulnerability) analysis.

Multi-view Stereo (MVS) with known camera parameters is essentially a 1D search problem within a valid depth range. Recent deep learning-based MVS methods typically densely sample depth hypotheses in the depth range, and then construct prohibitively memory-consuming 3D cost volumes for depth prediction. Although coarse-to-fine sampling strategies alleviate this overhead issue to a certain extent, the efficiency of MVS is still an open challenge. In this work, we propose a novel method for highly efficient MVS that remarkably decreases the memory footprint, meanwhile clearly advancing state-of-the-art depth prediction performance. We investigate what a search strategy can be reasonably optimal for MVS taking into account of both efficiency and effectiveness. We first formulate MVS as a binary search problem, and accordingly propose a generalized binary search network for MVS. Specifically, in each step, the depth range is split into 2 bins with extra 1 error tolerance bin on both sides. A classification is performed to identify which bin contains the true depth. We also design three mechanisms to respectively handle classification errors, deal with out-of-range samples and decrease the training memory. The new formulation makes our method only sample a very small number of depth hypotheses in each step, which is highly memory efficient, and also greatly facilitates quick training convergence. Experiments on competitive benchmarks show that our method achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with much less memory. Particularly, our method obtains an overall score of 0.289 on DTU dataset and tops the first place on challenging Tanks and Temples advanced dataset among all the learning-based methods. The trained models and code will be released at https://github.com/MiZhenxing/GBi-Net.

Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present PolyBench, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at 17.6% CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at \href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

A significant gap remains between today's visual pattern recognition models and human-level visual cognition especially when it comes to few-shot learning and compositional reasoning of novel concepts. We introduce Bongard-HOI, a new visual reasoning benchmark that focuses on compositional learning of human-object interactions (HOIs) from natural images. It is inspired by two desirable characteristics from the classical Bongard problems (BPs): 1) few-shot concept learning, and 2) context-dependent reasoning. We carefully curate the few-shot instances with hard negatives, where positive and negative images only disagree on action labels, making mere recognition of object categories insufficient to complete our benchmarks. We also design multiple test sets to systematically study the generalization of visual learning models, where we vary the overlap of the HOI concepts between the training and test sets of few-shot instances, from partial to no overlaps. Bongard-HOI presents a substantial challenge to today's visual recognition models. The state-of-the-art HOI detection model achieves only 62% accuracy on few-shot binary prediction while even amateur human testers on MTurk have 91% accuracy. With the Bongard-HOI benchmark, we hope to further advance research efforts in visual reasoning, especially in holistic perception-reasoning systems and better representation learning.

In recent years, hate speech has gained great relevance in social networks and other virtual media because of its intensity and its relationship with violent acts against members of protected groups. Due to the great amount of content generated by users, great effort has been made in the research and development of automatic tools to aid the analysis and moderation of this speech, at least in its most threatening forms. One of the limitations of current approaches to automatic hate speech detection is the lack of context. Most studies and resources are performed on data without context; that is, isolated messages without any type of conversational context or the topic being discussed. This restricts the available information to define if a post on a social network is hateful or not. In this work, we provide a novel corpus for contextualized hate speech detection based on user responses to news posts from media outlets on Twitter. This corpus was collected in the Rioplatense dialectal variety of Spanish and focuses on hate speech associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Classification experiments using state-of-the-art techniques show evidence that adding contextual information improves hate speech detection performance for two proposed tasks (binary and multi-label prediction). We make our code, models, and corpus available for further research.

Despite significant advancements in image segmentation and object detection, understanding complex scenes remains a significant challenge. Here, we focus on graphical humor as a paradigmatic example of image interpretation that requires elucidating the interaction of different scene elements in the context of prior cognitive knowledge. This paper introduces HumorDB, a novel, controlled, and carefully curated dataset designed to evaluate and advance visual humor understanding by AI systems. The dataset comprises diverse images spanning photos, cartoons, sketches, and AI-generated content, including minimally contrastive pairs where subtle edits differentiate between humorous and non-humorous versions. We evaluate humans, state-of-the-art vision models, and large vision-language models on three tasks: binary humor classification, funniness rating prediction, and pairwise humor comparison. The results reveal a gap between current AI systems and human-level humor understanding. While pretrained vision-language models perform better than vision-only models, they still struggle with abstract sketches and subtle humor cues. Analysis of attention maps shows that even when models correctly classify humorous images, they often fail to focus on the precise regions that make the image funny. Preliminary mechanistic interpretability studies and evaluation of model explanations provide initial insights into how different architectures process humor. Our results identify promising trends and current limitations, suggesting that an effective understanding of visual humor requires sophisticated architectures capable of detecting subtle contextual features and bridging the gap between visual perception and abstract reasoning. All the code and data are available here: https://github.com/kreimanlab/HumorDB{https://github.com/kreimanlab/HumorDB}

The success of self-supervised learning in computer vision and natural language processing has motivated pretraining methods on tabular data. However, most existing tabular self-supervised learning models fail to leverage information across multiple data tables and cannot generalize to new tables. In this work, we introduce XTab, a framework for cross-table pretraining of tabular transformers on datasets from various domains. We address the challenge of inconsistent column types and quantities among tables by utilizing independent featurizers and using federated learning to pretrain the shared component. Tested on 84 tabular prediction tasks from the OpenML-AutoML Benchmark (AMLB), we show that (1) XTab consistently boosts the generalizability, learning speed, and performance of multiple tabular transformers, (2) by pretraining FT-Transformer via XTab, we achieve superior performance than other state-of-the-art tabular deep learning models on various tasks such as regression, binary, and multiclass classification.

Vision-threatening eye diseases pose a major global health burden, with timely diagnosis limited by workforce shortages and restricted access to specialized care. While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) show promise for medical image interpretation, advancing MLLMs for ophthalmology is hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmark datasets suitable for evaluating generative models. We present a large-scale multimodal ophthalmology benchmark comprising 32,633 instances with multi-granular annotations across 12 common ophthalmic conditions and 5 imaging modalities. The dataset integrates imaging, anatomical structures, demographics, and free-text annotations, supporting anatomical structure recognition, disease screening, disease staging, and demographic prediction for bias evaluation. This work extends our preliminary LMOD benchmark with three major enhancements: (1) nearly 50% dataset expansion with substantial enlargement of color fundus photography; (2) broadened task coverage including binary disease diagnosis, multi-class diagnosis, severity classification with international grading standards, and demographic prediction; and (3) systematic evaluation of 24 state-of-the-art MLLMs. Our evaluations reveal both promise and limitations. Top-performing models achieved ~58% accuracy in disease screening under zero-shot settings, and performance remained suboptimal for challenging tasks like disease staging. We will publicly release the dataset, curation pipeline, and leaderboard to potentially advance ophthalmic AI applications and reduce the global burden of vision-threatening diseases.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Diabetes mellitus affects over 537 million adults worldwide and remains a major challenge in preventive healthcare. Existing machine-learning studies primarily formulate diabetes prediction as a binary classification problem, while subtype-oriented analysis and glycaemic-cognitive associations remain comparatively underexplored. We present a reproducible three-stage machine learning framework for diabetes detection, subtype-oriented clustering, and metabolic-cognitive association analysis. In Stage 1, five supervised classifiers together with a stacking ensemble are benchmarked on the NCSU Diabetes Dataset using stratified five-fold cross-validation and evaluation metrics including ROC-AUC, balanced accuracy, recall, and F1-score. SVM-RBF and Logistic Regression achieve the highest ROC-AUC (0.825 pm 0.026), while Random Forest achieves the highest accuracy (0.762 pm 0.030). SHAP explainability identifies Glucose, BMI, and Age as the dominant predictive biomarkers. In Stage 2, silhouette-validated K-Means clustering (k=2, silhouette approx 0.116) is applied to confirmed diabetic cases using Glucose, Insulin, and Age, recovering clinically plausible subtype-oriented partitions without requiring ground-truth subtype labels. In Stage 3, statistical analysis of the Ohio Longitudinal Cognitive Dataset (n=373) reveals a significant positive association between glycaemic control and cognitive function (ρ_s = 0.208, p = 5.29 times 10^{-5}), which survives Holm correction. The findings support the utility of statistically grounded and interpretable ML pipelines for reproducible diabetes analytics and subtype-aware exploratory analysis.

We present Midicoth, a lossless compression system that introduces a micro-diffusion denoising layer for improving probability estimates produced by adaptive statistical models. In compressors such as Prediction by Partial Matching (PPM), probability estimates are smoothed by a prior to handle sparse observations. When contexts have been seen only a few times, this prior dominates the prediction and produces distributions that are significantly flatter than the true source distribution, leading to compression inefficiency. Midicoth addresses this limitation by treating prior smoothing as a shrinkage process and applying a reverse denoising step that corrects predicted probabilities using empirical calibration statistics. To make this correction data-efficient, the method decomposes each byte prediction into a hierarchy of binary decisions along a bitwise tree. This converts a single 256-way calibration problem into a sequence of binary calibration tasks, enabling reliable estimation of correction terms from relatively small numbers of observations. The denoising process is applied in multiple successive steps, allowing each stage to refine residual prediction errors left by the previous one. The micro-diffusion layer operates as a lightweight post-blend calibration stage applied after all model predictions have been combined, allowing it to correct systematic biases in the final probability distribution. Midicoth combines five fully online components: an adaptive PPM model, a long-range match model, a trie-based word model, a high-order context model, and the micro-diffusion denoiser applied as the final stage.

As mobile robots are increasingly deployed in human environments, enabling them to predict how people perceive them is critical for socially adaptable navigation. Predicting perceptions is challenging for two main reasons: (1) HRI prediction models must learn from limited data, and (2) the obtained models must be interpretable to enable safe and effective interactions. Interpretability is particularly important when a robot is perceived as incompetent (e.g., when the robot suddenly stops or rotates away from the goal), as it allows the robot to explain its reasoning and identify controllable factors to improve performance, requiring causal rather than associative reasoning. To address these challenges, we propose a Causal Bayesian Network designed to predict how people perceive a mobile robot's competence and how they interpret its intent during navigation. Additionally, we introduce a novel method to improve perceived robot competence employing a combinatorial search, guided by the proposed causal model, to identify better navigation behaviors. Our method enhances interpretability and generates counterfactual robot motions while achieving comparable or superior predictive performance to state-of-the-art methods, reaching an F1-score of 0.78 and 0.75 for competence and intention on a binary scale. To further assess our method's ability to improve the perceived robot competence, we conducted an online evaluation in which users rated robot behaviors on a 5-point Likert scale. Our method statistically significantly increased the perceived competence of low-competent robot behavior by 83%.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

Recently, binary representation has been proposed as a novel representation that lies between continuous and discrete representations. It exhibits considerable information-preserving capability when being used to replace continuous input vectors. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of further introducing it to the output side, aiming to allow models to output binary labels instead. To preserve the structural information on the output side along with label information, we extend the previous contrastive hashing method as structured contrastive hashing. More specifically, we upgrade CKY from label-level to bit-level, define a new similarity function with span marginal probabilities, and introduce a novel contrastive loss function with a carefully designed instance selection strategy. Our model achieves competitive performance on various structured prediction tasks, and demonstrates that binary representation can be considered a novel representation that further bridges the gap between the continuous nature of deep learning and the discrete intrinsic property of natural languages.

Binary Neural Network (BNN) represents convolution weights with 1-bit values, which enhances the efficiency of storage and computation. This paper is motivated by a previously revealed phenomenon that the binary kernels in successful BNNs are nearly power-law distributed: their values are mostly clustered into a small number of codewords. This phenomenon encourages us to compact typical BNNs and obtain further close performance through learning non-repetitive kernels within a binary kernel subspace. Specifically, we regard the binarization process as kernel grouping in terms of a binary codebook, and our task lies in learning to select a smaller subset of codewords from the full codebook. We then leverage the Gumbel-Sinkhorn technique to approximate the codeword selection process, and develop the Permutation Straight-Through Estimator (PSTE) that is able to not only optimize the selection process end-to-end but also maintain the non-repetitive occupancy of selected codewords. Experiments verify that our method reduces both the model size and bit-wise computational costs, and achieves accuracy improvements compared with state-of-the-art BNNs under comparable budgets.

Traditional deep learning often overlooks bytes, the basic units of the digital world, where all forms of information and operations are encoded and manipulated in binary format. Inspired by the success of next token prediction in natural language processing, we introduce bGPT, a model with next byte prediction to simulate the digital world. bGPT matches specialized models in performance across various modalities, including text, audio, and images, and offers new possibilities for predicting, simulating, and diagnosing algorithm or hardware behaviour. It has almost flawlessly replicated the process of converting symbolic music data, achieving a low error rate of 0.0011 bits per byte in converting ABC notation to MIDI format. In addition, bGPT demonstrates exceptional capabilities in simulating CPU behaviour, with an accuracy exceeding 99.99% in executing various operations. Leveraging next byte prediction, models like bGPT can directly learn from vast binary data, effectively simulating the intricate patterns of the digital world.

Ternary and binary neural networks enable multiplication-free computation and promise multiple orders of magnitude efficiency gains over full-precision networks if implemented on specialized hardware. However, since both the parameter and the output space are highly discretized, such networks have proven very difficult to optimize. The difficulties are compounded for the class of transformer text generation models due to the sensitivity of the attention operation to quantization and the noise-compounding effects of autoregressive decoding in the high-cardinality output space. We approach the problem with a mix of statistics-based quantization for the weights and elastic quantization of the activations and demonstrate the first ternary and binary transformer models on the downstream tasks of summarization and machine translation. Our ternary BART base achieves an R1 score of 41 on the CNN/DailyMail benchmark, which is merely 3.9 points behind the full model while being 16x more efficient. Our binary model, while less accurate, achieves a highly non-trivial score of 35.6. For machine translation, we achieved BLEU scores of 21.7 and 17.6 on the WMT16 En-Ro benchmark, compared with a full precision mBART model score of 26.8. We also compare our approach in the 8-bit activation setting, where our ternary and even binary weight models can match or outperform the best existing 8-bit weight models in the literature. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/facebookresearch/Ternary_Binary_Transformer

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have achieved state-of-the-art results in a wide range of tasks, with the best results obtained with large training sets and large models. In the past, GPUs enabled these breakthroughs because of their greater computational speed. In the future, faster computation at both training and test time is likely to be crucial for further progress and for consumer applications on low-power devices. As a result, there is much interest in research and development of dedicated hardware for Deep Learning (DL). Binary weights, i.e., weights which are constrained to only two possible values (e.g. -1 or 1), would bring great benefits to specialized DL hardware by replacing many multiply-accumulate operations by simple accumulations, as multipliers are the most space and power-hungry components of the digital implementation of neural networks. We introduce BinaryConnect, a method which consists in training a DNN with binary weights during the forward and backward propagations, while retaining precision of the stored weights in which gradients are accumulated. Like other dropout schemes, we show that BinaryConnect acts as regularizer and we obtain near state-of-the-art results with BinaryConnect on the permutation-invariant MNIST, CIFAR-10 and SVHN.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Deep learning research for binary analysis faces a critical infrastructure gap. Today, existing datasets target single platforms, require specialized tooling, or provide only hand-engineered features incompatible with modern neural architectures; no single dataset supports accessible research and pedagogy on realistic use cases. To solve this, we introduce Binary-30K, the first heterogeneous binary dataset designed for sequence-based models like transformers. Critically, Binary-30K covers Windows, Linux, macOS, and Android across 15+ CPU architectures. With 29,793 binaries and approximately 26.93% malware representation, Binary-30K enables research on platform-invariant detection, cross-target transfer learning, and long-context binary understanding. The dataset provides pre-computed byte-level BPE tokenization alongside comprehensive structural metadata, supporting both sequence modeling and structure-aware approaches. Platform-first stratified sampling ensures representative coverage across operating systems and architectures, while distribution via Hugging Face with official train/validation/test splits enables reproducible benchmarking. The dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/mjbommar/binary-30k, providing an accessible resource for researchers, practitioners, and students alike.

Binary options trading is often marketed as a field where predictive models can generate consistent profits. However, the inherent randomness and stochastic nature of binary options make price movements highly unpredictable, posing significant challenges for any forecasting approach. This study demonstrates that machine learning algorithms struggle to outperform a simple baseline in predicting binary options movements. Using a dataset of EUR/USD currency pairs from 2021 to 2023, we tested multiple models, including Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting, and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), both before and after hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, several neural network architectures, including Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP) and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, were evaluated under different training conditions. Despite these exhaustive efforts, none of the models surpassed the ZeroR baseline accuracy, highlighting the inherent randomness of binary options. These findings reinforce the notion that binary options lack predictable patterns, making them unsuitable for machine learning-based forecasting.

Quantized neural networks employ reduced precision representations for both weights and activations. This quantization process significantly reduces the memory requirements and computational complexity of the network. Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) are the extreme quantization case, representing values with just one bit. Since the sign function is typically used to map real values to binary values, smooth approximations are introduced to mimic the gradients during error backpropagation. Thus, the mismatch between the forward and backward models corrupts the direction of the gradient, causing training inconsistency problems and performance degradation. In contrast to current BNN approaches, we propose to employ a binary periodic (BiPer) function during binarization. Specifically, we use a square wave for the forward pass to obtain the binary values and employ the trigonometric sine function with the same period of the square wave as a differentiable surrogate during the backward pass. We demonstrate that this approach can control the quantization error by using the frequency of the periodic function and improves network performance. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of BiPer in benchmark datasets and network architectures, with improvements of up to 1% and 0.69% with respect to state-of-the-art methods in the classification task over CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, respectively. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/edmav4/BiPer.

We introduce a quantum neural network, QNN, that can represent labeled data, classical or quantum, and be trained by supervised learning. The quantum circuit consists of a sequence of parameter dependent unitary transformations which acts on an input quantum state. For binary classification a single Pauli operator is measured on a designated readout qubit. The measured output is the quantum neural network's predictor of the binary label of the input state. First we look at classifying classical data sets which consist of n-bit strings with binary labels. The input quantum state is an n-bit computational basis state corresponding to a sample string. We show how to design a circuit made from two qubit unitaries that can correctly represent the label of any Boolean function of n bits. For certain label functions the circuit is exponentially long. We introduce parameter dependent unitaries that can be adapted by supervised learning of labeled data. We study an example of real world data consisting of downsampled images of handwritten digits each of which has been labeled as one of two distinct digits. We show through classical simulation that parameters can be found that allow the QNN to learn to correctly distinguish the two data sets. We then discuss presenting the data as quantum superpositions of computational basis states corresponding to different label values. Here we show through simulation that learning is possible. We consider using our QNN to learn the label of a general quantum state. By example we show that this can be done. Our work is exploratory and relies on the classical simulation of small quantum systems. The QNN proposed here was designed with near-term quantum processors in mind. Therefore it will be possible to run this QNN on a near term gate model quantum computer where its power can be explored beyond what can be explored with simulation.

This is an extended version of our publication Learning state machines from data streams: A generic strategy and an improved heuristic, International Conference on Grammatical Inference (ICGI) 2023, Rabat, Morocco. It has been extended with a formal proof on PAC-bounds, and the discussion and analysis of a similar approach has been moved from the appendix and now has a full dedicated section. State machine models are models that simulate the behavior of discrete event systems, capable of representing systems such as software systems, network interactions, and control systems, and have been researched extensively. The nature of most learning algorithms however is the assumption that all data be available at the beginning of the algorithm, and little research has been done in learning state machines from streaming data. In this paper, we want to close this gap further by presenting a generic method for learning state machines from data streams, as well as a merge heuristic that uses sketches to account for incomplete prefix trees. We implement our approach in an open-source state merging library and compare it with existing methods. We show the effectiveness of our approach with respect to run-time, memory consumption, and quality of results on a well known open dataset. Additionally, we provide a formal analysis of our algorithm, showing that it is capable of learning within the PAC framework, and show a theoretical improvement to increase run-time, without sacrificing correctness of the algorithm in larger sample sizes.

We present a new approach for mitigating unfairness in learned classifiers. In particular, we focus on binary classification tasks over individuals from two populations, where, as our criterion for fairness, we wish to achieve similar false positive rates in both populations, and similar false negative rates in both populations. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach and empirically evaluate its ability to achieve both fairness and accuracy, using datasets from the fields of criminal risk assessment, credit, lending, and college admissions.

This paper proposes a new algorithm based on multi-scale stochastic local search with binary representation for training neural networks. In particular, we study the effects of neighborhood evaluation strategies, the effect of the number of bits per weight and that of the maximum weight range used for mapping binary strings to real values. Following this preliminary investigation, we propose a telescopic multi-scale version of local search where the number of bits is increased in an adaptive manner, leading to a faster search and to local minima of better quality. An analysis related to adapting the number of bits in a dynamic way is also presented. The control on the number of bits, which happens in a natural manner in the proposed method, is effective to increase the generalization performance. Benchmark tasks include a highly non-linear artificial problem, a control problem requiring either feed-forward or recurrent architectures for feedback control, and challenging real-world tasks in different application domains. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Representations are at the core of all deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods for both Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Many representation learning methods and theoretical frameworks have been developed to understand what constitutes an effective representation. However, the relationships between these methods and the shared properties among them remain unclear. In this paper, we show that many of these seemingly distinct methods and frameworks for state and history abstractions are, in fact, based on a common idea of self-predictive abstraction. Furthermore, we provide theoretical insights into the widely adopted objectives and optimization, such as the stop-gradient technique, in learning self-predictive representations. These findings together yield a minimalist algorithm to learn self-predictive representations for states and histories. We validate our theories by applying our algorithm to standard MDPs, MDPs with distractors, and POMDPs with sparse rewards. These findings culminate in a set of preliminary guidelines for RL practitioners.

The goal of two-sample tests is to assess whether two samples, S_P sim P^n and S_Q sim Q^m, are drawn from the same distribution. Perhaps intriguingly, one relatively unexplored method to build two-sample tests is the use of binary classifiers. In particular, construct a dataset by pairing the n examples in S_P with a positive label, and by pairing the m examples in S_Q with a negative label. If the null hypothesis "P = Q" is true, then the classification accuracy of a binary classifier on a held-out subset of this dataset should remain near chance-level. As we will show, such Classifier Two-Sample Tests (C2ST) learn a suitable representation of the data on the fly, return test statistics in interpretable units, have a simple null distribution, and their predictive uncertainty allow to interpret where P and Q differ. The goal of this paper is to establish the properties, performance, and uses of C2ST. First, we analyze their main theoretical properties. Second, we compare their performance against a variety of state-of-the-art alternatives. Third, we propose their use to evaluate the sample quality of generative models with intractable likelihoods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Fourth, we showcase the novel application of GANs together with C2ST for causal discovery.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running K independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Careful ablation studies, using mixed effects analysis to control for question variability (which accounts for 62\% of the variance in performance), reveals that all 3 components contribute to the overall gains, but some components matter more than others, depending on the base LLM, and the setting (e.g.\ with or without a crowd prior). All our experiments are based on a robust back-testing framework which we develop, which has a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and may be of independent interest.

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed. We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention. We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

How do sequence models represent their decision-making process? Prior work suggests that Othello-playing neural network learned nonlinear models of the board state (Li et al., 2023). In this work, we provide evidence of a closely related linear representation of the board. In particular, we show that probing for "my colour" vs. "opponent's colour" may be a simple yet powerful way to interpret the model's internal state. This precise understanding of the internal representations allows us to control the model's behaviour with simple vector arithmetic. Linear representations enable significant interpretability progress, which we demonstrate with further exploration of how the world model is computed.

Understanding neural networks is challenging in part because of the dense, continuous nature of their hidden states. We explore whether we can train neural networks to have hidden states that are sparse, discrete, and more interpretable by quantizing their continuous features into what we call codebook features. Codebook features are produced by finetuning neural networks with vector quantization bottlenecks at each layer, producing a network whose hidden features are the sum of a small number of discrete vector codes chosen from a larger codebook. Surprisingly, we find that neural networks can operate under this extreme bottleneck with only modest degradation in performance. This sparse, discrete bottleneck also provides an intuitive way of controlling neural network behavior: first, find codes that activate when the desired behavior is present, then activate those same codes during generation to elicit that behavior. We validate our approach by training codebook Transformers on several different datasets. First, we explore a finite state machine dataset with far more hidden states than neurons. In this setting, our approach overcomes the superposition problem by assigning states to distinct codes, and we find that we can make the neural network behave as if it is in a different state by activating the code for that state. Second, we train Transformer language models with up to 410M parameters on two natural language datasets. We identify codes in these models representing diverse, disentangled concepts (ranging from negative emotions to months of the year) and find that we can guide the model to generate different topics by activating the appropriate codes during inference. Overall, codebook features appear to be a promising unit of analysis and control for neural networks and interpretability. Our codebase and models are open-sourced at https://github.com/taufeeque9/codebook-features.

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

Most speech recognition tasks pertain to mapping words across two modalities: acoustic and orthographic. In this work, we suggest learning encoders that map variable-length, acoustic or phonetic, sequences that represent words into fixed-dimensional vectors in a shared latent space; such that the distance between two word vectors represents how closely the two words sound. Instead of directly learning the distances between word vectors, we employ weak supervision and model a binary classification task to predict whether two inputs, one of each modality, represent the same word given a distance threshold. We explore various deep-learning models, bimodal contrastive losses, and techniques for mining hard negative examples such as the semi-supervised technique of self-labeling. Our best model achieves an F_1 score of 0.95 for the binary classification task.

Binary code summarization, while invaluable for understanding code semantics, is challenging due to its labor-intensive nature. This study delves into the potential of large language models (LLMs) for binary code comprehension. To this end, we present BinSum, a comprehensive benchmark and dataset of over 557K binary functions and introduce a novel method for prompt synthesis and optimization. To more accurately gauge LLM performance, we also propose a new semantic similarity metric that surpasses traditional exact-match approaches. Our extensive evaluation of prominent LLMs, including ChatGPT, GPT-4, Llama 2, and Code Llama, reveals 10 pivotal insights. This evaluation generates 4 billion inference tokens, incurred a total expense of 11,418 US dollars and 873 NVIDIA A100 GPU hours. Our findings highlight both the transformative potential of LLMs in this field and the challenges yet to be overcome.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

In this work, we introduce Boolformer, the first Transformer architecture trained to perform end-to-end symbolic regression of Boolean functions. First, we show that it can predict compact formulas for complex functions which were not seen during training, when provided a clean truth table. Then, we demonstrate its ability to find approximate expressions when provided incomplete and noisy observations. We evaluate the Boolformer on a broad set of real-world binary classification datasets, demonstrating its potential as an interpretable alternative to classic machine learning methods. Finally, we apply it to the widespread task of modelling the dynamics of gene regulatory networks. Using a recent benchmark, we show that Boolformer is competitive with state-of-the art genetic algorithms with a speedup of several orders of magnitude. Our code and models are available publicly.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

This work presents a Fully BInarized Large Language Model (FBI-LLM), demonstrating for the first time how to train a large-scale binary language model from scratch (not the partial binary or ternary LLM like BitNet b1.58) to match the performance of its full-precision counterparts (e.g., FP16 or BF16) in transformer-based LLMs. It achieves this by employing an autoregressive distillation (AD) loss with maintaining equivalent model dimensions (130M, 1.3B, 7B) and training data volume as regular LLM pretraining, while delivering competitive results in terms of perplexity and task-specific effectiveness. Intriguingly, by analyzing the training trajectory, we find that the pretrained weight is not necessary for training binarized LLMs from scratch. This research encourages a new computational framework and may facilitate the future design of specialized hardware tailored for fully 1-bit LLMs. We make all models, code, and training dataset fully accessible and transparent to support further research (Code: https://github.com/LiqunMa/FBI-LLM. Model: https://huggingface.co/LiqunMa/).

Binary code analysis plays a pivotal role in various software security applications, such as software maintenance, malware detection, software vulnerability discovery, patch analysis, etc. However, unlike source code, understanding binary code is challenging for reverse engineers due to the absence of semantic information. Therefore, automated tools are needed to assist human players in interpreting binary code. In recent years, two groups of technologies have shown promising prospects: (1) Deep learning-based technologies have demonstrated competitive results in tasks related to binary code understanding, furthermore, (2) Large Language Models (LLMs) have been extensively pre-trained at the source-code level for tasks such as code understanding and generation. This makes participants wonder about the ability of LLMs in binary code understanding. In this work, we propose a benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of LLMs in real-world reverse engineering scenarios. The benchmark covers two key binary code understanding tasks, including function name recovery and binary code summarization. We gain valuable insights into their capabilities and limitations through extensive evaluations of popular LLMs using our benchmark. Our evaluations reveal that existing LLMs can understand binary code to a certain extent, thereby improving the efficiency of binary code analysis. Our results highlight the great potential of the LLMs in advancing the field of binary code understanding.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

State representation learning, or the ability to capture latent generative factors of an environment, is crucial for building intelligent agents that can perform a wide variety of tasks. Learning such representations without supervision from rewards is a challenging open problem. We introduce a method that learns state representations by maximizing mutual information across spatially and temporally distinct features of a neural encoder of the observations. We also introduce a new benchmark based on Atari 2600 games where we evaluate representations based on how well they capture the ground truth state variables. We believe this new framework for evaluating representation learning models will be crucial for future representation learning research. Finally, we compare our technique with other state-of-the-art generative and contrastive representation learning methods. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/atari-representation-learning

We propose a simple technique for encouraging generative RNNs to plan ahead. We train a "backward" recurrent network to generate a given sequence in reverse order, and we encourage states of the forward model to predict cotemporal states of the backward model. The backward network is used only during training, and plays no role during sampling or inference. We hypothesize that our approach eases modeling of long-term dependencies by implicitly forcing the forward states to hold information about the longer-term future (as contained in the backward states). We show empirically that our approach achieves 9% relative improvement for a speech recognition task, and achieves significant improvement on a COCO caption generation task.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

The brain understands the external world through an internal model that generates predictions and refines them based on prediction errors. A complete prediction specifies what will happen, when it will happen, and with what probability, which we refer to as a "prediction object". Existing models typically capture only what and when, omit probabilities, and rely on biologically-implausible algorithms. Here we show that a single population of spiking neurons can jointly encode the prediction object through a biologically grounded learning mechanism. We implement a heterogeneous Izhikevich spiking reservoir with readouts trained by an error-modulated, attention-gated three-factor Hebbian rule and test it on a novel paradigm that controls both the timing and probability of upcoming stimuli. By integrating real-time learning of "when" with offline consolidation of "what", the model encodes the complete prediction object, firing at the correct times with magnitudes proportional to the probabilities. Critically, it rapidly adapts to changes in both stimulus timing and probability, an ability that global least-squares methods such as FORCE lack without explicit resets. During learning, the model self-organizes its readout weights into near-orthogonal subspaces for "what" and "when," showing that multiplexed encoding arises naturally from generic recurrent dynamics under local, error-gated modulation. These results challenge the view that "what" and "when" predictions require separate modules, suggesting instead that mixed selectivity within shared populations supports flexible predictive cognition. The model also predicts phase-specific neuromodulation and overlapping neural subspaces, offering a parsimonious alternative to hierarchical predictive-coding accounts.

Binary code is pervasive, and binary analysis is a key task in reverse engineering, malware classification, and vulnerability discovery. Unfortunately, while there exist large corpuses of malicious binaries, obtaining high-quality corpuses of benign binaries for modern systems has proven challenging (e.g., due to licensing issues). Consequently, machine learning based pipelines for binary analysis utilize either costly commercial corpuses (e.g., VirusTotal) or open-source binaries (e.g., coreutils) available in limited quantities. To address these issues, we present Assemblage: an extensible cloud-based distributed system that crawls, configures, and builds Windows PE binaries to obtain high-quality binary corpuses suitable for training state-of-the-art models in binary analysis. We have run Assemblage on AWS over the past year, producing 890k Windows PE and 428k Linux ELF binaries across 29 configurations. Assemblage is designed to be both reproducible and extensible, enabling users to publish "recipes" for their datasets, and facilitating the extraction of a wide array of features. We evaluated Assemblage by using its data to train modern learning-based pipelines for compiler provenance and binary function similarity. Our results illustrate the practical need for robust corpuses of high-quality Windows PE binaries in training modern learning-based binary analyses. Assemblage can be downloaded from https://assemblage-dataset.net

Contemporary machine learning models, such as language models, are powerful, but come with immense resource requirements both at training and inference time. It has been shown that decoder-only language models can be trained to a competitive state with ternary weights (1.58 bits per weight), facilitating efficient inference. Here, we start our exploration with non-transformer model architectures, investigating 1.58-bit training for multi-layer perceptrons and graph neural networks. Then, we explore 1.58-bit training in other transformer-based language models, namely encoder-only and encoder-decoder models. Our results show that in all of these settings, 1.58-bit training is on par with or sometimes even better than the standard 32/16-bit models.

We present BitDance, a scalable autoregressive (AR) image generator that predicts binary visual tokens instead of codebook indices. With high-entropy binary latents, BitDance lets each token represent up to 2^{256} states, yielding a compact yet highly expressive discrete representation. Sampling from such a huge token space is difficult with standard classification. To resolve this, BitDance uses a binary diffusion head: instead of predicting an index with softmax, it employs continuous-space diffusion to generate the binary tokens. Furthermore, we propose next-patch diffusion, a new decoding method that predicts multiple tokens in parallel with high accuracy, greatly speeding up inference. On ImageNet 256x256, BitDance achieves an FID of 1.24, the best among AR models. With next-patch diffusion, BitDance beats state-of-the-art parallel AR models that use 1.4B parameters, while using 5.4x fewer parameters (260M) and achieving 8.7x speedup. For text-to-image generation, BitDance trains on large-scale multimodal tokens and generates high-resolution, photorealistic images efficiently, showing strong performance and favorable scaling. When generating 1024x1024 images, BitDance achieves a speedup of over 30x compared to prior AR models. We release code and models to facilitate further research on AR foundation models. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/shallowdream204/BitDance.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et al. (2017)). This gives rise to a novel sequence prediction architecture we call a spectral state space model. Spectral state space models have two primary advantages. First, they have provable robustness properties as their performance depends on neither the spectrum of the underlying dynamics nor the dimensionality of the problem. Second, these models are constructed with fixed convolutional filters that do not require learning while still outperforming SSMs in both theory and practice. The resulting models are evaluated on synthetic dynamical systems and long-range prediction tasks of various modalities. These evaluations support the theoretical benefits of spectral filtering for tasks requiring very long range memory.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Large language model post-training methods such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT), reinforcement learning (RL), and distillation are often analyzed through their loss functions: maximum likelihood, policy gradients, forward KL, reverse KL, or related objective-level variants. We study a complementary factor: the state distribution on which supervision is applied. For an autoregressive policy, a state is a prompt plus generated prefix. SFT trains on fixed dataset states, while RL and on-policy distillation (OPD) train on states induced by the current learner. We formalize post-training as state-distribution shaping and run a controlled smallscale study using Qwen3-0.6B-Base on GSM8K, with TruthfulQA and MMLU as retention evaluations. Our results show three phenomena. First, a mild SFT run improves GSM8K with little forgetting, while a stress SFT run causes substantial retention loss. Second, OPD from a degraded SFT teacher surpasses that teacher on GSM8K, TruthfulQA, and MMLU, despite using the teacher as its only supervision source. Third, a lightweight on-policy RL run improves GSM8K while preserving retention. These results support a state-centric view of post-training: the source and locality of training states can be as important as the form of the supervision signal.

Generating synthetic tabular data is critical in machine learning, especially when real data is limited or sensitive. Traditional generative models often face challenges due to the unique characteristics of tabular data, such as mixed data types and varied distributions, and require complex preprocessing or large pretrained models. In this paper, we introduce a novel, lossless binary transformation method that converts any tabular data into fixed-size binary representations, and a corresponding new generative model called Binary Diffusion, specifically designed for binary data. Binary Diffusion leverages the simplicity of XOR operations for noise addition and removal and employs binary cross-entropy loss for training. Our approach eliminates the need for extensive preprocessing, complex noise parameter tuning, and pretraining on large datasets. We evaluate our model on several popular tabular benchmark datasets, demonstrating that Binary Diffusion outperforms existing state-of-the-art models on Travel, Adult Income, and Diabetes datasets while being significantly smaller in size.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Speculative decoding is a technique to leverage hardware concurrency to improve the efficiency of large-scale autoregressive (AR) Transformer models by enabling multiple steps of token generation in a single forward pass. State-space models (SSMs) are already more efficient than AR Transformers, since their state summarizes all past data with no need to cache or re-process tokens in the sliding window context. However, their state can also comprise thousands of tokens; so, speculative decoding has recently been extended to SSMs. Existing approaches, however, do not leverage the tree-based verification methods, since current SSMs lack the means to compute a token tree efficiently. We propose the first scalable algorithm to perform tree-based speculative decoding in state-space models (SSMs) and hybrid architectures of SSMs and Transformer layers. We exploit the structure of accumulated state transition matrices to facilitate tree-based speculative decoding with minimal overhead to current SSM state update implementations. With the algorithm, we describe a hardware-aware implementation that improves naive application of AR Transformer tree-based speculative decoding methods to SSMs. Furthermore, we outperform vanilla speculative decoding with SSMs even with a baseline drafting model and tree structure on three different benchmarks, opening up opportunities for further speed up with SSM and hybrid model inference. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) have emerged as a promising solution for reducing the memory footprint and compute costs of deep neural networks. BNNs, on the other hand, suffer from information loss because binary activations are limited to only two values, resulting in reduced accuracy. To improve the accuracy, previous studies have attempted to control the distribution of binary activation by manually shifting the threshold of the activation function or making the shift amount trainable. During the process, they usually depended on statistical information computed from a batch. We argue that using statistical data from a batch fails to capture the crucial information for each input instance in BNN computations, and the differences between statistical information computed from each instance need to be considered when determining the binary activation threshold of each instance. Based on the concept, we propose the Binary Neural Network with INSTAnce-aware threshold (INSTA-BNN), which decides the activation threshold value considering the difference between statistical data computed from a batch and each instance. The proposed INSTA-BNN outperforms the baseline by 2.5% and 2.3% on the ImageNet classification task with comparable computing cost, achieving 68.0% and 71.7% top-1 accuracy on ResNet-18 and MobileNetV1 based models, respectively.

Binarization, which converts weight parameters to binary values, has emerged as an effective strategy to reduce the size of large language models (LLMs). However, typical binarization techniques significantly diminish linguistic effectiveness of LLMs. To address this issue, we introduce a novel binarization technique called Mixture of Scales (BinaryMoS). Unlike conventional methods, BinaryMoS employs multiple scaling experts for binary weights, dynamically merging these experts for each token to adaptively generate scaling factors. This token-adaptive approach boosts the representational power of binarized LLMs by enabling contextual adjustments to the values of binary weights. Moreover, because this adaptive process only involves the scaling factors rather than the entire weight matrix, BinaryMoS maintains compression efficiency similar to traditional static binarization methods. Our experimental results reveal that BinaryMoS surpasses conventional binarization techniques in various natural language processing tasks and even outperforms 2-bit quantization methods, all while maintaining similar model size to static binarization techniques.

Generative sequence models are typically trained on sample sequences from natural or formal languages. It is a crucial question whether -- or to what extent -- sample-based training is able to capture the true structure of these languages, often referred to as the ``world model''. Theoretical results indicate that we can hope for soundness at best, that is, generating valid sequences, but not necessarily all of them. However, it is still important to have practical tools that are able to verify whether a given sequence model is sound. In this study, we focus on chess, as it is a domain that provides enough complexity while having a simple rule-based world model. We propose adversarial sequence generation for verifying the soundness of the sequence model. Our adversaries generate valid sequences so as to force the sequence model to generate an invalid next move prediction. Apart from the falsification of soundness, this method is also suitable for a more fine-grained analysis of the failure modes and the effects of different choices during training. To demonstrate this, we propose a number of methods for adversarial sequence generation and evaluate the approach on a large set of chess models. We train models on random as well as high-quality chess games, using several training recipes. We find that none of the models are sound, but some training techniques and dataset choices are able to improve soundness remarkably. We also investigate the potential application of board state probes in both our training and attack methods. Our findings indicate that the extracted board states have no causal role in next token prediction in most of the models.

Retrieval augmentation addresses many critical problems in large language models such as hallucination, staleness, and privacy leaks. However, running retrieval-augmented language models (LMs) is slow and difficult to scale due to processing large amounts of retrieved text. We introduce binary token representations (BTR), which use 1-bit vectors to precompute every token in passages, significantly reducing computation during inference. Despite the potential loss of accuracy, our new calibration techniques and training objectives restore performance. Combined with offline and runtime compression, this only requires 127GB of disk space for encoding 3 billion tokens in Wikipedia. Our experiments show that on five knowledge-intensive NLP tasks, BTR accelerates state-of-the-art inference by up to 4x and reduces storage by over 100x while maintaining over 95% task performance.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

This paper introduces Adaptive Computation Time (ACT), an algorithm that allows recurrent neural networks to learn how many computational steps to take between receiving an input and emitting an output. ACT requires minimal changes to the network architecture, is deterministic and differentiable, and does not add any noise to the parameter gradients. Experimental results are provided for four synthetic problems: determining the parity of binary vectors, applying binary logic operations, adding integers, and sorting real numbers. Overall, performance is dramatically improved by the use of ACT, which successfully adapts the number of computational steps to the requirements of the problem. We also present character-level language modelling results on the Hutter prize Wikipedia dataset. In this case ACT does not yield large gains in performance; however it does provide intriguing insight into the structure of the data, with more computation allocated to harder-to-predict transitions, such as spaces between words and ends of sentences. This suggests that ACT or other adaptive computation methods could provide a generic method for inferring segment boundaries in sequence data.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.

Structured State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as alternatives to transformers. While SSMs are often regarded as effective in capturing long-sequence dependencies, we rigorously demonstrate that they are inherently limited by strong recency bias. Our empirical studies also reveal that this bias impairs the models' ability to recall distant information and introduces robustness issues. Our scaling experiments then discovered that deeper structures in SSMs can facilitate the learning of long contexts. However, subsequent theoretical analysis reveals that as SSMs increase in depth, they exhibit another inevitable tendency toward over-smoothing, e.g., token representations becoming increasingly indistinguishable. This fundamental dilemma between recency and over-smoothing hinders the scalability of existing SSMs. Inspired by our theoretical findings, we propose to polarize two channels of the state transition matrices in SSMs, setting them to zero and one, respectively, simultaneously addressing recency bias and over-smoothing. Experiments demonstrate that our polarization technique consistently enhances the associative recall accuracy of long-range tokens and unlocks SSMs to benefit further from deeper architectures. All source codes are released at https://github.com/VITA-Group/SSM-Bottleneck.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

Optimization of Top-1 ImageNet promotes enormous networks that may be impractical in inference settings. Binary neural networks (BNNs) have the potential to significantly lower the compute intensity but existing models suffer from low quality. To overcome this deficiency, we propose PokeConv, a binary convolution block which improves quality of BNNs by techniques such as adding multiple residual paths, and tuning the activation function. We apply it to ResNet-50 and optimize ResNet's initial convolutional layer which is hard to binarize. We name the resulting network family PokeBNN. These techniques are chosen to yield favorable improvements in both top-1 accuracy and the network's cost. In order to enable joint optimization of the cost together with accuracy, we define arithmetic computation effort (ACE), a hardware- and energy-inspired cost metric for quantized and binarized networks. We also identify a need to optimize an under-explored hyper-parameter controlling the binarization gradient approximation. We establish a new, strong state-of-the-art (SOTA) on top-1 accuracy together with commonly-used CPU64 cost, ACE cost and network size metrics. ReActNet-Adam, the previous SOTA in BNNs, achieved a 70.5% top-1 accuracy with 7.9 ACE. A small variant of PokeBNN achieves 70.5% top-1 with 2.6 ACE, more than 3x reduction in cost; a larger PokeBNN achieves 75.6% top-1 with 7.8 ACE, more than 5% improvement in accuracy without increasing the cost. PokeBNN implementation in JAX/Flax and reproduction instructions are available in AQT repository: https://github.com/google/aqt

Optimizer states are a major source of memory consumption for training neural networks, limiting the maximum trainable model within given memory budget. Compressing the optimizer states from 32-bit floating points to lower bitwidth is promising to reduce the training memory footprint, while the current lowest achievable bitwidth is 8-bit. In this work, we push optimizer states bitwidth down to 4-bit through a detailed empirical analysis of first and second moments. Specifically, we find that moments have complicated outlier patterns, that current block-wise quantization cannot accurately approximate. We use a smaller block size and propose to utilize both row-wise and column-wise information for better quantization. We further identify a zero point problem of quantizing the second moment, and solve this problem with a linear quantizer that excludes the zero point. Our 4-bit optimizers are evaluated on a wide variety of benchmarks including natural language understanding, machine translation, image classification, and instruction tuning. On all the tasks our optimizers can achieve comparable accuracy with their full-precision counterparts, while enjoying better memory efficiency.

State Space Models (SSMs) have recently emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformer-Based Models (TBMs) for long-sequence processing, offering linear scaling and lower memory use. Yet, how contextual information flows across layers and tokens in these architectures remains understudied. We present the first unified, token- and layer-level analysis of representation propagation in SSMs and TBMs. Using centered kernel alignment, stability metrics, and probing, we characterize how representations evolve within and across layers. We find a key divergence: TBMs rapidly homogenize token representations, with diversity reemerging only in later layers, while SSMs preserve token uniqueness early but converge to homogenization deeper. Theoretical analysis and parameter randomization further reveal that oversmoothing in TBMs stems from architectural design, whereas in SSMs it arises mainly from training dynamics. These insights clarify the inductive biases of both architectures and inform future model and training designs for long-context reasoning.

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

If machine learning models were to achieve superhuman abilities at various reasoning or decision-making tasks, how would we go about evaluating such models, given that humans would necessarily be poor proxies for ground truth? In this paper, we propose a framework for evaluating superhuman models via consistency checks. Our premise is that while the correctness of superhuman decisions may be impossible to evaluate, we can still surface mistakes if the model's decisions fail to satisfy certain logical, human-interpretable rules. We instantiate our framework on three tasks where correctness of decisions is hard to evaluate due to either superhuman model abilities, or to otherwise missing ground truth: evaluating chess positions, forecasting future events, and making legal judgments. We show that regardless of a model's (possibly superhuman) performance on these tasks, we can discover logical inconsistencies in decision making. For example: a chess engine assigning opposing valuations to semantically identical boards; GPT-4 forecasting that sports records will evolve non-monotonically over time; or an AI judge assigning bail to a defendant only after we add a felony to their criminal record.

Machine learning approaches to spatiotemporal physical systems have primarily focused on next-frame prediction, with the goal of learning an accurate emulator for the system's evolution in time. However, these emulators are computationally expensive to train and are subject to performance pitfalls, such as compounding errors during autoregressive rollout. In this work, we take a different perspective and look at scientific tasks further downstream of predicting the next frame, such as estimation of a system's governing physical parameters. Accuracy on these tasks offers a uniquely quantifiable glimpse into the physical relevance of the representations of these models. We evaluate the effectiveness of general-purpose self-supervised methods in learning physics-grounded representations that are useful for downstream scientific tasks. Surprisingly, we find that not all methods designed for physical modeling outperform generic self-supervised learning methods on these tasks, and methods that learn in the latent space (e.g., joint embedding predictive architectures, or JEPAs) outperform those optimizing pixel-level prediction objectives. Code is available at https://github.com/helenqu/physical-representation-learning.

Binary neural networks utilize 1-bit quantized weights and activations to reduce both the model's storage demands and computational burden. However, advanced binary architectures still incorporate millions of inefficient and nonhardware-friendly full-precision multiplication operations. A&B BNN is proposed to directly remove part of the multiplication operations in a traditional BNN and replace the rest with an equal number of bit operations, introducing the mask layer and the quantized RPReLU structure based on the normalizer-free network architecture. The mask layer can be removed during inference by leveraging the intrinsic characteristics of BNN with straightforward mathematical transformations to avoid the associated multiplication operations. The quantized RPReLU structure enables more efficient bit operations by constraining its slope to be integer powers of 2. Experimental results achieved 92.30%, 69.35%, and 66.89% on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet datasets, respectively, which are competitive with the state-of-the-art. Ablation studies have verified the efficacy of the quantized RPReLU structure, leading to a 1.14% enhancement on the ImageNet compared to using a fixed slope RLeakyReLU. The proposed add&bit-operation-only BNN offers an innovative approach for hardware-friendly network architecture.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

We present the first dataset for tracking state changes in procedural text from arbitrary domains by using an unrestricted (open) vocabulary. For example, in a text describing fog removal using potatoes, a car window may transition between being foggy, sticky,opaque, and clear. Previous formulations of this task provide the text and entities involved,and ask how those entities change for just a small, pre-defined set of attributes (e.g., location), limiting their fidelity. Our solution is a new task formulation where given just a procedural text as input, the task is to generate a set of state change tuples(entity, at-tribute, before-state, after-state)for each step,where the entity, attribute, and state values must be predicted from an open vocabulary. Using crowdsourcing, we create OPENPI1, a high-quality (91.5% coverage as judged by humans and completely vetted), and large-scale dataset comprising 29,928 state changes over 4,050 sentences from 810 procedural real-world paragraphs from WikiHow.com. A current state-of-the-art generation model on this task achieves 16.1% F1 based on BLEU metric, leaving enough room for novel model architectures.

Learning socially-aware motion representations is at the core of recent advances in multi-agent problems, such as human motion forecasting and robot navigation in crowds. Despite promising progress, existing representations learned with neural networks still struggle to generalize in closed-loop predictions (e.g., output colliding trajectories). This issue largely arises from the non-i.i.d. nature of sequential prediction in conjunction with ill-distributed training data. Intuitively, if the training data only comes from human behaviors in safe spaces, i.e., from "positive" examples, it is difficult for learning algorithms to capture the notion of "negative" examples like collisions. In this work, we aim to address this issue by explicitly modeling negative examples through self-supervision: (i) we introduce a social contrastive loss that regularizes the extracted motion representation by discerning the ground-truth positive events from synthetic negative ones; (ii) we construct informative negative samples based on our prior knowledge of rare but dangerous circumstances. Our method substantially reduces the collision rates of recent trajectory forecasting, behavioral cloning and reinforcement learning algorithms, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/social-nce.

In this research, I explore advanced deep learning methodologies to forecast the outcomes of the 2025 NCAA Division 1 Men's and Women's Basketball tournaments. Leveraging historical NCAA game data, I implement two sophisticated sequence-based models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures. The predictive power of these models is augmented through comprehensive feature engineering, including team quality metrics derived from Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Elo ratings, seed differences, and aggregated box-score statistics. To evaluate the robustness and reliability of predictions, I train each model variant using both Binary Cross-Entropy (BCE) and Brier loss functions, providing insights into classification performance and probability calibration. My comparative analysis reveals that while the Transformer architecture optimized with BCE yields superior discriminative power (highest AUC of 0.8473), the LSTM model trained with Brier loss demonstrates superior probabilistic calibration (lowest Brier score of 0.1589). These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate model architectures and loss functions based on the specific requirements of forecasting tasks. The detailed analytical pipeline presented here serves as a reproducible framework for future predictive modeling tasks in sports analytics and beyond.

We develop a method for training neural networks on Boolean data in which the values at all nodes are strictly pm 1, and the resulting models are typically equivalent to networks whose nonzero weights are also pm 1. The method replaces loss minimization with a nonconvex constraint formulation. Each node implements a Boolean threshold function (BTF), and training is expressed through a divide-and-concur decomposition into two complementary constraints: one enforces local BTF consistency between inputs, weights, and output; the other imposes architectural concurrence, equating neuron outputs with downstream inputs and enforcing weight equality across training-data instantiations of the network. The reflect-reflect-relax (RRR) projection algorithm is used to reconcile these constraints. Each BTF constraint includes a lower bound on the margin. When this bound is sufficiently large, the learned representations are provably sparse and equivalent to networks composed of simple logical gates with pm 1 weights. Across a range of tasks -- including multiplier-circuit discovery, binary autoencoding, logic-network inference, and cellular automata learning -- the method achieves exact solutions or strong generalization in regimes where standard gradient-based methods struggle. These results demonstrate that projection-based constraint satisfaction provides a viable and conceptually distinct foundation for learning in discrete neural systems, with implications for interpretability and efficient inference.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in many applications, including challenging reasoning problems via chain-of-thoughts (CoTs) techniques that generate ``thinking tokens'' before answering the questions. While existing theoretical works demonstrate that CoTs with discrete tokens boost the capability of LLMs, recent work on continuous CoTs lacks a theoretical understanding of why it outperforms discrete counterparts in various reasoning tasks such as directed graph reachability, a fundamental graph reasoning problem that includes many practical domain applications as special cases. In this paper, we prove that a two-layer transformer with D steps of continuous CoTs can solve the directed graph reachability problem, where D is the diameter of the graph, while the best known result of constant-depth transformers with discrete CoTs requires O(n^2) decoding steps where n is the number of vertices (D<n). In our construction, each continuous thought vector is a superposition state that encodes multiple search frontiers simultaneously (i.e., parallel breadth-first search (BFS)), while discrete CoTs must choose a single path sampled from the superposition state, which leads to sequential search that requires many more steps and may be trapped into local solutions. We also performed extensive experiments to verify that our theoretical construction aligns well with the empirical solution obtained via training dynamics. Notably, encoding of multiple search frontiers as a superposition state automatically emerges in training continuous CoTs, without explicit supervision to guide the model to explore multiple paths simultaneously.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.

Recent work has shown that state space models such as Mamba are significantly worse than Transformers on recall-based tasks due to the fact that their state size is constant with respect to their input sequence length. But in practice, state space models have fairly large state sizes, and we conjecture that they should be able to perform much better at these tasks than previously reported. We investigate whether their poor copying and recall performance could be due in part to training difficulties rather than fundamental capacity constraints. Based on observations of their "attention" maps, we propose a structured initialization technique that allows state space layers to more readily mimic attention. Across a variety of architecture settings, our initialization makes it substantially easier for Mamba to learn to copy and do associative recall from scratch.

Transformers use the same forward computation stream to both predict the next token and store useful state for future token predictions. We formulate the state-prediction separation hypothesis: disentangling the two roles yields better language modeling performance. We design a Transformer variant that uses two computation streams to separate the two functions, and conduct pretraining experiments across various scales. Our experiments show that state-prediction separation consistently offers better data and compute efficiencies, improving validation loss and outperforming standard Transformers by 2--3 percentage points on average on downstream tasks. We also conduct extensive empirical analysis that rules out potential confounders and demonstrates the fundamental difference in the gradients our design entails.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Understanding properties of deep neural networks is an important challenge in deep learning. In this paper, we take a step in this direction by proposing a rigorous way of verifying properties of a popular class of neural networks, Binarized Neural Networks, using the well-developed means of Boolean satisfiability. Our main contribution is a construction that creates a representation of a binarized neural network as a Boolean formula. Our encoding is the first exact Boolean representation of a deep neural network. Using this encoding, we leverage the power of modern SAT solvers along with a proposed counterexample-guided search procedure to verify various properties of these networks. A particular focus will be on the critical property of robustness to adversarial perturbations. For this property, our experimental results demonstrate that our approach scales to medium-size deep neural networks used in image classification tasks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on verifying properties of deep neural networks using an exact Boolean encoding of the network.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

Recent advances in 1-bit Large Language Models (LLMs), such as BitNet and BitNet b1.58, present a promising approach to enhancing the efficiency of LLMs in terms of speed and energy consumption. These developments also enable local LLM deployment across a broad range of devices. In this work, we introduce bitnet.cpp, a tailored software stack designed to unlock the full potential of 1-bit LLMs. Specifically, we develop a set of kernels to support fast and lossless inference of ternary BitNet b1.58 LLMs on CPUs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that bitnet.cpp achieves significant speedups, ranging from 2.37x to 6.17x on x86 CPUs and from 1.37x to 5.07x on ARM CPUs, across various model sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/BitNet.

Pretraining data of large language models composes multiple domains (e.g., web texts, academic papers, codes), whose mixture proportions crucially impact the competence of outcome models. While existing endeavors rely on heuristics or qualitative strategies to tune the proportions, we discover the quantitative predictability of model performance regarding the mixture proportions in function forms, which we refer to as the data mixing laws. Fitting such functions on sample mixtures unveils model performance on unseen mixtures before actual runs, thus guiding the selection of an ideal data mixture. Furthermore, we propose nested use of the scaling laws of training steps, model sizes, and our data mixing law to enable predicting the performance of large models trained on massive data under various mixtures with only small-scale training. Moreover, experimental results verify that our method effectively optimizes the training mixture of a 1B model trained for 100B tokens in RedPajama, reaching a performance comparable to the one trained for 48% more steps on the default mixture. Extending the application of data mixing laws to continual training accurately predicts the critical mixture proportion that avoids catastrophic forgetting and outlooks the potential for dynamic data schedules

Paging is a prototypical problem in the area of online algorithms. It has also played a central role in the development of learning-augmented algorithms -- a recent line of research that aims to ameliorate the shortcomings of classical worst-case analysis by giving algorithms access to predictions. Such predictions can typically be generated using a machine learning approach, but they are inherently imperfect. Previous work on learning-augmented paging has investigated predictions on (i) when the current page will be requested again (reoccurrence predictions), (ii) the current state of the cache in an optimal algorithm (state predictions), (iii) all requests until the current page gets requested again, and (iv) the relative order in which pages are requested. We study learning-augmented paging from the new perspective of requiring the least possible amount of predicted information. More specifically, the predictions obtained alongside each page request are limited to one bit only. We consider two natural such setups: (i) discard predictions, in which the predicted bit denotes whether or not it is ``safe'' to evict this page, and (ii) phase predictions, where the bit denotes whether the current page will be requested in the next phase (for an appropriate partitioning of the input into phases). We develop algorithms for each of the two setups that satisfy all three desirable properties of learning-augmented algorithms -- that is, they are consistent, robust and smooth -- despite being limited to a one-bit prediction per request. We also present lower bounds establishing that our algorithms are essentially best possible.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Real world deployments of word alignment are almost certain to cover both high and low resource languages. However, the state-of-the-art for this task recommends a different model class depending on the availability of gold alignment training data for a particular language pair. We propose BinaryAlign, a novel word alignment technique based on binary sequence labeling that outperforms existing approaches in both scenarios, offering a unifying approach to the task. Additionally, we vary the specific choice of multilingual foundation model, perform stratified error analysis over alignment error type, and explore the performance of BinaryAlign on non-English language pairs. We make our source code publicly available.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

The optimal bit-width for achieving the best trade-off between quantized model size and accuracy has been a subject of ongoing debate. While some advocate for 4-bit quantization, others propose that 1.58-bit offers superior results. However, the lack of a cohesive framework for different bits has left such conclusions relatively tenuous. We present ParetoQ, the first unified framework that facilitates rigorous comparisons across 1-bit, 1.58-bit, 2-bit, 3-bit, and 4-bit quantization settings. Our findings reveal a notable learning transition between 2 and 3 bits: For 3-bits and above, the fine-tuned models stay close to their original pre-trained distributions, whereas for learning 2-bit networks or below, the representations change drastically. By optimizing training schemes and refining quantization functions, ParetoQ surpasses all previous methods tailored to specific bit widths. Remarkably, our ParetoQ ternary 600M-parameter model even outperforms the previous SoTA ternary 3B-parameter model in accuracy, using only one-fifth of the parameters. Extensive experimentation shows that ternary, 2-bit, and 3-bit quantization maintains comparable performance in the size-accuracy trade-off and generally exceeds 4-bit and binary quantization. Considering hardware constraints, 2-bit quantization offers promising potential for memory reduction and speedup.

The most fundamental capability of modern AI methods such as Large Language Models (LLMs) is the ability to predict the next token in a long sequence of tokens, known as ``sequence modeling." Although the Transformers model is the current dominant approach to sequence modeling, its quadratic computational cost with respect to sequence length is a significant drawback. State-space models (SSMs) offer a promising alternative due to their linear decoding efficiency and high parallelizability during training. However, existing SSMs often rely on seemingly ad hoc linear recurrence designs. In this work, we explore SSM design through the lens of online learning, conceptualizing SSMs as meta-modules for specific online learning problems. This approach links SSM design to formulating precise online learning objectives, with state transition rules derived from optimizing these objectives. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel deep SSM architecture based on the implicit update for optimizing an online regression objective. Our experimental results show that our models outperform state-of-the-art SSMs, including the Mamba model, on standard sequence modeling benchmarks and language modeling tasks.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

The state of health (SOH) of a Li-ion battery is a critical parameter that determines the remaining capacity and the remaining lifetime of the battery. In this paper, we propose SambaMixer a novel structured state space model (SSM) for predicting the state of health of Li-ion batteries. The proposed SSM is based on the MambaMixer architecture, which is designed to handle multi-variate time signals. We evaluate our model on the NASA battery discharge dataset and show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art on this dataset. We further introduce a novel anchor-based resampling method which ensures time signals are of the expected length while also serving as augmentation technique. Finally, we condition prediction on the sample time and the cycle time difference using positional encodings to improve the performance of our model and to learn recuperation effects. Our results proof that our model is able to predict the SOH of Li-ion batteries with high accuracy and robustness.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

State-space models (SSMs) are a new class of foundation models that have emerged as a compelling alternative to Transformers and their attention mechanisms for sequence processing tasks. This paper provides a detailed theoretical analysis of selective SSMs, the core components of the Mamba and Mamba-2 architectures. We leverage the connection between selective SSMs and the self-attention mechanism to highlight the fundamental similarities between these models. Building on this connection, we establish a length independent covering number-based generalization bound for selective SSMs, providing a deeper understanding of their theoretical performance guarantees. We analyze the effects of state matrix stability and input-dependent discretization, shedding light on the critical role played by these factors in the generalization capabilities of selective SSMs. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the sequence length independence of the derived bounds on two tasks.

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that addresses these challenges through two key innovations: a state space model (SSM) based encoder and a functional basis decoder. This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons. In contrast to other state-of-the-art TSFMs, which require training data across all possible sampling rates to memorize patterns at each scale, FlowState inherently adapts its internal dynamics to the input scale, enabling smaller models, reduced data requirements, and improved efficiency. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being the smallest model, FlowState outperforms all other models and is state-of-the-art for the GIFT-ZS and the Chronos-ZS benchmarks. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt online to varying input sampling rates.

In the last ten years, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have formed the basis of deep-learning architectures for most computer vision tasks. However, they are not necessarily optimal. For example, mathematical morphology is known to be better suited to deal with binary images. In this work, we create a morphological neural network that handles binary inputs and outputs. We propose their construction inspired by CNNs to formulate layers adapted to such images by replacing convolutions with erosions and dilations. We give explainable theoretical results on whether or not the resulting learned networks are indeed morphological operators. We present promising experimental results designed to learn basic binary operators, and we have made our code publicly available online.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

In this work, we introduce a novel approach for predicting thermodynamic properties of binary mixtures, which we call the similarity-based method (SBM). The method is based on quantifying the pairwise similarity of components, which we achieve by comparing quantum-chemical descriptors of the components, namely σ-profiles. The basic idea behind the approach is that mixtures with similar pairs of components will have similar thermodynamic properties. The SBM is trained on a matrix that contains some data for a given property for different binary mixtures; the missing entries are then predicted by the SBM. As an example, we consider the prediction of isothermal activity coefficients at infinite dilution (γ^infty_{ij}) and show that the SBM outperforms the well-established physical methods modified UNIFAC (Dortmund) and COSMO-SAC-dsp. In this case, the matrix is only sparsely occupied, and it is shown that the SBM works also if only a limited number of data for similar mixtures is available. The SBM idea can be transferred to any mixture property and is a powerful tool for generating essential data for many applications.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

State space models have shown to be effective at modeling long range dependencies, specially on sequence classification tasks. In this work we focus on autoregressive sequence modeling over English books, Github source code and ArXiv mathematics articles. Based on recent developments around the effectiveness of gated activation functions, we propose a new layer named Gated State Space (GSS) and show that it trains significantly faster than the diagonal version of S4 (i.e. DSS) on TPUs, is fairly competitive with several well-tuned Transformer-based baselines and exhibits zero-shot generalization to longer inputs while being straightforward to implement. Finally, we show that leveraging self-attention to model local dependencies improves the performance of GSS even further.

Practitioners commonly align large language models using pairwise preferences, i.e., given labels of the type response A is preferred to response B for a given input. Perhaps less commonly, methods have also been developed for binary feedback, i.e. training models given labels of type response A is good or bad. We show how an existing performant binary feedback method, the Cringe Loss (Adolphs et al., 2022), can be generalized to the pairwise preference setting using a simple soft margin extension. Pairwise Cringe Loss is straightforward to implement and efficient to train, and we find it outperforms state-of-the-art preference optimization algorithms such as PPO and DPO on the AlpacaFarm benchmark.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently demonstrated competitive performance to transformers at large-scale language modeling benchmarks while achieving linear time and memory complexity as a function of sequence length. Mamba, a recently released SSM model, shows impressive performance in both language modeling and long sequence processing tasks. Simultaneously, mixture-of-expert (MoE) models have shown remarkable performance while significantly reducing the compute and latency costs of inference at the expense of a larger memory footprint. In this paper, we present BlackMamba, a novel architecture that combines the Mamba SSM with MoE to obtain the benefits of both. We demonstrate that BlackMamba performs competitively against both Mamba and transformer baselines, and outperforms in inference and training FLOPs. We fully train and open-source 340M/1.5B and 630M/2.8B BlackMamba models on 300B tokens of a custom dataset. We show that BlackMamba inherits and combines both of the benefits of SSM and MoE architectures, combining linear-complexity generation from SSM with cheap and fast inference from MoE. We release all weights, checkpoints, and inference code open-source. Inference code at: https://github.com/Zyphra/BlackMamba

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

Symbolic world modeling requires inferring and representing an environment's transitional dynamics as an executable program. Prior work has focused on largely deterministic environments with abundant interaction data, simple mechanics, and human guidance. We address a more realistic and challenging setting, learning in a complex, stochastic environment where the agent has only "one life" to explore a hostile environment without human guidance. We introduce OneLife, a framework that models world dynamics through conditionally-activated programmatic laws within a probabilistic programming framework. Each law operates through a precondition-effect structure, activating in relevant world states. This creates a dynamic computation graph that routes inference and optimization only through relevant laws, avoiding scaling challenges when all laws contribute to predictions about a complex, hierarchical state, and enabling the learning of stochastic dynamics even with sparse rule activation. To evaluate our approach under these demanding constraints, we introduce a new evaluation protocol that measures (a) state ranking, the ability to distinguish plausible future states from implausible ones, and (b) state fidelity, the ability to generate future states that closely resemble reality. We develop and evaluate our framework on Crafter-OO, our reimplementation of the Crafter environment that exposes a structured, object-oriented symbolic state and a pure transition function that operates on that state alone. OneLife can successfully learn key environment dynamics from minimal, unguided interaction, outperforming a strong baseline on 16 out of 23 scenarios tested. We also test OneLife's planning ability, with simulated rollouts successfully identifying superior strategies. Our work establishes a foundation for autonomously constructing programmatic world models of unknown, complex environments.

LLM-agent based binary code analysis has demonstrated significant potential across a wide range of software security scenarios, including vulnerability detection, malware analysis, etc. In agent workflow, however, retrieving the positive from thousands of stripped binary functions based on user query remains under-studied and challenging, as the absence of symbolic information distinguishes it from source code retrieval. In this paper, we introduce, BinSeek, the first two-stage cross-modal retrieval framework for stripped binary code analysis. It consists of two models: BinSeekEmbedding is trained on large-scale dataset to learn the semantic relevance of the binary code and the natural language description, furthermore, BinSeek-Reranker learns to carefully judge the relevance of the candidate code to the description with context augmentation. To this end, we built an LLM-based data synthesis pipeline to automate training construction, also deriving a domain benchmark for future research. Our evaluation results show that BinSeek achieved the state-of-the-art performance, surpassing the the same scale models by 31.42% in Rec@3 and 27.17% in MRR@3, as well as leading the advanced general-purpose models that have 16 times larger parameters.

The theory of state tracking in recurrent architectures has predominantly focused on expressive capacity: whether a fixed architecture can theoretically realize a set of symbolic transition rules. We argue that equally important is error control, the dynamics governing hidden-state drift along the directions that distinguish symbolic states. We prove that affine recurrent networks, a class of models encompassing State-Space Models and Linear Attention, cannot correct errors along state-separating subspaces once they preserve state representations. Consequently, practical affine trackers do not learn robust state tracking; rather, they learn finite horizon solutions governed by accumulated state-relevant error. We characterize the mechanics of this failure, showing that tracking remains readable only while the accumulating within-class spread remains small relative to the initial between-class separation. We demonstrate empirically on group state-tracking tasks that this breakdown is predictable: tracking collapses when the distinguishability ratio crosses the readability threshold of the trained decoder. Across trained models, the point of this crossing predicts the horizon at which downstream accuracy fails. These results establish that robust state tracking is determined not only by an architecture's theoretical expressivity but crucially by its error control.

While Transformers and other sequence-parallelizable neural network architectures seem like the current state of the art in sequence modeling, they specifically lack state-tracking capabilities. These are important for time-series tasks and logical reasoning. Traditional RNNs like LSTMs and GRUs, as well as modern variants like sLSTM do have these capabilities at the cost of strictly sequential processing. While this is often seen as a strong limitation, we show how fast these networks can get with our hardware-optimization FlashRNN in Triton and CUDA, optimizing kernels to the register level on modern GPUs. We extend traditional RNNs with a parallelization variant that processes multiple RNNs of smaller hidden state in parallel, similar to the head-wise processing in Transformers. To enable flexibility on different GPU variants, we introduce a new optimization framework for hardware-internal cache sizes, memory and compute handling. It models the hardware in a setting using polyhedral-like constraints, including the notion of divisibility. This speeds up the solution process in our ConstrINT library for general integer constraint satisfaction problems (integer CSPs). We show that our kernels can achieve 50x speed-ups over a vanilla PyTorch implementation and allow 40x larger hidden sizes compared to our Triton implementation. Our open-source kernels and the optimization library are released here to boost research in the direction of state-tracking enabled RNNs and sequence modeling: https://github.com/NX-AI/flashrnn

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Training a model to predict the next step in a concurrent program is harder than it looks: two runs of the same program from the same trace prefix can produce different next events, both valid, because the scheduler is nondeterministic. A model trained against a single label is learning to guess one outcome of a random process. We turn this around and use the nondeterminism as a training signal. We run each program many times, aggregate the observed next events into an empirical distribution, and fine-tune a 7B model to match that distribution with a KL objective. On 798 held-out predictions drawn from real production Go bugs (CockroachDB, Kubernetes, gRPC, etcd), fine-tuning on fewer than a thousand traces reaches 36.2% accuracy, ahead of Gemini 3.5 Flash used zero-shot (34.8%) and the same model without fine-tuning (28.6%). Distribution training matches cross-entropy on accuracy (35.8% vs. 36.2%) while reducing Expected Calibration Error from 0.205 to 0.169. We also derive a formal goroutine-leak signature for a class of select-blocked goroutines where P(GoUnblock)=0 holds by scheduler semantics, not by learning. We release the dataset, trained adapters, and all tooling.