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Jul 29

Beta Embeddings for Multi-Hop Logical Reasoning in Knowledge Graphs

One of the fundamental problems in Artificial Intelligence is to perform complex multi-hop logical reasoning over the facts captured by a knowledge graph (KG). This problem is challenging, because KGs can be massive and incomplete. Recent approaches embed KG entities in a low dimensional space and then use these embeddings to find the answer entities. However, it has been an outstanding challenge of how to handle arbitrary first-order logic (FOL) queries as present methods are limited to only a subset of FOL operators. In particular, the negation operator is not supported. An additional limitation of present methods is also that they cannot naturally model uncertainty. Here, we present BetaE, a probabilistic embedding framework for answering arbitrary FOL queries over KGs. BetaE is the first method that can handle a complete set of first-order logical operations: conjunction (wedge), disjunction (vee), and negation (neg). A key insight of BetaE is to use probabilistic distributions with bounded support, specifically the Beta distribution, and embed queries/entities as distributions, which as a consequence allows us to also faithfully model uncertainty. Logical operations are performed in the embedding space by neural operators over the probabilistic embeddings. We demonstrate the performance of BetaE on answering arbitrary FOL queries on three large, incomplete KGs. While being more general, BetaE also increases relative performance by up to 25.4% over the current state-of-the-art KG reasoning methods that can only handle conjunctive queries without negation.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 21, 2020

Deformable Beta Splatting

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has advanced radiance field reconstruction by enabling real-time rendering. However, its reliance on Gaussian kernels for geometry and low-order Spherical Harmonics (SH) for color encoding limits its ability to capture complex geometries and diverse colors. We introduce Deformable Beta Splatting (DBS), a deformable and compact approach that enhances both geometry and color representation. DBS replaces Gaussian kernels with deformable Beta Kernels, which offer bounded support and adaptive frequency control to capture fine geometric details with higher fidelity while achieving better memory efficiency. In addition, we extended the Beta Kernel to color encoding, which facilitates improved representation of diffuse and specular components, yielding superior results compared to SH-based methods. Furthermore, Unlike prior densification techniques that depend on Gaussian properties, we mathematically prove that adjusting regularized opacity alone ensures distribution-preserved Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), independent of the splatting kernel type. Experimental results demonstrate that DBS achieves state-of-the-art visual quality while utilizing only 45% of the parameters and rendering 1.5x faster than 3DGS-MCMC, highlighting the superior performance of DBS for real-time radiance field rendering. Interactive demonstrations and source code are available on our project website: https://rongliu-leo.github.io/beta-splatting/.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 27, 2025

pAI-Econ-claude: A Gated Human-in-the-Loop Multi-Agent Architecture for AI-Assisted Economic Theory Development

In many social-science research tasks, such as economics, LLM-based agents must produce outputs for which no cheap, task-complete, machine-readable correctness signal exists. This creates a distinctive reliability problem for multi-agent systems: how should generation, critique, coordination, and human judgment be organized when no component can certify the final result? We address this problem through pAI-Econ-claude, a gated, human-in-the-loop multi-agent architecture for AI-assisted economic theory development. Agents coordinate through a shared workspace of inspectable intermediate records; specialized gates diagnose targeted failure modes and recommend loopbacks without certifying correctness; and human checkpoints retain authority over decisions that are costly to reverse. We evaluate the architecture on five matched economic-theory tasks against an ungated baseline. Two evaluators blinded to configuration agreed on all five pairwise rankings, preferring the gated architecture in four tasks and the baseline in one. Mean failure severity fell from 1.58 to 1.16, while overall usefulness rose from 2.60 to 3.10. The largest observed gain occurred when a reality check rejected a false market-structure premise and a proof review prompted revision of a false welfare claim. The negative case shows that scaffolding can also compress an economically important mechanism too aggressively. The results support a bounded claim: gated oversight improves the auditability of AI-assisted economic theory without substituting for formal verification, and the allocation of irreversible human judgment is a more informative design variable than pure agent autonomy. The workflow is publicly available at https://github.com/maxwell2732/pAI-Econ-claude.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 22

AutoPersonas: A Multi-Timescale Loop Engine for Open-Ended Persona Evolution

Long-term persona agents must remain identifiable while adapting to new events, relationships, evidence, and social conditions. We identify self-locking as a runtime failure mode in continuing persona-life loops: locally plausible events keep appearing while the generated life collapses toward familiar environments, weak relationships, suspended decisions, and stale life stages. We trace this failure to model-level convergence toward high-probability behavioral channels and system-level context gravity from State, memory, history, and environment summaries. We introduce AutoPersonas, a multi-timescale life-environment engine for bounded persona-level recursive self-evolution. It separates environment-side Occurrences, accumulated Observations, and persona State. Its OSO loop admits divergent future-facing material while requiring evidence-governed absorption before State or reachability changes. A three-year compressed simulation exposed environment watermark shells, occurrence-hardening gaps, slow-change accumulation failures, recursive indecision, and weak relationship persistence. An eight-model 40-day stress test generated 1,600 events and found mean rolling 5-day action-category repetition of 95.2%-97.6%, with all models crossing 90% by day 11. Semantic re-keeping found 79.0%-88.0% macro-theme repetition across all direct-loop runs. In a same-runtime 40-day A/B, context-slice masking plus per-sample divergence targeting reduced macro-theme repetition from 61.8% to 36.3% and roughly doubled cumulative theme count. A juvenile-goblin fictional-world run reproduced the anti-fixation regime without hard real-world intrusions. These results support a bounded claim: separating controlled divergence from evidence-governed absorption can reduce persona-environment self-locking while preserving identity continuity.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 8

VaseMuseum: Digital Intelligent Museum for Ancient Greek Pottery

Vision-language models (VLMs) have made interactive digital museums increasingly feasible by connecting 3D digitization with natural-language artifact exploration. However, in cultural heritage domains such as ancient Greek pottery, reliable VLM assistance is limited by two challenges. First, open-ended interpretation requires grounding fine-grained 2D/3D visual evidence in specialized curatorial knowledge, yet the retrieval process may introduce weak sources and unverifiable references. Second, when the available evidence is incomplete, noisy, or ambiguous, VLMs often produce confident but unsupported answers instead of calibrated uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose VaseMuseum, a lightweight and modular multimodal agent framework for intelligent digital museums of ancient Greek pottery. VaseMuseum combines an interactive virtual museum with VaseAgent, which supports both 2D images and 3D artifacts through multimodal perception, 3D-aware reasoning, external knowledge retrieval, and inference-time reliability control. Specifically, VaseAgent retrieves evidence from authoritative web and museum knowledge sources, and source-level control selects diverse and verifiable evidence before generation. Meanwhile, response-level control checks generated claims against the evidence pool and encourages neutral, evidence-bounded answers when support is insufficient or conflicting. Moreover, a training-free GRPO-style selection mechanism favors responses with valid references and calibrated confidence without updating the VLM backbone. Experiments in a realistic digital museum simulation show that VaseMuseum improves citation validity, reduces hallucinations on knowledge-intensive queries, and produces more neutral answers under ambiguity compared with search-enabled VLM baselines.

How Far Can Chord-Symbol Time-Series Adaptation Carry Genre Identity? Capabilities and Boundaries in Multi-Genre Chord-Symbol Modeling

Harmony is a compact symbolic layer where mathematical pitch relations, acoustic consonance, and musical convention meet. This report treats chord-symbol sequences not as a complete representation of music, but as an interpretable, controllable time series for genre-local harmonic modeling. Starting from a frozen pop-jazz Music Transformer checkpoint, I evaluate how far small adaptation interfaces can extend the model to eleven target genres: blues, bossa nova, Bach chorales, country, electronic, folk, funk, gospel, hip-hop, R&B/soul, and rock. The main evaluation compares LoRA, IA3, BitFit, prefix tuning, and full fine-tuning over 11 genres and 3 seeds, a complete 165-cell grid. All five methods improve over the frozen base on held-out chord prediction, with macro gains from +2.89 to +3.61 points; LoRA and IA3 score highest, but Wilcoxon tests with Holm and Benjamini-Hochberg correction do not support a decisive winner. A matched-data-size control sharpens this: when genres are sub-sampled to a common corpus size, IA3 stays on top but LoRA's full-data edge disappears and it falls to last, indicating the small gaps are partly data-driven. A control-token baseline is also strong, and wrong-genre adapters often beat the frozen base, suggesting much of the effect comes from lightweight conditioning over a reusable harmonic base rather than one particular adapter family. Additional diagnostics (rank sweeps, wrong-genre rotation, a base-checkpoint ablation, chord-only genre classification, generated-output statistics, real-song evaluation, and duplicate analysis) support a bounded conclusion: chord-symbol adaptation reliably improves genre-local harmonic prediction, but chord symbols alone do not carry complete genre identity. The report therefore avoids claims about perceived genre authenticity or full musical quality, which require controlled listener or musician evaluation.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 4 2

Learn-by-Wire Training Control Governance: Bounded Autonomous Training Under Stress for Stability and Efficiency

Modern language-model training is increasingly exposed to instability, degraded runs, and wasted compute, especially under aggressive learning-rate, scale, and runtime-stress conditions. This paper introduces Learn-by-Wire Guard (LBW-Guard), a bounded autonomous training-control governance layer that operates above AdamW. Rather than replacing the optimizer update rule, LBW-Guard observes training telemetry, interprets instability-sensitive regimes, and applies bounded control to optimizer execution while preserving fixed training objectives. We evaluate LBW-Guard in a Qwen2.5-centered stress-and-robustness suite using WikiText-103, with Qwen2.5-7B as the empirical anchor, model-size comparisons against Qwen2.5-3B and Qwen2.5-14B, learning-rate stress tests, gradient-clipping baselines, and a no-LoRA TinyLlama-1B full-parameter sanity check. In the 7B reference setting, LBW-Guard reduces final perplexity from 13.21 to 10.74, an 18.7% improvement, while reducing end-to-end time from 392.54s to 357.02s, a 1.10x speedup. Under stronger learning-rate stress, AdamW degrades to 1885.24 final perplexity at LR=3e-3 and 659.76 at LR=1e-3, whereas LBW-Guard remains trainable at 11.57 and 10.33, respectively. Gradient-clipping baselines do not reproduce this effect. These results support a scoped systems conclusion that stability-sensitive LLM training can benefit from a governance plane above the optimizer. LBW-Guard provides evidence that bounded runtime control can preserve productive compute under stress while remaining distinct from optimizer replacement and local gradient suppression.

QluonAI Qluon
·
May 17 1

Predicting Users' Value Changes by the Friends' Influence from Social Media Usage

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 12, 2021

Springdrift: An Auditable Persistent Runtime for LLM Agents with Case-Based Memory, Normative Safety, and Ambient Self-Perception

We present Springdrift, a persistent runtime for long-lived LLM agents. The system integrates an auditable execution substrate (append-only memory, supervised processes, git-backed recovery), a case-based reasoning memory layer with hybrid retrieval (evaluated against a dense cosine baseline), a deterministic normative calculus for safety gating with auditable axiom trails, and continuous ambient self-perception via a structured self-state representation (the sensorium) injected each cycle without tool calls. These properties support behaviours difficult to achieve in session-bounded systems: cross-session task continuity, cross-channel context maintenance, end-to-end forensic reconstruction of decisions, and self-diagnostic behaviour. We report on a single-instance deployment over 23 days (19 operating days), during which the agent diagnosed its own infrastructure bugs, classified failure modes, identified an architectural vulnerability, and maintained context across email and web channels -- without explicit instruction. We introduce the term Artificial Retainer for this category: a non-human system with persistent memory, defined authority, domain-specific autonomy, and forensic accountability in an ongoing relationship with a specific principal -- distinguished from software assistants and autonomous agents, drawing on professional retainer relationships and the bounded autonomy of trained working animals. This is a technical report on a systems design and deployment case study, not a benchmark-driven evaluation. Evidence is from a single instance with a single operator, presented as illustration of what these architectural properties can support in practice. Implemented in approximately Gleam on Erlang/OTP. Code, artefacts, and redacted operational logs will be available at https://github.com/seamus-brady/springdrift upon publication.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 5

DSDR: Dual-Scale Diversity Regularization for Exploration in LLM Reasoning

Reinforcement learning with verifiers (RLVR) is a central paradigm for improving large language model (LLM) reasoning, yet existing methods often suffer from limited exploration. Policies tend to collapse onto a few reasoning patterns and prematurely stop deep exploration, while conventional entropy regularization introduces only local stochasticity and fails to induce meaningful path-level diversity, leading to weak and unstable learning signals in group-based policy optimization. We propose DSDR, a Dual-Scale Diversity Regularization reinforcement learning framework that decomposes diversity in LLM reasoning into global and coupling components. Globally, DSDR promotes diversity among correct reasoning trajectories to explore distinct solution modes. Locally, it applies a length-invariant, token-level entropy regularization restricted to correct trajectories, preventing entropy collapse within each mode while preserving correctness. The two scales are coupled through a global-to-local allocation mechanism that emphasizes local regularization for more distinctive correct trajectories. We provide theoretical support showing that DSDR preserves optimal correctness under bounded regularization, sustains informative learning signals in group-based optimization, and yields a principled global-to-local coupling rule. Experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in accuracy and pass@k, highlighting the importance of dual-scale diversity for deep exploration in RLVR. Code is available at https://github.com/SUSTechBruce/DSDR.

  • 12 authors
·
Feb 23 2

HiMPO: Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization for Less-Entangled Credit in Long-Horizon Agents

Long-horizon agents rely on memory mechanisms to compress interaction history, but optimizing memory writing faces a distinct credit assignment challenge: a memory update may be rewarded or penalized due to downstream tool failures, noisy observations, or reasoning errors rather than its own contribution. This causally entangled credit can lead agents to discard useful evidence or preserve irrelevant information. We propose HiMPO, a Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization framework for assigning less-entangled credit to memory-writing actions in long-horizon agents. HiMPO first estimates the local utility of a memory update by comparing the task-relevant information recoverable from the previous and updated memories under the same pre-write state. It then uses hindsight relevance as a bounded retrospective filter that attenuates memory credit when local utility is not supported by the target outcome. The resulting memory-specific advantage is applied only to memory tokens, while trajectory-level rewards optimize the rest of the agent behavior. Across judge-based open-domain tasks and objective compressive-memory QA, HiMPO improves over strong memory-based and RL-based baselines while preserving compressed-context efficiency. Controlled interventions further show that HiMPO reduces blame leakage from tool-induced errors and improves attribution fidelity of memory updates.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 14

Echo-Forcing: A Scene Memory Framework for Interactive Long Video Generation

Autoregressive video diffusion models enable open-ended generation through local attention and KV caching. However, existing training-free long-video optimization methods mainly focus on stable extension under a single prompt, making them difficult to handle interactive scenarios involving prompt switching, old scene forgetting, and historical scene recall. We identify the core bottleneck as the functional entanglement of historical KV states: stable anchors and recent dynamics are handled by the same cache policy, leading to outdated background contamination, delayed response to new prompts, and loss of long-range memory. To address this issue, we propose Echo-Forcing, a training-free scene memory framework specifically designed for interactive long video generation with three core mechanisms: (1) Hierarchical Temporal Memory, which decouples stable anchors, compressed history, and recent windows under relative RoPE; (2) Scene Recall Frames, which compresses historical scenes into spatially structured KV representations to support long-term recall; and (3) Difference-aware Memory Decay, which adaptively forgets conflicting tokens according to the discrepancy between old and new scenes. Based on these designs, Echo-Forcing uniformly supports smooth transitions, hard cuts, and long-range scene recall under a bounded cache budget. Extensive evaluations on VBench-Long further demonstrate that Echo-Forcing achieves the best overall performance in both long-video generation and interactive video generation settings. Our code is released in https://github.com/mingqiangWu/Echo-Forcing

  • 11 authors
·
May 14 2

MedStreamBench: A Time-Aware Benchmark for Streaming and Proactive Medical Video Understanding

Existing medical video benchmarks primarily evaluate whether a model produces the correct answer, but rarely assess whether it answers at the right time. In real clinical settings, AI systems must decide not only what to predict, but also when to answer, defer judgment, or proactively raise alerts. This creates a critical gap between benchmark evaluation and deployment requirements. We present MedStreamBench, a benchmark for time-aware medical video understanding. MedStreamBench integrates 22 medical datasets and 5,419 QA instances across four temporal settings: retrospective, present, future, and proactive. Unlike conventional benchmarks that assume full-video access, MedStreamBench restricts models to temporally bounded evidence windows and supports both single-turn and streaming evaluation. We further introduce a proactive monitoring setting that requires models to determine whether and when clinically relevant alerts should be triggered. Beyond answer correctness, MedStreamBench evaluates temporal behavior through responsiveness and post-evidence stability. Experiments on leading general-purpose and medical vision-language models reveal a substantial gap between offline recognition and temporally grounded decision-making, with performance dropping markedly in streaming and proactive settings. Our benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Venn2024/MedStreamBench.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 1

ECHO: Prune to act, trace to learn with selective turn memory in agentic RL

Long-horizon language agents must repeatedly interact with tools, accumulate evidence, and make decisions under bounded context windows. Existing context-management methods make such rollouts feasible by truncating distant history, folding past turns into summaries, or selecting compact memory states. However, these breakthroughs introduce two coupled limitations. First, as the number of turns grows, historical observations are progressively removed or collapsed into compressed states, making it harder for the policy to reuse fine-grained evidence. Second, once the original turns are no longer source-addressable, outcome-based RL loses an explicit path for aligning policy updates with the evidence that supported a successful final answer. To this end, we propose ECHO, a selective turn-memory framework that jointly addresses history collapse and traceable learning through source-indexed reconstruction. Specifically, ECHO compresses each completed environment turn into a compact memory record, reconstructs bounded policy contexts by selecting from these records, and reuses the selected source indices to route positive outcome credit to the evidence and selection actions that support successful answers. On BrowseComp-Plus, ECHO reaches 43.4% held-out accuracy, outperforming GRPO (28.9%) and the rolling-summary baseline SUPO (36.1%), while using fewer turns and lower trajectory volume than SUPO (Figure 1). Additionally, the trained policy improves zero-shot generalization across multi-objective QA, code generation, and deep information-seeking benchmarks on both dense and MoE backbones.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 29

WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 8

PAC Generalization via Invariant Representations

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find invariant representations of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that the best model on top of the representation is invariant across training environments. In the context of linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), invariant representations might allow us to learn models with out-of-distribution guarantees, i.e., models that are robust to interventions in the SEM. To address the invariant representation problem in a {\em finite sample} setting, we consider the notion of epsilon-approximate invariance. We study the following question: If a representation is approximately invariant with respect to a given number of training interventions, will it continue to be approximately invariant on a larger collection of unseen SEMs? This larger collection of SEMs is generated through a parameterized family of interventions. Inspired by PAC learning, we obtain finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for approximate invariance that holds probabilistically over a family of linear SEMs without faithfulness assumptions. Our results show bounds that do not scale in ambient dimension when intervention sites are restricted to lie in a constant size subset of in-degree bounded nodes. We also show how to extend our results to a linear indirect observation model that incorporates latent variables.

  • 3 authors
·
May 30, 2022

Learning with Boolean threshold functions

We develop a method for training neural networks on Boolean data in which the values at all nodes are strictly pm 1, and the resulting models are typically equivalent to networks whose nonzero weights are also pm 1. The method replaces loss minimization with a nonconvex constraint formulation. Each node implements a Boolean threshold function (BTF), and training is expressed through a divide-and-concur decomposition into two complementary constraints: one enforces local BTF consistency between inputs, weights, and output; the other imposes architectural concurrence, equating neuron outputs with downstream inputs and enforcing weight equality across training-data instantiations of the network. The reflect-reflect-relax (RRR) projection algorithm is used to reconcile these constraints. Each BTF constraint includes a lower bound on the margin. When this bound is sufficiently large, the learned representations are provably sparse and equivalent to networks composed of simple logical gates with pm 1 weights. Across a range of tasks -- including multiplier-circuit discovery, binary autoencoding, logic-network inference, and cellular automata learning -- the method achieves exact solutions or strong generalization in regimes where standard gradient-based methods struggle. These results demonstrate that projection-based constraint satisfaction provides a viable and conceptually distinct foundation for learning in discrete neural systems, with implications for interpretability and efficient inference.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 19

Numerical Approximation Capacity of Neural Networks with Bounded Parameters: Do Limits Exist, and How Can They Be Measured?

The Universal Approximation Theorem posits that neural networks can theoretically possess unlimited approximation capacity with a suitable activation function and a freely chosen or trained set of parameters. However, a more practical scenario arises when these neural parameters, especially the nonlinear weights and biases, are bounded. This leads us to question: Does the approximation capacity of a neural network remain universal, or does it have a limit when the parameters are practically bounded? And if it has a limit, how can it be measured? Our theoretical study indicates that while universal approximation is theoretically feasible, in practical numerical scenarios, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with any analytic activation functions (such as Tanh and Sigmoid) can only be approximated by a finite-dimensional vector space under a bounded nonlinear parameter space (NP space), whether in a continuous or discrete sense. Based on this study, we introduce the concepts of ε outer measure and Numerical Span Dimension (NSdim) to quantify the approximation capacity limit of a family of networks both theoretically and practically. Furthermore, drawing on our new theoretical study and adopting a fresh perspective, we strive to understand the relationship between back-propagation neural networks and random parameter networks (such as the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)) with both finite and infinite width. We also aim to provide fresh insights into regularization, the trade-off between width and depth, parameter space, width redundancy, condensation, and other related important issues.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 25, 2024

Fantastic Generalization Measures are Nowhere to be Found

We study the notion of a generalization bound being uniformly tight, meaning that the difference between the bound and the population loss is small for all learning algorithms and all population distributions. Numerous generalization bounds have been proposed in the literature as potential explanations for the ability of neural networks to generalize in the overparameterized setting. However, in their paper ``Fantastic Generalization Measures and Where to Find Them,'' Jiang et al. (2020) examine more than a dozen generalization bounds, and show empirically that none of them are uniformly tight. This raises the question of whether uniformly-tight generalization bounds are at all possible in the overparameterized setting. We consider two types of generalization bounds: (1) bounds that may depend on the training set and the learned hypothesis (e.g., margin bounds). We prove mathematically that no such bound can be uniformly tight in the overparameterized setting; (2) bounds that may in addition also depend on the learning algorithm (e.g., stability bounds). For these bounds, we show a trade-off between the algorithm's performance and the bound's tightness. Namely, if the algorithm achieves good accuracy on certain distributions, then no generalization bound can be uniformly tight for it in the overparameterized setting. We explain how these formal results can, in our view, inform research on generalization bounds for neural networks, while stressing that other interpretations of these results are also possible.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 24, 2023

Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: An Empirical Risk-Design Framework Using Polymarket Data

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

  • 1 authors
·
May 10

Robust Counterfactual Explanations for Neural Networks With Probabilistic Guarantees

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

  • 5 authors
·
May 19, 2023

Momentum Benefits Non-IID Federated Learning Simply and Provably

Federated learning is a powerful paradigm for large-scale machine learning, but it faces significant challenges due to unreliable network connections, slow communication, and substantial data heterogeneity across clients. FedAvg and SCAFFOLD are two prominent algorithms to address these challenges. In particular, FedAvg employs multiple local updates before communicating with a central server, while SCAFFOLD maintains a control variable on each client to compensate for ``client drift'' in its local updates. Various methods have been proposed to enhance the convergence of these two algorithms, but they either make impractical adjustments to the algorithmic structure or rely on the assumption of bounded data heterogeneity. This paper explores the utilization of momentum to enhance the performance of FedAvg and SCAFFOLD. When all clients participate in the training process, we demonstrate that incorporating momentum allows FedAvg to converge without relying on the assumption of bounded data heterogeneity even using a constant local learning rate. This is novel and fairly surprising as existing analyses for FedAvg require bounded data heterogeneity even with diminishing local learning rates. In partial client participation, we show that momentum enables SCAFFOLD to converge provably faster without imposing any additional assumptions. Furthermore, we use momentum to develop new variance-reduced extensions of FedAvg and SCAFFOLD, which exhibit state-of-the-art convergence rates. Our experimental results support all theoretical findings.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 28, 2023

Row-Stochastic Matrices Can Provably Outperform Doubly Stochastic Matrices in Decentralized Learning

Decentralized learning often involves a weighted global loss with heterogeneous node weights λ. We revisit two natural strategies for incorporating these weights: (i) embedding them into the local losses to retain a uniform weight (and thus a doubly stochastic matrix), and (ii) keeping the original losses while employing a λ-induced row-stochastic matrix. Although prior work shows that both strategies target the same λ-weighted global loss, it remains unclear whether the Euclidean-space guarantees are tight and what fundamentally differentiates their behaviors. To clarify this, we develop a weighted Hilbert-space framework L^2(λ;R^d) and obtain convergence rates that are strictly tighter than those from standard Euclidean analysis. In this geometry, the row-stochastic matrix becomes self-adjoint whereas the doubly stochastic one does not, creating additional penalty terms that amplify consensus error, thereby slowing convergence. Consequently, the difference in convergence arises not only from spectral gaps but also from these penalty terms. We then derive sufficient conditions under which the row-stochastic design converges faster even with a smaller spectral gap. Finally, by using a Rayleigh-quotient and Loewner-order eigenvalue comparison, we further obtain topology conditions that guarantee this advantage and yield practical topology-design guidelines.

  • 5 authors
·
May 28

When Reasoning Models Hurt Behavioral Simulation: A Solver-Sampler Mismatch in Multi-Agent LLM Negotiation

Large language models are increasingly used as agents in social, economic, and policy simulations. A common assumption is that stronger reasoning should improve simulation fidelity. We argue that this assumption can fail when the objective is not to solve a strategic problem, but to sample plausible boundedly rational behavior. In such settings, reasoning-enhanced models can become better solvers and worse simulators: they can over-optimize for strategically dominant actions, collapse compromise-oriented terminal behavior, and sometimes exhibit a diversity-without-fidelity pattern in which local variation survives without outcome-level fidelity. We study this solver-sampler mismatch in three multi-agent negotiation environments adapted from earlier simulation work: an ambiguous fragmented-authority trading-limits scenario, an ambiguous unified-opposition trading-limits scenario, and a new-domain grid-curtailment case in emergency electricity management. We compare three reflection conditions, no reflection, bounded reflection, and native reasoning, across two primary model families and then extend the same protocol to direct OpenAI runs with GPT-4.1 and GPT-5.2. Across all three experiments, bounded reflection produces substantially more diverse and compromise-oriented trajectories than either no reflection or native reasoning. In the direct OpenAI extension, GPT-5.2 native ends in authority decisions in 45 of 45 runs across the three experiments, while GPT-5.2 bounded recovers compromise outcomes in every environment. The contribution is not a claim that reasoning is generally harmful. It is a methodological warning: model capability and simulation fidelity are different objectives, and behavioral simulation should qualify models as samplers, not only as solvers.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 11 2

Information-Theoretic Causal Bounds under Unmeasured Confounding

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated via flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.

  • 2 authors
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Jan 23

On the Fundamental Limits of LLMs at Scale

Large Language Models (LLMs) have benefited enormously from scaling, yet these gains are bounded by five fundamental limitations: (1) hallucination, (2) context compression, (3) reasoning degradation, (4) retrieval fragility, and (5) multimodal misalignment. While existing surveys describe these phenomena empirically, they lack a rigorous theoretical synthesis connecting them to the foundational limits of computation, information, and learning. This work closes that gap by presenting a unified, proof-informed framework that formalizes the innate theoretical ceilings of LLM scaling. First, computability and uncomputability imply an irreducible residue of error: for any computably enumerable model family, diagonalization guarantees inputs on which some model must fail, and undecidable queries (e.g., halting-style tasks) induce infinite failure sets for all computable predictors. Second, information-theoretic and statistical constraints bound attainable accuracy even on decidable tasks, finite description length enforces compression error, and long-tail factual knowledge requires prohibitive sample complexity. Third, geometric and computational effects compress long contexts far below their nominal size due to positional under-training, encoding attenuation, and softmax crowding. We further show how likelihood-based training favors pattern completion over inference, how retrieval under token limits suffers from semantic drift and coupling noise, and how multimodal scaling inherits shallow cross-modal alignment. Across sections, we pair theorems and empirical evidence to outline where scaling helps, where it saturates, and where it cannot progress, providing both theoretical foundations and practical mitigation paths like bounded-oracle retrieval, positional curricula, and sparse or hierarchical attention.

  • 16 authors
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Jan 25

EControl: Fast Distributed Optimization with Compression and Error Control

Modern distributed training relies heavily on communication compression to reduce the communication overhead. In this work, we study algorithms employing a popular class of contractive compressors in order to reduce communication overhead. However, the naive implementation often leads to unstable convergence or even exponential divergence due to the compression bias. Error Compensation (EC) is an extremely popular mechanism to mitigate the aforementioned issues during the training of models enhanced by contractive compression operators. Compared to the effectiveness of EC in the data homogeneous regime, the understanding of the practicality and theoretical foundations of EC in the data heterogeneous regime is limited. Existing convergence analyses typically rely on strong assumptions such as bounded gradients, bounded data heterogeneity, or large batch accesses, which are often infeasible in modern machine learning applications. We resolve the majority of current issues by proposing EControl, a novel mechanism that can regulate error compensation by controlling the strength of the feedback signal. We prove fast convergence for EControl in standard strongly convex, general convex, and nonconvex settings without any additional assumptions on the problem or data heterogeneity. We conduct extensive numerical evaluations to illustrate the efficacy of our method and support our theoretical findings.

  • 3 authors
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Nov 6, 2023

Out-Of-Domain Unlabeled Data Improves Generalization

We propose a novel framework for incorporating unlabeled data into semi-supervised classification problems, where scenarios involving the minimization of either i) adversarially robust or ii) non-robust loss functions have been considered. Notably, we allow the unlabeled samples to deviate slightly (in total variation sense) from the in-domain distribution. The core idea behind our framework is to combine Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with self-supervised training. As a result, we also leverage efficient polynomial-time algorithms for the training stage. From a theoretical standpoint, we apply our framework on the classification problem of a mixture of two Gaussians in R^d, where in addition to the m independent and labeled samples from the true distribution, a set of n (usually with ngg m) out of domain and unlabeled samples are given as well. Using only the labeled data, it is known that the generalization error can be bounded by proptoleft(d/mright)^{1/2}. However, using our method on both isotropic and non-isotropic Gaussian mixture models, one can derive a new set of analytically explicit and non-asymptotic bounds which show substantial improvement on the generalization error compared to ERM. Our results underscore two significant insights: 1) out-of-domain samples, even when unlabeled, can be harnessed to narrow the generalization gap, provided that the true data distribution adheres to a form of the ``cluster assumption", and 2) the semi-supervised learning paradigm can be regarded as a special case of our framework when there are no distributional shifts. We validate our claims through experiments conducted on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.

  • 6 authors
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Sep 28, 2023

Bounded Hyperbolic Tangent: A Stable and Efficient Alternative to Pre-Layer Normalization in Large Language Models

Pre-Layer Normalization (Pre-LN) is the de facto choice for large language models (LLMs) and is crucial for stable pretraining and effective transfer learning. However, Pre-LN is inefficient due to repeated statistical calculations and suffers from the curse of depth. As layers grow, the magnitude and variance of the hidden state escalate, destabilizing training. Efficiency-oriented normalization-free methods such as Dynamic Tanh (DyT) improve speed but remain fragile at depth. To jointly address stability and efficiency, we propose Bounded Hyperbolic Tanh (BHyT), a drop-in replacement for Pre-LN. BHyT couples a tanh nonlinearity with explicit, data-driven input bounding to keep activations within a non-saturating range. It prevents depth-wise growth in activation magnitude and variance and comes with a theoretical stability guarantee. For efficiency, BHyT computes exact statistics once per block and replaces a second normalization with a lightweight variance approximation, enhancing efficiency. Empirically, BHyT demonstrates improved stability and efficiency during pretraining, achieving an average of 15.8% faster training and an average of 4.2% higher token generation throughput compared to RMSNorm., while matching or surpassing its inference performance and robustness across language understanding and reasoning benchmarks. Our code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/BHyT

  • 5 authors
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Dec 26, 2025

Understanding Certified Training with Interval Bound Propagation

As robustness verification methods are becoming more precise, training certifiably robust neural networks is becoming ever more relevant. To this end, certified training methods compute and then optimize an upper bound on the worst-case loss over a robustness specification. Curiously, training methods based on the imprecise interval bound propagation (IBP) consistently outperform those leveraging more precise bounding methods. Still, we lack an understanding of the mechanisms making IBP so successful. In this work, we thoroughly investigate these mechanisms by leveraging a novel metric measuring the tightness of IBP bounds. We first show theoretically that, for deep linear models, tightness decreases with width and depth at initialization, but improves with IBP training, given sufficient network width. We, then, derive sufficient and necessary conditions on weight matrices for IBP bounds to become exact and demonstrate that these impose strong regularization, explaining the empirically observed trade-off between robustness and accuracy in certified training. Our extensive experimental evaluation validates our theoretical predictions for ReLU networks, including that wider networks improve performance, yielding state-of-the-art results. Interestingly, we observe that while all IBP-based training methods lead to high tightness, this is neither sufficient nor necessary to achieve high certifiable robustness. This hints at the existence of new training methods that do not induce the strong regularization required for tight IBP bounds, leading to improved robustness and standard accuracy.

  • 4 authors
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Jun 17, 2023