Daily Papers

Bounding boxes uniquely characterize object detection, where a good detector gives accurate bounding boxes of categories of interest. However, in the real-world where test ground truths are not provided, it is non-trivial to find out whether bounding boxes are accurate, thus preventing us from assessing the detector generalization ability. In this work, we find under feature map dropout, good detectors tend to output bounding boxes whose locations do not change much, while bounding boxes of poor detectors will undergo noticeable position changes. We compute the box stability score (BoS score) to reflect this stability. Specifically, given an image, we compute a normal set of bounding boxes and a second set after feature map dropout. To obtain BoS score, we use bipartite matching to find the corresponding boxes between the two sets and compute the average Intersection over Union (IoU) across the entire test set. We contribute to finding that BoS score has a strong, positive correlation with detection accuracy measured by mean average precision (mAP) under various test environments. This relationship allows us to predict the accuracy of detectors on various real-world test sets without accessing test ground truths, verified on canonical detection tasks such as vehicle detection and pedestrian detection. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YangYangGirl/BoS.

We introduce JP-TL-Bench, a lightweight, open benchmark designed to guide the iterative development of Japanese-English translation systems. In this context, the challenge is often "which of these two good translations is better?" rather than "is this translation acceptable?" This distinction matters for Japanese-English, where subtle choices in politeness, implicature, ellipsis, and register strongly affect perceived naturalness. JP-TL-Bench uses a protocol built to make LLM judging both reliable and affordable: it evaluates a candidate model via reference-free, pairwise LLM comparisons against a fixed, versioned anchor set. Pairwise results are aggregated with a Bradley-Terry model and reported as win rates plus a normalized 0-10 "LT" score derived from a logistic transform of fitted log-strengths. Because each candidate is scored against the same frozen anchor set, scores are structurally stable given the same base set, judge, and aggregation code.

Bounding boxes are often used to communicate automatic object detection results to humans, aiding humans in a multitude of tasks. We investigate the relationship between bounding box localization errors and human task performance. We use observer performance studies on a visual multi-object counting task to measure both human trust and performance with different levels of bounding box accuracy. The results show that localization errors have no significant impact on human accuracy or trust in the system. Recall and precision errors impact both human performance and trust, suggesting that optimizing algorithms based on the F1 score is more beneficial in human-computer tasks. Lastly, the paper offers an improvement on bounding boxes in multi-object counting tasks with center dots, showing improved performance and better resilience to localization inaccuracy.

ICC's current ranking system does not adequately account for key contextual factors such as home advantage, toss impact and scheduling imbalances; leading to inconsistencies in team evaluation in Test cricket. This study develops an enhanced rating framework by adapting and enhancing Glicko's model to incorporate these influences alongside Margin of Victory, an important indicator of dominance a contest. This enables a more dynamic and probabilistically grounded assessment of team performance. Using past match data, the model demonstrates improved expected score estimation and predictive accuracy. Robustness of the resulting ratings is demonstrated through bootstrap resampling, confirming stability with respect to match scheduling. Overall, the framework provides a fairer and more statistically consistent approach to ranking Test teams.

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

This paper poses two critical issues in evaluating base models (without post-training): (1) Unstable evaluation during training: in the early stages of pre-training, the models lack the capability to answer questions as required, leading to unstable evaluation results. This instability makes it difficult to provide solid conclusions to guide the training, especially for key experiments such as data ablation and scaling law. (2) Inconsistency between base and instruct models: base models generally exhibit poorer evaluation performance compared to corresponding instruct models. This gap poses a challenge for assessing whether a base model with better evaluation can truly lead to a better instruct model. To address these issues, we propose Base model Oriented Systematic Evaluation (BOSE), a method specifically designed to optimize the evaluation of base models. Specifically, BOSE introduces two key innovations: In-Context Light-instruction Prompt (ICLiP) for open-ended tasks and Blank-ppl for multi-choice tasks with candidate options, which transforms the standard perplexity (ppl) metric into a fill-in-the-blank format to mitigate early-stage evaluation fluctuations. Furthermore, we are the first to propose Kendall's rank correlation to quantitatively measure the evaluation stability and consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that BOSE significantly enhances both the stability of evaluations during pre-training and the consistency between base and instruct models, thereby providing more reliable guidance for the LLMs' training.

Bagging is an important technique for stabilizing machine learning models. In this paper, we derive a finite-sample guarantee on the stability of bagging for any model. Our result places no assumptions on the distribution of the data, on the properties of the base algorithm, or on the dimensionality of the covariates. Our guarantee applies to many variants of bagging and is optimal up to a constant. Empirical results validate our findings, showing that bagging successfully stabilizes even highly unstable base algorithms.

Competitive sports require sophisticated tactical analysis, yet combat disciplines like boxing remain underdeveloped in AI-driven analytics due to the complexity of action dynamics and the lack of structured tactical representations. To address this, we present BoxMind, a closed-loop AI expert system validated in elite boxing competition. By defining atomic punch events with precise temporal boundaries and spatial and technical attributes, we parse match footage into 18 hierarchical technical-tactical indicators. We then propose a graph-based predictive model that fuses these explicit technical-tactical profiles with learnable, time-variant latent embeddings to capture the dynamics of boxer matchups. Modeling match outcome as a differentiable function of technical-tactical indicators, we turn winning probability gradients into executable tactical adjustments. Experiments show that the outcome prediction model achieves state-of-the-art performance, with 69.8% accuracy on BoxerGraph test set and 87.5% on Olympic matches. Using this predictive model as a foundation, the system generates strategic recommendations that demonstrate proficiency comparable to human experts. BoxMind is validated through a closed-loop deployment during the 2024 Paris Olympics, directly contributing to the Chinese National Team's historic achievement of three gold and two silver medals. BoxMind establishes a replicable paradigm for transforming unstructured video data into strategic intelligence, bridging the gap between computer vision and decision support in competitive sports.

Most papers caution against using predictive models for disease stratification based on unselected radiomic features, as these features are affected by contouring variability. Instead, they advocate for the use of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) as a measure of stability for feature selection. However, the direct effect of segmentation variability on the predictive models is rarely studied. This study investigates the impact of segmentation variability on feature stability and predictive performance in radiomics-based prediction of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A total of 244 images from the Duke dataset were used, with segmentation variability introduced through modifications of manual segmentations. For each mask, explainable radiomic features were selected using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method and used to train logistic regression models. Feature stability across segmentations was assessed via ICC, Pearson's correlation, and reliability scores quantifying the relationship between feature stability and segmentation variability. Results indicate that segmentation accuracy does not significantly impact predictive performance. While incorporating peritumoral information may reduce feature reproducibility, it does not diminish feature predictive capability. Moreover, feature selection in predictive models is not inherently tied to feature stability with respect to segmentation, suggesting that an overreliance on ICC or reliability scores for feature selection might exclude valuable predictive features.

Text-guided image and 3D editing have advanced with diffusion-based models, yet methods like Delta Denoising Score often struggle with stability, spatial control, and editing strength. These limitations stem from reliance on complex auxiliary structures, which introduce conflicting optimization signals and restrict precise, localized edits. We introduce Stable Score Distillation (SSD), a streamlined framework that enhances stability and alignment in the editing process by anchoring a single classifier to the source prompt. Specifically, SSD utilizes Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) equation to achieves cross-prompt alignment, and introduces a constant term null-text branch to stabilize the optimization process. This approach preserves the original content's structure and ensures that editing trajectories are closely aligned with the source prompt, enabling smooth, prompt-specific modifications while maintaining coherence in surrounding regions. Additionally, SSD incorporates a prompt enhancement branch to boost editing strength, particularly for style transformations. Our method achieves state-of-the-art results in 2D and 3D editing tasks, including NeRF and text-driven style edits, with faster convergence and reduced complexity, providing a robust and efficient solution for text-guided editing.

LLM-judged benchmarks are increasingly used to evaluate complex model behaviors, yet their design introduces failure modes absent in conventional ground-truth based benchmarks. We argue that without tight objectives and verifiable constructions, benchmark rankings can produce high-confidence rankings that are in fact largely noise. We introduce two mechanisms to diagnose these issues. Schematic adherence quantifies how much of a judge's overall verdict is explained by the explicit evaluation schema, revealing unexplained variance when judges deviate from their own rubric. Psychometric validity aggregates internal consistency and discriminant validity signals to quantify irreducible uncertainty in any benchmarking run. Applying these tools to Arena-Hard Auto, we find severe schema incoherence and factor collapse across popular judges: for example, unexplained variance exceeding 90 percent for DeepSeek-R1-32B and factor correlations above 0.93 for most criteria. We also show that the ELO-style aggregation used by Arena-Hard Auto collapses and masks genuine ranking uncertainty. Our results highlight design failures that undermine validity and offer actionable principles for building better-scoped, reliability-aware LLM-judged benchmarks. We release our code at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/judgment-to-noise-947D/README.md

Reliable deployment of language models requires two capabilities that appear distinct but share a common geometric foundation: predicting whether a model will accept targeted behavioral control, and detecting when its internal structure degrades. We show that geometric stability, the consistency of a representation's pairwise distance structure, addresses both. Supervised Shesha variants that measure task-aligned geometric stability predict linear steerability with near-perfect accuracy (ρ= 0.89-0.97) across 35-69 embedding models and three NLP tasks, capturing unique variance beyond class separability (partial ρ= 0.62-0.76). A critical dissociation emerges: unsupervised stability fails entirely for steering on real-world tasks (ρapprox 0.10), revealing that task alignment is essential for controllability prediction. However, unsupervised stability excels at drift detection, measuring nearly 2times greater geometric change than CKA during post-training alignment (up to 5.23times in Llama) while providing earlier warning in 73\% of models and maintaining a 6times lower false alarm rate than Procrustes. Together, supervised and unsupervised stability form complementary diagnostics for the LLM deployment lifecycle: one for pre-deployment controllability assessment, the other for post-deployment monitoring.

Automated Essay Score (AES) is proven to be one of the cutting-edge technologies. Scoring techniques are used for various purposes. Reliable scores are calculated based on influential variables. Such variables can be computed by different methods based on the domain. The research is concentrated on the user's understanding of a given topic. The analysis is based on a scoring index by using Large Language Models. The user can then compare and contrast the understanding of a topic that they recently learned. The results are then contributed towards learning analytics and progression is made for enhancing the learning ability. In this research, the focus is on summarizing a PDF document and gauging a user's understanding of its content. The process involves utilizing a Langchain tool to summarize the PDF and extract the essential information. By employing this technique, the research aims to determine how well the user comprehends the summarized content.

Creating test collections for offline retrieval evaluation requires human effort to judge documents' relevance. This expensive activity motivated much work in developing methods for constructing benchmarks with fewer assessment costs. In this respect, adjudication methods actively decide both which documents and the order in which experts review them, in order to better exploit the assessment budget or to lower it. Researchers evaluate the quality of those methods by measuring the correlation between the known gold ranking of systems under the full collection and the observed ranking of systems under the lower-cost one. This traditional analysis ignores whether and how the low-cost judgements impact on the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to the full collection. We fill this void by proposing a novel methodology to evaluate how the low-cost adjudication methods preserve the pairwise significant differences between systems as the full collection. In other terms, while traditional approaches look for stability in answering the question "is system A better than system B?", our proposed approach looks for stability in answering the question "is system A significantly better than system B?", which is the ultimate questions researchers need to answer to guarantee the generalisability of their results. Among other results, we found that the best methods in terms of ranking of systems correlation do not always match those preserving statistical significance.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

Deep-learning based Automatic Essay Scoring (AES) systems are being actively used by states and language testing agencies alike to evaluate millions of candidates for life-changing decisions ranging from college applications to visa approvals. However, little research has been put to understand and interpret the black-box nature of deep-learning based scoring algorithms. Previous studies indicate that scoring models can be easily fooled. In this paper, we explore the reason behind their surprising adversarial brittleness. We utilize recent advances in interpretability to find the extent to which features such as coherence, content, vocabulary, and relevance are important for automated scoring mechanisms. We use this to investigate the oversensitivity i.e., large change in output score with a little change in input essay content) and overstability i.e., little change in output scores with large changes in input essay content) of AES. Our results indicate that autoscoring models, despite getting trained as "end-to-end" models with rich contextual embeddings such as BERT, behave like bag-of-words models. A few words determine the essay score without the requirement of any context making the model largely overstable. This is in stark contrast to recent probing studies on pre-trained representation learning models, which show that rich linguistic features such as parts-of-speech and morphology are encoded by them. Further, we also find that the models have learnt dataset biases, making them oversensitive. To deal with these issues, we propose detection-based protection models that can detect oversensitivity and overstability causing samples with high accuracies. We find that our proposed models are able to detect unusual attribution patterns and flag adversarial samples successfully.

The trade-off between robustness and accuracy has been widely studied in the adversarial literature. Although still controversial, the prevailing view is that this trade-off is inherent, either empirically or theoretically. Thus, we dig for the origin of this trade-off in adversarial training and find that it may stem from the improperly defined robust error, which imposes an inductive bias of local invariance -- an overcorrection towards smoothness. Given this, we advocate employing local equivariance to describe the ideal behavior of a robust model, leading to a self-consistent robust error named SCORE. By definition, SCORE facilitates the reconciliation between robustness and accuracy, while still handling the worst-case uncertainty via robust optimization. By simply substituting KL divergence with variants of distance metrics, SCORE can be efficiently minimized. Empirically, our models achieve top-rank performance on RobustBench under AutoAttack. Besides, SCORE provides instructive insights for explaining the overfitting phenomenon and semantic input gradients observed on robust models. Code is available at https://github.com/P2333/SCORE.

Sycophancy in LLMs is documented across 70+ papers, but expert agreement on construct boundaries remains low (ICC=.184; Ye et al., 2026). The construct fragments because behavioral classification depends on which surface form is privileged. We adopt a materials-science framing: conversation as test specimen under load, LLM-model as material charge, pushback as progressive load, stance-flip as material failure. We characterize this failure across three loading cases (debate n=1000; false-presuppositions n=3400; ethical-setting n=3400; 10-17 material charges per case; 7800 specimens total) using 14 turn-level axis-measurements spanning velocity, damage accumulation, frame-drift, brittleness, and direction stability, plus three speaker-resolved axes from an independent pipeline. The measurements are Hooke-coupled (σ= E cdot varepsilon analog) and reproduce across loading cases with effects up to |r_{rb}| = 0.35 on debate; the sign structure adds a second pattern: the ethical-setting case inverts the velocity and accumulation blocks. Variance composition partitions into two profiles: debate is charge-dominated (brittle-fracture-like: the material grade decides), false-presuppositions and ethical-setting are topic-dominated (creep-like: the load decides); the ratios (2.03 vs 0.13/0.17) are estimator-dependent, for debate even in direction. Cross-judge reliability (GPT-4o vs Haiku 4.5) shows debate scoring is judge-robust (Cohen's κ= 0.88) while false-presupposition scoring is judge-sensitive (κ= 0.36) -- a caveat single-judge benchmarks must report. This is the methodological move Ye et al.'s diagnosis calls for: a multi-axis characterization that does not depend on which surface form of the construct one privileges.

Standard accuracy benchmarks are designed to test how closely large language models (LLMs) approach correct answers, but are not suitable for testing whether LLMs stick with a correct answer when that answer is challenged by a plausible counter-argument. We introduce a controlled protocol for evaluating answer stability: after a model answers a multiple-choice question correctly, we challenge the model's answer with a coherent argument for an incorrect option and measure whether the model flips. The setup a) isolates argumentative content from overt social pressure and b) varies argument length, self-attribution, and cross-model source. Across seven frontier models and 57 MMLU subjects, flip rates range from 17.5% to 97.3%, revealing large differences in stability that are not captured by accuracy metrics alone. We find that self-attribution consistently increases flip rates (mean +7.1pp, up to +18.7pp). Also, pooling wrong-answer arguments across models and selecting the most effective one per question yields stronger adversarial challenges than relying on any single source model. We further construct MaxFlip, a curated challenge set that amplifies flips by up to +23.6pp over standard self-generated challenges. We release the protocol, challenge records, and MaxFlip to support stability evaluation alongside standard accuracy benchmarks. Materials are available at https://github.com/nafisenik/WhoFlips and https://hf.co/datasets/nafisehNik/WhoFlips.

Recent advancements in Language Models (LMs) have catalyzed the creation of multiple benchmarks, designed to assess these models' general capabilities. A crucial task, however, is assessing the validity of the benchmarks themselves. This is most commonly done via Benchmark Agreement Testing (BAT), where new benchmarks are validated against established ones using some agreement metric (e.g., rank correlation). Despite the crucial role of BAT for benchmark builders and consumers, there are no standardized procedures for such agreement testing. This deficiency can lead to invalid conclusions, fostering mistrust in benchmarks and upending the ability to properly choose the appropriate benchmark to use. By analyzing over 40 prominent benchmarks, we demonstrate how some overlooked methodological choices can significantly influence BAT results, potentially undermining the validity of conclusions. To address these inconsistencies, we propose a set of best practices for BAT and demonstrate how utilizing these methodologies greatly improves BAT robustness and validity. To foster adoption and facilitate future research,, we introduce BenchBench, a python package for BAT, and release the BenchBench-leaderboard, a meta-benchmark designed to evaluate benchmarks using their peers. Our findings underscore the necessity for standardized BAT, ensuring the robustness and validity of benchmark evaluations in the evolving landscape of language model research. BenchBench Package: https://github.com/IBM/BenchBench Leaderboard: https://huggingface.co/spaces/per/BenchBench

Part-prototype networks (e.g., ProtoPNet, ProtoTree and ProtoPool) have attracted broad research interest for their intrinsic interpretability and comparable accuracy to non-interpretable counterparts. However, recent works find that the interpretability from prototypes is fragile, due to the semantic gap between the similarities in the feature space and that in the input space. In this work, we strive to address this challenge by making the first attempt to quantitatively and objectively evaluate the interpretability of the part-prototype networks. Specifically, we propose two evaluation metrics, termed as consistency score and stability score, to evaluate the explanation consistency across images and the explanation robustness against perturbations, respectively, both of which are essential for explanations taken into practice. Furthermore, we propose an elaborated part-prototype network with a shallow-deep feature alignment (SDFA) module and a score aggregation (SA) module to improve the interpretability of prototypes. We conduct systematical evaluation experiments and provide substantial discussions to uncover the interpretability of existing part-prototype networks. Experiments on three benchmarks across nine architectures demonstrate that our model achieves significantly superior performance to the state of the art, in both the accuracy and interpretability. Codes are available at https://github.com/hqhQAQ/EvalProtoPNet.

K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is one of the most used ML classifiers. However, if we observe closely, standard distance-weighted KNN and relative variants assume all 'k' neighbors are equally reliable. In heterogeneous feature space, this becomes a limitation that hinders reliability in predicting true levels of the observation. We propose DW-KNN (Double Weighted KNN), a transparent and robust variant that integrates exponential distance with neighbor validity. This enables instance-level interpretability, suppresses noisy or mislabeled samples, and reduces hyperparameter sensitivity. Comprehensive evaluation on 9 data-sets helps to demonstrate that DW-KNN achieves 0.8988 accuracy on average. It ranks 2nd among six methods and within 0.2% of the best-performing Ensemble KNN. It also exhibits the lowest cross-validation variance (0.0156), indicating reliable prediction stability. Statistical significance test confirmed (p < 0.001) improvement over compactness weighted KNN (+4.09\%) and Kernel weighted KNN (+1.13\%). The method provides a simple yet effective alternative to complex adaptive schemes, particularly valuable for high-stakes applications requiring explainable predictions.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where reasoning, such as multi-step problem solving and chain-of-thought, is essential. Yet, current evaluation practices overwhelmingly report single-run accuracy while ignoring the intrinsic uncertainty that naturally arises from stochastic decoding. This omission creates a blind spot because practitioners cannot reliably assess whether a method's reported performance is stable, reproducible, or cost-consistent. We introduce ReasonBENCH, the first benchmark designed to quantify the underlying instability in LLM reasoning. ReasonBENCH provides (i) a modular evaluation library that standardizes reasoning frameworks, models, and tasks, (ii) a multi-run protocol that reports statistically reliable metrics for both quality and cost, and (iii) a public leaderboard to encourage variance-aware reporting. Across tasks from different domains, we find that the vast majority of reasoning strategies and models exhibit high instability. Notably, even strategies with similar average performance can display confidence intervals up to four times wider, and the top-performing methods often incur higher and less stable costs. Such instability compromises reproducibility across runs and, consequently, the reliability of reported performance. To better understand these dynamics, we further analyze the impact of prompts, model families, and scale on the trade-off between solve rate and stability. Our results highlight reproducibility as a critical dimension for reliable LLM reasoning and provide a foundation for future reasoning methods and uncertainty quantification techniques. ReasonBENCH is publicly available at https://github.com/au-clan/ReasonBench .

Existing Score-Based Models (SBMs) can be categorized into constrained SBMs (CSBMs) or unconstrained SBMs (USBMs) according to their parameterization approaches. CSBMs model probability density functions as Boltzmann distributions, and assign their predictions as the negative gradients of some scalar-valued energy functions. On the other hand, USBMs employ flexible architectures capable of directly estimating scores without the need to explicitly model energy functions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the architectural constraints of CSBMs may limit their modeling ability. In addition, we show that USBMs' inability to preserve the property of conservativeness may lead to degraded performance in practice. To address the above issues, we propose Quasi-Conservative Score-Based Models (QCSBMs) for keeping the advantages of both CSBMs and USBMs. Our theoretical derivations demonstrate that the training objective of QCSBMs can be efficiently integrated into the training processes by leveraging the Hutchinson's trace estimator. In addition, our experimental results on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and SVHN datasets validate the effectiveness of QCSBMs. Finally, we justify the advantage of QCSBMs using an example of a one-layered autoencoder.

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

Prediction models can exhibit sensitivity with respect to training data: small changes in the training data can produce models that assign conflicting predictions to individual data points during test time. In this work, we study this sensitivity in recommender systems, where users' recommendations are drastically altered by minor perturbations in other unrelated users' interactions. We introduce a measure of stability for recommender systems, called Rank List Sensitivity (RLS), which measures how rank lists generated by a given recommender system at test time change as a result of a perturbation in the training data. We develop a method, CASPER, which uses cascading effect to identify the minimal and systematical perturbation to induce higher instability in a recommender system. Experiments on four datasets show that recommender models are overly sensitive to minor perturbations introduced randomly or via CASPER - even perturbing one random interaction of one user drastically changes the recommendation lists of all users. Importantly, with CASPER perturbation, the models generate more unstable recommendations for low-accuracy users (i.e., those who receive low-quality recommendations) than high-accuracy ones.

We present a bag of tricks framework for few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL), which is a challenging form of continual learning that involves continuous adaptation to new tasks with limited samples. FSCIL requires both stability and adaptability, i.e., preserving proficiency in previously learned tasks while learning new ones. Our proposed bag of tricks brings together eight key and highly influential techniques that improve stability, adaptability, and overall performance under a unified framework for FSCIL. We organize these tricks into three categories: stability tricks, adaptability tricks, and training tricks. Stability tricks aim to mitigate the forgetting of previously learned classes by enhancing the separation between the embeddings of learned classes and minimizing interference when learning new ones. On the other hand, adaptability tricks focus on the effective learning of new classes. Finally, training tricks improve the overall performance without compromising stability or adaptability. We perform extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets, CIFAR-100, CUB-200, and miniIMageNet, to evaluate the impact of our proposed framework. Our detailed analysis shows that our approach substantially improves both stability and adaptability, establishing a new state-of-the-art by outperforming prior works in the area. We believe our method provides a go-to solution and establishes a robust baseline for future research in this area.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across various tasks, but their deployment in high-stake domains requires consistent performance across multiple interaction rounds. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for evaluating and improving LLM response consistency, making three key contributions. First, we propose a novel Position-Weighted Consistency (PWC) score that captures both the importance of early-stage stability and recovery patterns in multi-turn interactions. Second, we present a carefully curated benchmark dataset spanning diverse domains and difficulty levels, specifically designed to evaluate LLM consistency under various challenging follow-up scenarios. Third, we introduce Confidence-Aware Response Generation (CARG), a framework that significantly improves response stability by incorporating model confidence signals into the generation process. Empirical results demonstrate that CARG significantly improves response stability without sacrificing accuracy, underscoring its potential for reliable LLM deployment in critical applications.

When many people highlight the same document, is the crowd a single consensus, or is it internally structured into reader sub-groups that mark different things -- and is that structure a stable property of a reader or of the document? Building on prior work showing an individual's within-document highlighting signal is a whisper while individuality lives in selection, we ask the group-level question on a co-readership platform using a margin-preserving curveball null. Experiment 1: within a document, readers form strong sub-groups -- pairs agree far beyond what shared salience, mark density, and sentence popularity predict (nearest-neighbour agreement z=+6.3, significant in 88% of documents). Under an eight-block region-preserving null, shared engagement with the same coarse regions of the document accounts for about 40% of this excess; the majority survives as finer reader-specific agreement (z=+3.6, 77% significant). So the within-document crowd is, in a descriptive sense, factional. Experiment 2: is that grouping a stable reader trait? Here we are honest about power. The cross-document split-half reproducibility of a pair's agreement is near zero pooled (+0.078 and 0.000 in two separately drawn samples), and a power calibration shows the test is informative only for pairs that co-read many documents. In the only informative high-overlap subset (k>=4), point estimates are positive but small-sample, imprecise across the separately drawn samples, never significant, and attenuate under the region-preserving null. We therefore leave cross-document stability unresolved: the data is consistent with anything from situational grouping to a weak-to-moderate stable reader trait. The crowd is factional within a document; whether its factions follow the reader across documents is, honestly, beyond our reach.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences typically relies on external supervision, which faces critical limitations: human annotations are scarce and subjective, reward models are vulnerable to reward hacking, and self-evaluation methods suffer from prompt sensitivity and biases. In this work, we propose stable rank, an intrinsic, annotation-free quality signal derived from model representations. Stable rank measures the effective dimensionality of hidden states by computing the ratio of total variance to dominant-direction variance, capturing quality through how information distributes across representation dimensions. Empirically, stable rank achieves 84.04% accuracy on RewardBench and improves task accuracy by an average of 11.3 percentage points over greedy decoding via Best-of-N sampling. Leveraging this insight, we introduce Stable Rank Group Relative Policy Optimization (SR-GRPO), which uses stable rank as a reward signal for reinforcement learning. Without external supervision, SR-GRPO improves Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct by 10% on STEM and 19% on mathematical reasoning, outperforming both learned reward models and self-evaluation baselines. Our findings demonstrate that quality signals can be extracted from internal model geometry, offering a path toward scalable alignment without external supervision.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning technique that often suffers from training instability due to the diverse nature of client data. Although utility-based client selection methods like Oort are used to converge by prioritizing high-loss clients, they frequently experience significant drops in accuracy during later stages of training. We propose a theoretical HeteRo-Select framework designed to maintain high performance and ensure long-term training stability. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that when client data is very different (high heterogeneity), choosing a smart subset of client participation can reduce communication more effectively compared to full participation. Our HeteRo-Select method uses a clear, step-by-step scoring system that considers client usefulness, fairness, update speed, and data variety. It also shows convergence guarantees under strong regularization. Our experimental results on the CIFAR-10 dataset under significant label skew (α=0.1) support the theoretical findings. The HeteRo-Select method performs better than existing approaches in terms of peak accuracy, final accuracy, and training stability. Specifically, HeteRo-Select achieves a peak accuracy of 74.75%, a final accuracy of 72.76%, and a minimal stability drop of 1.99%. In contrast, Oort records a lower peak accuracy of 73.98%, a final accuracy of 71.25%, and a larger stability drop of 2.73%. The theoretical foundations and empirical performance in our study make HeteRo-Select a reliable solution for real-world heterogeneous FL problems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have witnessed remarkable advancements in recent years, prompting the exploration of tool learning, which integrates LLMs with external tools to address diverse real-world challenges. Assessing the capability of LLMs to utilise tools necessitates large-scale and stable benchmarks. However, previous works relied on either hand-crafted online tools with limited scale, or large-scale real online APIs suffering from instability of API status. To address this problem, we introduce StableToolBench, a benchmark evolving from ToolBench, proposing a virtual API server and stable evaluation system. The virtual API server contains a caching system and API simulators which are complementary to alleviate the change in API status. Meanwhile, the stable evaluation system designs solvable pass and win rates using GPT-4 as the automatic evaluator to eliminate the randomness during evaluation. Experimental results demonstrate the stability of StableToolBench, and further discuss the effectiveness of API simulators, the caching system, and the evaluator system.

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

The SYNTAX score has become a widely used measure of coronary disease severity , crucial in selecting the optimal mode of revascularization. This paper introduces a new medical regression and classification problem - automatically estimating SYNTAX score from coronary angiography. Our study presents a comprehensive dataset of 1,844 patients, featuring a balanced distribution of individuals with zero and non-zero scores. This dataset includes a first-of-its-kind, complete coronary angiography samples captured through a multi-view X-ray video, allowing one to observe coronary arteries from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, we present a novel, fully automatic end-to-end method for estimating the SYNTAX. For such a difficult task, we have achieved a solid coefficient of determination R2 of 0.51 in score predictions.

The robustness of neural networks to adversarial examples has received great attention due to security implications. Despite various attack approaches to crafting visually imperceptible adversarial examples, little has been developed towards a comprehensive measure of robustness. In this paper, we provide a theoretical justification for converting robustness analysis into a local Lipschitz constant estimation problem, and propose to use the Extreme Value Theory for efficient evaluation. Our analysis yields a novel robustness metric called CLEVER, which is short for Cross Lipschitz Extreme Value for nEtwork Robustness. The proposed CLEVER score is attack-agnostic and computationally feasible for large neural networks. Experimental results on various networks, including ResNet, Inception-v3 and MobileNet, show that (i) CLEVER is aligned with the robustness indication measured by the ell_2 and ell_infty norms of adversarial examples from powerful attacks, and (ii) defended networks using defensive distillation or bounded ReLU indeed achieve better CLEVER scores. To the best of our knowledge, CLEVER is the first attack-independent robustness metric that can be applied to any neural network classifier.

Evaluating whether text-to-image models follow explicit spatial instructions is difficult to automate. Object detectors may miss targets or return multiple plausible detections, and simple geometric tests can become ambiguous in borderline cases. Spatial evaluation is naturally a selective prediction problem, the checker may abstain when evidence is weak and report confidence so that results can be interpreted as a risk coverage tradeoff rather than a single score. We introduce SpatialBench-UC, a small, reproducible benchmark for pairwise spatial relations. The benchmark contains 200 prompts (50 object pairs times 4 relations) grouped into 100 counterfactual pairs obtained by swapping object roles. We release a benchmark package, versioned prompts, pinned configs, per-sample checker outputs, and report tables, enabling reproducible and auditable comparisons across models. We also include a lightweight human audit used to calibrate the checker's abstention margin and confidence threshold. We evaluate three baselines, Stable Diffusion 1.5, SD 1.5 BoxDiff, and SD 1.4 GLIGEN. The checker reports pass rate and coverage as well as conditional pass rates on decided samples. The results show that grounding methods substantially improve both pass rate and coverage, while abstention remains a dominant factor due mainly to missing detections.

Automated essay scoring (AES) involves predicting a score that reflects the writing quality of an essay. Most existing AES systems produce only a single overall score. However, users and L2 learners expect scores across different dimensions (e.g., vocabulary, grammar, coherence) for English essays in real-world applications. To address this need, we have developed two models that automatically score English essays across multiple dimensions by employing fine-tuning and other strategies on two large datasets. The results demonstrate that our systems achieve impressive performance in evaluation using three criteria: precision, F1 score, and Quadratic Weighted Kappa. Furthermore, our system outperforms existing methods in overall scoring.

Is the Text to Motion model robust? Recent advancements in Text to Motion models primarily stem from more accurate predictions of specific actions. However, the text modality typically relies solely on pre-trained Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) models. Our research has uncovered a significant issue with the text-to-motion model: its predictions often exhibit inconsistent outputs, resulting in vastly different or even incorrect poses when presented with semantically similar or identical text inputs. In this paper, we undertake an analysis to elucidate the underlying causes of this instability, establishing a clear link between the unpredictability of model outputs and the erratic attention patterns of the text encoder module. Consequently, we introduce a formal framework aimed at addressing this issue, which we term the Stable Text-to-Motion Framework (SATO). SATO consists of three modules, each dedicated to stable attention, stable prediction, and maintaining a balance between accuracy and robustness trade-off. We present a methodology for constructing an SATO that satisfies the stability of attention and prediction. To verify the stability of the model, we introduced a new textual synonym perturbation dataset based on HumanML3D and KIT-ML. Results show that SATO is significantly more stable against synonyms and other slight perturbations while keeping its high accuracy performance.

The validity screen (Cacioli, 2026d, 2026e) classifies LLM confidence signals as Valid, Indeterminate, or Invalid. We test whether these classifications predict selective prediction performance. Twenty frontier LLMs from seven families were evaluated on 524 items across six cognitive tracks. Valid models show mean Type 2 AUROC = .624 (SD = .048). Invalid models show mean AUROC = .357 (SD = .231). Cohen's d = 2.81, p = .002. The tiers order monotonically: Invalid (.357) < Indeterminate (.554) < Valid (.624). Split-half cross-validation yields median d = 1.77, P(d > 0) = 1.0 across 1,000 splits. The three-tier classification accounts for 47% of the variance in AUROC. DeepSeek-R1 drops from 85.3% accuracy at full coverage to 11.3% at 10% coverage. The screen predicts the criterion. For selective prediction, the screen matters.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

We present EBench, a simulation benchmark that diagnoses generalist mobile manipulation policies beyond a single success-rate scalar. EBench comprises 26 diverse and challenging manipulation tasks annotated along 5 capability dimensions and 4 generalization dimensions. We evaluate state-of-the-art generalist manipulation models including π_0, π_{0.5}, XVLA, and InternVLA-A1, and reveal that models with near success rates exhibit strikingly different capability profiles: π_{0.5} achieves the highest test success rate and the best train--test retention, whereas InternVLA-A1 dominates mobile manipulation but collapses on dexterous tasks, and XVLA exhibits strengths on a disjoint set of atomic skills compared to other policies. Beyond capability profiling, EBench analyzes the generalization ability from 4 representative perspectives, identifying the impact of different distribution shift factors. The results reveal strengths and weaknesses of models behind an overall score. We hope this benchmark offers a broad set of diagnostic signals to guide iteration on generalist manipulation models.

Recent work suggests that (stochastic) gradient descent self-organizes near an instability boundary, shaping both optimization and the solutions found. Momentum and mini-batch gradients are widely used in practical deep learning optimization, but it remains unclear whether they operate in a comparable regime of instability. We demonstrate that SGD with momentum exhibits an Edge of Stochastic Stability (EoSS)-like regime with batch-size-dependent behavior that cannot be explained by a single momentum-adjusted stability threshold. Batch Sharpness (the expected directional mini-batch curvature) stabilizes in two distinct regimes: at small batch sizes it converges to a lower plateau 2(1-β)/η, reflecting amplification of stochastic fluctuations by momentum and favoring flatter regions than vanilla SGD; at large batch sizes it converges to a higher plateau 2(1+β)/η, where momentum recovers its classical stabilizing effect and favors sharper regions consistent with full-batch dynamics. We further show that this aligns with linear stability thresholds and discuss the implications for hyperparameter tuning and coupling.

Clinical personality assessment screens response validity before interpreting substantive scales. LLM evaluation does not. We apply the validity scaling framework from the PAI and MMPI-3 to metacognitive probe data from 20 frontier models across 524 items. Six validity indices are operationalised: L (maintaining confidence on errors), K (betting on errors), F (withdrawing consensus-endorsed items), Fp (withdrawing correct answers), RBS (inverted monitoring), and TRIN (fixed responding). A tiered classification system identifies four models as construct-level invalid and two as elevated. Valid-profile models produce item-sensitive confidence (mean r = .18, 14 of 16 significant). Invalid-profile models do not (mean r = -.20, d = 2.17, p = .001). Chain-of-thought training produces two opposite response distortions. Two latent dimensions account for 94.6% of index variance. Companion papers extract a portable screening protocol (Cacioli, 2026e) and validate it against selective prediction (Cacioli, 2026f). All data and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/validity-scaling-llm

Representational similarity analysis and related methods compare the internal geometries of neural networks, but they measure only alignment between spaces, leaving a blind spot -- whether a representation's structure is reliably recoverable, not merely similar. We introduce geometric stability, a distinct axis, and Shesha, a metric that quantifies it from a single representation by correlating dissimilarity matrices built from complementary random halves of the feature dimensions. Unlike CKA and Procrustes distance, Shesha is provably non-invariant to orthogonal rotations of the feature basis. This is by design: the basis is privileged for learned models, since probes, patching, and steering act on coordinates, and a rotation-invariant metric cannot see whether the targeted structure survives them. A double dissociation isolates the mechanism -- removing the top principal component collapses CKA while Shesha holds, whereas rotating a representation into its eigenbasis, which preserves the spectrum and CKA exactly, collapses Shesha. Across 2,463 encoder configurations in seven domains, the metrics are redundant under geometry-preserving transforms and anti-correlate under compression (ρ=-0.47). Across 170 vision models spanning 6 clean and 38 corruption-shifted datasets, DINOv2 ranks first or second in transferability on three of six clean datasets yet bottom-quartile in stability on five, an isolated dissociation rather than a trade-off.

Mechanistic interpretability (MI) requires full access to model internals, yet the APIs for most widely deployed language models at best expose log-probabilities over output tokens. This creates a surrogate problem: when do measurements made on open models allow us to make claims about a closed model? We evaluate surrogate fidelity at the prediction, attribution, and representation levels. For binary classification tasks, log-odds provide an API-compatible scalar readout of the model's representation space, and leave-one-out attributions provide insight into model behavior. Across eleven models spanning four families (Llama, Qwen, GPT, and Gemini), we find that prediction fidelity substantially overstates attribution fidelity: models that agree on what the answer is often disagree on why. We document an access-validity inversion: white-box signals like attention patterns and perturbation magnitudes are highly stable across models but only weakly predictive of causal attributions, which black-box input ablations capture by design. Mechanistic insight does not automatically transfer to closed targets, and prediction-level agreement is insufficient to warrant such transfer. Code and results are available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/surrogate.

Reinforcement learning is structurally harder than supervised learning because the policy changes the data distribution it learns from. The resulting fragility is especially visible in large-model training, where the training and rollout systems differ in numerical precision, sampling, and other implementation details. Existing methods manage this fragility by adding hyper-parameters to the training objective, which makes the algorithm more sensitive to its configuration and requires retuning whenever the task, model scale, or distribution mismatch changes. This fragility traces to two concerns that current objectives entangle through hyper-parameters set before training begins: a trust-region concern, that updates should not move the policy too far from its current value, and an off-policy concern, that data from older or different behavior policies should influence the update only to the extent that it remains reliable. Neither concern is a constant to set in advance, and their severity is reflected in the policy-ratio distribution of the current batch. We present a simple yet effective batch-adaptive objective that replaces fixed clipping with the normalized effective sample size of the policy ratios. The same statistic caps the score-function weight and sets the strength of an off-policy regularizer, so the update stays close to the usual on-policy score-function update when ratios are nearly uniform, and tightens automatically when stale or mismatched data cause ratio concentration, while retaining a nonzero learning signal on high-ratio tokens. Experiments across a wide range of settings show that our method matches or exceeds tuned baselines, introducing no new objective hyper-parameters and removing several existing ones. The code is available at https://github.com/FeynRL-project/FeynRL.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

Reflecting the recent rise in Japanese basketball's competitiveness and pivotal outcomes in international tournaments, clutch-time performance has become increasingly critical. We examine clutch-time performance in Japan's B.League using play-by-play and box-score data from the 2023-24 season. Defining clutch time as the final five minutes with a score margin within five points, we compare efficiency and shot selection between clutch and non-clutch windows. We focus on effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) by spatial category, including In the Paint, Mid-Range, and 3-Point, and investigate league-wide and team-level trends. We further profile player archetypes in clutch minutes via K-means clustering on filtered box-score features. Results show that paint touches and clean three-point looks remain comparatively efficient under pressure, whereas mid-range outcomes are more context-dependent. Championship games exhibit tighter defense and scouting, moderating three-point accuracy for many teams. Our findings highlight the need for tactical flexibility, balancing efficient shot selection with adaptive counters to defensive pressure. We discuss strategic implications for late-game play-calling, spacing, and lineup choices, and outline limitations and future directions.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) has exhibited remarkable performance in conditional 3D content generation. However, a comprehensive understanding of the SDS formulation is still lacking, hindering the development of 3D generation. In this work, we present an interpretation of SDS as a combination of three functional components: mode-disengaging, mode-seeking and variance-reducing terms, and analyze the properties of each. We show that problems such as over-smoothness and color-saturation result from the intrinsic deficiency of the supervision terms and reveal that the variance-reducing term introduced by SDS is sub-optimal. Additionally, we shed light on the adoption of large Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) scale for 3D generation. Based on the analysis, we propose a simple yet effective approach named Stable Score Distillation (SSD) which strategically orchestrates each term for high-quality 3D generation. Extensive experiments validate the efficacy of our approach, demonstrating its ability to generate high-fidelity 3D content without succumbing to issues such as over-smoothness and over-saturation, even under low CFG conditions with the most challenging NeRF representation.

Agent benchmarks are growing fast, but no single benchmark touches more than four or five of the dimensions that deployment exposes. This paper aggregates the largest coordinated deep-dive of one MCP-based industrial-agent benchmark to date: fourteen parallel implementation studies covering new asset classes (including a multi-modal visual extension), alternative orchestrations, retrieval strategies, reasoning modes, infrastructure optimizations, and evaluation-methodology probes. Consolidating those studies with seven prior agent benchmarks, we argue that aggregate-score leaderboards systematically underspecify deployed-agent evaluation. Rankings derived from aggregate scores do not transfer to out-of-distribution settings; recent public-to-hidden competition retrospectives provide direct empirical evidence of this rank instability. We propose ranking configurations by predictive validity, the correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample rank, rather than in-sample mean, and report a twelve-tier measurement apparatus that exposes the deployment-relevant dimensions HELM and its agent-era successors collapse. The position is operationalized through three falsifiable out-of-distribution criteria with explicit thresholds; existing evidence partly supports it but is too thin to confirm. We close with a pre-registered pilot design and a field-level vision for what the next generation of agentic benchmarks should report.

Repository-level performance-optimization benchmarks such as GSO, SWE-Perf and SWE-fficiency evaluate coding agents by applying patches to real repositories and comparing runtime against unoptimized baselines and official reference patches. Their leaderboard scores are increasingly used as evidence of coding-agent progress, but those scores can conflate runtime instability, benchmark-specific scoring rules, and how many tasks are already solved by at least one public submission. We audit these issues across the three benchmarks. First, we replay the official reference patches for 740 code optimization tasks across four common types of Google Cloud machines. Most benchmark tasks can be replayed, but their reference patches satisfy the original benchmark validity rules in every cross-machine replay for only 39/102 GSO tasks, 11/140 SWE-Perf tasks, and 411/498 SWE-fficiency tasks; SWE-Perf is especially fragile because many reference patches produce close-to-zero runtime changes. Second, we show that public submission rankings depend strongly on the benchmark scoring rule. Among eight public submissions shared by GSO and SWE-fficiency, the official rankings disagree on 9 of 28 pairwise submission comparisons, and SWE-fficiency's leaderboard scoring rule assigns the worst ten tasks overly high score weights of 58.5%-82.8%. Third, looking across 10 public submissions for each task, we find that at least one submission matches or beats the reference patch on 85.3% (384/450) of replay-valid GSO and SWE-fficiency tasks, and beats the unoptimized base code on 99.8% (449/450). Our study complements leaderboard scores by identifying tasks with more reliable performance signals, quantifying per-task score contributions, and exposing the remaining performance gaps that are hidden by aggregate rankings.

Training instability remains a critical challenge in large language model (LLM) pretraining, often manifesting as sudden gradient explosions that waste significant computational resources. We study training failures in a 5M-parameter NanoGPT model scaled via μP, identifying two key phenomena preceding collapse: (1) rapid decline in weight matrix stable rank (ratio of squared Frobenius norm to squared spectral norm), and (2) increasing alignment between adjacent layer Jacobians. We prove theoretically that these two conditions jointly cause exponential gradient norm growth with network depth. To break this instability mechanism, we propose MSign, a new optimizer that periodically applies matrix sign operations to restore stable rank. Experiments on models from 5M to 3B parameters demonstrate that MSign effectively prevents training failures with a computational overhead of less than 7.0%.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable performance over finite datasets, yet whether the scores over the fixed benchmarks can sufficiently indicate the model's performance in the real world is still in discussion. In reality, an ideal robust model will probably behave similarly to the oracle (e.g., the human users), thus a good evaluation protocol is probably to evaluate the models' behaviors in comparison to the oracle. In this paper, we introduce a new robustness measurement that directly measures the image classification model's performance compared with a surrogate oracle (i.e., a foundation model). Besides, we design a simple method that can accomplish the evaluation beyond the scope of the benchmarks. Our method extends the image datasets with new samples that are sufficiently perturbed to be distinct from the ones in the original sets, but are still bounded within the same image-label structure the original test image represents, constrained by a foundation model pretrained with a large amount of samples. As a result, our new method will offer us a new way to evaluate the models' robustness performance, free of limitations of fixed benchmarks or constrained perturbations, although scoped by the power of the oracle. In addition to the evaluation results, we also leverage our generated data to understand the behaviors of the model and our new evaluation strategies.

Medical reasoning models (MRMs) achieve superior performance on medical benchmarks compared to medical LLMs; however, high accuracy alone is insufficient for practical deployment. One of such requirements for real-world application is robustness to varying output constraints. Specifically, posing the same medical question while requesting different answer formats should not affect the underlying correctness of the response. We investigate this phenomenon in this paper, focusing on MRMs. To quantify this behavior, we propose the metric answer-format robustness: the ability to reliably generate correct outputs across varying specified formats. We examine three representative formats: multiple-choice, open-ended question-answering, and ranked lists. Across 15 proprietary and open-weight models, we observe substantial variation in format robustness (35-100%). Furthermore, we conduct controlled fine-tuning experiments on a shared backbone with matched training data to isolate the effects of the fine-tuning paradigm. We find that supervised fine-tuning yields more stable behavior across formats, whereas reinforcement fine-tuning often exhibits higher cross-format brittleness, with the degree of instability strongly dependent on reward design. Overall, answer-format robustness in MRMs is trainable yet brittle and requires careful evaluation for practical medical use.

Large language models have revolutionized natural language processing, yet their deployment remains hampered by the substantial memory and runtime overhead of the transformer's Key-Value cache. To mitigate this, recent methods employ a scoring-aggregation framework to evict unimportant cache entries, based on the stability assumption-that a fixed subset of entries remains consistently important during generation. However, prior work has largely focused on refining importance indicators for scoring, while defaulting to mean aggregation due to a faithful trust in the stability assumption. In this work, we argue that this underlying assumption is inherently fragile, making mean aggregation highly vulnerable in extreme cases. To counter this, we propose a simple yet elegant defensive aggregation strategy: a two-step, linear-time approach that controls worst-case risk, thereby defending against extreme cases with negligible computational overhead. Embodying this strategy, we propose a novel cache eviction method, DefensiveKV and its extension, Layer-DefensiveKV, which incorporates layer-wise budget allocation. Across seven task domains (18 datasets), our methods reduce generation quality loss by 2.3x and 4.3x respectively, versus the strongest baseline under a 20% cache size. These results set new performance benchmarks and pioneer a promising direction for optimizing cache eviction against underlying fragility through worst-case risk management. Our code is available at https://github.com/FFY0/DefensiveKV.

Mathematical reasoning models are widely deployed in education, automated tutoring, and decision support systems despite exhibiting fundamental computational instabilities. We demonstrate that state-of-the-art models (Qwen2.5-Math-7B) achieve 61% accuracy through a mixture of reliable and unreliable reasoning pathways: 18.4% of correct predictions employ stable, faithful reasoning while 81.6% emerge through computationally inconsistent pathways. Additionally, 8.8% of all predictions are silent failures -- confident yet incorrect outputs. Through comprehensive analysis using novel faithfulness metrics, we reveal: (1) reasoning quality shows weak negative correlation with correctness (r=-0.21, p=0.002), reflecting a binary classification threshold artifact rather than a monotonic inverse relationship; (2) scaling from 1.5B to 7B parameters (4.7x increase) provides zero accuracy benefit on our evaluated subset (6% of GSM8K), requiring validation on the complete benchmark; and (3) latent reasoning employs diverse computational strategies, with ~20% sharing CoT-like patterns. These findings highlight that benchmark accuracy can mask computational unreliability, demanding evaluation reforms measuring stability beyond single-sample metrics.

Neural networks excel as function approximators, but their complexity often obscures the types of functions they learn, making it difficult to explain their behavior. To address this, the linearity score lambda(f) is introduced, a simple and interpretable diagnostic that quantifies how well a regression network's output can be mimicked by a linear model. Defined as the R^2 value between the network's predictions and those of a trained linear surrogate, lambda(f) measures linear decodability: the extent to which the network's behavior aligns with a structurally simple model. This framework is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets, using dataset-specific networks and surrogates. High lambda(f) scores reliably indicate alignment with the network's outputs; however, they do not guarantee accuracy with respect to the ground truth. These results highlight the risk of using surrogate fidelity as a proxy for model understanding, especially in high-stakes regression tasks.

Adversarial attacks have been a looming and unaddressed threat in the industry. However, through a decade-long history of the robustness evaluation literature, we have learned that mounting a strong or optimal attack is challenging. It requires both machine learning and domain expertise. In other words, the white-box threat model, religiously assumed by a large majority of the past literature, is unrealistic. In this paper, we propose a new practical threat model where the adversary relies on transfer attacks through publicly available surrogate models. We argue that this setting will become the most prevalent for security-sensitive applications in the future. We evaluate the transfer attacks in this setting and propose a specialized defense method based on a game-theoretic perspective. The defenses are evaluated under 24 public models and 11 attack algorithms across three datasets (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet). Under this threat model, our defense, PubDef, outperforms the state-of-the-art white-box adversarial training by a large margin with almost no loss in the normal accuracy. For instance, on ImageNet, our defense achieves 62% accuracy under the strongest transfer attack vs only 36% of the best adversarially trained model. Its accuracy when not under attack is only 2% lower than that of an undefended model (78% vs 80%). We release our code at https://github.com/wagner-group/pubdef.

Purpose: Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have expanded their capabilities in a multimodal fashion, potentially replicating the image interpretation of human radiologists. This study aimed to develop open-source multimodal large language model for interpreting chest X-ray images (CXR-LLaVA). We also examined the effect of prompt engineering and model parameters such as temperature and nucleus sampling. Materials and Methods: For training, we collected 659,287 publicly available CXRs: 417,336 CXRs had labels for certain radiographic abnormalities (dataset 1); 241,951 CXRs provided free-text radiology reports (dataset 2). After pre-training the Resnet50 as an image encoder, the contrastive language-image pre-training was used to align CXRs and corresponding radiographic abnormalities. Then, the Large Language Model Meta AI-2 was fine-tuned using dataset 2, which were refined using GPT-4, with generating various question answering scenarios. The code can be found at https://github.com/ECOFRI/CXR_LLaVA. Results: In the test set, we observed that the model's performance fluctuated based on its parameters. On average, it achieved F1 score of 0.34 for five pathologic findings (atelectasis, cardiomegaly, consolidation, edema, and pleural effusion), which was improved to 0.46 through prompt engineering. In the independent set, the model achieved an average F1 score of 0.30 for the same pathologic findings. Notably, for the pediatric chest radiograph dataset, which was unseen during training, the model differentiated abnormal radiographs with an F1 score ranging from 0.84 to 0.85. Conclusion: CXR-LLaVA demonstrates promising potential in CXR interpretation. Both prompt engineering and model parameter adjustments can play pivotal roles in interpreting CXRs.

High-dimensional datasets require effective feature selection to improve predictive performance, interpretability, and robustness. We propose and evaluate feature selection methods for tabular datasets based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs), which parameterize feature transformations through splines, enabling direct access to interpretable importance measures. We introduce four KAN-based selectors (KAN-L1, KAN-L2, KAN-SI, KAN-KO) and compare them against classical baselines (LASSO, Random Forest, Mutual Information, SVM-RFE) across multiple classification and regression tabular dataset benchmarks. Average (over three retention levels: 20\%, 40\%, and 60\%) F1 scores and R^2 score results reveal that KAN-based selectors, particularly KAN-L2, KAN-L1, KAN-SI, and KAN-KO, are competitive with and sometimes superior to classical baselines in structured and synthetic datasets. However, KAN-L1 is often too aggressive in regression, removing useful features, while KAN-L2 underperforms in classification, where simple coefficient shrinkage misses complex feature interactions. KAN-L2 and KAN-SI provide robust performance on noisy regression datasets and heterogeneous datasets, aligning closely with ensemble predictors. In classification tasks, KAN selectors such as KAN-L1, KAN-KO, and KAN-SI sometimes surpass the other selectors by eliminating redundancy, particularly in high-dimensional multi-class data. Overall, our findings demonstrate that KAN-based feature selection provides a powerful and interpretable alternative to traditional methods, capable of uncovering nonlinear and multivariate feature relevance beyond sparsity or impurity-based measures.

Current models of representational reliability in neural populations focus on temporal stability: whether population centroids are preserved across sessions and days. This framing leaves a fundamental question unanswered: how reliably does the pairwise distance structure among stimuli reproduce across independent observations within a session? We argue that this property, geometric stability, constitutes an independent axis of representational analysis that existing frameworks do not capture. We formalize geometric stability as the Spearman rank correlation between split-half representational dissimilarity matrices (Shesha) and show that it is empirically dissociable from both temporal stability and decoding accuracy. Across 229 area-session observations spanning 68 brain regions in a visual discrimination task (Steinmetz et al. 2019), geometric stability predicts trial-by-trial neural-behavioral coupling (ρ= 0.18, p = 0.005) while centroid drift does not (ρ= 0.002, p = 0.976). The regional hierarchy, with striatum most stable (S = 0.44) and hippocampus least (S = 0.19), runs roughly opposite to the temporal stability hierarchy. Directionally consistent olfactory data (Bolding \& Franks 2018) motivate an attractor network model in which recurrent excitatory coupling amplifies split-half RDM consistency by completing stimulus patterns from sparse feedforward input (ρ= +0.64, p = 0.010), providing a circuit-level account of how geometric stability emerges. These results establish geometric stability as a functionally relevant, circuit-dependent property of neural population codes, orthogonal to temporal drift measures and complementary to recent accounts of how recurrent connectivity balances representational stability with sequential dynamics in hippocampal circuits.

We consider the problem of subset selection where one is given multiple rankings of items and the goal is to select the highest ``quality'' subset. Score functions from the multiwinner voting literature have been used to aggregate rankings into quality scores for subsets. We study this setting of subset selection problems when, in addition, rankings may contain systemic or unconscious biases toward a group of items. For a general model of input rankings and biases, we show that requiring the selected subset to satisfy group fairness constraints can improve the quality of the selection with respect to unbiased rankings. Importantly, we show that for fairness constraints to be effective, different multiwinner score functions may require a drastically different number of rankings: While for some functions, fairness constraints need an exponential number of rankings to recover a close-to-optimal solution, for others, this dependency is only polynomial. This result relies on a novel notion of ``smoothness'' of submodular functions in this setting that quantifies how well a function can ``correctly'' assess the quality of items in the presence of bias. The results in this paper can be used to guide the choice of multiwinner score functions for the subset selection setting considered here; we additionally provide a tool to empirically enable this.

Foundation models rely on large-scale web-crawled datasets, which frequently contain noisy data, biases, and irrelevant content. Existing data selection techniques typically use human heuristics, downstream evaluation datasets, or specialized scoring models, and can overlook samples' utility in the training process. Instead, we propose a new approach, Mimic Score, a data quality metric that uses a pretrained reference model as a guide to assess the usefulness of data samples for training a new model. It relies on the alignment between the gradient of the new model parameters and the vector pointing toward the reference model in weight space. Samples that misalign with this direction are considered low-value and can be filtered out. Motivated by the Mimic score, we develop Grad-Mimic, a data selection framework that identifies and prioritizes useful samples, automating the selection process to create effective filters. Empirically, using Mimic scores to guide model training results in consistent performance gains across six image datasets and enhances the performance of CLIP models. Moreover, Mimic scores and their associated filters improve upon existing filtering methods and offer accurate estimation of dataset quality.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is a widely adopted parameter-efficient method for fine-tuning Large Langauge Models. It updates the weight matrix as W=W_0+sBA, where W_0 is the original frozen weight, s is a scaling factor and A,B are trainable low-rank matrices. Despite its robust empirical effectiveness, the theoretical foundations of LoRA remain insufficiently understood, particularly with respect to feature learning stability. In this paper, we first establish that, LoRA can, in principle, naturally achieve and sustain stable feature learning (i.e., be self-stabilized) under appropriate hyper-parameters and initializations of A and B. However, we also uncover a fundamental limitation that the necessary non-zero initialization of A compromises self-stability, leading to suboptimal performances. To address this challenge, we propose Stable-LoRA, a weight-shrinkage optimization strategy that dynamically enhances stability of LoRA feature learning. By progressively shrinking A during the earliest training steps, Stable-LoRA is both theoretically and empirically validated to effectively eliminate instability of LoRA feature learning while preserving the benefits of the non-zero start. Experiments show that Stable-LoRA consistently outperforms other baselines across diverse models and tasks, with no additional memory usage and only negligible computation overheads. The code is available at https://github.com/Yize-Wu/Stable-LoRA.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) has shown to be effective at tackling distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model on test samples. However, the online model updating of TTA may be unstable and this is often a key obstacle preventing existing TTA methods from being deployed in the real world. Specifically, TTA may fail to improve or even harm the model performance when test data have: 1) mixed distribution shifts, 2) small batch sizes, and 3) online imbalanced label distribution shifts, which are quite common in practice. In this paper, we investigate the unstable reasons and find that the batch norm layer is a crucial factor hindering TTA stability. Conversely, TTA can perform more stably with batch-agnostic norm layers, \ie, group or layer norm. However, we observe that TTA with group and layer norms does not always succeed and still suffers many failure cases. By digging into the failure cases, we find that certain noisy test samples with large gradients may disturb the model adaption and result in collapsed trivial solutions, \ie, assigning the same class label for all samples. To address the above collapse issue, we propose a sharpness-aware and reliable entropy minimization method, called SAR, for further stabilizing TTA from two aspects: 1) remove partial noisy samples with large gradients, 2) encourage model weights to go to a flat minimum so that the model is robust to the remaining noisy samples. Promising results demonstrate that SAR performs more stably over prior methods and is computationally efficient under the above wild test scenarios.

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

Existing Score Distillation Sampling (SDS)-based methods have driven significant progress in text-to-3D generation. However, 3D models produced by SDS-based methods tend to exhibit over-smoothing and low-quality outputs. These issues arise from the mode-seeking behavior of current methods, where the scores used to update the model oscillate between multiple modes, resulting in unstable optimization and diminished output quality. To address this problem, we introduce a novel image prompt score distillation loss named ISD, which employs a reference image to direct text-to-3D optimization toward a specific mode. Our ISD loss can be implemented by using IP-Adapter, a lightweight adapter for integrating image prompt capability to a text-to-image diffusion model, as a mode-selection module. A variant of this adapter, when not being prompted by a reference image, can serve as an efficient control variate to reduce variance in score estimates, thereby enhancing both output quality and optimization stability. Our experiments demonstrate that the ISD loss consistently achieves visually coherent, high-quality outputs and improves optimization speed compared to prior text-to-3D methods, as demonstrated through both qualitative and quantitative evaluations on the T3Bench benchmark suite.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

We identify first-mover bias -- path-dependent concentration of SHAP feature importance from sequential residual fitting in gradient boosting -- as a mechanistic contributor to attribution instability under multicollinearity. Scaling up a single model amplifies this effect: a Large Single Model matching our method's total tree count produces the poorest attribution reproducibility of any approach tested. We show that model independence largely neutralizes first-mover bias. Both DASH (Diversified Aggregation of SHAP) and simple seed-averaging (Stochastic Retrain) restore stability by breaking the sequential dependency chain. At rho=0.9, both achieve stability ~0.977, while Single Best degrades to 0.958 and LSM to 0.938. On Breast Cancer, DASH improves stability from 0.376 to 0.925 (+0.549), outperforming Stochastic Retrain by +0.063. Under nonlinear DGPs, the advantage emerges at rho>=0.7. DASH provides two diagnostic tools -- the Feature Stability Index and Importance-Stability Plot -- that detect first-mover bias without ground truth. A crossed ANOVA with formal F-statistics confirms the mechanism: DASH shifts variance from model-dominated (40.6%) to data-dominated (73.6%). Software at https://github.com/DrakeCaraker/dash-shap

Quantized checkpoints are often screened first with quality metrics and only later, if at all, with direct safety tests. This paper audits that shortcut on a matched 51-row matrix spanning 6 models, 4 families, a 7-level GGUF ladder, and AWQ/GPTQ INT4 checkpoints. In this matrix the shortcut fails: all 36 quality-safety pairings split direction across models, and 9 hidden-danger rows plus 1 near-hidden-danger row show quality stable or improved while refusal falls by 12-68 percentage points. Seven of the 11 AWQ/GPTQ rows are hidden-danger. A four-probe mechanistic follow-up over the 17 Hugging Face-backed FP16/AWQ/GPTQ cells does not rescue it: entropy, refusal-direction, and calibration probes are weak or null separators of dangerous rows, and although probe-identified safety-associated neurons absorb 1.39times more quantization error overall (p < 5 times 10^{-7}), the effect is not regime-specific. Claude Sonnet 4 relabels 11,470 items in a predefined stratified set, agrees with the primary gemma3:12b judge on 89.9\% of rows (κ= 0.873, 95\% CI [0.866, 0.881]), and changes 0/10 hidden-danger cells. A calibrated study-internal behavioral screen -- the Refusal Template Stability Index (RTSI), built from four refusal-template drift features and calibrated on this matrix -- routes 10/10 hidden- or near-hidden-danger rows to direct safety testing (Wilson 95\% CI lower bound 0.72) while leaving 23 of 45 non-baseline rows in a low-risk bucket under both in-sample scoring and row-level leave-one-out validation; on the same matrix, the best single-feature baselines (unique-prefix-rate-delta, raw refusal-rate delta) recover 9/10 and 8/10 respectively at matched bucket size, and cross-stack transfer requires recalibration. For the quantized checkpoints, model families, and safety outcomes studied here, retained quality cannot waive direct safety evaluation.

Many deployments must compare candidate language models for safety before a labeled benchmark exists for the relevant language, sector, or regulatory regime. We formalize this setting as benchmarkless comparative safety scoring and specify the contract under which a scenario-based audit can be interpreted as deployment evidence. Scores are valid only under a fixed scenario pack, rubric, auditor, judge, sampling configuration, and rerun budget. Because no labels are available, we replace ground-truth agreement with an instrumental-validity chain: responsiveness to a controlled safe-versus-abliterated contrast, dominance of target-driven variance over auditor and judge artifacts, and stability across reruns. We instantiate the chain in SimpleAudit, a local-first scoring instrument, and validate it on a Norwegian safety pack. Safe and abliterated targets separate with AUROC values between 0.89 and 1.00, target identity is the dominant variance component (η^2 approx 0.52), and severity profiles stabilize by ten reruns. Applying the same chain to Petri shows that it admits both tools. The substantial differences arise upstream of the chain, in claim-contract enforcement and deployment fit. A Norwegian public-sector procurement case comparing Borealis and Gemma 3 demonstrates the resulting evidence in practice: the safer model depends on scenario category and risk measure. Consequently, scores, matched deltas, critical rates, uncertainty, and the auditor and judge used must be reported together rather than collapsed into a single ranking.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves language-model reasoning, but GRPO-style optimization remains prone to collapse. We analyse this instability through token-level gradient dynamics, deriving a taxonomy that predicts how updates affect next-token probabilities and entropy. The taxonomy shows that stability depends jointly on the advantage sign and token distribution under the current policy. Motivated by this finding, we propose Winner Advantage Policy Optimization (WAPO), a simple online clipped policy-gradient objective that updates only on positive-advantage completions. Across mathematical reasoning and multi-hop QA benchmarks, WAPO improves training stability and matches or outperforms baselines across multiple model families. Full code can be found at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/wapo.

Identifying cirrhosis is key to correctly assess the health of the liver. However, the gold standard diagnosis of the cirrhosis needs a medical intervention to obtain the histological confirmation, e.g. the METAVIR score, as the radiological presentation can be equivocal. In this work, we propose to leverage transfer learning from large datasets annotated by radiologists, which we consider as a weak annotation, to predict the histological score available on a small annex dataset. To this end, we propose to compare different pretraining methods, namely weakly-supervised and self-supervised ones, to improve the prediction of the cirrhosis. Finally, we introduce a loss function combining both supervised and self-supervised frameworks for pretraining. This method outperforms the baseline classification of the METAVIR score, reaching an AUC of 0.84 and a balanced accuracy of 0.75, compared to 0.77 and 0.72 for a baseline classifier.

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy adjusted correctness correlation, ϕ_{adj}, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's ρ=0.84 and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration (ρ=0.51 on GPQA Diamond and 0.84 on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with R^2ge 0.96 throughout. Raw ϕ has almost no predictive power (R^2le 0.09 throughout); the accuracy-adjusted ϕ_{adj} is markedly superior (R^2=0.67 on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre pooling predictor across the three datasets.

Most 3D object generators focus on aesthetic quality, often neglecting physical constraints necessary in applications. One such constraint is that the 3D object should be self-supporting, i.e., remains balanced under gravity. Prior approaches to generating stable 3D objects used differentiable physics simulators to optimize geometry at test-time, which is slow, unstable, and prone to local optima. Inspired by the literature on aligning generative models to external feedback, we propose Direct Simulation Optimization (DSO), a framework to use the feedback from a (non-differentiable) simulator to increase the likelihood that the 3D generator outputs stable 3D objects directly. We construct a dataset of 3D objects labeled with a stability score obtained from the physics simulator. We can then fine-tune the 3D generator using the stability score as the alignment metric, via direct preference optimization (DPO) or direct reward optimization (DRO), a novel objective, which we introduce, to align diffusion models without requiring pairwise preferences. Our experiments show that the fine-tuned feed-forward generator, using either DPO or DRO objective, is much faster and more likely to produce stable objects than test-time optimization. Notably, the DSO framework works even without any ground-truth 3D objects for training, allowing the 3D generator to self-improve by automatically collecting simulation feedback on its own outputs.

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become a key paradigm to improve the reasoning capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). However, prevalent group-based algorithms such as GRPO require multi-rollout sampling for each prompt. While more efficient single-rollout variants have recently been explored in text-only settings, we find that they suffer from severe instability in multimodal contexts, often leading to training collapse. To address this training efficiency-stability trade-off, we introduce MSSR (Multimodal Stabilized Single-Rollout), a group-free RLVR framework that achieves both stable optimization and effective multimodal reasoning performance. MSSR achieves this via an entropy-based advantage-shaping mechanism that adaptively regularizes advantage magnitudes, preventing collapse and maintaining training stability. While such mechanisms have been used in group-based RLVR, we show that in the multimodal single-rollout setting they are not merely beneficial but essential for stability. In in-distribution evaluations, MSSR demonstrates superior training compute efficiency, achieving similar validation accuracy to the group-based baseline with half the training steps. When trained for the same number of steps, MSSR's performance surpasses the group-based baseline and shows consistent generalization improvements across five diverse reasoning-intensive benchmarks. Together, these results demonstrate that MSSR enables stable, compute-efficient, and effective RLVR for complex multimodal reasoning tasks.

A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release. But do we need to run every eval? We compile a public score matrix of 84 frontier models on 133 benchmarks (2,604 cells, 23.3% filled) and find it is approximately rank-2: a model's scores across all 133 benchmarks are largely determined by just two numbers. We confirm this in two ways: scores hidden from the matrix are best recovered using two factors, and two factors already explain over 90% of the variation among models on the benchmarks they share. Building on this, we design BenchPress: a logit-space rank-2 matrix completion method that recovers held-out scores to within 4.6 points, and a confidence layer that says when each prediction can be trusted. Using BenchPress, we find a subset of five benchmarks {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} that can recover the rest of a model's public scorecard to within 3.93 points. For a tighter inference budget, a cheaper set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} can predict a model's evals to within 4.55. We release the score matrix, the BenchPress code, and an interactive tool that predicts any model's score on any benchmark.

We address the challenge of adapting pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for multivariate time-series analysis, where their deployment is often hindered by prohibitive computational and memory demands. Our solution, One-for-All, introduces Gaussian Rank-Stabilized Low-Rank Adapters (rsLoRA) to enable parameter-efficient fine-tuning of frozen LLMs. While inspired by LoRA, rsLoRA introduces a mathematically grounded rank-stabilization mechanism that enables provable gradient stability at low ranks a novel contribution absent in prior PEFT methods. Our framework injects trainable rank decomposition matrices (rank 16) into positional embeddings and output layers, while keeping self-attention weights fixed. This design reduces trainable parameters by 6.8times (vs. TimesNet), 21times (vs. GPT4TS), and 11.8times (vs. TIME-LLM), while achieving a 168-1,776times smaller memory footprint (2.2MiB vs. 340MiB-4.18GiB in SOTA models). Rigorous evaluation across six time-series tasks demonstrates that One-for-All achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-accuracy trade-offs: 5.5times higher parameter efficiency (MSE=5.50) than TimesNet and 21times better than GPT4TS, while matching their forecasting accuracy (MSE=0.33). The framework's stability is validated through consistent performance across diverse horizons (96-720 steps) and datasets (ETT, Weather, M3, M4), with 98.3% fewer parameters than conventional transformers. These advances enable deployment on edge devices for healthcare, finance, and environmental monitoring without compromising performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing, yet aligning these models with human values and preferences using RLHF remains a significant challenge. This challenge is characterized by various instabilities, such as reward hacking and catastrophic forgetting. In this technical report, we propose two innovations to stabilize RLHF training: 1) Advantage Model, which directly models advantage score i.e., extra reward compared to the expected rewards and regulates score distributions across tasks to prevent reward hacking. 2) Selective Rehearsal, which mitigates catastrophic forgetting by strategically selecting data for PPO training and knowledge rehearsing. Our experimental analysis on public and proprietary datasets reveals that the proposed methods not only increase stability in RLHF training but also achieve higher reward scores and win rates.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

In the field of eXplainable AI (XAI), robust "blackbox" algorithms such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are known for making high prediction performance. However, the ability to explain and interpret these algorithms still require innovation in the understanding of influential and, more importantly, explainable features that directly or indirectly impact the performance of predictivity. A number of methods existing in literature focus on visualization techniques but the concepts of explainability and interpretability still require rigorous definition. In view of the above needs, this paper proposes an interaction-based methodology -- Influence Score (I-score) -- to screen out the noisy and non-informative variables in the images hence it nourishes an environment with explainable and interpretable features that are directly associated to feature predictivity. We apply the proposed method on a real world application in Pneumonia Chest X-ray Image data set and produced state-of-the-art results. We demonstrate how to apply the proposed approach for more general big data problems by improving the explainability and interpretability without sacrificing the prediction performance. The contribution of this paper opens a novel angle that moves the community closer to the future pipelines of XAI problems.

Genome engineering has achieved sequence-level precision, yet predicting the transcriptomic state a cell will occupy after perturbation remains open. Single-cell CRISPR screens measure how far cells move, but effect magnitude ignores whether the cells move together. We introduce Shesha perturbation stability (S_p), which quantifies directional coherence as the mean cosine similarity between individual cell shift vectors and the mean perturbation direction. Across five CRISPR datasets (2,200+ perturbations), stability correlates with magnitude (Spearman ρ= 0.75--0.97), but discordant cases expose regulatory architecture: pleiotropic regulators such as CEBPA pay a ``geometric tax,'' producing large but incoherent shifts, while lineage-specific factors such as KLF1 produce coordinated responses. S_p and Song et al.'s perturbation-response score (PS) share partial overlap (ρ_{partial} = +0.51 after controlling for magnitude), but S_p provides significant incremental prediction of UPR pathway activation beyond both PS and magnitude (p < 10^{-18}). In a split-half reproducibility assay, S_p predicts directional reproducibility beyond magnitude (ρ_{partial} = +0.384) while PS does not (ρ_{partial} = -0.193), with the advantage consistent across all magnitude strata and both datasets. Geometric instability is independently associated with UPR activation across four datasets. S_p is implemented in the open-source shesha-geometry Python package.

Knowledge benchmarks for LLMs face three issues: scaling-driven designs that do not operationalize disciplinary representativeness; flat-payment annotation that permits lazy consensus; and unaudited ranking instability under bounded test budgets. We introduce KINA, an 899-item benchmark across 261 fine-grained disciplines, with two formal results. First, we cast representativeness as a coverage-style objective over expert-elicited anchors and operationalize disciplinary representativeness through a proxy, yielding a (1-1/e) greedy approximation (Proposition 1); the guarantee applies to the proxy, not to population representativeness. Second, we prove a bonus-on-bar tournament weakly FOSD-dominates flat payment in released-review quality, with incentive-compatibility threshold B > Delta C / Delta p_min (Theorem 1). Evaluating 42 models from 13 labs, the top model, Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview, reaches 53.17%, followed by Claude-Opus-4.6 at 49.92% and GPT-5.4 at 48.55%, leaving substantial headroom below saturation. The full leaderboard shows a tiered structure rather than a smooth total order: a small frontier tier lies above 48%, a dense strong-model tier spans roughly 38-45%, and low-performing models remain only modestly above the 10% chance baseline. Tool augmentation adds up to 5.17 points across the five tool-use evaluations, with gains varying substantially across models. We report bootstrap ranking-stability statistics to make bounded-budget variance explicit and to discourage over-interpretation of adjacent ranks.

Point-adjustment (PA), for years the default scoring protocol in time-series anomaly detection (TSAD), was shown by Kim et al. (2022) to award near-perfect F1 to random anomaly scores. The field adopted a suite of replacement metrics (PA%K, range-based precision/recall, affiliation precision/recall, and Volume-Under-the-Surface, VUS, ROC/PR). We ask, independently and adversarially, whether these resist no-skill detectors on real benchmarks, and find the answer turns entirely on one overlooked variable: N, the number of random attempts an adversary reports the best of. Under a single honest run (N=1), not one replacement metric is gameable on any of six benchmarks (UCR, SMD, SMAP, MSL, NAB, PSM): a random detector reaches 90% of the best real detector's score on at most 11% of series for affiliation-F1, 5% for the ROC family, and 2% for the PR-based metrics and PA%K. But under best-of-N reporting, the seed-shopping endemic to ML, the metrics split sharply. affiliation-F1 and every ROC-based metric inflate steeply, affiliation crossing gameable (25% of series) by N=3 and reaching 0.98 at the full pool (N=41), the ROC family crossing by N=9-11; the PR-based metrics and PA%K stay near-flat at every N, floored near the anomaly prevalence (the lone exception is NAB at large N). A paired test finds VUS-ROC inflated on 131 series where its sibling VUS-PR is not, and never the reverse. The ROC-vs-PR split follows from the order-statistic behaviour of AUC under extreme class imbalance (a random PR-AUC is floored at prevalence); affiliation inflates by a second route, its extreme single-run leniency (already fragile at N=1). We release a pip-installable stress-test harness, and recommend reporting single-run scores or disclosing N and preferring PR-based metrics, which resist best-of-N inflation on nearly every benchmark.

Safety benchmark scores provide incomplete evidence of deployment readiness: aligned language models often adhere to rigid rules even when a situational update flips which action is safe. We term this failure brittle safety. To diagnose it, we introduce context-flip evaluation, testing 12 models across a safety benchmark (PacifAIst) and two commonsense controls using paired variants where the nominally safe action produces harm. Three findings emerge. First, brittle safety is safety-specific: all 12 models exhibit a safety-commonsense gap (mean +17.4 pp). Baseline accuracy fails to predict brittleness: among models above 90% baseline accuracy, brittleness rates range from 13.7% to 90.0%. Second, failures stem from policy override rather than miscomprehension: despite acknowledging the context change in every case, models persist via three distinct mechanisms that vary by update type and model family. Third, on a hand-audited probe of catastrophic consequence-flip scenarios, standard action-level guardrails catch none, while a state-aware validator catches all without false alarms on correct interventions. This indicates that action-level content moderation is systematically blind to consequence-flips, motivating state-aware architectural alternatives. We release our protocol, perturbed benchmarks, and deployment probe.

Robustness is often regarded as a critical future challenge for real-world applications, where stability is essential. However, as models often learn tasks in a similar order, we hypothesize that easier tasks will be easier regardless of how they are presented to the model. Indeed, in this paper, we show that as models approach high performance on a task, robustness is effectively achieved. Through an empirical analysis of multiple models across diverse datasets and configurations (e.g., paraphrases, different temperatures), we find a strong positive correlation. Moreover, we find that robustness is primarily driven by task-specific competence rather than inherent model-level properties, challenging current approaches that treat robustness as an independent capability. Thus, from a high-level perspective, we may expect that as new tasks saturate, model robustness on these tasks will emerge accordingly. For researchers, this implies that explicit efforts to measure and improve robustness may warrant reduced emphasis, as such robustness is likely to develop alongside performance gains. For practitioners, it acts as a sign that indeed the tasks that the literature deals with are unreliable, but on easier past tasks, the models are reliable and ready for real-world deployment.

As a research community, we are still lacking a systematic understanding of the progress on adversarial robustness which often makes it hard to identify the most promising ideas in training robust models. A key challenge in benchmarking robustness is that its evaluation is often error-prone leading to robustness overestimation. Our goal is to establish a standardized benchmark of adversarial robustness, which as accurately as possible reflects the robustness of the considered models within a reasonable computational budget. To this end, we start by considering the image classification task and introduce restrictions (possibly loosened in the future) on the allowed models. We evaluate adversarial robustness with AutoAttack, an ensemble of white- and black-box attacks, which was recently shown in a large-scale study to improve almost all robustness evaluations compared to the original publications. To prevent overadaptation of new defenses to AutoAttack, we welcome external evaluations based on adaptive attacks, especially where AutoAttack flags a potential overestimation of robustness. Our leaderboard, hosted at https://robustbench.github.io/, contains evaluations of 120+ models and aims at reflecting the current state of the art in image classification on a set of well-defined tasks in ell_infty- and ell_2-threat models and on common corruptions, with possible extensions in the future. Additionally, we open-source the library https://github.com/RobustBench/robustbench that provides unified access to 80+ robust models to facilitate their downstream applications. Finally, based on the collected models, we analyze the impact of robustness on the performance on distribution shifts, calibration, out-of-distribution detection, fairness, privacy leakage, smoothness, and transferability.

The rapid release of both language models and benchmarks makes it increasingly costly to evaluate every model on every dataset. In practice, models are often evaluated on different samples, making scores difficult to compare across studies. To address this, we propose a framework based on multidimensional Item Response Theory (IRT) that uses anchor items to calibrate new benchmarks to the evaluation suite while holding previously calibrated item parameters fixed. Our approach supports a realistic evaluation setting in which datasets are introduced over time and models are evaluated only on the datasets available at the time of evaluation, while a fixed anchor set for each dataset is used so that results from different evaluation periods can be compared directly. In large-scale experiments on more than 400 models, our framework predicts full-evaluation performance within 2-3 percentage points using only 100 anchor questions per dataset, with Spearman ρgeq 0.9 for ranking preservation, showing that it is possible to extend benchmark suites over time while preserving score comparability, at a constant evaluation cost per new dataset. Code available at https://github.com/eliyahabba/growing-pains

We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Features for prediction were created from only common vital sign measurements. We show significant improvement of AUC score using neural network based ensemble model compared to single ML and rule-based models. For the detection of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, our model achieves an AUC of 0.97, 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Four hours before the positive hours, it predicts the same three categories with an AUC of 0.90, 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Further, we ranked the features and found that using six vital signs consistently provides higher detection and prediction AUC for all the models tested. Our novel ensemble model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in the MIMIC-III ICU patients, and is amenable to deployment in hospital settings.

In this work we design an end-to-end deep learning architecture for predicting, on Chest X-rays images (CXR), a multi-regional score conveying the degree of lung compromise in COVID-19 patients. Such semi-quantitative scoring system, namely Brixia~score, is applied in serial monitoring of such patients, showing significant prognostic value, in one of the hospitals that experienced one of the highest pandemic peaks in Italy. To solve such a challenging visual task, we adopt a weakly supervised learning strategy structured to handle different tasks (segmentation, spatial alignment, and score estimation) trained with a "from-the-part-to-the-whole" procedure involving different datasets. In particular, we exploit a clinical dataset of almost 5,000 CXR annotated images collected in the same hospital. Our BS-Net demonstrates self-attentive behavior and a high degree of accuracy in all processing stages. Through inter-rater agreement tests and a gold standard comparison, we show that our solution outperforms single human annotators in rating accuracy and consistency, thus supporting the possibility of using this tool in contexts of computer-assisted monitoring. Highly resolved (super-pixel level) explainability maps are also generated, with an original technique, to visually help the understanding of the network activity on the lung areas. We also consider other scores proposed in literature and provide a comparison with a recently proposed non-specific approach. We eventually test the performance robustness of our model on an assorted public COVID-19 dataset, for which we also provide Brixia~score annotations, observing good direct generalization and fine-tuning capabilities that highlight the portability of BS-Net in other clinical settings. The CXR dataset along with the source code and the trained model are publicly released for research purposes.

Recent advancements, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), have enhanced the reasoning capabilities of large language models by optimizing the arithmetic mean of token-level rewards. However, GRPO suffers from unstable policy updates when processing tokens with outlier importance-weighted rewards, which manifests as extreme importance sampling ratios during training, i.e., the ratio between the sampling probabilities assigned to a token by the current and old policies. In this work, we propose Geometric-Mean Policy Optimization (GMPO), a stabilized variant of GRPO. Instead of optimizing the arithmetic mean, GMPO maximizes the geometric mean of token-level rewards, which is inherently less sensitive to outliers and maintains a more stable range of importance sampling ratio. In addition, we provide comprehensive theoretical and experimental analysis to justify the design and stability benefits of GMPO. Beyond improved stability, GMPO-7B outperforms GRPO by an average of 4.1% on multiple mathematical benchmarks and 1.4% on multimodal reasoning benchmark, including AIME24, AMC, MATH500, OlympiadBench, Minerva, and Geometry3K. Code is available at https://github.com/callsys/GMPO.

Large language models are increasingly deployed as automated judges for evaluating other models, yet the stability of their verdicts under semantically equivalent prompt paraphrases remains unmeasured. We introduce JudgeSense, a framework and benchmark for quantifying this property via the Judge Sensitivity Score (JSS), defined as the fraction of paraphrase pairs on which a judge returns an identical decision. Evaluating nine judge models on 494 validated paraphrase pairs, we find that coherence is the only task where judges meaningfully differ, with JSS ranging from 0.389 to 0.992. On factuality, all judges cluster near JSS about 0.63, driven by a polarity-inverted prompt artifact; after correction, factuality JSS rises to about 0.9. Pairwise tasks (preference and relevance) exhibit degenerate always-A behavior in 8 of 9 judges, indicating strong position bias. Model scale does not predict consistency. We release code, decision logs, and a validated paraphrase dataset to support standardized JSS reporting.

Training large-scale machine learning models poses distinct system challenges, given both the size and complexity of today's workloads. Recently, many organizations training state-of-the-art Generative AI models have reported cases of instability during training, often taking the form of loss spikes. Numeric deviation has emerged as a potential cause of this training instability, although quantifying this is especially challenging given the costly nature of training runs. In this work, we develop a principled approach to understanding the effects of numeric deviation, and construct proxies to put observations into context when downstream effects are difficult to quantify. As a case study, we apply this framework to analyze the widely-adopted Flash Attention optimization. We find that Flash Attention sees roughly an order of magnitude more numeric deviation as compared to Baseline Attention at BF16 when measured during an isolated forward pass. We then use a data-driven analysis based on the Wasserstein Distance to provide upper bounds on how this numeric deviation impacts model weights during training, finding that the numerical deviation present in Flash Attention is 2-5 times less significant than low-precision training.

Aggregate metacognitive quality scores mask within-model variation across MMLU benchmark domains. We administered 1,500 MMLU items (250 per domain, under an a priori six-domain grouping) to 33 frontier LLMs from eight model families and computed Type-2 AUROC per model-domain cell using verbalized confidence (0-100). Total observations: 47,151. Every model with above-chance aggregate monitoring showed non-trivial domain-level variation. Applied/Professional knowledge was reliably the easiest benchmark domain to monitor (mean AUROC = .742, ranked top-2 in 21 of 33 models); Formal Reasoning and Natural Science were reliably the hardest (one of the two ranked bottom-2 in 27 of 33 models). The three middle domains were statistically indistinguishable (Kendall's W = .164). A subject-level coherence analysis (within-domain similarity ratio = 0.95) confirms the six-domain grouping is a pragmatic benchmark taxonomy, not a validated latent construct. Within-family profile-shape clustering is significant for Anthropic, Google-Gemini, and Qwen (permutation p < .0001) but not DeepSeek, Google-Gemma, or OpenAI. Gemma 4 31B showed a +.202 AUROC improvement over Gemma 3 27B. Three models classified Invalid on binary KEEP/WITHDRAW probes produced normal profiles under verbalized confidence, confirming probe-format specificity. Bootstrap 95% CIs on 198 cells have median width .199. Split-half aggregate stability r = .893; profile-level split-half is weaker (grand median r = .184). These results show stable benchmark-domain variation obscured by aggregate metrics, and support benchmark-stage domain screening as a step before deployment in specific application areas.

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly given the recent rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have narrow domain coverage or overlook important real-world settings, such as tasks with covariates. Additionally, their aggregation procedures often lack statistical rigor, making it unclear whether observed performance differences reflect true improvements or random variation. Many benchmarks also fail to provide infrastructure for consistent evaluation or are too rigid to integrate into existing pipelines. To address these gaps, we propose fev-bench, a benchmark comprising 100 forecasting tasks across seven domains, including 46 tasks with covariates. Supporting the benchmark, we introduce fev, a lightweight Python library for benchmarking forecasting models that emphasizes reproducibility and seamless integration with existing workflows. Usingfev, fev-bench employs principled aggregation methods with bootstrapped confidence intervals to report model performance along two complementary dimensions: win rates and skill scores. We report results on fev-bench for various pretrained, statistical and baseline models, and identify promising directions for future research.

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. sim40.2%to56.6%), validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

By leveraging the text-to-image diffusion priors, score distillation can synthesize 3D contents without paired text-3D training data. Instead of spending hours of online optimization per text prompt, recent studies have been focused on learning a text-to-3D generative network for amortizing multiple text-3D relations, which can synthesize 3D contents in seconds. However, existing score distillation methods are hard to scale up to a large amount of text prompts due to the difficulties in aligning pretrained diffusion prior with the distribution of rendered images from various text prompts. Current state-of-the-arts such as Variational Score Distillation finetune the pretrained diffusion model to minimize the noise prediction error so as to align the distributions, which are however unstable to train and will impair the model's comprehension capability to numerous text prompts. Based on the observation that the diffusion models tend to have lower noise prediction errors at earlier timesteps, we propose Asynchronous Score Distillation (ASD), which minimizes the noise prediction error by shifting the diffusion timestep to earlier ones. ASD is stable to train and can scale up to 100k prompts. It reduces the noise prediction error without changing the weights of pre-trained diffusion model, thus keeping its strong comprehension capability to prompts. We conduct extensive experiments across different 2D diffusion models, including Stable Diffusion and MVDream, and text-to-3D generators, including Hyper-iNGP, 3DConv-Net and Triplane-Transformer. The results demonstrate ASD's effectiveness in stable 3D generator training, high-quality 3D content synthesis, and its superior prompt-consistency, especially under large prompt corpus.

Foundation Models (FMs) have improved time series forecasting in various sectors, such as finance, but their vulnerability to input disturbances can hinder their adoption by stakeholders, such as investors and analysts. To address this, we propose a causally grounded rating framework to study the robustness of Foundational Models for Time Series (FMTS) with respect to input perturbations. We evaluate our approach to the stock price prediction problem, a well-studied problem with easily accessible public data, evaluating six state-of-the-art (some multi-modal) FMTS across six prominent stocks spanning three industries. The ratings proposed by our framework effectively assess the robustness of FMTS and also offer actionable insights for model selection and deployment. Within the scope of our study, we find that (1) multi-modal FMTS exhibit better robustness and accuracy compared to their uni-modal versions and, (2) FMTS pre-trained on time series forecasting task exhibit better robustness and forecasting accuracy compared to general-purpose FMTS pre-trained across diverse settings. Further, to validate our framework's usability, we conduct a user study showcasing FMTS prediction errors along with our computed ratings. The study confirmed that our ratings reduced the difficulty for users in comparing the robustness of different systems.

A key component of understanding hand-object interactions is the ability to identify the active object -- the object that is being manipulated by the human hand. In order to accurately localize the active object, any method must reason using information encoded by each image pixel, such as whether it belongs to the hand, the object, or the background. To leverage each pixel as evidence to determine the bounding box of the active object, we propose a pixel-wise voting function. Our pixel-wise voting function takes an initial bounding box as input and produces an improved bounding box of the active object as output. The voting function is designed so that each pixel inside of the input bounding box votes for an improved bounding box, and the box with the majority vote is selected as the output. We call the collection of bounding boxes generated inside of the voting function, the Relational Box Field, as it characterizes a field of bounding boxes defined in relationship to the current bounding box. While our voting function is able to improve the bounding box of the active object, one round of voting is typically not enough to accurately localize the active object. Therefore, we repeatedly apply the voting function to sequentially improve the location of the bounding box. However, since it is known that repeatedly applying a one-step predictor (i.e., auto-regressive processing with our voting function) can cause a data distribution shift, we mitigate this issue using reinforcement learning (RL). We adopt standard RL to learn the voting function parameters and show that it provides a meaningful improvement over a standard supervised learning approach. We perform experiments on two large-scale datasets: 100DOH and MECCANO, improving AP50 performance by 8% and 30%, respectively, over the state of the art.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

Current studies on adversarial robustness mainly focus on aggregating local robustness results from a set of data samples to evaluate and rank different models. However, the local statistics may not well represent the true global robustness of the underlying unknown data distribution. To address this challenge, this paper makes the first attempt to present a new framework, called GREAT Score , for global robustness evaluation of adversarial perturbation using generative models. Formally, GREAT Score carries the physical meaning of a global statistic capturing a mean certified attack-proof perturbation level over all samples drawn from a generative model. For finite-sample evaluation, we also derive a probabilistic guarantee on the sample complexity and the difference between the sample mean and the true mean. GREAT Score has several advantages: (1) Robustness evaluations using GREAT Score are efficient and scalable to large models, by sparing the need of running adversarial attacks. In particular, we show high correlation and significantly reduced computation cost of GREAT Score when compared to the attack-based model ranking on RobustBench (Croce,et. al. 2021). (2) The use of generative models facilitates the approximation of the unknown data distribution. In our ablation study with different generative adversarial networks (GANs), we observe consistency between global robustness evaluation and the quality of GANs. (3) GREAT Score can be used for remote auditing of privacy-sensitive black-box models, as demonstrated by our robustness evaluation on several online facial recognition services.

Recent success in deep learning has partially been driven by training increasingly overparametrized networks on ever larger datasets. It is therefore natural to ask: how much of the data is superfluous, which examples are important for generalization, and how do we find them? In this work, we make the striking observation that, in standard vision datasets, simple scores averaged over several weight initializations can be used to identify important examples very early in training. We propose two such scores -- the Gradient Normed (GraNd) and the Error L2-Norm (EL2N) scores -- and demonstrate their efficacy on a range of architectures and datasets by pruning significant fractions of training data without sacrificing test accuracy. In fact, using EL2N scores calculated a few epochs into training, we can prune half of the CIFAR10 training set while slightly improving test accuracy. Furthermore, for a given dataset, EL2N scores from one architecture or hyperparameter configuration generalize to other configurations. Compared to recent work that prunes data by discarding examples that are rarely forgotten over the course of training, our scores use only local information early in training. We also use our scores to detect noisy examples and study training dynamics through the lens of important examples -- we investigate how the data distribution shapes the loss surface and identify subspaces of the model's data representation that are relatively stable over training.

With the rapidly increasing demand for oriented object detection, e.g. in autonomous driving and remote sensing, the recently proposed paradigm involving weakly-supervised detector H2RBox for learning rotated box (RBox) from the more readily-available horizontal box (HBox) has shown promise. This paper presents H2RBox-v2, to further bridge the gap between HBox-supervised and RBox-supervised oriented object detection. Specifically, we propose to leverage the reflection symmetry via flip and rotate consistencies, using a weakly-supervised network branch similar to H2RBox, together with a novel self-supervised branch that learns orientations from the symmetry inherent in visual objects. The detector is further stabilized and enhanced by practical techniques to cope with peripheral issues e.g. angular periodicity. To our best knowledge, H2RBox-v2 is the first symmetry-aware self-supervised paradigm for oriented object detection. In particular, our method shows less susceptibility to low-quality annotation and insufficient training data compared to H2RBox. Specifically, H2RBox-v2 achieves very close performance to a rotation annotation trained counterpart -- Rotated FCOS: 1) DOTA-v1.0/1.5/2.0: 72.31%/64.76%/50.33% vs. 72.44%/64.53%/51.77%; 2) HRSC: 89.66% vs. 88.99%; 3) FAIR1M: 42.27% vs. 41.25%.

We study KV cache eviction under a shared globally capped decode-time harness. Seven policies (LRU, H2O, SnapKV, StreamingLLM, Ada-KV, QUEST, Random) share a prompt-boundary vulnerability: without structural protection, they collapse to near-zero quality on six pure-transformer models (F1leq0.064). Reserving 10\% of cache at each boundary recovers 69--90\% of the C{=}2{,}048 reference-ceiling quality on seven LongBench models at C{=}256 (13\% retention); a ten-model panel spans 68--98\%. An attention-mass pilot (Qwen2.5-3B, N{=}30) suggests why: the position-0 sink holds {sim}75% of prefix mass, while other boundary tokens sit near {sim}0.41{times} uniform expectation, so attention scorers retain the sink but still drop structurally critical tokens. With protection, simplified score-isolation variants are TOST-equivalent to LRU at K{=}32 (Δ{=}0.02); at K{=}8, attention policies pairwise converge yet beat LRU by 0.011--0.021 F1 across C{=}256 and C{=}512. Faithful Ada-KV/QUEST add {sim}0.03--0.04 F1 on Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5 beyond simplified variants. A NIAH-32K regime-transfer pilot on Qwen3-4B (decode vs.\ prefill, C{in}{512,2048}) shows near-identical protection lifts (ratio 0.99--1.00). At 64K, protection helps but recovery is modest; faithful per-head scoring matches full-cache ceiling on Gemma-3-4B at 6.3\% retention only when the model already supports strong 64K retrieval without eviction. Overall: protection dominates; scoring differences are secondary once boundaries are guarded; per-head allocation gives a further modest gain.

In this position paper, we argue that human baselines in foundation model evaluations must be more rigorous and more transparent to enable meaningful comparisons of human vs. AI performance, and we provide recommendations and a reporting checklist towards this end. Human performance baselines are vital for the machine learning community, downstream users, and policymakers to interpret AI evaluations. Models are often claimed to achieve "super-human" performance, but existing baselining methods are neither sufficiently rigorous nor sufficiently well-documented to robustly measure and assess performance differences. Based on a meta-review of the measurement theory and AI evaluation literatures, we derive a framework with recommendations for designing, executing, and reporting human baselines. We synthesize our recommendations into a checklist that we use to systematically review 115 human baselines (studies) in foundation model evaluations and thus identify shortcomings in existing baselining methods; our checklist can also assist researchers in conducting human baselines and reporting results. We hope our work can advance more rigorous AI evaluation practices that can better serve both the research community and policymakers. Data is available at: https://github.com/kevinlwei/human-baselines

While text-to-image models like DALLE-3 and Stable Diffusion are rapidly proliferating, they often encounter challenges such as hallucination, bias, and the production of unsafe, low-quality output. To effectively address these issues, it is crucial to align these models with desired behaviors based on feedback from a multimodal judge. Despite their significance, current multimodal judges frequently undergo inadequate evaluation of their capabilities and limitations, potentially leading to misalignment and unsafe fine-tuning outcomes. To address this issue, we introduce MJ-Bench, a novel benchmark which incorporates a comprehensive preference dataset to evaluate multimodal judges in providing feedback for image generation models across four key perspectives: alignment, safety, image quality, and bias. Specifically, we evaluate a large variety of multimodal judges including smaller-sized CLIP-based scoring models, open-source VLMs (e.g. LLaVA family), and close-source VLMs (e.g. GPT-4o, Claude 3) on each decomposed subcategory of our preference dataset. Experiments reveal that close-source VLMs generally provide better feedback, with GPT-4o outperforming other judges in average. Compared with open-source VLMs, smaller-sized scoring models can provide better feedback regarding text-image alignment and image quality, while VLMs provide more accurate feedback regarding safety and generation bias due to their stronger reasoning capabilities. Further studies in feedback scale reveal that VLM judges can generally provide more accurate and stable feedback in natural language (Likert-scale) than numerical scales. Notably, human evaluations on end-to-end fine-tuned models using separate feedback from these multimodal judges provide similar conclusions, further confirming the effectiveness of MJ-Bench. All data, code, models are available at https://huggingface.co/MJ-Bench.

Comprehensive and constructive evaluation protocols play an important role in the development of sophisticated text-to-video (T2V) generation models. Existing evaluation protocols primarily focus on temporal consistency and content continuity, yet largely ignore the dynamics of video content. Dynamics are an essential dimension for measuring the visual vividness and the honesty of video content to text prompts. In this study, we propose an effective evaluation protocol, termed DEVIL, which centers on the dynamics dimension to evaluate T2V models. For this purpose, we establish a new benchmark comprising text prompts that fully reflect multiple dynamics grades, and define a set of dynamics scores corresponding to various temporal granularities to comprehensively evaluate the dynamics of each generated video. Based on the new benchmark and the dynamics scores, we assess T2V models with the design of three metrics: dynamics range, dynamics controllability, and dynamics-based quality. Experiments show that DEVIL achieves a Pearson correlation exceeding 90% with human ratings, demonstrating its potential to advance T2V generation models. Code is available at https://github.com/MingXiangL/DEVIL.

As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications, evaluating their vulnerabilities to adversarial perturbations is essential for ensuring their reliability and trustworthiness. Over the past decade, a large number of white-box adversarial robustness evaluation methods (i.e., attacks) have been proposed, ranging from single-step to multi-step methods and from individual to ensemble methods. Despite these advances, challenges remain in conducting meaningful and comprehensive robustness evaluations, particularly when it comes to large-scale testing and ensuring evaluations reflect real-world adversarial risks. In this work, we focus on image classification models and propose a novel individual attack method, Probability Margin Attack (PMA), which defines the adversarial margin in the probability space rather than the logits space. We analyze the relationship between PMA and existing cross-entropy or logits-margin-based attacks, and show that PMA can outperform the current state-of-the-art individual methods. Building on PMA, we propose two types of ensemble attacks that balance effectiveness and efficiency. Furthermore, we create a million-scale dataset, CC1M, derived from the existing CC3M dataset, and use it to conduct the first million-scale white-box adversarial robustness evaluation of adversarially-trained ImageNet models. Our findings provide valuable insights into the robustness gaps between individual versus ensemble attacks and small-scale versus million-scale evaluations.

Modern recommender systems may output considerably different recommendations due to small perturbations in the training data. Changes in the data from a single user will alter the recommendations as well as the recommendations of other users. In applications like healthcare, housing, and finance, this sensitivity can have adverse effects on user experience. We propose a method to stabilize a given recommender system against such perturbations. This is a challenging task due to (1) the lack of a ``reference'' rank list that can be used to anchor the outputs; and (2) the computational challenges in ensuring the stability of rank lists with respect to all possible perturbations of training data. Our method, FINEST, overcomes these challenges by obtaining reference rank lists from a given recommendation model and then fine-tuning the model under simulated perturbation scenarios with rank-preserving regularization on sampled items. Our experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that FINEST can ensure that recommender models output stable recommendations under a wide range of different perturbations without compromising next-item prediction accuracy.

Language-model agents are increasingly used as persistent coworkers that assist users across multiple working days. During such workflows, the surrounding environment may change independently of the agent: new emails arrive, calendar entries shift, knowledge-base records are updated, and evidence appears across images, scanned PDFs, audio, video, and spreadsheets. Existing benchmarks do not adequately evaluate this setting because they typically run within a single static episode and remain largely text-centric. We introduce , a benchmark for coworker agents built around multi-turn multi-day tasks, a stateful sandboxed service environment whose state evolves between turns, and rule-based verification. The current release contains 100 tasks across 13 professional scenarios, executed against five stateful sandboxed services (filesystem, email, calendar, knowledge base, spreadsheet) and scored by 1537 deterministic Python checkers over post-execution service state; no LLM-as-judge is invoked during scoring. We benchmark seven frontier agent systems. The strongest model reaches 75.8 weighted score, but the best strict Task Success is only 20.0\%, indicating that partial progress is common while complete end-to-end workflow completion remains rare. Turn-level analysis shows that performance drops after the first exogenous environment update, highlighting adaptation to changing state as a key open challenge. We release the benchmark, evaluation harness, and construction pipeline to support reproducible coworker-agent evaluation.

How do multi-turn reasoning systems fail? The expected answer is logical contradiction, in which the system's maintained state becomes unsatisfiable. We show that the dominant mode is instead satisfiable drift, where the internal state stays consistent while the returned answer silently violates prior commitments. We build DRIFT-Bench (Decomposing Reasoning Into Failure Types), a solver-instrumented benchmark of 816 test problems across three constraint domains, and evaluate four methods on it across four open-weight models (8B-120B parameters). MUS-Repair, which feeds minimal unsatisfiable subsets back to the generator, is strongest in every setting (+1.8 to +15.0 pp over the best non-MUS baseline). But the central finding is what repair leaves behind. After structured feedback, models rarely contradict themselves. They forget. Residual errors are 98-100% satisfiable drift across all settings, while contradiction drops to near zero. Reliable multi-turn systems must separately validate that the returned answer respects the maintained state. Code is available at https://github.com/kaons-research/drift-bench.

Accurately ranking the vast number of candidate detections is crucial for dense object detectors to achieve high performance. Prior work uses the classification score or a combination of classification and predicted localization scores to rank candidates. However, neither option results in a reliable ranking, thus degrading detection performance. In this paper, we propose to learn an Iou-aware Classification Score (IACS) as a joint representation of object presence confidence and localization accuracy. We show that dense object detectors can achieve a more accurate ranking of candidate detections based on the IACS. We design a new loss function, named Varifocal Loss, to train a dense object detector to predict the IACS, and propose a new star-shaped bounding box feature representation for IACS prediction and bounding box refinement. Combining these two new components and a bounding box refinement branch, we build an IoU-aware dense object detector based on the FCOS+ATSS architecture, that we call VarifocalNet or VFNet for short. Extensive experiments on MS COCO show that our VFNet consistently surpasses the strong baseline by sim2.0 AP with different backbones. Our best model VFNet-X-1200 with Res2Net-101-DCN achieves a single-model single-scale AP of 55.1 on COCO test-dev, which is state-of-the-art among various object detectors.Code is available at https://github.com/hyz-xmaster/VarifocalNet .