Daily Papers

AI agents equipped with tool-calling capabilities are susceptible to Indirect Prompt Injection (IPI) attacks. In this attack scenario, malicious commands hidden within untrusted content trick the agent into performing unauthorized actions. Existing defenses can reduce attack success but often suffer from the over-defense dilemma: they deploy expensive, always-on sanitization regardless of actual threat, thereby degrading utility and latency even in benign scenarios. We revisit IPI through a causal ablation perspective: a successful injection manifests as a dominance shift where the user request no longer provides decisive support for the agent's privileged action, while a particular untrusted segment, such as a retrieved document or tool output, provides disproportionate attributable influence. Based on this signature, we propose CausalArmor, a selective defense framework that (i) computes lightweight, leave-one-out ablation-based attributions at privileged decision points, and (ii) triggers targeted sanitization only when an untrusted segment dominates the user intent. Additionally, CausalArmor employs retroactive Chain-of-Thought masking to prevent the agent from acting on ``poisoned'' reasoning traces. We present a theoretical analysis showing that sanitization based on attribution margins conditionally yields an exponentially small upper bound on the probability of selecting malicious actions. Experiments on AgentDojo and DoomArena demonstrate that CausalArmor matches the security of aggressive defenses while improving explainability and preserving utility and latency of AI agents.

Large language models in regulated financial workflows are governed by natural-language policies that the same model interprets, creating a principal--agent failure: outputs can appear compliant without being compliant. Existing evaluation measures task accuracy but not whether governance constrains behaviour at the decision rationale level -- where regulated decisions must be auditable. We introduce five governance metrics that quantify policy compliance at the rationale level and apply them in a synthetic banking domain to compare text-only governance against mechanical enforcement: four primitives operating outside the model's interpretive loop. Under text-only governance, 27% of deferrals carry no decision-relevant information. Mechanical enforcement reduces this rate by 73%, more than doubles deferral information content, and raises task accuracy from MCC~0.43 to 0.88. The improvement is driven by architectural separation: LLM-generated rationales under mechanical enforcement show comparable CDL to text-only governance -- the gain comes from removing clear-cut decisions from the model's control. A causal ablation confirms that each primitive is individually necessary. Our central finding is a governance-task decoupling: under structural stress, text-only governance degrades on both dimensions simultaneously, whereas mechanical enforcement preserves governance quality even as task performance drops. This implies that governance and task evaluation are distinct axes: accuracy is not a sufficient proxy for governance in regulated AI systems.

Exam-style accuracy does not establish whether large language models (LLMs) reason well over clinical records. We define clinical reasoning as integrating and updating evidence across time and sources to form, revise and justify a patient's problem representation and a defensible plan. This structured narrative review maps three literatures: medical education assessment instruments, clinical LLM benchmarks published from 2023 onwards, and general-domain methods for evaluating long-form generation. We examine six dimensions: problem representation, temporal synthesis, differential and management reasoning, counterfactual reasoning, calibrated uncertainty, and reasoning faithfulness. Preprints are included and flagged. No single instrument covers all six dimensions. Problem representation and differential or management reasoning are reasonably covered, although reliability varies by instrument and setting. TIMER-Eval targets temporal synthesis, and ER-Reason assesses sequential diagnostic belief updating. Dedicated uncertainty and counterfactual evaluations are emerging, but their applicability to longitudinal free-text reasoning remains limited. Factual completeness is well theorised in general-domain evaluation, with early clinical evidence of important omissions. Faithfulness remains the weakest dimension, with one identified clinical causal-ablation study on multiple-choice questions. Existing tools should be combined through binary rubric items, separate completeness and correctness scores, case-specific importance weighting with non-compensable safety caps, temporal order-consistency checks, and chance-corrected reliability reporting. Further design work is needed for calibrated uncertainty, counterfactual reasoning and faithfulness over longitudinal free-text records. This review provides a design rationale, not a validated instrument.

Graph Transformers (GTs) have emerged as powerful architectures for graph-structured data, yet remain constrained by rigid designs and lack quantifiable interpretability. Current state-of-the-art GTs commit to fixed GNN types across all layers, missing potential benefits of depth-specific component selection, while their complex architectures become opaque where performance gains cannot be distinguished between meaningful patterns and spurious correlations. We redesign GT attention through asymmetry, decoupling structural encoding from feature representation: queries derive from node features while keys and values come from GNN transformations. Within this framework, we use Differentiable ARchiTecture Search (DARTS) to select optimal GNN operators at each layer, enabling depth-wise heterogeneity inside transformer attention itself (DARTS-GT). To understand discovered architectures, we develop the first quantitative interpretability framework for GTs through causal ablation. Our metrics (Head-deviation, Specialization, and Focus), identify which heads and nodes drive predictions while enabling model comparison. Experiments across eight benchmarks show DARTS-GT achieves state-of-the-art on four datasets while remaining competitive on others, with discovered architectures revealing dataset-specific patterns. Our interpretability analysis reveals that visual attention salience and causal importance do not always correlate, indicating widely used visualization approaches may miss components that actually matter. Crucially, heterogeneous architectures found by DARTS-GT consistently produced more interpretable models than baselines, establishing that Graph Transformers need not choose between performance and interpretability.

Mechanistic interpretability research on emotion in large language models -- linear probing, activation patching, sparse autoencoder (SAE) feature analysis, causal ablation, steering vector extraction -- depends on stimuli that contain the words for the emotions they test. When a probe fires on "I am furious", it is unclear whether the model has detected anger or detected the word "furious". The two readings have very different consequences for every downstream claim about emotion circuits, features, and interventions. We release AIPsy-Affect, a 480-item clinical stimulus battery that removes the confound at the stimulus level: 192 keyword-free vignettes evoking each of Plutchik's eight primary emotions through narrative situation alone, 192 matched neutral controls that share characters, setting, length, and surface structure with the affect surgically removed, plus moderate-intensity and discriminant-validity splits. The matched-pair structure supports linear probing, activation patching, SAE feature analysis, causal ablation, and steering vector extraction under a strong methodological guarantee: any internal representation that distinguishes a clinical item from its matched neutral cannot be doing so on the basis of emotion-keyword presence. A three-method NLP defense battery -- bag-of-words sentiment, an emotion-category lexicon, and a contextual transformer classifier -- confirms the property: bag-of-words methods see only situational vocabulary, and a contextual classifier detects affect (p < 10^-15) but cannot identify the category (5.2% top-1 vs. 82.5% on a keyword-rich control). AIPsy-Affect extends our earlier 96-item battery (arXiv:2603.22295) by a factor of four and is released openly under MIT license.

Evaluating whether large vision-language models (VLMs) align with human perception for high-level semantic scene comprehension remains a challenge. Traditional white-box interpretability methods are inapplicable to closed-source architectures and passive metrics fail to isolate causal features. We introduce Counterfactual Semantic Saliency (CSS). This black-box, model-agnostic framework quantifies the importance of objects by measuring the semantic shift induced by their causal ablation from a scene. To evaluate AI-human semantic alignment, we tested prominent VLMs against a human psychophysics baseline comprising 16,289 valid responses across 307 complex natural scenes and 1,306 high-fidelity counterfactual variants. Our analysis reveals a pervasive scene comprehension gap: models exhibit an overreliance (relative to humans) on large objects (size bias), objects at the center of the image (center bias), and high saliency objects. In contrast, models rely less on people in the scenes than our human participants to describe the images. A model's size bias is a primary driver explaining variations in model-human semantic divergence. Code and data will be available at https://github.com/starsky77/Counterfactual-Semantic-Saliency.

A pervasive intuition holds that vision-language models (VLMs) are most trustworthy when their attention maps look sharp: concentrated attention on the queried region should imply a confident, calibrated answer. We test this Attention-Confidence Assumption directly. We instrument three open-weight VLM families (LLaVA-1.5, PaliGemma, Qwen2-VL; 3-7B parameters) with a unified mechanistic pipeline -- the VLM Reliability Probe (VRP) -- that compares attention structure, generation dynamics, and hidden-state geometry against a single correctness label. Three results emerge. (i) Attention structure is a near-zero predictor of correctness (R_pb(C_k,y)=0.001, 95% CI [-0.034,0.036]; R_pb(H_s,y)=-0.012, [-0.047,0.024] on a pooled n=3,090 split), even though attention remains causally necessary for feature extraction (top-30% patch masking drops accuracy by 8.2-11.3 pp, p<0.001). (ii) Reliability becomes legible later in the computation: a single hidden-state linear probe reaches AUROC>0.95 on POPE for two of three families, and self-consistency at K=10 is the strongest behavioral predictor we measure at 10x inference cost (R_pb=0.43). (iii) Causal neuron-level ablations expose a sharp architectural split with direct monitor-design implications: late-fusion LLaVA concentrates reliability in a fragile late bottleneck (-8.3 pp object-identification accuracy after top-5 probe-neuron ablation), whereas early-fusion PaliGemma and Qwen2-VL distribute it widely and absorb destruction of ~50% of their peak-layer hidden dimension with <=1 pp degradation. The takeaway is narrow but consequential: in 3-7B VLMs, reliability is read more reliably off hidden-state geometry, layer-wise margin formation, and sparse late-layer circuits than off attention-map sharpness.

We present causal head gating (CHG), a scalable method for interpreting the functional roles of attention heads in transformer models. CHG learns soft gates over heads and assigns them a causal taxonomy - facilitating, interfering, or irrelevant - based on their impact on task performance. Unlike prior approaches in mechanistic interpretability, which are hypothesis-driven and require prompt templates or target labels, CHG applies directly to any dataset using standard next-token prediction. We evaluate CHG across multiple large language models (LLMs) in the Llama 3 model family and diverse tasks, including syntax, commonsense, and mathematical reasoning, and show that CHG scores yield causal, not merely correlational, insight validated via ablation and causal mediation analyses. We also introduce contrastive CHG, a variant that isolates sub-circuits for specific task components. Our findings reveal that LLMs contain multiple sparse task-sufficient sub-circuits, that individual head roles depend on interactions with others (low modularity), and that instruction following and in-context learning rely on separable mechanisms.

As the demand for emotional intelligence in large language models (LLMs) grows, a key challenge lies in understanding the internal mechanisms that give rise to emotional expression and in controlling emotions in generated text. This study addresses three core questions: (1) Do LLMs contain context-agnostic mechanisms shaping emotional expression? (2) What form do these mechanisms take? (3) Can they be harnessed for universal emotion control? We first construct a controlled dataset, SEV (Scenario-Event with Valence), to elicit comparable internal states across emotions. Subsequently, we extract context-agnostic emotion directions that reveal consistent, cross-context encoding of emotion (Q1). We identify neurons and attention heads that locally implement emotional computation through analytical decomposition and causal analysis, and validate their causal roles via ablation and enhancement interventions. Next, we quantify each sublayer's causal influence on the model's final emotion representation and integrate the identified local components into coherent global emotion circuits that drive emotional expression (Q2). Directly modulating these circuits achieves 99.65% emotion-expression accuracy on the test set, surpassing prompting- and steering-based methods (Q3). To our knowledge, this is the first systematic study to uncover and validate emotion circuits in LLMs, offering new insights into interpretability and controllable emotional intelligence.

Ablate a component of a language model, and other components often appear to adjust and compensate. This phenomenon, termed self-repair, has been observed repeatedly, but its mechanism remains unclear. The most systematic study to date concluded that self-repair is noisy and unlikely to have a single explanation. We argue that it has one: a gain already present before any ablation. Any intervention on a causally important component can be viewed as a point on a coordinate axis λ, the signed strength of a counterfactual contrast. Hence, conventional ablation methods are uncalibrated points on this axis. We show that the causal repair response for a fine-grained unit r is governed by an affine law, E_r(λ)=own_r+γ_rλ. The slope γ_r is a fixed coefficient that consistently influences the model, with or without ablation, and its sign determines whether the unit counteracts or reinforces the removed signal. On a factual-verdict task across four models from distinct families (Gemma, Qwen, LLaMA, and Mistral), we identify components including MLP neurons, OV neurons, and singular directions that follow this affine law, 68 of 81 downstream directions in all. Moreover, we can anticipate the magnitude of γ_r from the fixed weights. On the IOI circuit of GPT-2 Small, seven of the ten heads the intervention can reach follow the law, and all seven are counterweights. From this perspective, what may appear as self-repair is a counterweight performing its usual operation when the contrastive signal emerges at the core.

We introduce BCAT, a PDE foundation model designed for autoregressive prediction of solutions to two dimensional fluid dynamics problems. Our approach uses a block causal transformer architecture to model next frame predictions, leveraging previous frames as contextual priors rather than relying solely on sub-frames or pixel-based inputs commonly used in image generation methods. This block causal framework more effectively captures the spatial dependencies inherent in nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics and physical phenomena. In an ablation study, next frame prediction demonstrated a 3.5x accuracy improvement over next token prediction. BCAT is trained on a diverse range of fluid dynamics datasets, including incompressible and compressible Navier-Stokes equations across various geometries and parameter regimes, as well as the shallow-water equations. The model's performance was evaluated on 6 distinct downstream prediction tasks and tested on about 8K trajectories to measure robustness on a variety of fluid dynamics simulations. BCAT achieved an average relative error of 1.18% across all evaluation tasks, outperforming prior approaches on standard benchmarks. With fine-tuning on a turbulence dataset, we show that the method adapts to new settings with more than 40% better accuracy over prior methods.

Reusable skill libraries allow large language model (LLM) agents to reuse procedural knowledge across tasks, but they also turn memory access into a challenging retrieval problem. Full-library prompting preserves coverage at high context cost, vector retrieval returns compact neighborhoods but treats skills as independent text, and graph-based retrieval can recover workflow context only when the edges that carry relevance are reliable. We propose CaSKG, a counterfactual-causal skill graph framework that calibrates procedural relations before retrieval. CaSKG first builds a high-recall directed candidate graph from semantic, lexical, input/output, and structural evidence, with repair evidence and an optional LLM judge further refining candidate scores. It then applies direction-conditioned textual counterfactual probes that remove, substitute, and reorder skill pairs, aggregates the evidence with Bayesian smoothing, and publishes a state-filtered weighted graph for task-conditioned expansion. The graph is constructed offline and used without changing the downstream agent policy or task interface. Across six LLM backbones on ALFWorld ID-140 and ScienceWorld U211, CaSKG achieves the highest task score in all twelve combinations of model and benchmark. Relative to Graph-of-Skills (GoS), it improves the six-model macro-average ScienceWorld score from 72.62 to 80.50 and ALFWorld success from 80.01\% to 86.79\%, while reducing mean environment steps on both benchmarks. Qualitative and ablation analyses further show that calibrated edges help retrieval preserve prerequisites, state-changing actions, verification routines, and final completion steps. These results position edge-confidence calibration as an effective route to compact and executable skill retrieval at scaleCode is available at: https://github.com/ZhiyuanLi218/Caskg .

FullAttn repeatedly exposes the complete causal history to every attention head, creating substantial redundant computation and memory traffic even with IO-efficient dense kernels. We introduce CoWA, a structured attention architecture that distributes access to the causal history across KV heads. All heads share near-diagonal and prefix-sink windows, while complementary long-range windows partition the remaining history. Their union provides full causal coverage although each head attends sparsely to distant tokens. This position-defined attention pattern requires no learned router or indexer, is used consistently during training and inference, and aligns with KV-head tensor parallelism. A window-matched ablation at 8K isolates the effect of complementary long-range allocation: CoWA with 100% collective coverage reaches 89.73% accuracy, compared with 89.97% for FullAttn, while duplicated long-range windows perform substantially worse. Across a broader controlled associative-recall comparison with matched token budgets, CoWA closely tracks FullAttn as the context grows, whereas other sparse patterns lose a substantial fraction of the associations. In an attention-operator benchmark at 128K tokens with tensor parallelism, CoWA reduces forward and backward latency during training by 7.4x and 8.6x and decoding latency during inference by 3.0x over FullAttn. Its per-rank peak operator memory matches FullAttn during training and is 7.6x lower during decoding. Across scaling-law training from 0.6B to 14B parameters, CoWA closely tracks FullAttn in perplexity while reducing total training FLOPs. The resulting 14B models and 32B models from separate continued training achieve comparable knowledge, reasoning, and long-context retrieval scores to FullAttn. These results show that full causal coverage can be a collective property of the head ensemble rather than a duplicated property of every head.

Transforming causal generative language models into bidirectional encoders offers a powerful alternative to BERT-style architectures. However, current approaches remain limited: they lack consensus on optimal training objectives, suffer from catastrophic forgetting at scale, and fail to flexibly integrate the vast ecosystem of specialized generative models. In this work, through systematic ablations on the Gemma3 and Qwen3 families, we identify the key factors driving successful adaptation, highlighting the critical role of an often-omitted prior masking phase. To scale this process without original pre-training data, we introduce a dual strategy combining linear weight merging with a lightweight multi-domain data mixture that mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Finally, we augment our encoders by merging them with specialized causal models, seamlessly transferring modality- and domain-specific capabilities. This open-source recipe, designed for any causal decoder LLM, yields BidirLM, a family of five encoders that outperform alternatives on text, vision, and audio representation benchmarks.

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated once per observation gap, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A 2 times 2 encoder times integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency p < 1/256) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

Estimation of causal effects is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the harder problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments on synthetic case studies, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph. We also perform ablation studies that elucidate Do-PFN's scalability and robustness across datasets with a variety of causal characteristics.

Transformers achieve strong language modeling performance by providing direct token-to-token communication paths, but causal self-attention scales quadratically with context length. Recurrent and state-space models reduce this cost, yet compress history into sequentially updated fixed-size states. This paper studies a third primitive: a parallel content-addressed memory over causal successor records. The proposed Parallel Causal Associative Field (PCAF) writes local records from a context window into hash buckets, retrieves a bounded candidate set for the current query, forms a sparse cache distribution over successor tokens, and mixes that cache with a parametric local language model through a learned gate. The resulting model maintains sparse long-context access while avoiding a single fixed recurrent state bottleneck. We evaluate PCAF under full autoregressive pretraining on WikiText-103 and PG-19 using a distributed Google Cloud TPU v4-32 pod. At 303M parameters and context length T = 2048, PCAF-semantic reaches 36.31 perplexity on WikiText-103 and 52.45 perplexity on PG-19, compared with 47.49 and 53.84 for a matched dense Transformer. PCAF-semantic simultaneously processes 0.61-0.62M tokens/s across the TPU pod, versus 0.43M tokens/s for dense and local attention baselines. Supporting 41M-parameter multi-seed sweeps and single-GPU component ablations show that the associative cache, retrieval capacity, and learned gate materially affect the speed-quality trade-off.

REPresentation Alignment (REPA) improves the training of generative flow models by aligning intermediate hidden states with pretrained teacher features, but its effectiveness in token-conditioned audio Flow Matching critically depends on the choice of supervised layers, which is typically made heuristically based on the depth. In this work, we introduce Attribution-Guided REPresentation Alignment (AG-REPA), a novel causal layer selection strategy for representation alignment in audio Flow Matching. Firstly, we find that layers that best store semantic/acoustic information (high teacher-space similarity) are not necessarily the layers that contribute most to the velocity field that drives generation, and we call it Store-Contribute Dissociation (SCD). To turn this insight into an actionable training guidance, we propose a forward-only gate ablation (FoG-A) that quantifies each layer's causal contribution via the induced change in the predicted velocity field, enabling sparse layer selection and adaptive weighting for alignment. Across unified speech and general-audio training (LibriSpeech + AudioSet) under different token-conditioning topologies, AG-REPA consistently outperforms REPA baselines. Overall, our results show that alignment is most effective when applied to the causally dominant layers that drive the velocity field, rather than to layers that are representationally rich but functionally passive.

Multi-stream transformer architectures have recently been proposed as a promising direction for managing representation collapse and the vanishing gradient problem for residual connections, yet their internal mechanisms remain unexplored. In particular, the recently introduced Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) architecture posits multiple residual streams with constrained interaction, but lacks in-depth mechanistic analysis. We present the first open-source mHC language model (https://huggingface.co/wgpeng/mhc-780m) and analyze the multiple-stream architecture with a suite of representation-level metrics and causal interventions to probe how parallel streams encode and utilize information. Specifically, we introduce a systematic stream ablation-and-rescue framework that enables direct causal comparison of residual streams during inference. Through targeted pairwise interventions and controlled recovery experiments, we distinguish functional redundancy from asymmetric utilization and reveal how information is distributed across streams beyond what is observable from representational similarity alone.

Accurately forecasting the impact of macroeconomic events is critical for investors and policymakers. Salient events like monetary policy decisions and employment reports often trigger market movements by shaping expectations of economic growth and risk, thereby establishing causal relationships between events and market behavior. Existing forecasting methods typically focus either on textual analysis or time-series modeling, but fail to capture the multi-modal nature of financial markets and the causal relationship between events and price movements. To address these gaps, we propose CAMEF (Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting), a multi-modality framework that effectively integrates textual and time-series data with a causal learning mechanism and an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation technique for causal-enhanced financial forecasting. Our contributions include: (1) a multi-modal framework that captures causal relationships between policy texts and historical price data; (2) a new financial dataset with six types of macroeconomic releases from 2008 to April 2024, and high-frequency real trading data for five key U.S. financial assets; and (3) an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation strategy. We compare CAMEF to state-of-the-art transformer-based time-series and multi-modal baselines, and perform ablation studies to validate the effectiveness of the causal learning mechanism and event types.

Emergent misalignment can arise when a language model is fine-tuned on a narrowly scoped supervised objective: the model learns the target behavior, yet also develops undesirable out-of-domain behaviors. We investigate a mechanistic approach to preventing emergent misalignment by identifying a small set of internal features that reliably control the misaligned behavior and then discouraging the model from strengthening these features during fine-tuning. Across six fine-tuning domains, blocking (i.e., constraining) a fixed set of features achieves up to 95\% relative reduction in emergent misalignment with no degradation in model quality or target-task performance. We strengthen validity with disjoint selection/evaluation splits, multiple independent judges, multiple random seeds for key settings, quality metrics, and extensive ablations demonstrating that the reduction in misalignment is specific to the identified mechanism. We also characterize a limiting regime in which misalignment re-emerges under prolonged fine-tuning, present evidence consistent with rerouting through alternative features or layers, and evaluate modifications that partially restore the misalignment-blocking effect. Overall, our results show that targeted training-time constraints on internal mechanisms can mitigate emergent misalignment without degrading target-task performance.

Decision models often score a variable-sized set of candidate actions encoded in a single sequence. This setting is increasingly relevant for System 1 components inside generative systems, where candidates may be proposed or ordered differently across runs. Standard causal cross-encoding is expressive, but it can make a candidate's score depend on serialization order rather than on the underlying decision problem. We introduce candidate-independent block-causal attention, which preserves causal computation within the shared context and each candidate while blocking cross-candidate information flow and resetting candidate positions. We compare this architecture with standard causal attention and complementary invariant baselines across Gemma 3 1B, Qwen3 1.7B, and Qwen3 4B backbones. Candidate-independent attention consistently reduces permutation sensitivity while retaining competitive decision quality; ablations indicate that candidate isolation is the primary source of the effect, with position resetting completing the intended symmetry. A larger Qwen3-4B study further examines the behavior of the proposed architecture with substantially more training data. Code is available at the https://github.com/guyAmit/ci-decision-models{blue{project repository}}, and the https://huggingface.co/Guy-Amit/qwen3-4b-ci-decision-4096-poc{blue{Qwen3-4B model artifact}} is available on Hugging Face.

Removing an input-scaling module changes both a classifier and the perturbations reaching its encoder. A robustness difference can therefore reflect the comparison rule as well as the module. We demonstrate this problem in a four-qubit quantum-attention detector on generated power-grid trajectories. A learned scaling module appears beneficial at a fixed physical attack budget, but matching an upper bound on perturbations at the encoder reverses the ordering. Neither comparison alone establishes a robustness benefit caused by the module. The initial test also perturbs clean examples into attacked examples while retaining their original labels; tests restricted to already attacked examples do not establish a benefit. Replacing a trained model's input scales disrupts detection. Retraining its linear classification layer restores the detection rate, but changes individual predictions, leaving the comparison descriptive rather than causal. Two further design checks explain why the input quantum Fisher information regularizer cannot train this model's query parameters, and why removing confidence bounds does not establish a larger certified radius. The evidence is limited to ten seeds, exact simulation, synthetic data, and a restricted set of attacks; classical baselines achieve better clean prediction. The practical lesson is to specify which perturbation budget is fixed, check that attacks preserve labels and interventions preserve predictions, and distinguish exploratory controls from confirmatory evidence.

Vision-language models must reconcile visual evidence with memorized world knowledge when the two conflict. How they resolve this conflict shapes the reliability of multimodal systems, yet prior work characterizes it behaviorally without a component-level causal account. We combine activation patching across three granularities (residual stream, attention heads, and MLP sublayers) with model-component ablation studies and mechanistic analysis. Across three VLM families, we find that visual grounding emerges by default, whereas prior grounding depends on a small set of causally necessary attention heads (2.5-4.8%) concentrated in the second half of the network. These heads enable answers from stored world knowledge (e.g., "red" for a strawberry) despite conflicting visual input. Ablating them flips predictions from knowledge-grounded to visually grounded answers in 68-96% of cases under prior-knowledge prompts, but changes only 0.8-7.5% of visually grounded predictions, establishing an asymmetric causal structure. The identified heads decompose into routing heads, which modulate information flow, and writing heads, which directly project answer tokens into the residual stream. This structure is consistent across model families and scales, revealing a sparse causal circuit underlying perception-knowledge conflict in VLMs.

Causal video generators must predict from the past, but they need not learn only from it. In streaming autoregressive video diffusion, each emitted segment becomes a commitment that future segments must preserve. Standard training, however, only asks each causal state to explain the present. This creates what we call a representation-level planning gap: states that fit the current segment may discard identity, layout, and motion information needed for a consistent future. We introduce Video-Mirai, a training-only method that closes this gap without changing causal inference: the generator rolls out causally, a frozen foresight encoder reads the completed rollout non-causally, and a lightweight predictor distills the resulting stopped-gradient targets into causal states. Future frames supervise representations, never generator inputs. At inference, the encoder and predictor are discarded, leaving the original architecture, per-step FLOPs, and KV-cache behavior unchanged. Video-Mirai improves a strong Causal-Forcing baseline on 5-second VBench from 83.8 to 84.6 in terms of Total Score. On 30-second rollouts beyond the training horizon, subject consistency improves from 84.9 to 88.5 and background consistency from 90.2 to 91.9. Ablations identify future-conditioned targets as the key ingredient, and probes show that future frames become more decodable from current features. Causality should constrain inference, not representation supervision. Our study highlights that visual autoregressive models need foresight. Project page: https://y0uroy.github.io/Video-Mirai.

Reasoning-specialized language models show large performance gains over base models, yet the internal changes responsible for improved multi-step reasoning remain poorly understood. It is unclear whether reasoning fine-tuning improves local token-level competence or globally reorganizes how models structure inference over time. We address this question by modeling Chain-of-Thought reasoning as a switching dynamical system (SDS), in which internal representations evolve under discrete latent policy states. Our framework combines time-aware contrastive representation learning with discrete regime discovery to recover latent policies from activation trajectories. Across four benchmarks and model scales from 1.5B to 32B parameters, reasoning-fine-tuned models exhibit richer latent-policy organization than their base counterparts, characterized by more differentiated transition structure and model-dependent changes in state utilization, persistence, and mixing. The recovered regimes exhibit functional specialization aligned with distinct reasoning stages, and extensive controls confirm that their structure is not explained by correctness, representation learning, or modeling priors, but depends on the coherent temporal organization of reasoning trajectories. Causal interventions further show that the regimes are functionally meaningful: state-swap ablations reduce one-step predictive fit, while transplanting reasoning dynamics into base models improves performance on challenging reasoning problems. Finally, SDS-guided pruning of failure-prone reasoning prefixes outperforms self-consistency in 11 of 12 model-dataset settings, with gains of up to 12.5 percentage points. Together, our results suggest that reasoning fine-tuning globally reorganizes latent dynamics, offering a new lens for mechanistic analysis and process-level control of reasoning models.

The proficiency of Large Language Models (LLMs) in processing structured data and adhering to syntactic rules is a capability that drives their widespread adoption but also makes them paradoxically vulnerable. In this paper, we investigate this vulnerability through BreakFun, a jailbreak methodology that weaponizes an LLM's adherence to structured schemas. BreakFun employs a three-part prompt that combines an innocent framing and a Chain-of-Thought distraction with a core "Trojan Schema"--a carefully crafted data structure that compels the model to generate harmful content, exploiting the LLM's strong tendency to follow structures and schemas. We demonstrate this vulnerability is highly transferable, achieving an average success rate of 89% across 13 foundational and proprietary models on JailbreakBench, and reaching a 100% Attack Success Rate (ASR) on several prominent models. A rigorous ablation study confirms this Trojan Schema is the attack's primary causal factor. To counter this, we introduce the Adversarial Prompt Deconstruction guardrail, a defense that utilizes a secondary LLM to perform a "Literal Transcription"--extracting all human-readable text to isolate and reveal the user's true harmful intent. Our proof-of-concept guardrail demonstrates high efficacy against the attack, validating that targeting the deceptive schema is a viable mitigation strategy. Our work provides a look into how an LLM's core strengths can be turned into critical weaknesses, offering a fresh perspective for building more robustly aligned models.

Alignment tuning is meant to make harmful-request refusal robust, yet this safety behavior can be erased by a small set of benign fine-tuning examples. This is a deployment risk for open-weight models because a checkpoint can pass refusal tests at release time and later lose refusal under low-cost downstream fine-tuning. Prior work has established these refusal failures, but existing studies do not show how to detect this fragility in the aligned model itself before an attack or fine-tuning intervention is run. We introduce Skin-Deep, a geometric diagnostic that detects alignment fragility directly from the aligned model's hidden-state activations before such an intervention is run and compresses the layer-wise safety geometry into a single scalar, the Geometric Fragility Score (GFS). Applied to twenty-one instruction-tuned models spanning six alignment recipes and 3B--32B parameters, Skin-Deep reveals a recurring low-rank safety subspace across model families. Direction ablations show that removing directions in this subspace weakens harmful-request refusal, providing causal evidence that the recovered geometry underlies refusal behavior. Crucially, GFS identifies, before any fine-tuning, the initially safe model that retains the most refusal after small-scale LoRA fine-tuning. These results establish GFS as a practical pre-deployment diagnostic for flagging fragile refusal behavior without running an attack.

We investigate the temporal concatenation of sub-policies in Markov Decision Processes (MDP) with time-varying reward functions. We introduce General Dijkstra Search (GDS), and prove that globally optimal goal-reaching policies can be recovered through temporal composition of intermediate optimal sub-policies. Motivated by the "search, select, update" principle underlying GDS, we propose Dynamic Latent Routing (DLR), a language-model post-training method that jointly learns discrete latent codes, routing policies, and model parameters through dynamic search in a single training stage. In low-data fine-tuning settings, DLR matches or outperforms supervised fine-tuning across four datasets and six models, achieving a mean gain of +6.6 percentage points, while prior discrete-latent baselines consistently underperform SFT. Mechanistic analyses and targeted code ablations show that DLR learns structured routing behaviors with distinct causal roles.

Action-conditioned world models (ACWMs) have shown strong promise for video prediction and decision-making. However, existing benchmarks are largely restricted to egocentric navigation or narrow, task-specific robotics datasets, offering only limited coverage of the rich physical interactions required for generalized world understanding. We introduce ACWM-Phys, a new benchmark for evaluating action-conditioned prediction under diverse physical dynamics in a clean, controllable simulation environment with a carefully designed action space. ACWM-Phys contains training and evaluation data spanning rigid-body dynamics, kinematics, deformable-object interactions, and particle dynamics. To evaluate both interpolation and generalization, we design in-distribution and out-of-distribution protocols with controlled shifts in interaction patterns or scene configurations. By building the benchmark in a fully controllable simulator, ACWM-Phys enables precise data collection, reproducible evaluation, and systematic analysis of model capabilities for physically grounded world modeling. Through systematic experiments on ACWM-DiT, we find that OoD generalization depends not only on the physical regime but also on effective task complexity: models generalize well on visually simple, low-dimensional interactions with clear geometric structure, but suffer larger drops on deformable contacts, high-dimensional control, and complex articulated motion. This suggests that the model still relies heavily on visual appearance patterns instead of fully learning the underlying physics. Ablations show that cross-attention improves high-dimensional action conditioning, causal VAEs outperform frame-wise encoders, and larger action spaces are harder to model but can improve generalization by providing richer control signals. These findings guide the design of physically grounded world models.

Distinguishing animate from inanimate concepts in written language requires more than shallow text processing, as it involves recognizing complex selectional constraints and contextual cues, such as verb-argument interactions. Yet, current large language models (LLMs) appear to be capable of doing it. We investigate whether this animacy-sensitive behavior of LLMs can be traced to a localized set of causally relevant components and connections. To do so, we construct a controlled dataset of minimal pairs and perform circuit discovery on four open-weight models. Through in-depth experiments and ablations, we show that a causal mechanism responsible for handling animacy in these models does exist, thus discovering an animacy circuit. At the same time, this circuit appears to be less localized compared to other known ones and generalizes only partially across models and animacy tasks, confirming the distributed, context-dependent, and somewhat graded nature of the animacy concept.

Large language models (LLMs) generalize smoothly across continuous semantic spaces, yet strict logical reasoning demands the formation of discrete decision boundaries. Prevailing theories relying on linear isometric projections fail to resolve this fundamental tension. In this work, we argue that task context operates as a non-isometric dynamical operator that enforces a necessary "topological distortion." By applying Gram-Schmidt decomposition to residual-stream activations , we reveal a dual-modulation mechanism driving this process: a class-agnostic topological preservation that anchors global structure to prevent semantic collapse, and a specific algebraic divergence that directionally tears apart cross-class concepts to forge logical boundaries. We validate this geometric evolution across a gradient of tasks, from simple mapping to complex primality testing. Crucially, targeted specific vector ablation establishes a strict causal binding between this topology and model function: algebraically erasing the divergence component collapses parity classification accuracy from 100% to chance levels (38.57%). Furthermore, we uncover a three-phase layer-wise geometric dynamic and demonstrate that under social pressure prompts, models fail to generate sufficient divergence. This results in a "manifold entanglement" that geometrically explains sycophancy and hallucination. Ultimately, our findings revise the linear-isometric presumption, demonstrating that the emergence of discrete logic in LLMs is purchased at an irreducible cost of topological deformation.

Autoregressive video generators are attractive for streaming, long-horizon, and interactive applications, but distilling strong black-box teachers into causal students remains difficult. The student must learn under its own rollout distribution, whereas practical teachers may expose only prompt-conditioned completed videos and may differ in architecture, capacity, temporal design, and sampling schedule. This interface makes supervised fine-tuning off-policy, score-based distillation inapplicable, and direct adversarial imitation too sparse for denoising-time credit assignment. We propose Adversarial Flow Distillation (AFD), an on-policy framework for heterogeneous black-box video distillation. AFD queries the teacher and rolls out the current student on the same prompts, trains a prompt-paired Bradley-Terry discriminator to estimate clean-sample teacher-student discrepancy, and converts the resulting on-policy advantage into forward-process flow-matching updates on the student's own noised states. Thus, AFD provides dense velocity-field supervision while requiring no teacher scores, latents, denoising trajectories, step alignment, or reverse-chain reinforcement learning. Experiments across two causal AR student families show that AFD consistently improves motion- and physics-sensitive generation while preserving general video quality, and ablations validate the importance of adaptive on-policy feedback and forward-process credit assignment. The method requires only clean teacher videos and student rollouts, providing a practical route for distilling proprietary or heterogeneous video generators into efficient autoregressive students.

We investigate the internal structure of language model computations using causal analysis and demonstrate two motifs: (1) a form of adaptive computation where ablations of one attention layer of a language model cause another layer to compensate (which we term the Hydra effect) and (2) a counterbalancing function of late MLP layers that act to downregulate the maximum-likelihood token. Our ablation studies demonstrate that language model layers are typically relatively loosely coupled (ablations to one layer only affect a small number of downstream layers). Surprisingly, these effects occur even in language models trained without any form of dropout. We analyse these effects in the context of factual recall and consider their implications for circuit-level attribution in language models.

Holistic visual tokenizers are fundamental to unified multimodal models (UMMs) as they map diverse visual inputs into a unified representation space. In this paper, we present HYDRA-X, the first UMM that unifies image and video tokenization within a single Vision Transformer (ViT). Our design is driven by two core challenges: efficiently injecting spatiotemporal reconstruction capability into a native ViT, and embedding image- and video-level semantic awareness into the latent space. To address the first, comprehensive ablations reveal two key findings: (1) frame-level causal temporal attention suffices for visual reconstruction, whereas full spatiotemporal attention degrades it; and (2) hierarchical temporal compression substantially outperforms single-step alternatives. To tackle the second, we propose a lightweight decompressor that upsamples temporally compressed features under joint image-video teacher supervision, thereby enforcing complementary semantic structures within the compact latent space. Building on this holistic tokenizer, we further propose a principled improvement of the editing pipeline: source-target interaction should occur at the latent level inside the tokenizer rather than at the semantic level inside the LLM, substantially improving editing consistency and accelerating convergence. Instantiated at the 7B dense model, HYDRA-X achieves strong performance across image and video understanding and generation tasks, paving the way for future unified-tokenizer UMMs.

Our goal is to train a policy for autonomous driving via imitation learning that is robust enough to drive a real vehicle. We find that standard behavior cloning is insufficient for handling complex driving scenarios, even when we leverage a perception system for preprocessing the input and a controller for executing the output on the car: 30 million examples are still not enough. We propose exposing the learner to synthesized data in the form of perturbations to the expert's driving, which creates interesting situations such as collisions and/or going off the road. Rather than purely imitating all data, we augment the imitation loss with additional losses that penalize undesirable events and encourage progress -- the perturbations then provide an important signal for these losses and lead to robustness of the learned model. We show that the ChauffeurNet model can handle complex situations in simulation, and present ablation experiments that emphasize the importance of each of our proposed changes and show that the model is responding to the appropriate causal factors. Finally, we demonstrate the model driving a car in the real world.

Refusal on harmful prompts is a key safety behaviour in instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs), yet the internal causes of this behaviour remain poorly understood. We study two public instruction-tuned models, Gemma-2-2B-IT and LLaMA-3.1-8B-IT, using sparse autoencoders (SAEs) trained on residual-stream activations. Given a harmful prompt, we search the SAE latent space for feature sets whose ablation flips the model from refusal to compliance, demonstrating causal influence and creating a jailbreak. Our search proceeds in three stages: (1) Refusal Direction: find a refusal-mediating direction and collect SAE features near that direction; (2) Greedy Filtering: prune to a minimal set; and (3) Interaction Discovery: fit a factorization machine (FM) that captures nonlinear interactions among the remaining active features and the minimal set. This pipeline yields a broad set of jailbreak-critical features, offering insight into the mechanistic basis of refusal. Moreover, we find evidence of redundant features that remain dormant unless earlier features are suppressed. Our findings highlight the potential for fine-grained auditing and targeted intervention in safety behaviours by manipulating the interpretable latent space.

We introduce Exemplar Partitioning (EP), an unsupervised method for constructing interpretable feature dictionaries from large language model activations with sim 10^3times fewer tokens than comparable sparse autoencoders (SAEs). An EP dictionary is a Voronoi partition of activation space, built by leader-clustering streamed activations within a distance threshold. Each region is anchored by an observed exemplar that serves as both its membership criterion and intervention direction; dictionary size is not prespecified, but determined by the activation geometry at that threshold. Because exemplars are observed rather than learned, dictionaries built from the same data stream are directly comparable across layers, models, and training checkpoints. We characterise EP as an interpretability object via targeted demonstrations of properties newly accessible through this construction, plus one head-to-head benchmark. In Gemma-2-2B, EP dictionary regions are interpretable and support causal interventions: refusal in instruction-tuned Gemma concentrates in a region whose exemplar ablation can collapse held-out refusal. Cross-checkpoint matching between base and instruction-tuned dictionaries separates the directions preserved through finetuning from those introduced by it. EP regions and Gemma Scope SAE features decompose activation space differently but agree on a shared core: sim20% of EP regions match an SAE feature at F_1 > 0.5, and EP one-hot probes retain sim97% of raw-activation probe accuracy at ell_0 = 1. Nearest-exemplar distance provides a free out-of-distribution signal at inference. On AxBench latent concept detection at Gemma-2-2B-it L20, EP at p_1 reaches mean AUROC 0.881, +0.126 over the canonical GemmaScope SAE leaderboard entry and within 0.030 of SAE-A's 0.911, at sim 10^3times less build compute.

Mechanistic interpretability (MI) requires full access to model internals, yet the APIs for most widely deployed language models at best expose log-probabilities over output tokens. This creates a surrogate problem: when do measurements made on open models allow us to make claims about a closed model? We evaluate surrogate fidelity at the prediction, attribution, and representation levels. For binary classification tasks, log-odds provide an API-compatible scalar readout of the model's representation space, and leave-one-out attributions provide insight into model behavior. Across eleven models spanning four families (Llama, Qwen, GPT, and Gemini), we find that prediction fidelity substantially overstates attribution fidelity: models that agree on what the answer is often disagree on why. We document an access-validity inversion: white-box signals like attention patterns and perturbation magnitudes are highly stable across models but only weakly predictive of causal attributions, which black-box input ablations capture by design. Mechanistic insight does not automatically transfer to closed targets, and prediction-level agreement is insufficient to warrant such transfer. Code and results are available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/surrogate.

This study quantifies the association between non-adherence to antipsychotic medications and adverse outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia. We frame the problem using survival analysis, focusing on the time to the earliest of several adverse events (early death, involuntary hospitalization, jail booking). We extend standard causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching) to utilize various survival models to estimate individual and average treatment effects, where treatment corresponds to medication non-adherence. Analyses are repeated using different amounts of longitudinal information (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Using data from Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania, we find strong evidence that non-adherence advances adverse outcomes by approximately 1 to 4 months. Ablation studies confirm that county-provided risk scores adjust for key confounders, as their removal amplifies the estimated effects. Subgroup analyses by medication formulation (injectable vs. oral) and medication type consistently show that non-adherence is associated with earlier adverse events. These findings highlight the clinical importance of adherence in delaying psychiatric crises and show that integrating survival analysis with causal inference tools can yield policy-relevant insights. We caution that although we apply causal inference, we only make associative claims and discuss assumptions needed for causal interpretation.

Actual causality (AC), a fundamental aspect of causal reasoning (CR), is responsible for attribution and responsibility assignment in real-world scenarios. However, existing LLM-based methods lack grounding in formal AC theory, resulting in limited interpretability. Therefore, we propose AC-Reason, a semi-formal reasoning framework that identifies causally relevant events within an AC scenario, infers the values of their formal causal factors (e.g., sufficiency, necessity, and normality), and answers AC queries via a theory-guided algorithm with explanations. While AC-Reason does not explicitly construct a causal graph, it operates over variables in the underlying causal structure to support principled reasoning. To enable comprehensive evaluation, we introduce AC-Bench, a new benchmark built upon and substantially extending Big-Bench Hard Causal Judgment (BBH-CJ). AC-Bench comprises ~1K carefully annotated samples, each with detailed reasoning steps and focuses solely on actual causation. The case study shows that synthesized samples in AC-Bench present greater challenges for LLMs. Extensive experiments on BBH-CJ and AC-Bench show that AC-Reason consistently improves LLM performance over baselines. On BBH-CJ, all tested LLMs surpass the average human rater accuracy of 69.60%, with GPT-4 + AC-Reason achieving 75.04%. On AC-Bench, GPT-4 + AC-Reason again achieves the highest accuracy of 71.82%. AC-Bench further enables fine-grained analysis of reasoning faithfulness, revealing that only Qwen-2.5-72B-Instruct, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and GPT-4o exhibit faithful reasoning, whereas GPT-4 tends to exploit shortcuts. Finally, our ablation study proves that integrating AC theory into LLMs is highly effective, with the proposed algorithm contributing the most significant performance gains.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

We present a neural framework for learning conditional optimal transport (OT) maps between probability distributions. Our approach introduces a conditioning mechanism capable of processing both categorical and continuous conditioning variables simultaneously. At the core of our method lies a hypernetwork that generates transport layer parameters based on these inputs, creating adaptive mappings that outperform simpler conditioning methods. Comprehensive ablation studies demonstrate the superior performance of our method over baseline configurations. Furthermore, we showcase an application to global sensitivity analysis, offering high performance in computing OT-based sensitivity indices. This work advances the state-of-the-art in conditional optimal transport, enabling broader application of optimal transport principles to complex, high-dimensional domains such as generative modeling and black-box model explainability.

Diffusion models (DMs) have achieved remarkable success in image and video generation. However, they still struggle with (1) physical alignment and (2) out-of-distribution (OOD) instruction following. We argue that these issues stem from the models' failure to learn causal directions and to disentangle causal factors for novel recombination. We introduce the Causal Scene Graph (CSG) and the Physical Alignment Probe (PAP) dataset to enable diagnostic interventions. This analysis yields three key insights. First, DMs struggle with multi-hop reasoning for elements not explicitly determined in the prompt. Second, the prompt embedding contains disentangled representations for texture and physics. Third, visual causal structure is disproportionately established during the initial, computationally limited denoising steps. Based on these findings, we introduce LINA (Learning INterventions Adaptively), a novel framework that learns to predict prompt-specific interventions, which employs (1) targeted guidance in the prompt and visual latent spaces, and (2) a reallocated, causality-aware denoising schedule. Our approach enforces both physical alignment and OOD instruction following in image and video DMs, achieving state-of-the-art performance on challenging causal generation tasks and the Winoground dataset. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/LINA.

Prompt optimization methods either analyze individual failures in isolation or compare prompt variants across examples, operating on single execution traces with no access to the reasoning process distinguishing success from failure on the same input. We introduce ContraPrompt, built on the observation that when a model fails but succeeds on a retry with feedback, the difference between its two chain-of-thought traces constitutes an optimization signal not captured by prior methods. Unlike prior contrastive methods, we compare complete intermediate reasoning processes: the two traces share model, input, and base prompt, so remaining differences reflect reasoning strategy and appended error feedback -- we call this dyadic reasoning trace analysis. The multi-attempt solving phase is an instrumented agentic retry loop that generates contrastive data automatically without human annotation. Extracted rules are organized into an input-aware decision tree routing instructions by observable input characteristics. On four reasoning and compliance benchmarks, ContraPrompt outperforms GEPA (Agrawal et al., 2026) on all four, with absolute gains of +8.29 pp on HotPotQA (+20.8% rel.), +2.21 pp on GDPR-Bench (+18.2% rel.), +7.14 pp on GPQA Diamond (+10.6% rel.), and +0.74 pp on BBH (+0.85% rel.). Ablations confirm dyadic trace contrastivity is the critical component, with a -16% relative average drop upon its removal. On 53 EvalSet black-box optimization problems, ContraPrompt beats GEPA on 11, ties on 41, and loses on 1 at equal budget. On FiNER-139 financial named entity recognition (Loukas et al., 2022), ContraPrompt achieves +7.77 pp over the unoptimized baseline (+11.6% rel.) and +1.94 pp over GEPA (+2.66% rel.), with branch conditions aligning with standard US GAAP financial-instrument categories.

Large language model (LLM) agents frequently fail on multi-step tasks involving reasoning, tool use, and environment interaction. While such failures are typically logged or retried heuristically, they contain structured signals about where execution broke down. We introduce CausalFlow, an interventional framework that converts failed agent traces into minimal counterfactual repairs and reusable supervision. CausalFlow models execution traces as sequential chains of dependent steps and computes Causal Responsibility Scores(CRS) via step-level counterfactual intervention to identify failure-inducing steps. For these steps, we generate minimally edited repairs that flip the final outcome to success, producing validated contrastive pairs of the form (wrong step, corrected step). CausalFlow supports two complementary uses: targeted test-time repair that recovers from failures with minimal behavioral drift, and training-time supervision suitable for offline preference optimization or reward modeling. Across four benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, question answering, and medical browsing, CausalFlow converts failed executions into validated minimal repairs with high minimality and causal-consensus scores, and demonstrates that causal attribution is necessary for reliable improvement across diverse agent tasks, outperforming heuristic refinement in complex retrieval settings while producing more localized repairs throughout. These results demonstrate that interventional analysis over structured execution traces provides a principled and scalable mechanism for transforming agent failures into reliability gains and learning-ready supervision.

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Can multi-agent communication pressure extract discrete, compositional representations of invisible physical properties from frozen video features? We show that agents communicating through a Gumbel-Softmax bottleneck with iterated learning develop positionally disentangled protocols for latent properties (elasticity, friction, mass ratio) without property labels or supervision on message structure. With 4 agents, 100% of 80 seeds converge to near-perfect compositionality (PosDis=0.999, holdout 98.3%). Controls confirm multi-agent structure -- not bandwidth or temporal coverage -- drives this effect. Causal intervention shows surgical property disruption (~15% drop on targeted property, <3% on others). A controlled backbone comparison reveals that the perceptual prior determines what is communicable: DINOv2 dominates on spatially-visible ramp physics (98.3% vs 95.1%), while V-JEPA 2 dominates on dynamics-only collision physics (87.4% vs 77.7%, d=2.74). Scale-matched (d=3.37) and frame-matched (d=6.53) controls attribute this gap entirely to video-native pretraining. The frozen protocol supports action-conditioned planning (91.5%) with counterfactual velocity reasoning (r=0.780). Validation on Physics 101 real camera footage confirms 85.6% mass-comparison accuracy on unseen objects, temporal dynamics contributing +11.2% beyond static appearance, agent-scaling compositionality replicating at 90% for 4 agents, and causal intervention extending to real video (d=1.87, p=0.022).

Causality -- referring to temporal, uni-directional cause-effect relationships between components -- underlies many complex generative processes, including videos, language, and robot trajectories. Current causal diffusion models entangle temporal reasoning with iterative denoising, applying causal attention across all layers, at every denoising step, and over the entire context. In this paper, we show that the causal reasoning in these models is separable from the multi-step denoising process. Through systematic probing of autoregressive video diffusers, we uncover two key regularities: (1) early layers produce highly similar features across denoising steps, indicating redundant computation along the diffusion trajectory; and (2) deeper layers exhibit sparse cross-frame attention and primarily perform intra-frame rendering. Motivated by these findings, we introduce Separable Causal Diffusion (SCD), a new architecture that explicitly decouples once-per-frame temporal reasoning, via a causal transformer encoder, from multi-step frame-wise rendering, via a lightweight diffusion decoder. Extensive experiments on both pretraining and post-training tasks across synthetic and real benchmarks show that SCD significantly improves throughput and per-frame latency while matching or surpassing the generation quality of strong causal diffusion baselines.

Medical image segmentation plays a vital role in clinical decision-making, enabling precise localization of lesions and guiding interventions. Despite significant advances in segmentation accuracy, the black-box nature of most deep models has raised growing concerns about their trustworthiness in high-stakes medical scenarios. Current explanation techniques have primarily focused on classification tasks, leaving the segmentation domain relatively underexplored. We introduced an explanation model for segmentation task which employs the causal inference framework and backpropagates the average treatment effect (ATE) into a quantification metric to determine the influence of input regions, as well as network components, on target segmentation areas. Through comparison with recent segmentation explainability techniques on two representative medical imaging datasets, we demonstrated that our approach provides more faithful explanations than existing approaches. Furthermore, we carried out a systematic causal analysis of multiple foundational segmentation models using our method, which reveals significant heterogeneity in perceptual strategies across different models, and even between different inputs for the same model. Suggesting the potential of our method to provide notable insights for optimizing segmentation models. Our code can be found at https://github.com/lcmmai/PdCR.

Medical image segmenters often get worse when sites, scanner vendors, or protocols change. Continual test-time adaptation (CTTA) addresses this problem without target labels, but it can be impossible to update a model on a non-stationary stream and can lead to a lot of errors. We examine a more reasonable and meaningful alternative: parameter-frozen inference enhancement(PIE). We use a source-trained segmenter that learns about anatomy-preserving scale and flip views, maps their predictions back to the native location, and averages the probabilities. We do not modify the weights of the model or the normalization statistics. On a cardiac MRI stream from M\&Ms, which is trained on vendor A and evaluated sequentially on vendors B, C, and D, PIE has 0.7786 mean Dice, compared to 0.7680 for source-only inference and 0.7388--0.7416 for five other online-adaptation baselines. The controlled ablations show that performance saturates at 28 views, and confidence weighting, class-prior correction, connected-component filtering, morphological refinement, and inter-slice smoothing have no effect or cause negative transfer. Qualitative results on cardiac MRI and fundus images are also consistent with the frozen ensemble keeping thinner and nested anatomical structures. These results provide a strong, stable baseline for medical CTTA and expose an important failure mode: adaptation and handcrafted refinement can be less reliable than carefully designed inference.

Sparse autoencoder (SAE) features are used to interpret and steer large language models, yet whether a feature's causal role is stable across SAE families remains untested. Single-token features that activate on one vocabulary item provide the diagnostic case where ground truth permits direct comparison. We analyze 3.9M features across six models and three SAE families using zero-ablation at full layer depth. Single-token features cluster 4.7x tighter in decoder space and concentrate in early layers (Layer 0 in GPT2-Small; L0-L4 in Gemma). Ablating them yields Benjamini-Hochberg-significant logit reductions in 178 of 208 full-layer conditions, with depth controlling whether damage cascades downstream or shapes the output directly. Cross-family causal differences exceed within-family scale effects: on the same base model, GemmaScope and BatchTopK features remain causally anchored, while LlamaScope features are locally redundant. The target token's rank recovers to within 2x baseline 96-98% of the time after the same ablation, and a controlled activation-function comparison reverses sign within the same model, leaving training recipe as the residual candidate. Cross-family interpretability claims are therefore sensitive to training methodology, not just activation function or scale.

We introduce HouseCrafter, a novel approach that can lift a floorplan into a complete large 3D indoor scene (e.g., a house). Our key insight is to adapt a 2D diffusion model, which is trained on web-scale images, to generate consistent multi-view color (RGB) and depth (D) images across different locations of the scene. Specifically, the RGB-D images are generated autoregressively in a batch-wise manner along sampled locations based on the floorplan, where previously generated images are used as condition to the diffusion model to produce images at nearby locations. The global floorplan and attention design in the diffusion model ensures the consistency of the generated images, from which a 3D scene can be reconstructed. Through extensive evaluation on the 3D-Front dataset, we demonstrate that HouseCraft can generate high-quality house-scale 3D scenes. Ablation studies also validate the effectiveness of different design choices. We will release our code and model weights. Project page: https://neu-vi.github.io/houseCrafter/

Foundation models have brought changes to the landscape of machine learning, demonstrating sparks of human-level intelligence across a diverse array of tasks. However, a gap persists in complex tasks such as causal inference, primarily due to challenges associated with intricate reasoning steps and high numerical precision requirements. In this work, we take a first step towards building causally-aware foundation models for treatment effect estimations. We propose a novel, theoretically justified method called Causal Inference with Attention (CInA), which utilizes multiple unlabeled datasets to perform self-supervised causal learning, and subsequently enables zero-shot causal inference on unseen tasks with new data. This is based on our theoretical results that demonstrate the primal-dual connection between optimal covariate balancing and self-attention, facilitating zero-shot causal inference through the final layer of a trained transformer-type architecture. We demonstrate empirically that CInA effectively generalizes to out-of-distribution datasets and various real-world datasets, matching or even surpassing traditional per-dataset methodologies. These results provide compelling evidence that our method has the potential to serve as a stepping stone for the development of causal foundation models.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Ablation studies have been widely used in the field of neuroscience to tackle complex biological systems such as the extensively studied Drosophila central nervous system, the vertebrate brain and more interestingly and most delicately, the human brain. In the past, these kinds of studies were utilized to uncover structure and organization in the brain, i.e. a mapping of features inherent to external stimuli onto different areas of the neocortex. considering the growth in size and complexity of state-of-the-art artificial neural networks (ANNs) and the corresponding growth in complexity of the tasks that are tackled by these networks, the question arises whether ablation studies may be used to investigate these networks for a similar organization of their inner representations. In this paper, we address this question and performed two ablation studies in two fundamentally different ANNs to investigate their inner representations of two well-known benchmark datasets from the computer vision domain. We found that features distinct to the local and global structure of the data are selectively represented in specific parts of the network. Furthermore, some of these representations are redundant, awarding the network a certain robustness to structural damages. We further determined the importance of specific parts of the network for the classification task solely based on the weight structure of single units. Finally, we examined the ability of damaged networks to recover from the consequences of ablations by means of recovery training. We argue that ablations studies are a feasible method to investigate knowledge representations in ANNs and are especially helpful to examine a networks robustness to structural damages, a feature of ANNs that will become increasingly important for future safety-critical applications.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have attracted significant attention for their strong reasoning ability. However, under a bidirectional attention mechanism, DLMs operate over an exponentially large exploration space compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), making it challenging to focus on reasoning-guiding tokens under random masking. We define causal shortcuts as token chains that cover the full sequence and provide explicit guidance towards correct reasoning trajectories. We analyze the effects of causal shortcuts on the reasoning accuracy and convergence speed of DLMs, and find that they largely improve answer convergence efficiency and generation accuracy. Motivated by this, we propose a Causal Shortcut Learning (CSL) Framework for DLMs. Specifically, we introduce a step-by-step token extraction procedure to extract causal shortcuts from data, and apply parallel prioritized masking on these tokens during training to enable efficient and accurate convergence to correct answers via causal shortcuts. Extensive experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks and two base models demonstrate that CSL consistently outperforms existing SFT-variant baselines, achieving an average improvement of 1.92% over SFT-only models, and up to 4.20% on MATH-500. The code is available at the https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning{https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

The do-calculus defines a general system of inference for interventional queries, allowing causal quantities to be transformed through successive applications of its rules. This process induces a rich space of equivalent interventional expressions, but combining and ordering these rules remains challenging. In this work, we introduce derivation graphs, which represent how do-calculus rules are applied and combined, and characterize the full space of observational and interventional probabilities which are equivalent under the do-calculus. The structure of these graphs yields a simple procedure that uses at most four applications of do-calculus rules. Finally, we show how applying identification algorithms to equivalent causal queries produces multiple valid estimands for the same causal quantity, eventually yielding more efficient estimators.

Learning causal graphs from interventional data is a challenging problem with broad applications. In molecular biology, for example, a central goal is to uncover gene regulatory networks from large-scale perturbation data. An ideal algorithm for this task should scale to thousands of nodes, incorporate interventions even when their targets are unknown, quantify uncertainty, and provide identifiability guarantees. However, existing approaches---e.g. approaches using score-based optimization or approximate Bayesian inference---often fail to meet all of these criteria. To address these limitations, we develop Amortized Bayesian Causal Discovery of Extended Factor Graphs (ABCDEFG). Our method guarantees exact acyclicity, scales to graphs with thousands of nodes, and naturally handles interventions even when their targets are unknown. Additionally, ABCDEFG estimates a posterior distribution whose maximum a posteriori estimate provably identifies the true causal graph up to an equivalence class. On simulated datasets, ABCDEFG achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, producing a well-calibrated posterior distribution while outperforming previous score-based and approximate Bayesian methods. Applied to large-scale single-cell perturbation data, ABCDEFG identifies both established and novel gene targets of growth factors.

The rapid increase of computed tomography (CT) scans and their time-consuming manual analysis have created an urgent need for robust automated analysis techniques in clinical settings. These aim to assist radiologists and help them managing their growing workload. Existing methods typically generate entire reports directly from 3D CT images, without explicitly focusing on observed abnormalities. This unguided approach often results in repetitive content or incomplete reports, failing to prioritize anomaly-specific descriptions. We propose a new anomaly-guided report generation model, which first predicts abnormalities and then generates targeted descriptions for each. Evaluation on a public dataset demonstrates significant improvements in report quality and clinical relevance. We extend our work by conducting an ablation study to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Large-scale video generation models are increasingly viewed as a promising path toward world models, yet their ability to capture causally coherent physical dynamics remains poorly understood. Existing evaluations largely emphasize visual quality, prompt adherence, or broad physical plausibility, leaving open whether a model can faithfully realize a complete causal cascade, in which an initiating event propagates through causally dependent interactions to a terminal outcome. We introduce CausalCascade, a simulator-grounded benchmark centered on 50 event-rich Blender scenes with structured event graphs, graph-grounded diagnostic VQA, three levels of future-event specification, and 2,832 controlled counterfactual variants, and use it to evaluate nine image-to-video models with complementary motion-, event-, and counterfactual-level diagnostics. Across the evaluated models, generated motion is more reliably localized spatially than realized with correct spatiotemporal evolution, while richer future-event specification improves event recovery but leaves physical realization limited. Counterfactual evaluation further reveals weak selective responsiveness to physical interventions, while most audited failures are foundational, arising at scene consistency or event occurrence. Together, these results position causal cascade generation as a process-level test of world modeling and highlight the need to jointly recover the intended future, faithfully realize its physical evolution, selectively respond to physical interventions, and maintain a coherent physical world over time. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepDeltaLab/CausalCascade .

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

Causal generative models provide a principled framework for answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries from observational data. However, many deep causal models rely on highly expressive architectures with opaque mechanisms, limiting auditability in high-stakes domains. We propose KaCGM, a causal generative model for mixed-type tabular data where each structural equation is parameterized by a Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN). This decomposition enables direct inspection of learned causal mechanisms, including symbolic approximations and visualization of parent--child relationships, while preserving query-agnostic generative semantics. We introduce a validation pipeline based on distributional matching and independence diagnostics of inferred exogenous variables, allowing assessment using observational data alone. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks show competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. A real-world cardiovascular case study further demonstrates the extraction of simplified structural equations and interpretable causal effects. These results suggest that expressive causal generative modeling and functional transparency can be achieved jointly, supporting trustworthy deployment in tabular decision-making settings. Code: https://github.com/aalmodovares/kacgm

Mechanism-targeted synthetic data is increasingly proposed as a way to steer pretraining toward desirable capabilities, but it remains unclear how such interventions should be evaluated. We study this question for in-context learning (ICL) under matched compute (iso-FLOPs) using Bi-Induct, a lightweight data rewrite that interleaves short directional copy snippets into a natural pretraining stream: forward-copy (induction), backward-copy (anti-induction, as a directional control), or a balanced mix. Across 0.13B-1B decoder-only models, we evaluate (i) few-shot performance on standard LM benchmarks and function-style ICL probes, (ii) head-level copy telemetry, and (iii) held-out perplexity as a guardrail. Bi-Induct reliably increases induction-head activity, but this does not translate into consistent improvements in few-shot generalization: on standard LM benchmarks, Bi-Induct is largely performance-neutral relative to natural-only training, while on function-style probes the 1B natural-only model performs best. Despite explicit backward-copy cues, anti-induction scores remain near zero across scales, revealing a strong forward/backward asymmetry. Targeted ablations show a sharper distinction: removing the top 2% induction heads per layer harms ICL more than matched random ablations, with the largest relative drop occurring in the natural-only models. This indicates that natural-only training produces more centralized, load-bearing induction circuitry, whereas Bi-Induct tends to create more distributed and redundant induction activity. Our main conclusion is that eliciting a mechanism is not the same as making it load-bearing. For data-centric foundation model design, this suggests that synthetic data interventions should be evaluated not only by signature amplification, but by whether they create causally necessary computation while preserving natural-data modeling quality.

While interpretability research has shed light on some internal algorithms utilized by transformer-based LLMs, reasoning in natural language, with its deep contextuality and ambiguity, defies easy categorization. As a result, formulating clear and motivating questions for circuit analysis that rely on well-defined in-domain and out-of-domain examples required for causal interventions is challenging. Although significant work has investigated circuits for specific tasks, such as indirect object identification (IOI), deciphering natural language reasoning through circuits remains difficult due to its inherent complexity. In this work, we take initial steps to characterize causal reasoning in LLMs by analyzing clear-cut cause-and-effect sentences like "I opened an umbrella because it started raining," where causal interventions may be possible through carefully crafted scenarios using GPT-2 small. Our findings indicate that causal syntax is localized within the first 2-3 layers, while certain heads in later layers exhibit heightened sensitivity to nonsensical variations of causal sentences. This suggests that models may infer reasoning by (1) detecting syntactic cues and (2) isolating distinct heads in the final layers that focus on semantic relationships.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as data-science agents, combining abstract reasoning with advanced tool use. Yet the relevant benchmark landscape largely divides into symbolic causal reasoning benchmarks without realistic data analysis or data analysis benchmarks without causal data-generating structure or a range of causal data science tasks. Existing causal evaluation datasets are often restricted to curated examples from existing sources, with diversity coming from limited templatized variations rather than from systematic generation of novel synthetic causal structures. We introduce CausalDS, a benchmark for evaluating causal reasoning in agentic data-science workflows. Each benchmark instance is a scene consisting of a sampled structural causal model (SCM) with generated observational data and an accompanying synthetic natural-language story grounded in a real domain. We ground the composition of the benchmark components in empirical distributions obtained from real-world datasets, thus retaining empirical structure while reducing the memorization risk through completely synthetic generation. From each scene, we then derive tasks spanning all three of Pearl's rungs. Most tasks include a data science coding component, where the model typically needs to use several tools to arrive at the final answer due to imperfect observations. Abstention is tested directly: for targets the graph does not identify, the graded answer is to abstain. The benchmark thus jointly evaluates symbolic causal reasoning, data science, uncertainty quantification, abstention, and tool use/coding. Because the generator is fully synthetic, the exam is not a fixed dataset: composition, difficulty, and size are parameters, and fresh exams can be drawn at will.

Causality testing, the act of determining cause and effect from measurements, is widely used in physics, climatology, neuroscience, econometrics and other disciplines. As a result, a large number of causality testing methods based on various principles have been developed. Causal relationships in complex systems are typically accompanied by entropic exchanges which are encoded in patterns of dynamical measurements. A data compression algorithm which can extract these encoded patterns could be used for inferring these relations. This motivates us to propose, for the first time, a generic causality testing framework based on data compression. The framework unifies existing causality testing methods and enables us to innovate a novel Compression-Complexity Causality measure. This measure is rigorously tested on simulated and real-world time series and is found to overcome the limitations of Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy, especially for noisy and non-synchronous measurements. Additionally, it gives insight on the `kind' of causal influence between input time series by the notions of positive and negative causality.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

This paper studies the problem of performing a sequence of optimal interventions in a causal dynamical system where both the target variable of interest and the inputs evolve over time. This problem arises in a variety of domains e.g. system biology and operational research. Dynamic Causal Bayesian Optimization (DCBO) brings together ideas from sequential decision making, causal inference and Gaussian process (GP) emulation. DCBO is useful in scenarios where all causal effects in a graph are changing over time. At every time step DCBO identifies a local optimal intervention by integrating both observational and past interventional data collected from the system. We give theoretical results detailing how one can transfer interventional information across time steps and define a dynamic causal GP model which can be used to quantify uncertainty and find optimal interventions in practice. We demonstrate how DCBO identifies optimal interventions faster than competing approaches in multiple settings and applications.

Radiologists routinely compare current and prior chest X-rays to track disease progression, producing follow-up reports that describe multiple findings, each localised to an anatomical region and annotated with a temporal change status. Existing automated methods either generate reports from a single image without modelling temporal context, or incorporate temporal information but do not ground their outputs spatially. The few approaches that combine temporal reasoning with spatial grounding are restricted to single-finding descriptions, leaving multi-finding reports with mixed change directions unaddressed. We present GRCD, a framework for grounded report generation from chest X-ray pairs in the multi-finding setting. We first construct a rigorously cleaned dataset of temporal chest X-ray pairs by identifying and correcting two systematic labelling errors in the source annotations. We then introduce a Region-Guided Change Token module that encodes per-region temporal change across anatomical structures and injects this signal into a language model through a dual-pathway strategy combining prepended spatial tokens with gated cross-attention. On a multi-finding test set, GRCD outperforms existing baselines on text generation and clinical accuracy metrics, with gains in change detection. Ablation studies confirm that the dual-pathway design outperforms either integration strategy in isolation on text and clinical metrics, and that region-level change encoding is necessary for multi-finding generation. Code is available at https://github.com/UTSA-VIRLab/GRCD

Causal representation learning seeks to extract high-level latent factors from low-level sensory data. Most existing methods rely on observational data and structural assumptions (e.g., conditional independence) to identify the latent factors. However, interventional data is prevalent across applications. Can interventional data facilitate causal representation learning? We explore this question in this paper. The key observation is that interventional data often carries geometric signatures of the latent factors' support (i.e. what values each latent can possibly take). For example, when the latent factors are causally connected, interventions can break the dependency between the intervened latents' support and their ancestors'. Leveraging this fact, we prove that the latent causal factors can be identified up to permutation and scaling given data from perfect do interventions. Moreover, we can achieve block affine identification, namely the estimated latent factors are only entangled with a few other latents if we have access to data from imperfect interventions. These results highlight the unique power of interventional data in causal representation learning; they can enable provable identification of latent factors without any assumptions about their distributions or dependency structure.

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our position is that causal inference specifies what constitutes a valid mapping from model activations to invariant high-level structures, the data or assumptions needed to achieve it, and the inferences it can support. Specifically, Pearl's causal hierarchy clarifies what an interpretability study can justify. Observations establish associations between model behaviour and internal components. Interventions (e.g., ablations or activation patching) support claims how these edits affect a behavioural metric (e.g., average change in token probabilities) over a set of prompts. However, counterfactual claims -- i.e., asking what the model output would have been for the same prompt under an unobserved intervention -- remain largely unverifiable without controlled supervision. We show how causal representation learning (CRL) operationalises this hierarchy, specifying which variables are recoverable from activations and under what assumptions. Together, these motivate a diagnostic framework that helps practitioners select methods and evaluations matching claims to evidence such that findings generalise.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Massive activations, residual-stream coordinates with magnitudes far larger than typical activations, are associated with attention sinks in transformers, but how their scale is regulated during training remains incompletely understood. Combining training-trajectory analyses and controlled interventions, we trace their emergence, growth, and consolidation. Sink-carrying channels vary across random seeds but stabilize early within each run. Over longer training, surrounding channels erode and the sink concentrates onto a few redundant carriers. Across ablations, gradient attenuation follows the sink token's collective root-mean-square magnitude rather than any single channel, making collective scale central to understanding their effects. Our central result is that weight decay causally controls the turnover of global activation scale. In controlled continuations, removing decay near the peak allows this scale to keep rising, whereas retaining it produces decline even at constant learning rate. We develop a balance model for the rise and peak of massive-activation magnitude, in which AdamW-preconditioned growth opposes weight decay. Sweeping the decay coefficient λ shifts peak timing approximately log-linearly and yields peak magnitudes scaling approximately as λ^{-1/2}, consistent with this balance. Optimizer measurements further show that preconditioning sustains the large-channel cohort against decay even when raw maintaining forces are too small to do so. Together, these findings connect the observed life cycle to scale-regulating training dynamics and establish weight decay as a training-time lever on activation magnitude.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision making across domains such as business engagement, medical treatment and policy making. However, research on causal discovery has evolved separately from inference methods, preventing straight-forward combination of methods from both fields. In this work, we develop Deep End-to-end Causal Inference (DECI), a single flow-based non-linear additive noise model that takes in observational data and can perform both causal discovery and inference, including conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. We provide a theoretical guarantee that DECI can recover the ground truth causal graph under standard causal discovery assumptions. Motivated by application impact, we extend this model to heterogeneous, mixed-type data with missing values, allowing for both continuous and discrete treatment decisions. Our results show the competitive performance of DECI when compared to relevant baselines for both causal discovery and (C)ATE estimation in over a thousand experiments on both synthetic datasets and causal machine learning benchmarks across data-types and levels of missingness.

Discovering causal structures from data is a challenging inference problem of fundamental importance in all areas of science. The appealing properties of neural networks have recently led to a surge of interest in differentiable neural network-based methods for learning causal structures from data. So far, differentiable causal discovery has focused on static datasets of observational or fixed interventional origin. In this work, we introduce an active intervention targeting (AIT) method which enables a quick identification of the underlying causal structure of the data-generating process. Our method significantly reduces the required number of interactions compared with random intervention targeting and is applicable for both discrete and continuous optimization formulations of learning the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) from data. We examine the proposed method across multiple frameworks in a wide range of settings and demonstrate superior performance on multiple benchmarks from simulated to real-world data.

Causal discovery from observational tabular data remains fundamentally challenging, primarily due to the heterogeneity of underlying causal mechanisms and the high-dimensional combinatorial search space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). In this paper, we propose DAG-FM, a novel foundation model architecture that amortizes causal discovery. Unlike direct matrix prediction, DAG-FM decomposes the causal discovery process into two auto-regressive stages using two specialized Transformer-based sub-modules: a leaf-node predictor and a parent-node predictor. To effectively model complex row-column interactions, we adopt a robust tabular interaction block to output feature-wise representations. Crucially, to handle diverse and unknown Functional Causal Model (FCM) assumptions in real-world scenarios, we introduce Mixture-of-Leaf-Experts (MoLE), allowing the model to dynamically route and adapt to identifiable mechanism families. Through an iterative inference algorithm, DAG-FM seamlessly extracts causal orderings and constructs valid DAGs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DAG-FM achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic benchmarks and complex real-world datasets, significantly outperforming traditional classical algorithms and recent foundation models in both accuracy and scalability.

Distilling pretrained video diffusion models into few-step autoregressive (AR) generators typically combines student initialization with distribution matching distillation (DMD). An intermediate AR teacher can provide causally compatible targets for ODE initialization. However, causally compatible targets alone do not ensure high-quality generation under a short sampling schedule. We analyze the posterior-mean predictions favored by direct latent regression and empirically find that causal ODE initialization alleviates blur but still leaves fine detail unresolved. To address this limitation, we propose Representation Forcing, which learns few-step causal initialization through representation-space supervision rather than intermediate-teacher trajectory regression. The student is trained with teacher forcing by comparing clean predictions and training targets through normalized features of a frozen video diffusion transformer. This phase reuses the synthetic videos generated by a bidirectional model for AR teacher training and replaces both teacher training and causal ODE distillation, without generating additional causal ODE trajectories. The subsequent asymmetric DMD procedure remains unchanged. Empirical results show that, at four sampling steps, RepForcing better preserves generation quality than intermediate-teacher-based initialization before DMD. After DMD, our four-step chunk-wise model improves VBench Total from 84.04 to 84.66 (+0.62 points) and VisionReward from 6.326 to 10.074 (+59.25%) over the reported causal-ODE-based baseline.

Autonomous agents built on language models (LMs) are showing increasing popularity in many fields, including scientific research. AI co-scientists aim to support or automate parts of the research process using these agents. A key component of empirical AI research is the design of ablation experiments. To this end, we introduce AblationBench, a benchmark suite for evaluating agents on ablation planning tasks in empirical AI research. It includes two tasks: AuthorAblation, which helps authors propose ablation experiments based on a method section and contains 83 instances, and ReviewerAblation, which helps reviewers find missing ablations in a full paper and contains 350 instances. For both tasks, we develop LM-based judges that serve as an automatic evaluation framework. Our experiments with frontier LMs show that these tasks remain challenging, with the best-performing LM system identifying only 29% of the original ablations on average. Lastly, we analyze the limitations of current LMs on these tasks, and find that chain-of-thought prompting outperforms the currently existing agent-based approach.

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

Understanding how deep learning models predict oncology patient risk can provide critical insights into disease progression, support clinical decision-making, and pave the way for trustworthy and data-driven precision medicine. Building on recent advances in the spatial modeling of the tumor microenvironment using graph neural networks, we present an explainable cell graph (xCG) approach for survival prediction. We validate our model on a public cohort of imaging mass cytometry (IMC) data for 416 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. We explain survival predictions in terms of known phenotypes on the cell level by computing risk attributions over cell graphs, for which we propose an efficient grid-based layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) method. Our ablation studies highlight the importance of incorporating the cancer stage and model ensembling to improve the quality of risk estimates. Our xCG method, together with the IMC data, is made publicly available to support further research.

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, K_d(490), to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings.

Causal discovery aims to recover directed causal relations from observational and interventional data, providing a basis for mechanistic understanding and reliable decision-making. Causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) seek to amortize this problem by mapping a dataset directly to a causal graph in a single forward pass, avoiding per-dataset testing, search, or optimization. However, existing CDFMs remain limited, often failing to consistently match strong classical methods, and we find that a key bottleneck is how causal pretraining tasks are constructed. Based on this observation, we propose TabCausal, a data-driven CDFM trained with broad causal pretraining over diverse graph priors, structural mechanisms, noise models, dimensions, sample sizes, and intervention regimes. A dynamic task construction strategy composes these causal environments into varied discovery tasks, enabling more transferable structural learning from observational and mixed-interventional data. On large-scale synthetic benchmarks, TabCausal achieves better macro-averaged performance than a diverse set of causal discovery baselines. To further bridge abstract synthetic generators and realistic causal reasoning scenarios, we introduce a protocol-guided and LLM-audited semantic causal environment benchmark, where domain-grounded SCMs generate interpretable observational and interventional datasets for out-of-distribution analysis. Across both synthetic and semantic environments, TabCausal demonstrates robust structure recovery, especially under interventional evidence, highlighting broad causal pretraining as a key ingredient for transferable amortized causal discovery.

Recent models for video generation have achieved remarkable progress and are now deployed in film, social media production, and advertising. Beyond their creative potential, such models also hold promise as world simulators for robotics and embodied decision making. Despite strong advances, however, current approaches still struggle to generate physically plausible object interactions and lack physics-grounded control mechanisms. To address this limitation, we introduce KineMask, an approach for physics-guided video generation that enables realistic rigid body control, interactions, and effects. Given a single image and a specified object velocity, our method generates videos with inferred motions and future object interactions. We propose a two-stage training strategy that gradually removes future motion supervision via object masks. Using this strategy we train video diffusion models (VDMs) on synthetic scenes of simple interactions and demonstrate significant improvements of object interactions in real scenes. Furthermore, KineMask integrates low-level motion control with high-level textual conditioning via predictive scene descriptions, leading to effective support for synthesis of complex dynamical phenomena. Extensive experiments show that KineMask achieves strong improvements over recent models of comparable size. Ablation studies further highlight the complementary roles of low- and high-level conditioning in VDMs. Our code, model, and data will be made publicly available.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

Bold claims about AI's role in science-from "AGI will cure all diseases" to promises of radically accelerated discovery-raise a central epistemic question: do large language models (LLMs) truly generate new knowledge, or do they merely remix memorized fragments? We propose unlearning-as-ablation as a falsifiable probe of constructive scientific discovery. The idea is to systematically remove a target result together with its forget-closure (supporting lemmas, paraphrases, and multi-hop entailments) and then evaluate whether the model can re-derive the result from only permitted axioms and tools. Success would indicate generative capability beyond recall; failure would expose current limits. Unlike prevailing motivations for unlearning-privacy, copyright, or safety-our framing repositions it as an epistemic probe for AI-for-Science. We outline a minimal pilot in mathematics and algorithms to illustrate feasibility, and sketch how the same approach could later be extended to domains such as physics or chemistry. This is a position paper: our contribution is conceptual and methodological, not empirical. We aim to stimulate discussion on how principled ablation tests could help distinguish models that reconstruct knowledge from those that merely retrieve it, and how such probes might guide the next generation of AI-for-Science benchmarks.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

Destructive single-cell measurements provide unpaired population snapshots rather than observations of the same cells across conditions. Local cell states and transition requests may also be insufficient to distinguish responses across source populations. We introduce TempoBridge, a common source-conditioned transport formulation for temporal, genetic, and chemical population transitions. Source cells initialize latent transport and provide a fixed empirical population summary. The velocity field receives this summary alongside the evolving cell state, flow time, and a structured transition descriptor. Minibatch optimal transport (OT) supplies couplings only for conditional flow-matching training paths; inference requires neither target expression nor OT computation. On held-out donors, TempoBridge achieves an Energy distance of 0.129 versus 0.144 for scGen. Genetic mean-expression L_2 error is 2.261 versus 3.156 for scGPT-scratch under Seen 2/2. On held-out compounds, condition-averaged drug-effect correlation is 0.598 versus 0.561 for the CellFlow adapter. Temporal ablations show higher mean distributional error after removing source context, replacing optimal transport with random pairing, or replacing flow matching with static residual regression. Together, these results demonstrate the predictive utility of a common source-conditioned transport formulation across held-out donors, gene combinations, and compounds.

Inferring causal structures from experimentation is a central task in many domains. For example, in biology, recent advances allow us to obtain single-cell expression data under multiple interventions such as drugs or gene knockouts. However, the targets of the interventions are often uncertain or unknown and the number of observations limited. As a result, standard causal discovery methods can no longer be reliably used. To fill this gap, we propose a Bayesian framework (BaCaDI) for discovering and reasoning about the causal structure that underlies data generated under various unknown experimental or interventional conditions. BaCaDI is fully differentiable, which allows us to infer the complex joint posterior over the intervention targets and the causal structure via efficient gradient-based variational inference. In experiments on synthetic causal discovery tasks and simulated gene-expression data, BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Frontier LLMs can navigate complex websites, but their cost and reliance on third-party APIs make local deployment impractical. We introduce Agent-as-Annotators, a framework that structures synthetic trajectory generation for web agents by analogy to human annotation roles, replacing the Task Designer, Annotator, and Supervisor with modular LLM components. Using Gemini 3 Pro as teacher, we generate 3,000 trajectories across six web environments and fine-tune a 9B-parameter student with pure supervised learning on the 2,322 that pass quality filtering. The resulting model achieves 41.5% on WebArena, surpassing closed-source models such as Claude 3.5 Sonnet (36.0%) and GPT-4o (31.5%) under the same evaluation protocol, and nearly doubling the previous best open-weight result (Go-Browse, 21.7%). Capabilities transfer to unseen environments, with an 18.2 percentage point gain on WorkArena L1 (an enterprise platform never seen during training) and consistent improvements across three additional benchmarks. Ablations confirm that each pipeline component contributes meaningfully, with Judge filtering, evaluation hints, and reasoning traces each accounting for measurable gains. These results demonstrate that structured trajectory synthesis from a single frontier teacher is sufficient to produce competitive, locally deployable web agents. Project page: https://agent-as-annotators.github.io

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.

Diffusion models can generate realistic videos, but existing methods rely on implicitly learning physical reasoning from large-scale text-video datasets, which is costly, difficult to scale, and still prone to producing implausible motions that violate fundamental physical laws. We introduce a training-free framework that improves physical plausibility at inference time by explicitly reasoning about implausibility and guiding the generation away from it. Specifically, we employ a lightweight physics-aware reasoning pipeline to construct counterfactual prompts that deliberately encode physics-violating behaviors. Then, we propose a novel Synchronized Decoupled Guidance (SDG) strategy, which leverages these prompts through synchronized directional normalization to counteract lagged suppression and trajectory-decoupled denoising to mitigate cumulative trajectory bias, ensuring that implausible content is suppressed immediately and consistently throughout denoising. Experiments across different physical domains show that our approach substantially enhances physical fidelity while maintaining photorealism, despite requiring no additional training. Ablation studies confirm the complementary effectiveness of both the physics-aware reasoning component and SDG. In particular, the aforementioned two designs of SDG are also individually validated to contribute critically to the suppression of implausible content and the overall gains in physical plausibility. This establishes a new and plug-and-play physics-aware paradigm for video generation.

Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines. Over the past decades, numerous algorithms have been developed to tackle this challenge through workflows tailored to the specific causal mechanisms underlying each type of dataset, demonstrating effectiveness across a wide range of applications. However, as the volume and heterogeneity of real-world data continue to grow, this dataset-specific approach inevitably leads to a fragmented, test-driven paradigm that struggles to scale to the demands of modern scientific discovery. To address this, we formulate the Causal Discovery Foundation Model (CDFM) as a unified, general-purpose framework for zero-shot structural inference. To ensure reliable generalization across unknown domains, we first investigate the theoretical boundaries of causal identifiability, revealing the indispensable role of causal prior mechanisms in this process. Building on these insights, we formulate a principled variational framework that treats unknown causal mechanisms as latent variables and mathematically decomposes the intractable marginal likelihood into distinct, tractable learning modules. The variational decomposition provides a conceptual design principle for the architecture design of CDFM, while comprehensive causal knowledge guides the large-scale synthesis of our pretraining data. By pretraining on a massive, highly diverse space of synthetic structural causal models, CDFM successfully internalizes complex statistical asymmetries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CDFM consistently outperforms traditional algorithms, driving a paradigm shift toward a general-purpose causal discovery foundation model.

Diffusion models have enabled remarkably high-quality medical image generation, yet it is challenging to enforce anatomical constraints in generated images. To this end, we propose a diffusion model-based method that supports anatomically-controllable medical image generation, by following a multi-class anatomical segmentation mask at each sampling step. We additionally introduce a random mask ablation training algorithm to enable conditioning on a selected combination of anatomical constraints while allowing flexibility in other anatomical areas. We compare our method ("SegGuidedDiff") to existing methods on breast MRI and abdominal/neck-to-pelvis CT datasets with a wide range of anatomical objects. Results show that our method reaches a new state-of-the-art in the faithfulness of generated images to input anatomical masks on both datasets, and is on par for general anatomical realism. Finally, our model also enjoys the extra benefit of being able to adjust the anatomical similarity of generated images to real images of choice through interpolation in its latent space. SegGuidedDiff has many applications, including cross-modality translation, and the generation of paired or counterfactual data. Our code is available at https://github.com/mazurowski-lab/segmentation-guided-diffusion.

LLM failures in causal reasoning, including sycophancy, rung collapse, and miscalibrated refusal, are well-documented, yet progress on remediation is slow because no benchmark enables systematic diagnosis. We introduce CausalT5K, a diagnostic benchmark of over 5,000 cases across 10 domains that tests three critical capabilities: (1) detecting rung collapse, where models answer interventional queries with associational evidence; (2) resisting sycophantic drift under adversarial pressure; and (3) generating Wise Refusals that specify missing information when evidence is underdetermined. Unlike synthetic benchmarks, CausalT5K embeds causal traps in realistic narratives and decomposes performance into Utility (sensitivity) and Safety (specificity), revealing failure modes invisible to aggregate accuracy. Developed through a rigorous human-machine collaborative pipeline involving 40 domain experts, iterative cross-validation cycles, and composite verification via rule-based, LLM, and human scoring, CausalT5K implements Pearl's Ladder of Causation as research infrastructure. Preliminary experiments reveal a Four-Quadrant Control Landscape where static audit policies universally fail, a finding that demonstrates CausalT5K's value for advancing trustworthy reasoning systems. Repository: https://github.com/genglongling/CausalT5kBench

ECG foundation models are increasingly popular due to their adaptability across various tasks. However, their clinical applicability is often limited by performance gaps compared to task-specific models, even after pre-training on large ECG datasets and fine-tuning on target data. This limitation is likely due to the lack of an effective post-training strategy. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective post-training approach to enhance ECG foundation models. We evaluate it on a publicly available Transformer-based foundation model. Experiments across multiple ECG tasks show that our method consistently outperforms baseline fine-tuning. On the PTB-XL benchmarks, it improves macro AUROC by 0.7%-8.9% and macro AUPRC by 23.3%-77.9%, also outperforming several recent state-of-the-art approaches, including task-specific and advanced architectures. Further analyses demonstrate improved training dynamics and data efficiency, with only 30% of the training data outperforming the baseline trained on the full dataset. Ablation studies highlight the importance of stochastic depth and preview linear probing. These findings underscore the potential of post-training strategies to improve ECG foundation models, and we hope this work will contribute to the continued development of foundation models in the ECG domain.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Existing 3D scene generation methods often struggle to model the complex logical dependencies and physical constraints between objects, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and realistic environments. We propose CausalStruct, a novel framework that embeds causal reasoning into 3D scene generation. Utilizing large language models (LLMs), We construct causal graphs where nodes represent objects and attributes, while edges encode causal dependencies and physical constraints. CausalStruct iteratively refines the scene layout by enforcing causal order to determine the placement order of objects and applies causal intervention to adjust the spatial configuration according to physics-driven constraints, ensuring consistency with textual descriptions and real-world dynamics. The refined scene causal graph informs subsequent optimization steps, employing a Proportional-Integral-Derivative(PID) controller to iteratively tune object scales and positions. Our method uses text or images to guide object placement and layout in 3D scenes, with 3D Gaussian Splatting and Score Distillation Sampling improving shape accuracy and rendering stability. Extensive experiments show that CausalStruct generates 3D scenes with enhanced logical coherence, realistic spatial interactions, and robust adaptability.

In long-horizon tasks, decision-relevant state is often scattered across an expanding trajectory, while the action agent must surface it and act. As trajectories grow, task requirements, environment facts, prior attempts, diagnoses, and open subgoals can be buried in the context window or pushed beyond it, failing to influence decisions when needed. We call this failure mode "behavioral state decay". We study memory as an active intervention mechanism rather than passive retrieval. A separate memory agent runs alongside an unmodified action agent, updating a structured memory bank from the recent trajectory and deciding whether to inject a memory-grounded reminder or remain silent. The module is plug-and-play with frontier action agents and existing agent harnesses. Across Terminal-Bench 2.0 and τ^2-Bench, it improves pass@1 for both weaker and stronger action agents, with gains of +8.3 pp on Terminal-Bench and +6.8 pp on τ^2-Bench. Ablations show that selective intervention outperforms passive bank exposure, always-on injection, advisor-only guidance, and general retrieval. As an early step toward open-weight memory policies, we train Qwen3.5-27B on SETA using SFT and GRPO, improving validation reward and achieving partial transfer to Terminal-Bench.

The causalimages R package enables causal inference with image and image sequence data, providing new tools for integrating novel data sources like satellite and bio-medical imagery into the study of cause and effect. One set of functions enables image-based causal inference analyses. For example, one key function decomposes treatment effect heterogeneity by images using an interpretable Bayesian framework. This allows for determining which types of images or image sequences are most responsive to interventions. A second modeling function allows researchers to control for confounding using images. The package also allows investigators to produce embeddings that serve as vector summaries of the image or video content. Finally, infrastructural functions are also provided, such as tools for writing large-scale image and image sequence data as sequentialized byte strings for more rapid image analysis. causalimages therefore opens new capabilities for causal inference in R, letting researchers use informative imagery in substantive analyses in a fast and accessible manner.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in healthcare, but their reliability is heavily influenced by user-driven factors such as question phrasing and the completeness of clinical information. In this study, we examined how misinformation framing, source authority, model persona, and omission of key clinical details affect the diagnostic accuracy and reliability of LLM outputs. We conducted two experiments: one introducing misleading external opinions with varying assertiveness (perturbation test), and another removing specific categories of patient information (ablation test). Using public datasets (MedQA and Medbullets), we evaluated proprietary models (GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Claude 3.5 Haiku, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Gemini 1.5 Flash) and open-source models (LLaMA 3 8B, LLaMA 3 Med42 8B, DeepSeek R1 8B). All models were vulnerable to user-driven misinformation, with proprietary models especially affected by definitive and authoritative language. Assertive tone had the greatest negative impact on accuracy. In the ablation test, omitting physical exam findings and lab results caused the most significant performance drop. Although proprietary models had higher baseline accuracy, their performance declined sharply under misinformation. These results highlight the need for well-structured prompts and complete clinical context. Users should avoid authoritative framing of misinformation and provide full clinical details, especially for complex cases.

We consider the problem of predicting how the likelihood of an outcome of interest for a patient changes over time as we observe more of the patient data. To solve this problem, we propose a supervised contrastive learning framework that learns an embedding representation for each time step of a patient time series. Our framework learns the embedding space to have the following properties: (1) nearby points in the embedding space have similar predicted class probabilities, (2) adjacent time steps of the same time series map to nearby points in the embedding space, and (3) time steps with very different raw feature vectors map to far apart regions of the embedding space. To achieve property (3), we employ a nearest neighbor pairing mechanism in the raw feature space. This mechanism also serves as an alternative to data augmentation, a key ingredient of contrastive learning, which lacks a standard procedure that is adequately realistic for clinical tabular data, to our knowledge. We demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in predicting mortality of septic patients (MIMIC-III dataset) and tracking progression of cognitive impairment (ADNI dataset). Our method also consistently recovers the correct synthetic dataset embedding structure across experiments, a feat not achieved by baselines. Our ablation experiments show the pivotal role of our nearest neighbor pairing.

Recent scientific advances require complex experiment design, necessitating the meticulous tuning of many experiment parameters. Tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE) is a widely used Bayesian optimization method in recent parameter tuning frameworks such as Hyperopt and Optuna. Despite its popularity, the roles of each control parameter in TPE and the algorithm intuition have not been discussed so far. The goal of this paper is to identify the roles of each control parameter and their impacts on parameter tuning based on the ablation studies using diverse benchmark datasets. The recommended setting concluded from the ablation studies is demonstrated to improve the performance of TPE. Our TPE implementation used in this paper is available at https://github.com/nabenabe0928/tpe/tree/single-opt. OptunaHub now provides our standalone TPE implementation at https://hub.optuna.org/samplers/tpe_tutorial/.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

Curating a large scale medical imaging dataset for machine learning applications is both time consuming and expensive. Balancing the workload between model development, data collection and annotations is difficult for machine learning practitioners, especially under time constraints. Causal analysis is often used in medicine and economics to gain insights about the effects of actions and policies. In this paper we explore the effect of dataset interventions on the output of image classification models. Through a causal approach we investigate the effects of the quantity and type of data we need to incorporate in a dataset to achieve better performance for specific subtasks. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the potential of causal analysis as a tool for resource optimization for developing medical imaging ML applications. We explore this concept with a synthetic dataset and an exemplary use-case for Diabetic Retinopathy image analysis.

Medical coding is essential for standardizing clinical data and communication but is often time-consuming and prone to errors. Traditional Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods struggle with automating coding due to the large label space, lengthy text inputs, and the absence of supporting evidence annotations that justify code selection. Recent advancements in Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) offer promising solutions to these challenges. In this work, we introduce MedCodER, a Generative AI framework for automatic medical coding that leverages extraction, retrieval, and re-ranking techniques as core components. MedCodER achieves a micro-F1 score of 0.60 on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code prediction, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we present a new dataset containing medical records annotated with disease diagnoses, ICD codes, and supporting evidence texts (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13308316). Ablation tests confirm that MedCodER's performance depends on the integration of each of its aforementioned components, as performance declines when these components are evaluated in isolation.

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in estimating causal effects, existing approaches often fall short in handling complex causal structures and lack adaptability across various causal scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel transformer-based method for causal inference that overcomes these challenges. The core innovation of our model lies in its integration of causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) directly into the attention mechanism, enabling it to accurately model the underlying causal structure. This allows for flexible estimation of both average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses existing methods in estimating causal effects across a wide range of scenarios. The flexibility and robustness of our model make it a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex causal inference problems.

Autoregressive video diffusion models hold promise for world simulation but are vulnerable to exposure bias arising from the train-test mismatch. While recent works address this via post-training, they typically rely on a bidirectional teacher model or online discriminator. To achieve an end-to-end solution, we introduce Resampling Forcing, a teacher-free framework that enables training autoregressive video models from scratch and at scale. Central to our approach is a self-resampling scheme that simulates inference-time model errors on history frames during training. Conditioned on these degraded histories, a sparse causal mask enforces temporal causality while enabling parallel training with frame-level diffusion loss. To facilitate efficient long-horizon generation, we further introduce history routing, a parameter-free mechanism that dynamically retrieves the top-k most relevant history frames for each query. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves performance comparable to distillation-based baselines while exhibiting superior temporal consistency on longer videos owing to native-length training.

Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions. A key aspect is temporal causal reasoning, causally reasoning about what prior inputs were necessary in causing an observed outcome. While large language models (LLMs) perform well at forward simulation, predicting outputs from inputs, they struggle to identify the minimal causal inputs of outcomes. To study this distinction, we define two tasks: trace simulation (SIM), which requires models to simulate system execution, and minimal causal attribution (MIN), which identifies the minimal set of inputs necessary for a given outcome. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verified benchmark for temporal causal reasoning, built from synthesized Mealy machines with controllable complexity and provably correct causal labels. Across frontier models, we observe that despite achieving up to 96\% accuracy on the SIM task, performance on the causal attribution MIN task drops below 25\%; models fail to reason about causal necessity. Over 94\% of causal errors involve overspecification, where models perform retrieval and list all possible inputs rather than reasoning about the minimal causal subset. Fine-tuning on TempoBench training corpus improves causal reasoning and generalizes better than math, code, or instruction training, with gains across standard reasoning benchmarks.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.