Daily Papers

Automated market maker (AMM) fee rules are often evaluated by liquidity-provider (LP) welfare, but that objective mixes fee revenue, adverse-selection loss (loss-versus-rebalancing, LVR), routing response, and liquidity supply. Fixed-fee Uniswap v3 history cannot separate these channels or identify counterfactual trader-facing dynamic-fee rules. Real fee-related variation nonetheless exists: the Uniswap protocol-fee switch cut LP take-rates with tier-differentiated intensity while leaving trader-facing fees unchanged. Using a pre-specified matched-overlap event-study difference-in-differences design, we estimate the liquidity-supply response to take-rate cuts, the kernel K_L that simulator-based fee-controller evaluations routinely freeze, while reconstructing treatment, event time, unit roles, and outcomes from public logs into a frozen, hash-checked panel before any estimate. We detect no large short-run average response in active liquidity or local depth; LP participation and composition, more precisely estimated, likewise show none, so the result is a non-detection at the design's resolution rather than a precise zero. Token-1 volume and native fee income fail the parallel-trends gate and are reported descriptively. A channel-admissibility audit delimits the estimand: the LP-side response K_L is design-based, while trader-facing dynamic-fee protection is a model-conditioned boundary, not a second estimand.

A number of methods have been proposed for causal effect estimation, yet few have demonstrated efficacy in handling data with complex structures, such as images. To fill this gap, we propose Causal Multi-task Deep Ensemble (CMDE), a novel framework that learns both shared and group-specific information from the study population. We provide proofs demonstrating equivalency of CDME to a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with a coregionalization kernel a priori. Compared to multi-task GP, CMDE efficiently handles high-dimensional and multi-modal covariates and provides pointwise uncertainty estimates of causal effects. We evaluate our method across various types of datasets and tasks and find that CMDE outperforms state-of-the-art methods on a majority of these tasks.

Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by providing a language for describing how training data influences predictions, through a causal framework. Importantly, our framework bypasses the need to retrain expensive models and allows us to estimate causal effects based on observational data alone. Addressing the problem of extracting factual knowledge from pretrained language models (PLMs), we focus on simple data statistics such as co-occurrence counts and show that these statistics do influence the predictions of PLMs, suggesting that such models rely on shallow heuristics. Our causal framework and our results demonstrate the importance of studying datasets and the benefits of causality for understanding NLP models.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

The increasing size and complexity of modern ML systems has improved their predictive capabilities but made their behavior harder to explain. Many techniques for model explanation have been developed in response, but we lack clear criteria for assessing these techniques. In this paper, we cast model explanation as the causal inference problem of estimating causal effects of real-world concepts on the output behavior of ML models given actual input data. We introduce CEBaB, a new benchmark dataset for assessing concept-based explanation methods in Natural Language Processing (NLP). CEBaB consists of short restaurant reviews with human-generated counterfactual reviews in which an aspect (food, noise, ambiance, service) of the dining experience was modified. Original and counterfactual reviews are annotated with multiply-validated sentiment ratings at the aspect-level and review-level. The rich structure of CEBaB allows us to go beyond input features to study the effects of abstract, real-world concepts on model behavior. We use CEBaB to compare the quality of a range of concept-based explanation methods covering different assumptions and conceptions of the problem, and we seek to establish natural metrics for comparative assessments of these methods.

This paper explores the use of unstructured, multimodal data, namely text and images, in causal inference and treatment effect estimation. We propose a neural network architecture that is adapted to the double machine learning (DML) framework, specifically the partially linear model. An additional contribution of our paper is a new method to generate a semi-synthetic dataset which can be used to evaluate the performance of causal effect estimation in the presence of text and images as confounders. The proposed methods and architectures are evaluated on the semi-synthetic dataset and compared to standard approaches, highlighting the potential benefit of using text and images directly in causal studies. Our findings have implications for researchers and practitioners in economics, marketing, finance, medicine and data science in general who are interested in estimating causal quantities using non-traditional data.

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

For a data-generating process for random variables that can be described with a linear structural equation model, we consider a situation in which (i) a set of covariates satisfying the back-door criterion cannot be observed or (ii) such a set can be observed, but standard statistical estimation methods cannot be applied to estimate causal effects because of multicollinearity/high-dimensional data problems. We propose a novel two-stage penalized regression approach, the penalized covariate-mediator selection operator (PCM Selector), to estimate the causal effects in such scenarios. Unlike existing penalized regression analyses, when a set of intermediate variables is available, PCM Selector provides a consistent or less biased estimator of the causal effect. In addition, PCM Selector provides a variable selection procedure for intermediate variables to obtain better estimation accuracy of the causal effects than does the back-door criterion.

Reasoning substantially improves language models' ability to solve difficult problems, but long reasoning traces make these gains expensive. Efficient reasoning should express useful analysis in fewer tokens by reducing repetition and text that adds little value to solving the problem. Progress in proprietary models motivates this goal, yet their hidden scratchpads limit direct study of how it is achieved. We investigate whether open-weight models can generate less verbose reasoning by changing the form of their own earlier thoughts, without retraining. Our intervention rewrites prior reasoning into compact state records before pending tool results are revealed, then compares continuations from original and compact histories. Across the tested models, accepted compact histories usually shorten future reasoning; a coding case study also shows less repeated verification after a shared candidate solution. In software-agent deployments, compaction can reduce total spending, although task quality and rewrite-inclusive time depend on the target and compressor. These findings identify reasoning history as one way to reduce future reasoning-token use and motivate model-specific compaction policies evaluated for both efficiency and retained capability.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Socio-economic causal effects depend heavily on their specific institutional and environmental context. A single intervention can produce opposite results depending on regulatory or market factors, contexts that are often complex and only partially observed. This poses a significant challenge for large language models (LLMs) in decision-support roles: can they distinguish structural causal mechanisms from surface-level correlations when the context changes? To address this, we introduce EconCausal, a large-scale benchmark comprising 10,490 context-annotated causal triplets extracted from 2,595 high-quality empirical studies published in top-tier economics and finance journals. Through a rigorous four-stage pipeline combining multi-run consensus, context refinement, and multi-critic filtering, we ensure each claim is grounded in peer-reviewed research with explicit identification strategies. Our evaluation reveals critical limitations in current LLMs' context-dependent reasoning. While top models achieve approximately 88 percent accuracy in fixed, explicit contexts, performance drops sharply under context shifts, with a 32.6 percentage point decline, and falls to 37 percent when misinformation is introduced. Furthermore, models exhibit severe over-commitment in ambiguous cases and struggle to recognize null effects, achieving only 9.5 percent accuracy, exposing a fundamental gap between pattern matching and genuine causal reasoning. These findings underscore substantial risks for high-stakes economic decision-making, where the cost of misinterpreting causality is high. The dataset and benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/econaikaist/econcausal-benchmark.

Estimating the causal effects of interventions is crucial to policy and decision-making, yet outcome data are often missing or subject to non-standard measurement error. While ground-truth outcomes can sometimes be obtained through costly data annotation or follow-up, budget constraints typically allow only a fraction of the dataset to be labeled. We address this challenge by optimizing which data points should be sampled for outcome information in order to improve efficiency in average treatment effect estimation with missing outcomes. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal batch sampling probability by minimizing the asymptotic variance of a doubly robust estimator for causal inference with missing outcomes. Motivated by our street outreach partners, we extend the framework to costly annotations of unstructured data, such as text or images in healthcare and social services. Across simulated and real-world datasets, including one of outreach interventions in homelessness services, our approach achieves substantially lower mean-squared error and recovers the AIPW estimate with fewer labels than existing baselines. In practice, we show that our method can match confidence intervals obtained with 361 random samples using only 90 optimized samples - saving 75% of the labeling budget.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

This paper studies the problem of performing a sequence of optimal interventions in a causal dynamical system where both the target variable of interest and the inputs evolve over time. This problem arises in a variety of domains e.g. system biology and operational research. Dynamic Causal Bayesian Optimization (DCBO) brings together ideas from sequential decision making, causal inference and Gaussian process (GP) emulation. DCBO is useful in scenarios where all causal effects in a graph are changing over time. At every time step DCBO identifies a local optimal intervention by integrating both observational and past interventional data collected from the system. We give theoretical results detailing how one can transfer interventional information across time steps and define a dynamic causal GP model which can be used to quantify uncertainty and find optimal interventions in practice. We demonstrate how DCBO identifies optimal interventions faster than competing approaches in multiple settings and applications.

Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

Estimation of causal effects is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the harder problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments on synthetic case studies, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph. We also perform ablation studies that elucidate Do-PFN's scalability and robustness across datasets with a variety of causal characteristics.

Reliable uncertainty quantification for causal effects is crucial in high-stakes applications, but remains challenging when the target is an entire function rather than a scalar estimand. In this work, we introduce a GP-based approach for uncertainty quantification of interventional functions. The central idea is to build on recent work representing interventional functions as an inner-product of observational functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), by constructing appropriate GP priors for such functions and inferring posteriors from observational data. Our approach yields closed-form posterior moments and tractable training and inference, while avoiding pathologies of previous GP prior constructions for RKHS functions. We further derive a practical procedure for posterior coverage calibration. Across synthetic benchmarks, causal Bayesian optimization tasks, and a large-scale real dataset, our method improves uncertainty quantification while remaining competitive in causal effect estimation.

Causal inference is the practice of estimating the effect of a treatment or intervention from data. It traditionally requires a bespoke pipeline for every new problem: first proposing a causal mechanism, selecting a compatible estimator, and finally training it. Meanwhile, across diverse settings and modalities, much of machine learning has shifted to the paradigm of foundation models: networks pretrained once at scale and applied to new tasks without fine-tuning. Causal foundation models (CFMs) bring this paradigm to causal inference. CFMs are pretrained neural networks that estimate causal quantities, such as the average treatment effect, on entirely new datasets using in-context learning without requiring model updates. This work provides a practical introduction to this emerging area. We summarize the necessary background in causal inference and machine learning before discussing CFMs. Throughout, we include example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

Despite the notable advancements of existing prompting methods, such as In-Context Learning and Chain-of-Thought for Large Language Models (LLMs), they still face challenges related to various biases. Traditional debiasing methods primarily focus on the model training stage, including approaches based on data augmentation and reweighting, yet they struggle with the complex biases inherent in LLMs. To address such limitations, the causal relationship behind the prompting methods is uncovered using a structural causal model, and a novel causal prompting method based on front-door adjustment is proposed to effectively mitigate LLMs biases. In specific, causal intervention is achieved by designing the prompts without accessing the parameters and logits of LLMs. The chain-of-thought generated by LLM is employed as the mediator variable and the causal effect between input prompts and output answers is calculated through front-door adjustment to mitigate model biases. Moreover, to accurately represent the chain-of-thoughts and estimate the causal effects, contrastive learning is used to fine-tune the encoder of chain-of-thought by aligning its space with that of the LLM. Experimental results show that the proposed causal prompting approach achieves excellent performance across seven natural language processing datasets on both open-source and closed-source LLMs.

Despite the remarkable advancements of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs), the mechanistic interpretability remains underexplored. Existing analyses are insufficiently comprehensive and lack examination covering visual and textual tokens, model components, and the full range of layers. This limitation restricts actionable insights to improve the faithfulness of model output and the development of downstream tasks, such as hallucination mitigation. To address this limitation, we introduce Fine-grained Cross-modal Causal Tracing (FCCT) framework, which systematically quantifies the causal effects on visual object perception. FCCT conducts fine-grained analysis covering the full range of visual and textual tokens, three core model components including multi-head self-attention (MHSA), feed-forward networks (FFNs), and hidden states, across all decoder layers. Our analysis is the first to demonstrate that MHSAs of the last token in middle layers play a critical role in aggregating cross-modal information, while FFNs exhibit a three-stage hierarchical progression for the storage and transfer of visual object representations. Building on these insights, we propose Intermediate Representation Injection (IRI), a training-free inference-time technique that reinforces visual object information flow by precisely intervening on cross-modal representations at specific components and layers, thereby enhancing perception and mitigating hallucination. Consistent improvements across five widely used benchmarks and LVLMs demonstrate IRI achieves state-of-the-art performance, while preserving inference speed and other foundational performance.

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated via flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.

There are many different causal effect estimators in causal inference. However, it is unclear how to choose between these estimators because there is no ground-truth for causal effects. A commonly used option is to simulate synthetic data, where the ground-truth is known. However, the best causal estimators on synthetic data are unlikely to be the best causal estimators on real data. An ideal benchmark for causal estimators would both (a) yield ground-truth values of the causal effects and (b) be representative of real data. Using flexible generative models, we provide a benchmark that both yields ground-truth and is realistic. Using this benchmark, we evaluate over 1500 different causal estimators and provide evidence that it is rational to choose hyperparameters for causal estimators using predictive metrics.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.

Concept-based explanations quantify how high-level concepts (e.g., gender or experience) influence model behavior, which is crucial for decision-makers in high-stakes domains. Recent work evaluates the faithfulness of such explanations by comparing them to reference causal effects estimated from counterfactuals. In practice, existing benchmarks rely on costly human-written counterfactuals that serve as an imperfect proxy. To address this, we introduce a framework for constructing datasets containing structural counterfactual pairs: LIBERTy (LLM-based Interventional Benchmark for Explainability with Reference Targets). LIBERTy is grounded in explicitly defined Structured Causal Models (SCMs) of the text generation, interventions on a concept propagate through the SCM until an LLM generates the counterfactual. We introduce three datasets (disease detection, CV screening, and workplace violence prediction) together with a new evaluation metric, order-faithfulness. Using them, we evaluate a wide range of methods across five models and identify substantial headroom for improving concept-based explanations. LIBERTy also enables systematic analysis of model sensitivity to interventions: we find that proprietary LLMs show markedly reduced sensitivity to demographic concepts, likely due to post-training mitigation. Overall, LIBERTy provides a much-needed benchmark for developing faithful explainability methods.

Despite the strong performance of large audio language models (LALMs) in various tasks, exactly how and where they integrate acoustic features with textual context remains unclear. We adapt causal tracing to investigate the internal information flow of LALMs during audio comprehension. By conducting layer-wise and token-wise analyses across DeSTA, Qwen, and Voxtral, we evaluate the causal effects of individual hidden states. Layer-wise analysis identifies different fusion strategies, from progressive integration in DeSTA to abrupt late-stage fusion in Qwen. Token-wise analysis shows that the final sequence token acts as an informational bottleneck where the network decisively retrieves relevant information from the audio. We also observe an attention-like query mechanism at intermediate token positions that triggers the model to pull task-relevant audio context. These findings provide a clear characterization of when and where multi-modal integration occurs within LALMs.

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV) are commonly used to eliminate confounding bias, including the bias caused by unobserved confounders, but they rely on the linearity assumption. Besides, the strict condition of unconfounded instruments posed on a standard IV is too strong to be practical. To address these challenging and practical problems of the standard IV method (linearity assumption and the strict condition), in this paper, we use a conditional IV (CIV) to relax the unconfounded instrument condition of standard IV and propose a non-linear CIV regression with Confounding Balancing Representation Learning, CBRL.CIV, for jointly eliminating the confounding bias from unobserved confounders and balancing the observed confounders, without the linearity assumption. We theoretically demonstrate the soundness of CBRL.CIV. Extensive experiments on synthetic and two real-world datasets show the competitive performance of CBRL.CIV against state-of-the-art IV-based estimators and superiority in dealing with the non-linear situation.

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in estimating causal effects, existing approaches often fall short in handling complex causal structures and lack adaptability across various causal scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel transformer-based method for causal inference that overcomes these challenges. The core innovation of our model lies in its integration of causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) directly into the attention mechanism, enabling it to accurately model the underlying causal structure. This allows for flexible estimation of both average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses existing methods in estimating causal effects across a wide range of scenarios. The flexibility and robustness of our model make it a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex causal inference problems.

Continual Learning for Named Entity Recognition (CL-NER) aims to learn a growing number of entity types over time from a stream of data. However, simply learning Other-Class in the same way as new entity types amplifies the catastrophic forgetting and leads to a substantial performance drop. The main cause behind this is that Other-Class samples usually contain old entity types, and the old knowledge in these Other-Class samples is not preserved properly. Thanks to the causal inference, we identify that the forgetting is caused by the missing causal effect from the old data. To this end, we propose a unified causal framework to retrieve the causality from both new entity types and Other-Class. Furthermore, we apply curriculum learning to mitigate the impact of label noise and introduce a self-adaptive weight for balancing the causal effects between new entity types and Other-Class. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art method by a large margin. Moreover, our method can be combined with the existing state-of-the-art methods to improve the performance in CL-NER

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference approach to study the causal effect of home field advantage in English Premier League. We develop a hierarchical causal model and show that both league level and team level causal effects are identifiable and can be conveniently estimated. We further develop an inference procedure for the proposed estimators and demonstrate its excellent numerical performance via simulation studies. We implement our method on the 2020-21 English Premier League data and assess the causal effect of home advantage on eleven summary statistics that measure the offensive and defensive performance and referee bias. We find that the home field advantage resides more heavily in offensive statistics than it does in defensive or referee statistics. We also find evidence that teams that had lower rankings retain a higher home field advantage.

The wide-scale use of sparse autoencoders (SAEs) as interpretability tools is limited by inconsistent links between SAE features and model behavior. Features with clear activation descriptions may have weak or unexpected causal effects; steering can vary across prompts or oppose the intended direction; and activation-based feature selection can miss features that produce the desired output change. Prior work has studied feature geometry inside the model, where features are computed. We instead study the geometry of changes in model logits caused by feature interventions. We introduce Feature-Effect Geometry Analysis (FEGA), an unsupervised framework that removes the same active SAE feature across contexts and analyzes the resulting cloud of logit changes. Across SAE variants, consistent one-dimensional effects are rare: few features behave like reusable directions. To interpret this variation, we distinguish value-like features, tied to static information such as factual attributes, from pointer-like features, associated with context-dependent operations. Value-like features more often exhibit structured, low-dimensional effects, although these effects typically span several directions. Pointer-like features, by contrast, predominantly exhibit diffuse effects. Our results show that a feature can be interpretable and causally relevant without providing a stable direction for steering.

Quantifying the causal influence of input features within neural networks has become a topic of increasing interest. Existing approaches typically assess direct, indirect, and total causal effects. This work treats NNs as structural causal models (SCMs) and extends our focus to include intrinsic causal contributions (ICC). We propose an identifiable generative post-hoc framework for quantifying ICC. We also draw a relationship between ICC and Sobol' indices. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ICC generates more intuitive and reliable explanations compared to existing global explanation techniques.

Causal generative models provide a principled framework for answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries from observational data. However, many deep causal models rely on highly expressive architectures with opaque mechanisms, limiting auditability in high-stakes domains. We propose KaCGM, a causal generative model for mixed-type tabular data where each structural equation is parameterized by a Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN). This decomposition enables direct inspection of learned causal mechanisms, including symbolic approximations and visualization of parent--child relationships, while preserving query-agnostic generative semantics. We introduce a validation pipeline based on distributional matching and independence diagnostics of inferred exogenous variables, allowing assessment using observational data alone. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks show competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. A real-world cardiovascular case study further demonstrates the extraction of simplified structural equations and interpretable causal effects. These results suggest that expressive causal generative modeling and functional transparency can be achieved jointly, supporting trustworthy deployment in tabular decision-making settings. Code: https://github.com/aalmodovares/kacgm

For many real-world systems, causal ground truth is difficult to obtain, making claims about causal effects hard to assess. We develop methods for evaluating collections of n{2} bivariate causal statements over a set of n variables. In the setting of acyclic linear statements, any such collection can be extended to a unique multivariate causal model, but we argue that this induced model is implausible if it imposes substantial additional confounding to explain observed correlations. We introduce a compatibility score that quantifies this notion of plausibility, notably without relying on the faithfulness assumption. Additionally, we define an incompatibility score for purely graphical bivariate causal statements, based on global consistency constraints that are derived from acyclicity and faithfulness assumptions. We give theoretical and empirical evidence that both scores can successfully distinguish correct from incorrect causal statements in generic settings. Moreover, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our methods by analyzing causal claims made by large language models. Our work aims to provide a foundation for assessing the reliability of causal information derived from human experts or artificial intelligence in settings where alternative forms of validation are unavailable.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Towards intelligent image editing, object removal should eliminate both the target object and its causal visual artifacts, such as shadows and reflections. However, existing image appearance-based methods either follow strictly mask-aligned training and fail to remove these causal effects which are not explicitly masked, or adopt loosely mask-aligned strategies that lack controllability and may unintentionally over-erase other objects. We identify that these limitations stem from ignoring the causal relationship between an object's geometry presence and its visual effects. To address this limitation, we propose a geometry-aware two-stage framework that decouples object removal into (1) geometry removal and (2) appearance rendering. In the first stage, we remove the object directly from the geometry (e.g., depth) using strictly mask-aligned supervision, enabling structure-aware editing with strong geometric constraints. In the second stage, we render a photorealistic RGB image conditioned on the updated geometry, where causal visual effects are considered implicitly as a result of the modified 3D geometry. To guide learning in the geometry removal stage, we introduce a preference-driven objective based on positive and negative sample pairs, encouraging the model to remove objects as well as their causal visual artifacts while avoiding new structural insertions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in removing both objects and their associated artifacts on two popular benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/buxiangzhiren/GeoRemover.

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.

Fair machine learning aims to prevent discrimination against individuals or sub-populations based on sensitive attributes such as gender and race. In recent years, causal inference methods have been increasingly used in fair machine learning to measure unfairness by causal effects. However, current methods assume that the true causal graph is given, which is often not true in real-world applications. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a framework for achieving causal fairness based on the notion of interventions when the true causal graph is partially known. The proposed approach involves modeling fair prediction using a Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (PDAG), specifically, a class of causal DAGs that can be learned from observational data combined with domain knowledge. The PDAG is used to measure causal fairness, and a constrained optimization problem is formulated to balance between fairness and accuracy. Results on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such underspecified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.

This study presents PARROT (Persuasion and Agreement Robustness Rating of Output Truth), a robustness focused framework designed to measure the degradation in accuracy that occurs under social pressure exerted on users through authority and persuasion in large language models (LLMs) the phenomenon of sycophancy (excessive conformity). PARROT (i) isolates causal effects by comparing the neutral version of the same question with an authoritatively false version using a double-blind evaluation, (ii) quantifies confidence shifts toward the correct and imposed false responses using log-likelihood-based calibration tracking, and (iii) systematically classifies failure modes (e.g., robust correct, sycophantic agreement, reinforced error, stubborn error, self-correction, etc.) using an eight-state behavioral taxonomy. We evaluated 22 models using 1,302 MMLU-style multiple-choice questions across 13 domains and domain-specific authority templates. Findings show marked heterogeneity: advanced models (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4.1, Claude Sonnet 4.5) exhibit low "follow rates" (leq 11%, GPT-5: 4\%) and minimal accuracy loss, while older/smaller models show severe epistemic collapse (GPT-4: 80\%, Qwen 2.5-1.5B: 94\%). The danger is not limited to response changes; weak models reduce confidence in the correct response while increasing confidence in the imposed incorrect response. While international law and global knowledge at the domain level exhibit high fragility, elementary mathematics is relatively resilient. Consequently, we argue that the goal of "resistance to overfitting pressure" should be addressed as a primary objective alongside accuracy, harm avoidance, and privacy for safe deployment in the real world.

VQA models may tend to rely on language bias as a shortcut and thus fail to sufficiently learn the multi-modal knowledge from both vision and language. Recent debiasing methods proposed to exclude the language prior during inference. However, they fail to disentangle the "good" language context and "bad" language bias from the whole. In this paper, we investigate how to mitigate language bias in VQA. Motivated by causal effects, we proposed a novel counterfactual inference framework, which enables us to capture the language bias as the direct causal effect of questions on answers and reduce the language bias by subtracting the direct language effect from the total causal effect. Experiments demonstrate that our proposed counterfactual inference framework 1) is general to various VQA backbones and fusion strategies, 2) achieves competitive performance on the language-bias sensitive VQA-CP dataset while performs robustly on the balanced VQA v2 dataset without any augmented data. The code is available at https://github.com/yuleiniu/cfvqa.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) can process interleaved text and multiple images in a single context, but how they internally identify the image relevant to a question remains poorly understood. We study this grounding step as in-context image retrieval and introduce ICIR-MCQ, a controlled probe for head-level analysis of image retrieval. Using each head's attention mass over image-token spans, we first identify sparse pointer heads that reliably point to the target image. These heads transfer beyond the probe: a single pointer head is competitive with external vision-language retrievers on a naturalistic multi-image retrieval benchmark, showing that LVLMs contain a strong internal image retrieval signal. Attention alone, however, shows where a head reads from, not what its output passes on to later layers, so we introduce a complementary output-side analysis. For each head, we train a lightweight image retriever on its value-weighted output and use it to identify writer heads, whose outputs contain enough information to identify the target image. Surprisingly, the pointer and writer criteria select substantially different head sets, with only 35 to 47 heads overlapping among the top-100 heads under each criterion. Targeted set-partition ablations show that the heads most important for standard multi-image inference are concentrated in this pointer-writer intersection, while heads selected by only one criterion show less consistent separation from random-head controls. The most consistent causal effects arise from heads selected by both the attention-based pointer and output-side writer criteria. Code and data: https://github.com/parkquasar/Image-Retrieval-Heads.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

Understanding food recipe requires anticipating the implicit causal effects of cooking actions, such that the recipe can be converted into a graph describing the temporal workflow of the recipe. This is a non-trivial task that involves common-sense reasoning. However, existing efforts rely on hand-crafted features to extract the workflow graph from recipes due to the lack of large-scale labeled datasets. Moreover, they fail to utilize the cooking images, which constitute an important part of food recipes. In this paper, we build MM-ReS, the first large-scale dataset for cooking workflow construction, consisting of 9,850 recipes with human-labeled workflow graphs. Cooking steps are multi-modal, featuring both text instructions and cooking images. We then propose a neural encoder-decoder model that utilizes both visual and textual information to construct the cooking workflow, which achieved over 20% performance gain over existing hand-crafted baselines.

To control the behavior of language models, steering methods attempt to ensure that outputs of the model satisfy specific pre-defined properties. Adding steering vectors to the model is a promising method of model control that is easier than finetuning, and may be more robust than prompting. However, it can be difficult to anticipate the effects of steering vectors produced by almost all existing methods, such as CAA (Panickssery et al., 2024) or the direct use of SAE latents (Templeton et al., 2024). In our work, we address this issue by using SAEs to measure the effects of steering vectors, giving us a method that can be used to understand the causal effect of any steering vector intervention. We use this method for measuring causal effects to develop an improved steering method, SAE-Targeted Steering (SAE-TS), which finds steering vectors to target specific SAE features while minimizing unintended side effects. We show that overall, SAE-TS balances steering effects with coherence better than CAA and SAE feature steering, when evaluated on a range of tasks.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

We present a new estimator for causal effects with panel data that builds on insights behind the widely used difference in differences and synthetic control methods. Relative to these methods we find, both theoretically and empirically, that this "synthetic difference in differences" estimator has desirable robustness properties, and that it performs well in settings where the conventional estimators are commonly used in practice. We study the asymptotic behavior of the estimator when the systematic part of the outcome model includes latent unit factors interacted with latent time factors, and we present conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality.

The ability of large language models (LLMs) to follow instructions is crucial for their practical applications, yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. This paper presents a novel framework that leverages sparse autoencoders (SAE) to interpret how instruction following works in these models. We demonstrate how the features we identify can effectively steer model outputs to align with given instructions. Through analysis of SAE latent activations, we identify specific latents responsible for instruction following behavior. Our findings reveal that instruction following capabilities are encoded by a distinct set of instruction-relevant SAE latents. These latents both show semantic proximity to relevant instructions and demonstrate causal effects on model behavior. Our research highlights several crucial factors for achieving effective steering performance: precise feature identification, the role of final layer, and optimal instruction positioning. Additionally, we demonstrate that our methodology scales effectively across SAEs and LLMs of varying sizes.

Automated interpretability pipelines generate natural language descriptions for the concepts represented by features in large language models (LLMs), such as plants or the first word in a sentence. These descriptions are derived using inputs that activate the feature, which may be a dimension or a direction in the model's representation space. However, identifying activating inputs is costly, and the mechanistic role of a feature in model behavior is determined both by how inputs cause a feature to activate and by how feature activation affects outputs. Using steering evaluations, we reveal that current pipelines provide descriptions that fail to capture the causal effect of the feature on outputs. To fix this, we propose efficient, output-centric methods for automatically generating feature descriptions. These methods use the tokens weighted higher after feature stimulation or the highest weight tokens after applying the vocabulary "unembedding" head directly to the feature. Our output-centric descriptions better capture the causal effect of a feature on model outputs than input-centric descriptions, but combining the two leads to the best performance on both input and output evaluations. Lastly, we show that output-centric descriptions can be used to find inputs that activate features previously thought to be "dead".

Counterspeech -- speech that opposes hate speech -- has gained significant attention recently as a strategy to reduce hate on social media. While previous studies suggest that counterspeech can somewhat reduce hate speech, little is known about its effects on participation in online hate communities, nor which counterspeech tactics reduce harmful behavior. We begin to address these gaps by identifying 25 large hate communities ("subreddits") within Reddit and analyzing the effect of counterspeech on newcomers within these communities. We first construct a new public dataset of carefully annotated counterspeech and non-counterspeech comments within these subreddits. We use this dataset to train a state-of-the-art counterspeech detection model. Next, we use matching to evaluate the causal effects of hostile and non-hostile counterspeech on the engagement of newcomers in hate subreddits. We find that, while non-hostile counterspeech is ineffective at keeping users from fully disengaging from these hate subreddits, a single hostile counterspeech comment substantially reduces both future likelihood of engagement. While offering nuance to the understanding of counterspeech efficacy, these results a) leave unanswered the question of whether hostile counterspeech dissuades newcomers from participation in online hate writ large, or merely drives them into less-moderated and more extreme hate communities, and b) raises ethical considerations about hostile counterspeech, which is both comparatively common and might exacerbate rather than mitigate the net level of antagonism in society. These findings underscore the importance of future work to improve counterspeech tactics and minimize unintended harm.

Knowing domain rules does not guarantee applying them to a case. We study this distinction in traditional Chinese Bazi through 3,000 Chinese multiple-choice questions spanning 14 Theory and 11 Case categories. Six endpoint systems are evaluated, with primary results reported on a 2,492-item model-informed refinement. Theory accuracy exceeds Case accuracy for every system, and gaps of 16.60-29.56 percentage points remain when invalid responses are excluded. The contrast is more specific than a general case-reasoning deficit. Across six systems, Twelve Stages and Nayin reach mean accuracies of 89.10% and 88.62%, while Shensha Basics reaches 75.96%. Within Case, Luck Pillars averages 84.62%, but Career and Family Relations average only 36.98% and 38.19%. Overall rankings also conceal different category strengths. On the original 3,000 items, paired DeepSeek native/disabled comparisons associate native configurations with Theory gains of 6.53 and 12.20 points for Flash and Pro, respectively; Case changes are -3.67 and +1.27 points. These are provider-configuration associations, not isolated causal effects of reasoning. The results motivate task-specific evaluation of cultural-domain applications rather than reliance on aggregate knowledge scores. The benchmark measures agreement with a model-generated, model-verified answer key, not real-world predictive validity. Final-set results are post-selection descriptions, and incomplete provenance and expert validation constrain their interpretation.

Large language models (LLMs) offer an inexpensive yet powerful way to annotate text, but are often inconsistent when compared with experts. These errors can bias downstream estimates of population parameters such as regression coefficients and causal effects. To mitigate this bias, researchers have developed debiasing methods such as Design-based Supervised Learning (DSL) and Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI), which promise valid estimation by combining LLM annotations with a limited number of expensive expert annotations. Although these methods produce consistent estimates under theoretical assumptions, it is unknown how they compare in finite samples of sizes encountered in applied research. We make two contributions: First, we study how each method's performance scales with the number of expert annotations, highlighting regimes where LLM bias or limited expert labels significantly affect results. Second, we compare DSL and PPI across a range of tasks, finding that although both achieve low bias with large datasets, DSL often outperforms PPI on bias reduction and empirical efficiency, but its performance is less consistent across datasets. Our findings indicate that there is a bias-variance tradeoff at the level of debiasing methods, calling for more research on developing metrics for quantifying their efficiency in finite samples.

We investigate the mechanisms of factual recall in the Mamba state space model. Our work is inspired by previous findings in autoregressive transformer language models suggesting that their knowledge recall is localized to particular modules at specific token locations; we therefore ask whether factual recall in Mamba can be similarly localized. To investigate this, we conduct four lines of experiments on Mamba. First, we apply causal tracing or interchange interventions to localize key components inside Mamba that are responsible for recalling facts, revealing that specific components within middle layers show strong causal effects at the last token of the subject, while the causal effect of intervening on later layers is most pronounced at the last token of the prompt, matching previous findings on autoregressive transformers. Second, we show that rank-one model editing methods can successfully insert facts at specific locations, again resembling findings on transformer models. Third, we examine the linearity of Mamba's representations of factual relations. Finally we adapt attention-knockout techniques to Mamba to dissect information flow during factual recall. We compare Mamba directly to a similar-sized transformer and conclude that despite significant differences in architectural approach, when it comes to factual recall, the two architectures share many similarities.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

Recent advancements in recommender systems have focused on leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve user preference modeling, yielding promising outcomes. However, current LLM-based approaches struggle to fully leverage user behavior sequences, resulting in suboptimal preference modeling for personalized recommendations. In this study, we propose a novel Counterfactual Fine-Tuning (CFT) method to address this issue by explicitly emphasizing the role of behavior sequences when generating recommendations. Specifically, we employ counterfactual reasoning to identify the causal effects of behavior sequences on model output and introduce a task that directly fits the ground-truth labels based on these effects, achieving the goal of explicit emphasis. Additionally, we develop a token-level weighting mechanism to adjust the emphasis strength for different item tokens, reflecting the diminishing influence of behavior sequences from earlier to later tokens during predicting an item. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CFT effectively improves behavior sequence modeling. Our codes are available at https://github.com/itsmeyjt/CFT.

Treatment effect estimation is of high-importance for both researchers and practitioners across many scientific and industrial domains. The abundance of observational data makes them increasingly used by researchers for the estimation of causal effects. However, these data suffer from biases, from several weaknesses, leading to inaccurate causal effect estimations, if not handled properly. Therefore, several machine learning techniques have been proposed, most of them focusing on leveraging the predictive power of neural network models to attain more precise estimation of causal effects. In this work, we propose a new methodology, named Nearest Neighboring Information for Causal Inference (NNCI), for integrating valuable nearest neighboring information on neural network-based models for estimating treatment effects. The proposed NNCI methodology is applied to some of the most well established neural network-based models for treatment effect estimation with the use of observational data. Numerical experiments and analysis provide empirical and statistical evidence that the integration of NNCI with state-of-the-art neural network models leads to considerably improved treatment effect estimations on a variety of well-known challenging benchmarks.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

Recent advances in embodied AI have established robot foundation models (RFMs) as the dominant approach for generalist robotic systems to date. By leveraging imitation learning on extensive robot demonstrations, RFMs have achieved impressive capabilities in mapping visual observations and language instructions to continuous robotic actions. However, current RFMs lack an inherent ability to reason about physical dynamics and the causal effects of robot behaviors on the 3D physical world. This creates a fundamental mismatch between 2D-centric visual perception and 3D-centric embodied interaction, severely limiting the generalization ability of RFMs in real-world tasks.To address this gap, we present WSA_1, a novel RFM built upon proposed 3D-Centric World-Spatial-Action modeling paradigm. It not only learns 3D world-aware visual thought for future robot behaviors, but also models mutual constraints between 3D world state transitions and robotic actions to enhance behavior generalization. Notably, WSA_1 achieves highly data-efficient pre-training with 6k hours of expert demonstration data (only 1k hours from real robot), while delivering competitive manipulation performance (93% success rate) on RoboTwin2.0 simulation benchmark and achieving +20% average boosted performance over state-of-the-art RFMs on real-world robot control tasks. These results reveal that generalizable RFM can be attained without large-scale real robot data when paired with 3D-centric world-action joint modeling, which offers a practical and affordable pathway to generalist robotic systems.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies translate language and visual inputs into robot actions, where their hidden representations directly shape closed-loop behavior. However, mechanistic interpretability tools from language and vision-language models do not transfer cleanly to VLAs: outputs are robot actions rather than human-readable tokens, and interventions can only be tested via expensive closed-loop rollouts. We propose an event-grounded interpretability pipeline that anchors SAE feature analysis to behavioral events rather than text contexts. End-effector keyframes are clustered within each task using visual, state, and temporal cues, linking SAE features to behaviorally salient events and, via optional VLM annotations, to semantic context. To our knowledge, our pipeline is among the first to ground SAE-based VLA analysis in closed-loop behavioral events. Across two simulation architectures and a real-robot study, event-grounded ranking yields the strongest causal effects on OpenVLA and transfers to the continuous action chunks of π_{0.5}. SAE is a sparse but imperfect intervention basis: usability varies with architecture and intervention site, and aggressive intervention reveals safety and interpretability limits. Overall, event-grounded SAE analysis emerges as a practical starting point for behavior-anchored VLA interpretability, motivating future work on SAE features beyond action-aligned coordinates, finer-grained closed-loop evaluation, and safe interventions for high-stakes VLA deployments. Code is available at https://github.com/xc-j/Event-SAE.

Vision-Language-Action models are designed to generalise across environments and task descriptions, raising the question of whether their action generation actually depends on the language instruction, or whether they largely rely on visual cues and superficial correlations. Robustness to variance in the visual and linguistic observation space is critical for real-world deployment, yet VLAs lack explicit grounding modules and instead rely on the intrinsic language grounding capabilities of their Vision-Language model backbones. For this reason, we conduct a controlled mechanistic interpretability study on the language grounding capabilities of two state-of-the-art Vision-Language-Action models, π_{0.5} and GR00T N1.7, by applying activation and attribution patching to the residual stream of the action generation modules. We systematically corrupt the task instruction of input samples of the LIBERO benchmark following five strategies: synonym replacement, semantic scaling, directional corruption, random object substitution, and empty string. Our experiments find that both models are comparatively insensitive to abstract rephrasing and to referencing non-existent objects, but react strongly to empty task descriptions and, especially, to directional language. During action generation, this sensitivity is concentrated in different loci for each model: mainly in the early, periodic cross-attention layers for GR00T N1.7, versus distributed across the earliest and selected later layers for π_{0.5}. For GR00T N1.7, directional perturbations drive some of the largest causal effects while leaving the internal representational geometry comparatively unchanged, a dissociation we do not observe clearly for π_{0.5}. Finally, the reliability of attribution patching is model-dependent: it closely tracks activation patching for GR00T N1.7 but not for π_{0.5}.

Multilingual large language models (mLLMs) contain a small fraction of feed-forward neurons that are sensitive to particular languages, commonly termed language-specific neurons. Existing work measures language specificity using the entropy of each neuron's language-wise probabilities of being active, where a neuron is considered active when its activation value is positive. However, this approach may not fully capture the multilingual nature of mLLMs, where language representations are distributional and mutually related. We propose Distribution-aware Language Neuron selection, which leverages pairwise relationships between per-language activation distributions over the full activation range, including negative values. Specifically, we quantify each neuron's language specificity by clustering languages using pairwise overlap coefficients between their activation distributions. Across two mLLMs and two held-out corpora, our identifier more effectively isolates language-specific causal effects, yielding up to 4.9times higher on-target language damage per neuron while preserving off-target language performance.

Molecular property prediction is becoming one of the major applications of graph learning in Web-based services, e.g., online protein structure prediction and drug discovery. A key challenge arises in few-shot scenarios, where only a few labeled molecules are available for predicting unseen properties. Recently, several studies have used in-context learning to capture relationships among molecules and properties, but they face two limitations in: (1) exploiting prior knowledge of functional groups that are causally linked to properties and (2) identifying key substructures directly correlated with properties. We propose CaMol, a context-aware graph causality inference framework, to address these challenges by using a causal inference perspective, assuming that each molecule consists of a latent causal structure that determines a specific property. First, we introduce a context graph that encodes chemical knowledge by linking functional groups, molecules, and properties to guide the discovery of causal substructures. Second, we propose a learnable atom masking strategy to disentangle causal substructures from confounding ones. Third, we introduce a distribution intervener that applies backdoor adjustment by combining causal substructures with chemically grounded confounders, disentangling causal effects from real-world chemical variations. Experiments on diverse molecular datasets showed that CaMol achieved superior accuracy and sample efficiency in few-shot tasks, showing its generalizability to unseen properties. Also, the discovered causal substructures were strongly aligned with chemical knowledge about functional groups, supporting the model interpretability.

We report the presence of a simple neural mechanism that represents an input-output function as a vector within autoregressive transformer language models (LMs). Using causal mediation analysis on a diverse range of in-context-learning (ICL) tasks, we find that a small number attention heads transport a compact representation of the demonstrated task, which we call a function vector (FV). FVs are robust to changes in context, i.e., they trigger execution of the task on inputs such as zero-shot and natural text settings that do not resemble the ICL contexts from which they are collected. We test FVs across a range of tasks, models, and layers and find strong causal effects across settings in middle layers. We investigate the internal structure of FVs and find while that they often contain information that encodes the output space of the function, this information alone is not sufficient to reconstruct an FV. Finally, we test semantic vector composition in FVs, and find that to some extent they can be summed to create vectors that trigger new complex tasks. Taken together, our findings suggest that LLMs contain internal abstractions of general-purpose functions that can be invoked in a variety of contexts.

Dynamic graph learning methods have recently emerged as powerful tools for modelling relational data evolving through time. However, despite extensive benchmarking efforts, it remains unclear whether current Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) effectively capture core temporal patterns such as periodicity, cause-and-effect, and long-range dependencies. In this work, we introduce the Temporal Graph Reasoning Benchmark (T-GRAB), a comprehensive set of synthetic tasks designed to systematically probe the capabilities of TGNNs to reason across time. T-GRAB provides controlled, interpretable tasks that isolate key temporal skills: counting/memorizing periodic repetitions, inferring delayed causal effects, and capturing long-range dependencies over both spatial and temporal dimensions. We evaluate 11 temporal graph learning methods on these tasks, revealing fundamental shortcomings in their ability to generalize temporal patterns. Our findings offer actionable insights into the limitations of current models, highlight challenges hidden by traditional real-world benchmarks, and motivate the development of architectures with stronger temporal reasoning abilities. The code for T-GRAB can be found at: https://github.com/alirezadizaji/T-GRAB.

Recent Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in robotic planning. However, they typically function as semantic reasoners, lacking an intrinsic understanding of the specific robot's physical capabilities. This limitation is particularly critical in interactive navigation, where robots must actively modify cluttered environments to create traversable paths. Existing VLM-based navigators are predominantly confined to passive obstacle avoidance, failing to reason about when and how to interact with objects to clear blocked paths. To bridge this gap, we propose Counterfactual Interactive Navigation via Skill-aware VLM (CoINS), a hierarchical framework that integrates skill-aware reasoning and robust low-level execution. Specifically, we fine-tune a VLM, named InterNav-VLM, which incorporates skill affordance and concrete constraint parameters into the input context and grounds them into a metric-scale environmental representation. By internalizing the logic of counterfactual reasoning through fine-tuning on the proposed InterNav dataset, the model learns to implicitly evaluate the causal effects of object removal on navigation connectivity, thereby determining interaction necessity and target selection. To execute the generated high-level plans, we develop a comprehensive skill library through reinforcement learning, specifically introducing traversability-oriented strategies to manipulate diverse objects for path clearance. A systematic benchmark in Isaac Sim is proposed to evaluate both the reasoning and execution aspects of interactive navigation. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments demonstrate that CoINS significantly outperforms representative baselines, achieving a 17\% higher overall success rate and over 80\% improvement in complex long-horizon scenarios compared to the best-performing baseline

Real-world embodied tasks, from everyday activities to professional procedures, require agents to act under physical constraints while tracking evolving object and task states. Tool use sits at the heart of such tasks, as many everyday and professional activities are tool-mediated. Understanding them requires reasoning about affordances, hand-tool-object geometry, procedural progress, and causal effects on target objects. Yet despite strong performance on perception-oriented video tasks such as captioning and general video QA, current multimodal video models remain limited in this form of tool-centric embodied reasoning. Progress in this direction has been limited by the lack of real-world egocentric data and diagnostic benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce EgoTools, the first comprehensive suite for egocentric tool-use understanding. It consists of two complementary components: EgoTools-Data, a large-scale corpus of 100 hours of tool-centric egocentric recordings with synchronized audio, dense captions, reasoning-heavy narrations, and supplementary 3D information; and EgoTools-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark of 1,000 QA pairs across four tracks that cover tool-use understanding from perception and geometry to procedure and causal reasoning. Experimental results show that current models still struggle to ground tool use in visual evidence: Gemini-3.1-Pro achieves 66.9% overall accuracy but only 51.7% on Perception & Grounding. Beyond evaluation, we validate EgoTools-Data as a training resource. On the full 1,000-question benchmark, full supervised fine-tuning improves Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct from 50.0% to 60.9%, under strict source-video separation. Together, these results establish EgoTools as a unified resource for both training and diagnostic evaluation of real-world egocentric tool-use understanding.

Mediation analysis learns the causal effect transmitted via mediator variables between treatments and outcomes and receives increasing attention in various scientific domains to elucidate causal relations. Most existing works focus on point-exposure studies where each subject only receives one treatment at a single time point. However, there are a number of applications (e.g., mobile health) where the treatments are sequentially assigned over time and the dynamic mediation effects are of primary interest. Proposing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, we are the first to evaluate dynamic mediation effects in settings with infinite horizons. We decompose the average treatment effect into an immediate direct effect, an immediate mediation effect, a delayed direct effect, and a delayed mediation effect. Upon the identification of each effect component, we further develop robust and semi-parametrically efficient estimators under the RL framework to infer these causal effects. The superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies, theoretical results, and an analysis of a mobile health dataset.

Despite alarm over the reliance of machine learning systems on so-called spurious patterns, the term lacks coherent meaning in standard statistical frameworks. However, the language of causality offers clarity: spurious associations are due to confounding (e.g., a common cause), but not direct or indirect causal effects. In this paper, we focus on natural language processing, introducing methods and resources for training models less sensitive to spurious patterns. Given documents and their initial labels, we task humans with revising each document so that it (i) accords with a counterfactual target label; (ii) retains internal coherence; and (iii) avoids unnecessary changes. Interestingly, on sentiment analysis and natural language inference tasks, classifiers trained on original data fail on their counterfactually-revised counterparts and vice versa. Classifiers trained on combined datasets perform remarkably well, just shy of those specialized to either domain. While classifiers trained on either original or manipulated data alone are sensitive to spurious features (e.g., mentions of genre), models trained on the combined data are less sensitive to this signal. Both datasets are publicly available.

Understanding the physical world - governed by laws of motion, spatial relations, and causality - poses a fundamental challenge for multimodal large language models (MLLMs). While recent advances such as OpenAI o3 and GPT-4o demonstrate impressive perceptual and reasoning capabilities, our investigation reveals these models struggle profoundly with visual physical reasoning, failing to grasp basic physical laws, spatial interactions, and causal effects in complex scenes. More importantly, they often fail to follow coherent reasoning chains grounded in visual evidence, especially when multiple steps are needed to arrive at the correct answer. To rigorously evaluate this capability, we introduce MVPBench, a curated benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate visual physical reasoning through the lens of visual chain-of-thought (CoT). Each example features interleaved multi-image inputs and demands not only the correct final answer but also a coherent, step-by-step reasoning path grounded in evolving visual cues. This setup mirrors how humans reason through real-world physical processes over time. To ensure fine-grained evaluation, we introduce a graph-based CoT consistency metric that verifies whether the reasoning path of model adheres to valid physical logic. Additionally, we minimize shortcut exploitation from text priors, encouraging models to rely on visual understanding. Experimental results reveal a concerning trend: even cutting-edge MLLMs exhibit poor visual reasoning accuracy and weak image-text alignment in physical domains. Surprisingly, RL-based post-training alignment - commonly believed to improve visual reasoning performance - often harms spatial reasoning, suggesting a need to rethink current fine-tuning practices.

Personalizing large language models (LLMs) for individual users has become increasingly important as they are progressively integrated into real-world applications to support users' daily lives. However, existing personalization approaches often fail to distinguish which components of model predictions and training data truly reflect user preferences, leading to superficial personalization alignment. In this paper, we introduce NextQuill, a novel LLM personalization alignment framework grounded in causal preference modeling. We approach personalization from a causal perspective, treating both model predictions and ground-truth data generation as outcomes influenced by user preferences, along with other factors. We define the true preference effect as the causal impact of user history (which reflects preferences) on each token prediction or data generation instance, estimated through causal intervention techniques. Building on this insight, NextQuill introduces two complementary alignment strategies: (1) aligning model-internal causal preference effects on predictions with those reflected in ground-truth data, rather than indiscriminately fitting predictions, and (2) focusing on fitting preference-bearing tokens identified via ground-truth data preference effects, rather than treating all tokens uniformly. By integrating these strategies, NextQuill shifts the alignment process toward learning from causal preference effects, facilitating more effective and personalized adaptation. Experiments across multiple personalization benchmarks demonstrate that NextQuill significantly improves personalization quality, offering a principled, causal foundation for LLM personalization. Our codes are available on https://github.com/juntaoyou/NextQuill.

Modern large language models (LLMs) are typically secured by auditing data, prompts, and refusal policies, while treating the forward pass as an implementation detail. We show that intermediate activations in decoder-only LLMs form a vulnerable attack surface for behavioral control. Building on recent findings on attention sinks and compression valleys, we identify a high-gain region in the residual stream where small, well-aligned perturbations are causally amplified along the autoregressive trajectory--a Causal Amplification Effect (CAE). We exploit this as an attack surface via Sensitivity-Scaled Steering (SSS), a progressive activation-level attack that combines beginning-of-sequence (BOS) anchoring with sensitivity-based reinforcement to focus a limited perturbation budget on the most vulnerable layers and tokens. We show that across multiple open-weight models and four behavioral axes, SSS induces large shifts in evil, hallucination, sycophancy, and sentiment while preserving high coherence and general capabilities, turning activation steering into a concrete security concern for white-box and supply-chain LLM deployments.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Recently, pre-trained language models (PLMs) have been increasingly adopted in spoken language understanding (SLU). However, automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems frequently produce inaccurate transcriptions, leading to noisy inputs for SLU models, which can significantly degrade their performance. To address this, our objective is to train SLU models to withstand ASR errors by exposing them to noises commonly observed in ASR systems, referred to as ASR-plausible noises. Speech noise injection (SNI) methods have pursued this objective by introducing ASR-plausible noises, but we argue that these methods are inherently biased towards specific ASR systems, or ASR-specific noises. In this work, we propose a novel and less biased augmentation method of introducing the noises that are plausible to any ASR system, by cutting off the non-causal effect of noises. Experimental results and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods in enhancing the robustness and generalizability of SLU models against unseen ASR systems by introducing more diverse and plausible ASR noises in advance.

A growing body of work makes use of probing to investigate the working of neural models, often considered black boxes. Recently, an ongoing debate emerged surrounding the limitations of the probing paradigm. In this work, we point out the inability to infer behavioral conclusions from probing results and offer an alternative method that focuses on how the information is being used, rather than on what information is encoded. Our method, Amnesic Probing, follows the intuition that the utility of a property for a given task can be assessed by measuring the influence of a causal intervention that removes it from the representation. Equipped with this new analysis tool, we can ask questions that were not possible before, e.g. is part-of-speech information important for word prediction? We perform a series of analyses on BERT to answer these types of questions. Our findings demonstrate that conventional probing performance is not correlated to task importance, and we call for increased scrutiny of claims that draw behavioral or causal conclusions from probing results.

Video--based world models have emerged along two dominant paradigms: video generation and 3D reconstruction. However, existing evaluation benchmarks either focus narrowly on visual fidelity and text--video alignment for generative models, or rely on static 3D reconstruction metrics that fundamentally neglect temporal dynamics. We argue that the future of world modeling lies in 4D generation, which jointly models spatial structure and temporal evolution. In this paradigm, the core capability is interactive response: the ability to faithfully reflect how interaction actions drive state transitions across space and time. Yet no existing benchmark systematically evaluates this critical dimension. To address this gap, we propose Omni--WorldBench, a comprehensive benchmark specifically designed to evaluate the interactive response capabilities of world models in 4D settings. Omni--WorldBench comprises two key components: Omni--WorldSuite, a systematic prompt suite spanning diverse interaction levels and scene types; and Omni--Metrics, an agent-based evaluation framework that quantifies world modeling capabilities by measuring the causal impact of interaction actions on both final outcomes and intermediate state evolution trajectories. We conduct extensive evaluations of 18 representative world models across multiple paradigms. Our analysis reveals critical limitations of current world models in interactive response, providing actionable insights for future research. Omni-WorldBench will be publicly released to foster progress in interactive 4D world modeling.

Explainability and interpretability of AI models is an essential factor affecting the safety of AI. While various explainable AI (XAI) approaches aim at mitigating the lack of transparency in deep networks, the evidence of the effectiveness of these approaches in improving usability, trust, and understanding of AI systems are still missing. We evaluate multimodal explanations in the setting of a Visual Question Answering (VQA) task, by asking users to predict the response accuracy of a VQA agent with and without explanations. We use between-subjects and within-subjects experiments to probe explanation effectiveness in terms of improving user prediction accuracy, confidence, and reliance, among other factors. The results indicate that the explanations help improve human prediction accuracy, especially in trials when the VQA system's answer is inaccurate. Furthermore, we introduce active attention, a novel method for evaluating causal attentional effects through intervention by editing attention maps. User explanation ratings are strongly correlated with human prediction accuracy and suggest the efficacy of these explanations in human-machine AI collaboration tasks.

This paper studies the supply and effects of causal rhetoric in U.S. politics. We define causal rhetoric as assigning responsibility for political outcomes, via claims of blame and merit. Training a supervised classifier, we detect causal rhetoric in over a decade of congressional tweets, finding that its supply has risen rapidly and pervasively, displacing affective messaging. We show that the production of causal rhetoric involves a trade-off between revenues and costs. First, quasi-random variation in Twitter adoption shows that blame increases small-donor revenues by expanding donor count, while merit raises average donation size. Second, fine-grained legislative data suggest that policy ownership determines relative costs: blame is cheaper for opponents, merit for proposers. Finally, causal rhetoric has downstream effects on societal outcomes, fostering protest activity and shaping polarization and institutional trust.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have attracted significant attention for their strong reasoning ability. However, under a bidirectional attention mechanism, DLMs operate over an exponentially large exploration space compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), making it challenging to focus on reasoning-guiding tokens under random masking. We define causal shortcuts as token chains that cover the full sequence and provide explicit guidance towards correct reasoning trajectories. We analyze the effects of causal shortcuts on the reasoning accuracy and convergence speed of DLMs, and find that they largely improve answer convergence efficiency and generation accuracy. Motivated by this, we propose a Causal Shortcut Learning (CSL) Framework for DLMs. Specifically, we introduce a step-by-step token extraction procedure to extract causal shortcuts from data, and apply parallel prioritized masking on these tokens during training to enable efficient and accurate convergence to correct answers via causal shortcuts. Extensive experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks and two base models demonstrate that CSL consistently outperforms existing SFT-variant baselines, achieving an average improvement of 1.92% over SFT-only models, and up to 4.20% on MATH-500. The code is available at the https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning{https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning

Language models (LMs) increasingly drive real-world applications that require world knowledge. However, the internal processes through which models turn data into representations of knowledge and beliefs about the world, are poorly understood. Insights into these processes could pave the way for developing LMs with knowledge representations that are more consistent, robust, and complete. To facilitate studying these questions, we present LMEnt, a suite for analyzing knowledge acquisition in LMs during pretraining. LMEnt introduces: (1) a knowledge-rich pretraining corpus, fully annotated with entity mentions, based on Wikipedia, (2) an entity-based retrieval method over pretraining data that outperforms previous approaches by as much as 80.4%, and (3) 12 pretrained models with up to 1B parameters and 4K intermediate checkpoints, with comparable performance to popular open-sourced models on knowledge benchmarks. Together, these resources provide a controlled environment for analyzing connections between entity mentions in pretraining and downstream performance, and the effects of causal interventions in pretraining data. We show the utility of LMEnt by studying knowledge acquisition across checkpoints, finding that fact frequency is key, but does not fully explain learning trends. We release LMEnt to support studies of knowledge in LMs, including knowledge representations, plasticity, editing, attribution, and learning dynamics.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

Curating a large scale medical imaging dataset for machine learning applications is both time consuming and expensive. Balancing the workload between model development, data collection and annotations is difficult for machine learning practitioners, especially under time constraints. Causal analysis is often used in medicine and economics to gain insights about the effects of actions and policies. In this paper we explore the effect of dataset interventions on the output of image classification models. Through a causal approach we investigate the effects of the quantity and type of data we need to incorporate in a dataset to achieve better performance for specific subtasks. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the potential of causal analysis as a tool for resource optimization for developing medical imaging ML applications. We explore this concept with a synthetic dataset and an exemplary use-case for Diabetic Retinopathy image analysis.

Interpretability demonstrations often show that intervening on a group of neurons changes a model's answer. A recent example removes an 18-neuron group in Qwen3-32B and the model answers "Simba" instead of "Scar" to a two-hop Lion King riddle. Such a demonstration establishes that the group matters, but not how much of it is necessary, whether other groups could do the same, or whether the effect carries over to other inputs. We ask: when intervening on a group of neurons changes a model's answer, how much of that group is actually necessary? For every selected group we measure all 4,096 subsets of 12 MLP neurons. On a two-alternative capital task (Qwen3-0.6B), zero-ablating 12 selected neurons lowers the answer margin by 27% while random neurons barely change it, yet replacing the same neurons with their values from other questions also barely changes it: their activations are nearly constant across questions, and we find no evidence that they carry question-specific content. On two-hop relation chains, patching 12 neurons with activations from the first-hop question shifts the answer to the bridge entity (from Scar to Simba): the greedy answer starts with the bridge in 9/11 chains for Qwen3-1.7B, 9/11 for Llama-3.2-1B and 8/10 for Gemma-3-1B; random neurons never do. The full group is rarely necessary: a few neurons often suffice, and in many chains disjoint subsets each flip the answer on their own, in an exploratory analysis most often when the model is less confident. Group effects transfer to rephrasings of the same chain but are much weaker on other tested chains. We study neuron-level causal interventions and alternative subsets; we do not recover the full connectivity of circuits.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) show promising reasoning capabilities, but reliable physical interaction requires planning that accounts for when actions are executable and how they change the world. These preconditions and effects are environment-dependent and often not captured by MLLMs, making adaptation challenging. Yet existing approaches either require costly environment-specific training or rely on unstructured interaction experience that is difficult to reuse. Therefore, we introduce CausGround, a non-parametric causal interaction grounding framework that distills interaction experience into reusable action-centered causal knowledge. CausGround identifies action preconditions and effects and organizes them in a factorized world-state representation capturing object attributes and inter-object relations. At planning time, task-relevant causal dependencies are grounded in current observations to support backward reasoning over preconditions and forward reasoning over effects for action selection and multi-step planning. We evaluate CausGround on simulated high-level planning, interaction reasoning, and real-world robot manipulation. On adapted VirtualHome and RoboCasa benchmarks, CausGround improves vision-based high-level planning across MLLM backbones, increasing average task success from 24.9% to 53.3% on VirtualHome and closed-loop planning success from 43.0% to 57.0% on RoboCasa. On SWITCH, average interaction reasoning accuracy increases from 25.8% to 31.9%, indicating improved action selection, recovery, and verification. Moreover, real-world experiments show that CausGround reasons backward from MLLM-interpreted goals to derive executable high-level action sequences for sequential manipulation. These results demonstrate that reusable action preconditions and effects support long-horizon embodied planning across diverse environments without parameter updates.

Common methods for interpreting neural models in natural language processing typically examine either their structure or their behavior, but not both. We propose a methodology grounded in the theory of causal mediation analysis for interpreting which parts of a model are causally implicated in its behavior. It enables us to analyze the mechanisms by which information flows from input to output through various model components, known as mediators. We apply this methodology to analyze gender bias in pre-trained Transformer language models. We study the role of individual neurons and attention heads in mediating gender bias across three datasets designed to gauge a model's sensitivity to gender bias. Our mediation analysis reveals that gender bias effects are (i) sparse, concentrated in a small part of the network; (ii) synergistic, amplified or repressed by different components; and (iii) decomposable into effects flowing directly from the input and indirectly through the mediators.

We present a novel approach to classify causal micro-narratives from text. These narratives are sentence-level explanations of the cause(s) and/or effect(s) of a target subject. The approach requires only a subject-specific ontology of causes and effects, and we demonstrate it with an application to inflation narratives. Using a human-annotated dataset spanning historical and contemporary US news articles for training, we evaluate several large language models (LLMs) on this multi-label classification task. The best-performing model--a fine-tuned Llama 3.1 8B--achieves F1 scores of 0.87 on narrative detection and 0.71 on narrative classification. Comprehensive error analysis reveals challenges arising from linguistic ambiguity and highlights how model errors often mirror human annotator disagreements. This research establishes a framework for extracting causal micro-narratives from real-world data, with wide-ranging applications to social science research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance in natural language tasks, but their outputs can exhibit undesirable attributes or biases. Existing methods for steering LLMs toward desired attributes often assume unbiased representations and rely solely on steering prompts. However, the representations learned from pre-training can introduce semantic biases that influence the steering process, leading to suboptimal results. We propose LLMGuardrail, a novel framework that incorporates causal analysis and adversarial learning to obtain unbiased steering representations in LLMs. LLMGuardrail systematically identifies and blocks the confounding effects of biases, enabling the extraction of unbiased steering representations. Additionally, it includes an explainable component that provides insights into the alignment between the generated output and the desired direction. Experiments demonstrate LLMGuardrail's effectiveness in steering LLMs toward desired attributes while mitigating biases. Our work contributes to the development of safe and reliable LLMs that align with desired attributes.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

The identification of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) across subgroups is of significant interest in clinical trial analysis. Several state-of-the-art HTE estimation methods, including causal forests, apply recursive partitioning for non-parametric identification of relevant covariates and interactions. However, the partitioning criterion is typically based on differences in absolute risk. This can dilute statistical power by masking variation in the relative risk, which is often a more appropriate quantity of clinical interest. In this work, we propose and implement a methodology for modifying causal forests to target relative risk, using a novel node-splitting procedure based on exhaustive generalized linear model comparison. We present results from simulated data that suggest relative risk causal forests can capture otherwise undetected sources of heterogeneity. We implement our method on real-world trial data to explore HTEs for liraglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Sparse autoencoder (SAE) features are used to interpret and steer large language models, yet whether a feature's causal role is stable across SAE families remains untested. Single-token features that activate on one vocabulary item provide the diagnostic case where ground truth permits direct comparison. We analyze 3.9M features across six models and three SAE families using zero-ablation at full layer depth. Single-token features cluster 4.7x tighter in decoder space and concentrate in early layers (Layer 0 in GPT2-Small; L0-L4 in Gemma). Ablating them yields Benjamini-Hochberg-significant logit reductions in 178 of 208 full-layer conditions, with depth controlling whether damage cascades downstream or shapes the output directly. Cross-family causal differences exceed within-family scale effects: on the same base model, GemmaScope and BatchTopK features remain causally anchored, while LlamaScope features are locally redundant. The target token's rank recovers to within 2x baseline 96-98% of the time after the same ablation, and a controlled activation-function comparison reverses sign within the same model, leaving training recipe as the residual candidate. Cross-family interpretability claims are therefore sensitive to training methodology, not just activation function or scale.

Causal discovery is increasingly applied to large-scale telemetry data to estimate the effects of user-facing interventions, yet its reliability for decision-making in feedback-driven systems with strong self-selection remains unclear. In this paper, we propose an effect-centric, admissibility-first framework that treats discovered graphs as structural hypotheses and evaluates them by identifiability, stability, and falsification rather than by graph recovery accuracy alone. Empirically, we study the effect of early exposure to competitive gameplay on short-term retention using real-world game telemetry. We find that many statistically plausible discovery outputs do not admit point-identified causal queries once minimal temporal and semantic constraints are enforced, highlighting identifiability as a critical bottleneck for decision support. When identification is possible, several algorithm families converge to similar, decision-consistent effect estimates despite producing substantially different graph structures, including cases where the direct treatment-outcome edge is absent and the effect is preserved through indirect causal pathways. These converging estimates survive placebo, subsampling, and sensitivity refutation. In contrast, other methods exhibit sporadic admissibility and threshold-sensitive or attenuated effects due to endpoint ambiguity. These results suggest that graph-level metrics alone are inadequate proxies for causal reliability for a given target query. Therefore, trustworthy causal conclusions in telemetry-driven systems require prioritizing admissibility and effect-level validation over causal structural recovery alone.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

Randomization tests have gained popularity for causal inference under network interference because they are finite-sample valid with minimal assumptions. However, existing procedures are limited as they primarily focus on the existence of spillovers through sharp null hypotheses on potential outcomes. In this paper, we expand the scope of randomization procedures in network settings by developing new tests for the monotonicity of spillover effects. These tests offer insights into whether spillover effects increase, decrease, or exhibit ``diminishing returns'' along certain network dimensions of interest. Our approach partitions the network into multiple (possibly overlapping) parts and tests a monotone contrast hypothesis in each sub-network. The test decisions can then be aggregated in various ways depending on how each test is constructed. We demonstrate our method by re-analyzing a large-scale policing experiment in Colombia, which reveals evidence of monotonicity related to the ``crime displacement hypothesis''. Our analysis suggests that crime spillovers on a control street increase with the number of nearby streets receiving more intense policing but diminish at higher exposure levels.

We present PopResume, a population-representative resume dataset for causal fairness auditing of LLM- and VLM-based resume screening systems. Unlike existing benchmarks that rely on manually injected demographic information and outcome-level disparities, PopResume is grounded in population statistics and preserves natural attribute relationships, enabling path-specific effect (PSE)-based fairness evaluation. We decompose the effect of a protected attribute on resume scores into two paths: the business necessity path, mediated by job-relevant qualifications, and the redlining path, mediated by demographic proxies. This distinction allows auditors to separate legally permissible from impermissible sources of disparity. Evaluating four LLMs and four VLMs on PopResume's 60.8K resumes across five occupations, we identify five representative discrimination patterns that aggregate metrics fail to capture. Our results demonstrate that PSE-based evaluation reveals fairness issues masked by outcome-level measures, underscoring the need for causally-grounded auditing frameworks in AI-assisted hiring.

Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects under unobserved confounding is central in observational causal inference. In proxy models with a discrete latent confounder, prior Synthetic Potential Outcomes (SPO) [Mazaheri-Squires-Uhler '25] recover the mixture of treatment effects through recursively constructed scalar moments. We show that this sequence is one projection of a more fundamental object. Under the same population factorization assumptions, there is an exact compressed observable operator: after projecting onto the shared proxy signal subspace, the difference of two treatment-arm quotient operators is similar to the diagonal matrix of latent treatment effects. Its eigenvalues are the latent effects; its lifted left eigenvectors, after anchor normalization, recover the target-proxy feature matrix and then the latent mixture proportions. Every scalar SPO moment is a bilinear functional of a power of this operator. The resulting estimator handles overcomplete proxy systems, replaces high-order scalar inversion with finite-dimensional spectral analysis, and admits high-probability first-order perturbation bounds for treatment effects, feature rows, and simplex-projected mixture weights.

We propose constrained causal Bayesian optimization (cCBO), an approach for finding interventions in a known causal graph that optimize a target variable under some constraints. cCBO first reduces the search space by exploiting the graph structure and, if available, an observational dataset; and then solves the restricted optimization problem by modelling target and constraint quantities using Gaussian processes and by sequentially selecting interventions via a constrained expected improvement acquisition function. We propose different surrogate models that enable to integrate observational and interventional data while capturing correlation among effects with increasing levels of sophistication. We evaluate cCBO on artificial and real-world causal graphs showing successful trade off between fast convergence and percentage of feasible interventions.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Adversarial examples derived from deliberately crafted perturbations on visual inputs can easily harm decision process of deep neural networks. To prevent potential threats, various adversarial training-based defense methods have grown rapidly and become a de facto standard approach for robustness. Despite recent competitive achievements, we observe that adversarial vulnerability varies across targets and certain vulnerabilities remain prevalent. Intriguingly, such peculiar phenomenon cannot be relieved even with deeper architectures and advanced defense methods. To address this issue, in this paper, we introduce a causal approach called Adversarial Double Machine Learning (ADML), which allows us to quantify the degree of adversarial vulnerability for network predictions and capture the effect of treatments on outcome of interests. ADML can directly estimate causal parameter of adversarial perturbations per se and mitigate negative effects that can potentially damage robustness, bridging a causal perspective into the adversarial vulnerability. Through extensive experiments on various CNN and Transformer architectures, we corroborate that ADML improves adversarial robustness with large margins and relieve the empirical observation.

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment assignments and the interference levels. In this article, we conduct causal inference under interference on an observed, sparse but connected network, and we propose a novel design of experiments based on an independent set. Compared to conventional designs, the independent-set design focuses on an independent subset of data and controls their interference exposures through the assignments to the rest (auxiliary set). We provide a lower bound on the size of the independent set from a greedy algorithm , and justify the theoretical performance of estimators under the proposed design. Our approach is capable of estimating both spillover effects and treatment effects. We justify its superiority over conventional methods and illustrate the empirical performance through simulations.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

World models require robust relational understanding to support prediction, reasoning, and control. While object-centric representations provide a useful abstraction, they are not sufficient to capture interaction-dependent dynamics. We therefore propose C-JEPA, a simple and flexible object-centric world model that extends masked joint embedding prediction from image patches to object-centric representations. By applying object-level masking that requires an object's state to be inferred from other objects, C-JEPA induces latent interventions with counterfactual-like effects and prevents shortcut solutions, making interaction reasoning essential. Empirically, C-JEPA leads to consistent gains in visual question answering, with an absolute improvement of about 20\% in counterfactual reasoning compared to the same architecture without object-level masking. On agent control tasks, C-JEPA enables substantially more efficient planning by using only 1\% of the total latent input features required by patch-based world models, while achieving comparable performance. Finally, we provide a formal analysis demonstrating that object-level masking induces a causal inductive bias via latent interventions. Our code is available at https://github.com/galilai-group/cjepa.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Sparse autoencoders can localize where concepts live in language models, but not how they interact during multi-step reasoning. We propose Causal Concept Graphs (CCG): a directed acyclic graph over sparse, interpretable latent features, where edges capture learned causal dependencies between concepts. We combine task-conditioned sparse autoencoders for concept discovery with DAGMA-style differentiable structure learning for graph recovery and introduce the Causal Fidelity Score (CFS) to evaluate whether graph-guided interventions induce larger downstream effects than random ones. On ARC-Challenge, StrategyQA, and LogiQA with GPT-2 Medium, across five seeds (n{=}15 paired runs), CCG achieves CFS=5.654pm0.625, outperforming ROME-style tracing (3.382pm0.233), SAE-only ranking (2.479pm0.196), and a random baseline (1.032pm0.034), with p<0.0001 after Bonferroni correction. Learned graphs are sparse (5-6\% edge density), domain-specific, and stable across seeds.

When adapting an encoder to a new domain, the standard approach is to continue training with Masked Language Modeling (MLM). We show that temporarily switching to Causal Language Modeling (CLM) followed by a short MLM decay improves downstream performance. On biomedical texts with ModernBERT, this CLM detour outperforms MLM baselines trained on identical data and compute across 8 French and 11 English biomedical tasks, by +1.2-2.8pp and +0.3-0.8pp respectively, depending on model size. We investigate the reasons for these gains. We find that CLM's dense supervision impacts low transformer layers (0-7) far more than MLM does. Freezing low layers during CLM eliminates the downstream benefit; freezing mid layers preserves it. The representational changes persist through the MLM decay phase, even when it matches the CLM phase in length, and they scale with model capacity. We release ModernCamemBERT-bio and ModernBERT-bio as state-of-the-art biomedical encoders in Base and Large sizes.

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

Causal reasoning in natural language requires identifying relevant variables, understanding their interactions, and reasoning about effects and interventions, often under noisy or ambiguous conditions. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general reasoning abilities, they struggle to disentangle correlation from causation, particularly when observations are partially incorrect or irrelevant information is present. In this work, we introduce NoisyCausal, a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal reasoning under structured noise. Each instance is generated from a ground-truth causal graph and contextualized with a natural language scenario by injecting controllable forms of noise, such as irrelevant distractors, value perturbations, confounding, and partial observability. Moreover, we propose a modular reasoning framework that combines LLMs with explicit causal structure to address these challenges. Our method prompts the LLM to extract variables, construct a causal graph from context, and then reformulates the reasoning task as a structured prompt grounded in this graph. Rather than relying on statistical patterns alone, the LLM is guided by symbolic structure, enabling more interpretable and robust inference. Experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms standard prompting and reasoning baselines on NoisyCausal. Furthermore, it generalizes well to external benchmarks such as Cladder without task-specific tuning. Our findings highlight the importance of combining causal abstractions with language-driven reasoning to achieve faithful and robust causal understanding in LLMs.

The origins of the colours of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) represent a crucial unresolved question, central to understanding the history of our Solar System. Recent observational surveys revealed correlations between the eccentricity and inclination of TNOs, and their colours. This rekindled the long-standing debate on whether these colours reflect the conditions of TNO formation or their subsequent evolution. We address this question using a model-agnostic, data-driven approach that unanimously converges to a common causal graph from the analysis of two different datasets, each from two different conditional independence test methods. For evaluation, we demonstrate how our model is consistent with the currently-accepted paradigms of TNOs' dynamical histories, without involving any orbital modelling or physics-based assumptions. Our causal model (with no knowledge of the existence of Neptune) predicts the need for an unknown confounding variable, consistent with Neptune's effects. The model predicts that the colour of TNOs is the root cause of their inclination distribution, rather than the other way around. This strongly suggests that the colours of TNOs reflect an underlying dynamical property, most likely their formation location. Our model excludes formation scenarios that invoke substantial colour modification by subsequent evolution. We conclude that the colours of TNOs are predominantly primordial.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Social media platforms have led to online consumption communities, or fandoms, that involve complex networks of ancillary creators and consumers focused on some core product or intellectual property. For example, video game communities include networks of players and content creators centered around a specific video game. These networks are complex in that video game publishers often sponsor creators, but creators and publishers may have divergent incentives. Specifically, creators can potentially benefit from content that builds their own following at the expense of the core game. Our research investigates the relationship between consuming live-streamed content and engagement with a specific video game. We examine the causal effect of viewing live-streamed content on subsequent gameplay for a specific game, using an unexpected service interruption of the livestreaming platform and time zone differences among users. We find live-streamed content significantly increases gameplay as a 10% increase in live-streamed viewing minutes results in a 3.08% increase in gameplay minutes. We also explore how this effect varies by user loyalty to different types of streamer channels (firm-owned, mega, and micro). The positive effects of live-streamed content are greatest for micro-streamers and smallest for mega-streamers. These findings are salient for firms allocating sponsorship resources.

As multi-agent AI systems are increasingly deployed in real-world settings - from automated customer support to DevOps remediation - failures become harder to diagnose due to cascading effects, hidden dependencies, and long execution traces. We present AgentTrace, a lightweight causal tracing framework for post-hoc failure diagnosis in deployed multi-agent workflows. AgentTrace reconstructs causal graphs from execution logs, traces backward from error manifestations, and ranks candidate root causes using interpretable structural and positional signals - without requiring LLM inference at debugging time. Across a diverse benchmark of multi-agent failure scenarios designed to reflect common deployment patterns, AgentTrace localizes root causes with high accuracy and sub-second latency, significantly outperforming both heuristic and LLM-based baselines. Our results suggest that causal tracing provides a practical foundation for improving the reliability and trustworthiness of agentic systems in the wild.

As the class size grows, maintaining a balanced dataset across many classes is challenging because the data are long-tailed in nature; it is even impossible when the sample-of-interest co-exists with each other in one collectable unit, e.g., multiple visual instances in one image. Therefore, long-tailed classification is the key to deep learning at scale. However, existing methods are mainly based on re-weighting/re-sampling heuristics that lack a fundamental theory. In this paper, we establish a causal inference framework, which not only unravels the whys of previous methods, but also derives a new principled solution. Specifically, our theory shows that the SGD momentum is essentially a confounder in long-tailed classification. On one hand, it has a harmful causal effect that misleads the tail prediction biased towards the head. On the other hand, its induced mediation also benefits the representation learning and head prediction. Our framework elegantly disentangles the paradoxical effects of the momentum, by pursuing the direct causal effect caused by an input sample. In particular, we use causal intervention in training, and counterfactual reasoning in inference, to remove the "bad" while keep the "good". We achieve new state-of-the-arts on three long-tailed visual recognition benchmarks: Long-tailed CIFAR-10/-100, ImageNet-LT for image classification and LVIS for instance segmentation.

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.