Daily Papers

Large language models need effective ways to acquire and use external knowledge beyond what they retain from pretraining. Continued pretraining risks catastrophic forgetting, while retrieval at inference time can add substantial overhead. External parametric memory avoids online retrieval, but constructing its training data requires extensive offline search, and output-level interpolation provides only shallow fusion. We introduce Deep Fusion Memory (DFM), a parametric memory architecture that reduces this construction workload and incorporates learned memory into intermediate hidden states. A causal memory predictor learns to generate memory from the preceding context, using retrieved chunk embeddings from the corpus as supervision. The predicted memory is shared across tokens within each chunk and fused into their hidden states through gated cross-attention. Memory prediction and fusion are trained end to end with the backbone frozen, and inference requires no explicit retrieval. Compared with existing parametric memory approaches, which often construct token-level memory targets, DFM requires 32times fewer retrieval queries and 2048times fewer retrieved items to construct its training data. Across six QA tasks, DFM performs better over the strongest baseline by 12.71% on Mistral-7B-v0.3 and 11.19% on Qwen3-8B-Base. Beyond QA, domain adaptation yields average gains of 6.51 and 4.38 points over Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base, respectively.

Real-world time series are frequently driven by exogenous events and structural shifts, rendering conventional forecasting based solely on historical numerical observations insufficient. While language models can retrieve external news, standard retrieval-augmented approaches struggle with high noise, missing signals, and an inability to reason causally about event impacts. We propose SEER (Self-Evolving Event Reasoning and Retrieval), a closed-loop framework that dynamically optimizes event conditioning for time series forecasting. SEER translates prediction errors into two decoupled feedback mechanisms: (i) a reflective retrieval memory that refines subsequent search queries and filters spurious noise, and (ii) a persistent causal knowledge base that distills transferable domain dynamics. SEER enforces strict chronological boundaries across both event retrieval and reflection, preventing look-ahead bias and data leakage. Across six volatile time-series benchmarks, SEER consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time series foundation models and language model baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant success across various domains. However, the inherent complexity of causal problems and causal theory poses challenges in accurately describing them in natural language, making it difficult for LLMs to comprehend and use them effectively. Causal methods are not easily conveyed through natural language, which hinders LLMs' ability to apply them accurately. Additionally, causal datasets are typically tabular, while LLMs excel in handling natural language data, creating a structural mismatch that impedes effective reasoning with tabular data. This lack of causal reasoning capability limits the development of LLMs. To address these challenges, we have equipped the LLM with causal tools within an agent framework, named the Causal Agent, enabling it to tackle causal problems. The causal agent comprises tools, memory, and reasoning modules. In the tools module, the causal agent applies causal methods to align tabular data with natural language. In the reasoning module, the causal agent employs the ReAct framework to perform reasoning through multiple iterations with the tools. In the memory module, the causal agent maintains a dictionary instance where the keys are unique names and the values are causal graphs. To verify the causal ability of the causal agent, we established a benchmark consisting of four levels of causal problems: variable level, edge level, causal graph level, and causal effect level. We generated a test dataset of 1.3K using ChatGPT-3.5 for these four levels of issues and tested the causal agent on the datasets. Our methodology demonstrates remarkable efficacy on the four-level causal problems, with accuracy rates all above 80%. For further insights and implementation details, our code is accessible via the GitHub repository https://github.com/Kairong-Han/Causal_Agent.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining whether there is a causal relation between two event mentions. Conventional prompt learning designs a prompt template to first predict an answer word and then maps it to the final decision. Unlike conventional prompts, we argue that predicting an answer word may not be a necessary prerequisite for the ECI task. Instead, we can first make a deterministic assumption on the existence of causal relation between two events and then evaluate its rationality to either accept or reject the assumption. The design motivation is to try the most utilization of the encyclopedia-like knowledge embedded in a pre-trained language model. In light of such considerations, we propose a deterministic assumption prompt learning model, called DAPrompt, for the ECI task. In particular, we design a simple deterministic assumption template concatenating with the input event pair, which includes two masks as predicted events' tokens. We use the probabilities of predicted events to evaluate the assumption rationality for the final event causality decision. Experiments on the EventStoryLine corpus and Causal-TimeBank corpus validate our design objective in terms of significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Causal reasoning (CR) is a crucial aspect of intelligence, essential for problem-solving, decision-making, and understanding the world. While language models (LMs) can generate rationales for their outputs, their ability to reliably perform causal reasoning remains uncertain, often falling short in tasks requiring a deep understanding of causality. In this paper, we introduce CausalEval, a comprehensive review of research aimed at enhancing LMs for causal reasoning, coupled with an empirical evaluation of current models and methods. We categorize existing methods based on the role of LMs: either as reasoning engines or as helpers providing knowledge or data to traditional CR methods, followed by a detailed discussion of methodologies in each category. We then assess the performance of current LMs and various enhancement methods on a range of causal reasoning tasks, providing key findings and in-depth analysis. Finally, we present insights from current studies and highlight promising directions for future research. We aim for this work to serve as a comprehensive resource, fostering further advancements in causal reasoning with LMs.

Long-horizon agents rely on memory mechanisms to compress interaction history, but optimizing memory writing faces a distinct credit assignment challenge: a memory update may be rewarded or penalized due to downstream tool failures, noisy observations, or reasoning errors rather than its own contribution. This causally entangled credit can lead agents to discard useful evidence or preserve irrelevant information. We propose HiMPO, a Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization framework for assigning less-entangled credit to memory-writing actions in long-horizon agents. HiMPO first estimates the local utility of a memory update by comparing the task-relevant information recoverable from the previous and updated memories under the same pre-write state. It then uses hindsight relevance as a bounded retrospective filter that attenuates memory credit when local utility is not supported by the target outcome. The resulting memory-specific advantage is applied only to memory tokens, while trajectory-level rewards optimize the rest of the agent behavior. Across judge-based open-domain tasks and objective compressive-memory QA, HiMPO improves over strong memory-based and RL-based baselines while preserving compressed-context efficiency. Controlled interventions further show that HiMPO reduces blame leakage from tool-induced errors and improves attribution fidelity of memory updates.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains. However, a fundamental question remains: Can LLMs effectively utilize causal knowledge for prediction and generation? Through empirical studies, we find that LLMs trained directly on large-scale data often capture spurious correlations rather than true causal relationships, leading to suboptimal performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose Causal Attention Tuning (CAT), a novel approach that injects fine-grained causal knowledge into the attention mechanism. We propose an automated pipeline that leverages human priors to automatically generate token-level causal signals and introduce the Re-Attention mechanism to guide training, helping the model focus on causal structures while mitigating noise and biases in attention scores. Experimental results on our proposed Spurious Token Game (STG) benchmark and multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that our approach effectively leverages causal knowledge for prediction and remains robust in OOD scenarios. Implementation details can be found at https://github.com/Kairong-Han/CAT.

Learned-memory methods store information in an explicit table and consume it through a separate reader, allowing addressing, storage, and reading to be modified independently. We study whether useful memory can also be generated rather than only retrieved. MemoryAthena uses three pathways: direct Engram retrieval (E), generation from retrieved Engram cues (GE), and generation from causal backbone states without consulting the memory table (GH). Generated memory is conditionally useful: it can complement E in one context but interfere with it in another. MemoryAthena therefore treats E as an anchor and learns when a generated representation should intervene. With the backbone, memory, generators, and readers frozen, a lightweight causal routing head is trained from counterfactual future-token likelihood advantages of GE and GH relative to E. At inference time, an admitted candidate modifies the E residual through bounded interpolation, while rejection recovers the direct pathway exactly. On question answering, MemoryAthena raises the five-task average from 37.65 to 39.28 over the direct pathway of the same checkpoint, while the six-task general-NLP average increases from 76.73 to 79.13. The complete memory-side system contains approximately 201M parameters, excluding the frozen backbone. Further analyses show complementary strengths among E, GE, and GH across tasks and inputs. These results support generated memory as a selective correction to direct retrieval and highlight routing when, which, and how strongly to intervene as the central challenge.

Continual Learning for Named Entity Recognition (CL-NER) aims to learn a growing number of entity types over time from a stream of data. However, simply learning Other-Class in the same way as new entity types amplifies the catastrophic forgetting and leads to a substantial performance drop. The main cause behind this is that Other-Class samples usually contain old entity types, and the old knowledge in these Other-Class samples is not preserved properly. Thanks to the causal inference, we identify that the forgetting is caused by the missing causal effect from the old data. To this end, we propose a unified causal framework to retrieve the causality from both new entity types and Other-Class. Furthermore, we apply curriculum learning to mitigate the impact of label noise and introduce a self-adaptive weight for balancing the causal effects between new entity types and Other-Class. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art method by a large margin. Moreover, our method can be combined with the existing state-of-the-art methods to improve the performance in CL-NER

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial" study of LLMs to benchmark their capability in generating causal arguments. Across a wide range of tasks, we find that LLMs can generate text corresponding to correct causal arguments with high probability, surpassing the best-performing existing methods. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain) and event causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). We perform robustness checks across tasks and show that the capabilities cannot be explained by dataset memorization alone, especially since LLMs generalize to novel datasets that were created after the training cutoff date. That said, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes, and we discuss the kinds of errors that may be improved and what are the fundamental limits of LLM-based answers. Overall, by operating on the text metadata, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. As a result, LLMs may be used by human domain experts to save effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. Given that LLMs ignore the actual data, our results also point to a fruitful research direction of developing algorithms that combine LLMs with existing causal techniques. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/py-why/pywhy-llm.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in long interactions, existing evaluations focus predominantly on retrospective memory (RM) via explicit queries. Prospective memory (PM), the critical ability to spontaneously recall and act on latent constraints without direct prompts, remains largely unevaluated. We introduce TriggerBench, a comprehensive PM benchmark spanning five dimensions across both daily assistants and professional workflows. TriggerBench pairs scenarios with matched RM controls, contrastive positive/negative variants, and overloaded triggers, enabling fine-grained measurement of proactive recall, false-alarm rate, and attentional robustness under a single protocol. Our evaluation yields three key findings. (i) PM shows a precision-recall trade-off and attentional fragility. Though enhanced reasoning significantly improves proactive recall, models may overfit to an "always-remind" heuristic. Furthermore, PM accuracy degrades substantially under implicit constraints or triggers overloaded by concurrent user requests, indicating that robust PM remains an open challenge. (ii) PM is notably harder than RM: on identical contexts, RM near-saturates up to 100K tokens, while PM decays sharply as context length scales. (iii) PM may serve as a behavioral probe of spare reasoning capacity. Pairing PM scenarios with AIME-2025 math problems reveals that successful trajectories yield higher PM accuracy than failed ones at the same context length, showing PM tracks spare reasoning budget that token count obscures. Project page: https://github.com/KristenZHANG/TriggerBench-Official.

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Recent studies introduce conditional memory modules that decouple knowledge storage from neural computation, enabling more direct knowledge access. Compared to MoE, which relies on dynamic computation paths, explicit lookup provides a more efficient knowledge retrieval mechanism. However, these approaches still depend on learned memory embeddings, requiring additional training and limiting flexibility. To address this, we propose N-gram Memory (NGM), a training-free, plug-and-play module composed of a Causal N-Gram Encoder and a Cosine-Gated Memory Injector. The Causal N-Gram Encoder directly averages the pretrained token embeddings of the backbone model to construct N-gram representations, thereby eliminating the need to train separate N-gram embeddings from scratch. This design requires neither an additional memory table nor a retrieval pipeline. The Cosine-Gated Memory Injector then uses a non-parametric cosine gate with ReLU to modulate the retrieved embeddings into the contextual representations. We evaluate NGM on the Qwen3 series from 0.6B to 14B across eight benchmarks. NGM improves average performance by 0.5 to 1.2 points, with particularly clear gains on code generation and knowledge-intensive tasks (e.g., +3.0 on LiveCodeBench and +3.03 on GPQA for Qwen3-14B). Moreover, NGM also improves performance in multimodal benchmarks (e.g., MMStar +1.53 on Qwen3-VL-2B).

The traditional i.i.d.-based learning paradigm faces inherent challenges in addressing causal relationships, which has become increasingly evident with the rise of applications in causal representation learning. Our understanding of causality naturally requires a perspective as the creator rather than observer, as the ``what...if'' questions only hold within the possible world we conceive. The traditional perspective limits capturing dynamic causal outcomes and leads to compensatory efforts such as the reliance on hidden confounders. This paper lays the groundwork for the new perspective, which enables the relation-first modeling paradigm for causality. Also, it introduces the Relation-Indexed Representation Learning (RIRL) as a practical implementation, supported by experiments that validate its efficacy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Transformers suffer from a high computational cost that grows with sequence length for self-attention, making inference in long streams prohibited by memory consumption. Constant-memory alternatives such as RNNs and SSMs compress history into states with fixed size and thus lose long-tail dependencies, while methods that memorize contexts into parameters, such as Test-Time Training (TTT), are prone to overfitting token-level projection and fail to preserve the causal effect of context in pretrained LLMs. We propose Absorber LLM, which formulates long-context retention as a self-supervised causal synchronization: after absorbing historical contexts into parameters, a contextless model should match the original model with full context on future generations. We optimize this objective by synchronizing internal behaviors of the updated model with the original one, ensuring context absorption and generalization. Experiments on long-context and streaming benchmarks show that Absorber LLM reduces inference memory and improves accuracy over prior parameter-as-memory baselines.

In this paper, we describe our participation in the subtask 1 of CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. We address the Causal Relation Identification (CRI) task by exploiting a set of simple yet complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models (LMs) on a small number of annotated examples (i.e., a few-shot configuration). We follow a prompt-based prediction approach for fine-tuning LMs in which the CRI task is treated as a masked language modeling problem (MLM). This approach allows LMs natively pre-trained on MLM problems to directly generate textual responses to CRI-specific prompts. We compare the performance of this method against ensemble techniques trained on the entire dataset. Our best-performing submission was fine-tuned with only 256 instances per class, 15.7% of the all available data, and yet obtained the second-best precision (0.82), third-best accuracy (0.82), and an F1-score (0.85) very close to what was reported by the winner team (0.86).

Large language model (LLM) agents frequently fail on multi-step tasks involving reasoning, tool use, and environment interaction. While such failures are typically logged or retried heuristically, they contain structured signals about where execution broke down. We introduce CausalFlow, an interventional framework that converts failed agent traces into minimal counterfactual repairs and reusable supervision. CausalFlow models execution traces as sequential chains of dependent steps and computes Causal Responsibility Scores(CRS) via step-level counterfactual intervention to identify failure-inducing steps. For these steps, we generate minimally edited repairs that flip the final outcome to success, producing validated contrastive pairs of the form (wrong step, corrected step). CausalFlow supports two complementary uses: targeted test-time repair that recovers from failures with minimal behavioral drift, and training-time supervision suitable for offline preference optimization or reward modeling. Across four benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, question answering, and medical browsing, CausalFlow converts failed executions into validated minimal repairs with high minimality and causal-consensus scores, and demonstrates that causal attribution is necessary for reliable improvement across diverse agent tasks, outperforming heuristic refinement in complex retrieval settings while producing more localized repairs throughout. These results demonstrate that interventional analysis over structured execution traces provides a principled and scalable mechanism for transforming agent failures into reliability gains and learning-ready supervision.

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

We present a conditional text generation framework that posits sentential expressions of possible causes and effects. This framework depends on two novel resources we develop in the course of this work: a very large-scale collection of English sentences expressing causal patterns CausalBank; and a refinement over previous work on constructing large lexical causal knowledge graphs Cause Effect Graph. Further, we extend prior work in lexically-constrained decoding to support disjunctive positive constraints. Human assessment confirms that our approach gives high-quality and diverse outputs. Finally, we use CausalBank to perform continued training of an encoder supporting a recent state-of-the-art model for causal reasoning, leading to a 3-point improvement on the COPA challenge set, with no change in model architecture.

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established methods to discover causal structure exist, they are often focused on structure identifiability and decoupled from the predictive architectures that could benefit from them. To bridge these perspectives, we study how to simultaneously infer and enforce causal structure in the form of topological variable orderings into tabular prediction. Unlike standard architectures, our model TabOrder uses causal order-constrained attention, basing predictions only on features that precede a target under a learned causal order. Similar to causal discovery methods, TabOrder learns the optimal variable ordering in an unsupervised manner through a likelihood-based objective. We justify this choice under standard functional model classes and also study how sample missingness, a common challenge in tabular data, interacts with causal direction identification. Empirically, we confirm that TabOrder recovers accurate variable orderings while addressing prediction and imputation tasks, as well as gives insight into real-world biological data under intervention.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit logically inconsistent hallucinations that appear coherent yet violate reasoning principles, with recent research suggesting an inverse relationship between causal reasoning capabilities and such hallucinations. However, existing reasoning approaches in LLMs, such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and its graph-based variants, operate at the linguistic token level rather than modeling the underlying causal relationships between variables, lacking the ability to represent conditional independencies or satisfy causal identification assumptions. To bridge this gap, we introduce causal-DAG construction and reasoning (CDCR-SFT), a supervised fine-tuning framework that trains LLMs to explicitly construct variable-level directed acyclic graph (DAG) and then perform reasoning over it. Moreover, we present a dataset comprising 25,368 samples (CausalDR), where each sample includes an input question, explicit causal DAG, graph-based reasoning trace, and validated answer. Experiments on four LLMs across eight tasks show that CDCR-SFT improves the causal reasoning capability with the state-of-the-art 95.33% accuracy on CLADDER (surpassing human performance of 94.8% for the first time) and reduces the hallucination on HaluEval with 10% improvements. It demonstrates that explicit causal structure modeling in LLMs can effectively mitigate logical inconsistencies in LLM outputs. Code is available at https://github.com/MrLYG/CDCR-SFT.

Lifelong physical agents must reason over extended interactions where past events continue to shape the world long after they disappear from view. Beyond recalling what happened, agents must infer how history changes the current state and constrains future actions. Yet existing embodied and video-memory benchmarks largely focus on historical retrieval and summary, leaving such history-dependent causal reasoning underexplored. We introduce EMBER-Bench, an egocentric benchmark for cross-event causal reasoning in long-horizon embodied tasks, for which we newly created the task design, video recording, and data annotation. It contains 189 household tasks and 699 QA pairs, spanning task progress, failure recovery, external interventions, and compound long-horizon tasks with distant dependencies and prerequisites, with fine-grained event and causal-chain annotations. EMBER-Bench evaluates reasoning in both directions: next-action prediction selects the next action from history, and causal traceback, given that action, identifies the historical event that makes it necessary. Input ablations that add action logs or privileged cause-and-consequence annotations to the video indicate which kind of historical information models fail to use. Among the 16 evaluated models, the highest overall accuracy is 61.2%, compared with a mean of 98.3% across two human evaluators. At paired decision points, correct traceback is not associated with correct next-action prediction. Adding action logs yields a gain of 1.6 points, whereas cause-and-consequence annotations yield an additional gain of 13.0 points on top of that. These results suggest that extracting causal information from past events and converting it into constraints on current actions remains a key difficulty for long-horizon embodied agents. Project Page: https://zhaoalexgoat.github.io/EMBER-Bench/

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity and correlation-driven retrieval, limiting their ability to distinguish true causal relationships from spurious associations. This results in responses that may be factually grounded but fail to establish cause-and-effect mechanisms, leading to incomplete or misleading insights. To address this issue, we introduce Causal Dynamic Feedback for Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation (CDF-RAG), a framework designed to improve causal consistency, factual accuracy, and explainability in generative reasoning. CDF-RAG iteratively refines queries, retrieves structured causal graphs, and enables multi-hop causal reasoning across interconnected knowledge sources. Additionally, it validates responses against causal pathways, ensuring logically coherent and factually grounded outputs. We evaluate CDF-RAG on four diverse datasets, demonstrating its ability to improve response accuracy and causal correctness over existing RAG-based methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ elakhatibi/CDF-RAG.

Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions. A key aspect is temporal causal reasoning, causally reasoning about what prior inputs were necessary in causing an observed outcome. While large language models (LLMs) perform well at forward simulation, predicting outputs from inputs, they struggle to identify the minimal causal inputs of outcomes. To study this distinction, we define two tasks: trace simulation (SIM), which requires models to simulate system execution, and minimal causal attribution (MIN), which identifies the minimal set of inputs necessary for a given outcome. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verified benchmark for temporal causal reasoning, built from synthesized Mealy machines with controllable complexity and provably correct causal labels. Across frontier models, we observe that despite achieving up to 96\% accuracy on the SIM task, performance on the causal attribution MIN task drops below 25\%; models fail to reason about causal necessity. Over 94\% of causal errors involve overspecification, where models perform retrieval and list all possible inputs rather than reasoning about the minimal causal subset. Fine-tuning on TempoBench training corpus improves causal reasoning and generalizes better than math, code, or instruction training, with gains across standard reasoning benchmarks.

Limited Memory Language Models (LMLMs) externalize factual knowledge to a database to enable deletion-based unlearning without retraining. Existing evaluations measure post-deletion correctness in aggregate and cannot tell whether a deleted fact persists through residual parametric memory, alternative retrieval paths, or near-neighbor retrieval artifacts. We propose a causal auditing framework that holds the model fixed and varies the database state at inference time across three interventions: FULL, DEL-ON, and DEL-OFF. The framework decomposes post-deletion behavior into parametric leakage L(f), retrieval-mediated correctness R(f), and a retrieval artifact rate grounded in the inference-time retrieval trace. We apply it to 12,228 alias-closure deletions across thirteen databases, including four adversarial topologies (Base, Alias, Noise, Collision) we construct in three domains, and six prompt formulations. Parametric leakage is near zero in every variant and every prompt style: the model rarely returns the deleted answer in the absence of retrieval. The residual that does survive lives in the retrieval graph: retrieval-mediated correctness and the retrieval artifact rate match within rounding everywhere, so post-deletion correctness is, in our audit, predominantly reconstituted from near-neighbor retrieval. This residual ranges from 0.7% on the released LMLM database to 13.6% on the most adversarial variant, and prompt formulation does not independently control how much of a deleted fact survives. These results suggest that, for this class of LMLM and deletion procedure, the unlearning boundary is drawn primarily by the database administrator rather than by the model.

Machine unlearning evaluation is structurally skewed: Why-type questions, which probe causal and relational knowledge, comprise less than 0.06% of CounterFact, 0.6% of ZSRE, and less than 1.3% of TOFU, MUSE, and WMDP-Cyber. This near-zero representation means that methods that fail on causal knowledge can score highly in aggregate, and this failure is undetectable without balanced evaluation. We present 5WBENCH, a balanced 5,000-sample benchmark with 1,000 examples per 5W category (Who, What, When, Where, Why), making causal unlearning failures quantifiable for the first time. Using 5WBENCH, we show that no existing baseline simultaneously achieves high forgetting and high retention on Why-type questions: aggressive forgetting degrades retained knowledge, while conservative methods fail to forget causal facts. Why-type difficulty stems from multi-hop reasoning chains (44% of Why entries vs. less than or equal to 2% for others) and gradient dilution over 40.1-token answer spans. We present MAAT (Multi-phase Adapter-Aware Targeted Unlearning), a three-phase framework operating on LoRA adapter weights, combining gradient-projected ascent, SVD rank-dimension pruning, task vector negation, and hybrid KL-hidden-state retain repair. MAAT is the first method to simultaneously achieve high forgetting and high retention on Why-type causal knowledge, reaching a new operating point on the forget-retain Pareto frontier. We make our code publicly available.

World models predict future observations from current experience and actions, yet prediction can depend on observations seen far in the past. Episodic memory preserves past observations for later recall; however, as memory accumulates, it raises a fundamental question: which memories are useful for the current prediction, and which available retrieval cues should be trusted to find them? This is challenging because fixed criteria based on recency, pose overlap, or visual similarity can be unreliable across environments and queries. We propose Future-Aware Recall (FAR), a framework that learns episodic recall from future-aware predictive supervision and adaptive multi-cue scoring. During training, FAR measures predictive utility by the conditional log-likelihood of the realized future given recalled context, approximated by negative diffusion prediction loss, and uses it to train a retriever that remains future-blind at inference. The retriever learns cue-specific relevance and automatically determines which available retrieval cues, such as time, pose, vision, and audio, to trust for each query when selecting memories. Across three complementary settings, FAR outperforms hand-designed recall even with the same retrieval cues, automatically adapts which available cues to trust, and recalls the right history as the world changes. Together, these results establish FAR as a flexible, principled approach to episodic memory access in world models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are deployed as autonomous agents in increasingly complex applications, where enabling long-horizon memory is critical for achieving strong performance. However, a significant gap exists between practical applications and current evaluation standards for agent memory: existing benchmarks primarily focus on dialogue-centric, human-agent interactions. In reality, agent memory consists of a continuous stream of agent-environment interactions that are primarily composed of machine-generated representations. To bridge this gap, we introduce AMA-Bench (Agent Memory with Any length), which evaluates long-horizon memory for LLMs in real agentic applications. It features two key components: (1) a set of real-world agentic trajectories across representative agentic applications, paired with expert-curated QA, and (2) a set of synthetic agentic trajectories that scale to arbitrary horizons, paired with rule-based QA. Our comprehensive study shows that existing memory systems underperform on AMA-Bench primarily because they lack causality and objective information and are constrained by the lossy nature of similarity-based retrieval employed by many memory systems. To address these limitations, we propose AMA-Agent, an effective memory system featuring a causality graph and tool-augmented retrieval. Our results demonstrate that AMA-Agent achieves 57.22% average accuracy on AMA-Bench, surpassing the strongest memory system baselines by 11.16%.

Understanding how events in a scenario causally connect with each other is important for effectively modeling and reasoning about events. But event reasoning remains a difficult challenge, and despite recent advances, Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle to accurately identify causal connections between events. This struggle leads to poor performance on deeper reasoning tasks like event forecasting and timeline understanding. To address this challenge, we investigate the generation of causal event graphs (e.g., A enables B) as a parallel mechanism to help LLMs explicitly represent causality during inference. This paper evaluates both how to generate correct graphs as well as how graphs can assist reasoning. We propose a collaborative approach to causal graph generation where we use LLMs to simulate experts that focus on specific semantic relations. The experts engage in multiple rounds of discussions which are then consolidated by a final expert. Then, to demonstrate the utility of causal graphs, we use them on multiple downstream applications, and also introduce a new explainable event prediction task that requires a causal chain of events in the explanation. These explanations are more informative and coherent than baseline generations. Finally, our overall approach not finetuned on any downstream task, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art models on both forecasting and next event prediction tasks.

Long-term memory enables LLM-based agents to retain and reuse information across tasks and sessions, supporting personalization and long-horizon interactions. However, persistent memories can also induce sycophancy, causing agents to over-align with users' historical beliefs even when they are inaccurate, outdated, or inconsistent with objective evidence. Existing mitigation methods assume that memory-induced sycophancy originates from biased or incorrect memories and attempt to reduce this risk by filtering such memories at different stages of the memory pipeline. However, in the real world, objective and correct memories can still induce sycophancy, and the same memory can warrant different influence across different contexts. To this end, we propose MemAdapter, a novel framework that adaptively integrates retrieved memories to support objective and reliable reasoning. Specifically, MemAdapter consists of three components: (i) Counterfactual Induction, which leverages counterfactual reasoning to uncover the potential risk of retrieved memories; (ii) Context-Aware Reflection, which calibrates the inferential influence of each retrieved memory in light of the current task via self-reflection; and (iii) Evidence-Based Reasoning, which grounds the final response in appropriate evidence while preserving the legitimate influence of memory. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that MemAdapter consistently improves memory reliability across diverse scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/DEEP-JLU/MemAdapter.

Effective memory management is essential for large language model (LLM) agents handling long-term interactions. Current memory frameworks typically treat agents as passive "recorders" and retrieve information without understanding its deeper implications. They may fail in scenarios requiring conflict detection and complex decision-making. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a novel actionable memory framework called ActMem that integrates memory retrieval with active causal reasoning. ActMem transforms unstructured dialogue history into a structured causal and semantic graph. By leveraging counterfactual reasoning and commonsense completion, it enables agents to deduce implicit constraints and resolve potential conflicts between past states and current intentions. Furthermore, we introduce a comprehensive dataset ActMemEval to evaluate agent reasoning capabilities in logic-driven scenarios, moving beyond the fact-retrieval focus of existing memory benchmarks. Experiments demonstrate that ActMem significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in handling complex, memory-dependent tasks, paving the way for more consistent and reliable intelligent assistants.

Transformers achieve strong language modeling performance by providing direct token-to-token communication paths, but causal self-attention scales quadratically with context length. Recurrent and state-space models reduce this cost, yet compress history into sequentially updated fixed-size states. This paper studies a third primitive: a parallel content-addressed memory over causal successor records. The proposed Parallel Causal Associative Field (PCAF) writes local records from a context window into hash buckets, retrieves a bounded candidate set for the current query, forms a sparse cache distribution over successor tokens, and mixes that cache with a parametric local language model through a learned gate. The resulting model maintains sparse long-context access while avoiding a single fixed recurrent state bottleneck. We evaluate PCAF under full autoregressive pretraining on WikiText-103 and PG-19 using a distributed Google Cloud TPU v4-32 pod. At 303M parameters and context length T = 2048, PCAF-semantic reaches 36.31 perplexity on WikiText-103 and 52.45 perplexity on PG-19, compared with 47.49 and 53.84 for a matched dense Transformer. PCAF-semantic simultaneously processes 0.61-0.62M tokens/s across the TPU pod, versus 0.43M tokens/s for dense and local attention baselines. Supporting 41M-parameter multi-seed sweeps and single-GPU component ablations show that the associative cache, retrieval capacity, and learned gate materially affect the speed-quality trade-off.

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

As Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) shifts toward diverse portfolio generation, it is stymied by two critical bottlenecks: flawed measurement of evidence utilization, and suboptimal context budget allocation. We resolve both sequentially. To resolve measurement, we expose a pervasive ``diagnostic illusion'': standard relevance proxies fail catastrophically on hard negatives. We replace them with an efficient causal leave-one-out probe that accurately isolates generative reliance and formally calibrates the structural dilution of LLM attention. To resolve allocation, we deploy this causal probe in a deconfounded factorial grid. We prove that the prevailing strategy of monolithic context widening is an architectural trap penalized by relevance decay. Instead, allocating compute iteratively across multiple sequential generations drives transformative portfolio recall gains of 16.7--20.5 absolute percentage points, scaling robustly up to 32B models. Finally, we unify these solutions into a deployable closed-loop submodular scheduler. Augmented by an attribution-steered contrastive decoder to override LLM attention inertia, our architecture systematically forces fresh evidence integration. By dominating classical open-loop baselines, we establish sequential, feedback-driven orchestration as the definitive paradigm for generative search. Our code, data, and causal measurement instruments are available at https://github.com/PeiYangLiu/ascp.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either explicit or implicit causal reasoning, yet there is a strong need for a unified approach combining both to tackle a wide array of causal relationships more effectively. This research proposes a novel architecture called Context Aware Reasoning Enhancement with Counterfactual Analysis(CARE CA) framework to enhance causal reasoning and explainability. The proposed framework incorporates an explicit causal detection module with ConceptNet and counterfactual statements, as well as implicit causal detection through LLMs. Our framework goes one step further with a layer of counterfactual explanations to accentuate LLMs understanding of causality. The knowledge from ConceptNet enhances the performance of multiple causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery, causal identification and counterfactual reasoning. The counterfactual sentences add explicit knowledge of the not caused by scenarios. By combining these powerful modules, our model aims to provide a deeper understanding of causal relationships, enabling enhanced interpretability. Evaluation of benchmark datasets shows improved performance across all metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. We also introduce CausalNet, a new dataset accompanied by our code, to facilitate further research in this domain.

Practical large language model (LLM) services may involve a long system prompt, which specifies the instructions, examples, and knowledge documents of the task and is reused across numerous requests. However, the long system prompt causes throughput/latency bottlenecks as the cost of generating the next token grows w.r.t. the sequence length. This paper aims to improve the efficiency of LLM services that involve long system prompts. Our key observation is that handling these system prompts requires heavily redundant memory accesses in existing causal attention computation algorithms. Specifically, for batched requests, the cached hidden states (i.e., key-value pairs) of system prompts are transferred from off-chip DRAM to on-chip SRAM multiple times, each corresponding to an individual request. To eliminate such a redundancy, we propose RelayAttention, an attention algorithm that allows reading these hidden states from DRAM exactly once for a batch of input tokens. RelayAttention is a free lunch: it maintains the generation quality while requiring no model retraining, as it is based on a mathematical reformulation of causal attention.

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability in various language tasks, especially with their emergent in-context learning capability. Extending LLMs to incorporate visual inputs, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as recognition and visual question answering (VQA). Despite increasing interest in the utility of LLMs in causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning, there has been relatively little work showcasing the abilities of LVLMs on visual causal reasoning tasks. We take this opportunity to formally introduce a comprehensive causal reasoning benchmark for multi-modal in-context learning from LVLMs. Our CausalVLBench encompasses three representative tasks: causal structure inference, intervention target prediction, and counterfactual prediction. We evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on our causal reasoning tasks across three causal representation learning datasets and demonstrate their fundamental strengths and weaknesses. We hope that our benchmark elucidates the drawbacks of existing vision-language models and motivates new directions and paradigms in improving the visual causal reasoning abilities of LVLMs.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

The ability to perform causal reasoning is widely considered a core feature of intelligence. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can coherently reason about causality. Much of the existing work in natural language processing (NLP) focuses on evaluating commonsense causal reasoning in LLMs, thus failing to assess whether a model can perform causal inference in accordance with a set of well-defined formal rules. To address this, we propose a new NLP task, causal inference in natural language, inspired by the "causal inference engine" postulated by Judea Pearl et al. We compose a large dataset, CLadder, with 10K samples: based on a collection of causal graphs and queries (associational, interventional, and counterfactual), we obtain symbolic questions and ground-truth answers, through an oracle causal inference engine. These are then translated into natural language. We evaluate multiple LLMs on our dataset, and we introduce and evaluate a bespoke chain-of-thought prompting strategy, CausalCoT. We show that our task is highly challenging for LLMs, and we conduct an in-depth analysis to gain deeper insights into the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our data is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalNLP/cladder, and our code can be found at https://github.com/causalNLP/cladder.

Understanding memorisation in language models has practical and societal implications, e.g., studying models' training dynamics or preventing copyright infringements. Prior work defines memorisation as the causal effect of training with an instance on the model's ability to predict that instance. This definition relies on a counterfactual: the ability to observe what would have happened had the model not seen that instance. Existing methods struggle to provide computationally efficient and accurate estimates of this counterfactual. Further, they often estimate memorisation for a model architecture rather than for a specific model instance. This paper fills an important gap in the literature, proposing a new, principled, and efficient method to estimate memorisation based on the difference-in-differences design from econometrics. Using this method, we characterise a model's memorisation profile--its memorisation trends across training--by only observing its behaviour on a small set of instances throughout training. In experiments with the Pythia model suite, we find that memorisation (i) is stronger and more persistent in larger models, (ii) is determined by data order and learning rate, and (iii) has stable trends across model sizes, thus making memorisation in larger models predictable from smaller ones.

Standard autoregressive language models generate text sequentially, but revision requires referring back to tokens in the input context or those already generated. Causal Edit Serialization (CES) is introduced as a framework for expressing such revisions within the same causal token stream. Special pointer tokens are paired with predicted source addresses, allowing insertion, deletion, replacement, copying and movement to be localized explicitly. A lightweight localization head and dual-index rotary position encoding support both address prediction and conditioning on previously emitted pointers, while retaining a standard causal attention mask. A pretraining procedure combines ordinary language modeling with serialized repairs derived from random corruptions, model-generated edits and repeated text. Across model scales and editing baselines, CES models demonstrate complete applied edits with modestly higher clean-text bits per byte than clean autoregressive models. Supervised and reinforcement-learning post-training provide a grammatical-error-correction proof of concept, producing more beneficial than harmful changes under reference-blind model judging. Correct repair programs also improve subsequent text prediction while the original context and its cached states are retained. CES provides a common interface for generation and localized revision, with potential extensions to iterative refinement and additional pointer-addressed transformations.

Recent attempts to combine large language models (LLMs) with causal discovery ask models to infer pairwise directions, propose graph structures, or inject language-model outputs as priors and constraints. These approaches promise faster analysis, but they also obscure whether a causal evidence is supported by data and assumptions or by textual associations, prompt artifacts and hallucinated mechanisms. We argue for a different role for agents in causal discovery. Agents should inspect data, retrieve context, explain method assumptions and clarify graph outputs, but they should not supply edges, orientations, priors, constraints or causal conclusions. We propose the principle that agents assist the workflow, while causal claims remain grounded in data, explicit assumptions, formal algorithms, diagnostics and user or domain-expert decisions. We instantiate this principle in causal-learn+, an online platform that coordinates data analysis, preprocessing, method recommendation, expert-knowledge incorporation, formal discovery and interpretation around the algorithmic ecosystem of causal-learn. A case study on Big Five personality data illustrates agent-assisted pipeline of causal discovery without turning language-model unreliability into causal evidence. The platform is available at causallearn.com.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) is a widely used approach for leveraging external context in several natural language applications such as question answering and information retrieval. Yet, the exact nature in which a Language Model (LM) leverages this non-parametric memory or retrieved context isn't clearly understood. This paper mechanistically examines the RAG pipeline to highlight that LMs demonstrate a "shortcut'' effect and have a strong bias towards utilizing the retrieved context to answer questions, while relying minimally on model priors. We propose (a) Causal Mediation Analysis; for proving that parametric memory is minimally utilized when answering a question and (b) Attention Contributions and Knockouts for showing the last token residual stream do not get enriched from the subject token in the question, but gets enriched from tokens of RAG-context. We find this pronounced "shortcut'' behaviour to be true across both LLMs (e.g.,LlaMa) and SLMs (e.g., Phi)

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by providing a language for describing how training data influences predictions, through a causal framework. Importantly, our framework bypasses the need to retrain expensive models and allows us to estimate causal effects based on observational data alone. Addressing the problem of extracting factual knowledge from pretrained language models (PLMs), we focus on simple data statistics such as co-occurrence counts and show that these statistics do influence the predictions of PLMs, suggesting that such models rely on shallow heuristics. Our causal framework and our results demonstrate the importance of studying datasets and the benefits of causality for understanding NLP models.

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

We investigate the mechanisms of factual recall in the Mamba state space model. Our work is inspired by previous findings in autoregressive transformer language models suggesting that their knowledge recall is localized to particular modules at specific token locations; we therefore ask whether factual recall in Mamba can be similarly localized. To investigate this, we conduct four lines of experiments on Mamba. First, we apply causal tracing or interchange interventions to localize key components inside Mamba that are responsible for recalling facts, revealing that specific components within middle layers show strong causal effects at the last token of the subject, while the causal effect of intervening on later layers is most pronounced at the last token of the prompt, matching previous findings on autoregressive transformers. Second, we show that rank-one model editing methods can successfully insert facts at specific locations, again resembling findings on transformer models. Third, we examine the linearity of Mamba's representations of factual relations. Finally we adapt attention-knockout techniques to Mamba to dissect information flow during factual recall. We compare Mamba directly to a similar-sized transformer and conclude that despite significant differences in architectural approach, when it comes to factual recall, the two architectures share many similarities.

Advances in generative models have improved video fidelity, enabling long-horizon generation, interactive world modeling, and evolving visual environments. Autoregressive (AR) video generation extends visual sequences through causal rollouts. However, a fundamental bottleneck emerges: as the generated sequence expands, practical models must operate under strictly bounded context windows, storage, and computational limits. Consequently, critical historical information, e.g., entity identities, dynamic states, and intervention-induced causal changes, often leaves the active context long before its relevance diminishes. Overcoming this limitation and maintaining temporal persistence constitutes a fundamental memory problem. We present a systematic and comprehensive review of memory mechanisms in AR video generation. We formulate memory operationally as persistent historical information maintained across outer AR steps, capable of influencing future generation even after the originating evidence is no longer locally accessible. Building upon this unified framework, we organize the literature through five complementary perspectives: (I) Forms, the representational carriers of history; (II) Functions, the specific semantic and physical information requiring preservation; (III) Operations, the lifecycle of writing, reading, updating, managing, and integrating memory; (IV) Learning, the optimization of memory behaviors under closed-loop rollouts; and (V) Evaluation, the paradigms for diagnosing genuine memory capabilities. We conclude by synthesizing open challenges, including composable and resource-aware memory architectures, trustworthy state updating, self-rollout learning, and standardized evaluation. By bridging representations, mechanisms, and learning paradigms, this paper establishes a structured foundation for developing reliable, memory-conditioned video generation systems.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

Causal relation extraction (CRE) is central to biomedical text mining, but current resources often conflate causal relations with broader associations, restrict annotation to sentence-level examples, or focus mainly on explicit causal cues. This limits their usefulness for evaluating whether models can recover causal claims as they are actually expressed in biomedical text. We introduce PubMedCausal, a span-level annotated corpus for biomedical CRE built from PubMed abstracts. The corpus contains 30,000 paragraph-level rows, including 3,945 causal rows and 6,491 adjudicated cause--effect pairs. Each causal relation is annotated with full-text cause and effect spans, causality type, and sententiality, enabling evaluation of both causal detection and full-span causal extraction. We benchmark discriminative encoders and open-source generative models across detection and extraction settings. For causal detection, biomedical encoders are strongest, with PubMedBERT reaching an F_1 score of 0.7391. For span-level extraction, the best generative baseline is DeepSeek-R1-32B with few-shot prompting, reaching a Cosine Pair F_1 of 0.6765. We further test transfer learning by evaluating PubMedCausal-trained encoders on external causal relation datasets, showing that the resource supports cross-dataset evaluation. Our results show that biomedical CRE remains difficult under class imbalance, long causal spans, implicit causality, inter-sentential relations, and prompt sensitivity. Code and Data can be found here: https://github.com/josiahpaul07/PubMedCausal_Exp

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) has enhanced large language models by enabling access to external knowledge, with graph-based RAG emerging as a powerful paradigm for structured retrieval and reasoning. However, existing graph-based methods often over-rely on surface-level node matching and lack explicit causal modeling, leading to unfaithful or spurious answers. Prior attempts to incorporate causality are typically limited to local or single-document contexts and also suffer from information isolation that arises from modular graph structures, which hinders scalability and cross-module causal reasoning. To address these challenges, we propose HugRAG, a framework that rethinks knowledge organization for graph-based RAG through causal gating across hierarchical modules. HugRAG explicitly models causal relationships to suppress spurious correlations while enabling scalable reasoning over large-scale knowledge graphs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HugRAG consistently outperforms competitive graph-based RAG baselines across multiple datasets and evaluation metrics. Our work establishes a principled foundation for structured, scalable, and causally grounded RAG systems.

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 400K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.

Large language model (LLM) agents often struggle in long-context interactions. As the agent accumulates more interaction history, context management approaches such as sliding window and prompt compression may omit earlier structured information that later steps rely on. Recent retrieval-based memory systems surface relevant content but still overlook the causal and logical structure needed for multi-step reasoning. We introduce ContextWeaver, a selective and dependency-structured memory framework that organizes an agent's interaction trace into a graph of reasoning steps and selects the relevant context for future actions. Unlike prior context management approaches, ContextWeaver supports: (1) dependency-based construction and traversal that link each step to the earlier steps it relies on; (2) compact dependency summarization that condenses root-to-step reasoning paths into reusable units; and (3) a lightweight validation layer that incorporates execution feedback. On the SWE-Bench Verified and Lite benchmarks, ContextWeaver improves performance over a sliding-window baseline in pass@1, while reducing reasoning steps and token usage. Our observations suggest that modeling logical dependencies provides a stable and scalable memory mechanism for LLM agents that use tools.

Recent work demonstrated Transformers' ability to efficiently copy strings of exponential sizes, distinguishing them from other architectures. We present the Causal Relation Network (CausalRN), an all-MLP sequence modeling architecture that can match Transformers on the copying task. Extending Relation Networks (RNs), we implemented key innovations to support autoregressive sequence modeling while maintaining computational feasibility. We discovered that exponentially-activated RNs are reducible to linear time complexity, and pre-activation normalization induces an infinitely growing memory pool, similar to a KV cache. In ablation study, we found both exponential activation and pre-activation normalization are indispensable for Transformer-level copying. Our findings provide new insights into what actually constitutes strong in-context retrieval.

Language models (LMs) can make a correct prediction based on many possible signals in a prompt, not all corresponding to recall of factual associations. However, current interpretations of LMs fail to take this into account. For example, given the query "Astrid Lindgren was born in" with the corresponding completion "Sweden", no difference is made between whether the prediction was based on knowing where the author was born or assuming that a person with a Swedish-sounding name was born in Sweden. In this paper, we present a model-specific recipe - PrISM - for constructing datasets with examples of four different prediction scenarios: generic language modeling, guesswork, heuristics recall and exact fact recall. We apply two popular interpretability methods to the scenarios: causal tracing (CT) and information flow analysis. We find that both yield distinct results for each scenario. Results for exact fact recall and generic language modeling scenarios confirm previous conclusions about the importance of mid-range MLP sublayers for fact recall, while results for guesswork and heuristics indicate a critical role of late last token position MLP sublayers. In summary, we contribute resources for a more extensive and granular study of fact completion in LMs, together with analyses that provide a more nuanced understanding of how LMs process fact-related queries.

Understanding and reasoning about the physical world is the foundation of intelligent behavior, yet state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) still fail at causal physical reasoning, often producing plausible but incorrect answers. To address this gap, we introduce CausalPhys, a benchmark of over 3,000 carefully curated video- and image-based questions spanning four domains: Perception, Anticipation, Intervention, and Goal Orientation. Each question is paired with an expert-annotated causal graph capturing object-attribute-event dependencies, enabling interpretable and fine-grained evaluation of causal understanding. Building on this, we formulate a causal-graph-grounded metric that quantitatively measures how well a model's chain-of-thought reasoning aligns with the correct causal relations, moving beyond answer-only accuracy and enabling systematic diagnosis of VLMs' causal reasoning failures. Using this metric, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of leading VLMs, revealing systematic gaps in capturing causal dependencies and underscoring the need for causality-aware learning. To address these limitations, we further propose Causal Rationale-informed Fine-Tuning (CRFT), which explicitly aligns VLM reasoning with causal structures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRFT substantially enhances both reasoning accuracy and interpretability across multiple model backbones. By unifying dataset curation, causal evaluation, and causality-informed learning, CausalPhys establishes a strong foundation for advancing modern VLMs toward causally grounded physical reasoning.

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

Causal reasoning in natural language requires identifying relevant variables, understanding their interactions, and reasoning about effects and interventions, often under noisy or ambiguous conditions. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general reasoning abilities, they struggle to disentangle correlation from causation, particularly when observations are partially incorrect or irrelevant information is present. In this work, we introduce NoisyCausal, a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal reasoning under structured noise. Each instance is generated from a ground-truth causal graph and contextualized with a natural language scenario by injecting controllable forms of noise, such as irrelevant distractors, value perturbations, confounding, and partial observability. Moreover, we propose a modular reasoning framework that combines LLMs with explicit causal structure to address these challenges. Our method prompts the LLM to extract variables, construct a causal graph from context, and then reformulates the reasoning task as a structured prompt grounded in this graph. Rather than relying on statistical patterns alone, the LLM is guided by symbolic structure, enabling more interpretable and robust inference. Experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms standard prompting and reasoning baselines on NoisyCausal. Furthermore, it generalizes well to external benchmarks such as Cladder without task-specific tuning. Our findings highlight the importance of combining causal abstractions with language-driven reasoning to achieve faithful and robust causal understanding in LLMs.

Revealing hidden causal variables alongside the underlying causal mechanisms is essential to the development of science. Despite the progress in the past decades, existing practice in causal discovery (CD) heavily relies on high-quality measured variables, which are usually given by human experts. In fact, the lack of well-defined high-level variables behind unstructured data has been a longstanding roadblock to a broader real-world application of CD. This procedure can naturally benefit from an automated process that can suggest potential hidden variables in the system. Interestingly, Large language models (LLMs) are trained on massive observations of the world and have demonstrated great capability in processing unstructured data. To leverage the power of LLMs, we develop a new framework termed Causal representatiOn AssistanT (COAT) that incorporates the rich world knowledge of LLMs to propose useful measured variables for CD with respect to high-value target variables on their paired unstructured data. Instead of directly inferring causality with LLMs, COAT constructs feedback from intermediate CD results to LLMs to refine the proposed variables. Given the target variable and the paired unstructured data, we first develop COAT-MB that leverages the predictivity of the proposed variables to iteratively uncover the Markov Blanket of the target variable. Built upon COAT-MB, COAT-PAG further extends to uncover a more complete causal graph, i.e., Partial Ancestral Graph, by iterating over the target variables and actively seeking new high-level variables. Moreover, the reliable CD capabilities of COAT also extend the debiased causal inference to unstructured data by discovering an adjustment set. We establish theoretical guarantees for the CD results and verify their efficiency and reliability across realistic benchmarks and real-world case studies.

Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate. We introduce HEPA (Horizon-conditioned Event Predictive Architecture), built on two key principles. First, a causal Transformer encoder is pretrained via a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA): a horizon-conditioned predictor learns to forecast future representations rather than future values, forcing the encoder to capture predictable temporal dynamics from unlabeled data alone. Second, we freeze the encoder and finetune only the predictor toward the target event, producing a monotonic survival cumulative distribution function (CDF) over horizons. With fixed architecture and optimiser hyperparameters across all benchmarks, HEPA handles water contamination, cyberattack detection, volatility regimes, and eight further event types across 11 domains, exceeding leading time-series architectures including PatchTST, iTransformer, MAE, and Chronos-2 on at least 10 of 14 benchmarks, with an order of magnitude fewer tuned parameters and, on lifecycle datasets, an order of magnitude less labeled data.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently memorize sensitive information during training, posing risks when deploying publicly accessible models. Current machine unlearning methods struggle to selectively remove specific data associations without degrading overall model capabilities. This paper presents our solution to SemEval-2025 Task 4 on targeted unlearning, which introduces a two-stage methodology that combines causal mediation analysis with layer-specific optimization. Through systematic causal tracing experiments on OLMo architectures (1B and 7B parameters), we identify the critical role of the first few transformer layers (layers 0-5) in storing subject-attribute associations within MLP modules. Building on this insight, we develop a constrained optimization approach that freezes upper layers while applying a novel joint loss function to lower layers-simultaneously maximizing forget set loss via output token cross-entropy penalties and minimizing retain set deviation through adaptive regularization. Our method achieves 2nd place in the 1B model track, demonstrating strong task performance while maintaining 88% of baseline MMLU accuracy. These results establish causal-informed layer optimization as a promising paradigm for efficient, precise unlearning in LLMs, offering a significant step forward in addressing data privacy concerns in AI systems.

Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.

Large language models deployed in the wild must adapt to evolving data, user behavior, and task mixtures without erasing previously acquired capabilities. In practice, this remains difficult: sequential updates induce catastrophic forgetting, while many stabilization methods rely on external procedures that are costly, brittle, or difficult to scale. We present TRC^{2} (Thalamically Routed Cortical Columns), a decoder-only architecture that makes continual adaptation a property of the backbone itself. TRC^{2} combines stacked cortical columns with a thalamic modulatory pathway for selective inter-column communication and a hippocampal pathway for event-selective retrieval, delayed surprise-based writing, and replay-driven consolidation. This design localizes fast plasticity while preserving a slower stable computation pathway. We further introduce a causal memory-update scheme and an online replay controller that adjusts consolidation strength from measured forgetting. Across a task-sequential language-modeling stream over C4, WikiText-103, and GSM8K, TRC^{2} consistently improves task-boundary modeling quality and substantially reduces cumulative forgetting relative to Transformer, Mamba, MoE, and DeepSeek baselines trained under the same pipeline. Ablations show that the thalamic and hippocampal components are central to the retention gains, while the full model remains competitive in throughput and training cost.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on external memory to support long-horizon interaction, personalized assistance, and multi-step reasoning. However, existing memory systems still face three core challenges: they often rely too heavily on semantic similarity, which can miss evidence crucial for user-centric understanding; they frequently store related experiences as isolated fragments, weakening temporal and causal coherence; and they typically use static memory granularities that do not adapt well to the requirements of different questions. We propose AdaMem, an adaptive user-centric memory framework for long-horizon dialogue agents. AdaMem organizes dialogue history into working, episodic, persona, and graph memories, enabling the system to preserve recent context, structured long-term experiences, stable user traits, and relation-aware connections within a unified framework. At inference time, AdaMem first resolves the target participant, then builds a question-conditioned retrieval route that combines semantic retrieval with relation-aware graph expansion only when needed, and finally produces the answer through a role-specialized pipeline for evidence synthesis and response generation. We evaluate AdaMem on the LoCoMo and PERSONAMEM benchmarks for long-horizon reasoning and user modeling. Experimental results show that AdaMem achieves state-of-the-art performance on both benchmarks. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Large Language Models (LLMs), despite their advanced linguistic capabilities, fundamentally lack an intuitive understanding of physical dynamics, which limits their effectiveness in real-world scenarios that require causal reasoning. In this paper, we introduce Causal World Model Induction (CWMI), a novel framework designed to embed an explicit model of causal physics within an LLM. Our approach incorporates a dedicated Causal Physics Module (CPM) and a new training objective called Causal Intervention Loss, encouraging the model to learn cause-and-effect relationships from multimodal data. By training the model to predict the outcomes of hypothetical interventions instead of merely capturing statistical correlations, CWMI develops a robust internal representation of physical laws. Experimental results show that CWMI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art LLMs on zero-shot physical reasoning tasks, including the PIQA benchmark and our newly proposed PhysiCa-Bench dataset. These findings demonstrate that inducing a causal world model is a critical step toward more reliable and generalizable AI systems.

Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

Autoregressive video generation aims at real-time, open-ended synthesis. Yet, cinematic storytelling is not merely the endless extension of a single scene; it requires progressing through evolving events, viewpoint shifts, and discrete shot boundaries. Existing autoregressive models often struggle in this setting. Trained primarily for short-horizon continuation, they treat long sequences as extended single shots, inevitably suffering from motion stagnation and semantic drift during long rollouts. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalCine, an interactive autoregressive framework that transforms multi-shot video generation into an online directing process. CausalCine generates causally across shot changes, accepts dynamic prompts on the fly, and reuses context without regenerating previous shots. To achieve this, we first train a causal base model on native multi-shot sequences to learn complex shot transitions prior to acceleration. We then propose Content-Aware Memory Routing (CAMR), which dynamically retrieves historical KV entries according to attention-based relevance scores rather than temporal proximity, preserving cross-shot coherence under bounded active memory. Finally, we distill the causal base model into a few-step generator for real-time interactive generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalCine significantly outperforms autoregressive baselines and approaches the capability of bidirectional models while unlocking the streaming interactivity of causal generation. Demo available at https://yihao-meng.github.io/CausalCine/

Causal discovery aims to recover directed causal relations from observational and interventional data, providing a basis for mechanistic understanding and reliable decision-making. Causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) seek to amortize this problem by mapping a dataset directly to a causal graph in a single forward pass, avoiding per-dataset testing, search, or optimization. However, existing CDFMs remain limited, often failing to consistently match strong classical methods, and we find that a key bottleneck is how causal pretraining tasks are constructed. Based on this observation, we propose TabCausal, a data-driven CDFM trained with broad causal pretraining over diverse graph priors, structural mechanisms, noise models, dimensions, sample sizes, and intervention regimes. A dynamic task construction strategy composes these causal environments into varied discovery tasks, enabling more transferable structural learning from observational and mixed-interventional data. On large-scale synthetic benchmarks, TabCausal achieves better macro-averaged performance than a diverse set of causal discovery baselines. To further bridge abstract synthetic generators and realistic causal reasoning scenarios, we introduce a protocol-guided and LLM-audited semantic causal environment benchmark, where domain-grounded SCMs generate interpretable observational and interventional datasets for out-of-distribution analysis. Across both synthetic and semantic environments, TabCausal demonstrates robust structure recovery, especially under interventional evidence, highlighting broad causal pretraining as a key ingredient for transferable amortized causal discovery.

Fairness for machine learning predictions is widely required in practice for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. Existing work typically focuses on settings without unobserved confounding, even though unobserved confounding can lead to severe violations of causal fairness and, thus, unfair predictions. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of causal fairness to unobserved confounding. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive bounds for causal fairness metrics under different sources of unobserved confounding. This enables practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their machine learning models to unobserved confounding in fairness-critical applications. Second, we propose a novel neural framework for learning fair predictions, which allows us to offer worst-case guarantees of the extent to which causal fairness can be violated due to unobserved confounding. Third, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in a series of experiments, including a real-world case study about predicting prison sentences. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to study causal fairness under unobserved confounding. To this end, our work is of direct practical value as a refutation strategy to ensure the fairness of predictions in high-stakes applications.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Transforming causal generative language models into bidirectional encoders offers a powerful alternative to BERT-style architectures. However, current approaches remain limited: they lack consensus on optimal training objectives, suffer from catastrophic forgetting at scale, and fail to flexibly integrate the vast ecosystem of specialized generative models. In this work, through systematic ablations on the Gemma3 and Qwen3 families, we identify the key factors driving successful adaptation, highlighting the critical role of an often-omitted prior masking phase. To scale this process without original pre-training data, we introduce a dual strategy combining linear weight merging with a lightweight multi-domain data mixture that mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Finally, we augment our encoders by merging them with specialized causal models, seamlessly transferring modality- and domain-specific capabilities. This open-source recipe, designed for any causal decoder LLM, yields BidirLM, a family of five encoders that outperform alternatives on text, vision, and audio representation benchmarks.

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.

Episodic memory plays a crucial role in various cognitive processes, such as the ability to mentally recall past events. While cognitive science emphasizes the significance of spatial context in the formation and retrieval of episodic memory, the current primary approach to implementing episodic memory in AI systems is through transformers that store temporally ordered experiences, which overlooks the spatial dimension. As a result, it is unclear how the underlying structure could be extended to incorporate the spatial axis beyond temporal order alone and thereby what benefits can be obtained. To address this, this paper explores the use of Spatially-Aware Transformer models that incorporate spatial information. These models enable the creation of place-centric episodic memory that considers both temporal and spatial dimensions. Adopting this approach, we demonstrate that memory utilization efficiency can be improved, leading to enhanced accuracy in various place-centric downstream tasks. Additionally, we propose the Adaptive Memory Allocator, a memory management method based on reinforcement learning that aims to optimize efficiency of memory utilization. Our experiments demonstrate the advantages of our proposed model in various environments and across multiple downstream tasks, including prediction, generation, reasoning, and reinforcement learning. The source code for our models and experiments will be available at https://github.com/junmokane/spatially-aware-transformer.

We analyze the storage and recall of factual associations in autoregressive transformer language models, finding evidence that these associations correspond to localized, directly-editable computations. We first develop a causal intervention for identifying neuron activations that are decisive in a model's factual predictions. This reveals a distinct set of steps in middle-layer feed-forward modules that mediate factual predictions while processing subject tokens. To test our hypothesis that these computations correspond to factual association recall, we modify feed-forward weights to update specific factual associations using Rank-One Model Editing (ROME). We find that ROME is effective on a standard zero-shot relation extraction (zsRE) model-editing task, comparable to existing methods. To perform a more sensitive evaluation, we also evaluate ROME on a new dataset of counterfactual assertions, on which it simultaneously maintains both specificity and generalization, whereas other methods sacrifice one or another. Our results confirm an important role for mid-layer feed-forward modules in storing factual associations and suggest that direct manipulation of computational mechanisms may be a feasible approach for model editing. The code, dataset, visualizations, and an interactive demo notebook are available at https://rome.baulab.info/

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used for temporal prediction, but their reliance on pretraining data raises contamination concerns, as accurate predictions on pre-cutoff test data may reflect memorization rather than reasoning, leading to an overestimation of their generalization capability. With the recent emergence of prompting-based unlearning techniques, a natural question arises: Can LLMs be prompted to simulate an earlier knowledge cutoff? In this work, we investigate the capability of prompting to simulate earlier knowledge cutoff in LLMs. We construct three evaluation datasets to assess the extent to which LLMs can forget (1) direct factual knowledge, (2) semantic shifts, and (3) causally related knowledge. Results demonstrate that while prompt-based simulated knowledge cutoffs show effectiveness when directly queried with the information after that date, they struggle to induce forgetting when the forgotten content is not directly asked but causally related to the query. These findings highlight the need for more rigorous evaluation settings when applying LLMs for temporal prediction tasks. The full dataset and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/gxx27/time_unlearn.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

Research community has witnessed substantial growth in the detection of mental health issues and their associated reasons from analysis of social media. We introduce a new dataset for Causal Analysis of Mental health issues in Social media posts (CAMS). Our contributions for causal analysis are two-fold: causal interpretation and causal categorization. We introduce an annotation schema for this task of causal analysis. We demonstrate the efficacy of our schema on two different datasets: (i) crawling and annotating 3155 Reddit posts and (ii) re-annotating the publicly available SDCNL dataset of 1896 instances for interpretable causal analysis. We further combine these into the CAMS dataset and make this resource publicly available along with associated source code: https://github.com/drmuskangarg/CAMS. We present experimental results of models learned from CAMS dataset and demonstrate that a classic Logistic Regression model outperforms the next best (CNN-LSTM) model by 4.9\% accuracy.

Causal representation learning (CRL) has garnered increasing interest from the causal inference and artificial intelligence communities due to its potential to disentangle complex data-generating mechanism into causally interpretable latent features by leveraging the heterogeneity of modern datasets. In this paper, we further contribute to the CRL literature, by focusing on the stylized linear structural causal model over latent features and assuming a linear mixing function that maps latent features to the observed data or measurements. Existing linear CRL methods often rely on stringent assumptions, such as access to single-node interventional data or restrictive distributional constraints on latent features and/or exogenous measurement noise. However, these prerequisites can be easy to violate in practice. In this work, we propose a novel linear CRL algorithm that, unlike existing methods, operates under weaker assumptions on environment heterogeneity and data-generating distributions while still recovering latent causal features up to an equivalence class. We further validate our new algorithm via synthetic experiments and an interpretability analysis of large language models, demonstrating both its superiority over competing methods in finite samples and its potential in integrating causality into understanding artificial intelligence. The source code is available at https://github.com/utulie/code_for_linear_crl_paper_creator.

Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structures from data and is fundamental to scientific reasoning and intervention-based decision making. Its evaluation relies heavily on structural causal models (SCMs), which specify a causal graph together with the mechanisms that generate data, yet existing studies differ substantially in graph families, mechanisms, and evaluation protocols. The emergence of causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) further complicates evaluation: performance may reflect not only causal discovery ability, but also overlap between pretraining environments and test SCMs, making results on fixed synthetic benchmarks difficult to interpret. We introduce CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery under a common protocol. Synthetic SCMs supply controlled breadth over structures and mechanisms; semantic operational SCMs provide human-auditable, semantically grounded environments beyond standard synthetic generators; and formula-grounded SCMs test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms. Public real-world datasets provide an additional external-validity check. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained methods reveal substantial ranking shifts across SCM families and protocols, showing that strong performance in one benchmark regime does not reliably transfer to others. These results highlight benchmark diversity and pretraining--evaluation overlap as central challenges for evaluating causal discovery in the foundation model era.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

Causal graphs provide a high-level language for making mechanisms transparent. Recent work uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to recover causal graphs of external-world processes. Instead, in this paper, we use causal graphs to model LLM inference itself, providing stakeholders with a transparent view of how the model perceives and organizes high-level concepts to produce a prediction. We propose a four-phase method for constructing such graphs. Given a target LLM and a set of textual examples, our method discovers class-discriminative, human-interpretable concepts and maps each input to LLM-perceived concept states. We then introduce an MCMC-inspired counterfactual augmentation procedure that expands the sparse observational data through chains of counterfactuals. This enables stable causal discovery with σ-CG, yielding informative, interpretable graphs. We apply our method to three LLMs across disease diagnosis, sentiment analysis, and LLM-as-a-judge classification tasks. We evaluate the learned graphs for predictive fidelity and structural stability, and the MCMC-inspired augmentation for convergence and downstream utility. Our results show that the discovered causal graphs capture meaningful dependencies consistent with LLMs' reasoning. Together, this paper provides a foundation for concept-level explainability of LLMs.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

Contextual causal reasoning is a critical yet challenging capability for Large Language Models (LLMs). Existing benchmarks, however, often evaluate this skill in fragmented settings, failing to ensure context consistency or cover the full causal hierarchy. To address this, we pioneer METER to systematically benchmark LLMs across all three levels of the causal ladder under a unified context setting. Our extensive evaluation of various LLMs reveals a significant decline in proficiency as tasks ascend the causal hierarchy. To diagnose this degradation, we conduct a deep mechanistic analysis via both error pattern identification and internal information flow tracing. Our analysis reveals two primary failure modes: (1) LLMs are susceptible to distraction by causally irrelevant but factually correct information at lower level of causality; and (2) as tasks ascend the causal hierarchy, faithfulness to the provided context degrades, leading to a reduced performance. We belive our work advances our understanding of the mechanisms behind LLM contextual causal reasoning and establishes a critical foundation for future research. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/SCUNLP/METER .

We assess the ability of large language models (LLMs) to answer causal questions by analyzing their strengths and weaknesses against three types of causal question. We believe that current LLMs can answer causal questions with existing causal knowledge as combined domain experts. However, they are not yet able to provide satisfactory answers for discovering new knowledge or for high-stakes decision-making tasks with high precision. We discuss possible future directions and opportunities, such as enabling explicit and implicit causal modules as well as deep causal-aware LLMs. These will not only enable LLMs to answer many different types of causal questions for greater impact but also enable LLMs to be more trustworthy and efficient in general.

We introduce LimiX-2, a new model in the LimiX family, developed through model and data scaling guided by our previously established scaling laws. LimiX-2 adopts the Contextual Mechanism Networks (CMNs) paradigm and is pretrained with Context-Conditional Masked Modeling (CCMM). CMNs shifts the organizing principle of in-context learning from target-centric prediction to mechanism-oriented joint modeling. Rather than centering the network on the p(y mid x, D_{context}) objective of conventional tabular PFNs, it is designed around learning p(x, y mid D_{context}), a context-dependent representation of the joint structure underlying data generation. Pretraining uses synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) spanning diverse graph structures, functional mechanisms, and observation processes. Evaluations on TabArena, TALENT, and BCCO show that LimiX-2 outperforms current dataset-specific models and tabular foundation models. Beyond predictive performance, the CMN paradigm also promotes causal awareness in LimiX-2: its feature attention encodes direct causal relationships, enabling accurate causal skeleton recovery.

In recent years, discriminative self-supervised methods have made significant strides in advancing various visual tasks. The central idea of learning a data encoder that is robust to data distortions/augmentations is straightforward yet highly effective. Although many studies have demonstrated the empirical success of various learning methods, the resulting learned representations can exhibit instability and hinder downstream performance. In this study, we analyze discriminative self-supervised methods from a causal perspective to explain these unstable behaviors and propose solutions to overcome them. Our approach draws inspiration from prior works that empirically demonstrate the ability of discriminative self-supervised methods to demix ground truth causal sources to some extent. Unlike previous work on causality-empowered representation learning, we do not apply our solutions during the training process but rather during the inference process to improve time efficiency. Through experiments on both controlled image datasets and realistic image datasets, we show that our proposed solutions, which involve tempering a linear transformation with controlled synthetic data, are effective in addressing these issues.

Understanding and inferring causal relationships from texts is a core aspect of human cognition and is essential for advancing large language models (LLMs) towards artificial general intelligence. Existing work primarily focuses on synthetically generated texts which involve simple causal relationships explicitly mentioned in the text. This fails to reflect the complexities of real-world tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether LLMs are capable of inferring causal relationships from real-world texts. We develop a benchmark drawn from real-world academic literature which includes diverse texts with respect to length, complexity of relationships (different levels of explicitness, number of events, and causal relationships), and domains and sub-domains. To the best of our knowledge, our benchmark is the first-ever real-world dataset for this task. Our experiments on state-of-the-art LLMs evaluated on our proposed benchmark demonstrate significant challenges, with the best-performing model achieving an average F1 score of only 0.477. Analysis reveals common pitfalls: difficulty with implicitly stated information, in distinguishing relevant causal factors from surrounding contextual details, and with connecting causally relevant information spread across lengthy textual passages. By systematically characterizing these deficiencies, our benchmark offers targeted insights for further research into advancing LLM causal reasoning.

Memory is essential for enabling large language models to support long-horizon reasoning, yet existing memory systems remain unreliable and difficult to debug. Tracing memory's dynamic evolution is crucial to understand how information is synthesized, propagated, or corrupted over time. In this work, we study the new problem of error tracing and attribution in LLM memory systems. We propose a novel framework that transforms memory pipelines into executable memory evolution graphs, enabling fine-grained tracing of operational information flow. We then construct MemTraceBench, a benchmark collected from representative memory systems such as Long-Context, RAG, Mem0, and EverMemOS, to systematically study memory failure modes. We further introduce an automatic attribution method that iteratively traces operation subgraphs to pinpoint the root cause of any failed case. Our analysis reveals that memory failures are systematic, stemming from operation-level issues like information loss and retrieval misalignment. Crucially, we leverage these fine-grained attribution signals to guide downstream prompt optimization, establishing a closed-loop system that automatically corrects faults and boosts end-task performance by up to 7.62%. Code will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/MemTrace.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification-formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions-and estimation-implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 173 queries across 138 real-world datasets, curated from 85 peer-reviewed research papers and four widely-used causal-inference textbooks. For each query a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 84 % of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 30 %, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained on fixed snapshots of the web, which means that their knowledge becomes stale and their predictions risk temporal leakage: relying on information that lies in the future relative to a query. We tackle this problem by pre-training from scratch a set of GPT-style experts on disjoint two-year slices of a 2013-2024 corpus and combining them through TiMoE, a Time-aware Mixture of Language Experts. At inference time, TiMoE masks all experts whose training window ends after the query timestamp and merges the remaining log-probabilities in a shared space, guaranteeing strict causal validity while retaining the breadth of multi-period knowledge. We also release TSQA, a 10k-question benchmark whose alternatives are explicitly labelled as past, future or irrelevant, allowing fine-grained measurement of temporal hallucinations. Experiments on eight standard NLP tasks plus TSQA show that a co-adapted TiMoE variant matches or exceeds the best single-period expert and cuts future-knowledge errors by up to 15%. Our results demonstrate that modular, time-segmented pre-training paired with causal routing is a simple yet effective path toward LLMs that stay chronologically grounded without sacrificing general performance much. We open source our code at TiMoE (Github): https://github.com/epfml/TiMoE

Causal reasoning is viewed as crucial for achieving human-level machine intelligence. Recent advances in language models have expanded the horizons of artificial intelligence across various domains, sparking inquiries into their potential for causal reasoning. In this work, we introduce Causal evaluation of Language Models (CaLM), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the causal reasoning capabilities of language models. First, we propose the CaLM framework, which establishes a foundational taxonomy consisting of four modules: causal target (i.e., what to evaluate), adaptation (i.e., how to obtain the results), metric (i.e., how to measure the results), and error (i.e., how to analyze the bad results). This taxonomy defines a broad evaluation design space while systematically selecting criteria and priorities. Second, we compose the CaLM dataset, comprising 126,334 data samples, to provide curated sets of causal targets, adaptations, metrics, and errors, offering extensive coverage for diverse research pursuits. Third, we conduct an extensive evaluation of 28 leading language models on a core set of 92 causal targets, 9 adaptations, 7 metrics, and 12 error types. Fourth, we perform detailed analyses of the evaluation results across various dimensions (e.g., adaptation, scale). Fifth, we present 50 high-level empirical findings across 9 dimensions (e.g., model), providing valuable guidance for future language model development. Finally, we develop a multifaceted platform, including a website, leaderboards, datasets, and toolkits, to support scalable and adaptable assessments. We envision CaLM as an ever-evolving benchmark for the community, systematically updated with new causal targets, adaptations, models, metrics, and error types to reflect ongoing research advancements. Project website is at https://opencausalab.github.io/CaLM.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

In agent memory systems, the reranking model serves as the critical bridge connecting user queries with long-term memory. Most systems adopt the "retrieve-then-rerank" two-stage paradigm, but generic reranking models rely on semantic similarity matching and lack genuine reasoning capabilities, leading to a problem where recalled results are semantically highly relevant yet do not contain the key information needed to answer the question. This deficiency manifests in memory scenarios as three specific problems. First, relevance scores are miscalibrated, making threshold-based filtering difficult. Second, ranking degrades when facing temporal constraints, causal reasoning, and other complex queries. Third, the model cannot leverage dialogue context for semantic disambiguation. This report introduces MemReranker, a reranking model family (0.6B/4B) built on Qwen3-Reranker through multi-stage LLM knowledge distillation. Multi-teacher pairwise comparisons generate calibrated soft labels, BCE pointwise distillation establishes well-distributed scores, and InfoNCE contrastive learning enhances hard-sample discrimination. Training data combines general corpora with memory-specific multi-turn dialogue data covering temporal constraints, causal reasoning, and coreference resolution. On the memory retrieval benchmark, MemReranker-0.6B substantially outperforms BGE-Reranker and matches open-source 4B/8B models as well as GPT-4o-mini on key metrics. MemReranker-4B further achieves 0.737 MAP, with several metrics on par with Gemini-3-Flash, while maintaining inference latency at only 10--20\% of large models. On finance and healthcare vertical-domain benchmarks, the models preserve generalization capabilities on par with mainstream large-parameter rerankers.

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of processing lengthy dialogue histories during prolonged interaction with users without additional memory modules; however, their responses tend to overlook or incorrectly recall information from the past. In this paper, we revisit memory-augmented response generation in the era of LLMs. While prior work focuses on getting rid of outdated memories, we argue that such memories can provide contextual cues that help dialogue systems understand the development of past events and, therefore, benefit response generation. We present Theanine, a framework that augments LLMs' response generation with memory timelines -- series of memories that demonstrate the development and causality of relevant past events. Along with Theanine, we introduce TeaFarm, a counterfactual-driven question-answering pipeline addressing the limitation of G-Eval in long-term conversations. Supplementary videos of our methods and the TeaBag dataset for TeaFarm evaluation are in https://theanine-693b0.web.app/.

Predicting the motion of multiple traffic participants has always been one of the most challenging tasks in autonomous driving. The recently proposed occupancy flow field prediction method has shown to be a more effective and scalable representation compared to general trajectory prediction methods. However, in complex multi-agent traffic scenarios, it remains difficult to model the interactions among various factors and the dependencies among prediction outputs at different time steps. In view of this, we propose a transformer-based hierarchical feature guided network (HGNET), which can efficiently extract features of agents and map information from visual and vectorized inputs, modeling multimodal interaction relationships. Second, we design the Feature-Guided Attention (FGAT) module to leverage the potential guiding effects between different prediction targets, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, to enhance the temporal consistency and causal relationships of the predictions, we propose a Time Series Memory framework to learn the conditional distribution models of the prediction outputs at future time steps from multivariate time series. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits competitive performance, which ranks 3rd in the 2024 Waymo Occupancy and Flow Prediction Challenge.

Causal transformer language models (LMs), such as GPT-3, typically require some form of positional encoding, such as positional embeddings. However, we show that LMs without any explicit positional encoding are still competitive with standard models, and that this phenomenon is robust across different datasets, model sizes, and sequence lengths. Probing experiments reveal that such models acquire an implicit notion of absolute positions throughout the network, effectively compensating for the missing information. We conjecture that causal attention enables the model to infer the number of predecessors that each token can attend to, thereby approximating its absolute position. Our findings indicate that causal LMs might derive positional awareness not only from the explicit positioning mechanism, but also from the effects of the causal mask.

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by drafting multiple tokens and verifying them in parallel with the target model. However, its practical speedup is constrained by the trade-off between draft quality and drafting cost: autoregressive drafters model causal dependencies among draft tokens but incur sequential overhead, while parallel drafters reduce drafting cost but weaken intra-block dependency modeling. In this paper, we propose Domino, a speculative decoding framework that decouples causal dependency modeling from expensive autoregressive draft execution. Domino first uses a parallel draft backbone to produce preliminary draft distributions for the entire block, and then applies a lightweight Domino head to refine them with prefix-dependent causal information. To stabilize teacher-forced causal encoding, we further introduce a base-anchored training curriculum that first strengthens the parallel backbone and then gradually shifts optimization toward the causally corrected final distribution. Experiments on Qwen3 models show that Domino achieves up to \(5.49\times\) end-to-end speedup under the Transformers backend and up to \(5.8\times\) throughput speedup under SGLang serving.

Long-term memory supports the self-evolution of LLM agents by retaining experience and skills across tasks and enabling their retrieval, reuse, and revision in subsequent long-horizon decision-making. Yet existing memory management approaches remain limited to discriminative retrieval and to address the sparse, hierarchical, and highly redundant structure of reusable experience: only a small, task-dependent subset of trajectories and memories warrants retention, retrieval, or revision. Learning these operations is further complicated by sparse, delayed, and indirect task-level feedback, with weak supervision across the memory lifecycle. Moreover, continual memory evolution introduces an architectural tension as addressing invariance: stored experience is perpetually revised, yet the addressing interface consumed by learned retrieval policies must remain stable. To address, we present GenMem, which reformulates memory management as generative symbolic addressing. Its core mechanism is the Symbolic Identifier (SID), a multi-level discrete token tuple drawn from a Cartesian-product address space that factorizes a million-scale sparse memory space using fewer than one hundred discrete symbols. Instead of generating ever-changing raw content, the memory agent learns to generate SIDs, while memory evolution rewrites the payload at a fixed address without shifting the address itself. Architecturally, GenMem couples a MemRetriever and a MemEvolver within a multi-agent harness, trained via GRPO with dense process and outcome rewards with two-channels optimization. Under offline memory evolution, experiments spanning ALFWorld, WebShop, multi-hop QA, medical reasoning, and deep research evaluate GenMem against strong memory-augmented baselines...

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

Trajectory prediction models in autonomous driving are vulnerable to perturbations from non-causal agents whose actions should not affect the ego-agent's behavior. Such perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions of other agents' trajectories, potentially compromising the safety and efficiency of the ego-vehicle's decision-making process. Motivated by this challenge, we propose Causal tRajecTory predICtion (CRiTIC), a novel model that utilizes a Causal Discovery Network to identify inter-agent causal relations over a window of past time steps. To incorporate discovered causal relationships, we propose a novel Causal Attention Gating mechanism to selectively filter information in the proposed Transformer-based architecture. We conduct extensive experiments on two autonomous driving benchmark datasets to evaluate the robustness of our model against non-causal perturbations and its generalization capacity. Our results indicate that the robustness of predictions can be improved by up to 54% without a significant detriment to prediction accuracy. Lastly, we demonstrate the superior domain generalizability of the proposed model, which achieves up to 29% improvement in cross-domain performance. These results underscore the potential of our model to enhance both robustness and generalization capacity for trajectory prediction in diverse autonomous driving domains. Further details can be found on our project page: https://ehsan-ami.github.io/critic.

Few-step streaming audio--video generation requires both causal modeling and step distillation, yet standard training recipes face two context-related challenges. Teacher forcing pairs clean history with a noisy target, but supervises predictive contextual representations only indirectly through velocity prediction. Meanwhile, directly reusing bidirectional score models in causal Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) creates a mismatch between generation and scoring contexts. We address these challenges with Salt++, a two-stage post-training framework comprising Causal Self-Flow (CSF) and context-aligned autoregressive DMD. CSF exploits contextual information asymmetry by varying the history while keeping the noisy target fixed: a noise-mixed-history student aligns its intermediate representations with those of a clean-history exponential-moving-average teacher. This self-supervised signal encourages the student to extract semantic information and improves cross-modal alignment. Context-aligned AR DMD shares the causal mask and prefix across generator sampling, fake-score training, and real-score evaluation to match generated and reference distributions under a block-conditional KL objective. With calibrated teacher guidance, it performs clean-prefix few-step distillation and then adapts to generated histories without switching objectives or requiring separate consistency distillation. At 480p, Salt++ improves visual and motion quality by 57% and 45% over OmniForcing on JavisBench under the same 4-step causal setting. A separate scale-wise post-training stage extends Salt++ to 4-step 1664times960 generation, outperforming bidirectional LTX-2 on six of seven reported metrics. Project page: https://xingtongge.github.io/Saltpp

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have attracted significant attention for their strong reasoning ability. However, under a bidirectional attention mechanism, DLMs operate over an exponentially large exploration space compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), making it challenging to focus on reasoning-guiding tokens under random masking. We define causal shortcuts as token chains that cover the full sequence and provide explicit guidance towards correct reasoning trajectories. We analyze the effects of causal shortcuts on the reasoning accuracy and convergence speed of DLMs, and find that they largely improve answer convergence efficiency and generation accuracy. Motivated by this, we propose a Causal Shortcut Learning (CSL) Framework for DLMs. Specifically, we introduce a step-by-step token extraction procedure to extract causal shortcuts from data, and apply parallel prioritized masking on these tokens during training to enable efficient and accurate convergence to correct answers via causal shortcuts. Extensive experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks and two base models demonstrate that CSL consistently outperforms existing SFT-variant baselines, achieving an average improvement of 1.92% over SFT-only models, and up to 4.20% on MATH-500. The code is available at the https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning{https://github.com/ZJUDianJin/Causal-Shortcuts-Learning

Under a unified operational definition, we define LLM memory as a persistent state written during pretraining, finetuning, or inference that can later be addressed and that stably influences outputs. We propose a four-part taxonomy (parametric, contextual, external, procedural/episodic) and a memory quadruple (location, persistence, write/access path, controllability). We link mechanism, evaluation, and governance via the chain write -> read -> inhibit/update. To avoid distorted comparisons across heterogeneous setups, we adopt a three-setting protocol (parametric only, offline retrieval, online retrieval) that decouples capability from information availability on the same data and timeline. On this basis we build a layered evaluation: parametric (closed-book recall, edit differential, memorization/privacy), contextual (position curves and the mid-sequence drop), external (answer correctness vs snippet attribution/faithfulness), and procedural/episodic (cross-session consistency and timeline replay, E MARS+). The framework integrates temporal governance and leakage auditing (freshness hits, outdated answers, refusal slices) and uncertainty reporting via inter-rater agreement plus paired tests with multiple-comparison correction. For updating and forgetting, we present DMM Gov: coordinating DAPT/TAPT, PEFT, model editing (ROME, MEND, MEMIT, SERAC), and RAG to form an auditable loop covering admission thresholds, rollout, monitoring, rollback, and change audits, with specs for timeliness, conflict handling, and long-horizon consistency. Finally, we give four testable propositions: minimum identifiability; a minimal evaluation card; causally constrained editing with verifiable forgetting; and when retrieval with small-window replay outperforms ultra-long-context reading. This yields a reproducible, comparable, and governable coordinate system for research and deployment.

Long-horizon behavior prediction aims to infer a user's next action based on a lengthy historical sequence, playing a crucial role in artificial intelligence field. The rise of large language models (LLMs) offers a promising direction for sequential behavior prediction, yet LLMs struggle with latent behavioral pattern induction and model-intrinsic cognitive biases when tackling long-horizon behavior prediction. Prior memory management methods follow a context-compression paradigm that attempts to address this task by alleviating the historical sequence burden, yet fail to resolve the core challenges. In this paper, we advocate a paradigm shift that reframes the lengthy historical sequence from a burden into a valuable resource to be exploited, and accordingly propose PraMem, which conducts beforehand practice over the lengthy historical sequence to build an experiential memory, thereby serving as the assisted input for accurate long-horizon behavior prediction. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks demonstrate that PraMem achieves superior performance than prior methods, and more in-depth analyses provide valuable insights into the mechanism and evolution of the experiential memory. Code: https://github.com/icip-cas/PraMem.

A hallmark of life on Earth is the ability of agents to exert causal power and be drivers of subsequent events. This is key to cognition at all scales. Causal emergence, measuring the degree to which an agent exerts unique predictive power on its future, is one consequence of causal power. Indeed, recent discoveries have shown that biological agents, even minimal ones, increase their causal emergence after learning new memories. However, there is a major knowledge gap regarding how causally emergent artificial agents are. We focused on Reinforcement Learning (RL) of neural-network agents across an array of environmental conditions, encompassing different algorithms, agent architectures, and six environments arranged on a complexity spectrum. For consistency, we computed the causal emergence of their latent-space representations over their lifetimes. We used the recently proposed ΦID to estimate causal emergence and tested how it related to learning performance. Our results suggested a Causally Emergent Alignment Hypothesis: successful agents exhibited causal emergence that was consistently predictive of final reward early in training and whose representational dynamics aligned with reward improvement in most tasks. This idea suggests that causal emergence may be a previously undisclosed axis of reorganization of neural representations in RL agents, with the potential to establish causal relationships and interventions that will lead to better RL agents. Our work also highlights the alignment between causal emergence and learning as another way biological and artificial creatures compare.

Recent work, using the Biasing Features metric, labels a CoT as unfaithful if it omits a prompt-injected hint that affected the prediction. We argue this metric confuses unfaithfulness with incompleteness, the lossy compression needed to turn distributed transformer computation into a linear natural language narrative. On multi-hop reasoning tasks with Llama-3 and Gemma-3, many CoTs flagged as unfaithful by Biasing Features are judged faithful by other metrics, exceeding 50% in some models. With a new faithful@k metric, we show that larger inference-time token budgets greatly increase hint verbalization (up to 90% in some settings), suggesting much apparent unfaithfulness is due to tight token limits. Using Causal Mediation Analysis, we further show that even non-verbalized hints can causally mediate prediction changes through the CoT. We therefore caution against relying solely on hint-based evaluations and advocate a broader interpretability toolkit, including causal mediation and corruption-based metrics.

The structure of causal language model training assumes that each token can be accurately predicted from the previous context. This contrasts with humans' natural writing and reasoning process, where goals are typically known before the exact argument or phrasings. While this mismatch has been well studied in the literature, the working assumption has been that architectural changes are needed to address this mismatch. We argue that rearranging and processing the training data sequences can allow models to more accurately imitate the true data-generating process, and does not require any other changes to the architecture or training infrastructure. We demonstrate that this technique, Trelawney, and the inference algorithms derived from it allow us to improve performance on several key benchmarks that span planning, algorithmic reasoning, and story generation tasks. Finally, our method naturally enables the generation of long-term goals at no additional cost. We investigate how using the model's goal-generation capability can further improve planning and reasoning. Additionally, we believe Trelawney could potentially open doors to new capabilities beyond the current language modeling paradigm.

Despite the success of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in aligning language models, current reward modeling heavily relies on experimental feedback data collected from human annotators under controlled and costly conditions. In this work, we introduce observational reward modeling -- learning reward models with observational user feedback (e.g., clicks, copies, and upvotes) -- as a scalable and cost-effective alternative. We identify two fundamental challenges in this setting: (1) observational feedback is noisy due to annotation errors, which deviates it from true user preference; (2) observational feedback is biased by user preference, where users preferentially provide feedback on responses they feel strongly about, which creats a distribution shift between training and inference data. To address these challenges, we propose CausalRM, a causal-theoretic reward modeling framework that aims to learn unbiased reward models from observational feedback. To tackle challenge (1), CausalRM introduces a noise-aware surrogate loss term that is provably equivalent to the primal loss under noise-free conditions by explicitly modeling the annotation error generation process. To tackle challenge (2), CausalRM uses propensity scores -- the probability of a user providing feedback for a given response -- to reweight training samples, yielding a loss function that eliminates user preference bias. Extensive experiments across diverse LLM backbones and benchmark datasets validate that CausalRM effectively learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback and delivers substantial performance improvements on downstream RLHF tasks -- including a 49.2% gain on WildGuardMix and a 32.7% improvement on HarmBench. Code is available on our project website.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

Higher-level cognition depends on the ability to learn models of the world. We can characterize this at the computational level as a structure-learning problem with the goal of best identifying the prevailing causal relationships among a set of relata. However, the computational cost of performing exact Bayesian inference over causal models grows rapidly as the number of relata increases. This implies that the cognitive processes underlying causal learning must be substantially approximate. A powerful class of approximations that focuses on the sequential absorption of successive inputs is captured by the Neurath's ship metaphor in philosophy of science, where theory change is cast as a stochastic and gradual process shaped as much by people's limited willingness to abandon their current theory when considering alternatives as by the ground truth they hope to approach. Inspired by this metaphor and by algorithms for approximating Bayesian inference in machine learning, we propose an algorithmic-level model of causal structure learning under which learners represent only a single global hypothesis that they update locally as they gather evidence. We propose a related scheme for understanding how, under these limitations, learners choose informative interventions that manipulate the causal system to help elucidate its workings. We find support for our approach in the analysis of four experiments.

While Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning enables LLMs to solve challenging reasoning problems, as KV cache grows linearly with the number of generated tokens, CoT reasoning faces scaling issues in terms of speed and memory usage. In this work, we propose MemoSight (Memory-Foresight-based reasoning), a unified framework that integrates both context compression and multi-token prediction to mitigate the efficiency issues while maintaining CoT reasoning performance. Our framework adopts the same minimalist design for both context compression and multi-token prediction via special tokens and their corresponding position layout tailored to each token type. Comprehensive experiments on four reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that MemoSight reduces the KV cache footprint by up to 66% and accelerates inference by 1.56x, while outperforming existing CoT compression methods.