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Oct 16

LSTM Variants for Chaotic Dynamical Systems: An Empirical Study on the Lorenz Attractor

Forecasting chaotic dynamical systems such as the Lorenz attractor is notoriously difficult: small numerical errors are amplified exponentially over long autoregressive rollouts. We study seven recurrent and convolutional architectures for the AI-DEEDS 2026 Chaotic Systems Challenge: a vanilla LSTM, an LSTM with additive attention, a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), a BiLSTM trained with the Huber loss, a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), a CNN front-end followed by an LSTM, and a CNN front-end followed by a BiLSTM. All models share the same pre-processing, sequence length, and rollout procedure, isolating the contribution of each design choice. The challenge scores predictions on a 0-100 scale where higher is better. We obtain leaderboard scores between 45.72 and 58.81, with the BiLSTM trained with Huber loss being the strongest configuration. Two findings stand out: (i) adding additive attention to the unidirectional baseline degraded performance by over ten points, and (ii) prepending a CNN front-end to either an LSTM or a BiLSTM did not help and slightly hurt the score. Per-pair RMSE measurements confirm that the BiLSTM family generalizes better in the harder pairs (6-7), while the LSTM + Attention model collapses there (RMSE up to 8.94 on pair 6). We discuss why bidirectional context and a robust loss help in chaotic regimes while attention and CNN front-ends fail in this setting.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 20

Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 12, 2023

Mamba Integrated with Physics Principles Masters Long-term Chaotic System Forecasting

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

  • 5 authors
·
May 29, 2025

Generalized Teacher Forcing for Learning Chaotic Dynamics

Chaotic dynamical systems (DS) are ubiquitous in nature and society. Often we are interested in reconstructing such systems from observed time series for prediction or mechanistic insight, where by reconstruction we mean learning geometrical and invariant temporal properties of the system in question (like attractors). However, training reconstruction algorithms like recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on such systems by gradient-descent based techniques faces severe challenges. This is mainly due to exploding gradients caused by the exponential divergence of trajectories in chaotic systems. Moreover, for (scientific) interpretability we wish to have as low dimensional reconstructions as possible, preferably in a model which is mathematically tractable. Here we report that a surprisingly simple modification of teacher forcing leads to provably strictly all-time bounded gradients in training on chaotic systems, and, when paired with a simple architectural rearrangement of a tractable RNN design, piecewise-linear RNNs (PLRNNs), allows for faithful reconstruction in spaces of at most the dimensionality of the observed system. We show on several DS that with these amendments we can reconstruct DS better than current SOTA algorithms, in much lower dimensions. Performance differences were particularly compelling on real world data with which most other methods severely struggled. This work thus led to a simple yet powerful DS reconstruction algorithm which is highly interpretable at the same time.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 7, 2023

Chaos as an interpretable benchmark for forecasting and data-driven modelling

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 11, 2021

PathFM: Fast Generative Forecasting of Multivariate Trajectories

Time series foundation models are becoming increasingly popular for general-purpose forecasting. However, most leading models predict marginal quantiles, leaving the dependence structure of future trajectories unspecified. This distinction matters for trajectory-dependent quantities such as cumulative demand, peak load, and event timing, yet point and marginal scores do not reveal it. To model this dependence, we introduce PathFM, a trajectory-based forecasting model that uses flow matching to generate complete future paths. We further distill the model to one or two steps and share history attention cache across draws. Together, these enable PathFM to generate multiple paths for a single series in roughly the time needed for one query to a quantile model. The distilled sampler also makes it practical to optimize a calibration loss directly. PathFM achieves competitive marginal accuracy on the established forecasting benchmarks fev-bench and TIME. To complement these evaluations, we introduce Forecast Path Score Bench (fps-bench), which augments fev-bench tasks with energy and variogram scores and downstream metrics. PathFM achieves a higher aggregate path score on fps-bench than all evaluated external baselines. Experiments on chaotic systems further show that our flow model sustains long-run variability, while strong baselines rapidly collapse. PathFM makes generative time series forecasting both competitive and practical, enabling diverse downstream applications.

autogluon Autogluon
·
Oct 14 1

EMMA: Extracting Multiple physical parameters from Multimodal Data

We introduce EMMA, a physics-informed multimodal framework that recovers all identifiable dynamical parameters of a system directly from raw video, audio, and image-based time-series observations. Unlike prior video-only approaches that struggle with occluded states, hidden actuation inputs, or assumptions about known initial conditions and coordinate frames, EMMA performs joint inference of explicit parameters, implicit dynamical components, and calibration invariants within a unified continuous-time model. EMMA leverages a Liquid Time-Constant (LTC) network to learn latent dynamics from heterogeneous modalities while a physics-constrained loss enforces consistency with the governing differential equations. A unified feature pipeline enables consistent alignment across video trajectories, acoustic signatures, and chart-derived measurements, allowing EMMA to estimate parameters under forced, implicit, and multivariate dynamics without requiring segmentation masks, differentiable rendering, or specialized sensors. Across 100+ scenarios including five standard dynamical benchmarks (75 Delfys videos), real-world rover and quadrotor systems with hidden inputs, and simulation-chart case studies spanning biological and chaotic systems, EMMA delivers robust multi-parameter recovery and significantly outperforms existing single-modality and equation-discovery baselines. Our results establish EMMA as a general, scalable solution for physics-consistent model extraction from opportunistic multimodal data. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/ImpactLabASU/EMMA-CVPR2026

Separable neural architectures as a primitive for unified predictive and generative intelligence

Intelligent systems across physics, language and perception often exhibit factorisable structure, yet are typically modelled by monolithic neural architectures that do not explicitly exploit this structure. The separable neural architecture (SNA) addresses this by formalising a representational class that unifies additive, quadratic and tensor-decomposed neural models. By constraining interaction order and tensor rank, SNAs impose a structural inductive bias that factorises high-dimensional mappings into low-arity components. Separability need not be a property of the system itself: it often emerges in the coordinates or representations through which the system is expressed. Crucially, this coordinate-aware formulation reveals a structural analogy between chaotic spatiotemporal dynamics and linguistic autoregression. By treating continuous physical states as smooth, separable embeddings, SNAs enable distributional modelling of chaotic systems. This approach mitigates the nonphysical drift characteristics of deterministic operators whilst remaining applicable to discrete sequences. The compositional versatility of this approach is demonstrated across four domains: autonomous waypoint navigation via reinforcement learning, inverse generation of multifunctional microstructures, distributional modelling of turbulent flow and neural language modelling. These results establish the separable neural architecture as a domain-agnostic primitive for predictive and generative intelligence, capable of unifying both deterministic and distributional representations.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 12

A Low-complexity Structured Neural Network to Realize States of Dynamical Systems

Data-driven learning is rapidly evolving and places a new perspective on realizing state-space dynamical systems. However, dynamical systems derived from nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) suffer from limitations in computational efficiency. Thus, this paper stems from data-driven learning to advance states of dynamical systems utilizing a structured neural network (StNN). The proposed learning technique also seeks to identify an optimal, low-complexity operator to solve dynamical systems, the so-called Hankel operator, derived from time-delay measurements. Thus, we utilize the StNN based on the Hankel operator to solve dynamical systems as an alternative to existing data-driven techniques. We show that the proposed StNN reduces the number of parameters and computational complexity compared with the conventional neural networks and also with the classical data-driven techniques, such as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) and Hankel Alternative view of Koopman (HAVOK), which is commonly known as delay-Dynamic Mode Decomposition(DMD) or Hankel-DMD. More specifically, we present numerical simulations to solve dynamical systems utilizing the StNN based on the Hankel operator beginning from the fundamental Lotka-Volterra model, where we compare the StNN with the LEarning Across Dynamical Systems (LEADS), and extend our analysis to highly nonlinear and chaotic Lorenz systems, comparing the StNN with conventional neural networks, SINDy, and HAVOK. Hence, we show that the proposed StNN paves the way for realizing state-space dynamical systems with a low-complexity learning algorithm, enabling prediction and understanding of future states.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 30, 2025

From Entropy to Epiplexity: Rethinking Information for Computationally Bounded Intelligence

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 6

Respecting causality is all you need for training physics-informed neural networks

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. We provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier-Stokes equations in the turbulent regime. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 14, 2022

Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Time-Stepping in the Chaotic Gravitational Three-Body Problem

Many problems in astrophysics cover multiple orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales. While simulating systems that experience rapid changes in these conditions, it is essential to adapt the (time-) step size to capture the behavior of the system during those rapid changes and use a less accurate time step at other, less demanding, moments. We encounter three problems with traditional methods. Firstly, making such changes requires expert knowledge of the astrophysics as well as of the details of the numerical implementation. Secondly, some parameters that determine the time-step size are fixed throughout the simulation, which means that they do not adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the problem. Lastly, we would like the choice of time-step size to balance accuracy and computation effort. We address these challenges with Reinforcement Learning by training it to select the time-step size dynamically. We use the integration of a system of three equal-mass bodies that move due to their mutual gravity as an example of its application. With our method, the selected integration parameter adapts to the specific requirements of the problem, both in terms of computation time and accuracy while eliminating the expert knowledge needed to set up these simulations. Our method produces results competitive to existing methods and improve the results found with the most commonly-used values of time-step parameter. This method can be applied to other integrators without further retraining. We show that this extrapolation works for variable time-step integrators but does not perform to the desired accuracy for fixed time-step integrators.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 18, 2025

Bootstrapping Symmetries in Quantum Many-Body Systems from the Cross Spectral Form Factor

Symmetries play a central role in quantum many-body physics, yet uncovering them systematically remains challenging. We introduce a bootstrap framework designed to reconstruct the representation theory of hidden finite group symmetries of quantum many-body lattice Hamiltonians, using only a known symmetry subgroup N and spectral correlations between its symmetry sectors. We introduce a novel variant of the spectral form factor, the cross spectral form factor (xSFF), which we compute via exact diagonalization to seed the bootstrap algorithm. By applying the constraints derived from these data alongside the algebraic conditions of the fusion rules, our bootstrap procedure sharply restricts the set of candidate groups G. Remarkably, without any prior assumptions regarding the full symmetry group G, our method can systematically recover its representation-theoretic data, including the number and dimensions of the irreducible representations, their branching rules with respect to N, the fusion algebra, and the full character table. This framework applies equally well to chaotic and integrable many-body systems and accommodates both unitary and anti-unitary symmetries. Through various examples, we demonstrate that the underlying group G can be uniquely identified. In particular, our bootstrap independently recovers the Z_4 symmetry at the self-dual point of the three-state quantum torus chain, detects signatures of projective representations in the effective Hamiltonian of the driven Bose-Hubbard model, and rediscovers the η-pairing SO(4) symmetry of the one-dimensional Fermi-Hubbard model. Our framework thus establishes a practical route to identify symmetries directly from dynamical spectral observables.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 31

Discovery of interpretable structural model errors by combining Bayesian sparse regression and data assimilation: A chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky test case

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 1, 2021

Almost-Linear RNNs Yield Highly Interpretable Symbolic Codes in Dynamical Systems Reconstruction

Dynamical systems (DS) theory is fundamental for many areas of science and engineering. It can provide deep insights into the behavior of systems evolving in time, as typically described by differential or recursive equations. A common approach to facilitate mathematical tractability and interpretability of DS models involves decomposing nonlinear DS into multiple linear DS separated by switching manifolds, i.e. piecewise linear (PWL) systems. PWL models are popular in engineering and a frequent choice in mathematics for analyzing the topological properties of DS. However, hand-crafting such models is tedious and only possible for very low-dimensional scenarios, while inferring them from data usually gives rise to unnecessarily complex representations with very many linear subregions. Here we introduce Almost-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (AL-RNNs) which automatically and robustly produce most parsimonious PWL representations of DS from time series data, using as few PWL nonlinearities as possible. AL-RNNs can be efficiently trained with any SOTA algorithm for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR), and naturally give rise to a symbolic encoding of the underlying DS that provably preserves important topological properties. We show that for the Lorenz and R\"ossler systems, AL-RNNs discover, in a purely data-driven way, the known topologically minimal PWL representations of the corresponding chaotic attractors. We further illustrate on two challenging empirical datasets that interpretable symbolic encodings of the dynamics can be achieved, tremendously facilitating mathematical and computational analysis of the underlying systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 18, 2024

Deconstructing Recurrence, Attention, and Gating: Investigating the transferability of Transformers and Gated Recurrent Neural Networks in forecasting of dynamical systems

Machine learning architectures, including transformers and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have revolutionized forecasting in applications ranging from text processing to extreme weather. Notably, advanced network architectures, tuned for applications such as natural language processing, are transferable to other tasks such as spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, there is a scarcity of ablation studies to illustrate the key components that enable this forecasting accuracy. The absence of such studies, although explainable due to the associated computational cost, intensifies the belief that these models ought to be considered as black boxes. In this work, we decompose the key architectural components of the most powerful neural architectures, namely gating and recurrence in RNNs, and attention mechanisms in transformers. Then, we synthesize and build novel hybrid architectures from the standard blocks, performing ablation studies to identify which mechanisms are effective for each task. The importance of considering these components as hyper-parameters that can augment the standard architectures is exhibited on various forecasting datasets, from the spatiotemporal chaotic dynamics of the multiscale Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, as well as standard real world time-series benchmarks. A key finding is that neural gating and attention improves the performance of all standard RNNs in most tasks, while the addition of a notion of recurrence in transformers is detrimental. Furthermore, our study reveals that a novel, sparsely used, architecture which integrates Recurrent Highway Networks with neural gating and attention mechanisms, emerges as the best performing architecture in high-dimensional spatiotemporal forecasting of dynamical systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 3, 2024

Learning Chaos Without Seeing Chaos: Extrapolation of Global Dynamics in Autoregressive Transformers

Autoregressive models are trained to predict a system's behavior one step at a time, and recursive generation allows the learned dynamics to unfold over long horizons. To what extent can such dynamics learned from local observations recover broader organization of an underlying system that was only partially observed during training? Here we study small autoregressive transformers trained from scratch on trajectories sampled from restricted parameter regimes of several non-linear dynamical systems, including logistic and sine maps, the Lorenz system, and the generalized Hopf system, with control parameters and state trajectories represented as sequences of continuous tokens. Under closed-loop evaluation at parameters far outside the training distribution, the models can recover self-similar period-doubling cascades, chaotic dynamics, and attractor structures with remarkable visual and numerical fidelity. For the logistic map, a transformer reproduces successive period doublings up to period 128, yielding a finite-order scaling ratio of 4.6687, matching the Feigenbaum constant to within 5times10^{-4}. We further investigate how these structures emerge over the course of training, and reveal with causal interventions how control-parameter information is processed through attention into state prediction and shapes the resulting closed-loop dynamics. These results suggest that a surprisingly narrow window into a system's local behavior may suffice for autoregressive transformers to generalize to its unseen global dynamical organization.

Mapping the Chemo-dynamics of the Galactic disk using the LAMOST and APOGEE red clump stars

A detailed measurement is made of the metallicity distributions, kinematics and dynamics of the thin and thick disks, across a large disk volume (5.0 leq R leq 15.0 kpc and |Z| leq3.0 kpc), by using the LAMOST-APOGEE red clump stars. The metallicity distributions results show that the radial metallicity gradient Delta[Fe/H]/DeltaR of the thin disk weakens with |Z| from -0.06 dex kpc^{-1} at around |Z| < 0.25 kpc to -0.02 dex kpc^{-1} at around |Z| > 2.75 kpc, while the thick disk displays a global weak positive Delta[Fe/H]/DeltaR, generally weaker than 0.01 dex kpc^{-1}. The vertical metallicity gradient Delta[Fe/H]/Delta|Z| weakened steadily from -0.36 dex kpc^{-1} at R sim 5.5 kpc to -0.05 dex kpc^{-1} at around R > 11.5 kpc for the thin disk, while the thick disk presents an almost constant value (nearly -0.06 sim -0.08 dex kpc^{-1}) for all the R bins. These results indicate the contribution of the radial migration to the disk evolution, and the obvious north-south asymmetry in [Fe/H] may be linked to the disk warp and/or the disk perturbation events. The oscillations of the corrected Delta[Fe/H]/Delta|Z| with R are likely because of the resonances with the Galactic Bar. Our detailed measurements of DeltaV_{phi}/Delta[Fe/H] indicate an "inside-out" and "upside-down" star formation scenario for the thick disk. The results of eccentricity distributions and [alpha/Fe]--velocity dispersion relations are likely to suggest that the thick disk stars require an obvious contribution from other heating mechanisms such as merger and accretion, or born in the chaotic mergers of gas-rich systems and/or turbulent interstellar medium.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 4, 2024

SymTorch: Symbolic Distillation of Neural Networks

What mathematical functions do neural network components learn? Symbolic distillation addresses this question by expressing neural network components with interpretable, closed-form mathematical expressions that expose the functional structure learned during training. We develop symbolic distillation as a systematic, architecture-agnostic methodology, and release our approach as the open-source SymTorch package - a PySR-powered library built natively for the PyTorch ecosystem. Applying this methodology across diverse architectures, we find that SymTorch is successful in the automated discovery of physical laws. Specifically, our approach (1) recovers pairwise interaction forces from graph neural networks trained on empirical n-body observations, (2) distills the exact closed-form PDE/ODE solutions of multiple physical systems, including the value of constants, from physics-informed neural networks trained on sparse data, and (3) uncovers the chaotic dynamics of the Lorenz system from high-dimensional data, ultimately outperforming the base neural network on downstream prediction tasks. We further demonstrate the utility of our framework for model interpretability by providing an optimized implementation of SLIME - a symbolic extension to the LIME explainability method. SLIME consistently outperforms LIME across predictive metrics across eight popular classification and regression benchmarks, while still providing an interpretable local symbolic model. Lastly, we investigate replacing transformer MLP layers with symbolic surrogates: replacing 1-7 layers with symbolic approximations yields 2-19\% throughput improvements and up to 18.7\% VRAM reduction, with the resulting hybrid models lying on the Pareto front of throughput versus perplexity among open-source LLMs of comparable scale.

  • 3 authors
·
May 10

Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Exploring the Feasibility of Control Paradigms in Weather Foundation Models

Weather Jiu-Jitsu is a control paradigm for extreme climatological events, inspired by chaos theory. As a proposition, small, precise, targeted, and cost-inexpensive perturbations can redirect trajectories of a large dynamical system. This strategy has been demonstrated analytically in the Lorenz-63 system, where a naturally chaotic trajectory switching between two attractors can be confined to a single attractor, indefinitely, via arbitrarily small perturbations. This paper examines the feasibility of Microsoft's Aurora -- a 1.3 billion parameter global atmospheric model -- as a test bed for this strategy. This paper explores three questions: (1) Is Aurora a reliable enough simulation environment to serve as a meaningful testbed? (2) Are the perturbations required to redirect its trajectories small enough to be physically plausible? (3) Does Aurora's learned latent space (the parametric estimators on climatological attributes) yield any apparent, structured, and/or perhaps interpretable features that can convey a geo/atmospheric response to initial conditions? We find evidence consistent with all three: Aurora's modeled trajectories respond to perturbations beyond measurement drift, the perturbation magnitudes required are small relative to the model's own forecast uncertainty, and its latent representations exhibit directional structure that responds to Jiu-Jitsu-type interventions, even though that structure does not separate extreme from normal states outright. These results should be read as feasibility diagnostics rather than a demonstration of control: we do not implement or test an actual steering intervention on Aurora, and several of our findings, particularly around the model's latent-space geometry, are exploratory.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 29

From Chaos to Synchrony in Recurrent Excitatory-Inhibitory Networks with Target-Specific Inhibition

Biological neural networks can operate in qualitatively distinct dynamical regimes, and transitions between these regimes are thought to underlie changes in computation and behavior. The seminal work of Sompolinsky, Crisanti, and Sommers (SCS) showed that random recurrent networks undergo a transition from quiescence to asynchronous chaos, establishing a paradigmatic link between random connectivity, dynamical instability, and internally generated fluctuations in neural circuits. Here, we extend this framework to two-population firing-rate networks with segregated excitatory and inhibitory neurons and target-specific inhibitory couplings that break excitation--inhibition balance. Using dynamical mean-field theory, we derive self-consistent equations for the macroscopic mean activities and autocorrelations, together with stability criteria distinguishing mean-driven and fluctuation-driven instabilities. We show that target-specific inhibition organizes the phase diagram into three qualitative classes: inhibition-dominated or strictly balanced networks display only quiescent activity and asynchronous chaos; excitation-dominated networks display persistent activity together with either synchronous chaos with non-vanishing mean activity or coherent oscillations, depending on the stability-matrix eigenvalues. Crucially, coherent oscillations do not coexist with chaotic fluctuations around the periodic mean trajectory; rather, their onset suppresses the chaotic component, reminiscent of input-induced suppression of chaos. These results generalize SCS theory to recurrent networks with explicit excitatory--inhibitory structure and identify target-specific inhibition as a key control parameter for large-scale neural dynamics.

  • 4 authors
·
May 13

Resource supply dynamics control stability and chaos in complex ecosystems

Ecological interactions are often mediated by feedbacks between organisms and their resource environments. Yet, how resource supply dynamics dictate collective dynamical phases of an ecosystem remains unclear. Here, we analyse a generalised consumer--resource model with non-reciprocal interactions to demonstrate that self-renewing versus externally-supplied resources yield fundamentally different dynamical phase diagrams. As interactions become increasingly non-reciprocal, ecosystems relying on self-renewing resources transition from stable dynamics to chaos and ultimately to infeasibility. By contrast, ecosystems with externally-supplied resources remain stable over a broader parameter range and transition to infeasibility without experiencing an intervening chaotic phase. Using the cavity method, we derive a unified stability condition applicable to a broad class of resource supply functions, explaining why externally-supplied resources can expand the stable region. We show that stability hinges crucially on the susceptibility of resources to perturbations, which depends strongly on their supply. Further, we show that external resource supply suppresses chaos in the unstable region by drastically reducing the susceptibility of resources closest to extinction. Our findings demonstrate that resource dynamics fundamentally reshape the accessible dynamical behaviours of an ecosystem, with implications for interpreting microbial community experiments.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 30

Leslie Population Models in Predator-prey and Competitive populations: theory and applications by machine learning

We introduce a new predator-prey model by replacing the growth and predation constant by a square matrix, and the population density as a population vector. The classical Lotka-Volterra model describes a population that either modulates or converges. Stability analysis of such models have been extensively studied by the works of Merdan (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2007.06.062). The new model adds complexity by introducing an age group structure where the population of each age group evolves as prescribed by the Leslie matrix. The added complexity changes the behavior of the model such that the population either displays roughly an exponential growth or decay. We first provide an exact equation that describes a time evolution and use analytic techniques to obtain an approximate growth factor. We also discuss the variants of the Leslie model, i.e., the complex value predator-prey model and the competitive model. We then prove the Last Species Standing theorem that determines the dominant population in the large time limit. The recursive structure of the model denies the application of simple regression. We discuss a machine learning scheme that allows an admissible fit for the population evolution of Paramecium Aurelia and Paramecium Caudatum. Another potential avenue to simplify the computation is to use the machinery of quantum operators. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by computing the Hamiltonian of a simple Leslie system.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 20, 2024

The Deep Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos Neural Network or how Deep Artificial Neural Networks could benefit from Data-Driven Homogeneous Chaos Theory

Artificial Intelligence and Machine learning have been widely used in various fields of mathematical computing, physical modeling, computational science, communication science, and stochastic analysis. Approaches based on Deep Artificial Neural Networks (DANN) are very popular in our days. Depending on the learning task, the exact form of DANNs is determined via their multi-layer architecture, activation functions and the so-called loss function. However, for a majority of deep learning approaches based on DANNs, the kernel structure of neural signal processing remains the same, where the node response is encoded as a linear superposition of neural activity, while the non-linearity is triggered by the activation functions. In the current paper, we suggest to analyze the neural signal processing in DANNs from the point of view of homogeneous chaos theory as known from polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). From the PCE perspective, the (linear) response on each node of a DANN could be seen as a 1^{st} degree multi-variate polynomial of single neurons from the previous layer, i.e. linear weighted sum of monomials. From this point of view, the conventional DANN structure relies implicitly (but erroneously) on a Gaussian distribution of neural signals. Additionally, this view revels that by design DANNs do not necessarily fulfill any orthogonality or orthonormality condition for a majority of data-driven applications. Therefore, the prevailing handling of neural signals in DANNs could lead to redundant representation as any neural signal could contain some partial information from other neural signals. To tackle that challenge, we suggest to employ the data-driven generalization of PCE theory known as arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) to construct a corresponding multi-variate orthonormal representations on each node of a DANN to obtain Deep arbitrary polynomial chaos neural networks.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 26, 2023

Toward World Modeling of Physiological Signals with Chaos-Theoretic Balancing and Latent Dynamics

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

  • 11 authors
·
May 13

PECCARY: A novel approach for characterizing orbital complexity, stochasticity, and regularity

Permutation Entropy and statistiCal Complexity Analysis for astRophYsics (PECCARY) is a computationally inexpensive, statistical method by which any time-series can be characterized as predominantly regular, complex, or stochastic. Elements of the PECCARY method have been used in a variety of physical, biological, economic, and mathematical scenarios, but have not yet gained traction in the astrophysical community. This study introduces the PECCARY technique with the specific aims to motivate its use in and optimize it for the analysis of astrophysical orbital systems. PECCARY works by decomposing a time-dependent measure, such as the x-coordinate or orbital angular momentum time-series, into ordinal patterns. Due to its unique approach and statistical nature, PECCARY is well-suited for detecting preferred and forbidden patterns (a signature of chaos), even when the chaotic behavior is short-lived or when working with a relatively short duration time-series or small sets of time-series data. A variety of examples are used to demonstrate the capabilities of PECCARY. These include mathematical examples (sine waves, varieties of noise, sums of sine waves, well-known chaotic functions), a double pendulum system, and astrophysical tracer particle simulations with potentials of varying intricacies. Since the adopted timescale used to diagnose a given time-series can affect the outcome, a method is presented to identify an ideal sampling scheme, constrained by the overall duration and the natural timescale of the system. The accompanying PECCARY Python package and its usage are discussed.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 16, 2024

4D-VLA: Spatiotemporal Vision-Language-Action Pretraining with Cross-Scene Calibration

Leveraging diverse robotic data for pretraining remains a critical challenge. Existing methods typically model the dataset's action distribution using simple observations as inputs. However, these inputs are often incomplete, resulting in a dispersed conditional action distribution-an issue we refer to as coordinate system chaos and state chaos. This inconsistency significantly hampers pretraining efficiency. To address this, we propose 4D-VLA, a novel approach that effectively integrates 4D information into the input to mitigate these sources of chaos. Our model introduces depth and temporal information into visual features with sequential RGB-D inputs, aligning the coordinate systems of the robot and the scene. This alignment endows the model with strong spatiotemporal reasoning capabilities while minimizing training overhead. Additionally, we introduce memory bank sampling, a frame sampling strategy designed to extract informative frames from historical images, further improving effectiveness and efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that our pretraining method and architectural components substantially enhance model performance. In both simulated and real-world experiments, our model achieves a significant increase in success rate over OpenVLA. To further assess spatial perception and generalization to novel views, we introduce MV-Bench, a multi-view simulation benchmark. Our model consistently outperforms existing methods, demonstrating stronger spatial understanding and adaptability.

  • 11 authors
·
Jun 27, 2025

Limits and Powers of Koopman Learning

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 8, 2024

ATM Cash demand forecasting in an Indian Bank with chaos and deep learning

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 24, 2020

A Topological and Operator Algebraic Framework for Asynchronous Lattice Dynamical Systems

I introduce a novel mathematical framework integrating topological dynamics, operator algebras, and ergodic geometry to study lattices of asynchronous metric dynamical systems. Each node in the lattice carries an internal flow represented by a one-parameter family of operators, evolving on its own time scale. I formalize stratified state spaces capturing multiple levels of synchronized behavior, define an asynchronous evolution metric that quantifies phase-offset distances between subsystems, and characterize emergent coherent topologies arising when subsystems synchronize. Within this framework, I develop formal operators for the evolution of each subsystem and give precise conditions under which phase-aligned synchronization occurs across the lattice. The main results include: (1) the existence and uniqueness of coherent (synchronized) states under a contractive coupling condition, (2) stability of these coherent states and criteria for their emergence as a collective phase transition in a continuous operator topology, and (3) the influence of symmetries, with group-invariant coupling leading to flow-invariant synchrony subspaces and structured cluster dynamics. Proofs are given for each theorem, demonstrating full mathematical rigor. In a final section, I discuss hypothetical applications of this framework to symbolic lattice systems (e.g. subshifts), to invariant group actions on dynamical lattices, and to operator fields over stratified manifolds in the spirit of noncommutative geometry. Throughout, I write in the first person to emphasize the exploratory nature of this work. The paper avoids any reference to cosmology or observers, focusing instead on clean, formal mathematics suitable for a broad array of dynamical systems.

  • 1 authors
·
May 14, 2025

Linear equivalence of nonlinear recurrent neural networks

Large nonlinear recurrent neural networks with random couplings generate high-dimensional, potentially chaotic activity whose structure is of interest in neuroscience and other fields. A fundamental object encoding the collective structure of this activity is the N times N covariance matrix. Prior analytical work on the covariance matrix has been limited to low-dimensional summary statistics. Recent work proposed an ansatz in which, at large N, the covariance matrix for a typical quenched realization takes the same form as that of a linear network with the same couplings, driven by independent noise, with DMFT order parameters setting the transfer function and the noise spectrum. Here, we derive this ansatz using the two-site cavity method, providing two derivations with complementary perspectives. The first decomposes each unit's activity into a linear response to its local field and a nonlinear residual, and shows that cross-covariances between residuals at distinct sites are strongly suppressed, so the residuals act as independent noise driving a linear network. The second derives a self-consistent matrix equation for the covariance matrix. A naive Gaussian closure for the joint statistics of local fields at distinct sites misses cross terms that, in a linear network, would be generated by an external drive. The cavity method recovers these terms from non-Gaussian contributions, revealing an emergent external drive. Higher-order cross-site moments follow a Wick-like decomposition into products of pairwise covariances at leading order, reducing them to the linear-equivalent form. We verify the predictions in simulations. These results extend linear equivalence from feedforward high-dimensional nonlinear systems, where the activations are independent of the weights, to recurrent networks, where the activations are correlated with the couplings that generate them.

  • 1 authors
·
May 4

Uncertainty propagation in auto-regressive random neural network models

We develop analytical and particle-based methods for uncertainty propagation in random neural network models, where both the inputs and network parameters are allowed to be random. Building on the piecewise-linear structure of the Leaky ReLU activation function, we derive a local approximation of the neural network output with respect to perturbations in both its inputs and parameters. This approximation is exact for perturbations that preserve the network activation pattern, and it allows us to compute analytical expressions for the probability density function and characteristic function of the network output, together with closed-form approximations for its mean and covariance. We extend this uncertainty propagation framework to autonomous dynamical systems whose one-step evolution map is represented by a random neural network. Repeated application of this map defines an autoregressive model, for which we derive recursive equations to propagate uncertainty in both the state and network parameters over time. These equations explicitly account for the state-parameter cross-covariance that develops under successive iterations of the network. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation demonstrate accurate uncertainty propagation through the predictability horizon and the applicability of the proposed framework to high-dimensional dynamical systems.

  • 2 authors
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Aug 19

Semantic learning in autonomously active recurrent neural networks

The human brain is autonomously active, being characterized by a self-sustained neural activity which would be present even in the absence of external sensory stimuli. Here we study the interrelation between the self-sustained activity in autonomously active recurrent neural nets and external sensory stimuli. There is no a priori semantical relation between the influx of external stimuli and the patterns generated internally by the autonomous and ongoing brain dynamics. The question then arises when and how are semantic correlations between internal and external dynamical processes learned and built up? We study this problem within the paradigm of transient state dynamics for the neural activity in recurrent neural nets, i.e. for an autonomous neural activity characterized by an infinite time-series of transiently stable attractor states. We propose that external stimuli will be relevant during the sensitive periods, {\it viz} the transition period between one transient state and the subsequent semi-stable attractor. A diffusive learning signal is generated unsupervised whenever the stimulus influences the internal dynamics qualitatively. For testing we have presented to the model system stimuli corresponding to the bars and stripes problem. We found that the system performs a non-linear independent component analysis on its own, being continuously and autonomously active. This emergent cognitive capability results here from a general principle for the neural dynamics, the competition between neural ensembles.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 11, 2009

On Neural Differential Equations

The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 4, 2022

Nonlinear dynamics of a chemically-active drop: from steady to chaotic self-propulsion

Individual chemically active drops suspended in a surfactant solution were observed to self-propel spontaneously with straight, helical, or chaotic trajectories. To elucidate how these drops can exhibit such strikingly different dynamics and `decide' what to do, we propose a minimal axisymmetric model of a spherical active drop, and show that simple and linear interface properties can lead to both steady self-propulsion of the droplet as well as chaotic behavior. The model includes two different mobility mechanisms, namely, diffusiophoresis and the Marangoni effect, that convert self-generated gradients of surfactant concentration into the flow at the droplet surface. In turn, surface-driven flow initiates surfactant advection that is the only nonlinear mechanism and, thus, the only source of dynamical complexity in our model. Numerical investigation of the fully-coupled hydrodynamic and advection diffusion problems reveals that strong advection (e.g., large droplet size) may destabilize a steadily self-propelling drop; once destabilized, the droplet spontaneously stops and a symmetric extensile flow emerges. If advection is strengthened even further in comparison with molecular diffusion, the droplet may perform chaotic oscillations. Our results indicate that the thresholds of these instabilities depend heavily on the balance between diffusiophoresis and the Marangoni effect. Using linear stability analysis, we demonstrate that diffusiophoresis promotes the onset of high-order modes of monotonic instability of the motionless drop. We argue that diffusiophoresis has a similar effect on the instabilities of a moving drop.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 8, 2019

Dynamical phase diagram of synchronization in one dimension: universal behavior from Edwards-Wilkinson to random deposition through Kardar-Parisi-Zhang

Synchronization in one dimension displays generic scale invariance with universal properties previously observed in surface kinetic roughening and the wider context of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. This has been established for phase oscillators and also for some limit-cycle oscillators, both in the presence of columnar (quenched) disorder and of time-dependent noise, by extensive numerical simulations, and has been analytically motivated by continuum approximations in the strong oscillator coupling limit. The robustness and the precise boundaries in parameter space for such critical behavior remain unclear, however, which may preclude further developments, including the extension of these results to higher dimensions and the experimental observation of nonequilibrium criticality in synchronizing (e.g.~electronic or chemical) oscillators. We here present complete numerical phase diagrams of one-dimensional synchronization, including saturation times and values, but, most importantly, also dynamical features giving insight into the gradual emergence of synchronous dynamics, based on systems of phase oscillators with either type of randomness. In the absence of synchronization, the dynamics evolves as expected for random deposition (for time-dependent noise) or linear growth (for columnar disorder), while a crossover from Edwards-Wilkinson to Kardar-Parisi-Zhang behavior (with the corresponding type of randomness) is observed as the randomness strength, or the nonoddity of the coupling among oscillators, is increased in the synchronous region -- their combined effect being partially captured by the so-called KPZ coupling. The distortion of scaling due to phase slips near the desynchronization boundary, a feature that is likely to play a role in experimental contexts, is also discussed.

  • 2 authors
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Apr 6

Mechanistic Interpretability of RNNs emulating Hidden Markov Models

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful approach in neuroscience to infer latent dynamics in neural populations and to generate hypotheses about the neural computations underlying behavior. However, past work has focused on relatively simple, input-driven, and largely deterministic behaviors - little is known about the mechanisms that would allow RNNs to generate the richer, spontaneous, and potentially stochastic behaviors observed in natural settings. Modeling with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) has revealed a segmentation of natural behaviors into discrete latent states with stochastic transitions between them, a type of dynamics that may appear at odds with the continuous state spaces implemented by RNNs. Here we first show that RNNs can replicate HMM emission statistics and then reverse-engineer the trained networks to uncover the mechanisms they implement. In the absence of inputs, the activity of trained RNNs collapses towards a single fixed point. When driven by stochastic input, trajectories instead exhibit noise-sustained dynamics along closed orbits. Rotation along these orbits modulates the emission probabilities and is governed by transitions between regions of slow, noise-driven dynamics connected by fast, deterministic transitions. The trained RNNs develop highly structured connectivity, with a small set of "kick neurons" initiating transitions between these regions. This mechanism emerges during training as the network shifts into a regime of stochastic resonance, enabling it to perform probabilistic computations. Analyses across multiple HMM architectures - fully connected, cyclic, and linear-chain - reveal that this solution generalizes through the modular reuse of the same dynamical motif, suggesting a compositional principle by which RNNs can emulate complex discrete latent dynamics.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 29, 2025

Synchronization and Redundancy: Implications for Robustness of Neural Learning and Decision Making

Learning and decision making in the brain are key processes critical to survival, and yet are processes implemented by non-ideal biological building blocks which can impose significant error. We explore quantitatively how the brain might cope with this inherent source of error by taking advantage of two ubiquitous mechanisms, redundancy and synchronization. In particular we consider a neural process whose goal is to learn a decision function by implementing a nonlinear gradient dynamics. The dynamics, however, are assumed to be corrupted by perturbations modeling the error which might be incurred due to limitations of the biology, intrinsic neuronal noise, and imperfect measurements. We show that error, and the associated uncertainty surrounding a learned solution, can be controlled in large part by trading off synchronization strength among multiple redundant neural systems against the noise amplitude. The impact of the coupling between such redundant systems is quantified by the spectrum of the network Laplacian, and we discuss the role of network topology in synchronization and in reducing the effect of noise. A range of situations in which the mechanisms we model arise in brain science are discussed, and we draw attention to experimental evidence suggesting that cortical circuits capable of implementing the computations of interest here can be found on several scales. Finally, simulations comparing theoretical bounds to the relevant empirical quantities show that the theoretical estimates we derive can be tight.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 21, 2010

Stochastic CHAOS: Why Deterministic Inference Kills, and Distributional Variability Is the Heartbeat of Artifical Cognition

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

  • 10 authors
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Jan 12 2

Fluctuations and correlations in chemical reaction kinetics and population dynamics

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 3, 2018

Preliminary sonification of ENSO using traditional Javanese gamelan scales

Sonification -- the mapping of data to non-speech audio -- offers an underexplored channel for representing complex dynamical systems. We treat El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a canonical example of low-dimensional climate chaos, as a test case for culturally-situated sonification evaluated through complex systems diagnostics. Using parameter-mapping sonification of the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index (1870--2024), we encode ENSO variability into two traditional Javanese gamelan pentatonic systems (pelog and slendro) across four composition strategies, then analyze the resulting audio as trajectories in a two-dimensional acoustic phase space. Recurrence-based diagnostics, convex hull geometry, and coupling analysis reveal that the sonification pipeline preserves key dynamical signatures: alternating modes produce the highest trajectory recurrence rates, echoing ENSO's quasi-periodicity; layered polyphonic modes explore the broadest phase space regions; and the two scale families induce qualitatively distinct coupling regimes between spectral brightness and energy -- predominantly anti-phase in pelog but near-independent in slendro. Phase space trajectory analysis provides a rigorous geometric framework for comparing sonification designs within a complex systems context. Perceptual validation remains necessary; we contribute the dynamical systems methodology for evaluating such mappings.

SNIC bifurcation and its Application to MEMS

This project focuses on a method to extract a frequency comb in mechanical means, for general interest and numerous practical applications in MEMS. The method of execution is the implementation of a beam that is exhibiting non-linear dynamics that is perturbed and analyzed for its transverse vibrations. The perturbation is an external harmonic driver with a chosen small amplitude and frequency (which is slightly detuned from the beam eigenfrequency), that when engaged with the unperturbed beam oscillations, causes it reach a state of "injection pulling" - an effect that occurs when one harmonic oscillator is coupled with a second one and causes it to oscillate in a frequency near its own. This causes the beam to reach SNIC bifurcation, rendering a frequency comb as desired. Theoretical analysis showed that the problem can be modelled using a non-linear equation of the beam, that translates to a form of the non-linear Duffing equation. While a solution to the dynamics function of the beam is hard to obtain in practice due to mathematical difficulties, a slow evolution model is suggested that is composed of functions of a amplitude and phase. Using several additional mathematical assumptions, the amplitude is seen to be related to the phase, while the phase equation solution is seen to be of the form of Adler's equation. These assumptions ultimately reduce the entire behaviour of the beam to a relatively simple solution to the Adler equation, which has a known analytical solution. Computerized numerical simulations are run on it to check the results and compare them to the theory and desired outcome. The results agreed with the theory and produce the expected frequency comb, showing the assumptions to be valid in extracting the comb.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 24, 2025

ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 1, 2024

Evolving Many Worlds: Towards Open-Ended Discovery in Petri Dish NCA via Population-Based Training

The generation of sustained, open-ended complexity from local interactions remains a fundamental challenge in artificial life. Differentiable multi-agent systems, such as Petri Dish Neural Cellular Automata (PD-NCA), exhibit rich self-organization driven purely by spatial competition; however, they are highly sensitive to hyperparameters and frequently collapse into uninteresting patterns and dynamics, such as frozen equilibria or structureless noise. In this paper, we introduce PBT-NCA, a meta-evolutionary algorithm that evolves a population of PD-NCAs subject to a composite objective that rewards both historical behavioral novelty and contemporary visual diversity. Driven by this continuous evolutionary pressure, PBT-NCA spontaneously generates a plethora of emergent lifelike phenomena over extended horizons-a hallmark of true open-endedness. Strikingly, the substrate autonomously discovers diverse morphological survival and self-organization strategies. We observe highly regular, coordinated periodic waves; spore-like scattering where homogeneous groups eject cell-like clusters to colonize distant territories; and fluid, shape-shifting macro-structures that migrate across the substrate, maintaining stable outer boundaries that enclose highly active interiors. By actively penalizing monocultures and dead states, PBT-NCA sustains a state of effective complexity that is neither globally ordered nor globally random, operating persistently at the "edge of chaos".

  • 4 authors
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Apr 12