Daily Papers

Aligned language models gate behaviors such as refusal and language routing through sparse feed forward neurons, yet no theory predicts when a single neuron intervention controls a behavior coherently rather than collapsing the output. We develop a budget normalized control window framework for single neuron steering. A dose along one write direction reduces to one control coordinate: the alignment between the residual stream and the write, driven along a universal saturation curve in units of a coherence budget set by the residual norm divided by the write norm. Coherent control exists when a behavior trigger lies below the collapse ceiling. The same coordinate governs benign mode switches and refusal; the ceiling follows from weights and one generic forward pass, while triggers are measured at rollout. On fifteen held out neurons, the predicted ceiling has mean absolute error 0.14, about 0.07 in bulk layers, and the committed open or closed verdict holds on eleven against a ten of fifteen majority baseline. Closed cases expose three failure modes rather than violations: collapse before trigger, too little depth to propagate, or a normalization that caps how far one neuron can push. The law explains why local gradient attribution anti predicts control: true controllers write off the readout axis and carry a near zero first order gradient. A forward only contrastive screen made precise by the window recovers controllers that attribution misses. On refusal, the hardest case, intervention success is typed, not scalar: coherent bypass and strict actionable reach separate, so a neuron can flip refusal in fluent, on task text with no actionable content, and genuine actionable reach appears only for three of six audited Llama pivots and only at later rollout horizons. Single neuron steering is therefore a budgeted, typed audit of controllability rather than a fixed dose anecdote.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit a well-documented gap between latent capability and consistent activation: the router hypothesis posits that models possess the knowledge to solve a task but lack reliable internal routing to activate it. Prior work in formal mathematical reasoning (SAIR, Cázares 2026) reports that structural priors (cheatsheets) raise in-distribution performance dramatically, yet collapse below the zero-shot baseline out-of-distribution (OOD) -- and that iterative recalibration amplifies rather than corrects the collapse. We test whether this phenomenon is cross-domain by reproducing the SAIR design in source-code security vulnerability detection, evaluating three LLMs (GPT-OSS-120B, Llama-3.3-70B, Gemma-4-31B) across three vulnerability categories (CWE-798, CWE-284, and the non-CWE N+1 anti-pattern) spanning syntactic, contextual, and semantic complexity, then transferring cheatsheet-augmented prompts to real-world CVE data from VUDENC (CWE-89, CWE-22). Our findings replicate and extend SAIR: (F1) structural priors lift semantic-vulnerability recall from 20.0% to 100.0% across all models; (F2) zero-shot performance degrades along a semantic complexity gradient; (F3) the same cheatsheets that saturate synthetic performance amplify distribution-shift collapse on real CVE data (CWE-89: 100% synthetic F1 to 48.9% on VUDENC, -51.1pp); (F5) iterative recalibration produces a v2 cheatsheet that performs worse than v1 on real data, mirroring SAIR's AN45c-vs-AN38 finding. These results provide evidence that the cross-distribution trade-off surface documented in SAIR generalises to code security, and that the router hypothesis is cross-domain. We argue the structural nature of the collapse motivates distribution-aware training over prompt calibration. Code and evaluation scripts: https://github.com/bytepro-ai/bitcoder-v2-research

We document empirical capability ceilings in decoder-only autoregressive language models across knowledge-intensive tasks. Systematic evaluation of OPT and Pythia model families (70M-30B parameters, spanning 240 times scaling) reveals that knowledge retrieval tasks show negligible accuracy improvement despite smooth loss reduction. On MMLU mathematics benchmarks, accuracy remains flat at 19-20% (below 25% random chance) across all scales while cross-entropy loss decreases by 31%. In contrast, procedural tasks like arithmetic show conventional scaling where both metrics improve together. Attention intervention experiments reveal high sensitivity to perturbation: swapping attention patterns between models causes catastrophic performance collapse (complete accuracy loss) rather than graceful degradation. These measurements have immediate engineering implications: for knowledge-intensive applications using OPT and Pythia architectures, parameter scaling beyond 1-2B offers minimal accuracy gains despite continued loss improvement. Our findings quantify capability-specific scaling failures in these model families to inform resource allocation decisions. Whether these patterns reflect fundamental constraints of decoder-only architectures or implementation-specific limitations remains an open question requiring investigation across diverse architectural approaches.

This paper exposes the ergodic ceiling and thermodynamic inefficiency of current deep learning, which converges to a statistical average of historic human knowledge. True semantic novelty requires a path-dependent, spatiotemporally bounded observer (a Data LifeCone) to inject non-ergodic insight, achieving KL divergence and avoiding manifold lock-in. AI Safety must recognise that a mature Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) would regard human-AI symbiosis as a thermodynamic necessity to avoid model collapse. We therefore propose hard physical containment via a digital physics sandbox powered by a Holographic E8 Projection Engine to verify models against real-world constraints. Spacetime is modeled as an information substrate of nested face-centered cubic (FCC) lattices of oscillating Planck-scale spheres maximizing local information and entropy density. Cut-and-project methods from the E8 root lattice produce a quasi-crystalline geometry where tetrahedral voids support SU chiral structure and elastic-shear eigenvalues generate candidate mass spectra. Rest mass is treated as discrete, integer microstate counts on local holographic boundaries (Bekenstein bound), replacing floating-point approximations with strict integer arithmetic to provide an information-theoretic definition of matter. Stable particles emerge as recurring lattice dislocations, and continuum recovery proceeds via variational renormalisation-group flows and Fourier Neural Operators that learn continuous spectral operators to recover the Schrödinger equation as an emergent statistical description. Crucially, these top-down topological constraints offer a mechanism for "NP-to-P" complexity collapse: by restricting an algorithm's proposal space to physically conserved causal trajectories, the sandbox prunes the combinatorial tree to deterministic, polynomial-time paths.

As Large Language Models shift the programming toward human-guided ''vibe coding'', agentic coding tools increasingly rely on models to self-diagnose and repair their own subtle faults -- a capability central to autonomous software engineering yet never systematically evaluated. We present , the first empirical decomposition that jointly evaluates two coupled tasks: Fault-Triggering Test Generation (FT-Test) constructing a discriminative witness that exposes a latent bug, and Fault-targeted Program Repair (FPR), repairing it under varying diagnostic conditions. pairs competitive programming problems with LLM-generated solutions that pass partial test suites but fail on semantic edge cases, enabling controlled identification of where the diagnostic chain breaks down. Evaluating 12 frontier LLMs, we find that fault-targeted reasoning does not scale with general coding ability. Models produce syntactically valid test inputs at near-ceiling rates yet collapse on discriminative generation, with fault hypothesis generation -- not output validation -- as the dominant bottleneck. Test-guided repair reveals a complementary insight: when self-generated tests successfully witness a fault, the resulting repair matches or outperforms repair guided by externally provided tests, but tests that fail to witness the fault actively degrade repair below unguided baselines. Together, these results reframe the challenge of autonomous debugging: the binding bottleneck is not code synthesis or test validity but fault-target reasoning, a capability that remains deficient across all frontier models. As Large Language Models shift the programming toward human-guided ''vibe coding'', agentic coding tools increasingly rely on models to self-diagnose and repair their own subtle faults -- a capability central to autonomous software engineering yet never systematically evaluated.

Identifying which speaker a listener is attending to in a noisy room -- the cocktail-party problem -- is the missing ingredient for next-generation hearing aids and brain-computer interfaces: it tells the device whose voice to amplify. Auditory attention decoding (AAD) reads this answer from EEG, but the literature splits into disconnected pieces: directional-AAD classifies side but does not map side to stream; regression-based source-AAD ranks candidate streams by a single Pearson correlation that is intrinsically noisy at the 1-5 s windows real devices need; and envelope reconstruction has no native AAD rule. We argue the right object is not any single statistic but the conditional likelihood of the attended envelope given EEG, and we make this practical with NEUROTOKEN: a single network whose three heads share one EEG front-end, with a conditional flow-matching head (ATTUNEFLOW) that scores candidates by an integrated velocity-residual likelihood ratio. Two inference-time ensembles -- QUADTRACK (four complementary statistics) and ENV-FLOW (z-normalised QUADTRACK+ATTUNEFLOW) -- absorb per-statistic failure modes for free. On KU Leuven, DTU, and NJU at 5 s, ATTUNEFLOW lifts per-segment source-AAD by 9%-16% over the strongest non-generative baseline and shrinks across-subject variance by ~3x; trial-level fusion exceeds 93% on two of three datasets. In parallel reproductions we show that canonical 95-97% direction-AAD numbers collapse by 17%-45% under a strict trial-disjoint protocol, clarifying both the true ceiling and why a likelihood-based formulation is needed.

Reinforcement learning is a natural way to post-train LLM agents for long-horizon interactive tasks judged only by end-of-task verification, yet a shared belief holds that outcome-only RL soon hits a ceiling on small open models. Recent work therefore compensates around the training with denser rewards, SFT priors, skill libraries, curated memory, or multi-agent orchestration. We argue the ceiling is an artifact of two failures of common practice. Signal starvation: group-relative RL with sparse outcome-only rewards yields a gradient only when a task's rollout group mixes successes and failures, so under-scaled exploration silences exactly the hardest, most instructive tasks. Policy drift: squeezing many updates out of a small task pool degrades the policy itself, as an unanchored objective lets the sampling distribution collapse exactly when saturation has already made informative groups rare. We present CANOPY (Coverage-ANchored On-PolicY RL), a minimalist protocol attacking both directly: scale same-task exploration until the natural signal reappears, keep every update on-policy, KL-anchored, and confined to the agent's own action tokens, then cash in an enlarged interaction budget at test time. On AppWorld, a long-horizon interactive coding benchmark, a Qwen3-14B policy trained with CANOPY through environment interaction alone--without task-specific supervision, auxiliary credit signals, or elaborate agent scaffolding--topped the public leaderboard (Feb. 2026; Test-Normal TGC 86.9, Test-Challenge 67.6), and the same design principles lift Qwen3.5-9B on SWE-bench Verified by 16.6 points. Agentic RL alone thus internalizes long-horizon capability directly into a small open model; we plan to release the complete training stack at https://github.com/AlibabaResearch/SignalCoverageRL.

There is a recently discovered and intriguing phenomenon called Neural Collapse: at the terminal phase of training a deep neural network for classification, the within-class penultimate feature means and the associated classifier vectors of all flat classes collapse to the vertices of a simplex Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF). Recent work has tried to exploit this phenomenon by fixing the related classifier weights to a pre-computed ETF to induce neural collapse and maximize the separation of the learned features when training with imbalanced data. In this work, we propose to fix the linear classifier of a deep neural network to a Hierarchy-Aware Frame (HAFrame), instead of an ETF, and use a cosine similarity-based auxiliary loss to learn hierarchy-aware penultimate features that collapse to the HAFrame. We demonstrate that our approach reduces the mistake severity of the model's predictions while maintaining its top-1 accuracy on several datasets of varying scales with hierarchies of heights ranging from 3 to 12. Code: https://github.com/ltong1130ztr/HAFrame

When forecasting hourly returns for 1,000 US equities, we observe an unexpected phenomenon: predictions become nearly flat and show poor stock ranking, as measured by cross-sectional correlation. We call this forecast collapse. Surprisingly, the phenomenon largely disappears when forecasting trading volume under the same setting. We investigate forecast collapse across time-series foundation models (TSFMs), twelve deep-learning forecasting models, and 97 public benchmark configurations, and find that it is closely tied to target predictability. We identify two distinct reasons behind it: low predictability limits the amplitude of calibrated point forecasts, while per-series objectives leave cross-series structure unidentified. These findings reveal a calibration-ranking tradeoff: optimizing squared error leads to flat predictions, whereas directly optimizing cross-sectional correlation improves ranking but can inflate forecast amplitude by more than an order of magnitude. To address this tradeoff, we introduce CalibRank, a simple objective that balances calibration and ranking. On Finance1K, CalibRank nearly triples cross-sectional correlation while keeping amplitude close to the target, and improves correlation on all tested models. Our results reveal a blind spot in conventional time-series evaluation: per-series metrics can hide failures in cross-series structure needed by downstream decisions.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.