Daily Papers

The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) has expanded their capabilities from basic dialogue to advanced scientific reasoning. However, existing benchmarks in biology often fail to assess a critical skill required of researchers: the ability to integrate experimental results with contextual knowledge to derive meaningful conclusions. To address this gap, we introduce BABE(Biology Arena BEnchmark), a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate the experimental reasoning capabilities of biological AI systems. BABE is uniquely constructed from peer-reviewed research papers and real-world biological studies, ensuring that tasks reflect the complexity and interdisciplinary nature of actual scientific inquiry. BABE challenges models to perform causal reasoning and cross-scale inference. Our benchmark provides a robust framework for assessing how well AI systems can reason like practicing scientists, offering a more authentic measure of their potential to contribute to biological research.

Diffusion models deliver high-fidelity synthesis but remain slow due to iterative sampling. We empirically observe there exists feature invariance in deterministic sampling, and present InvarDiff, a training-free acceleration method that exploits the relative temporal invariance across timestep-scale and layer-scale. From a few deterministic runs, we compute a per-timestep, per-layer, per-module binary cache plan matrix and use a re-sampling correction to avoid drift when consecutive caches occur. Using quantile-based change metrics, this matrix specifies which module at which step is reused rather than recomputed. The same invariance criterion is applied at the step scale to enable cross-timestep caching, deciding whether an entire step can reuse cached results. During inference, InvarDiff performs step-first and layer-wise caching guided by this matrix. When applied to DiT and FLUX, our approach reduces redundant compute while preserving fidelity. Experiments show that InvarDiff achieves 2-3times end-to-end speed-ups with minimal impact on standard quality metrics. Qualitatively, we observe almost no degradation in visual quality compared with full computations.

Infrared small target detection (IRSTD) is important for low-altitude perception, unmanned-system warning, and security monitoring. However, weak targets in infrared imagery usually occupy only a few pixels and are easily submerged by cloud clutter, ground edges, and bright noise, making it difficult for lightweight segmentation-based methods to preserve local target structures while suppressing background interference. To address these challenges, we propose LCMamNet, a lightweight cross-scale Mamba network that progressively enhances local target structures, interacts cross-scale context in a latent space, and restores spatial details with background suppression. Specifically, a compact hierarchical encoder with cross-shaped directional bottleneck residual (CDBR) blocks strengthens direction-sensitive target structures under a small computation budget. A latent dense cross-scale fusion (LDCF) module then performs dense all-level interaction through bidirectional Mamba modeling and reorganizes the interacted features into stable hierarchical semantics. Finally, a progressive decoder selectively recovers shallow spatial details while suppressing irrelevant background textures. Extensive experiments on IRSTD-1k, NUAA-SIRST, and NUDT-SIRST show that the proposed network achieves mIoU scores of 71.25\%, 79.60\%, and 95.58\%, respectively, with only 1.175M parameters and 6.91 GFLOPs. It also runs with a mean inference latency of 6.62 ms, and deployment results on an NVIDIA Jetson Orin NX 16G SUPER further demonstrate its practical potential for real-time edge inference. The code and checkpoints are publicly available at https://github.com/Haoyu096/LCMamNet.

Modern GANs often introduce adversarial supervision on intermediate generator outputs and interpret the resulting multi-stage synthesis as coarse-to-fine hierarchical generation. In this work, we challenge this interpretation. We argue that standard scale-wise adversarial supervision does not construct a proper coarse-to-fine hierarchy: each intermediate image is independently pushed toward the real distribution at its own resolution, but this scale-wise realism does not ensure that outputs across stages represent the identical generated sample. Moreover, the scale-specific image produced at each stage is not used as an explicit refinement target for the subsequent stage. Therefore, its adversarial loss can improve a scale-specific output without constraining later stages to preserve the same sample trajectory, allowing them to move toward a different sample rather than refine the previous output. We refer to this problem as a cross-scale trajectory misalignment problem. To resolve it, we propose CAT, a Cross-scale Aligned Transformer for multi-scale adversarial generation. CAT keeps the discriminator scale-wise, so each intermediate output is evaluated at its own resolution, while adding a simple generator-side consistency regularization that aligns intermediate outputs with the final output. On class-conditional ImageNet-256, CAT-H/2 achieves an FID-50K of 1.56 with one-step inference after only 60 training epochs, outperforming strong one-step GAN and diffusion/flow baselines.

Small object detection in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery is challenging, mainly due to scale variation, structural detail degradation, and limited computational resources. In high-altitude scenarios, fine-grained features are further weakened during hierarchical downsampling and cross-scale fusion, resulting in unstable localization and reduced robustness. To address this issue, we propose CollabOD, a lightweight collaborative detection framework that explicitly preserves structural details and aligns heterogeneous feature streams before multi-scale fusion. The framework integrates Structural Detail Preservation, Cross-Path Feature Alignment, and Localization-Aware Lightweight Design strategies. From the perspectives of image processing, channel structure, and lightweight design, it optimizes the architecture of conventional UAV perception models. The proposed design enhances representation stability while maintaining efficient inference. A unified detail-aware detection head further improves regression robustness without introducing additional deployment overhead. The code is available at: https://github.com/Bai-Xuecheng/CollabOD.

Feature pyramid networks (FPN) are widely exploited for multi-scale feature fusion in existing advanced object detection frameworks. Numerous previous works have developed various structures for bidirectional feature fusion, all of which are shown to improve the detection performance effectively. We observe that these complicated network structures require feature pyramids to be stacked in a fixed order, which introduces longer pipelines and reduces the inference speed. Moreover, semantics from non-adjacent levels are diluted in the feature pyramid since only features at adjacent pyramid levels are merged by the local fusion operation in a sequence manner. To address these issues, we propose a novel architecture named RCNet, which consists of Reverse Feature Pyramid (RevFP) and Cross-scale Shift Network (CSN). RevFP utilizes local bidirectional feature fusion to simplify the bidirectional pyramid inference pipeline. CSN directly propagates representations to both adjacent and non-adjacent levels to enable multi-scale features more correlative. Extensive experiments on the MS COCO dataset demonstrate RCNet can consistently bring significant improvements over both one-stage and two-stage detectors with subtle extra computational overhead. In particular, RetinaNet is boosted to 40.2 AP, which is 3.7 points higher than baseline, by replacing FPN with our proposed model. On COCO test-dev, RCNet can achieve very competitive performance with a single-model single-scale 50.5 AP. Codes will be made available.

Emergency of DeepSeek R1 and QwQ 32B have broken through performance barriers for running frontier large language models (LLMs) on home devices. While consumer hardware is getting stronger and model quantization is improving, existing end-side solutions still demand GPU clusters, large RAM/VRAM, and high bandwidth, far beyond what a common home cluster can handle. This paper introduces prima.cpp, a distributed inference system that runs 70B-scale models on everyday home devices using a mix of CPU/GPU, low RAM/VRAM, Wi-Fi, and cross-platform support. It uses mmap to manage model weights and introduces piped-ring parallelism with prefetching to hide disk loading. By modeling heterogeneity in computation, communication, disk, memory (and its management behavior), and OS, it optimally assigns model layers to each device's CPU and GPU, further reducing token latency. An elegant algorithm named Halda is proposed to solve this NP-hard assignment problem. We evaluate prima.cpp on a common four-node home cluster. It outperforms llama.cpp, exo, and dllama on 30B+ models while keeping memory pressure below 6%. This brings frontier 30B-70B models, such as Llama 3, DeepSeek R1, Qwen 2.5, and QwQ to home assistants, making advanced AI truly accessible to individuals. The code is open source and available at https://github.com/Lizonghang/prima.cpp.

KV cache has traditionally been stored in GPU memory to accelerate the decoding phase of large language model (LLM) inference. However, it is increasingly necessary to move KV caches outside GPU devices, to enable cache reuse across different queries and inference engines. Our real-world usage statistics confirm this trend: over time, the total KV cache stored by users has grown rapidly, far exceeding the capacity of GPU memory. Despite this need, there lacks an efficient solution for offloading and transferring KV caches. We present LMCACHE, the first and so far the most efficient open-source KV caching solution, which extracts and stores KV caches generated by modern LLM engines (vLLM and SGLang) out of the GPU memory and shares them across engines and queries. LMCACHE supports both cache offloading (prefix reuse across queries) and prefill-decode (PD) disaggregation (cross-engine/GPU cache transfer). LMCACHE's high performance and wide adoption stem from the following contributions: (1) highly optimized KV cache data movement powered by batched data movement operations, compute and I/O pipelining; (2) a modular KV cache connector component, decoupling LMCACHE from the rapid evolution of inference engines; (3) a first-class control API for flexible cache orchestration across GPU, CPU, storage, and network layers. Our evaluation shows that combining LMCACHE with vLLM achieves up to 15x improvement in throughput across workloads such as multi-round question answering and document analysis. Large-scale adoption of LMCACHE in enterprise settings provides us valuable insights, for example, fetching KV cache from remote storage has unsurprisingly benefits to prefill delay, and that context truncation, which is a widely applied technique in industry, can greatly reduce prefix cache hit ratio by half. The source code of LMCACHE is at: https://github.com/LMCache/LMCache.

Hallucinations hinder reliable question answering, especially in resource-constrained deployments where frontier-scale models or retrieval pipelines may be impractical. We present EdgeJury, a lightweight ensemble framework that improves truthfulness and robustness using only small instruction-tuned language models (3B-8B) suitable for serverless edge inference. EdgeJury orchestrates four stages: (1) parallel role-specialized generation, (2) anonymized cross-review with structured critiques and rankings, (3) chairman synthesis that integrates the strongest content while addressing flagged issues, and (4) claim-level consistency labeling based on inter-model agreement. On TruthfulQA (MC1), EdgeJury achieves 76.2% accuracy (95% CI: 72.8-79.6%), a +21.4% relative improvement over a single 8B baseline (62.8%), and outperforms standard baselines including self-consistency and majority voting under transparent compute accounting (total tokens and platform cost reported). On a 200-question adversarial EdgeCases set, EdgeJury yields +48.2% relative gains (95% CI: 44.0-52.4%). Manual analysis on 100 incorrect answers shows an approximately 55% reduction in factual hallucination errors versus the single-model baseline. Deployed on Cloudflare Workers AI, EdgeJury achieves 8.4 s median end-to-end latency, demonstrating that coordinated small-model ensembles can improve truthfulness on misconception-heavy QA benchmarks without external retrieval or proprietary large-model APIs.

The rapid expansion of distributed Artificial Intelligence (AI) workloads beyond centralized data centers creates a demand for new communication substrates. These substrates must operate reliably in heterogeneous and permissionless environments, where Network Address Translators (NATs) and firewalls impose significant constraints. Existing solutions, however, are either designed for controlled data center deployments or implemented as monolithic systems that tightly couple machine learning logic with networking code. To address these limitations, we present Lattica, a decentralized cross-NAT communication framework designed to support distributed AI systems. Lattica integrates three core components. First, it employs a robust suite of NAT traversal mechanisms to establish a globally addressable peer-to-peer mesh. Second, it provides a decentralized data store based on Conflict-free Replicated Data Types (CRDTs), ensuring verifiable and eventually consistent state replication. Third, it incorporates a content discovery layer that leverages distributed hash tables (DHTs) together with an optimized RPC protocol for efficient model synchronization. By integrating these components, Lattica delivers a complete protocol stack for sovereign, resilient, and scalable AI systems that operate independently of centralized intermediaries. It is directly applicable to edge intelligence, collaborative reinforcement learning, and other large-scale distributed machine learning scenarios.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have rapidly advanced across various domains, yet they still lag behind strong text-only large language models (LLMs) on tasks that require multi-step inference and compositional decision-making. Motivated by their shared transformer architectures, we investigate whether the two model families rely on common internal computation for such inference. At the neuron level, we uncover a surprisingly large overlap: more than half of the top-activated units during multi-step inference are shared between representative LLMs and LVLMs, revealing a modality-invariant inference subspace. Through causal probing via activation amplification, we further show that these shared neurons encode consistent and interpretable concept-level effects, demonstrating their functional contribution to inference. Building on this insight, we propose Shared Neuron Low-Rank Fusion (SNRF), a parameter-efficient framework that transfers mature inference circuitry from LLMs to LVLMs. SNRF profiles cross-model activations to identify shared neurons, computes a low-rank approximation of inter-model weight differences, and injects these updates selectively within the shared-neuron subspace. This mechanism strengthens multimodal inference performance with minimal parameter changes and requires no large-scale multimodal fine-tuning. Across diverse mathematics and perception benchmarks, SNRF consistently enhances LVLM inference performance while preserving perceptual capabilities. Our results demonstrate that shared neurons form an interpretable bridge between LLMs and LVLMs, enabling low-cost transfer of inference ability into multimodal models. Our code is available at [https://github.com/chenhangcuisg-code/Do-LLMs-VLMs-Share-Neurons](https://github.com/chenhangcuisg-code/Do-LLMs-VLMs-Share-Neurons).

Profiting from large-scale training datasets, advances in neural architecture design and efficient inference, joint embeddings have become the dominant approach for tackling cross-modal retrieval. In this work we first show that, despite their effectiveness, state-of-the-art joint embeddings suffer significantly from the longstanding "hubness problem" in which a small number of gallery embeddings form the nearest neighbours of many queries. Drawing inspiration from the NLP literature, we formulate a simple but effective framework called Querybank Normalisation (QB-Norm) that re-normalises query similarities to account for hubs in the embedding space. QB-Norm improves retrieval performance without requiring retraining. Differently from prior work, we show that QB-Norm works effectively without concurrent access to any test set queries. Within the QB-Norm framework, we also propose a novel similarity normalisation method, the Dynamic Inverted Softmax, that is significantly more robust than existing approaches. We showcase QB-Norm across a range of cross modal retrieval models and benchmarks where it consistently enhances strong baselines beyond the state of the art. Code is available at https://vladbogo.github.io/QB-Norm/.

Although membership inference attacks (MIAs) and machine-generated text detection target different goals, identifying training samples and synthetic texts, their methods often exploit similar signals based on a language model's probability distribution. Despite this shared methodological foundation, the two tasks have been independently studied, which may lead to conclusions that overlook stronger methods and valuable insights developed in the other task. In this work, we theoretically and empirically investigate the transferability, i.e., how well a method originally developed for one task performs on the other, between MIAs and machine text detection. For our theoretical contribution, we prove that the metric that achieves the asymptotically highest performance on both tasks is the same. We unify a large proportion of the existing literature in the context of this optimal metric and hypothesize that the accuracy with which a given method approximates this metric is directly correlated with its transferability. Our large-scale empirical experiments, including 7 state-of-the-art MIA methods and 5 state-of-the-art machine text detectors across 13 domains and 10 generators, demonstrate very strong rank correlation (rho > 0.6) in cross-task performance. We notably find that Binoculars, originally designed for machine text detection, achieves state-of-the-art performance on MIA benchmarks as well, demonstrating the practical impact of the transferability. Our findings highlight the need for greater cross-task awareness and collaboration between the two research communities. To facilitate cross-task developments and fair evaluations, we introduce MINT, a unified evaluation suite for MIAs and machine-generated text detection, with implementation of 15 recent methods from both tasks.

With the growing requirement for natural human-computer interaction, speech-based systems receive increasing attention as speech is one of the most common forms of daily communication. However, the existing speech models still experience high latency when generating the first audio token during streaming, which poses a significant bottleneck for deployment. To address this issue, we propose VITA-Audio, an end-to-end large speech model with fast audio-text token generation. Specifically, we introduce a lightweight Multiple Cross-modal Token Prediction (MCTP) module that efficiently generates multiple audio tokens within a single model forward pass, which not only accelerates the inference but also significantly reduces the latency for generating the first audio in streaming scenarios. In addition, a four-stage progressive training strategy is explored to achieve model acceleration with minimal loss of speech quality. To our knowledge, VITA-Audio is the first multi-modal large language model capable of generating audio output during the first forward pass, enabling real-time conversational capabilities with minimal latency. VITA-Audio is fully reproducible and is trained on open-source data only. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves an inference speedup of 3~5x at the 7B parameter scale, but also significantly outperforms open-source models of similar model size on multiple benchmarks for automatic speech recognition (ASR), text-to-speech (TTS), and spoken question answering (SQA) tasks.

While scaling laws have transformed natural language processing and computer vision, 3D point cloud understanding has yet to reach that stage. This can be attributed to both the comparatively smaller scale of 3D datasets, as well as the disparate sources of the data itself. Point clouds are captured by diverse sensors (e.g., depth cameras, LiDAR) across varied domains (e.g., indoor, outdoor), each introducing unique scanning patterns, sampling densities, and semantic biases. Such domain heterogeneity poses a major barrier towards training unified models at scale, especially under the realistic constraint that domain labels are typically inaccessible at inference time. In this work, we propose Point-MoE, a Mixture-of-Experts architecture designed to enable large-scale, cross-domain generalization in 3D perception. We show that standard point cloud backbones degrade significantly in performance when trained on mixed-domain data, whereas Point-MoE with a simple top-k routing strategy can automatically specialize experts, even without access to domain labels. Our experiments demonstrate that Point-MoE not only outperforms strong multi-domain baselines but also generalizes better to unseen domains. This work highlights a scalable path forward for 3D understanding: letting the model discover structure in diverse 3D data, rather than imposing it via manual curation or domain supervision.

Multilingual transformers (XLM, mT5) have been shown to have remarkable transfer skills in zero-shot settings. Most transfer studies, however, rely on automatically translated resources (XNLI, XQuAD), making it hard to discern the particular linguistic knowledge that is being transferred, and the role of expert annotated monolingual datasets when developing task-specific models. We investigate the cross-lingual transfer abilities of XLM-R for Chinese and English natural language inference (NLI), with a focus on the recent large-scale Chinese dataset OCNLI. To better understand linguistic transfer, we created 4 categories of challenge and adversarial tasks (totaling 17 new datasets) for Chinese that build on several well-known resources for English (e.g., HANS, NLI stress-tests). We find that cross-lingual models trained on English NLI do transfer well across our Chinese tasks (e.g., in 3/4 of our challenge categories, they perform as well/better than the best monolingual models, even on 3/5 uniquely Chinese linguistic phenomena such as idioms, pro drop). These results, however, come with important caveats: cross-lingual models often perform best when trained on a mixture of English and high-quality monolingual NLI data (OCNLI), and are often hindered by automatically translated resources (XNLI-zh). For many phenomena, all models continue to struggle, highlighting the need for our new diagnostics to help benchmark Chinese and cross-lingual models. All new datasets/code are released at https://github.com/huhailinguist/ChineseNLIProbing.

We present Open-TQ-Metal, the first implementation of fused compressed-domain attention on Apple Silicon, enabling 128K-context inference for Llama 3.1 70B on a single 64GB consumer Mac -- a configuration impossible with all existing inference frameworks. Open-TQ-Metal quantizes the KV cache to int4 on the fly and computes attention directly on the compressed representation via custom Metal compute shaders, eliminating all intermediate dequantization matrices. Across 330 experiments spanning two model families (Gemma 4 31B and Llama 3.1 70B), the fused sdpa_int4 kernel achieves 48x attention speedup at 128K context over the dequantize-then-attend baseline, reduces KV cache memory from 40 GB to 12.5 GB (3.2x compression), and maintains identical top-1 token predictions to FP16 inference. We further provide the first cross-architecture analysis of KV cache quantization methods, revealing that the attention scale factor -- not model size -- determines whether angular quantization schemes like PolarQuant succeed or fail, with Gemma 4's attn_scale=1.0 amplifying directional error 25-100x more than Llama's standard 1/sqrt(d) scaling.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have benefited enormously from scaling, yet these gains are bounded by five fundamental limitations: (1) hallucination, (2) context compression, (3) reasoning degradation, (4) retrieval fragility, and (5) multimodal misalignment. While existing surveys describe these phenomena empirically, they lack a rigorous theoretical synthesis connecting them to the foundational limits of computation, information, and learning. This work closes that gap by presenting a unified, proof-informed framework that formalizes the innate theoretical ceilings of LLM scaling. First, computability and uncomputability imply an irreducible residue of error: for any computably enumerable model family, diagonalization guarantees inputs on which some model must fail, and undecidable queries (e.g., halting-style tasks) induce infinite failure sets for all computable predictors. Second, information-theoretic and statistical constraints bound attainable accuracy even on decidable tasks, finite description length enforces compression error, and long-tail factual knowledge requires prohibitive sample complexity. Third, geometric and computational effects compress long contexts far below their nominal size due to positional under-training, encoding attenuation, and softmax crowding. We further show how likelihood-based training favors pattern completion over inference, how retrieval under token limits suffers from semantic drift and coupling noise, and how multimodal scaling inherits shallow cross-modal alignment. Across sections, we pair theorems and empirical evidence to outline where scaling helps, where it saturates, and where it cannot progress, providing both theoretical foundations and practical mitigation paths like bounded-oracle retrieval, positional curricula, and sparse or hierarchical attention.

Pathological images are inherently multi-scale, requiring pathologists to integrate evidence from global tissue architecture at low magnification to cellular morphology at higher magnification for accurate diagnosis. While existing pathological datasets for vision-language models (VLMs) include various scales, they often lack explicit cross-scale reasoning objectives. This limitation prevents VLMs from capturing essential cross-scale representations and learning evidence-based reasoning. To bridge this gap, we introduce the first cross-scale training and evaluation paradigm that formulates pathology interpretation as multi-magnification reasoning. However, creating such a task reveals a critical challenge: multi-image visual question answering (VQA) is prone to text-only shortcuts, which allow models to guess answers using magnification-dependent artifacts rather than visual evidence. To address this, we propose a leakage-aware curation pipeline that combines adversarial text-only screening with constraint-guided question design. Using this pipeline, we construct Scale-VQA, a high-quality benchmark with 4,685 multiple-choice questions grounded in 2,537 pathology images across multiple magnification levels. Finally, we present ScaleReasoner-R1, a model trained via reinforcement learning to optimize performance on cross-scale VQA tasks. ScaleReasoner-R1 achieves state-of-the-art performance on our cross-scale reasoning benchmark and generalizes to SOTA performance on established single-scale benchmarks. Findings suggest that even the limited cross-scale supervision can significantly improve pathological understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/iMVR-PL/ScaleReasoner-R1.

Autoregressive image generators are commonly pretrained with token-level cross-entropy under teacher forcing, yet evaluated by the distributional quality of decoded images. This creates an objective mismatch, because categorical errors have unequal image-level consequences, and a context mismatch, because inference conditions on model-generated histories. We introduce FD-loss post-training, which adapts a pretrained discrete generator using representation-space Fréchet distance as the sole objective. A dual-pass scheme first constructs detached rollout contexts through gradient-free generation under the model's native inference configuration, then performs differentiable replay with a probability-level straight-through estimator (STE) that preserves hard argmax decoding in the forward pass while propagating image-level gradients through temperature-scaled probabilities. Only the generator is updated, while the tokenizer and feature extractors remain frozen. Across eight completed configurations from four generator families on class-conditional ImageNet at 256times256, FD-loss post-training reduces FID and FD_{r6} by 41.4% and 52.0% on average. The strongest FID result improves from 2.42 to 1.43 without adding parameters or inference steps.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Earth Observation (EO) data are increasingly used in policy analysis by enabling granular estimation of treatment effects. However, a challenge in EO-based causal inference lies in balancing the trade-off between capturing fine-grained individual heterogeneity and broader contextual information. This paper introduces Multi-scale Concatenation, a family of composable procedures that transform arbitrary single-scale CATE estimation algorithms into multi-scale algorithms. We benchmark the performance of Multi-scale Concatenation on a CATE estimation pipeline combining Vision Transformer (ViT) models fine-tuned on satellite images to encode images of different scales with Causal Forests to obtain the final CATE estimate. We first perform simulation studies, showing how a multi-scale approach captures multi-level dynamics that single-scale ViT models fail to capture. We then apply the multi-scale method to two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in Peru and Uganda using Landsat satellite imagery. In the RCT analysis, the Rank Average Treatment Effect Ratio (RATE Ratio) measure is employed to assess performance without ground truth individual treatment effects. Results indicate that Multi-scale Concatenation improves the performance of deep learning models in EO-based CATE estimation without the complexity of designing new multi-scale architectures for a specific use case.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Given the variety of the visual world there is not one true scale for recognition: objects may appear at drastically different sizes across the visual field. Rather than enumerate variations across filter channels or pyramid levels, dynamic models locally predict scale and adapt receptive fields accordingly. The degree of variation and diversity of inputs makes this a difficult task. Existing methods either learn a feedforward predictor, which is not itself totally immune to the scale variation it is meant to counter, or select scales by a fixed algorithm, which cannot learn from the given task and data. We extend dynamic scale inference from feedforward prediction to iterative optimization for further adaptivity. We propose a novel entropy minimization objective for inference and optimize over task and structure parameters to tune the model to each input. Optimization during inference improves semantic segmentation accuracy and generalizes better to extreme scale variations that cause feedforward dynamic inference to falter.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing approaches often rely on heuristic strategies for parallel sampling, lacking a principled foundation. To address this gap, we propose a probabilistic framework that formalizes the optimality of inference-time scaling under the assumption that parallel samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.), and where the Best-of-N selection strategy follows a probability distribution that can be estimated. Within this framework, we derive a theoretical lower bound on the required number of samples to achieve a target performance level, providing the first principled guidance for compute-efficient scaling. Leveraging this insight, we develop OptScale, a practical algorithm that dynamically determines the optimal number of sampled responses. OptScale employs a language model-based predictor to estimate probabilistic prior parameters, enabling the decision of the minimal number of samples needed that satisfy predefined performance thresholds and confidence levels. Extensive experiments on representative reasoning benchmarks (including MATH-500, GSM8K, AIME, and AMC) demonstrate that OptScale significantly reduces sampling overhead while remaining better or on par with state-of-the-art reasoning performance. Our work offers both a theoretical foundation and a practical solution for principled inference-time scaling, addressing a critical gap in the efficient deployment of LLMs for complex reasoning.

Pansharpening aims to generate high-resolution multi-spectral images by fusing the spatial detail of panchromatic images with the spectral richness of low-resolution MS data. However, most existing methods are evaluated under limited, low-resolution settings, limiting their generalization to real-world, high-resolution scenarios. To bridge this gap, we systematically investigate the data, algorithmic, and computational challenges of cross-scale pansharpening. We first introduce PanScale, the first large-scale, cross-scale pansharpening dataset, accompanied by PanScale-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating generalization across varying resolutions and scales. To realize scale generalization, we propose ScaleFormer, a novel architecture designed for multi-scale pansharpening. ScaleFormer reframes generalization across image resolutions as generalization across sequence lengths: it tokenizes images into patch sequences of the same resolution but variable length proportional to image scale. A Scale-Aware Patchify module enables training for such variations from fixed-size crops. ScaleFormer then decouples intra-patch spatial feature learning from inter-patch sequential dependency modeling, incorporating Rotary Positional Encoding to enhance extrapolation to unseen scales. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms SOTA methods in fusion quality and cross-scale generalization. The datasets and source code are available upon acceptance.

Deep learning has recently revealed the existence of scaling laws, demonstrating that model performance follows predictable trends based on dataset and model sizes. Inspired by these findings and fascinating phenomena emerging in the over-parameterized regime, we examine a parallel direction: do similar scaling laws govern predictive uncertainties in deep learning? In identifiable parametric models, such scaling laws can be derived in a straightforward manner by treating model parameters in a Bayesian way. In this case, for example, we obtain O(1/N) contraction rates for epistemic uncertainty with respect to the number of data N. However, in over-parameterized models, these guarantees do not hold, leading to largely unexplored behaviors. In this work, we empirically show the existence of scaling laws associated with various measures of predictive uncertainty with respect to dataset and model sizes. Through experiments on vision and language tasks, we observe such scaling laws for in- and out-of-distribution predictive uncertainty estimated through popular approximate Bayesian inference and ensemble methods. Besides the elegance of scaling laws and the practical utility of extrapolating uncertainties to larger data or models, this work provides strong evidence to dispel recurring skepticism against Bayesian approaches: "In many applications of deep learning we have so much data available: what do we need Bayes for?". Our findings show that "so much data" is typically not enough to make epistemic uncertainty negligible.

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present Train-to-Test (T^2) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and number of inference samples under fixed end-to-end budgets. T^2 modernizes pretraining scaling laws with pass@k modeling used for test-time scaling, then jointly optimizes pretraining and test-time decisions. Forecasts from T^2 are robust over distinct modeling approaches: measuring joint scaling effect on the task loss and modeling impact on task accuracy. Across eight downstream tasks, we find that when accounting for inference cost, optimal pretraining decisions shift radically into the overtraining regime, well-outside of the range of standard pretraining scaling suites. We validate our results by pretraining heavily overtrained models in the optimal region that T^2 scaling forecasts, confirming their substantially stronger performance compared to pretraining scaling alone. Finally, as frontier LLMs are post-trained, we show that our findings survive the post-training stage, making T^2 scaling meaningful in modern deployments.

Transformers have made great progress in dealing with computer vision tasks. However, existing vision transformers do not yet possess the ability of building the interactions among features of different scales, which is perceptually important to visual inputs. The reasons are two-fold: (1) Input embeddings of each layer are equal-scale, so no cross-scale feature can be extracted; (2) to lower the computational cost, some vision transformers merge adjacent embeddings inside the self-attention module, thus sacrificing small-scale (fine-grained) features of the embeddings and also disabling the cross-scale interactions. To this end, we propose Cross-scale Embedding Layer (CEL) and Long Short Distance Attention (LSDA). On the one hand, CEL blends each embedding with multiple patches of different scales, providing the self-attention module itself with cross-scale features. On the other hand, LSDA splits the self-attention module into a short-distance one and a long-distance counterpart, which not only reduces the computational burden but also keeps both small-scale and large-scale features in the embeddings. Through the above two designs, we achieve cross-scale attention. Besides, we put forward a dynamic position bias for vision transformers to make the popular relative position bias apply to variable-sized images. Hinging on the cross-scale attention module, we construct a versatile vision architecture, dubbed CrossFormer, which accommodates variable-sized inputs. Extensive experiments show that CrossFormer outperforms the other vision transformers on image classification, object detection, instance segmentation, and semantic segmentation tasks. The code has been released: https://github.com/cheerss/CrossFormer.

Cascaded models are multi-scale generative models with a marked capacity for producing perceptually impressive samples at high resolutions. In this work, we show that they can also be excellent likelihood models, so long as we overcome a fundamental difficulty with probabilistic multi-scale models: the intractability of the likelihood function. Chiefly, in cascaded models each intermediary scale introduces extraneous variables that cannot be tractably marginalized out for likelihood evaluation. This issue vanishes by modeling the diffusion process on latent spaces induced by a class of transformations we call hierarchical volume-preserving maps, which decompose spatially structured data in a hierarchical fashion without introducing local distortions in the latent space. We demonstrate that two such maps are well-known in the literature for multiscale modeling: Laplacian pyramids and wavelet transforms. Not only do such reparameterizations allow the likelihood function to be directly expressed as a joint likelihood over the scales, we show that the Laplacian pyramid and wavelet transform also produces significant improvements to the state-of-the-art on a selection of benchmarks in likelihood modeling, including density estimation, lossless compression, and out-of-distribution detection. Investigating the theoretical basis of our empirical gains we uncover deep connections to score matching under the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), which is a well-known surrogate for perceptual similarity. Code can be found at https://github.com/lihenryhfl/pcdm{this https url}.

Scaling laws are well studied for language models and first-stage retrieval, but not for reranking. We present the first systematic study of scaling laws for cross-encoder rerankers across pointwise, pairwise, and listwise objectives. Across model size and training exposure, ranking quality follows predictable power laws, enabling larger rerankers to be forecast from smaller runs. Using models up to 150M parameters, we forecast 400M and 1B rerankers on MSMARCO-dev and TREC DL. Beyond forecasting, we derive compute-allocation rules from the fitted joint scaling law and compare them with equal-compute checkpoints, showing that retrieval metrics often favor data-heavy scaling, though the recommendation depends on the training objective. The forecasts are accurate and typically conservative, making them useful for planning expensive large-model training. These results provide practical scaling principles for industrial reranking systems, and we will release code and evaluation protocols.

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose elements depend not only on the target but also on unknown factors shared across the set. Optimal inference therefore requires treating the set jointly, which in turn requires training the estimator at the deployment set size -- a regime where memory and compute quickly become prohibitive. We introduce a simple, theoretically grounded strategy that decouples representation learning from posterior modeling. Our method trains a mean-pool Deep Set on sets of size at most two, producing an encoder that generalizes to arbitrary set sizes. The inference head is then finetuned on pre-aggregated embeddings, making training cost essentially independent of the deployment set size N. Across scalar, image, multi-view 3D, molecular, and high-dimensional conditional generation benchmarks with N in the thousands, our approach matches or outperforms standard baselines at a fraction of the compute.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

This study explores the role of cross-attention during inference in text-conditional diffusion models. We find that cross-attention outputs converge to a fixed point after few inference steps. Accordingly, the time point of convergence naturally divides the entire inference process into two stages: an initial semantics-planning stage, during which, the model relies on cross-attention to plan text-oriented visual semantics, and a subsequent fidelity-improving stage, during which the model tries to generate images from previously planned semantics. Surprisingly, ignoring text conditions in the fidelity-improving stage not only reduces computation complexity, but also maintains model performance. This yields a simple and training-free method called TGATE for efficient generation, which caches the cross-attention output once it converges and keeps it fixed during the remaining inference steps. Our empirical study on the MS-COCO validation set confirms its effectiveness. The source code of TGATE is available at https://github.com/HaozheLiu-ST/T-GATE.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shifted focus toward scaling inference-time compute, improving performance without retraining the model. A common approach is to sample multiple outputs in parallel, and select one of these as the final output. However, work to date has focused on English and a handful of domains such as math and code. In contrast, we are most interested in techniques that generalize across open-ended tasks, formally verifiable tasks, and across languages. In this work, we study how to robustly scale inference-time compute for open-ended generative tasks in a multilingual, multi-task setting. Our findings show that both sampling strategy based on temperature variation and selection strategy must be adapted to account for diverse domains and varied language settings. We evaluate existing selection methods, revealing that strategies effective in English often fail to generalize across languages. We propose novel sampling and selection strategies specifically adapted for multilingual and multi-task inference scenarios, and show they yield notable gains across languages and tasks. In particular, our combined sampling and selection methods lead to an average +6.8 jump in win-rates for our 8B models on m-ArenaHard-v2.0 prompts, against proprietary models such as Gemini. At larger scale, Command-A (111B model) equipped with our methods, shows +9.0 improvement in win-rates on the same benchmark with just five samples against single-sample decoding, a substantial increase at minimal cost. Our results underscore the need for language- and task-aware approaches to inference-time compute, aiming to democratize performance improvements in underrepresented languages.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Scaling laws are powerful tools to predict the performance of large language models. However, current scaling laws fall short of accounting for inference costs. In this work, we first show that model architecture affects inference latency, where models of the same size can have up to 3.5x difference in latency. To tackle this challenge, we modify the Chinchilla scaling laws to co-optimize the model parameter count, the number of training tokens, and the model architecture. Due to the reason that models of similar training loss exhibit gaps in downstream evaluation, we also propose a novel method to train inference-efficient models based on the revised scaling laws. We perform extensive empirical studies to fit and evaluate our inference-aware scaling laws. We vary model parameters from 80M to 1B, training tokens from 1.6B to 30B, and model shapes, training a total of 63 models. Guided by our inference-efficient scaling law and model selection method, we release the Morph-1B model, which improves inference latency by 1.8x while maintaining accuracy on downstream tasks compared to open-source models, pushing the Pareto frontier of accuracy-latency tradeoff.

The scaling of inference computation has unlocked the potential of long-context large language models (LLMs) across diverse settings. For knowledge-intensive tasks, the increased compute is often allocated to incorporate more external knowledge. However, without effectively utilizing such knowledge, solely expanding context does not always enhance performance. In this work, we investigate inference scaling for retrieval augmented generation (RAG), exploring strategies beyond simply increasing the quantity of knowledge. We focus on two inference scaling strategies: in-context learning and iterative prompting. These strategies provide additional flexibility to scale test-time computation (e.g., by increasing retrieved documents or generation steps), thereby enhancing LLMs' ability to effectively acquire and utilize contextual information. We address two key questions: (1) How does RAG performance benefit from the scaling of inference computation when optimally configured? (2) Can we predict the optimal test-time compute allocation for a given budget by modeling the relationship between RAG performance and inference parameters? Our observations reveal that increasing inference computation leads to nearly linear gains in RAG performance when optimally allocated, a relationship we describe as the inference scaling laws for RAG. Building on this, we further develop the computation allocation model to estimate RAG performance across different inference configurations. The model predicts optimal inference parameters under various computation constraints, which align closely with the experimental results. By applying these optimal configurations, we demonstrate that scaling inference compute on long-context LLMs achieves up to 58.9% gains on benchmark datasets compared to standard RAG.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have accelerated progress toward artificial general intelligence, with inference-time scaling emerging as a key technique. Contemporary approaches leverage either sequential reasoning (iteratively extending chains of thought) or parallel reasoning (generating multiple solutions simultaneously) to scale inference. However, both paradigms face fundamental limitations: sequential scaling typically relies on arbitrary token budgets for termination, leading to inefficiency or premature cutoff; while parallel scaling often lacks coordination among parallel branches and requires intrusive fine-tuning to perform effectively. In light of these challenges, we aim to design a flexible test-time collaborative inference framework that exploits the complementary strengths of both sequential and parallel reasoning paradigms. Towards this goal, the core challenge lies in developing an efficient and accurate intrinsic quality metric to assess model responses during collaborative inference, enabling dynamic control and early termination of the reasoning trace. To address this challenge, we introduce semantic entropy (SE), which quantifies the semantic diversity of parallel model responses and serves as a robust indicator of reasoning quality due to its strong negative correlation with accuracy...

Recent advancements in visual autoregressive models (VAR) have demonstrated their effectiveness in image generation, highlighting their potential for real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR). However, adapting VAR for ISR presents critical challenges. The next-scale prediction mechanism, constrained by causal attention, fails to fully exploit global low-quality (LQ) context, resulting in blurry and inconsistent high-quality (HQ) outputs. Additionally, error accumulation in the iterative prediction severely degrades coherence in ISR task. To address these issues, we propose VARestorer, a simple yet effective distillation framework that transforms a pre-trained text-to-image VAR model into a one-step ISR model. By leveraging distribution matching, our method eliminates the need for iterative refinement, significantly reducing error propagation and inference time. Furthermore, we introduce pyramid image conditioning with cross-scale attention, which enables bidirectional scale-wise interactions and fully utilizes the input image information while adapting to the autoregressive mechanism. This prevents later LQ tokens from being overlooked in the transformer. By fine-tuning only 1.2\% of the model parameters through parameter-efficient adapters, our method maintains the expressive power of the original VAR model while significantly enhancing efficiency. Extensive experiments show that VARestorer achieves state-of-the-art performance with 72.32 MUSIQ and 0.7669 CLIPIQA on DIV2K dataset, while accelerating inference by 10 times compared to conventional VAR inference.

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and promising performance. In this work, we present TTS-VAR, the first general test-time scaling framework for visual auto-regressive (VAR) models, modeling the generation process as a path searching problem. To dynamically balance computational efficiency with exploration capacity, we first introduce an adaptive descending batch size schedule throughout the causal generation process. Besides, inspired by VAR's hierarchical coarse-to-fine multi-scale generation, our framework integrates two key components: (i) At coarse scales, we observe that generated tokens are hard for evaluation, possibly leading to erroneous acceptance of inferior samples or rejection of superior samples. Noticing that the coarse scales contain sufficient structural information, we propose clustering-based diversity search. It preserves structural variety through semantic feature clustering, enabling later selection on samples with higher potential. (ii) In fine scales, resampling-based potential selection prioritizes promising candidates using potential scores, which are defined as reward functions incorporating multi-scale generation history. Experiments on the powerful VAR model Infinity show a notable 8.7% GenEval score improvement (from 0.69 to 0.75). Key insights reveal that early-stage structural features effectively influence final quality, and resampling efficacy varies across generation scales. Code is available at https://github.com/ali-vilab/TTS-VAR.

Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) has pioneered a coarse-to-fine multi-scale autoregressive generative paradigm, demonstrating strong capabilities in image generation. However, VAR still suffers from inherent deficiencies in multi-scale representation learning. Specifically, lower scales primarily capture global semantics, while higher scales focus on fine-grained details. Employing a shared architecture across scales induces optimization conflicts. Moreover, due to the causal autoregressive process, inaccurate semantics at early scales can propagate and significantly degrade the final output. To address these issues, we introduce a scale-aware token-routed Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture, allowing scale-adaptive expert selection, thereby facilitating decoupled representation learning across scales. In addition, we enhance semantic modeling at early scales by incorporating external self-supervised features. Unlike naive alignment, we analyse and design a residual feature aggregation scheme tailored to the VAR paradigm. Extensive experiments show that our method significantly improves both training efficiency and generation quality. On the ImageNet 256*256 benchmark, our model achieves a superior FID compared to the dense baseline while requiring only half of the default training epochs and a smaller parameter budget, with a merely marginal increase in training cost. Moreover, the performance gap further widens with larger training epochs.

Understanding and decoding brain activity from electroencephalography (EEG) signals is a fundamental challenge in neuroscience and AI, with applications in cognition, emotion recognition, diagnosis, and brain-computer interfaces. While recent EEG foundation models advance generalized decoding via unified architectures and large-scale pretraining, they adopt a scale-agnostic dense modeling paradigm inherited from NLP and vision. This design neglects a core property of neural activity: cross-scale spatiotemporal structure. EEG task patterns span a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, from short bursts to slow rhythms, and from localized cortical responses to distributed interactions. Ignoring this diversity leads to suboptimal representations and weak generalization. We propose CSBrain, a Cross-scale Spatiotemporal Brain foundation model for generalized EEG decoding. CSBrain introduces: (i) Cross-scale Spatiotemporal Tokenization (CST), which aggregates multi-scale features from localized temporal windows and anatomical brain regions into compact scale-aware tokens; and (ii) Structured Sparse Attention (SSA), which captures cross-window and cross-region dependencies, enhancing scale diversity while removing spurious correlations. CST and SSA are alternately stacked to progressively integrate multi-scale dependencies. Experiments on 11 EEG tasks across 16 datasets show that CSBrain consistently outperforms task-specific and foundation model baselines. These results establish cross-scale modeling as a key inductive bias and position CSBrain as a robust backbone for future brain-AI research.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, existing approaches mainly rely on imitation learning and struggle to achieve effective test-time scaling. While reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for enabling self-exploration and learning from feedback, recent attempts yield only modest improvements in complex reasoning. In this paper, we present T1 to scale RL by encouraging exploration and understand inference scaling. We first initialize the LLM using synthesized chain-of-thought data that integrates trial-and-error and self-verification. To scale RL training, we promote increased sampling diversity through oversampling. We further employ an entropy bonus as an auxiliary loss, alongside a dynamic anchor for regularization to facilitate reward optimization. We demonstrate that T1 with open LLMs as its base exhibits inference scaling behavior and achieves superior performance on challenging math reasoning benchmarks. For example, T1 with Qwen2.5-32B as the base model outperforms the recent Qwen QwQ-32B-Preview model on MATH500, AIME2024, and Omni-math-500. More importantly, we present a simple strategy to examine inference scaling, where increased inference budgets directly lead to T1's better performance without any additional verification. We will open-source the T1 models and the data used to train them at https://github.com/THUDM/T1.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

It is commonly believed that scaling language models should commit a significant space or time cost, by increasing the parameters (parameter scaling) or output tokens (inference-time scaling). We introduce the third and more inference-efficient scaling paradigm: increasing the model's parallel computation during both training and inference time. We apply P diverse and learnable transformations to the input, execute forward passes of the model in parallel, and dynamically aggregate the P outputs. This method, namely parallel scaling (ParScale), scales parallel computation by reusing existing parameters and can be applied to any model structure, optimization procedure, data, or task. We theoretically propose a new scaling law and validate it through large-scale pre-training, which shows that a model with P parallel streams is similar to scaling the parameters by O(log P) while showing superior inference efficiency. For example, ParScale can use up to 22times less memory increase and 6times less latency increase compared to parameter scaling that achieves the same performance improvement. It can also recycle an off-the-shelf pre-trained model into a parallelly scaled one by post-training on a small amount of tokens, further reducing the training budget. The new scaling law we discovered potentially facilitates the deployment of more powerful models in low-resource scenarios, and provides an alternative perspective for the role of computation in machine learning.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Standard evaluation protocols reveal a counterintuitive phenomenon: on 7.7% of benchmark problems spanning five datasets, larger language models underperform smaller ones by 28.4 percentage points despite 10-100x more parameters. Through systematic evaluation of 31 models (0.5B-405B parameters) across 1,485 problems, we identify the mechanism as spontaneous scale-dependent verbosity that introduces errors through overelaboration. Causal intervention experiments demonstrate this reflects correctable prompt design rather than fundamental capability limitations. Constraining large models to produce brief responses improves accuracy by 26 percentage points and reduces performance gaps by up to two-thirds. Most critically, brevity constraints completely reverse performance hierarchies on mathematical reasoning and scientific knowledge benchmarks, with large models achieving 7.7-15.9 percentage point advantages over small models -- direct inversions of the original gaps. These reversals prove large models possess superior latent capabilities that universal prompting masks. We validate findings through three independent contamination tests and demonstrate inverse scaling operates continuously across the full parameter spectrum, with dataset-specific optimal scales ranging from 0.5B to 3.0B parameters. Our results establish that maximizing large model performance requires scale-aware prompt engineering rather than universal evaluation protocols, with immediate implications for deployment: prompt adaptation simultaneously improves accuracy and reduces computational costs.

Low precision training and inference affect both the quality and cost of language models, but current scaling laws do not account for this. In this work, we devise "precision-aware" scaling laws for both training and inference. We propose that training in lower precision reduces the model's "effective parameter count," allowing us to predict the additional loss incurred from training in low precision and post-train quantization. For inference, we find that the degradation introduced by post-training quantization increases as models are trained on more data, eventually making additional pretraining data actively harmful. For training, our scaling laws allow us to predict the loss of a model with different parts in different precisions, and suggest that training larger models in lower precision may be compute optimal. We unify the scaling laws for post and pretraining quantization to arrive at a single functional form that predicts degradation from training and inference in varied precisions. We fit on over 465 pretraining runs and validate our predictions on model sizes up to 1.7B parameters trained on up to 26B tokens.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Causal discovery is essential for advancing data-driven fields such as scientific AI and data analysis, yet existing approaches face significant time- and space-efficiency bottlenecks when scaling to large graphs. To address this challenge, we present CauScale, a neural architecture designed for efficient causal discovery that scales inference to graphs with up to 1000 nodes. CauScale improves time efficiency via a reduction unit that compresses data embeddings and improves space efficiency by adopting tied attention weights to avoid maintaining axis-specific attention maps. To keep high causal discovery accuracy, CauScale adopts a two-stream design: a data stream extracts relational evidence from high-dimensional observations, while a graph stream integrates statistical graph priors and preserves key structural signals. CauScale successfully scales to 500-node graphs during training, where prior work fails due to space limitations. Across testing data with varying graph scales and causal mechanisms, CauScale achieves 99.6% mAP on in-distribution data and 84.4% on out-of-distribution data, while delivering 4-13,000 times inference speedups over prior methods. Our project page is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauScale.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful alternative to parameter scaling for improving language model performance on complex reasoning tasks. While existing methods have shown strong performance gains under fixed compute budgets, there has been little focus on optimally utilizing that budget during inference. In this work, we introduce A*-decoding, a search-based inference-time strategy that builds on the A* search algorithm to optimally utilize a fixed compute budget by prioritizing high-quality reasoning paths during generation. We frame language model decoding as a structured search in a state space of partial solutions, applying the A* transition model to identify promising continuations guided by an external process supervision signal. In our experiments, A*-decoding reaches the performance levels of strong inference scaling baselines like best-of-N and particle filtering while using up to 3x fewer tokens and 30% fewer PRM passes under equivalent compute budgets. On the MATH500 and AIME 2024 benchmarks, A*-decoding enables Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct to match the performance of the 70x larger Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct, and allows Qwen3-1.7B to reach o1-like reasoning accuracy. These results highlight the power of structured search in decoding, offering an alternative to brute-force sampling or scale-driven gains. Our work demonstrates how thoughtful inference-time strategies can enhance reasoning in SLMs, pointing toward future advances in more efficient and scalable language model deployment.

Recent advances in probabilistic modelling have led to a large number of simulation-based inference algorithms which do not require numerical evaluation of likelihoods. However, a public benchmark with appropriate performance metrics for such 'likelihood-free' algorithms has been lacking. This has made it difficult to compare algorithms and identify their strengths and weaknesses. We set out to fill this gap: We provide a benchmark with inference tasks and suitable performance metrics, with an initial selection of algorithms including recent approaches employing neural networks and classical Approximate Bayesian Computation methods. We found that the choice of performance metric is critical, that even state-of-the-art algorithms have substantial room for improvement, and that sequential estimation improves sample efficiency. Neural network-based approaches generally exhibit better performance, but there is no uniformly best algorithm. We provide practical advice and highlight the potential of the benchmark to diagnose problems and improve algorithms. The results can be explored interactively on a companion website. All code is open source, making it possible to contribute further benchmark tasks and inference algorithms.

Scaling laws have transformed our understanding of large language models by linking upstream metrics like cross-entropy loss to design factors such as model size, training data, and compute. However, these conventional laws fail to capture downstream task performance, where context plays a critical role. In this work, we propose a straightforward, interpretable framework that jointly models downstream performance as a function of the training compute and the provided context. We empirically validate our framework by fitting it on the observed downstream performance of extended-context variants of Llama-2-7B and Llama-2-13B across 65,500 unique instances spanning three tasks: arithmetic reasoning, common sense reasoning, and machine translation. Our results demonstrate that our framework accurately models in-distribution downstream performance, generalizes across three orders of magnitude in training compute, and reliably extrapolates performance as the amount of context increases. These findings offer valuable insights into the interplay between training compute and context utilization, providing guidance for designing more efficient long-context LLMs for diverse downstream tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wang-research-lab/context-scaling.

Multi-scale learning is central to semantic segmentation. We visualize the effective receptive field (ERF) of canonical multi-scale representations and point out two risks in learning them: scale inadequacy and field inactivation. A novel multi-scale learner, varying window attention (VWA), is presented to address these issues. VWA leverages the local window attention (LWA) and disentangles LWA into the query window and context window, allowing the context's scale to vary for the query to learn representations at multiple scales. However, varying the context to large-scale windows (enlarging ratio R) can significantly increase the memory footprint and computation cost (R^2 times larger than LWA). We propose a simple but professional re-scaling strategy to zero the extra induced cost without compromising performance. Consequently, VWA uses the same cost as LWA to overcome the receptive limitation of the local window. Furthermore, depending on VWA and employing various MLPs, we introduce a multi-scale decoder (MSD), VWFormer, to improve multi-scale representations for semantic segmentation. VWFormer achieves efficiency competitive with the most compute-friendly MSDs, like FPN and MLP decoder, but performs much better than any MSDs. For instance, using nearly half of UPerNet's computation, VWFormer outperforms it by 1.0%-2.5% mIoU on ADE20K. With little extra overhead, ~10G FLOPs, Mask2Former armed with VWFormer improves by 1.0%-1.3%. The code and models are available at https://github.com/yan-hao-tian/vw

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for mathematical tasks, the broader impact of this approach on other tasks remains less clear. In this work, we investigate the benefits and limitations of scaling methods across nine state-of-the-art models and eight challenging tasks, including math and STEM reasoning, calendar planning, NP-hard problems, navigation, and spatial reasoning. We compare conventional models (e.g., GPT-4o) with models fine-tuned for inference-time scaling (e.g., o1) through evaluation protocols that involve repeated model calls, either independently or sequentially with feedback. These evaluations approximate lower and upper performance bounds and potential for future performance improvements for each model, whether through enhanced training or multi-model inference systems. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals that the advantages of inference-time scaling vary across tasks and diminish as problem complexity increases. In addition, simply using more tokens does not necessarily translate to higher accuracy in these challenging regimes. Results from multiple independent runs with conventional models using perfect verifiers show that, for some tasks, these models can achieve performance close to the average performance of today's most advanced reasoning models. However, for other tasks, a significant performance gap remains, even in very high scaling regimes. Encouragingly, all models demonstrate significant gains when inference is further scaled with perfect verifiers or strong feedback, suggesting ample potential for future improvements.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

Fully comprehending scientific papers by machines reflects a high level of Artificial General Intelligence, requiring the ability to reason across fragmented and heterogeneous sources of information, presenting a complex and practically significant challenge. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have made remarkable strides in various tasks, particularly those involving reasoning with evidence source from single image or text page, their ability to use cross-source information for reasoning remains an open problem. This work presents MMCR, a high-difficulty benchmark designed to evaluate VLMs' capacity for reasoning with cross-source information from scientific papers. The benchmark comprises 276 high-quality questions, meticulously annotated by humans across 7 subjects and 10 task types. Experiments with 18 VLMs demonstrate that cross-source reasoning presents a substantial challenge for existing models. Notably, even the top-performing model, GPT-4o, achieved only 48.55% overall accuracy, with only 20% accuracy in multi-table comprehension tasks, while the second-best model, Qwen2.5-VL-72B, reached 39.86% overall accuracy. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) technique on cross-source reasoning and observed a detrimental effect on small models, whereas larger models demonstrated substantially enhanced performance. These results highlight the pressing need to develop VLMs capable of effectively utilizing cross-source information for reasoning.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for fast inference by querying it on new test observations. Because NPE is estimated under the training data distribution, it is susceptible to misspecification when observations deviate from the training distribution. Many robust SBI approaches address this by modifying NPE training or introducing error models, coupling robustness to the inference network and compromising amortization and modularity. We introduce minimum-distance summaries, a plug-in robust NPE method that adapts queried test-time summaries independently of the pretrained NPE. Leveraging the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a distance between observed data and a summary-conditional predictive distribution, the adapted summary inherits strong robustness properties from the MMD. We demonstrate that the algorithm can be implemented efficiently with random Fourier feature approximations, yielding a lightweight, model-free test-time adaptation procedure. We provide theoretical guarantees for the robustness of our algorithm and empirically evaluate it on a range of synthetic and real-world tasks, demonstrating substantial robustness gains with minimal additional overhead.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Large language models perform well on many medical QA benchmarks, but real clinical reasoning often requires integrating evidence across multiple images rather than interpreting a single view. We introduce MedThinkVQA, an expert-annotated benchmark for thinking with multiple images, where models must interpret each image, combine cross-view evidence, and answer diagnostic questions with intermediate supervision and step-level evaluation. The dataset contains 8,067 cases, including 720 test cases, with an average of 6.62 images per case, substantially denser than prior work, whose expert-level benchmarks use at most 1.43 images per case. On the test set, the best closed-source models, Claude-4.6-Opus, Gemini-3-Pro, and GPT-5.2-xhigh, reach only 57.2%, 55.3%, and 54.9% accuracy, while GPT-5-mini and GPT-5-nano reach 39.7% and 30.8%. Strong open-source models lag behind, led by Qwen3.5-397B-A17B at 52.2% and Qwen3.5-27B at 50.6%. Further analysis identifies grounded multi-image reasoning as the main bottleneck: models often fail to extract, align, and compose evidence across views before higher-level inference can help. Providing expert single-image cues and cross-image summaries improves performance, whereas replacing them with self-generated intermediates reduces accuracy. Step-level analysis shows that over 70% of errors arise from image reading and cross-view integration. Scaling results further show that additional inference-time computation helps only when visual grounding is already reliable; when early evidence extraction is weak, longer reasoning yields limited or unstable gains and can amplify misread cues. These results suggest that the key challenge is not reasoning length alone, but reliable mechanisms for grounding, aligning, and composing distributed evidence across real-world multimodal clinical inputs.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

While 4-bit quantization has emerged as a memory-optimal choice for non-reasoning models and zero-shot tasks across scales, we show that this universal prescription fails for reasoning models, where the KV cache rather than model size can dominate memory. Through systematic experiments across 1,700 inference scenarios on AIME25 and GPQA-Diamond, we find a scale-dependent trade-off: models with an effective size below 8-bit 4B parameters achieve better accuracy by allocating memory to more weights rather than longer generation, while larger models achieve better accuracy by allocating memory to longer generations. This scale threshold also determines when parallel scaling becomes memory-efficient and whether KV cache eviction outperforms KV quantization. Our findings show that memory optimization for LLMs cannot be scale-agnostic, while providing principled guidelines: for small reasoning models, prioritize model capacity over test-time compute, while for larger ones, maximize test-time compute. Our results suggest that optimizing reasoning models for deployment requires fundamentally different strategies from those established for non-reasoning models.

Self-consistency (SC) is a widely used test-time inference technique for improving performance in chain-of-thought reasoning. It involves generating multiple responses, or samples from a large language model (LLM) and selecting the most frequent answer. This procedure can naturally be viewed as a majority vote or empirical mode estimation. Despite its effectiveness, SC is prohibitively expensive at scale when naively applied to datasets, and it lacks a unified theoretical treatment of sample efficiency and scaling behavior. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of SC's scaling behavior and its variants, drawing on mode estimation and voting theory. We derive and empirically validate power law scaling for self-consistency across datasets, and analyze the sample efficiency for fixed-allocation and dynamic-allocation sampling schemes. From these insights, we introduce Blend-ASC, a novel variant of self-consistency that dynamically allocates samples to questions during inference, achieving state-of-the-art sample efficiency. Our approach uses 6.8x fewer samples than vanilla SC on average, outperforming both fixed- and dynamic-allocation SC baselines, thereby demonstrating the superiority of our approach in terms of efficiency. In contrast to existing variants, Blend-ASC is hyperparameter-free and can fit an arbitrary sample budget, ensuring it can be easily applied to any self-consistency application.

Recent developments in large language models have shown advantages in reallocating a notable share of computational resource from training time to inference time. However, the principles behind inference time scaling are not well understood. In this paper, we introduce an analytically tractable model of inference-time scaling: Bayesian linear regression with a reward-weighted sampler, where the reward is determined from a linear model, modeling LLM-as-a-judge scenario. We study this problem in the high-dimensional regime, where the deterministic equivalents dictate a closed-form expression for the posterior predictive mean and variance. We analyze the generalization error when training data are sampled from a teacher model. We draw k inference-time samples and select via softmax at a temperature applied to a quadratic reward. When the reward is not too different from the teacher, the generalization error decreases monotonically with increasing inference time samples k. However, the specific reward that optimizes inference-time selection generally differs from the teacher. In contrast, substantial reward misspecification induces a finite optimal k beyond which more sampling can increase the generalization error. For fixed k, there exists an optimal sampling temperature. We experimentally verify these facts in large language model inference with an additional large language model as a judge. In the "best-of-k" limit with the teacher as reward, we theoretically show that the generalization error decays as Θ(1/k^2) and determine the leading coefficient via extreme value theory. These formulas delineate domains where scaling inference-time computation is provably preferable to collecting more data. Finally, we demonstrate that when task difficulty increases, the previously mentioned advantage of inference-time compute degrades.

In studies of transferable learning, scaling laws are obtained for various important foundation models to predict their properties and performance at larger scales. We show here how scaling law derivation can also be used for model and dataset comparison, allowing to decide which procedure is to be preferred for pre-training. For the first time, full scaling laws based on dense measurements across a wide span of model and samples seen scales are derived for two important language-vision learning procedures, CLIP and MaMMUT, that use either contrastive only or contrastive and captioning text generative loss. Ensuring sufficient prediction accuracy for held out points, we use derived scaling laws to compare both models, obtaining evidence for MaMMUT's stronger improvement with scale and better sample efficiency than standard CLIP. To strengthen validity of the comparison, we show scaling laws for various downstream tasks, classification, retrieval, and segmentation, and for different open datasets, DataComp, DFN and Re-LAION, observing consistently the same trends. We show that comparison can also be performed when deriving scaling laws with a constant learning rate schedule, reducing compute cost. Accurate derivation of scaling laws provides thus means to perform model and dataset comparison across scale spans, avoiding misleading conclusions based on measurements from single reference scales only, paving the road for systematic comparison and improvement of open foundation models and datasets for their creation. We release all the pre-trained models with their intermediate checkpoints, including openMaMMUT-L/14, which achieves 80.3% zero-shot ImageNet-1k accuracy, trained on 12.8B samples from DataComp-1.4B. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-for-comparison.

Scaling up the size of vision models has been the de facto standard to obtain more powerful visual representations. In this work, we discuss the point beyond which larger vision models are not necessary. First, we demonstrate the power of Scaling on Scales (S^2), whereby a pre-trained and frozen smaller vision model (e.g., ViT-B or ViT-L), run over multiple image scales, can outperform larger models (e.g., ViT-H or ViT-G) on classification, segmentation, depth estimation, Multimodal LLM (MLLM) benchmarks, and robotic manipulation. Notably, S^2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in detailed understanding of MLLM on the V* benchmark, surpassing models such as GPT-4V. We examine the conditions under which S^2 is a preferred scaling approach compared to scaling on model size. While larger models have the advantage of better generalization on hard examples, we show that features of larger vision models can be well approximated by those of multi-scale smaller models. This suggests most, if not all, of the representations learned by current large pre-trained models can also be obtained from multi-scale smaller models. Our results show that a multi-scale smaller model has comparable learning capacity to a larger model, and pre-training smaller models with S^2 can match or even exceed the advantage of larger models. We release a Python package that can apply S^2 on any vision model with one line of code: https://github.com/bfshi/scaling_on_scales.

Scaling laws for inference compute in multi-agent systems remain under-explored compared to single-agent scenarios. This work aims to bridge this gap by investigating the problem of data synthesis through multi-agent sampling, where synthetic responses are generated by sampling from multiple distinct language models. Effective model coordination is crucial for successful multi-agent collaboration. Unlike previous approaches that rely on fixed workflows, we treat model coordination as a multi-step decision-making process, optimizing generation structures dynamically for each input question. We introduce Tree Search-based Orchestrated Agents~(TOA), where the workflow evolves iteratively during the sequential sampling process. To achieve this, we leverage Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), integrating a reward model to provide real-time feedback and accelerate exploration. Our experiments on alignment, machine translation, and mathematical reasoning demonstrate that multi-agent sampling significantly outperforms single-agent sampling as inference compute scales. TOA is the most compute-efficient approach, achieving SOTA performance on WMT and a 71.8\% LC win rate on AlpacaEval. Moreover, fine-tuning with our synthesized alignment data surpasses strong preference learning methods on challenging benchmarks such as Arena-Hard and AlpacaEval.

Multimodal language models possess a remarkable ability to handle an open-vocabulary's worth of objects. Yet the best models still suffer from hallucinations when reasoning about scenes in the real world, revealing a gap between their seemingly strong performance on existing perception benchmarks that are saturating and their reasoning in the real world. To address this gap, we build a novel benchmark of in-the-wild scenes that we call Common-O. With more than 10.5k examples using exclusively new images not found in web training data to avoid contamination, Common-O goes beyond just perception, inspired by cognitive tests for humans, to probe reasoning across scenes by asking "what's in common?". We evaluate leading multimodal language models, including models specifically trained to perform chain-of-thought reasoning. We find that perceiving objects in single images is tractable for most models, yet reasoning across scenes is very challenging even for the best models, including reasoning models. Despite saturating many leaderboards focusing on perception, the best performing model only achieves 35% on Common-O -- and on Common-O Complex, consisting of more complex scenes, the best model achieves only 1%. Curiously, we find models are more prone to hallucinate when similar objects are present in the scene, suggesting models may be relying on object co-occurrence seen during training. Among the models we evaluated, we found scale can provide modest improvements while models explicitly trained with multi-image inputs show bigger improvements, suggesting scaled multi-image training may offer promise. We make our benchmark publicly available to spur research into the challenge of hallucination when reasoning across scenes.

Generative AI models exhibit remarkable potential; however, hallucinations across various tasks present a significant challenge, particularly for longer inputs that current approaches struggle to address effectively. We introduce SCALE (Source Chunking Approach for Large-scale inconsistency Evaluation), a task-agnostic model for detecting factual inconsistencies using a novel chunking strategy. Specifically, SCALE is a Natural Language Inference (NLI) based model that uses large text chunks to condition over long texts. This approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in factual inconsistency detection for diverse tasks and long inputs. Additionally, we leverage the chunking mechanism and employ a novel algorithm to explain SCALE's decisions through relevant source sentence retrieval. Our evaluations reveal that SCALE outperforms existing methods on both standard benchmarks and a new long-form dialogue dataset ScreenEval we constructed. Moreover, SCALE surpasses competitive systems in efficiency and model explanation evaluations. We have released our code and data publicly to GitHub.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our results show that all benchmarked algorithms -- (Sequential) Neural Posterior Estimation, (Sequential) Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood and variants of Approximate Bayesian Computation -- can yield overconfident posterior approximations, which makes them unreliable for scientific use cases and falsificationist inquiry. Failing to address this issue may reduce the range of applicability of simulation-based inference. For this reason, we argue that research efforts should be made towards theoretical and methodological developments of conservative approximate inference algorithms and present research directions towards this objective. In this regard, we show empirical evidence that ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations and mitigates the issue.

Neural scaling laws approximate a language model's loss as a power-law function of parameter count N and token count D. Following Chinchilla-style compute-optimal training, many studies fit scaling laws from runs performed under a fixed tokens-per-parameter (TPP) ratio k and set D = kN. We show that this collinear design, combined with the empirically common near-equality of the exponents governing N and D, induces an inherent ill-conditioning in the Gauss-Newton least-squares problem: the condition number of the design grows as the inverse square of the gap between the N and D-exponents. The scale coefficients become practically unidentifiable, with confidence intervals inflating by an order of magnitude or more, yielding a ``sloppy'' model whose extrapolations degrade sharply off the training ray. We prove this for four scaling-law formalisms and derive a closed-form TPP-diversity threshold that is necessary and sufficient for well-conditioned estimation. Empirically, non-collinear designs outperform collinear ones on held-out splits with a 97.3\% win rate across four laws, five corpora, multiple floating point precision modes. We further show the degeneracy is rooted in Jacobian geometry and is not an artifact of the loss function: any smooth estimation objective whose curvature involves the Jacobian inherits the same ill-conditioning.

We show that the way inference is performed in few-shot segmentation tasks has a substantial effect on performances -- an aspect often overlooked in the literature in favor of the meta-learning paradigm. We introduce a transductive inference for a given query image, leveraging the statistics of its unlabeled pixels, by optimizing a new loss containing three complementary terms: i) the cross-entropy on the labeled support pixels; ii) the Shannon entropy of the posteriors on the unlabeled query-image pixels; and iii) a global KL-divergence regularizer based on the proportion of the predicted foreground. As our inference uses a simple linear classifier of the extracted features, its computational load is comparable to inductive inference and can be used on top of any base training. Foregoing episodic training and using only standard cross-entropy training on the base classes, our inference yields competitive performances on standard benchmarks in the 1-shot scenarios. As the number of available shots increases, the gap in performances widens: on PASCAL-5i, our method brings about 5% and 6% improvements over the state-of-the-art, in the 5- and 10-shot scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce a new setting that includes domain shifts, where the base and novel classes are drawn from different datasets. Our method achieves the best performances in this more realistic setting. Our code is freely available online: https://github.com/mboudiaf/RePRI-for-Few-Shot-Segmentation.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Cross Attention is a popular method for retrieving information from a set of context tokens for making predictions. At inference time, for each prediction, Cross Attention scans the full set of O(N) tokens. In practice, however, often only a small subset of tokens are required for good performance. Methods such as Perceiver IO are cheap at inference as they distill the information to a smaller-sized set of latent tokens L < N on which cross attention is then applied, resulting in only O(L) complexity. However, in practice, as the number of input tokens and the amount of information to distill increases, the number of latent tokens needed also increases significantly. In this work, we propose Tree Cross Attention (TCA) - a module based on Cross Attention that only retrieves information from a logarithmic O(log(N)) number of tokens for performing inference. TCA organizes the data in a tree structure and performs a tree search at inference time to retrieve the relevant tokens for prediction. Leveraging TCA, we introduce ReTreever, a flexible architecture for token-efficient inference. We show empirically that Tree Cross Attention (TCA) performs comparable to Cross Attention across various classification and uncertainty regression tasks while being significantly more token-efficient. Furthermore, we compare ReTreever against Perceiver IO, showing significant gains while using the same number of tokens for inference.

Recent work has promoted task-aware layer pruning as a way to improve model performance on particular tasks, as shown by TALE. In this paper, we investigate when such improvements occur and why. We show first that, across controlled polynomial regression tasks and large language models, such pruning yields no benefit on in-distribution (ID) data but consistently improves out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracy. We further show empirically that OOD inputs induce layerwise norm and pairwise-distance profiles that deviate from the corresponding ID profiles. This leads to a geometric explanation of task-aware pruning: each task induces a task-adapted geometry, characterized empirically by the representation profiles observed on ID inputs. OOD inputs can introduce a distorted version of the task-adapted geometry. Task-aware pruning identifies layers that create or amplify this distortion; by removing them, it shifts OOD representational norms and pairwise distances toward those observed on the adapted distribution. This realigns OOD inputs with the model's task-adapted geometry and improves performance. We provide causal evidence through controlled distribution shifts and residual-scaling interventions, and demonstrate consistent behavior across model scales.

Multimodal foundation models are prone to hallucination, generating outputs that either contradict the input or are not grounded by factual information. Given the diversity in architectures, training data and instruction tuning techniques, there can be large variations in systems' susceptibility to hallucinations. To assess system hallucination robustness, hallucination ranking approaches have been developed for specific tasks such as image captioning, question answering, summarization, or biography generation. However, these approaches typically compare model outputs to gold-standard references or labels, limiting hallucination benchmarking for new domains. This work proposes "CrossCheckGPT", a reference-free universal hallucination ranking for multimodal foundation models. The core idea of CrossCheckGPT is that the same hallucinated content is unlikely to be generated by different independent systems, hence cross-system consistency can provide meaningful and accurate hallucination assessment scores. CrossCheckGPT can be applied to any model or task, provided that the information consistency between outputs can be measured through an appropriate distance metric. Focusing on multimodal large language models that generate text, we explore two information consistency measures: CrossCheck-explicit and CrossCheck-implicit. We showcase the applicability of our method for hallucination ranking across various modalities, namely the text, image, and audio-visual domains. Further, we propose the first audio-visual hallucination benchmark, "AVHalluBench", and illustrate the effectiveness of CrossCheckGPT, achieving correlations of 98% and 89% with human judgements on MHaluBench and AVHalluBench, respectively.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

Cross-Video Reasoning (CVR) presents a significant challenge in video understanding, which requires simultaneous understanding of multiple videos to aggregate and compare information across groups of videos. Most existing video understanding benchmarks focus on single-video analysis, failing to assess the ability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to simultaneously reason over various videos. Recent benchmarks evaluate MLLMs' capabilities on multi-view videos that capture different perspectives of the same scene. However, their limited tasks hinder a thorough assessment of MLLMs in diverse real-world CVR scenarios. To this end, we introduce CrossVid, the first benchmark designed to comprehensively evaluate MLLMs' spatial-temporal reasoning ability in cross-video contexts. Firstly, CrossVid encompasses a wide spectrum of hierarchical tasks, comprising four high-level dimensions and ten specific tasks, thereby closely reflecting the complex and varied nature of real-world video understanding. Secondly, CrossVid provides 5,331 videos, along with 9,015 challenging question-answering pairs, spanning single-choice, multiple-choice, and open-ended question formats. Through extensive experiments on various open-source and closed-source MLLMs, we observe that Gemini-2.5-Pro performs best on CrossVid, achieving an average accuracy of 50.4%. Notably, our in-depth case study demonstrates that most current MLLMs struggle with CVR tasks, primarily due to their inability to integrate or compare evidence distributed across multiple videos for reasoning. These insights highlight the potential of CrossVid to guide future advancements in enhancing MLLMs' CVR capabilities.

We present a method that uses a text-to-image model to generate consistent content across multiple image scales, enabling extreme semantic zooms into a scene, e.g., ranging from a wide-angle landscape view of a forest to a macro shot of an insect sitting on one of the tree branches. We achieve this through a joint multi-scale diffusion sampling approach that encourages consistency across different scales while preserving the integrity of each individual sampling process. Since each generated scale is guided by a different text prompt, our method enables deeper levels of zoom than traditional super-resolution methods that may struggle to create new contextual structure at vastly different scales. We compare our method qualitatively with alternative techniques in image super-resolution and outpainting, and show that our method is most effective at generating consistent multi-scale content.

Humans can effortlessly reason about scenes across different viewpoints, yet it remains unclear whether Vision-Language Models (VLMs) possess similar cross-view spatial abilities. Satellite-street scene pairs, with their complex contexts and extreme viewpoint variations, provide an ideal testbed. Motivated by this, we introduce CVSBench, a large-scale benchmark for evaluating cross-view spatial reasoning through satellite-street pairs. This benchmark supports multiple tasks, including cross-view VQA, cross-view grounding, and viewpoint identification. CVSBench comprises 3,297 cross-view image groups with 9,468 object-level annotations and 40,679 question-answer (QA) pairs, enabling systematic and controlled evaluation of cross-view spatial reasoning. Extensive evaluations reveal that advanced VLMs struggle to maintain object-level and layout consistency under drastic viewpoint changes. To bridge this gap towards human-like spatial cognition, we investigate two categories of approaches: spatially grounded reasoning and the incorporation of cognitive map inputs. Our findings demonstrate that language-only reasoning yields marginal improvements, while incorporating visual spatial imagination via a 3D scene imagination pipeline substantially improves cross-view reasoning. These results highlight the necessity of explicit visual-spatial representations for robust spatial cognition in VLMs. Our data and code are released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/zlyzlyzly/CVSBench.

Scaling laws have shaped recent advances in machine learning by enabling predictable scaling of model performance based on model size, computation, and data volume. Concurrently, the rise in computational cost for AI has motivated model compression techniques, notably quantization and sparsification, which have emerged to mitigate the steep computational demands associated with large-scale training and inference. This paper investigates the interplay between scaling laws and compression formats, exploring whether a unified scaling framework can accurately predict model performance when training occurs over various compressed representations, such as sparse, scalar-quantized, sparse-quantized or even vector-quantized formats. Our key contributions include validating a general scaling law formulation and showing that it is applicable both individually but also composably across compression types. Based on this, our main finding is demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that there exists a simple "capacity" metric -- based on the representation's ability to fit random Gaussian data -- which can robustly predict parameter efficiency across multiple compressed representations. On the practical side, we extend our formulation to directly compare the accuracy potential of different compressed formats, and to derive better algorithms for training over sparse-quantized formats.

Weakly supervised person search aims to jointly detect and match persons with only bounding box annotations. Existing approaches typically focus on improving the features by exploring relations of persons. However, scale variation problem is a more severe obstacle and under-studied that a person often owns images with different scales (resolutions). On the one hand, small-scale images contain less information of a person, thus affecting the accuracy of the generated pseudo labels. On the other hand, the similarity of cross-scale images is often smaller than that of images with the same scale for a person, which will increase the difficulty of matching. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing a novel one-step framework, named Self-similarity driven Scale-invariant Learning (SSL). Scale invariance can be explored based on the self-similarity prior that it shows the same statistical properties of an image at different scales. To this end, we introduce a Multi-scale Exemplar Branch to guide the network in concentrating on the foreground and learning scale-invariant features by hard exemplars mining. To enhance the discriminative power of the features in an unsupervised manner, we introduce a dynamic multi-label prediction which progressively seeks true labels for training. It is adaptable to different types of unlabeled data and serves as a compensation for clustering based strategy. Experiments on PRW and CUHK-SYSU databases demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

The advancement of remote sensing technology has improved the spatial resolution of satellite imagery, facilitating more detailed visual representations for diverse interpretations. However, existing methods exhibit limited generalization capabilities across varied applications. While some contemporary foundation models demonstrate potential, they are hindered by insufficient cross-task adaptability and primarily process low-resolution imagery of restricted sizes, thus failing to fully exploit high-resolution data or leverage comprehensive large-scene semantics. Crucially, remote sensing imagery differs fundamentally from natural images, as key foreground targets (eg., maritime objects, artificial structures) often occupy minimal spatial proportions (~1%) and exhibit sparse distributions. Efficiently modeling cross-task generalizable knowledge from lengthy 2D tokens (~100,000) poses a significant challenge yet remains critical for remote sensing image understanding. Motivated by the selective attention mechanisms inherent to the human visual system, we propose DynamicVis, a dynamic visual perception foundation model for remote sensing imagery. The framework integrates a novel dynamic region perception backbone based on the selective state space model, which strategically balances localized detail extraction with global contextual integration, enabling computationally efficient encoding of large-scale data while maintaining architectural scalability. To enhance cross-task knowledge transferring, we introduce a multi-instance learning paradigm utilizing meta-embedding representations, trained on million-scale region-level annotations. Evaluations across nine downstream tasks demonstrate the model's versatility. DynamicVis achieves multi-level feature modeling with exceptional efficiency, processing (2048x2048) pixels with 97 ms latency (6% of ViT's) and 833 MB GPU memory (3% of ViT's).

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we demonstrate that, similar to language modeling, model performance improves as a power-law function of the total compute budget, and we observe a strong correlation between model training loss and model evaluation metrics. Most interestingly, closed-loop metrics also improve with scaling, which has important implications for the suitability of open-loop metrics for model development and hill climbing. We also study the optimal scaling of the number of transformer parameters and the training data size for a training compute-optimal model. We find that as the training compute budget grows, optimal scaling requires increasing the model size 1.5x as fast as the dataset size. We also study inference-time compute scaling, where we observe that sampling and clustering the output of smaller models makes them competitive with larger models, up to a crossover point beyond which a larger models becomes more inference-compute efficient. Overall, our experimental results demonstrate that optimizing the training and inference-time scaling properties of motion forecasting and planning models is a key lever for improving their performance to address a wide variety of driving scenarios. Finally, we briefly study the utility of training on general logged driving data of other agents to improve the performance of the ego-agent, an important research area to address the scarcity of robotics data for large capacity models training.

Multi-task learning (MTL) has shown considerable practical benefits, particularly when using pre-trained language models (PLMs). While this is commonly achieved by simultaneously learning n tasks under a joint optimization procedure, recent methods such as AdapterFusion structure the problem into two distinct stages: (i) task learning, where knowledge specific to a task is encapsulated within sets of parameters (\eg adapters), and (ii) transfer, where this already learned knowledge is leveraged for a target task. This separation of concerns provides numerous benefits, such as promoting reusability, and addressing cases involving data privacy and societal concerns; on the flip side, current two-stage MTL methods come with the cost of introducing a substantial number of additional parameters. In this work, we address this issue by leveraging the usefulness of linearly scaling the output representations of source adapters for transfer learning. We introduce ScaLearn, a simple and highly parameter-efficient two-stage MTL method that capitalizes on the knowledge of the source tasks by learning a minimal set of scaling parameters that enable effective knowledge transfer to a target task. Our experiments on three benchmarks (GLUE, SuperGLUE, and HumSet) show that our ScaLearn, in addition to facilitating the benefits of two-stage MTL, consistently outperforms strong baselines with only a small number of transfer parameters - roughly 0.35% of those of AdapterFusion. Remarkably, we observe that ScaLearn maintains its strong abilities even when further reducing parameters through uniform scaling and layer-sharing, achieving similarly competitive results with only 8 transfer parameters for each target task. Our proposed approach thus demonstrates the power of simple scaling as a promise for more efficient task transfer.

Scaling the number of parameters and the size of training data has proven to be an effective strategy for improving large language model (LLM) performance. Yet, as these models grow increasingly powerful and widely deployed, the cost of inference has become a pressing concern. Despite its importance, the trade-off between model accuracy and inference efficiency remains underexplored. In this work, we examine how key architectural factors, hidden size, the allocation of parameters between MLP and attention (mlp-to-attention ratio), and grouped-query attention (GQA), influence both inference cost and accuracy. We introduce a conditional scaling law that augments the Chinchilla framework with architectural information, along with a search framework for identifying architectures that are simultaneously inference-efficient and accurate. To validate our approach, we train more than 200 models spanning 80M to 3B parameters and 8B to 100B training tokens, and fit the proposed conditional scaling law. Our results show that the conditional scaling law reliably predicts optimal architectural choices and that the resulting models outperform existing open-source baselines. Under the same training budget, optimized architectures achieve up to 2.1% higher accuracy and 42% greater inference throughput compared to LLaMA-3.2.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal (cross-time) and variate (cross-variate) dependencies. While Transformer-based models have gained popularity for their flexibility in capturing both sequential and cross-variate relationships, it is unclear how to best integrate these two sources of information in the context of the Transformer architecture while optimizing for both performance and efficiency. We re-purpose the Transformer architecture to effectively model both cross-time and cross-variate dependencies. Our approach begins by embedding each variate independently into a variate-wise representation that captures its cross-time dynamics, and then models cross-variate dependencies through attention mechanisms on these learned embeddings. Gating operations in both cross-time and cross-variate modeling phases regulate information flow, allowing the model to focus on the most relevant features for accurate predictions. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 13 real-world datasets and can be seamlessly integrated into other Transformer-based and LLM-based forecasters, delivering performance improvements up to 20.7\% over original models. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/nyuolab/Gateformer.

Most Reading Comprehension methods limit themselves to queries which can be answered using a single sentence, paragraph, or document. Enabling models to combine disjoint pieces of textual evidence would extend the scope of machine comprehension methods, but currently there exist no resources to train and test this capability. We propose a novel task to encourage the development of models for text understanding across multiple documents and to investigate the limits of existing methods. In our task, a model learns to seek and combine evidence - effectively performing multi-hop (alias multi-step) inference. We devise a methodology to produce datasets for this task, given a collection of query-answer pairs and thematically linked documents. Two datasets from different domains are induced, and we identify potential pitfalls and devise circumvention strategies. We evaluate two previously proposed competitive models and find that one can integrate information across documents. However, both models struggle to select relevant information, as providing documents guaranteed to be relevant greatly improves their performance. While the models outperform several strong baselines, their best accuracy reaches 42.9% compared to human performance at 74.0% - leaving ample room for improvement.

Parallel LLM inference scaling involves sampling a set of N>1 responses for a single input prompt. However, these N parallel responses tend to be generated independently from each other, partitioning compute resources and leaving potentially useful information in one generation untapped by others. This is in contrast to response length scaling where past computation is used in all future steps. For higher quality responses and response sets, we propose Bridge to generate interdependent responses in parallel by rethinking batched LLM hidden states as holistic tensors rather than independent slices. With only a small amount (2.8%-5.1%) of new parameters, Bridge improves the relative mean accuracy gains from reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards by up to 50% and boosts consistency of correct responses. Trained once, Bridge scales to any generation width, all with greater performance than independent generations, unlocking a more general mode of parallel scaling that effectively leverages information between sequences, compatible with any post-generation aggregation technique.

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity. It combines conformal prediction with classical quantile regression, inheriting the advantages of both. We establish a theoretical guarantee of valid coverage, supplemented by extensive experiments on popular regression datasets. We compare the efficiency of conformalized quantile regression to other conformal methods, showing that our method tends to produce shorter intervals.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

This work investigates the optimal allocation of inference compute across three key scaling factors in video vision language models: language model size, frame count, and the number of visual tokens per frame. While prior works typically focuses on optimizing model efficiency or improving performance without considering resource constraints, we instead identify optimal model configuration under fixed inference compute budgets. We conduct large-scale training sweeps and careful parametric modeling of task performance to identify the inference compute-optimal frontier. Our experiments reveal how task performance depends on scaling factors and finetuning data size, as well as how changes in data size shift the compute-optimal frontier. These findings translate to practical tips for selecting these scaling factors.

Human cognition does not separate understanding and generation. A teacher at a whiteboard speaks and draws together, each modality reshapes the other. In this paper, we bring this coupled loop to artificial systems. Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) are ideally suited to this task, yet existing samplers either decode text and image interleavedly or independently update them in parallel branches that share only previous-step history, but not the other modality's latest decisions within the same step; combined with MDMs' inability to remask, cross-modal contradictions are neither detected nor repaired. We introduce Self-Correcting Coupled Markov Jump Processes (SC-CMJP), a framework in which one modality's transition rates are functionals of the other modality's confidence score, as weighted by cross-modal attention. Furthermore, a remasking jump retracts commitments the moment cross-modal evidence turns against them. In conjunction with SC-CMJP, we introduce CO_2Jump (Self-text{CO}rrecting text{CO}upled text{Jump}), a novel training-free single-pass sampler for joint multimodal geneneration. For training and evaluation purposes, we have created and will release three large-scale joint multimodal generation corpora: JEdit-1M, JMaze-200K, JNono-200K, with matching in- and out-of-distribution benchmarks. CO_2Jump achieves best joint performance for image understanding and editing as well as visual reasoning (maze and nonogram solving). The performance of the sampler scales monotonically with the number of denoising steps, evidence that the benefits of cross-modal coupling compound across the trajectory. Project page: https://coupled-jump.github.io

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have exhibited the capacity of enhancing reasoning performance via internal test-time scaling. Building upon this, a promising direction is to further scale test-time compute to unlock even greater reasoning capabilities. However, as we push these scaling boundaries, systematically understanding the practical limits and achieving optimal resource allocation becomes a critical challenge. In this paper, we investigate the scaling Pareto of test-time scaling and introduce the Test-Time Scaling Performance Model (TTSPM). We theoretically analyze two fundamental paradigms for such extended scaling, parallel scaling and sequential scaling, from a probabilistic modeling perspective. Our primary contribution is the derivation of the saturation point on the scaling budget for both strategies, identifying thresholds beyond which additional computation yields diminishing returns. Remarkably, despite their distinct mechanisms, both paradigms converge to a unified mathematical structure in their upper bounds. We empirically validate our theoretical findings on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA, demonstrating the practical utility of these bounds for test-time resource allocation. We hope that this work provides insights into the cost-benefit trade-offs of test-time scaling, guiding the development of more resource-efficient inference strategies for large reasoning models.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have emerged as a promising paradigm for general-purpose robotic control, with test-time scaling (TTS) gaining attention to enhance robustness beyond training. However, existing TTS methods for VLAs require additional training, verifiers, and multiple forward passes, making them impractical for deployment. Moreover, they intervene only at action decoding while keeping visual representations fixed-insufficient under perceptual ambiguity, where reconsidering how to perceive is as important as deciding what to do. To address these limitations, we propose SCALE, a simple inference strategy that jointly modulates visual perception and action based on 'self-uncertainty', inspired by uncertainty-driven exploration in Active Inference theory-requiring no additional training, no verifier, and only a single forward pass. SCALE broadens exploration in both perception and action under high uncertainty, while focusing on exploitation when confident-enabling adaptive execution across varying conditions. Experiments on simulated and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that SCALE improves state-of-the-art VLAs and outperforms existing TTS methods while maintaining single-pass efficiency.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model merging measured by cross-entropy. Despite its wide practical use, merging lacks a quantitative rule that predicts returns as we add experts or scale the model size. We identify a compact power law that links model size and expert number: the size-dependent floor decreases with model capacity, while the merging tail exhibits clear diminishing returns in the number of experts. The law holds in-domain and cross-domain, tightly fits measured curves across diverse architectures and methods (Average, TA, TIES, DARE), and explains two robust regularities: most gains arrive early, and variability shrinks as more experts are included. Building on this, we present a simple theory that explains why gains fall roughly as 1/k and links the floor and tail to properties of the base model and the diversity across domains. This law enables predictive planning: estimate how many experts are needed to reach a target loss, decide when to stop adding experts, and trade off scaling the base model versus adding experts under a fixed budget--turning merging from heuristic practice into a computationally efficient, planable alternative to multitask training. This suggests a scaling principle for distributed generative AI: predictable gains can be achieved by composing specialists, offering a complementary path toward AGI-level systems.

Quantization has emerged as a standard technique for accelerating inference for generative models by enabling faster low-precision computations and reduced memory transfers. Recently, GPU accelerators have added first-class support for microscaling Block Floating Point (BFP) formats. Standard BFP algorithms use a fixed scale based on the maximum magnitude of the block. We observe that this scale choice can be suboptimal with respect to quantization errors. In this work, we propose ScaleSearch, an alternative strategy for selecting these scale factors: using a fine-grained search leveraging the mantissa bits in microscaling formats to minimize the quantization error for the given distribution. ScaleSearch can be integrated with existing quantization methods such as Post Training Quantization and low-precision attention, and is shown to improve their performance. Additionally, we introduce ScaleSearchAttention, an accelerated NVFP4-based attention algorithm, which uses ScaleSearch and adapted prior techniques to ensure near-0 performance loss for causal language modeling. Experiments show that ScaleSearch reduces quantization error by 27% for NVFP4 and improves language model PTQ by up to 15 points for MATH500 (Qwen3-8B), while ScaleSearchAttention improves Wikitext-2 PPL by upto 0.77 points for Llama 3.1 70B. The proposed methods closely match baseline performance while providing quantization accuracy improvements.

In this work, we explore an untapped signal in diffusion model inference. While all previous methods generate images independently at inference, we instead ask if samples can be generated collaboratively. We propose Group Diffusion, unlocking the attention mechanism to be shared across images, rather than limited to just the patches within an image. This enables images to be jointly denoised at inference time, learning both intra and inter-image correspondence. We observe a clear scaling effect - larger group sizes yield stronger cross-sample attention and better generation quality. Furthermore, we introduce a qualitative measure to capture this behavior and show that its strength closely correlates with FID. Built on standard diffusion transformers, our GroupDiff achieves up to 32.2% FID improvement on ImageNet-256x256. Our work reveals cross-sample inference as an effective, previously unexplored mechanism for generative modeling.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

Large language models fine-tuned on human behavioural data have emerged as general-purpose cognitive proxies, but the scale this requires, and whether these models process task structure or exploit statistical shortcuts, remain open questions. We train fourteen models from 135M to 14B parameters across four architecture families on Psych-101, a dataset of 10.7 million trial-level choices from 160 experiments. For in-distribution simulations, scale barely matters. The models fall within a narrow band, as though against a ceiling, and 0.6B to 1B parameters suffice to match a 70B baseline on held-out participants. Out-of-distribution, that band opens into a markedly steeper scaling gradient, with larger models clearly advantaged in generalisation to novel task structure. To determine what information these models use, we run two diagnostics. We progressively strip four prompt channels -- task instructions, experimental stimuli, outcome feedback, and choice history -- across 27 experiments, and permute trial order. Masking the content of stimuli and feedback destroys 75.7% of learned information and pushes models below chance, demonstrating that choice history alone does not account for performance. Permutation reveals invariance on tasks with independent trials but sensitivity where trial order is determined by prior responses. Small cognitively fine-tuned models therefore show promise as noise ceiling estimators for psychological experiments, though their scope remains bounded by the paradigms seen in training.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enhancing mathematical reasoning in large language models (LLMs) by allocating additional computational resources during inference. However, current methods employ uniform resource distribution across all reasoning sub-problems, creating fundamental bottlenecks where challenging sub-problems receive insufficient attention while routine operations consume disproportionate resources. This uniform allocation creates performance bottlenecks where additional computational resources yield diminishing returns. Inspired by dual-process theory, we propose SCALE (Selective Resource Allocation), a framework that selectively allocates computational resources based on sub-problem difficulty. SCALE operates through four stages: (1) problem decomposition into sequential reasoning sub-problems, (2) difficulty assessment of each sub-problem to distinguish between routine operations and computationally challenging sub-problems, (3) selective processing mode assignment between System 1 for simple sub-problems and System 2 for complex ones, and (4) sequential execution with context propagation. By concentrating resources on challenging sub-problems while processing routine operations efficiently, SCALE achieves substantial performance improvements with superior resource utilization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SCALE significantly outperforms uniform scaling baselines, achieving accuracy improvements of up to 13.75 percentage points (57.50% to 71.25% on AIME25) while reducing computational costs by 33%-53%, representing a major advance in test-time scaling that addresses fundamental limitations of current approaches.