Daily Papers

Streaming video understanding requires models to repeatedly decide whether to respond or continue observing. Recently, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has been applied to this setting, with existing approaches emphasizing reward design while retaining a single trajectory-level advantage across turns. Such shared credit can reinforce redundant replies after earlier successes and discourage useful follow-ups after earlier failures. We propose TurnWise, a turn-level GRPO framework that aligns learning with individual streaming decisions. TurnWise addresses the mismatch between trajectory-level feedback and turn-level interaction, promoting informative responses and reducing redundancy. Specifically, turn-level credit assignment uses silence-completed prefix scoring to construct group-relative advantages from each decision's remaining return, separating its learning signal from earlier rewards. Turn-mean policy optimization averages token losses within each turn and then across turns, giving response and waiting decisions equal weight regardless of output length. These complementary designs improve streaming policy learning without a learned critic or additional rollouts. Extensive experiments show our method outperforms prior RL approaches for streaming video understanding.

Universal visual anomaly detection (AD) aims to identify anomaly images and segment anomaly regions towards open and dynamic scenarios, following zero- and few-shot paradigms without any dataset-specific fine-tuning. We have witnessed significant progress in widely use of visual-language foundational models in recent approaches. However, current methods often struggle with complex prompt engineering, elaborate adaptation modules, and challenging training strategies, ultimately limiting their flexibility and generality. To address these issues, this paper rethinks the fundamental mechanism behind visual-language models for AD and presents an embarrassingly simple, general, and effective framework for Universal vision Anomaly Detection (UniADet). Specifically, we first find language encoder is used to derive decision weights for anomaly classification and segmentation, and then demonstrate that it is unnecessary for universal AD. Second, we propose an embarrassingly simple method to completely decouple classification and segmentation, and decouple cross-level features, i.e., learning independent weights for different tasks and hierarchical features. UniADet is highly simple (learning only decoupled weights), parameter-efficient (only 0.002M learnable parameters), general (adapting a variety of foundation models), and effective (surpassing state-of-the-art zero-/few-shot by a large margin and even full-shot AD methods for the first time) on 14 real-world AD benchmarks covering both industrial and medical domains. We will make the code and model of UniADet available at https://github.com/gaobb/UniADet.

Phishing email detection faces critical challenges from evolving adversarial tactics and heterogeneous attack patterns. Traditional detection methods, such as rule-based filters and denylists, often struggle to keep pace with these evolving tactics, leading to false negatives and compromised security. While machine learning approaches have improved detection accuracy, they still face challenges adapting to novel phishing strategies. We present MultiPhishGuard, a dynamic LLM-based multi-agent detection system that synergizes specialized expertise with adversarial-aware reinforcement learning. Our framework employs five cooperative agents (text, URL, metadata, explanation simplifier, and adversarial agents) with automatically adjusted decision weights powered by a Proximal Policy Optimization reinforcement learning algorithm. To address emerging threats, we introduce an adversarial training loop featuring an adversarial agent that generates subtle context-aware email variants, creating a self-improving defense ecosystem and enhancing system robustness. Experimental evaluations on public datasets demonstrate that MultiPhishGuard significantly outperforms Chain-of-Thoughts, single-agent baselines and state-of-the-art detectors, as validated by ablation studies and comparative analyses. Experiments demonstrate that MultiPhishGuard achieves high accuracy (97.89\%) with low false positive (2.73\%) and false negative rates (0.20\%). Additionally, we incorporate an explanation simplifier agent, which provides users with clear and easily understandable explanations for why an email is classified as phishing or legitimate. This work advances phishing defense through dynamic multi-agent collaboration and generative adversarial resilience.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

LLM pruning has emerged as a promising technology for compressing LLMs, enabling their deployment on resource-limited devices. However, current methodologies typically require access to public calibration samples, which can be challenging to obtain in privacy-sensitive domains. To address this issue, we introduce FedPrLLM, a comprehensive federated pruning framework designed for the privacy-preserving compression of LLMs. In FedPrLLM, each client only needs to calculate a pruning mask matrix based on its local calibration data and share it with the server to prune the global model. This approach allows for collaborative pruning of the global model with the knowledge of each client while maintaining local data privacy. Additionally, we conduct extensive experiments to explore various possibilities within the FedPrLLM framework, including different comparison groups, pruning strategies, and the decision to scale weights. Our extensive evaluation reveals that one-shot pruning with layer comparison and no weight scaling is the optimal choice within the FedPrLLM framework. We hope our work will help guide future efforts in pruning LLMs in privacy-sensitive fields. Our code is available at https://github.com/Pengxin-Guo/FedPrLLM.

Approaches to continual learning aim to successfully learn a set of related tasks that arrive in an online manner. Recently, several frameworks have been developed which enable deep learning to be deployed in this learning scenario. A key modelling decision is to what extent the architecture should be shared across tasks. On the one hand, separately modelling each task avoids catastrophic forgetting but it does not support transfer learning and leads to large models. On the other hand, rigidly specifying a shared component and a task-specific part enables task transfer and limits the model size, but it is vulnerable to catastrophic forgetting and restricts the form of task-transfer that can occur. Ideally, the network should adaptively identify which parts of the network to share in a data driven way. Here we introduce such an approach called Continual Learning with Adaptive Weights (CLAW), which is based on probabilistic modelling and variational inference. Experiments show that CLAW achieves state-of-the-art performance on six benchmarks in terms of overall continual learning performance, as measured by classification accuracy, and in terms of addressing catastrophic forgetting.

ufakzeka-karar is an open Turkish decision model with 182,494,466 parameters. Given a Turkish text and questions of a fixed answer type (a choice, a level on an ordered scale, or yes or no), it returns a temperature-scaled probability for every option and an expected error that serves as a "not sure" signal, without generating text and in one CPU forward pass for up to ten options. Built on the lab's ufakzeka-1-base, its head scores each option blind to the others at shared positions, so the answer does not depend on option order. A sequential head trained with shuffled options was about as accurate but changed 2.3 to 2.8 percent of its answers when only the option order changed; REINFORCE lost 10.2 points (0.102) of macro F1 to cross-entropy. On the open set of HakemBench v1.0 (4,275 questions, 7 tracks) the released model ranks 7th of 16 rows with a composite of 0.660 (95% interval 0.642 to 0.677). Temperature scaling lowers calibration error (smooth ECE) on the development set but raises it on held-out support questions, from 0.027 to 0.045 for the first scored run, which never trained on them; the released model later trained on them, so its 0.036 to 0.064 is not an unseen-question test. The released model is the last of three runs scored on HakemBench, and its numbers are not blind. The second run's new training data was aimed at the first run's errors on the full test set in guardrails, moderation and customer support, and the released run was trained after the second run's guardrail results on the full test set were read, under a protocol fixed in writing before any of its data, code or runs. All its numbers come after these readings; its guardrail, moderation and customer support numbers carry the flag "shaped by reading the test results". With every model scored on the other four tracks only, its composite is 0.678, 6th of 16. Weights and code are under Apache-2.0.

Aesthetic image cropping improves composition by balancing subjects, context, and image boundaries. Large vision-language models bring semantic knowledge to this task, but their scale limits lightweight photography assistance. We propose FrameLite, a compact cropping model built on Qwen3.5-0.8B. Our approach is motivated by the observation that a small model can generate better crops than its first answer suggests. We develop three-stage training to turn this potential into stronger direct predictions. Spatial and composition training establishes localization and framing preferences. Quality-Guided Online Supervision (QOS) then learns the highest-quality complete answers among the current policy's generated candidates. Greedy-Referenced Optimization (GRO) further refines the policy using positive and negative quality differences relative to its current greedy answer. Both online stages use annotation-derived feedback, while inference returns one coordinate answer without search or an external scorer. Experiments show that FrameLite outperforms the compared large-VLM croppers across public benchmarks with a substantially smaller backbone. Controlled studies confirm that selecting high-quality training answers improves the final model beyond online sampling alone. We will release our code and model weights at https://github.com/JianzeLi-114/FrameLite .

In this study, we propose a multicriteria group decision making (MCGDM) algorithm under uncertainty where data is collected as intervals. The proposed MCGDM algorithm aggregates the data, determines the optimal weights for criteria and ranks alternatives with no further input. The intervals give flexibility to experts in assessing alternatives against criteria and provide an opportunity to gain maximum information. We also propose a novel method to aggregate expert judgements using cloud models. We introduce an experimental approach to check the validity of the aggregation method. After that, we use the aggregation method for an MCGDM problem. Here, we find the optimal weights for each criterion by proposing a bilevel optimisation model. Then, we extend the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for data based on cloud models to prioritise alternatives. As a result, the algorithm can gain information from decision makers with different levels of uncertainty and examine alternatives with no more information from decision-makers. The proposed MCGDM algorithm is implemented on a case study of a cybersecurity problem to illustrate its feasibility and effectiveness. The results verify the robustness and validity of the proposed MCGDM using sensitivity analysis and comparison with other existing algorithms.

We present EARCP (Ensemble Auto-Régulé par Cohérence et Performance), a novel ensemble architecture that dynamically weights heterogeneous expert models based on both their individual performance and inter-model coherence. Unlike traditional ensemble methods that rely on static or offline-learned combinations, EARCP continuously adapts model weights through a principled online learning mechanism that balances exploitation of high-performing models with exploration guided by consensus signals. The architecture combines theoretical foundations from multiplicative weight update algorithms with a novel coherence-based regularization term, providing both theoretical guarantees through regret bounds and practical robustness in non-stationary environments. We formalize the EARCP framework, prove sublinear regret bounds of O(sqrt(T log M)) under standard assumptions, and demonstrate its effectiveness through empirical evaluation on sequential prediction tasks including time series forecasting, activity recognition, and financial prediction. The architecture is designed as a general-purpose framework applicable to any domain requiring ensemble learning with temporal dependencies. An open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/Volgat/earcp and via PyPI (pip install earcp).

Typed decision models are built for settings where model outputs are consumed directly by software. Instead of generating free-form text, they return a decision over a predefined set of options. By construction, every output conforms to the required schema. Yet this guarantee does not tell us whether the model interprets the options as intended. We study Jev and two Jev-like models with open weights by changing how option names are assigned to rubrics. Each option consists of an option name and a textual rubric that defines what the option means. We change only which option name is assigned to each rubric; the question, state, rubric wording, and set of option names remain exactly the same. On 1200 workflow decisions with task-specific rubrics, renaming the two options from 0/1 to no/yes changes 70.4 more answers per hundred (95% CI: [67.6, 73.1]) and shifts AUC from .94 to .23, revealing a systematic reversal in the decision ranking rather than simple uncertainty. The same operation has little effect with neutral option names. This pattern holds across all 4 predicates, where the effect is at least 7.4x larger than under the neutral control, and becomes stronger as the number of options increases. The effect also depends on the read-out geometry: a second model family that mean-pools over the full option span flips 4.1x less often. The hosted model exhibits the same behavior: the swap changes AUC from .8146 to .5806 and produces 24x as many answer flips as its test-retest floor. In contrast, replacing the option names with random character strings returns all model families to the neutral-control regime without reducing accuracy. The failure therefore depends on the semantic polarity of the option names rather than on the renaming operation itself. Across all conditions, the type-error rate remains 0%, even when decision accuracy degrades substantially.

Typed-decision models such as TypeSafe's Jev answer a declared yes/no or multiple-choice question about a state with a probability instead of text, and their evaluations report accuracy and calibration. Neither requires that the probabilities a model gives to logically related questions fit together item by item, which is what a system that acts on those probabilities needs. We test this property, coherence, with a battery of logically linked questions that needs no labels. For 160 items from ChaosNLI and PubMedQA, each with three mutually exclusive labels, we ask whether the label is X, whether it is not X, whether it is one of the other two labels, and which label applies. On 480 negation pairs, Jev's probabilities for "the label is X" and "the label is not X" miss summing to one by 0.064 on average (95% CI 0.055 to 0.072). Qwen3.8-27B, run from its official BF16 weights, misses by 0.293 with first-token probabilities and by 0.122 with verbalized probabilities. The gap to the first-token readout persists on pairs where both systems give similar probabilities, without double-negation labels, and after averaging Jev's repeated calls. Jev is not coherent either: its violations are about five times its repeat noise, and it over-endorses statements about single labels, so that its three single-label probabilities sum to 1.14 on average. The two systems also fail differently. Qwen3.8-27B's first-token readout under-endorses the complement of a label whether or not the question contains "not", rejecting both a statement and its negation in 196 of 480 pairs, and it does not become more coherent where it is more confident, whereas Jev's violations concentrate where its answer is uncertain. Because the checks need no labels, they expose biases that appear only when question forms are compared, and inconsistencies within items.

A typed decision model answers a fixed question about an input by returning a probability for each of several caller-defined options. Each option carries a short label and a written definition, which is where a developer states the rule the model should apply. Jev introduced this interface for routing, moderation and triage, open implementations followed, and the same operation occurs whenever a language model is used as a classifier by scoring label strings. We study the open implementations, whose weights we can inspect and patch, and ask whether the probability follows the definitions or the labels. A preference for the label we call option-label bias. Across four open-weight typed decision models, three ways of reading an answer from a Qwen2.5 backbone, eleven classification tasks and PolicyBench, a synthetic routing suite we introduce in which the rule appears only in the definitions, the answer is mostly the labels. Deleting every definition leaves accuracy unchanged (laya-td: 0.8559 against 0.8487), although those definitions support 0.7971 on their own, and renaming the options to A and B raises accuracy by +0.1511 [+0.1377, +0.1646]. One system, von, is unaffected, and the two code bases differ in one expression: laya writes each option as "{label}: {definition}", while von writes only the definition. Changing that expression in both directions, with no weight changed, makes all three laya checkpoints exactly invariant (+0.0000 [+0.0000, +0.0000]) and creates the effect in von, whose accuracy falls from 0.8511 to 0.2281 when a label contradicts its definition. Earlier work attributed this failure to the constrained decision head these models use in place of a text decoder; our results locate it in the prompt rendering. We give a two-call test that tells a practitioner which case applies to their model, and measure what four mitigations are worth.

Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) is structured to derive policies from static trajectory data without requiring real-time environment interactions. Recent studies have shown the feasibility of framing offline RL as a sequence modeling task, where the sole aim is to predict actions based on prior context using the transformer architecture. However, the limitation of this single task learning approach is its potential to undermine the transformer model's attention mechanism, which should ideally allocate varying attention weights across different tokens in the input context for optimal prediction. To address this, we reformulate offline RL as a multi-objective optimization problem, where the prediction is extended to states and returns. We also highlight a potential flaw in the trajectory representation used for sequence modeling, which could generate inaccuracies when modeling the state and return distributions. This is due to the non-smoothness of the action distribution within the trajectory dictated by the behavioral policy. To mitigate this issue, we introduce action space regions to the trajectory representation. Our experiments on D4RL benchmark locomotion tasks reveal that our propositions allow for more effective utilization of the attention mechanism in the transformer model, resulting in performance that either matches or outperforms current state-of-the art methods.

Agent orchestration frameworks have proliferated, collectively exceeding 290,000 GitHub stars across LangGraph, CrewAI, Google ADK, OpenAI Agents SDK, Semantic Kernel, Strands, and LlamaIndex. All follow the same pattern: an external orchestrator above the LLM, injecting instructions and routing decisions every turn. Recent work has shown this architecture is dominated for procedural tasks by simply providing the procedure in a frontier model's system prompt [Dennis et al., 2026a], at the cost of consuming the context window, requiring a frontier model for every conversation, and exposing proprietary procedures to third-party providers. Compiling the procedure into the weights of a small fine-tuned model -- creating a subterranean agent -- should resolve all of these concerns, and prior work (SimpleTOD, FireAct, SynTOD, WorkflowLLM, Agent Lumos) has shown the technique works. Yet developer adoption has overwhelmingly favored orchestration. We identify three perceived barriers and address each empirically across travel booking (14 nodes), Zoom support (14 nodes, product-specific knowledge), and insurance claims (55 nodes, 6 decision hubs).

Abliteration - deleting a model's refusal direction from its weights - is the standard recipe behind popular "uncensored" open-weight models. We show the surgery is not clean. As a disposition probe we use 21,600 decisions under uncertainty - weekly up/down calls on 60 Warsaw Stock Exchange equities over 18 weeks, replayed through a frozen pipeline so the decision-layer model is the only variable. The task elicits no refusals at all, so any between-arm delta is pure side effect. Holding provenance constant (official BF16 checkpoints, a single abliteration author, an identical serving stack, one byte-identical frozen prompt), we compare base and abliterated arms of two Mixture-of-Experts families, Gemma-4-26B-A4B-it and Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct-2507. Three effects replicate across both families (weeks-clustered bootstrap CIs excluding zero): abliterated models are systematically more optimistic (+12.2 pp Gemma, +7.4 pp Qwen; the confirmed preregistered endpoint), justify themselves at greater length, and use fewer explicit uncertainty words in forced self-critiques (both exploratory). A fourth effect reverses sign: the same operation makes Gemma-abliterated less confident and Qwen-abliterated more (family CIs non-overlapping) - one weight surgery, opposite shifts in expressed confidence. Capability covariates rule out instruction-following degradation as the driver, and no arm shows economic skill: the apparent edge of abliterated arms is regime beta, not alpha. Our provenance audit also caught two independent contamination channels - a mismatched-quantizer pilot pair and a stale community chat template that silently mangled the rendered prompt - suggesting toolchain artifacts are the rule in studies of community-modified checkpoints. Whoever deploys an "uncensored" model as an agent is deploying a measurably different decision-maker, not the base model minus refusals.

Decision models answer typed questions about an input with one probability per option, computed in a single forward pass without generating text. Like the fast System 1 of dual-process theory, they answer at once, but their depth is fixed at training time, so they spend the same computation on easy and hard questions. Models that reason in generated text can think longer, but they pay for every extra step in decoded tokens. We present LEV, a decision model that thinks deeper by rerunning its layers in a loop instead of generating tokens. LEV builds on a language model pretrained as a loop, reads the options after every loop step and trains all steps jointly, so one checkpoint can answer at any depth. On three looped backbones, accuracy rises with depth on the same weights, mostly on hard questions, and a 2.6B LEV goes from 63.2% at depth one to 76.2% at depth four on JevBench. On-demand depth, set per question by a small stopper with a threshold fitted on unlabelled requests, saves 15% to 24% of the computation at a cost of under one accuracy point, level with or slightly above a fixed mix of depths. On a locked test set, the 1.4B and 3B models are 5.4 to 8.8 points more accurate than dense (non-looped) models and cascades of the same latency below 50 ms.

An input guard decides whether a request reaches the model, but never sees what the model says. Harm that emerges during generation, because a jailbreak passed the input layer or a benign request drifted into operational detail, is visible only on the output side and only as tokens arrive. We present HaloGuard 2.0, an open-weight streaming output guard that assigns a safe/unsafe probability to every response token in a single forward pass, so a deployment can stop the stream once harm is confirmed. The guard reuses the constitution of HaloGuard 1.0, our input guard, to organise a 478,532-response training corpus, and supervises each token from the point where the response becomes harmful. We find that a guard trained on conventionally shaped data learns a shortcut specific to streaming: it judges the prompt instead of the response, and handles only 13.9% of matched safe/unsafe response pairs correctly. We correct this with a second phase on 106,043 counterfactual responses built around the base guard's own failure modes, and release the equal-weight average of the base and corrective models. On six English response-safety benchmarks, HaloGuard 2.0-0.8B reaches a macro F1 of 83.6 (83.3 on held-out halves of the decision-rule search), up from 72.8, with 38% fewer false positives. It matches the strongest full-response guards with 5-10x fewer parameters and is 2.6 points above the strongest streaming guard, Qwen3Guard-Stream-4B. A multilingual variant, HaloGuard 2.0-Poly-0.8B, trained on PolyGuardMix, reaches 83.1 F1 on the response labels of PolyGuardPrompts across 17 languages, 5.0 points above the strongest baseline. On one H100 the guard costs 0.37 ms per token per stream when moderating 64 concurrent responses. Both guards are hardened continuously through the weekly red-teaming protocol of HaloGuard 1.0, extended here to the output layer.

Deploying Large Language Models for runtime operational triage incurs prohibitive latency (>100-500 ms), high VRAM requirements (>4-8 GB), and excessive energy dissipation. Extending Mandelbrot Fractal Neural Synthesis (Dagli et al., 2026), this paper presents the Universal Fractal Natural Language Decision Map, realized via the werr machine-native edge reflex runtime and the production answerr platform (https://answerr.me). Operating entirely without stored weight tensors (0 Bytes VRAM), the engine synthesizes deterministic decisions---noul (Boolean), choice (categorical), and score (ordinal)---by dynamically modulating 24-byte coordinate seeds along the chaotic boundary of the Mandelbrot set and evaluating 4-quadrant escape dynamics. Drawing inspiration from biological System-One reflex arcs, the engine introduces: (i) an Auto-Seed Router with domain projector Phi_D yielding a +28.8% accuracy gain over linear baselines; (ii) an Information-Theoretic Acoustic Damping Filter grounded in token entropy and phonetic spectral density that insulates against prompt injections (0.0% empirical bypass; 95% Wilson CI: [0.0%, 30.8%]) while pruning escape iterations by 45.8% (accelerating throughput 2.5x to 3.31 ms latency); and (iii) an Organic Dynamic Calibration framework using O(1) Exponential Moving Average (EMA, alpha=0.03) and quadrant phase rotation to eliminate positional bias. Benchmarked on bare-metal infrastructure (api.answerr.me:4431) across 1,150+ verified decisions (3,200+ questions) and ranked World #1 on the independent JevBench suite (81.65%), the framework achieves 92.6% macro-accuracy (95% CI: [90.8%, 94.1%]) with 7.08 ms median CPU latency. We provide an OpenAI-compatible API (/v1/chat/completions) and demonstrate feasibility on microcontrollers and 32-byte EVM smart contracts.

We introduce DualMind, a generalist agent designed to tackle various decision-making tasks that addresses challenges posed by current methods, such as overfitting behaviors and dependence on task-specific fine-tuning. DualMind uses a novel "Dual-phase" training strategy that emulates how humans learn to act in the world. The model first learns fundamental common knowledge through a self-supervised objective tailored for control tasks and then learns how to make decisions based on different contexts through imitating behaviors conditioned on given prompts. DualMind can handle tasks across domains, scenes, and embodiments using just a single set of model weights and can execute zero-shot prompting without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. We evaluate DualMind on MetaWorld and Habitat through extensive experiments and demonstrate its superior generalizability compared to previous techniques, outperforming other generalist agents by over 50% and 70% on Habitat and MetaWorld, respectively. On the 45 tasks in MetaWorld, DualMind achieves over 30 tasks at a 90% success rate.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

We introduce TWIG (Tree-structured Weights with Inherited Gates), a representation in which every weight of a neural network is the end of a path of small discrete decisions: a sign, a shift by a power of two, a zero gate, an index into a shared table. Weights that belong together share the upper part of their paths, and each decision is inherited by every weight below it, so it is stored once and applied once. This simple change has three consequences. Any trained network can be written as a TWIG, and when the decisions are powers of two its weight layers become circuits made almost entirely of wires and adders, suited to chips whose weights are fixed at fabrication. Pruning, quantization, low-rank factorization, codebooks and weight sharing become edits of one object, so a single optimizer can choose among all of them for a whole network. And choosing the decisions is the ground-state problem of a higher-order Boltzmann machine whose interactions follow the paths of the tree, the problem class that annealers and quantum optimizers are built to solve. Today these questions are handled apart: each compression method brings its own format and solver, a circuit with fixed weights needs a dedicated constant multiplier for every weight, and discrete solvers reach only narrow subproblems such as rounding. Weight formats have long been moving toward shared decisions, through group scales, shared exponents, microexponents and sparse weights; TWIG takes this trend to its end, and every common format is a shallow TWIG at no extra cost. On five weight matrices of a large language model, a flat tree whose signed power-of-two terms are chosen per weight for circuit cost, with no group scales, needs 9--15\% fewer additions than GPTQ at equal layer error at 3- and 4-bit accuracy on typical matrices, and 20--55\% fewer on matrices with strong outliers.

Decision models target structured tasks by directly predicting choices or scores, avoiding autoregressive decoding latency. However, transferring a generative LLM's ranking knowledge to a decision model remains challenging: the teacher expresses preferences through a ranked list of document ID sequences, while the student determines the ranking using scores from the first-token position. To bridge this gap, we introduce DecisionRank, a decision model trained through item-space on-policy distillation (OPD). Item-space OPD constructs the student's rollout by sorting its document scores into a ranked sequence. A generative teacher takes the resulting ranking list as inputs and provides conditional feedback to directly supervise those scores. Combined with offline ranking supervision, DecisionRank achieves state-of-the-art performance on both general and reasoning-intensive retrieval benchmarks such as TREC DL, BEIR, and BRIGHT. Across four benchmarks, item-space OPD consistently outperforms alternative training objectives. Even at 1.7B parameters, DecisionRank surpasses its 27B generative teacher on TREC DL19--23. At 8B, it outperforms its generative listwise counterpart while running 24.5times faster on TREC DL and 16.7times faster on BRIGHT.

Continuous control tasks often involve high-dimensional, dynamic, and non-linear environments. State-of-the-art performance in these tasks is achieved through complex closed-box policies that are effective, but suffer from an inherent opacity. Interpretable policies, while generally underperforming compared to their closed-box counterparts, advantageously facilitate transparent decision-making within automated systems. Hence, their usage is often essential for diagnosing and mitigating errors, supporting ethical and legal accountability, and fostering trust among stakeholders. In this paper, we propose SMOSE, a novel method to train sparsely activated interpretable controllers, based on a top-1 Mixture-of-Experts architecture. SMOSE combines a set of interpretable decisionmakers, trained to be experts in different basic skills, and an interpretable router that assigns tasks among the experts. The training is carried out via state-of-the-art Reinforcement Learning algorithms, exploiting load-balancing techniques to ensure fair expert usage. We then distill decision trees from the weights of the router, significantly improving the ease of interpretation. We evaluate SMOSE on six benchmark environments from MuJoCo: our method outperforms recent interpretable baselines and narrows the gap with noninterpretable state-of-the-art algorithms

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Pretrained world action models (WAMs) provide generalist capabilities across diverse robotic manipulation tasks, yet improving target-task performance to an expert level without degrading pretrained skills remains challenging. We explore on-policy distillation (OPD) for WAMs and introduce WAM-OPD. WAM-OPD inherits the advantage of OPD methods that transfer task-specific teacher knowledge under the student's own induced distribution, rather than directly fitting the student to a narrow task-specific data distribution. However, in closed-loop manipulation, the observation histories change as the student policy evolves, requiring fresh environment rollouts to remain on-policy. Applying OPD to WAMs entails repeated data collection, which is costly even in simulation and often impractical on real robots. To avoid repeated environment rollouts during distillation, we introduce prefix-weighted trajectory replay (PWTR). PWTR uses a fixed trajectory pool composed primarily of initial-student rollouts, supplemented with task-specific teacher rollouts to broaden trajectory coverage. For each trajectory replayed from this pool, PWTR conditions the current policy on successive stored histories to generate fresh denoising paths, along which the task-specific teacher provides supervision. Although these denoising paths are refreshed as the policy evolves, the replayed environment trajectories remain fixed. PWTR therefore reweights per-decision distillation losses using proxy importance weights derived from path scores accumulated over the trajectory prefix preceding each decision to mitigate the resulting shift in the history distribution. Simulated and real-world experiments demonstrate task adaptation without additional environment interaction during distillation. In both settings, WAM-OPD improves target-task performance while retaining near-initial performance on tasks excluded from adaptation.

In this paper, a simple yet effective network pruning framework is proposed to simultaneously address the problems of pruning indicator, pruning ratio, and efficiency constraint. This paper argues that the pruning decision should depend on the convolutional weights, and thus proposes novel weight-dependent gates (W-Gates) to learn the information from filter weights and obtain binary gates to prune or keep the filters automatically. To prune the network under efficiency constraints, a switchable Efficiency Module is constructed to predict the hardware latency or FLOPs of candidate pruned networks. Combined with the proposed Efficiency Module, W-Gates can perform filter pruning in an efficiency-aware manner and achieve a compact network with a better accuracy-efficiency trade-off. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method on ResNet34, ResNet50, and MobileNet V2, respectively achieving up to 1.33/1.28/1.1 higher Top-1 accuracy with lower hardware latency on ImageNet. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, W-Gates also achieves superior performance.

This work presents In-Context Policy Iteration, an algorithm for performing Reinforcement Learning (RL), in-context, using foundation models. While the application of foundation models to RL has received considerable attention, most approaches rely on either (1) the curation of expert demonstrations (either through manual design or task-specific pretraining) or (2) adaptation to the task of interest using gradient methods (either fine-tuning or training of adapter layers). Both of these techniques have drawbacks. Collecting demonstrations is labor-intensive, and algorithms that rely on them do not outperform the experts from which the demonstrations were derived. All gradient techniques are inherently slow, sacrificing the "few-shot" quality that made in-context learning attractive to begin with. In this work, we present an algorithm, ICPI, that learns to perform RL tasks without expert demonstrations or gradients. Instead we present a policy-iteration method in which the prompt content is the entire locus of learning. ICPI iteratively updates the contents of the prompt from which it derives its policy through trial-and-error interaction with an RL environment. In order to eliminate the role of in-weights learning (on which approaches like Decision Transformer rely heavily), we demonstrate our algorithm using Codex, a language model with no prior knowledge of the domains on which we evaluate it.

Not all learnable parameters (e.g., weights) contribute equally to a neural network's decision function. In fact, entire layers' parameters can sometimes be reset to random values with little to no impact on the model's decisions. We revisit earlier studies that examined how architecture and task complexity influence this phenomenon and ask: is this phenomenon also affected by how we train the model? We conducted experimental evaluations on a diverse set of ImageNet-1k classification models to explore this, keeping the architecture and training data constant but varying the training pipeline. Our findings reveal that the training method strongly influences which layers become critical to the decision function for a given task. For example, improved training regimes and self-supervised training increase the importance of early layers while significantly under-utilizing deeper layers. In contrast, methods such as adversarial training display an opposite trend. Our preliminary results extend previous findings, offering a more nuanced understanding of the inner mechanics of neural networks. Code: https://github.com/paulgavrikov/layer_criticality

Class imbalance in binary classification tasks remains a significant challenge in machine learning, often resulting in poor performance on minority classes. This study comprehensively evaluates three widely-used strategies for handling class imbalance: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), Class Weights tuning, and Decision Threshold Calibration. We compare these methods against a baseline scenario of no-intervention across 15 diverse machine learning models and 30 datasets from various domains, conducting a total of 9,000 experiments. Performance was primarily assessed using the F1-score, although our study also tracked results on additional 9 metrics including F2-score, precision, recall, Brier-score, PR-AUC, and AUC. Our results indicate that all three strategies generally outperform the baseline, with Decision Threshold Calibration emerging as the most consistently effective technique. However, we observed substantial variability in the best-performing method across datasets, highlighting the importance of testing multiple approaches for specific problems. This study provides valuable insights for practitioners dealing with imbalanced datasets and emphasizes the need for dataset-specific analysis in evaluating class imbalance handling techniques.

Bayesian neural learning feature a rigorous approach to estimation and uncertainty quantification via the posterior distribution of weights that represent knowledge of the neural network. This not only provides point estimates of optimal set of weights but also the ability to quantify uncertainty in decision making using the posterior distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are typically used to obtain sample-based estimates of the posterior distribution. However, these techniques face challenges in convergence and scalability, particularly in settings with large datasets and network architectures. This paper address these challenges in two ways. First, parallel tempering is used used to explore multiple modes of the posterior distribution and implemented in multi-core computing architecture. Second, we make within-chain sampling schemes more efficient by using Langevin gradient information in forming Metropolis-Hastings proposal distributions. We demonstrate the techniques using time series prediction and pattern classification applications. The results show that the method not only improves the computational time, but provides better prediction or decision making capabilities when compared to related methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly transitioning from static Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks including sentiment analysis and event extraction to acting as dynamic decision-making agents in complex financial environments. However, the evolution of LLMs into autonomous financial agents faces a significant dilemma in evaluation paradigms. Direct live trading is irreproducible and prone to outcome bias by confounding luck with skill, whereas existing static benchmarks are often confined to entity-level stock picking and ignore broader market attention. To facilitate the rigorous analysis of these challenges, we introduce CN-Buzz2Portfolio, a reproducible benchmark grounded in the Chinese market that maps daily trending news to macro and sector asset allocation. Spanning a rolling horizon from 2024 to mid-2025, our dataset simulates a realistic public attention stream, requiring agents to distill investment logic from high-exposure narratives instead of pre-filtered entity news. We propose a Tri-Stage CPA Agent Workflow involving Compression, Perception, and Allocation to evaluate LLMs on broad asset classes such as Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) rather than individual stocks, thereby reducing idiosyncratic volatility. Extensive experiments on nine LLMs reveal significant disparities in how models translate macro-level narratives into portfolio weights. This work provides new insights into the alignment between general reasoning and financial decision-making, and all data, codes, and experiments are released to promote sustainable financial agent research.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Tourism affects not only the tourism industry but also society and stakeholders such as the environment, local businesses, and residents. Tourism Recommender Systems (TRS) can be pivotal in promoting sustainable tourism by guiding travelers toward destinations with minimal negative impact. Our paper introduces a composite sustainability indicator for a city trip TRS based on the users' starting point and month of travel. This indicator integrates CO2e emissions for different transportation modes and analyses destination popularity and seasonal demand. We quantify city popularity based on user reviews, points of interest, and search trends from Tripadvisor and Google Trends data. To calculate a seasonal demand index, we leverage data from TourMIS and Airbnb. We conducted a user study to explore the fundamental trade-offs in travel decision-making and determine the weights for our proposed indicator. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of this indicator into a TRS, illustrating its ability to deliver sustainable city trip recommendations. This work lays the foundation for future research by integrating sustainability measures and contributing to responsible recommendations by TRS.

The weight matrix (WM) of a neural network (NN) is its program. The programs of many traditional NNs are learned through gradient descent in some error function, then remain fixed. The WM of a self-referential NN, however, can keep rapidly modifying all of itself during runtime. In principle, such NNs can meta-learn to learn, and meta-meta-learn to meta-learn to learn, and so on, in the sense of recursive self-improvement. While NN architectures potentially capable of implementing such behaviour have been proposed since the '90s, there have been few if any practical studies. Here we revisit such NNs, building upon recent successes of fast weight programmers and closely related linear Transformers. We propose a scalable self-referential WM (SRWM) that learns to use outer products and the delta update rule to modify itself. We evaluate our SRWM in supervised few-shot learning and in multi-task reinforcement learning with procedurally generated game environments. Our experiments demonstrate both practical applicability and competitive performance of the proposed SRWM. Our code is public.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

We have only limited understanding of how and why large language models (LLMs) respond in the ways that they do. Their neural networks have proven challenging to interpret, and we are only beginning to tease out the function of individual neurons and circuits within them. However, another path to understanding these systems is to investigate and develop their capacity to introspect and explain their own functioning. Here, we show that i) contemporary LLMs are capable of providing accurate, quantitative descriptions of their own internal processes during certain kinds of decision-making, ii) that it is possible to improve these capabilities through training, and iii) that this training generalizes to at least some degree. To do so, we fine-tuned GPT-4o and GPT-4o-mini to make decisions in a wide variety of complex contexts (e.g., choosing between condos, loans, vacations, etc.) according to randomly-generated, quantitative preferences about how to weigh different attributes during decision-making (e.g., the relative importance of natural light versus quiet surroundings for condos). We demonstrate that the LLMs can accurately report these preferences (i.e., the weights that they learned to give to different attributes during decision-making). Next, we demonstrate that these LLMs can be fine-tuned to explain their decision-making even more accurately. Finally, we demonstrate that this training generalizes: It improves the ability of the models to accurately explain what they are doing as they make other complex decisions, not just decisions they have learned to make via fine-tuning. This work is a step towards training LLMs to accurately and broadly report on their own internal processes -- a possibility that would yield substantial benefits for interpretability, control, and safety.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative training across clients without compromising privacy. While most existing FL methods assume homogeneous model architectures, client heterogeneity in data and resources renders this assumption impractical, motivating model-heterogeneous FL. To address this problem, we propose Federated Representation Entanglement (FedRE), a framework built upon a novel form of client knowledge termed entangled representation. In FedRE, each client aggregates its local representations into a single entangled representation using normalized random weights and applies the same weights to integrate the corresponding one-hot label encodings into the entangled-label encoding. Those are then uploaded to the server to train a global classifier. During training, each entangled representation is supervised across categories via its entangled-label encoding, while random weights are resampled each round to introduce diversity, mitigating the global classifier's overconfidence and promoting smoother decision boundaries. Furthermore, each client uploads a single cross-category entangled representation along with its entangled-label encoding, mitigating the risk of representation inversion attacks and reducing communication overhead. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FedRE achieves an effective trade-off among model performance, privacy protection, and communication overhead. The codes are available at https://github.com/AIResearch-Group/FedRE.

The inherent non-stationarity of financial markets and the complexity of multi-modal information pose significant challenges to existing quantitative trading models. Traditional methods relying on fixed structures and unimodal data struggle to adapt to market regime shifts, while large language model (LLM)-driven solutions - despite their multi-modal comprehension - suffer from static strategies and homogeneous expert designs, lacking dynamic adjustment and fine-grained decision mechanisms. To address these limitations, we propose MM-DREX: a Multimodal-driven, Dynamically-Routed EXpert framework based on large language models. MM-DREX explicitly decouples market state perception from strategy execution to enable adaptive sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments. Specifically, it (1) introduces a vision-language model (VLM)-powered dynamic router that jointly analyzes candlestick chart patterns and long-term temporal features to allocate real-time expert weights; (2) designs four heterogeneous trading experts (trend, reversal, breakout, positioning) generating specialized fine-grained sub-strategies; and (3) proposes an SFT-RL hybrid training paradigm to synergistically optimize the router's market classification capability and experts' risk-adjusted decision-making. Extensive experiments on multi-modal datasets spanning stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies demonstrate that MM-DREX significantly outperforms 15 baselines (including state-of-the-art financial LLMs and deep reinforcement learning models) across key metrics: total return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, validating its robustness and generalization. Additionally, an interpretability module traces routing logic and expert behavior in real time, providing an audit trail for strategy transparency.

Weight initialization plays an important role in neural network training. Widely used initialization methods are proposed and evaluated for networks that are trained from scratch. However, the growing number of pretrained models now offers new opportunities for tackling this classical problem of weight initialization. In this work, we introduce weight selection, a method for initializing smaller models by selecting a subset of weights from a pretrained larger model. This enables the transfer of knowledge from pretrained weights to smaller models. Our experiments demonstrate that weight selection can significantly enhance the performance of small models and reduce their training time. Notably, it can also be used together with knowledge distillation. Weight selection offers a new approach to leverage the power of pretrained models in resource-constrained settings, and we hope it can be a useful tool for training small models in the large-model era. Code is available at https://github.com/OscarXZQ/weight-selection.

Natural intelligences (NIs) thrive in a dynamic world - they learn quickly, sometimes with only a few samples. In contrast, artificial intelligences (AIs) typically learn with a prohibitive number of training samples and computational power. What design principle difference between NI and AI could contribute to such a discrepancy? Here, we investigate the role of weight polarity: development processes initialize NIs with advantageous polarity configurations; as NIs grow and learn, synapse magnitudes update, yet polarities are largely kept unchanged. We demonstrate with simulation and image classification tasks that if weight polarities are adequately set a priori, then networks learn with less time and data. We also explicitly illustrate situations in which a priori setting the weight polarities is disadvantageous for networks. Our work illustrates the value of weight polarities from the perspective of statistical and computational efficiency during learning.

Decision-focused learning (DFL) is an emerging paradigm that integrates machine learning (ML) and constrained optimization to enhance decision quality by training ML models in an end-to-end system. This approach shows significant potential to revolutionize combinatorial decision-making in real-world applications that operate under uncertainty, where estimating unknown parameters within decision models is a major challenge. This paper presents a comprehensive review of DFL, providing an in-depth analysis of both gradient-based and gradient-free techniques used to combine ML and constrained optimization. It evaluates the strengths and limitations of these techniques and includes an extensive empirical evaluation of eleven methods across seven problems. The survey also offers insights into recent advancements and future research directions in DFL. Code and benchmark: https://github.com/PredOpt/predopt-benchmarks

While large-scale training data is fundamental for developing capable large language models (LLMs), strategically selecting high-quality data has emerged as a critical approach to enhance training efficiency and reduce computational costs. Current data selection methodologies predominantly rely on static, training-agnostic criteria, failing to account for the dynamic model training and data interactions. In this paper, we propose a new Data Weighting Model (DWM) to adjust the weight of selected data within each batch to achieve a dynamic data utilization during LLM training. Specially, to better capture the dynamic data preference of the trained model, a bi-level optimization framework is implemented to update the weighting model. Our experiments demonstrate that DWM enhances the performance of models trained with randomly-selected data, and the learned weighting model can be transferred to enhance other data selection methods and models of different sizes. Moreover, we further analyze how a model's data preferences evolve throughout training, providing new insights into the data preference of the model during training.

More and more processes governing our lives use in some part an automatic decision step, where -- based on a feature vector derived from an applicant -- an algorithm has the decision power over the final outcome. Here we present a simple idea which gives some of the power back to the applicant by providing her with alternatives which would make the decision algorithm decide differently. It is based on a formalization reminiscent of methods used for evasion attacks, and consists in enumerating the subspaces where the classifiers decides the desired output. This has been implemented for the specific case of decision forests (ensemble methods based on decision trees), mapping the problem to an iterative version of enumerating k-cliques.

In this work, we study how well the learned weights of a neural network utilize the space available to them. This notion is related to capacity, but additionally incorporates the interaction of the network architecture with the dataset. Most learned weights appear to be full rank, and are therefore not amenable to low rank decomposition. This deceptively implies that the weights are utilizing the entire space available to them. We propose a simple data-driven transformation that projects the weights onto the subspace where the data and the weight interact. This preserves the functional mapping of the layer and reveals its low rank structure. In our findings, we conclude that most models utilize a fraction of the available space. For instance, for ViTB-16 and ViTL-16 trained on ImageNet, the mean layer utilization is 35% and 20% respectively. Our transformation results in reducing the parameters to 50% and 25% respectively, while resulting in less than 0.2% accuracy drop after fine-tuning. We also show that self-supervised pre-training drives this utilization up to 70%, justifying its suitability for downstream tasks.

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either predict or choose to defer the decision to a downstream expert. Given only samples of the expert's decisions, we give a procedure based on learning a classifier and a rejector and analyze it theoretically. Our approach is based on a novel reduction to cost sensitive learning where we give a consistent surrogate loss for cost sensitive learning that generalizes the cross entropy loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of experimental tasks.

Decision models support routing, guardrails, and output verification in LLM systems. However, item accuracy alone cannot establish whether models make correct decisions across controlled variations or assign reliable confidence to their predictions. We introduce DecisionPivot, a diagnostic benchmark comprising 48 tasks and 40,033 items across seven decision roles. Its core track contains 7,800 items from 13 generated task families, organized into contrast groups with computed answers verified by independently implemented solvers. The complementary reference track contains 32,233 items from 35 public test sets, preserving their original evaluation metrics. We evaluate 40 decision models and 14 general models using documented, model-specific protocols, assessing item and contrast-group accuracy, probability ordering, calibration, and empirical selective coverage. Our results reveal substantial differences obscured by aggregate scores: two 27B models separated by only 2.6 points on the reference track achieve contrast-group accuracies of 70.1% and 44.2%. Across 2,400 binary contrast pairs, Perplexity Decider correctly ranks the positive member above the negative member in 92.3% of pairs but answers both members correctly in only 74.1%, exposing a gap between probability ordering and decision correctness. Models with similar item accuracy also differ in the reliability of their high-confidence predictions. On a separate 1,296-item subset, GLM-5.3 achieves 93.5\% contrast-group accuracy at a higher reasoning setting, compared with 81.5% at its lowest effort. By linking errors to pivotal details and difficulty levels, DecisionPivot provides fine-grained diagnostics of decision failures that aggregate evaluation alone cannot reveal.

In this paper, we propose LEURN: a neural network architecture that learns univariate decision rules. LEURN is a white-box algorithm that results into univariate trees and makes explainable decisions in every stage. In each layer, LEURN finds a set of univariate rules based on an embedding of the previously checked rules and their corresponding responses. Both rule finding and final decision mechanisms are weighted linear combinations of these embeddings, hence contribution of all rules are clearly formulated and explainable. LEURN can select features, extract feature importance, provide semantic similarity between a pair of samples, be used in a generative manner and can give a confidence score. Thanks to a smoothness parameter, LEURN can also controllably behave like decision trees or vanilla neural networks. Besides these advantages, LEURN achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods across 30 tabular datasets for classification and regression problems.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

We present the design and implementation of a custom discrete optimization technique for building rule lists over a categorical feature space. Our algorithm produces rule lists with optimal training performance, according to the regularized empirical risk, with a certificate of optimality. By leveraging algorithmic bounds, efficient data structures, and computational reuse, we achieve several orders of magnitude speedup in time and a massive reduction of memory consumption. We demonstrate that our approach produces optimal rule lists on practical problems in seconds. Our results indicate that it is possible to construct optimal sparse rule lists that are approximately as accurate as the COMPAS proprietary risk prediction tool on data from Broward County, Florida, but that are completely interpretable. This framework is a novel alternative to CART and other decision tree methods for interpretable modeling.

Regularization is a set of techniques that are used to improve the generalization ability of deep neural networks. In this paper, we introduce weight compander (WC), a novel effective method to improve generalization by reparameterizing each weight in deep neural networks using a nonlinear function. It is a general, intuitive, cheap and easy to implement method, which can be combined with various other regularization techniques. Large weights in deep neural networks are a sign of a more complex network that is overfitted to the training data. Moreover, regularized networks tend to have a greater range of weights around zero with fewer weights centered at zero. We introduce a weight reparameterization function which is applied to each weight and implicitly reduces overfitting by restricting the magnitude of the weights while forcing them away from zero at the same time. This leads to a more democratic decision-making in the network. Firstly, individual weights cannot have too much influence in the prediction process due to the restriction of their magnitude. Secondly, more weights are used in the prediction process, since they are forced away from zero during the training. This promotes the extraction of more features from the input data and increases the level of weight redundancy, which makes the network less sensitive to statistical differences between training and test data. We extend our method to learn the hyperparameters of the introduced weight reparameterization function. This avoids hyperparameter search and gives the network the opportunity to align the weight reparameterization with the training progress. We show experimentally that using weight compander in addition to standard regularization methods improves the performance of neural networks.

Loss functions serve as the foundation of supervised learning and are often chosen prior to model development. To avoid potentially ad hoc choices of losses, statistical decision theory describes a desirable property for losses known as properness, which asserts that Bayes' rule is optimal. Recent works have sought to learn losses and models jointly. Existing methods do this by fitting an inverse canonical link function which monotonically maps R to [0,1] to estimate probabilities for binary problems. In this paper, we extend monotonicity to maps between R^{C-1} and the projected probability simplex Delta^{C-1} by using monotonicity of gradients of convex functions. We present {\sc LegendreTron} as a novel and practical method that jointly learns proper canonical losses and probabilities for multiclass problems. Tested on a benchmark of domains with up to 1,000 classes, our experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms the natural multiclass baseline under a t-test at 99% significance on all datasets with greater than 10 classes.

Language models are increasingly used to create synthetic survey samples, also called silicon samples. Decision models are a new class of language models that return a probability for each point of a rating scale instead of text. We ask whether these models, or the newest generative LLMs, can stand in for human respondents on a psychometric survey. We test fourteen decision models from eleven providers and 47 generative LLMs on an open Lithuanian organisational-psychology survey (n=263, 68 items), with 100 real respondent profiles, the Psychometric Similarity Score (PSS) and statistical baselines. The best generative model, MiniMax M3, reaches PSS 0.813. This is level with a Gaussian copula fit only on other respondents (0.824) and below a copula fit in sample (0.927). A second sample of 100 real people scores below the best models, so at this size PSS cannot rank them against real respondents. In 5 of 10 product lines the newest generative release scores below an earlier release of the same line beyond resampling noise, and none gains beyond it. With the default rounded readout, 13 of 14 decision models score below the generative reference gpt-5.4-mini. Of the 47 generative models, 33 reproduce the pattern of item correlations better than any decision model. Averaged over respondents, the probability vectors are much closer to the human item marginals than rounded answers. They also rank respondents about as well as a profile regression fit on 163 real people. As forecasts of each person's own answers, however, every decision model is worse than the answer frequencies of other respondents, mainly because its average vector differs from them. The profile regression improves on these frequencies by only 1.0%, so the profile fields say little about how a person answers. Synthetic respondents built on such profiles should therefore aim at sample-level fidelity.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capability in numerous tasks and applications. However, fine-tuning LLMs using high-quality datasets under external supervision remains prohibitively expensive. In response, LLM self-improvement approaches have been vibrantly developed recently. The typical paradigm of LLM self-improvement involves training LLM on self-generated data, part of which may be detrimental and should be filtered out due to the unstable data quality. While current works primarily employs filtering strategies based on answer correctness, in this paper, we demonstrate that filtering out correct but with high distribution shift extent (DSE) samples could also benefit the results of self-improvement. Given that the actual sample distribution is usually inaccessible, we propose a new metric called DS weight to approximate DSE, inspired by the Importance Weighting methods. Consequently, we integrate DS weight with self-consistency to comprehensively filter the self-generated samples and fine-tune the language model. Experiments show that with only a tiny valid set (up to 5\% size of the training set) to compute DS weight, our approach can notably promote the reasoning ability of current LLM self-improvement methods. The resulting performance is on par with methods that rely on external supervision from pre-trained reward models.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Decision models read a document and return a probability for each of a fixed set of options instead of generating text. Several appeared in 2026, but none has published results outside English. We describe Zuse, three decision models (4B, 9B and 27B) that train a low-rank adapter and a pointer head on frozen open-weight bases, targeting 27 European languages, and use them to study how this design behaves across languages and tasks. On a broad European suite of 11 sources excluded from training, covering 9 task groups and 27 languages, a development set that also guided model selection, the 27B model reaches 87.5% accuracy with a pooled expected calibration error of 0.016, and 0.035 when weighted per source. Post-hoc analyses of these single-seed results give three findings. First, miscalibration is structured by task rather than language: on parallel reading and topic items in 26 languages the confidence gap varies about as much as sampling noise, while across sources it spans -0.07 to +0.09, with knowledge tasks overconfident and acceptability judgements underconfident at all three sizes, so one fitted temperature cannot correct both. Second, the share of decisions that can be automated at a 5% error budget follows chance-corrected skill (Spearman 0.97 over 33 source and model pairs) more closely than raw accuracy (0.91). Third, reach beyond the training languages is set by the base model: across 210 languages, changing the training run moved scores by at most about 2 points within a size, while languages outside the base's documented list trail by 23 to 28 points at every size. On English public suites Zuse is behind Jev and Kev, including Kev models on the same bases. We also report two pitfalls in building multi-source training data: label-word collision between topic schemes, and an injection augmentation that taught a shortcut. Zuse can be tried at https://bineric.com/zuse.

The mathematical problem-solving capabilities of large language models have become a focal point of research, with growing interests in leveraging self-generated reasoning paths as a promising way to refine and enhance these models. These paths capture step-by-step logical processes while requiring only the correct answer for supervision. The self-training method has been shown to be effective in reasoning tasks while eliminating the need for external models and manual annotations. However, optimizing the use of self-generated data for model training remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose Entropy-Based Adaptive Weighting for Self-Training (EAST), an adaptive weighting strategy designed to prioritize uncertain data during self-training. Specifically, EAST employs a mapping function with a tunable parameter that controls the sharpness of the weighting, assigning higher weights to data where the model exhibits greater uncertainty. This approach guides the model to focus on more informative and challenging examples, thereby enhancing its reasoning ability. We evaluate our approach on GSM8K and MATH benchmarks. Empirical results show that, while the vanilla method yields virtually no improvement (0%) on MATH, EAST achieves around a 1% gain over backbone model. On GSM8K, EAST attains a further 1-2% performance boost compared to the vanilla method.

System One models output calibrated probabilities over typed answers such as categorical choices, ordinal levels, or binary outcomes, via a non-generative interface. Software can act on these probabilities through thresholds, cost-weighted choices, and escalation rules. Consequently, if these probabilities are miscalibrated or wording-sensitive, the software ma take unintended actions leaving human operators with no textual rationale to inspect. Current evaluations largely report accuracy and calibration on public classification datasets without a clear reference. We present TypedBench, a benchmark for typed decision models like Jev built from seven policy-labelled generators and nine evaluation suites. We report accuracy as median and range across paraphrases, and calibration error relative to the finite-sample noise floor of a matched, perfectly calibrated predictor. We assess probability quality through selective prediction, ordinal proper scoring rules, and realised cost under asymmetric cost matrices. We evaluate a hosted model, an open encoder, and a family of open decoders spanning 0.8B-9B parameters on identical items. The hosted model follows the stated policy but is wording-sensitive and systematically underconfident; under asymmetric costs, using its probabilities can be worse than taking its top answer. Decoders route exactly and are slow as options or questions are added. The decoder is least accurate on policy questions and degrades with more options. Overall, typed decision models must be evaluated jointly on policy adherence, wording robustness, probability quality, and induced decision outcomes.

For learning with noisy labels, the transition matrix, which explicitly models the relation between noisy label distribution and clean label distribution, has been utilized to achieve the statistical consistency of either the classifier or the risk. Previous researches have focused more on how to estimate this transition matrix well, rather than how to utilize it. We propose good utilization of the transition matrix is crucial and suggest a new utilization method based on resampling, coined RENT. Specifically, we first demonstrate current utilizations can have potential limitations for implementation. As an extension to Reweighting, we suggest the Dirichlet distribution-based per-sample Weight Sampling (DWS) framework, and compare reweighting and resampling under DWS framework. With the analyses from DWS, we propose RENT, a REsampling method with Noise Transition matrix. Empirically, RENT consistently outperforms existing transition matrix utilization methods, which includes reweighting, on various benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/BaeHeeSun/RENT.

Learning in weight spaces, where neural networks process the weights of other deep neural networks, has emerged as a promising research direction with applications in various fields, from analyzing and editing neural fields and implicit neural representations, to network pruning and quantization. Recent works designed architectures for effective learning in that space, which takes into account its unique, permutation-equivariant, structure. Unfortunately, so far these architectures suffer from severe overfitting and were shown to benefit from large datasets. This poses a significant challenge because generating data for this learning setup is laborious and time-consuming since each data sample is a full set of network weights that has to be trained. In this paper, we address this difficulty by investigating data augmentations for weight spaces, a set of techniques that enable generating new data examples on the fly without having to train additional input weight space elements. We first review several recently proposed data augmentation schemes %that were proposed recently and divide them into categories. We then introduce a novel augmentation scheme based on the Mixup method. We evaluate the performance of these techniques on existing benchmarks as well as new benchmarks we generate, which can be valuable for future studies.

Hierarchical classification offers an approach to incorporate the concept of mistake severity by leveraging a structured, labeled hierarchy. However, decoding in such settings frequently relies on heuristic decision rules, which may not align with task-specific evaluation metrics. In this work, we propose a framework for the optimal decoding of an output probability distribution with respect to a target metric. We derive optimal decision rules for increasingly complex prediction settings, providing universal algorithms when candidates are limited to the set of nodes. In the most general case of predicting a subset of nodes, we focus on rules dedicated to the hierarchical hF_{beta} scores, tailored to hierarchical settings. To demonstrate the practical utility of our approach, we conduct extensive empirical evaluations, showcasing the superiority of our proposed optimal strategies, particularly in underdetermined scenarios. These results highlight the potential of our methods to enhance the performance and reliability of hierarchical classifiers in real-world applications. The code is available at https://github.com/RomanPlaud/hierarchical_decision_rules

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

We introduce StartLux-Decision, decision models from 0.8B to 27B parameters that combine efficient single-pass prediction with adaptive, confidence-guided reasoning. The Instant models use bidirectional attention in full-attention layers to improve decision accuracy while keeping single-pass inference. The AutoThink models invoke explicit reasoning for uncertain decisions and answer confident cases directly. A three-stage training pipeline establishes shared decision capabilities, specializes the two variants, and equips AutoThink with reasoning through reasoning supervision and reinforcement learning. We introduce Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Deliberative Decisions (RLCD^2), which uses a frozen model and proper scoring rules to reward improvements in decision probability quality and applies a soft penalty to overlong reasoning traces. RLCD^2 raises the share of reasoning traces that terminate within the generation limit by up to 48 percentage points and cuts average reasoning length by up to 65%, while largely preserving decision accuracy. On the public subset of Decision Index 0.3, the Instant models outperform the strongest evaluated comparable-scale open-weight decision models by 7.4-16.9 points, and the 27B AutoThink model reaches 73.4. We also introduce DecisionPivot, a programmatically verifiable benchmark of computational decisions built from contrast pairs that differ in a single answer-changing detail. On DecisionPivot, AutoThink outperforms its Instant counterparts by 11.5-18.4 points in pair accuracy and leads among evaluated systems. The models run on vLLM, llama.cpp and MLX, with quantized variants for lower memory use.

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains ignorant to its prediction confidence. Orthogonally to Bayesian neural nets that indirectly infer prediction uncertainty through weight uncertainties, we propose explicit modeling of the same using the theory of subjective logic. By placing a Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural net as subjective opinions and learn the function that collects the evidence leading to these opinions by a deterministic neural net from data. The resultant predictor for a multi-class classification problem is another Dirichlet distribution whose parameters are set by the continuous output of a neural net. We provide a preliminary analysis on how the peculiarities of our new loss function drive improved uncertainty estimation. We observe that our method achieves unprecedented success on detection of out-of-distribution queries and endurance against adversarial perturbations.

The paper introduces the weighted convolution, a novel approach to the convolution for signals defined on regular grids (e.g., 2D images) through the application of an optimal density function to scale the contribution of neighbouring pixels based on their distance from the central pixel. This choice differs from the traditional uniform convolution, which treats all neighbouring pixels equally. Our weighted convolution can be applied to convolutional neural network problems to improve the approximation accuracy. Given a convolutional network, we define a framework to compute the optimal density function through a minimisation model. The framework separates the optimisation of the convolutional kernel weights (using stochastic gradient descent) from the optimisation of the density function (using DIRECT-L). Experimental results on a learning model for an image-to-image task (e.g., image denoising) show that the weighted convolution significantly reduces the loss (up to 53% improvement) and increases the test accuracy compared to standard convolution. While this method increases execution time by 11%, it is robust across several hyperparameters of the learning model. Future work will apply the weighted convolution to real-case 2D and 3D image convolutional learning problems.

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Large language models make decisions through parallel prefill and sequential decoding. Although effective, this approach incurs decoding costs and does not explicitly expose decision probabilities. Existing task-specific classifiers require per-task training and offer limited generalization to unseen decision schemas. We propose Large Decision Models (LDMs), repurposing language models to return explicit probabilities over labels specified at run time using one prefill forward pass. We first adapt models to this interface through Diverse Decision Supervision (DDS), covering varied domains, rules and labels. To further narrow the performance gap to a reasoning model, Self-Posed Reasoning Distillation (SPRD) adds tasks generated by a frozen teacher, filters them for answer consistency, and trains on label distributions obtained from repeated teacher reasoning. We evaluate on DecisionVista, pairing new-schema tests with held-out human-labelled sources. Across three base models, the recipe improves accuracy over a step-matched baseline by 1.8 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, achieving a 182-fold speedup in latency over reasoning rollout on Gemma-4-31B. Reasoning remains stronger on the new-schema test, motivating a confidence router for uncertain decisions. On development sets, routing recovers a median 92% of reasoning's accuracy advantage while generating 27-58% of its tokens. Code is available at https://github.com/JianhuiWei7/LDM.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Finding neural network weights that generalize well from small datasets is difficult. A promising approach is to learn a weight initialization such that a small number of weight changes results in low generalization error. We show that this form of meta-learning can be improved by letting the learning algorithm decide which weights to change, i.e., by learning where to learn. We find that patterned sparsity emerges from this process, with the pattern of sparsity varying on a problem-by-problem basis. This selective sparsity results in better generalization and less interference in a range of few-shot and continual learning problems. Moreover, we find that sparse learning also emerges in a more expressive model where learning rates are meta-learned. Our results shed light on an ongoing debate on whether meta-learning can discover adaptable features and suggest that learning by sparse gradient descent is a powerful inductive bias for meta-learning systems.

Autoregressive approaches with large language models, such as long chain-of-thought reasoning, have become the default for new AI applications because they reach higher accuracy on a wide range of tasks. In production, however, they give inconsistent answers, require parsing of outputs, and add cost and latency. Decision models address this: given a question and a set of options supplied by the user, they return a probability distribution over the options without autoregressive decoding. We present Drex, a family of four open decision models with 8B (DLM), 9B (v1.5), 35B with 3B active (v2.0), and 27B (Max) parameters. Each request consists of a state (a document, record, or agent context, optionally with images) and questions about it, each asking for a choice among options, a yes/no judgment, or a score on an ordered scale. Training combines supervised fine-tuning with reinforcement learning from adjusted feedback (RLAF), plus vision tuning for Max. Ablations show that RLAF improves accuracy and that consistency losses improve robustness to option order. On Decision Index 0.4.1, Max sets a new state of the art among the decision models we compare (67.52 on the public suite vs. 60.70 for Jev 1.14.0). On Decision Bench v4, it is statistically tied with d3-turbo and GPT-6 Sol and trails Claude Opus 5.5 by 1.6 points, and it has the highest accuracy among decision models on DecideBench. Max answers a typical request in 183 ms, against about 2.0 s for GPT-6 Sol and 3.5 s for Claude Opus 5.5, and its outputs are stable under option reordering. All four models are open source: https://github.com/nace-ai/drex-decision-models

Direct-decision models turn text into low-latency structured labels and scores, making them attractive for classification and automatic evaluation. Yet reliability requires more than accuracy: a model must also use the ordinal decision scale supplied by the user faithfully. We analyze JEV~1.13 and three open KEV models. Our investigation begins with ANLI, where JEV assigns 38.8\% of all predictions and 51.3\% of errors to Neutral despite 74.95\% accuracy, nearly balanced gold labels, and balanced candidate positions. Across 36 ordinal datasets, final decisions use only 67--76\% of the effective gold support, versus 87--102\% on four nominal tasks. Randomizing candidate order weakens but does not remove this compression. Holding items and source scores fixed while balancing gold support and positions, we refine scales from K=2 to 14; utilization falls for every model and reaches 26--75\% at K=14, although candidate probabilities remain broad for most models. Targeted BA-LoRA post-training raises gold-relative utilization from roughly 47\% to 86\% on eight supervised scales at both KEV sizes, showing that the compression is learned and modifiable rather than an immutable architectural limit. We call this ordinal scale-utilization bias: decision-stage candidate-space compression distinct from accuracy, gold imbalance, fixed position, and candidate count alone. The code and data are available at https://github.com/Glax147/jev_ordinal_scale_bia

We study the problem of online clustering where a clustering algorithm has to assign a new point that arrives to one of k clusters. The specific formulation we use is the k-means objective: At each time step the algorithm has to maintain a set of k candidate centers and the loss incurred is the squared distance between the new point and the closest center. The goal is to minimize regret with respect to the best solution to the k-means objective (C) in hindsight. We show that provided the data lies in a bounded region, an implementation of the Multiplicative Weights Update Algorithm (MWUA) using a discretized grid achieves a regret bound of O(T) in expectation. We also present an online-to-offline reduction that shows that an efficient no-regret online algorithm (despite being allowed to choose a different set of candidate centres at each round) implies an offline efficient algorithm for the k-means problem. In light of this hardness, we consider the slightly weaker requirement of comparing regret with respect to (1 + ε) C and present a no-regret algorithm with runtime Oleft(T(poly(log(T),k,d,1/ε)^{k(d+O(1))}right). Our algorithm is based on maintaining an incremental coreset and an adaptive variant of the MWUA. We show that naïve online algorithms, such as Follow The Leader, fail to produce sublinear regret in the worst case. We also report preliminary experiments with synthetic and real-world data.

Consider the problem of finding the best matching in a weighted graph where we only have access to predictions of the actual stochastic weights, based on an underlying context. If the predictor is the Bayes optimal one, then computing the best matching based on the predicted weights is optimal. However, in practice, this perfect information scenario is not realistic. Given an imperfect predictor, a suboptimal decision rule may compensate for the induced error and thus outperform the standard optimal rule. In this paper, we propose multicalibration as a way to address this problem. This fairness notion requires a predictor to be unbiased on each element of a family of protected sets of contexts. Given a class of matching algorithms mathcal C and any predictor γ of the edge-weights, we show how to construct a specific multicalibrated predictor hat γ, with the following property. Picking the best matching based on the output of hat γ is competitive with the best decision rule in mathcal C applied onto the original predictor γ. We complement this result by providing sample complexity bounds.

Practitioners who wish to build real-world applications that rely on ranking models, need to decide which modelling paradigm to follow. This is not an easy choice to make, as the research literature on this topic has been shifting in recent years. In particular, whilst Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) have reigned supreme for more than a decade, the flexibility of neural networks has allowed them to catch up, and recent works report accuracy metrics that are on par. Nevertheless, practical systems require considerations beyond mere accuracy metrics to decide on a modelling approach. This work describes our experiences in balancing some of the trade-offs that arise, presenting a case study on a short-video recommendation application. We highlight (1) neural networks' ability to handle large training data size, user- and item-embeddings allows for more accurate models than GBDTs in this setting, and (2) because GBDTs are less reliant on specialised hardware, they can provide an equally accurate model at a lower cost. We believe these findings are of relevance to researchers in both academia and industry, and hope they can inspire practitioners who need to make similar modelling choices in the future.

A major goal of unsupervised learning is to discover data representations that are useful for subsequent tasks, without access to supervised labels during training. Typically, this involves minimizing a surrogate objective, such as the negative log likelihood of a generative model, with the hope that representations useful for subsequent tasks will arise as a side effect. In this work, we propose instead to directly target later desired tasks by meta-learning an unsupervised learning rule which leads to representations useful for those tasks. Specifically, we target semi-supervised classification performance, and we meta-learn an algorithm -- an unsupervised weight update rule -- that produces representations useful for this task. Additionally, we constrain our unsupervised update rule to a be a biologically-motivated, neuron-local function, which enables it to generalize to different neural network architectures, datasets, and data modalities. We show that the meta-learned update rule produces useful features and sometimes outperforms existing unsupervised learning techniques. We further show that the meta-learned unsupervised update rule generalizes to train networks with different widths, depths, and nonlinearities. It also generalizes to train on data with randomly permuted input dimensions and even generalizes from image datasets to a text task.

Recent years have witnessed the great success of graph pre-training for graph representation learning. With hundreds of graph pre-training tasks proposed, integrating knowledge acquired from multiple pre-training tasks has become a popular research topic. In this paper, we identify two important collaborative processes for this topic: (1) select: how to select an optimal task combination from a given task pool based on their compatibility, and (2) weigh: how to weigh the selected tasks based on their importance. While there currently has been a lot of work focused on weighing, comparatively little effort has been devoted to selecting. This paper proposes a novel instance-level framework for integrating multiple graph pre-training tasks, Weigh And Select (WAS), where the two collaborative processes, weighing and selecting, are combined by decoupled siamese networks. Specifically, it first adaptively learns an optimal combination of tasks for each instance from a given task pool, based on which a customized instance-level task weighing strategy is learned. Extensive experiments on 16 graph datasets across node-level and graph-level downstream tasks have demonstrated that by combining a few simple but classical tasks, WAS can achieve comparable performance to other leading counterparts. The code is available at https://github.com/TianyuFan0504/WAS.

While traditional Deep Learning (DL) optimization methods treat all training samples equally, Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) adaptively assigns importance weights to different samples. However, a significant gap exists between DRO and current DL practices. Modern DL optimizers require adaptivity and the ability to handle stochastic gradients, as these methods demonstrate superior performance. Additionally, for practical applications, a method should allow weight assignment not only to individual samples, but also to groups of objects (for example, all samples of the same class). This paper aims to bridge this gap by introducing ALSO x2013 Adaptive Loss Scaling Optimizer x2013 an adaptive algorithm for a modified DRO objective that can handle weight assignment to sample groups. We prove the convergence of our proposed algorithm for non-convex objectives, which is the typical case for DL models. Empirical evaluation across diverse Deep Learning tasks, from Tabular DL to Split Learning tasks, demonstrates that ALSO outperforms both traditional optimizers and existing DRO methods.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

The rapid growth of modern training datasets has significantly increased computational cost, motivating dataset pruning~(DP) methods which retain only a subset of informative samples to reduce training cost. Existing pruning criteria typically rely on either intrinsic signals that assess samples independently or extrinsic signals that promote diversity via pairwise relations. While effective in their own specific regimes, each captures only one aspect of sample utility and lacks robustness across different pruning ratios or data distribution. In this work, we present a unified graph-based DP framework. By modeling the dataset as a weighted graph, where node weights encode intrinsic value and edge weights encode extrinsic value, DP can be cast as a Maximum Weight Clique Problem (MWCP). Although MWCP is NP-hard, its structure admits a principled greedy solution based on sample-wise marginal gains. Under a few mild conditions, we further prove that this unified objective enjoys a formal approximation guarantee, which applies to a broad family of importance metrics and provides practical design guidelines. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms existing DP methods while substantially reducing training cost, reducing training time by over 40\% without sacrificing accuracy on ImageNet-1k with ResNet-50.

Adversarial training has been empirically proven to be one of the most effective and reliable defense methods against adversarial attacks. However, almost all existing studies about adversarial training are focused on balanced datasets, where each class has an equal amount of training examples. Research on adversarial training with imbalanced training datasets is rather limited. As the initial effort to investigate this problem, we reveal the facts that adversarially trained models present two distinguished behaviors from naturally trained models in imbalanced datasets: (1) Compared to natural training, adversarially trained models can suffer much worse performance on under-represented classes, when the training dataset is extremely imbalanced. (2) Traditional reweighting strategies may lose efficacy to deal with the imbalance issue for adversarial training. For example, upweighting the under-represented classes will drastically hurt the model's performance on well-represented classes, and as a result, finding an optimal reweighting value can be tremendously challenging. In this paper, to further understand our observations, we theoretically show that the poor data separability is one key reason causing this strong tension between under-represented and well-represented classes. Motivated by this finding, we propose Separable Reweighted Adversarial Training (SRAT) to facilitate adversarial training under imbalanced scenarios, by learning more separable features for different classes. Extensive experiments on various datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Relation classification models are conventionally evaluated using only a single measure, e.g., micro-F1, macro-F1 or AUC. In this work, we analyze weighting schemes, such as micro and macro, for imbalanced datasets. We introduce a framework for weighting schemes, where existing schemes are extremes, and two new intermediate schemes. We show that reporting results of different weighting schemes better highlights strengths and weaknesses of a model.

General decision models, such as Jev, have recently emerged as efficient alternatives to LLMs for structured judgment and selection. But what kinds of decisions can these models reliably make, and how does their behavior change when individual decisions are composed into larger systems? To study this, we introduce JEVal, a bilingual benchmark comprising 11,257 instances from 36 datasets across 10 application domains, and evaluate 25 model configurations spanning general decision models and generative LLMs. Our results show that (1) general decision models are most competitive when decisions can be resolved from available evidence, but weaken when they require specialist knowledge or faithful uncertainty estimation: they can often identify the most likely outcome while substantially overstating its probability. (2) In more dynamic and realistic systems involving long-horizon, multi-step interactions, the advantages of fast local decision making are offset by reliability failures at the system level. on τ-bench, faster local decisions reduce median episode time but lower task success as decision errors accumulate over long trajectories. (3) In large-scale social simulation, decision models approach strong generative LLMs on individual response prediction at substantially lower inference cost, yet remain weaker in user profiling and exhibit larger aggregate estimation errors and systematic bias. Finally, we propose InnerJev-4B and InnerJev-27B, which internalize an open-weight LLM's own reasoning into a single-pass first-token decision through Reasoning-to-Readout Self-Distillation, with InnerJev-27B performing on par with Jev on JEVal while answering a typical query in about 0.1 s.

Random forests and, more generally, (decision\nobreakdash-)tree ensembles are widely used methods for classification and regression. Recent algorithmic advances allow to compute decision trees that are optimal for various measures such as their size or depth. We are not aware of such research for tree ensembles and aim to contribute to this area. Mainly, we provide two novel algorithms and corresponding lower bounds. First, we are able to carry over and substantially improve on tractability results for decision trees, obtaining a (6delta D S)^S cdot poly-time algorithm, where S is the number of cuts in the tree ensemble, D the largest domain size, and delta is the largest number of features in which two examples differ. To achieve this, we introduce the witness-tree technique which also seems promising for practice. Second, we show that dynamic programming, which has been successful for decision trees, may also be viable for tree ensembles, providing an ell^n cdot poly-time algorithm, where ell is the number of trees and n the number of examples. Finally, we compare the number of cuts necessary to classify training data sets for decision trees and tree ensembles, showing that ensembles may need exponentially fewer cuts for increasing number of trees.

Active learning is a machine learning paradigm that aims to improve the performance of a model by strategically selecting and querying unlabeled data. One effective selection strategy is to base it on the model's predictive uncertainty, which can be interpreted as a measure of how informative a sample is. The sample's distance to the decision boundary is a natural measure of predictive uncertainty, but it is often intractable to compute, especially for complex decision boundaries formed in multiclass classification tasks. To address this issue, this paper proposes the {\it least disagree metric} (LDM), defined as the smallest probability of disagreement of the predicted label, and an estimator for LDM proven to be asymptotically consistent under mild assumptions. The estimator is computationally efficient and can be easily implemented for deep learning models using parameter perturbation. The LDM-based active learning is performed by querying unlabeled data with the smallest LDM. Experimental results show that our LDM-based active learning algorithm obtains state-of-the-art overall performance on all considered datasets and deep architectures.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

Given that conventional recommenders, while deeply effective, rely on large distributed systems pre-trained on aggregate user data, incorporating new data necessitates large training cycles, making them slow to adapt to real-time user feedback and often lacking transparency in recommendation rationale. We explore the performance of smaller personal models trained on per-user data using weightless neural networks (WNNs), an alternative to neural backpropagation that enable continuous learning by using neural networks as a state machine rather than a system with pretrained weights. We contrast our approach against a classic weighted system, also on a per-user level, and standard collaborative filtering, achieving competitive levels of accuracy on a subset of the MovieLens dataset. We close with a discussion of how weightless systems can be developed to augment centralized systems to achieve higher subjective accuracy through recommenders more directly tunable by end-users.

We study the best arm identification problem in a stochastic environment with a novel form of adversarial perturbations, which we coin Shifting Means. While classically the mean rewards of the K arms are stable in time, in Shifting Means only the gaps boldsymbolΔ between mean rewards are stable, while their common shift may be determined adversarially in each round. The objective of the learner is to identify the best arm with high probability while minimizing sample complexity (the fixed confidence setting). Handling shifts requires new tools: we show that algorithms employing a Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) stopping rule, including the popular Track-and-Stop, fail under time-varying shifts. Instead, we propose Importance Weights for Shifting Means (ISM). Assuming means bounded by U and σ^2-sub-Gaussian rewards, we show ISM to be δ-correct and to enjoy a sample complexity bound of order K (σ^2 + U^2) Δ_{min}^{-2} ln 1δ. We also present a matching (up to constant factors) worst-case lower bound and evaluate our results empirically.

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those weights and we have developed a simpler approximate Kalman filter model that outperforms the current state of the art projected TD-Learning methods on several standard benchmark problems.

In this paper, we present a simple yet effective provable method (named ABSGD) for addressing the data imbalance or label noise problem in deep learning. Our method is a simple modification to momentum SGD where we assign an individual importance weight to each sample in the mini-batch. The individual-level weight of sampled data is systematically proportional to the exponential of a scaled loss value of the data, where the scaling factor is interpreted as the regularization parameter in the framework of distributionally robust optimization (DRO). Depending on whether the scaling factor is positive or negative, ABSGD is guaranteed to converge to a stationary point of an information-regularized min-max or min-min DRO problem, respectively. Compared with existing class-level weighting schemes, our method can capture the diversity between individual examples within each class. Compared with existing individual-level weighting methods using meta-learning that require three backward propagations for computing mini-batch stochastic gradients, our method is more efficient with only one backward propagation at each iteration as in standard deep learning methods. ABSGD is flexible enough to combine with other robust losses without any additional cost. Our empirical studies on several benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Code is available at:\url{https://github.com/qiqi-helloworld/ABSGD/}

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

This paper discusses the weight parametrization of two standard 1-Lipschitz network architectures, the Almost-Orthogonal-Layers (AOL) and the SDP-based Lipschitz Layers (SLL). It examines their impact on initialization for deep 1-Lipschitz feedforward networks, and discusses underlying issues surrounding this initialization. These networks are mainly used in certifiably robust classification applications to combat adversarial attacks by limiting the impact of perturbations on the classification output. Exact and upper bounds for the parameterized weight variance were calculated assuming a standard Normal distribution initialization; additionally, an upper bound was computed assuming a Generalized Normal Distribution, generalizing the proof for Uniform, Laplace, and Normal distribution weight initializations. It is demonstrated that the weight variance holds no bearing on the output variance distribution and that only the dimension of the weight matrices matters. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that the weight initialization always causes deep 1-Lipschitz networks to decay to zero.

Many language-based applications need a probability distribution over a small set of decisions rather than an open-ended response. We present Chinese Decision, a family of Chinese-language decision models that adapts pretrained causal language models to this interface. Each question is compiled into a shared instruction-and-candidate prompt; a single forward pass reads the final-position logits of the candidate letters and normalizes them over the valid options, without autoregressive answer generation. The interface covers Boolean judgments, categorical choices, and ordinal scores. We report three completed members built on Qwen3.5 0.8B, 2B, and 4B backbones, each trained for one epoch on the same 13.048 million decisions and released with a validation-fitted temperature and a Q8_0 quantization. On the full 307,900-decision CJ-Bench, the 4B model reaches 85.97% overall accuracy, 75.69% general-domain accuracy, and 84.00% average accuracy across medicine, law, and finance with a single checkpoint, above every reported baseline in each domain, at 1.00% expected calibration error. Between the 2B and 4B members, which share data, objective, and minimum batch, parent-clustered paired bootstrap intervals show gains in all four domains, largest in the two low-resource domains (+8.5 and +7.1 points), whereas the 2B gain over 0.8B in law is not statistically resolved. Analyses of the stored predictions further show that a single global temperature lowers pooled calibration error while worsening some domains, that larger members rank their own errors better for selective prediction, and that merging and quantization each change 0.4-1.1% of top-1 predictions while leaving aggregate metrics nearly unchanged. All comparisons rest on single training runs and imported baselines.

Numerous real-world decision-making problems can be formulated and solved using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) models. However, the transformation of these problems into MILP models heavily relies on expertise in operations research and mathematical optimization, which restricts non-experts' accessibility to MILP. To address this challenge, we propose a framework for automatically formulating MILP models from unstructured natural language descriptions of decision problems, which integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) and mathematical modeling techniques. This framework consists of three phases: i) identification of decision variables, ii) classification of objective and constraints, and iii) finally, generation of MILP models. In this study, we present a constraint classification scheme and a set of constraint templates that can guide the LLMs in synthesizing a complete MILP model. After fine-tuning LLMs, our approach can identify and synthesize logic constraints in addition to classic demand and resource constraints. The logic constraints have not been studied in existing work. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, we extend the NL4Opt dataset with more problem descriptions and constraint types, and with the new dataset, we compare our framework with one-step model generation methods offered by LLMs. The experimental results reveal that with respect to the accuracies of generating the correct model, objective, and constraints, our method which integrates constraint classification and templates with LLMs significantly outperforms the others. The prototype system that we developed has a great potential to capture more constraints for more complex MILPs. It opens up opportunities for developing training tools for operations research practitioners and has the potential to be a powerful tool for automatic decision problem modeling and solving in practice.

Good weight initialization serves as an effective measure to reduce the training cost of a deep neural network (DNN) model. The choice of how to initialize parameters is challenging and may require manual tuning, which can be time-consuming and prone to human error. To overcome such limitations, this work takes a novel step towards building a weight generator to synthesize the neural weights for initialization. We use the image-to-image translation task with generative adversarial networks (GANs) as an example due to the ease of collecting model weights spanning a wide range. Specifically, we first collect a dataset with various image editing concepts and their corresponding trained weights, which are later used for the training of the weight generator. To address the different characteristics among layers and the substantial number of weights to be predicted, we divide the weights into equal-sized blocks and assign each block an index. Subsequently, a diffusion model is trained with such a dataset using both text conditions of the concept and the block indexes. By initializing the image translation model with the denoised weights predicted by our diffusion model, the training requires only 43.3 seconds. Compared to training from scratch (i.e., Pix2pix), we achieve a 15x training time acceleration for a new concept while obtaining even better image generation quality.

Online allocation problems with resource constraints are central problems in revenue management and online advertising. In these problems, requests arrive sequentially during a finite horizon and, for each request, a decision maker needs to choose an action that consumes a certain amount of resources and generates reward. The objective is to maximize cumulative rewards subject to a constraint on the total consumption of resources. In this paper, we consider a data-driven setting in which the reward and resource consumption of each request are generated using an input model that is unknown to the decision maker. We design a general class of algorithms that attain good performance in various input models without knowing which type of input they are facing. In particular, our algorithms are asymptotically optimal under independent and identically distributed inputs as well as various non-stationary stochastic input models, and they attain an asymptotically optimal fixed competitive ratio when the input is adversarial. Our algorithms operate in the Lagrangian dual space: they maintain a dual multiplier for each resource that is updated using online mirror descent. By choosing the reference function accordingly, we recover the dual sub-gradient descent and dual multiplicative weights update algorithm. The resulting algorithms are simple, fast, and do not require convexity in the revenue function, consumption function and action space, in contrast to existing methods for online allocation problems. We discuss applications to network revenue management, online bidding in repeated auctions with budget constraints, online proportional matching with high entropy, and personalized assortment optimization with limited inventory.

Large language model (LLM) judges are often used as rewards to train policies on objectives that deterministic verifiers cannot capture. However, these rewards are often collapsed to pass/fail ({0, 1}), which reports the verdict but not how well a response met each criterion. We model each pass/fail verdict as a score on an unreported scale, compared with one cutoff. A stretch of that scale moves every score proportionally toward or away from the cutoff, but never across it, so no verdict changes. A policy is therefore free to apply any stretch without changing anything the panel reports. Under a joint-Gaussian model, a third grade adds a second threshold and removes this affine stretch ambiguity. On MATH and SciBench outputs from one seven-criterion judge, all 14 constructed criterionwise stretches were invisible after binarization but visible with three grades. At n=1{,}024, a test given both population laws had at least 96.5% power at a 1.5times stress. Retaining grades closes one blind spot created by binarization, but verdicts alone remain insufficient as some changes are still indistinguishable from genuine improvement. These include arbitrary within-grade changes and fixed-covariance, loading-aligned mean shifts -- the signature of a sycophancy-shaped lift the panel reads as competence. The shared-factor reference approximation fit MATH and SciBench but not HealthBench, delineating its empirical scope. We recommend keeping at least three grades (for example, asking the judge whether each criterion is fully, partially, or not met and rewarding {0, 0.5, 1}), and externally validating gains along the remaining direction, which no finer scale removes.

Assigning importance weights to adversarial data has achieved great success in training adversarially robust networks under limited model capacity. However, existing instance-reweighted adversarial training (AT) methods heavily depend on heuristics and/or geometric interpretations to determine those importance weights, making these algorithms lack rigorous theoretical justification/guarantee. Moreover, recent research has shown that adversarial training suffers from a severe non-uniform robust performance across the training distribution, e.g., data points belonging to some classes can be much more vulnerable to adversarial attacks than others. To address both issues, in this paper, we propose a novel doubly-robust instance reweighted AT framework, which allows to obtain the importance weights via exploring distributionally robust optimization (DRO) techniques, and at the same time boosts the robustness on the most vulnerable examples. In particular, our importance weights are obtained by optimizing the KL-divergence regularized loss function, which allows us to devise new algorithms with a theoretical convergence guarantee. Experiments on standard classification datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms related state-of-the-art baseline methods in terms of average robust performance, and at the same time improves the robustness against attacks on the weakest data points. Codes will be available soon.

Candidate-scoring decision models return a probability distribution over a presented set of answers. Public documentation of one such system, Jev, and of an open counterpart, JevAny, describes three training ingredients that determine what these probabilities estimate: soft targets from larger models, a frozen pretrained backbone and temperature calibration. We analyze each ingredient in Gaussian surrogates where the finite-sample risk can be computed exactly. A student trained on teacher targets inherits the teacher's bias, which more student data does not remove and agreement with the teacher does not reveal. A fixed representation lowers the risk only below an explicit sample-size threshold. In a probit model the exact recalibration map is a temperature scaling, which removes all excess risk only when the teacher's coefficient has the correct direction and otherwise leaves a residual that calibration diagnostics do not detect. Under Luce's choice axiom, candidate scores are coherent across refinements of an event if and only if they aggregate by log-sum-exp. On 231,521 credit card complaints from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, where the decision is whether a complaint ends in monetary relief, a student trained on a logistic teacher's probabilities ends at the teacher's decision cost while a student trained on outcomes goes 8% below it, a 30B model read zero-shot remains worse than the teacher after recalibration, and that model departs from the coherence condition by 17.5 decibans. Pretrained representations reduce the labeled data required and calibration corrects the scale of the probabilities, but neither corrects a biased teacher, so the probabilities have to be checked against realized outcomes.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically pretrained in high precision but increasingly deployed with low-precision post-training quantization (PTQ). Recent studies have shown that using weight averaging during pretraining can improve PTQ performance compared with learning-rate decay, suggesting that it might provide a simple way to improve the pretraining-to-quantization transition. But the mechanism behind weight averaging remains insufficiently explained. This leads to inconsistent and fragile performance gains, thereby preventing practitioners from applying such a technique confidently. As a response, we formulate weight averaging as a trade-off between retaining training progress and improving robustness under perturbation. We further derive a continuous family of averaging kernels that unifies conventional strategies and achieves the Pareto frontier between the two competing goals. Critically, a theoretical framework for performing weight averaging under PTQ is developed. It can be shown that coarser quantization is more susceptible to perturbations, whereas finer quantization could be less affected. Thus, our results could provide unified theoretical guidance for performing weight averaging under different PTQ conditions. Experiments validate both the predicted behavior and the proposed averaging strategy. Code is available at https://github.com/MOFA-LAB/weight-averaging-for-ptq.

We focus on the classification problem with a separable dataset, one of the most important and classical problems from machine learning. The standard approach to this task is logistic regression with gradient descent (LR+GD). Recent studies have observed that LR+GD can find a solution with arbitrarily large step sizes, defying conventional optimization theory. Our work investigates this phenomenon and makes three interconnected key observations about LR+GD with large step sizes. First, we find a remarkably simple explanation of why LR+GD with large step sizes solves the classification problem: LR+GD reduces to a batch version of the celebrated perceptron algorithm when the step size gamma to infty. Second, we observe that larger step sizes lead LR+GD to higher logistic losses when it tends to the perceptron algorithm, but larger step sizes also lead to faster convergence to a solution for the classification problem, meaning that logistic loss is an unreliable metric of the proximity to a solution. Surprisingly, high loss values can actually indicate faster convergence. Third, since the convergence rate in terms of loss function values of LR+GD is unreliable, we examine the iteration complexity required by LR+GD with large step sizes to solve the classification problem and prove that this complexity is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a new method, Normalized LR+GD - based on the connection between LR+GD and the perceptron algorithm - with much better theoretical guarantees.

Pre-trained weights have become a cornerstone of modern deep learning, enabling efficient knowledge transfer and improving downstream task performance, especially in data-scarce scenarios. However, a fundamental question remains: how can we obtain better pre-trained weights that encapsulate more knowledge beyond the given dataset? In this work, we introduce KNowledge-Overflowed Weights (KNOW) prediction, a novel strategy that leverages structured forgetting and its inversion to synthesize knowledge-enriched weights. Our key insight is that sequential fine-tuning on progressively downsized datasets induces a structured forgetting process, which can be modeled and reversed to recover knowledge as if trained on a larger dataset. We construct a dataset of weight transitions governed by this controlled forgetting and employ meta-learning to model weight prediction effectively. Specifically, our KNowledge-Overflowed Weights Nowcaster (KNOWN) acts as a hyper-model that learns the general evolution of weights and predicts enhanced weights with improved generalization. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and architectures demonstrate that KNOW prediction consistently outperforms Naive fine-tuning and simple weight prediction, leading to superior downstream performance. Our work provides a new perspective on reinterpreting forgetting dynamics to push the limits of knowledge transfer. The code and pre-trained model are available at https://github.com/jjh6297/KNOW

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

In this paper, we propose a learning rule based on a back-propagation (BP) algorithm that can be applied to a hardware-based deep neural network (HW-DNN) using electronic devices that exhibit discrete and limited conductance characteristics. This adaptive learning rule, which enables forward, backward propagation, as well as weight updates in hardware, is helpful during the implementation of power-efficient and high-speed deep neural networks. In simulations using a three-layer perceptron network, we evaluate the learning performance according to various conductance responses of electronic synapse devices and weight-updating methods. It is shown that the learning accuracy is comparable to that obtained when using a software-based BP algorithm when the electronic synapse device has a linear conductance response with a high dynamic range. Furthermore, the proposed unidirectional weight-updating method is suitable for electronic synapse devices which have nonlinear and finite conductance responses. Because this weight-updating method can compensate the demerit of asymmetric weight updates, we can obtain better accuracy compared to other methods. This adaptive learning rule, which can be applied to full hardware implementation, can also compensate the degradation of learning accuracy due to the probable device-to-device variation in an actual electronic synapse device.

Yggdrasil Decision Forests is a library for the training, serving and interpretation of decision forest models, targeted both at research and production work, implemented in C++, and available in C++, command line interface, Python (under the name TensorFlow Decision Forests), JavaScript, Go, and Google Sheets (under the name Simple ML for Sheets). The library has been developed organically since 2018 following a set of four design principles applicable to machine learning libraries and frameworks: simplicity of use, safety of use, modularity and high-level abstraction, and integration with other machine learning libraries. In this paper, we describe those principles in detail and present how they have been used to guide the design of the library. We then showcase the use of our library on a set of classical machine learning problems. Finally, we report a benchmark comparing our library to related solutions.

In federated learning (FL), weighted aggregation of local models is conducted to generate a global model, and the aggregation weights are normalized (the sum of weights is 1) and proportional to the local data sizes. In this paper, we revisit the weighted aggregation process and gain new insights into the training dynamics of FL. First, we find that the sum of weights can be smaller than 1, causing global weight shrinking effect (analogous to weight decay) and improving generalization. We explore how the optimal shrinking factor is affected by clients' data heterogeneity and local epochs. Second, we dive into the relative aggregation weights among clients to depict the clients' importance. We develop client coherence to study the learning dynamics and find a critical point that exists. Before entering the critical point, more coherent clients play more essential roles in generalization. Based on the above insights, we propose an effective method for Federated Learning with Learnable Aggregation Weights, named as FedLAW. Extensive experiments verify that our method can improve the generalization of the global model by a large margin on different datasets and models.

Large Language Models excel at reasoning and generation but their autoregressive, token-by-token inference makes them unnecessarily slow, expensive, and poorly calibrated for the many routine decisions (routing, gating, scoring, classification) that modern AI systems require at sub-second latency. A growing class of models addresses this gap: System 1 decision models, architectures that map an input directly to a typed, structured decision in a single forward pass. This guide provides a comprehensive, practitioner-oriented treatment of the field. We propose a five-family taxonomy covering encoder-based classifiers, reward models, non-autoregressive decision engines, contrastive decision models, and extraction models, and we provide in-depth coverage of each family's architecture, training methodology, and deployment trade-offs. A central theme is calibration: we develop the theory of proper scoring rules, analyze Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions (RLCD), and examine recently discovered phenomena including IIA violations, ordinal-scale bias, and few-shot recalibration under distribution shift. On the integration side, we describe how System 1 models serve as decision infrastructure within agentic workflows and System 1 + System 2 cascades that route between fast and slow models based on calibrated confidence. The guide covers 18 application domains, maps the rapidly growing open-source ecosystem (over 70 model reproductions in weeks), provides runnable code throughout, and includes a practitioner's checklist, an open-source model zoo, and 22 self-assessment questions with detailed answers. Spanning 190 references, it is intended as a unified entry point for researchers and engineers working at the intersection of fast decision-making, calibration, and production AI systems.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

This paper explores the scenarios under which an attacker can claim that 'Noise and access to the softmax layer of the model is all you need' to steal the weights of a convolutional neural network whose architecture is already known. We were able to achieve 96% test accuracy using the stolen MNIST model and 82% accuracy using the stolen KMNIST model learned using only i.i.d. Bernoulli noise inputs. We posit that this theft-susceptibility of the weights is indicative of the complexity of the dataset and propose a new metric that captures the same. The goal of this dissemination is to not just showcase how far knowing the architecture can take you in terms of model stealing, but to also draw attention to this rather idiosyncratic weight learnability aspects of CNNs spurred by i.i.d. noise input. We also disseminate some initial results obtained with using the Ising probability distribution in lieu of the i.i.d. Bernoulli distribution.

Experts advising decision-makers are likely to display expertise which varies as a function of the problem instance. In practice, this may lead to sub-optimal or discriminatory decisions against minority cases. In this work we model such changes in depth and breadth of knowledge as a partitioning of the problem space into regions of differing expertise. We provide here new algorithms that explicitly consider and adapt to the relationship between problem instances and experts' knowledge. We first propose and highlight the drawbacks of a naive approach based on nearest neighbor queries. To address these drawbacks we then introduce a novel algorithm - expertise trees - that constructs decision trees enabling the learner to select appropriate models. We provide theoretical insights and empirically validate the improved performance of our novel approach on a range of problems for which existing methods proved to be inadequate.

The weights of neural networks (NNs) have recently gained prominence as a new data modality in machine learning, with applications ranging from accuracy and hyperparameter prediction to representation learning or weight generation. One approach to leverage NN weights involves training autoencoders (AEs), using contrastive and reconstruction losses. This allows such models to be applied to a wide variety of downstream tasks, and they demonstrate strong predictive performance and low reconstruction error. However, despite the low reconstruction error, these AEs reconstruct NN models with deteriorated performance compared to the original ones, limiting their usability with regard to model weight generation. In this paper, we identify a limitation of weight-space AEs, specifically highlighting that a structural loss, that uses the Euclidean distance between original and reconstructed weights, fails to capture some features critical for reconstructing high-performing models. We analyze the addition of a behavioral loss for training AEs in weight space, where we compare the output of the reconstructed model with that of the original one, given some common input. We show a strong synergy between structural and behavioral signals, leading to increased performance in all downstream tasks evaluated, in particular NN weights reconstruction and generation.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

This paper offers a new perspective to ease the challenge of domain generalization, which involves maintaining robust results even in unseen environments. Our design focuses on the decision-making process in the final classifier layer. Specifically, we propose treating the element-wise contributions to the final results as the rationale for making a decision and representing the rationale for each sample as a matrix. For a well-generalized model, we suggest the rationale matrices for samples belonging to the same category should be similar, indicating the model relies on domain-invariant clues to make decisions, thereby ensuring robust results. To implement this idea, we introduce a rationale invariance loss as a simple regularization technique, requiring only a few lines of code. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves competitive results across various datasets, despite its simplicity. Code is available at https://github.com/liangchen527/RIDG.