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Jul 31

DoTime: A Synthetic Benchmark Generator for Interventional and Counterfactual Time Series

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 28

Janus-Q: End-to-End Event-Driven Trading via Hierarchical-Gated Reward Modeling

Financial market movements are often driven by discrete financial events conveyed through news, whose impacts are heterogeneous, abrupt, and difficult to capture under purely numerical prediction objectives. These limitations have motivated growing interest in using textual information as the primary source of trading signals in learning-based systems. Two key challenges hinder existing approaches: (1) the absence of large-scale, event-centric datasets that jointly model news semantics and statistically grounded market reactions, and (2) the misalignment between language model reasoning and financially valid trading behavior under dynamic market conditions. To address these challenges, we propose Janus-Q, an end-to-end event-driven trading framework that elevates financial news events from auxiliary signals to primary decision units. Janus-Q unifies event-centric data construction and model optimization under a two-stage paradigm. Stage I focuses on event-centric data construction, building a large-scale financial news event dataset comprising 62,400 articles annotated with 10 fine-grained event types, associated stocks, sentiment labels, and event-driven cumulative abnormal return (CAR). Stage II performs decision-oriented fine-tuning, combining supervised learning with reinforcement learning guided by a Hierarchical Gated Reward Model (HGRM), which explicitly captures trade-offs among multiple trading objectives. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Janus-Q achieves more consistent, interpretable, and profitable trading decisions than market indices and LLM baselines, improving the Sharpe Ratio by up to 102.0% while increasing direction accuracy by over 17.5% compared to the strongest competing strategies.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 26

Decoupling KL and Trajectories: A Unified Perspective for SFT, DAgger, Offline RL, and OPD in LLM Distillation

Knowledge distillation is central to LLM post-training, yet its design space remains poorly understood, especially alongside reinforcement learning (RL). We show that the prevailing paradigms, off-policy distillation and on-policy distillation (OPD), implicitly couple two orthogonal choices: prefix source and token-level KL direction. This follows from decomposing sequence-level KL over autoregressive response distributions: forward KL pairs teacher prefixes with token-level forward KL, and reverse KL pairs student prefixes with token-level reverse KL. We argue this coupling is not intrinsic: decoupling the two axes yields four valid objectives. We establish gradient-level identities showing forward KL gives SFT-style cross-entropy matching with teacher soft targets, whereas reverse KL gives an RL-style policy-gradient objective with a dense teacher-student log-ratio reward, connecting them to off-policy SFT, DAgger-style on-policy SFT, offline-RL-style distillation, and OPD. We conduct an extensive controlled study on math reasoning, evaluating the four objectives both as standalone methods and as initializations for subsequent RL. The results reveal three tradeoffs: KL direction induces an accuracy-entropy tradeoff, prefix source a quality-compute tradeoff, and training length an accuracy-stability tradeoff. Motivated by these findings, we propose KL mixing and an entropy-gated length curriculum. KL mixing shows long-sequence distillation requires substantial forward-KL weight to prevent entropy collapse and length inflation without sacrificing accuracy. The entropy-gated length curriculum improves Avg@k and Pass@k by 3.6 and up to 5.8 points, and cuts average response length by roughly 3x versus fixed long-horizon training. Our results provide a framework and practical methods for designing reasoning distillation objectives that balance accuracy, diversity, compute, and RL behavior.

  • 6 authors
·
May 15

Direction-Preserving Number Representations

Low-precision number formats are widely used in modern machine learning systems due to their efficiency. Accurate direction representation is key to the accuracy of vector operations. This work precisely explores the extent to which the direction of a vector can be represented by selecting its scalar elements from a common finite alphabet of a given size. This is standard practice in machine learning, where low-precision significands may be narrow-width floating-point or integer values. A geometric framework is introduced for analyzing the directional coverage of such product-structured codes. This work analytically quantifies the suboptimality gap between such product-structured codes and spherical codes for the vector as a whole, in both low and asymptotically high dimensions. Furthermore, within the product code class, it is proven that the standard formats of two's complement, fixed-point, and floating-point are suboptimal, again with quantified gap, pointing to the potential to develop new scalar number formats. Such scalar alphabets are numerically optimized across multiple block dimensions for directional coverage, including the dimension used in NVIDIA's NVFP4 format. Experimental results are presented comparing the performance of standard formats and the optimized alphabet. We find that for four bits, NVIDIA's choice of E2M1 closely approximates the optimized alphabet, providing a geometric explanation for its strong performance in low-precision machine learning workloads and an analytical understanding of the link between that superiority and block size. We provide open-source formal proofs in Lean for the theorems in this work, along with the experimental code and the optimized alphabets obtained.

  • 2 authors
·
May 7

Limits on the accuracy of contact inhibition of locomotion

Cells that collide with each other repolarize away from contact, in a process called contact inhibition of locomotion (CIL), which is necessary for correct development of the embryo. CIL can occur even when cells make a micron-scale contact with a neighbor - much smaller than their size. How precisely can a cell sense cell-cell contact and repolarize in the correct direction? What factors control whether a cell recognizes it has contacted a neighbor? We propose a theoretical model for the limits of CIL where cells recognize the presence of another cell by binding the protein ephrin with the Eph receptor. This recognition is made difficult by the presence of interfering ligands that bind nonspecifically. Both theoretical predictions and simulation results show that it becomes more difficult to sense cell-cell contact when it is difficult to distinguish ephrin from the interfering ligands, or when there are more interfering ligands, or when the contact width decreases. However, the error of estimating contact position remains almost constant when the contact width changes. This happens because the cell gains spatial information largely from the boundaries of cell-cell contact. We study using statistical decision theory the likelihood of a false positive CIL event in the absence of cell-cell contact, and the likelihood of a false negative where CIL does not occur when another cell is present. Our results suggest that the cell is more likely to make incorrect decisions when the contact width is very small or so large that it nears the cell's perimeter. However, in general, we find that cells have the ability to make reasonably reliable CIL decisions even for very narrow (micron-scale) contacts, even if the concentration of interfering ligands is ten times that of the correct ligands.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 31, 2023

The Right Answer, the Wrong Direction: Why Transformers Fail at Counting and How to Fix It

Large language models often fail at simple counting tasks, even when the items to count are explicitly present in the prompt. We investigate whether this failure occurs because transformers do not represent counts internally, or because they cannot convert those representations into the correct output tokens. Across three model families, Pythia, Qwen3, and Mistral, ranging from 0.4B to 14B parameters, we find strong evidence for the second explanation. Linear probes recover the correct count from intermediate layers with near-perfect accuracy (R^2>0.99), showing that the information is present. However, the internal directions that encode counts are nearly orthogonal to the output-head rows for digit tokens (|cos|leq0.032). In other words, the model stores the count in a form that the digit logits do not naturally read out. We localize this failure with two interventions. Updating only the digit rows of the output head (36,864 parameters) substantially improves constrained next-token digit prediction (60.7 to 100.0% across four tasks), but it does not fix autoregressive generation. By contrast, a small LoRA intervention on attention Q/V weights (7.67M parameters) improves upstream routing and achieves 83.1% +/- 7.2% in true greedy autoregressive generation. Logit-lens measurements confirm the mechanism: the correct digit's vocabulary rank drops from 55,980 to 1, a 50,000x improvement. Additional norm, logit-lens, and cross-task analyses show that the bottleneck generalizes across character counting, addition, and list length, while remaining absent from broader multi-step reasoning benchmarks, including MMLU, GSM8K, and DROP. These results identify counting failure as a geometric readout bottleneck rather than a failure of internal representation: the model knows the count but the output pathway is geometrically misaligned with the tokens needed to express it.

  • 1 authors
·
May 4

Tailoring Teaching to Aptitude: Direction-Adaptive Self-Distillation for LLM Reasoning

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) is an emerging LLM post-training paradigm in which the model serves as its own teacher: conditioned on privileged information such as a reference trace or hint, the same policy provides dense token-level supervision on its own rollouts. However, recent studies show that OPSD degrades complex reasoning by suppressing predictive uncertainty, which supports exploration and hypothesis revision. Our token-level analysis shows that this failure arises from applying a uniform direction of teacher supervision across tokens with different uncertainty levels: conformity to the privileged self-teacher suppresses exploration at high entropy, while deviation from the teacher degrades step accuracy at low entropy. Accordingly, we propose Direction-Adaptive Self-Distillation (DASD), which reframes privileged self-distillation from uniform teacher imitation into entropy-routed directional supervision: high-entropy tokens are pushed away from the privileged teacher to preserve exploration, while low-entropy tokens are pulled toward the teacher to stabilize step-level execution. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, DASD achieves the best macro Avg@16 over strong RLVR and self-distillation baselines. Pass@k, reasoning-health, and generalization analyses show that these average gains come from preserving exploration without sacrificing step-level execution.

  • 7 authors
·
May 20

Improving Knowledge Distillation via Regularizing Feature Norm and Direction

Knowledge distillation (KD) exploits a large well-trained model (i.e., teacher) to train a small student model on the same dataset for the same task. Treating teacher features as knowledge, prevailing methods of knowledge distillation train student by aligning its features with the teacher's, e.g., by minimizing the KL-divergence between their logits or L2 distance between their intermediate features. While it is natural to believe that better alignment of student features to the teacher better distills teacher knowledge, simply forcing this alignment does not directly contribute to the student's performance, e.g., classification accuracy. In this work, we propose to align student features with class-mean of teacher features, where class-mean naturally serves as a strong classifier. To this end, we explore baseline techniques such as adopting the cosine distance based loss to encourage the similarity between student features and their corresponding class-means of the teacher. Moreover, we train the student to produce large-norm features, inspired by other lines of work (e.g., model pruning and domain adaptation), which find the large-norm features to be more significant. Finally, we propose a rather simple loss term (dubbed ND loss) to simultaneously (1) encourage student to produce large-norm features, and (2) align the direction of student features and teacher class-means. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that our explored techniques help existing KD methods achieve better performance, i.e., higher classification accuracy on ImageNet and CIFAR100 datasets, and higher detection precision on COCO dataset. Importantly, our proposed ND loss helps the most, leading to the state-of-the-art performance on these benchmarks. The source code is available at https://github.com/WangYZ1608/Knowledge-Distillation-via-ND.

  • 6 authors
·
May 26, 2023

SyncHuman: Synchronizing 2D and 3D Generative Models for Single-view Human Reconstruction

Photorealistic 3D full-body human reconstruction from a single image is a critical yet challenging task for applications in films and video games due to inherent ambiguities and severe self-occlusions. While recent approaches leverage SMPL estimation and SMPL-conditioned image generative models to hallucinate novel views, they suffer from inaccurate 3D priors estimated from SMPL meshes and have difficulty in handling difficult human poses and reconstructing fine details. In this paper, we propose SyncHuman, a novel framework that combines 2D multiview generative model and 3D native generative model for the first time, enabling high-quality clothed human mesh reconstruction from single-view images even under challenging human poses. Multiview generative model excels at capturing fine 2D details but struggles with structural consistency, whereas 3D native generative model generates coarse yet structurally consistent 3D shapes. By integrating the complementary strengths of these two approaches, we develop a more effective generation framework. Specifically, we first jointly fine-tune the multiview generative model and the 3D native generative model with proposed pixel-aligned 2D-3D synchronization attention to produce geometrically aligned 3D shapes and 2D multiview images. To further improve details, we introduce a feature injection mechanism that lifts fine details from 2D multiview images onto the aligned 3D shapes, enabling accurate and high-fidelity reconstruction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SyncHuman achieves robust and photo-realistic 3D human reconstruction, even for images with challenging poses. Our method outperforms baseline methods in geometric accuracy and visual fidelity, demonstrating a promising direction for future 3D generation models.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 8, 2025 1

ReFIne: A Framework for Trustworthy Large Reasoning Models with Reliability, Faithfulness, and Interpretability

Recent advances in long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning have largely prioritized answer accuracy and token efficiency, while overlooking aspects critical to trustworthiness. We argue that usable reasoning systems must be trustworthy, characterized by three properties: interpretability, faithfulness, and reliability. To this end, we propose ReFIne, a new training framework that integrates supervised fine-tuning with GRPO to encourage models to: (i) improve interpretability by producing structured, tag-based traces with high-level planning that are easier for humans to follow; (ii) enhance faithfulness by explicitly disclosing the decisive information guiding each solution, with consistent cross-section references; and (iii) promote reliability by providing self-assessments of both the derivation's soundness and the confidence of the final answer. We apply ReFIne to the Qwen3 models at multiple scales (1.7B/4B/8B) and evaluate across mathematical benchmarks of varying difficulty. Our experimental results show that ReFIne models generate clearer and better-structured reasoning traces (interpretability +44.0%), more faithfully expose their underlying decision process (faithfulness +18.8%), and offer informative confidence estimates (reliability +42.4%). These findings highlight an overlooked but important direction: reasoning models should be optimized not only for accuracy, but also for broader dimensions of trustworthiness. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Training_Trustworthy_LRM_with_Refine

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 10, 2025 2

Constrained Optimization via Exact Augmented Lagrangian and Randomized Iterative Sketching

We consider solving equality-constrained nonlinear, nonconvex optimization problems. This class of problems appears widely in a variety of applications in machine learning and engineering, ranging from constrained deep neural networks, to optimal control, to PDE-constrained optimization. We develop an adaptive inexact Newton method for this problem class. In each iteration, we solve the Lagrangian Newton system inexactly via a randomized iterative sketching solver, and select a suitable stepsize by performing line search on an exact augmented Lagrangian merit function. The randomized solvers have advantages over deterministic linear system solvers by significantly reducing per-iteration flops complexity and storage cost, when equipped with suitable sketching matrices. Our method adaptively controls the accuracy of the randomized solver and the penalty parameters of the exact augmented Lagrangian, to ensure that the inexact Newton direction is a descent direction of the exact augmented Lagrangian. This allows us to establish a global almost sure convergence. We also show that a unit stepsize is admissible locally, so that our method exhibits a local linear convergence. Furthermore, we prove that the linear convergence can be strengthened to superlinear convergence if we gradually sharpen the adaptive accuracy condition on the randomized solver. We demonstrate the superior performance of our method on benchmark nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set, constrained logistic regression with data from LIBSVM, and a PDE-constrained problem.

  • 4 authors
·
May 28, 2023

Beyond Localization: A Comprehensive Diagnosis of Perspective-Conditioned Spatial Reasoning in MLLMs from Omnidirectional Images

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) show strong visual perception, yet remain limited in reasoning about space under changing viewpoints. We study this challenge as Perspective-Conditioned Spatial Reasoning (PCSR) in 360-degree omnidirectional images, where broad scene coverage reduces ambiguity from partial observations without eliminating the need for viewpoint-dependent inference. To assess this capability, we introduce PCSR-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark of 84,373 question-answer pairs from 2,600 omnidirectional images across 26 indoor environments. PCSR-Bench contains eight tasks spanning foundational perception (e.g., object counting, relative distance, and relative direction) and advanced PCSR, including compositional chains, egocentric rotation, perspective re-anchoring, ego-distortion, and limited-FOV visibility. We evaluate 14 representative MLLMs and observe a substantial perception-reasoning gap: accuracy reaches 57.59% on foundational relative direction, but drops to 13.49% on egocentric rotation, 7.13% on egocentric distortion, and 0.64% on open-ended compositional reasoning. To probe the plasticity of this gap, we conduct an RL-based diagnostic study on a 7B-scale model. Reward shaping improves a matched 7B baseline from 31.10% to 60.06% under a controlled setting, suggesting that PCSR is partial plasticity rather than being fully immutable. Still, the gains are task-selective, sensitive to reward design including both weight allocation and reward formulation, and partially dependent on the evaluation protocol. These results position PCSR as a key bottleneck in current MLLMs and highlight limited but meaningful room for recovery under targeted optimization.

  • 5 authors
·
May 17

CRENER: A Character Relation Enhanced Chinese NER Model

Chinese Named Entity Recognition (NER) is an important task in information extraction, which has a significant impact on downstream applications. Due to the lack of natural separators in Chinese, previous NER methods mostly relied on external dictionaries to enrich the semantic and boundary information of Chinese words. However, such methods may introduce noise that affects the accuracy of named entity recognition. To this end, we propose a character relation enhanced Chinese NER model (CRENER). This model defines four types of tags that reflect the relationships between characters, and proposes a fine-grained modeling of the relationships between characters based on three types of relationships: adjacency relations between characters, relations between characters and tags, and relations between tags, to more accurately identify entity boundaries and improve Chinese NER accuracy. Specifically, we transform the Chinese NER task into a character-character relationship classification task, ensuring the accuracy of entity boundary recognition through joint modeling of relation tags. To enhance the model's ability to understand contextual information, WRENER further constructed an adapted transformer encoder that combines unscaled direction-aware and distance-aware masked self-attention mechanisms. Moreover, a relationship representation enhancement module was constructed to model predefined relationship tags, effectively mining the relationship representations between characters and tags. Experiments conducted on four well-known Chinese NER benchmark datasets have shown that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. The ablation experiment also demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 14, 2024

FireBERT: Hardening BERT-based classifiers against adversarial attack

We present FireBERT, a set of three proof-of-concept NLP classifiers hardened against TextFooler-style word-perturbation by producing diverse alternatives to original samples. In one approach, we co-tune BERT against the training data and synthetic adversarial samples. In a second approach, we generate the synthetic samples at evaluation time through substitution of words and perturbation of embedding vectors. The diversified evaluation results are then combined by voting. A third approach replaces evaluation-time word substitution with perturbation of embedding vectors. We evaluate FireBERT for MNLI and IMDB Movie Review datasets, in the original and on adversarial examples generated by TextFooler. We also test whether TextFooler is less successful in creating new adversarial samples when manipulating FireBERT, compared to working on unhardened classifiers. We show that it is possible to improve the accuracy of BERT-based models in the face of adversarial attacks without significantly reducing the accuracy for regular benchmark samples. We present co-tuning with a synthetic data generator as a highly effective method to protect against 95% of pre-manufactured adversarial samples while maintaining 98% of original benchmark performance. We also demonstrate evaluation-time perturbation as a promising direction for further research, restoring accuracy up to 75% of benchmark performance for pre-made adversarials, and up to 65% (from a baseline of 75% orig. / 12% attack) under active attack by TextFooler.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 10, 2020

Seeing the Forest and the Trees: Query-Aware Tokenizer for Long-Video Multimodal Language Models

Despite the recent advances in the video understanding ability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), long video understanding remains a challenge. One of the main issues is that the number of vision tokens grows linearly with video length, which causes an explosion in attention cost, memory, and latency. To solve this challenge, we present Query-aware Token Selector (QTSplus), a lightweight yet powerful visual token selection module that serves as an information gate between the vision encoder and LLMs. Given a text query and video tokens, QTSplus dynamically selects the most important visual evidence for the input text query by (i) scoring visual tokens via cross-attention, (ii) predicting an instance-specific retention budget based on the complexity of the query, and (iii) selecting Top-n tokens with a differentiable straight-through estimator during training and a hard gate at inference. Furthermore, a small re-encoder preserves temporal order using absolute time information, enabling second-level localization while maintaining global coverage. Integrated into Qwen2.5-VL, QTSplus compresses the vision stream by up to 89\% and reduces end-to-end latency by 28\% on long videos. The evaluation on eight long video understanding benchmarks shows near-parity accuracy overall when compared with the original Qwen models and outperforms the original model by +20.5 and +5.6 points respectively on TempCompass direction and order accuracies. These results show that QTSplus is an effective, general mechanism for scaling MLLMs to real-world long-video scenarios while preserving task-relevant evidence. We will make all code, data, and trained models' weights publicly available.

AlpachinoNLP Alpachino
·
Nov 14, 2025

Perceive, Reflect, and Plan: Designing LLM Agent for Goal-Directed City Navigation without Instructions

This paper considers a scenario in city navigation: an AI agent is provided with language descriptions of the goal location with respect to some well-known landmarks; By only observing the scene around, including recognizing landmarks and road network connections, the agent has to make decisions to navigate to the goal location without instructions. This problem is very challenging, because it requires agent to establish self-position and acquire spatial representation of complex urban environment, where landmarks are often invisible. In the absence of navigation instructions, such abilities are vital for the agent to make high-quality decisions in long-range city navigation. With the emergent reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs), a tempting baseline is to prompt LLMs to "react" on each observation and make decisions accordingly. However, this baseline has very poor performance that the agent often repeatedly visits same locations and make short-sighted, inconsistent decisions. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel agentic workflow featured by its abilities to perceive, reflect and plan. Specifically, we find LLaVA-7B can be fine-tuned to perceive the direction and distance of landmarks with sufficient accuracy for city navigation. Moreover, reflection is achieved through a memory mechanism, where past experiences are stored and can be retrieved with current perception for effective decision argumentation. Planning uses reflection results to produce long-term plans, which can avoid short-sighted decisions in long-range navigation. We show the designed workflow significantly improves navigation ability of the LLM agent compared with the state-of-the-art baselines.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 7, 2024

The Master Key Hypothesis: Unlocking Cross-Model Capability Transfer via Linear Subspace Alignment

We investigate whether post-trained capabilities can be transferred across models without retraining, with a focus on transfer across different model scales. We propose the Master Key Hypothesis, which states that model capabilities correspond to directions in a low-dimensional latent subspace that induce specific behaviors and are transferable across models through linear alignment. Based on this hypothesis, we introduce UNLOCK, a training-free and label-free framework that extracts a capability direction by contrasting activations between capability-present and capability-absent Source variants, aligns it with a Target model through a low-rank linear transformation, and applies it at inference time to elicit the behavior. Experiments on reasoning behaviors, including Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and mathematical reasoning, demonstrate substantial improvements across model scales without training. For example, transferring CoT reasoning from Qwen1.5-14B to Qwen1.5-7B yields an accuracy gain of 12.1% on MATH, and transferring a mathematical reasoning direction from Qwen3-4B-Base to Qwen3-14B-Base improves AGIEval Math accuracy from 61.1% to 71.3%, surpassing the 67.8% achieved by the 14B post-trained model. Our analysis shows that the success of transfer depends on the capabilities learned during pre-training, and that our intervention amplifies latent capabilities by sharpening the output distribution toward successful reasoning trajectories.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 7 2

Polymarket-v1 Database

We introduce the Polymarket-v1 Database: the complete on-chain trade archive of Polymarket's first-generation CTF Exchange on Polygon, spanning 2022-11-21 to 2026-04-28 and covering the full contract lifecycle from first settlement to natural termination. The dataset comprises 1.20 billion trade records across 1.30 million markets with $61 billion in nominal volume. Its defining feature is 100% ground-truth aggressor direction derived from the blockchain settlement layer, a property unavailable in existing prediction market archives, which rely on heuristic inference. We use this truth-aligned archive to benchmark standard microstructure tools and document three findings. First, the tick rule and bulk volume classification achieve near-random aggregate accuracy (49.83% and 50.51%), but this masks a systematic, correctable price-level gradient driven by positive trade direction autocorrelation and concentrated market-making -- two structural features of prediction markets that violate the mean-reversion assumption embedded in classical classifiers. Second, these classification errors propagate into downstream metrics: inferred VPIN diverges substantially from ground-truth VPIN, and OFI estimates are directionally biased, with material consequences for Transaction Cost Analysis. Third, ground-truth microstructure quality predicts forecasting performance in ways that classification-based proxies cannot recover: True VPIN positively predicts Brier scores, while Gibbs spread negatively predicts them -- a selection effect reflecting that high-spread niche markets attract informed specialists rather than noise traders. Replacing ground-truth metrics with classified proxies attenuates both relationships, illustrating that measurement accuracy at the transaction level is a prerequisite for reliable inference about prediction market design and probability calibration.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 7

Every Rollout Counts: Optimal Resource Allocation for Efficient Test-Time Scaling

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) improves the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using additional inference-time computation to explore multiple reasoning paths through search. Yet how to allocate a fixed rollout budget most effectively during search remains underexplored, often resulting in inefficient use of compute at test time. To bridge this gap, we formulate test-time search as a resource allocation problem and derive the optimal allocation strategy that maximizes the probability of obtaining a correct solution under a fixed rollout budget. Within this formulation, we reveal a core limitation of existing search methods: solution-level allocation tends to favor reasoning directions with more candidates, leading to theoretically suboptimal and inefficient use of compute. To address this, we propose Direction-Oriented Resource Allocation (DORA), a provably optimal method that mitigates this bias by decoupling direction quality from candidate count and allocating resources at the direction level. To demonstrate DORA's effectiveness, we conduct extensive experiments on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks including MATH500, AIME2024, and AIME2025. The empirical results show that DORA consistently outperforms strong baselines with comparable computational cost, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy. We hope our findings contribute to a broader understanding of optimal TTS for LLMs.

  • 10 authors
·
Oct 19, 2025

Rethinking Rubric Generation for Improving LLM Judge and Reward Modeling for Open-ended Tasks

Recently, rubrics have been used to guide LLM judges in capturing subjective, nuanced, multi-dimensional human preferences, and have been extended from evaluation to reward signals for reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT). However, rubric generation remains hard to control: rubrics often lack coverage, conflate dimensions, misalign preference direction, and contain redundant or highly correlated criteria, degrading judge accuracy and producing suboptimal rewards during RFT. We propose RRD, a principled framework for rubric refinement built on a recursive decompose-filter cycle. RRD decomposes coarse rubrics into fine-grained, discriminative criteria, expanding coverage while sharpening separation between responses. A complementary filtering mechanism removes misaligned and redundant rubrics, and a correlation-aware weighting scheme prevents over-representing highly correlated criteria, yielding rubric sets that are informative, comprehensive, and non-redundant. Empirically, RRD delivers large, consistent gains across both evaluation and training: it improves preference-judgment accuracy on JudgeBench and PPE for both GPT-4o and Llama3.1-405B judges, achieving top performance in all settings with up to +17.7 points on JudgeBench. When used as the reward source for RFT on WildChat, it yields substantially stronger and more stable learning signals, boosting reward by up to 160% (Qwen3-4B) and 60% (Llama3.1-8B) versus 10-20% for prior rubric baselines, with gains that transfer to HealthBench-Hard and BiGGen Bench. Overall, RRD establishes recursive rubric refinement as a scalable and interpretable foundation for LLM judging and reward modeling in open-ended domains.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 4

Equivariant Differentially Private Deep Learning: Why DP-SGD Needs Sparser Models

Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) limits the amount of private information deep learning models can memorize during training. This is achieved by clipping and adding noise to the model's gradients, and thus networks with more parameters require proportionally stronger perturbation. As a result, large models have difficulties learning useful information, rendering training with DP-SGD exceedingly difficult on more challenging training tasks. Recent research has focused on combating this challenge through training adaptations such as heavy data augmentation and large batch sizes. However, these techniques further increase the computational overhead of DP-SGD and reduce its practical applicability. In this work, we propose using the principle of sparse model design to solve precisely such complex tasks with fewer parameters, higher accuracy, and in less time, thus serving as a promising direction for DP-SGD. We achieve such sparsity by design by introducing equivariant convolutional networks for model training with Differential Privacy. Using equivariant networks, we show that small and efficient architecture design can outperform current state-of-the-art models with substantially lower computational requirements. On CIFAR-10, we achieve an increase of up to 9% in accuracy while reducing the computation time by more than 85%. Our results are a step towards efficient model architectures that make optimal use of their parameters and bridge the privacy-utility gap between private and non-private deep learning for computer vision.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 30, 2023

Learning Spatiotemporal Sensitivity in Video LLMs via Counterfactual Reinforcement Learning

Video large language models (Video LLMs) achieve strong benchmark accuracy, yet often answer video questions through shortcuts such as single-frame cues and language priors rather than by tracking spatiotemporal dynamics. This issue is exacerbated in RL post-training, where correctness-only rewards can further reinforce shortcut policies that obtain high reward without tracking video dynamics. We address this by asking a controlled counterfactual question: if the visual world changed while the question remained fixed, should the answer change or stay the same? Based on this view, we propose Counterfactual Relational Policy Optimization (CRPO), a dual-branch RL framework for improving spatiotemporal sensitivity. CRPO constructs counterfactual videos through horizontal flips and temporal reversals, trains on both original and counterfactual branches, and introduces a Counterfactual Relation Reward (CRR) between their answers. CRR encourages answers to change for dynamic questions and remain unchanged for static questions. This cross-branch constraint makes it difficult for shortcut policies to be consistently rewarded across both branches. To evaluate this property, we introduce DyBench, a paired counterfactual video benchmark with 3,014 videos covering reversible dynamics, moving direction, and event sequence, together with a strict pair-accuracy metric that prevents fixed-answer shortcuts from inflating scores. Experiments show that CRPO outperforms prior RL methods on spatiotemporal-sensitive evaluations while maintaining competitive general video performance. On Qwen3-VL-8B, CRPO improves DyBench P-Acc by +7.7 and TimeBlind I-Acc by +8.2 over the base model, indicating improved spatiotemporal sensitivity rather than stronger reliance on static shortcuts. The project website can be found at https://ddz16.github.io/crpo.github.io/ .

  • 10 authors
·
May 20

Enhancing Worldwide Image Geolocation by Ensembling Satellite-Based Ground-Level Attribute Predictors

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 18, 2024

Zero-Shot Vision-and-Language Navigation with Collision Mitigation in Continuous Environment

We propose the zero-shot Vision-and-Language Navigation with Collision Mitigation (VLN-CM), which takes these considerations. VLN-CM is composed of four modules and predicts the direction and distance of the next movement at each step. We utilize large foundation models for each modules. To select the direction, we use the Attention Spot Predictor (ASP), View Selector (VS), and Progress Monitor (PM). The ASP employs a Large Language Model (e.g. ChatGPT) to split navigation instructions into attention spots, which are objects or scenes at the location to move to (e.g. a yellow door). The VS selects from panorama images provided at 30-degree intervals the one that includes the attention spot, using CLIP similarity. We then choose the angle of the selected image as the direction to move in. The PM uses a rule-based approach to decide which attention spot to focus on next, among multiple spots derived from the instructions. If the similarity between the current attention spot and the visual observations decreases consecutively at each step, the PM determines that the agent has passed the current spot and moves on to the next one. For selecting the distance to move, we employed the Open Map Predictor (OMP). The OMP uses panorama depth information to predict an occupancy mask. We then selected a collision-free distance in the predicted direction based on the occupancy mask. We evaluated our method using the validation data of VLN-CE. Our approach showed better performance than several baseline methods, and the OPM was effective in mitigating collisions for the agent.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 7, 2024

A Multimodal Assistive System for Product Localization and Retrieval for People who are Blind or have Low Vision

Shopping is a routine activity for sighted individuals, yet for people who are blind or have low vision (pBLV), locating and retrieving products in physical environments remains a challenge. This paper presents a multimodal wearable assistive system that integrates object detection with vision-language models to support independent product or item retrieval, with the goal of enhancing users'autonomy and sense of agency. The system operates through three phases: product search, which identifies target products using YOLO-World detection combined with embedding similarity and color histogram matching; product navigation, which provides spatialized sonification and VLM-generated verbal descriptions to guide users toward the target; and product correction, which verifies whether the user has reached the correct product and provides corrective feedback when necessary. Technical evaluation demonstrated promising performance across all modules, with product detection achieving near-perfect accuracy at close range and high accuracy when facing shelves within 1.5 m. VLM-based navigation achieved up to 94.4% accuracy, and correction accuracy exceeded 86% under optimal model configurations. These results demonstrate the system's potential to address the last-meter problem in assistive shopping. Future work will focus on user studies with pBLV participants and integration with multi-scale navigation ecosystems.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 17

Probing the Geometry of Truth: Consistency and Generalization of Truth Directions in LLMs Across Logical Transformations and Question Answering Tasks

Large language models (LLMs) are trained on extensive datasets that encapsulate substantial world knowledge. However, their outputs often include confidently stated inaccuracies. Earlier works suggest that LLMs encode truthfulness as a distinct linear feature, termed the "truth direction", which can classify truthfulness reliably. We address several open questions about the truth direction: (i) whether LLMs universally exhibit consistent truth directions; (ii) whether sophisticated probing techniques are necessary to identify truth directions; and (iii) how the truth direction generalizes across diverse contexts. Our findings reveal that not all LLMs exhibit consistent truth directions, with stronger representations observed in more capable models, particularly in the context of logical negation. Additionally, we demonstrate that truthfulness probes trained on declarative atomic statements can generalize effectively to logical transformations, question-answering tasks, in-context learning, and external knowledge sources. Finally, we explore the practical application of truthfulness probes in selective question-answering, illustrating their potential to improve user trust in LLM outputs. These results advance our understanding of truth directions and provide new insights into the internal representations of LLM beliefs. Our code is public at https://github.com/colored-dye/truthfulness_probe_generalization

  • 7 authors
·
May 31, 2025

An RTK-SLAM Dataset for Absolute Accuracy Evaluation in GNSS-Degraded Environments

RTK-SLAM systems integrate simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with real-time kinematic (RTK) GNSS positioning, promising both relative consistency and globally referenced coordinates for efficient georeferenced surveying. A critical and underappreciated issue is that the standard evaluation metric, Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE), first fits an optimal rigid-body transformation between the estimated trajectory and reference before computing errors. This so-called SE(3) alignment absorbs global drift and systematic errors, making trajectories appear more accurate than they are in practice, and is unsuitable for evaluating the global accuracy of RTK-SLAM. We present a geodetically referenced dataset and evaluation methodology that expose this gap. A key design principle is that the RTK receiver is used solely as a system input, while ground truth is established independently via a geodetic total station. This separation is absent from all existing datasets, where GNSS typically serves as (part of) the ground truth. The dataset is collected with a handheld RTK-SLAM device, comprising two scenes. We evaluate LiDAR-inertial, visual-inertial, and LiDAR-visual-inertial RTK-SLAM systems alongside standalone RTK, reporting direct global accuracy and SE(3)-aligned relative accuracy to make the gap explicit. Results show that SE(3) alignment can underestimate absolute positioning error by up to 76\%. RTK-SLAM achieves centimeter-level absolute accuracy in open-sky conditions and maintains decimeter-level global accuracy indoors, where standalone RTK degrades to tens of meters. The dataset, calibration files, and evaluation scripts are publicly available at https://rtk-slam-dataset.github.io/.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 7

How Transformers Reject Wrong Answers: Rotational Dynamics of Factual Constraint Processing

When a language model is fed a wrong answer, what happens inside the network? Current understanding treats truthfulness as a static property of individual-layer representations-a direction to be probed, a feature to be extracted. Less is known about the dynamics: how internal representations diverge across the full depth of the network when the model processes correct versus incorrect continuations. We introduce forced-completion probing, a method that presents identical queries with known correct and incorrect single-token continuations and tracks five geometric measurements across every layer of four decoder-only models(1.5B-13B parameters). We report three findings. First, correct and incorrect paths diverge through rotation, not rescaling: displacement vectors maintain near-identical magnitudes while their angular separation increases, meaning factual selection is encoded in direction on an approximate hypersphere. Second, the model does not passively fail on incorrect input-it actively suppresses the correct answer, driving internal probability away from the right token. Third, both phenomena are entirely absent below a parameter threshold and emerge at 1.6B, suggesting a phase transition in factual processing capability. These results show that factual constraint processing has a specific geometric character-rotational, not scalar; active, not passive-that is invisible to methods based on single-layer probes or magnitude comparisons.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 24

Non-Uniform Spatial Alignment Errors in sUAS Imagery From Wide-Area Disasters

This work presents the first quantitative study of alignment errors between small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) geospatial imagery and a priori building polygons and finds that alignment errors are non-uniform and irregular. The work also introduces a publicly available dataset of imagery, building polygons, and human-generated and curated adjustments that can be used to evaluate existing strategies for aligning building polygons with sUAS imagery. There are no efforts that have aligned pre-existing spatial data with sUAS imagery, and thus, there is no clear state of practice. However, this effort and analysis show that the translational alignment errors present in this type of data, averaging 82px and an intersection over the union of 0.65, which would induce further errors and biases in downstream machine learning systems unless addressed. This study identifies and analyzes the translational alignment errors of 21,619 building polygons in fifty-one orthomosaic images, covering 16787.2 Acres (26.23 square miles), constructed from sUAS raw imagery from nine wide-area disasters (Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Ida, Hurricane Idalia, Hurricane Laura, the Mayfield Tornado, the Musset Bayou Fire, and the Kilauea Eruption). The analysis finds no uniformity among the angle and distance metrics of the building polygon alignments as they present an average degree variance of 0.4 and an average pixel distance variance of 0.45. This work alerts the sUAS community to the problem of spatial alignment and that a simple linear transform, often used to align satellite imagery, will not be sufficient to align spatial data in sUAS orthomosaic imagery.

  • 6 authors
·
May 10, 2024

EAGOR: Embodied Reasoning in Omni-direction

Omni-directional (360°) cameras provide embodied agents with a holistic view of their surroundings, making them suited for directional reasoning in tasks such as navigation and object search. Existing Vision Language Models (VLMs) project 360° observations to 2D equirectangular projection (ERP) images and process them using architectures designed for perspective images. However, they ignore the spherical nature of 360° observations, where each pixel represents a viewing direction relative to the agent. Consequently, their direction estimates often become inconsistent under camera view transformations caused by agent motion. This limitation is particularly critical for map-free navigation, where the agent must continuously estimate the target direction in its egocentric frame. We propose EAGOR, a training-free, geometry-aware framework for embodied 360° directional reasoning. Instead of predicting target directions as ERP image coordinates, EAGOR formulates directional reasoning as recursive Bayesian estimation directly on the sphere. It maintains a continuous belief over target directions and propagates it equivariantly under agent motion without training the backbone VLMs. To achieve this, we introduce the Spherical Harmonic Belief Field (SH-BF), whose spherical harmonic representation provides a globally defined, rotation-aware basis for directional estimation on the spherical manifold. This formulation eliminates ERP seam discontinuities, latitude distortions, and interpolation errors. We evaluate EAGOR on two benchmark datasets and real-world experiments with a legged robot across directional reasoning tasks. EAGOR consistently outperforms existing methods, achieving average relative gains of +34.4% and +45.6% on HOS and OSR-Bench, respectively, while improving navigation success by +14.6%, reducing step count by 17.7%, and lowering mean angular error by 24.5%.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 6

EdgeGaussians -- 3D Edge Mapping via Gaussian Splatting

With their meaningful geometry and their omnipresence in the 3D world, edges are extremely useful primitives in computer vision. 3D edges comprise of lines and curves, and methods to reconstruct them use either multi-view images or point clouds as input. State-of-the-art image-based methods first learn a 3D edge point cloud then fit 3D edges to it. The edge point cloud is obtained by learning a 3D neural implicit edge field from which the 3D edge points are sampled on a specific level set (0 or 1). However, such methods present two important drawbacks: i) it is not realistic to sample points on exact level sets due to float imprecision and training inaccuracies. Instead, they are sampled within a range of levels so the points do not lie accurately on the 3D edges and require further processing. ii) Such implicit representations are computationally expensive and require long training times. In this paper, we address these two limitations and propose a 3D edge mapping that is simpler, more efficient, and preserves accuracy. Our method learns explicitly the 3D edge points and their edge direction hence bypassing the need for point sampling. It casts a 3D edge point as the center of a 3D Gaussian and the edge direction as the principal axis of the Gaussian. Such a representation has the advantage of being not only geometrically meaningful but also compatible with the efficient training optimization defined in Gaussian Splatting. Results show that the proposed method produces edges as accurate and complete as the state-of-the-art while being an order of magnitude faster. Code is released at https://github.com/kunalchelani/EdgeGaussians.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 19, 2024

Where on Earth? A Vision-Language Benchmark for Probing Model Geolocation Skills Across Scales

Vision-language models (VLMs) have advanced rapidly, yet their capacity for image-grounded geolocation in open-world conditions, a task that is challenging and of demand in real life, has not been comprehensively evaluated. We present EarthWhere, a comprehensive benchmark for VLM image geolocation that evaluates visual recognition, step-by-step reasoning, and evidence use. EarthWhere comprises 810 globally distributed images across two complementary geolocation scales: WhereCountry (i.e., 500 multiple-choice question-answering, with country-level answer and panoramas) and WhereStreet (i.e., 310 fine-grained street-level identification tasks requiring multi-step reasoning with optional web search). For evaluation, we adopt the final-prediction metrics: location accuracies within k km (Acc@k) for coordinates and hierarchical path scores for textual localization. Beyond this, we propose to explicitly score intermediate reasoning chains using human-verified key visual clues and a Shapley-reweighted thinking score that attributes credit to each clue's marginal contribution. We benchmark 13 state-of-the-art VLMs with web searching tools on our EarthWhere and report different types of final answer accuracies as well as the calibrated model thinking scores. Overall, Gemini-2.5-Pro achieves the best average accuracy at 56.32%, while the strongest open-weight model, GLM-4.5V, reaches 34.71%. We reveal that web search and reasoning do not guarantee improved performance when visual clues are limited, and models exhibit regional biases, achieving up to 42.7% higher scores in certain areas than others. These findings highlight not only the promise but also the persistent challenges of models to mitigate bias and achieve robust, fine-grained localization. We open-source our benchmark at https://github.com/UCSC-VLAA/EarthWhere.

  • 12 authors
·
Oct 12, 2025

Hilti-Trimble-Oxford Dataset: 360 Visual-Inertial Benchmark with Floor Plan Priors for SLAM and Localization

Automated progress monitoring on construction sites is an active area of research and development. Robot and human-carried mapping systems have been developed to build 3D maps of building and infrastructure projects. While LiDAR-based mapping systems achieve high accuracy, the cost of LiDAR can be prohibitive. Consumer-grade cameras with wide field of view ("360 cameras") combined with embedded inertial measurement units (IMUs) provide a cost-effective alternative. To support change detection and progress monitoring, highly accurate visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) and floor plan-referenced localization systems are required. In this paper we present a high-quality dataset collected at an active construction site, which captures realistic challenges such as variable lighting conditions, moving workers, fast motions, and repetitive structures. The dataset offers thirty visual-inertial sequences recorded across seven floors over an eight-month period of the construction project. Ground truth trajectories were collected using a high quality LiDAR-inertial SLAM system rigidly attached to the 360 camera. Additionally, we report the results of an open research challenge evaluating the best visual SLAM and localization systems from around the world. The Challenge attracted substantially higher participation in SLAM, with 62 teams compared to 22 in floor-plan-referenced localization, reflecting the broader maturity of SLAM methods. The higher errors in localization further highlight the difficulty of this task in construction and point to the need for continued research, which this dataset is intended to support. The dataset and the benchmark are publicly available at: https://hilti-trimble-challenge.com/dataset-2026.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 7

Global-Liar: Factuality of LLMs over Time and Geographic Regions

The increasing reliance on AI-driven solutions, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) like the GPT series, for information retrieval highlights the critical need for their factuality and fairness, especially amidst the rampant spread of misinformation and disinformation online. Our study evaluates the factual accuracy, stability, and biases in widely adopted GPT models, including GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, contributing to reliability and integrity of AI-mediated information dissemination. We introduce 'Global-Liar,' a dataset uniquely balanced in terms of geographic and temporal representation, facilitating a more nuanced evaluation of LLM biases. Our analysis reveals that newer iterations of GPT models do not always equate to improved performance. Notably, the GPT-4 version from March demonstrates higher factual accuracy than its subsequent June release. Furthermore, a concerning bias is observed, privileging statements from the Global North over the Global South, thus potentially exacerbating existing informational inequities. Regions such as Africa and the Middle East are at a disadvantage, with much lower factual accuracy. The performance fluctuations over time suggest that model updates may not consistently benefit all regions equally. Our study also offers insights into the impact of various LLM configuration settings, such as binary decision forcing, model re-runs and temperature, on model's factuality. Models constrained to binary (true/false) choices exhibit reduced factuality compared to those allowing an 'unclear' option. Single inference at a low temperature setting matches the reliability of majority voting across various configurations. The insights gained highlight the need for culturally diverse and geographically inclusive model training and evaluation. This approach is key to achieving global equity in technology, distributing AI benefits fairly worldwide.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 30, 2024

BoundMPC: Cartesian Trajectory Planning with Error Bounds based on Model Predictive Control in the Joint Space

This work presents a novel online model-predictive trajectory planner for robotic manipulators called BoundMPC. This planner allows the collision-free following of Cartesian reference paths in the end-effector's position and orientation, including via-points, within desired asymmetric bounds of the orthogonal path error. The path parameter synchronizes the position and orientation reference paths. The decomposition of the path error into the tangential direction, describing the path progress, and the orthogonal direction, which represents the deviation from the path, is well known for the position from the path-following control in the literature. This paper extends this idea to the orientation by utilizing the Lie theory of rotations. Moreover, the orthogonal error plane is further decomposed into basis directions to define asymmetric Cartesian error bounds easily. Using piecewise linear position and orientation reference paths with via-points is computationally very efficient and allows replanning the pose trajectories during the robot's motion. This feature makes it possible to use this planner for dynamically changing environments and varying goals. The flexibility and performance of BoundMPC are experimentally demonstrated by two scenarios on a 7-DoF Kuka LBR iiwa 14 R820 robot. The first scenario shows the transfer of a larger object from a start to a goal pose through a confined space where the object must be tilted. The second scenario deals with grasping an object from a table where the grasping point changes during the robot's motion, and collisions with other obstacles in the scene must be avoided.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 10, 2024

The Cylindrical Representation Hypothesis for Language Model Steering

Steering is a widely used technique for controlling large language models, yet its effects are often unstable and hard to predict. Existing theoretical accounts are largely based on the Linear Representation Hypothesis (LRH). While LRH assumes that concepts can be orthogonalized for lossless control, this idealized mapping fails in real representations and cannot account for the observed unpredictability of steering. By relaxing LRH's orthogonality assumption while preserving linear representations, we show that overlapping concept contributions naturally yield a sample-specific axis-orthogonal structure. We formalize this as the Cylindrical Representation Hypothesis (CRH). In CRH, a central axis captures the main difference between concept absence and presence and drives concept generation. A surrounding normal plane controls steering sensitivity by determining how easily the axis can activate the target concept. Within this plane, only specific sensitive sectors strongly facilitate concept activation, while other sectors can suppress or delay it. While the surrounding normal plane can be reliably identified from difference vectors, the sensitive sector cannot, introducing intrinsic uncertainty at the sector level. This uncertainty provides a principled explanation for why steering outcomes often fluctuate even when using well-aligned directions. Our experiments verify the existence of the cylindrical structure and demonstrate that CRH provides a valid and practical way to interpret model steering behavior in real settings: https://github.com/mbzuai-nlp/CRH.

  • 10 authors
·
May 2

Evaluating Commercial AI Chatbots as News Intermediaries

AI chatbots are rapidly shaping how people encounter the news, yet no prior study has systematically measured how accurately these systems, with their proprietary search integrations and retrieval-synthesis pipelines, handle emerging facts across languages and regions. We present a 14-day (February 9-22, 2026) evaluation of six AI chatbots (Gemini 3 Flash and Pro, Grok 4, Claude 4.5 Sonnet, GPT-5 and GPT-4o mini) on 2,100 factual questions derived from same-day BBC News reporting across six regional services (US & Canada, Arabic, Afrique, Hindi, Russian, Turkish). The best systems achieve over 90% multiple-choice accuracy on questions about events reported hours earlier. The same systems, however, lose 11-13% under free-response evaluation, and 16-17% across the cohort. We further characterize three failure patterns. First, every model achieves its lowest accuracy on Hindi (79% vs. 89-91% elsewhere) and citations indicate an Anglophone retrieval bias (e.g., models answering Hindi queries cite English Wikipedia more than any Hindi outlet). Second, retrieval, not reasoning, failures drive over 70% of all errors. When models retrieve a correct source, they often extract the correct answer; the problem is to land on the right source in the first place. Third, models achieving 88-96% accuracy on well-formed questions drop to 19-70% when questions contain subtle false premises, with the most vulnerable model accepting fabricated facts 64% of the time. We also identify a detection-accuracy paradox: the best false-premise detector ranks second in adversarial accuracy (abstention rate), while a weaker detector ranks first, showing that premise detection and answer recovery are partially independent capabilities. Overall, these suggest that high accuracy can mask systematic regional inequity, near-total dependence on retrieval infrastructure, and vulnerability to imperfect queries real users pose.

  • 8 authors
·
May 20

Bounding Box Stability against Feature Dropout Reflects Detector Generalization across Environments

Bounding boxes uniquely characterize object detection, where a good detector gives accurate bounding boxes of categories of interest. However, in the real-world where test ground truths are not provided, it is non-trivial to find out whether bounding boxes are accurate, thus preventing us from assessing the detector generalization ability. In this work, we find under feature map dropout, good detectors tend to output bounding boxes whose locations do not change much, while bounding boxes of poor detectors will undergo noticeable position changes. We compute the box stability score (BoS score) to reflect this stability. Specifically, given an image, we compute a normal set of bounding boxes and a second set after feature map dropout. To obtain BoS score, we use bipartite matching to find the corresponding boxes between the two sets and compute the average Intersection over Union (IoU) across the entire test set. We contribute to finding that BoS score has a strong, positive correlation with detection accuracy measured by mean average precision (mAP) under various test environments. This relationship allows us to predict the accuracy of detectors on various real-world test sets without accessing test ground truths, verified on canonical detection tasks such as vehicle detection and pedestrian detection. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YangYangGirl/BoS.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 20, 2024

Analyzing Data Quality and Decay in Mega-Constellations: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13, 2025

IntTravel: A Real-World Dataset and Generative Framework for Integrated Multi-Task Travel Recommendation

Next Point of Interest (POI) recommendation is essential for modern mobility and location-based services. To provide a smooth user experience, models must understand several components of a journey holistically: "when to depart", "how to travel", "where to go", and "what needs arise via the route". However, current research is limited by fragmented datasets that focus merely on next POI recommendation ("where to go"), neglecting the departure time, travel mode, and situational requirements along the journey. Furthermore, the limited scale of these datasets impedes accurate evaluation of performance. To bridge this gap, we introduce IntTravel, the first large-scale public dataset for integrated travel recommendation, including 4.1 billion interactions from 163 million users with 7.3 million POIs. Built upon this dataset, we introduce an end-to-end, decoder-only generative framework for multi-task recommendation. It incorporates information preservation, selection, and factorization to balance task collaboration with specialized differentiation, yielding substantial performance gains. The framework's generalizability is highlighted by its state-of-the-art performance across both IntTravel dataset and an additional non-travel benchmark. IntTravel has been successfully deployed on Amap serving hundreds of millions of users, leading to a 1.09% increase in CTR. IntTravel is available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/IntTravel.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 12

AID4AD: Aerial Image Data for Automated Driving Perception

This work investigates the integration of spatially aligned aerial imagery into perception tasks for automated vehicles (AVs). As a central contribution, we present AID4AD, a publicly available dataset that augments the nuScenes dataset with high-resolution aerial imagery precisely aligned to its local coordinate system. The alignment is performed using SLAM-based point cloud maps provided by nuScenes, establishing a direct link between aerial data and nuScenes local coordinate system. To ensure spatial fidelity, we propose an alignment workflow that corrects for localization and projection distortions. A manual quality control process further refines the dataset by identifying a set of high-quality alignments, which we publish as ground truth to support future research on automated registration. We demonstrate the practical value of AID4AD in two representative tasks: in online map construction, aerial imagery serves as a complementary input that improves the mapping process; in motion prediction, it functions as a structured environmental representation that replaces high-definition maps. Experiments show that aerial imagery leads to a 15-23% improvement in map construction accuracy and a 2% gain in trajectory prediction performance. These results highlight the potential of aerial imagery as a scalable and adaptable source of environmental context in automated vehicle systems, particularly in scenarios where high-definition maps are unavailable, outdated, or costly to maintain. AID4AD, along with evaluation code and pretrained models, is publicly released to foster further research in this direction: https://github.com/DriverlessMobility/AID4AD.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 4, 2025

The Curious Case of Factual (Mis)Alignment between LLMs' Short- and Long-Form Answers

Large language models (LLMs) can correctly answer "When was Einstein born?" yet fail to provide the same date when writing about Einstein's life revealing a fundamental inconsistency in how models access factual knowledge across task complexities. While models display impressive accuracy on factual question-answering benchmarks, the reliability gap between simple and complex queries remains poorly understood, eroding their trustworthiness. In this work, we introduce Short-Long Form Alignment for Factual Question Answering (SLAQ), a controlled evaluation framework that compares LLMs' answers to the same factual questions asked (a) in isolation (short) vs. (b) integrated into complex queries (long). Looking at 16 LLMs across 600 queries, we find a systematic misalignment of answers to the corresponding short and long queries. We further uncover position-dependent accuracy loss and momentum effects where consecutive correct or incorrect answers create self-reinforcing patterns. Through mechanistic analysis, we find that aligned facts activate overlapping model internals, and that metrics based on mechanistic similarity can predict short-long answer alignment with up to 78% accuracy. Our work establishes factual consistency over query complexity as an important aspect of LLMs' trustworthiness and challenges current evaluation practices, which implicitly assume that good performance for simple factual queries implies reliability in more complex knowledge-seeking tasks too.

WueNLP WüNLP
·
Oct 13, 2025 2

Revision of the Phenomenological Characteristics of the Algol-Type Stars Using the NAV Algorithm

Phenomenological characteristics of the sample of the Algol-type stars are revised using a recently developed NAV ("New Algol Variable") algorithm (2012Ap.....55..536A, 2012arXiv 1212.6707A) and compared to that obtained using common methods of Trigonometric Polynomial Fit (TP) or local Algebraic Polynomial (A) fit of a fixed or (alternately) statistically optimal degree (1994OAP.....7...49A, 2003ASPC..292..391A). The computer program NAV is introduced, which allows to determine the best fit with 7 "linear" and 5 "non-linear" parameters and their error estimates. The number of parameters is much smaller than for the TP fit (typically 20-40, depending on the width of the eclipse, and is much smaller (5-20) for the W UMa and beta Lyrae - type stars. This causes more smooth approximation taking into account the reflection and ellipsoidal effects (TP2) and generally different shapes of the primary and secondary eclipses. An application of the method to two-color CCD photometry to the recently discovered eclipsing variable 2MASS J18024395 + 4003309 = VSX J180243.9 +400331 (2015JASS...32..101A) allowed to make estimates of the physical parameters of the binary system based on the phenomenological parameters of the light curve. The phenomenological parameters of the light curves were determined for the sample of newly discovered EA and EW - type stars (VSX J223429.3+552903, VSX J223421.4+553013, VSX J223416.2+553424, US-NO-B1.0 1347-0483658, UCAC3-191-085589, VSX J180755.6+074711= UCAC3 196-166827). Despite we have used original observations published by the discoverers, the accuracy estimates of the period using the NAV method are typically better than the original ones.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 30, 2015

Rank-DETR for High Quality Object Detection

Modern detection transformers (DETRs) use a set of object queries to predict a list of bounding boxes, sort them by their classification confidence scores, and select the top-ranked predictions as the final detection results for the given input image. A highly performant object detector requires accurate ranking for the bounding box predictions. For DETR-based detectors, the top-ranked bounding boxes suffer from less accurate localization quality due to the misalignment between classification scores and localization accuracy, thus impeding the construction of high-quality detectors. In this work, we introduce a simple and highly performant DETR-based object detector by proposing a series of rank-oriented designs, combinedly called Rank-DETR. Our key contributions include: (i) a rank-oriented architecture design that can prompt positive predictions and suppress the negative ones to ensure lower false positive rates, as well as (ii) a rank-oriented loss function and matching cost design that prioritizes predictions of more accurate localization accuracy during ranking to boost the AP under high IoU thresholds. We apply our method to improve the recent SOTA methods (e.g., H-DETR and DINO-DETR) and report strong COCO object detection results when using different backbones such as ResNet-50, Swin-T, and Swin-L, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/Rank-DETR.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 13, 2023