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Oct 16

Cognitively Inspired Energy-Based World Models

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 13, 2024 7

PulseDL-II: A System-on-Chip Neural Network Accelerator for Timing and Energy Extraction of Nuclear Detector Signals

Front-end electronics equipped with high-speed digitizers are being used and proposed for future nuclear detectors. Recent literature reveals that deep learning models, especially one-dimensional convolutional neural networks, are promising when dealing with digital signals from nuclear detectors. Simulations and experiments demonstrate the satisfactory accuracy and additional benefits of neural networks in this area. However, specific hardware accelerating such models for online operations still needs to be studied. In this work, we introduce PulseDL-II, a system-on-chip (SoC) specially designed for applications of event feature (time, energy, etc.) extraction from pulses with deep learning. Based on the previous version, PulseDL-II incorporates a RISC CPU into the system structure for better functional flexibility and integrity. The neural network accelerator in the SoC adopts a three-level (arithmetic unit, processing element, neural network) hierarchical architecture and facilitates parameter optimization of the digital design. Furthermore, we devise a quantization scheme compatible with deep learning frameworks (e.g., TensorFlow) within a selected subset of layer types. We validate the correct operations of PulseDL-II on field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) alone and with an experimental setup comprising a direct digital synthesis (DDS) and analog-to-digital converters (ADC). The proposed system achieved 60 ps time resolution and 0.40% energy resolution at signal to noise ratio (SNR) of 47.4 dB.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 2, 2022

SysLLMatic: Large Language Models are Software System Optimizers

Automatic software system optimization can improve software speed, reduce operating costs, and save energy. Traditional approaches to optimization rely on manual tuning and compiler heuristics, limiting their ability to generalize across diverse codebases and system contexts. Recent methods using Large Language Models (LLMs) offer automation to address these limitations, but often fail to scale to the complexity of real-world software systems and applications. We present SysLLMatic, a system that integrates LLMs with profiling-guided feedback and system performance insights to automatically optimize software code. We evaluate it on three benchmark suites: HumanEval_CPP (competitive programming in C++), SciMark2 (scientific kernels in Java), and DaCapoBench (large-scale software systems in Java). Results show that SysLLMatic can improve system performance, including latency, throughput, energy efficiency, memory usage, and CPU utilization. It consistently outperforms state-of-the-art LLM baselines on microbenchmarks. On large-scale application codes, it surpasses traditional compiler optimizations, achieving average relative improvements of 1.85x in latency and 2.24x in throughput. Our findings demonstrate that LLMs, guided by principled systems thinking and appropriate performance diagnostics, can serve as viable software system optimizers. We further identify limitations of our approach and the challenges involved in handling complex applications. This work provides a foundation for generating optimized code across various languages, benchmarks, and program sizes in a principled manner.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 1, 2025

Robust Binding Energy Distribution Sampling on Amorphous Solid Water Models. Method testing and validation with NH3, CO and CH4

This work aims to develop a method based on a structurally reliable ice model and a statistically and physico-chemically robust approach for BE distribution inference, with the aim to be applicable to various relevant interstellar species. A multiscale computational approach is presented, with a Molecular Dynamics (MD) Heat & Quench protocol for the amorphous water ice model, and an ONIOM(B3LYP-D3(BJ)/6-311+G**:GFN2-xtb) scheme for the BE inference, with a prime emphasis onto the BE/real system size convergence. The sampling of the binding configurations is twofold, exploring both regularly spaced binding sites, as well as various adsorbate-to-substrate orientations on each locally distinct site. This second source of BE diversity accounts for the local roughness of the potential energy landscape of the substrate. Three different adsorbate test cases are considered, i.e. NH3, CO and CH4, owing to their significance in dust icy mantles, and their distinct binding behavior with water ices. The BE distributions for NH3, CO and CH4 have been inferred, with converged statistics. The distribution for NH3 is better represented by a double Gaussian component profile. Three starting adsorbate orientations per site are required to reach convergence for both Gaussian components of NH3, while 2 orientations are sufficient for CO, and one unique for CH4 (symmetric). Further geometrical and molecular surrounding insights have been provided. These results encompass previously reported results.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 25, 2025

Energy-Based Transformers are Scalable Learners and Thinkers

Inference-time computation techniques, analogous to human System 2 Thinking, have recently become popular for improving model performances. However, most existing approaches suffer from several limitations: they are modality-specific (e.g., working only in text), problem-specific (e.g., verifiable domains like math and coding), or require additional supervision/training on top of unsupervised pretraining (e.g., verifiers or verifiable rewards). In this paper, we ask the question "Is it possible to generalize these System 2 Thinking approaches, and develop models that learn to think solely from unsupervised learning?" Interestingly, we find the answer is yes, by learning to explicitly verify the compatibility between inputs and candidate-predictions, and then re-framing prediction problems as optimization with respect to this verifier. Specifically, we train Energy-Based Transformers (EBTs) -- a new class of Energy-Based Models (EBMs) -- to assign an energy value to every input and candidate-prediction pair, enabling predictions through gradient descent-based energy minimization until convergence. Across both discrete (text) and continuous (visual) modalities, we find EBTs scale faster than the dominant Transformer++ approach during training, achieving an up to 35% higher scaling rate with respect to data, batch size, parameters, FLOPs, and depth. During inference, EBTs improve performance with System 2 Thinking by 29% more than the Transformer++ on language tasks, and EBTs outperform Diffusion Transformers on image denoising while using fewer forward passes. Further, we find that EBTs achieve better results than existing models on most downstream tasks given the same or worse pretraining performance, suggesting that EBTs generalize better than existing approaches. Consequently, EBTs are a promising new paradigm for scaling both the learning and thinking capabilities of models.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 2, 2025 26

A Safe and Data-efficient Model-based Reinforcement Learning System for HVAC Control

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) has been widely studied for Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) control in buildings. One of the critical challenges is the large amount of data required to effectively train neural networks for modeling building dynamics. This paper presents CLUE, an MBRL system for HVAC control in buildings. CLUE optimizes HVAC operations by integrating a Gaussian Process (GP) model to model building dynamics with uncertainty awareness. CLUE utilizes GP to predict state transitions as Gaussian distributions, effectively capturing prediction uncertainty and enhancing decision-making under sparse data conditions. Our approach employs a meta-kernel learning technique to efficiently set GP kernel hyperparameters using domain knowledge from diverse buildings. This drastically reduces the data requirements typically associated with GP models in HVAC applications. Additionally, CLUE incorporates these uncertainty estimates into a Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) algorithm, enabling the selection of safe, energy-efficient control actions. This uncertainty-aware control strategy evaluates and selects action trajectories based on their predicted impact on energy consumption and human comfort, optimizing operations even under uncertain conditions. Extensive simulations in a five-zone office building demonstrate that CLUE reduces the required training data from hundreds of days to just seven while maintaining robust control performance. It reduces comfort violations by an average of 12.07% compared to existing MBRL methods, without compromising on energy efficiency.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 4, 2024

Xiwu: A Basis Flexible and Learnable LLM for High Energy Physics

Large Language Models (LLMs) are undergoing a period of rapid updates and changes, with state-of-the-art (SOTA) model frequently being replaced. When applying LLMs to a specific scientific field, it's challenging to acquire unique domain knowledge while keeping the model itself advanced. To address this challenge, a sophisticated large language model system named as Xiwu has been developed, allowing you switch between the most advanced foundation models and quickly teach the model domain knowledge. In this work, we will report on the best practices for applying LLMs in the field of high-energy physics (HEP), including: a seed fission technology is proposed and some data collection and cleaning tools are developed to quickly obtain domain AI-Ready dataset; a just-in-time learning system is implemented based on the vector store technology; an on-the-fly fine-tuning system has been developed to facilitate rapid training under a specified foundation model. The results show that Xiwu can smoothly switch between foundation models such as LLaMA, Vicuna, ChatGLM and Grok-1. The trained Xiwu model is significantly outperformed the benchmark model on the HEP knowledge question-and-answering and code generation. This strategy significantly enhances the potential for growth of our model's performance, with the hope of surpassing GPT-4 as it evolves with the development of open-source models. This work provides a customized LLM for the field of HEP, while also offering references for applying LLM to other fields, the corresponding codes are available on Github.

  • 13 authors
·
Apr 8, 2024

MoE$^2$: Optimizing Collaborative Inference for Edge Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of natural language processing tasks. Exploiting the heterogeneous capabilities of edge LLMs is crucial for diverse emerging applications, as it enables greater cost-effectiveness and reduced latency. In this work, we introduce Mixture-of-Edge-Experts (MoE^2), a novel collaborative inference framework for edge LLMs. We formulate the joint gating and expert selection problem to optimize inference performance under energy and latency constraints. Unlike conventional MoE problems, LLM expert selection is significantly more challenging due to the combinatorial nature and the heterogeneity of edge LLMs across various attributes. To this end, we propose a two-level expert selection mechanism through which we uncover an optimality-preserving property of gating parameters across expert selections. This property enables the decomposition of the training and selection processes, significantly reducing complexity. Furthermore, we leverage the objective's monotonicity and design a discrete monotonic optimization algorithm for optimal expert selection. We implement edge servers with NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orins and NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPUs, and perform extensive experiments. Our results validate that performance improvements of various LLM models and show that our MoE^2 method can achieve optimal trade-offs among different delay and energy budgets, and outperforms baselines under various system resource constraints.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 16, 2025

Beyond Efficiency: A Systematic Survey of Resource-Efficient Large Language Models

The burgeoning field of Large Language Models (LLMs), exemplified by sophisticated models like OpenAI's ChatGPT, represents a significant advancement in artificial intelligence. These models, however, bring forth substantial challenges in the high consumption of computational, memory, energy, and financial resources, especially in environments with limited resource capabilities. This survey aims to systematically address these challenges by reviewing a broad spectrum of techniques designed to enhance the resource efficiency of LLMs. We categorize methods based on their optimization focus: computational, memory, energy, financial, and network resources and their applicability across various stages of an LLM's lifecycle, including architecture design, pretraining, finetuning, and system design. Additionally, the survey introduces a nuanced categorization of resource efficiency techniques by their specific resource types, which uncovers the intricate relationships and mappings between various resources and corresponding optimization techniques. A standardized set of evaluation metrics and datasets is also presented to facilitate consistent and fair comparisons across different models and techniques. By offering a comprehensive overview of the current sota and identifying open research avenues, this survey serves as a foundational reference for researchers and practitioners, aiding them in developing more sustainable and efficient LLMs in a rapidly evolving landscape.

  • 13 authors
·
Dec 31, 2023

Knowledge Distillation with Adapted Weight

Although large models have shown a strong capacity to solve large-scale problems in many areas including natural language and computer vision, their voluminous parameters are hard to deploy in a real-time system due to computational and energy constraints. Addressing this, knowledge distillation through Teacher-Student architecture offers a sustainable pathway to compress the knowledge of large models into more manageable sizes without significantly compromising performance. To enhance the robustness and interpretability of this framework, it is critical to understand how individual training data impact model performance, which is an area that remains underexplored. We propose the Knowledge Distillation with Adaptive Influence Weight (KD-AIF) framework which leverages influence functions from robust statistics to assign weights to training data, grounded in the four key SAFE principles: Sustainability, Accuracy, Fairness, and Explainability. This novel approach not only optimizes distillation but also increases transparency by revealing the significance of different data. The exploration of various update mechanisms within the KD-AIF framework further elucidates its potential to significantly improve learning efficiency and generalization in student models, marking a step toward more explainable and deployable Large Models. KD-AIF is effective in knowledge distillation while also showing exceptional performance in semi-supervised learning with outperforms existing baselines and methods in multiple benchmarks (CIFAR-100, CIFAR-10-4k, SVHN-1k, and GLUE).

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 5, 2025

Operator Learning for Power Systems Simulation

Time domain simulation, i.e., modeling the system's evolution over time, is a crucial tool for studying and enhancing power system stability and dynamic performance. However, these simulations become computationally intractable for renewable-penetrated grids, due to the small simulation time step required to capture renewable energy resources' ultra-fast dynamic phenomena in the range of 1-50 microseconds. This creates a critical need for solutions that are both fast and scalable, posing a major barrier for the stable integration of renewable energy resources and thus climate change mitigation. This paper explores operator learning, a family of machine learning methods that learn mappings between functions, as a surrogate model for these costly simulations. The paper investigates, for the first time, the fundamental concept of simulation time step-invariance, which enables models trained on coarse time steps to generalize to fine-resolution dynamics. Three operator learning methods are benchmarked on a simple test system that, while not incorporating practical complexities of renewable-penetrated grids, serves as a first proof-of-concept to demonstrate the viability of time step-invariance. Models are evaluated on (i) zero-shot super-resolution, where training is performed on a coarse simulation time step and inference is performed at super-resolution, and (ii) generalization between stable and unstable dynamic regimes. This work addresses a key challenge in the integration of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change by benchmarking operator learning methods to model physical systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 8, 2025

An inorganic ABX3 perovskite materials dataset for target property prediction and classification using machine learning

The reliability with Machine Learning (ML) techniques in novel materials discovery often depend on the quality of the dataset, in addition to the relevant features used in describing the material. In this regard, the current study presents and validates a newly processed materials dataset that can be utilized for benchmark ML analysis, as it relates to the prediction and classification of deterministic target properties. Originally, the dataset was extracted from the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD) and contains a robust 16,323 samples of ABX3 inorganic perovskite structures. The dataset is tabular in form and is preprocessed to include sixty-one generalized input features that broadly describes the physicochemical, stability/geometrical, and Density Functional Theory (DFT) target properties associated with the elemental ionic sites in a three-dimensional ABX3 polyhedral. For validation, four different ML models are employed to predict three distinctive target properties, namely: formation energy, energy band gap, and crystal system. On experimentation, the best accuracy measurements are reported at 0.013 eV/atom MAE, 0.216 eV MAE, and 85% F1, corresponding to the formation energy prediction, band gap prediction and crystal system multi-classification, respectively. Moreover, the realized results are compared with previous literature and as such, affirms the resourcefulness of the current dataset for future benchmark materials analysis via ML techniques. The preprocessed dataset and source codes are openly available to download from github.com/chenebuah/ML_abx3_dataset.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 18, 2023

WaferLLM: Large Language Model Inference at Wafer Scale

Emerging AI accelerators increasingly adopt wafer-scale manufacturing technologies, integrating hundreds of thousands of AI cores in a mesh architecture with large distributed on-chip memory (tens of GB in total) and ultra-high on-chip memory bandwidth (tens of PB/s). However, current LLM inference systems, optimized for shared memory architectures like GPUs, fail to exploit these accelerators fully. We introduce WaferLLM, the first wafer-scale LLM inference system. WaferLLM is guided by a novel PLMR model (pronounced as "Plummer") that captures the unique hardware characteristics of wafer-scale architectures. Leveraging this model, WaferLLM pioneers wafer-scale LLM parallelism, optimizing the utilization of hundreds of thousands of on-chip cores. It also introduces MeshGEMM and MeshGEMV, the first GEMM and GEMV implementations designed to scale effectively on wafer-scale accelerators. Evaluations show that WaferLLM achieves up to 200times higher accelerator utilization than state-of-the-art methods. Leveraging a wafer-scale accelerator (Cerebras WSE2), WaferLLM delivers GEMV operations 606times faster and 16times more energy-efficient than on an NVIDIA A100 GPU. For full LLM inference, WaferLLM achieves 10-20times speedups over A100 GPU clusters running SGLang and vLLM. These advantages are expected to grow as wafer-scale AI models, software, and hardware continue to mature. WaferLLM is open-sourced at https://github.com/MeshInfra/WaferLLM.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025

Empowering 1000 tokens/second on-device LLM prefilling with mllm-NPU

On-device large language models (LLMs) are catalyzing novel mobile applications such as UI task automation and personalized email auto-reply, without giving away users' private data. However, on-device LLMs still suffer from unacceptably long inference latency, especially the time to first token (prefill stage) due to the need of long context for accurate, personalized content generation, as well as the lack of parallel computing capacity of mobile CPU/GPU. To enable practical on-device LLM, we present mllm-NPU, the first-of-its-kind LLM inference system that efficiently leverages on-device Neural Processing Unit (NPU) offloading. Essentially, mllm-NPU is an algorithm-system co-design that tackles a few semantic gaps between the LLM architecture and contemporary NPU design. Specifically, it re-constructs the prompt and model in three levels: (1) At prompt level, it divides variable-length prompts into multiple fixed-sized chunks while maintaining data dependencies; (2) At tensor level, it identifies and extracts significant outliers to run on the CPU/GPU in parallel with minimal overhead; (3) At block level, it schedules Transformer blocks in an out-of-order manner to the CPU/GPU and NPU based on their hardware affinity and sensitivity to accuracy. Compared to competitive baselines, mllm-NPU achieves 22.4x faster prefill speed and 30.7x energy savings on average, and up to 32.8x speedup in an end-to-end real-world application. For the first time, mllm-NPU achieves more than 1,000 tokens/sec prefilling for a billion-sized model (Qwen1.5-1.8B), paving the way towards practical on-device LLM.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 8, 2024

Operational Control of a Multi-energy District Heating System: Comparison of Model-Predictive Control and Rule-Based Control

This study focuses on operational control strategies for a multi-energy District Heating Network (DHN). Two control strategies are investigated and compared: (i) a reactive rule-based control (RBC) and (ii) a model predictive control (MPC). For the purpose of the study a small scale district heating network is modelled using Modelica. The production plant combines a heat pump, a gas boiler and a thermal solar field on the production side with a storage tank for flexibility purposes. On the consumption side, the virtual buildings are aggregated into a single consumer. We use our co-simulation and control platform, called Pegase, to implement the studied strategies. For both strategies the goal is to meet the consumers' demand while satisfying technical constraints. In addition MPC has the objective to minimize the operational costs, taking into account variable electricity prices and availability of solar thermal resource. Different scenarios are also defined and compared to study the effect of the heat plant sizing and forecasting error. The operational cost is reduced when switching from RBC to a MPC. As can be expected, MPC is more efficient when dealing with variable energy costs, intermittent solar energy and storage capabilities. This study also demonstrates how our tools enable an easy coupling of Modelica-based simulation with various control strategies. It especially supports the implementation and validation of complex MPC strategies in an efficient way, and yearly simulations are performed within 20 minutes.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 17, 2025

Efficient MPC-Based Energy Management System for Secure and Cost-Effective Microgrid Operations

Model predictive control (MPC)-based energy management systems (EMS) are essential for ensuring optimal, secure, and stable operation in microgrids with high penetrations of distributed energy resources. However, due to the high computational cost for the decision-making, the conventional MPC-based EMS typically adopts a simplified integrated-bus power balance model. While this simplification is effective for small networks, large-scale systems require a more detailed branch flow model to account for the increased impact of grid power losses and security constraints. This work proposes an efficient and reliable MPC-based EMS that incorporates power-loss effects and grid-security constraints. %, while adaptively shaping the battery power profile in response to online renewable inputs, achieving reduced operational costs. It enhances system reliability, reduces operational costs, and shows strong potential for online implementation due to its reduced computational effort. Specifically, a second-order cone program (SOCP) branch flow relaxation is integrated into the constraint set, yielding a convex formulation that guarantees globally optimal solutions with high computational efficiency. Owing to the radial topology of the microgrid, this relaxation is practically tight, ensuring equivalence to the original problem. Building on this foundation, an online demand response (DR) module is designed to further reduce the operation cost through peak shaving. To the best of our knowledge, no prior MPC-EMS framework has simultaneously modeled losses and security constraints while coordinating flexible loads within a unified architecture. The developed framework enables secure operation with effective peak shaving and reduced total cost. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated on 10-bus, 18-bus, and 33-bus systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 23, 2025

Assessing Long-Term Electricity Market Design for Ambitious Decarbonization Targets using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Electricity systems are key to transforming today's society into a carbon-free economy. Long-term electricity market mechanisms, including auctions, support schemes, and other policy instruments, are critical in shaping the electricity generation mix. In light of the need for more advanced tools to support policymakers and other stakeholders in designing, testing, and evaluating long-term markets, this work presents a multi-agent reinforcement learning model capable of capturing the key features of decarbonizing energy systems. Profit-maximizing generation companies make investment decisions in the wholesale electricity market, responding to system needs, competitive dynamics, and policy signals. The model employs independent proximal policy optimization, which was selected for suitability to the decentralized and competitive environment. Nevertheless, given the inherent challenges of independent learning in multi-agent settings, an extensive hyperparameter search ensures that decentralized training yields market outcomes consistent with competitive behavior. The model is applied to a stylized version of the Italian electricity system and tested under varying levels of competition, market designs, and policy scenarios. Results highlight the critical role of market design for decarbonizing the electricity sector and avoiding price volatility. The proposed framework allows assessing long-term electricity markets in which multiple policy and market mechanisms interact simultaneously, with market participants responding and adapting to decarbonization pathways.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 18, 2025

Leveraging Data-Driven Models for Accurate Analysis of Grid-Tied Smart Inverters Dynamics

The integration of power electronic converters (PECs) and distributed energy resources (DERs) in modern power systems has introduced dynamism and complexity. Accurate simulation becomes essential to comprehend the influence of converter domination on the power grid. This study addresses the fast-switching and stochastic behaviors exhibited by inverter-based resources in converter-dominated power systems, highlighting the necessity for precise analytical models. In the realm of modeling real-world systems, multiple methodologies exist. Notably, black-box and data-driven system identification techniques are employed to construct PEC models using experimental data, without relying on a priori knowledge of the internal system physics. This approach entails a systematic process of model class selection, parameter estimation, and model validation. While a range of linear and nonlinear model structures and estimation algorithms are at our disposal, it remains imperative to harness creativity and a profound understanding of the physical system to craft data-driven models that align seamlessly with their intended applications. These applications may encompass simulation, prediction, control, or fault detection. This report offers valuable insights into the collection of datasets from commercial off-the-shelf inverters, along with the presentation of intricate simulation models.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 2, 2023

Small Language Models for Agentic Systems: A Survey of Architectures, Capabilities, and Deployment Trade offs

Small language models (SLMs; 1-12B params, sometimes up to 20B) are sufficient and often superior for agentic workloads where the objective is schema- and API-constrained accuracy rather than open-ended generation. We synthesize recent evidence across open and proprietary SLMs (Phi-4-Mini, Qwen-2.5-7B, Gemma-2-9B, Llama-3.2-1B/3B, Ministral-3B/8B, Apple on-device 3B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill) and connect it to modern evaluations (BFCL v3/v4, StableToolBench) and serving stacks (vLLM, SGLang, TensorRT-LLM) paired with guided decoding libraries (XGrammar, Outlines). We formalize SLM-default, LLM-fallback systems with uncertainty-aware routing and verifier cascades, and propose engineering metrics that reflect real production goals: cost per successful task (CPS), schema validity rate, executable call rate, p50/p95 latency, and energy per request. Guided decoding, strict JSON Schema outputs, and validator-first tool execution close much of the capability gap with larger models and often let SLMs match or surpass LLMs on tool use, function calling, and RAG at 10x-100x lower token cost with materially better latency and energy. We provide design patterns for agent stacks that prioritize SLMs: schema-first prompting, type-safe function registries, confidence scoring with verifier rollups, and lightweight adaptation via LoRA/QLoRA. We also delineate limits where fallback remains valuable (open-domain reasoning and some long-horizon planning). The result is a practical blueprint for building fast, inexpensive, and reliable agents that default to SLMs while preserving headroom with targeted LLM assistance. Keywords: small language models, agents, function calling, structured outputs, JSON Schema, guided decoding, LoRA/QLoRA, routing, energy efficiency, edge inference

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 4, 2025

Nonlinear energy-preserving model reduction with lifting transformations that quadratize the energy

Existing model reduction techniques for high-dimensional models of conservative partial differential equations (PDEs) encounter computational bottlenecks when dealing with systems featuring non-polynomial nonlinearities. This work presents a nonlinear model reduction method that employs lifting variable transformations to derive structure-preserving quadratic reduced-order models for conservative PDEs with general nonlinearities. We present an energy-quadratization strategy that defines the auxiliary variable in terms of the nonlinear term in the energy expression to derive an equivalent quadratic lifted system with quadratic system energy. The proposed strategy combined with proper orthogonal decomposition model reduction yields quadratic reduced-order models that conserve the quadratized lifted energy exactly in high dimensions. We demonstrate the proposed model reduction approach on four nonlinear conservative PDEs: the one-dimensional wave equation with exponential nonlinearity, the two-dimensional sine-Gordon equation, the two-dimensional Klein-Gordon equation with parametric dependence, and the two-dimensional Klein-Gordon-Zakharov equations. The numerical results show that the proposed lifting approach is competitive with the state-of-the-art structure-preserving hyper-reduction method in terms of both accuracy and computational efficiency in the online stage while providing significant computational gains in the offline stage.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 17, 2025

Consistent Sampling and Simulation: Molecular Dynamics with Energy-Based Diffusion Models

In recent years, diffusion models trained on equilibrium molecular distributions have proven effective for sampling biomolecules. Beyond direct sampling, the score of such a model can also be used to derive the forces that act on molecular systems. However, while classical diffusion sampling usually recovers the training distribution, the corresponding energy-based interpretation of the learned score is often inconsistent with this distribution, even for low-dimensional toy systems. We trace this inconsistency to inaccuracies of the learned score at very small diffusion timesteps, where the model must capture the correct evolution of the data distribution. In this regime, diffusion models fail to satisfy the Fokker--Planck equation, which governs the evolution of the score. We interpret this deviation as one source of the observed inconsistencies and propose an energy-based diffusion model with a Fokker--Planck-derived regularization term to enforce consistency. We demonstrate our approach by sampling and simulating multiple biomolecular systems, including fast-folding proteins, and by introducing a state-of-the-art transferable Boltzmann emulator for dipeptides that supports simulation and achieves improved consistency and efficient sampling. Our code, model weights, and self-contained JAX and PyTorch notebooks are available at https://github.com/noegroup/ScoreMD.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 20, 2025

Modelling Human Visual Motion Processing with Trainable Motion Energy Sensing and a Self-attention Network

Visual motion processing is essential for humans to perceive and interact with dynamic environments. Despite extensive research in cognitive neuroscience, image-computable models that can extract informative motion flow from natural scenes in a manner consistent with human visual processing have yet to be established. Meanwhile, recent advancements in computer vision (CV), propelled by deep learning, have led to significant progress in optical flow estimation, a task closely related to motion perception. Here we propose an image-computable model of human motion perception by bridging the gap between biological and CV models. Specifically, we introduce a novel two-stages approach that combines trainable motion energy sensing with a recurrent self-attention network for adaptive motion integration and segregation. This model architecture aims to capture the computations in V1-MT, the core structure for motion perception in the biological visual system, while providing the ability to derive informative motion flow for a wide range of stimuli, including complex natural scenes. In silico neurophysiology reveals that our model's unit responses are similar to mammalian neural recordings regarding motion pooling and speed tuning. The proposed model can also replicate human responses to a range of stimuli examined in past psychophysical studies. The experimental results on the Sintel benchmark demonstrate that our model predicts human responses better than the ground truth, whereas the state-of-the-art CV models show the opposite. Our study provides a computational architecture consistent with human visual motion processing, although the physiological correspondence may not be exact.

  • 4 authors
·
May 16, 2023

Modeling Performance of Data Collection Systems for High-Energy Physics

Exponential increases in scientific experimental data are outstripping the rate of progress in silicon technology. As a result, heterogeneous combinations of architectures and process or device technologies are increasingly important to meet the computing demands of future scientific experiments. However, the complexity of heterogeneous computing systems requires systematic modeling to understand performance. We present a model which addresses this need by framing key aspects of data collection pipelines and constraints, and combines them with the important vectors of technology that shape alternatives, computing metrics that allow complex alternatives to be compared. For instance, a data collection pipeline may be characterized by parameters such as sensor sampling rates, amount of data collected, and the overall relevancy of retrieved samples. Alternatives to this pipeline are enabled by hardware development vectors including advancing CMOS, GPUs, neuromorphic computing, and edge computing. By calculating metrics for each alternative such as overall F1 score, power, hardware cost, and energy expended per relevant sample, this model allows alternate data collection systems to be rigorously compared. To demonstrate this model's capability, we apply it to the CMS experiment (and planned HL-LHC upgrade) to evaluate and compare the application of novel technologies in the data acquisition system (DAQ). We demonstrate that improvements to early stages in the DAQ are highly beneficial, greatly reducing the resources required at later stages of processing (such as a 60% power reduction) and increasing the amount of relevant data retrieved from the experiment per unit power (improving from 0.065 to 0.31 samples/kJ) However, we predict further advances will be required in order to meet overall power and cost constraints for the DAQ.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 27, 2024

QEIL v2: Heterogeneous Computing for Edge Intelligence via Roofline-Derived Pareto-Optimal Energy Modeling and Multi-Objective Orchestration

Deploying large language models (LLMs) on heterogeneous edge devices demands frameworks that jointly optimize energy efficiency, inference quality, and reliability. Our prior QEIL v1 (Kumar & Jha, 2026) achieved 4.82x IPW improvement but relied on static efficiency factors, greedy optimization, and unverified candidate selection. QEIL v2 replaces every static heuristic with physics-grounded, runtime-adaptive models. We introduce three device-workload metrics: DASI (roofline-derived compute utilization), CPQ (memory pressure from allocation theory), and Phi (thermal yield from CMOS leakage physics), forming a unified energy equation with every coefficient traceable to semiconductor physics. For optimization, PGSAM (Pareto-Guided Simulated Annealing with Momentum) simultaneously minimizes energy, latency, and device underutilization. At inference time, the EAC/ARDE selection cascade with CSVET early stopping provides progressive verification among repeated samples. Evaluated on WikiText-103, GSM8K, and ARC-Challenge across seven model families (125M-8B parameters, including one pre-quantized variant), QEIL v2 achieves 75.7% pass@k at 63.8W (IPW=0.9749), a 2.86x improvement over standard inference. When applied to a 4-bit Llama-3.1-8B, QEIL v2's physics-grounded routing achieves IPW=1.024 at 54.8W -- the first edge orchestration system to surpass the IPW=1.0 empirical reference mark, with the gain attributable entirely to QEIL v2's workload-adaptive device allocation on a model with reduced memory bandwidth requirements. Total energy drops 75.6% vs. standard with 38.3% latency reduction, zero thermal throttling, and 100% fault recovery across all benchmarks and model families.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 4 2

Artificial Intelligence for Mathematical Reasoning: An Integrated Survey of Language Models, Neuro-symbolic Systems, and Verified Discovery

Mathematical reasoning has long served as a stringent test of machine intelligence; over the past decade, it has moved from a niche problem within NLP to one of the most consequential AI frontiers. This survey provides a unified account of the field's evolution, from early rule-based math word problem (MWP) solvers and template-driven geometry systems, through neural expression generation and LLM prompting, to contemporary reasoning models, multi-agent systems, neuro-symbolic theorem provers, and verified discovery workflows. We organize the landscape along four axes: (i) informal reasoning over text and diagrams, spanning MWP solving, multimodal geometry, and VLMs; (ii) formal reasoning in proof assistants, including autoformalization, tactic prediction, compiler-guided repair, and proof search; (iii) mathematical discovery, where systems propose constructions, improve bounds, or assist attacks on open problems; and (iv) the inference and training-time techniques, including CoT prompting, tool use, process reward models, and RLVR, that increasingly connect generation with verification. We catalog major benchmarks across grade-school arithmetic, competition mathematics, geometry, formal proving, multimodal and multilingual reasoning, and expert evaluation, and we examine benchmark saturation, contamination, reporting mismatches, and the distinction between pass@1, majority voting, and verifier-assisted pass@k. We critically assess failure modes: brittleness under perturbation, reward hacking, multimodal grounding failures, fragile formalization, and the energy cost of reasoning-scale inference. Drawing on recent perspectives from working mathematicians, we identify future directions centered on verified-discovery workflows, reasoning efficiency, and infrastructure to make AI-assisted formalization broadly usable. Companion materials: https://github.com/Starscream-11813/awesome-AI4Math.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 6

Sustainable LLM Inference using Context-Aware Model Switching

Large language models have become central to many AI applications, but their growing energy consumption raises serious sustainability concerns. A key limitation in current AI deployments is the reliance on a one-size-fits-all inference strategy where most systems route every request to the same large model, regardless of task complexity, leading to substantial and unnecessary energy waste. To address this issue, we propose a context-aware model switching approach that dynamically selects an appropriate language model based on query complexity. The proposed system uses a Context-Aware Model Switching for Energy-Efficient LLM Inference that combines caching for repeated queries, rulebased complexity scoring for fast and explainable decisions, machine learning classification to capture semantic intent, and a user-adaptive component that learns from interaction patterns over time. The proposed architecture was evaluated using real conversation workloads and three open-source language models (Gemma3 1B, Gemma3 4B and Qwen3 4B) with different computational costs, measuring energy consumption (via NVML GPU power telemetry), response latency, routing accuracy, and output quality (BERTScore F1) to reflect real-world usage conditions. Experimental results show that the model switching approach can reduce energy consumption by up to 67.5% compared to always using the largest model while maintaining a response quality of 93.6%. In addition, the response time for simple queries also improved significantly by approximately 68%. These results show that model switching inference offers a practical and scalable path toward more energy-efficient and sustainable AI systems, demonstrating that significant efficiency gains can be achieved without major sacrifices in response quality.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 24

Machine Learning Modeling for Multi-order Human Visual Motion Processing

Our research aims to develop machines that learn to perceive visual motion as do humans. While recent advances in computer vision (CV) have enabled DNN-based models to accurately estimate optical flow in naturalistic images, a significant disparity remains between CV models and the biological visual system in both architecture and behavior. This disparity includes humans' ability to perceive the motion of higher-order image features (second-order motion), which many CV models fail to capture because of their reliance on the intensity conservation law. Our model architecture mimics the cortical V1-MT motion processing pathway, utilizing a trainable motion energy sensor bank and a recurrent graph network. Supervised learning employing diverse naturalistic videos allows the model to replicate psychophysical and physiological findings about first-order (luminance-based) motion perception. For second-order motion, inspired by neuroscientific findings, the model includes an additional sensing pathway with nonlinear preprocessing before motion energy sensing, implemented using a simple multilayer 3D CNN block. When exploring how the brain acquired the ability to perceive second-order motion in natural environments, in which pure second-order signals are rare, we hypothesized that second-order mechanisms were critical when estimating robust object motion amidst optical fluctuations, such as highlights on glossy surfaces. We trained our dual-pathway model on novel motion datasets with varying material properties of moving objects. We found that training to estimate object motion from non-Lambertian materials naturally endowed the model with the capacity to perceive second-order motion, as can humans. The resulting model effectively aligns with biological systems while generalizing to both first- and second-order motion phenomena in natural scenes.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 22, 2025

STEEL: Sparsity-Aware Fused Attention for Energy-Efficient Long-Sequence Inference on AMD's XDNA NPU

The growing adoption of large language model-based agents within operating system workflows has increased the importance of energy-efficient inference on laptop-class systems-on-chip (SoCs). While cloud offloading remains common, it introduces reliability and privacy concerns that are particularly problematic for agentic workloads. Recent laptop SoCs, therefore, incorporate neural processing engines (NPUs) optimized for energy efficiency; however, effectively mapping attention mechanisms onto NPUs remains challenging due to architectural diversity and explicit data-movement programming models. In this work, we present STEEL, the first open-source implementation of FlashAttention targeting XDNA-like NPUs. STEEL introduces a dataflow formulation of prefill attention, enabling efficient exploitation of spatial parallelism and on-chip memory. Furthermore, STEEL addresses the load imbalance induced by the causal mask by leveraging a sparsity-aware pipeline placement onto the NPU array, reducing synchronization overhead and improving utilization. We evaluate STEEL on the AMD Ryzen AI 9 HX 370 SoC and compare its performance against optimized CPU and GPU implementations. Experimental results show that STEEL reduces energy consumption by an average of 9.17x and 1.75x relative to CPU and GPU baselines, respectively. On XDNA 1, STEEL achieves an average 9.6x latency reduction over the prior state of the art, and delivers a 22.8x speedup on average compared to a layer-by-layer attention implementation on XDNA 2.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 9

Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Quantitative Estimates for Performance metrics applied to Saddle Search Algorithms

Rigorous performance evaluation is essential for developing robust algorithms for high-throughput computational chemistry. Traditional benchmarking, however, often struggles to account for system-specific variability, making it difficult to form actionable conclusions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that rigorously quantifies performance metrics and their uncertainty, enabling a nuanced comparison of algorithmic strategies. We apply this framework to analyze the Dimer method, comparing Conjugate Gradient (CG) and L-BFGS rotation optimizers, with and without the removal of external rotations, across a benchmark of 500 molecular systems. Our analysis confirms that CG offers higher overall robustness than L-BFGS in this context. While the theoretically-motivated removal of external rotations led to higher computational cost (>40% more energy and force calls) for most systems in this set, our models also reveal a subtle interplay, hinting that this feature may improve the reliability of the L-BFGS optimizer. Rather than identifying a single superior method, our findings support the design of adaptive "chain of methods" workflows. This work showcases how a robust statistical paradigm can move beyond simple performance rankings to inform the intelligent, context-dependent application of computational chemistry methods.

  • 1 authors
·
May 19, 2025 2

A Graph Neural Network for the Era of Large Atomistic Models

Foundation models, or large atomistic models (LAMs), aim to universally represent the ground-state potential energy surface (PES) of atomistic systems as defined by density functional theory (DFT). The scaling law is pivotal in the development of large models, suggesting that their generalizability in downstream tasks consistently improves with increased model size, expanded training datasets, and larger computational budgets. In this study, we present DPA3, a multi-layer graph neural network founded on line graph series (LiGS), designed explicitly for the era of LAMs. We demonstrate that the generalization error of the DPA3 model adheres to the scaling law. The scalability in the number of model parameters is attained by stacking additional layers within DPA3. Additionally, the model employs a dataset encoding mechanism that decouples the scaling of training data size from the model size within its multi-task training framework. When trained as problem-oriented potential energy models, the DPA3 model exhibits superior accuracy in the majority of benchmark cases, encompassing systems with diverse features, including molecules, bulk materials, surface and cluster catalysts, two-dimensional materials, and battery materials. When trained as a LAM on the OpenLAM-v1 dataset, the DPA-3.1-3M model exhibits state-of-the-art performance in the LAMBench benchmark suite for LAMs, demonstrating lowest overall zero-shot generalization error across 17 downstream tasks from a broad spectrum of research domains. This performance suggests superior accuracy as an out-of-the-box potential model, requiring minimal fine-tuning data for downstream scientific applications.

  • 14 authors
·
Jun 2, 2025

Generative Marginalization Models

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 19, 2023

DREAM: Scalable Red Teaming for Text-to-Image Generative Systems via Distribution Modeling

Despite the integration of safety alignment and external filters, text-to-image (T2I) generative models are still susceptible to producing harmful content, such as sexual or violent imagery. This raises serious concerns about unintended exposure and potential misuse. Red teaming, which aims to proactively identify diverse prompts that can elicit unsafe outputs from the T2I system (including the core generative model as well as potential external safety filters and other processing components), is increasingly recognized as an essential method for assessing and improving safety before real-world deployment. Yet, existing automated red teaming approaches often treat prompt discovery as an isolated, prompt-level optimization task, which limits their scalability, diversity, and overall effectiveness. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we propose DREAM, a scalable red teaming framework to automatically uncover diverse problematic prompts from a given T2I system. Unlike most prior works that optimize prompts individually, DREAM directly models the probabilistic distribution of the target system's problematic prompts, which enables explicit optimization over both effectiveness and diversity, and allows efficient large-scale sampling after training. To achieve this without direct access to representative training samples, we draw inspiration from energy-based models and reformulate the objective into simple and tractable objectives. We further introduce GC-SPSA, an efficient optimization algorithm that provide stable gradient estimates through the long and potentially non-differentiable T2I pipeline. The effectiveness of DREAM is validated through extensive experiments, demonstrating that it surpasses 9 state-of-the-art baselines by a notable margin across a broad range of T2I models and safety filters in terms of prompt success rate and diversity.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 22, 2025

Textual Equilibrium Propagation for Deep Compound AI Systems

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as part of compound AI systems that coordinate multiple modules (e.g., retrievers, tools, verifiers) over long-horizon workflows. Recent approaches that propagate textual feedback globally (e.g., TextGrad) make it feasible to optimize such pipelines, but we find that performance degrades as system depth grows. In particular, long-horizon agentic workflows exhibit two depth-scaling failure modes: 1) exploding textual gradient, where textual feedback grows exponentially with depth, leading to prohibitively long message and amplifies evaluation biases; and 2) vanishing textual gradient, where limited long-context ability causes models overemphasize partial feedback and compression of lengthy feedback causes downstream messages to lose specificity gradually as they propagate many hops upstream. To mitigate these issues, we introduce Textual Equilibrium Propagation (TEP), a local learning principle inspired by Equilibrium Propagation in energy-based models. TEP includes two phases: 1) a free phase where a local LLM critics iteratively refine prompts until reaching equilibrium (no further improvements are suggested); and 2) a nudged phase which applies proximal prompt edits with bounded modification intensity, using task-level objectives that propagate via forward signaling rather than backward feedback chains. This design supports local prompt optimization followed by controlled adaptation toward global goals without the computational burden and signal degradation of global textual backpropagation. Across long-horizon QA benchmarks and multi-agent tool-use dataset, TEP consistently improves accuracy and efficiency over global propagation methods such as TextGrad. The gains grows with depth, while preserving the practicality of black-box LLM components in deep compound AI system.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 1

UBio-MolFM: A Universal Molecular Foundation Model for Bio-Systems

All-atom molecular simulation serves as a quintessential ``computational microscope'' for understanding the machinery of life, yet it remains fundamentally limited by the trade-off between quantum-mechanical (QM) accuracy and biological scale. We present UBio-MolFM, a universal foundation model framework specifically engineered to bridge this gap. UBio-MolFM introduces three synergistic innovations: (1) UBio-Mol26, a large bio-specific dataset constructed via a multi-fidelity ``Two-Pronged Strategy'' that combines systematic bottom-up enumeration with top-down sampling of native protein environments (up to 1,200 atoms); (2) E2Former-V2, a linear-scaling equivariant transformer that integrates Equivariant Axis-Aligned Sparsification (EAAS) and Long-Short Range (LSR) modeling to capture non-local physics with up to ~4x higher inference throughput in our large-system benchmarks; and (3) a Three-Stage Curriculum Learning protocol that transitions from energy initialization to energy-force consistency, with force-focused supervision to mitigate energy offsets. Rigorous benchmarking across microscopic forces and macroscopic observables -- including liquid water structure, ionic solvation, and peptide folding -- demonstrates that UBio-MolFM achieves ab initio-level fidelity on large, out-of-distribution biomolecular systems (up to ~1,500 atoms) and realistic MD observables. By reconciling scalability with quantum precision, UBio-MolFM provides a robust, ready-to-use tool for the next generation of computational biology.

  • 11 authors
·
Feb 12

Stochastic-Robust Planning of Networked Hydrogen-Electrical Microgrids: A Study on Induced Refueling Demand

Hydrogen-electrical microgrids are increasingly assuming an important role on the pathway toward decarbonization of energy and transportation systems. This paper studies networked hydrogen-electrical microgrids planning (NHEMP), considering a critical but often-overlooked issue, i.e., the demand-inducing effect (DIE) associated with infrastructure development decisions. Specifically, higher refueling capacities will attract more refueling demand of hydrogen-powered vehicles (HVs). To capture such interactions between investment decisions and induced refueling demand, we introduce a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) set and build a trilevel stochastic-robust formulation. The upper-level determines optimal investment strategies for hydrogen-electrical microgrids, the lower-level optimizes the risk-aware operation schedules across a series of stochastic scenarios, and, for each scenario, the middle-level identifies the "worst" situation of refueling demand within an individual DDU set to ensure economic feasibility. Then, an adaptive and exact decomposition algorithm, based on Parametric Column-and-Constraint Generation (PC&CG), is customized and developed to address the computational challenge and to quantitatively analyze the impact of DIE. Case studies on an IEEE exemplary system validate the effectiveness of the proposed NHEMP model and the PC&CG algorithm. It is worth highlighting that DIE can make an important contribution to the economic benefits of NHEMP, yet its significance will gradually decrease when the main bottleneck transits to other system restrictions.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 31, 2024

The Binary Fraction of Red Supergiants in the Magellanic Clouds

Red supergiants (RSGs), as the descendants of OB-type stars and the progenitors of supernovae, provide crucial insights into the evolution of massive stars, particularly in binary systems. Previous studies show that the binary fraction of RSGs (approx 15% - 40%) is significantly lower than that of their predecessors (approx 50% - 70%). In this work, we investigate the binary fraction of RSGs with the recently selected largest samples of 4695 and 2097 RSGs in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), respectively. The binary system with a hot companion (O-, B- and A-type star) is identified by detecting the ultraviolet (UV) excess in the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) ranging from ultraviolet to mid-infrared after subtracting the model SED of RSG since RSGs are very weak in the UV band. It is found that the lower limit of binarity is 30.2% pm 0.7% and 32.2% pm 1% in the LMC and SMC, respectively. If the sample is limited to luminous RSGs with log L/L_{odot} > 4.0, the binary fraction becomes 26.6% pm 1.1% and 26.4% pm 1.7% in the LMC and SMC, respectively. The derived binary fraction is valid in the range of sim 2.3 < log P / [d] < sim 8. Our study suggests that roughly one-third of massive stars host a third companion within sim 30,000 AU. In addition, 15 RSGs are also identified as binary via HST/STIS spectra, and a handful of the binaries identified by the SED fitting are confirmed by their light curve and radial velocity dispersion. The stellar parameters of the companions, i.e. T_{eff}, R, L and log g, are calculated by model fitting.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 4, 2025

Backpropagation-free Training of Deep Physical Neural Networks

Recent years have witnessed the outstanding success of deep learning in various fields such as vision and natural language processing. This success is largely indebted to the massive size of deep learning models that is expected to increase unceasingly. This growth of the deep learning models is accompanied by issues related to their considerable energy consumption, both during the training and inference phases, as well as their scalability. Although a number of work based on unconventional physical systems have been proposed which addresses the issue of energy efficiency in the inference phase, efficient training of deep learning models has remained unaddressed. So far, training of digital deep learning models mainly relies on backpropagation, which is not suitable for physical implementation as it requires perfect knowledge of the computation performed in the so-called forward pass of the neural network. Here, we tackle this issue by proposing a simple deep neural network architecture augmented by a biologically plausible learning algorithm, referred to as "model-free forward-forward training". The proposed architecture enables training deep physical neural networks consisting of layers of physical nonlinear systems, without requiring detailed knowledge of the nonlinear physical layers' properties. We show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art hardware-aware training methods by improving training speed, decreasing digital computations, and reducing power consumption in physical systems. We demonstrate the adaptability of the proposed method, even in systems exposed to dynamic or unpredictable external perturbations. To showcase the universality of our approach, we train diverse wave-based physical neural networks that vary in the underlying wave phenomenon and the type of non-linearity they use, to perform vowel and image classification tasks experimentally.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 20, 2023

One More Time: Revisiting Neural Quantum States from a Reinforcement Learning Perspective

Neural quantum states (NQS) provide a flexible and scalable framework for approximating quantum many-body wavefunctions. Among NQS parameterizations, autoregressive models are especially attractive because they enable exact, independent sampling from the Born distribution, avoiding the autocorrelation and mixing issues of Markov chain methods. Yet their optimization remains comparatively underexplored: Adam is a scalable method but ignores function space geometry, while stochastic reconfiguration is principled but costly and numerically fragile in large models. To address this gap, we show that variational energy minimization can be viewed as an advantage policy-gradient problem over the Born distribution, motivating trust-region optimization for NQS training. We introduce Proximal Wavefunction Optimization (PWO), a principled trust-region algorithm that clips probability-ratio changes in the amplitude channel and phase increments in the phase channel. PWO avoids explicit matrix inversion, reuses samples across multiple updates, and combines the scalability of first-order optimization with theoretical guarantees. Across Ising and frustrated J_1-J_2 one- and two-dimensional spin systems, PWO improves stability and wall-clock convergence over Adam, minSR, and SPRING. Finally, we fine-tune a 1.5B-parameter RWKV-7 model, demonstrating NQS optimization at a scale over three orders of magnitude beyond prior work.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 1

Towards Seamless Hierarchical Federated Learning under Intermittent Client Participation: A Stagewise Decision-Making Methodology

Federated Learning (FL) offers a pioneering distributed learning paradigm that enables devices/clients to build a shared global model. This global model is obtained through frequent model transmissions between clients and a central server, which may cause high latency, energy consumption, and congestion over backhaul links. To overcome these drawbacks, Hierarchical Federated Learning (HFL) has emerged, which organizes clients into multiple clusters and utilizes edge nodes (e.g., edge servers) for intermediate model aggregations between clients and the central server. Current research on HFL mainly focus on enhancing model accuracy, latency, and energy consumption in scenarios with a stable/fixed set of clients. However, addressing the dynamic availability of clients -- a critical aspect of real-world scenarios -- remains underexplored. This study delves into optimizing client selection and client-to-edge associations in HFL under intermittent client participation so as to minimize overall system costs (i.e., delay and energy), while achieving fast model convergence. We unveil that achieving this goal involves solving a complex NP-hard problem. To tackle this, we propose a stagewise methodology that splits the solution into two stages, referred to as Plan A and Plan B. Plan A focuses on identifying long-term clients with high chance of participation in subsequent model training rounds. Plan B serves as a backup, selecting alternative clients when long-term clients are unavailable during model training rounds. This stagewise methodology offers a fresh perspective on client selection that can enhance both HFL and conventional FL via enabling low-overhead decision-making processes. Through evaluations on MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, we show that our methodology outperforms existing benchmarks in terms of model accuracy and system costs.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 20, 2025

Fast, Expressive SE$(n)$ Equivariant Networks through Weight-Sharing in Position-Orientation Space

Based on the theory of homogeneous spaces we derive geometrically optimal edge attributes to be used within the flexible message-passing framework. We formalize the notion of weight sharing in convolutional networks as the sharing of message functions over point-pairs that should be treated equally. We define equivalence classes of point-pairs that are identical up to a transformation in the group and derive attributes that uniquely identify these classes. Weight sharing is then obtained by conditioning message functions on these attributes. As an application of the theory, we develop an efficient equivariant group convolutional network for processing 3D point clouds. The theory of homogeneous spaces tells us how to do group convolutions with feature maps over the homogeneous space of positions R^3, position and orientations R^3 {times} S^2, and the group SE(3) itself. Among these, R^3 {times} S^2 is an optimal choice due to the ability to represent directional information, which R^3 methods cannot, and it significantly enhances computational efficiency compared to indexing features on the full SE(3) group. We support this claim with state-of-the-art results -- in accuracy and speed -- on five different benchmarks in 2D and 3D, including interatomic potential energy prediction, trajectory forecasting in N-body systems, and generating molecules via equivariant diffusion models.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 4, 2023

Labour reallocation and production-network recomposition in the green transition

A growing number of countries are adopting policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, a process expected to reshape production systems and labour markets by altering relative prices and changing production and demand patterns across sectors. We develop an agent-based monetary input--output network model to analyse the medium-term effects of climate policies on production networks and sectoral labour allocation. The model features heterogeneous industries and households, incorporates greenhouse-gas emissions accounting, and is calibrated to a multi-regional input--output database covering the world economy. We simulate two alternative climate-policy scenarios over 2026--2035: one based on countries' nationally determined contributions and another targeting larger reductions in global emissions. The results reveal significant economy-wide reallocation: fossil-energy sectors contract, low-carbon energy sectors expand, and their positions within production networks change asymmetrically. Fossil energy loses relevance as a direct supplier and exerts less forward influence, while its remaining production becomes more dependent on intermediate inputs and upstream suppliers; low-carbon energy primarily strengthens its role as a supplier. Carbon pricing also generates sectoral labour gaps that, under mobility frictions, imply greater potential transitional unemployment. Because the model allows only limited technological change and adjustment within existing production links, the simulations provide a counterfactual assessment of how existing production structures respond to a relatively rapid climate transition, revealing the adjustment pressures that emerge when policy ambitions advance faster than the productive system's capacity to adapt.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 1

Building Power Grid Models from Open Data: A Complete Pipeline from OpenStreetMap to Optimal Power Flow

Access to realistic transmission grid models is essential for power systems research, yet detailed network data in the United States remains restricted under critical-infrastructure regulations. We present a pipeline that constructs complete, OPF-solvable transmission network models entirely from publicly available data. The five-stage pipeline (1) extracts power infrastructure from OpenStreetMap via a local Overpass API instance, (2) reconstructs bus-branch topology through voltage inference, line merging, and transformer detection, (3) estimates electrical parameters using voltage-class lookup tables calibrated with U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) plant-level data, (4) allocates hourly demand from EIA-930 to individual buses using US Census population as a spatial proxy, and (5) solves both DC and AC optimal power flow using PowerModels.jl with a progressive relaxation strategy that automatically loosens constraints on imprecise models. We validate the pipeline on all 48 contiguous US states and six multi-state regions, including the full Western (5,076 buses) and Eastern (21,697 buses) Interconnections. Of the 48 single-state models, 42 (88%) converge at the strictest relaxation level for AC-OPF at peak hour and 44 (92%) off-peak. Dispatch costs (median $22/MWh) and system losses (median 1.0%) are consistent with real wholesale-market outcomes. The pipeline relies exclusively on open data sources, enabling reproducible grid analysis without proprietary data. All 54 models (48 single-state and 6 multi-state) are publicly released at https://github.com/microsoft/GridSFM.

  • 6 authors
·
May 4

EBT-Policy: Energy Unlocks Emergent Physical Reasoning Capabilities

Implicit policies parameterized by generative models, such as Diffusion Policy, have become the standard for policy learning and Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models in robotics. However, these approaches often suffer from high computational cost, exposure bias, and unstable inference dynamics, which lead to divergence under distribution shifts. Energy-Based Models (EBMs) address these issues by learning energy landscapes end-to-end and modeling equilibrium dynamics, offering improved robustness and reduced exposure bias. Yet, policies parameterized by EBMs have historically struggled to scale effectively. Recent work on Energy-Based Transformers (EBTs) demonstrates the scalability of EBMs to high-dimensional spaces, but their potential for solving core challenges in physically embodied models remains underexplored. We introduce a new energy-based architecture, EBT-Policy, that solves core issues in robotic and real-world settings. Across simulated and real-world tasks, EBT-Policy consistently outperforms diffusion-based policies, while requiring less training and inference computation. Remarkably, on some tasks it converges within just two inference steps, a 50x reduction compared to Diffusion Policy's 100. Moreover, EBT-Policy exhibits emergent capabilities not seen in prior models, such as zero-shot recovery from failed action sequences using only behavior cloning and without explicit retry training. By leveraging its scalar energy for uncertainty-aware inference and dynamic compute allocation, EBT-Policy offers a promising path toward robust, generalizable robot behavior under distribution shifts.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 31, 2025 3

Location based Probabilistic Load Forecasting of EV Charging Sites: Deep Transfer Learning with Multi-Quantile Temporal Convolutional Network

Electrification of vehicles is a potential way of reducing fossil fuel usage and thus lessening environmental pollution. Electric Vehicles (EVs) of various types for different transport modes (including air, water, and land) are evolving. Moreover, different EV user groups (commuters, commercial or domestic users, drivers) may use different charging infrastructures (public, private, home, and workplace) at various times. Therefore, usage patterns and energy demand are very stochastic. Characterizing and forecasting the charging demand of these diverse EV usage profiles is essential in preventing power outages. Previously developed data-driven load models are limited to specific use cases and locations. None of these models are simultaneously adaptive enough to transfer knowledge of day-ahead forecasting among EV charging sites of diverse locations, trained with limited data, and cost-effective. This article presents a location-based load forecasting of EV charging sites using a deep Multi-Quantile Temporal Convolutional Network (MQ-TCN) to overcome the limitations of earlier models. We conducted our experiments on data from four charging sites, namely Caltech, JPL, Office-1, and NREL, which have diverse EV user types like students, full-time and part-time employees, random visitors, etc. With a Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) score of 93.62\%, our proposed deep MQ-TCN model exhibited a remarkable 28.93\% improvement over the XGBoost model for a day-ahead load forecasting at the JPL charging site. By transferring knowledge with the inductive Transfer Learning (TL) approach, the MQ-TCN model achieved a 96.88\% PICP score for the load forecasting task at the NREL site using only two weeks of data.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 18, 2024

An Introduction to Electrocatalyst Design using Machine Learning for Renewable Energy Storage

Scalable and cost-effective solutions to renewable energy storage are essential to addressing the world's rising energy needs while reducing climate change. As we increase our reliance on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which produce intermittent power, storage is needed to transfer power from times of peak generation to peak demand. This may require the storage of power for hours, days, or months. One solution that offers the potential of scaling to nation-sized grids is the conversion of renewable energy to other fuels, such as hydrogen or methane. To be widely adopted, this process requires cost-effective solutions to running electrochemical reactions. An open challenge is finding low-cost electrocatalysts to drive these reactions at high rates. Through the use of quantum mechanical simulations (density functional theory), new catalyst structures can be tested and evaluated. Unfortunately, the high computational cost of these simulations limits the number of structures that may be tested. The use of machine learning may provide a method to efficiently approximate these calculations, leading to new approaches in finding effective electrocatalysts. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the challenges in finding suitable electrocatalysts, how machine learning may be applied to the problem, and the use of the Open Catalyst Project OC20 dataset for model training.

  • 17 authors
·
Oct 14, 2020

Real-Time Prediction of Gas Flow Dynamics in Diesel Engines using a Deep Neural Operator Framework

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 2, 2023

Shielded Controller Units for RL with Operational Constraints Applied to Remote Microgrids

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful framework for optimizing decision-making in complex systems under uncertainty, an essential challenge in real-world settings, particularly in the context of the energy transition. A representative example is remote microgrids that supply power to communities disconnected from the main grid. Enabling the energy transition in such systems requires coordinated control of renewable sources like wind turbines, alongside fuel generators and batteries, to meet demand while minimizing fuel consumption and battery degradation under exogenous and intermittent load and wind conditions. These systems must often conform to extensive regulations and complex operational constraints. To ensure that RL agents respect these constraints, it is crucial to provide interpretable guarantees. In this paper, we introduce Shielded Controller Units (SCUs), a systematic and interpretable approach that leverages prior knowledge of system dynamics to ensure constraint satisfaction. Our shield synthesis methodology, designed for real-world deployment, decomposes the environment into a hierarchical structure where each SCU explicitly manages a subset of constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SCUs on a remote microgrid optimization task with strict operational requirements. The RL agent, equipped with SCUs, achieves a 24% reduction in fuel consumption without increasing battery degradation, outperforming other baselines while satisfying all constraints. We hope SCUs contribute to the safe application of RL to the many decision-making challenges linked to the energy transition.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 30, 2025

Trajectory Sensitivity-Based Dynamic Assessment of an AI Data Center Under Contingencies

Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers are emerging as converter-dominated, parameter-rich electrical systems whose dynamic response depends on fast workload-driven demand variations, tightly regulated data-hall converters, and coordinated on-site sources. Assessing such systems by repeatedly solving nonlinear time-domain models for every outage, load realization, and parameter perturbation is computationally expensive and provides limited insight into response sensitivity. This paper presents a trajectory sensitivity (TS)-based dynamic assessment framework for a self-contained AI data center supplied by a 2 kV DC microgrid with a grid-tied interface. The model includes time-varying data-hall load profiles, a voltage source converter (VSC), battery energy storage systems (BESS) units, supercapacitors, and synchronous-generation-side sources. For each disturbance, firstly, TS are computed along the nonlinear disturbance trajectory, capturing the local effect of source trips, data-hall outages, converter controls, and load ramps. Later, the computed TS data is used to estimate system trajectories under simultaneous parameter perturbations. Validation against full nonlinear ODE simulations with pm 15% perturbations shows close agreement. In addition, the TS-based approach reduces computational time of dynamic-response evaluations from seconds to milliseconds, demonstrating its potential as a scalable screening tool for AI data center dynamics.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 6

Decentralized Integration of Grid Edge Resources into Wholesale Electricity Markets via Mean-field Games

Grid edge resources refer to distributed energy resources (DERs) located on the consumer side of the electrical grid, controlled by consumers rather than utility companies. Integrating DERs with real-time electricity pricing can better align distributed supply with system demand, improving grid efficiency and reliability. However, DER owners, known as prosumers, often lack the expertise and resources to directly participate in wholesale energy markets, limiting their ability to fully realize the economic potential of their assets. Meanwhile, as DER adoption grows, the number of prosumers participating in the energy system is expected to increase significantly, creating additional challenges in coordination and market participation. To address these challenges, we propose a mean-field game framework that enables prosumers to autonomously learn optimal decision policies based on dynamic market prices and their variable solar generation. Our framework is designed to accommodate heterogeneous agents and demonstrates the existence of a mean-field equilibrium (MFE) in a wholesale energy market with many prosumers. Additionally, we introduce an algorithm that automates prosumers' resource control, facilitating real-time decision-making for energy storage management. Numerical experiments suggest that our approach converges towards an MFE and effectively reduces peak loads and price volatility, especially during periods of external demand or supply shocks. This study highlights the potential of a fully decentralized approach to integrating DERs into wholesale markets while improving market efficiency.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 10, 2025

Uncovering Drivers of EU Carbon Futures with Bayesian Networks

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key policy tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing toward a net-zero economy. Under this scheme, tradeable carbon credits, European Union Allowances (EUAs), are issued to large emitters, who can buy and sell them on regulated markets. We investigate the influence of financial, economic, and energy-related factors on EUA futures prices using discrete and dynamic Bayesian networks to model both contemporaneous and time-lagged dependencies. The analysis is based on daily data spanning the third and fourth ETS trading phases (2013-2025), incorporating a wide range of indicators including energy commodities, equity indices, exchange rates, and bond markets. Results reveal that EUA pricing is most influenced by energy commodities, especially coal and oil futures, and by the performance of the European energy sector. Broader market sentiment, captured through stock indices and volatility measures, affects EUA prices indirectly via changes in energy demand. The dynamic model confirms a modest next-day predictive influence from oil markets, while most other effects remain contemporaneous. These insights offer regulators, institutional investors, and firms subject to ETS compliance a clearer understanding of the interconnected forces shaping the carbon market, supporting more effective hedging, investment strategies, and policy design.

  • 2 authors
·
May 15, 2025

A Human-in-the-Loop Autonomous Agent for Industry Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time-series forecasting is rarely a one-shot model invocation: practitioners must formulate tasks, connect data and models, incorporate domain expertise, assess prediction plausibility, and communicate uncertainty. Specialized forecasting models provide strong numerical predictions but usually operate in fixed pipelines, while general-purpose large language model (LLM) agents often lack forecasting-specific checks, constraints, and stopping rules. We present CastClaw, a human-in-the-loop autonomous forecasting system built through forecasting-oriented harness engineering. CastClaw connects data, specialized models, analytical tools, user input, and a versioned execution record in one runtime. Users specify the target, horizon, constraints, and hypotheses in natural language. Starting from a supplied or model-generated forecast, CastClaw checks temporal patterns and user constraints; when evidence is missing, it retrieves context, runs an analysis or another model, or asks the user. It then keeps, revises, or escalates the result under explicit stopping conditions. The output contains the final forecast and an execution report recording inputs, evidence, actions, and revisions. In this five-dataset electricity-price setting, CastClaw reports the lowest point-estimate MSE and MAE among 16 baselines. A Nord Pool case demonstrates the inspectable workflow. CastClaw was also validated offline on provincial electricity-load data from North China covering January--June 2026.

  • 7 authors
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Aug 30

LLM-enabled Instance Model Generation

In the domain of model-based engineering, models are essential components that enable system design and analysis. Traditionally, the creation of these models has been a manual process requiring not only deep modeling expertise but also substantial domain knowledge of target systems. With the rapid advancement of generative artificial intelligence, large language models (LLMs) show potential for automating model generation. This work explores the generation of instance models using LLMs, focusing specifically on producing XMI-based instance models from Ecore metamodels and natural language specifications. We observe that current LLMs struggle to directly generate valid XMI models. To address this, we propose a two-step approach: first, using LLMs to produce a simplified structured output containing all necessary instance model information, namely a conceptual instance model, and then compiling this intermediate representation into a valid XMI file. The conceptual instance model is format-independent, allowing it to be transformed into various modeling formats via different compilers. The feasibility of the proposed method has been demonstrated using several LLMs, including GPT-4o, o1-preview, Llama 3.1 (8B and 70B). Results show that the proposed method significantly improves the usability of LLMs for instance model generation tasks. Notably, the smaller open-source model, Llama 3.1 70B, demonstrated performance comparable to proprietary GPT models within the proposed framework.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 28, 2025

From Economic Agents to Agentic Economies: A Systems Blueprint for Economic World Models

Economic World Models (EWMs) are generative economic models that simulate how economies evolve from within by modeling heterogeneous agents, their beliefs and actions, and the market and institutional mechanisms through which their interactions produce aggregate outcomes. This paper develops an implementation roadmap for building economic world models as generative engines in which heterogeneous agents act, interact, adapt, and co-evolve with markets and institutions, thereby producing economic dynamics from the inside. We organize EWM systems into a six-level capability ladder, from fixed rule-based agent worlds to adaptive and LLM-based agent worlds, self-evolving agents, evolving institutional worlds, and sim-to-real economic twins aligned with real observations. A systematic literature survey across these levels reveals that existing work remains concentrated in lower-level agent and simulation environments, while systems with self-evolving agents, endogenous institutions, persistent empirical alignment, and validated economic mechanisms remain rare. By translating the EWM agenda into an implementation blueprint, this paper aims to accelerate the development of the next generation of economic simulation environments that can serve as high-fidelity sandboxes for human decision-makers and as training, planning, evaluation, and safety substrates for AI agents. We release a curated paper list and related resources to support future research.

FreedomIntelligence FreedomAI
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Aug 5 6

SPDNet: Seasonal-Periodic Decomposition Network for Advanced Residential Demand Forecasting

Residential electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient energy management and grid stability. Accurate predictions enable utility companies to optimize planning and operations. However, real-world residential electricity demand data often exhibit intricate temporal variability, including multiple seasonalities, periodicities, and abrupt fluctuations, which pose significant challenges for forecasting models. Previous models that rely on statistical methods, recurrent, convolutional neural networks, and transformers often struggle to capture these intricate temporal dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose the Seasonal-Periodic Decomposition Network (SPDNet), a novel deep learning framework consisting of two main modules. The first is the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Module (STDM), which decomposes the input data into trend, seasonal, and residual components. The second is the Periodical Decomposition Module (PDM), which employs the Fast Fourier Transform to identify the dominant periods. For each dominant period, 1D input data is reshaped into a 2D tensor, where rows represent periods and columns correspond to frequencies. The 2D representations are then processed through three submodules: a 1D convolution to capture sharp fluctuations, a transformer-based encoder to model global patterns, and a 2D convolution to capture interactions between periods. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world residential electricity load data demonstrate that SPDNet outperforms traditional and advanced models in both forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Tims2D/SPDNet.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 27, 2025

Exploring the sustainable scaling of AI dilemma: A projective study of corporations' AI environmental impacts

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), has raised concerns regarding its global environmental impact that extends beyond greenhouse gas emissions to include consideration of hardware fabrication and end-of-life processes. The opacity from major providers hinders companies' abilities to evaluate their AI-related environmental impacts and achieve net-zero targets. In this paper, we propose a methodology to estimate the environmental impact of a company's AI portfolio, providing actionable insights without necessitating extensive AI and Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) expertise. Results confirm that large generative AI models consume up to 4600x more energy than traditional models. Our modelling approach, which accounts for increased AI usage, hardware computing efficiency, and changes in electricity mix in line with IPCC scenarios, forecasts AI electricity use up to 2030. Under a high adoption scenario, driven by widespread Generative AI and agents adoption associated to increasingly complex models and frameworks, AI electricity use is projected to rise by a factor of 24.4. Mitigating the environmental impact of Generative AI by 2030 requires coordinated efforts across the AI value chain. Isolated measures in hardware efficiency, model efficiency, or grid improvements alone are insufficient. We advocate for standardized environmental assessment frameworks, greater transparency from the all actors of the value chain and the introduction of a "Return on Environment" metric to align AI development with net-zero goals.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 24, 2025 3

SVTime: Small Time Series Forecasting Models Informed by "Physics" of Large Vision Model Forecasters

Time series AI is crucial for analyzing dynamic web content, driving a surge of pre-trained large models known for their strong knowledge encoding and transfer capabilities across diverse tasks. However, given their energy-intensive training, inference, and hardware demands, using large models as a one-fits-all solution raises serious concerns about carbon footprint and sustainability. For a specific task, a compact yet specialized, high-performing model may be more practical and affordable, especially for resource-constrained users such as small businesses. This motivates the question: Can we build cost-effective lightweight models with large-model-like performance on core tasks such as forecasting? This paper addresses this question by introducing SVTime, a novel Small model inspired by large Vision model (LVM) forecasters for long-term Time series forecasting (LTSF). Recently, LVMs have been shown as powerful tools for LTSF. We identify a set of key inductive biases of LVM forecasters -- analogous to the "physics" governing their behaviors in LTSF -- and design small models that encode these biases through meticulously crafted linear layers and constraint functions. Across 21 baselines spanning lightweight, complex, and pre-trained large models on 8 benchmark datasets, SVTime outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) lightweight models and rivals large models with 10^3 fewer parameters than LVMs, while enabling efficient training and inference in low-resource settings.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 30, 2025

Large Population Models

Many of society's most pressing challenges, from pandemic response to supply chain disruptions to climate adaptation, emerge from the collective behavior of millions of autonomous agents making decisions over time. Large Population Models (LPMs) offer an approach to understand these complex systems by simulating entire populations with realistic behaviors and interactions at unprecedented scale. LPMs extend traditional modeling approaches through three key innovations: computational methods that efficiently simulate millions of agents simultaneously, mathematical frameworks that learn from diverse real-world data streams, and privacy-preserving communication protocols that bridge virtual and physical environments. This allows researchers to observe how agent behavior aggregates into system-level outcomes and test interventions before real-world implementation. While current AI advances primarily focus on creating "digital humans" with sophisticated individual capabilities, LPMs develop "digital societies" where the richness of interactions reveals emergent phenomena. By bridging individual agent behavior and population-scale dynamics, LPMs offer a complementary path in AI research illuminating collective intelligence and providing testing grounds for policies and social innovations before real-world deployment. We discuss the technical foundations and some open problems here. LPMs are implemented by the AgentTorch framework (github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch)

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025

The impact of internal variability on benchmarking deep learning climate emulators

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 9, 2024