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Oct 21

Are Large Language Models Temporally Grounded?

Are Large language models (LLMs) temporally grounded? Since LLMs cannot perceive and interact with the environment, it is impossible to answer this question directly. Instead, we provide LLMs with textual narratives and probe them with respect to their common-sense knowledge of the structure and duration of events, their ability to order events along a timeline, and self-consistency within their temporal model (e.g., temporal relations such as after and before are mutually exclusive for any pair of events). We evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (such as LLaMA 2 and GPT-4) on three tasks reflecting these abilities. Generally, we find that LLMs lag significantly behind both human performance as well as small-scale, specialised LMs. In-context learning, instruction tuning, and chain-of-thought prompting reduce this gap only to a limited degree. Crucially, LLMs struggle the most with self-consistency, displaying incoherent behaviour in at least 27.23% of their predictions. Contrary to expectations, we also find that scaling the model size does not guarantee positive gains in performance. To explain these results, we study the sources from which LLMs may gather temporal information: we find that sentence ordering in unlabelled texts, available during pre-training, is only weakly correlated with event ordering. Moreover, public instruction tuning mixtures contain few temporal tasks. Hence, we conclude that current LLMs lack a consistent temporal model of textual narratives. Code, datasets, and LLM outputs are available at https://github.com/yfqiu-nlp/temporal-llms.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 14, 2023

PULSE: An Executable Contract Language for Spatiotemporal Knowledge Graph Engineering

Knowledge graph engineering often distributes accepted state, observations, constraints, processes, and hypothetical scenarios across artifacts whose combined execution contract remains external. We present PULSE, an Object-Process-Methodology-inspired language that localizes four operational roles and their write effects in one typed runtime. Here, modes denote operational roles rather than modal or deontic logic. The implemented contract fixes evidence non-overwrite, branch isolation, grounded multi-subject timers, guarded state change, and declaration-ranked event ordering over time and space; an external runner still decides whether evidence becomes an authoritative move. GeoSPARQL, SOSA, and SHACL remain generated views. A core calculus gives an effect-confinement lemma and six safety properties. Lean 4 checks kernel analogues for positions, evidence, clocks, monitors, atomicity, and branch source retention; 88 tests, 3,534 bounded checks, and 32 Lean/Python runtime-kernel cases bound the implementation claim to the checked cases. First-author implementations of a standards composition and a separate Sismic statechart reproduce the tested cold-chain trace. Across 37,440 generated temporal traces, PULSE matches a separate workflow and distinguishes ten single-field mutants. On the complete NOAA IBTrACS since1980 subset it agrees with GEOS and an event sweep on 1,476,290 transition-zone pairs, including 4,800 sampled and 12,831 duration-qualified events. Project-specific GeoSPARQL probes measure interface coverage. Overall, the results support contract localization, safety arguments, and trace parity for the tested fragment; language superiority and usability remain outside the evaluation.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 25

WaveformQA: Benchmarking LLM Temporal Reasoning on Digital Waveforms

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in code generation and reasoning, yet their ability to perform temporal reasoning over digital waveform data remains largely unexplored. Although reasoning over digital waveforms is a critical bottleneck in design verification, existing benchmarks primarily evaluate hardware description language (HDL) code generation and use waveforms only as supplementary context. This paper presents WaveformQA, an open-source question-answering benchmark for evaluating LLM temporal reasoning over digital waveforms. The benchmark comprises 360 questions with programmatically generated ground truths across eight categories of varying difficulty, including questions targeting multi-signal correlation and event ordering. Waveforms are generated from open-source design implementations, ensuring reproducibility and grounding the benchmark in real hardware behavior. Evaluation of frontier LLMs reveals that while models achieve reasonable accuracy on simple queries, performance degrades due to context window limitations and reasoning difficulties on complex temporal and multi-step questions. In addition, we show that an event-time JSON representation of waveforms improves LLM reasoning accuracy versus the standardized value change dump (VCD) format. The open-source framework supports extending to new question categories and importing new waveform sources, enabling researchers to rapidly prototype temporal reasoning experiments.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 21

Forecasting Clinical Risk from Textual Time Series: Structuring Narratives for Temporal AI in Healthcare

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

EgoMemReason: A Memory-Driven Reasoning Benchmark for Long-Horizon Egocentric Video Understanding

Next-generation visual assistants, such as smart glasses, embodied agents, and always-on life-logging systems, must reason over an entire day or more of continuous visual experience. In ultra-long video settings, relevant information is sparsely distributed across hours or days, making memory a fundamental challenge: models must accumulate information over time, recall prior states, track temporal order, and abstract recurring patterns. However, existing week-long video benchmarks are primarily designed for perception and recognition, such as moment localization or global summarization, rather than reasoning that requires integrating evidence across multiple days. To address this gap, we introduce EgoMemReason, a comprehensive benchmark that systematically evaluates week-long egocentric video understanding through memory-driven reasoning. EgoMemReason evaluates three complementary memory types: entity memory, tracking how object states evolve and change across days; event memory, recalling and ordering activities separated by hours or days; and behavior memory, abstracting recurring patterns from sparse, repeated observations over the whole week period. EgoMemReason comprises 500 questions across three memory types and six core challenges, with an average of 5.1 video segments of evidence per question and 25.9 hours of memory backtracking. We evaluate EgoMemReason on 17 methods across MLLMs and agentic frameworks, revealing that even the best model achieves only 39.6% overall accuracy. Further analysis shows that the three memory types fail for distinct reasons and that performance degrades as evidence spans longer temporal horizons, revealing that long-horizon memory remains far from solved. We believe EgoMemReason establishes a strong foundation for evaluating and advancing long-context, memory-aware multimodal systems.

  • 9 authors
·
May 10

Logic Induced High-Order Reasoning Network for Event-Event Relation Extraction

To understand a document with multiple events, event-event relation extraction (ERE) emerges as a crucial task, aiming to discern how natural events temporally or structurally associate with each other. To achieve this goal, our work addresses the problems of temporal event relation extraction (TRE) and subevent relation extraction (SRE). The latest methods for such problems have commonly built document-level event graphs for global reasoning across sentences. However, the edges between events are usually derived from external tools heuristically, which are not always reliable and may introduce noise. Moreover, they are not capable of preserving logical constraints among event relations, e.g., coreference constraint, symmetry constraint and conjunction constraint. These constraints guarantee coherence between different relation types,enabling the generation of a uniffed event evolution graph. In this work, we propose a novel method named LogicERE, which performs high-order event relation reasoning through modeling logic constraints. Speciffcally, different from conventional event graphs, we design a logic constraint induced graph (LCG) without any external tools. LCG involves event nodes where the interactions among them can model the coreference constraint, and event pairs nodes where the interactions among them can retain the symmetry constraint and conjunction constraint. Then we perform high-order reasoning on LCG with relational graph transformer to obtain enhanced event and event pair embeddings. Finally, we further incorporate logic constraint information via a joint logic learning module. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 19, 2024

The Impact of Element Ordering on LM Agent Performance

There has been a surge of interest in language model agents that can navigate virtual environments such as the web or desktop. To navigate such environments, agents benefit from information on the various elements (e.g., buttons, text, or images) present. It remains unclear which element attributes have the greatest impact on agent performance, especially in environments that only provide a graphical representation (i.e., pixels). Here we find that the ordering in which elements are presented to the language model is surprisingly impactful--randomizing element ordering in a webpage degrades agent performance comparably to removing all visible text from an agent's state representation. While a webpage provides a hierarchical ordering of elements, there is no such ordering when parsing elements directly from pixels. Moreover, as tasks become more challenging and models more sophisticated, our experiments suggest that the impact of ordering increases. Finding an effective ordering is non-trivial. We investigate the impact of various element ordering methods in web and desktop environments. We find that dimensionality reduction provides a viable ordering for pixel-only environments. We train a UI element detection model to derive elements from pixels and apply our findings to an agent benchmark--OmniACT--where we only have access to pixels. Our method completes more than two times as many tasks on average relative to the previous state-of-the-art.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 18, 2024

Predicting the Ordering of Characters in Japanese Historical Documents

Japan is a unique country with a distinct cultural heritage, which is reflected in billions of historical documents that have been preserved. However, the change in Japanese writing system in 1900 made these documents inaccessible for the general public. A major research project has been to make these historical documents accessible and understandable. An increasing amount of research has focused on the character recognition task and the location of characters on image, yet less research has focused on how to predict the sequential ordering of the characters. This is because sequence in classical Japanese is very different from modern Japanese. Ordering characters into a sequence is important for making the document text easily readable and searchable. Additionally, it is a necessary step for any kind of natural language processing on the data (e.g. machine translation, language modeling, and word embeddings). We explore a few approaches to the task of predicting the sequential ordering of the characters: one using simple hand-crafted rules, another using hand-crafted rules with adaptive thresholds, and another using a deep recurrent sequence model trained with teacher forcing. We provide a quantitative and qualitative comparison of these techniques as well as their distinct trade-offs. Our best-performing system has an accuracy of 98.65\% and has a perfect accuracy on 49\% of the books in our dataset, suggesting that the technique is able to predict the order of the characters well enough for many tasks.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 11, 2021

Order Matters: Sequence to sequence for sets

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 19, 2015

Skill-it! A Data-Driven Skills Framework for Understanding and Training Language Models

The quality of training data impacts the performance of pre-trained large language models (LMs). Given a fixed budget of tokens, we study how to best select data that leads to good downstream model performance across tasks. We develop a new framework based on a simple hypothesis: just as humans acquire interdependent skills in a deliberate order, language models also follow a natural order when learning a set of skills from their training data. If such an order exists, it can be utilized for improved understanding of LMs and for data-efficient training. Using this intuition, our framework formalizes the notion of a skill and of an ordered set of skills in terms of the associated data. First, using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that these ordered skill sets exist, and that their existence enables more advanced skills to be learned with less data when we train on their prerequisite skills. Second, using our proposed framework, we introduce an online data sampling algorithm, Skill-It, over mixtures of skills for both continual pre-training and fine-tuning regimes, where the objective is to efficiently learn multiple skills in the former and an individual skill in the latter. On the LEGO synthetic in the continual pre-training setting, Skill-It obtains 36.5 points higher accuracy than random sampling. On the Natural Instructions dataset in the fine-tuning setting, Skill-It reduces the validation loss on the target skill by 13.6% versus training on data associated with the target skill itself. We apply our skills framework on the recent RedPajama dataset to continually pre-train a 3B-parameter LM, achieving higher accuracy on the LM Evaluation Harness with 1B tokens than the baseline approach of sampling uniformly over data sources with 3B tokens.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 26, 2023

Self-Attentive Hawkes Processes

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events will happen next and when. A de facto standard mathematical framework to do this is the Hawkes process. In order to enhance expressivity of multivariate Hawkes processes, conventional statistical methods and deep recurrent networks have been employed to modify its intensity function. The former is highly interpretable and requires small size of training data but relies on correct model design while the latter has less dependency on prior knowledge and is more powerful in capturing complicated patterns. We leverage pros and cons of these models and propose a self-attentive Hawkes process(SAHP). The proposed method adapts self-attention to fit the intensity function of Hawkes processes. This design has two benefits:(1) compared with conventional statistical methods, the SAHP is more powerful to identify complicated dependency relationships between temporal events; (2)compared with deep recurrent networks, the self-attention mechanism is able to capture longer historical information, and is more interpretable because the learnt attention weight tensor shows contributions of each historical event. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 17, 2019

Order Matters: Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Macro Placement Sequences via Proxy-Guided LLM Evolution

Macro placement is a fundamental step in modern chip physical design, playing a crucial role in determining the solution quality of high-dimensional combinatorial optimization problems. Despite recent advancements in machine learning for spatial coordinate determination, the temporal dimension of placement sequencing remains largely governed by static heuristics. In this work, we demonstrate that the placement sequence is not merely a preprocessing step but a decisive factor in optimization, where suboptimal early decisions trigger irreversible domino effects that constrain the solution space. To harness this unexplored dimension, we propose OrderPlace, a proxy-guided LLM evolution framework for automatically discovering macro placement order strategies. Instead of relying on manually crafted heuristics such as area- or connectivity-based ordering, OrderPlace explores a broader space of code-level policies, ranging from static scoring metrics to dynamic physics-inspired mechanisms. To mitigate the prohibitive cost of evaluating sequences, we introduce a lightweight proxy evaluation mechanism that efficiently filters candidates using a deterministic greedy probe. Experimental results on the standard ISPD 2005 benchmarks demonstrate that OrderPlace discovers novel ordering strategies. Compared with WireMask-EA and the state-of-the-art method EGPlace, OrderPlace reduces wirelength by 34.04\% and 14.08\%, respectively.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 7

Modeling Layout Reading Order as Ordering Relations for Visually-rich Document Understanding

Modeling and leveraging layout reading order in visually-rich documents (VrDs) is critical in document intelligence as it captures the rich structure semantics within documents. Previous works typically formulated layout reading order as a permutation of layout elements, i.e. a sequence containing all the layout elements. However, we argue that this formulation does not adequately convey the complete reading order information in the layout, which may potentially lead to performance decline in downstream VrD tasks. To address this issue, we propose to model the layout reading order as ordering relations over the set of layout elements, which have sufficient expressive capability for the complete reading order information. To enable empirical evaluation on methods towards the improved form of reading order prediction (ROP), we establish a comprehensive benchmark dataset including the reading order annotation as relations over layout elements, together with a relation-extraction-based method that outperforms previous methods. Moreover, to highlight the practical benefits of introducing the improved form of layout reading order, we propose a reading-order-relation-enhancing pipeline to improve model performance on any arbitrary VrD task by introducing additional reading order relation inputs. Comprehensive results demonstrate that the pipeline generally benefits downstream VrD tasks: (1) with utilizing the reading order relation information, the enhanced downstream models achieve SOTA results on both two task settings of the targeted dataset; (2) with utilizing the pseudo reading order information generated by the proposed ROP model, the performance of the enhanced models has improved across all three models and eight cross-domain VrD-IE/QA task settings without targeted optimization.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 28, 2024

EasyTPP: Towards Open Benchmarking Temporal Point Processes

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

  • 12 authors
·
Jul 16, 2023

Janus-Q: End-to-End Event-Driven Trading via Hierarchical-Gated Reward Modeling

Financial market movements are often driven by discrete financial events conveyed through news, whose impacts are heterogeneous, abrupt, and difficult to capture under purely numerical prediction objectives. These limitations have motivated growing interest in using textual information as the primary source of trading signals in learning-based systems. Two key challenges hinder existing approaches: (1) the absence of large-scale, event-centric datasets that jointly model news semantics and statistically grounded market reactions, and (2) the misalignment between language model reasoning and financially valid trading behavior under dynamic market conditions. To address these challenges, we propose Janus-Q, an end-to-end event-driven trading framework that elevates financial news events from auxiliary signals to primary decision units. Janus-Q unifies event-centric data construction and model optimization under a two-stage paradigm. Stage I focuses on event-centric data construction, building a large-scale financial news event dataset comprising 62,400 articles annotated with 10 fine-grained event types, associated stocks, sentiment labels, and event-driven cumulative abnormal return (CAR). Stage II performs decision-oriented fine-tuning, combining supervised learning with reinforcement learning guided by a Hierarchical Gated Reward Model (HGRM), which explicitly captures trade-offs among multiple trading objectives. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Janus-Q achieves more consistent, interpretable, and profitable trading decisions than market indices and LLM baselines, improving the Sharpe Ratio by up to 102.0% while increasing direction accuracy by over 17.5% compared to the strongest competing strategies.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 26

Causal Graph based Event Reasoning using Semantic Relation Experts

Understanding how events in a scenario causally connect with each other is important for effectively modeling and reasoning about events. But event reasoning remains a difficult challenge, and despite recent advances, Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle to accurately identify causal connections between events. This struggle leads to poor performance on deeper reasoning tasks like event forecasting and timeline understanding. To address this challenge, we investigate the generation of causal event graphs (e.g., A enables B) as a parallel mechanism to help LLMs explicitly represent causality during inference. This paper evaluates both how to generate correct graphs as well as how graphs can assist reasoning. We propose a collaborative approach to causal graph generation where we use LLMs to simulate experts that focus on specific semantic relations. The experts engage in multiple rounds of discussions which are then consolidated by a final expert. Then, to demonstrate the utility of causal graphs, we use them on multiple downstream applications, and also introduce a new explainable event prediction task that requires a causal chain of events in the explanation. These explanations are more informative and coherent than baseline generations. Finally, our overall approach not finetuned on any downstream task, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art models on both forecasting and next event prediction tasks.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 6, 2025

Compute Globally, Materialize Locally: The Memory Contract of Sparse Event-KV

Long-horizon agents increasingly reuse their KV cache as memory: a serving system keeps a subset of cached entries and drops the rest. Eviction and episodic-memory schemes therefore rest on a premise rarely tested directly, that a retained event is still informative once the observations that produced it are gone. We test it by omitting one earlier observation from what is served, across otherwise identical agent histories. Among items sensitive to that observation, the answer overwhelmingly follows the omitted value, though no served span says which value is correct. We call this semantic materialization: a downstream event's cached rows act as an independently servable view of computation whose inputs are gone. It can also be written on purpose. A deliberately phrased, answer-free event raises donor-aligned recovery from 6% to 51% on Qwen3-8B without ever naming the value, whereas passively harvesting natural mentions from long-term dialog yields no detected advantage. What such a row carries is specific and bounded. Compact state survives, larger payloads decay toward chance, and whether a construction writes at all turns on phrasing rather than on meaning alone, so two phrasings the model comprehends equally well can diverge sharply. The result is a memory contract for sparse event-KV serving: what to write, where it lands, and what survives once the source is gone. For anyone who evicts the corollary is that dropping a source event and observing no accuracy loss does not show the source was unnecessary.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 25 2

When Do Curricula Work?

Inspired by human learning, researchers have proposed ordering examples during training based on their difficulty. Both curriculum learning, exposing a network to easier examples early in training, and anti-curriculum learning, showing the most difficult examples first, have been suggested as improvements to the standard i.i.d. training. In this work, we set out to investigate the relative benefits of ordered learning. We first investigate the implicit curricula resulting from architectural and optimization bias and find that samples are learned in a highly consistent order. Next, to quantify the benefit of explicit curricula, we conduct extensive experiments over thousands of orderings spanning three kinds of learning: curriculum, anti-curriculum, and random-curriculum -- in which the size of the training dataset is dynamically increased over time, but the examples are randomly ordered. We find that for standard benchmark datasets, curricula have only marginal benefits, and that randomly ordered samples perform as well or better than curricula and anti-curricula, suggesting that any benefit is entirely due to the dynamic training set size. Inspired by common use cases of curriculum learning in practice, we investigate the role of limited training time budget and noisy data in the success of curriculum learning. Our experiments demonstrate that curriculum, but not anti-curriculum can indeed improve the performance either with limited training time budget or in existence of noisy data.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 8, 2021

Event2Vec: Processing Neuromorphic Events Directly by Representations in Vector Space

Neuromorphic event cameras possess superior temporal resolution, power efficiency, and dynamic range compared to traditional cameras. However, their asynchronous and sparse data format poses a significant challenge for conventional deep learning methods. Existing methods either convert the events into dense synchronous frame representations for processing by powerful CNNs or Transformers, but lose the asynchronous, sparse and high temporal resolution characteristics of events during the conversion process; or adopt irregular models such as sparse convolution, spiking neural networks, or graph neural networks to process the irregular event representations but fail to take full advantage of GPU acceleration.Inspired by word-to-vector models, we draw an analogy between words and events to introduce event2vec, a novel representation that allows neural networks to process events directly. This approach is fully compatible with the parallel processing capabilities of Transformers. We demonstrate the effectiveness of event2vec on the DVS Gesture, ASL-DVS, and DVS-Lip benchmarks, showing that event2vec is remarkably parameter-efficient, features high throughput and low latency, and achieves high accuracy even with an extremely low number of events or low spatial resolutions. Event2vec introduces a novel paradigm by demonstrating for the first time that sparse, irregular event data can be directly integrated into high-throughput Transformer architectures. This breakthrough resolves the long-standing conflict between maintaining data sparsity and maximizing GPU efficiency, offering a promising balance for real-time, low-latency neuromorphic vision tasks. The code is provided in https://github.com/Intelligent-Computing-Lab-Panda/event2vec.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 21, 2025

From Ideas to Actions: A Public-Data Decision-Support Toolchain Across the Venture Lifecycle

Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 13

Event-Guided Procedure Planning from Instructional Videos with Text Supervision

In this work, we focus on the task of procedure planning from instructional videos with text supervision, where a model aims to predict an action sequence to transform the initial visual state into the goal visual state. A critical challenge of this task is the large semantic gap between observed visual states and unobserved intermediate actions, which is ignored by previous works. Specifically, this semantic gap refers to that the contents in the observed visual states are semantically different from the elements of some action text labels in a procedure. To bridge this semantic gap, we propose a novel event-guided paradigm, which first infers events from the observed states and then plans out actions based on both the states and predicted events. Our inspiration comes from that planning a procedure from an instructional video is to complete a specific event and a specific event usually involves specific actions. Based on the proposed paradigm, we contribute an Event-guided Prompting-based Procedure Planning (E3P) model, which encodes event information into the sequential modeling process to support procedure planning. To further consider the strong action associations within each event, our E3P adopts a mask-and-predict approach for relation mining, incorporating a probabilistic masking scheme for regularization. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 17, 2023

A Type-and-Effect System for Temporal Dependency Analysis of Render-based Reactive Programs

Reactive programming frameworks such as React allow developers to build interactive applications by declaratively specifying how outputs depend on changing inputs. Although this model makes it easy to reason about what an application computes, the temporal behavior of reactive programs remains difficult to understand and verify. Applications implicitly rely on timing assumptions buried in framework runtimes, leading to subtle bugs such as stale reads, transient inconsistencies, order-dependent behavior, and unintended feedback cycles. To address these challenges, this paper presents Willow, a core calculus for reactive programming inspired by React. Willow gives a time-aware operational semantics that models computation in terms of renders, the fundamental evaluation step in which components produce user interface descriptions, and pairs it with a novel type-and-effect system that statically tracks timing behavior as effects. A "next" modality expresses delays measured not only in renders but in any unit the host environment exposes--renders, network requests, or milliseconds. A family of modalities tracks the lifecycle of event handlers: when they are registered, when they fire, when pending events are canceled and when handlers are removed. A key insight is that the resulting effects form a temporal dependency graph, letting standard graph algorithms statically detect render cascades and inter-render loops that cause non-termination or performance degradation. We formalize Willow and prove preservation of the effect system with respect to the time-aware semantics. We also implement a prototype checker with automatic effect inference and evaluate it on representative reactive patterns such as debouncing, form inputs, and API-driven updates. Our results demonstrate that time-aware typing provides a practical foundation for reasoning about the temporal correctness of reactive programs.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 28

Clarification Is Not Correction: LLMs Fail to Let Go

Dialogue failures in language models are usually framed as memory failures: context too long, summaries lossy, a constraint forgotten. We argue this misses a deeper problem: in many conversations the model does not forget, it commits too early. An ambiguous early turn collapses into a single hidden interpretation, and later clarification is filtered through that commitment. We call this early posterior collapse: unresolved user intent collapsing into a committed task state before ambiguity is resolved. We study it with controlled dialogue tasks in writing, planning, and coding using Gemini-2.5-Pro and Gemini-2.5-Flash. Across thousands of trials, the same information in different orders yields different outcomes, even when the final dialogue contains equivalent task-relevant information. This order effect suggests later clarification is treated as extra context rather than a corrective signal: it refines a stale task state without invalidating it. Coding tasks are especially vulnerable, suggesting early assumptions get embedded in structured artifacts such as interfaces and control flow. Standard prompting and memory strategies do not reliably help: summaries can collapse ambiguity, and chain-of-thought can reduce explicit wrong commitment in reasoning traces without improving final task success. These findings motivate uncertainty-preserving state management. If assistants cannot let go of early interpretations, robustness cannot rely on post hoc correction alone; it must keep ambiguous early turns from hardening into one task state. Assistants should hold tentative hypotheses while ambiguity remains, ask before executing when high-impact ambiguity persists, and rebuild from a revised state when later evidence invalidates an earlier reading. Rather than one prompting fix, we aim to redirect research for interactive LLMs from retaining more context toward preserving uncertainty.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 20

EA-VTR: Event-Aware Video-Text Retrieval

Understanding the content of events occurring in the video and their inherent temporal logic is crucial for video-text retrieval. However, web-crawled pre-training datasets often lack sufficient event information, and the widely adopted video-level cross-modal contrastive learning also struggles to capture detailed and complex video-text event alignment. To address these challenges, we make improvements from both data and model perspectives. In terms of pre-training data, we focus on supplementing the missing specific event content and event temporal transitions with the proposed event augmentation strategies. Based on the event-augmented data, we construct a novel Event-Aware Video-Text Retrieval model, ie, EA-VTR, which achieves powerful video-text retrieval ability through superior video event awareness. EA-VTR can efficiently encode frame-level and video-level visual representations simultaneously, enabling detailed event content and complex event temporal cross-modal alignment, ultimately enhancing the comprehensive understanding of video events. Our method not only significantly outperforms existing approaches on multiple datasets for Text-to-Video Retrieval and Video Action Recognition tasks, but also demonstrates superior event content perceive ability on Multi-event Video-Text Retrieval and Video Moment Retrieval tasks, as well as outstanding event temporal logic understanding ability on Test of Time task.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 10, 2024

Just read twice: closing the recall gap for recurrent language models

Recurrent large language models that compete with Transformers in language modeling perplexity are emerging at a rapid rate (e.g., Mamba, RWKV). Excitingly, these architectures use a constant amount of memory during inference. However, due to the limited memory, recurrent LMs cannot recall and use all the information in long contexts leading to brittle in-context learning (ICL) quality. A key challenge for efficient LMs is selecting what information to store versus discard. In this work, we observe the order in which information is shown to the LM impacts the selection difficulty. To formalize this, we show that the hardness of information recall reduces to the hardness of a problem called set disjointness (SD), a quintessential problem in communication complexity that requires a streaming algorithm (e.g., recurrent model) to decide whether inputted sets are disjoint. We empirically and theoretically show that the recurrent memory required to solve SD changes with set order, i.e., whether the smaller set appears first in-context. Our analysis suggests, to mitigate the reliance on data order, we can put information in the right order in-context or process prompts non-causally. Towards that end, we propose: (1) JRT-Prompt, where context gets repeated multiple times in the prompt, effectively showing the model all data orders. This gives 11.0 pm 1.3 points of improvement, averaged across 16 recurrent LMs and the 6 ICL tasks, with 11.9times higher throughput than FlashAttention-2 for generation prefill (length 32k, batch size 16, NVidia H100). We then propose (2) JRT-RNN, which uses non-causal prefix-linear-attention to process prompts and provides 99% of Transformer quality at 360M params., 30B tokens and 96% at 1.3B params., 50B tokens on average across the tasks, with 19.2times higher throughput for prefill than FA2.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 7, 2024

EventConnector: Mining Social Event Relations through Temporal Graphs

Understanding and retrieving related real-world events based on their temporal dynamics is a fundamental challenge in time-sensitive applications such as forecasting, information retrieval, and social analysis. Existing methods often rely on semantic similarity or global time-series alignment, which overlook the transient and directional dependencies that frequently underlie real-world correlations. In this work, we introduce EventConnector, a framework that constructs a temporal event graph capturing localized co-fluctuations and lead-lag relationships between events through their time-series trajectories. We further propose EC-Fusion, an adaptive retrieval mechanism that fuses EventConnector's graph-based scores with a complementary Granger-causal signal via a graph-quality-aware mixing weight. Across two real-world prediction market benchmarks (Polymarket and Kalshi) and nine forecasting architectures evaluated over three random seeds, EC-Fusion is the best non-oracle retrieval method on 17/18 model--dataset cells, reducing RMSE by 6.87% on average (up to 10.86%) over the strongest comparable retrieval baseline, with statistical significance at p < 0.01 after Holm--Bonferroni correction. These results highlight the effectiveness of temporally grounded graph modeling, augmented with causal-signal fusion, in capturing latent event relationships beyond what semantic similarity or traditional alignment techniques can offer.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 12

TabSeq: A Framework for Deep Learning on Tabular Data via Sequential Ordering

Effective analysis of tabular data still poses a significant problem in deep learning, mainly because features in tabular datasets are often heterogeneous and have different levels of relevance. This work introduces TabSeq, a novel framework for the sequential ordering of features, addressing the vital necessity to optimize the learning process. Features are not always equally informative, and for certain deep learning models, their random arrangement can hinder the model's learning capacity. Finding the optimum sequence order for such features could improve the deep learning models' learning process. The novel feature ordering technique we provide in this work is based on clustering and incorporates both local ordering and global ordering. It is designed to be used with a multi-head attention mechanism in a denoising autoencoder network. Our framework uses clustering to align comparable features and improve data organization. Multi-head attention focuses on essential characteristics, whereas the denoising autoencoder highlights important aspects by rebuilding from distorted inputs. This method improves the capability to learn from tabular data while lowering redundancy. Our research, demonstrating improved performance through appropriate feature sequence rearrangement using raw antibody microarray and two other real-world biomedical datasets, validates the impact of feature ordering. These results demonstrate that feature ordering can be a viable approach to improved deep learning of tabular data.

Event Extraction in Basque: Typologically motivated Cross-Lingual Transfer-Learning Analysis

Cross-lingual transfer-learning is widely used in Event Extraction for low-resource languages and involves a Multilingual Language Model that is trained in a source language and applied to the target language. This paper studies whether the typological similarity between source and target languages impacts the performance of cross-lingual transfer, an under-explored topic. We first focus on Basque as the target language, which is an ideal target language because it is typologically different from surrounding languages. Our experiments on three Event Extraction tasks show that the shared linguistic characteristic between source and target languages does have an impact on transfer quality. Further analysis of 72 language pairs reveals that for tasks that involve token classification such as entity and event trigger identification, common writing script and morphological features produce higher quality cross-lingual transfer. In contrast, for tasks involving structural prediction like argument extraction, common word order is the most relevant feature. In addition, we show that when increasing the training size, not all the languages scale in the same way in the cross-lingual setting. To perform the experiments we introduce EusIE, an event extraction dataset for Basque, which follows the Multilingual Event Extraction dataset (MEE). The dataset and code are publicly available.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 9, 2024

ArrowGEV: Grounding Events in Video via Learning the Arrow of Time

Grounding events in videos serves as a fundamental capability in video analysis. While Vision Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly employed for this task, existing approaches predominantly train models to associate events with timestamps in the forward video only. This paradigm hinders VLMs from capturing the inherent temporal structure and directionality of events, thereby limiting robustness and generalization. To address this limitation, inspired by the arrow of time in physics, which characterizes the intrinsic directionality of temporal processes, we propose ArrowGEV, a reinforcement learning framework that explicitly models temporal directionality in events to improve both event grounding and temporal directionality understanding in VLMs. Specifically, we categorize events into time-sensitive (e.g., putting down a bag) and time-insensitive (e.g., holding a towel in the left hand). The former denote events whose reversal substantially alters their meaning, while the latter remain semantically unchanged under reversal. For time-sensitive events, ArrowGEV introduces a reward that encourages VLMs to discriminate between forward and backward videos, whereas for time-insensitive events, it enforces consistent grounding across both directions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ArrowGEV not only improves grounding precision and temporal directionality recognition, but also enhances general video understanding and reasoning ability.

tencent Tencent
·
Apr 15

TempAct: Advancing Temporal Plausibility in Autoregressive Video Generation via Planner-Executor RL

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion models enable low-latency streaming generation by synthesizing videos chunk by chunk with cached visual context, but this chunk-wise formulation makes temporal instruction following ambiguous. A single global prompt does not specify which sub-event should be realized in each chunk, while naively switching to step-wise prompts often leads to delayed reactions, blended step semantics, and error propagation across prompt transitions. These failures are difficult to address with supervised fine-tuning or distillation alone: SFT suffers from exposure bias, while rollout-based distillation still optimizes low-level denoising or teacher-distribution matching rather than directly enforcing action ordering and prompt-transition correctness. We address these challenges with TempAct, a planner--executor reinforcement learning framework that jointly optimizes temporal decomposition and step-conditioned execution for temporally plausible AR video generation. TempAct uses an LLM planner to explore span-aware step prompts that are executable by the video model, and trains an AR diffusion executor to follow these prompts under its own generated histories. Its key mechanism is hierarchical group exploration: candidate plans form planning groups, and each plan induces an execution group of multiple continuations from a shared visual context, enabling plan-level credit assignment for long-horizon temporal outcomes and executor-level credit assignment for prompt-switch behavior. We further design hierarchical rewards that combine plan-quality and full-video temporal feedback for the planner with local transition-level step-following rewards, aesthetic regularization, and KL constraints for the executor. Experiments on Self-Forcing and LongLive show that TempAct improves temporal consistency while preserving overall visual quality.

  • 8 authors
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Jun 25

SQLNet: Generating Structured Queries From Natural Language Without Reinforcement Learning

Synthesizing SQL queries from natural language is a long-standing open problem and has been attracting considerable interest recently. Toward solving the problem, the de facto approach is to employ a sequence-to-sequence-style model. Such an approach will necessarily require the SQL queries to be serialized. Since the same SQL query may have multiple equivalent serializations, training a sequence-to-sequence-style model is sensitive to the choice from one of them. This phenomenon is documented as the "order-matters" problem. Existing state-of-the-art approaches rely on reinforcement learning to reward the decoder when it generates any of the equivalent serializations. However, we observe that the improvement from reinforcement learning is limited. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, i.e., SQLNet, to fundamentally solve this problem by avoiding the sequence-to-sequence structure when the order does not matter. In particular, we employ a sketch-based approach where the sketch contains a dependency graph so that one prediction can be done by taking into consideration only the previous predictions that it depends on. In addition, we propose a sequence-to-set model as well as the column attention mechanism to synthesize the query based on the sketch. By combining all these novel techniques, we show that SQLNet can outperform the prior art by 9% to 13% on the WikiSQL task.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 13, 2017

Org-Agent: Beyond Personal Assistants Towards Organizational Agents

Language model agents serving organizations must coordinate requests from multiple users while using knowledge distributed across their interactions. We identify two complementary capabilities for this setting, namely cross-user interaction and decision-making, as well as cross-user memory and knowledge use. Both capabilities are governed by organizational constraints across three aspects: user identity, authority, and access permissions; the attribution and temporal validity of information; and rules for resolving conflicting requirements across users and completion requirements for joint decisions. These constraints shape what information or decisions must be obtained before an action can proceed and what conditions must be satisfied during its execution. Motivated by this, we introduce Org-Agent, a unified constraint-centric reasoning framework that organizes task execution in three stages. Specifically, Org-Agent decomposes a task into atomic subtasks and constructs a task dependency graph whose edges encode the dependencies among them. Building on this graph, it schedules the subtasks in dependency order through topological sorting. It then executes each subtask while accounting for the task's constraints, supported by evidence-acquisition and memory-management tools. Experiments on MUSES-Bench and GroupMemBench demonstrate the effectiveness of Org-Agent on both capabilities, and ablations further support the contributions of dependency modeling and tool use.

EventSync: Event-Driven Memory Updates for History-Dependent Manipulation

History-dependent robotic manipulation requires task context and interaction history, as the current observation alone is insufficient to determine the next action. Hierarchical frameworks use task memory for high-level subgoal reasoning and low-level policies for execution. However, memory updates require accurate completion assessment: similar observations may correspond to different execution phases, and prematurely recording completion can mislead subsequent subgoal reasoning. We present EventSync, a hierarchical framework that coordinates task reasoning and action execution through event-driven memory updates. A vision-language model generates subgoals from task plans and interaction history, while a vision-language-action model executes them. A lightweight Event Monitor combines visual observations with end-effector trajectories to determine whether the current subgoal is complete. The framework records the current subgoal in its completed-subgoal history and triggers subsequent reasoning only after obtaining completion evidence. With visual history in the executor, EventSync achieves 64.5% overall success on RoboMME, exceeding the best baseline reported in the benchmark by 20.0 percentage points. Further analysis shows that this update mechanism helps build a reliable completed-subgoal history. Experiments on four real-robot tasks with different memory requirements validate the framework's effectiveness in real-world robotic manipulation.

  • 7 authors
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Oct 19

EHR2Trace: Auditable EHR Data Infrastructure for Patient World Models and Clinical Agents

Patient world models and clinical agents aim to predict changes in patients' health and support clinical work. Developing these systems requires reliable histories of patient conditions, treatments, and the information available at each decision. Electronic health records (EHRs) contain these histories, but differences in how events are recorded make them difficult to use consistently. We present EHR2Trace, a system that converts EHRs from different sources into traceable patient events for model training and evaluation. It links events to source records, separates event time from information availability, and distinguishes medication orders, dispensing, and administration. A shared event representation supports both OMOP and MEDS exports, with automated validation and reproducible builds. Across three clinical datasets, EHR2Trace converted 846.4 million events, with every applicable check passing except one unit-consistency check on MIMIC-IV, and detected all 28 injected faults. A controlled prediction experiment showed that assigning later diagnoses to admission time substantially inflated measured performance, and that a model trained on such data lost accuracy when deployed on histories filtered by availability. EHR2Trace provides a reusable data foundation for patient world models and clinical agents, helping researchers inspect patient histories, check conversion decisions, and evaluate models with explicit data rules.

  • 4 authors
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Sep 17