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Oct 21

Evidence-Consistent Generative Detection under Scenario-Level Distribution Shift

Conventional in-distribution evaluation can overestimate robustness when training and test data share recurring task-specific patterns or surface cues. This risk is especially relevant in social-engineering fraud detection, where attackers can preserve malicious intent while changing the scenario, impersonated entity, or wording. We study this problem as scenario-level out-of-distribution (SL-OOD) detection for SMS and voice phishing, where entire attack scenarios are held out from training while the label space remains fixed. This setting tests whether models can generalize to unseen attack scenarios using decision-relevant evidence rather than familiar scenario-specific cues. Using this SL-OOD evaluation, we find that high in-distribution performance does not reliably predict held-out robustness across feature-, encoder-, and decoder-based baselines. We interpret this gap as scenario memorization: reliance on recurring scenario-specific lexical or entity cues rather than decision-relevant evidence. We propose ECoG, an evidence-consistent generative framework that combines evidence-span supervision with a rationale-label consistency objective during training. On the 0.5B decoder, relative to the same backbone trained without consistency regularization, ECoG raises Macro-F1 on OOD challenging instances by 3.22 points, reduces the share of predictions whose generated rationale supports the opposite label by 4.22 points, and increases token-level overlap with reference evidence spans by 8.38 points; the reduction in prediction-rationale inconsistency is consistent across four decoder backbones. These results suggest that compact generative detectors can benefit from evidence supervision and rationale-label consistency under social-engineering shift.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 20

Trust the Model: Compact VLMs as In-Context Judges for Image-Text Data Quality

Vision-language models (VLMs) extend the conventional large language models by integrating visual data, enabling richer multimodal reasoning and significantly broadens the practical applications of AI. However, including visual inputs also brings new challenges in maintaining data quality. Empirical evidence consistently shows that carefully curated and representative training examples often yield superior results compared to simply increasing the quantity of data. Inspired by this observation, we introduce a streamlined data filtration framework that employs a compact VLM, fine-tuned on a high-quality image-caption annotated dataset. This model effectively evaluates and filters potential training samples based on caption and image quality and alignment. Unlike previous approaches, which typically add auxiliary filtration modules on top of existing full-scale VLMs, our method exclusively utilizes the inherent evaluative capability of a purpose-built small VLM. This strategy eliminates the need for extra modules and reduces training overhead. Our lightweight model efficiently filters out inaccurate, noisy web data, improving image-text alignment and caption linguistic fluency. Experimental results show that datasets underwent high-precision filtration using our compact VLM perform on par with, or even surpass, larger and noisier datasets gathered through high-volume web crawling. Thus, our method provides a lightweight yet robust solution for building high-quality vision-language training corpora. \\ Availability and implementation: Our compact VLM filtration model, training data, utility scripts, and Supplementary data (Appendices) are freely available at https://github.com/daulettoibazar/Compact_VLM_Filter.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 27, 2025

Why Do Transformers Fail to Forecast Time Series In-Context?

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 10, 2025 2

Weather Jiu-Jitsu: Exploring the Feasibility of Control Paradigms in Weather Foundation Models

Weather Jiu-Jitsu is a control paradigm for extreme climatological events, inspired by chaos theory. As a proposition, small, precise, targeted, and cost-inexpensive perturbations can redirect trajectories of a large dynamical system. This strategy has been demonstrated analytically in the Lorenz-63 system, where a naturally chaotic trajectory switching between two attractors can be confined to a single attractor, indefinitely, via arbitrarily small perturbations. This paper examines the feasibility of Microsoft's Aurora -- a 1.3 billion parameter global atmospheric model -- as a test bed for this strategy. This paper explores three questions: (1) Is Aurora a reliable enough simulation environment to serve as a meaningful testbed? (2) Are the perturbations required to redirect its trajectories small enough to be physically plausible? (3) Does Aurora's learned latent space (the parametric estimators on climatological attributes) yield any apparent, structured, and/or perhaps interpretable features that can convey a geo/atmospheric response to initial conditions? We find evidence consistent with all three: Aurora's modeled trajectories respond to perturbations beyond measurement drift, the perturbation magnitudes required are small relative to the model's own forecast uncertainty, and its latent representations exhibit directional structure that responds to Jiu-Jitsu-type interventions, even though that structure does not separate extreme from normal states outright. These results should be read as feasibility diagnostics rather than a demonstration of control: we do not implement or test an actual steering intervention on Aurora, and several of our findings, particularly around the model's latent-space geometry, are exploratory.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 29

OS-Helix: Unifying GUI Interaction and Code Execution in Native Computer-Using Agents

Real desktop automation is neither purely visual nor purely programmatic. Agents must understand user-facing interfaces while efficiently manipulating files, scripts, and system state. However, native GUI/code coordination cannot be obtained by prompt-level tool composition. In our preliminary experiments, naively adding a code tool degrades a GUI agent, revealing that GUI/code routing must be internalized through training on high-quality hybrid data. We present OS-Helix, an end-to-end trained multimodal computer-using agent that unifies GUI actions and code execution in one action space. To construct the required supervision, we introduce application-artifact composition, pairing desktop applications with authentic file artifacts to instantiate executable Ubuntu states, and a decoupled instruction/evaluator generation pipeline that produces environment-grounded tasks whose final states can be verified regardless of the solution modality. We cold-start the policy with SFT on filtered hybrid data and further improve it through online RL in live desktop environments. For RL, we propose Step-balanced GSPO, which aggregates importance weight by action step rather than raw assistant tokens to prevent long code actions from dominating heterogeneous-action optimization. On OSWorld-Verified, OS-Helix-27B and OS-Helix-35B-A3B achieve relative improvements of 35.0% and 33.7% over their matched Qwen3.5 hybrid baselines, while OS-Helix-27B-RL further improves by 42.9% to reach 66.44% success. Ablations provide evidence consistent with contributions from learned GUI/code coordination, scalable verifiable supervision, and action step balanced optimization, while demonstrating cross-platform transfer on WindowsAgentArena. Our project homepage is at https://os-copilot.github.io/OS-Helix/.

Measuring Racial Disparities in Rent Growth Under Algorithmic Landlord Concentration in U.S. Metros

The 2024 Department of Justice antitrust complaint against RealPage, Inc. named five major residential REITs for coordinating algorithmic rent pricing across hundreds of thousands of apartment units in major US metropolitan areas. This paper studies whether census-tract-level corporate landlord concentration (CLC), measured from SEC EDGAR 10-K property filings geocoded to census tracts, the first such application in the literature, is associated with rent growth 2019-2023, and whether that association is larger in majority-minority neighborhoods. Rent outcomes are measured using the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). To account for the possibility that corporate landlords preferentially locate in neighborhoods already seeing rent appreciation, all regressions control for a fully novel Algorithmic Housing Burden Index (AHBI), a composite of pre-existing rent burden and market tightness from ACS data. Across 665 census tracts in ten US metropolitan areas, doubling REIT concentration is associated with 2.8 percentage points higher rent growth (p = 0.086, p = 0.030, HC1 robust). This association is significantly stronger in majority-minority tracts. Within the same metro, high-CLC majority-minority tracts are associated with 5.9 percentage points higher rent growth than comparable white tracts (p = 0.039). An XGBoost model predicts 44 percent of out-of-sample rent growth variance, with SHAP analysis independently confirming that CLC's contribution is positive in minority tracts and negative in white tracts. Taken all together, these findings provide the first tract-level evidence consistent with corporate landlord concentration being associated with disproportionately higher rent growth in communities of color.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 24

Where to Look Matters: On-Policy Self-Distillation for Long-Video Understanding

Vision-language models (VLMs) have made substantial progress in long-video understanding, with standard backbone models typically answering questions from frames sampled across the full video. However, as videos become longer, the full-video context inevitably contains more question-irrelevant temporal content, which can distract the model from the evidence needed to answer a specific question. We empirically find that focusing the visual input on short annotated clue intervals containing question-relevant evidence consistently improves prediction accuracy across model scales compared with using the corresponding full videos, while requiring fewer input frames. Based on this finding, we introduce Clue-OPSD, a clue-privileged on-policy self-distillation framework for long-video understanding. During training, a full-video student learns from a self-teacher conditioned on the corresponding clue interval by aligning their next-token distributions along student-generated trajectories. Clue-OPSD thus uses clue intervals as privileged supervision without relying on ground-truth answer labels, while requiring no clue annotations or additional modules at inference time. Extensive experiments across multiple long-video understanding benchmarks and Qwen3.5 model scales demonstrate consistent improvements over the corresponding backbone models and strong performance against supervised post-training baselines.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 25

CodeV: Code with Images for Faithful Visual Reasoning via Tool-Aware Policy Optimization

Agentic vision-language models are increasingly trained to "think with images" by calling image operations. However, we show that high final-answer accuracy often hides unfaithful visual reasoning: models may invoke tools on irrelevant regions or ignore tool outputs entirely, yet still guess the correct answer. In this work, we first propose a faithfulness evaluation protocol that measures whether intermediate visual tool outputs (e.g., crops) actually contain the queried evidence. This reveals that recent visual agents achieve high final-answer accuracy but exhibit low rates of faithful tool-use on visual search benchmarks. We then introduce CodeV, a code-based visual agent trained with Tool-Aware Policy Optimization (TAPO). TAPO is a process-level RL framework that augments GRPO with dense rewards defined directly on visual tool inputs and outputs, rather than on chain-of-thought tokens, making supervision easier to verify and less susceptible to reward hacking. CodeV represents visual tools as executable Python code, and TAPO assigns step-wise rewards based solely on the question and tool output, encouraging both necessary and evidence-consistent tool use. In a two-stage SFT+RL pipeline, CodeV achieves competitive or superior accuracy while substantially increasing faithful tool-use rates on related visual search benchmarks. Beyond visual search, CodeV attains strong performance on a range of multimodal reasoning and math benchmarks, suggesting that explicitly supervising intermediate tool behavior is crucial for building trustworthy, agentic visual reasoning systems.

umich University of Michigan
·
Nov 24, 2025 2

Reinforcement Learning with Visually Attributable On-Policy Self-Distillation

Multimodal reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) provides reliable task-level supervision, yet offers limited guidance for localizing errors in visual reasoning. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) complements this supervision with dense token-level corrections from a privileged teacher equipped with an evidence-centered visual view. However, the resulting corrections may conflate visual evidence with non-visual shifts induced by linguistic priors, response style, or the privileged view itself. We formalize this phenomenon as privileged-correction contamination: a token-level correction is contaminated when its update direction cannot be consistently attributed to the privileged visual evidence. Directly distilling contaminated corrections may therefore reinforce erroneous token-level updates. To address this issue, we propose reinforcement learning with visually attributable on-policy self-distillation, an evidence-consistent paradigm that augments task-level RLVR supervision with privileged token-level corrections grounded in visual evidence. We instantiate this paradigm with Visual-Attribution Gating (VAG), which uses the verifier-derived advantage as the optimization anchor and validates each privileged correction against the contrast between evidence-present and evidence-degraded teacher views. By admitting only corrections directionally supported by this visual contrast, VAG preserves visually grounded guidance while suppressing inconsistent residuals. Experiments across six visual reasoning benchmarks show that VAG consistently outperforms GRPO and OPSD methods, establishing new state-of-the-art average performance.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 18

Mr.LHDR: A Benchmark for Multimodal Real-World Long-Horizon Deep Research Agents

Deep research agents are increasingly capable of web search, tool use, multimodal evidence analysis, and information synthesis. However, existing benchmarks mainly evaluate medium-horizon exploration and rarely test whether agents can sustain long, dependency-heavy research processes. We introduce Mr.LHDR (Multimodal real-world Long-Horizon Deep Research), a benchmark for evaluating real-world deep research over long, irreducible chains of interdependent evidence across eight categories. Each question is constructed from a hidden Node-Relation graph and requires an average of 12.1 necessary intermediate conclusions with a mean dependency depth of 10.4 before reaching a short, unique, and verifiable answer. Questions incorporate multimodal evidence, including images, maps, PDFs, logos, charts, tables, and video frames, with at least one non-text element that changes the reasoning state. Mr.LHDR evaluates both final answers and the correctness of intermediate conclusions under annotated dependencies. We evaluate general models, deep research systems, and agent frameworks using Overall Accuracy (OA), Strict Accuracy (SA), Checklist Score (CS), and Dependency-Aware Checklist Score (DACS). Results show that even the strongest system achieves only 43.1% OA and 34.3% SA, indicating that final-answer accuracy substantially overestimates complete research success. Removing images reduces DACS by 12.6 points, demonstrating the importance of multimodal evidence, while SA consistently declines as reasoning chains become longer. These findings reveal sustained, dependency-consistent evidence integration, rather than isolated fact retrieval, as a key bottleneck for current deep research agents.

  • 13 authors
·
Sep 9

Synthetic Pre-pretraining Survives Scale, but Not as a Grammatical Prior

Pre-pretraining (PPT) on synthetic non-natural language data improves token efficiency during language model pre-training (PT). Prior work attributes this gain to a grammatical prior, i.e., a structural inductive bias learned during PPT that transfers to natural language grammar. However, PPT has only been tested on models of at most 1B parameters and PT budgets below 2B tokens on predominantly web text. It is unknown whether PPT is effective at larger scales and under more realistic PT data mixtures that combine diverse sources (e.g., code and math). We therefore present a comprehensive study on PPT spanning five PPT tasks, four PT data mixtures, four parameter scales (500M to 7B), and PT budgets of up to 100B tokens. Our results demonstrate that the downstream performance and token efficiency gains of PPT persist at scale, e.g., saving at least 21B PT tokens at the 3B scale. However, in contrast to prior work, we find no consistent evidence that these gains stem from a grammatical prior. Downstream performance does not consistently align with grammatical acceptability across model sizes. Instead, we find that downstream gains arise from PPT tasks that improve long-range retrieval. Finally, PPT performance gains are robust to how PT data mixtures are composed and diminish only when web text is absent. Overall, PPT is a low-cost addition to PT, and future PPT task design should target long-range retrieval rather than natural language grammar.

verify-ppt Verify PPT
·
Sep 29 2

Understanding the Role of Human Intuition on Reliance in Human-AI Decision-Making with Explanations

AI explanations are often mentioned as a way to improve human-AI decision-making, but empirical studies have not found consistent evidence of explanations' effectiveness and, on the contrary, suggest that they can increase overreliance when the AI system is wrong. While many factors may affect reliance on AI support, one important factor is how decision-makers reconcile their own intuition -- beliefs or heuristics, based on prior knowledge, experience, or pattern recognition, used to make judgments -- with the information provided by the AI system to determine when to override AI predictions. We conduct a think-aloud, mixed-methods study with two explanation types (feature- and example-based) for two prediction tasks to explore how decision-makers' intuition affects their use of AI predictions and explanations, and ultimately their choice of when to rely on AI. Our results identify three types of intuition involved in reasoning about AI predictions and explanations: intuition about the task outcome, features, and AI limitations. Building on these, we summarize three observed pathways for decision-makers to apply their own intuition and override AI predictions. We use these pathways to explain why (1) the feature-based explanations we used did not improve participants' decision outcomes and increased their overreliance on AI, and (2) the example-based explanations we used improved decision-makers' performance over feature-based explanations and helped achieve complementary human-AI performance. Overall, our work identifies directions for further development of AI decision-support systems and explanation methods that help decision-makers effectively apply their intuition to achieve appropriate reliance on AI.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 17, 2023

SlideBank: A Persistent Hierarchical Evidence Bank for Consistent Whole-Slide Reasoning

Whole-slide images (WSIs) are challenging for vision-language reasoning because diagnostically relevant morphology is sparse, heterogeneous, and distributed across gigapixel-scale images and multiple spatial resolutions. Existing WSI models and pathology agents can aggregate slide features or actively acquire evidence, but the information retained after exploration is often difficult to access semantically while preserving its connection to the original visual evidence. We introduce SlideBank, a training-free framework that represents each WSI as a persistent, concept-indexed, and spatially grounded evidence bank. SlideBank performs question-independent coarse-to-fine exploration to identify informative regions and multi-scale views, converts them into explicit morphological observations, and grounds pathology signals to their supporting patches and WSI coordinates. At inference time, questions are routed to relevant signals and evidence scales, and the linked global, regional, and patch evidence is integrated through confidence-based cross-level consensus. Experiments on WSI-VQA and SlideBench-BCNB show that with Patho-R1, SlideBank reaches 52.77% on WSI-VQA and with Quilt-LLaVA, it reaches 50.92% average accuracy on SlideBench-BCNB, while structured signal-guided retrieval consistently outperforms random evidence sampling. Reusing the same bank across repeated queries further achieves over 99% rephrasing consistency and substantially reduces amortized inference cost through persistent evidence reuse.

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 30

Learning to Retrieve from Agent Trajectories

Information retrieval (IR) systems have traditionally been designed and trained for human users, with learning-to-rank methods relying heavily on large-scale human interaction logs such as clicks and dwell time. With the rapid emergence of large language model (LLM) powered search agents, however, retrieval is increasingly consumed by agents rather than human beings, and is embedded as a core component within multi-turn reasoning and action loops. In this setting, retrieval models trained under human-centric assumptions exhibit a fundamental mismatch with the way agents issue queries and consume results. In this work, we argue that retrieval models for agentic search should be trained directly from agent interaction data. We introduce learning to retrieve from agent trajectories as a new training paradigm, where supervision is derived from multi-step agent interactions. Through a systematic analysis of search agent trajectories, we identify key behavioral signals that reveal document utility, including browsing actions, unbrowsed rejections, and post-browse reasoning traces. Guided by these insights, we propose LRAT, a simple yet effective framework that mines high-quality retrieval supervision from agent trajectories and incorporates relevance intensity through weighted optimization. Extensive experiments on both in-domain and out-of-domain deep research benchmarks demonstrate that retrievers trained with LRAT consistently improve evidence recall, end-to-end task success, and execution efficiency across diverse agent architectures and scales. Our results highlight agent trajectories as a practical and scalable supervision source, pointing to a promising direction for retrieval in the era of agentic search.

AI Debate Aids Assessment of Controversial Claims

As AI grows more powerful, it will increasingly shape how we understand the world. But with this influence comes the risk of amplifying misinformation and deepening social divides-especially on consequential topics like public health where factual accuracy directly impacts well-being. Scalable Oversight aims to ensure AI truthfulness by enabling humans to supervise systems that may exceed human capabilities--yet humans themselves hold different beliefs and biases that impair their judgment. We study whether AI debate can guide biased judges toward the truth by having two AI systems debate opposing sides of controversial COVID-19 factuality claims where people hold strong prior beliefs. We conduct two studies: one with human judges holding either mainstream or skeptical beliefs evaluating factuality claims through AI-assisted debate or consultancy protocols, and a second examining the same problem with personalized AI judges designed to mimic these different human belief systems. In our human study, we find that debate-where two AI advisor systems present opposing evidence-based arguments-consistently improves judgment accuracy and confidence calibration, outperforming consultancy with a single-advisor system by 10% overall. The improvement is most significant for judges with mainstream beliefs (+15.2% accuracy), though debate also helps skeptical judges who initially misjudge claims move toward accurate views (+4.7% accuracy). In our AI judge study, we find that AI judges with human-like personas achieve even higher accuracy (78.5%) than human judges (70.1%) and default AI judges without personas (69.8%), suggesting their potential for supervising frontier AI models. These findings highlight AI debate as a promising path toward scalable, bias-resilient oversight--leveraging both diverse human and AI judgments to move closer to truth in contested domains.

  • 14 authors
·
Jun 2, 2025

Skill-RM: Unifying Heterogeneous Evaluation Criteria via Agent Skill

Reward models (RMs) provide critical feedback signals for LLM post-training, notably in reinforced fine-tuning (RFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) pipelines. However, current reward evaluation relies on heterogeneous criteria such as rule-based verifiers, ground-truth references, procedural checklists, and complex rubrics, where a unified mechanism to integrate all types of evidence remains unexplored. To this end, we propose Skill Reward Model (Skill-RM), a unified framework that reformulates reward modeling as the execution of a reusable Reward-Evaluation Skill. By treating reward computation as a structured agentic task, Skill-RM provides a consistent interface to orchestrate heterogeneous resources, dynamically selecting and aggregating evidence tailored to the specific requirements of each input. This approach enables the reward model to move beyond static evaluation, ensuring consistency and transparency across diverse tasks. Extensive experiments on reward benchmarks and downstream applications, including best-of-N selection and reinforcement learning, demonstrate that Skill-RM consistently outperforms traditional judge baselines. Our findings suggest that Skill-RM not only provides a unified solution for reward modeling but also achieves superior performance through the strategic and dynamic orchestration of evidence. The code is at https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/Skill-RM.

  • 13 authors
·
Jun 1 2

Evidence for Widespread Hydrogen Sequestration within the Moon's South Polar Cold Traps

The measured neutron flux from the Moons south polar region shows evidence of locally enhanced hydrogen concentrations, likely in the form of water ice, within most permanently shadowed regions (PSR), poleward of 77 deg S latitude. Results are consistent with the original findings of Watson et al, 1961, which found that the PSRs cryogenic surfaces create exclusive conditions for the sequestration of water ice, due to their extremely low sublimation rates. Widespread PSR hydrogenation is demonstrated in several studies by showing that the contrasting PSR area distribution is being instrumentally blurred. The PSRs expected hydrogen observations are correlated by their area fraction of the fixed 30 km diameter footprint area of the Collimated Sensor for Epithermal Neutrons (CSETN), which is part of the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The correlation indicates that the PSRs are similarly hydrogenated, with an expected concentration = 0.27 wt%, relative to that of the anhydrous reference terrain (lower bounds). Hydrogen concentrations are demonstrated to be correlated to maximum temperature distributions within the basins of Haworth, Shoemaker and Faustini PSRs. Cabeus-1 PSR shows an anomalously enhanced hydrogen concentration indicating a second process contributes to its hydrogen budget. Results are consistent with ongoing processes that introduce volatiles to the surface including outgassing, solar wind production with regolith silicates, and mixing from small scale meteor impacts and diurnal temperature variation. We validate the bandpass filter used to subtract CSETNs detection of uncollimated neutrons with profiles of several PSRs neutron suppression before and after processing. Keywords: Moon, Epithermal Neutron, Hydrogen, Water, Ice, Volatiles, LRO, LEND, Diviner, LOLA

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 7, 2023

PARTAB: Partition-Aware Reasoning with Structured Evidence for Scalable Table Understanding

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities in table reasoning, but their effectiveness degrades as tables grow in size and complexity due to irrelevant context and difficulty localizing the evidence required for reasoning. Existing approaches typically reason over either the full table or a single reduced view, which can still obscure important row-column relationships. We introducePARTAB (Partition-Aware Reasoning overTables), a framework that constructs a structured evidence interface between the LLM and the table. PARTAB represents query-relevant evidence as semantically coherent, row-linked table regions and performs hierarchical selection over column groups and row-level partitions before composing the selected evidence for answer generation. We evaluate PARTAB on multiple table reasoning benchmarks, covering question answering, fact verification, and numerical reasoning. PARTAB consistently improves over full-table prompting and several recent table reasoning methods, achieving strong performance on WikiTableQuestions and TabFact while remaining competitive on numerical reasoning. Additional analyses show that semantic partitioning and targeted evidence selection improve evidence localization, substantially reduce the reasoning context, and provide larger benefits on complex tables. These results demonstrate the value of structured, partition aware evidence construction for scalable table reasoning.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 24

Chaining the Evidence: Robust Reinforcement Learning for Deep Search Agents with Citation-Aware Rubric Rewards

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a critical technique for enhancing LLM-based deep search agents. However, existing approaches primarily rely on binary outcome rewards, which fail to capture the comprehensiveness and factuality of agents' reasoning process, and often lead to undesirable behaviors such as shortcut exploitation and hallucinations. To address these limitations, we propose Citation-aware Rubric Rewards (CaRR), a fine-grained reward framework for deep search agents that emphasizes reasoning comprehensiveness, factual grounding, and evidence connectivity. CaRR decomposes complex questions into verifiable single-hop rubrics and requires agents to satisfy these rubrics by explicitly identifying hidden entities, supporting them with correct citations, and constructing complete evidence chains that link to the predicted answer. We further introduce Citation-aware Group Relative Policy Optimization (C-GRPO), which combines CaRR and outcome rewards for training robust deep search agents. Experiments show that C-GRPO consistently outperforms standard outcome-based RL baselines across multiple deep search benchmarks. Our analysis also validates that C-GRPO effectively discourages shortcut exploitation, promotes comprehensive, evidence-grounded reasoning, and exhibits strong generalization to open-ended deep research tasks. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/THUDM/CaRR.

zai-org Z.ai
·
Jan 9 3

Open-o3 Video: Grounded Video Reasoning with Explicit Spatio-Temporal Evidence

Most video reasoning models only generate textual reasoning traces without indicating when and where key evidence appears. Recent models such as OpenAI-o3 have sparked wide interest in evidence-centered reasoning for images, yet extending this ability to videos is more challenging, as it requires joint temporal tracking and spatial localization across dynamic scenes. We introduce Open-o3 Video, a non-agent framework that integrates explicit spatio-temporal evidence into video reasoning, and carefully collect training data and design training strategies to address the aforementioned challenges. The model highlights key timestamps, objects, and bounding boxes alongside its answers, allowing reasoning to be grounded in concrete visual observations. To enable this functionality, we first curate and build two high-quality datasets, STGR-CoT-30k for SFT and STGR-RL-36k for RL, with carefully constructed temporal and spatial annotations, since most existing datasets offer either temporal spans for videos or spatial boxes on images, lacking unified spatio-temporal supervision and reasoning traces. Then, we adopt a cold-start reinforcement learning strategy with multiple specially designed rewards that jointly encourage answer accuracy, temporal alignment, and spatial precision. On V-STAR benchmark, Open-o3 Video achieves state-of-the-art performance, raising mAM by 14.4% and mLGM by 24.2% on the Qwen2.5-VL baseline. Consistent improvements are also observed on a broad range of video understanding benchmarks, including VideoMME, WorldSense, VideoMMMU, and TVGBench. Beyond accuracy, the reasoning traces produced by Open-o3 Video also provide valuable signals for test-time scaling, enabling confidence-aware verification and improving answer reliability.

ByteDance ByteDance
·
Oct 23, 2025 3

Beyond the Needle's Illusion: Decoupled Evaluation of Evidence Access and Use under Semantic Interference at 326M-Token Scale

Long-context LLM agents must access the right evidence from large environments and use it faithfully. However, the popular Needle-in-a-Haystack (NIAH) evaluation mostly measures benign span localization. The needle is near-unique, and the haystack is largely irrelevant. We introduce EverMemBench-S (EMB-S), an adversarial NIAH-style benchmark built on a 326M-token MemoryBank. While the full MemoryBank spans 326M tokens for retrieval-based (RAG) evaluation, we evaluate native long-context models only at scales that fit within each model's context window (up to 1M tokens in this work) to ensure a fair comparison. EMB-S pairs queries with collision-tested near-miss hard negatives and gold evidence sets spanning one or more documents, validated via human screening and LLM verification. We also propose a decoupled diagnostic protocol that reports evidence access (document-ID localization) separately from end-to-end QA quality under full-context prompting. This enables consistent diagnosis for both native long-context prompting and retrieval pipelines. Across a reference-corpus ladder from domain-isolated 64K contexts to a globally shared 326M-token environment, we observe a clear reality gap. Systems that saturate benign NIAH degrade sharply in evidence access under semantic interference. These results indicate that semantic discrimination, not context length alone, is the dominant bottleneck for long-context memory at scale.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 28

Memento: Reconstruct to Remember for Consistent Long Video Generation

Long-form video generation requires recurring subjects to remain consistent across various shots, viewpoints, motions, and scene transitions. Existing temporal decomposition methods improve scalability by generating videos shot by shot. However, they mainly focus on optimizing plausible next-shot continuations without verifying whether the historical memory preserves identity-critical subject evidence. Consequently, as generation proceeds, recurring subjects may be diluted, overwritten, or forgotten. In this paper, we propose Memento, a subject-reconstruction-guided framework that treats subject preservation as an explicit identity grounding problem, based on the premise that a memory bank faithfully preserving a subject should support reconstructing that subject from memory alone. Specifically, Memento jointly trains autoregressive next-shot generation with memory-based subject reconstruction, recovering target appearances using historical memory and global story captions. To disentangle long-range subject evidence from short-range cues, Memento introduces a dual-query memory mechanism, where one query retrieves identity-relevant memory and the other selects short-context keyframes for coherent continuation. Additionally, a subject-aware cinematic data pipeline provides precise reconstruction supervision via consistent, pronoun-free subject descriptions. Experiments demonstrate that Memento achieves state-of-the-art performance in long-term subject consistency, cross-shot coherence, and visual quality.

baidu BAIDU
·
Jun 11 4

GUI-HARVEST: Self-Improving GUI Agents through Evidence-Driven Harness Evolution

The executable harness surrounding a GUI model determines how observations are assembled, actions are executed, and verification, recovery, and termination are controlled. Compared with harness optimization for non-GUI agents, automatically optimizing this harness poses three coupled challenges: reconciling model intent with observed visual effects, diagnosing failures under variable execution outcomes, and identifying recurrent failure patterns across tasks and translating them into reusable runtime changes. We introduce GUI-HARVEST, an automatic harness optimizer that enables self-improving GUI agents with frozen backbone models. First, to ground diagnosis in observed action effects, it aligns model outputs and executed actions with before-and-after screenshots, tying findings to specific interface transitions. Second, to account for execution variability, it treats repeated runs of the same task as a joint evidence unit, using within-task comparisons to locate outcome-relevant behavioral differences. Third, it consolidates verified findings across tasks into recurring failure patterns, maps them to bounded source-code edits with predictions recorded before evaluation, and checks the predicted behavioral effects alongside task performance through repeated execution. Experiments on OSWorld-Verified show consistent held-out gains across six general-purpose open, GUI-specialized open, and proprietary backbone models; Qwen3-VL-32B-Instruct gains 12.33 points on the full suite. Frozen-harness transfer improves GPT-5 by 13.87 percentage points on WindowsAgentArena at 50 steps without further optimization. With the same backbone and initial harness, GUI-HARVEST outperforms Self-Harness and Meta-Harness, suggesting that GUI-specific diagnosis and validation help harness improvements generalize to unseen tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/GaryYang12345/GUI-HARVEST.

Learning Multimodal Embeddings with Evidence-Aligned Readout

Multimodal large language models can expose task-relevant evidence through generation, but producing useful evidence does not by itself determine how it enters a retrieval embedding. We study whether the semantic organization of that evidence can also specify where representations are read. To address this question, we introduce EviAlign, which couples Semantic Evidence Generation with Boundary Readout in a shared multimodal large language model. It organizes evidence into five semantic units, reads the contextualized state at each unit boundary, and aggregates these states into a single normalized embedding. Generation and contrastive retrieval objectives jointly train this shared structure. With the same trailing readout, semantic evidence and free-form CoT yield nearly identical retrieval performance, suggesting that evidence organization alone does not explain the full gain. A controlled 2times3 study compares consistent and permuted evidence organization across three readout strategies, using training targets with matched evidence spans. With five readout states and the same mean pooling, the advantage of consistent semantic organization grows from 0.65 points at length-based training positions to 2.39 at evidence boundaries, yielding a 1.74-point co-design interaction. Across 12 MMEB retrieval tasks, EviAlign achieves 76.9 average Recall@1 with 500K training pairs while retaining single-vector indexing and scoring.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 26 2

Adaptive Evidence Weighting for Audio-Spatiotemporal Fusion

Many machine learning systems have access to multiple sources of evidence for the same prediction target, yet these sources often differ in reliability and informativeness across inputs. In bioacoustic classification, species identity may be inferred both from the acoustic signal and from spatiotemporal context such as location and season; while Bayesian inference motivates multiplicative evidence combination, in practice we typically only have access to discriminative predictors rather than calibrated generative models. We introduce Fusion under INdependent Conditional Hypotheses (FINCH), an adaptive log-linear evidence fusion framework that integrates a pre-trained audio classifier with a structured spatiotemporal predictor. FINCH learns a per-sample gating function that estimates the reliability of contextual information from uncertainty and informativeness statistics. The resulting fusion family contains the audio-only classifier as a special case and explicitly bounds the influence of contextual evidence, yielding a risk-contained hypothesis class with an interpretable audio-only fallback. Across benchmarks, FINCH consistently outperforms fixed-weight fusion and audio-only baselines, improving robustness and error trade-offs even when contextual information is weak in isolation. We achieve state-of-the-art performance on CBI and competitive or improved performance on several subsets of BirdSet using a lightweight, interpretable, evidence-based approach. Code is available: \href{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/birdnoise-85CD/README.md{anonymous-repository}}

Evidence Over Plans: Online Trajectory Verification for Skill Distillation

Agent skills can remarkably improve task success rates by using human-written procedural documents, but their quality is difficult to assess without environment-grounded verification. Existing skill generation methods heavily rely on preference logs rather than direct environment interaction, often yielding negligible or even degraded gains. We identify that it is a fundamental timing bottleneck: robust skills should be posterior-based, distilled from empirical environment interaction rather than prior plans. In this study, we introduce the Posterior Distillation Index (PDI), a trajectory-level metric that quantifies how well a distilled skill is grounded in the task-environment evidence. To operationalize PDI, we present SPARK (Structured Pipelines for Autonomous Runnable tasKs and sKill generation) for preserving task execution evidence towards full trajectory-level analysis. SPARK generates environment-verified trajectories used to compute PDI, and it applies PDI as an online diagnostic and intervention signal to ensure posterior skill formation. Across 86 runnable tasks, SPARK-generated skills consistently surpass no-skill baselines and outperform human-written skills on student models (inference cost up to 1,000x cheaper than teacher models). These findings show that PDI-guided distillation produces efficient and transferable skills grounded in the task-environment interaction. We release our code at https://github.com/EtaYang10th/spark-skills .

  • 10 authors
·
May 8

ResearchStudio-Idea: An Evidence-Grounded Research-Ideation Skill Suite from ML Conference Outcomes

Large language models have made research ideation increasingly accessible, yet effective idea development requires more than generating candidate directions. Researchers must ground a problem in current literature, identify meaningful bottlenecks, differentiate from existing solutions, and evaluate risks before committing to implementation. We present ResearchStudio-Idea as a reusable skill suite for this first mile of research ideation. The suite includes Paper-Search, a standalone multi-source literature search skill; Scoop-Check, a standalone prior-art collision checker for novelty claims; and IdeaSpark, the end-to-end skill that composes evidence grounding, pattern-guided generation, collision retrieval, audit, and idea-card rendering into one workflow. IdeaSpark is constructed from a corpus of 1,947 machine learning conference papers collected from ICLR, ICML, and NeurIPS between 2021 and 2025, including Oral papers, a separately tracked high-citation subset, and rejected submissions. Analysis of these outcomes reveals 31 recurring ideation sub-patterns, consolidated into 15 reusable ideation patterns. Each pattern is operationalized as a structured card containing research contexts, bottleneck types, differentiation strategies, supporting precedents, and common failure modes. Given a research problem and an evidence bundle, IdeaSpark evaluates evidence readiness, reconstructs the surrounding research context, identifies unresolved bottlenecks, selects relevant patterns, instantiates one candidate direction, retrieves potentially conflicting prior work, and performs outcome-informed auditing. This workflow transforms reusable ideation patterns into traceable research proposals. Blind automated-judge evaluations show that IdeaSpark consistently produces stronger research proposals than no-skill and generic-skill baselines while maintaining competitive novelty.

microsoft Microsoft
·
Jul 4 3

Causal evidence for the primordiality of colours in trans-Neptunian objects

The origins of the colours of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) represent a crucial unresolved question, central to understanding the history of our Solar System. Recent observational surveys revealed correlations between the eccentricity and inclination of TNOs, and their colours. This rekindled the long-standing debate on whether these colours reflect the conditions of TNO formation or their subsequent evolution. We address this question using a model-agnostic, data-driven approach that unanimously converges to a common causal graph from the analysis of two different datasets, each from two different conditional independence test methods. For evaluation, we demonstrate how our model is consistent with the currently-accepted paradigms of TNOs' dynamical histories, without involving any orbital modelling or physics-based assumptions. Our causal model (with no knowledge of the existence of Neptune) predicts the need for an unknown confounding variable, consistent with Neptune's effects. The model predicts that the colour of TNOs is the root cause of their inclination distribution, rather than the other way around. This strongly suggests that the colours of TNOs reflect an underlying dynamical property, most likely their formation location. Our model excludes formation scenarios that invoke substantial colour modification by subsequent evolution. We conclude that the colours of TNOs are predominantly primordial.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 13, 2025

UGPL: Uncertainty-Guided Progressive Learning for Evidence-Based Classification in Computed Tomography

Accurate classification of computed tomography (CT) images is essential for diagnosis and treatment planning, but existing methods often struggle with the subtle and spatially diverse nature of pathological features. Current approaches typically process images uniformly, limiting their ability to detect localized abnormalities that require focused analysis. We introduce UGPL, an uncertainty-guided progressive learning framework that performs a global-to-local analysis by first identifying regions of diagnostic ambiguity and then conducting detailed examination of these critical areas. Our approach employs evidential deep learning to quantify predictive uncertainty, guiding the extraction of informative patches through a non-maximum suppression mechanism that maintains spatial diversity. This progressive refinement strategy, combined with an adaptive fusion mechanism, enables UGPL to integrate both contextual information and fine-grained details. Experiments across three CT datasets demonstrate that UGPL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving improvements of 3.29%, 2.46%, and 8.08% in accuracy for kidney abnormality, lung cancer, and COVID-19 detection, respectively. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty-guided component provides substantial benefits, with performance dramatically increasing when the full progressive learning pipeline is implemented. Our code is available at: https://github.com/shravan-18/UGPL

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 18, 2025 1

SeViCES: Unifying Semantic-Visual Evidence Consensus for Long Video Understanding

Long video understanding remains challenging due to its complex, diverse, and temporally scattered content. Although video large language models (Video-LLMs) can process videos lasting tens of minutes, applying them to truly long sequences is computationally prohibitive and often leads to unfocused or inconsistent reasoning. A promising solution is to select only the most informative frames, yet existing approaches typically ignore temporal dependencies or rely on unimodal evidence, limiting their ability to provide complete and query-relevant context. We propose a Semantic-Visual Consensus Evidence Selection (SeViCES) framework for effective and reliable long video understanding. SeViCES is training-free and model-agnostic, and introduces two key components. The Semantic-Visual Consensus Frame Selection (SVCFS) module selects frames through (1) a temporal-aware semantic branch that leverages LLM reasoning over captions, and (2) a cluster-guided visual branch that aligns embeddings with semantic scores via mutual information. The Answer Consensus Refinement (ACR) module further resolves inconsistencies between semantic- and visual-based predictions by fusing evidence and constraining the answer space. Extensive experiments on long video understanding benchmarks show that SeViCES consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both accuracy and robustness, demonstrating the importance of consensus-driven evidence selection for Video-LLMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 23, 2025

The Impact of Medication Non-adherence on Adverse Outcomes: Evidence from Schizophrenia Patients via Survival Analysis

This study quantifies the association between non-adherence to antipsychotic medications and adverse outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia. We frame the problem using survival analysis, focusing on the time to the earliest of several adverse events (early death, involuntary hospitalization, jail booking). We extend standard causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching) to utilize various survival models to estimate individual and average treatment effects, where treatment corresponds to medication non-adherence. Analyses are repeated using different amounts of longitudinal information (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Using data from Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania, we find strong evidence that non-adherence advances adverse outcomes by approximately 1 to 4 months. Ablation studies confirm that county-provided risk scores adjust for key confounders, as their removal amplifies the estimated effects. Subgroup analyses by medication formulation (injectable vs. oral) and medication type consistently show that non-adherence is associated with earlier adverse events. These findings highlight the clinical importance of adherence in delaying psychiatric crises and show that integrating survival analysis with causal inference tools can yield policy-relevant insights. We caution that although we apply causal inference, we only make associative claims and discuss assumptions needed for causal interpretation.

When Iterative RAG Beats Ideal Evidence: A Diagnostic Study in Scientific Multi-hop Question Answering

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) extends large language models (LLMs) beyond parametric knowledge, yet it is unclear when iterative retrieval-reasoning loops meaningfully outperform static RAG, particularly in scientific domains with multi-hop reasoning, sparse domain knowledge, and heterogeneous evidence. We provide the first controlled, mechanism-level diagnostic study of whether synchronized iterative retrieval and reasoning can surpass an idealized static upper bound (Gold Context) RAG. We benchmark eleven state-of-the-art LLMs under three regimes: (i) No Context, measuring reliance on parametric memory; (ii) Gold Context, where all oracle evidence is supplied at once; and (iii) Iterative RAG, a training-free controller that alternates retrieval, hypothesis refinement, and evidence-aware stopping. Using the chemistry-focused ChemKGMultiHopQA dataset, we isolate questions requiring genuine retrieval and analyze behavior with diagnostics spanning retrieval coverage gaps, anchor-carry drop, query quality, composition fidelity, and control calibration. Across models, Iterative RAG consistently outperforms Gold Context, with gains up to 25.6 percentage points, especially for non-reasoning fine-tuned models. Staged retrieval reduces late-hop failures, mitigates context overload, and enables dynamic correction of early hypothesis drift, but remaining failure modes include incomplete hop coverage, distractor latch trajectories, early stopping miscalibration, and high composition failure rates even with perfect retrieval. Overall, staged retrieval is often more influential than the mere presence of ideal evidence; we provide practical guidance for deploying and diagnosing RAG systems in specialized scientific settings and a foundation for more reliable, controllable iterative retrieval-reasoning frameworks.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 27

CoEM: Empowering Long-Context Reasoning with Commit-on-Evidence Memory

Long-context reasoning is essential for complex and long-horizon tasks, yet the performance of large language models (LLMs) degrades as context length increases. Recent approaches address this by processing input chunk by chunk while maintaining a bounded textual memory in model context. However, premature information compression can discard critical details essential for subsequent reasoning. In this paper, we introduce Commit-on-Evidence Memory (CoEM), which learns when to convert source evidence into compact memory facts. Specifically, under a fixed context-memory budget, CoEM preserves potentially useful source excerpts verbatim in a pending set, allowing subsequent context to clarify their relevance before irreversible compression. As new context arrives, a learned policy revisits each pending excerpt and decides whether to promote it to the committed memory, retain it for further consideration, or discard it. A frozen verifier ensures proposed facts are accepted only if supported by retained excerpts and current context. To further guide effective memory management, we train this policy using reinforcement learning by combining fine-grained, step-level evidence rewards with final answer rewards. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CoEM consistently improves long-context reasoning. When evaluated on 6,400 documents long-context input, CoEM outperforms the strongest memory baseline by 10.4-11.4 F1 points on Qwen3.5-9B. Code repository: https://github.com/benmagnifico/CoEM.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 29

Language modulates vision: Evidence from neural networks and human brain-lesion models

Comparing information structures in between deep neural networks (DNNs) and the human brain has become a key method for exploring their similarities and differences. Recent research has shown better alignment of vision-language DNN models, such as CLIP, with the activity of the human ventral occipitotemporal cortex (VOTC) than earlier vision models, supporting the idea that language modulates human visual perception. However, interpreting the results from such comparisons is inherently limited due to the "black box" nature of DNNs. To address this, we combined model-brain fitness analyses with human brain lesion data to examine how disrupting the communication pathway between the visual and language systems causally affects the ability of vision-language DNNs to explain the activity of the VOTC. Across four diverse datasets, CLIP consistently captured unique variance in VOTC neural representations, relative to both label-supervised (ResNet) and unsupervised (MoCo) models. This advantage tended to be left-lateralized at the group level, aligning with the human language network. Analyses of 33 stroke patients revealed that reduced white matter integrity between the VOTC and the language region in the left angular gyrus was correlated with decreased CLIP-brain correspondence and increased MoCo-brain correspondence, indicating a dynamic influence of language processing on the activity of the VOTC. These findings support the integration of language modulation in neurocognitive models of human vision, reinforcing concepts from vision-language DNN models. The sensitivity of model-brain similarity to specific brain lesions demonstrates that leveraging manipulation of the human brain is a promising framework for evaluating and developing brain-like computer models.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 16, 2025

Evidence Sufficiency Under Delayed Ground Truth: Proxy Monitoring for Risk Decision Systems

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 16

Evidence-Driven Retrieval Augmented Response Generation for Online Misinformation

The proliferation of online misinformation has posed significant threats to public interest. While numerous online users actively participate in the combat against misinformation, many of such responses can be characterized by the lack of politeness and supporting facts. As a solution, text generation approaches are proposed to automatically produce counter-misinformation responses. Nevertheless, existing methods are often trained end-to-end without leveraging external knowledge, resulting in subpar text quality and excessively repetitive responses. In this paper, we propose retrieval augmented response generation for online misinformation (RARG), which collects supporting evidence from scientific sources and generates counter-misinformation responses based on the evidences. In particular, our RARG consists of two stages: (1) evidence collection, where we design a retrieval pipeline to retrieve and rerank evidence documents using a database comprising over 1M academic articles; (2) response generation, in which we align large language models (LLMs) to generate evidence-based responses via reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). We propose a reward function to maximize the utilization of the retrieved evidence while maintaining the quality of the generated text, which yields polite and factual responses that clearly refutes misinformation. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we study the case of COVID-19 and perform extensive experiments with both in- and cross-domain datasets, where RARG consistently outperforms baselines by generating high-quality counter-misinformation responses.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 22, 2024

Med-OPD: Improving Medical Vision-Language Models via Evidence-Aware On-Policy Distillation

Medical Vision-Language Models (Med-VLMs) require reliable reasoning from fine-grained visual evidence, yet existing models can produce plausible clinical answers by relying on language priors or medical templates rather than truly attending to diagnosis-critical regions. On-Policy Distillation (OPD) offers dense token-level supervision on student-generated trajectories and provides a privacy-compatible means of capability transfer without requiring the redistribution of raw patient data. However, standard OPD uniformly distills all tokens, causing sparse evidence-dependent tokens to be diluted by abundant clinical narrative tokens. Inspired by the success of OPD in the large language model community, we propose Med-OPD, to our knowledge the first unified post-training framework that integrates on-policy distillation with medical evidence-aware supervision for Med-VLMs. We introduce Medical Evidence Advantage (MEA), a teacher-grounded counterfactual signal that uses an answer-aware hint to focus teacher scoring on evidence supporting the target diagnosis, and measures each token's dependence on medical visual evidence by comparing teacher likelihoods under the original and evidence-degraded imaging modalities. Based on MEA, Med-OPD redistributes the distillation signal at both the token and trajectory levels, emphasizing diagnosis-critical tokens and evidence-reliant rollouts. Experiments on OmniMedVQA subsets show that Med-OPD consistently outperforms SFT and standard OPD across CT, MRI, Disease Diagnosis, and Lesion Grading. These results demonstrate that evidence-aware distillation can better strengthen medical VLMs' reliance on key visual evidence and improve reliable multimodal medical reasoning. The source code and data is publicly available at: https://github.com/yunhang8658/MedOPD.git

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 13

Label-Free Detection of Governance Evidence Degradation in Risk Decision Systems

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 19

MeddeX: A Retrieval-Augmented LLaMA-3 System with Gemini Vision for Evidence-Backed Medical Report Analysis

Modern healthcare generates increasingly complex medical reports that challenge clinical professionals in terms of time and interpretive burden. Manual review processes are slow, error-prone, and difficult to scale. This paper presents MeddeX, a Medical Report Analyzer that combines a QLoRA fine-tuned LLaMA-3 (8B) model with Retrieval-Augmented Gen eration (RAG) and a multimodal Gemini Vision layer to deliver accurate, concise, and evidence-backed summaries of medical documents. The system handles text-native PDFs, scanned image based PDFs, and direct radiological images through an intelligent hybrid extraction pipeline that includes a novel garbage-text detection mechanism for corrupted and UTF-16-encoded doc uments. Beyond single-report Q&A, MeddeX introduces report scoped retrieval for precise contextual grounding, an automated longitudinal report comparison engine, and a self-healing backfill pipeline that lazily processes legacy documents on demand. A FastAPI backend, Supabase vector store, and Next.js fron tend complete the end-to-end architecture. Evaluation against the base LLaMA3-Med42-8B model demonstrates consistent improvements across ROUGE-1 (+9.2%), ROUGE-2 (+10.0%), ROUGE-L (+11.8%), BLEU (+71.4%), and BERTScore (+0.8%), validating the benefit of domain-specific fine-tuning. MeddeX represents a practical and robust step toward AI-assisted clinical decision support.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 29

V-Zero: Answer-Label-Free On-Policy Distillation with Contrastive Evidence Gating for Fine-Grained Visual Reasoning

Fine-grained visual reasoning requires multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to identify task-relevant visual evidence and ground their reasoning in local image regions. Existing agentic methods typically rely on reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards or supervised fine-tuning on large-scale annotated reasoning traces, leading to costly exploration, hand-designed verification rules, or heavy dependence on textual supervision. A natural way to avoid such external answer labels is to learn from trajectories sampled by the student itself, which points to On-Policy Distillation (OPD). To understand what OPD can and cannot provide for visual reasoning, we revisit it as negative-free stop-gradient alignment. This perspective shows that, although OPD provides effective token-level correction, its ceiling is constrained by the absence of trajectory-level discrimination. Motivated by these observations, we propose V-Zero, an answer-label-free framework for visual reasoning with contrastive evidence gating. V-Zero uses no annotated textual answer labels; instead, during training it pairs a question-relevant regional crop with a negative visual view to evaluate student-sampled trajectories and gate dense token-level distillation. Experiments on multiple visual reasoning benchmarks show that V-Zero consistently improves fine-grained visual reasoning while preserving strong generalization. Notably, V-Zero is more than 5times faster than previous supervised fine-tuning methods and more than 10times faster than reinforcement learning baselines. Code and dataset will be released at https://github.com/eVI-group-SCU/V-Zero

Alignment between Brains and AI: Evidence for Convergent Evolution across Modalities, Scales and Training Trajectories

Artificial and biological systems may evolve similar computational solutions despite fundamental differences in architecture and learning mechanisms -- a form of convergent evolution. We demonstrate this phenomenon through large-scale analysis of alignment between human brain activity and internal representations of over 600 AI models spanning language and vision domains, from 1.33M to 72B parameters. Analyzing 60 million alignment measurements reveals that higher-performing models spontaneously develop stronger brain alignment without explicit neural constraints, with language models showing markedly stronger correlation (r=0.89, p<7.5e-13) than vision models (r=0.53, p<2.0e-44). Crucially, longitudinal analysis demonstrates that brain alignment consistently precedes performance improvements during training, suggesting that developing brain-like representations may be a necessary stepping stone toward higher capabilities. We find systematic patterns: language models exhibit strongest alignment with limbic and integrative regions, while vision models show progressive alignment with visual cortices; deeper processing layers converge across modalities; and as representational scale increases, alignment systematically shifts from primary sensory to higher-order associative regions. These findings provide compelling evidence that optimization for task performance naturally drives AI systems toward brain-like computational strategies, offering both fundamental insights into principles of intelligent information processing and practical guidance for developing more capable AI systems.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 17, 2025

Thinking Once Is Enough: Intermediate-Layer Evidence Routing for High-Resolution VQA

High-resolution visual question answering (HR-VQA) is often treated as a problem of insufficient evidence acquisition, where failing multimodal large language models must inspect images again through cropping, re-encoding, or multi-round search. We show that this view is incomplete: in many cases, fine-grained evidence has already survived visual encoding and become identifiable and influential within an intermediate-layer routing window, but is later diluted before answer generation. We propose Thinking-Once, a training-free, single-visual-pass evidence-routing method that reconstructs question-conditioned attention at this window, preserves core entity tokens and compact background context, and routes this evidence to later layers without extra visual encoding. Across five base models, Thinking-Once consistently improves or matches the corresponding base setting, increasing the average scores on V^*Bench, HRBench-4K, and HRBench-8K by +3.1, +3.0, and +2.7 points while reducing the average peak memory by about 4,GB. On Qwen2.5-VL-7B, it improves the three benchmarks by +9.9, +4.6, and +5.5 points, raising the cross-benchmark mean from 72.5 to 79.1. With the ZwZ-8B base model, Thinking-Once reaches a mean score of 82.7. Against 11 open-source HR-VQA baselines, it obtains the best or tied-best score on all three benchmark averages and the best overall mean; for example, compared with DeepScan, it reduces V^*Bench inference time by 97.2\% while improving the cross-benchmark mean from 77.8 to 79.1. These results show that HR-VQA can be improved by routing already encoded evidence rather than repeatedly acquiring new visual inputs. Code is available in the appendix.

  • 12 authors
·
Jul 29

Rethinking Latent Visual Reasoning: Grounding Latent Reasoning in Visual Evidence

Latent visual reasoning (LVR) enables multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to perform intermediate computation in continuous latent tokens rather than expressing every reasoning step in words. However, unlike textual CoT, latent reasoning is not directly observable, making it difficult to supervise what latent tokens learn. In this work, we first conduct a thorough analysis of latent-token behavior and identify a latent evidence-credit gap: latent tokens respond only weakly to image perturbations that alter the correct answer. We hypothesize that this issue stems from the lack of explicit supervision during GRPO training. These findings suggest that a final-answer reward provides too little guidance on what visual evidence to preserve or how credit should be assigned across latent tokens. To bridge this gap, we propose ReaLVR, which brings visual-evidence supervision to the model's own free-running latent trajectories. ReaLVR contrasts correct and model-generated wrong answers to determine where stronger supervision is needed, and relevant and mismatched visual evidence to specify what to preserve. Across three model families, ReaLVR consistently outperforms evaluated LVR baselines, achieving the highest five-task average of 63.7% on Qwen2.5-VL-7B. Crucially, we are the first to scale visual reasoning in latent space, showing that our framework continues to deliver robust improvements at frontier model scales up to 235B. Further analyses show more question-sensitive latent-token positions, stronger alignment with relevant visual regions, and greater fixed-context dependence on the most attended latent tokens.

amazon Amazon
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Sep 27 2

EVIDENT: Routing MLLM Adaptation through Entity-Grounded Visual Evidence for Cross-Domain Video Temporal Grounding

Fine-tuning MLLMs for Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) often improves in-domain performance but degrades sharply under domain shift. In this work, we find that this failure is primarily driven not just by unseen query concepts, but by visual domain shift, which prevents the model from coupling its learned temporal localization knowledge with its inherent entity-attention capability. To address this, we introduce EVIDENT, a parameter-efficient adaptation framework that anchors temporal grounding in the inherent entity-attention of pre-trained MLLMs by routing VTG adaptation through explicit visual entity evidence. EVIDENT consists of three components: (i) an Entity Bottleneck Adapter that transforms dense visual tokens into compact entity-level slots, (ii) an Entity-Binding Distillation loss that instills objectness priors into the semantically unstructured MLLM visual space, guiding each slot to bind to a coherent entity, and (iii) an Entity-to-eVidence gating mechanism that leverages the captured entities as evidence, steering the model to localize moments containing query-relevant entities. Together, these components enable VTG fine-tuning to rely on entity-grounded evidence rather than brittle dataset shortcuts. Experiments on cross-domain VTG benchmarks show that EVIDENT consistently improves out-of-domain robustness while preserving competitive in-domain performance with modest parameter overhead. These results suggest that entity-level grounding is an effective inductive bias for generalizable temporal localization.

  • 5 authors
·
May 24

Dynamic Theory of Mind as a Temporal Memory Problem: Evidence from Large Language Models

Theory of Mind (ToM) is central to social cognition and human-AI interaction, and Large Language Models (LLMs) have been used to help understand and represent ToM. However, most evaluations treat ToM as a static judgment at a single moment, primarily relying on tests of false beliefs. This overlooks a key dynamic dimension of ToM: the ability to represent, update, and retrieve others' beliefs over time. We investigate dynamic ToM as a temporally extended representational memory problem, asking whether LLMs can track belief trajectories across interactions rather than only inferring current beliefs. We introduce DToM-Track, an evaluation framework to investigate temporal belief reasoning in controlled multiturn conversations, testing the recall of beliefs held prior to an update, the inference of current beliefs, and the detection of belief change. Using LLMs as computational probes, we find a consistent asymmetry: models reliably infer an agent's current belief but struggle to maintain and retrieve prior belief states once updates occur. This pattern persists across LLM model families and scales, and is consistent with recency bias and interference effects well documented in cognitive science. These results suggest that tracking belief trajectories over time poses a distinct challenge beyond classical false-belief reasoning. By framing ToM as a problem of temporal representation and retrieval, this work connects ToM to core cognitive mechanisms of memory and interference and exposes the implications for LLM models of social reasoning in extended human-AI interactions.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 14

Open-o3-Video-v2: Seek, Ground, and Reason with Verifiable Spatio-Temporal Evidence

Reliable video reasoning requires models to produce correct answers and expose supporting visual evidence. Open-o3-Video enables verifiable reasoning by embedding timestamps and object-level bounding boxes into reasoning traces, but is restricted to frames from an initial sparse sampler. We introduce Open-o3-Video-v2, which formulates video reasoning as a unified agentic evidencegrounded process. The model identifies missing information, acquires additional observations, grounds the moments and objects supporting its reasoning, and writes this evidence into the trajectory before continuing or answering. To support this behavior, we construct STGR-v2-CoT135K, including 52K multi-turn agentic grounded reasoning trajectories, and STGR-v2-RL-13K for reinforcement learning. We further propose Clue-Seek GRPO (CS-GRPO), which tracks how tool calls change accumulated evidence, rewards clue coverage and step-wise gains, and penalizes excessive, repetitive, or uninformative retrieval. On V-STaR, Open-o3-Video-v2-4B achieves 40.4% mAM and 56.3% mLGM, outperforming its Qwen3-VL-4B backbone by 8.5% and 12.6%, respectively. It also delivers consistent gains across general video understanding, long-video reasoning, and temporal grounding benchmarks. These results show that active evidence acquisition and verifiable object-level grounding are complementary for reliable video reasoning. The code and models are released at https://msalab-pku.github.io/projects/Open-o3-Video-v2.

EviNote-RAG: Enhancing RAG Models via Answer-Supportive Evidence Notes

Large Language Models (LLMs) empowered with retrieval mechanisms have achieved strong progress in open-domain question answering (QA). Yet, the conventional retrieve--then--answer paradigm often suffers from two key limitations: (1) low signal-to-noise ratio in retrieved evidence, where useful information is buried under irrelevant content, and (2) error accumulation in multi-hop reasoning when incomplete or noisy passages are involved. To address these challenges, we present EviNote-RAG, an agentic RAG framework that introduces a structured retrieve--note--answer pipeline. Instead of directly reasoning over raw retrievals, the model is trained to compose Supportive-Evidence Notes (SENs), concise, human-like notes that preserve only answer-relevant information, highlight uncertainty, and explicitly state when no useful evidence exists. This distillation process is further reinforced by the Evidence Quality Reward (EQR), an entailment-based signal that evaluates whether SENs logically support the final answer. Together, SENs and EQR guide the model toward faithful and robust reasoning, while reducing the impact of noise. Experiments on in-domain and out-of-domain QA benchmarks show that EviNote-RAG consistently outperforms strong baselines in accuracy, generalization, and training stability. In particular, it achieves state-of-the-art results while enhancing robustness and efficiency, yielding relative F1 gains of 20\% on HotpotQA (+0.093), 40\% on Bamboogle (+0.151), and 91\% on 2Wiki (+0.256) via denser rewards and reduced verbosity.

  • 16 authors
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Aug 31, 2025 1

The Digital Divide in Generative AI: Evidence from Large Language Model Use in College Admissions Essays

Large language models (LLMs) have become popular writing tools among students and may expand access to high-quality feedback for students with less access to traditional writing support. At the same time, LLMs may standardize student voice or invite overreliance. This study examines how adoption of LLM-assisted writing varies across socioeconomic groups and how it relates to outcomes in a high-stakes context: U.S. college admissions. We analyze a de-identified longitudinal dataset of applications to a selective university from 2020 to 2024 (N = 81,663). Estimating LLM use using a distribution-based detector trained on synthetic and historical essays, we tracked how student writing changed as LLM use proliferated, how adoption differed by socioeconomic status (SES), and whether potential benefits translated equitably into admissions outcomes. Using fee-waiver status as a proxy for SES, we observe post-2023 convergence in surface-level linguistic features, with the largest changes in fee-waived and rejected applicants. Estimated LLM use rose sharply in 2024 across all groups, with disproportionately larger increases among lower SES applicants, consistent with an access hypothesis in which LLMs substitute for scarce writing support. However, increased estimated LLM use was more strongly associated with declines in predicted admission probability for lower SES applicants than for higher SES applicants, even after controlling for academic credentials and stylometric features. These findings raise concerns about equity and the validity of essay-based evaluation in an era of AI-assisted writing and provide the first large-scale longitudinal evidence linking LLM adoption, linguistic change, and evaluative outcomes in college admissions.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 18

CogniRoute: Learning to Route Social Evidence in Omni-Modal Models

Omni-modal models can ingest video, audio, and text, but unified access to multiple modalities does not guarantee that a model uses the right evidence. This gap is especially pronounced in social video question answering, where the answer may hinge on a gesture, vocal tone, temporal cue, or mismatch between what is said and what is visually expressed. We introduce CogniRoute, a schema-guided Mixture-of-Experts framework for social omni reasoning. CogniRoute uses a training-only cognitive schema that factorizes each example by cross-modal relation, reasoning demand, and temporal scope, and aligns global routing signatures with this structure during supervised fine-tuning. We further introduce route-aware reinforcement learning, which jointly optimizes token generation and expert allocation using rewards for answer correctness, modality-consistent reasoning, and cognitive temporal grounding. To support training and evaluation, we construct OmniSocialBench, a diagnostic social video QA resource with 118K structured training examples, grounded reasoning traces, schema labels, temporal evidence spans, and a manually verified evaluation split. CogniRoute achieves 59.38\% average accuracy on OmniSocialBench, improving over the strongest proprietary baseline by 15.33 percentage points and the strongest open-source omni baseline by 26.77 points, with the largest gains on questions requiring audio-visual coordination, conflict resolution, and temporally grounded social inference.

DocShield: Towards AI Document Safety via Evidence-Grounded Agentic Reasoning

The rapid progress of generative AI has enabled increasingly realistic text-centric image forgeries, posing major challenges to document safety. Existing forensic methods mainly rely on visual cues and lack evidence-based reasoning to reveal subtle text manipulations. Detection, localization, and explanation are often treated as isolated tasks, limiting reliability and interpretability. To tackle these challenges, we propose DocShield, the first unified framework formulating text-centric forgery analysis as a visual-logical co-reasoning problem. At its core, a novel Cross-Cues-aware Chain of Thought (CCT) mechanism enables implicit agentic reasoning, iteratively cross-validating visual anomalies with textual semantics to produce consistent, evidence-grounded forensic analysis. We further introduce a Weighted Multi-Task Reward for GRPO-based optimization, aligning reasoning structure, spatial evidence, and authenticity prediction. Complementing the framework, we construct RealText-V1, a multilingual dataset of document-like text images with pixel-level manipulation masks and expert-level textual explanations. Extensive experiments show DocShield significantly outperforms existing methods, improving macro-average F1 by 41.4% over specialized frameworks and 23.4% over GPT-4o on T-IC13, with consistent gains on the challenging T-SROIE benchmark. Our dataset, model, and code will be publicly released.

  • 11 authors
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Apr 2

Can AI Validate Science? Benchmarking LLMs for Accurate Scientific Claim $\rightarrow$ Evidence Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being used for complex research tasks such as literature review, idea generation, and scientific paper analysis, yet their ability to truly understand and process the intricate relationships within complex research papers, such as the logical links between claims and supporting evidence remains largely unexplored. In this study, we present CLAIM-BENCH, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating LLMs' capabilities in scientific claim-evidence extraction and validation, a task that reflects deeper comprehension of scientific argumentation. We systematically compare three approaches which are inspired by divide and conquer approaches, across six diverse LLMs, highlighting model-specific strengths and weaknesses in scientific comprehension. Through evaluation involving over 300 claim-evidence pairs across multiple research domains, we reveal significant limitations in LLMs' ability to process complex scientific content. Our results demonstrate that closed-source models like GPT-4 and Claude consistently outperform open-source counterparts in precision and recall across claim-evidence identification tasks. Furthermore, strategically designed three-pass and one-by-one prompting approaches significantly improve LLMs' abilities to accurately link dispersed evidence with claims, although this comes at increased computational cost. CLAIM-BENCH sets a new standard for evaluating scientific comprehension in LLMs, offering both a diagnostic tool and a path forward for building systems capable of deeper, more reliable reasoning across full-length papers.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 9, 2025

Do LLMs and VLMs Share Neurons for Inference? Evidence and Mechanisms of Cross-Modal Transfer

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have rapidly advanced across various domains, yet they still lag behind strong text-only large language models (LLMs) on tasks that require multi-step inference and compositional decision-making. Motivated by their shared transformer architectures, we investigate whether the two model families rely on common internal computation for such inference. At the neuron level, we uncover a surprisingly large overlap: more than half of the top-activated units during multi-step inference are shared between representative LLMs and LVLMs, revealing a modality-invariant inference subspace. Through causal probing via activation amplification, we further show that these shared neurons encode consistent and interpretable concept-level effects, demonstrating their functional contribution to inference. Building on this insight, we propose Shared Neuron Low-Rank Fusion (SNRF), a parameter-efficient framework that transfers mature inference circuitry from LLMs to LVLMs. SNRF profiles cross-model activations to identify shared neurons, computes a low-rank approximation of inter-model weight differences, and injects these updates selectively within the shared-neuron subspace. This mechanism strengthens multimodal inference performance with minimal parameter changes and requires no large-scale multimodal fine-tuning. Across diverse mathematics and perception benchmarks, SNRF consistently enhances LVLM inference performance while preserving perceptual capabilities. Our results demonstrate that shared neurons form an interpretable bridge between LLMs and LVLMs, enabling low-cost transfer of inference ability into multimodal models. Our code is available at [https://github.com/chenhangcuisg-code/Do-LLMs-VLMs-Share-Neurons](https://github.com/chenhangcuisg-code/Do-LLMs-VLMs-Share-Neurons).

  • 8 authors
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Feb 22

Beyond Visual Evidence: Revealing and Mitigating Relational Privacy Leakage in Document MLLMs

While the privacy risks of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have drawn significant attention, the unique vulnerabilities of domain-specific MLLMs remain largely underexplored. Focusing on document understanding MLLMs for identity document processing, this paper investigates the privacy issues inherent in Key Information Extraction (KIE) tasks. We reveal that when input images lack sufficient visual evidence, these models often rely on memorized field relations from training data to infer missing content, thereby leaking multiple correlated fields containing sensitive personal information. To mitigate this risk, we make three key contributions.First, we propose the Dynamic Relational Unlearning Framework (DRUF) which comprises a Relational Decoupling Unlearning (RDU) module and a dynamic set update mechanism. It suppresses the leakage of high-risk field pairs while preserving KIE performance.Second, we introduce DocPrivacyBench, a novel benchmark to systematically evaluate a model's susceptibility to privacy leakage under conditions of absent or minimal visual evidence.Third, we evaluate three MLLMs and six unlearning methods using this benchmark, assessing both post-unlearning leakage suppression and utility preservation.Our results demonstrate that existing MLLMs consistently exhibit privacy leakage when visual evidence is scarce, particularly on noisier datasets. In contrast, DRUF outperforms the strongest baseline by improving leakage suppression by 4.8 percentage points, effectively mitigating privacy risks while maintaining robust document information extraction performance.

  • 5 authors
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Aug 12

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51\%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95\% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95\% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started.

  • 50 authors
·
Oct 6, 2023

Skill-CMIB: Multimodal Agent Skill for Consistent Action via Conditional Multimodal Information Bottleneck

While LLM-based agents excel at planning and executing long action sequences, their execution often remains inconsistent across trials, limiting reliability. Consolidating agent consistency requires distilling trial-error trajectories into reusable skills that preserve task-relevant invariants while discarding trajectory-specific noise. However, in multimodal settings, the key challenge is not only that useful invariants are distributed across vision and language information, but that different modalities support different kinds of reusable skill content: while some skills are verbalizable and interpretable, others reside in perceptual evidence beyond text. Text-only skills may lose perceptual cues, whereas storing text and perception naively introduces redundancy and noise. Existing inference-time methods, such as self-consistency, improve reliability through costly multi-sample decoding, while internalization strategies lack a way to separate verbalizable skill content from residual perceptual information. To address this, we introduce Conditional Multimodal Information Bottleneck (CMIB), a method for multimodal skill construction. CMIB begins with a joint bottleneck over multimodal skills and derives an exact sequential decomposition: (1) a text-stage bottleneck distilling interpretable skill cards, and (2) a conditional multimodal bottleneck compressing only residual information in perception that remains predictive beyond text. Unlike naive two-stream formulations, CMIB explicitly conditions the multimodal latent on the text skill, thus structurally reducing cross-modal redundancy and enabling independent control over textual and perceptual compression. We instantiate CMIB with a variational objective that makes its conditional decomposition tractable to optimize, yielding reusable multimodal skills that improve execution stability without incurring multi-sample inference overhead.

  • 9 authors
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May 7

Probing Outcome-Level Resemblance and Mechanism-Level Alignment in LLM Risk Decisions: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Game

LLMs can appear cautious in risk decision-making tasks, yet cautious-looking outputs do not necessarily indicate alignment with human decision-making mechanisms. We investigate this distinction using the St. Petersburg game as a controlled testbed, a classical paradox in which the expected payoff is infinite, yet humans typically report low, finite willingness to pay. We evaluate 28 LLMs with a structured prompt suite that includes the original game; controlled decision variants that perturb truncation, repeated play, numeric endowment, and occupational identity; a human-perspective prompt that asks models to reason as human decision makers; and paired comparisons between base models and their instruction-tuned counterparts. In the original game, most models generate finite bids, creating the appearance of human-like risk behavior. However, this outcome-level resemblance masks substantial mechanism-level differences. The controlled variants reveal that rather than maintaining human-like behavior seen in the original game, models often shift to conditionally and computationally rational behavior. Human-cue prompting and instruction tuning often lower bids and reduce some visible pathologies, but most mechanism-level response patterns remain largely unchanged. These findings show that behavioral alignment in risk decision-making can be surface-level: LLMs may produce human-like risk decisions without exhibiting human-consistent mechanisms. High-stakes evaluations of LLM decision-making should therefore move beyond outcome similarity and examine whether the alignment is supported by mechanism-level consistency.

  • 6 authors
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Jun 2 1

A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for Dynamic Portfolio Optimization: Evidence from China's Stock Market

Artificial intelligence is transforming financial investment decision-making frameworks, with deep reinforcement learning demonstrating substantial potential in robo-advisory applications. This paper addresses the limitations of traditional portfolio optimization methods in dynamic asset weight adjustment through the development of a deep reinforcement learning-based dynamic optimization model grounded in practical trading processes. The research advances two key innovations: first, the introduction of a novel Sharpe ratio reward function engineered for Actor-Critic deep reinforcement learning algorithms, which ensures stable convergence during training while consistently achieving positive average Sharpe ratios; second, the development of an innovative comprehensive approach to portfolio optimization utilizing deep reinforcement learning, which significantly enhances model optimization capability through the integration of random sampling strategies during training with image-based deep neural network architectures for multi-dimensional financial time series data processing, average Sharpe ratio reward functions, and deep reinforcement learning algorithms. The empirical analysis validates the model using randomly selected constituent stocks from the CSI 300 Index, benchmarking against established financial econometric optimization models. Backtesting results demonstrate the model's efficacy in optimizing portfolio allocation and mitigating investment risk, yielding superior comprehensive performance metrics.

  • 3 authors
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Dec 24, 2024

Sidewalk Moments: Are Richer Representations Always More Human-Aligned? Evidence from City-Walk Videos

We examine whether richer visual representations yield more human-aligned measures of urban engagement, using 61 first-person city-walk videos from YouTube segmented into over 50,000 ten-second clips and represented across four modalities: spatiotemporal video features, temporally averaged images (TAIs), audio embeddings, and text-based semantic descriptions. Spearman correlation analysis reveals the expected ordering along the temporal-richness continuum, with video features showing the strongest continuous alignment. However, this ordering breaks down under binary classification of high- versus low-engagement moments (the paradigm most commonly used to train perceptual scoring models), where TAIs consistently match or outperform video across most classifiers and quantile thresholds. An independent two-alternative forced-choice study on Amazon Mechanical Turk confirms that this parity reflects human judgment: participants identified engaging moments with comparable accuracy from TAIs and full video clips, while text performed substantially worse and audio remained near chance. Gap analysis reveals a functional dissociation: video features are advantaged in activity-driven scenes with dynamic content, whereas TAIs better align with human judgments in composition-driven scenes dominated by stable spatial structure. These findings challenge the assumption that richer representations are inherently more human-aligned, and suggest that perceptually grounded temporal compression can be a principled alternative to full video encoding.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 22

DataSpace: Benchmarking Data Agents for Verifiable Analytics over Heterogeneous Workspaces

Data agents enable natural-language analytics over organizational workspaces, where relevant evidence may be scattered across databases, structured files, long documents, and multimedia. Existing benchmarks largely isolate structured querying, retrieval, or open-ended analysis, leaving heterogeneous evidence discovery, complete tabular outputs, and deterministic evaluation insufficiently unified. We introduce DataSpace, a benchmark in which data agents produce verifiable tabular results from task-local heterogeneous workspaces. It contains 410 cross-language tasks and 7,439 artifacts totaling 15.01 GB across CSV, JSON, SQLite, Markdown, PDF, and video. DataSpace also served as the official evaluation benchmark for the KDD Cup 2026 Data Agents for Complex Data Analysis competition. Each agent receives only a question and workspace and returns the complete requested tabular result. We construct DataSpace with DataSpace-Builder, an execution-grounded framework comprising cross-language transformation, constraint-aware relational sampling, modality routing and artifact rendering, and human review and task repair by 11 domain experts. A deterministic evaluator performs header-invariant column alignment, type- and precision-aware normalization, and order-aware row comparison. Across six recently released frontier multimodal models and five widely used agent harnesses, the best accuracy reaches 66.34%, while harness choice creates a 15.36-point spread with the backbone fixed. Multimodal evidence integration and joins consistently reduce accuracy across all six backbones. These results show that DataSpace remains unsaturated and identify key challenges for improving data-agent reliability.

HKUSTDial HKUSTDial
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Aug 3 4

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 Constraints on Extended Cosmological Models

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from Planck. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index d n_s/dln k = 0.0062 pm 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N_{rm eff} = 2.86 pm 0.13, which combined with external BBN data becomes N_{rm eff} = 2.89 pm 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (sum m_nu < 0.082 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N_{rm idr} < 0.134), early-universe variation of fundamental constants, early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or modified recombination. Our data are consistent with standard BBN, the FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature, a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant, and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity. We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline LambdaCDM model. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored by our data.

  • 172 authors
·
Mar 18, 2025