Daily Papers

Financial agents must form forecasts and investment judgments from decision-time evidence, with predictions evaluated against subsequent outcomes. Existing benchmarks assess financial knowledge, research workflows, or forecasting, but evaluating the full research process requires a strictly frozen information set and professional evaluation criteria. We introduce Investor's Last Exam (ILE), an equity-research benchmark led by experienced buy-side investors and fund managers. Its three components are a versioned financial database spanning 3.43 million document versions and nine source categories, supplemented by structured market data, with validated timestamps governing retrieval and computation; a task taxonomy organized around professional analyst deliverables; and an expert-led framework linking scoring criteria to sources, calculations, and assumptions through financial dependency graphs. Evaluation spans 86 assignments and jointly assesses research quality, forecast accuracy, and simulated investment performance. GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5 lead overall at 68.1 and 66.9 out of 100, yet even Astra scores only 52.5 on Forecast & Model. Our results show that even state-of-the-art models fail to translate overall research capability into predictive performance. ILE shifts the evaluation unit from isolated capabilities to the evidence--assumption--judgment chain, allowing researchers to locate where analytical advantages fail to translate into forecasts and investment judgments, and providing a traceable, diagnostic foundation for training and evaluating financial agents.

Dependency graph, as a heterogeneous graph representing the intrinsic relationships between different pairs of system entities, is essential to many data analysis applications, such as root cause diagnosis, intrusion detection, etc. Given a well-trained dependency graph from a source domain and an immature dependency graph from a target domain, how can we extract the entity and dependency knowledge from the source to enhance the target? One way is to directly apply a mature dependency graph learned from a source domain to the target domain. But due to the domain variety problem, directly using the source dependency graph often can not achieve good performance. Traditional transfer learning methods mainly focus on numerical data and are not applicable. In this paper, we propose ACRET, a knowledge transfer based model for accelerating dependency graph learning from heterogeneous categorical event streams. In particular, we first propose an entity estimation model to filter out irrelevant entities from the source domain based on entity embedding and manifold learning. Only the entities with statistically high correlations are transferred to the target domain. On the surviving entities, we propose a dependency construction model for constructing the unbiased dependency relationships by solving a two-constraint optimization problem. The experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of ACRET. We also apply ACRET to a real enterprise security system for intrusion detection. Our method is able to achieve superior detection performance at least 20 days lead lag time in advance with more than 70% accuracy.

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations mandate financial institutions to deploy AML systems based on a set of rules that, when triggered, form the basis of a suspicious alert to be assessed by human analysts. Reviewing these cases is a cumbersome and complex task that requires analysts to navigate a large network of financial interactions to validate suspicious movements. Furthermore, these systems have very high false positive rates (estimated to be over 95\%). The scarcity of labels hinders the use of alternative systems based on supervised learning, reducing their applicability in real-world applications. In this work we present LaundroGraph, a novel self-supervised graph representation learning approach to encode banking customers and financial transactions into meaningful representations. These representations are used to provide insights to assist the AML reviewing process, such as identifying anomalous movements for a given customer. LaundroGraph represents the underlying network of financial interactions as a customer-transaction bipartite graph and trains a graph neural network on a fully self-supervised link prediction task. We empirically demonstrate that our approach outperforms other strong baselines on self-supervised link prediction using a real-world dataset, improving the best non-graph baseline by 12 p.p. of AUC. The goal is to increase the efficiency of the reviewing process by supplying these AI-powered insights to the analysts upon review. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fully self-supervised system within the context of AML detection.

The financial domain poses unique challenges for knowledge graph (KG) construction at scale due to the complexity and regulatory nature of financial documents. Despite the critical importance of structured financial knowledge, the field lacks large-scale, open-source datasets capturing rich semantic relationships from corporate disclosures. We introduce an open-source, large-scale financial knowledge graph dataset built from the latest annual SEC 10-K filings of all S and P 100 companies - a comprehensive resource designed to catalyze research in financial AI. We propose a robust and generalizable knowledge graph (KG) construction framework that integrates intelligent document parsing, table-aware chunking, and schema-guided iterative extraction with a reflection-driven feedback loop. Our system incorporates a comprehensive evaluation pipeline, combining rule-based checks, statistical validation, and LLM-as-a-Judge assessments to holistically measure extraction quality. We support three extraction modes - single-pass, multi-pass, and reflection-agent-based - allowing flexible trade-offs between efficiency, accuracy, and reliability based on user requirements. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the reflection-agent-based mode consistently achieves the best balance, attaining a 64.8 percent compliance score against all rule-based policies (CheckRules) and outperforming baseline methods (single-pass and multi-pass) across key metrics such as precision, comprehensiveness, and relevance in LLM-guided evaluations.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

As economics scales, a key bottleneck is representing what papers claim in a comparable, aggregable form. We introduce evidence-annotated claim graphs that map each paper into a directed network of standardized economic concepts (nodes) and stated relationships (edges), with each edge labeled by evidentiary basis, including whether it is supported by causal inference designs or by non-causal evidence. Using a structured multi-stage AI workflow, we construct claim graphs for 44,852 economics papers from 1980-2023. The share of causal edges rises from 7.7% in 1990 to 31.7% in 2020. Measures of causal narrative structure and causal novelty are positively associated with top-five publication and long-run citations, whereas non-causal counterparts are weakly related or negative.

Long-range dependencies are critical for effective graph representation learning, yet most existing datasets focus on small graphs tailored to inductive tasks, offering limited insight into long-range interactions. Current evaluations primarily compare models employing global attention (e.g., graph transformers) with those using local neighborhood aggregation (e.g., message-passing neural networks) without a direct measurement of long-range dependency. In this work, we introduce City-Networks, a novel large-scale transductive learning dataset derived from real-world city roads. This dataset features graphs with over 10^5 nodes and significantly larger diameters than those in existing benchmarks, naturally embodying long-range information. We annotate the graphs using an eccentricity-based approach, ensuring that the classification task inherently requires information from distant nodes. Furthermore, we propose a model-agnostic measurement based on the Jacobians of neighbors from distant hops, offering a principled quantification of long-range dependencies. Finally, we provide theoretical justifications for both our dataset design and the proposed measurement - particularly by focusing on over-smoothing and influence score dilution - which establishes a robust foundation for further exploration of long-range interactions in graph neural networks.

Quantifying the similarity between a group of companies has proven to be useful for several purposes, including company benchmarking, fraud detection, and searching for investment opportunities. This exercise can be done using a variety of data sources, such as company activity data and financial data. However, ledger account data is widely available and is standardized to a large extent. Such ledger accounts within a financial statement can be represented by means of a tree, i.e. a special type of graph, representing both the values of the ledger accounts and the relationships between them. Given their broad availability and rich information content, financial statements form a prime data source based on which company similarities or distances could be computed. In this paper, we present a graph distance metric that enables one to compute the similarity between the financial statements of two companies. We conduct a comprehensive experimental study using real-world financial data to demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed distance metric. The experimental results show promising results on a number of use cases. This method may be useful for investors looking for investment opportunities, government officials attempting to identify fraudulent companies, and accountants looking to benchmark a group of companies based on their financial statements.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.

Mathematical knowledge is organized around statements and their dependencies, but this structure is exposed unevenly: informal papers cite mostly at the document level, while formal libraries record fine-grained dependencies over a much smaller body of mathematics. We introduce TheoremGraph, a unified statement-level dependency graph spanning both informal and formal mathematics. On the informal side, we parse 11.7M theorem-like environments from mathematics arXiv and recover 18.3M candidate directed dependencies, each labeled by the extractor that proposed it so downstream users can trade coverage for precision. On the formal side, we release LeanGraph, a Lean 4 elaborator-level extractor producing 388,105 declaration nodes and 11.3M typed edges across 25 Lean projects. We bridge the two graphs by embedding generated natural-language slogans into a shared semantic space, linking related statements across papers and across the informal/formal divide; an LLM judge affirms 47,952 such matches above a 0.8 cosine floor, with the judge-acceptance rate rising from 48% across the floor to 87% in the >=0.9 tier. On formal concept retrieval, our name-and-signature representation with graph expansion comes within 0.5pp of LeanSearch v2's reranked Recall@10 (0.775 vs. 0.780) without an LM reranker. We release the dataset, extractors, HTTP API, and MCP interface as infrastructure for mathematical search, attribution, and retrieval-augmented reasoning, available at theoremsearch.com and huggingface.co/datasets/uw-math-ai/theorem-matching.

Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.

Multi-agent systems powered by Large Language Models excel at complex tasks through coordinated collaboration, yet they face high failure rates in multi-turn deep search scenarios. Existing temporal attribution methods struggle to accurately diagnose root causes, particularly when errors propagate across multiple agents. Attempts to automate failure attribution by analyzing action sequences remain ineffective due to their inability to account for information dependencies that span agents. This paper identifies two core challenges: (i) distinguishing symptoms from root causes in multi-agent error propagation, and (ii) tracing information dependencies beyond temporal order. To address these issues, we introduce GraphTracer, a framework that redefines failure attribution through information flow analysis. GraphTracer constructs Information Dependency Graphs (IDGs) to explicitly capture how agents reference and build on prior outputs. It localizes root causes by tracing through these dependency structures instead of relying on temporal sequences. GraphTracer also uses graph-aware synthetic data generation to target critical nodes, creating realistic failure scenarios. Evaluations on the Who\&When benchmark and integration into production systems demonstrate that GraphTracer-8B achieves up to 18.18\% higher attribution accuracy compared to state-of-the-art models and enables 4.8\% to 14.2\% performance improvements in deployed multi-agent frameworks, establishing a robust solution for multi-agent system debugging.

Coopetition refers to simultaneous cooperation and competition among actors wherein actors 'cooperate to grow the pie and compete to split it up.' Modern socio-technical systems are characterized by strategic coopetition wherein actors concomitantly cooperate to create value and compete to capture it. While conceptual modeling languages such as i* provide rich qualitative representations of strategic dependencies, they lack mechanisms for quantitative analysis of dynamic trade-offs. Conversely, classical game theory offers mathematical rigor but strips away contextual richness. This report bridges this gap by developing computational foundations that formalize two critical dimensions of coopetition: interdependence and complementarity. We ground interdependence in i* structural dependency analysis, translating depender-dependee-dependum relationships into quantitative interdependence coefficients via a structured translation framework. We formalize complementarity following Brandenburger and Nalebuff's Added Value concept, modeling synergistic value creation with validated parameterization. We integrate structural dependencies with bargaining power in value appropriation and introduce a game-theoretic formulation where Nash Equilibrium incorporates structural interdependence. Validation combines over 22,000 experimental trials across power and logarithmic specifications with the Samsung-Sony S-LCD joint venture (2004-2011). Under strict historical alignment scoring, logarithmic specifications achieve 58/60 compared to power functions (46/60), producing realistic 41% cooperation increases aligning with documented S-LCD patterns while power functions produce 166% increases exceeding realistic bounds. Statistical significance confirmed at p < 0.001, Cohen's d > 9.

Financial agents are expected to answer factual investment queries through open search, but financial multi-hop retrieval differs from general multi-hop QA in a crucial way: each intermediate answer is an exact typed constraint, such as an entity, date, event, or numerical indicator, that determines the next query. This strict answer-conditioned dependency makes small intermediate errors cascade into plausible but wrong search trajectories. We introduce FinHopper, a benchmark for complex financial agents with controlled reasoning depth from 1 to 6 hops, covering stocks, funds, and macroeconomic facts, with gold intermediate answers for process-level evaluation. To construct FinHopper at scale, we design a state-transition-based synthesis framework that composes verified atomic financial QA patterns into dependency-preserving chains, followed by targeted in-synthesis verification, model-ensemble checking, and public-search validation by financial experts. Experiments with 20 LLM-agent configurations show that public search tools are necessary but insufficient: performance drops sharply as hop depth increases, the best model remains far below human experts, and process-aware scoring reveals partial reasoning progress hidden by final-answer-only evaluation. The benchmark is available at https://github.com/justajustin/FinHopper/.

Personalized financial advice requires consideration of user goals, constraints, risk tolerance, and jurisdiction. Prior LLM work has focused on support systems for investors and financial planners. Simultaneously, numerous recent studies examine broader personal finance tasks, including budgeting, debt management, retirement, and estate planning, through agentic pipelines that incur high maintenance costs, yielding less than 25% of their expected financial returns. In this study, we introduce a novel and reproducible framework that integrates relevant financial context with behavioral finance studies to construct supervision data for end-to-end advisors. Using this framework, we create a 19k sample reasoning dataset and conduct a comprehensive fine-tuning of the Qwen-3-8B model on the dataset. Through a held-out test split and a blind LLM-jury study, we demonstrate that through careful data curation and behavioral integration, our 8B model achieves performance comparable to significantly larger baselines (14-32B parameters) across factual accuracy, fluency, and personalization metrics while incurring 80% lower costs than the larger counterparts.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

With the emergence of data marketplaces, the demand for methods to assess the value of data has increased significantly. While numerous techniques have been proposed for this purpose, none have specifically addressed graphs as the main data modality. Graphs are widely used across various fields, ranging from chemical molecules to social networks. In this study, we break down graphs into two main components: structural and featural, and we focus on evaluating data without relying on specific task-related metrics, making it applicable in practical scenarios where validation requirements may be lacking. We introduce a novel framework called blind message passing, which aligns the seller's and buyer's graphs using a shared node permutation based on graph matching. This allows us to utilize the graph Wasserstein distance to quantify the differences in the structural distribution of graph datasets, called the structural disparities. We then consider featural aspects of buyers' and sellers' graphs for data valuation and capture their statistical similarities and differences, referred to as relevance and diversity, respectively. Our approach ensures that buyers and sellers remain unaware of each other's datasets. Our experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in capturing the relevance, diversity, and structural disparities of seller data for buyers, particularly in graph-based data valuation scenarios.

Recent works have demonstrated the benefits of capturing long-distance dependency in graphs by deeper graph neural networks (GNNs). But deeper GNNs suffer from the long-lasting scalability challenge due to the neighborhood explosion problem in large-scale graphs. In this work, we propose to capture long-distance dependency in graphs by shallower models instead of deeper models, which leads to a much more efficient model, LazyGNN, for graph representation learning. Moreover, we demonstrate that LazyGNN is compatible with existing scalable approaches (such as sampling methods) for further accelerations through the development of mini-batch LazyGNN. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate its superior prediction performance and scalability on large-scale benchmarks. The implementation of LazyGNN is available at https://github.com/RXPHD/Lazy_GNN.

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key policy tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing toward a net-zero economy. Under this scheme, tradeable carbon credits, European Union Allowances (EUAs), are issued to large emitters, who can buy and sell them on regulated markets. We investigate the influence of financial, economic, and energy-related factors on EUA futures prices using discrete and dynamic Bayesian networks to model both contemporaneous and time-lagged dependencies. The analysis is based on daily data spanning the third and fourth ETS trading phases (2013-2025), incorporating a wide range of indicators including energy commodities, equity indices, exchange rates, and bond markets. Results reveal that EUA pricing is most influenced by energy commodities, especially coal and oil futures, and by the performance of the European energy sector. Broader market sentiment, captured through stock indices and volatility measures, affects EUA prices indirectly via changes in energy demand. The dynamic model confirms a modest next-day predictive influence from oil markets, while most other effects remain contemporaneous. These insights offer regulators, institutional investors, and firms subject to ETS compliance a clearer understanding of the interconnected forces shaping the carbon market, supporting more effective hedging, investment strategies, and policy design.

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

The rapid advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have unlocked transformative possibilities in natural language processing, particularly within the financial sector. Financial data is often embedded in intricate relationships across textual content, numerical tables, and visual charts, posing challenges that traditional methods struggle to address effectively. However, the emergence of LLMs offers new pathways for processing and analyzing this multifaceted data with increased efficiency and insight. Despite the fast pace of innovation in LLM research, there remains a significant gap in their practical adoption within the finance industry, where cautious integration and long-term validation are prioritized. This disparity has led to a slower implementation of emerging LLM techniques, despite their immense potential in financial applications. As a result, many of the latest advancements in LLM technology remain underexplored or not fully utilized in this domain. This survey seeks to bridge this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of recent developments in LLM research and examining their applicability to the financial sector. Building on previous survey literature, we highlight several novel LLM methodologies, exploring their distinctive capabilities and their potential relevance to financial data analysis. By synthesizing insights from a broad range of studies, this paper aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners, offering direction on promising research avenues and outlining future opportunities for advancing LLM applications in finance.

Subgraph representation learning is a technique for analyzing local structures (or shapes) within complex networks. Enabled by recent developments in scalable Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), this approach encodes relational information at a subgroup level (multiple connected nodes) rather than at a node level of abstraction. We posit that certain domain applications, such as anti-money laundering (AML), are inherently subgraph problems and mainstream graph techniques have been operating at a suboptimal level of abstraction. This is due in part to the scarcity of annotated datasets of real-world size and complexity, as well as the lack of software tools for managing subgraph GNN workflows at scale. To enable work in fundamental algorithms as well as domain applications in AML and beyond, we introduce Elliptic2, a large graph dataset containing 122K labeled subgraphs of Bitcoin clusters within a background graph consisting of 49M node clusters and 196M edge transactions. The dataset provides subgraphs known to be linked to illicit activity for learning the set of "shapes" that money laundering exhibits in cryptocurrency and accurately classifying new criminal activity. Along with the dataset we share our graph techniques, software tooling, promising early experimental results, and new domain insights already gleaned from this approach. Taken together, we find immediate practical value in this approach and the potential for a new standard in anti-money laundering and forensic analytics in cryptocurrencies and other financial networks.

As concerns surrounding AI-driven labor displacement intensify in knowledge-intensive sectors, existing benchmarks fail to measure performance on tasks that define practical professional expertise. Finance, in particular, has been identified as a domain with high AI exposure risk, yet lacks robust benchmarks to track real-world developments. This gap is compounded by the absence of clear accountability mechanisms in current Large Language Model (LLM) deployments. To address this, we introduce FrontierFinance, a long-horizon benchmark of 25 complex financial modeling tasks across five core finance models, requiring an average of over 18 hours of skilled human labor per task to complete. Developed with financial professionals, the benchmark reflects industry-standard financial modeling workflows and is paired with detailed rubrics for structured evaluation. We engage human experts to define the tasks, create rubrics, grade LLMs, and perform the tasks themselves as human baselines. We demonstrate that our human experts both receive higher scores on average, and are more likely to provide client-ready outputs than current state-of-the-art systems.

Since its 2009 genesis block, the Bitcoin network has processed >1.08 billion (B) transactions representing >8.72B BTC, offering rich potential for machine learning (ML); yet, its pseudonymity and obscured flow of funds inherent in its \utxo-based design, have rendered this data largely inaccessible for ML research. Addressing this gap, we present an ML-compatible graph modeling the Bitcoin's economic topology by reconstructing the flow of funds. This temporal, heterogeneous graph encompasses complete transaction history up to block \cutoffHeight, consisting of >2.4B nodes and >39.72B edges. Additionally, we provide custom sampling methods yielding node and edge feature vectors of sampled communities, tools to load and analyze the Bitcoin graph data within specialized graph databases, and ready-to-use database snapshots. This comprehensive dataset and toolkit empower the ML community to tackle Bitcoin's intricate ecosystem at scale, driving progress in applications such as anomaly detection, address classification, market analysis, and large-scale graph ML benchmarking. Dataset and code available at https://github.com/B1AAB/EBA{github.com/b1aab/eba}

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

Causal Inference plays an significant role in explaining the decisions taken by statistical models and artificial intelligence models. Of late, this field started attracting the attention of researchers and practitioners alike. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of 37 papers published during 1992-2023 and concerning the application of causal inference to banking, finance, and insurance. The papers are categorized according to the following families of domains: (i) Banking, (ii) Finance and its subdomains such as corporate finance, governance finance including financial risk and financial policy, financial economics, and Behavioral finance, and (iii) Insurance. Further, the paper covers the primary ingredients of causal inference namely, statistical methods such as Bayesian Causal Network, Granger Causality and jargon used thereof such as counterfactuals. The review also recommends some important directions for future research. In conclusion, we observed that the application of causal inference in the banking and insurance sectors is still in its infancy, and thus more research is possible to turn it into a viable method.

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), particularly freelancers and early-stage businesses, face unique financial management challenges due to limited resources, small customer bases, and constrained data availability. This paper presents the development and deployment of an integrated financial prediction system that combines accounts receivable prediction and cash flow forecasting specifically designed for SME operational constraints. Our system addresses the gap between enterprise-focused financial tools and the practical needs of freelancers and small businesses. The solution integrates two key components: a binary classification model for predicting invoice payment delays, and a multi-module cash flow forecasting model that handles incomplete and limited historical data. A prototype system has been implemented and deployed as a web application with integration into Cluee's platform, a startup providing financial management tools for freelancers, demonstrating practical feasibility for real-world SME financial management.

Transaction data from digital payment systems can be used to study economic processes at such a detail that was not possible previously. Here, we analyse the data from Sarafu token network, a community inclusion currency in Kenya. During the COVID-19 emergency, the Sarafu was disbursed as part of a humanitarian aid project. In this work, the transactions are analysed using network science. A topological categorisation is defined to identify cyclic and acyclic components. Furthermore, temporal aspects of circulation taking place within these components are considered. The significant presence of different types of strongly connected components as compared to randomized null models shows the importance of cycles in this economic network. Especially, indicating their key role in currency recirculation. In some acyclic components, the most significant triad suggests the presence of a group of users collecting currency from accounts active only once, hinting at a misuse of the system. In some other acyclic components, small isolated groups of users were active only once, suggesting the presence of users only interested in trying out the system. The methods used in this paper can answer specific questions related to user activities, currency design, and assessment of monetary interventions. Our methodology provides a general quantitative tool for analysing the behaviour of users in a currency network.

Can one graph represent every kind of LLM agent's run? A trace records what each step did, never what it relied on, the state it read, and the results it reused. GRADE recovers that missing layer: it models any run as one graph over its step nodes with two edge layers, execution edges (what ran in what order) read from the trace for free, and dependency edges (what each step relied on) rarely logged, so each is graded by how it is known, observed, declared, or inferred. One representation, and each layer earns its place. Across six corpora of LLM agents spanning tool use, coding, and the web, the dependency layer can predict failure where run size is weak and, under leave-one-corpus-out transfer, stays above chance on every held-out class while run size fails. Meanwhile, the execution layer localizes the faulting step in a failed multi-agent run. This work also provides a more in-depth analysis of why generic graph neural networks may misread the dependency layer, unlike our feature-based alternative. The same graph representation opens further uses, carrying from failure diagnosis in a single run to efficiency and robustness optimization at scale.

Financial transaction fraud prevention faces challenges such as complex relationship structures, concealed behavioral patterns, and dynamically changing data distribution. Discrimination models relying solely on independent sample features are insufficient to fully characterize the risks of group collaboration and chain transfers within transaction networks. This paper proposes a graph neural network representation learning and risk discrimination framework for financial transaction fraud prevention. It integrates transaction records and identity information into node attributes and constructs a transaction graph based on shared attributes and interaction consistency to explicitly model inter-transaction relationships. In model design, a multi-layer message passing mechanism is employed to aggregate neighborhood information, learn node embedding representations containing structural context semantics, and output transaction-level fraud probability and risk scores through a lightweight risk discrimination head. A weighted supervision objective is introduced to mitigate training bias caused by class imbalance, and structural consistency regularization constraints are combined to suppress the impact of noisy edges on representation drift, thereby improving the stability and usability of risk characterization. Experiments are conducted on a publicly available financial transaction dataset, comparing various methods in the same direction and comprehensively evaluating them under a unified evaluation protocol. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other methods in risk ranking and probability calibration quality, validating the effectiveness of graph structure modeling and representation learning collaboration in financial transaction fraud prevention.

In recent years, multimodal benchmarks for general domains have guided the rapid development of multimodal models on general tasks. However, the financial field has its peculiarities. It features unique graphical images (e.g., candlestick charts, technical indicator charts) and possesses a wealth of specialized financial knowledge (e.g., futures, turnover rate). Therefore, benchmarks from general fields often fail to measure the performance of multimodal models in the financial domain, and thus cannot effectively guide the rapid development of large financial models. To promote the development of large financial multimodal models, we propose MME-Finance, an bilingual open-ended and practical usage-oriented Visual Question Answering (VQA) benchmark. The characteristics of our benchmark are finance and expertise, which include constructing charts that reflect the actual usage needs of users (e.g., computer screenshots and mobile photography), creating questions according to the preferences in financial domain inquiries, and annotating questions by experts with 10+ years of experience in the financial industry. Additionally, we have developed a custom-designed financial evaluation system in which visual information is first introduced in the multi-modal evaluation process. Extensive experimental evaluations of 19 mainstream MLLMs are conducted to test their perception, reasoning, and cognition capabilities. The results indicate that models performing well on general benchmarks cannot do well on MME-Finance; for instance, the top-performing open-source and closed-source models obtain 65.69 (Qwen2VL-72B) and 63.18 (GPT-4o), respectively. Their performance is particularly poor in categories most relevant to finance, such as candlestick charts and technical indicator charts. In addition, we propose a Chinese version, which helps compare performance of MLLMs under a Chinese context.

Financial institutions deploy Large Language Models (LLMs) for reconciliations, regulatory reporting, and client communications, but nondeterministic outputs (output drift) undermine auditability and trust. We quantify drift across five model architectures (7B-120B parameters) on regulated financial tasks, revealing a stark inverse relationship: smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency at T=0.0, while GPT-OSS-120B exhibits only 12.5% consistency (95% CI: 3.5-36.0%) regardless of configuration (p<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). This finding challenges conventional assumptions that larger models are universally superior for production deployment. Our contributions include: (i) a finance-calibrated deterministic test harness combining greedy decoding (T=0.0), fixed seeds, and SEC 10-K structure-aware retrieval ordering; (ii) task-specific invariant checking for RAG, JSON, and SQL outputs using finance-calibrated materiality thresholds (plus or minus 5%) and SEC citation validation; (iii) a three-tier model classification system enabling risk-appropriate deployment decisions; and (iv) an audit-ready attestation system with dual-provider validation. We evaluated five models (Qwen2.5-7B via Ollama, Granite-3-8B via IBM watsonx.ai, Llama-3.3-70B, Mistral-Medium-2505, and GPT-OSS-120B) across three regulated financial tasks. Across 480 runs (n=16 per condition), structured tasks (SQL) remain stable even at T=0.2, while RAG tasks show drift (25-75%), revealing task-dependent sensitivity. Cross-provider validation confirms deterministic behavior transfers between local and cloud deployments. We map our framework to Financial Stability Board (FSB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requirements, demonstrating practical pathways for compliance-ready AI deployments.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Graph Structure Learning (GSL) focuses on capturing intrinsic dependencies and interactions among nodes in graph-structured data by generating novel graph structures. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as promising GSL solutions, utilizing recursive message passing to encode node-wise inter-dependencies. However, many existing GSL methods heavily depend on explicit graph structural information as supervision signals, leaving them susceptible to challenges such as data noise and sparsity. In this work, we propose GraphEdit, an approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) to learn complex node relationships in graph-structured data. By enhancing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs through instruction-tuning over graph structures, we aim to overcome the limitations associated with explicit graph structural information and enhance the reliability of graph structure learning. Our approach not only effectively denoises noisy connections but also identifies node-wise dependencies from a global perspective, providing a comprehensive understanding of the graph structure. We conduct extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of GraphEdit across various settings. We have made our model implementation available at: https://github.com/HKUDS/GraphEdit.

Organized crime inflicts human suffering on a genocidal scale: the Mexican drug cartels have murdered 150,000 people since 2006, upwards of 700,000 people per year are "exported" in a human trafficking industry enslaving an estimated 40 million people. These nefarious industries rely on sophisticated money laundering schemes to operate. Despite tremendous resources dedicated to anti-money laundering (AML) only a tiny fraction of illicit activity is prevented. The research community can help. In this brief paper, we map the structural and behavioral dynamics driving the technical challenge. We review AML methods, current and emergent. We provide a first look at scalable graph convolutional neural networks for forensic analysis of financial data, which is massive, dense, and dynamic. We report preliminary experimental results using a large synthetic graph (1M nodes, 9M edges) generated by a data simulator we created called AMLSim. We consider opportunities for high performance efficiency, in terms of computation and memory, and we share results from a simple graph compression experiment. Our results support our working hypothesis that graph deep learning for AML bears great promise in the fight against criminal financial activity.

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into the financial domain is driving a paradigm shift from passive information retrieval to dynamic, agentic interaction. While general-purpose tool learning has witnessed a surge in benchmarks, the financial sector, characterized by high stakes, strict compliance, and rapid data volatility, remains critically underserved. Existing financial evaluations predominantly focus on static textual analysis or document-based QA, ignoring the complex reality of tool execution. Conversely, general tool benchmarks lack the domain-specific rigor required for finance, often relying on toy environments or a negligible number of financial APIs. To bridge this gap, we introduce FinToolBench, the first real-world, runnable benchmark dedicated to evaluating financial tool learning agents. Unlike prior works limited to a handful of mock tools, FinToolBench establishes a realistic ecosystem coupling 760 executable financial tools with 295 rigorous, tool-required queries. We propose a novel evaluation framework that goes beyond binary execution success, assessing agents on finance-critical dimensions: timeliness, intent type, and regulatory domain alignment. Furthermore, we present FATR, a finance-aware tool retrieval and reasoning baseline that enhances stability and compliance. By providing the first testbed for auditable, agentic financial execution, FinToolBench sets a new standard for trustworthy AI in finance. The tool manifest, execution environment, and evaluation code will be open-sourced to facilitate future research.

Large language models (LLMs) have been widely applied across various domains of finance. Since their training data are largely derived from human-authored corpora, LLMs may inherit a range of human biases. Behavioral biases can lead to instability and uncertainty in decision-making, particularly when processing financial information. However, existing research on LLM bias has mainly focused on direct questioning or simplified, general-purpose settings, with limited consideration of the complex real-world financial environments and high-risk, context-sensitive, multilingual financial misinformation detection tasks (\mfmd). In this work, we propose \mfmdscen, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating behavioral biases of LLMs in \mfmd across diverse economic scenarios. In collaboration with financial experts, we construct three types of complex financial scenarios: (i) role- and personality-based, (ii) role- and region-based, and (iii) role-based scenarios incorporating ethnicity and religious beliefs. We further develop a multilingual financial misinformation dataset covering English, Chinese, Greek, and Bengali. By integrating these scenarios with misinformation claims, \mfmdscen enables a systematic evaluation of 22 mainstream LLMs. Our findings reveal that pronounced behavioral biases persist across both commercial and open-source models. This project will be available at https://github.com/lzw108/FMD.

This study examines cross-asset connectedness in an international financial network of major exchange rates, gold futures, and Bitcoin. Moving beyond the conventional net transmitter--receiver classification, we characterize asset roles through three complementary dimensions: direct spillover transmission, stationary source-tracing dynamics, and multistep upstream connectivity. Return spillovers are estimated using VAR generalized forecast-error variance decomposition (VAR-GFEVD). The positive pairwise net-spillover structure is then mapped into a row-stochastic Markov kernel whose transitions trace dominant net-spillover sources in the reverse direction of the original transmission edges. A stationary departure flux describes long-run movement in this source-tracing chain, while Viral Centrality is evaluated by the deterministic probability-propagation algorithm of Fink et al. to approximate multistep upstream reach. Empirically, gold futures emerge as the dominant direct net transmitter and the leading stationary source-tracing node, but do not have the largest Viral Centrality. Several exchange-rate nodes classified as direct net receivers have relatively high Viral Centrality, indicating broad conditional access to upstream source nodes. Bitcoin occupies an intermediate role. An auxiliary specification including the U.S. Dollar Index yields qualitatively similar role differentiation. The results show that direct connectedness, stationary source tracing, and approximate multistep upstream reach cannot be inferred from NET spillovers alone. All diffusion interpretations are descriptive and conditional on the estimated network, row normalization, and restart closure.

How would randomly shuffling feature vectors among nodes from the same class affect graph neural networks (GNNs)? The feature shuffle, intuitively, perturbs the dependence between graph topology and features (A-X dependence) for GNNs to learn from. Surprisingly, we observe a consistent and significant improvement in GNN performance following the feature shuffle. Having overlooked the impact of A-X dependence on GNNs, the prior literature does not provide a satisfactory understanding of the phenomenon. Thus, we raise two research questions. First, how should A-X dependence be measured, while controlling for potential confounds? Second, how does A-X dependence affect GNNs? In response, we (i) propose a principled measure for A-X dependence, (ii) design a random graph model that controls A-X dependence, (iii) establish a theory on how A-X dependence relates to graph convolution, and (iv) present empirical analysis on real-world graphs that align with the theory. We conclude that A-X dependence mediates the effect of graph convolution, such that smaller dependence improves GNN-based node classification.

Diffusion and autoregression (AR) have long been seen as different categories of generative models, with diffusion specialising in continuous fields and AR specialising in discrete tokens. Recent work seeks to combine the advantages of the two models, and each hybrid fixes its decoding schedule by design. In this paper, we ask whether the performance of decoding schedules of one model can be predicted before decoding at a fixed number of steps. We describe diffusion, AR, and models in between as paths on one corruption lattice, and define the cost of a schedule as the dependence its parallel steps discard. The cost shows that the fewest steps of a zero-cost schedule are set by the geometry of the data, in the same way for tokens and for continuous fields. In particular, for data that are Markov on a graph and dependent along its paths, the fewest steps equal the graph's treedepth, which is logarithmic in the length of a sequence and linear in the side length of a grid. With fewer steps than the treedepth, every schedule pays a positive cost, whose ranking we predict before decoding with a kernel of pairwise dependence estimated from pretrained weights. Across text generation, image generation, and video generation, we verify most of the predictions about the rankings of different schedules under different metrics and benchmarks. This work therefore provides a design principle for decoding for future AR models, diffusion models, and anything in between. Our code is available at https://github.com/TSUITUENYUE/The-Lattice-of-Transition-Laws.

Foundation models have emerged as critical components in a variety of artificial intelligence applications, and showcase significant success in natural language processing and several other domains. Meanwhile, the field of graph machine learning is witnessing a paradigm transition from shallow methods to more sophisticated deep learning approaches. The capabilities of foundation models to generalize and adapt motivate graph machine learning researchers to discuss the potential of developing a new graph learning paradigm. This paradigm envisions models that are pre-trained on extensive graph data and can be adapted for various graph tasks. Despite this burgeoning interest, there is a noticeable lack of clear definitions and systematic analyses pertaining to this new domain. To this end, this article introduces the concept of Graph Foundation Models (GFMs), and offers an exhaustive explanation of their key characteristics and underlying technologies. We proceed to classify the existing work related to GFMs into three distinct categories, based on their dependence on graph neural networks and large language models. In addition to providing a thorough review of the current state of GFMs, this article also outlooks potential avenues for future research in this rapidly evolving domain.

Relational databases (RDBs) are composed of interconnected tables, where relationships between them are defined through foreign keys. Recent research on applying machine learning to RDBs has explored graph-based representations of RDBs, where rows of tables are modeled as nodes, and foreign key relationships are modeled as edges. RDB-to-graph modeling helps capture cross-table dependencies, ultimately leading to enhanced performance across diverse tasks. However, there are numerous ways to model RDBs as graphs, and performance varies significantly depending on the chosen graph model. In our analysis, applying a common heuristic rule for graph modeling leads to up to a 10% drop in performance compared to the best-performing graph model, which remains non-trivial to identify. To foster research on intelligent RDB-to-graph modeling, we introduce RDB2G-Bench, the first benchmark framework for evaluating such methods. We construct extensive datasets covering 5 real-world RDBs and 12 predictive tasks, resulting in around 50k graph-performance pairs for efficient and reproducible evaluations. Thanks to our precomputed datasets, we were able to benchmark 9 automatic RDB-to-graph modeling methods on the 12 tasks over 600x faster than on-the-fly evaluation, which requires repeated model training. Our analysis of the datasets and benchmark results reveals key structural patterns affecting graph model effectiveness, along with practical implications for effective graph modeling.

This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the need for robust exchange rate policies, skilled migration, and formal financial channels to enhance long-term economic resilience.

Large-scale digital platforms generate billions of timestamped user-item interactions (events) that are crucial for predicting user attributes in, e.g., fraud prevention and recommendations. While self-supervised learning (SSL) effectively models the temporal order of events, it typically overlooks the global structure of the user-item interaction graph. To bridge this gap, we propose three model-agnostic strategies for integrating this structural information into contrastive SSL: enriching event embeddings, aligning client representations with graph embeddings, and adding a structural pretext task. Experiments on four financial and e-commerce datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently improves the accuracy (up to a 2.3% AUC) and reveals that graph density is a key factor in selecting the optimal integration strategy.

The ongoing development of Lean 4's Mathlib has produced a macroscopic structural complexity that interweaves logical, mathematical, and infrastructural dependencies. We present a network analysis of this library, extracting its dependency structure into a multilayer graph of 308,129 declarations, 8.4 million edges, and 7,563 modules. By introducing graph decompositions that isolate explicit edges from those synthesized by the compiler or driven by proofs, we quantify the structural properties of formalized mathematics. Our analysis reveals three findings. First, taxonomies designed by humans diverge from logical structures, exhibiting a 50.9% coupling across namespaces. Second, developers utilize a median of 1.6% of the imported scope. Third, formalization compresses semantic hierarchies, with network centrality capturing language infrastructure rather than mathematical relevance.

In this paper, we present "Graph Feature Preprocessor", a software library for detecting typical money laundering patterns in financial transaction graphs in real time. These patterns are used to produce a rich set of transaction features for downstream machine learning training and inference tasks such as detection of fraudulent financial transactions. We show that our enriched transaction features dramatically improve the prediction accuracy of gradient-boosting-based machine learning models. Our library exploits multicore parallelism, maintains a dynamic in-memory graph, and efficiently mines subgraph patterns in the incoming transaction stream, which enables it to be operated in a streaming manner. Our solution, which combines our Graph Feature Preprocessor and gradient-boosting-based machine learning models, can detect illicit transactions with higher minority-class F1 scores than standard graph neural networks in anti-money laundering and phishing datasets. In addition, the end-to-end throughput rate of our solution executed on a multicore CPU outperforms the graph neural network baselines executed on a powerful V100 GPU. Overall, the combination of high accuracy, a high throughput rate, and low latency of our solution demonstrates the practical value of our library in real-world applications.

Graphs are a powerful tool for representing and analyzing complex relationships in real-world applications such as social networks, recommender systems, and computational finance. Reasoning on graphs is essential for drawing inferences about the relationships between entities in a complex system, and to identify hidden patterns and trends. Despite the remarkable progress in automated reasoning with natural text, reasoning on graphs with large language models (LLMs) remains an understudied problem. In this work, we perform the first comprehensive study of encoding graph-structured data as text for consumption by LLMs. We show that LLM performance on graph reasoning tasks varies on three fundamental levels: (1) the graph encoding method, (2) the nature of the graph task itself, and (3) interestingly, the very structure of the graph considered. These novel results provide valuable insight on strategies for encoding graphs as text. Using these insights we illustrate how the correct choice of encoders can boost performance on graph reasoning tasks inside LLMs by 4.8% to 61.8%, depending on the task.

Optimizing multiple conversion objectives is a core challenge in industrial recommendation, often limited by signal erosion in rigid architectures. Existing Multi-Task Learning (MTL) methods typically enforce uniform dependency strengths across a static conversion funnel, overlooking how task correlations naturally vary based on item characteristics. Hierarchical message passing along these fixed chains leads to cumulative signal attenuation, which degrades performance on sparse, deep-funnel objectives. To address this, we propose the Personalized Task Dependency Graphs (PTDG). While respecting necessary physical causal constraints (e.g., Click -> Pay), PTDG dynamically "rewires" the intensity of dependency pathways for each item via low-rank approximation to ensure structural robustness. We implement a GCN-based propagation with hard causal masking to establish adaptive information shortcuts. Additionally, we introduce an Adaptive Progressive Masking (APM) strategy that decouples shared parameters according to task sparsity, helping to stabilize optimization. Experiments on KuaiRand1K and an industrial dataset show that PTDG significantly improves AUC on sparse conversion tasks by up to 1.45%, while maintaining comparable performance on dense objectives. Online A/B testing shows PTDG improves Conversion Rate (CVR) by 1.2% and effective Cost Per Mille (eCPM) by 1.9% relative to the baseline.

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations play a critical role in safeguarding financial systems, but bear high costs for institutions and drive financial exclusion for those on the socioeconomic and international margins. The advent of cryptocurrency has introduced an intriguing paradox: pseudonymity allows criminals to hide in plain sight, but open data gives more power to investigators and enables the crowdsourcing of forensic analysis. Meanwhile advances in learning algorithms show great promise for the AML toolkit. In this workshop tutorial, we motivate the opportunity to reconcile the cause of safety with that of financial inclusion. We contribute the Elliptic Data Set, a time series graph of over 200K Bitcoin transactions (nodes), 234K directed payment flows (edges), and 166 node features, including ones based on non-public data; to our knowledge, this is the largest labelled transaction data set publicly available in any cryptocurrency. We share results from a binary classification task predicting illicit transactions using variations of Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP), and Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), with GCN being of special interest as an emergent new method for capturing relational information. The results show the superiority of Random Forest (RF), but also invite algorithmic work to combine the respective powers of RF and graph methods. Lastly, we consider visualization for analysis and explainability, which is difficult given the size and dynamism of real-world transaction graphs, and we offer a simple prototype capable of navigating the graph and observing model performance on illicit activity over time. With this tutorial and data set, we hope to a) invite feedback in support of our ongoing inquiry, and b) inspire others to work on this societally important challenge.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to extract structured knowledge from unstructured financial text. Although prior studies have explored various extraction methods, there is no universal benchmark or unified evaluation framework for the construction of financial knowledge graphs (KG). We introduce FinReflectKG - EvalBench, a benchmark and evaluation framework for KG extraction from SEC 10-K filings. Building on the agentic and holistic evaluation principles of FinReflectKG - a financial KG linking audited triples to source chunks from S&P 100 filings and supporting single-pass, multi-pass, and reflection-agent-based extraction modes - EvalBench implements a deterministic commit-then-justify judging protocol with explicit bias controls, mitigating position effects, leniency, verbosity and world-knowledge reliance. Each candidate triple is evaluated with binary judgments of faithfulness, precision, and relevance, while comprehensiveness is assessed on a three-level ordinal scale (good, partial, bad) at the chunk level. Our findings suggest that, when equipped with explicit bias controls, LLM-as-Judge protocols provide a reliable and cost-efficient alternative to human annotation, while also enabling structured error analysis. Reflection-based extraction emerges as the superior approach, achieving best performance in comprehensiveness, precision, and relevance, while single-pass extraction maintains the highest faithfulness. By aggregating these complementary dimensions, FinReflectKG - EvalBench enables fine-grained benchmarking and bias-aware evaluation, advancing transparency and governance in financial AI applications.

Real-world tasks consist of multiple inter-dependent subtasks (e.g., a dirty pan needs to be washed before it can be used for cooking). In this work, we aim to model the causal dependencies between such subtasks from instructional videos describing the task. This is a challenging problem since complete information about the world is often inaccessible from videos, which demands robust learning mechanisms to understand the causal structure of events. We present Multimodal Subtask Graph Generation (MSG2), an approach that constructs a Subtask Graph defining the dependency between a task's subtasks relevant to a task from noisy web videos. Graphs generated by our multimodal approach are closer to human-annotated graphs compared to prior approaches. MSG2 further performs the downstream task of next subtask prediction 85% and 30% more accurately than recent video transformer models in the ProceL and CrossTask datasets, respectively.

Late payments and limited working capital propagate liquidity stress across supply chains, especially among small and medium sized enterprises. This paper develops a path enabled clearing framework for invoice backed trade networks and evaluates Byppay, a local compensation procedure based on repeated three party reductions. Unlike cycle restricted netting, which can clear only obligations embedded in directed cycles, Byppay can also reduce obligations along open chains while preserving node net positions on a combined post settlement state composed of the residual invoice graph and a generated settlement instruction layer. The paper contributes by formalizing this framework for invoice networks, defining a comparable post settlement metric system, specifying deterministic benchmark procedures, and assessing them on the same real invoice graphs. The empirical analysis uses the 2021 IMI invoice corpus of 133,191 invoices totaling EUR 19.67 billion. On the annual aggregate, the cycle restricted Netting benchmark achieves EUR 4.13 billion of debt relief, or 20.99%, whereas Byppay achieves EUR 10.60 billion, or 53.87%. In the metric system adopted here, gross obligation reduction and liquidity relief are both measured on post settlement payable mass and are therefore identical for both procedures. The results show that path enabled local compensation reaches a substantially larger reduction fixed point than a cycle restricted benchmark on the same invoice graphs, while also supporting a deployable execution logic compatible with selective disclosure and distributed coordination.

Enterprise property graphs vary widely in schema structure, internal terminology, domain assumptions, governance constraints, and user interaction patterns. A deployment-relevant Text2Cypher benchmark therefore reflects the questions users and agents actually ask of that graph. Creating such a benchmark is difficult because schemas and values are unique, and graph structure changes over time. Each NL-query pair must also be executable, use real graph entities, preserve diversity, and remain balanced across query types and difficulty levels. We present PIPE-Cypher, a local benchmark-generation pipeline that turns a live property graph and optional seed queries from customer questions, analyst logs, or agent tool calls into balanced NL-to-Cypher benchmarks. PIPE-Cypher combines schema profiling, reverse-query grounding, constrained generation, deterministic Cypher governance, execution validation, redaction, diversity controls, and a calibrated local LLM judge. Using local Qwen3.5-9B generation and judging, PIPE-Cypher exports 3,000 accepted FinBench/SNB examples, completes three audited ablation suites, calibrates judge behavior with human labels, and evaluates 11 local downstream models. The resulting benchmark is deliberately discriminative: zero-shot transfer is weak, while a few-shot control shows that schema-specific example banks can help compatible model families. Together, PIPE-Cypher makes Text2Cypher benchmarking a repeatable process that evolves with the graph, its users, and its target workloads.

Powered by advances in LLMs and autonomous agents, deep research has become one of the most widely adopted agentic products. However, most deep research systems write general-purpose reports, which are inadequate for financial deep research. Financial research demands specialized knowledge to analyze historical patterns and forecast upcoming events. Automating financial deep research therefore requires both a layered harness to drive the research agent and a verifiable, point-in-time benchmark that prevents leakage of future information. We present FinanceHarness, a harness that runs finance-oriented tools and practitioner-guided workflows, automating financial deep research end to end: environment and data construction, the agent execution loop, and reward modeling. We further propose FinanceGym, comprising thesis-driven research questions and rubrics that combine pre-cutoff and post-cutoff criteria. Professional expert validation yields an 82% pass rate. With the same open-weight backbone, FinanceHarness improves the overall rubric score from 25.3% to 32.4%, demonstrating the effectiveness of our specialized harness design. However, even pairing FinanceHarness with the most cutting edge LLM (e.g. Opus-5), the FinanceGym score is below 45%, showing that it is a challenging benchmark for financial deep research. Leaderboard is available at: https://financegym.github.io/ and FinanceHarness code is available at: https://github.com/Yijia-Xiao/FinanceHarness.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise for financial applications, yet their suitability for this high-stakes domain remains largely unproven due to inadequacies in existing benchmarks. Existing benchmarks solely rely on score-level evaluation, summarizing performance with a single score that obscures the nuanced understanding of what models truly know and their precise limitations. They also rely on datasets that cover only a narrow subset of financial concepts, while overlooking other essentials for real-world applications. To address these gaps, we introduce FinCDM, the first cognitive diagnosis evaluation framework tailored for financial LLMs, enabling the evaluation of LLMs at the knowledge-skill level, identifying what financial skills and knowledge they have or lack based on their response patterns across skill-tagged tasks, rather than a single aggregated number. We construct CPA-QKA, the first cognitively informed financial evaluation dataset derived from the Certified Public Accountant (CPA) examination, with comprehensive coverage of real-world accounting and financial skills. It is rigorously annotated by domain experts, who author, validate, and annotate questions with high inter-annotator agreement and fine-grained knowledge labels. Our extensive experiments on 30 proprietary, open-source, and domain-specific LLMs show that FinCDM reveals hidden knowledge gaps, identifies under-tested areas such as tax and regulatory reasoning overlooked by traditional benchmarks, and uncovers behavioral clusters among models. FinCDM introduces a new paradigm for financial LLM evaluation by enabling interpretable, skill-aware diagnosis that supports more trustworthy and targeted model development, and all datasets and evaluation scripts will be publicly released to support further research.

This script offers an implementation-oriented introduction to deep learning methods for solving and estimating high-dimensional dynamic stochastic models in economics and finance. Its starting point is the curse of dimensionality: heterogeneous-agent economies, overlapping-generations models with aggregate risk, continuous-time models with occasionally binding constraints, climate-economy models, and macro-finance environments with many assets and frictions generate state and parameter spaces that strain classical tensor-product grid methods. The exposition is organized around four complementary methodologies. Deep Equilibrium Nets embed discrete-time equilibrium conditions into neural-network loss functions. Physics-Informed Neural Networks approximate continuous-time Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman, Kolmogorov forward, and related partial differential equations. Deep surrogate models provide fast, differentiable approximations to expensive structural models, while Gaussian processes add a probabilistic layer that quantifies approximation uncertainty; together they support estimation, sensitivity analysis, and constrained policy design. Gaussian-process-based dynamic programming, combined with active learning and dimension reduction, extends value-function iteration to very large continuous state spaces. Applications span representative-agent and international real business cycle models, overlapping-generations and heterogeneous-agent economies, continuous-time macro-finance, structural estimation by simulated method of moments, and climate economics under uncertainty. Companion notebooks in TensorFlow and PyTorch invite hands-on experimentation. These notes are a deliberately subjective and inevitably incomplete snapshot of a rapidly evolving field, aimed at equipping PhD students and researchers to engage with this frontier hands-on.

The financial industry's growing demand for advanced natural language processing (NLP) capabilities has highlighted the limitations of generalist large language models (LLMs) in handling domain-specific financial tasks. To address this gap, we introduce the LLM Pro Finance Suite, a collection of five instruction-tuned LLMs (ranging from 8B to 70B parameters) specifically designed for financial applications. Our approach focuses on enhancing generalist instruction-tuned models, leveraging their existing strengths in instruction following, reasoning, and toxicity control, while fine-tuning them on a curated, high-quality financial corpus comprising over 50% finance-related data in English, French, and German. We evaluate the LLM Pro Finance Suite on a comprehensive financial benchmark suite, demonstrating consistent improvement over state-of-the-art baselines in finance-oriented tasks and financial translation. Notably, our models maintain the strong general-domain capabilities of their base models, ensuring reliable performance across non-specialized tasks. This dual proficiency, enhanced financial expertise without compromise on general abilities, makes the LLM Pro Finance Suite an ideal drop-in replacement for existing LLMs in financial workflows, offering improved domain-specific performance while preserving overall versatility. We publicly release two 8B-parameters models to foster future research and development in financial NLP applications: https://huggingface.co/collections/DragonLLM/llm-open-finance.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for tabular data generation by modeling textualized feature-value pairs. However, tabular data inherently exhibits sparse feature-level dependencies, where many feature interactions are structurally insignificant. This creates a fundamental mismatch as LLMs' self-attention mechanism inevitably distributes focus across all pairs, diluting attention on critical relationships, particularly in datasets with complex dependencies or semantically ambiguous features. To address this limitation, we propose GraDe (Graph-Guided Dependency Learning), a novel method that explicitly integrates sparse dependency graphs into LLMs' attention mechanism. GraDe employs a lightweight dynamic graph learning module guided by externally extracted functional dependencies, prioritizing key feature interactions while suppressing irrelevant ones. Our experiments across diverse real-world datasets demonstrate that GraDe outperforms existing LLM-based approaches by up to 12% on complex datasets while achieving competitive results with state-of-the-art approaches in synthetic data quality. Our method is minimally intrusive yet effective, offering a practical solution for structure-aware tabular data modeling with LLMs.

Despite accounting for 96.1% of all businesses in Malaysia, access to financing remains one of the most persistent challenges faced by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Newly established businesses are often excluded from formal credit markets as traditional underwriting approaches rely heavily on credit bureau data. This study investigates the potential of bank statement data as an alternative data source for credit assessment to promote financial inclusion in emerging markets. First, we propose a cash flow-based underwriting pipeline where we utilize bank statement data for end-to-end data extraction and machine learning credit scoring. Second, we introduce a novel dataset of 611 loan applicants from a Malaysian consulting firm. Third, we develop and evaluate credit scoring models based on application information and bank transaction-derived features. Empirical results demonstrate that incorporating bank statement features yields substantial improvements, with our best model achieving an AUROC of 0.806 on validation set, representing a 24.6% improvement over models using application information only. Finally, we will release the anonymized bank transaction dataset to facilitate further research on MSME financial inclusion within Malaysia's emerging economy.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

The GDP of a country is modelled as the relative interaction between two agents - working hours, reflecting the social choice of a population, and Total Factor Productivity, reflecting the collective investment in productivity enhancers. It is shown that a Random Forest model can accu- rately predict the GDP from these two factors. The differences in the choices made by Germany and USA are analysed though Gini importance, SHAP plots and partial dependency. It is shown that the differences in the social structure of the countries are reflected in the relative contribution of working hours and productivity to the GDP.

Financial institutions operating under data-residency constraints are restricted to open-weight models small enough to locally host, which trail frontier systems on multi-step quantitative reasoning. On-policy distillation narrows such gaps by supervising a student on its own rollouts, but traditional OPD requires a strong external teacher, and on-policy self-distillation (OPSD) conditions on a full reference solution. We ask how much of that signal is necessary. We present Fin-SD, a localized hindsight self-distillation recipe for multi-step reasoning. Given a problem the student fails, the student itself identifies the first incorrect reasoning step and writes a short critique of that step. We truncate the student's trajectory immediately before the error (aiming to obtain a correct prefix), condition a frozen copy of the student on the same prefix plus the hint, and distill that hint-conditioned teacher into the student over a short rollout under reverse KL. No external model contributes a gradient. We apply Fin-SD to GPT-OSS-20B on a custom multi-step financial reasoning benchmark that requires deriving formula inputs from realistic scenarios via accounting conventions. We find: (i) replacing the critique with a generic-feedback control matches Fin-SD's entire 3.03 pp accuracy gain over the base model on the FinanceReasoning Hard subset, suggesting the gain comes from where supervision is applied, not hint content; (ii) the model writing the hint does not need to be stronger than the model receiving it: hints from same-family GPT-OSS-120B, at roughly 6x the parameters, yield no materially greater benefits than self-written hints; and (iii) Fin-SD matches on-policy self-distillation from full reference solutions on accuracy while generating 9.5% fewer tokens. With Fin-SD, general reasoning on MMLU-Pro and a fourteen-metric compliance audit on FinTrust show no material regression.

The complexity and interconnectivity of entities involved in money laundering demand investigative reasoning over graph-structured data. This paper explores the use of large language models (LLMs) as reasoning engines over localized subgraphs extracted from a financial knowledge graph. We propose a lightweight pipeline that retrieves k-hop neighborhoods around entities of interest, serializes them into structured text, and prompts an LLM via few-shot in-context learning to assess suspiciousness and generate justifications. Using synthetic anti-money laundering (AML) scenarios that reflect common laundering behaviors, we show that LLMs can emulate analyst-style logic, highlight red flags, and provide coherent explanations. While this study is exploratory, it illustrates the potential of LLM-based graph reasoning in AML and lays groundwork for explainable, language-driven financial crime analytics.

Autoregressive decoding limits the efficiency of transformers for Machine Translation (MT). The community proposed specific network architectures and learning-based methods to solve this issue, which are expensive and require changes to the MT model, trading inference speed at the cost of the translation quality. In this paper, we propose to address the problem from the point of view of decoding algorithms, as a less explored but rather compelling direction. We propose to reframe the standard greedy autoregressive decoding of MT with a parallel formulation leveraging Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel fixed-point iteration methods for fast inference. This formulation allows to speed up existing models without training or modifications while retaining translation quality. We present three parallel decoding algorithms and test them on different languages and models showing how the parallelization introduces a speedup up to 38% w.r.t. the standard autoregressive decoding and nearly 2x when scaling the method on parallel resources. Finally, we introduce a decoding dependency graph visualizer (DDGviz) that let us see how the model has learned the conditional dependence between tokens and inspect the decoding procedure.

Terms and conditions for online shopping websites often contain terms that can have significant financial consequences for customers. Despite their impact, there is currently no comprehensive understanding of the types and potential risks associated with unfavorable financial terms. Furthermore, there are no publicly available detection systems or datasets to systematically identify or mitigate these terms. In this paper, we take the first steps toward solving this problem with three key contributions. First, we introduce TermMiner, an automated data collection and topic modeling pipeline to understand the landscape of unfavorable financial terms. Second, we create ShopTC-100K, a dataset of terms and conditions from shopping websites in the Tranco top 100K list, comprising 1.8 million terms from 8,251 websites. Consequently, we develop a taxonomy of 22 types from 4 categories of unfavorable financial terms -- spanning purchase, post-purchase, account termination, and legal aspects. Third, we build TermLens, an automated detector that uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to identify unfavorable financial terms. Fine-tuned on an annotated dataset, TermLens achieves an F1 score of 94.6\% and a false positive rate of 2.3\% using GPT-4o. When applied to shopping websites from the Tranco top 100K, we find that 42.06\% of these sites contain at least one unfavorable financial term, with such terms being more prevalent on less popular websites. Case studies further highlight the financial risks and customer dissatisfaction associated with unfavorable financial terms, as well as the limitations of existing ecosystem defenses.

We placed 100 memory-equipped large language model (LLM) agents in charge of a closed, money-conserving spatial economy on real Pokhara Lakeside geography (earning wages, running businesses, setting prices) and ran this multi-agent simulation for up to 26 simulated weeks, well past the 1-2 weeks typical of agent-society studies. Across 91 validated runs (2.44M agent decisions, 21.5B tokens), the money stops moving, in a specific and measurable way. A 12x tourist demand shock raises business revenue 4.62x (p<0.001), which we decompose exactly into a 1.50x extensive margin (more businesses trading) and a 3.07x intensive margin (more revenue each). Monetary transmission stops there. Wages move 1.03x (p=0.42); 0.3% of 3,981 menu items are ever repriced (p=0.47). A randomized cash transfer (NPR 5,000 to 20 of 100 agents) shows the same pattern from the opposite direction: 96.7% is still held 311 pulses later, marginal propensity to consume 3-4% by two independent measures, indistinguishable from zero. The wealth distribution is consequently near-frozen at the horizon this literature uses (ρ=0.964 over 2 simulated weeks), but not frozen. ρ falls to 0.832 at 12 weeks and 0.752 at 26, a horizon-dependence no short study can see. Matched ablations show which knob actually matters. Swapping the backing LLM moves every outcome we measure (p=0.0039); deleting agents' memory moves none of them detectably. A purely social tool fails 94-97% of the time across two model families, compared with ~96% success on economic tools, with no measurable shift away from it. Every headline number is verified twice, by a live validator and by an offline recomputation that reconciles each agent's wealth against its own signed transaction history, and we release the full run corpus for reanalysis.

Financial tasks are pivotal to global economic stability; however, their execution faces challenges including labor intensive processes, low error tolerance, data fragmentation, and tool limitations. Although large language models (LLMs) have succeeded in various natural language processing tasks and have shown potential in automating workflows through reasoning and contextual understanding, current benchmarks for evaluating LLMs in finance lack sufficient domain-specific data, have simplistic task design, and incomplete evaluation frameworks. To address these gaps, this article presents FinMaster, a comprehensive financial benchmark designed to systematically assess the capabilities of LLM in financial literacy, accounting, auditing, and consulting. Specifically, FinMaster comprises three main modules: i) FinSim, which builds simulators that generate synthetic, privacy-compliant financial data for companies to replicate market dynamics; ii) FinSuite, which provides tasks in core financial domains, spanning 183 tasks of various types and difficulty levels; and iii) FinEval, which develops a unified interface for evaluation. Extensive experiments over state-of-the-art LLMs reveal critical capability gaps in financial reasoning, with accuracy dropping from over 90% on basic tasks to merely 40% on complex scenarios requiring multi-step reasoning. This degradation exhibits the propagation of computational errors, where single-metric calculations initially demonstrating 58% accuracy decreased to 37% in multimetric scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, FinMaster is the first benchmark that covers full-pipeline financial workflows with challenging tasks. We hope that FinMaster can bridge the gap between research and industry practitioners, driving the adoption of LLMs in real-world financial practices to enhance efficiency and accuracy.

Stock market prediction presents considerable challenges for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers operating in complex market environments characterized by noise, non-stationarity, and behavioral dynamics. Traditional forecasting methods, including fundamental analysis and technical indicators, often fail to capture the intricate patterns and cross-sectional dependencies inherent in financial markets. This paper presents an integrated framework combining a node transformer architecture with BERT-based sentiment analysis for stock price forecasting. The proposed model represents the stock market as a graph structure where individual stocks form nodes and edges capture relationships including sectoral affiliations, correlated price movements, and supply chain connections. A fine-tuned BERT model extracts sentiment information from social media posts and combines it with quantitative market features through attention-based fusion mechanisms. The node transformer processes historical market data while capturing both temporal evolution and cross-sectional dependencies among stocks. Experiments conducted on 20 S&P 500 stocks spanning January 1982 to March 2025 demonstrate that the integrated model achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.80% for one-day-ahead predictions, compared to 1.20% for ARIMA and 1.00% for LSTM. The inclusion of sentiment analysis reduces prediction error by 10% overall and 25% during earnings announcements, while the graph-based architecture contributes an additional 15% improvement by capturing inter-stock dependencies. Directional accuracy reaches 65% for one-day forecasts. Statistical validation through paired t-tests confirms the significance of these improvements (p < 0.05 for all comparisons). The model maintains lower error during high-volatility periods, achieving MAPE of 1.50% while baseline models range from 1.60% to 2.10%.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

Unfairness in mortgage lending has created generational inequality among racial and ethnic groups in the US. Many studies address this problem, but most existing work focuses on correlation-based techniques. In our work, we use the framework of counterfactual fairness to train fair machine learning models. We propose a new causal graph for the variables available in the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. We use a matching-based approach instead of the latent variable modeling approach, because the former approach does not rely on any modeling assumptions. Furthermore, matching provides us with counterfactual pairs in which the race variable is isolated. We first demonstrate the unfairness in mortgage approval and interest rates between African-American and non-Hispanic White sub-populations. Then, we show that having balanced data using matching does not guarantee perfect counterfactual fairness of the machine learning models.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) have made significant progress in chart understanding. However, financial charts, characterized by complex temporal structures and domain-specific terminology, remain notably underexplored. We introduce FinChart-Bench, the first benchmark specifically focused on real-world financial charts. FinChart-Bench comprises 1,200 financial chart images collected from 2015 to 2024, each annotated with True/False (TF), Multiple Choice (MC), and Question Answering (QA) questions, totaling 7,016 questions. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 25 state-of-the-art LVLMs on FinChart-Bench. Our evaluation reveals critical insights: (1) the performance gap between open-source and closed-source models is narrowing, (2) performance degradation occurs in upgraded models within families, (3) many models struggle with instruction following, (4) both advanced models show significant limitations in spatial reasoning abilities, and (5) current LVLMs are not reliable enough to serve as automated evaluators. These findings highlight important limitations in current LVLM capabilities for financial chart understanding. The FinChart-Bench dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Tizzzzy/FinChart-Bench.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.

Data-centric curation pipelines frequently rely on model confidence scores to flag and filter noisy or mislabeled training instances. Evaluating this filtering convention on a large-scale consumer lending sample (LendingClub, N = 1,344,936) uncovers an underlying demographic asymmetry: high-income defaulters are disproportionately classified as label noise relative to low-income defaulters (Cramer's V approximately 0.03-0.07). Re-examining this behavior through the lens of equal opportunity [Hardt et al., 2016] reveals a far more severe discrepancy: a 16.86 percentage point gap in true positive rate (recall) between high- and low-income borrowers who ultimately defaulted. Implementing a sequential feature-blinding methodology allows us to isolate the drivers of this disparity across three distinct mechanisms: (1) direct reliance on self-reported applicant income; (2) algorithmic absorption of upstream institutional bias encoded within origination interest rates; and (3) a residual disparity (3.55 percentage points in cross-validation; 2.56 percentage points on a held-out test partition, Z = -4.04, p < 0.0001) that remains even after purging both income and interest rates from the model. Out-of-sample signed SHAP valuations demonstrate that this residual gap is maintained by structural proxies, most notably loan amount and home ownership status. These empirical findings show that simply blinding an algorithm to sensitive attributes fails to ensure fairness when institutional pricing decisions and behavioral proxy variables collectively reconstruct the omitted signals. We outline the practical implications of these findings for auditing data-centric AI workflows within regulated financial institutions.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable general reasoning capabilities, holding significant potential for applications in the financial domain, a field that requires robust and reliable reasoning. It has been demonstrated that distilling high-quality chain-of-thought (CoT) rationales from advanced general reasoning models offers a promising and efficient path to the financial reasoning model. However, existing CoT synthesis methods suffer from shallow CoT sampling, leaving the question of how to construct a well-designed knowledge space for finance reasoning unexplored. In this paper, we present Agentar-DeepFinance-100K, a large-scale financial reasoning dataset characterized by its systematic CoT synthesis optimization. We first introduce a comprehensive CoT synthesis pipeline featuring Multi-perspective Knowledge Extraction (MKE) and Self-Corrective Rewriting (SCR) to generate exhaustive and deep financial reasoning trajectories. Furthermore, a systematic investigation, termed CoT Cube, is conducted to analyze critical factors that influence CoT effectiveness, such as necessity, length and synthesizer, yielding valuable insights for high-quality financial CoT construction. Experiments demonstrate that models trained on our Agentar-DeepFinance-100K achieve significant improvements on financial benchmarks. We publicly release Agentar-DeepFinance-100K , hoping to advance the research in financial reasoning models.

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies between data points. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are good at capturing local patterns for modeling short-term dependencies. However, CNNs cannot learn long-term dependencies due to the limited receptive field. Transformers on the other hand are capable of learning global context and long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose to harness the power of CNNs and Transformers to model both short-term and long-term dependencies within a time series, and forecast if the price would go up, down or remain the same (flat) in the future. In our experiments, we demonstrated the success of the proposed method in comparison to commonly adopted statistical and deep learning methods on forecasting intraday stock price change of S&P 500 constituents.

Dynamic knowledge graphs (DKGs) are popular structures to express different types of connections between objects over time. They can also serve as an efficient mathematical tool to represent information extracted from complex unstructured data sources, such as text or images. Within financial applications, DKGs could be used to detect trends for strategic thematic investing, based on information obtained from financial news articles. In this work, we explore the properties of large language models (LLMs) as dynamic knowledge graph generators, proposing a novel open-source fine-tuned LLM for this purpose, called the Integrated Contextual Knowledge Graph Generator (ICKG). We use ICKG to produce a novel open-source DKG from a corpus of financial news articles, called FinDKG, and we propose an attention-based GNN architecture for analysing it, called KGTransformer. We test the performance of the proposed model on benchmark datasets and FinDKG, demonstrating superior performance on link prediction tasks. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of the KGTransformer on FinDKG for thematic investing, showing it can outperform existing thematic ETFs.

Tabular data, ubiquitous and rich in informational value, is an increasing focus for deep representation learning, yet progress is hindered by studies centered on single tables or isolated databases, which limits model capabilities due to data scale. While collaborative learning approaches such as federated learning, transfer learning, split learning, and tabular foundation models aim to learn from multiple correlated databases, they are challenged by a scarcity of real-world interconnected tabular resources. Current data lakes and corpora largely consist of isolated databases lacking defined inter-database correlations. To overcome this, we introduce WikiDBGraph, a large-scale graph of 100,000 real-world tabular databases from WikiData, interconnected by 17 million edges and characterized by 13 node and 12 edge properties derived from its database schema and data distribution. WikiDBGraph's weighted edges identify both instance- and feature-overlapped databases. Experiments on these newly identified databases confirm that collaborative learning yields superior performance, thereby offering considerable promise for structured foundation model training while also exposing key challenges and future directions for learning from interconnected tabular data.

Pre-trained language models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks and domains. Previous research on financial language models usually employs a generic training scheme to train standard model architectures, without completely leveraging the richness of the financial data. We propose a novel domain specific Financial LANGuage model (FLANG) which uses financial keywords and phrases for better masking, together with span boundary objective and in-filing objective. Additionally, the evaluation benchmarks in the field have been limited. To this end, we contribute the Financial Language Understanding Evaluation (FLUE), an open-source comprehensive suite of benchmarks for the financial domain. These include new benchmarks across 5 NLP tasks in financial domain as well as common benchmarks used in the previous research. Experiments on these benchmarks suggest that our model outperforms those in prior literature on a variety of NLP tasks. Our models, code and benchmark data are publicly available on Github and Huggingface.

As financial institutions and professionals increasingly incorporate Large Language Models (LLMs) into their workflows, substantial barriers, including proprietary data and specialized knowledge, persist between the finance sector and the AI community. These challenges impede the AI community's ability to enhance financial tasks effectively. Acknowledging financial analysis's critical role, we aim to devise financial-specialized LLM-based toolchains and democratize access to them through open-source initiatives, promoting wider AI adoption in financial decision-making. In this paper, we introduce FinRobot, a novel open-source AI agent platform supporting multiple financially specialized AI agents, each powered by LLM. Specifically, the platform consists of four major layers: 1) the Financial AI Agents layer that formulates Financial Chain-of-Thought (CoT) by breaking sophisticated financial problems down into logical sequences; 2) the Financial LLM Algorithms layer dynamically configures appropriate model application strategies for specific tasks; 3) the LLMOps and DataOps layer produces accurate models by applying training/fine-tuning techniques and using task-relevant data; 4) the Multi-source LLM Foundation Models layer that integrates various LLMs and enables the above layers to access them directly. Finally, FinRobot provides hands-on for both professional-grade analysts and laypersons to utilize powerful AI techniques for advanced financial analysis. We open-source FinRobot at https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRobot.

Large language models (LLMs) have become powerful tools for advancing natural language processing applications in the financial industry. However, existing financial LLMs often face challenges such as hallucinations or superficial parameter training, resulting in suboptimal performance, particularly in financial computing and machine reading comprehension (MRC). To address these issues, we propose a novel large language model specifically designed for the Chinese financial domain, named SNFinLLM. SNFinLLM excels in domain-specific tasks such as answering questions, summarizing financial research reports, analyzing sentiment, and executing financial calculations. We then perform the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to enhance the model's proficiency across various financial domains. Specifically, we gather extensive financial data and create a high-quality instruction dataset composed of news articles, professional papers, and research reports of finance domain. Utilizing both domain-specific and general datasets, we proceed with continuous pre-training on an established open-source base model, resulting in SNFinLLM-base. Following this, we engage in supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to bolster the model's capability across multiple financial tasks. Crucially, we employ a straightforward Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) method to better align the model with human preferences. Extensive experiments conducted on finance benchmarks and our evaluation dataset demonstrate that SNFinLLM markedly outperforms other state-of-the-art financial language models. For more details, check out our demo video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYT-65HZwus.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are neural models that leverage the dependency structure in graphical data via message passing among the graph nodes. GNNs have emerged as pivotal architectures in analyzing graph-structured data, and their expansive application in sensitive domains requires a comprehensive understanding of their decision-making processes -- necessitating a framework for GNN explainability. An explanation function for GNNs takes a pre-trained GNN along with a graph as input, to produce a `sufficient statistic' subgraph with respect to the graph label. A main challenge in studying GNN explainability is to provide fidelity measures that evaluate the performance of these explanation functions. This paper studies this foundational challenge, spotlighting the inherent limitations of prevailing fidelity metrics, including Fid_+, Fid_-, and Fid_Delta. Specifically, a formal, information-theoretic definition of explainability is introduced and it is shown that existing metrics often fail to align with this definition across various statistical scenarios. The reason is due to potential distribution shifts when subgraphs are removed in computing these fidelity measures. Subsequently, a robust class of fidelity measures are introduced, and it is shown analytically that they are resilient to distribution shift issues and are applicable in a wide range of scenarios. Extensive empirical analysis on both synthetic and real datasets are provided to illustrate that the proposed metrics are more coherent with gold standard metrics. The source code is available at https://trustai4s-lab.github.io/fidelity.

Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted considerable attention from researchers, who have proposed a wide range of methods based on various backbones. However, the evaluation of the area often exhibits three systemic limitations: 1. Failure to account for the full spectrum of stock movement patterns observed in dynamic financial markets. (Diversity Gap), 2. The absence of unified assessment protocols undermines the validity of cross-study performance comparisons. (Standardization Deficit), and 3. Neglect of critical market structure factors, resulting in inflated performance metrics that lack practical applicability. (Real-World Mismatch). Addressing these limitations, we propose FinTSB, a comprehensive and practical benchmark for financial time series forecasting (FinTSF). To increase the variety, we categorize movement patterns into four specific parts, tokenize and pre-process the data, and assess the data quality based on some sequence characteristics. To eliminate biases due to different evaluation settings, we standardize the metrics across three dimensions and build a user-friendly, lightweight pipeline incorporating methods from various backbones. To accurately simulate real-world trading scenarios and facilitate practical implementation, we extensively model various regulatory constraints, including transaction fees, among others. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on FinTSB, highlighting key insights to guide model selection under varying market conditions. Overall, FinTSB provides researchers with a novel and comprehensive platform for improving and evaluating FinTSF methods. The code is available at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/FinTSB.

Financial report generation tasks range from macro- to micro-economics analysis, also requiring extensive data analysis. Existing LLM models are usually fine-tuned on simple QA tasks and cannot comprehensively analyze real financial scenarios. Given the complexity, financial companies often distribute tasks among departments. Inspired by this, we propose FinTeam, a financial multi-agent collaborative system, with a workflow with four LLM agents: document analyzer, analyst, accountant, and consultant. We train these agents with specific financial expertise using constructed datasets. We evaluate FinTeam on comprehensive financial tasks constructed from real online investment forums, including macroeconomic, industry, and company analysis. The human evaluation shows that by combining agents, the financial reports generate from FinTeam achieved a 62.00% acceptance rate, outperforming baseline models like GPT-4o and Xuanyuan. Additionally, FinTeam's agents demonstrate a 7.43% average improvement on FinCUGE and a 2.06% accuracy boost on FinEval. Project is available at https://github.com/FudanDISC/DISC-FinLLM/.

Graph Foundation Models (GFMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for learning transferable representations across diverse graph domains. Recent advancements in GFMs have been largely dominated by two paradigms: Graph Neural Network and Large Language Model (LLM) based methods. However, these methods often face a fundamental dilemma between training with limited data and a heavy reliance on textual attributes. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) offer a potential alternative, as node features and representations can be naturally organized in a tabular form. However, how to enable TFMs to effectively capture structural information of graphs remains largely unexplored. The key challenge is to learn a graph-to-table alignment mechanism that enables graph structural understanding for TFMs. To address this, we propose GTAlign, a surprisingly simple yet effective Graph-to-Table Alignment framework for text-free Graph Foundation Model. Specifically, we first pretrain a graph encoder that maps diverse graphs into a unified latent space to capture domain-agnostic graph representations. To further bridge the gap between graph topology and the tabular representation space, we propose community-guided continual pre-training, where pseudo-labels derived from graph community are used to construct few-shot prediction episodes. Lastly, we adapt the graph encoder for an unseen target domain and perform in-context inference. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets demonstrate that GTAlign significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on both node and graph classification, offering a simple, effective, and text-free GFM model. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as an important technique for modeling complex time-evolving networks across diverse domains. While transformer-based models have shown promise in capturing long-range dependencies in temporal graph data, they face scalability challenges due to quadratic computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of dynamic graph embedding approaches using transformers and the recently proposed Mamba architecture, a state-space model with linear complexity. We introduce three novel models: TransformerG2G augment with graph convolutional networks, DG-Mamba, and GDG-Mamba with graph isomorphism network edge convolutions. Our experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that Mamba-based models achieve comparable or superior performance to transformer-based approaches in link prediction tasks while offering significant computational efficiency gains on longer sequences. Notably, DG-Mamba variants consistently outperform transformer-based models on datasets with high temporal variability, such as UCI, Bitcoin, and Reality Mining, while maintaining competitive performance on more stable graphs like SBM. We provide insights into the learned temporal dependencies through analysis of attention weights and state matrices, revealing the models' ability to capture complex temporal patterns. By effectively combining state-space models with graph neural networks, our work addresses key limitations of previous approaches and contributes to the growing body of research on efficient temporal graph representation learning. These findings offer promising directions for scaling dynamic graph embedding to larger, more complex real-world networks, potentially enabling new applications in areas such as social network analysis, financial modeling, and biological system dynamics.

Multi-hop reasoning over financial disclosures is often a retrieval problem before it becomes a reasoning or generation problem: relevant facts are dispersed across sections, filings, companies, and years, and LLMs often expend excessive tokens navigating noisy context. Without precise Knowledge Graph (KG)-guided selection of relevant context, even strong reasoning models either fail to answer or consume excessive tokens, whereas KG-linked evidence enables models to focus their reasoning on composing already retrieved facts. We present FinReflectKG - MultiHop, a benchmark built on FinReflectKG, a temporally indexed financial KG that links audited triples to source chunks from S&P 100 filings (2022-2024). Mining frequent 2-3 hop subgraph patterns across sectors (via GICS taxonomy), we generate financial analyst style questions with exact supporting evidence from the KG. A two-phase pipeline first creates QA pairs via pattern-specific prompts, followed by a multi-criteria quality control evaluation to ensure QA validity. We then evaluate three controlled retrieval scenarios: (S1) precise KG-linked paths; (S2) text-only page windows centered on relevant text spans; and (S3) relevant page windows with randomizations and distractors. Across both reasoning and non-reasoning models, KG-guided precise retrieval yields substantial gains on the FinReflectKG - MultiHop QA benchmark dataset, boosting correctness scores by approximately 24 percent while reducing token utilization by approximately 84.5 percent compared to the page window setting, which reflects the traditional vector retrieval paradigm. Spanning intra-document, inter-year, and cross-company scopes, our work underscores the pivotal role of knowledge graphs in efficiently connecting evidence for multi-hop financial QA. We also release a curated subset of the benchmark (555 QA Pairs) to catalyze further research.

Accurately forecasting the impact of macroeconomic events is critical for investors and policymakers. Salient events like monetary policy decisions and employment reports often trigger market movements by shaping expectations of economic growth and risk, thereby establishing causal relationships between events and market behavior. Existing forecasting methods typically focus either on textual analysis or time-series modeling, but fail to capture the multi-modal nature of financial markets and the causal relationship between events and price movements. To address these gaps, we propose CAMEF (Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting), a multi-modality framework that effectively integrates textual and time-series data with a causal learning mechanism and an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation technique for causal-enhanced financial forecasting. Our contributions include: (1) a multi-modal framework that captures causal relationships between policy texts and historical price data; (2) a new financial dataset with six types of macroeconomic releases from 2008 to April 2024, and high-frequency real trading data for five key U.S. financial assets; and (3) an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation strategy. We compare CAMEF to state-of-the-art transformer-based time-series and multi-modal baselines, and perform ablation studies to validate the effectiveness of the causal learning mechanism and event types.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Transformer-based models dominate NLP tasks like sentiment analysis, machine translation, and claim verification. However, their massive computational demands and lack of interpretability pose challenges for real-world applications requiring efficiency and transparency. In this work, we explore Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Hyperbolic Graph Neural Networks (HGNNs) as lightweight yet effective alternatives for Environmental Claim Detection, reframing it as a graph classification problem. We construct dependency parsing graphs to explicitly model syntactic structures, using simple word embeddings (word2vec) for node features with dependency relations encoded as edge features. Our results demonstrate that these graph-based models achieve comparable or superior performance to state-of-the-art transformers while using 30x fewer parameters. This efficiency highlights the potential of structured, interpretable, and computationally efficient graph-based approaches.

This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio tail losses through a latent factor structure and translated into a stressed CET1 ratio, jointly accounting for capital depletion and risk-weighted asset dynamics. Reverse stress testing is formulated as a constrained maximum likelihood problem over the scenario space. This yields a geopolitical point reverse stress test, or design point, defined as the most probable scenario that breaches a prescribed capital adequacy constraint under a reference distribution. The framework further characterises neighbourhoods and near optimal sets of reverse stress scenarios, allowing for sensitivity analysis and governance oriented interpretation. The approach is compatible with internal rating based models and supports implementation at the exposure or sector level.

Attention mechanisms have been widely used to capture long-range dependencies among nodes in Graph Transformers. Bottlenecked by the quadratic computational cost, attention mechanisms fail to scale in large graphs. Recent improvements in computational efficiency are mainly achieved by attention sparsification with random or heuristic-based graph subsampling, which falls short in data-dependent context reasoning. State space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness and efficiency in modeling long-range dependencies in sequential data. However, adapting SSMs to non-sequential graph data presents a notable challenge. In this work, we introduce Graph-Mamba, the first attempt to enhance long-range context modeling in graph networks by integrating a Mamba block with the input-dependent node selection mechanism. Specifically, we formulate graph-centric node prioritization and permutation strategies to enhance context-aware reasoning, leading to a substantial improvement in predictive performance. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets demonstrate that Graph-Mamba outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long-range graph prediction tasks, with a fraction of the computational cost in both FLOPs and GPU memory consumption. The code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bowang-lab/Graph-Mamba.

Machine Learning models in finance are highly susceptible to model drift, where predictive performance declines as data distributions shift. This issue is especially acute in developing economies such as those in Central Asia and the Caucasus - including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan - where frequent and unpredictable macroeconomics shocks destabilize financial data. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies to examine drift mitigation methods on financial datasets from these regions. We investigate the use of synthetic outliers, a largely unexplored approach, to improve model stability against unforeseen shocks. To evaluate effectiveness, we introduce a two-level framework that measures both the extent of performance degradation and the severity of shocks. Our experiments on macroeconomic tabular datasets show that adding a small proportion of synthetic outliers generally improves stability compared to baseline models, though the optimal amount varies by dataset and model

A number of datasets for Relation Extraction (RE) have been created to aide downstream tasks such as information retrieval, semantic search, question answering and textual entailment. However, these datasets fail to capture financial-domain specific challenges since most of these datasets are compiled using general knowledge sources such as Wikipedia, web-based text and news articles, hindering real-life progress and adoption within the financial world. To address this limitation, we propose REFinD, the first large-scale annotated dataset of relations, with sim29K instances and 22 relations amongst 8 types of entity pairs, generated entirely over financial documents. We also provide an empirical evaluation with various state-of-the-art models as benchmarks for the RE task and highlight the challenges posed by our dataset. We observed that various state-of-the-art deep learning models struggle with numeric inference, relational and directional ambiguity.

The problem of career trajectory prediction (CTP) aims to predict one's future employer or job position. While several CTP methods have been developed for this problem, we posit that none of these methods (1) jointly considers the mutual ternary dependency between three key units (i.e., user, position, and company) of a career and (2) captures the characteristic shifts of key units in career over time, leading to an inaccurate understanding of the job movement patterns in the labor market. To address the above challenges, we propose a novel solution, named as CAPER, that solves the challenges via sophisticated temporal knowledge graph (TKG) modeling. It enables the utilization of a graph-structured knowledge base with rich expressiveness, effectively preserving the changes in job movement patterns. Furthermore, we devise an extrapolated career reasoning task on TKG for a realistic evaluation. The experiments on a real-world career trajectory dataset demonstrate that CAPER consistently and significantly outperforms four baselines, two recent TKG reasoning methods, and five state-of-the-art CTP methods in predicting one's future companies and positions--i.e., on average, yielding 6.80% and 34.58% more accurate predictions, respectively. The codebase of CAPER is available at https://github.com/Bigdasgit/CAPER.

Financial prediction is a complex and challenging task of time series analysis and signal processing, expected to model both short-term fluctuations and long-term temporal dependencies. Transformers have remarkable success mostly in natural language processing using attention mechanism, which also influenced the time series community. The ability to capture both short and long-range dependencies helps to understand the financial market and to recognize price patterns, leading to successful applications of Transformers in stock prediction. Although, the previous research predominantly focuses on individual features and singular predictions, that limits the model's ability to understand broader market trends. In reality, within sectors such as finance and technology, companies belonging to the same industry often exhibit correlated stock price movements. In this paper, we develop a novel neural network architecture by integrating Time2Vec with the Encoder of the Transformer model. Based on the study of different markets, we propose a novel correlation feature selection method. Through a comprehensive fine-tuning of multiple hyperparameters, we conduct a comparative analysis of our results against benchmark models. We conclude that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art encoding methods such as positional encoding, and we also conclude that selecting correlation features enhance the accuracy of predicting multiple stock prices.

With the significant advancements in cognitive intelligence driven by LLMs, autonomous agent systems have attracted extensive attention. Despite this growing interest, the development of stable and efficient agent systems poses substantial practical challenges. In this paper, we introduce FinVerse, a meticulously crafted agent system designed for a broad range of financial topics. FinVerse integrates over 600 financial APIs, enabling access to more accurate and extensive financial information compared to generalist agents. To enhance financial information processing capabilities, FinVerse is equipped with an embedded code interpreter, enabling the execution of complex data analysis tasks with precision and efficiency. Our work includes an empirical comparison of several LLMs in driving FinVerse. Specifically, we propose our own scheme for training LLMs using SFT to optimize LLM performance within FinVerse. Recognizing the scarcity of specialized datasets to build LLMs for agents, we have constructed a dataset and plan to make it open-source, providing a valuable resource for peer application developers. The demo video has been released on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk8L9_Wv7J4

Graph-structured data pervades domains such as social networks, biological systems, knowledge graphs, and recommender systems. While foundation models have transformed natural language processing, vision, and multimodal learning through large-scale pretraining and generalization, extending these capabilities to graphs -- characterized by non-Euclidean structures and complex relational semantics -- poses unique challenges and opens new opportunities. To this end, Graph Foundation Models (GFMs) aim to bring scalable, general-purpose intelligence to structured data, enabling broad transfer across graph-centric tasks and domains. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of GFMs, unifying diverse efforts under a modular framework comprising three key components: backbone architectures, pretraining strategies, and adaptation mechanisms. We categorize GFMs by their generalization scope -- universal, task-specific, and domain-specific -- and review representative methods, key innovations, and theoretical insights within each category. Beyond methodology, we examine theoretical foundations including transferability and emergent capabilities, and highlight key challenges such as structural alignment, heterogeneity, scalability, and evaluation. Positioned at the intersection of graph learning and general-purpose AI, GFMs are poised to become foundational infrastructure for open-ended reasoning over structured data. This survey consolidates current progress and outlines future directions to guide research in this rapidly evolving field. Resources are available at https://github.com/Zehong-Wang/Awesome-Foundation-Models-on-Graphs.

Sequential dependencies present a fundamental bottleneck in deploying large-scale autoregressive models, particularly for real-time applications. While traditional optimization approaches like pruning and quantization often compromise model quality, recent advances in generation-refinement frameworks demonstrate that this trade-off can be significantly mitigated. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of generation-refinement frameworks, analyzing methods across autoregressive sequence tasks. We categorize methods based on their generation strategies (from simple n-gram prediction to sophisticated draft models) and refinement mechanisms (including single-pass verification and iterative approaches). Through systematic analysis of both algorithmic innovations and system-level implementations, we examine deployment strategies across computing environments and explore applications spanning text, images, and speech generation. This systematic examination of both theoretical frameworks and practical implementations provides a foundation for future research in efficient autoregressive decoding.

Graph neural networks have moved from a niche representation-learning technique to the default model class wherever data carry relational structure. The interesting question is no longer whether message passing helps on a given dataset, but where graph structure earns its computational cost and where it does not. This survey organises the field around a single design space, derives the spectral and spatial formulations from shared first principles, and connects expressive power to the Weisfeiler-Leman hierarchy with explicit statements of what current architectures can and cannot separate. Against that methodological backbone we examine twelve application domains, among them recommendation and social networks, knowledge graphs and language-model integration, drug discovery and molecular property learning, healthcare and neuroscience, computer vision, traffic and urban computing, power and renewable-energy systems, wireless and sixth-generation networks, fraud and cybersecurity, industrial prognostics, materials science, and climate modelling. For each domain we specify the graph-construction choices and their costs, identify which architecture families dominate and why, and separate reported gains from artefacts of weak baselines or favourable splits. A cross-domain comparison exposes recurring patterns: heterophily and scale undercut the same models almost everywhere, temporal graphs remain harder than their static counterparts, and the architectures that top public leaderboards are seldom the ones that reach deployment. We treat over-smoothing, over-squashing, robustness, distribution shift, fairness, and explainability not as a closing checklist but as the constraints that decide adoption.

Most graph neural network models learn embeddings of nodes in static attributed graphs for predictive analysis. Recent attempts have been made to learn temporal proximity of the nodes. We find that real dynamic attributed graphs exhibit complex co-evolution of node attributes and graph structure. Learning node embeddings for forecasting change of node attributes and birth and death of links over time remains an open problem. In this work, we present a novel framework called CoEvoGNN for modeling dynamic attributed graph sequence. It preserves the impact of earlier graphs on the current graph by embedding generation through the sequence. It has a temporal self-attention mechanism to model long-range dependencies in the evolution. Moreover, CoEvoGNN optimizes model parameters jointly on two dynamic tasks, attribute inference and link prediction over time. So the model can capture the co-evolutionary patterns of attribute change and link formation. This framework can adapt to any graph neural algorithms so we implemented and investigated three methods based on it: CoEvoGCN, CoEvoGAT, and CoEvoSAGE. Experiments demonstrate the framework (and its methods) outperform strong baselines on predicting an entire unseen graph snapshot of personal attributes and interpersonal links in dynamic social graphs and financial graphs.

In the Venture Capital(VC) industry, predicting the success of startups is challenging due to limited financial data and the need for subjective revenue forecasts. Previous methods based on time series analysis or deep learning often fall short as they fail to incorporate crucial inter-company relationships such as competition and collaboration. Regarding the issues, we propose a novel approach using GrahphRAG augmented time series model. With GraphRAG, time series predictive methods are enhanced by integrating these vital relationships into the analysis framework, allowing for a more dynamic understanding of the startup ecosystem in venture capital. Our experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first application work of GraphRAG.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where dependent assets are mispriced, allowing for purchasing (or selling) a certain outcome for less than (or more than) 1, guaranteeing profit. This phenomenon, known as arbitrage, could enable sophisticated participants to exploit such inconsistencies. In this paper, we conduct an empirical arbitrage analysis on Polymarket data to answer three key questions: (Q1) What conditions give rise to arbitrage (Q2) Does arbitrage actually occur on Polymarket and (Q3) Has anyone exploited these opportunities. A major challenge in analyzing arbitrage between related markets lies in the scalability of comparisons across a large number of markets and conditions, with a naive analysis requiring O(2^{n+m}) comparisons. To overcome this, we employ a heuristic-driven reduction strategy based on timeliness, topical similarity, and combinatorial relationships, further validated by expert input. Our study reveals two distinct forms of arbitrage on Polymarket: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage, which occurs within a single market or condition, and Combinatorial Arbitrage, which spans across multiple markets. We use on-chain historical order book data to analyze when these types of arbitrage opportunities have existed, and when they have been executed by users. We find a realized estimate of 40 million USD of profit extracted.

AI agents are increasingly deployed for professional investment research, yet no benchmark captures the complexity of the full investor workflow. Existing benchmarks mainly target financial data extraction, a narrow slice that current models have largely saturated, while reference-based metrics and generic LLM-as-a-judge scoring fall short on the open-ended, long-form answers that real analyst queries demand. We introduce FrontierFinance, a fully open benchmark of 220 expert-crafted queries and 11,543 source-attributed rubrics spanning six crucial use cases across the full investor workflow. FrontierFinance is both broader and harder than existing public finance benchmarks. Evaluating frontier models and agent systems under a common harness restricted to publicly available data, we find that the tool harness, not the model alone, strongly shapes quality and efficiency; that Samaya's in-house system leads at 56.0%, ahead of the strongest frontier model (Claude Fable 5, 49.2%) at roughly 2.2x lower cost; and that the best open-weight model (Kimi K3, 46.4%) nearly matches the best proprietary model at 4.5x lower cost. Screening & Discovery and Sector, Industry & Macro remain the hardest use cases across all systems, where even the best systems reach only 33% and 39%. We make the dataset and grading code publicly available.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Hallucination remains a critical challenge for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in finance. Accurate extraction and precise calculation from tabular data are essential for reliable financial analysis, since even minor numerical errors can undermine decision-making and regulatory compliance. Financial applications have unique requirements, often relying on context-dependent, numerical, and proprietary tabular data that existing hallucination benchmarks rarely capture. In this study, we develop a rigorous and scalable framework for evaluating intrinsic hallucinations in financial LLMs, conceptualized as a context-aware masked span prediction task over real-world financial documents. Our main contributions are: (1) a novel, automated dataset creation paradigm using a masking strategy; (2) a new hallucination evaluation dataset derived from S&P 500 annual reports; and (3) a comprehensive evaluation of intrinsic hallucination patterns in state-of-the-art LLMs on financial tabular data. Our work provides a robust methodology for in-house LLM evaluation and serves as a critical step toward building more trustworthy and reliable financial Generative AI systems.

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

Search has emerged as core infrastructure for LLM-based agents and is widely viewed as critical on the path toward more general intelligence. Finance is a particularly demanding proving ground: analysts routinely conduct complex, multi-step searches over time-sensitive, domain-specific data, making it ideal for assessing both search proficiency and knowledge-grounded reasoning. Yet no existing open financial datasets evaluate data searching capability of end-to-end agents, largely because constructing realistic, complicated tasks requires deep financial expertise and time-sensitive data is hard to evaluate. We present FinSearchComp, the first fully open-source agent benchmark for realistic, open-domain financial search and reasoning. FinSearchComp comprises three tasks -- Time-Sensitive Data Fetching, Simple Historical Lookup, and Complex Historical Investigation -- closely reproduce real-world financial analyst workflows. To ensure difficulty and reliability, we engage 70 professional financial experts for annotation and implement a rigorous multi-stage quality-assurance pipeline. The benchmark includes 635 questions spanning global and Greater China markets, and we evaluate 21 models (products) on it. Grok 4 (web) tops the global subset, approaching expert-level accuracy. DouBao (web) leads on the Greater China subset. Experimental analyses show that equipping agents with web search and financial plugins substantially improves results on FinSearchComp, and the country origin of models and tools impact performance significantly.By aligning with realistic analyst tasks and providing end-to-end evaluation, FinSearchComp offers a professional, high-difficulty testbed for complex financial search and reasoning.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is crucial for decision-making to precisely forecast the future values/trends, based on the complex relationships identified from historical observations of multiple sequences. Recently, Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have gradually become the theme of MTSF model as their powerful capability in mining spatial-temporal dependencies, but almost of them heavily rely on the assumption of historical data integrity. In reality, due to factors such as data collector failures and time-consuming repairment, it is extremely challenging to collect the whole historical observations without missing any variable. In this case, STGNNs can only utilize a subset of normal variables and easily suffer from the incorrect spatial-temporal dependency modeling issue, resulting in the degradation of their forecasting performance. To address the problem, in this paper, we propose a novel Graph Interpolation Attention Recursive Network (named GinAR) to precisely model the spatial-temporal dependencies over the limited collected data for forecasting. In GinAR, it consists of two key components, that is, interpolation attention and adaptive graph convolution to take place of the fully connected layer of simple recursive units, and thus are capable of recovering all missing variables and reconstructing the correct spatial-temporal dependencies for recursively modeling of multivariate time series data, respectively. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world datasets demonstrate that GinAR outperforms 11 SOTA baselines, and even when 90% of variables are missing, it can still accurately predict the future values of all variables.

Time series forecasting with exogenous variables is a critical emerging paradigm that presents unique challenges in modeling dependencies between variables. Traditional models often struggle to differentiate between endogenous and exogenous variables, leading to inefficiencies and overfitting. In this paper, we introduce CrossLinear, a novel Linear-based forecasting model that addresses these challenges by incorporating a plug-and-play cross-correlation embedding module. This lightweight module captures the dependencies between variables with minimal computational cost and seamlessly integrates into existing neural networks. Specifically, it captures time-invariant and direct variable dependencies while disregarding time-varying or indirect dependencies, thereby mitigating the risk of overfitting in dependency modeling and contributing to consistent performance improvements. Furthermore, CrossLinear employs patch-wise processing and a global linear head to effectively capture both short-term and long-term temporal dependencies, further improving its forecasting precision. Extensive experiments on 12 real-world datasets demonstrate that CrossLinear achieves superior performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks. The ablation study underscores the effectiveness of the cross-correlation embedding module. Additionally, the generalizability of this module makes it a valuable plug-in for various forecasting tasks across different domains. Codes are available at https://github.com/mumiao2000/CrossLinear.

Autoregressive models excel in modeling sequential dependencies by enforcing causal constraints, yet they struggle to capture complex bidirectional patterns due to their unidirectional nature. In contrast, mask-based models leverage bidirectional context, enabling richer dependency modeling. However, they often assume token independence during prediction, which undermines the modeling of sequential dependencies. Additionally, the corruption of sequences through masking or absorption can introduce unnatural distortions, complicating the learning process. To address these issues, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Diffusion (BAD), a novel approach that unifies the strengths of autoregressive and mask-based generative models. BAD utilizes a permutation-based corruption technique that preserves the natural sequence structure while enforcing causal dependencies through randomized ordering, enabling the effective capture of both sequential and bidirectional relationships. Comprehensive experiments show that BAD outperforms autoregressive and mask-based models in text-to-motion generation, suggesting a novel pre-training strategy for sequence modeling. The codebase for BAD is available on https://github.com/RohollahHS/BAD.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

We introduce FIRE, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate both the theoretical financial knowledge of LLMs and their ability to handle practical business scenarios. For theoretical assessment, we curate a diverse set of examination questions drawn from widely recognized financial qualification exams, enabling evaluation of LLMs deep understanding and application of financial knowledge. In addition, to assess the practical value of LLMs in real-world financial tasks, we propose a systematic evaluation matrix that categorizes complex financial domains and ensures coverage of essential subdomains and business activities. Based on this evaluation matrix, we collect 3,000 financial scenario questions, consisting of closed-form decision questions with reference answers and open-ended questions evaluated by predefined rubrics. We conduct comprehensive evaluations of state-of-the-art LLMs on the FIRE benchmark, including XuanYuan 4.0, our latest financial-domain model, as a strong in-domain baseline. These results enable a systematic analysis of the capability boundaries of current LLMs in financial applications. We publicly release the benchmark questions and evaluation code to facilitate future research.

Deep Learning is evolving fast and integrates into various domains. Finance is a challenging field for deep learning, especially in the case of interpretable artificial intelligence (AI). Although classical approaches perform very well with natural language processing, computer vision, and forecasting, they are not perfect for the financial world, in which specialists use different metrics to evaluate model performance. We first introduce financially grounded loss functions derived from key quantitative finance metrics, including the Sharpe ratio, Profit-and-Loss (PnL), and Maximum Draw down. Additionally, we propose turnover regularization, a method that inherently constrains the turnover of generated positions within predefined limits. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed loss functions, in conjunction with turnover regularization, outperform the traditional mean squared error loss for return prediction tasks when evaluated using algorithmic trading metrics. The study shows that financially grounded metrics enhance predictive performance in trading strategies and portfolio optimization.