Daily Papers

Contact-rich manipulation remains a major challenge in robotics. Optical tactile sensors like GelSight Mini offer a low-cost solution for contact sensing by capturing soft-body deformations of the silicone gel. However, accurately inferring shear and normal force distributions from these gel deformations has yet to be fully addressed. In this work, we propose a machine learning approach using a U-net architecture to predict force distributions directly from the sensor's raw images. Our model, trained on force distributions inferred from fea, demonstrates promising accuracy in predicting normal and shear force distributions for the commercially available GelSight Mini sensor. It also shows potential for generalization across indenters, sensors of the same type, and for enabling real-time application. The codebase, dataset and models are open-sourced and available at https://feats-ai.github.io .

Biological tissues exhibit complex behaviors with their dynamics often resembling inert soft matter such as liquids, polymers, colloids, and liquid crystals. These analogies enable physics-based approaches for investigations of emergent behaviors in biological processes. A well-studied case is the spreading of cellular aggregates on solid surfaces, where they display dynamics similar to viscous droplets. In vivo, however, cells and tissues are in a confined environment with varying geometries and mechanical properties to which they need to adapt. In this work, we compressed cellular aggregates between two solid surfaces and studied their dynamics using microscopy, and computer simulations. The confined cellular aggregates transitioned from compressed spheres into dynamic living capillary bridges exhibiting bridge thinning and a convex-to-concave meniscus curvature transition. We found that the stability of the bridge is determined by the interplay between cell growth and cell spreading on the confining surfaces. This interaction leads to bridge rupture at a critical length scale determined by the distance between the plates. The force distributions, formation and stability regimes of the living capillary bridges were characterized with full 3D computer simulations that included cell division, migration and growth dynamics, directly showing how mechanical principles govern the behavior of the living bridges; cellular aggregates display jamming and stiffening analogously to granular matter, and cell division along the long axis enhances thinning. Based on our results, we propose a new class of active soft matter behavior, where cellular aggregates exhibit liquid-like adaptation to confinement, but with self-organized rupturing driven by biological activity.

For both humans and robots, the sense of touch, known as tactile sensing, is critical for performing contact-rich manipulation tasks. Three key challenges in robotic tactile sensing are 1) interpreting sensor signals, 2) generating sensor signals in novel scenarios, and 3) learning sensor-based policies. For visuotactile sensors, interpretation has been facilitated by their close relationship with vision sensors (e.g., RGB cameras). However, generation is still difficult, as visuotactile sensors typically involve contact, deformation, illumination, and imaging, all of which are expensive to simulate; in turn, policy learning has been challenging, as simulation cannot be leveraged for large-scale data collection. We present TacSL (taxel), a library for GPU-based visuotactile sensor simulation and learning. TacSL can be used to simulate visuotactile images and extract contact-force distributions over 200times faster than the prior state-of-the-art, all within the widely-used Isaac Gym simulator. Furthermore, TacSL provides a learning toolkit containing multiple sensor models, contact-intensive training environments, and online/offline algorithms that can facilitate policy learning for sim-to-real applications. On the algorithmic side, we introduce a novel online reinforcement-learning algorithm called asymmetric actor-critic distillation (\sysName), designed to effectively and efficiently learn tactile-based policies in simulation that can transfer to the real world. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our library and algorithms by evaluating the benefits of distillation and multimodal sensing for contact-rich manip ulation tasks, and most critically, performing sim-to-real transfer. Supplementary videos and results are at https://iakinola23.github.io/tacsl/.

Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk

We introduce JEDI, a test-time adaptation method that enhances subject separation and compositional alignment in diffusion models without requiring retraining or external supervision. JEDI operates by minimizing semantic entanglement in attention maps using a novel Jensen-Shannon divergence based objective. To improve efficiency, we leverage adversarial optimization, reducing the number of updating steps required. JEDI is model-agnostic and applicable to architectures such as Stable Diffusion 1.5 and 3.5, consistently improving prompt alignment and disentanglement in complex scenes. Additionally, JEDI provides a lightweight, CLIP-free disentanglement score derived from internal attention distributions, offering a principled benchmark for compositional alignment under test-time conditions. We will publicly release the implementation of our method.

Machine Learning Force Fields (MLFFs) are a promising alternative to expensive ab initio quantum mechanical molecular simulations. Given the diversity of chemical spaces that are of interest and the cost of generating new data, it is important to understand how MLFFs generalize beyond their training distributions. In order to characterize and better understand distribution shifts in MLFFs, we conduct diagnostic experiments on chemical datasets, revealing common shifts that pose significant challenges, even for large foundation models trained on extensive data. Based on these observations, we hypothesize that current supervised training methods inadequately regularize MLFFs, resulting in overfitting and learning poor representations of out-of-distribution systems. We then propose two new methods as initial steps for mitigating distribution shifts for MLFFs. Our methods focus on test-time refinement strategies that incur minimal computational cost and do not use expensive ab initio reference labels. The first strategy, based on spectral graph theory, modifies the edges of test graphs to align with graph structures seen during training. Our second strategy improves representations for out-of-distribution systems at test-time by taking gradient steps using an auxiliary objective, such as a cheap physical prior. Our test-time refinement strategies significantly reduce errors on out-of-distribution systems, suggesting that MLFFs are capable of and can move towards modeling diverse chemical spaces, but are not being effectively trained to do so. Our experiments establish clear benchmarks for evaluating the generalization capabilities of the next generation of MLFFs. Our code is available at https://tkreiman.github.io/projects/mlff_distribution_shifts/.

Viscous stains, characterized by high viscosity and complex rheological properties, remain a major challenge for robotic surface cleaning. Conventional wiping often spreads the stain, while scrubbing provides stronger friction but risks damaging the surface. In this paper, we propose Push-Wiper, a framework that reformulates viscous stain cleaning as an aggregation problem. Push-Wiper employs a sponge to progressively gather stains through segmented pushing trajectories, followed by a post-processing phase that detaches the aggregated material and enables sponge self-cleaning. We adopt a stepwise strategy for stain gathering and leverage Diffusion Policy to generate adaptive pushing action sequences. These sequences are executed through our Arbitrary Surface Pose Interpolator (ASPI) and a hybrid force-position controller, allowing the method to generalize to stains with diverse spatial distributions. Push-Wiper achieves a cleaning score (CS), defined as the percentage of stain area removed, up to 130% higher than baseline methods. Without additional training, Push-Wiper also transfers in a zero-shot manner to solid residues, liquid spills, unseen viscous stains, and curved surfaces with varying geometries. Our experiments demonstrate the cleaning effectiveness of Push-Wiper and its strong generalization ability. The project website is available at https://push-wiper.github.io/.

In this paper, we address force-aware control and force distribution in robotic platforms with multi-fingered hands. Given a target goal and force estimates from tactile sensors, we design a controller that adapts the motion of the torso, arm, wrist, and fingers, redistributing forces to maintain stable contact with objects of varying mass distribution or unstable contacts. To estimate forces, we collect a dataset of tactile signals and ground-truth force measurements using five Xela magnetic sensors interacting with indenters, and train force estimators. We then introduce a model-based control scheme that minimizes the distance between the Center of Pressure (CoP) and the centroid of the fingertips contact polygon. Since our method relies on estimated forces rather than raw tactile signals, it has the potential to be applied to any sensor capable of force estimation. We validate our framework on a balancing task with five objects, achieving a 82.7% success rate, and further evaluate it in multi-object scenarios, achieving 80% accuracy. Code and data can be found here https://github.com/hsp-iit/multifingered-force-aware-control.

Interlocking brick assemblies provide a standardized yet challenging testbed for contact-rich and long-horizon robotic manipulation, but existing rigid-body simulators do not faithfully capture snap-fit mechanics. We present BrickSim, the first real-time physics-based simulator for interlocking brick assemblies. BrickSim introduces a compact force-based mechanics model for snap-fit connections and solves the resulting internal force distribution using a structured convex quadratic program. Combined with a hybrid architecture that delegates rigid-body dynamics to the underlying physics engine while handling snap-fit mechanics separately, BrickSim enables real-time, high-fidelity simulation of assembly, disassembly, and structural collapse. On 150 real-world assemblies, BrickSim achieves 100% accuracy in static stability prediction with an average solve time of 5 ms. In dynamic drop tests, it also faithfully reproduces real-world structural collapse, precisely mirroring both the occurrence of breakage and the specific breakage locations. Built on Isaac Sim, BrickSim further supports seamless integration with a wide variety of robots and existing pipelines. We demonstrate robotic construction of brick assemblies using BrickSim, highlighting its potential as a foundation for research in dexterous, long-horizon robotic manipulation. BrickSim is open-source, and the code is available at https://github.com/intelligent-control-lab/BrickSim.

Boltzmann generators approach the sampling problem in many-body physics by combining a normalizing flow and a statistical reweighting method to generate samples in thermodynamic equilibrium. The equilibrium distribution is usually defined by an energy function and a thermodynamic state. Here we propose temperature-steerable flows (TSF) which are able to generate a family of probability densities parametrized by a choosable temperature parameter. TSFs can be embedded in generalized ensemble sampling frameworks to sample a physical system across multiple thermodynamic states.

The relationship between balance laws and the Principle of Virtual Work as well as the structure of contact interactions in continua remain foundational issues in Mechanics. In this work, we revisit these issues within the distributional framework emphasized by Paul Germain. We show that while the Principle of Virtual Work implies balance of forces and moments for nth-gradient continua, balance laws alone do not suffice to characterize equilibrium for n geq 2. We then reexamine Noll's classical theorem asserting that surface contact forces depend solely on the unit normal to the surface and identify the precise role of his additional assumptions, namely the absence of edge and wedge contact interactions and the boundedness of the surface contact density on the space of oriented surfaces. We demonstrate that these hypotheses fail for general higher-gradient continua. Consequently, the presence of curvature-dependent surface contact forces in such materials does not conflict with Noll's theorem and refutes his claim of their nonexistence.

Modern reasoning models continue generating long after the answer is already determined. Across five model configurations, two families, and three benchmarks, we find that 52--88\% of chain-of-thought tokens are produced after the answer is recoverable from a partial prefix. This post-commitment generation reveals a structural phenomenon: the detection--extraction gap. Free continuations from early prefixes recover the correct answer even at 10\% of the trace, while forced extraction fails on 42\% of these cases. The answer is recoverable from the model state, yet prompt-conditioned decoding fails to extract it. We formalize this mismatch via a total-variation bound between free and forced continuation distributions, yielding quantitative estimates of suffix-induced shift. Exploiting this asymmetry, we propose Black-box Adaptive Early Exit (), which uses free continuations for both detection and extraction, truncating 70--78\% of serial generation while improving accuracy by 1--5\,pp across all models. For thinking-mode models, early exit prevents post-commitment overwriting, yielding gains of up to 5.8\,pp; a cost-optimized variant achieves 68--73\% reduction at a median of 9 API calls. Code is available at https://github.com/EdWangLoDaSc/know2say.

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

Normalizing flows are a promising tool for modeling probability distributions in physical systems. While state-of-the-art flows accurately approximate distributions and energies, applications in physics additionally require smooth energies to compute forces and higher-order derivatives. Furthermore, such densities are often defined on non-trivial topologies. A recent example are Boltzmann Generators for generating 3D-structures of peptides and small proteins. These generative models leverage the space of internal coordinates (dihedrals, angles, and bonds), which is a product of hypertori and compact intervals. In this work, we introduce a class of smooth mixture transformations working on both compact intervals and hypertori. Mixture transformations employ root-finding methods to invert them in practice, which has so far prevented bi-directional flow training. To this end, we show that parameter gradients and forces of such inverses can be computed from forward evaluations via the inverse function theorem. We demonstrate two advantages of such smooth flows: they allow training by force matching to simulation data and can be used as potentials in molecular dynamics simulations.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

This paper studies the scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions in self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow by a halo-based non-projection approach. All particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles for redshift variation of distributions. Without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales r. We demonstrate that: i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade at a constant rate varepsilon_u; iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity Delta u_L follow a two-thirds law (-varepsilon_ur)^{2/3}, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling langle(Delta u_L)^{2n+1}rangle=(2n+1)langle(Delta u_L)^{2n}ranglelangleDelta u_Lrangler; iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities u_L or u_L^{'}, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) Delta u_L=u_L^{'}-u_L and velocity sum Sigma u_L=u^{'}_L+u_L. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; v) On small scales, u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a X distribution to maximize the system entropy; vi) On large scales, Delta u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a logistic or a X distribution; vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the X distribution involving a shape parameter alpha(z) decreasing with time.

The growing adoption of batteries in the electric vehicle industry and various consumer products has created an urgent need for effective recycling solutions. These products often contain a mix of compliant and rigid components, making robotic disassembly a critical step toward achieving scalable recycling processes. Diffusion policy has emerged as a promising approach for learning low-level skills in robotics. To effectively apply diffusion policy to contact-rich tasks, incorporating force as feedback is essential. In this paper, we apply diffusion policy with vision and force in a compliant object prying task. However, when combining low-dimensional contact force with high-dimensional image, the force information may be diluted. To address this issue, we propose a method that effectively integrates force with image data for diffusion policy observations. We validate our approach on a battery prying task that demands high precision and multi-step execution. Our model achieves a 96\% success rate in diverse scenarios, marking a 57\% improvement over the vision-only baseline. Our method also demonstrates zero-shot transfer capability to handle unseen objects and battery types. Supplementary videos and implementation codes are available on our project website. https://rros-lab.github.io/diffusion-with-force.github.io/

We introduce a neural network (NN) strictly governed by Newton's Law, with the nature required basis functions derived from the fundamental classic mechanics. Then, by classifying the training model as a quick procedure of 'force pattern' recognition, we developed the Newton physics-based NS scheme. Once the force pattern is confirmed, the neuro network simply does the checking of the 'pattern stability' instead of the continuous fitting by computational resource consuming big data-driven processing. In the given physics's law system, once the field is confirmed, the mathematics bases for the force field description actually are not diverged but denumerable, which can save the function representations from the exhaustible available mathematics bases. In this work, we endorsed Newton's Law into the deep learning technology and proposed Newton Scheme (NS). Under NS, the user first identifies the path pattern, like the constant acceleration movement.The object recognition technology first loads mass information, then, the NS finds the matched physical pattern and describe and predict the trajectory of the movements with nearly zero error. We compare the major contribution of this NS with the TCN, GRU and other physics inspired 'FIND-PDE' methods to demonstrate fundamental and extended applications of how the NS works for the free-falling, pendulum and curve soccer balls.The NS methodology provides more opportunity for the future deep learning advances.

Traditional foundation models are pre-trained on broad datasets to reduce the training resources (e.g., time, energy, labeled samples) needed for fine-tuning a wide range of downstream tasks. However, traditional foundation models struggle with out-of-distribution prediction and can produce outputs that are unrealistic and physically infeasible. We propose the notation of physics-guided foundation models (PGFM), that is, foundation models integrated with broad or general domain (e.g., scientific) physical knowledge applicable to a wide range of downstream tasks.

Contact-rich manipulation depends on applying the correct grasp forces throughout the manipulation task, especially when handling fragile or deformable objects. Most existing imitation learning approaches often treat visuotactile feedback only as an additional observation, leaving applied forces as an uncontrolled consequence of gripper commands. In this work, we present Force-Aware Robotic Manipulation (FARM), an imitation learning framework that integrates high-dimensional tactile data to infer tactile-conditioned force signals, which in turn define a matching force-based action space. We collect human demonstrations using a modified version of the handheld Universal Manipulation Interface (UMI) gripper that integrates a GelSight Mini visual tactile sensor. For deploying the learned policies, we developed an actuated variant of the UMI gripper with geometry matching our handheld version. During policy rollouts, the proposed FARM diffusion policy jointly predicts robot pose, grip width, and grip force. FARM outperforms several baselines across three tasks with distinct force requirements -- high-force, low-force, and dynamic force adaptation -- demonstrating the advantages of its two key components: leveraging force-grounded, high-dimensional tactile observations and a force-based control space. The codebase and design files are open-sourced and available at https://tactile-farm.github.io .

In this paper, we explore a novel approach to 3D anomaly detection (AD) that goes beyond merely identifying anomalies based on structural characteristics. Our primary perspective is that most anomalies arise from unpredictable defective forces originating from both internal and external sources. To address these anomalies, we seek out opposing forces that can help correct them. Therefore, we introduce the Mechanics Complementary Model-based Framework for the 3D-AD task (MC4AD), which generates internal and external corrective forces for each point. We first propose a Diverse Anomaly-Generation (DA-Gen) module designed to simulate various types of anomalies. Next, we present the Corrective Force Prediction Network (CFP-Net), which uses complementary representations for point-level analysis to simulate the different contributions from internal and external corrective forces. To ensure the corrective forces are constrained effectively, we have developed a combined loss function that includes a new symmetric loss and an overall loss. Notably, we implement a Hierarchical Quality Control (HQC) strategy based on a three-way decision process and contribute a dataset titled Anomaly-IntraVariance, which incorporates intraclass variance to evaluate our model. As a result, the proposed MC4AD has been proven effective through theory and experimentation. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach yields nine state-of-the-art performances, achieving optimal results with minimal parameters and the fastest inference speed across five existing datasets, in addition to the proposed Anomaly-IntraVariance dataset. The source is available at https://github.com/hzzzzzhappy/MC4AD

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

Gravitational waves from asymmetric mass-ratio black-hole binaries carry unique information about their astrophysical environment. For instance, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) could potentially measure the amplitude and slope of gas torques in binaries embedded in the accretion disks of Active Galactic Nuclei, helping differentiate competing accretion disk models. However, this relies on simplified analytic models, which do not account for the stochastic variability of torques seen in hydrodynamic simulations. In this work, we use hydrodynamic simulations to create gravitational waveforms for extreme and intermediate mass-ratio inspirals in the LISA band. We then analyze these simulated waveforms using simpler templates that assume analytic torques, without stochastic time variability. By performing realistic Bayesian parameter estimation, we find no bias at 90% confidence in the binary parameters; however, estimates of accretion disk parameters, such as torque amplitude and slope, may be biased. Typically, the posterior distribution is centered around the average value of the torques, but when stochastic variability is large, the posterior can indicate no torques, even though they are present in the simulation. Our results suggest that while simplified analytic torque models work well for estimating binary parameters, caution is needed when using them to infer properties of the accretion disk. This work moves towards a more realistic assessment of one of the LISA science objectives, i.e., probing the properties of the astrophysical environments of black holes.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

A number of recent self-supervised learning methods have shown impressive performance on image classification and other tasks. A somewhat bewildering variety of techniques have been used, not always with a clear understanding of the reasons for their benefits, especially when used in combination. Here we treat the embeddings of images as point particles and consider model optimization as a dynamic process on this system of particles. Our dynamic model combines an attractive force for similar images, a locally dispersive force to avoid local collapse, and a global dispersive force to achieve a globally-homogeneous distribution of particles. The dynamic perspective highlights the advantage of using a delayed-parameter image embedding (a la BYOL) together with multiple views of the same image. It also uses a purely-dynamic local dispersive force (Brownian motion) that shows improved performance over other methods and does not require knowledge of other particle coordinates. The method is called MSBReg which stands for (i) a Multiview centroid loss, which applies an attractive force to pull different image view embeddings toward their centroid, (ii) a Singular value loss, which pushes the particle system toward spatially homogeneous density, (iii) a Brownian diffusive loss. We evaluate downstream classification performance of MSBReg on ImageNet as well as transfer learning tasks including fine-grained classification, multi-class object classification, object detection, and instance segmentation. In addition, we also show that applying our regularization term to other methods further improves their performance and stabilize the training by preventing a mode collapse.

Recent physics foundation models claim general spatiotemporal forecasting ability, yet their evaluations often collapse performance into a single average score under a fixed training distribution. This makes it difficult to determine whether a model has learned generalizable physical dynamics or only performs well under particular settings. We construct a benchmark with 8 physical dynamics, 3 training-data mixtures, and 25 test regimes induced by dynamic-scale and initial-condition complexity shifts, covering in-distribution, distribution-shift, and out-of-distribution settings. We evaluate five physics foundation model architectures and four model variants per architecture (scratch and three pretrained sizes), resulting in 60,000 measurements. Our results show that current physics foundation models behave as conditional rather than universal generalists: their generality depends on the physical regime, temporal scale, initial-condition setting, pretraining, model size, and architecture. Improving the training data distribution only partially mitigates this limitation. Pretraining and scaling are also unable to reliably remove their ability biases. We argue that improving physics foundation models requires moving beyond scaling models or expanding data, toward learning mechanisms that better capture transferable physical knowledge across regimes, temporal scales, and distribution shifts.

We address the problem of understanding when and why Vision-Language-Action models struggle with contact-rich manipulation tasks that require precise physical interaction. Prior work has primarily focused on addressing contact failures through force-augmented architectures and training-time regularizers, yet the root causes of these failures remain underexplored. We identify two distinct failure modes underlying this gap. Precision failures are rooted in a flow-matching policy training mismatch, and force failures arise from the distinctive structure of force signals. We address each failure mode with a targeted mechanism and combine them into FACT, which achieves 66% average success rate across five contact-rich tasks against 41% for the best prior baseline, in an evaluation spanning almost 2,500 real-world rollouts.

Safe yet stable grasping requires a robotic hand to apply sufficient force on the object to immobilize it while keeping it from getting damaged. Soft robotic hands have been proposed for safe grasping due to their passive compliance, but even such a hand can crush objects if the applied force is too high. Thus for safe grasping, regulating the grasping force is of uttermost importance even with soft hands. In this work, we present a force controlled soft hand and use it to achieve safe grasping. To this end, resistive force and bend sensors are integrated in a soft hand, and a data-driven calibration method is proposed to estimate contact interaction forces. Given the force readings, the pneumatic pressures are regulated using a proportional-integral controller to achieve desired force. The controller is experimentally evaluated and benchmarked by grasping easily deformable objects such as plastic and paper cups without neither dropping nor deforming them. Together, the results demonstrate that our force controlled soft hand can grasp deformable objects in a safe yet stable manner.

We present FORGE, a method for sim-to-real transfer of force-aware manipulation policies in the presence of significant pose uncertainty. During simulation-based policy learning, FORGE combines a force threshold mechanism with a dynamics randomization scheme to enable robust transfer of the learned policies to the real robot. At deployment, FORGE policies, conditioned on a maximum allowable force, adaptively perform contact-rich tasks while avoiding aggressive and unsafe behaviour, regardless of the controller gains. Additionally, FORGE policies predict task success, enabling efficient termination and autonomous tuning of the force threshold. We show that FORGE can be used to learn a variety of robust contact-rich policies, including the forceful insertion of snap-fit connectors. We further demonstrate the multistage assembly of a planetary gear system, which requires success across three assembly tasks: nut threading, insertion, and gear meshing. Project website can be accessed at https://noseworm.github.io/forge/.

How momentum, energy, and magnetic fields are transported in the presence of macroscopic gradients is a fundamental question in plasma physics. Answering this question is especially challenging for weakly collisional, magnetized plasmas, where macroscopic gradients influence the plasma's microphysical structure. In this paper, we introduce thermodynamic forcing, a new method for systematically modeling how macroscopic gradients in magnetized or unmagnetized plasmas shape the distribution functions of constituent particles. In this method, we propose to apply an anomalous force to those particles inducing the anisotropy that would naturally emerge due to macroscopic gradients in weakly collisional plasmas. We implement thermodynamic forcing in particle-in-cell (TF-PIC) simulations using a modified Vay particle pusher and validate it against analytic solutions of the equations of motion. We then carry out a series of simulations of electron-proton plasmas with periodic boundary conditions using TF-PIC. First, we confirm that the properties of two electron-scale kinetic instabilities -- one driven by a temperature gradient and the other by pressure anisotropy -- are consistent with previous results. Then, we demonstrate that in the presence of multiple macroscopic gradients, the saturated state can differ significantly from current expectations. This work enables, for the first time, systematic and self-consistent transport modeling in weakly collisional plasmas, with broad applications in astrophysics, laser-plasma physics, and inertial confinement fusion.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

After decades of brown dwarf discovery and follow-up, we can now infer the functional form of the mass distribution within 20 parsecs, which serves as a constraint on star formation theory at the lowest masses. Unlike objects on the main sequence that have a clear luminosity-to-mass correlation, brown dwarfs lack a correlation between an observable parameter (luminosity, spectral type, or color) and mass. A measurement of the brown dwarf mass function must therefore be procured through proxy measurements and theoretical models. We utilize various assumed forms of the mass function, together with a variety of birthrate functions, low-mass cutoffs, and theoretical evolutionary models, to build predicted forms of the effective temperature distribution. We then determine the best fit of the observed effective temperature distribution to these predictions, which in turn reveals the most likely mass function. We find that a simple power law (dN/dM propto M^{-α}) with αapprox 0.5 is optimal. Additionally, we conclude that the low-mass cutoff for star formation is lesssim0.005M_{odot}. We corroborate the findings of Burgasser (2004) which state that the birthrate has a far lesser impact than the mass function on the form of the temperature distribution, but we note that our alternate birthrates tend to favor slightly smaller values of α than the constant birthrate. Our code for simulating these distributions is publicly available. As another use case for this code, we present findings on the width and location of the subdwarf temperature gap by simulating distributions of very old (8-10 Gyr) brown dwarfs.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Context. Understanding how the shape of cloud particle size distributions affects the atmospheric properties of sub-stellar atmospheres is a key area to explore, particularly in the JWST era of broad wavelength coverage, where observations are sensitive to particle size distributions. It is therefore important to elucidate how underlying cloud microphysical processes influence the size distribution, in order to better understand how clouds affect observed atmospheric properties. Aims. In this follow-up paper, we aim to extend our sub-stellar atmosphere microphysical cloud formation framework from Paper I to include effects of assuming a polydisperse gamma particle size distribution, requiring a three-moment solution set of equations. Methods. We develop a three-moment framework for sub-stellar mineral cloud particle microphysical nucleation, condensation, evaporation and collisional growth assuming a gamma distribution. As in the previous paper, we demonstrate the effects of polydispersity using a simple one-dimensional Y-dwarf KCl cloud formation scenario, and compare the results with the monodisperse case. Results. Our three-moment scheme provides a generalised framework applicable to any size distribution with a defined moment generation expression. In our test case, we show that the gamma distribution evolves with altitude, initially broad at the cloud base and narrowing at lower pressures. We find that differences between the gamma and monodisperse cloud structures can be significant, depending on the surface gravity of the atmosphere. Conclusions. We present a self-consistent framework for including the effects of polydispersity for sub-stellar microphysical cloud studies using the moment method.

Astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection experiments are typically addressed by parametrizing the velocity distribution in terms of a few uncertain parameters that vary around some central values. Here we propose a method to optimize over all velocity distributions lying within a given distance measure from a central distribution. We discretize the dark matter velocity distribution as a superposition of streams, and use a variety of information divergences to parametrize its uncertainties. With this, we bracket the limits on the dark matter-nucleon and dark matter-electron scattering cross sections, when the true dark matter velocity distribution deviates from the commonly assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann form. The methodology pursued is general and could be applied to other physics scenarios where a given physical observable depends on a function that is uncertain.

Recent advances in video generation models have sparked interest in world models capable of simulating realistic environments. While navigation has been well-explored, physically meaningful interactions that mimic real-world forces remain largely understudied. In this work, we investigate using physical forces as a control signal for video generation and propose force prompts which enable users to interact with images through both localized point forces, such as poking a plant, and global wind force fields, such as wind blowing on fabric. We demonstrate that these force prompts can enable videos to respond realistically to physical control signals by leveraging the visual and motion prior in the original pretrained model, without using any 3D asset or physics simulator at inference. The primary challenge of force prompting is the difficulty in obtaining high quality paired force-video training data, both in the real world due to the difficulty of obtaining force signals, and in synthetic data due to limitations in the visual quality and domain diversity of physics simulators. Our key finding is that video generation models can generalize remarkably well when adapted to follow physical force conditioning from videos synthesized by Blender, even with limited demonstrations of few objects. Our method can generate videos which simulate forces across diverse geometries, settings, and materials. We also try to understand the source of this generalization and perform ablations that reveal two key elements: visual diversity and the use of specific text keywords during training. Our approach is trained on only around 15k training examples for a single day on four A100 GPUs, and outperforms existing methods on force adherence and physics realism, bringing world models closer to real-world physics interactions. We release all datasets, code, weights, and interactive video demos at our project page.

In this note we explore the distribution of vacuum expectation values of the superpotential W_0 in explicit Type IIB flux compactifications. We show that the distribution can be approximated, universally across geometries, by a two-dimensional Gaussian with a model dependent standard deviation. We identify this behaviour in 20 Calabi-Yau orientifold compactifications with between two and five complex structure moduli by constructing a total of O(10^7) flux vacua. We observe a characteristic scaling behaviour of the width σ of our distributions with respect to the D3-charge contributions N_{flux} from fluxes which can be approximated by σsim N_{text{flux}}. This W_0 distribution implies that locating small values of |W_0| as a preferred regime associated with classes of string theory solutions typically featuring hierarchies, simplifies to the basic statement of finding small Euclidean norms of normally distributed values. We do also identify small modifications to this Gaussian behaviour in our samples which might be seen as indications for the breakdown of the continuous flux approximation commonly used in the context of statistical analyses of the flux landscape.

We study the problem of predicting numeric labels that are constrained to the integers or to a subrange of the integers. For example, the number of up-votes on social media posts, or the number of bicycles available at a public rental station. While it is possible to model these as continuous values, and to apply traditional regression, this approach changes the underlying distribution on the labels from discrete to continuous. Discrete distributions have certain benefits, which leads us to the question whether such integer labels can be modeled directly by a discrete distribution, whose parameters are predicted from the features of a given instance. Moreover, we focus on the use case of output distributions of neural networks, which adds the requirement that the parameters of the distribution be continuous so that backpropagation and gradient descent may be used to learn the weights of the network. We investigate several options for such distributions, some existing and some novel, and test them on a range of tasks, including tabular learning, sequential prediction and image generation. We find that overall the best performance comes from two distributions: Bitwise, which represents the target integer in bits and places a Bernoulli distribution on each, and a discrete analogue of the Laplace distribution, which uses a distribution with exponentially decaying tails around a continuous mean.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

Body dynamics are crucial information for the analysis of human motions in important research fields, ranging from biomechanics, sports science to computer vision and graphics. Modern approaches collect the body dynamics, external reactive force specifically, via force plates, synchronizing with human motion capture data, and learn to estimate the dynamics from a black-box deep learning model. Being specialized devices, force plates can only be installed in laboratory setups, imposing a significant limitation on the learning of human dynamics. To this end, we propose a novel method for estimating human ground reaction dynamics directly from the more reliable motion capture data with physics laws and computational simulation as constrains. We introduce a highly accurate and robust method for computing ground reaction forces from motion capture data using Euler's integration scheme and PD algorithm. The physics-based reactive forces are used to inform the learning model about the physics-informed motion dynamics thus improving the estimation accuracy. The proposed approach was tested on the GroundLink dataset, outperforming the baseline model on: 1) the ground reaction force estimation accuracy compared to the force plates measurement; and 2) our simulated root trajectory precision. The implementation code is available at https://github.com/cuongle1206/Phys-GRD

We introduce a novel dataset designed to benchmark the physical and spatial reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLM) based on topology optimization, a method for computing optimal material distributions within a design space under prescribed loads and supports. In this dataset, LLMs are provided with conditions such as 2D boundary, applied forces and supports, and must reason about the resulting optimal material distribution. The dataset includes a variety of tasks, ranging from filling in masked regions within partial structures to predicting complete material distributions. Solving these tasks requires understanding the flow of forces and the required material distribution under given constraints, without access to simulation tools or explicit physical models, challenging models to reason about structural stability and spatial organization. Our dataset targets the evaluation of spatial and physical reasoning abilities in 2D settings, offering a complementary perspective to traditional language and logic benchmarks.

Recent advances in mechanistic interpretability have revealed that large language models (LLMs) develop internal representations corresponding not only to concrete entities but also distinct, human-understandable abstract concepts and behaviour. Moreover, these hidden features can be directly manipulated to steer model behaviour. However, it remains an open question whether this phenomenon is unique to models trained on inherently structured data (ie. language, images) or if it is a general property of foundation models. In this work, we investigate the internal representations of a large physics-focused foundation model. Inspired by recent work identifying single directions in activation space for complex behaviours in LLMs, we extract activation vectors from the model during forward passes over simulation datasets for different physical regimes. We then compute "delta" representations between the two regimes. These delta tensors act as concept directions in activation space, encoding specific physical features. By injecting these concept directions back into the model during inference, we can steer its predictions, demonstrating causal control over physical behaviours, such as inducing or removing some particular physical feature from a simulation. These results suggest that scientific foundation models learn generalised representations of physical principles. They do not merely rely on superficial correlations and patterns in the simulations. Our findings open new avenues for understanding and controlling scientific foundation models and has implications for AI-enabled scientific discovery.

The superfluid phase transition dynamics and associated spontaneous vortex formation with the crossing of the critical temperature in a disk geometry is studied in the framework of the AdS/CFT correspondence by solving the Einstein-Abelian-Higgs model in an AdS_4 black hole. For a slow quench, the vortex density admits a universal scaling law with the cooling rate as predicted by the Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM), while for fast quenches, the density shows a universal scaling behavior as a function of the final temperature, that lies beyond the KZM prediction. The vortex number distribution in both the power-law and saturation regimes can be approximated by a normal distribution. However, the study of the universal scaling of the cumulants reveals non-normal features and indicates that vortex statistics in the newborn superfluid is best described by the Poisson binomial distribution, previously predicted in the KZM regime [Phys. Rev. Lett. 124, 240602 (2020)]. This is confirmed by studying the cumulant scalings as a function of the quench time and the quench depth. Our work supports the existence of a universal defect number distribution that accommodates the KZM scaling, its breakdown at fast quenches, and the additional universal scaling laws as a function of the final value of the control parameter.

Surrogate models are necessary to optimize meaningful quantities in physical dynamics as their recursive numerical resolutions are often prohibitively expensive. It is mainly the case for fluid dynamics and the resolution of Navier-Stokes equations. However, despite the fast-growing field of data-driven models for physical systems, reference datasets representing real-world phenomena are lacking. In this work, we develop AirfRANS, a dataset for studying the two-dimensional incompressible steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations over airfoils at a subsonic regime and for different angles of attacks. We also introduce metrics on the stress forces at the surface of geometries and visualization of boundary layers to assess the capabilities of models to accurately predict the meaningful information of the problem. Finally, we propose deep learning baselines on four machine learning tasks to study AirfRANS under different constraints for generalization considerations: big and scarce data regime, Reynolds number, and angle of attack extrapolation.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Machine learning potentials (MLPs) have become essential for large-scale atomistic simulations, enabling ab initio-level accuracy with computational efficiency. However, current MLPs struggle with uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability for active learning, calibration, and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We address these challenges by developing Bayesian E(3) equivariant MLPs with iterative restratification of many-body message passing. Our approach introduces the joint energy-force negative log-likelihood (NLL_JEF) loss function, which explicitly models uncertainty in both energies and interatomic forces, yielding superior accuracy compared to conventional NLL losses. We systematically benchmark multiple Bayesian approaches, including deep ensembles with mean-variance estimation, stochastic weight averaging Gaussian, improved variational online Newton, and laplace approximation by evaluating their performance on uncertainty prediction, OOD detection, calibration, and active learning tasks. We further demonstrate that NLL_JEF facilitates efficient active learning by quantifying energy and force uncertainties. Using Bayesian active learning by disagreement (BALD), our framework outperforms random sampling and energy-uncertainty-based sampling. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian MLPs achieve competitive accuracy with state-of-the-art models while enabling uncertainty-guided active learning, OOD detection, and energy/forces calibration. This work establishes Bayesian equivariant neural networks as a powerful framework for developing uncertainty-aware MLPs for atomistic simulations at scale.

The magnetic phase diagram at zero external field of an ensemble of dipoles with uniaxial anisotropy on a FCC lattice is investigated from tempered Monte Carlo simulations. The uniaxial anisotropy is characterized by a random distribution of easy axes and its magnitude lambda_u is the driving force of disorder and consequently frustration. The phase diagram, separating the paramagnetic, ferromagnetic, quasi long range ordered ferromagnetic and spin-glass regions is thus considered in the temperature, lambda_u plane. This system is aimed at modeling the magnetic phase diagram of supracrystals of magnetic nanoparticles.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

The polarization of an X-ray beam that produces electrons with velocity components perpendicular to the beam generates an azimuthal distribution of the ejected electrons. We present methods for simulating and for analyzing the angular dependence of electron detections which enable us to derive simple analytical expressions for useful statistical properties of observable data. The derivations are verified by simulations. While we confirm the results of previous work on this topic, we provide an extension needed for analytical treatment of the full range of possible polarization amplitudes.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Foundation models have transformed machine learning for language and vision, but achieving comparable impact in physical simulation remains a challenge. Data heterogeneity and unstable long-term dynamics inhibit learning from sufficiently diverse dynamics, while varying resolutions and dimensionalities challenge efficient training on modern hardware. Through empirical and theoretical analysis, we incorporate new approaches to mitigate these obstacles, including a harmonic-analysis-based stabilization method, load-balanced distributed 2D and 3D training strategies, and compute-adaptive tokenization. Using these tools, we develop Walrus, a transformer-based foundation model developed primarily for fluid-like continuum dynamics. Walrus is pretrained on nineteen diverse scenarios spanning astrophysics, geoscience, rheology, plasma physics, acoustics, and classical fluids. Experiments show that Walrus outperforms prior foundation models on both short and long term prediction horizons on downstream tasks and across the breadth of pretraining data, while ablation studies confirm the value of our contributions to forecast stability, training throughput, and transfer performance over conventional approaches. Code and weights are released for community use.

Lagrangian turbulence lies at the core of numerous applied and fundamental problems related to the physics of dispersion and mixing in engineering, bio-fluids, atmosphere, oceans, and astrophysics. Despite exceptional theoretical, numerical, and experimental efforts conducted over the past thirty years, no existing models are capable of faithfully reproducing statistical and topological properties exhibited by particle trajectories in turbulence. We propose a machine learning approach, based on a state-of-the-art diffusion model, to generate single-particle trajectories in three-dimensional turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, thereby bypassing the need for direct numerical simulations or experiments to obtain reliable Lagrangian data. Our model demonstrates the ability to reproduce most statistical benchmarks across time scales, including the fat-tail distribution for velocity increments, the anomalous power law, and the increased intermittency around the dissipative scale. Slight deviations are observed below the dissipative scale, particularly in the acceleration and flatness statistics. Surprisingly, the model exhibits strong generalizability for extreme events, producing events of higher intensity and rarity that still match the realistic statistics. This paves the way for producing synthetic high-quality datasets for pre-training various downstream applications of Lagrangian turbulence.

The increasing population of objects in geostationary orbit has raised concerns about the potential risks posed by debris clouds resulting from fragmentation. The short-term evolution and associated hazards of debris generated by collisions in the geostationary region is investigated in this study. The initial distribution of two debris clouds is modeled using a single probability density function.The combined distribution of the evolved clouds is determined by solving boundary value problems.The risks associated with these debris clouds are evaluated by calculating the instantaneous impact rate and cumulative collision probability.The probability of collisions with millimeter-sized fragments may increase to 1% within 36 hours, while the probability of collisions with fragments 5 cm or larger is approximately 10^{-5}.These findings underscore the vulnerability of the geostationary region to space traffic accidents.

We introduce FEEL (Force-Enhanced Egocentric Learning), the first large-scale dataset pairing force measurements gathered from custom piezoresistive gloves with egocentric video. Our gloves enable scalable data collection, and FEEL contains approximately 3 million force-synchronized frames of natural unscripted manipulation in kitchen environments, with 45% of frames involving hand-object contact. Because force is the underlying cause that drives physical interaction, it is a critical primitive for physical action understanding. We demonstrate the utility of force for physical action understanding through application of FEEL to two families of tasks: (1) contact understanding, where we jointly perform temporal contact segmentation and pixel-level contacted object segmentation; and, (2) action representation learning, where force prediction serves as a self-supervised pretraining objective for video backbones. We achieve state-of-the-art temporal contact segmentation results and competitive pixel-level segmentation results without any need for manual contacted object segmentation annotations. Furthermore we demonstrate that action representation learning with FEEL improves transfer performance on action understanding tasks without any manual labels over EPIC-Kitchens, SomethingSomething-V2, EgoExo4D and Meccano.

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

The friction coefficient of a particle can depend on its position as it does when the particle is near a wall. We formulate the dynamics of particles with such state-dependent friction coefficients in terms of a general Langevin equation with multiplicative noise, whose evaluation requires the introduction of specific rules. Two common conventions, the Ito and the Stratonovich, provide alternative rules for evaluation of the noise, but other conventions are possible. We show the requirement that a particle's distribution function approach the Boltzmann distribution at long times dictates that a drift term must be added to the Langevin equation. This drift term is proportional to the derivative of the diffusion coefficient times a factor that depends on the convention used to define the multiplicative noise. We explore the consequences of this result in a number examples with spatially varying diffusion coefficients. We also derive path integral representations for arbitrary interpretation of the noise, and use it in a perturbative study of correlations in a simple system.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

Generative sequence models are often trained to plan motion in physical domains, from robotics to mechanical simulations. When constructing a dataset to train such a model, engineers may curate demonstrations to specify how trajectories should be distributed over a physical quantity like travel distance or mechanical energy. For example, a roboticist building a maze navigation agent might choose demonstrations whose travel distances cover a fixed range uniformly, hoping to constrain the agent's expected power usage. We find that standard deep learning can violate this intent: each generated trajectory can seem plausible on its own, but the aggregate distribution over the physical quantity is wrong. We call this failure physical misgeneralization, and develop an account of its mechanism. Using controlled synthetic tasks, we show that physical misgeneralization arises when local errors typical of the model class propagate through the physical measurement to shift the recovered distribution. We estimate these errors with a data deviation kernel, and we use it to predict which physical quantities gain or lose mass in both our synthetic and more applied maze navigation and double-pendulum motion tasks. Finally, our mechanistic interpretation helps identify which mitigation strategies are structurally promising, and we use it to propose a kernel-informed intervention.

Zipf's law appears in many application areas but does not have a closed form expression, which may make its use cumbersome. Since it coincides with the truncated version of the Zeta distribution, in this paper we propose three approximate closed form expressions for the truncated Zeta distribution, which may be employed for Zipf's law as well. The three approximations are based on the replacement of the sum occurring in Zipf's law with an integral, and are named respectively the integral approximation, the average integral approximation, and the trapezoidal approximation. While the first one is shown to be of little use, the trapezoidal approximation exhibits an error which is typically lower than 1\%, but is as low as 0.1\% for the range of values of the Zipf parameter below 1.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

Estimating physical properties for visual data is a crucial task in computer vision, graphics, and robotics, underpinning applications such as augmented reality, physical simulation, and robotic grasping. However, this area remains under-explored due to the inherent ambiguities in physical property estimation. To address these challenges, we introduce GaussianProperty, a training-free framework that assigns physical properties of materials to 3D Gaussians. Specifically, we integrate the segmentation capability of SAM with the recognition capability of GPT-4V(ision) to formulate a global-local physical property reasoning module for 2D images. Then we project the physical properties from multi-view 2D images to 3D Gaussians using a voting strategy. We demonstrate that 3D Gaussians with physical property annotations enable applications in physics-based dynamic simulation and robotic grasping. For physics-based dynamic simulation, we leverage the Material Point Method (MPM) for realistic dynamic simulation. For robot grasping, we develop a grasping force prediction strategy that estimates a safe force range required for object grasping based on the estimated physical properties. Extensive experiments on material segmentation, physics-based dynamic simulation, and robotic grasping validate the effectiveness of our proposed method, highlighting its crucial role in understanding physical properties from visual data. Online demo, code, more cases and annotated datasets are available on https://Gaussian-Property.github.io{this https URL}.

In this work, we build on recent advances in distributional reinforcement learning to give a generally applicable, flexible, and state-of-the-art distributional variant of DQN. We achieve this by using quantile regression to approximate the full quantile function for the state-action return distribution. By reparameterizing a distribution over the sample space, this yields an implicitly defined return distribution and gives rise to a large class of risk-sensitive policies. We demonstrate improved performance on the 57 Atari 2600 games in the ALE, and use our algorithm's implicitly defined distributions to study the effects of risk-sensitive policies in Atari games.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is bottlenecked by reward hacking, where the policy exploits errors in a proxy reward model (RM) and produces high RM scores without genuine quality gains. A natural mitigation is pessimism: lowering rewards in regions where the RM is uncertain. However, standard scalar RMs provide no principled notion of uncertainty. We argue that the right object is a distributional reward model p(rmid x,y). Under either a Bayesian inference or a KL-distributionally robust optimization (KL-DRO) lens, the KL-regularized RLHF objective admits a closed-form effective reward tilde r(x,y) = pmβlogE_p[e^{pm r/β}]. The pessimistic branch unifies the prior heuristics for RM ensemble aggregation: mean aggregation, worst-case optimization (WCO), and uncertainty-weighted optimization (UWO) all emerge as limits or truncations of this single expression. This also clarifies the implicit assumptions of each existing rule.

A distribution shift can have fundamental consequences such as signaling a change in the operating environment or significantly reducing the accuracy of downstream models. Thus, understanding distribution shifts is critical for examining and hopefully mitigating the effect of such a shift. Most prior work focuses on merely detecting if a shift has occurred and assumes any detected shift can be understood and handled appropriately by a human operator. We hope to aid in these manual mitigation tasks by explaining the distribution shift using interpretable transportation maps from the original distribution to the shifted one. We derive our interpretable mappings from a relaxation of optimal transport, where the candidate mappings are restricted to a set of interpretable mappings. We then inspect multiple quintessential use-cases of distribution shift in real-world tabular, text, and image datasets to showcase how our explanatory mappings provide a better balance between detail and interpretability than baseline explanations by both visual inspection and our PercentExplained metric.

The solar wind is a medium characterized by strong turbulence and significant field fluctuations on various scales. Recent observations have revealed that magnetic turbulence exhibits a self-similar behavior. Similarly, high-resolution measurements of the proton density have shown comparable characteristics, prompting several studies into the multifractal properties of these density fluctuations. In this work, we show that low-resolution observations of the solar wind proton density over time, recorded by various spacecraft at Lagrange point L1, also exhibit non-linear and multifractal structures. The novelty of our study lies in the fact that this is the first systematic analysis of solar wind proton density using low-resolution (hourly) data collected by multiple spacecraft at the L1 Lagrange point over a span of 17 years. Furthermore, we interpret our results within the framework of non-extensive statistical mechanics, which appears to be consistent with the observed nonlinear behavior. Based on the data, we successfully validate the q-triplet predicted by non-extensive statistical theory. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the most rigorous and systematic validation to date of the q-triplet in the solar wind.

Foundation models are premised on the idea that sequence prediction can uncover deeper domain understanding, much like how Kepler's predictions of planetary motion later led to the discovery of Newtonian mechanics. However, evaluating whether these models truly capture deeper structure remains a challenge. We develop a technique for evaluating foundation models that examines how they adapt to synthetic datasets generated from some postulated world model. Our technique measures whether the foundation model's inductive bias aligns with the world model, and so we refer to it as an inductive bias probe. Across multiple domains, we find that foundation models can excel at their training tasks yet fail to develop inductive biases towards the underlying world model when adapted to new tasks. We particularly find that foundation models trained on orbital trajectories consistently fail to apply Newtonian mechanics when adapted to new physics tasks. Further analysis reveals that these models behave as if they develop task-specific heuristics that fail to generalize.

In machine learning, generalization against distribution shifts -- where deployment conditions diverge from the training scenarios -- is crucial, particularly in fields like climate modeling, biomedicine, and autonomous driving. The emergence of foundation models, distinguished by their extensive pretraining and task versatility, has led to an increased interest in their adaptability to distribution shifts. GPT-4V(ision) acts as the most advanced publicly accessible multimodal foundation model, with extensive applications across various domains, including anomaly detection, video understanding, image generation, and medical diagnosis. However, its robustness against data distributions remains largely underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study rigorously evaluates GPT-4V's adaptability and generalization capabilities in dynamic environments, benchmarking against prominent models like CLIP and LLaVA. We delve into GPT-4V's zero-shot generalization across 13 diverse datasets spanning natural, medical, and molecular domains. We further investigate its adaptability to controlled data perturbations and examine the efficacy of in-context learning as a tool to enhance its adaptation. Our findings delineate GPT-4V's capability boundaries in distribution shifts, shedding light on its strengths and limitations across various scenarios. Importantly, this investigation contributes to our understanding of how AI foundation models generalize to distribution shifts, offering pivotal insights into their adaptability and robustness. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jameszhou-gl/gpt-4v-distribution-shift.

Turbulent magnetic fields are to some extent a universal feature in astrophysical phenomena. Charged particles that encounter these turbulence get on average accelerated according to the so-called second-order Fermi process. However, in most astrophysical environments there are additional competing processes, such as different kinds of first-order energy changes and particle escape, that effect the resulting momentum distribution of the particles. In this work we provide to our knowledge the first semi-analytical solution of the isotropic steady-state momentum diffusion equation including continuous and catastrophic momentum changes that can be applied to any arbitrary astrophysical system of interest. Here, we adopt that the assigned magnetic turbulence is constrained on a finite range and the particle flux vanishes beyond these boundaries. Consequently, we show that the so-called pile-up bump -- that has for some special cases long been established -- is a universal feature of stochastic acceleration that emerges around the momentum chi_{rm eq} where acceleration and continuous loss are in equilibrium if the particle's residence time in the system is sufficient at chi_{rm eq}. In general, the impact of continuous and catastrophic momentum changes plays a crucial role in the shape of the steady-state momentum distribution of the accelerated particles, where simplified unbroken power-law approximations are often not adequate.

We introduce Distribution Contractive Reinforcement Learning (DICE-RL), a framework that uses reinforcement learning (RL) as a "distribution contraction" operator to refine pretrained generative robot policies. DICE-RL turns a pretrained behavior prior into a high-performing "pro" policy by amplifying high-success behaviors from online feedback. We pretrain a diffusion- or flow-based policy for broad behavioral coverage, then finetune it with a stable, sample-efficient residual off-policy RL framework that combines selective behavior regularization with value-guided action selection. Extensive experiments and analyses show that DICE-RL reliably improves performance with strong stability and sample efficiency. It enables mastery of complex long-horizon manipulation skills directly from high-dimensional pixel inputs, both in simulation and on a real robot. Project website: https://zhanyisun.github.io/dice.rl.2026/.

In recent years, diffusion models trained on equilibrium molecular distributions have proven effective for sampling biomolecules. Beyond direct sampling, the score of such a model can also be used to derive the forces that act on molecular systems. However, while classical diffusion sampling usually recovers the training distribution, the corresponding energy-based interpretation of the learned score is often inconsistent with this distribution, even for low-dimensional toy systems. We trace this inconsistency to inaccuracies of the learned score at very small diffusion timesteps, where the model must capture the correct evolution of the data distribution. In this regime, diffusion models fail to satisfy the Fokker--Planck equation, which governs the evolution of the score. We interpret this deviation as one source of the observed inconsistencies and propose an energy-based diffusion model with a Fokker--Planck-derived regularization term to enforce consistency. We demonstrate our approach by sampling and simulating multiple biomolecular systems, including fast-folding proteins, and by introducing a state-of-the-art transferable Boltzmann emulator for dipeptides that supports simulation and achieves improved consistency and efficient sampling. Our code, model weights, and self-contained JAX and PyTorch notebooks are available at https://github.com/noegroup/ScoreMD.

Distributional shift, or the mismatch between training and deployment data, is a significant obstacle to the usage of machine learning in high-stakes industrial applications, such as autonomous driving and medicine. This creates a need to be able to assess how robustly ML models generalize as well as the quality of their uncertainty estimates. Standard ML baseline datasets do not allow these properties to be assessed, as the training, validation and test data are often identically distributed. Recently, a range of dedicated benchmarks have appeared, featuring both distributionally matched and shifted data. Among these benchmarks, the Shifts dataset stands out in terms of the diversity of tasks as well as the data modalities it features. While most of the benchmarks are heavily dominated by 2D image classification tasks, Shifts contains tabular weather forecasting, machine translation, and vehicle motion prediction tasks. This enables the robustness properties of models to be assessed on a diverse set of industrial-scale tasks and either universal or directly applicable task-specific conclusions to be reached. In this paper, we extend the Shifts Dataset with two datasets sourced from industrial, high-risk applications of high societal importance. Specifically, we consider the tasks of segmentation of white matter Multiple Sclerosis lesions in 3D magnetic resonance brain images and the estimation of power consumption in marine cargo vessels. Both tasks feature ubiquitous distributional shifts and a strict safety requirement due to the high cost of errors. These new datasets will allow researchers to further explore robust generalization and uncertainty estimation in new situations. In this work, we provide a description of the dataset and baseline results for both tasks.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

In this paper, we introduce tensor involved peridynamics, a unified framework for simulating both isotropic and anisotropic materials. While traditional peridynamics models effectively simulate isotropic materials, they face challenges with anisotropic materials and are prone to instability caused by zero energy modes. Our novel model extend the linear bond based peridynamics framework by incorporating the elastic tensor into the micrmodulus function, thereby ensuring stability for anisotropic materials without the need for additional corrections. For isotropic materials. the model mantains compatibility with conventional bond based peridynamics, assuming Possion's rations of 1/4 in 3D and 1/3 in 2D.Numerical experiments confirm the model's stability and accuracy across various scenarios. Additionally, we introduce a damage model for isotropic materials. validating its performance in predicting crack propagation paths in a 2D plate. The results show superior alignment with experimental date compared to traditional model.

We search for dark matter (DM) annihilating subhalos of the Milky Way halo among the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) unassociated sources. We construct, for the first time, a statistical model of the unassociated sources at latitudes above 10 degrees. The latter is built as a combination of both DM annihilation subhalos as well as Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical components. The astrophysical components are constructed based on distributions of associated sources, while the distribution of DM subhalos is derived from Monte Carlo simulations. In this model we take into account the differences in the distributions of associated and unassociated sources including both covariate and prior probability shifts (both being forms of ``dataset shifts''). Previous searches of DM subhalos were based on classify-and-count strategies, while the approach adopted in this work is based on quantification learning, which allows one to determine a well-defined statistical interpretation of the contribution of a population of DM subhalos to the unassociated Fermi-LAT sources. In the bb annihilation channel and for a range of DM masses from 10 GeV to 1 TeV, we don't find a significant contribution from DM subhalos and derive a statistical 95% confidence upper limit on the DM annihilation cross section in this channel. While the derived limits are consistent with previous classify-and-count approaches, our generative statistical model opens new avenues for population studies of Fermi-LAT sources and, more generally, for searches of anomalies on top of backgrounds in presence of statistical and systematic uncertainties.

We introduce StreamForce, a streaming video generation framework that enables physically grounded control through continuous force inputs. Unlike prior video models that train separate models for different force types, assume fixed forces, or rely on non-causal processing, StreamForce is a causal and unified model that responds instantly and coherently to both local and global, time-varying forces. To achieve this, we design a unified force representation as a control signal and develop a distillation pipeline for force-controllable video generation. Our model combines autoregressive efficiency with force responsiveness, sustaining stable photometric and dynamic realism. StreamForce runs at up to 16.6 FPS on a single GPU, achieving state-of-the-art performance in both force adherence and motion realism. Project website: https://neu-vi.github.io/StreamForce/

We study stellar core growth in simulations of merging massive (M_star>10^{11},M_odot) elliptical galaxies by a supermassive black hole (SMBH) displaced by gravitational wave induced recoil velocity. With controlled, dense sampling of the SMBH recoil velocity, we find the core radius originally formed by SMBH binary scouring can grow by a factor of 2-3 when the recoil velocity exceeds sim50 per cent of the central escape velocity, and the mass deficit grows by up to a factor of sim4. Using Bayesian inference we predict the distribution of stellar core sizes formed through this process to peak at sim1,kpc. An orbital decomposition of stellar particles within the core reveals that radial orbits dominate over tube orbits when the recoil velocity exceeds the velocity dispersion of the core, whereas tube orbits dominate for the lowest recoil kicks. A change in orbital structure is reflected in the anisotropy parameter, with a central tangential bias present only for recoil velocities less than the local stellar velocity dispersion. Emulating current integral field unit observations of the stellar line-of-sight velocity distribution, we uncover a distinct signature in the Gauss-Hermite symmetric deviation coefficient h_4 that uniquely constrains the core size due to binary scouring. This signature is insensitive to the later evolution of the stellar mass distribution due to SMBH recoil. Our results provide a novel method to estimate the SMBH recoil magnitude from observations of local elliptical galaxies, and implies these galaxies primarily experienced recoil velocities less than the stellar velocity dispersion of the core.