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Aug 5

K-Forcing: Joint Next-K-Token Decoding via Push-Forward Language Modeling

Autoregressive (AR) language modeling is the dominant paradigm for text generation, yet its sequential token-by-token decoding makes inference memory-bound and inefficient. Existing acceleration approaches, such as speculative decoding and diffusion language models, can yield speedups under certain conditions but do not directly address high-load batch serving--the scenario most critical for industrial-scale deployment. We introduce K-Forcing, a push-forward language modeling paradigm for joint next-k-token decoding. K-Forcing distills an existing AR model into a conditional push-forward mapping--one that transforms independent uniform noise variables into a joint sample of multiple future tokens in a single forward pass. This design preserves fixed-length outputs, reuses the AR teacher backbone, and remains compatible with standard AR serving infrastructure. We train this mapping via progressive self-forcing distillation, which gradually expands the prediction window while enabling the student to closely match the sequence distribution of the AR teacher. We evaluate K-Forcing on LM1B and OpenWebText using a standard causal Transformer backbone. When aggressively configured to generate k = 4 tokens per forward pass, K-Forcing delivers approximately 2.4-3.5x speedup across different batch sizes, while incurring modest quality degradation relative to its AR teacher. As inference increasingly dominates the lifetime compute cost of modern LLMs, K-Forcing offers a promising route toward accelerating AR generation under real-world high-load deployment.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 8

Sparse Forcing: Native Trainable Sparse Attention for Real-time Autoregressive Diffusion Video Generation

We introduce Sparse Forcing, a training-and-inference paradigm for autoregressive video diffusion models that improves long-horizon generation quality while reducing decoding latency. Sparse Forcing is motivated by an empirical observation in autoregressive diffusion rollouts: attention concentrates on a persistent subset of salient visual blocks, forming an implicit spatiotemporal memory in the KV cache, and exhibits a locally structured block-sparse pattern within sliding windows. Building on this observation, we propose a trainable native sparsity mechanism that learns to compress, preserve, and update these persistent blocks while restricting computation within each local window to a dynamically selected local neighborhood. To make the approach practical at scale for both training and inference, we further propose Persistent Block-Sparse Attention (PBSA), an efficient GPU kernel that accelerates sparse attention and memory updates for low-latency, memory-efficient decoding. Experiments show that Sparse Forcing improves the VBench score by +0.26 over Self-Forcing on 5-second text-to-video generation while delivering a 1.11-1.17x decoding speedup and 42% lower peak KV-cache footprint. The gains are more pronounced on longer-horizon rollouts, delivering improved visual quality with +0.68 and +2.74 VBench improvements, and 1.22x and 1.27x speedups on 20-second and 1-minute generations, respectively.

  • 10 authors
·
Apr 22

MV-Forcing: Long Multi-View Video Generation via 4D-Grounded Spatio-Temporal Self-Forcing

Recent advances in video diffusion models have enabled either long single-view generation through temporal autoregression, or short multi-view synthesis through bidirectional attention. However, generating long, multi-view consistent videos of dynamic scenes remains unsolved. In this work, we present MV-Forcing, a framework that composes temporal and view-wise autoregression within a single diffusion model by introducing a 4D geometric bridge between sequentially generated views. Our key insight is that an autoregressive 3D reconstruction model naturally interfaces between autoregressively generated views. Given a completed source view, we reconstruct its 3D structure and render a geometric prior of the next target viewpoint, which the diffusion model refines into a high-quality video. To extend generation beyond the teacher's fixed temporal window, we introduce a joint denoising regime where both view slots are initialized from noise during training, enabling temporally unbounded generation. We distill the model via Distribution Matching Distillation with Spatio-Temporal Self-Forcing, closing the train-inference exposure bias gap for both temporal and view-sequential autoregression. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that MV-Forcing produces geometrically consistent multi-view videos of dynamic scenes at arbitrary lengths and viewpoint counts using a single few-step student model.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 5 2

Early warning signals: The charted and uncharted territories

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

  • 3 authors
·
May 29, 2013

The Cognitive Divergence: AI Context Windows, Human Attention Decline, and the Delegation Feedback Loop

This paper documents and theorises a self-reinforcing dynamic between two measurable trends: the exponential expansion of large language model (LLM) context windows and the secular contraction of human sustained-attention capacity. We term the resulting asymmetry the Cognitive Divergence. AI context windows have grown from 512 tokens in 2017 to 2,000,000 tokens by 2026 (factor ~3,906; fitted lambda = 0.59/yr; doubling time ~14 months). Over the same period, human Effective Context Span (ECS) -- a token-equivalent measure derived from validated reading-rate meta-analysis (Brysbaert, 2019) and an empirically motivated Comprehension Scaling Factor -- has declined from approximately 16,000 tokens (2004 baseline) to an estimated 1,800 tokens (2026, extrapolated from longitudinal behavioural data ending 2020 (Mark, 2023); see Section 9 for uncertainty discussion). The AI-to-human ratio grew from near parity at the ChatGPT launch (November 2022) to 556--1,111x raw and 56--111x quality-adjusted, after accounting for retrieval degradation (Liu et al., 2024; Chroma, 2025). Beyond documenting this divergence, the paper introduces the Delegation Feedback Loop hypothesis: as AI capability grows, the cognitive threshold at which humans delegate to AI falls, extending to tasks of negligible demand; the resulting reduction in cognitive practice may further attenuate the capacities already documented as declining (Gerlich, 2025; Kim et al., 2026; Kosmyna et al., 2025). Neither trend reverses spontaneously. The paper characterises the divergence statistically, reviews neurobiological mechanisms across eight peer-reviewed neuroimaging studies, presents empirical evidence bearing on the delegation threshold, and proposes a research agenda centred on a validated ECS psychometric instrument and longitudinal study of AI-mediated cognitive change.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 17

To Trust or to Think: Cognitive Forcing Functions Can Reduce Overreliance on AI in AI-assisted Decision-making

People supported by AI-powered decision support tools frequently overrely on the AI: they accept an AI's suggestion even when that suggestion is wrong. Adding explanations to the AI decisions does not appear to reduce the overreliance and some studies suggest that it might even increase it. Informed by the dual-process theory of cognition, we posit that people rarely engage analytically with each individual AI recommendation and explanation, and instead develop general heuristics about whether and when to follow the AI suggestions. Building on prior research on medical decision-making, we designed three cognitive forcing interventions to compel people to engage more thoughtfully with the AI-generated explanations. We conducted an experiment (N=199), in which we compared our three cognitive forcing designs to two simple explainable AI approaches and to a no-AI baseline. The results demonstrate that cognitive forcing significantly reduced overreliance compared to the simple explainable AI approaches. However, there was a trade-off: people assigned the least favorable subjective ratings to the designs that reduced the overreliance the most. To audit our work for intervention-generated inequalities, we investigated whether our interventions benefited equally people with different levels of Need for Cognition (i.e., motivation to engage in effortful mental activities). Our results show that, on average, cognitive forcing interventions benefited participants higher in Need for Cognition more. Our research suggests that human cognitive motivation moderates the effectiveness of explainable AI solutions.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 18, 2021

Mutual Forcing: Dual-Mode Self-Evolution for Fast Autoregressive Audio-Video Character Generation

In this work, we propose Mutual Forcing, a framework for fast autoregressive audio-video generation with long-horizon audio-video synchronization. Our approach addresses two key challenges: joint audio-video modeling and fast autoregressive generation. To ease joint audio-video optimization, we adopt a two-stage training strategy: we first train uni-modal generators and then couple them into a unified audio-video model for joint training on paired data. For streaming generation, we ask whether a native fast causal audio-video model can be trained directly, instead of following existing streaming distillation pipelines that typically train a bidirectional model first and then convert it into a causal generator through multiple distillation stages. Our answer is Mutual Forcing, which builds directly on native autoregressive model and integrates few-step and multi-step generation within a single weight-shared model, enabling self-distillation and improved training-inference consistency. The multi-step mode improves the few-step mode via self-distillation, while the few-step mode generates historical context during training to improve training-inference consistency; because the two modes share parameters, these two effects reinforce each other within a single model. Compared with prior approaches such as Self-Forcing, Mutual Forcing removes the need for an additional bidirectional teacher model, supports more flexible training sequence lengths, reduces training overhead, and allows the model to improve directly from real paired data rather than a fixed teacher. Experiments show that Mutual Forcing matches or surpasses strong baselines that require around 50 sampling steps while using only 4 to 8 steps, demonstrating substantial advantages in both efficiency and quality. The project page is available at https://mutualforcing.github.io.

  • 10 authors
·
Apr 27 3

Causal-rCM: A Unified Teacher-Forcing and Self-Forcing Open Recipe for Autoregressive Diffusion Distillation in Streaming Video Generation and Interactive World Models

Autoregressive video diffusion with causal diffusion transformers has emerged as a major paradigm for real-time streaming video generation and action-conditioned interactive world models. In this work, we extend rCM, an advanced diffusion distillation framework, to autoregressive video diffusion. The core philosophy of rCM lies in the complementarity between forward and reverse divergences, represented by consistency models (CMs) and distribution matching distillation (DMD), respectively, in diffusion distillation. This philosophy naturally carries over to the autoregressive setting, where teacher-forcing (TF) provides an offline, forward-divergence causal training paradigm, while self-forcing (SF) corresponds to an on-policy, reverse-divergence refinement. Our contributions are: (1) through extensive experiments, we show that teacher-forcing CM is currently the best complement to self-forcing DMD as an initialization strategy (2) we present the first implementation of teacher-forcing-based continuous-time CMs (e.g., sCM/MeanFlow) for autoregressive video diffusion, enabled by our custom-mask FlashAttention-2 JVP kernel, achieving 10times faster convergence compared to discrete-time CMs (dCMs) (3) we introduce Causal-rCM, a leading, unified, and scalable algorithm-infrastructure open recipe for diffusion distillation and causal training (4) we achieve state-of-the-art streaming video generation performance in both frame-wise and chunk-wise settings, using only synthetic data for training. Notably, our distilled 2-step causal Wan2.1-1.3B model achieves a VBench-T2V score of 84.63 with only 1 or 2 sampling steps. We further apply Causal-rCM to Cosmos 3, an advanced omnimodal world foundation model for physical AI with action-conditioned generation capability, enabling an interactive world model.

nvidia NVIDIA
·
Jun 23

CAMEF: Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting by Integrating Time Series Patterns and Salient Macroeconomic Announcements

Accurately forecasting the impact of macroeconomic events is critical for investors and policymakers. Salient events like monetary policy decisions and employment reports often trigger market movements by shaping expectations of economic growth and risk, thereby establishing causal relationships between events and market behavior. Existing forecasting methods typically focus either on textual analysis or time-series modeling, but fail to capture the multi-modal nature of financial markets and the causal relationship between events and price movements. To address these gaps, we propose CAMEF (Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting), a multi-modality framework that effectively integrates textual and time-series data with a causal learning mechanism and an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation technique for causal-enhanced financial forecasting. Our contributions include: (1) a multi-modal framework that captures causal relationships between policy texts and historical price data; (2) a new financial dataset with six types of macroeconomic releases from 2008 to April 2024, and high-frequency real trading data for five key U.S. financial assets; and (3) an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation strategy. We compare CAMEF to state-of-the-art transformer-based time-series and multi-modal baselines, and perform ablation studies to validate the effectiveness of the causal learning mechanism and event types.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 7, 2025

Next Forcing: Causal World Modeling with Multi-Chunk Prediction

Autoregressive video generation has emerged as a powerful paradigm for World Action Models (WAMs). However, existing approaches suffer from slow training convergence and limited converged accuracy, particularly at high frame rates, as the training supervision is confined to the current chunk without explicit signals about future dynamics; they also suffer from slow inference due to iterative video denoising. In this paper, we present Next Forcing, a multi-chunk prediction (MCP) framework for causal world modeling that enables faster training, higher accuracy, and accelerated inference. Inspired by multi-token prediction in large language models, Next Forcing introduces an MCP training objective that augments the main model with lightweight auxiliary MCP modules to simultaneously denoise video chunks at multiple future temporal horizons (next^1, next^2, next^3 chunks). These MCP modules form a causal chain across prediction depths, where intermediate features fused from multiple layers of the main model are leveraged to predict future dynamics, allowing near-future predictions to inform farther-future ones and providing dense multi-scale temporal supervision back to the main model. During training, the MCP modules significantly accelerate convergence and improve converged accuracy, especially at high frame rates: at 50 fps, Next Forcing achieves a 93.1% relative improvement over LingBot-VA at 5k training steps and 2.3x faster convergence, and establishes new state-of-the-art results on the RoboTwin benchmark (94.1/93.5% on Clean/Random). At inference, the MCP modules can be retained to predict the next video chunk in parallel with the current one, achieving 2x inference acceleration. Next Forcing also demonstrates significant improvements on PhyWorld, a benchmark evaluating adherence to physical laws in video generation, and over 50% FVD reduction on general video pretraining.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 8 2