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Oct 28

MerchantBench: Benchmarking LLM Agents for Long-Term Coherence in E-Commerce Operations

Large language model agents are increasingly evaluated as autonomous tool users, yet most benchmarks focus on bounded tasks with immediate success criteria. Real-world deployments often require Long-Term Coherence, the capacity to preserve purposeful behavior across extended horizons while adapting decisions to accumulated evidence. Evaluating this capacity requires a persistent environment in which actions constrain future choices, feedback arrives at heterogeneous delays, and incoherent behavior produces measurable cumulative effects. Seller-side e-commerce provides a suitable setting for this evaluation through recurrent and interdependent decisions over Product Sourcing, Listing and Pricing Control, Cash-Flow Management, and Mixed-Latency Feedback Adaptation. We introduce MerchantBench, a 365-day order-level simulation grounded in 98,843 real e-commerce product records and equipped with 26 tools for agent interaction. MerchantBench couples promptly observable Upstream Supplier Events with delayed Downstream Order Outcomes, requiring agents to follow individual order lifecycles and revisit earlier decisions. We evaluate eight LLMs under two agent frameworks in 48 runs, each spanning 365 simulated days. Our results reveal a substantial gap between even the latest LLMs and human participants, with the best LLM configuration attaining only 27.3\% of the mean final net assets achieved by human participants.

alibabagroup alibaba
·
Jul 30 5

Fidelity Is Not Safety: Gently-Compressed LLMs Pass Every Data-Free Quality Guard Yet Invent Procedure Steps in Agentic Execution

Practitioners accept a compressed language model once it clears a stack of data-cheap quality guards: perplexity within a small factor of the original, downstream accuracy (for example MMLU) inside a confidence interval, and data-free output-fidelity signals that compare the compressed and original network's internal representations under random probe inputs. This stack has a blind spot. Across three model families, gently-compressed models clear every guard and then invent procedure steps that were never in the instructions when they run a standard operating procedure (SOP) as an agent. The effect is operator-specific: coherent low-rank (SVD) truncation induces it, and magnitude pruning matched to the same perplexity does not. One dissociation isolates the cause. The same compressed weights that CI-win a paired output-fidelity test CI-fail the invented-step canary. The governing axis is the coherence of the compression error times its rate; the magnitude of the damage does not predict it. The data-free fidelity probe is a fidelity oracle by construction, so it cannot see this axis. We characterize the blindspot and dissociation with paired confidence intervals on a pre-registered, powered canary across three architectures. Operator-specificity replicates on all three, and the perplexity-guard evasion appears where the model admits in-guard low-rank headroom. We then give a data-free screen: a two-axis statistic of the compression error (coherent-fraction and error-rate) that flags the failing builds with fixed thresholds across architectures and matches the coherence-times-rate mechanism. Perplexity, MMLU, and fidelity acceptance do not certify agent safety. Screen gently-compressed low-rank builds before agentic deployment

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 29

The Hot Mess of AI: How Does Misalignment Scale With Model Intelligence and Task Complexity?

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 30