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Oct 30

The probabilistic world

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 4, 2020

Linear statistics for Coulomb gases: higher order cumulants

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 25, 2023

Deep Probability Estimation

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 20, 2021

Nonlinear Spectral Computing

Many machine learning algorithms rely on the Fourier transform, which is also the inner core of many analog computing devices and, specifically, of optical computing. The square of the modulus of the Fourier spectrum naturally maps onto pairwise interactions, as in the renowned Ising model, making it applicable to combinatorial optimization. Here we show how the nonlinear Fourier transform, related to integrable nonlinear partial differential equations, significantly widens the computational capability and also enables a wide variety of computing gates. We study specifically the case of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation; we introduce an input composed by ``tokens'', i.e., batches of information encoded in a multi-step potential, and we show how the nonlinear spectral computing arising in the wave propagation not only generalizes combinatorial optimization to higher order problems, but also realizes boolean gates. In the weakly nonlinear regime, nonlinearity generates higher-order interactions as perturbative corrections to the pairwise terms. In the solitonic regime, the discrete nonlinear spectrum performs digital computation through soliton generation. By using four input tokens, we demonstrate the programmability of all 256 Boolean functions of three variables, including 3-SAT instances. Our results show that integrable nonlinear propagation provides an unprecedented single physical platform for higher-order and logical computation, opening the way to a rich variety of new algorithms for analog computing, machine learning, and classical and quantum information processing.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 5

sangkuriang: A pseudo-spectral Python library for Korteweg-de Vries soliton simulation

The Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation serves as a foundational model in nonlinear wave physics, describing the balance between dispersive spreading and nonlinear steepening that gives rise to solitons. This article introduces sangkuriang, an open-source Python library for solving this equation using Fourier pseudo-spectral spatial discretization coupled with adaptive high-order time integration. The implementation leverages just-in-time (JIT) compilation for computational efficiency while maintaining accessibility for instructional purposes. Validation encompasses progressively complex scenarios including isolated soliton propagation, symmetric two-wave configurations, overtaking collisions between waves of differing amplitudes, and three-body interactions. Conservation of the classical invariants is monitored throughout, with deviations remaining small across all test cases. Measured soliton velocities conform closely to theoretical predictions based on the amplitude-velocity relationship characteristic of integrable systems. Complementary diagnostics drawn from information theory and recurrence analysis confirm that computed solutions preserve the regular phase-space structure expected for completely integrable dynamics. The solver outputs data in standard scientific formats compatible with common analysis tools and generates visualizations of spatiotemporal wave evolution. By combining numerical accuracy with practical accessibility on modest computational resources, sangkuriang offers a platform suitable for both classroom demonstrations of nonlinear wave phenomena and exploratory research into soliton dynamics.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 17 2

amangkurat: A Python Library for Symplectic Pseudo-Spectral Solution of the Idealized (1+1)D Nonlinear Klein-Gordon Equation

This study introduces amangkurat, an open-source Python library designed for the robust numerical simulation of relativistic scalar field dynamics governed by the nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation in (1+1)D spacetime. The software implements a hybrid computational strategy that couples Fourier pseudo-spectral spatial discretization with a symplectic Størmer-Verlet temporal integrator, ensuring both exponential spatial convergence for smooth solutions and long-term preservation of Hamiltonian structure. To optimize performance, the solver incorporates adaptive timestepping based on Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) stability criteria and utilizes Just-In-Time (JIT) compilation for parallelized force computation. The library's capabilities are validated across four canonical physical regimes: dispersive linear wave propagation, static topological kink preservation in phi-fourth theory, integrable breather dynamics in the sine-Gordon model, and non-integrable kink-antikink collisions. Beyond standard numerical validation, this work establishes a multi-faceted analysis framework employing information-theoretic entropy metrics (Shannon, Rényi, and Tsallis), kernel density estimation, and phase space reconstruction to quantify the distinct phenomenological signatures of these regimes. Statistical hypothesis testing confirms that these scenarios represent statistically distinguishable dynamical populations. Benchmarks on standard workstation hardware demonstrate that the implementation achieves high computational efficiency, making it a viable platform for exploratory research and education in nonlinear field theory.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 27, 2025

On-shell renormalization of sine-Gordon by the quantum inverse scattering method

In the quantum inverse scattering method, the sine-Gordon model is solved on a lattice, and its continuum and infinite-volume limits become uniform only after the length of the box is rescaled. We show that this rescaling, supplemented by an on-shell condition, defines a renormalization scheme. The whole dependence on the cut-off is absorbed into a factor Z_L multiplying the length of the box, with an exponent fixed by the scaling dimension of the vertex operator; neither the field nor the coupling β is renormalized, no subtraction scale is introduced, and the mass parameter receives a finite renormalization, fixed by requiring that the lightest breather has the mass of the boson in the linearized theory. The soliton and breather masses follow from the eigenvalues of the monodromy operator as functions of parameters that do not run, and reduce to the classical and semiclassical results as βrightarrow0. In particular, the mass ratios are produced directly from the regularized construction, while the relation between the lattice parameters and the physical scale is absorbed into Z_L and never needs to be computed. The scheme is a reparameterization of the theory which makes explicit the interplay between integrability and renormalization. We compare it with Coleman's normal ordering and with conformal perturbation theory, and we argue that it extends to ultralocal integrable theories with a massive spectrum, possibly including asymptotically free models that admit an ultralocal lattice regularization.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 30

Transducing Language Models

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 4

On the Second-Order Positive Burgers' Equation: Integrability, Lax Pair, Darboux Transformations, and Lie Symmetry Reduction

This paper derives the second-order positive Burgers' equation from the standard Burgers' hierarchy to explore its complete integrability and exact analytical solutions. We construct this higher-order nonlinear evolution equation by systematically applying the recursion operator to the classical Burgers' equation. Expanding on this structural framework, we then derive the explicit third-order equation and use Complete Bell Polynomials to generalize the n-th order hierarchy. Through the Cole-Hopf transformation, the second-order nonlinear equation rigorously maps to the linear third-order dispersion equation. We establish complete integrability by explicitly formulating the scalar Lax pair (zero-curvature representation), which allows us to directly derive the associated differential and algebraic Darboux transformations. To systematically classify explicit stationary, time-dependent traveling wave, and self-similar profiles, we apply several techniques to the linear domain: separation of variables, the Hirota perturbation method, traveling wave reduction via the Complete Discrimination System for Polynomial Method (CDSPM), and Lie similarity reduction. Crucially, our analysis demonstrates the exact finite truncation of the Hirota perturbation series. We conclude by outlining how this equation impacts the theoretical understanding of fluid dynamics, nonlinear transport phenomena, and higher-order wave propagation.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 12

Perturbative Reconstruction of Self-Adjoint Generators from Bosonic Canonical Commutation Relations: Application to the Null-Surface Formulation

We study the inverse adjoint problem for a perturbative bosonic outgoing map. Within the polynomial bosonic canonical-commutation-relation (CCR) algebra, we prove a constructive integrability theorem: order-by-order preservation of the CCRs is sufficient to reconstruct recursively a formal self-adjoint generator whose exponential implements the outgoing map by adjoint conjugation. At each order, the Baker--Campbell--Hausdorff contribution determined by previously reconstructed generators is subtracted from the outgoing coefficient, and the remaining homogeneous CCR conditions determine the next generator explicitly. We apply the construction to graviton scattering in the null-surface formulation (NSF), specialized to the flat solution-space sector with Minkowski metric, null generators, affine parameter, and cone measure. The NSF outgoing map preserves the Ashtekar radiative CCRs through (δa_3), corresponding to order (\varepsilon^2). At this order, the scalar CCR sector uniquely selects the symmetric ordering (c=1) for the nontrivial interacting kernel. The associated linear contraction, generated by the same cubic kernel, cancels the double-contraction contribution from ([δa_2,δa_2^\dagger]). The theorem then reconstructs the self-adjoint generators (δT_1) and (δT_2), providing a formal perturbative unitary implementation. The resulting canonical organization also separates the direct (2\to2) contribution into irreducible-loop, one-particle-reducible, and factorized sectors.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 21

From Entropy to Epiplexity: Rethinking Information for Computationally Bounded Intelligence

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 6

Sampling and Identity-Testing Without Approximate Tensorization of Entropy

Certain tasks in high-dimensional statistics become easier when the underlying distribution satisfies a local-to-global property called approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE). For example, the Glauber dynamics Markov chain of an ATE distribution mixes fast and can produce approximate samples in a small amount of time, since such a distribution satisfies a modified log-Sobolev inequality. Moreover, identity-testing for an ATE distribution requires few samples if the tester is given coordinate conditional access to the unknown distribution, as shown by Blanca, Chen, Štefankovič, and Vigoda (COLT 2023). A natural class of distributions that do not satisfy ATE consists of mixtures of (few) distributions that do satisfy ATE. We study the complexity of identity-testing and sampling for these distributions. Our main results are the following: 1. We show fast mixing of Glauber dynamics from a data-based initialization, with optimal sample complexity, for mixtures of distributions satisfying modified log-Sobolev inequalities. This extends work of Huang, Koehler, Lee, Mohanty, Rajaraman, Vuong, and Wu (STOC 2025, COLT 2025) for mixtures of distributions satisfying Poincaré inequalities. 2. Answering an open question posed by Blanca et al., we give efficient identity-testers for mixtures of ATE distributions in the coordinate-conditional sampling access model. We also give some simplifications and improvements to the original algorithm of Blanca et al.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 29, 2025

A structure theorem for streamed information

We identify the free half shuffle algebra of Schützenberger (1958) with an algebra of real-valued functionals on paths, where the half shuffle emulates integration of a functional against another. We then provide two, to our knowledge, new identities in arity 3 involving its commutator (area), and show that these are sufficient to recover the Zinbiel and Tortkara identities of Dzhumadil'daev (2007). We use these identities to prove that any element of the free half shuffle algebra can be expressed as a polynomial over iterated areas. Moreover, we consider minimal sets of iterated integrals defined through the recursive application of the half shuffle on Hall trees. Leveraging the duality between this set of Hall integrals and classical Hall bases of the free Lie algebra, we prove using combinatorial arguments that any element of the free half shuffle algebra can be written uniquely as a polynomial over Hall integrals. We interpret this result as a structure theorem for streamed information, loosely analogous to the unique prime factorisation of integers, allowing to split any real valued function on streamed data into two parts: a first that extracts and packages the streamed information into recursively defined atomic objects (Hall integrals), and a second that evaluates a polynomial function in these objects without further reference to the original stream. The question of whether a similar result holds if Hall integrals are replaced by Hall areas is left as an open conjecture. Finally, we construct a canonical, but to our knowledge, new decomposition of the free half shuffle algebra as shuffle power series in the greatest letter of the original alphabet with coefficients in a sub-algebra freely generated by a new alphabet with an infinite number of letters. We use this construction to provide a second proof of our structure theorem.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 29, 2023

A Machine-Checked Itô Calculus for Brownian Motion

We develop the Itô calculus of Brownian motion, machine-checked in Lean~4 over Mathlib and the BrownianMotion package. On a bounded interval [0,T] the Itô integral is built as a Hilbert-space isometry, from a predictable-rectangle π-system through the density of simple adapted processes. Realized as a process, it is a continuous L^2 martingale. One structural identity drives this: the integral at time t is the conditional-expectation projection of its terminal value onto F_t, and from it adaptedness, the martingale property, the contraction bound, and both the terminal and time-indexed Itô isometries follow as corollaries. On this integral we prove Itô's formula for C^3 functions with bounded derivatives, including the time-dependent form df = f_x,dB + (f_t + tfrac12 f_{xx}),dt, by a discrete-to-continuous argument through weighted quadratic variation with explicit L^2 remainder bounds. We then pass from the L^2 theory to the pathwise. The integral process has an almost-surely continuous modification, and its everywhere-continuous representative is a local martingale for the null-augmented Brownian filtration; gluing the bounded-horizon representatives along the half-line yields the Itô integral as a continuous local martingale on all of R_{ge 0}, the form it takes in the classical theory. To our knowledge these are the first machine-checked constructions of the Itô integral and of Itô's formula in any proof assistant, and the first to reach a pathwise-continuous local martingale. The boundary is explicit. The L^2 integral and Itô's formula are developed on [0,T] with bounded-derivative integrands; the unrestricted C^2 formula, integrators beyond brownian motion, and right-continuity of the filtration lie outside the development.

Numerical Construction of Quasi-Periodic Solutions for Nonlinear PDEs: I. Bounded Perturbation

In this paper, we propose an alternating numerical scheme for constructing quasi-periodic solutions to a class of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) with bounded perturbations, including the one-dimensional nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equations and nonlinear wave (NLW) equations under periodic and Dirichlet boundary conditions. A key observation concerning the resonant Q-equations allows us to establish directly a local diffeomorphism between the amplitudes and the drifted frequencies. This renders the proof considerably cleaner, since it avoids the Birkhoff normal form and the associated coordinate transformations required in classical KAM theory for PDEs.Unlike in the finite-dimensional setting, the lattice boxes must also include the spatial index, so that the multiscale induction has to be carried out in one additional dimension. This introduces two difficulties. First, the measure estimate for the excluded set of ``bad'' frequencies must account for the spatial index. For both the NLS and NLW equations, the linear frequencies and their differences are integers or close to integers; this allows the spatial dependence to be controlled through the modulus of the temporal index, so that the excluded measure remains under control. Second, a singular set may contain sites with the same temporal index but widely separated spatial indices, which obstructs the ``inversion implies localization'' process. For the one-dimensional NLS and NLW equations, however, such sites occur only in pairs with opposite spatial indices. They can therefore be separated by small boxes, after which the global inverse is obtained from the local inverses via the resolvent identity. Numerical experiments illustrate the scheme for nonlinear traveling and standing waves, exhibiting both the computed quasi-periodic solutions and the convergence of the iteration.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 4

Implicit Probabilistic Reasoning Does Not Reflect Explicit Answers in Large Language Models

The handling of probabilities in the form of uncertainty or partial information is an essential task for LLMs in many settings and applications. A common approach to evaluate an LLM's probabilistic reasoning capabilities is to assess its ability to answer questions pertaining to probability through the use of multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, this paradigm, which we refer to as explicit probabilistic reasoning, has been shown in the literature to yield significant limitations (e.g., sensitivity to answer ordering). In this work, we introduce an alternative approach, named implicit probabilistic reasoning, which evaluates the models' ability to integrate probabilistic reasoning into their text generation process. To achieve this, we rephrase MCQs as text-completion scenarios with a determined set of outcomes and compare the model's next-token probability assignments to the true likelihood of the outcomes. In line with previous work, we find that models exhibit solid performance in their explicit probabilistic reasoning (i.e., answers to MCQs). However, during text completion (i.e., implicit probabilistic reasoning), where the same information must be taken into account to generate text, the models' predictions often significantly diverge from the known ground truth. For instance, our evaluation method reveals that implicit probabilistic reasoning is improperly influenced by many factors, such as independent prior events, partial observations about a result, or statistical background information. All of these issues can cause erroneous results to be produced in text generation, which are not detected by conventional MCQ-based evaluation.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 10

Denotational validation of higher-order Bayesian inference

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 8, 2017

simple-idealized-1d-nlse: Pseudo-Spectral Solver for the 1D Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation

We present an open-source Python implementation of an idealized high-order pseudo-spectral solver for the one-dimensional nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation (NLSE). The solver combines Fourier spectral spatial discretization with an adaptive eighth-order Dormand-Prince time integration scheme to achieve machine-precision conservation of mass and near-perfect preservation of momentum and energy for smooth solutions. The implementation accurately reproduces fundamental NLSE phenomena including soliton collisions with analytically predicted phase shifts, Akhmediev breather dynamics, and the development of modulation instability from noisy initial conditions. Four canonical test cases validate the numerical scheme: single soliton propagation, two-soliton elastic collision, breather evolution, and noise-seeded modulation instability. The solver employs a 2/3 dealiasing rule with exponential filtering to prevent aliasing errors from the cubic nonlinearity. Statistical analysis using Shannon, R\'enyi, and Tsallis entropies quantifies the spatio-temporal complexity of solutions, while phase space representations reveal the underlying coherence structure. The implementation prioritizes code transparency and educational accessibility over computational performance, providing a valuable pedagogical tool for exploring nonlinear wave dynamics. Complete source code, documentation, and example configurations are freely available, enabling reproducible computational experiments across diverse physical contexts where the NLSE governs wave evolution, including nonlinear optics, Bose-Einstein condensates, and ocean surface waves.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 6, 2025

Causal Inference by String Diagram Surgery

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 20, 2018

Uncertainty propagation in auto-regressive random neural network models

We develop analytical and particle-based methods for uncertainty propagation in random neural network models, where both the inputs and network parameters are allowed to be random. Building on the piecewise-linear structure of the Leaky ReLU activation function, we derive a local approximation of the neural network output with respect to perturbations in both its inputs and parameters. This approximation is exact for perturbations that preserve the network activation pattern, and it allows us to compute analytical expressions for the probability density function and characteristic function of the network output, together with closed-form approximations for its mean and covariance. We extend this uncertainty propagation framework to autonomous dynamical systems whose one-step evolution map is represented by a random neural network. Repeated application of this map defines an autoregressive model, for which we derive recursive equations to propagate uncertainty in both the state and network parameters over time. These equations explicitly account for the state-parameter cross-covariance that develops under successive iterations of the network. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation demonstrate accurate uncertainty propagation through the predictability horizon and the applicability of the proposed framework to high-dimensional dynamical systems.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 19

Symbolic Density Estimators for Unnormalized Distributions

Estimating the symbolic or analytical form of probability density functions (PDFs) from observed samples is a fundamental challenge in statistical and computational modelling. This process is critical for deriving interpretable and generalizable relationships characterizing the underlying phenomenon. Traditionally, this estimation depends strongly on domain expertise and prior field-specific knowledge, with experts selecting appropriate functional forms or parametric families based on empirical evidence and theoretical understanding. The coefficients of these forms are then typically determined through parameter estimation. In this paper, we develop a framework for estimating symbolic expressions of unnormalized distributions from observed samples using domain-specific prior knowledge, such as the range of interactions and a predefined set of primitive functions. We integrate deep generative models with symbolic regression (SR), incorporating inductive biases, such as factorizing large distributions, to keep the problem tractable. The deep generative models we examine include likelihood-based models, viz., flow models, and score-based models. Experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed framework for estimating density functions for multivariate toy distributions as well as lattices from computational physics, namely, XY model and ϕ^4 theory. When applied to the renormalization problem in ϕ^4 theory, the proposed framework estimates compact symbolic approximations of the hamiltonian function at different scales directly from samples, yielding expressions that may be challenging to derive using traditional perturbative or analytic approaches in nonperturbative settings.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 6

Impact of Computation in Integral Reinforcement Learning for Continuous-Time Control

Integral reinforcement learning (IntRL) demands the precise computation of the utility function's integral at its policy evaluation (PEV) stage. This is achieved through quadrature rules, which are weighted sums of utility functions evaluated from state samples obtained in discrete time. Our research reveals a critical yet underexplored phenomenon: the choice of the computational method -- in this case, the quadrature rule -- can significantly impact control performance. This impact is traced back to the fact that computational errors introduced in the PEV stage can affect the policy iteration's convergence behavior, which in turn affects the learned controller. To elucidate how computation impacts control, we draw a parallel between IntRL's policy iteration and Newton's method applied to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. In this light, computational error in PEV manifests as an extra error term in each iteration of Newton's method, with its upper bound proportional to the computational error. Further, we demonstrate that when the utility function resides in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), the optimal quadrature is achievable by employing Bayesian quadrature with the RKHS-inducing kernel function. We prove that the local convergence rates for IntRL using the trapezoidal rule and Bayesian quadrature with a Mat\'ern kernel to be O(N^{-2}) and O(N^{-b}), where N is the number of evenly-spaced samples and b is the Mat\'ern kernel's smoothness parameter. These theoretical findings are finally validated by two canonical control tasks.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 27, 2024

Autoregressive Transformer Neural Network for Simulating Open Quantum Systems via a Probabilistic Formulation

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 11, 2020

anyakrakusuma: A Python Library for Entropic Schrödinger Bridges on Idealized Geometries

We present anyakrakusuma, an open-source Python library that solves the discrete static Schrödinger bridge problem, the entropically regularized counterpart of optimal transport, through a log-domain Sinkhorn--Knopp iteration and reconstructs the entropic interpolation between two empirical point clouds. The solver is paired with a diagnostic pipeline that characterizes the optimal coupling and the intermediate distributions through information-theoretic and geometric measures. We exercise the library on four idealized planar cases spanning a circle-to-circle dilation, a spiral-to-mixture fragmentation, a rigid reorientation of two moons, and a Lissajous-to-trefoil deformation. The log-domain formulation is necessary rather than merely convenient at the parameters studied, where the cost-to-regularization ratio reaches four hundred and the Gibbs kernel underflows double precision across most of its range; the iteration nonetheless attains a marginal residual of 10^{-9} and unit marginal fidelity in every case. Residual histories decay geometrically over approximately eight decades at per-iteration contraction factors between 0.966 and 0.976, which are local rates near the fixed point that lie many orders of magnitude below the worst-case Hilbert-metric bound. The covariance analysis recovers an imposed ninety-degree reorientation to within 0.07^circ, roughly forty times smaller than its uncertainty, across a masked interval of near-isotropy on which the principal axis is unobservable. The diagnostics are reported with explicit attention to the regimes in which each is well defined, including the differential entropy, which is meaningful only on the open interpolation interval. The presented cases are constructed rather than measured; quantitative application to empirical point clouds requires further study.

A Recursive Representation of Compatibility Matrices for Transported Differential Operators

We develop a recursive algebraic framework for the compatibility matrices arising in moving-boundary problems for the heat equation. Such matrices naturally appear in the analysis of boundary trace operators, including Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps and first-passage problems for Brownian motion. The construction is based on two recursive hierarchies: transported differential operators in the interior and boundary operators generated by successive differentiation of the boundary condition. Their interaction produces a recursive family of compatibility matrices whose size grows linearly with the order of the transported operator. The main contribution of the paper is a decomposition of every compatibility matrix into a universal reference matrix and a sequence of transport perturbations. This representation isolates the boundary geometry from the recursive transport corrections and shows that only the transport rows change at each recursive level. Consequently, the determinant of the compatibility matrix may be interpreted as the determinant of a reference matrix together with successive low-rank perturbations. The recursive construction is illustrated through explicit examples, which suggest additional algebraic structure in the reference determinants. The resulting recursive representation provides a systematic organization of compatibility matrices and establishes an algebraic foundation for future investigations of recursive determinant formulas, boundary trace operators, and Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps for moving-boundary problems.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 10