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Oct 15

Algorithm-Driven Information Similarity and Collective Action: An Experimental Study

We study how the similarity of individuals' information shapes collective action. When people draw on a common source of information, such as social media, each becomes more confident about what others have seen and will do. This can help them coordinate, but it can also tempt them to free-ride. We show that which force prevails depends on how demanding the collective goal is. In a content-moderation experiment, subjects decide whether to pay a cost to report harmful content, which is removed only if enough reports are received. We vary the similarity of group members' information, holding fixed what each learns on her own, and independently vary the removal threshold. More similar information impedes reporting when few reports suffice and facilitates it when many are required, lowering reporting by 17 percentage points under an easy threshold and raising it by 34 points under a demanding one. This confirms the central comparative static of the theory of information similarity (Basak, Deb and Kuvalekar, 2026). Elicited beliefs trace the reversal to perceived pivotality and document systematic miscalibration of it. Subjects overestimate pivotality across all regimes, and their beliefs respond to similarity in line with actual pivotality only at intermediate thresholds: easy thresholds produce unrecognized pivotality, and near-unanimous thresholds produce illusory pivotality. The two response-miscalibrated patterns coincide with welfare losses; only under aligned pivotality does greater participation translate into greater collective success and higher welfare.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 27

Stochastic Bubble Completion in de Sitter Space: Power Spectrum, Bispectrum, and Infrared Moment Hierarchies

Stochastic bubble nucleation makes the local completion time of a first-order phase transition a random spatial field. We study its power spectrum and equilateral bispectrum in Minkowski and de Sitter backgrounds, with particular emphasis on the infrared consequences of a finite transition duration. In an eternally extended de Sitter history, rare bubbles nucleated in the remote past generate an ancient-bubble tail that produces a hierarchy of infrared-sensitive spatial moments. For the two-point function, the first finite-k correction becomes tail sensitive at H/β=1/5, while the leading moment becomes singular at H/β=1/3. The corresponding three-point thresholds are H/β=1/8 and 1/6, showing that the bispectrum is more infrared sensitive than the power spectrum. For any finite starting time, however, the ancient-bubble tail is cut off, all spatial moments remain finite, and the strict infrared spectra recover the analytic white-noise limits {cal P}_τpropto k^3 and {cal B}^{rm eq}_τpropto k^6. The eternal-background thresholds instead control the duration dependence of the moment coefficients and the crossover into an intermediate tail-sensitive regime, in agreement with our numerical calculations. We further show that temporal localization of the nucleation history provides a smooth regulator of the ancient-bubble tail and restores the same analytic infrared limits. These results establish a general first-arrival framework for completion-time fluctuations and clarify how de Sitter expansion can generate distinct power-spectrum and bispectrum infrared hierarchies relevant to curvature perturbations and non-Gaussianity.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 5

CXReasonBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Structured Diagnostic Reasoning in Chest X-rays

Recent progress in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) has enabled promising applications in medical tasks, such as report generation and visual question answering. However, existing benchmarks focus mainly on the final diagnostic answer, offering limited insight into whether models engage in clinically meaningful reasoning. To address this, we present CheXStruct and CXReasonBench, a structured pipeline and benchmark built on the publicly available MIMIC-CXR-JPG dataset. CheXStruct automatically derives a sequence of intermediate reasoning steps directly from chest X-rays, such as segmenting anatomical regions, deriving anatomical landmarks and diagnostic measurements, computing diagnostic indices, and applying clinical thresholds. CXReasonBench leverages this pipeline to evaluate whether models can perform clinically valid reasoning steps and to what extent they can learn from structured guidance, enabling fine-grained and transparent assessment of diagnostic reasoning. The benchmark comprises 18,988 QA pairs across 12 diagnostic tasks and 1,200 cases, each paired with up to 4 visual inputs, and supports multi-path, multi-stage evaluation including visual grounding via anatomical region selection and diagnostic measurements. Even the strongest of 10 evaluated LVLMs struggle with structured reasoning and generalization, often failing to link abstract knowledge with anatomically grounded visual interpretation. The code is available at https://github.com/ttumyche/CXReasonBench

kaist-ai KAIST AI
·
May 23, 2025 2

Verified, not generated: expert-verified AI study materials and the distribution of learning gains in a university course

Experimental studies of generative AI in education mostly report average effects, yet field evidence shows that AI can narrow attainment gaps or widen them. We argue that the direction depends on the judgement burden, the expertise a learner must supply to screen AI output before learning from it, and that expert verification before release moves this burden from students to an accountable tutor. We test the argument in a two-cohort difference-in-differences design in which one half of a compulsory firstyear university economics course received AI-generated podcasts, FAQs and quiz-based study guides, produced with a source-grounded model and checked by a named graduate teaching assistant (170 students; 340 examination marks). Access was associated with a 2.34-mark advantage on a 50-mark component. The share of marks below the upper-second classification boundary fell by 24.7 percentage points relative to the counterfactual, effects were significant at every threshold from 23 to 31 marks and at none above, and roughly three-quarters of the average originated in the bottom quintile. The threshold estimate is robust to removing the lowest-scoring students from the pre-intervention cohort; the average effect is not. Interviews and feedback from 36 students indicate that the verification label gave students a reason to engage with AI-generated material without ending their scrutiny of it. Evaluations of AI learning resources that report only mean effects cannot detect whether the students the resources are meant to help are the ones who gain.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 4

Cascade R-CNN: Delving into High Quality Object Detection

In object detection, an intersection over union (IoU) threshold is required to define positives and negatives. An object detector, trained with low IoU threshold, e.g. 0.5, usually produces noisy detections. However, detection performance tends to degrade with increasing the IoU thresholds. Two main factors are responsible for this: 1) overfitting during training, due to exponentially vanishing positive samples, and 2) inference-time mismatch between the IoUs for which the detector is optimal and those of the input hypotheses. A multi-stage object detection architecture, the Cascade R-CNN, is proposed to address these problems. It consists of a sequence of detectors trained with increasing IoU thresholds, to be sequentially more selective against close false positives. The detectors are trained stage by stage, leveraging the observation that the output of a detector is a good distribution for training the next higher quality detector. The resampling of progressively improved hypotheses guarantees that all detectors have a positive set of examples of equivalent size, reducing the overfitting problem. The same cascade procedure is applied at inference, enabling a closer match between the hypotheses and the detector quality of each stage. A simple implementation of the Cascade R-CNN is shown to surpass all single-model object detectors on the challenging COCO dataset. Experiments also show that the Cascade R-CNN is widely applicable across detector architectures, achieving consistent gains independently of the baseline detector strength. The code will be made available at https://github.com/zhaoweicai/cascade-rcnn.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 3, 2017

When Does Bottom-up Beat Top-down in Hierarchical Community Detection?

Hierarchical clustering of networks consists in finding a tree of communities, such that lower levels of the hierarchy reveal finer-grained community structures. There are two main classes of algorithms tackling this problem. Divisive (top-down) algorithms recursively partition the nodes into two communities, until a stopping rule indicates that no further split is needed. In contrast, agglomerative (bottom-up) algorithms first identify the smallest community structure and then repeatedly merge the communities using a linkage method. In this article, we establish theoretical guarantees for the recovery of the hierarchical tree and community structure of a Hierarchical Stochastic Block Model by a bottom-up algorithm. We also establish that this bottom-up algorithm attains the information-theoretic threshold for exact recovery at intermediate levels of the hierarchy. Notably, these recovery conditions are less restrictive compared to those existing for top-down algorithms. This shows that bottom-up algorithms extend the feasible region for achieving exact recovery at intermediate levels. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data sets confirm the superiority of bottom-up algorithms over top-down algorithms. We also observe that top-down algorithms can produce dendrograms with inversions. These findings contribute to a better understanding of hierarchical clustering techniques and their applications in network analysis.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 1, 2023

Memory- and Latency-Constrained Inference of Large Language Models via Adaptive Split Computing

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved near-human performance across diverse reasoning tasks, yet their deployment on resource-constrained Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices remains impractical due to massive parameter footprints and memory-intensive autoregressive decoding. While split computing offers a promising solution by partitioning model execution between edge devices and cloud servers, existing approaches fail to address the unique challenges of autoregressive inference, particularly the iterative token generation process and expanding key-value (KV) cache requirements. This work introduces the first autoregressive-aware split computing framework designed explicitly for LLM deployment on edge devices. Our approach makes three key contributions. First, we develop one-point split compression (OPSC), a mixed-precision quantization scheme that prevents out-of-memory failures by strategically partitioning models into front-end and back-end segments with different precision levels. Second, we propose a two-stage intermediate compression pipeline that combines threshold splitting (TS) and token-wise adaptive bit quantization (TAB-Q) to preserve accuracy-critical activations while dramatically reducing communication overhead. Third, we formulate a unified optimization framework that jointly selects optimal split points, quantization settings, and sequence lengths to satisfy strict memory and latency constraints. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLMs and hardware platforms demonstrate superior performance compared to state-of-the-art quantization methods, including SmoothQuant, OmniQuant, and Atom. The framework achieves a 1.49 inference speedup and significant communication overhead reduction while maintaining or improving model accuracy.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 5, 2025

ACID: Adaptive Caching for vIDeo generation

Video diffusion models produce high-quality generations but remain slow at inference due to their sequential denoising procedure. Caching-based acceleration methods address this by reusing intermediate model outputs: leading dynamic approaches such as TeaCache, EasyCache, and DiCache accumulate a drift signal and skip expensive model evaluations when accumulated drift stays below a fixed threshold τ. This threshold controls an apparent tradeoff - raising it yields faster generation at the cost of visual quality, while lowering it preserves quality but sacrifices speed. We show this tradeoff is not fundamental; it is an artifact of holding τ constant throughout denoising. We identify the existence of critical steps - timesteps where the drift signal changes rapidly - and show that applying a low threshold selectively at these steps while caching aggressively elsewhere recovers most of the quality of conservative caching at substantially higher inference speeds. Building on this insight, we propose ACID, a lightweight, training-free wrapper that monitors the rate of change of each method's existing drift signal to dynamically switch between a low and a high threshold. ACID is signal-agnostic and modular: it requires no retraining and plugs directly into existing dynamic caching methods without modifying their core mechanisms. Evaluated across three caching methods (TeaCache, EasyCache, DiCache) and three open-source video diffusion models (HunyuanVideo, Wan 2.1, CogVideoX), ACID consistently expands the Pareto frontier of visual quality versus inference speed beyond what any fixed threshold achieves. In particular, on TeaCache and HunyuanVideo, ACID achieves up to 2.16x speedup over the no-caching baseline, and up to 38% additional speedup over the conservative fixed-threshold baseline with negligible (<0.3 dB PSNR, <0.01 SSIM, <0.01 LPIPS) quality degradation.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 15

Policy Smoothing for Provably Robust Reinforcement Learning

The study of provable adversarial robustness for deep neural networks (DNNs) has mainly focused on static supervised learning tasks such as image classification. However, DNNs have been used extensively in real-world adaptive tasks such as reinforcement learning (RL), making such systems vulnerable to adversarial attacks as well. Prior works in provable robustness in RL seek to certify the behaviour of the victim policy at every time-step against a non-adaptive adversary using methods developed for the static setting. But in the real world, an RL adversary can infer the defense strategy used by the victim agent by observing the states, actions, etc., from previous time-steps and adapt itself to produce stronger attacks in future steps. We present an efficient procedure, designed specifically to defend against an adaptive RL adversary, that can directly certify the total reward without requiring the policy to be robust at each time-step. Our main theoretical contribution is to prove an adaptive version of the Neyman-Pearson Lemma -- a key lemma for smoothing-based certificates -- where the adversarial perturbation at a particular time can be a stochastic function of current and previous observations and states as well as previous actions. Building on this result, we propose policy smoothing where the agent adds a Gaussian noise to its observation at each time-step before passing it through the policy function. Our robustness certificates guarantee that the final total reward obtained by policy smoothing remains above a certain threshold, even though the actions at intermediate time-steps may change under the attack. Our experiments on various environments like Cartpole, Pong, Freeway and Mountain Car show that our method can yield meaningful robustness guarantees in practice.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 21, 2021

RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

  • 5 authors
·
May 29

A Three-regime Model of Network Pruning

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

  • 4 authors
·
May 28, 2023

Threshold-Consistent Margin Loss for Open-World Deep Metric Learning

Existing losses used in deep metric learning (DML) for image retrieval often lead to highly non-uniform intra-class and inter-class representation structures across test classes and data distributions. When combined with the common practice of using a fixed threshold to declare a match, this gives rise to significant performance variations in terms of false accept rate (FAR) and false reject rate (FRR) across test classes and data distributions. We define this issue in DML as threshold inconsistency. In real-world applications, such inconsistency often complicates the threshold selection process when deploying commercial image retrieval systems. To measure this inconsistency, we propose a novel variance-based metric called Operating-Point-Inconsistency-Score (OPIS) that quantifies the variance in the operating characteristics across classes. Using the OPIS metric, we find that achieving high accuracy levels in a DML model does not automatically guarantee threshold consistency. In fact, our investigation reveals a Pareto frontier in the high-accuracy regime, where existing methods to improve accuracy often lead to degradation in threshold consistency. To address this trade-off, we introduce the Threshold-Consistent Margin (TCM) loss, a simple yet effective regularization technique that promotes uniformity in representation structures across classes by selectively penalizing hard sample pairs. Extensive experiments demonstrate TCM's effectiveness in enhancing threshold consistency while preserving accuracy, simplifying the threshold selection process in practical DML settings.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 8, 2023

Jointly-Learned Exit and Inference for a Dynamic Neural Network : JEI-DNN

Large pretrained models, coupled with fine-tuning, are slowly becoming established as the dominant architecture in machine learning. Even though these models offer impressive performance, their practical application is often limited by the prohibitive amount of resources required for every inference. Early-exiting dynamic neural networks (EDNN) circumvent this issue by allowing a model to make some of its predictions from intermediate layers (i.e., early-exit). Training an EDNN architecture is challenging as it consists of two intertwined components: the gating mechanism (GM) that controls early-exiting decisions and the intermediate inference modules (IMs) that perform inference from intermediate representations. As a result, most existing approaches rely on thresholding confidence metrics for the gating mechanism and strive to improve the underlying backbone network and the inference modules. Although successful, this approach has two fundamental shortcomings: 1) the GMs and the IMs are decoupled during training, leading to a train-test mismatch; and 2) the thresholding gating mechanism introduces a positive bias into the predictive probabilities, making it difficult to readily extract uncertainty information. We propose a novel architecture that connects these two modules. This leads to significant performance improvements on classification datasets and enables better uncertainty characterization capabilities.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13, 2023

Modeling of learning curves with applications to pos tagging

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 4, 2024

Detecting Arbitrary Planted Subgraphs in Random Graphs

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erdős-Rényi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an arbitrary planted subgraph Γ= Γ_n in an Erdős-Rényi random graph G(n, q_n), where the edge probability within Γ is p_n. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities p_n and q_n are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting Γ, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on Γ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of p_n and q_n as functions of n. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where q_n = Θ(n^{-α}) and p_n-q_n =Θ(q_n), with αin[0,2], as well as the critical regime where p_n=1-o(1) and q_n = Θ(n^{-α}), both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of Γ. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus farand many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of q_n.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 24, 2025

Tone Matters: The Impact of Linguistic Tone on Hallucination in VLMs

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications that require reliable visual grounding. However, these models often hallucinate details that are not present in the image to satisfy user prompts. While recent datasets and benchmarks have been introduced to evaluate systematic hallucinations in VLMs, many hallucination behaviors remain insufficiently characterized. In particular, prior work primarily focuses on object presence or absence, leaving it unclear how prompt phrasing and structural constraints can systematically induce hallucinations. In this paper, we investigate how different forms of prompt pressure influence hallucination behavior. We introduce Ghost-100, a procedurally generated dataset of synthetic scenes in which key visual details are deliberately removed, enabling controlled analysis of absence-based hallucinations. Using a structured 5-Level Prompt Intensity Framework, we vary prompts from neutral queries to toxic demands and rigid formatting constraints. We evaluate three representative open-weight VLMs: MiniCPM-V 2.6-8B, Qwen2-VL-7B, and Qwen3-VL-8B. Across all three models, hallucination rates do not increase monotonically with prompt intensity. All models exhibit reductions at higher intensity levels at different thresholds, though not all show sustained reduction under maximum coercion. These results suggest that current safety alignment is more effective at detecting semantic hostility than structural coercion, revealing model-specific limitations in handling compliance pressure. Our dataset is available at: https://github.com/bli1/tone-matters

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 10

Personalized Cancer Therapy Design: Robustness vs. Optimality

Intermittent Androgen Suppression (IAS) is a treatment strategy for delaying or even preventing time to relapse of advanced prostate cancer. IAS consists of alternating cycles of therapy (in the form of androgen suppression) and off-treatment periods. The level of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a patient's serum is frequently monitored to determine when the patient will be taken off therapy and when therapy will resume. In spite of extensive recent clinical experience with IAS, the design of an ideal protocol for any given patient remains one of the main challenges associated with effectively implementing this therapy. We use a threshold-based policy for optimal IAS therapy design that is parameterized by lower and upper PSA threshold values and is associated with a cost metric that combines clinically relevant measures of therapy success. We apply Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) to a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) model of prostate cancer evolution under IAS and derive unbiased estimators of the cost metric gradient with respect to various model and therapy parameters. These estimators are subsequently used for system analysis. By evaluating sensitivity estimates with respect to several model parameters, we identify critical parameters and demonstrate that relaxing the optimality condition in favor of increased robustness to modeling errors provides an alternative objective to therapy design for at least some patients.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 2, 2016

Optimistic Feasible Search for Closed-Loop Fair Threshold Decision-Making

Closed-loop decision-making systems (e.g., lending, screening, or recidivism risk assessment) often operate under fairness and service constraints while inducing feedback effects: decisions change who appears in the future, yielding non-stationary data and potentially amplifying disparities. We study online learning of a one-dimensional threshold policy from bandit feedback under demographic parity (DP) and, optionally, service-rate constraints. The learner observes only a scalar score each round and selects a threshold; reward and constraint residuals are revealed only for the chosen threshold. We propose Optimistic Feasible Search (OFS), a simple grid-based method that maintains confidence bounds for reward and constraint residuals for each candidate threshold. At each round, OFS selects a threshold that appears feasible under confidence bounds and, among those, maximizes optimistic reward; if no threshold appears feasible, OFS selects the threshold minimizing optimistic constraint violation. This design directly targets feasible high-utility thresholds and is particularly effective for low-dimensional, interpretable policy classes where discretization is natural. We evaluate OFS on (i) a synthetic closed-loop benchmark with stable contraction dynamics and (ii) two semi-synthetic closed-loop benchmarks grounded in German Credit and COMPAS, constructed by training a score model and feeding group-dependent acceptance decisions back into population composition. Across all environments, OFS achieves higher reward with smaller cumulative constraint violation than unconstrained and primal-dual bandit baselines, and is near-oracle relative to the best feasible fixed threshold under the same sweep procedure. Experiments are reproducible and organized with double-blind-friendly relative outputs.

  • 1 authors
·
Dec 26, 2025

Adaptive Alarm Threshold Prediction in 4G Mobile Networks: A Percentile-Guided Deep Learning Framework with Interpretable Outputs

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 3

What AI Red-Team Evaluations Can and Cannot Prove

Red-team evaluations of AI models support some claims and not others, and the boundary between the two is calculable rather than merely a matter of judgment. We define the evidential ceiling of an evaluation as the largest factor by which one result can move belief under a fixed testing budget, derive it in closed form for the benchmark null result, and use it to locate that boundary exactly. We find that above a calculable harm rate, a benchmark of modest size certifies a category to a stated evidentiary standard, and a clean sheet is then the stronger of the two possible observations, outweighing a single reproduced failure. Below that rate, no passive benchmark of feasible size provides the specified evidence of safety under the fixed scoring rule and approximately independent trial structure. The crossing between the two regimes has a closed form. The bound is not specific to benchmarks: written in terms of a procedure's hypothesis conditioned elicitation rates, it covers adaptive and automated red teaming as well, and shows that discrimination between the hypotheses rather than attack success is what determines evidential worth. Auditing eight evaluation suites against the boundary, we find that current benchmarks are adequate for high-frequency harm categories and several orders of magnitude short for rare, catastrophic ones. Safety benchmarks are not uninformative. They are informative about a specific and computable set of propositions, and the discipline they need is to state which.

apisec apisec
·
Jul 22 2

What Selects, What Reconstructs: Repairing Exemplar-Based Complex-Spectrum Separation

Exemplar methods separate a mixture by picking one learned spectrum per source and deforming it until it explains the observation, making one deformation class both reconstructor and selector. We show that the second role is empty as soon as the class can interpolate: the rule then ranks candidates on its regulariser, a choice made before the data, and the estimates sum back to the mixture whichever candidate wins. The condition is a parameter count, so the diagnosis runs before any experiment. On free per-bin deformation of complex spectra it explains the observed pathologies at once: a criterion that ranks candidates by their loudness, and half an output that is a mask on the mixture rather than an exemplar. The same theorem prescribes the repair, a selection class poorer than the reconstruction class: one complex gain and one pure delay rank the candidates, and a local combination of the best-aligned atoms, fitted jointly in closed form, rebuilds them. On MUSDB18 against the exact ceiling of the masking class, the distance between the criterion and an oracle inside its own candidate pool falls under the rigid selector from 6.2-7.7 to 0.5-2.8 dB, though only 0.9-1.2 dB of that reaches the output, and the per-frame latency of the deployed rule by a factor of 47 to 806. One lock remains, quantified: atoms are scored against the mixture, so the score carries a term for the other source that absorbs the capacity the reconstruction class gains, leaving the output 10.0 dB under the ceiling. Ranking hypotheses by the residual of a fit free enough to interpolate ranks them on the regulariser alone.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 3

Measuring Maximum Activations in Open Large Language Models

The dynamic range of activations is a first-order constraint for low-bit quantization, activation scaling, and stable LLM inference. Prior work characterized outlier features and massive activations on pre-2024 LLaMA-style models, and the downstream activation-quantization stack inherits that picture without revisiting it for the post-LLaMA open-model boom. We ask the deployment-oriented question: how large can activations get in modern open LLMs, and how does this magnitude vary across families, generations, and training stages? Under a unified pipeline (5,000-sample multi-domain corpus, family-specific tokenization, identical hooks across embeddings, hidden states, attention, MLP/MoE, SwiGLU gates, and final norm), we measure global and layerwise maxima on 27 checkpoints from 8 open families spanning dense, MoE, vision-language, intermediate-training, and instruction-tuned variants. We find that (i) global maxima span over nearly four orders of magnitude at comparable parameter counts, with Qwen3.5 and MoE checkpoints in the 10^2 to 10^3 range and Gemma3-27B-it reaching ~7 x 10^5; (ii) cross-family and cross-generation comparisons break simple monotonic scaling; and (iii) MoE checkpoints exhibit 14.0-23.4x lower peaks than matched-scale dense counterparts, while the residual stream carries the global maximum in 22/24 checkpoints. A lightweight INT-8 sanity check shows that measured maxima co-vary with low-bit reconstruction error via activation-scale selection. We conclude that maximum activation magnitude is a model property tied to family, architecture, and training stage - not a simple byproduct of size - and should be measured and reported alongside any open-weight release before low-bit deployment. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/clx1415926/Max_act_llm.

baidu BAIDU
·
May 14 2

What Can a Leaderboard Certify? Compositional Controllability for Fair Evaluation and Training of Biomedical Literature-Review Agents

Leaderboards rank long-horizon agents by their final outputs. Yet a higher score alone does not establish whether two systems are comparable or which stage accounts for the difference. Unequal evidence, inputs, or budgets can affect scores, and statistical corrections do not remove this mismatch. We introduce compositional controllability to address these questions. A comparison window covers one stage, several stages, or the whole agent. Our central result bounds the gap between observed and controlled score differences using only nuisance outside the window. This yields an admissibility test applied before scores are inspected. Inadmissible comparisons are refused. For admissible pairs, an ordering is certified only when the score gap exceeds the combined sampling and nuisance radii; otherwise, it remains undecided. These decisions give each system a rank interval. We introduce BioLitBench, a benchmark of 2,042 biomedical articles represented as structured claim graphs. Among seven published pipelines, a conventional statistical analysis declares a winner in 14 of 21 pairwise comparisons. Yet the top-ranked system alone received the target review's bibliography. To isolate pipeline performance, our test requires matched inputs and a fixed backbone model. It refuses 11 of the 21 comparisons, including every comparison involving the top-ranked system. Seven of the 14 conventional conclusions fall within these refused pairs. The same comparison windows support stage-level training. We train SCRIBE on Qwen3.8-27B using rewards measured at each stage's exit. Under matched evidence, SCRIBE achieves a certified rank interval of [1,2], with certified advantages over all evaluated published pipelines and the evaluated Claude and OpenAI agents. Under same pool, SCRIBE matches the strongest published retriever and is certified above three published pipelines.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 25

The Slepian model based independent interval approximation of persistency and zero-level exceedance distributions

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 3, 2024

Broad-band High-Energy Resolution Hard X-ray Spectroscopy using Transition Edge Sensors at SPring-8

We have succeeded in operating a transition-edge sensor (TES) spectrometer and evaluating its performance at the SPring-8 synchrotron X-ray light source. The TES spectrometer consists of a 240 pixel National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) TES system, and 220 pixels are operated simultaneously with an energy resolution of 4~eV at 6~keV at a rate of about 1~c/s/pixel. The tolerance for high count rates is evaluated in terms of energy resolution and live time fraction, leading to an empirical compromise of about 2 x 10^3 c/s/all pixels with an energy resolution of 5 eV at 6 keV. By utilizing the TES's wide-band spectroscopic capability, simultaneous multi-element analysis is demonstrated for a standard sample. We conducted X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) analysis in fluorescence mode using the TES spectrometer. The excellent energy resolution of the TES enabled us to detect weak fluorescence lines from dilute samples and trace elements that have previously been difficult to resolve due to the nearly overlapping emission lines of other dominant elements. The neighboring lines of As K alpha and Pb L alpha2 of the standard sample were clearly resolved and the XANES of Pb L alpha2 was obtained. Moreover, the X-ray spectrum from the small amount of Fe in aerosols was distinguished from the spectrum of a blank target, which helps us to understand the targets and the environment. These results are the first important step for the application of high resolution TES-based spectroscopy at hard X-ray synchrotron facilities.

  • 43 authors
·
Apr 22

Online Flow Time Minimization with Gradually Revealed Jobs

We consider the problem of online preemptive scheduling on a single machine to minimize the total flow time. In clairvoyant scheduling, where job processing times are revealed upon arrival, the Shortest Remaining Processing Time (SRPT) algorithm is optimal. In practice, however, exact processing times are often unknown. At the opposite extreme, non-clairvoyant scheduling, in which processing times are revealed only upon completion, suffers from strong lower bounds on the competitive ratio. This motivates the study of intermediate information models. We introduce a new model in which processing times are revealed gradually during execution. Each job consists of a sequence of operations, and the processing time of an operation becomes known only after the preceding one completes. This models many scheduling scenarios that arise in computing systems. Our main result is a deterministic O(m^2)-competitive algorithm, where m is the maximum number of operations per job. More specifically, we prove a refined competitive ratio in O(m_1 cdot m_2), where m_1 and m_2 are instance-dependent parameters describing the operation size structure. Our algorithm and analysis build on recent advancements in robust flow time minimization (SODA '26), where jobs arrive with estimated sizes. However, in our setting we have no bounded estimate on a job's processing time. Thus, we design a highly adaptive algorithm that gradually explores a job's operations while working on them, and groups them into virtual chunks whose size can be well-estimated. This is a crucial ingredient of our result and requires a much more careful analysis compared to the robust setting. We also provide lower bounds showing that our bounds are essentially best possible. For the special case of scheduling with uniform obligatory tests, we show that SRPT at the operation level is 2-competitive, which is best possible.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 13

Training LLMs to Enforce Multi-Level Instruction Hierarchies via Gravity-Weighted Direct Preference Optimization

Production LLMs receive instructions from sources with very different levels of trust, yet attend to every token with uniform architectural privilege. This is the structural vulnerability that enables malicious prompt injections and, more broadly, leaves models without a principled way to resolve conflicts between legitimate but competing instructions. A common training-based response is to teach models an explicit instruction hierarchy; existing approaches, however, formalize hierarchies of only three or four levels, treat all violations as equally severe, and rarely evaluate the full set of pairwise level interactions. We formalize a k-level instruction hierarchy problem and instantiate it for k=5, yielding ten pairwise priority relations that a compliant model must enforce. We then introduce Gravity-Weighted DPO (GW-DPO), a preference-optimization objective whose per-sample offset scales with the structural distance between conflicting levels under a linear or bilateral schedule, the latter weighting severity by both the privilege gap and the privilege of the victim level. Combined with hierarchy-specific delimiter tokens (Chen et al., 2025) and Instructional Segment Embeddings (ISE; Wu et al., 2025), GW-DPO with the bilateral schedule Pareto-improves over standard DPO and the linear variant on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, raising macro pairwise priority adherence while keeping over-refusal at half the standard DPO rate. Ablations isolate ISE as a refusal-threshold calibrator and recast five- versus three-level training as a generality-specialization tradeoff.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 8