Daily Papers

Inertial odometry (IO) using strap-down inertial measurement units (IMUs) is critical in many robotic applications where precise orientation and position tracking are essential. Prior kinematic motion model-based IO methods often use a simplified linearized IMU noise model and thus usually encounter difficulties in modeling non-deterministic errors arising from environmental disturbances and mechanical defects. In contrast, data-driven IO methods struggle to accurately model the sensor motions, often leading to generalizability and interoperability issues. To address these challenges, we present AirIMU, a hybrid approach to estimate the uncertainty, especially the non-deterministic errors, by data-driven methods and increase the generalization abilities using model-based methods. We demonstrate the adaptability of AirIMU using a full spectrum of IMUs, from low-cost automotive grades to high-end navigation grades. We also validate its effectiveness on various platforms, including hand-held devices, vehicles, and a helicopter that covers a trajectory of 262 kilometers. In the ablation study, we validate the effectiveness of our learned uncertainty in an IMU-GPS pose graph optimization experiment, achieving a 31.6\% improvement in accuracy. Experiments demonstrate that jointly training the IMU noise correction and uncertainty estimation synergistically benefits both tasks.

Consumer smart devices observe the same human motion from different body locations, yet existing inertial-localization benchmarks rarely provide synchronized heterogeneous wearables with device-specific motion ground truth. We present CoWear, a dataset and reference framework for collaborative inertial localization using a smartphone, smartwatch, and smart glasses. The dataset contains over 30 participants, over 300 walking sessions, and more than 30 hours and 100 km of aggregate device trajectories, with each device individually tracked by motion capture. To enable collaboration across distinct body motions, we train role-specific estimators to predict the displacement of a common reference device over synchronized temporal windows. Their predictions are transformed to the world frame using gyroscope integration and fused according to learned uncertainty. Experiments using phone, glasses, and watch as reference targets show that multi-device fusion consistently improves both displacement and trajectory rollout accuracy over individual-device estimation. CoWear provides a dataset and reproducible baseline for studying collaborative inertial localization across heterogeneous consumer wearables.

We propose the MAC-VO, a novel learning-based stereo VO that leverages the learned metrics-aware matching uncertainty for dual purposes: selecting keypoint and weighing the residual in pose graph optimization. Compared to traditional geometric methods prioritizing texture-affluent features like edges, our keypoint selector employs the learned uncertainty to filter out the low-quality features based on global inconsistency. In contrast to the learning-based algorithms that model the scale-agnostic diagonal weight matrix for covariance, we design a metrics-aware covariance model to capture the spatial error during keypoint registration and the correlations between different axes. Integrating this covariance model into pose graph optimization enhances the robustness and reliability of pose estimation, particularly in challenging environments with varying illumination, feature density, and motion patterns. On public benchmark datasets, MAC-VO outperforms existing VO algorithms and even some SLAM algorithms in challenging environments. The covariance map also provides valuable information about the reliability of the estimated poses, which can benefit decision-making for autonomous systems.

We consider the unsupervised scene adaptation problem of learning from both labeled source data and unlabeled target data. Existing methods focus on minoring the inter-domain gap between the source and target domains. However, the intra-domain knowledge and inherent uncertainty learned by the network are under-explored. In this paper, we propose an orthogonal method, called memory regularization in vivo to exploit the intra-domain knowledge and regularize the model training. Specifically, we refer to the segmentation model itself as the memory module, and minor the discrepancy of the two classifiers, i.e., the primary classifier and the auxiliary classifier, to reduce the prediction inconsistency. Without extra parameters, the proposed method is complementary to the most existing domain adaptation methods and could generally improve the performance of existing methods. Albeit simple, we verify the effectiveness of memory regularization on two synthetic-to-real benchmarks: GTA5 -> Cityscapes and SYNTHIA -> Cityscapes, yielding +11.1% and +11.3% mIoU improvement over the baseline model, respectively. Besides, a similar +12.0% mIoU improvement is observed on the cross-city benchmark: Cityscapes -> Oxford RobotCar.

Large language models are now embedded in everyday writing workflows, making reliable AI-generated text detection important for academic integrity, content moderation, and provenance tracking. In practice, however, a detector must do more than achieve high aggregate AUROC on clean, in-distribution human and AI text: it should remain robust to attacks and adversarial rewrites, transfer to unseen generators and domains, and operate at low false-positive rates (FPR). Most existing detectors optimize a single AI/Human objective, giving the representation little incentive to learn generator, attack, or domain structure once the binary task saturates. We introduce MELD (Multi-Task Equilibrated Learning Detector), a deployable detector for AI-generated text that enriches binary detection with auxiliary supervision. MELD attaches generator-family, attack-type, and source-domain heads to a shared encoder, and balances the four losses with learned homoscedastic uncertainty weights. To improve robustness, an EMA teacher predicts on clean inputs while an attack-augmented student is distilled toward the teacher. MELD further uses a hard-negative pairwise ranking loss to enlarge the score margin between AI-generated texts and the most confusable human texts. At inference, all auxiliary heads are discarded, giving MELD the same interface and cost as a standard detector. On the public RAID leaderboard, MELD is the strongest open-source detector and is competitive with leading commercial models, especially under attack and at low FPR. Across standard held-out benchmarks, MELD matches or outperforms supervised baselines. We further introduce MELD-eval, a held-out evaluation pool built from recent chat models released by four major LLM providers. Without additional finetuning, MELD achieves 99.9% TPR at 1% FPR on MELD-eval, while many baselines degrade sharply.

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

A key challenge in the field of reinforcement learning is to develop agents that behave cautiously in novel situations. It is generally impossible to anticipate all situations that an autonomous system may face or what behavior would best avoid bad outcomes. An agent that can learn to be cautious would overcome this challenge by discovering for itself when and how to behave cautiously. In contrast, current approaches typically embed task-specific safety information or explicit cautious behaviors into the system, which is error-prone and imposes extra burdens on practitioners. In this paper, we present both a sequence of tasks where cautious behavior becomes increasingly non-obvious, as well as an algorithm to demonstrate that it is possible for a system to learn to be cautious. The essential features of our algorithm are that it characterizes reward function uncertainty without task-specific safety information and uses this uncertainty to construct a robust policy. Specifically, we construct robust policies with a k-of-N counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) subroutine given learned reward function uncertainty represented by a neural network ensemble. These policies exhibit caution in each of our tasks without any task-specific safety tuning. Our code is available at https://github.com/montaserFath/Learning-to-be-Cautious

Accurate protein-ligand binding affinity prediction is central to computational drug discovery, yet modern docking engines frequently disagree without indicating which prediction to trust. Consensus scoring and ensemble methods improve mean accuracy but treat all predictions identically without interpretable confidence measures or uncertainty decomposition, ignoring the chemical context of each protein-ligand pair. To address this limitation, we introduce RELIABLE-BA (RELIABiLity-aware Evidential fusion for Binding Affinity), an evidential framework for multi-engine binding affinity prediction. Our model comprises three steps: (1) modeling each engine as an evidential expert via Normal-Inverse-Gamma distributions, (2) scaling epistemic uncertainty through learned reliability from molecular context while preserving each expert's predictive mean, and (3) fusing experts through closed-form aggregation that captures both individual uncertainty and inter-engine disagreement. Experiments on the PDBBind and BDB2020+ benchmarks demonstrate competitive point prediction with substantially improved uncertainty calibration, and additional validation on the SARS-CoV-2 Mpro dataset and 5HT2A receptor demonstrates applicability to clinically relevant drug targets. Crucially, these uncertainty estimates enable reliable filtering of protein-ligand pairs, reducing prediction error by up to 25% when retaining only high-confidence pairs. To our knowledge, RELIABLE-BA is the first multi-engine binding affinity prediction framework to combine evidential fusion with context-dependent reliability, offering a principled path toward trustworthy AI-guided drug discovery. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yongchand/RELIABLE-BA.

Hallucinations in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs for Question Answering (QA) tasks can critically undermine their real-world reliability. This paper introduces a methodology for robust, one-shot hallucination detection, specifically designed for scenarios with limited data access, such as interacting with black-box LLM APIs that typically expose only a few top candidate log-probabilities per token. Our approach derives uncertainty indicators directly from these readily available log-probabilities generated during non-greedy decoding. We first derive an Entropy Production Rate (EPR) that offers baseline performance, later augmented with supervised learning. Our learned model leverages the entropic contributions of the accessible top-ranked tokens within a single generated sequence, without multiple re-runs per query. Evaluated across diverse QA datasets and multiple LLMs, this estimator significantly improves token-level hallucination detection over state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, high performance is demonstrated using only the typically small set of available log-probabilities (e.g., top-10 per token), confirming its practical efficiency and suitability for API-constrained deployments. This work provides a lightweight technique to enhance the trustworthiness of LLM responses, at the token level, after a single generation pass, for QA and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Our experiments confirmed the performance of our method against existing approaches on public dataset as well as for a financial framework analyzing annual company reports.

LiDAR-camera fusion enhances 3D panoptic segmentation by leveraging camera images to complement sparse LiDAR scans, but it also introduces a critical failure mode. Under adverse conditions, degradation or failure of the camera sensor can significantly compromise the reliability of the perception system. To address this problem, we introduce UP-Fuse, a novel uncertainty-aware fusion framework in the 2D range-view that remains robust under camera sensor degradation, calibration drift, and sensor failure. Raw LiDAR data is first projected into the range-view and encoded by a LiDAR encoder, while camera features are simultaneously extracted and projected into the same shared space. At its core, UP-Fuse employs an uncertainty-guided fusion module that dynamically modulates cross-modal interaction using predicted uncertainty maps. These maps are learned by quantifying representational divergence under diverse visual degradations, ensuring that only reliable visual cues influence the fused representation. The fused range-view features are decoded by a novel hybrid 2D-3D transformer that mitigates spatial ambiguities inherent to the 2D projection and directly predicts 3D panoptic segmentation masks. Extensive experiments on Panoptic nuScenes, SemanticKITTI, and our introduced Panoptic Waymo benchmark demonstrate the efficacy and robustness of UP-Fuse, which maintains strong performance even under severe visual corruption or misalignment, making it well suited for robotic perception in safety-critical settings.

Longitudinal modelling of Alzheimer's disease progression is clinically useful only if it can describe not just the most likely next diagnosis, but how a patient may evolve over time and how reliable that forecast is. Most deep learning approaches reduce this problem to single-step classification, treating cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia as flat categories while providing limited insight into how uncertainty accumulates across future visits. We propose a probabilistic framework that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. A Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder is adapted with a CORAL ordinal output layer, asymmetric loss weighting, and converter oversampling to respect disease-stage ordering and improve sensitivity to MCI-to-dementia transitions. Conditioned on the learned patient-context representation, an autoregressive Mixture Density Network generates five-year probabilistic trajectories for diagnosis state, CDR Sum of Boxes, MMSE orientation, and hippocampal volume. On ADNI, the model outperforms linear, recurrent, and transformer baselines for next-visit diagnosis prediction, with the strongest gains on MCI-versus-dementia discrimination. Generated trajectories achieve near-nominal 90% credible interval coverage, widening uncertainty across the forecast horizon, and biomarker dynamics consistent with expected Alzheimer's disease progression. We further separate aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty using analytic mixture variance and a five-member bootstrap ensemble, which provides the strongest encoder diversity and output-level epistemic signal. Epistemic uncertainty is higher for rare progression archetypes, MCI and dementia patients, and under external evaluation on OASIS-3, where it increases alongside prediction error.

Autonomous driving requires an understanding of the static environment from sensor data. Learned Bird's-Eye View (BEV) encoders are commonly used to fuse multiple inputs, and a vector decoder predicts a vectorized map representation from the latent BEV grid. However, traditional map construction models provide deterministic point estimates, failing to capture uncertainty and the inherent ambiguities of real-world environments, such as occlusions and missing lane markings. We propose MapDiffusion, a novel generative approach that leverages the diffusion paradigm to learn the full distribution of possible vectorized maps. Instead of predicting a single deterministic output from learned queries, MapDiffusion iteratively refines randomly initialized queries, conditioned on a BEV latent grid, to generate multiple plausible map samples. This allows aggregating samples to improve prediction accuracy and deriving uncertainty estimates that directly correlate with scene ambiguity. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that MapDiffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance in online map construction, surpassing the baseline by 5% in single-sample performance. We further show that aggregating multiple samples consistently improves performance along the ROC curve, validating the benefit of distribution modeling. Additionally, our uncertainty estimates are significantly higher in occluded areas, reinforcing their value in identifying regions with ambiguous sensor input. By modeling the full map distribution, MapDiffusion enhances the robustness and reliability of online vectorized HD map construction, enabling uncertainty-aware decision-making for autonomous vehicles in complex environments.

Root cause analysis (RCA) in complex systems is challenging due to error propagation across multiple variables, the need for structural causal knowledge, and the computational cost of inference at test time. We introduce PRIM (Prior-fitted Root cause Identification with Meta-learning), a causal meta-learning approach that frames RCA as a Bayesian inference task over a synthetic prior of causal models. By marginalising out structural uncertainty, PRIM implicitly identifies changes in the data-generating mechanism between baseline and anomalous periods. In doing so, PRIM infers distributional differences without explicit statistical testing, and implicitly learns causal structure without model fitting at test time. Following the simulation-based meta-learning paradigm of prior-fitted networks, PRIM uses a Model-Averaged Causal Estimation (MACE) transformer neural process that jointly attends over observational and anomalous samples and the causal structure of nodes, enabling zero-shot inference in 17,ms for systems with up to 100 variables. Across synthetic benchmarks and two realistic benchmark datasets, PetShop and CausRCA, PRIM is competitive with methods that are aware of the system's causal graphical structure a priori while outperforming graph-unaware methods on several tasks. Lightweight fine-tuning to specific domains and data dynamics improves performance further.

Visual navigation is a fundamental problem in embodied AI, yet practical deployments demand long-horizon planning capabilities to address multi-objective tasks. A major bottleneck is data scarcity: policies learned from limited data often overfit and fail to generalize OOD. Existing neural network-based agents typically increase architectural complexity that paradoxically become counterproductive in the small-sample regime. This paper introduce NeuRO, a integrated learning-to-optimize framework that tightly couples perception networks with downstream task-level robust optimization. Specifically, NeuRO addresses core difficulties in this integration: (i) it transforms noisy visual predictions under data scarcity into convex uncertainty sets using Partially Input Convex Neural Networks (PICNNs) with conformal calibration, which directly parameterize the optimization constraints; and (ii) it reformulates planning under partial observability as a robust optimization problem, enabling uncertainty-aware policies that transfer across environments. Extensive experiments on both unordered and sequential multi-object navigation tasks demonstrate that NeuRO establishes SoTA performance, particularly in generalization to unseen environments. Our work thus presents a significant advancement for developing robust, generalizable autonomous agents.

Large pretrained models, coupled with fine-tuning, are slowly becoming established as the dominant architecture in machine learning. Even though these models offer impressive performance, their practical application is often limited by the prohibitive amount of resources required for every inference. Early-exiting dynamic neural networks (EDNN) circumvent this issue by allowing a model to make some of its predictions from intermediate layers (i.e., early-exit). Training an EDNN architecture is challenging as it consists of two intertwined components: the gating mechanism (GM) that controls early-exiting decisions and the intermediate inference modules (IMs) that perform inference from intermediate representations. As a result, most existing approaches rely on thresholding confidence metrics for the gating mechanism and strive to improve the underlying backbone network and the inference modules. Although successful, this approach has two fundamental shortcomings: 1) the GMs and the IMs are decoupled during training, leading to a train-test mismatch; and 2) the thresholding gating mechanism introduces a positive bias into the predictive probabilities, making it difficult to readily extract uncertainty information. We propose a novel architecture that connects these two modules. This leads to significant performance improvements on classification datasets and enables better uncertainty characterization capabilities.

Rate control algorithms are at the heart of video conferencing platforms, determining target bitrates that match dynamic network characteristics for high quality. Recent data-driven strategies have shown promise for this challenging task, but the performance degradation they introduce during training has been a nonstarter for many production services, precluding adoption. This paper aims to bolster the practicality of data-driven rate control by presenting an alternative avenue for experiential learning: leveraging purely existing telemetry logs produced by the incumbent algorithm in production. We observe that these logs contain effective decisions, although often at the wrong times or in the wrong order. To realize this approach despite the inherent uncertainty that log-based learning brings (i.e., lack of feedback for new decisions), our system, Mowgli, combines a variety of robust learning techniques (i.e., conservatively reasoning about alternate behavior to minimize risk and using a richer model formulation to account for environmental noise). Across diverse networks (emulated and real-world), Mowgli outperforms the widely deployed GCC algorithm, increasing average video bitrates by 15-39% while reducing freeze rates by 60-100%.

Driven by advancements in deep learning, computer-aided diagnoses have made remarkable progress. However, outside controlled laboratory settings, algorithms may encounter several challenges. In the medical domain, these difficulties often stem from limited data availability due to ethical and legal restrictions, as well as the high cost and time required for expert annotations-especially in the face of emerging or rare diseases. In this context, open-set recognition plays a vital role by identifying whether a sample belongs to one of the known classes seen during training or should be rejected as an unknown. Recent studies have shown that features learned in the later stages of deep neural networks are observed to cluster around their class means, which themselves are arranged as individual vertices of a regular simplex [32]. The proposed method introduces a loss function designed to reject samples of unknown classes effectively by penalizing open space regions using auxiliary datasets. This approach achieves significant performance gain across four MedMNIST datasets-BloodMNIST, OCTMNIST, DermaMNIST, TissueMNIST and a publicly available skin dataset [29] outperforming state-of-the-art techniques.

Perceptual similarity scores that align with human vision are critical for both training and evaluating computer vision models. Deep perceptual losses, such as LPIPS, achieve good alignment but rely on complex, highly non-linear discriminative features with unknown invariances, while hand-crafted measures like SSIM are interpretable but miss key perceptual properties. We introduce the Structured Uncertainty Similarity Score (SUSS); it models each image through a set of perceptual components, each represented by a structured multivariate Normal distribution. These are trained in a generative, self-supervised manner to assign high likelihood to human-imperceptible augmentations. The final score is a weighted sum of component log-probabilities with weights learned from human perceptual datasets. Unlike feature-based methods, SUSS learns image-specific linear transformations of residuals in pixel space, enabling transparent inspection through decorrelated residuals and sampling. SUSS aligns closely with human perceptual judgments, shows strong perceptual calibration across diverse distortion types, and provides localized, interpretable explanations of its similarity assessments. We further demonstrate stable optimization behavior and competitive performance when using SUSS as a perceptual loss for downstream imaging tasks.

Accurate estimation of uncertainty in deep learning is critical for deploying models in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis and autonomous decision-making, where overconfident predictions can lead to harmful outcomes. In practice, understanding the reason behind a model's uncertainty and the type of uncertainty it represents can support risk-aware decisions, enhance user trust, and guide additional data collection. However, many existing methods only address a single type of uncertainty or require modifications and retraining of the base model, making them difficult to adopt in real-world systems. We introduce CUPID (Comprehensive Uncertainty Plug-in estImation moDel), a general-purpose module that jointly estimates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining the base model. CUPID can be flexibly inserted into any layer of a pretrained network. It models aleatoric uncertainty through a learned Bayesian identity mapping and captures epistemic uncertainty by analyzing the model's internal responses to structured perturbations. We evaluate CUPID across a range of tasks, including classification, regression, and out-of-distribution detection. The results show that it consistently delivers competitive performance while offering layer-wise insights into the origins of uncertainty. By making uncertainty estimation modular, interpretable, and model-agnostic, CUPID supports more transparent and trustworthy AI. Related code and data are available at https://github.com/a-Fomalhaut-a/CUPID.

Sparse rewards and heterogeneous task sequences remain persistent challenges in Reinforcement Learning (RL), often resulting in slow convergence, weak generalization, and inefficient exploration. We propose Uncertainty-Aware LLM-Guided Policy Shaping (ULPS), a novel framework that integrates a calibrated Large Language Model (LLM) into the RL training loop to provide structured, uncertainty-modulated behavioral guidance. ULPS employs an A*-based oracle to synthesize optimal symbolic trajectories, which are used to fine-tune a BERT-based language model. During training, this model supplies action suggestions whose influence is conditioned on epistemic uncertainty estimated via Monte Carlo (MC) dropout. An entropy-based blending mechanism adaptively balances LLM guidance and the learned policy (via Proximal Policy Optimization, PPO), allowing the agent to prioritize reliable priors while preserving adaptability. We evaluate ULPS on the MiniGridUnlockPickup benchmark and observe consistent improvements in success rate, reward efficiency, and sample complexity over unguided, uncalibrated, and standard RL baselines. ULPS achieves more than 9% improvement in execution accuracy after fine-tuning, requires fewer environment interactions, and yields higher reward AUC. Our results demonstrate that integrating symbolic A* trajectories, pretrained language priors, and uncertainty-aware control offers a principled and effective approach to multi-task reinforcement learning in sparse-reward domains, with potential extensibility to partially observable and multi-agent settings.

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the embedding space. Often the distance between points is used as a proxy for match confidence. However, this can fail to represent uncertainty arising when the input is ambiguous, e.g., due to occlusion or blurriness. This work addresses this issue and explicitly models the uncertainty by hedging the location of each input in the embedding space. We introduce the hedged instance embedding (HIB) in which embeddings are modeled as random variables and the model is trained under the variational information bottleneck principle. Empirical results on our new N-digit MNIST dataset show that our method leads to the desired behavior of hedging its bets across the embedding space upon encountering ambiguous inputs. This results in improved performance for image matching and classification tasks, more structure in the learned embedding space, and an ability to compute a per-exemplar uncertainty measure that is correlated with downstream performance.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models (LLMs) aims to provide reliable measures of predictive confidence, yet current methods are often unstable under meaning-preserving perturbations. Semantically equivalent paraphrases can induce substantial variability in predictive confidence, even for methods with formal guarantees, such as conformal prediction. To address this issue, we propose a paraphrase-aware UQ framework robust to semantic rewordings. Our approach trains a lightweight proxy model on LLM hidden states and aggregates its predictions across paraphrases to construct label-wise nonconformity scores. Under score exchangeability, conformal calibration retains marginal coverage. This guarantee can also hold under test-only rewording, provided that the paraphrase pipeline satisfies an additional distributional alignment condition. We evaluate three settings (normal, fully reworded, and semi-reworded) which apply rewording to neither dataset, both calibration and test datasets, or only the test dataset, respectively. Across seven multiple-choice QA benchmarks and multiple model families, our method produces compact prediction sets with empirical coverage generally near the nominal target, even in the semi-reworded setting. Ablation studies show that the learned proxy accounts for most of the reduction in set size, while paraphrase-augmented training and inference-time aggregation improve stability under rewording. Code is available at https://github.com/Raina-Xin/PA_Score.

Recent advances in aligning Large Language Models with human preferences have benefited from larger reward models and better preference data. However, most of these methodologies rely on the accuracy of the reward model. The reward models used in Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) are typically learned from small datasets using stochastic optimization algorithms, making them prone to high variability. We illustrate the inconsistencies between reward models empirically on numerous open-source datasets. We theoretically show that the fluctuation of the reward models can be detrimental to the alignment problem because the derived policies are more overfitted to the reward model and, hence, are riskier if the reward model itself is uncertain. We use concentration of measure to motivate an uncertainty-aware, conservative algorithm for policy optimization. We show that such policies are more risk-averse in the sense that they are more cautious of uncertain rewards. We theoretically prove that our proposed methodology has less risk than the vanilla method. We corroborate our theoretical results with experiments based on designing an ensemble of reward models. We use this ensemble of reward models to align a language model using our methodology and observe that our empirical findings match our theoretical predictions.

Modeling dynamic 3D environments from LiDAR sequences is central to building reliable 4D worlds for autonomous driving and embodied AI. Existing generative frameworks, however, often treat all spatial regions uniformly, overlooking the varying uncertainty across real-world scenes. This uniform generation leads to artifacts in complex or ambiguous regions, limiting realism and temporal stability. In this work, we present U4D, an uncertainty-aware framework for 4D LiDAR world modeling. Our approach first estimates spatial uncertainty maps from a pretrained segmentation model to localize semantically challenging regions. It then performs generation in a "hard-to-easy" manner through two sequential stages: (1) uncertainty-region modeling, which reconstructs high-entropy regions with fine geometric fidelity, and (2) uncertainty-conditioned completion, which synthesizes the remaining areas under learned structural priors. To further ensure temporal coherence, U4D incorporates a mixture of spatio-temporal (MoST) block that adaptively fuses spatial and temporal representations during diffusion. Extensive experiments show that U4D produces geometrically faithful and temporally consistent LiDAR sequences, advancing the reliability of 4D world modeling for autonomous perception and simulation.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in critical domains, where their susceptibility to hallucinations makes reliable and interpretable uncertainty quantification essential. We introduce the concept of mechanistic uncertainty, which characterizes uncertainty through the stability of the internal mechanisms supporting a model's response. We propose the causal robustness margin, defined as the minimum internal intervention required to deviate the model's output, and operationalize it using Jacobian Lens (Jlens) concept steering vectors. Across three open-source models and five question-answering datasets, we show incorrect and uncertain responses exhibit smaller margins, indicating greater sensitivity to internal interventions, and the causal robustness margin complements conventional output-based uncertainty methods. Finally, in a controlled knowledge injection experiment, correctly learned facts show increased margins after training, suggesting that causal robustness provides a mechanistically grounded signal of uncertainty.

Without manually annotated identities, unsupervised multi-object trackers are inferior to learning reliable feature embeddings. It causes the similarity-based inter-frame association stage also be error-prone, where an uncertainty problem arises. The frame-by-frame accumulated uncertainty prevents trackers from learning the consistent feature embedding against time variation. To avoid this uncertainty problem, recent self-supervised techniques are adopted, whereas they failed to capture temporal relations. The interframe uncertainty still exists. In fact, this paper argues that though the uncertainty problem is inevitable, it is possible to leverage the uncertainty itself to improve the learned consistency in turn. Specifically, an uncertainty-based metric is developed to verify and rectify the risky associations. The resulting accurate pseudo-tracklets boost learning the feature consistency. And accurate tracklets can incorporate temporal information into spatial transformation. This paper proposes a tracklet-guided augmentation strategy to simulate tracklets' motion, which adopts a hierarchical uncertainty-based sampling mechanism for hard sample mining. The ultimate unsupervised MOT framework, namely U2MOT, is proven effective on MOT-Challenges and VisDrone-MOT benchmark. U2MOT achieves a SOTA performance among the published supervised and unsupervised trackers.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a perspective approach to detecting Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations and low quality output. In this work, we address one of the challenges of UQ in generation tasks that arises from the conditional dependency between the generation steps of an LLM. We propose to learn this dependency from data. We train a regression model, which target variable is the gap between the conditional and the unconditional generation confidence. During LLM inference, we use this learned conditional dependency model to modulate the uncertainty of the current generation step based on the uncertainty of the previous step. Our experimental evaluation on nine datasets and three LLMs shows that the proposed method is highly effective for uncertainty quantification, achieving substantial improvements over rivaling approaches.

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed on long-horizon tasks in partially observable environments, where they must act while inferring and tracking a complex environment state over many steps. This leads to two challenges: partial observability requires maintaining uncertainty over unobserved world attributes, and long interaction history causes context to grow without bound, diluting task-relevant information. A principled solution to both challenges is a belief state: a posterior distribution over environment states given past observations and actions, which compactly encodes history for decision making regardless of episode length. In LLM agents, however, the open-ended nature of text makes it unclear how to represent such a distribution. Therefore, we introduce Agent-BRACE: Agent Belief state Representation via Abstraction and Confidence Estimation, a method that decouples an LLM agent into a belief state model and a policy model, jointly optimized via reinforcement learning. The belief state model produces a structured approximation of the belief distribution: a set of atomic natural language claims about the environment, each annotated with an ordinal verbalized certainty label ranging from certain to unknown. The policy model conditions on this compact, structured approximate belief rather than the full history, learning to select actions under explicit uncertainty. Across long-horizon, partially observable embodied language environments, Agent-BRACE achieves an average absolute improvement of +14.5% (Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct) and +5.3% (Qwen3-4B-Instruct), outperforming strong RL baselines while maintaining a near-constant context window independent of episode length. Further analysis shows that the learned belief becomes increasingly calibrated over the course of an episode as evidence accumulates.

Automatic action quality assessment (AQA) has attracted increasing attention due to its wide applications. However, most existing AQA methods employ deterministic models to predict the final score for each action, while overlooking the subjectivity and diversity among expert judges during the scoring process. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic model, named Uncertainty-Driven AQA (UD-AQA), to utilize and capture the diversity among multiple judge scores. Specifically, we design a Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE)-based module to encode the uncertainty in expert assessment, where multiple judge scores can be produced by sampling latent features from the learned latent space multiple times. To further utilize the uncertainty, we generate the estimation of uncertainty for each prediction, which is employed to re-weight AQA regression loss, effectively reducing the influence of uncertain samples during training. Moreover, we further design an uncertainty-guided training strategy to dynamically adjust the learning order of the samples from low uncertainty to high uncertainty. The experiments show that our proposed method achieves competitive results on three benchmarks including the Olympic events MTL-AQA and FineDiving, and the surgical skill JIGSAWS datasets.

LLM cascades and model routing promise lower inference cost by sending easy queries to a small model and escalating hard ones to a large model, but most deployed routers use uncalibrated confidence scores and require per-workload threshold tuning. We present UCCI, a calibration-first router that maps token-level margin uncertainty to a per-query error probability via isotonic regression and selects the escalation threshold by constrained cost minimization. Under three explicit assumptions, threshold policies on the calibrated score are cost-optimal, and isotonic calibration achieves O(n^{-1/3}) sample complexity for expected calibration error (ECE). On a production named entity recognition workload of 75,000 queries served by 4B and 12B instruction-tuned LLMs on H100 GPUs, UCCI cuts inference cost by 31% (95% CI: [27%, 35%]) at micro-F1 = 0.91 while reducing ECE from 0.12 to 0.03. At the same operating point, UCCI beats entropy thresholding, split-conformal routing, and a FrugalGPT-style learned threshold. All cascade results use end-to-end routing on actual model outputs and measured H100 latency, not simulated routing from global accuracies or nominal API prices.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for the safe clinical deployment of medical image segmentation systems, enabling the identification of unreliable predictions and supporting human oversight. While prior work has largely focused on pixel-level uncertainty, landmark-based segmentation offers inherent topological guarantees yet remains underexplored from an uncertainty perspective. In this work, we study uncertainty estimation for anatomical landmark-based segmentation on chest X-rays. Inspired by hybrid neural network architectures that combine standard image convolutional encoders with graph-based generative decoders, and leveraging their variational latent space, we derive two complementary measures: (i) latent uncertainty, captured directly from the learned distribution parameters, and (ii) predictive uncertainty, obtained by generating multiple stochastic output predictions from latent samples. Through controlled corruption experiments we show that both uncertainty measures increase with perturbation severity, reflecting both global and local degradation. We demonstrate that these uncertainty signals can identify unreliable predictions by comparing with manual ground-truth, and support out-of-distribution detection on the CheXmask dataset. More importantly, we release CheXmask-U (huggingface.co/datasets/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U), a large scale dataset of 657,566 chest X-ray landmark segmentations with per-node uncertainty estimates, enabling researchers to account for spatial variations in segmentation quality when using these anatomical masks. Our findings establish uncertainty estimation as a promising direction to enhance robustness and safe deployment of landmark-based anatomical segmentation methods in chest X-ray. A fully working interactive demo of the method is available at huggingface.co/spaces/matiasky/CheXmask-U and the source code at github.com/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U.

There are a variety of mechanisms (i.e., input types) for real-time human interaction that can facilitate effective human-robot teaming. For example, previous works have shown how teleoperation, corrective, and discrete (i.e., preference over a small number of choices) input can enable robots to complete complex tasks. However, few previous works have looked at combining different methods, and in particular, opportunities for a robot to estimate and elicit the most effective form of assistance given its understanding of a task. In this paper, we propose a method for estimating the value of different human assistance mechanisms based on the action uncertainty of a robot policy. Our key idea is to construct mathematical expressions for the expected post-interaction differential entropy (i.e., uncertainty) of a stochastic robot policy to compare the expected value of different interactions. As each type of human input imposes a different requirement for human involvement, we demonstrate how differential entropy estimates can be combined with a likelihood penalization approach to effectively balance feedback informational needs with the level of required input. We demonstrate evidence of how our approach interfaces with emergent learning models (e.g., a diffusion model) to produce accurate assistance value estimates through both simulation and a robot user study. Our user study results indicate that the proposed approach can enable task completion with minimal human feedback for uncertain robot behaviors.

Surface normal estimation from a single image is an important task in 3D scene understanding. In this paper, we address two limitations shared by the existing methods: the inability to estimate the aleatoric uncertainty and lack of detail in the prediction. The proposed network estimates the per-pixel surface normal probability distribution. We introduce a new parameterization for the distribution, such that its negative log-likelihood is the angular loss with learned attenuation. The expected value of the angular error is then used as a measure of the aleatoric uncertainty. We also present a novel decoder framework where pixel-wise multi-layer perceptrons are trained on a subset of pixels sampled based on the estimated uncertainty. The proposed uncertainty-guided sampling prevents the bias in training towards large planar surfaces and improves the quality of prediction, especially near object boundaries and on small structures. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art in ScanNet and NYUv2, and that the estimated uncertainty correlates well with the prediction error. Code is available at https://github.com/baegwangbin/surface_normal_uncertainty.

Large language models (LLMs) are known to abandon their initial stance to conform to user pushback. While prior research largely attributes this behavior to sycophancy learned during reinforcement learning from human feedback, we hypothesize that conformity is also driven by a model's epistemic uncertainty at inference time. In this paper, we introduce MUSE, a two-stage evaluation framework to disentangle the mechanisms driving LLM conformity. Specifically, MUSE maps a model's epistemic uncertainty in responding to a query against its likelihood to yield to user pushback in a subsequent turn. We demonstrate that the mechanisms driving conformity extend beyond sycophancy alone. Specifically, we characterize two distinct factors that jointly drive conformity: sycophantic conformity, where a model aligns with user pushback even with absolute certainty in its initial response, and uncertainty-driven conformity, where a model's likelihood for conformity increases alongside its uncertainty. Furthermore, we conduct ablation studies to demonstrate that both sycophantic conformity and uncertainty-driven conformity grow with 1) the LLM's perceived expertise of the user and 2) the plausibility of the user's suggestions. More broadly, MUSE informs more targeted intervention strategies by distinguishing alignment-induced sycophancy and training-corpora-driven uncertainty.

Nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are powerful tools for modeling real-world dynamical systems. However, propagating initial state uncertainty through nonlinear dynamics, especially when the ODE is unknown and learned from data, remains a major challenge. This paper introduces a novel continuum dynamics perspective for model learning that enables formal uncertainty propagation by constructing Taylor series approximations of probabilistic events. We establish sufficient conditions for the soundness of the approach and prove its asymptotic convergence. Empirical results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness, particularly when predicting rare events.

This paper introduces RaCo, a lightweight neural network designed to learn robust and versatile keypoints suitable for a variety of 3D computer vision tasks. The model integrates three key components: the repeatable keypoint detector, a differentiable ranker to maximize matches with a limited number of keypoints, and a covariance estimator to quantify spatial uncertainty in metric scale. Trained on perspective image crops only, RaCo operates without the need for covisible image pairs. It achieves strong rotational robustness through extensive data augmentation, even without the use of computationally expensive equivariant network architectures. The method is evaluated on several challenging datasets, where it demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in keypoint repeatability and two-view matching, particularly under large in-plane rotations. Ultimately, RaCo provides an effective and simple strategy to independently estimate keypoint ranking and metric covariance without additional labels, detecting interpretable and repeatable interest points. The code is available at https://github.com/cvg/RaCo.

We present FORGE, a method for sim-to-real transfer of force-aware manipulation policies in the presence of significant pose uncertainty. During simulation-based policy learning, FORGE combines a force threshold mechanism with a dynamics randomization scheme to enable robust transfer of the learned policies to the real robot. At deployment, FORGE policies, conditioned on a maximum allowable force, adaptively perform contact-rich tasks while avoiding aggressive and unsafe behaviour, regardless of the controller gains. Additionally, FORGE policies predict task success, enabling efficient termination and autonomous tuning of the force threshold. We show that FORGE can be used to learn a variety of robust contact-rich policies, including the forceful insertion of snap-fit connectors. We further demonstrate the multistage assembly of a planetary gear system, which requires success across three assembly tasks: nut threading, insertion, and gear meshing. Project website can be accessed at https://noseworm.github.io/forge/.

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic physics-guided framework, termed Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM). The framework targets the inference of the characteristics and latent structure of nonlinear dynamical systems from measurement data, where exact inference of latent variables is typically intractable. A recently surfaced option pertains to leveraging variational inference to perform approximate inference. In such a scheme, transition and emission functions of the system are parameterized via feed-forward neural networks (deep generative models). However, due to the generalized and highly versatile formulation of neural network functions, the learned latent space often lacks physical interpretation and structured representation. To address this, we bridge physics-based state space models with Deep Markov Models, thus delivering a hybrid modeling framework for unsupervised learning and identification of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed framework takes advantage of the expressive power of deep learning, while retaining the driving physics of the dynamical system by imposing physics-driven restrictions on the side of the latent space. We demonstrate the benefits of such a fusion in terms of achieving improved performance on illustrative simulation examples and experimental case studies of nonlinear systems. Our results indicate that the physics-based models involved in the employed transition and emission functions essentially enforce a more structured and physically interpretable latent space, which is essential for enhancing and generalizing the predictive capabilities of deep learning-based models.

We present the first-place solution to the MeViS-Text track of the 8th Large-scale Video Object Segmentation (LSVOS) Challenge 2026: referring video object segmentation guided by written motion expressions, including deceptive no-target expressions that match no object in the video and must yield empty masks in every frame. Our pipeline, SSUPER, resolves each expression into a visual concept, generates full-video candidate masklets with SAM~3.1, and selects target IDs. At every reasoning stage, three heterogeneous multimodal large language models independently execute the same stage-specific prompt before a single synthesis pass commits one schema-validated verdict. Although this system rejects every no-target expression in validation, the leaderboard reveals that a substantial share of test no-target cases still slips through. The reason is that hard negatives name a plausible object and fail only under the complete temporal predicate, so when selection and existence are decided together, a category-plausible masklet anchors the verdict. Hence, we decouple existence verification into an independent multi-agent audit of the full predicate (category, count, action, trajectory, event order, and semantic role) that distinguishes absence from temporary invisibility, discounts apparent motion caused by camera movement, and requires contradicting evidence rather than mere uncertainty for a no-target verdict. Without any new segmentation call, this audit recovers most of the residual no-target errors. A training-data-only StyleRefiner then aligns mask geometry with the annotation style of MeViSv2 while preserving every presence decision by construction, showing that once the semantics are fixed, part of the remaining error is stylistic rather than semantic. The complete system reaches a Final score of 0.9081339614 on the official challenge leaderboard.

We describe our early efforts to red team language models in order to simultaneously discover, measure, and attempt to reduce their potentially harmful outputs. We make three main contributions. First, we investigate scaling behaviors for red teaming across 3 model sizes (2.7B, 13B, and 52B parameters) and 4 model types: a plain language model (LM); an LM prompted to be helpful, honest, and harmless; an LM with rejection sampling; and a model trained to be helpful and harmless using reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). We find that the RLHF models are increasingly difficult to red team as they scale, and we find a flat trend with scale for the other model types. Second, we release our dataset of 38,961 red team attacks for others to analyze and learn from. We provide our own analysis of the data and find a variety of harmful outputs, which range from offensive language to more subtly harmful non-violent unethical outputs. Third, we exhaustively describe our instructions, processes, statistical methodologies, and uncertainty about red teaming. We hope that this transparency accelerates our ability to work together as a community in order to develop shared norms, practices, and technical standards for how to red team language models.

Self-paced learning and hard example mining re-weight training instances to improve learning accuracy. This paper presents two improved alternatives based on lightweight estimates of sample uncertainty in stochastic gradient descent (SGD): the variance in predicted probability of the correct class across iterations of mini-batch SGD, and the proximity of the correct class probability to the decision threshold. Extensive experimental results on six datasets show that our methods reliably improve accuracy in various network architectures, including additional gains on top of other popular training techniques, such as residual learning, momentum, ADAM, batch normalization, dropout, and distillation.

In this paper we introduce the concept of what we call "NUDAR" (NeUtrino Direction and Ranging), making the point that measurements of the observed energy and direction vectors can be employed to passively deduce the exact three-dimensional location and thermal power of geophysical and anthropogenic neutrino sources from even a single detector. We present the most precise background estimates to date, all handled in full three dimensions, as functions of depth and geographical location. For the present calculations, we consider a hypothetical 138 kiloton detector which can be transported to an ocean site and deployed to an operational depth. We present a Bayesian estimation framework to incorporate any a priori knowledge of the reactor that we are trying to detect, as well as the estimated uncertainty in the background and the oscillation parameters. Most importantly, we fully employ the knowledge of the reactor spectrum and the distance-dependent effects of neutrino oscillations on such spectra. The latter, in particular, makes possible determination of range from one location, given adequate signal statistics. Further, we explore the rich potential of improving detection with even modest improvements in individual neutrino direction determination. We conclude that a 300 MWth reactor can indeed be geolocated, and its operating power estimated with one or two detectors in the hundred kiloton class at ranges out to a few hundred kilometers. We note that such detectors would have natural and non-interfering utility for scientific studies of geo-neutrinos, neutrino oscillations, and astrophysical neutrinos. This motivates the development of cost effective methods of constructing and deploying such next generation detectors.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

We present PhysiFormer, a diffusion transformer for physically-plausible 3D object motion. Unlike video world models that operate in view-dependent pixel space, PhysiFormer represents objects as 3D meshes expressed in world coordinates. Given the initial vertex positions and velocities, as well as object material type, rigid or elastic, the model samples future vertex trajectories. While related neural physics approaches build on ad-hoc latent spaces or explicitly enforce rigidity and causality, PhysiFormer shows that excellent results can be obtained without any such inductive biases, by casting vertex trajectory prediction as a single denoising diffusion process directly in world coordinates. The probabilistic formulation captures uncertainty in the learned dynamics, enabling diverse plausible futures from initial conditions, making this framework potentially useful for applications with unobserved uncertainty. The model features attention factorised over time, space, and objects for efficiency, enabling permutation-invariant multi-object reasoning without needing explicit object encoding. Trained on over 100k simulated trajectories, PhysiFormer generates rigid and elastic mechanics, and generalises to mixed-material settings, unseen real-world geometries, and larger object counts. It substantially outperforms autoregressive baselines in trajectory accuracy, rigidity preservation, and momentum-based physical consistency. Our results position coordinate-space diffusion as a promising step toward view-invariant, geometry-aware world modelling for robotics, graphics, and physical design. Visualisations, code, and models are available at https://yimingc9.github.io/physiformer.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Jet tagging at the Large Hadron Collider increasingly relies on deep learning models trained on massive simulated datasets, leading to high computational costs and limited robustness to detector mismodeling. We introduce JetParticle-JEPA (JP-JEPA), a self-supervised Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture that learns physically meaningful jet representations directly from continuous particle clouds without tokenization or reconstruction of raw inputs. Built on a Particle Transformer backbone, JP-JEPA predicts latent representations of masked particles while preserving fine-grained kinematic correlations. On the JetClass benchmark, JP-JEPA achieves performance comparable to fully supervised state-of-the-art methods on the full dataset, surpasses supervised baselines in low-label regimes, and significantly outperforms existing SSL approaches. On Top Quark and Quark-Gluon Tagging benchmarks, it remains on par with supervised methods. The learned representations also exhibit strong robustness to missing detector information and improved uncertainty behavior, highlighting JP-JEPA as a promising foundation-model framework for robust and data-efficient jet physics at the LHC.

Recent advances in graph convolutional networks have significantly improved the performance of chemical predictions, raising a new research question: "how do we explain the predictions of graph convolutional networks?" A possible approach to answer this question is to visualize evidence substructures responsible for the predictions. For chemical property prediction tasks, the sample size of the training data is often small and/or a label imbalance problem occurs, where a few samples belong to a single class and the majority of samples belong to the other classes. This can lead to uncertainty related to the learned parameters of the machine learning model. To address this uncertainty, we propose BayesGrad, utilizing the Bayesian predictive distribution, to define the importance of each node in an input graph, which is computed efficiently using the dropout technique. We demonstrate that BayesGrad successfully visualizes the substructures responsible for the label prediction in the artificial experiment, even when the sample size is small. Furthermore, we use a real dataset to evaluate the effectiveness of the visualization. The basic idea of BayesGrad is not limited to graph-structured data and can be applied to other data types.

We revisit the weakly supervised cross-modal face-name alignment task; that is, given an image and a caption, we label the faces in the image with the names occurring in the caption. Whereas past approaches have learned the latent alignment between names and faces by uncertainty reasoning over a set of images and their respective captions, in this paper, we rely on appropriate loss functions to learn the alignments in a neural network setting and propose SECLA and SECLA-B. SECLA is a Symmetry-Enhanced Contrastive Learning-based Alignment model that can effectively maximize the similarity scores between corresponding faces and names in a weakly supervised fashion. A variation of the model, SECLA-B, learns to align names and faces as humans do, that is, learning from easy to hard cases to further increase the performance of SECLA. More specifically, SECLA-B applies a two-stage learning framework: (1) Training the model on an easy subset with a few names and faces in each image-caption pair. (2) Leveraging the known pairs of names and faces from the easy cases using a bootstrapping strategy with additional loss to prevent forgetting and learning new alignments at the same time. We achieve state-of-the-art results for both the augmented Labeled Faces in the Wild dataset and the Celebrity Together dataset. In addition, we believe that our methods can be adapted to other multimodal news understanding tasks.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has demonstrated great promise in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preference. Depending on the availability of preference data, both online and offline RLHF are active areas of investigation. A key bottleneck is understanding how to incorporate uncertainty estimation in the reward function learned from the preference data for RLHF, regardless of how the preference data is collected. While the principles of optimism or pessimism under uncertainty are well-established in standard reinforcement learning (RL), a practically-implementable and theoretically-grounded form amenable to large language models is not yet available, as standard techniques for constructing confidence intervals become intractable under arbitrary policy parameterizations. In this paper, we introduce a unified approach to online and offline RLHF -- value-incentivized preference optimization (VPO) -- which regularizes the maximum-likelihood estimate of the reward function with the corresponding value function, modulated by a sign to indicate whether the optimism or pessimism is chosen. VPO also directly optimizes the policy with implicit reward modeling, and therefore shares a simpler RLHF pipeline similar to direct preference optimization. Theoretical guarantees of VPO are provided for both online and offline settings, matching the rates of their standard RL counterparts. Moreover, experiments on text summarization and dialog verify the practicality and effectiveness of VPO.

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though natural language is a powerful medium for this purpose, large language models (LLMs) and existing fine-tuning algorithms lack mechanisms for strategically gathering information to refine their own understanding of the latent entity. To harness the generalization power and world knowledge of LLMs in developing effective information-gathering strategies, we propose an adaptive elicitation framework that actively reduces uncertainty on the latent entity. Since probabilistic modeling of an abstract latent entity is difficult, our framework adopts a predictive view of uncertainty, using a meta-learned language model to simulate future observations and enable scalable uncertainty quantification over complex natural language. Through autoregressive forward simulation, our model quantifies how new questions reduce epistemic uncertainty, enabling the development of sophisticated information-gathering strategies to choose the most informative next queries. In experiments on the 20 questions game, dynamic opinion polling, and adaptive student assessment, our method consistently outperforms baselines in identifying critical unknowns and improving downstream predictions, illustrating the promise of strategic information gathering in natural language settings.

The integration of machine learning tools into telecom networks, has led to two prevailing paradigms, namely, language-based systems, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), and physics-based systems, such as Digital Twins (DTs). While LLM-based approaches enable flexible interaction and automation, they lack explicit representations of network dynamics. DTs, in contrast, offer a high-fidelity network simulation, but remain scenario-specific and are not designed for learning or decision-making under uncertainty. This gap becomes critical for 6G systems, where decisions must take into account the evolving network states, uncertainty, and the cascading effects of control actions across multiple layers. In this article, we introduce the {Telecom World Model}~(TWM) concept, an architecture for learned, action-conditioned, uncertainty-aware modeling of telecom system dynamics. We decompose the problem into two interacting worlds, a controllable system world consisting of operator-configurable settings and an external world that captures propagation, mobility, traffic, and failures. We propose a three-layer architecture, comprising a field world model for spatial environment prediction, a control/dynamics world model for action-conditioned Key Performance Indicator (KPI) trajectory prediction, and a telecom foundation model layer for intent translation and orchestration. We showcase a comparative analysis between existing paradigms, which demonstrates that TWM jointly provides telecom state grounding, fast action-conditioned roll-outs, calibrated uncertainty, multi-timescale dynamics, model-based planning, and LLM-integrated guardrails. Furthermore, we present a proof-of-concept on network slicing to validate the proposed architecture, showing that the full three-layer pipeline outperforms single-world baselines and accurately predicts KPI trajectories.

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying deep learning models in high-stakes settings, where out-of-distribution and adversarial inputs can induce confident but unreliable predictions. Evidential Deep Learning provides efficient uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass, but can still assign high evidential strength to inputs that are poorly supported by the learned representation, such as adversarial inputs. We introduce CLEAR, a lightweight, task-agnostic post-hoc method that improves evidential robustness without retraining or altering the base prediction. Using held-out calibration data, CLEAR characterises the group-conditioned geometry of the model's latent space. At inference, it efficiently generates perturbation views directly in the latent space and measures their conflict relative to the calibrated geometry of the predicted group. High latent conflict indicates unsupported evidence, which CLEAR uses to selectively reduce evidential strength while retaining evidence for latent-consistent inputs. On ImageNetrightarrowCUB, CLEAR improves OOD and adversarial AUROC by +8.29 and +5.01 while running 17.4times faster than competing post-hoc methods while preserving predictive performance across classification, regression, and object detection benchmarks.

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) trains large language models (LLMs) from sampled trajectories, making decoding strategy a core component of learning rather than a purely inference-time choice. Sampling temperature directly controls the exploration--exploitation trade-off by modulating policy entropy, yet existing methods rely on static values or heuristic adaptations that are decoupled from task-level rewards. We propose Introspective LLM, a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that learns to control sampling temperature during generation. At each decoding step, the model selects a temperature based on its hidden state and samples the next token from the resulting distribution. Temperature and token policies are jointly optimized from downstream rewards using a coordinate ascent scheme. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that learned temperature policies outperform fixed and heuristic baselines, while exhibiting interpretable exploration behaviors aligned with reasoning uncertainty.

The robustness of legged locomotion is crucial for quadrupedal robots in challenging terrains. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown promising results in legged locomotion and various methods try to integrate privileged distillation, scene modeling, and external sensors to improve the generalization and robustness of locomotion policies. However, these methods are hard to handle uncertain scenarios such as abrupt terrain changes or unexpected external forces. In this paper, we consider a novel risk-sensitive perspective to enhance the robustness of legged locomotion. Specifically, we employ a distributional value function learned by quantile regression to model the aleatoric uncertainty of environments, and perform risk-averse policy learning by optimizing the worst-case scenarios via a risk distortion measure. Extensive experiments in both simulation environments and a real Aliengo robot demonstrate that our method is efficient in handling various external disturbances, and the resulting policy exhibits improved robustness in harsh and uncertain situations in legged locomotion. Videos are available at https://risk-averse-locomotion.github.io/.

We study the problem of planning under model uncertainty in an online meta-reinforcement learning (RL) setting where an agent is presented with a sequence of related tasks with limited interactions per task. The agent can use its experience in each task and across tasks to estimate both the transition model and the distribution over tasks. We propose an algorithm to meta-learn the underlying structure across tasks, utilize it to plan in each task, and upper-bound the regret of the planning loss. Our bound suggests that the average regret over tasks decreases as the number of tasks increases and as the tasks are more similar. In the classical single-task setting, it is known that the planning horizon should depend on the estimated model's accuracy, that is, on the number of samples within task. We generalize this finding to meta-RL and study this dependence of planning horizons on the number of tasks. Based on our theoretical findings, we derive heuristics for selecting slowly increasing discount factors, and we validate its significance empirically.

Learning and decision making in the brain are key processes critical to survival, and yet are processes implemented by non-ideal biological building blocks which can impose significant error. We explore quantitatively how the brain might cope with this inherent source of error by taking advantage of two ubiquitous mechanisms, redundancy and synchronization. In particular we consider a neural process whose goal is to learn a decision function by implementing a nonlinear gradient dynamics. The dynamics, however, are assumed to be corrupted by perturbations modeling the error which might be incurred due to limitations of the biology, intrinsic neuronal noise, and imperfect measurements. We show that error, and the associated uncertainty surrounding a learned solution, can be controlled in large part by trading off synchronization strength among multiple redundant neural systems against the noise amplitude. The impact of the coupling between such redundant systems is quantified by the spectrum of the network Laplacian, and we discuss the role of network topology in synchronization and in reducing the effect of noise. A range of situations in which the mechanisms we model arise in brain science are discussed, and we draw attention to experimental evidence suggesting that cortical circuits capable of implementing the computations of interest here can be found on several scales. Finally, simulations comparing theoretical bounds to the relevant empirical quantities show that the theoretical estimates we derive can be tight.

Local prediction-error-based curiosity rewards focus on the current transition without considering the world model's cumulative prediction error across all visited transitions. We introduce Curiosity-Critic, which grounds its intrinsic reward in the improvement of this cumulative objective, and show that it reduces to a tractable per-step form: the difference between the current prediction error and the asymptotic error baseline of the current state transition. We estimate this baseline online with a learned critic co-trained alongside the world model; regressing a single scalar, the critic converges well before the world model saturates, redirecting exploration toward learnable transitions without oracle knowledge of the noise floor. The reward is higher for learnable transitions and collapses toward the baseline for stochastic ones, effectively separating epistemic (reducible) from aleatoric (irreducible) prediction error online. Prior prediction-error curiosity formulations, from Schmidhuber (1991) to learned-feature-space variants, emerge as special cases corresponding to specific approximations of this baseline. Experiments on a stochastic grid world show that Curiosity-Critic outperforms prediction-error and visitation-count baselines in convergence speed and final world model accuracy.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) improves sample efficiency by optimizing policies inside imagined rollouts, but long-horizon planning degrades when model errors compound and imagined trajectories drift off the training manifold. We introduce GIRL (Generative Imagination Reinforcement Learning), a latent world-model framework that addresses this failure mode with two key components. First, a cross-modal grounding signal derived from a frozen foundation model (DINOv2) anchors the latent transition prior to a semantically consistent embedding space, penalizing inconsistent or implausible predictions. Second, an uncertainty-adaptive trust-region bottleneck interprets the KL regularizer as the Lagrange multiplier of a constrained optimization problem, restricting imagination drift within a learned region calibrated by Expected Information Gain and a Relative Performance Loss signal. We re-derive a value-gap bound using the Performance Difference Lemma and Integral Probability Metrics, yielding a bound that remains informative as the discount factor approaches one and connects the objective to real-environment regret. Experiments across three benchmark suites, including DeepMind Control, Adroit Hand Manipulation, and Meta-World with visual distractors, show that GIRL reduces latent rollout drift by 38 to 61 percent across tasks relative to DreamerV3, improves asymptotic return, and requires fewer environment interactions on long-horizon tasks. GIRL also outperforms TD-MPC2 on sparse-reward and high-contact settings under standard evaluation metrics. A distilled-prior variant reduces inference overhead and improves computational efficiency relative to the full model.

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

Blind face restoration is a highly ill-posed problem that often requires auxiliary guidance to 1) improve the mapping from degraded inputs to desired outputs, or 2) complement high-quality details lost in the inputs. In this paper, we demonstrate that a learned discrete codebook prior in a small proxy space largely reduces the uncertainty and ambiguity of restoration mapping by casting blind face restoration as a code prediction task, while providing rich visual atoms for generating high-quality faces. Under this paradigm, we propose a Transformer-based prediction network, named CodeFormer, to model the global composition and context of the low-quality faces for code prediction, enabling the discovery of natural faces that closely approximate the target faces even when the inputs are severely degraded. To enhance the adaptiveness for different degradation, we also propose a controllable feature transformation module that allows a flexible trade-off between fidelity and quality. Thanks to the expressive codebook prior and global modeling, CodeFormer outperforms the state of the arts in both quality and fidelity, showing superior robustness to degradation. Extensive experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets verify the effectiveness of our method.

Codec-based text-to-speech (TTS) models have recently gained traction for their efficiency and strong performance in voice cloning. However, codec-based TTS faces limitations due to the challenges of pretraining robust speech codecs and the quality degradation introduced by quantization errors. Emerging evidence suggests that continuous-valued generative models can alleviate these issues and serve as a promising alternative. Yet, effectively modelling diverse speech patterns and developing reliable sampling strategies for continuous-valued autoregressive (AR) TTS remains underexplored. In this work, we propose BELLE, Bayesian evidential learning with language modelling for TTS, a novel continuous-valued AR framework that directly predicts mel-spectrograms from textual input. BELLE treats each mel-spectrogram frame as a Gaussian distribution sampled from a learned hyper distribution, enabling principled uncertainty estimation, particularly in scenarios with parallel data (i.e., one text-audio prompt paired with multiple speech samples). To obtain such data, diverse speech samples are synthesized using multiple pre-trained TTS models given the same text-audio prompts, which are distilled into BELLE via Bayesian evidential learning. Experimental results indicate that BELLE demonstrates highly competitive performance compared with the current best open-source TTS models, even though BELLE is trained on a large amount of synthetic data and uses only approximately one-tenth of their training data. Audio samples generated by BELLE are available at https://belletts.github.io/Belle/. The code, checkpoints, and synthetic data will be released after the paper is accepted.

Real-world decision-making, from tax compliance assessment to medical diagnosis, requires aggregating multiple noisy and potentially contradictory evidence sources. Existing approaches either lack explicit uncertainty quantification (neural aggregation methods) or rely on manually engineered discrete predicates (probabilistic logic frameworks), limiting scalability to unstructured data. We introduce Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a framework that transforms Variational Autoencoder (VAE) latent posteriors into soft likelihood factors for Sum-Product Network (SPN) inference, enabling tractable probabilistic reasoning over unstructured evidence while preserving calibrated uncertainty estimates. We instantiate LPF as LPF-SPN (structured factor-based inference) and LPF-Learned (end-to-end learned aggregation), enabling a principled comparison between explicit probabilistic reasoning and learned aggregation under a shared uncertainty representation. Across eight domains (seven synthetic and the FEVER benchmark), LPF-SPN achieves high accuracy (up to 97.8%), low calibration error (ECE 1.4%), and strong probabilistic fit, substantially outperforming evidential deep learning, LLMs and graph-based baselines over 15 random seeds. Contributions: (1) A framework bridging latent uncertainty representations with structured probabilistic reasoning. (2) Dual architectures enabling controlled comparison of reasoning paradigms. (3) Reproducible training methodology with seed selection. (4) Evaluation against EDL, BERT, R-GCN, and large language model baselines. (5) Cross-domain validation. (6) Formal guarantees in a companion paper.

In this paper, we study robust decision-making in the latent space of world models (WMs). Robust optimization is a mathematical framework where, given explicitly specified dynamics and physically meaningful disturbances, a robot can select actions that remain effective even under worst-case disturbances. However, applying this principle to the learned latent space of WMs introduces a fundamental challenge: because WMs have fully learned state spaces and dynamics inferred from high-dimensional observations, it is unclear how to define latent-space disturbances that faithfully represent uncertainty in the underlying system. Our key idea is to model a latent-space disturbance as a perturbation to the learned latent dynamics that induces pessimistic but plausible transitions. Specifically, we construct a set of plausible latent dynamics by combining a dynamics-aware similarity metric that captures plausible transitions with out-of-distribution detection that excludes implausible latent states. We calibrate this uncertainty set over latent dynamics using conformal prediction, ensuring that WM imaginations induced by the latent disturbance remain plausible without becoming overly pessimistic. We then jointly optimize robust robot actions and the worst-case latent disturbances through game-theoretic optimization. We leverage this latent-space robust optimization to robustify policy steering, considering two paradigms: latent safety filtering and sample-and-verify steering of a generative control policy. Our controlled simulation experiments show that our latent disturbance enables robust decision-making directly in WM latent spaces, and hardware experiments with a Franka manipulator show that modeling latent disturbances enables robust policy steering, reducing failures by 70% in safety filtering and 54% in sampling-based policy steering. Project website: https://junwon.me/LatentDisturbance/.

We address the problem of active mapping with a continually-learned neural scene representation, namely Active Neural Mapping. The key lies in actively finding the target space to be explored with efficient agent movement, thus minimizing the map uncertainty on-the-fly within a previously unseen environment. In this paper, we examine the weight space of the continually-learned neural field, and show empirically that the neural variability, the prediction robustness against random weight perturbation, can be directly utilized to measure the instant uncertainty of the neural map. Together with the continuous geometric information inherited in the neural map, the agent can be guided to find a traversable path to gradually gain knowledge of the environment. We present for the first time an active mapping system with a coordinate-based implicit neural representation for online scene reconstruction. Experiments in the visually-realistic Gibson and Matterport3D environment demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

Neural surface representation has demonstrated remarkable success in the areas of novel view synthesis and 3D reconstruction. However, assessing the geometric quality of 3D reconstructions in the absence of ground truth mesh remains a significant challenge, due to its rendering-based optimization process and entangled learning of appearance and geometry with photometric losses. In this paper, we present a novel framework, i.e, GURecon, which establishes a geometric uncertainty field for the neural surface based on geometric consistency. Different from existing methods that rely on rendering-based measurement, GURecon models a continuous 3D uncertainty field for the reconstructed surface, and is learned by an online distillation approach without introducing real geometric information for supervision. Moreover, in order to mitigate the interference of illumination on geometric consistency, a decoupled field is learned and exploited to finetune the uncertainty field. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate the superiority of GURecon in modeling 3D geometric uncertainty, as well as its plug-and-play extension to various neural surface representations and improvement on downstream tasks such as incremental reconstruction. The code and supplementary material are available on the project website: https://zju3dv.github.io/GURecon/.

Large neural models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings, raising concerns about whether their behavior reliably aligns with human values. Interpretability provides a route to internal transparency by revealing the computations that drive outputs. We argue that interpretability especially mechanistic approaches should be treated as a design principle for alignment, not an auxiliary diagnostic tool. Post-hoc methods such as LIME or SHAP offer intuitive but correlational explanations, while mechanistic techniques like circuit tracing or activation patching yield causal insight into internal failures, including deceptive or misaligned reasoning that behavioral methods like RLHF, red teaming, or Constitutional AI may overlook. Despite these advantages, interpretability faces challenges of scalability, epistemic uncertainty, and mismatches between learned representations and human concepts. Our position is that progress on safe and trustworthy AI will depend on making interpretability a first-class objective of AI research and development, ensuring that systems are not only effective but also auditable, transparent, and aligned with human intent.

Generative recommendation provides a novel paradigm in which each item is represented by a discrete semantic ID (SID) learned from rich content. Most existing methods treat SIDs as predefined and train recommenders under static indexing. In practice, SIDs are typically optimized only for content reconstruction rather than recommendation accuracy. This leads to an objective mismatch: the system optimizes an indexing loss to learn the SID and a recommendation loss for interaction prediction, but because the tokenizer is trained independently, the recommendation loss cannot update it. A natural approach is to make semantic indexing differentiable so that recommendation gradients can directly influence SID learning, but this often causes codebook collapse, where only a few codes are used. We attribute this issue to early deterministic assignments that limit codebook exploration, resulting in imbalance and unstable optimization. In this paper, we propose DIGER (Differentiable Semantic ID for Generative Recommendation), a first step toward effective differentiable semantic IDs for generative recommendation. DIGER introduces Gumbel noise to explicitly encourage early-stage exploration over codes, mitigating codebook collapse and improving code utilization. To balance exploration and convergence, we further design two uncertainty decay strategies that gradually reduce the Gumbel noise, enabling a smooth transition from early exploration to exploitation of learned SIDs. Extensive experiments on multiple public datasets demonstrate consistent improvements from differentiable semantic IDs. These results confirm the effectiveness of aligning indexing and recommendation objectives through differentiable SIDs and highlight differentiable semantic indexing as a promising research direction.

Template-based segmentation, a widely used paradigm in medical imaging, propagates anatomical labels via deformable registration from a labeled atlas to a target image, and is often used to compute volumetric biomarkers for downstream decision-making. While conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample valid intervals for scalar metrics, existing segmentation-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches either rely on learned model features, often unavailable in classic template-based pipelines, or treat the registration process as a black box, resulting in overly conservative intervals when applied directly in output space. We introduce ConVOLT, a CP framework that achieves efficient volumetric UQ by conditioning calibration on properties of the estimated deformation field from template-based segmentation. ConVOLT calibrates a learned volumetric scaling factor from deformation space features. We evaluate ConVOLT on template-based segmentation tasks involving global, regional, and label volumetry across multiple datasets and registration methods. ConVOLT achieves target coverage while producing substantially tighter intervals than output-space conformal baselines. Our work paves way to exploit the registration process for efficient UQ in medical imaging pipelines.

State-of-the-art whole-body pose estimators often lack robustness, producing anatomically implausible predictions in challenging scenes. We posit this failure stems from spurious correlations learned from visual context, a problem we formalize using a Structural Causal Model (SCM). The SCM identifies visual context as a confounder that creates a non-causal backdoor path, corrupting the model's reasoning. We introduce the Causal Intervention Graph Pose (CIGPose) framework to address this by approximating the true causal effect between visual evidence and pose. The core of CIGPose is a novel Causal Intervention Module: it first identifies confounded keypoint representations via predictive uncertainty and then replaces them with learned, context-invariant canonical embeddings. These deconfounded embeddings are processed by a hierarchical graph neural network that reasons over the human skeleton at both local and global semantic levels to enforce anatomical plausibility. Extensive experiments show CIGPose achieves a new state-of-the-art on COCO-WholeBody. Notably, our CIGPose-x model achieves 67.0\% AP, surpassing prior methods that rely on extra training data. With the additional UBody dataset, CIGPose-x is further boosted to 67.5\% AP, demonstrating superior robustness and data efficiency. The codes and models are publicly available at https://github.com/53mins/CIGPose.

Specialist epilepsy expertise is scarce in resource-constrained settings, making LLM-based decision support attractive for frontline clinicians managing longitudinal treatment. Such systems must adapt to local prescribing practice and know when to defer. We study this problem in Ugandan pediatric epilepsy care, predicting anti-seizure medication regimens from longitudinal unstructured clinic notes. Standard prompting achieves non-trivial agreement with physician prescriptions, but neurologist review shows that many errors reflect distribution-miscalibrated prescribing defaults rather than failures to parse the local record. We introduce MANANA, a non-parametric prompt-learning framework that learns local prescribing guidance from a small patient-level training set. MANANA converts observed prescription errors into auditable prompt memories, instantiated in single-agent and multi-agent variants, and improves over classical ML models, direct LLM prompting, and prompt-optimization baselines across two independently collected Ugandan cohorts. We further propose Bayesian prompt averaging, which converts the learned prompt trajectory into prescription likelihoods and an uncertainty-based deferral signal. On the independently collected held-out cohort, this improves visit-level top-3 prescription accuracy by 4-8 percentage points over prompt-optimization baselines and enables selective prediction: the system can auto-handle the most confident half of cases at 95% precision, or the most confident quarter at 99% precision, while deferring lower-confidence cases for specialist review.

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally intensive simulations, recent advances in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) offer a promising but often disconnected alternative. We bridge these paradigms through a unified hybrid Bayesian Deep Learning framework for ensemble weather forecasting that explicitly decomposes predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components, learned via variational inference and a physics-informed stochastic perturbation scheme modeling flow-dependent atmospheric dynamics, respectively. We further establish a unified theoretical framework that rigorously connects BDL and EPS, providing formal theorems that decompose total predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components under the hybrid BDL framework. We validate our framework on the large-scale 40-year ERA5 reanalysis dataset (1979-2019) with 0.25° spatial resolution. Experimental results show that our method not only improves forecast accuracy and yields better-calibrated uncertainty quantification but also achieves superior computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art probabilistic diffusion models. We commit to making our code open-source upon acceptance of this paper.

The Segment Anything Model (SAM) has revolutionized interactive segmentation through spatial prompting. While existing work primarily focuses on automating prompts in various settings, real-world annotation workflows involve iterative refinement where annotators observe model outputs and strategically place prompts to resolve ambiguities. Current pipelines typically rely on the annotator's visual assessment of the predicted mask quality. We postulate that a principled approach for automated interactive prompting is to use a model-derived criterion to identify the most informative region for the next prompt. In this work, we establish active prompting: a spatial active learning approach where locations within images constitute an unlabeled pool and prompts serve as queries to prioritize information-rich regions, increasing the utility of each interaction. We further present BALD-SAM: a principled framework adapting Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD) to spatial prompt selection by quantifying epistemic uncertainty. To do so, we freeze the entire model and apply Bayesian uncertainty modeling only to a small learned prediction head, making intractable uncertainty estimation practical for large multi-million parameter foundation models. Across 16 datasets spanning natural, medical, underwater, and seismic domains, BALD-SAM demonstrates strong cross-domain performance, ranking first or second on 14 of 16 benchmarks. We validate these gains through a comprehensive ablation suite covering 3 SAM backbones and 35 Laplace posterior configurations, amounting to 38 distinct ablation settings. Beyond strong average performance, BALD-SAM surpasses human prompting and, in several categories, even oracle prompting, while consistently outperforming one-shot baselines in final segmentation quality, particularly on thin and structurally complex objects.

Multimodal medical imaging fuses complementary anatomical and functional information, yet modalities frequently disagree in pathologically heterogeneous regions. Current segmentation models handle this in one of two inadequate ways: deterministic fusion that averages away disagreement, or post-hoc uncertainty estimation decoupled from the fusion process that produces it. Both obscure the clinically critical question: why is this prediction unreliable? We present EnTrust, a framework that treats inter-modal conflict as the primary source of predictive uncertainty. Our EnFuse module decomposes multimodal features into three disentangled components: shared anatomical consensus (F_c), modality-specific cues (F_{u,m}), and spatially localized conflict signals (F_{cf}), with independence enforced via a cross-covariance objective. This structured decomposition conditions SegDiff, a diffusion-based generative segmentation model whose sampled hypotheses diverge specifically in regions of modal disagreement. TrustMap then translates this hypothesis divergence into calibrated, pixel-wise uncertainty using ensemble entropy, conflict-guided perturbation probing, and a learned calibration head, enabling clinicians to understand not only where predictions are uncertain, but why. Across four benchmarks spanning brain, cardiac, lesion, and oncology domains, EnTrust achieves state-of-the-art segmentation accuracy while reducing calibration error by 40% compared to the strongest baseline. Notably, it outperforms 5x deep ensembles using a single model at roughly half the memory footprint. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/GenMI-Lab/EnTrust.git.

Contact-rich manipulation tasks with stiff frictional elements like connector insertion are difficult to model with rigid-body simulators. In this work, we propose a new approach for modeling these environments by learning a quasi-static contact force model instead of a full simulator. Using a feature vector that contains information about the configuration and control, we find a linear mapping adequately captures the relationship between this feature vector and the sensed contact forces. A novel Linear Model Learning (LML) algorithm is used to solve for the globally optimal mapping in real time without any matrix inversions, resulting in an algorithm that runs in nearly constant time on a GPU as the model size increases. We validate the proposed approach for connector insertion both in simulation and hardware experiments, where the learned model is combined with an optimization-based controller to achieve smooth insertions in the presence of misalignments and uncertainty. Our website featuring videos, code, and more materials is available at https://model-based-plugging.github.io/.

Sequential recommendation aims to model user preferences based on historical behavior sequences, which is crucial for various online platforms. Data sparsity remains a significant challenge in this area as most users have limited interactions and many items receive little attention. To mitigate this issue, contrastive learning has been widely adopted. By constructing positive sample pairs from the data itself and maximizing their agreement in the embedding space,it can leverage available data more effectively. Constructing reasonable positive sample pairs is crucial for the success of contrastive learning. However, current approaches struggle to generate reliable positive pairs as they either rely on representations learned from inherently sparse collaborative signals or use random perturbations which introduce significant uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach named Semantic Retrieval Augmented Contrastive Learning (SRA-CL), which leverages semantic information to improve the reliability of contrastive samples. SRA-CL comprises two main components: (1) Cross-Sequence Contrastive Learning via User Semantic Retrieval, which utilizes large language models (LLMs) to understand diverse user preferences and retrieve semantically similar users to form reliable positive samples through a learnable sample synthesis method; and (2) Intra-Sequence Contrastive Learning via Item Semantic Retrieval, which employs LLMs to comprehend items and retrieve similar items to perform semantic-based item substitution, thereby creating semantically consistent augmented views for contrastive learning. SRA-CL is plug-and-play and can be integrated into standard sequential recommendation models. Extensive experiments on four public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach.

Model-based deep reinforcement learning has achieved success in various domains that require high sample efficiencies, such as Go and robotics. However, there are some remaining issues, such as planning efficient explorations to learn more accurate dynamic models, evaluating the uncertainty of the learned models, and more rational utilization of models. To mitigate these issues, we present MEEE, a model-ensemble method that consists of optimistic exploration and weighted exploitation. During exploration, unlike prior methods directly selecting the optimal action that maximizes the expected accumulative return, our agent first generates a set of action candidates and then seeks out the optimal action that takes both expected return and future observation novelty into account. During exploitation, different discounted weights are assigned to imagined transition tuples according to their model uncertainty respectively, which will prevent model predictive error propagation in agent training. Experiments on several challenging continuous control benchmark tasks demonstrated that our approach outperforms other model-free and model-based state-of-the-art methods, especially in sample complexity.

High-resolution brain imaging can now capture not just synapse locations but their molecular composition, with the cost of such mapping falling exponentially. Yet such ultrastructural data has so far told us little about local neuronal physiology - specifically, the parameters (e.g., synaptic efficacies, local conductances) that govern neural dynamics. We propose to translate molecularly annotated ultrastructure into physiology, introducing the concept of an ultrastructure-to-dynamics compiler: a learned mapping from molecularly annotated ultrastructure to simulator-ready, uncertainty-aware physiological parameters. The requirement is paired training data, with jointly acquired ultrastructure from imaging, and dynamical responses to perturbations from physiological experiments. With this data we can train models that predict local physiology directly from structure. Such a compiler would support biophysical simulations by turning anatomical maps into models of circuit dynamics, shifting structure-to-function from a descriptive program to a predictive one and opening routes to understanding neural computation and forecasting intervention effects.

We provide evidence of performative chain-of-thought (CoT) in reasoning models, where a model becomes strongly confident in its final answer, but continues generating tokens without revealing its internal belief. Our analysis compares activation probing, early forced answering, and a CoT monitor across two large models (DeepSeek-R1 671B & GPT-OSS 120B) and find task difficulty-specific differences: The model's final answer is decodable from activations far earlier in CoT than a monitor is able to say, especially for easy recall-based MMLU questions. We contrast this with genuine reasoning in difficult multihop GPQA-Diamond questions. Despite this, inflection points (e.g., backtracking, 'aha' moments) occur almost exclusively in responses where probes show large belief shifts, suggesting these behaviors track genuine uncertainty rather than learned "reasoning theater." Finally, probe-guided early exit reduces tokens by up to 80% on MMLU and 30% on GPQA-Diamond with similar accuracy, positioning attention probing as an efficient tool for detecting performative reasoning and enabling adaptive computation.

We present FengWu, an advanced data-driven global medium-range weather forecast system based on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Different from existing data-driven weather forecast methods, FengWu solves the medium-range forecast problem from a multi-modal and multi-task perspective. Specifically, a deep learning architecture equipped with model-specific encoder-decoders and cross-modal fusion Transformer is elaborately designed, which is learned under the supervision of an uncertainty loss to balance the optimization of different predictors in a region-adaptive manner. Besides this, a replay buffer mechanism is introduced to improve medium-range forecast performance. With 39-year data training based on the ERA5 reanalysis, FengWu is able to accurately reproduce the atmospheric dynamics and predict the future land and atmosphere states at 37 vertical levels on a 0.25° latitude-longitude resolution. Hindcasts of 6-hourly weather in 2018 based on ERA5 demonstrate that FengWu performs better than GraphCast in predicting 80\% of the 880 reported predictands, e.g., reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) of 10-day lead global z500 prediction from 733 to 651 m^{2}/s^2. In addition, the inference cost of each iteration is merely 600ms on NVIDIA Tesla A100 hardware. The results suggest that FengWu can significantly improve the forecast skill and extend the skillful global medium-range weather forecast out to 10.75 days lead (with ACC of z500 > 0.6) for the first time.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

Language learners must learn the meanings of many thousands of words, despite those words occurring in complex environments in which infinitely many meanings might be inferred by the learner as a word's true meaning. This problem of infinite referential uncertainty is often attributed to Willard Van Orman Quine. We provide a mathematical formalisation of an ideal cross-situational learner attempting to learn under infinite referential uncertainty, and identify conditions under which word learning is possible. As Quine's intuitions suggest, learning under infinite uncertainty is in fact possible, provided that learners have some means of ranking candidate word meanings in terms of their plausibility; furthermore, our analysis shows that this ranking could in fact be exceedingly weak, implying that constraints which allow learners to infer the plausibility of candidate word meanings could themselves be weak. This approach lifts the burden of explanation from `smart' word learning constraints in learners, and suggests a programme of research into weak, unreliable, probabilistic constraints on the inference of word meaning in real word learners.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

Self-distillation has emerged as an effective post-training paradigm for LLMs, often improving performance while shortening reasoning traces. However, in mathematical reasoning, we find that it can reduce response length while degrading performance. We trace this degradation to the suppression of epistemic verbalization - the model's expression of uncertainty during reasoning. Through controlled experiments varying conditioning context richness and task coverage, we show that conditioning the teacher on rich information suppresses uncertainty expression, enabling rapid in-domain optimization with limited task coverage but harming OOD performance, where unseen problems benefit from expressing uncertainty and adjusting accordingly. Across Qwen3-8B, DeepSeek-Distill-Qwen-7B, and Olmo3-7B-Instruct, we observe performance drops of up to 40%. Our findings highlight that exposing appropriate levels of uncertainty is crucial for robust reasoning and underscore the importance of optimizing reasoning behavior beyond merely reinforcing correct answer traces.

Despite significant strides in factual reliability, errors -- often termed hallucinations -- remain a major concern for generative AI, especially as LLMs are increasingly expected to be helpful in more complex or nuanced setups. Yet even in the simplest setting -- factoid question-answering with clear ground truth-frontier models without external tools continue to hallucinate. We argue that most factuality gains in this domain have come from expanding the model's knowledge boundary (encoding more facts) rather than improving awareness of that boundary (distinguishing known from unknown). We conjecture that the latter is inherently difficult: models may lack the discriminative power to perfectly separate truths from errors, creating an unavoidable tradeoff between eliminating hallucinations and preserving utility. This tradeoff dissolves under a different framing. If we understand hallucinations as confident errors -- incorrect information delivered without appropriate qualification -- a third path emerges beyond the answer-or-abstain dichotomy: expressing uncertainty. We propose faithful uncertainty: aligning linguistic uncertainty with intrinsic uncertainty. This is one facet of metacognition -- the ability to be aware of one's own uncertainty and to act on it. For direct interaction, acting on uncertainty means communicating it honestly; for agentic systems, it becomes the control layer governing when to search and what to trust. Metacognition is thus essential for LLMs to be both trustworthy and capable; we conclude by highlighting open problems for progress towards this objective.

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally expensive or lack calibration. We propose a three-stage pipeline to post-train LLMs to efficiently infer calibrated uncertainty estimates for their responses. First, we compute fine-grained entropy-based uncertainty scores on the training data, capturing the distributional variability of model outputs in embedding space. Second, these scores are calibrated via Platt scaling, producing reliable and human-interpretable uncertainty signals. Finally, the target LLM is post-trained via reinforcement learning to align its policy with these calibrated signals through a verifiable reward function. Unlike post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, our approach provides interpretable and computationally efficient uncertainty estimates at test time. Experiments show that models trained with our pipeline achieve better calibration than baselines and generalize to unseen tasks without further processing, suggesting that they learn a robust uncertainty reasoning behavior.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

In-context learning enables transformers to adapt to new tasks from a few examples at inference time, while grokking highlights that this generalization can emerge abruptly only after prolonged training. We study task generalization and grokking in in-context learning using a Bayesian perspective, asking what enables the delayed transition from memorization to generalization. Concretely, we consider modular arithmetic tasks in which a transformer must infer a latent linear function solely from in-context examples and analyze how predictive uncertainty evolves during training. We combine approximate Bayesian techniques to estimate the posterior distribution and we study how uncertainty behaves across training and under changes in task diversity, context length, and context noise. We find that epistemic uncertainty collapses sharply when the model groks, making uncertainty a practical label-free diagnostic of generalization in transformers. Additionally, we provide theoretical support with a simplified Bayesian linear model, showing that asymptotically both delayed generalization and uncertainty peaks arise from the same underlying spectral mechanism, which links grokking time to uncertainty dynamics.

Large language models have achieved remarkable advances in complex reasoning. However, scaling reasoning post-training with ever-larger corpora can substantially increase training cost without proportional performance gains. In this study, we therefore ask: how far can reasoning supervision be compressed without sacrificing capability? To this end, we propose an uncertainty-guided progressive contraction framework that concentrates supervision and optimization on the reasoning trajectories most valuable for learning. Specifically, rather than treating a teacher-generated chain-of-thought (CoT) as a single realized path, we construct uncertainty-profiled reasoning supervision by building Monte Carlo reasoning trees around intermediate reasoning states to expose process-level uncertainty. This uncertainty first contracts the original corpus into a compact teacher-informed pool. A second, learner-aware contraction then performs online routing during SFT, concentrating optimization according to the student's evolving learning state. Together, the two stages progressively contract both supervision and optimization, substantially reducing the student training budget. Experiments across diverse reasoning benchmarks and LLM families show that our method uses as little as 0.22% of the optimization budget of full-data SFT, over 450x less training exposure, while maintaining or improving reasoning performance. Notably, our framework generalizes well across heterogeneous student families, black-box teachers, and weak-to-strong transfer. This indicates that it is not only a way to accelerate training but can also enhance reasoning capability.

We show that a GPT-3 model can learn to express uncertainty about its own answers in natural language -- without use of model logits. When given a question, the model generates both an answer and a level of confidence (e.g. "90% confidence" or "high confidence"). These levels map to probabilities that are well calibrated. The model also remains moderately calibrated under distribution shift, and is sensitive to uncertainty in its own answers, rather than imitating human examples. To our knowledge, this is the first time a model has been shown to express calibrated uncertainty about its own answers in natural language. For testing calibration, we introduce the CalibratedMath suite of tasks. We compare the calibration of uncertainty expressed in words ("verbalized probability") to uncertainty extracted from model logits. Both kinds of uncertainty are capable of generalizing calibration under distribution shift. We also provide evidence that GPT-3's ability to generalize calibration depends on pre-trained latent representations that correlate with epistemic uncertainty over its answers.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as multi-step decision-making agents, where effective reward design is essential for guiding learning. Although recent work explores various forms of reward shaping and step-level credit assignment, a key signal remains largely overlooked: the intrinsic uncertainty of LLMs. Uncertainty reflects model confidence, reveals where exploration is needed, and offers valuable learning cues even in failed trajectories. We introduce SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards, a reinforcement learning framework that incorporates uncertainty directly into the reward design. SELAUR integrates entropy-, least-confidence-, and margin-based metrics into a combined token-level uncertainty estimate, providing dense confidence-aligned supervision, and employs a failure-aware reward reshaping mechanism that injects these uncertainty signals into step- and trajectory-level rewards to improve exploration efficiency and learning stability. Experiments on two benchmarks, ALFWorld and WebShop, show that our method consistently improves success rates over strong baselines. Ablation studies further demonstrate how uncertainty signals enhance exploration and robustness.

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook the intrinsic uncertainty of tasks, learning all data samples equally. This may lead to suboptimal data efficiency and model performance. In response, we propose uncertainty-aware learning (UAL) to improve the model alignment of different task scenarios, by introducing the sample uncertainty (elicited from more capable LLMs). We implement UAL in a simple fashion -- adaptively setting the label smoothing value of training according to the uncertainty of individual samples. Analysis shows that our UAL indeed facilitates better token clustering in the feature space, validating our hypothesis. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our UAL significantly and consistently outperforms standard supervised fine-tuning. Notably, LLMs aligned in a mixed scenario have achieved an average improvement of 10.62\% on high-entropy tasks (i.e., AlpacaEval leaderboard), and 1.81\% on complex low-entropy tasks (i.e., MetaMath and GSM8K).

Despite increasingly fluent, relevant, and coherent language generation, major gaps remain between how humans and machines use language. We argue that a key dimension that is missing from our understanding of language models (LMs) is the model's ability to interpret and generate expressions of uncertainty. Whether it be the weatherperson announcing a chance of rain or a doctor giving a diagnosis, information is often not black-and-white and expressions of uncertainty provide nuance to support human-decision making. The increasing deployment of LMs in the wild motivates us to investigate whether LMs are capable of interpreting expressions of uncertainty and how LMs' behaviors change when learning to emit their own expressions of uncertainty. When injecting expressions of uncertainty into prompts (e.g., "I think the answer is..."), we discover that GPT3's generations vary upwards of 80% in accuracy based on the expression used. We analyze the linguistic characteristics of these expressions and find a drop in accuracy when naturalistic expressions of certainty are present. We find similar effects when teaching models to emit their own expressions of uncertainty, where model calibration suffers when teaching models to emit certainty rather than uncertainty. Together, these results highlight the challenges of building LMs that interpret and generate trustworthy expressions of uncertainty.

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian NNs to estimate a continuous target as well as its associated evidence in order to learn both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. We accomplish this by placing evidential priors over the original Gaussian likelihood function and training the NN to infer the hyperparameters of the evidential distribution. We additionally impose priors during training such that the model is regularized when its predicted evidence is not aligned with the correct output. Our method does not rely on sampling during inference or on out-of-distribution (OOD) examples for training, thus enabling efficient and scalable uncertainty learning. We demonstrate learning well-calibrated measures of uncertainty on various benchmarks, scaling to complex computer vision tasks, as well as robustness to adversarial and OOD test samples.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often generate outputs that lack grounding in real-world facts, a phenomenon known as hallucinations. Prior research has associated hallucinations with model uncertainty, leveraging this relationship for hallucination detection and mitigation. In this paper, we challenge the underlying assumption that all hallucinations are associated with uncertainty. Using knowledge detection and uncertainty measurement methods, we demonstrate that models can hallucinate with high certainty even when they have the correct knowledge. We further show that high-certainty hallucinations are consistent across models and datasets, distinctive enough to be singled out, and challenge existing mitigation methods. Our findings reveal an overlooked aspect of hallucinations, emphasizing the need to understand their origins and improve mitigation strategies to enhance LLM safety. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/Trust_me_Im_wrong .

We present evidence of substantial benefit from efficient exploration in gathering human feedback to improve large language models. In our experiments, an agent sequentially generates queries while fitting a reward model to the feedback received. Our best-performing agent generates queries using double Thompson sampling, with uncertainty represented by an epistemic neural network. Our results demonstrate that efficient exploration enables high levels of performance with far fewer queries. Further, both uncertainty estimation and the choice of exploration scheme play critical roles.

Despite improvements in performances on different natural language generation tasks, deep neural models are prone to hallucinating facts that are incorrect or nonexistent. Different hypotheses are proposed and examined separately for different tasks, but no systematic explanations are available across these tasks. In this study, we draw connections between hallucinations and predictive uncertainty in conditional language generation. We investigate their relationship in both image captioning and data-to-text generation and propose a simple extension to beam search to reduce hallucination. Our analysis shows that higher predictive uncertainty corresponds to a higher chance of hallucination. Epistemic uncertainty is more indicative of hallucination than aleatoric or total uncertainties. It helps to achieve better results of trading performance in standard metric for less hallucination with the proposed beam search variant.

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an uncertainty estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable reliable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making contexts, but when they present answers without signaling low confidence, users may unknowingly act on erroneous outputs. Prior work shows that LLMs maintain internal uncertainty signals, yet their expressed confidence is often miscalibrated and poorly discriminates between correct and incorrect answers. We investigate whether supervised fine-tuning can improve models' ability to communicate uncertainty and whether such improvements generalize across tasks and domains. We fine-tune LLMs on datasets spanning general knowledge, mathematics, and open-ended trivia, and evaluate two metacognitive tasks: (1) single-question confidence estimation, where the model assigns a numeric certainty to its answer, and (2) pairwise confidence comparison, where the model selects which of two answers it is more likely to answer correctly. We assess generalization to unseen domains, including medical and legal reasoning. Results show that fine-tuning improves calibration (alignment between stated confidence and accuracy) and discrimination (higher confidence for correct vs. incorrect responses) within and across domains. However, gains are task-specific: training on single-question calibration does not transfer to pairwise comparison, and vice versa. Multitask fine-tuning yields broader gains, lowering calibration error and strengthening discrimination in out-of-domain evaluations. This suggests that uncertainty communication in LLMs is trainable but requires multitask training to generalize effectively.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized numerous domains with their impressive performance but still face their challenges. A predominant issue is the propensity for these models to generate non-existent facts, a concern termed hallucination. Our research is motivated by the observation that previous instruction tuning methods force the model to complete a sentence no matter whether the model knows the knowledge or not. When the question is out of the parametric knowledge, it will try to make up something and fail to indicate when it lacks knowledge. In this paper, we present a new approach called Refusal-Aware Instruction Tuning (R-Tuning). This approach is formalized by first identifying the knowledge gap between parametric knowledge and the instruction tuning data. Then, we construct the refusal-aware data based on the knowledge intersection, to tune LLMs to refrain from responding to questions beyond its parametric knowledge. Experimental results demonstrate this new instruction tuning approach effectively improves a model's ability to answer known questions and refrain from answering unknown questions. Furthermore, when tested on out-of-domain datasets, the refusal ability was found to be a meta-skill that could be generalized to other tasks. Further analysis surprisingly finds that learning the uncertainty during training displays a better ability to estimate uncertainty than uncertainty-based testing. Our code will be released at https://github.com/shizhediao/R-Tuning.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in advanced reasoning to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in autonomous agents to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in reinforcement learning to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about model uncertainty, but usually come with a prohibitive computational cost. In this paper we develop a new theoretical framework casting dropout training in deep neural networks (NNs) as approximate Bayesian inference in deep Gaussian processes. A direct result of this theory gives us tools to model uncertainty with dropout NNs -- extracting information from existing models that has been thrown away so far. This mitigates the problem of representing uncertainty in deep learning without sacrificing either computational complexity or test accuracy. We perform an extensive study of the properties of dropout's uncertainty. Various network architectures and non-linearities are assessed on tasks of regression and classification, using MNIST as an example. We show a considerable improvement in predictive log-likelihood and RMSE compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, and finish by using dropout's uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning.

In recent years, active learning has been successfully applied to an array of NLP tasks. However, prior work often assumes that training and test data are drawn from the same distribution. This is problematic, as in real-life settings data may stem from several sources of varying relevance and quality. We show that four popular active learning schemes fail to outperform random selection when applied to unlabelled pools comprised of multiple data sources on the task of natural language inference. We reveal that uncertainty-based strategies perform poorly due to the acquisition of collective outliers, i.e., hard-to-learn instances that hamper learning and generalization. When outliers are removed, strategies are found to recover and outperform random baselines. In further analysis, we find that collective outliers vary in form between sources, and show that hard-to-learn data is not always categorically harmful. Lastly, we leverage dataset cartography to introduce difficulty-stratified testing and find that different strategies are affected differently by example learnability and difficulty.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Although large language models (LLMs) are capable of performing various tasks, they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict whether a response is correct or not. However, most uncertainty quantification methods have been evaluated on questions requiring a single clear answer, ignoring the existence of data uncertainty that arises from irreducible randomness. Instead, these methods only consider model uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge. In this paper, we investigate previous uncertainty quantification methods under the presence of data uncertainty. Our contributions are two-fold: 1) proposing a new Multi-Answer Question Answering dataset, MAQA, consisting of world knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning tasks to evaluate uncertainty quantification regarding data uncertainty, and 2) assessing 5 uncertainty quantification methods of diverse white- and black-box LLMs. Our findings show that entropy and consistency-based methods estimate the model uncertainty well even under data uncertainty, while other methods for white- and black-box LLMs struggle depending on the tasks. Additionally, methods designed for white-box LLMs suffer from overconfidence in reasoning tasks compared to simple knowledge queries. We believe our observations will pave the way for future work on uncertainty quantification in realistic setting.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Large language models are informing decisions with ever-higher stakes. As the consequences of their errors grow, a central question becomes harder to ignore: how much can we trust an individual answer? Yet recognizing when to defer remains difficult because language models can present incorrect conclusions with fluent explanations and an authoritative tone. Uncertainty quantification seeks to address this disconnect by estimating the reliability of individual predictions. However, many existing methods require repeated generations or separately trained components, and their scalar estimates do not reveal where uncertainty arises or how it evolves during reasoning. Recent work has also shown that generation length can be strongly associated with uncertainty estimates and correctness, raising the question of how much of an estimator's predictive power comes from uncertainty-specific information rather than output length alone. Mechanistic interpretability offers a way to address these limitations by connecting human-interpretable concepts to intermediate model states. Building on this capability, we introduce the U-Space, a low-dimensional subspace that makes a model's evolving uncertainty measurable and interpretable. We identify semantic anchors for doubt and certainty, map their unembedding directions back into the residual space, and combine their contrasts into an orthogonal basis. The U-Lens projects each token state onto these basis vectors, yielding an interpretable token-level uncertainty map that can be inspected directly or aggregated into a scalar uncertainty score. Our approach requires no correctness labels, repeated generations, or training. Across reasoning benchmarks, its confidence score outperforms established baselines under both standard and length-controlled evaluation and transfers more reliably than supervised estimators. Code: https://github.com/s2labres/U-Space.

High-quality arguments are an essential part of decision-making. Automatically predicting the quality of an argument is a complex task that recently got much attention in argument mining. However, the annotation effort for this task is exceptionally high. Therefore, we test uncertainty-based active learning (AL) methods on two popular argument-strength data sets to estimate whether sample-efficient learning can be enabled. Our extensive empirical evaluation shows that uncertainty-based acquisition functions can not surpass the accuracy reached with the random acquisition on these data sets.

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for estimating predictive uncertainty; however these require significant modifications to the training procedure and are computationally expensive compared to standard (non-Bayesian) NNs. We propose an alternative to Bayesian NNs that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, requires very little hyperparameter tuning, and yields high quality predictive uncertainty estimates. Through a series of experiments on classification and regression benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates which are as good or better than approximate Bayesian NNs. To assess robustness to dataset shift, we evaluate the predictive uncertainty on test examples from known and unknown distributions, and show that our method is able to express higher uncertainty on out-of-distribution examples. We demonstrate the scalability of our method by evaluating predictive uncertainty estimates on ImageNet.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.