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Oct 16

Inflationary magnetogenesis in Proca electrodynamics with Schwinger particle production

We investigate inflationary magnetogenesis with massive vector fields, including charged scalar particle production via the Schwinger effect and its backreaction on the background electric energy density. Initially neglecting the Schwinger effect, we quantize the vector field and solve the equations of motion for transverse and longitudinal modes, computing the energy momentum tensor. We then incorporate the backreaction of the electric energy density and show that the longitudinal energy density is subleading compared to the electric background. Since the electric energy density dominates the magnetic contribution, we can treat the former separately from the perturbative contributions. We adopt this approach when studying particle production via the Schwinger effect, assuming that its backreaction acts only on the background electric energy density. The latter is computed using a classical background electromagnetic field minimally coupled to a quantum complex scalar field. The magnetic and longitudinal components are instead described through quantum fields. In this framework, the Schwinger production affects only the electric energy density, as long as it remains dominant compared to the other components. As a consistency check, we verify that for a null coupling constant we recover the same electric energy density as obtained within the fully quantum electromagnetic description. Finally, we show that for non-null coupling constants Schwinger particle production drastically reduces the electric energy density during the final stages of inflation.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 3

LoMeVQA: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Longitudinal Medical VQA

In clinical practice, patients often undergo multiple imaging examinations over successive visits, yielding longitudinal data. Modeling such temporal information is crucial for reliable assessment of disease progression and treatment response. However, despite the rapid advancement of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), longitudinal medical visual reasoning remains largely underexplored. To fill this gap, we propose LoMeVQA, a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 206K longitudinal visual question answering (VQA) pairs for temporal medical image analysis. LoMeVQA covers five tasks: progress classification, progress description, progress report generation, differential region grounding, and differential region description. To construct the dataset, we develop an automated pipeline that (1) organizes patient records chronologically, (2) extracts clinically meaningful entities via a medical knowledge graph, and (3) models their temporal evolution to guide large language models in generating high-quality longitudinal VQA pairs. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that both general-purpose and medical-domain MLLMs perform poorly on LoMeVQA, revealing substantial limitations in temporal reasoning. To address these limitations, we introduce MedLong-8B, which achieves state-of-the-art performance across all tasks. Beyond benchmarking, we conduct detailed analyses that uncover key failure modes and shed light on how to improve longitudinal medical visual reasoning. Our data is available at: https://github.com/pepperbubble/LoMeVQA

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 29

LSREP: A Longitudinal State-Replay Protocol for Evaluating Conversational Memory, with ICE v2 as an Audited Local-First Architecture

Conversational memory changes during use, so endpoint question answering alone cannot establish how a persistent state accumulates, ages, or incorporates revisions. We introduce LSREP, a Longitudinal State-Replay Evaluation Protocol combining ordered replay, explicit lifecycle schedules, repeated probes, evolving reference answers, and mechanism-fidelity checks. Its architectural case study is ICE v2, a local-first memory middleware with typed stores, retrieval fusion, and dynamic context budgets. The private, single-user instantiation contains 1,985 turns, 219 distinct probes, and 1,211 probe-checkpoint observations across 52 checkpoints. On three ordinary-density datasets, ICE v2 has a near-zero mean quality difference from vector-RAG while selecting 32% fewer fragments but using 6.6% more estimated prompt tokens. A fourth, dense dataset exposes catastrophic failures of the unbudgeted baseline. The fidelity audit limits attribution: procedural retrieval is defective, several mechanisms are unexercised, and graph utility is not established. In a complementary matched public diagnostic, ICE v2 loses decisively to pure vector-RAG on LongMemEval: 50.8% versus 72.8% in the evidence-only oracle and 43.0% versus 69.5% in full-S. Paired differences are -22.0 points (95% CI [-26.6, -17.4]) and -26.5 ([-31.3, -21.8]). Conservative abstention accompanies severe multi-session and temporal failures. ICE uses less context in this diagnostic, establishing a quality-cost trade-off rather than superior efficiency. Together, replay, fidelity auditing, and public endpoint testing expose distinct failure modes that neither architectural descriptions nor aggregate scores identify alone.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 14

AI-Associated Lexical Shifts Across 34 Languages: Cross-Lingual Convergence and Diachronic Uptake in News Writing

AI-associated lexical shifts have been documented mainly in Scientific English. We extend this work to 34 languages in the WMT News Crawl corpus, refining a split-halves continuation diagnostic that compares GPT-4.1 continuations with matched human gold-standard text. For each language, we derive ranked AI-overused lemmas using log prevalence ratios. We find substantial cross-lingual semantic convergence: semantically related concepts recur across typologically diverse languages, with 'emphasize'-type verbs appearing in 24 of 34 languages. Embedding-based and manual analyses support this pattern. We also examine diachronic uptake in news writing before and after ChatGPT's release. Tracking each language's top 20 AI-overused items, we find prevalence increases in 26 of 34 languages from 2020-2021 to 2023-2024, with a mean change of +15.1%, whilst matched baseline words show no comparable increase (-4.5%). In 10 languages with longer historical coverage, longitudinal analyses show post-2022 increases that exceed the modest shifts observed in earlier periods, though with smaller effect sizes than in Scientific English. We validate our approach extensively, including across seeds, model variants, data sizes, model families, and more. Our findings are consistent with the view that AI-associated lexical preferences extend beyond English and may exert cross-lingual homogenising pressure on global language use.

  • 1 authors
·
May 24

Mapping gravitational-wave backgrounds in modified theories of gravity using pulsar timing arrays

We extend our previous work on applying CMB techniques to the mapping of gravitational-wave backgrounds to backgrounds which have non-GR polarisations. Our analysis and results are presented in the context of pulsar-timing array observations, but the overarching methods are general, and can be easily applied to LIGO or eLISA observations using appropriately modified response functions. Analytic expressions for the pulsar-timing response to gravitational waves with non-GR polarisation are given for each mode of a spin-weighted spherical-harmonic decomposition of the background, which permit the signal to be mapped across the sky to any desired resolution. We also derive the pulsar-timing overlap reduction functions for the various non-GR polarisations, finding analytic forms for anisotropic backgrounds with scalar-transverse ("breathing") and vector-longitudinal polarisations, and a semi-analytic form for scalar-longitudinal backgrounds. Our results indicate that pulsar-timing observations will be completely insensitive to scalar-transverse mode anisotropies in the polarisation amplitude beyond dipole, and anisotropies in the power beyond quadrupole. Analogously to our previous findings that pulsar-timing observations lack sensitivity to tensor-curl modes for a transverse-traceless tensor background, we also find insensitivity to vector-curl modes for a vector-longitudinal background.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 29, 2015

Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning

Longitudinal modelling of Alzheimer's disease progression is clinically useful only if it can describe not just the most likely next diagnosis, but how a patient may evolve over time and how reliable that forecast is. Most deep learning approaches reduce this problem to single-step classification, treating cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia as flat categories while providing limited insight into how uncertainty accumulates across future visits. We propose a probabilistic framework that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. A Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder is adapted with a CORAL ordinal output layer, asymmetric loss weighting, and converter oversampling to respect disease-stage ordering and improve sensitivity to MCI-to-dementia transitions. Conditioned on the learned patient-context representation, an autoregressive Mixture Density Network generates five-year probabilistic trajectories for diagnosis state, CDR Sum of Boxes, MMSE orientation, and hippocampal volume. On ADNI, the model outperforms linear, recurrent, and transformer baselines for next-visit diagnosis prediction, with the strongest gains on MCI-versus-dementia discrimination. Generated trajectories achieve near-nominal 90% credible interval coverage, widening uncertainty across the forecast horizon, and biomarker dynamics consistent with expected Alzheimer's disease progression. We further separate aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty using analytic mixture variance and a five-member bootstrap ensemble, which provides the strongest encoder diversity and output-level epistemic signal. Epistemic uncertainty is higher for rare progression archetypes, MCI and dementia patients, and under external evaluation on OASIS-3, where it increases alongside prediction error.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 22

CheXGround: Anatomical Region Tokens for Grounded Longitudinal Chest X-ray Interpretation

Recent radiology multi-modal language models have made substantial progress in chest X-ray report generation, visual question answering, and temporal reasoning. While longitudinal chest X-ray interpretation compares sequential examinations to describe change, visual grounding aims to connect clinical language with localized image evidence. Although longitudinal modeling and visual grounding have each advanced radiology language models, how localized visual evidence can support longitudinal interpretation remains under-explored. We introduce CheXGround, a region-grounded longitudinal chest X-ray language model that represents paired studies through corresponding anatomical regions. CheXGround extracts anatomical regions from current and prior radiographs, encodes them as temporally enhanced Region-of-Interest (ROI) tokens, and combines them with global temporal image context during generation. To connect these region tokens with clinical text, we propose Temporal Region--Phrase Alignment, a pretraining objective that aligns temporal anatomical representations with localized report phrases. We evaluate CheXGround on single-study and longitudinal Visual Question Answering (VQA), longitudinal findings generation, temporal grounded VQA, and anatomical grounding. Across these tasks, CheXGround improves clinical language quality, temporal reasoning, and localization accuracy over recent baselines. Our results suggest that organizing longitudinal evidence at the anatomical level is a strong representation for grounded radiology language modeling. Project page: https://adonaydem.github.io/chexground-website

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 30

NOAH: Learning the Full Patient Journey. A Longitudinal Multimodal Time-Aware Model for Representation and Forecasting

The digitization of healthcare has generated vast, longitudinal, and multimodal patient records over a lifetime, yet fully exploiting these data to represent and predict patient state trajectories remains a critical challenge. Current AI models often struggle to capture the complex, irregular temporal dynamics and inherent stochasticity of real-world multimodal patient data. Existing AI approaches for modeling longitudinal patient records are predominantly discriminative, limited to a few modalities, constrained by closed categorical vocabularies, treating time as a monotonic inductive bias, or they are limited in forecasting future patient states. We introduce NOAH, a time-aware, task-agnostic, generative transformer model representing and forecasting the full multimodal patient journey. NOAH features a novel bidirectional time integration and a variational latent space to capture the continuous evolution of patient states and the stochasticity of clinical trajectories. Built from over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits of 299,000 patients across the MIMIC dataset family, NOAH natively processes medical images, time-series and numeric signals, categorical events, as well as structured and unstructured clinical records. NOAH is the first truly holistic generative model in its field, enabling autoregressive forecasting with optional time control, zero-shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation. It generates highly informative and predictive patient state representations that demonstrate strong performance in probing for clinical outcomes, 15 ICD chapters, and 29 comorbidities, as well as in time-to-event prediction. Seamlessly handling diverse modalities and complex temporal dynamics, NOAH provides a versatile, task-agnostic, scalable foundation for intelligent predictive systems in personalized clinical care and digital medicine.

TUM-AIMED AIMED
·
Sep 7 2

Exploiting Longitudinal Context in Clinician-Verified Interactive Lesion Tracking

Tracking tumor lesions across serial CT scans is essential for oncological response assessment. Existing automated methods face a fundamental trade-off: end-to-end trackers achieve high automation but offer no opportunity to correct silent tracking failures, while decoupled registration-segmentation pipelines permit user verification yet discard the lesion's prior appearance, limiting accuracy in ambiguous cases. In this work, we propose a Verified Tracking paradigm: a clinician verifies a registration-proposed prompt, which the model leverages alongside the baseline lesion appearance to resolve segmentation ambiguities. We present a unified framework combining early spatial prompt fusion with latent temporal difference weighting for longitudinally-informed segmentation. To address data scarcity, we leverage large-scale synthetic pretraining, proving essential for exploiting longitudinal context, improving performance by up to 4.5 Dice points over training from scratch. Our approach secured first place in the MICCAI autoPET IV challenge. We further curate and release PanTrack, a new longitudinal pancreatic cancer benchmark, to assess out-of-distribution generalization. Experiments show that our model outperforms prior work in both fully automatic and the proposed verified tracking setting offering a clinically safe middle ground between automation and control. Code, model and dataset will be released at https://github.com/MIC-DKFZ/LongiSeg

MIC-DKFZ MIC at DKFZ
·
May 21

EmpathicStories++: A Multimodal Dataset for Empathy towards Personal Experiences

Modeling empathy is a complex endeavor that is rooted in interpersonal and experiential dimensions of human interaction, and remains an open problem within AI. Existing empathy datasets fall short in capturing the richness of empathy responses, often being confined to in-lab or acted scenarios, lacking longitudinal data, and missing self-reported labels. We introduce a new multimodal dataset for empathy during personal experience sharing: the EmpathicStories++ dataset (https://mitmedialab.github.io/empathic-stories-multimodal/) containing 53 hours of video, audio, and text data of 41 participants sharing vulnerable experiences and reading empathically resonant stories with an AI agent. EmpathicStories++ is the first longitudinal dataset on empathy, collected over a month-long deployment of social robots in participants' homes, as participants engage in natural, empathic storytelling interactions with AI agents. We then introduce a novel task of predicting individuals' empathy toward others' stories based on their personal experiences, evaluated in two contexts: participants' own personal shared story context and their reflections on stories they read. We benchmark this task using state-of-the-art models to pave the way for future improvements in contextualized and longitudinal empathy modeling. Our work provides a valuable resource for further research in developing empathetic AI systems and understanding the intricacies of human empathy within genuine, real-world settings.

  • 7 authors
·
May 24, 2024

Extending Mixture of Experts Model to Investigate Heterogeneity of Trajectories: When, Where and How to Add Which Covariates

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 5, 2020

Learning Behavioral Signals from Encrypted Smartphone Network Traffic

Human behavior is challenging to measure continuously at scale, yet traces of daily routines and well-being may be reflected in interactions with personal devices. We investigate whether encrypted smartphone network traffic can serve as a passive sensing signal for behavioral states related to sleep disturbance, stress, and loneliness. To capture both population-level patterns and individual-specific behavior, we employ a transformer-based model with user-specific adapters that learns representations of network activity while accounting for personal baselines and deviations from them. To improve interpretability, we further analyze these representations using sparse representation learning to identify latent behavioral features associated with distinct activity patterns. We relate the resulting features to sleep disturbance, stress, and loneliness using generalized estimating equations with Mundlak decomposition, enabling separation of stable between-person differences from within-person changes over time. Our analysis reveals that the three outcomes are characterized by different temporal dynamics: stress is predominantly associated with persistent between-person variation, loneliness is more strongly linked to within-person fluctuations, and sleep disturbance reflects a combination of both. Importantly, these within-person behavioral signals are not recovered by conventional handcrafted network-traffic features, highlighting the advantages of learned representations for longitudinal behavioral modeling. Overall, our findings demonstrate that encrypted network traffic contains interpretable behavioral information and can support passive, scalable monitoring of behavioral dynamics, particularly changes relative to an individual's typical pattern of activity.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 4

Measuring What the Crawler Sees: Discovery Curves, Core Persistence, and Shell Dynamics in Longitudinal Web Crawls

A longitudinal web crawl is a sequence of partial samples of an evolving URL population. Pairwise containment between two crawls is the standard probe; under a simple urn model of the crawl -- each round samples a fraction of the URLs and replaces a fraction -- it recovers two interpretable rates, per-round survival α and coverage c, but treats the population as uniform and consumes one pair at a time. In this work, we define a formal language for talking about a crawl. We extend this analysis with the discovery curve U(s, T), the cumulative URL footprint over a sliding window of T crawls starting at s, which under the same urn model is also a closed-form function of (α, c). Containment and the discovery curve are then two projections of one process: independent fits agree on (α, c) when the urn is homogeneous, so any disagreement is itself a measurement. Applied to Common Crawl (2020--2025, domain granularity) and to the German Academic Web (GAW, URL granularity), the two projections disagree on both archives, and a two-component urn with a persistent core fraction κ alongside shell parameters (α_partial, c_partial) reconciles the disagreement. A residual on c_partial remains, signaling that the shell itself is not homogeneous; κ is recorded as the scalar entry point to a rank-resolved generalization, which is left to follow-up work. web archive \and crawl coverage \and discovery curve \and urn model \and two-component model \and URL lifetime

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 14

Inverse Bayesian Inference for Extracting Lesion Dynamics from Longitudinal Spectral CT

Longitudinal medical imaging captures temporal evolution of lesions, yet extracting the underlying dynamical parameters governing this evolution remains challenging. We propose an inverse Bayesian framework for inferring lesion dynamics from longitudinal spectral CT. We decompose spectral feature (x) evolution into three components: equation* dx_i{dt} = A_i x_i + B \cdot n + C \cdot Δx_{sat} equation* where A_i captures intrinsic dynamics (lesion-autonomous evolution), B captures local environment tumour burden (organ tumour burden through satellite count coupling), and C captures environment/satellite state change (i.e., whether surrounding lesions move similarly or not). We demonstrate the framework on photon-counting NSCLC CT data from metastases, recovering distinct dynamical regimes: lung lesions exhibit significant satellite count coupling (B=-0.34, p<0.05) suggesting competitive dynamics, while liver lesions show synergistic satellite behaviour coupling (Capprox+1.0, p<0.05). Synthetic validation confirms parameter recovery, and cross-coupling analysis validates that our method detects non-zero coupling when present. This work establishes inverse dynamical inference as a principled methodology for extracting interpretable parameters from longitudinal imaging, moving beyond static feature extraction toward mechanistic characterisation of lesion behaviour. The code and data are available at: https://github.com/lukasf98/inverse-bayesian-inference

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 24

Enforcing temporal consistency in Deep Learning segmentation of brain MR images

Longitudinal analysis has great potential to reveal developmental trajectories and monitor disease progression in medical imaging. This process relies on consistent and robust joint 4D segmentation. Traditional techniques are dependent on the similarity of images over time and the use of subject-specific priors to reduce random variation and improve the robustness and sensitivity of the overall longitudinal analysis. This is however slow and computationally intensive as subject-specific templates need to be rebuilt every time. The focus of this work to accelerate this analysis with the use of deep learning. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The state of art using 3D patches as inputs to modified Unet provides results around {0.91 pm 0.5} Dice and using multi-view atlas in CNNs provide around the same results. In this work, different models are explored, each offers better accuracy and fast results while increasing the segmentation quality. These methods are evaluated on 135 scans from the EADC-ADNI Harmonized Hippocampus Protocol. Proposed CNN based segmentation approaches demonstrate how 2D segmentation using prior slices can provide similar results to 3D segmentation while maintaining good continuity in the 3D dimension and improved speed. Just using 2D modified sagittal slices provide us a better Dice and longitudinal analysis for a given subject. For the ADNI dataset, using the simple UNet CNN technique gives us {0.84 pm 0.5} and while using modified CNN techniques on the same input yields {0.89 pm 0.5}. Rate of atrophy and RMS error are calculated for several test cases using various methods and analyzed.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 13, 2019

Model-agnostic search for the quasinormal modes of gravitational wave echoes

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 2, 2023

Standardizing Longitudinal Radiology Report Evaluation via Large Language Model Annotation

Longitudinal information in radiology reports refers to the sequential tracking of findings across multiple examinations over time, which is crucial for monitoring disease progression and guiding clinical decisions. Many recent automated radiology report generation methods are designed to capture longitudinal information; however, validating their performance is challenging. There is no proper tool to consistently label temporal changes in both ground-truth and model-generated texts for meaningful comparisons. Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising annotation alternative, as they are capable of capturing nuanced linguistic patterns and semantic similarities without extensive manual intervention. They also adapt well to new contexts. In this study, we therefore propose an LLM-based pipeline to automatically annotate longitudinal information in radiology reports. The pipeline first identifies sentences containing relevant information and then extracts the progression of diseases. We evaluate and compare five mainstream LLMs on these two tasks using 500 manually annotated reports. Considering both efficiency and performance, Qwen2.5-32B was subsequently selected and used to annotate another 95,169 reports from the public MIMIC-CXR dataset. Our Qwen2.5-32B-annotated dataset provided us with a standardized benchmark for evaluating report generation models. Using this new benchmark, we assessed seven state-of-the-art report generation models. Our LLM-based annotation method outperforms existing annotation solutions, achieving 11.3\% and 5.3\% higher F1-scores for longitudinal information detection and disease tracking, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/wxinyi1996/Standardizing-Longitudinal-Chest-X-ray-Report-Evaluation-via-Large-Language-Model-Annotation.git.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 29

Multi-mode Pulsations in AGB Stars: Insights from 3D RHD CO5BOLD Simulations

Stars on the AGB can exhibit acoustic pulsation modes of different radial orders, along with non-radial modes. These pulsations are essential to the mass-loss process and influence the evolutionary pathways of AGB stars. P-L relations serve as a valuable diagnostic for understanding stellar evolution along the AGB. 3D RHD simulations provide a powerful tool for investigating pulsation phenomena driven by convective processes and their non-linear coupling with stellar oscillations. We investigate multi-mode pulsations in AGB stars using advanced 3D 'star-in-a-box' simulations with the CO5BOLD code. Signatures of these multi-mode pulsations were weak in our previous 3D models. Our focus is on identifying and characterising the various pulsation modes, examining their persistence and transitions, and comparing the results with 1D model predictions and observational data where applicable. We produced a new model grid comprising AGB stars with current masses of 0.7, 0.8, and 1,M_{odot}. Fourier analysis was applied to dynamic, time-dependent quantities to extract dominant pulsation modes and their corresponding periods. Additionally, wavelet transforms were employed to identify mode-switching behaviour over time. The models successfully reproduce the P-L sequences found in AGB stars. Mode-switching phenomena are found in both the models and wavelet analyses of observational data, allowing us to infer similarities in the underlying pulsation dynamics. These 3D simulations highlight the natural emergence of multi-mode pulsations, including both radial and non-radial modes, driven by the self-consistent interplay of convection and oscillations. Our findings underscore the value of 3D RHD models in capturing the non-linear behaviour of AGB pulsations, providing insights into mode switching, envelope structures, and potential links to episodic mass-loss events.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 17, 2025

How can the use of different modes of survey data collection introduce bias? A simple introduction to mode effects using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs)

Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview and are commonly used in epidemiology. Such data are traditionally collected via a single mode (e.g. face-to-face interview alone), but use of mixed-mode designs (e.g. offering face-to-face interview or online survey) has become more common. This introduces two key challenges. First, individuals may respond differently to the same question depending on the mode; these differences due to measurement are known as 'mode effects'. Second, different individuals may participate via different modes; these differences in sample composition between modes are known as 'mode selection'. Where recognised, mode effects are often handled by straightforward approaches such as conditioning on survey mode. However, while reducing mode effects, this and other equivalent approaches may introduce collider bias in the presence of mode selection. The existence of mode effects and the consequences of na\"ive conditioning may be underappreciated in epidemiology. This paper offers a simple introduction to these challenges using directed acyclic graphs by exploring a range of possible data structures. We discuss the potential implications of using conditioning- or imputation-based approaches and outline the advantages of quantitative bias analyses for dealing with mode effects.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025

Peakbagging the K2 KEYSTONE sample with PBjam: characterising the individual mode frequencies in solar-like oscillators

The pattern of individual mode frequencies in solar-like oscillators provides valuable insight into their properties and interior structures. The identification and characterisation of these modes requires high signal-to-noise and frequency resolution. The KEYSTONE project unlocks the asteroseismic potential of the K2 mission by providing individually reduced, high-quality time series data, global asteroseismic parameters, and spectroscopic analysis for 173 solar-like oscillators. In this work, we build on the KEYSTONE project and present the first analysis of the pattern of individual modes in the oscillation spectra for the K2 KEYSTONE stars. We perform a robust identification and characterisation of the modes through peakbagging methods in the open-source analysis tool PBjam. We present over 6000 mode frequencies, widths, and heights for 168 stars in the sample, covering the HR diagram from FGK dwarfs to sub-giants and the lower red giant branch, providing a significant increase in the number of individual mode frequency detections for main sequence and sub-giant oscillators. This study also presents sample-wide trends of oscillation patterns as a function of the fundamental stellar properties, and improves the precision of the global asteroseismic parameters. These measurements are part of the legacy of the K2 mission, and can be used to perform detailed modelling to improve the precision of fundamental properties of these stars. The results of this analysis provides evidence for the validity of using PBjam to identify and characterise the modes resulting from the observations of the future PLATO mission.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 24, 2025

A Comprehensive Perturbative Formalism for Phase Mixing in Perturbed Disks. II. Phase Spirals in an Inhomogeneous Disk Galaxy with a Non-responsive Dark Matter Halo

We develop a linear perturbative formalism to compute the response of an inhomogeneous stellar disk embedded in a non-responsive dark matter halo to perturbations like bars, spiral arms and satellite galaxy encounters. Without self-gravity to reinforce it, the response of a Fourier mode phase mixes away due to an intrinsic spread in the vertical (Omega_z), radial (Omega_r) and azimuthal (Omega_phi) frequencies, giving rise to local phase-space spirals. Collisional diffusion due to scattering of stars by structures like giant molecular clouds causes super-exponential damping of the phase-spiral amplitude. The z-v_z phase-spiral is 1-armed (2-armed) for vertically anti-symmetric (symmetric) bending (breathing) modes. Only transient perturbations with timescales (tau_{P}) comparable to the vertical oscillation period (tau_z sim 1/Omega_z) trigger z-v_z phase-spirals. Each (n,l,m) mode of the response to impulsive (tau_{P}<tau=1/(nOmega_z+lOmega_r+mOmega_phi)) perturbations is power law (sim tau_{P}/tau) suppressed, but that to adiabatic (tau_{P}>tau) perturbations is exponentially weak (sim left[-left(tau_{mathrm{P}/tauright)^alpharight]}) except resonant (tauto infty) modes. Slower (tau_{P}>tau_z) perturbations, e.g., distant encounters with satellite galaxies, induce stronger bending modes. If the Gaia phase-spiral was triggered by a satellite, Sagittarius is the leading contender as it dominates the Solar neighborhood response of the Milky Way disk to satellite encounters. However, survival against collisional damping necessitates that the impact occurred within sim 0.6-0.7 Gyr ago. We discuss how the detailed galactic potential dictates the phase-spiral shape: phase mixing occurs slower and phase-spirals are less wound in the outer disk and in presence of an ambient halo.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 28, 2023

SADM: Sequence-Aware Diffusion Model for Longitudinal Medical Image Generation

Human organs constantly undergo anatomical changes due to a complex mix of short-term (e.g., heartbeat) and long-term (e.g., aging) factors. Evidently, prior knowledge of these factors will be beneficial when modeling their future state, i.e., via image generation. However, most of the medical image generation tasks only rely on the input from a single image, thus ignoring the sequential dependency even when longitudinal data is available. Sequence-aware deep generative models, where model input is a sequence of ordered and timestamped images, are still underexplored in the medical imaging domain that is featured by several unique challenges: 1) Sequences with various lengths; 2) Missing data or frame, and 3) High dimensionality. To this end, we propose a sequence-aware diffusion model (SADM) for the generation of longitudinal medical images. Recently, diffusion models have shown promising results in high-fidelity image generation. Our method extends this new technique by introducing a sequence-aware transformer as the conditional module in a diffusion model. The novel design enables learning longitudinal dependency even with missing data during training and allows autoregressive generation of a sequence of images during inference. Our extensive experiments on 3D longitudinal medical images demonstrate the effectiveness of SADM compared with baselines and alternative methods. The code is available at https://github.com/ubc-tea/SADM-Longitudinal-Medical-Image-Generation.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 15, 2022

Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 3

Large-Scale, Longitudinal Study of Large Language Models During the 2024 US Election Season

The 2024 US presidential election is the first major contest to occur in the US since the popularization of large language models (LLMs). Building on lessons from earlier shifts in media (most notably social media's well studied role in targeted messaging and political polarization) this moment raises urgent questions about how LLMs may shape the information ecosystem and influence political discourse. While platforms have announced some election safeguards, how well they work in practice remains unclear. Against this backdrop, we conduct a large-scale, longitudinal study of 12 models, queried using a structured survey with over 12,000 questions on a near-daily cadence from July through November 2024. Our design systematically varies content and format, resulting in a rich dataset that enables analyses of the models' behavior over time (e.g., across model updates), sensitivity to steering, responsiveness to instructions, and election-related knowledge and "beliefs." In the latter half of our work, we perform four analyses of the dataset that (i) study the longitudinal variation of model behavior during election season, (ii) illustrate the sensitivity of election-related responses to demographic steering, (iii) interrogate the models' beliefs about candidates' attributes, and (iv) reveal the models' implicit predictions of the election outcome. To facilitate future evaluations of LLMs in electoral contexts, we detail our methodology, from question generation to the querying pipeline and third-party tooling. We also publicly release our dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/sarahcen/llm-election-data-2024

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 22, 2025

How Simple Models Can Reproduce Multiple Epidemic Waves: Peak Topology, Minimal Dynamic Complexity, and Inference for Time-Varying Transmission

Multiple epidemic waves are often taken as evidence that simple compartmental models are structurally inadequate. Yet the key question is not whether a simple model can reproduce multiple peaks, but how much time-varying structure is minimally required to preserve observed epidemic-wave patterns and what can legitimately be inferred from such a representation. Using the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, we develop a framework for peak-preserving dynamic parsimony linking dynamical systems, inverse problems, statistical inference, and infectious-disease modeling. We establish exact multi-wave representability under time-varying transmission, characterize conditions for epidemic peaks and resurgence, and show the incidence-only non-identifiability of time-varying transmission and removal rates. Our main methodological contribution is minimal peak-preserving complexity (MPPC): the smallest dimension of a positive time-varying transmission function whose posterior-predictive trajectories preserve salient features, including peak count, timing, height, trough depth, and whole-curve agreement. We estimate MPPC using peak-aware approximate Bayesian computation and evaluate it through six reproducible stress tests, a Philippine COVID-19 reported-case proof of concept, and short-term future-knot projection. Across diverse data-generating mechanisms, low-dimensional time-varying SIR models can preserve aggregate epidemic-wave topology with modest dynamic complexity. However, accurate trajectory compression does not imply recovery of the underlying mechanism or reliable long-term counterfactual prediction. The framework therefore separates four often-conflated questions: representability, minimal dynamic complexity, mechanistic identifiability, and projection validity, providing a basis for parsimonious modeling of complex epidemic trajectories.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 3

Preliminary sonification of ENSO using traditional Javanese gamelan scales

Sonification -- the mapping of data to non-speech audio -- offers an underexplored channel for representing complex dynamical systems. We treat El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a canonical example of low-dimensional climate chaos, as a test case for culturally-situated sonification evaluated through complex systems diagnostics. Using parameter-mapping sonification of the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index (1870--2024), we encode ENSO variability into two traditional Javanese gamelan pentatonic systems (pelog and slendro) across four composition strategies, then analyze the resulting audio as trajectories in a two-dimensional acoustic phase space. Recurrence-based diagnostics, convex hull geometry, and coupling analysis reveal that the sonification pipeline preserves key dynamical signatures: alternating modes produce the highest trajectory recurrence rates, echoing ENSO's quasi-periodicity; layered polyphonic modes explore the broadest phase space regions; and the two scale families induce qualitatively distinct coupling regimes between spectral brightness and energy -- predominantly anti-phase in pelog but near-independent in slendro. Phase space trajectory analysis provides a rigorous geometric framework for comparing sonification designs within a complex systems context. Perceptual validation remains necessary; we contribute the dynamical systems methodology for evaluating such mappings.

Longitudinal causal inference under informative missingness using the self-censoring model

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 5

AstroM^3: A self-supervised multimodal model for astronomy

While machine-learned models are now routinely employed to facilitate astronomical inquiry, model inputs tend to be limited to a primary data source (namely images or time series) and, in the more advanced approaches, some metadata. Yet with the growing use of wide-field, multiplexed observational resources, individual sources of interest often have a broad range of observational modes available. Here we construct an astronomical multimodal dataset and propose AstroM^3, a self-supervised pre-training approach that enables a model to learn from multiple modalities simultaneously. Specifically, we extend the CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model to a trimodal setting, allowing the integration of time-series photometry data, spectra, and astrophysical metadata. In a fine-tuning supervised setting, our results demonstrate that CLIP pre-training improves classification performance for time-series photometry, where accuracy increases from 84.6% to 91.5%. Furthermore, CLIP boosts classification accuracy by up to 12.6% when the availability of labeled data is limited, showing the effectiveness of leveraging larger corpora of unlabeled data. In addition to fine-tuned classification, we can use the trained model in other downstream tasks that are not explicitly contemplated during the construction of the self-supervised model. In particular we show the efficacy of using the learned embeddings for misclassifications identification, similarity search, and anomaly detection. One surprising highlight is the "rediscovery" of Mira subtypes and two Rotational variable subclasses using manifold learning and dimension reduction algorithm. To our knowledge this is the first construction of an n>2 mode model in astronomy. Extensions to n>3 modes is naturally anticipated with this approach.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 13, 2024

A Review of Longitudinal Radiology Report Generation: Dataset Composition, Methods, and Performance Evaluation

Chest Xray imaging is a widely used diagnostic tool in modern medicine, and its high utilization creates substantial workloads for radiologists. To alleviate this burden, vision language models are increasingly applied to automate Chest Xray radiology report generation (CXRRRG), aiming for clinically accurate descriptions while reducing manual effort. Conventional approaches, however, typically rely on single images, failing to capture the longitudinal context necessary for producing clinically faithful comparison statements. Recently, growing attention has been directed toward incorporating longitudinal data into CXR RRG, enabling models to leverage historical studies in ways that mirror radiologists diagnostic workflows. Nevertheless, existing surveys primarily address single image CXRRRG and offer limited guidance for longitudinal settings, leaving researchers without a systematic framework for model design. To address this gap, this survey provides the first comprehensive review of longitudinal radiology report generation (LRRG). Specifically, we examine dataset construction strategies, report generation architectures alongside longitudinally tailored designs, and evaluation protocols encompassing both longitudinal specific measures and widely used benchmarks. We further summarize LRRG methods performance, alongside analyses of different ablation studies, which collectively highlight the critical role of longitudinal information and architectural design choices in improving model performance. Finally, we summarize five major limitations of current research and outline promising directions for future development, aiming to lay a foundation for advancing this emerging field.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 14, 2025

UniT: Unified Geometry Learning with Group Autoregressive Transformer

Recent feed-forward models have significantly advanced geometry perception for inferring dense 3D structure from sensor observations. However, its essential capabilities remain fragmented across multiple incompatible paradigms, including online perception, offline reconstruction, multi-modal integration, long-horizon scalability, and metric-scale estimation. We present UniT, a unified model built upon a novel Group Autoregressive Transformer, which reformulates these seemingly disparate capabilities within a single framework. The key idea is to treat groups of sensor observations as the basic autoregressive units and predict the corresponding point maps in an anchor-free and scale-adaptive manner. More specifically, diverse view configurations in both online and offline settings are naturally unified within a single group autoregression process. By varying the group size, online mode operates over multiple autoregressive steps with single-frame groups, whereas offline mode aggregates a multi-frame group in a single forward pass. Meanwhile, a queue-style KV caching mechanism ensures bounded autoregressive memory over long horizons. This is enabled by reducing long-range dependencies on early frames through anchor-free relational modeling, thereby allowing outdated memory to be discarded on the fly. To improve metric-scale generalization across scenes, a scale-adaptive geometry loss is further introduced within this framework. It couples relative geometric constraints with a partial absolute scale term, implicitly regularizing global scale and inducing a progressive transition from scale-invariant geometry to metric-scale solutions. Together with a dedicated modal attention module for integrating auxiliary modalities, UniT achieves state-of-the-art performance in unified geometry perception, as validated on ten benchmarks spanning seven representative tasks.

HKUSTGZ HKUSTGZ
·
May 19 1

Operational Modal Analysis of Aeronautical Structures via Tangential Interpolation

Over the last decades, progress in modal analysis has enabled increasingly routine use of modal parameters, including those extracted from in-situ measurements, for applications such as structural health monitoring and finite element model updating. For output-only identification, or Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), widely adopted approaches include Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) methods and the Natural Excitation Technique combined with the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (NExT-ERA). Nevertheless, SSI-based techniques may become cumbersome on large systems, while NExT-ERA fitting can struggle when measurements are contaminated by noise. To alleviate these, this work investigates an OMA frequency-domain formulation for aeronautical structures by coupling the Loewner Framework (LF) with NExT, yielding the proposed NExT-LF method. The method exploits the computational efficiency of LF together with the impulse response function retrieval enabled by NExT. NExT-LF is assessed on two experimental benchmarks: the eXperimental BeaRDS 2 high-aspect-ratio wing main spar and an Airbus Helicopters H135 bearingless main rotor blade. The identified modal parameters are compared against available experimental references and results obtained via SSI with Canonical Variate Analysis and NExT-ERA. The results show that the modes identified by NExT-LF correlate well with benchmark data, particularly for high-amplitude tests and in the low-frequency range.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 1

Brain Latent Progression: Individual-based Spatiotemporal Disease Progression on 3D Brain MRIs via Latent Diffusion

The growing availability of longitudinal Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) datasets has facilitated Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven modeling of disease progression, making it possible to predict future medical scans for individual patients. However, despite significant advancements in AI, current methods continue to face challenges including achieving patient-specific individualization, ensuring spatiotemporal consistency, efficiently utilizing longitudinal data, and managing the substantial memory demands of 3D scans. To address these challenges, we propose Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), a novel spatiotemporal model designed to predict individual-level disease progression in 3D brain MRIs. The key contributions in BrLP are fourfold: (i) it operates in a small latent space, mitigating the computational challenges posed by high-dimensional imaging data; (ii) it explicitly integrates subject metadata to enhance the individualization of predictions; (iii) it incorporates prior knowledge of disease dynamics through an auxiliary model, facilitating the integration of longitudinal data; and (iv) it introduces the Latent Average Stabilization (LAS) algorithm, which (a) enforces spatiotemporal consistency in the predicted progression at inference time and (b) allows us to derive a measure of the uncertainty for the prediction at the global and voxel level. We train and evaluate BrLP on 11,730 T1-weighted (T1w) brain MRIs from 2,805 subjects and validate its generalizability on an external test set comprising 2,257 MRIs from 962 subjects. Our experiments compare BrLP-generated MRI scans with real follow-up MRIs, demonstrating state-of-the-art accuracy compared to existing methods. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/LemuelPuglisi/BrLP.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 12, 2025

Temporal Variations in Pulsar Spectro-Polarimetry: Findings from millisecond pulsar J2144-5237 using Parkes UWL receiver

While the temporal variations of the spectro-polarimetric nature of pulsars remains unexplored, this investigation offers significant potential for uncovering key insights into pulsar emission mechanisms, magnetic field geometry, and propagation effects within the magnetosphere. We developed a package for investigating time-varying spectral behavior for full Stokes parameters and demonstrate it on a millisecond pulsar (MSP) J2144-5237 in a binary system (orbital period ~10 days) using the Parkes UWL receiver. In this study we report rotation measure (RM) variation with orbital phase. We find that the temporal variations in the spectra of Stokes I, Q, and V are generally correlated throughout the orbit, while Stokes U exhibits intervals of both correlation and anticorrelation with Stokes I, depending on the orbital phase. We also provide a Poincare sphere representation of the polarization properties of J2144-5237, demonstrating a systematic temporal change of Poincare sphere location for the main component with orbital phase. To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of time-varying properties of the spectro-polarimetric nature of any pulsars or MSPs. Extending this study to probe the spectro-temporal nature of full Stokes data on a larger sample of MSPs or pulsars has the potential to provide vital information on emission mechanisms inside the magnetosphere, interstellar propagation effects, and binary interactions.

  • 5 authors
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Jan 8

Classification of BCI-EEG based on augmented covariance matrix

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 9, 2023

Stable by Construction: Variational Latent Markov Operators for Long-Horizon PDE Prediction

Neural PDE solvers provide efficient surrogates for time-dependent physical systems, but autoregressive prediction over long horizons remains challenging because local errors can induce distribution shift and accumulate under recursive deployment. We develop a variational approach to this problem by introducing latent Markov dynamics in which physical states are represented by latent distributions and evolved through probabilistic transitions. The framework is formulated directly on function spaces and specialized to functional Gaussian models, where structured latent perturbations induce a spectral geometry and variational transition alignment regularizes the learned dynamics. We further analyze how these mechanisms affect autoregressive error propagation, providing a theoretical connection between variational training and long-horizon prediction. We instantiate the framework as the Variational Autoencoding Markov Operator (VAMO), which combines spatially resolved latent fields, structured Gaussian perturbations, and a neural-operator transition. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of VAMO on several fluid-dynamics benchmarks with prediction horizons extending substantially beyond those represented during training, where it consistently reduces error accumulation and improves rollout stability over several deterministic and noise-injection baselines. Overall, these results highlight variational modeling as a complementary approach to robust long-horizon neural PDE dynamics.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 14

Interpreting effective homogeneous rheologies through a local differential map with application to the Moon

Layered viscoelastic interiors control the frequency dependence of planetary tidal dissipation, but repeated layered Love-number calculations are expensive in long-term orbital and spin integrations. Equivalent homogeneous rheologies provide a cheaper representation of the same response, but their effective parameters do not by themselves identify the interior layers they represent. We develop a local interpretation of such parameters by differentiating the layered-to-homogeneous construction about a fixed-geometry baseline, perturbing only selected layer rigidities and viscosities. We use the pole-residue representation of the degree-two Love number to construct a physical-to-effective transfer matrix. We then use its singular values, resolution matrix, and mode-dominance matrix to determine which physical perturbations are visible in the Love-number response and how they appear in effective-rheology coordinates. Applied to a five-layer lunar model, the full degree-two response is sensitive to seven of eight solid-layer rheological parameters. The single near-null direction is the inner-core rigidity, consistent with shielding by the fluid outer core and with the weak dependence of Love numbers on core elastic structure. Over the LLR frequency interval, fewer physical directions are visible. To first order, the elastic spring, isolated dashpot, and two Voigt elements reproduce the nine-pole response over this interval. Finite perturbations confirm the tangent prediction to within a few percent, with the validity radius limited by a nearly degenerate pair of long-timescale modes.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 30

A Cumulative Framework for Solid Deformation

A cumulative variational framework for solid deformation is proposed. Its central organizing principle is the recursive combination of three structural components of one material body: a compatible Cosserat component, a distributed-incompatibility component, and a defect-source component. At any prescribed external condition these components constitute a combined material state. They are governed under common physical boundary and initial conditions and are coupled through one cumulative energy and the associated field equations. They are not separate boundary-value problems and need not appear in a prescribed temporal sequence. The cumulative character of the framework concerns the response of the combined state to variation of externally prescribed conditions. For the special case of an initially perfect body, loss of stability may produce successive branches with defect and then source participation. Such a sequence is a bifurcation property of the selected initial state and constitutive energy, rather than a defining hierarchy of the framework. A one-dimensional specialization illustrates structural bifurcation, residual deformation and residual stress produced by retained structure, dependence on the initial combined state, directional memory under reverse loading, parametric cumulative hysteresis, and changes of observable tangent stiffness associated with structural stabilization. A spatial extension introduces defect and source gradient terms and yields a size-dependent structural stability operator. For the stable quartic energy considered, the gradient terms regularize nonuniform perturbations but do not by themselves generate a finite-wavelength localization instability on an already stable three-component branch. The examples thereby distinguish consequences of the cumulative structure and energy from phenomena requiring additional constitutive evolution laws.

  • 1 authors
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Sep 16

Persistent Depth Ordering amid Shifting Block-Bypass Responses in Language Model Pretraining

Layer interventions are widely used to probe the internal organization of language models, yet most analyses examine a single training checkpoint even though model representations and computations evolve throughout pretraining. This leaves open which depth-dependent intervention responses reflect persistent organization and which are transient consequences of training. We study this question using single-block identity bypass on fixed teacher-forced contexts across five released trajectories and 11 model-domain combinations. We find that block-bypass responses retain recognizable depth ordering while their magnitudes redistribute: nearby checkpoints preserve stronger rank correspondence than distant ones, and large changes concentrate at positions that recur across text samples and transfer across evaluation domains. Controlled experiments further show that changes in the natural bypass effect cannot be reduced to a single downstream sensitivity: in replicated Pythia runs, local missing-update magnitude grows while the pooled matched downstream response decreases, whereas OLMo-2 7B exhibits a different balance. These matched responses also depend on perturbation strength and direction, without identifying targeted compensation. Together, our results show that longitudinal layer sensitivity is structured but not static, and that single-checkpoint intervention responses should be interpreted in the context of how the underlying perturbation pathway evolves during training.

  • 3 authors
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Sep 30

Progression as Latent Drift: Generative Forecasting of Slow-Evolving Pathologies

Forecasting the future anatomy of slow-evolving neurodegenerative diseases could enable earlier, more targeted intervention and improve clinical trial design, but it remains challenging because true progression signals are subtle in longitudinal MRI. In this low-signal regime, transferring modern generative sequence models directly is unreliable: training is dominated by stable baseline anatomy and confounded by dense, sample-specific nuisance variation. We first provide a theoretical analysis that explains these failures through two modes. Identity collapse occurs when optimization is driven toward reproducing the current anatomy, which prevents the model from learning faint temporal change. The continuous interpolation trap arises when standard smooth networks cannot separate localized biological drift from pervasive noise, which leads to spurious changes that diffuse across the volume. To address both issues, we propose Latent Drift, a progressive generative framework that learns change in a compressed semantic representation rather than synthesizing full-resolution anatomy. This design removes pixel-level identity from the prediction target and concentrates model capacity on progression-relevant dynamics. We further apply Finite Scalar Quantization to the learned change representation, which suppresses small, high-frequency nuisance fluctuations while preserving consistent structural drift. Experiments on longitudinal 3D brain MRI show that Latent Drift improves patient-specific neuro-forecasting over diffusion and autoregressive transformer baselines across generative fidelity and clinically relevant evaluation metrics. Project page: https://cutepkq.github.io/latent-drift{https://cutepkq.github.io/latent-drift}.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 8

Loud or Silent? A Reusable Framework for Per-Modality Failure Analysis in Multimodal Clinical AI

Multimodal clinical models are usually judged on accuracy with every modality present, but deployment removes modalities; an echocardiogram is often unavailable where an ECG is routine. Two questions then matter beyond the size of the accuracy loss: which modality was responsible, and whether the model fails loudly or silently once that modality is dropped. The distinction is per-example and modality-level, and is separate from post-hoc feature attribution (e.g. SHAP). Models are replaced often; the evaluation that answers these questions is reused. We present a model-agnostic modality-failure framework: given N modality embeddings, any mask-aware probe, and labels, it returns a per-example failure taxonomy, a per-modality complementarity matrix that attributes error to modalities, and a loud-vs-silent dropout profile separating monitorable failures from those that pass unflagged far from the decision boundary, using only deployment-observable signals. We release it as a small, unit-tested harness and validate it against planted ground truth. Across seeds it recovers that planted modality dominance and complementary subset, reports per-modality loud-vs-silent rates, and scales to a three-modality complementarity matrix; because the planted structure is known by construction, this validates recovery of per-example attribution rather than clinical performance. We then instantiate the framework on frozen EchoJEPA and HuBERT-ECG embeddings for LVEF and the EF <= 40% HFrEF gate over a paired MIMIC-IV cohort, where on the held-out test split (n = 245) dropping echo nearly doubles error. The narrow echo-to-ECG overlap that bounds cohort size is itself a deployment finding for cardiac foundation models. All of our work can be found at https://github.com/criticaldata/PRIMED-AI.

Diffusion limits of cyclic finite-velocity random motions along vector fields

We investigate diffusion approximations for a class of multivariate inhomogeneous finite-velocity random motions motivated by models of active particles. A particle alternates cyclically among prescribed velocity fields V_1,dots,V_p with random run times and evolves according to either a flight dynamics, consisting of piecewise-linear motion, or a gliding dynamics, in which the particle follows the corresponding velocity flow. Under a Kac-type scaling that couples vanishing run times with diverging particle speed, we prove weak convergence of both processes to multidimensional diffusions. It turns out that the order of successive cyclic motions affects the diffusion limit. In addition to the second-order term generated by fluctuations of the random run times, the limiting drift contains directional derivatives DV_i[V_j] of the underlying vector fields. In Stratonovich form, part of this drift is expressed through their Lie brackets [V_i,V_j]. Thus, the generic non-commutativity of the microscopic motions survives the diffusive scaling and generates a macroscopic drift which depends on the cyclic order. The limiting drift also distinguishes the flight and gliding dynamics, despite their being driven by the same vector fields and run times. Several examples, including run-and-reverse motion and cyclic dynamics generated by multiple vector fields, illustrate how the cyclic switching protocol and the geometry of the underlying velocity fields shape the limiting diffusions.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 30 1

Linear equivalence of nonlinear recurrent neural networks

Large nonlinear recurrent neural networks with random couplings generate high-dimensional, potentially chaotic activity whose structure is of interest in neuroscience and other fields. A fundamental object encoding the collective structure of this activity is the N times N covariance matrix. Prior analytical work on the covariance matrix has been limited to low-dimensional summary statistics. Recent work proposed an ansatz in which, at large N, the covariance matrix for a typical quenched realization takes the same form as that of a linear network with the same couplings, driven by independent noise, with DMFT order parameters setting the transfer function and the noise spectrum. Here, we derive this ansatz using the two-site cavity method, providing two derivations with complementary perspectives. The first decomposes each unit's activity into a linear response to its local field and a nonlinear residual, and shows that cross-covariances between residuals at distinct sites are strongly suppressed, so the residuals act as independent noise driving a linear network. The second derives a self-consistent matrix equation for the covariance matrix. A naive Gaussian closure for the joint statistics of local fields at distinct sites misses cross terms that, in a linear network, would be generated by an external drive. The cavity method recovers these terms from non-Gaussian contributions, revealing an emergent external drive. Higher-order cross-site moments follow a Wick-like decomposition into products of pairwise covariances at leading order, reducing them to the linear-equivalent form. We verify the predictions in simulations. These results extend linear equivalence from feedforward high-dimensional nonlinear systems, where the activations are independent of the weights, to recurrent networks, where the activations are correlated with the couplings that generate them.

  • 1 authors
·
May 4

TimeFlow: Temporal Conditioning for Longitudinal Brain MRI Registration and Aging Analysis

Longitudinal brain analysis is essential for understanding healthy aging and identifying pathological deviations. Longitudinal registration of sequential brain MRI underpins such analyses. However, existing methods are limited by reliance on densely sampled time series, a trade-off between accuracy and temporal smoothness, and an inability to prospectively forecast future brain states. To overcome these challenges, we introduce TimeFlow, a learning-based framework for longitudinal brain MRI registration. TimeFlow uses a U-Net backbone with temporal conditioning to model neuroanatomy as a continuous function of age. Given only two scans from an individual, TimeFlow estimates accurate and temporally coherent deformation fields, enabling non-linear extrapolation to predict future brain states. This is achieved by our proposed inter-/extra-polation consistency constraints applied to both the deformation fields and deformed images. Remarkably, these constraints preserve temporal consistency and continuity without requiring explicit smoothness regularizers or densely sampled sequential data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TimeFlow outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both future timepoint forecasting and registration accuracy. Moreover, TimeFlow supports novel biological brain aging analyses by differentiating neurodegenerative trajectories from normal aging without requiring segmentation, thereby eliminating the need for labor-intensive annotations and mitigating segmentation inconsistency. TimeFlow offers an accurate, data-efficient, and annotation-free framework for longitudinal analysis of brain aging and chronic diseases, capable of forecasting brain changes beyond the observed study period.

CFB-GBM v2.0: An Augmented Longitudinal Dataset for Multi-Modal Glioblastoma Segmentation, Radiomics, and RANO Progression Tracking

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most aggressive primary brain tumor in adults, with a median overall survival of 15 months. Longitudinal, multi-modal imaging datasets with comprehensive clinical and treatment data are essential to support the development of reproducible computational methods for treatment response prediction, disease progression modelling, and personalized medicine. We present CFB-GBM v2.0, an extension of our previously released CFB-GBM dataset comprising 264 GBM patients treated according to the standard Stupp protocol. The primary contribution of this release is the completion of Gross Tumour Volume (GTV) delineations across all available timepoints (t_0, t_1 and t_2), increasing the overall GTV completion rate from 35% to 97%. This was achieved using a nnU-Net model pre-trained on BraTS 2021 and fine-tuned on CFB-GBM ground-truth contours, with the generated segmentations validated by five radiation oncologists. From these longitudinal GTV annotations, volumetric RANO 2.0 response category labels were derived for all available temporality pairs (t_0 rightarrow t_1, t_0 rightarrow t_2 and t_1 rightarrow t_2). To further ease dataset usability and reproducibility, brain masks computed with HD-BET and pre-computed radiomic features extracted with PyRadiomics are provided for each patient timepoint and MRI modality. Additionally, the WHO classification guideline (2016 vs. 2021) applicable to each patient's diagnosis is now explicitly documented. CFB-GBM v2.0 is publicly available on The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) at https://www.cancerimagingarchive.net/collection/cfb-gbm .

  • 24 authors
·
Aug 17

Normal-Field Evolution and the Breakdown of Classical Tearing in Current Sheets

Classical resistive tearing theory assumes a prescribed current-sheet equilibrium, but a finite normal magnetic field can evolve the background on the tearing timescale. For a transversely pressure-balanced Harris profile of initial half-thickness a and asymptotic reconnecting-field magnitude B_0, threaded by uniform B_n (ξ=B_n/B_0), we derive an exact evolution in ideal magnetohydrodynamics: counter-propagating Alfvenic fronts broaden the neutral layer and generate a central sheet-parallel flow with shear at its flanks. Inner-layer estimates recover ξ_{crit}sim S^{-3/4} for breakdown of the classical resistive balance, where S is the Lundquist number based on a. Numerical frozen-profile calculations show loss of central resistive dominance and decreasing tearing growth as the neutral layer expands. Eigenfunction comparisons at fixed wavenumber and predominantly Doppler-shifted propagation support a normal-field-modified continuation of classical tearing. The normal field supplies no net perturbation energy. Energy extraction from the reconnecting-field gradient weakens as the sheet broadens. The velocity-gradient contribution becomes comparable when the neutral-layer width approaches the initial sheet thickness, without reversing the decline in growth. For S=10^6, Pr_m=0, and ξ=10^{-4}, the maximum growth rate falls by a factor of about ten from its initial value at neutral-layer half-width wsimeq1.59a, where the growth and broadening times become equal. Only about 0.18 additional upper-envelope e-folds are estimated between this crossing and w/a=2, where the growth rate is about 25 times smaller than its initial value. These results support dynamical suppression of further linear amplification over the sampled evolution, even though the instantaneous spectrum remains unstable.

  • 2 authors
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Sep 29

LongCounsel-8: A Benchmark Suite for Longitudinal Depression Tracking from Multi-Session Counseling Dialogues

Tracking depression from multi-session counseling dialogues requires estimating both current symptom severity and how it changes across sessions. Yet progress on this task is constrained by the scarcity of longitudinal counseling data with standardized session-level depression labels. Existing resources typically provide either multi-session conversations without depression labels or labeled interviews in a single session. Building such a benchmark poses three challenges: maintaining longitudinal consistency and diversity, grounding symptom progression in empirical patterns, and expressing controlled depression states naturally without exposing target labels. To address these challenges, we introduce LongCounsel-8, a benchmark suite of three independently generated datasets totaling 7,749 five-session counseling trajectories, grounded in real-world client profiles, depression trajectories, symptom compositions, and counseling patterns. We combine profile-grounded simulation, empirically informed state construction, and indirect behavioral realization to address these challenges. Across the benchmark, simulated self-reports closely recover the controlled states, supporting label fidelity. Experiments on existing depression tracking methods reveal three key findings: (1) lower single-session score error does not guarantee accurate identification of trend, i.e., improvement or worsening; (2) existing methods are consistently less reliable on worsening trajectories; and (3) additional session history may reduce the accuracy of trend prediction. Together, these findings establish LongCounsel-8 as a foundation for advancing depression assessment from static, single-session prediction toward reliable longitudinal tracking of mental-health change.

  • 3 authors
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Sep 2

Transition from decaying to decayless kink oscillations of solar coronal loops

The transition of an impulsively excited kink oscillation of a solar coronal loop to an oscillation with a stationary amplitude, i.e., the damping pattern, is determined using the low-dimensional self-oscillation model. In the model, the decayless kink oscillations are sustained by the interaction of the oscillating loop with an external quasi-steady flow. The analytical solution is based on the assumption that the combined effect of the effective dissipation, for example, by resonant absorption, and interaction with an external flow, is weak. The effect is characterised by a dimensionless coupling parameter. The damping pattern is found to depend upon the initial amplitude and the coupling parameter. The approximate expression shows a good agreement with a numerical solution of the self-oscillation equation. The plausibility of the established damping pattern is demonstrated by an observational example. Notably, the damping pattern is not exponential, and the characteristic decay time is different from the time determined by the traditionally used exponential damping fit. Implications of this finding for seismology of the solar coronal plasmas are discussed. In particular, it is suggested that a very rapid, in less than the oscillation period, decay of the oscillation to the stationary level, achieved for larger values of the coupling parameter, can explain the relative rareness of the kink oscillation events.

  • 3 authors
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Jun 10, 2024

Unify Change Point Detection and Segment Classification in a Regression Task for Transportation Mode Identification

Identifying travelers' transportation modes is important in transportation science and location-based services. It's appealing for researchers to leverage GPS trajectory data to infer transportation modes with the popularity of GPS-enabled devices, e.g., smart phones. Existing studies frame this problem as classification task. The dominant two-stage studies divide the trip into single-one mode segments first and then categorize these segments. The over segmentation strategy and inevitable error propagation bring difficulties to classification stage and make optimizing the whole system hard. The recent one-stage works throw out trajectory segmentation entirely to avoid these by directly conducting point-wise classification for the trip, whereas leaving predictions dis-continuous. To solve above-mentioned problems, inspired by YOLO and SSD in object detection, we propose to reframe change point detection and segment classification as a unified regression task instead of the existing classification task. We directly regress coordinates of change points and classify associated segments. In this way, our method divides the trip into segments under a supervised manner and leverage more contextual information, obtaining predictions with high accuracy and continuity. Two frameworks, TrajYOLO and TrajSSD, are proposed to solve the regression task and various feature extraction backbones are exploited. Exhaustive experiments on GeoLife dataset show that the proposed method has competitive overall identification accuracy of 0.853 when distinguishing five modes: walk, bike, bus, car, train. As for change point detection, our method increases precision at the cost of drop in recall. All codes are available at https://github.com/RadetzkyLi/TrajYOLO-SSD.

  • 2 authors
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Dec 7, 2023

Droplet-triggered Faraday waves in a vertically forced bath

Repeated impacts of a droplet on a vertically forced bath can produce a growing Faraday-wave response under forcing conditions for which the corresponding initially undisturbed bath remains linearly stable. We investigate this mechanism using axisymmetric two-phase direct numerical simulations over a wide range of Reynolds and Weber numbers. The resulting phenomenological regime map identifies quasi-periodic, decaying, faint, and unstable-bath responses. Along the parameter path considered here, the transition to the unstable-bath regime occurs over a narrow range of Weber numbers and varies only weakly with Reynolds number. In the unstable regime, the bath develops a coherent subharmonic response at half the forcing frequency, while disturbances in the decaying regime remain broadband and weaken between successive rebounds. Bath-only simulations show that a finite-amplitude perturbation representative of droplet impact can seed the confined radial mode susceptible to parametric forcing, initiating a growing subharmonic response below the linear instability threshold of the initially flat bath. A reduced capillary-dominated model provides a scaling estimate for the impact-equivalent perturbation amplitude, and bath-only simulations initialized with these perturbations reproduce the bounded-to-growing transition observed in the coupled simulations. Floquet analysis of the finite cylindrical bath identifies the first axisymmetric Neumann mode as having the lowest subharmonic instability threshold. A time-resolved Bessel decomposition independently shows that the growing bath response is dominated by the same radial mode, while the droplet-induced subharmonic response projects predominantly onto this structure. These results identify a finite-amplitude route by which localized droplet impacts can access Faraday-wave dynamics below the linear onset threshold of an initially undisturbed bath.

  • 2 authors
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Oct 3

Automated Chronotyping from a Daily Calendar using Machine Learning

Chronotype compares individuals' circadian phase to others. It contextualizes mental health risk assessments and detection of social jet lag, which can hamper mental health and cognitive performance. Existing ways of determining chronotypes, such as Dim Light Melatonin Onset (DLMO) or the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ), are limited by being discrete in time and time-intensive to update, meaning they rarely capture real-world variability across time. Chronotyping users based on a daily planner app might augment existing methods to enable assessment continuously and at scale. This paper reports the construction of a supervised binary classifier that attempts to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. 1,460 registered users from the Owaves app opted in by filling out the MEQ survey between July 14, 2022, and May 1, 2023. 142 met the eligibility criteria. We used multimodal app data from individuals identified as morning and evening types from MEQ data, basing the classifier on app time series data. This included daily timing for 8 main lifestyle activity types: exercise, sleep, social interactions, meal times, relaxation, work, play, and miscellaneous, as defined in the app. The timing of activities showed substantial change across time, as well as heterogeneity by activity type. Our novel chronotyping classifier was able to predict the morningness and eveningness of its users with an ROC AUC of 0.70. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of chronotype classification from multimodal, real-world app data, while highlighting fundamental challenges to applying discrete and fixed labels to complex, dynamic, multimodal behaviors. Our findings suggest a potential for real-time monitoring of shifts in chronotype specific to different causes (i.e. types of activity), which could feasibly be used to support future, prospective mental health support research.

  • 7 authors
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Jul 8, 2024