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Oct 16

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. IV. Lens Mass and Distance Measurements

As part of the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS), the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) will use microlensing to discover cold outer planets and free-floating planets unbound to stars. NASA has established several science requirements for the GBTDS to ensure RGES success. A key advantage of RGES is Roman's high angular resolution, which will allow detection of flux from many host stars. One requirement specifies that Roman must measure the masses and distances of 40% of detected planet hosts with 20% precision or better. To test this, we simulated microlensing events toward the GBTDS fields and used Fisher matrix analysis to estimate light curve parameter uncertainties. Combining these with Roman imaging observables (lens flux, relative lens-source proper motion), we estimated the achievable precision of lens mass and distance measurements. Using pyLIMASS, a publicly available code for estimating lens properties, we applied this analysis to 3,000 simulated events. Assuming the Cassan et al. (2012) exoplanet mass function, we find that >40% of host stars meet the required 20% precision threshold, confirming that the GBTDS can satisfy the mission requirement. We validated our approach by comparing our inferred lens masses and distances to empirical measurements from detailed image-constrained light curve modeling of historical microlensing events with Hubble and Keck follow-up imaging. Our results agree within roughly 1 sigma, demonstrating that both approaches yield consistent and reliable mass and distance estimates, and confirming the robustness of our simulations for Roman-era microlensing science.

  • 57 authors
·
Oct 23, 2025

TDCOSMO XVII. New time delays in 22 lensed quasars from optical monitoring with the ESO-VST 2.6m and MPG 2.2m telescopes

We present new time delays, the main ingredient of time delay cosmography, for 22 lensed quasars resulting from high-cadence r-band monitoring on the 2.6 m ESO VLT Survey Telescope and Max-Planck-Gesellschaft 2.2 m telescope. Each lensed quasar was typically monitored for one to four seasons, often shared between the two telescopes to mitigate the interruptions forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample of targets consists of 19 quadruply and 3 doubly imaged quasars, which received a total of 1 918 hours of on-sky time split into 21 581 wide-field frames, each 320 seconds long. In a given field, the 5-{\sigma} depth of the combined exposures typically reaches the 27th magnitude, while that of single visits is 24.5 mag - similar to the expected depth of the upcoming Vera-Rubin LSST. The fluxes of the different lensed images of the targets were reliably de-blended, providing not only light curves with photometric precision down to the photon noise limit, but also high-resolution models of the targets whose features and astrometry were systematically confirmed in Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This was made possible thanks to a new photometric pipeline, lightcurver, and the forward modelling method STARRED. Finally, the time delays between pairs of curves and their uncertainties were estimated, taking into account the degeneracy due to microlensing, and for the first time the full covariance matrices of the delay pairs are provided. Of note, this survey, with 13 square degrees, has applications beyond that of time delays, such as the study of the structure function of the multiple high-redshift quasars present in the footprint at a new high in terms of both depth and frequency. The reduced images will be available through the European Southern Observatory Science Portal.

  • 32 authors
·
Apr 3, 2025

ORACLE: A Real-Time, Hierarchical, Deep-Learning Photometric Classifier for the LSST

We present ORACLE, the first hierarchical deep-learning model for real-time, context-aware classification of transient and variable astrophysical phenomena. ORACLE is a recurrent neural network with Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and has been trained using a custom hierarchical cross-entropy loss function to provide high-confidence classifications along an observationally-driven taxonomy with as little as a single photometric observation. Contextual information for each object, including host galaxy photometric redshift, offset, ellipticity and brightness, is concatenated to the light curve embedding and used to make a final prediction. Training on sim0.5M events from the Extended LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge, we achieve a top-level (Transient vs Variable) macro-averaged precision of 0.96 using only 1 day of photometric observations after the first detection in addition to contextual information, for each event; this increases to >0.99 once 64 days of the light curve has been obtained, and 0.83 at 1024 days after first detection for 19-way classification (including supernova sub-types, active galactic nuclei, variable stars, microlensing events, and kilonovae). We also compare ORACLE with other state-of-the-art classifiers and report comparable performance for the 19-way classification task, in addition to delivering accurate top-level classifications much earlier. The code and model weights used in this work are publicly available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/uiucsn/ELAsTiCC-Classification).

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 2, 2025