Daily Papers

With advances in neural recording techniques, neuroscientists are now able to record the spiking activity of many hundreds of neurons simultaneously, and new statistical methods are needed to understand the structure of this large-scale neural population activity. Although previous work has tried to summarize neural activity within and between known populations by extracting low-dimensional latent factors, in many cases what determines a unique population may be unclear. Neurons differ in their anatomical location, but also, in their cell types and response properties. To identify populations directly related to neural activity, we develop a clustering method based on a mixture of dynamic Poisson factor analyzers (mixDPFA) model, with the number of clusters and dimension of latent factors for each cluster treated as unknown parameters. To analyze the proposed mixDPFA model, we propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to efficiently sample its posterior distribution. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find that it can accurately recover the unknown parameters and the true clustering in the model, and is insensitive to the initial cluster assignments. We then apply the proposed mixDPFA model to multi-region experimental recordings, where we find that the proposed method can identify novel, reliable clusters of neurons based on their activity, and may, thus, be a useful tool for neural data analysis.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) models scale capacity but often suffer from representation collapse and gradient instability. We propose Dynamic Subspace Composition (DSC), a framework that approximates context-dependent weights via a state-dependent, sparse expansion of a shared basis bank. Formally, DSC models the weight update as a residual trajectory within a Star- Shaped Domain, employing a Magnitude-Gated Simplex Interpolation to ensure continuity at the identity. Unlike standard Mixture-of-LoRAs, which incurs O(M rd) parameter complexity by retrieving independent rank-r matrices, DSC constructs a compositional rank-K approximation from decoupled unit-norm basis vectors. This reduces parameter complexity to O(M d) and memory traffic to O(Kd), while Frame-Theoretic regularization and spectral constraints provide rigorous worst-case bounds on the dynamic update. The code is available at https://github. com/VladimerKhasia/DSC

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

In this paper, we introduce a novel dynamic expert selection framework for Mixture of Experts (MoE) models, aiming to enhance computational efficiency and model performance by adjusting the number of activated experts based on input difficulty. Unlike traditional MoE approaches that rely on fixed Top-K routing, which activates a predetermined number of experts regardless of the input's complexity, our method dynamically selects experts based on the confidence level in expert selection for each input. This allows for a more efficient utilization of computational resources, activating more experts for complex tasks requiring advanced reasoning and fewer for simpler tasks. Through extensive evaluations, our dynamic routing method demonstrates substantial improvements over conventional Top-2 routing across various benchmarks, achieving an average improvement of 0.7% with less than 90% activated parameters. Further analysis shows our model dispatches more experts to tasks requiring complex reasoning skills, like BBH, confirming its ability to dynamically allocate computational resources in alignment with the input's complexity. Our findings also highlight a variation in the number of experts needed across different layers of the transformer model, offering insights into the potential for designing heterogeneous MoE frameworks. The code and models are available at https://github.com/ZhenweiAn/Dynamic_MoE.

Mixture of Experts (MoE), an ensemble of specialized models equipped with a router that dynamically distributes each input to appropriate experts, has achieved successful results in the field of machine learning. However, theoretical understanding of this architecture is falling behind due to its inherent complexity. In this paper, we theoretically study the sample and runtime complexity of MoE following the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) when learning a regression task with an underlying cluster structure of single index models. On the one hand, we prove that a vanilla neural network fails in detecting such a latent organization as it can only process the problem as a whole. This is intrinsically related to the concept of information exponent which is low for each cluster, but increases when we consider the entire task. On the other hand, we show that a MoE succeeds in dividing this problem into easier subproblems by leveraging the ability of each expert to weakly recover the simpler function corresponding to an individual cluster. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore the benefits of the MoE framework by examining its SGD dynamics in the context of nonlinear regression.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

X-ray observing facilities, such as the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the eROSITA, have detected millions of astronomical sources associated with high-energy phenomena. The arrival of photons as a function of time follows a Poisson process and can vary by orders-of-magnitude, presenting obstacles for common tasks such as source classification, physical property derivation, and anomaly detection. Previous work has either failed to directly capture the Poisson nature of the data or only focuses on Poisson rate function reconstruction. In this work, we present Poisson Process AutoDecoder (PPAD). PPAD is a neural field decoder that maps fixed-length latent features to continuous Poisson rate functions across energy band and time via unsupervised learning. PPAD reconstructs the rate function and yields a representation at the same time. We demonstrate the efficacy of PPAD via reconstruction, regression, classification and anomaly detection experiments using the Chandra Source Catalog.

Dynamic graph clustering aims to detect and track time-varying clusters in dynamic graphs, revealing the evolutionary mechanisms of complex real-world dynamic systems. Matrix factorization-based methods are promising approaches for this task; however, these methods often struggle with scalability and can be time-consuming when applied to large-scale dynamic graphs. Moreover, they tend to lack robustness and are vulnerable to real-world noisy data. To address these issues, we make three key contributions. First, to improve scalability, we propose temporal separated matrix factorization, where a single matrix is divided into multiple smaller matrices for independent factorization, resulting in faster computation. Second, to improve robustness, we introduce bi-clustering regularization, which jointly optimizes graph embedding and clustering, thereby filtering out noisy features from the graph embeddings. Third, to further enhance effectiveness and efficiency, we propose selective embedding updating, where we update only the embeddings of dynamic nodes while the embeddings of static nodes are fixed among different timestamps. Experimental results on six synthetic and five real-world benchmarks demonstrate the scalability, robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method. Source code is available at https://github.com/Clearloveyuan/DyG-MF.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Discrete diffusion or flow models could enable faster and more controllable sequence generation than autoregressive models. We show that na\"ive linear flow matching on the simplex is insufficient toward this goal since it suffers from discontinuities in the training target and further pathologies. To overcome this, we develop Dirichlet flow matching on the simplex based on mixtures of Dirichlet distributions as probability paths. In this framework, we derive a connection between the mixtures' scores and the flow's vector field that allows for classifier and classifier-free guidance. Further, we provide distilled Dirichlet flow matching, which enables one-step sequence generation with minimal performance hits, resulting in O(L) speedups compared to autoregressive models. On complex DNA sequence generation tasks, we demonstrate superior performance compared to all baselines in distributional metrics and in achieving desired design targets for generated sequences. Finally, we show that our classifier-free guidance approach improves unconditional generation and is effective for generating DNA that satisfies design targets. Code is available at https://github.com/HannesStark/dirichlet-flow-matching.

The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) generate sequences by progressively unmasking several tokens per denoising step, but their reverse process is typically factorized over positions, limiting sample quality in the few-step regime where diffusion's speed advantage over autoregressive decoding matters most. A recent line of work introduces a continuous Gaussian latent, trained as a variational autoencoder, to capture correlations across positions, but such approaches are prone to posterior collapse, where the latent is silently ignored. We propose Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts (E-MoE), which builds the reverse process as a mixture of factorized distributions over a discrete shared latent given by the expert-routing decisions of a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) backbone, without increasing active parameters over the factorized baseline. Across synthetic multi-modal benchmarks, binarized MNIST, and LM1B, E-MoE improves few-step generation over factorized baselines.

The Mixture of Experts architecture allows for outrageously large neural networks by scaling model parameter size independently from computational demand (FLOPs). However, current DNN frameworks cannot effectively support the dynamic data flow in Mixture of Experts, and implementations on top of these frameworks need to use workarounds that introduce significant overheads. To address the limitation of these frameworks, we present DynaMoE, a DNN library that uses dynamic recompilations to optimize and adapt the use of computational resources to the dynamic needs of Mixture of Experts models. Our evaluation shows that DynaMoE achieves a 1.8x speedup and supports 2.3x larger model sizes when compared to existing MoE systems, even when not using recompilations. We then present further optimizations enabled by dynamic recompilations that yield an additional 1.7x speedup while simultaneously reducing memory pressure and improving model quality.

Across many scientific fields, measurements often represent the number of times an event occurs. For example, a document can be represented by word occurrence counts, neural activity by spike counts per time window, or online communication by daily email counts. These measurements yield high-dimensional count data that often approximate a Poisson distribution, frequently with low rates that produce substantial sparsity and complicate downstream analysis. A useful approach is to embed the data into a low-dimensional space that preserves meaningful structure, commonly termed dimensionality reduction. Yet existing dimensionality reduction methods, including both linear (e.g., PCA) and nonlinear approaches (e.g., t-SNE), often assume continuous Euclidean geometry, thereby misaligning with the discrete, sparse nature of low-rate count data. Here, we propose p-SNE (Poisson Stochastic Neighbor Embedding), a nonlinear neighbor embedding method designed around the Poisson structure of count data, using KL divergence between Poisson distributions to measure pairwise dissimilarity and Hellinger distance to optimize the embedding. We test p-SNE on synthetic Poisson data and demonstrate its ability to recover meaningful structure in real-world count datasets, including weekday patterns in email communication, research area clusters in OpenReview papers, and temporal drift and stimulus gradients in neural spike recordings.

As foundational models reshape scientific discovery, a bottleneck persists in dynamical system reconstruction (DSR): the ability to learn across system hierarchies. Many meta-learning approaches have been applied successfully to single systems, but falter when confronted with sparse, loosely related datasets requiring multiple hierarchies to be learned. Mixture of Experts (MoE) offers a natural paradigm to address these challenges. Despite their potential, we demonstrate that naive MoEs are inadequate for the nuanced demands of hierarchical DSR, largely due to their gradient descent-based gating update mechanism which leads to slow updates and conflicted routing during training. To overcome this limitation, we introduce MixER: Mixture of Expert Reconstructors, a novel sparse top-1 MoE layer employing a custom gating update algorithm based on K-means and least squares. Extensive experiments validate MixER's capabilities, demonstrating efficient training and scalability to systems of up to ten parametric ordinary differential equations. However, our layer underperforms state-of-the-art meta-learners in high-data regimes, particularly when each expert is constrained to process only a fraction of a dataset composed of highly related data points. Further analysis with synthetic and neuroscientific time series suggests that the quality of the contextual representations generated by MixER is closely linked to the presence of hierarchical structure in the data.

Multivariate time-series data often exhibit complex temporal dependencies, irregular sampling, and heterogeneous dynamics across multiple time scales, making accurate sequence modeling particularly challenging. Traditional recurrent neural networks (RNNs), such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, operate in discrete time and may struggle to effectively capture continuous and irregular temporal behaviors. Liquid Neural Networks (LNNs) address some of these limitations through continuous-time dynamics, but standard LNN architectures typically rely on a single dynamical system, limiting their ability to model heterogeneous temporal patterns. To address these challenges, we propose a Multi-Rate Mixture-of-Experts (MR-MoE) framework built on top of Liquid Neural Networks. In the proposed architecture, multiple LNN-based experts operate at distinct time scales, enabling the model to explicitly separate fast-changing dynamics from slow-evolving temporal trends. A gating network further enables adaptive expert specialization based on input conditions. In addition, we incorporate both feature-level and temporal attention mechanisms to improve robustness, interpretability, and long-range dependency modeling. Feature-level attention suppresses noisy or irrelevant variables, while temporal attention selectively focuses on informative historical states. We evaluate the proposed framework on a complex multivariate time-series prediction task and compare it against strong baselines, including LSTM, monolithic LNN, and standard MoE models. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed MR-MoE framework consistently achieves improved AUROC and AUPRC performance while maintaining favorable computational efficiency. These results highlight the effectiveness of combining continuous-time dynamics, multi-scale expert decomposition, and adaptive attention mechanisms for time-series modeling.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have shown remarkable capability in instruction tuning, especially when the number of tasks scales. However, previous methods simply merge all training tasks (e.g. creative writing, coding, and mathematics) and apply fixed sampling weights, without considering the importance of different tasks as the model training state changes. In this way, the most helpful data cannot be effectively distinguished, leading to suboptimal model performance. To reduce the potential redundancies of datasets, we make the first attempt and propose a novel dynamic data mixture for MoE instruction tuning. Specifically, inspired by MoE's token routing preference, we build dataset-level representations and then capture the subtle differences among datasets. Finally, we propose to dynamically adjust the sampling weight of datasets by their inter-redundancies, thus maximizing global performance under a limited training budget. The experimental results on two MoE models demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on both downstream knowledge \& reasoning tasks and open-ended queries. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Spico197/MoE-SFT .

Large Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model inference is challenging due to high resource demands and dynamic workloads. Existing solutions often deploy the entire model as a single monolithic unit, which applies a unified resource configuration to both attention and expert modules despite their different requirements, leading to limited scalability and resource inefficiency. In this paper, we propose Janus, a scalable MoE inference system that disaggregates attention and experts on separate GPU sub-clusters, enabling each module to be managed and scaled independently. Janus incorporates three key designs for efficient, disaggregated MoE inference. First, it proposes an adaptive two-phase communication scheme that exploits intra- and inter-node bandwidth hierarchies for low-latency data exchange. Second, motivated by the memory-bound nature of MoE modules, Janus introduces a lightweight scheduler and implements it as a GPU kernel to balance the number of activated experts across GPUs at minimal overhead, thereby reducing inference latency. Third, Janus performs fine-grained resource management to dynamically adjust expert placement and independently scale attention and MoE resources to improve overall efficiency. Evaluation shows Janus achieves up to 3.9 higher perGPU throughput than state-of-the-art systems while meeting per-token latency requirements.

Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

We introduce MixtureKit, a modular open-source framework for constructing, training, and analyzing Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models from arbitrary pre-trained or fine-tuned models. MixtureKit currently supports three complementary methods: (i) Traditional MoE, which uses a single router per transformer block to select experts, (ii) BTX (Branch-Train-Mix), which introduces separate routers for each specified sub-layer enabling fine-grained token routing, and (iii) BTS (Branch-Train-Stitch), which keeps experts fully intact and introduces trainable stitch layers for controlled information exchange between hub and experts. MixtureKit automatically modifies the model configuration, patches decoder and causal LM classes, and saves a unified checkpoint ready for inference or fine-tuning. We further provide a visualization interface to inspect per-token routing decisions, expert weight distributions, and layer-wise contributions. Experiments with multilingual code-switched data (e.g. Arabic-Latin) show that a BTX-based model trained using MixtureKit can outperform baseline dense models on multiple benchmarks. We release MixtureKit as a practical foundation for research and development of MoE-based systems across diverse domains.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models typically fix the number of activated experts k at both training and inference. However, real-world deployments often face heterogeneous hardware, fluctuating workloads, and diverse quality-latency requirements, while training separate models for each scenario is costly. Considering that MoE models already operate with sparse activation, adjusting the number of activated experts offers a natural path to serving diverse budgets with a single model. Yet, we find that activating more experts k' (> k) at inference does not yield the expected gains. Instead, performance degrades rapidly after only a slight increase, a phenomenon we term the inference-time scaling wall. Further investigation reveals that this degradation stems from a lack of learned collaboration among experts. To address this, we introduce Elastic Mixture-of-Experts (EMoE), a novel training framework that enables MoE models to elastically vary the number of activated experts at inference. By simultaneously training experts to collaborate in diverse combinations and encouraging the router to make high-quality selections, EMoE ensures robust performance across inference budgets. Extensive experiments across four MoE architectures (7B--21B) and nine benchmarks show that EMoE significantly expands the effective scaling range to 2-3times the training-time k, while also achieving higher peak performance.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

Scaling the size of a model enhances its capabilities but significantly increases computation complexity. Mixture-of-Experts models (MoE) address the issue by allowing model size to scale up without substantially increasing training or inference costs. Despite their promising results, MoE models encounter several challenges. Primarily, for dynamic routing methods, the dispersion of training tokens across multiple experts can lead to underfitting, particularly for infrequent tokens. Additionally, while fixed routing methods can mitigate that issue, they compromise on the diversity of representations. In this paper, we propose MaskMoE, a method designed to enhance token-level learning by employing a routing masking technique within the Mixture-of-Experts model. MaskMoE is capable of maintaining representation diversity while achieving more comprehensive training. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms previous dominant Mixture-of-Experts models in terms of both perplexity (PPL) and downstream task performance.

We revisit the structure learning problem for dynamic Bayesian networks and propose a method that simultaneously estimates contemporaneous (intra-slice) and time-lagged (inter-slice) relationships between variables in a time-series. Our approach is score-based, and revolves around minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint. To solve this problem, we leverage a recent algebraic result characterizing the acyclicity constraint as a smooth equality constraint. The resulting algorithm, which we call DYNOTEARS, outperforms other methods on simulated data, especially in high-dimensions as the number of variables increases. We also apply this algorithm on real datasets from two different domains, finance and molecular biology, and analyze the resulting output. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for learning dynamic Bayesian networks, our method is both scalable and accurate on real data. The simple formulation and competitive performance of our method make it suitable for a variety of problems where one seeks to learn connections between variables across time.

While large and diverse datasets have driven recent advances in large models, identifying the optimal data mixture for pre-training and post-training remains a significant open problem. We address this challenge with FASTMIX, a novel framework that automates data mixture discovery while training only a single proxy model. Instead of relying on predefined heuristics or resource-intensive simulations, FASTMIX jointly optimizes mixture coefficients and model parameters, substantially improving efficiency and scalability over prior approaches. At the core of FASTMIX is a reformulation of mixture selection as a bilevel optimization problem. Under this reformulation, we show that optimizing mixture ratios is mathematically equivalent to assigning per-source loss weights under uniform source sampling. This embeds the mixture coefficients directly into the differentiable iterative optimization objective, enabling efficient, gradient-based optimization of both mixture and model. To solve the optimization problem, FASTMIX implements an approximate iterative optimization procedure, alternating between (i) updating model parameters on data sampled according to current mixture ratios (inner loop) and (ii) updating mixture ratios based on validation feedback (outer loop). Across pre- and post-training, FASTMIX outperforms baselines while drastically reducing search cost. Code (https://github.com/hrtan/fastmix)

Foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting face challenges in efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility, with existing synthetic-only approaches underperforming on challenging benchmarks. This paper presents TempoPFN, a univariate time series foundation model based on linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) pre-trained exclusively on synthetic data. The model uses a GatedDeltaProduct architecture with state-weaving for fully parallelizable training across sequence lengths, eliminating the need for windowing or summarization techniques while maintaining robust temporal state-tracking. Our comprehensive synthetic data pipeline unifies diverse generators, including stochastic differential equations, Gaussian processes, and audio synthesis, with novel augmentations. In zero-shot evaluations on the Gift-Eval benchmark, TempoPFN achieves top-tier competitive performance, outperforming all existing synthetic-only approaches and surpassing the vast majority of models trained on real-world data, while being more efficient than existing baselines by leveraging fully parallelizable training and inference. We open-source our complete data generation pipeline and training code, providing a reproducible foundation for future research.

In many areas of the brain, neural spiking activity covaries with features of the external world, such as sensory stimuli or an animal's movement. Experimental findings suggest that the variability of neural activity changes over time and may provide information about the external world beyond the information provided by the average neural activity. To flexibly track time-varying neural response properties, here we developed a dynamic model with Conway-Maxwell Poisson (CMP) observations. The CMP distribution can flexibly describe firing patterns that are both under- and over-dispersed relative to the Poisson distribution. Here we track parameters of the CMP distribution as they vary over time. Using simulations, we show that a normal approximation can accurately track dynamics in state vectors for both the centering and shape parameters (λ and ν). We then fit our model to neural data from neurons in primary visual cortex and "place cells" in the hippocampus. We find that this method out-performs previous dynamic models based on the Poisson distribution. The dynamic CMP model provides a flexible framework for tracking time-varying non-Poisson count data and may also have applications beyond neuroscience.

The Sparse Mixture of Experts (SMoE) has been widely employed to enhance the efficiency of training and inference for Transformer-based foundational models, yielding promising results. However, the performance of SMoE heavily depends on the choice of hyper-parameters, such as the number of experts and the number of experts to be activated (referred to as top-k), resulting in significant computational overhead due to the extensive model training by searching over various hyper-parameter configurations. As a remedy, we introduce the Dynamic Mixture of Experts (DynMoE) technique. DynMoE incorporates (1) a novel gating method that enables each token to automatically determine the number of experts to activate. (2) An adaptive process automatically adjusts the number of experts during training. Extensive numerical results across Vision, Language, and Vision-Language tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to achieve competitive performance compared to GMoE for vision and language tasks, and MoE-LLaVA for vision-language tasks, while maintaining efficiency by activating fewer parameters. Our code is available at https://github.com/LINs-lab/DynMoE.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models scale by activating only a small subset of experts per token. However, training such models remains challenging because top-k routing is discrete and non-differentiable, requiring gradient estimators for expert selection whose design remains a central open problem. We introduce ProbMoE, a probabilistic routing framework that models expert selection as a distribution over cardinality-constrained expert subsets and formulates routing as probabilistic inference in this discrete subset space. We first propose ProbMoE Exact-k routing, which samples k-expert subsets in the forward pass, and the backward pass uses gradients through each expert's exact marginal probability as a tractable surrogate for the true gradient. ProbMoE naturally generalizes to a dynamic-k routing setting, where both training and inference constrain the routing cardinality to the same predefined range, allowing adaptive expert allocation per token. Across benchmarks and model backbones, ProbMoE Exact-k achieves strong performance compared to competitive baselines, with improved expert utilization and routing diversity; ProbMoE Dynamic-k achieves comparable performance with fewer activated experts.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) activates only a subset of experts during inference, allowing the model to maintain low inference FLOPs and latency even as the parameter count scales up. However, since MoE dynamically selects the experts, all the experts need to be loaded into VRAM. Their large parameter size still limits deployment, and offloading, which load experts into VRAM only when needed, significantly increase inference latency. To address this, we propose Mixture of Lookup Experts (MoLE), a new MoE architecture that is efficient in both communication and VRAM usage. In MoLE, the experts are Feed-Forward Networks (FFNs) during training, taking the output of the embedding layer as input. Before inference, these experts can be re-parameterized as lookup tables (LUTs) that retrieves expert outputs based on input ids, and offloaded to storage devices. Therefore, we do not need to perform expert computations during inference. Instead, we directly retrieve the expert's computation results based on input ids and load them into VRAM, and thus the resulting communication overhead is negligible. Experiments show that, with the same FLOPs and VRAM usage, MoLE achieves inference speeds comparable to dense models and significantly faster than MoE with experts offloading, while maintaining performance on par with MoE.

Real-world datasets often exhibit temporal dynamics characterized by evolving data distributions. Disregarding this phenomenon, commonly referred to as concept drift, can significantly diminish a model's predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the presence of hyperparameters in online models exacerbates this issue. These parameters are typically fixed and cannot be dynamically adjusted by the user in response to the evolving data distribution. Gaussian Process (GP) models offer powerful non-parametric regression capabilities with uncertainty quantification, making them ideal for modeling complex data relationships in an online setting. However, conventional online GP methods face several critical limitations, including a lack of drift-awareness, reliance on fixed hyperparameters, vulnerability to data snooping, absence of a principled decay mechanism, and memory inefficiencies. In response, we propose DAO-GP (Drift-Aware Online Gaussian Process), a novel, fully adaptive, hyperparameter-free, decayed, and sparse non-linear regression model. DAO-GP features a built-in drift detection and adaptation mechanism that dynamically adjusts model behavior based on the severity of drift. Extensive empirical evaluations confirm DAO-GP's robustness across stationary conditions, diverse drift types (abrupt, incremental, gradual), and varied data characteristics. Analyses demonstrate its dynamic adaptation, efficient in-memory and decay-based management, and evolving inducing points. Compared with state-of-the-art parametric and non-parametric models, DAO-GP consistently achieves superior or competitive performance, establishing it as a drift-resilient solution for online non-linear regression.

Networks have become indispensable and ubiquitous structures in many fields to model the interactions among different entities, such as friendship in social networks or protein interactions in biological graphs. A major challenge is to understand the structure and dynamics of these systems. Although networks evolve through time, most existing graph representation learning methods target only static networks. Whereas approaches have been developed for the modeling of dynamic networks, there is a lack of efficient continuous time dynamic graph representation learning methods that can provide accurate network characterization and visualization in low dimensions while explicitly accounting for prominent network characteristics such as homophily and transitivity. In this paper, we propose the Piecewise-Velocity Model (PiVeM) for the representation of continuous-time dynamic networks. It learns dynamic embeddings in which the temporal evolution of nodes is approximated by piecewise linear interpolations based on a latent distance model with piecewise constant node-specific velocities. The model allows for analytically tractable expressions of the associated Poisson process likelihood with scalable inference invariant to the number of events. We further impose a scalable Kronecker structured Gaussian Process prior to the dynamics accounting for community structure, temporal smoothness, and disentangled (uncorrelated) latent embedding dimensions optimally learned to characterize the network dynamics. We show that PiVeM can successfully represent network structure and dynamics in ultra-low two-dimensional spaces. It outperforms relevant state-of-art methods in downstream tasks such as link prediction. In summary, PiVeM enables easily interpretable dynamic network visualizations and characterizations that can further improve our understanding of the intrinsic dynamics of time-evolving networks.

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 will be released to facilitate further research.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There exist significant challenges in LTSF due to its complex temporal dependencies and high computational demands. Although Transformer-based models offer high forecasting accuracy, they are often too compute-intensive to be deployed on devices with hardware constraints. On the other hand, the linear models aim to reduce the computational overhead by employing either decomposition methods in the time domain or compact representations in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose MixLinear, an ultra-lightweight multivariate time series forecasting model specifically designed for resource-constrained devices. MixLinear effectively captures both temporal and frequency domain features by modeling intra-segment and inter-segment variations in the time domain and extracting frequency variations from a low-dimensional latent space in the frequency domain. By reducing the parameter scale of a downsampled n-length input/output one-layer linear model from O(n^2) to O(n), MixLinear achieves efficient computation without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive evaluations with four benchmark datasets show that MixLinear attains forecasting performance comparable to, or surpassing, state-of-the-art models with significantly fewer parameters (0.1K), which makes it well-suited for deployment on devices with limited computational capacity.

The mixture of experts (MoE) model is a sparse variant of large language models (LLMs), designed to hold a better balance between intelligent capability and computational overhead. Despite its benefits, MoE is still too expensive to deploy on resource-constrained edge devices, especially with the demands of on-device inference services. Recent research efforts often apply model compression techniques, such as quantization, pruning and merging, to restrict MoE complexity. Unfortunately, due to their predefined static model optimization strategies, they cannot always achieve the desired quality-overhead trade-off when handling multiple requests, finally degrading the on-device quality of service. These limitations motivate us to propose the D^2MoE, an algorithm-system co-design framework that matches diverse task requirements by dynamically allocating the most proper bit-width to each expert. Specifically, inspired by the nested structure of matryoshka dolls, we propose the matryoshka weight quantization (MWQ) to progressively compress expert weights in a bit-nested manner and reduce the required runtime memory. On top of it, we further optimize the I/O-computation pipeline and design a heuristic scheduling algorithm following our hottest-expert-bit-first (HEBF) principle, which maximizes the expert parallelism between I/O and computation queue under constrained memory budgets, thus significantly reducing the idle temporal bubbles waiting for the experts to load. Evaluations on real edge devices show that D^2MoE improves the overall inference throughput by up to 1.39times and reduces the peak memory footprint by up to 53% over the latest on-device inference frameworks, while still preserving comparable serving accuracy as its INT8 counterparts.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) offers remarkable performance and computational efficiency by selectively activating subsets of model parameters. Traditionally, MoE models use homogeneous experts, each with identical capacity. However, varying complexity in input data necessitates experts with diverse capabilities, while homogeneous MoE hinders effective expert specialization and efficient parameter utilization. In this study, we propose a novel Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (HMoE), where experts differ in size and thus possess diverse capacities. This heterogeneity allows for more specialized experts to handle varying token complexities more effectively. To address the imbalance in expert activation, we propose a novel training objective that encourages the frequent activation of smaller experts, enhancing computational efficiency and parameter utilization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HMoE achieves lower loss with fewer activated parameters and outperforms conventional homogeneous MoE models on various pre-training evaluation benchmarks. Codes will be released upon acceptance.

We present Flash-GMM, a fused Triton kernel for efficient computation of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) over large-scale data in a single GPU pass. By eliminating the need to materialize the full responsibility matrix in GPU memory, Flash-GMM achieves a 20times speedup over existing implementations and enables training on datasets more than 100times larger than previously feasible on one device. To demonstrate its impact, we integrate Flash-GMM into the IVF coarse quantizer for approximate nearest-neighbor (ANN) search. We show that soft GMM clustering is now a viable drop-in replacement for k-means, and that GMM responsibilities can be leveraged to assign border vectors to multiple clusters. Our approach reaches fixed recall targets with up to 1.7times fewer distance computations, or equivalently, yields +2--12 recall@10 at matched computational cost. We release the kernel as an open-source project.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

The observations in many applications consist of counts of discrete events, such as photons hitting a detector, which cannot be effectively modeled using an additive bounded or Gaussian noise model, and instead require a Poisson noise model. As a result, accurate reconstruction of a spatially or temporally distributed phenomenon (f*) from Poisson data (y) cannot be effectively accomplished by minimizing a conventional penalized least-squares objective function. The problem addressed in this paper is the estimation of f* from y in an inverse problem setting, where (a) the number of unknowns may potentially be larger than the number of observations and (b) f* admits a sparse approximation. The optimization formulation considered in this paper uses a penalized negative Poisson log-likelihood objective function with nonnegativity constraints (since Poisson intensities are naturally nonnegative). In particular, the proposed approach incorporates key ideas of using separable quadratic approximations to the objective function at each iteration and penalization terms related to l1 norms of coefficient vectors, total variation seminorms, and partition-based multiscale estimation methods.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Jointly identifying a mixture of discrete and continuous factors of variability without supervision is a key problem in unraveling complex phenomena. Variational inference has emerged as a promising method to learn interpretable mixture representations. However, posterior approximation in high-dimensional latent spaces, particularly for discrete factors remains challenging. Here, we propose an unsupervised variational framework using multiple interacting networks called cpl-mixVAE that scales well to high-dimensional discrete settings. In this framework, the mixture representation of each network is regularized by imposing a consensus constraint on the discrete factor. We justify the use of this framework by providing both theoretical and experimental results. Finally, we use the proposed method to jointly uncover discrete and continuous factors of variability describing gene expression in a single-cell transcriptomic dataset profiling more than a hundred cortical neuron types.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have emerged as a cornerstone of large-scale deep learning by efficiently distributing computation and enhancing performance. However, their unique architecture-characterized by sparse expert activation and dynamic routing mechanisms-introduces inherent complexities that challenge conventional quantization techniques. Existing post-training quantization (PTQ) methods struggle to address activation outliers, router consistency and sparse expert calibration, leading to significant performance degradation. To bridge this gap, we propose EAQuant, a novel PTQ framework tailored for MoE architectures. Our method systematically tackles these challenges through three key innovations: (1) expert-aware smoothing aggregation to suppress activation outliers and stabilize quantization, (2) router logits distribution alignment to preserve expert selection consistency post-quantization, and (3) expert-level calibration data balance to optimize sparsely activated experts. Extensive experiments across W4A4 and extreme W3A4 quantization configurations demonstrate that EAQuant significantly outperforms existing methods, achieving average score improvements of 1.15 - 2.28% across three diverse MoE architectures, with particularly pronounced gains in reasoning tasks and robust performance retention under aggressive quantization. By integrating these innovations, EAQuant establishes a new state-of-the-art for high-precision, efficient MoE model compression. Our code is available at https://github.com/darren-fzq/EAQuant.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models enable scalable performance but face severe memory constraints on edge devices. Existing offloading strategies struggle with I/O bottlenecks due to the dynamic, low-information nature of autoregressive expert activation. In this paper, we propose to repurpose Speculative Decoding (SD) not merely as a compute accelerator, but as an informative lookahead sensor for memory management, supported by our theoretical and empirical analyses. Hence, we introduce MoE-SpAc, an MoE inference framework that integrates a Speculative Utility Estimator to track expert demand, a Heterogeneous Workload Balancer to dynamically partition computation via online integer optimization, and an Asynchronous Execution Engine to unify the prefetching and eviction in the same utility space. Extensive experiments on seven benchmarks demonstrate that MoE-SpAc achieves a 42% improvement in TPS over the SOTA SD-based baseline, and an average 4.04x speedup over all standard baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/lshAlgorithm/MoE-SpAc .

This work presents mixed variational flows (MixFlows), a new variational family that consists of a mixture of repeated applications of a map to an initial reference distribution. First, we provide efficient algorithms for i.i.d. sampling, density evaluation, and unbiased ELBO estimation. We then show that MixFlows have MCMC-like convergence guarantees when the flow map is ergodic and measure-preserving, and provide bounds on the accumulation of error for practical implementations where the flow map is approximated. Finally, we develop an implementation of MixFlows based on uncorrected discretized Hamiltonian dynamics combined with deterministic momentum refreshment. Simulated and real data experiments show that MixFlows can provide more reliable posterior approximations than several black-box normalizing flows, as well as samples of comparable quality to those obtained from state-of-the-art MCMC methods.

Recently, generative retrieval-based recommendation systems have emerged as a promising paradigm. However, most modern recommender systems adopt a retrieve-and-rank strategy, where the generative model functions only as a selector during the retrieval stage. In this paper, we propose OneRec, which replaces the cascaded learning framework with a unified generative model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end generative model that significantly surpasses current complex and well-designed recommender systems in real-world scenarios. Specifically, OneRec includes: 1) an encoder-decoder structure, which encodes the user's historical behavior sequences and gradually decodes the videos that the user may be interested in. We adopt sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) to scale model capacity without proportionally increasing computational FLOPs. 2) a session-wise generation approach. In contrast to traditional next-item prediction, we propose a session-wise generation, which is more elegant and contextually coherent than point-by-point generation that relies on hand-crafted rules to properly combine the generated results. 3) an Iterative Preference Alignment module combined with Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to enhance the quality of the generated results. Unlike DPO in NLP, a recommendation system typically has only one opportunity to display results for each user's browsing request, making it impossible to obtain positive and negative samples simultaneously. To address this limitation, We design a reward model to simulate user generation and customize the sampling strategy. Extensive experiments have demonstrated that a limited number of DPO samples can align user interest preferences and significantly improve the quality of generated results. We deployed OneRec in the main scene of Kuaishou, achieving a 1.6\% increase in watch-time, which is a substantial improvement.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has emerged as a promising sparse paradigm for scaling up pre-trained models (PTMs) with remarkable cost-effectiveness. However, the dynamic nature of MoE leads to rapid fluctuations and imbalances in expert loads during training, resulting in significant straggler effects that hinder training performance when using expert parallelism (EP). Existing MoE training systems attempt to mitigate these effects through expert rearrangement strategies, but they face challenges in terms of memory efficiency and timeliness of rearrangement. This paper proposes Fully Sharded Sparse Data Parallelism (FSSDP), an innovative approach that tackles the parallelization of MoE layers and potential straggler effects caused by imbalanced expert loads from a new perspective. FSSDP fully shards the parameters and optimizer states of MoE layers across devices and sparsely materializes MoE parameters from scratch in each iteration with two sparse collectives SparseAllGather and SparseReduceScatter. We build Hecate, a high-performance MoE training system that incorporates FSSDP to fully unlock its potential. Hecate introduces heterogeneous sharding, sparse materialization, and re-materialization techniques to construct flexible and efficient expert placements with low memory and communication overhead. Our evaluation reveals that Hecate achieves up to 3.54x speedup compared over state-of-the-art MoE training systems and consistently demonstrates improvements across model architectures and hardware environments.

Sequence and channel mixers, the core mechanism in sequence models, have become the de facto standard in time series analysis (TSA). However, recent studies have questioned the necessity of complex sequence mixers, such as attention mechanisms, demonstrating that simpler architectures can achieve comparable or even superior performance. This suggests that the benefits attributed to complex sequencemixers might instead emerge from other architectural or optimization factors. Based on this observation, we pose a central question: Are common sequence mixers necessary for time-series analysis? Therefore, we propose JustDense, an empirical study that systematically replaces sequence mixers in various well-established TSA models with dense layers. Grounded in the MatrixMixer framework, JustDense treats any sequence mixer as a mixing matrix and replaces it with a dense layer. This substitution isolates the mixing operation, enabling a clear theoretical foundation for understanding its role. Therefore, we conducted extensive experiments on 29 benchmarks covering five representative TSA tasks using seven state-of-the-art TSA models to address our research question. The results show that replacing sequence mixers with dense layers yields comparable or even superior performance. In the cases where dedicated sequence mixers still offer benefits, JustDense challenges the assumption that "deeper and more complex architectures are inherently better" in TSA.

Time series play a fundamental role in many domains, capturing a plethora of information about the underlying data-generating processes. When a process generates multiple synchronized signals we are faced with multidimensional time series. In this context a fundamental problem is that of motif mining, where we seek patterns repeating twice with minor variations, spanning some of the dimensions. State of the art exact solutions for this problem run in time quadratic in the length of the input time series. We provide a scalable method to find the top-k motifs in multidimensional time series with probabilistic guarantees on the quality of the results. Our algorithm runs in time subquadratic in the length of the input, and returns the exact solution with probability at least 1-δ, where δ is a user-defined parameter. The algorithm is designed to be adaptive to the input distribution, self-tuning its parameters while respecting user-defined limits on the memory to use. Our theoretical analysis is complemented by an extensive experimental evaluation, showing that our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than the state of the art.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) architectures have significantly increased computational efficiency in both research and real-world applications of large-scale machine learning models. However, their scalability and efficiency under memory constraints remain relatively underexplored. In this work, we present joint scaling laws for dense and MoE models, incorporating key factors such as the number of active parameters, dataset size, and the number of experts. Our findings provide a principled framework for selecting the optimal MoE configuration under fixed memory and compute budgets. Surprisingly, we show that MoE models can be more memory-efficient than dense models, contradicting conventional wisdom. To derive and validate the theoretical predictions of our scaling laws, we conduct over 280 experiments with up to 2.7B active parameters and up to 5B total parameters. These results offer actionable insights for designing and deploying MoE models in practical large-scale training scenarios.

Adapting a pre-trained foundation model on downstream tasks should ensure robustness against distribution shifts without the need to retrain the whole model. Although existing weight interpolation methods are simple yet effective, we argue their static nature limits downstream performance while achieving efficiency. In this work, we propose DaWin, a training-free dynamic weight interpolation method that leverages the entropy of individual models over each unlabeled test sample to assess model expertise, and compute per-sample interpolation coefficients dynamically. Unlike previous works that typically rely on additional training to learn such coefficients, our approach requires no training. Then, we propose a mixture modeling approach that greatly reduces inference overhead raised by dynamic interpolation. We validate DaWin on the large-scale visual recognition benchmarks, spanning 14 tasks across robust fine-tuning -- ImageNet and derived five distribution shift benchmarks -- and multi-task learning with eight classification tasks. Results demonstrate that DaWin achieves significant performance gain in considered settings, with minimal computational overhead. We further discuss DaWin's analytic behavior to explain its empirical success.

Language model performance depends on identifying the optimal mixture of data groups to train on (e.g., law, code, math). Prior work has proposed a diverse set of methods to efficiently learn mixture proportions, ranging from fitting regression models over training runs to dynamically updating proportions throughout training. Surprisingly, we find that no existing method consistently outperforms a simple stratified sampling baseline in terms of average test perplexity. To understand this inconsistency, we unify existing methods into a standard framework, showing they are equivalent to solving a common optimization problem: minimize average loss subject to a method-specific mixing law -- an implicit assumption on the relationship between loss and mixture proportions. This framework suggests that measuring the fidelity of a method's mixing law can offer insights into its performance. Empirically, we find that existing methods set their mixing law parameters inaccurately, resulting in the inconsistent mixing performance we observe. Using this insight, we derive a new online method named Aioli, which directly estimates the mixing law parameters throughout training and uses them to dynamically adjust proportions. Aioli outperforms stratified sampling on 6 out of 6 datasets by an average of 0.27 test perplexity points, whereas existing methods fail to consistently beat stratified sampling, doing up to 6.9 points worse. Moreover, in a practical setting where proportions are learned on shorter runs due to computational constraints, Aioli can dynamically adjust these proportions over the full training run, consistently improving performance over existing methods by up to 12.012 test perplexity points.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has emerged as a prominent architecture for scaling model size while maintaining computational efficiency. In MoE, each token in the input sequence activates a different subset of experts determined by a routing mechanism. However, the unchosen experts in MoE models do not contribute to the output, potentially leading to underutilization of the model's capacity. In this work, we first conduct exploratory studies to demonstrate that increasing the number of activated experts does not necessarily improve and can even degrade the output quality. Then, we show that output distributions from an MoE model using different routing strategies substantially differ, indicating that different experts do not always act synergistically. Motivated by these findings, we propose Self-Contrast Mixture-of-Experts (SCMoE), a training-free strategy that utilizes unchosen experts in a self-contrast manner during inference. In SCMoE, the next-token probabilities are determined by contrasting the outputs from strong and weak activation using the same MoE model. Our method is conceptually simple and computationally lightweight, as it incurs minimal latency compared to greedy decoding. Experiments on several benchmarks (GSM8K, StrategyQA, MBPP and HumanEval) demonstrate that SCMoE can consistently enhance Mixtral 8x7B's reasoning capability across various domains. For example, it improves the accuracy on GSM8K from 61.79 to 66.94. Moreover, combining SCMoE with self-consistency yields additional gains, increasing major@20 accuracy from 75.59 to 78.31.

Discovering causal structures from multivariate time series is a key problem because interactions span across multiple lags and possibly involve instantaneous dependencies. Additionally, the search space of the dynamic graphs is combinatorial in nature. In this study, we propose Stable Causal Dynamic Differentiable Discovery (SC3D), a two-stage differentiable framework that jointly learns lag-specific adjacency matrices and, if present, an instantaneous directed acyclic graph (DAG). In Stage 1, SC3D performs edge preselection through node-wise prediction to obtain masks for lagged and instantaneous edges, whereas Stage 2 refines these masks by optimizing a likelihood with sparsity along with enforcing acyclicity on the instantaneous block. Numerical results across synthetic SVAR systems, nonlinear and chaotic benchmarks, nonstationary dynamics and real-world datasets demonstrate that SC3D achieves improved stability and more accurate recovery of both lagged and instantaneous causal structures compared to existing baselines.

The emergence of large-scale Mixture of Experts (MoE) models has marked a significant advancement in artificial intelligence, offering enhanced model capacity and computational efficiency through conditional computation. However, the deployment and inference of these models present substantial challenges in terms of computational resources, latency, and energy efficiency. This comprehensive survey systematically analyzes the current landscape of inference optimization techniques for MoE models across the entire system stack. We first establish a taxonomical framework that categorizes optimization approaches into model-level, system-level, and hardware-level optimizations. At the model level, we examine architectural innovations including efficient expert design, attention mechanisms, various compression techniques such as pruning, quantization, and knowledge distillation, as well as algorithm improvement including dynamic routing strategies and expert merging methods. At the system level, we investigate distributed computing approaches, load balancing mechanisms, and efficient scheduling algorithms that enable scalable deployment. Furthermore, we delve into hardware-specific optimizations and co-design strategies that maximize throughput and energy efficiency. This survey not only provides a structured overview of existing solutions but also identifies key challenges and promising research directions in MoE inference optimization. Our comprehensive analysis serves as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners working on large-scale deployment of MoE models in resource-constrained environments. To facilitate ongoing updates and the sharing of cutting-edge advances in MoE inference optimization research, we have established a repository accessible at https://github.com/MoE-Inf/awesome-moe-inference/.

Mixture of Experts (MoEs) have become a central component of many state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary large language models. Despite their widespread adoption, it remains unclear how close existing MoE architectures are to optimal with respect to inference cost, as measured by accuracy per floating-point operation and per parameter. In this work, we revisit MoE design from a hardware-software co-design perspective, grounded in empirical and theoretical considerations. We characterize key performance bottlenecks across diverse deployment regimes, spanning offline high-throughput execution and online, latency-critical inference. Guided by these insights, we introduce LatentMoE, a new model architecture resulting from systematic design exploration and optimized for maximal accuracy per unit of compute. Empirical design space exploration at scales of up to 95B parameters and over a 1T-token training horizon, together with supporting theoretical analysis, shows that LatentMoE consistently outperforms standard MoE architectures in terms of accuracy per FLOP and per parameter. Given its strong performance, the LatentMoE architecture has been adopted by the flagship Nemotron-3 Super and Ultra models and scaled to substantially larger regimes, including longer token horizons and larger model sizes, as reported in Nvidia et al. (arXiv:2512.20856).

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While frequentist methods have yielded online filtering and prediction techniques, most Bayesian papers have focused on the retrospective segmentation problem. Here we examine the case where the model parameters before and after the changepoint are independent and we derive an online algorithm for exact inference of the most recent changepoint. We compute the probability distribution of the length of the current ``run,'' or time since the last changepoint, using a simple message-passing algorithm. Our implementation is highly modular so that the algorithm may be applied to a variety of types of data. We illustrate this modularity by demonstrating the algorithm on three different real-world data sets.

The data mixture used in the pre-training of a language model is a cornerstone of its final performance. However, a static mixing strategy is suboptimal, as the model's learning preferences for various data domains shift dynamically throughout training. Crucially, observing these evolving preferences in a computationally efficient manner remains a significant challenge. To address this, we propose TiKMiX, a method that dynamically adjusts the data mixture according to the model's evolving preferences. TiKMiX introduces Group Influence, an efficient metric for evaluating the impact of data domains on the model. This metric enables the formulation of the data mixing problem as a search for an optimal, influence-maximizing distribution. We solve this via two approaches: TiKMiX-D for direct optimization, and TiKMiX-M, which uses a regression model to predict a superior mixture. We trained models with different numbers of parameters, on up to 1 trillion tokens. TiKMiX-D exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art methods like REGMIX while using just 20% of the computational resources. TiKMiX-M leads to an average performance gain of 2% across 9 downstream benchmarks. Our experiments reveal that a model's data preferences evolve with training progress and scale, and we demonstrate that dynamically adjusting the data mixture based on Group Influence, a direct measure of these preferences, significantly improves performance by mitigating the underdigestion of data seen with static ratios.

Sparsely Mixture of Experts (MoE) has received great interest due to its promising scaling capability with affordable computational overhead. MoE converts dense layers into sparse experts, and utilizes a gated routing network to make experts conditionally activated. However, as the number of experts grows, MoE with outrageous parameters suffers from overfitting and sparse data allocation. Such problems are especially severe on tasks with limited data, thus hindering the progress for MoE models to improve performance by scaling up. In this work, we propose Mixture of Expert Clusters - a general approach to enable expert layers to learn more diverse and appropriate knowledge by imposing variance-based constraints on the routing stage. We further propose a cluster-level expert dropout strategy specifically designed for the expert cluster structure. Our experiments reveal that MoEC could improve performance on machine translation and natural language understanding tasks, and raise the performance upper bound for scaling up experts under limited data. We also verify that MoEC plays a positive role in mitigating overfitting and sparse data allocation.

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by 12% compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) is gaining increasing attention due to its unique properties and remarkable performance, especially for language tasks. By sparsely activating a subset of parameters for each token, MoE architecture could increase the model size without sacrificing computational efficiency, achieving a better trade-off between performance and training costs. However, the underlying mechanism of MoE still lacks further exploration, and its modularization degree remains questionable. In this paper, we make an initial attempt to understand the inner workings of MoE-based large language models. Concretely, we comprehensively study the parametric and behavioral features of three recent MoE-based models and reveal some intriguing observations, including (1) Neurons act like fine-grained experts. (2) The router of MoE usually selects experts with larger output norms. (3) The expert diversity increases as the layer increases, while the last layer is an outlier. Based on the observations, we also provide suggestions for a broad spectrum of MoE practitioners, such as router design and expert allocation. We hope this work could shed light on future research on the MoE framework and other modular architectures. Code is available at https://github.com/kamanphoebe/Look-into-MoEs.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) models have enabled the scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs) by achieving massive parameter counts while maintaining computational efficiency. However, MoEs introduce several inference-time challenges, including load imbalance across experts and the additional routing computational overhead. To address these challenges and fully harness the benefits of MoE, a systematic evaluation of hardware acceleration techniques is essential. We present MoE-Inference-Bench, a comprehensive study to evaluate MoE performance across diverse scenarios. We analyze the impact of batch size, sequence length, and critical MoE hyperparameters such as FFN dimensions and number of experts on throughput. We evaluate several optimization techniques on Nvidia H100 GPUs, including pruning, Fused MoE operations, speculative decoding, quantization, and various parallelization strategies. Our evaluation includes MoEs from the Mixtral, DeepSeek, OLMoE and Qwen families. The results reveal performance differences across configurations and provide insights for the efficient deployment of MoEs.

Sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) is an effective solution for scaling up model capacity without increasing the computational costs. A crucial component of SMoE is the router, responsible for directing the input to relevant experts; however, it also presents a major weakness, leading to routing inconsistencies and representation collapse issues. Instead of fixing the router like previous works, we propose an alternative that assigns experts to input via indirection, which employs the discrete representation of input that points to the expert. The discrete representations are learnt via vector quantization, resulting in a new architecture dubbed Vector-Quantized Mixture of Experts (VQMoE). We provide theoretical support and empirical evidence demonstrating the VQMoE's ability to overcome the challenges present in traditional routers. Through extensive evaluations on both large language models and vision tasks for pre-training and fine-tuning, we show that VQMoE achieves a 28% improvement in robustness compared to other SMoE routing methods, while maintaining strong performance in fine-tuning tasks.

Spurious correlations in the data, where multiple cues are predictive of the target labels, often lead to a phenomenon known as simplicity bias, where a model relies on erroneous, easy-to-learn cues while ignoring reliable ones. In this work, we propose an ensemble diversification framework exploiting Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) for shortcut bias mitigation. We show that at particular training intervals, DPMs can generate images with novel feature combinations, even when trained on images displaying correlated input features. We leverage this crucial property to generate synthetic counterfactuals to increase model diversity via ensemble disagreement. We show that DPM-guided diversification is sufficient to remove dependence on primary shortcut cues, without a need for additional supervised signals. We further empirically quantify its efficacy on several diversification objectives, and finally show improved generalization and diversification performance on par with prior work that relies on auxiliary data collection.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) models that employ sparse activation have demonstrated effectiveness in significantly increasing the number of parameters while maintaining low computational requirements per token. However, recent studies have established that MoE models are inherently parameter-inefficient as the improvement in performance diminishes with an increasing number of experts. We hypothesize this parameter inefficiency is a result of all experts having equal capacity, which may not adequately meet the varying complexity requirements of different tokens or tasks. In light of this, we propose Stratified Mixture of Experts (SMoE) models, which feature a stratified structure and can assign dynamic capacity to different tokens. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SMoE on three multilingual machine translation benchmarks, containing 4, 15, and 94 language pairs, respectively. We show that SMoE outperforms multiple state-of-the-art MoE models with the same or fewer parameters.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) has emerged as a pivotal architectural paradigm for efficient scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs), operating through selective activation of parameter subsets for each input token. Nevertheless, conventional MoE architectures encounter substantial challenges, including excessive memory utilization and communication overhead during training and inference, primarily attributable to the proliferation of expert modules. In this paper, we introduce Mixture of Latent Experts (MoLE), a novel parameterization methodology that facilitates the mapping of specific experts into a shared latent space. Specifically, all expert operations are systematically decomposed into two principal components: a shared projection into a lower-dimensional latent space, followed by expert-specific transformations with significantly reduced parametric complexity. This factorized approach substantially diminishes parameter count and computational requirements. Beyond the pretraining implementation of the MoLE architecture, we also establish a rigorous mathematical framework for transforming pre-trained MoE models into the MoLE architecture, characterizing the sufficient conditions for optimal factorization and developing a systematic two-phase algorithm for this conversion process. Our comprehensive theoretical analysis demonstrates that MoLE significantly enhances computational efficiency across multiple dimensions while preserving model representational capacity. Empirical evaluations corroborate our theoretical findings, confirming that MoLE achieves performance comparable to standard MoE implementations while substantially reducing resource requirements.

Large multimodal models have achieved remarkable progress in both understanding and generation. Recent efforts pursue unified multimodal models that integrate heterogeneous components to support both capabilities within a single framework. However, such unification introduces inference inefficiencies, e.g., specific tasks or samples may not require the full knowledge or capacity of the unified model. Yet, a systematic understanding of how these inefficiencies manifest across different components remains limited. In this work, we first conduct a systematic analysis of unified multimodal model components using training-free pruning as a probing methodology, considering both depth pruning and width reduction. Our study reveals that the understanding component exhibits notable compressibility in both understanding and generation tasks, which is more pronounced in the latter. In contrast, the generation components are highly sensitive to compression, with performance deteriorating sharply even under moderate compression ratios. To address this limitation, we propose the Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Adaptation, inspired by the dynamic activation patterns observed across different samples. This approach partitions the generation module into multiple experts and enables sparse activation to restore generation quality. We validate the effectiveness of sparse activation through expert-frozen tuning and further demonstrate that a fully trainable adaptation delivers additional gains. As a result, the adapted BAGEL model achieves performance comparable to the full model while activating only about half of its parameters. The code is released at https://github.com/Shwai-He/SparseUnifiedModel{this link}.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in image generation, yet tracing their outputs to individual training examples remains challenging. Existing attribution methods often compress factor-specific effects into scalar responses, making distinct internal changes indistinguishable. This is particularly limiting for diffusion models, where semantic factors emerge through evolving representation dynamics during denoising. We therefore reformulate diffusion data attribution as attributing factor-induced internal response trajectories. In this paper, we propose a novel Concept Attribution method through Dynamic Trajectories(CADT). We argue that attribution should therefore ask not only which examples matter, but also how their influence unfolds during generation. Specifically, we construct matched counterfactual pairs at identical noisy states to isolate factor-specific representation displacements, and model their directional and magnitude evolution across denoising as dynamic attribution signatures. For each training example and generated query, CADT extracts stage-wise feature vectors and integrates them along the denoising process to form a trajectory descriptor. Applying the same construction across the training set yields a bank of factor-specific trajectory descriptors. The covariance statistics of this bank are then used to construct . CADT uses this covariance-aware positive-semidefinite kernel to calibrate the query and training representations, and compares the calibrated query trajectory with each training trajectory to produce the final training-sample attribution scores. Experiments on multiple public datasets show consistent improvements over existing diffusion attribution baselines across hierarchical, compositional, and style attribution.

This article summarizes principles and ideas from the emerging area of applying conditional computation methods to the design of neural networks. In particular, we focus on neural networks that can dynamically activate or de-activate parts of their computational graph conditionally on their input. Examples include the dynamic selection of, e.g., input tokens, layers (or sets of layers), and sub-modules inside each layer (e.g., channels in a convolutional filter). We first provide a general formalism to describe these techniques in an uniform way. Then, we introduce three notable implementations of these principles: mixture-of-experts (MoEs) networks, token selection mechanisms, and early-exit neural networks. The paper aims to provide a tutorial-like introduction to this growing field. To this end, we analyze the benefits of these modular designs in terms of efficiency, explainability, and transfer learning, with a focus on emerging applicative areas ranging from automated scientific discovery to semantic communication.

Spectral methods are central to high-dimensional statistics and machine learning, underlying procedures for covariance estimation, matrix denoising, representation learning, clustering, and latent variable modeling. In this work, we focus primarily on spectral estimators for high-dimensional factor models, where leading singular vectors of the data matrix are used to estimate latent structure and covariance parameters. In many modern applications, however, data are collected across related but heterogeneous tasks, studies, domains, or populations. Applying such estimators separately to each task can lead to unstable estimates when sample sizes are limited relative to dimension, while completely pooling the data can obscure meaningful task-specific structure. We introduce Hierarchical Spectral Shrinkage (HSS), a scalable empirical-Bayes framework for partially pooling task-specific spectral estimators. The method regularizes the leading spectral directions of each task toward a data-adaptivelylearned common basis, while allowing the amount of shrinkage to vary across tasks and spectral components. The proposed estimator arises as the posterior mean in a surrogate Bayesian regression formulation of the empirical singular vectors. For factor models, HSS yields partially pooled estimators of the group-specific loading spaces and covariance matrices and can be combined with different spectral estimators by replacing their empirical singular vectors with hierarchically regularized counterparts. More broadly, the same construction provides a mechanism for extending spectral estimators to collections of related but heterogeneous datasets. We demonstrate substantial improvements in estimation accuracy and out-of-sample performance over separate, fully pooled, and shared-subspace approaches in synthetic experiments and multi-study gene-expression data.

In online incremental learning, data continuously arrives with substantial distributional shifts, creating a significant challenge because previous samples have limited replay value when learning a new task. Prior research has typically relied on either a single adaptive centroid or multiple fixed centroids to represent each class in the latent space. However, such methods struggle when class data streams are inherently multimodal and require continual centroid updates. To overcome this, we introduce an online Mixture Model learning framework grounded in Optimal Transport theory (MMOT), where centroids evolve incrementally with new data. This approach offers two main advantages: (i) it provides a more precise characterization of complex data streams, and (ii) it enables improved class similarity estimation for unseen samples during inference through MMOT-derived centroids. Furthermore, to strengthen representation learning and mitigate catastrophic forgetting, we design a Dynamic Preservation strategy that regulates the latent space and maintains class separability over time. Experimental evaluations on benchmark datasets confirm the superior effectiveness of our proposed method.

This study develops and empirically validates a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for stock price prediction across heterogeneous volatility regimes using real market data. The proposed model combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) optimized for high-volatility stocks with a linear regression model tailored to stable equities. A volatility-aware gating mechanism dynamically weights the contributions of each expert based on asset classification. Using a dataset of 30 publicly traded U.S. stocks spanning diverse sectors, the MoE approach consistently outperforms both standalone models. Specifically, it achieves up to 33% improvement in MSE for volatile assets and 28% for stable assets relative to their respective baselines. Stratified evaluation across volatility classes demonstrates the model's ability to adapt complexity to underlying market dynamics. These results confirm that no single model suffices across market regimes and highlight the advantage of adaptive architectures in financial prediction. Future work should explore real-time gate learning, dynamic volatility segmentation, and applications to portfolio optimization.

Pretraining data of large language models composes multiple domains (e.g., web texts, academic papers, codes), whose mixture proportions crucially impact the competence of outcome models. While existing endeavors rely on heuristics or qualitative strategies to tune the proportions, we discover the quantitative predictability of model performance regarding the mixture proportions in function forms, which we refer to as the data mixing laws. Fitting such functions on sample mixtures unveils model performance on unseen mixtures before actual runs, thus guiding the selection of an ideal data mixture. Furthermore, we propose nested use of the scaling laws of training steps, model sizes, and our data mixing law to enable predicting the performance of large models trained on massive data under various mixtures with only small-scale training. Moreover, experimental results verify that our method effectively optimizes the training mixture of a 1B model trained for 100B tokens in RedPajama, reaching a performance comparable to the one trained for 48% more steps on the default mixture. Extending the application of data mixing laws to continual training accurately predicts the critical mixture proportion that avoids catastrophic forgetting and outlooks the potential for dynamic data schedules

Diffusion models have garnered significant interest from the community for their great generative ability across various applications. However, their typical multi-step sequential-denoising nature gives rise to high cumulative latency, thereby precluding the possibilities of parallel computation. To address this, we introduce AsyncDiff, a universal and plug-and-play acceleration scheme that enables model parallelism across multiple devices. Our approach divides the cumbersome noise prediction model into multiple components, assigning each to a different device. To break the dependency chain between these components, it transforms the conventional sequential denoising into an asynchronous process by exploiting the high similarity between hidden states in consecutive diffusion steps. Consequently, each component is facilitated to compute in parallel on separate devices. The proposed strategy significantly reduces inference latency while minimally impacting the generative quality. Specifically, for the Stable Diffusion v2.1, AsyncDiff achieves a 2.7x speedup with negligible degradation and a 4.0x speedup with only a slight reduction of 0.38 in CLIP Score, on four NVIDIA A5000 GPUs. Our experiments also demonstrate that AsyncDiff can be readily applied to video diffusion models with encouraging performances. The code is available at https://github.com/czg1225/AsyncDiff.

Diffusion models have excelled at generative tasks for both continuous and token-based domains, but their application to discrete ordinal data remains underdeveloped. We present CountsDiff, a diffusion framework designed to model distributions on the natural numbers. CountsDiff extends the Blackout diffusion framework by simplifying its formulation through a direct parameterization in terms of a survival probability schedule and an explicit loss weighting. This introduces flexibility through design parameters with direct analogues in existing diffusion modeling frameworks. Beyond this reparameterization, CountsDiff introduces features from modern diffusion models, previously absent in counts-based domains, including continuous-time training, classifier-free guidance, and churn/remasking reverse dynamics that allow non-monotone reverse trajectories. We propose an initial instantiation of CountsDiff and validate it on natural image datasets (CIFAR-10, CelebA), exploring the effects of the introduced design parameters in a complex, well-studied, and interpretable data domain. We then highlight biological count assays as a natural use case, evaluating CountsDiff on single-cell RNA-seq imputation in fetal and heart cell atlases. Remarkably, we find that even this simple instantiation matches or surpasses the performance of a state-of-the-art discrete generative model and leading scRNA-seq imputation methods, while leaving substantial headroom for further gains through optimized design choices in future work.

Dynamic facial expression recognition (DFER) infers emotions from the temporal evolution of expressions, unlike static facial expression recognition (SFER), which relies solely on a single snapshot. This temporal analysis provides richer information and promises greater recognition capability. However, current DFER methods often exhibit unsatisfied performance largely due to fewer training samples compared to SFER. Given the inherent correlation between static and dynamic expressions, we hypothesize that leveraging the abundant SFER data can enhance DFER. To this end, we propose Static-for-Dynamic (S4D), a unified dual-modal learning framework that integrates SFER data as a complementary resource for DFER. Specifically, S4D employs dual-modal self-supervised pre-training on facial images and videos using a shared Vision Transformer (ViT) encoder-decoder architecture, yielding improved spatiotemporal representations. The pre-trained encoder is then fine-tuned on static and dynamic expression datasets in a multi-task learning setup to facilitate emotional information interaction. Unfortunately, vanilla multi-task learning in our study results in negative transfer. To address this, we propose an innovative Mixture of Adapter Experts (MoAE) module that facilitates task-specific knowledge acquisition while effectively extracting shared knowledge from both static and dynamic expression data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that S4D achieves a deeper understanding of DFER, setting new state-of-the-art performance on FERV39K, MAFW, and DFEW benchmarks, with weighted average recall (WAR) of 53.65\%, 58.44\%, and 76.68\%, respectively. Additionally, a systematic correlation analysis between SFER and DFER tasks is presented, which further elucidates the potential benefits of leveraging SFER.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MoI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MoI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhD-level QA tasks, MoI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen-32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.

Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) is a challenging task due to the variability of anomalous events and the limited availability of labeled data. Under the Weakly-Supervised VAD (WSVAD) paradigm, only video-level labels are provided during training, while predictions are made at the frame level. Although state-of-the-art models perform well on simple anomalies (e.g., explosions), they struggle with complex real-world events (e.g., shoplifting). This difficulty stems from two key issues: (1) the inability of current models to address the diversity of anomaly types, as they process all categories with a shared model, overlooking category-specific features; and (2) the weak supervision signal, which lacks precise temporal information, limiting the ability to capture nuanced anomalous patterns blended with normal events. To address these challenges, we propose Gaussian Splatting-guided Mixture of Experts (GS-MoE), a novel framework that employs a set of expert models, each specialized in capturing specific anomaly types. These experts are guided by a temporal Gaussian splatting loss, enabling the model to leverage temporal consistency and enhance weak supervision. The Gaussian splatting approach encourages a more precise and comprehensive representation of anomalies by focusing on temporal segments most likely to contain abnormal events. The predictions from these specialized experts are integrated through a mixture-of-experts mechanism to model complex relationships across diverse anomaly patterns. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, with a 91.58% AUC on the UCF-Crime dataset, and demonstrates superior results on XD-Violence and MSAD datasets. By leveraging category-specific expertise and temporal guidance, GS-MoE sets a new benchmark for VAD under weak supervision.

A multivariate time series refers to observations of two or more variables taken from a device or a system simultaneously over time. There is an increasing need to monitor multivariate time series and detect anomalies in real time to ensure proper system operation and good service quality. It is also highly desirable to have a lightweight anomaly detection system that considers correlations between different variables, adapts to changes in the pattern of the multivariate time series, offers immediate responses, and provides supportive information regarding detection results based on unsupervised learning and online model training. In the past decade, many multivariate time series anomaly detection approaches have been introduced. However, they are unable to offer all the above-mentioned features. In this paper, we propose RoLA, a real-time online lightweight anomaly detection system for multivariate time series based on a divide-and-conquer strategy, parallel processing, and the majority rule. RoLA employs multiple lightweight anomaly detectors to monitor multivariate time series in parallel, determine the correlations between variables dynamically on the fly, and then jointly detect anomalies based on the majority rule in real time. To demonstrate the performance of RoLA, we conducted an experiment based on a public dataset provided by the FerryBox of the One Ocean Expedition. The results show that RoLA provides satisfactory detection accuracy and lightweight performance.

Time series forecasting models are increasingly scaled through large Transformer backbones, yet most existing approaches process all series through a shared dense computation path despite substantial heterogeneity in temporal structure. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) offers a natural alternative by enabling conditional computation, but standard MoE routing leaves expert specialization weakly identified and often unstable during downstream adaptation. We propose AME-TS, a structure-guided sparse time series foundation model that aligns expert routing with interpretable temporal structure. AME-TS first uses a lightweight regime predictor to estimate series-level descriptors, including forecastability, seasonality, trend, and sparsity, and maps them to a soft structural prior over experts. This series-level prior guides token-level routing during training, encouraging structure-aligned specialization. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, AME-TS delivers a strong accuracy-efficiency tradeoff across model scales: it substantially outperforms existing time series foundation models at small model scales and remains competitive with the strongest models at larger scales, while activating substantially fewer parameters through sparse routing. We further show that AME-TS learns more interpretable routing geometry and substantially more stable expert specialization than standard MoE during fine-tuning on the M5 dataset. These results suggest that structure-aware routing is an effective and reliable way to realize the benefits of sparse expert models for time series forecasting.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved impressive performance, but high-resolution visual inputs result in long sequences of visual tokens and substantial inference latency. Reducing redundant visual tokens is critical to ease computational/memory burdens while preserving performance, enabling MLLM deployment in resource-constrained or latency-sensitive scenarios. Current visual token pruning methods mainly rely on attention-based redundancy analysis and are tailored to dense architectures. We propose Fast Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (FastMMoE), a training-free acceleration framework for mixture-of-experts (MoE) based MLLMs, developed from a routing analysis perspective. FastMMoE combines two complementary strategies: (i) expert activation reduction for visual tokens to minimize unnecessary expert computation; and (ii) routing-aware token pruning that leverages similarity in routing probability distributions to identify and remove highly redundant visual tokens. Experiments on large-scale MoE-MLLMs such as DeepSeek-VL2 and InternVL3.5 demonstrate that FastMMoE can reduce FLOPs by up to 55.0% while retaining approximately 95.5% of the original performance, consistently outperforming dense-model pruning baselines including FastV and SparseVLM across multiple retention rates.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a promising paradigm for scaling large language models (LLMs) with sparse activation of task-specific experts. Despite their computational efficiency during inference, the massive overall parameter footprint of MoE models (e.g., GPT-4) introduces critical challenges for practical deployment. Current pruning approaches often fail to address two inherent characteristics of MoE systems: 1).intra-layer expert homogeneity where experts within the same MoE layer exhibit functional redundancy, and 2). inter-layer similarity patterns where deeper layers tend to contain progressively more homogeneous experts. To tackle these issues, we propose Cluster-driven Expert Pruning (C-Prune), a novel two-stage framework for adaptive task-specific compression of MoE LLMs. C-Prune operates through layer-wise expert clustering, which groups functionally similar experts within each MoE layer using parameter similarity metrics, followed by global cluster pruning, which eliminates redundant clusters across all layers through a unified importance scoring mechanism that accounts for cross-layer homogeneity. We validate C-Prune through extensive experiments on multiple MoE models and benchmarks. The results demonstrate that C-Prune effectively reduces model size while outperforming existing MoE pruning methods.

Compositional generalization requires models to produce novel configurations from familiar parts. In diffusion models, prior compositional generation methods typically assume that the relevant concepts or conditioning signals are already available. We instead ask whether a pretrained diffusion model can discover query-specific concepts from the time-indexed scores it learns for the noisy marginals p_t(x_t) and compose them at test time. Given a single out-of-distribution query, our method performs gradient ascent on s_θ(x_t,t) approx nabla_{x_t}log p_t(x_t) at multiple noising timesteps to recover local density modes, maps these modes into clean-space Gaussians, greedily selects relevant prototypes with a submodular likelihood objective, and combines them into a product-of-experts (PoE) teacher model with an analytic score. This teacher model can be sampled directly through classifier-free guidance or used to generate a sample pool for training a new class embedding and low-rank adapter. On held-out composition benchmarks built from ColorMNIST and CelebA, both the analytic PoE sampler and the low-rank adapted model outperform query-only and nearest trained-class baselines. These results suggest that the time-indexed score geometry of the diffusion model contains reusable density-mode concepts that support test-time compositional generation without a predefined concept library.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have emerged as a powerful paradigm for scaling neural networks while maintaining computational efficiency. However, standard MoE implementations rely on two rigid design assumptions: (1) fixed Top-K routing where exactly K experts are activated per token, and (2) uniform expert allocation across all layers. This paper introduces DynaMoE, a novel MoE framework that relaxes both constraints through dynamic token-level expert activation and layer-wise adaptive capacity allocation. DynaMoE introduces a principled routing mechanism where the number of active experts per token varies based on input complexity. Concurrently, the framework implements six distinct scheduling strategies for distributing expert capacity across network depth, including descending, ascending, pyramid, and wave patterns. We theoretically analyze the expressivity gains of dynamic routing and derive bounds on computational efficiency. Through extensive experiments on MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10 (image classification), and Recycling-the-Web (language modeling) across multiple model scales, we demonstrate that DynaMoE achieves superior parameter efficiency compared to static baselines. Our key finding is that optimal expert schedules are task- and scale-dependent: descending schedules (concentrating capacity in early layers) outperform uniform baselines on image classification. For language modeling, optimal schedules vary by model size, descending for Tiny, ascending for Small, and uniform for Medium. Furthermore, dynamic routing reduces gradient variance during training, leading to improved convergence stability. DynaMoE establishes a new framework for adaptive computation in neural networks, providing principled guidance for MoE architecture design.

Large-scale recordings of neural activity are providing new opportunities to study neural population dynamics. A powerful method for analyzing such high-dimensional measurements is to deploy an algorithm to learn the low-dimensional latent dynamics. LFADS (Latent Factor Analysis via Dynamical Systems) is a deep learning method for inferring latent dynamics from high-dimensional neural spiking data recorded simultaneously in single trials. This method has shown a remarkable performance in modeling complex brain signals with an average inference latency in milliseconds. As our capacity of simultaneously recording many neurons is increasing exponentially, it is becoming crucial to build capacity for deploying low-latency inference of the computing algorithms. To improve the real-time processing ability of LFADS, we introduce an efficient implementation of the LFADS models onto Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA). Our implementation shows an inference latency of 41.97 mus for processing the data in a single trial on a Xilinx U55C.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures achieve parameter efficiency through conditional computation, yet contemporary designs suffer from two fundamental limitations: structural parameter isolation that causes catastrophic forgetting, and instruction-overfitting that degrades performance in instruction-free scenarios. We propose CDSP-MoE (Conflict-Driven Subspace Pruning MoE), a framework that addresses these issues through a paradigm shift from isolated expert containers to dynamic expert instantiation within a shared physical subspace. Grounded in the Universal Weight Subspace Hypothesis, CDSP-MoE maintains a super-complete parameter backbone where logical experts are carved out via learnable topology masks. Unlike prior work that uses gradient conflict for token reassignment or optimization surgery, we leverage it as a structural supervisory signal: a Lagged Gradient Game penalizes interfering connections in the shared manifold, enabling the topology to spontaneously prune conflicting pathways and evolve interpretable modular structures. Experimental results demonstrate that CDSP-MoE achieves robust content-driven routing without human-defined task labels, maintaining semantic specialization even under strict blind inference protocols where explicit instructions are absent. Code is available at: https://github.com/konodiodaaaaa1/Conflict-Driven-Subspace-Pruning-Mixture-of-Experts

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers have emerged as an important tool in scaling up modern neural networks by decoupling total trainable parameters from activated parameters in the forward pass for each token. However, sparse MoEs add complexity to training due to (i) new trainable parameters (router weights) that, like all other parameter groups, require hyperparameter (HP) tuning; (ii) new architecture scale dimensions (number of and size of experts) that must be chosen and potentially taken large. To make HP selection cheap and reliable, we propose a new parameterization for transformer models with MoE layers when scaling model width, depth, number of experts, and expert (hidden) size. Our parameterization is justified by a novel dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) analysis. When varying different model dimensions trained at a fixed token budget, we find empirically that our parameterization enables reliable HP transfer across models from 51M to over 2B total parameters. We further take HPs identified from sweeping small models on a short token horizon to train larger models on longer horizons and report performant model behaviors.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) scales capacity, but existing designs cannot set three quantities independently. For a single token, participation is how many experts contribute knowledge to its output, execution is how many are actually computed (compute cost), and materialization is how many expert-sized parameter sets must be built and stored (memory cost). Sparse routing keeps execution and materialization low, but shrinks participation: for each token, only a few experts contribute. Dense output-mixing restores full participation, but its execution grows with the number of experts. Parameter-merging keeps execution at one expert, but its materialization grows with the number of routing decisions. We propose IntBMoE, a block-conditioned MoE that decouples all three by pairing dense expert composition with sparse block execution. Its blocks come from a small learned codebook, one per entry. At each internal layer, a lightweight hypernetwork merges all expert bases in that layer's pool into one composed expert. Participation is full, because every composed expert draws on the entire pool. Execution stays sparse, because a router sends each token to only a few blocks. Materialization is bounded, because the codebook, not the input, fixes how many blocks exist. Dual-Path Residual Gating (DPRG) further couples two independently composed paths through multiplicative gating. Experiments on image classification show consistent gains over representative sparse and dense MoE baselines. Additional experiments on language modeling and sequential recommendation validate its generalization beyond vision. IntBMoE is fully deployed in AMap's generative recommendation system, serving hundreds of millions of users under a 60ms latency budget, with a 2.4% relative UVCTR gain in online A/B testing. Our code is available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/DreamX-Rec/.

Archetypal Analysis (AA) represents observations as convex combinations of extremal data-driven profiles, yielding interpretable low-dimensional descriptions of complex datasets. Classical AA relies on a least-squares objective, which is poorly suited to discrete observations such as binary, count, and categorical data. We introduce an efficient likelihood-based framework for AA supporting Bernoulli, Poisson, and multinomial observation models. Our optimization scheme employs local quadratic approximations of the negative log-likelihood, enabling constrained updates through sequential minimal optimization (SMO) and an active-set method. Scalability is improved by bounding the active set while preserving simplex feasibility. We further introduce a cross-validated predictive likelihood criterion for selecting the number of archetypes, providing a principled alternative to reconstruction-error heuristics and stability-based diagnostics. Synthetic experiments demonstrate computational efficiency and accurate recovery of model complexity. Applications to single-cell RNA sequencing, microbiome composition, and somatic mutation data show that the learned archetypes capture interpretable domain-specific structures while achieving competitive likelihood fits and stable solutions. Overall, the proposed framework enables efficient likelihood-based archetypal analysis of discrete data, complemented by predictive likelihood-based model selection.

The mixture of Expert (MoE) parallelism is a recent advancement that scales up the model size with constant computational cost. MoE selects different sets of parameters (i.e., experts) for each incoming token, resulting in a sparsely-activated model. Despite several successful applications of MoE, its training efficiency degrades significantly as the number of experts increases. The routing stage in MoE relies on the efficiency of the All2All communication collective, which suffers from network congestion and has poor scalability. To mitigate these issues, we introduce SMILE, which exploits heterogeneous network bandwidth and splits a single-step routing into bi-level routing. Our experimental results show that the proposed method obtains a 2.5x speedup over Switch Transformer in terms of pretraining throughput on the Colossal Clean Crawled Corpus without losing any convergence speed.

With the growing prominence of the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture in developing large-scale foundation models, we investigate the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HMoE), a specialized variant of MoE that excels in handling complex inputs and improving performance on targeted tasks. Our analysis highlights the advantages of using the Laplace gating function over the traditional Softmax gating within the HMoE frameworks. We theoretically demonstrate that applying the Laplace gating function at both levels of the HMoE model helps eliminate undesirable parameter interactions caused by the Softmax gating and, therefore, accelerates the expert convergence as well as enhances the expert specialization. Empirical validation across diverse scenarios supports these theoretical claims. This includes large-scale multimodal tasks, image classification, and latent domain discovery and prediction tasks, where our modified HMoE models show great performance improvements compared to the conventional HMoE models.

Transformer-based models have recently made significant advances in accurate time-series forecasting, but even these architectures struggle to scale efficiently while capturing long-term temporal dynamics. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers are a proven solution to scaling problems in natural language processing. However, existing MoE approaches for time-series forecasting rely on token-wise routing mechanisms, which may fail to exploit the natural locality and continuity of temporal data. In this work, we introduce Seg-MoE, a sparse MoE design that routes and processes contiguous time-step segments rather than making independent expert decisions. Token segments allow each expert to model intra-segment interactions directly, naturally aligning with inherent temporal patterns. We integrate Seg-MoE layers into a time-series Transformer and evaluate it on multiple multivariate long-term forecasting benchmarks. Seg-MoE consistently achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy across almost all prediction horizons, outperforming both dense Transformers and prior token-wise MoE models. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm that segment-level routing is the key factor driving these gains. Our results show that aligning the MoE routing granularity with the inherent structure of time series provides a powerful, yet previously underexplored, inductive bias, opening new avenues for conditionally sparse architectures in sequential data modeling.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) effectively scales large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) by increasing capacity through sparse activation. However, preloading all experts into memory and activating multiple experts per input introduces significant computational and memory overhead, making the expert module a major contributor to model size and inference cost. To address this, we propose MC# (Mixture-Compressor-sharp), a framework that combines static quantization and dynamic expert pruning by leveraging the significance of experts and tokens for aggressive compression of MoE-LLMs/VLMs. To reduce storage and loading costs, we introduce Pre-Loading Mixed-Precision Quantization (PMQ), which optimizes bit allocation via linear programming, balancing expert importance and quantization error for a Pareto-optimal trade-off between size and performance. To reduce runtime computation, Online Top-any Pruning (OTP) uses Gumbel-Softmax sampling to dynamically select a subset of experts per token, enabling fine-grained control over activation. By combining PMQ's static bit-width optimization with OTP's dynamic routing, MC# achieves extreme compression with minimal accuracy loss. On DeepSeek-VL2, MC# achieves a 6.2 times weight reduction at 2.57 average bits with only a 1.7% accuracy drop across five multimodal benchmarks. Additionally, OTP reduces expert activation over 20% with less than 1% performance degradation, demonstrating strong potential for efficient MoE-based model deployment.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series data is of paramount importance for ensuring the efficient operation of large-scale systems across diverse domains. However, accurately detecting anomalies in such data poses significant challenges. Existing approaches, including forecasting and reconstruction-based methods, struggle to address these challenges effectively. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel anomaly detection framework named ImDiffusion, which combines time series imputation and diffusion models to achieve accurate and robust anomaly detection. The imputation-based approach employed by ImDiffusion leverages the information from neighboring values in the time series, enabling precise modeling of temporal and inter-correlated dependencies, reducing uncertainty in the data, thereby enhancing the robustness of the anomaly detection process. ImDiffusion further leverages diffusion models as time series imputers to accurately capturing complex dependencies. We leverage the step-by-step denoised outputs generated during the inference process to serve as valuable signals for anomaly prediction, resulting in improved accuracy and robustness of the detection process. We evaluate the performance of ImDiffusion via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of detection accuracy and timeliness. ImDiffusion is further integrated into the real production system in Microsoft and observe a remarkable 11.4% increase in detection F1 score compared to the legacy approach. To the best of our knowledge, ImDiffusion represents a pioneering approach that combines imputation-based techniques with time series anomaly detection, while introducing the novel use of diffusion models to the field.

Existing vector quantization (VQ) based autoregressive models follow a two-stage generation paradigm that first learns a codebook to encode images as discrete codes, and then completes generation based on the learned codebook. However, they encode fixed-size image regions into fixed-length codes and ignore their naturally different information densities, which results in insufficiency in important regions and redundancy in unimportant ones, and finally degrades the generation quality and speed. Moreover, the fixed-length coding leads to an unnatural raster-scan autoregressive generation. To address the problem, we propose a novel two-stage framework: (1) Dynamic-Quantization VAE (DQ-VAE) which encodes image regions into variable-length codes based on their information densities for an accurate and compact code representation. (2) DQ-Transformer which thereby generates images autoregressively from coarse-grained (smooth regions with fewer codes) to fine-grained (details regions with more codes) by modeling the position and content of codes in each granularity alternately, through a novel stacked-transformer architecture and shared-content, non-shared position input layers designs. Comprehensive experiments on various generation tasks validate our superiorities in both effectiveness and efficiency. Code will be released at https://github.com/CrossmodalGroup/DynamicVectorQuantization.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has emerged as a promising paradigm for foundation models due to its efficient and powerful scalability. In this work, we present Sigma-MoE-Tiny, an MoE language model that achieves the highest sparsity compared to existing open-source models. Sigma-MoE-Tiny employs fine-grained expert segmentation with up to 96 experts per layer, while activating only one expert for each token, resulting in 20B total parameters with just 0.5B activated. The major challenge introduced by such extreme sparsity lies in expert load balancing. We find that the widely-used load balancing loss tends to become ineffective in the lower layers under this setting. To address this issue, we propose a progressive sparsification schedule aiming to balance expert utilization and training stability. Sigma-MoE-Tiny is pre-trained on a diverse and high-quality corpus, followed by post-training to further unlock its capabilities. The entire training process remains remarkably stable, with no occurrence of irrecoverable loss spikes. Comprehensive evaluations reveal that, despite activating only 0.5B parameters, Sigma-MoE-Tiny achieves top-tier performance among counterparts of comparable or significantly larger scale. In addition, we provide an in-depth discussion of load balancing in highly sparse MoE models, offering insights for advancing sparsity in future MoE architectures. Project page: https://qghuxmu.github.io/Sigma-MoE-Tiny Code: https://github.com/microsoft/ltp-megatron-lm

Generating high-quality time series data has emerged as a critical research topic due to its broad utility in supporting downstream time series mining tasks. A major challenge lies in modeling the intrinsic stochasticity of temporal dynamics, as real-world sequences often exhibit random fluctuations and localized variations. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success, their generation process is computationally inefficient, often requiring hundreds to thousands of expensive function evaluations per sample. Flow matching has emerged as a more efficient paradigm, yet its conventional ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based formulation fails to explicitly capture stochasticity, thereby limiting the fidelity of generated sequences. By contrast, stochastic differential equation (SDE) are naturally suited for modeling randomness and uncertainty. Motivated by these insights, we propose TimeFlow, a novel SDE-based flow matching framework that integrates a encoder-only architecture. Specifically, we design a component-wise decomposed velocity field to capture the multi-faceted structure of time series and augment the vanilla flow-matching optimization with an additional stochastic term to enhance representational expressiveness. TimeFlow is flexible and general, supporting both unconditional and conditional generation tasks within a unified framework. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms strong baselines in generation quality, diversity, and efficiency.

We model Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) token routing as a congestion game with a single effective parameter, the congestion coefficient gamma_eff, that quantifies the balance-quality tradeoff. Tracking gamma_eff across training checkpoints of two open-source MoE models, OLMoE-1B-7B (20 checkpoints, with dense sampling in the surge region) and OpenMoE-8B (6 checkpoints), reveals a three-phase trajectory: a surge phase where the router learns to balance load (gamma_eff: 14 to 36-39, peaking in the step 30K-40K region), a stabilization phase where experts specialize under steady balance (B_0: 2.4 to 2.3, steps 100K-400K), and a relaxation phase where the router trades balance for quality as experts differentiate (gamma_eff: 27 to 9, steps 400K-1.2M). This non-monotone trajectory, invisible to post-hoc analysis of converged models, reveals that early MoE training prioritizes balance while late training prioritizes quality. The theoretical framework is honest about its limits: the single-type equilibrium reduces to temperature-scaled softmax (held-out L1: MFG = 0.199 vs. softmax = 0.200). The game is not a better predictor; it reveals what the temperature means and, critically, how that temperature evolves. We complement the dynamics with an effective congestion decomposition, a multi-type extension that improves load prediction via token clustering on all 16 layers (mean: 30%), scope diagnostics (K/M, epsilon_l), and robustness verification across four independent quality estimators (r >= 0.89). All confidence intervals are from bootstrap resampling over 50 independent text batches.

We present ScatterMoE, an implementation of Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) on GPUs. ScatterMoE builds upon existing implementations, and overcoming some of the limitations to improve inference and training speed, and memory footprint. This implementation achieves this by avoiding padding and making excessive copies of the input. We introduce ParallelLinear, the main component we use to build our implementation and the various kernels used to speed up the operation. We benchmark our implementation against Megablocks, and show that it enables a higher throughput and lower memory footprint. We also show how ParallelLinear enables extension of the Mixture-of-Experts concept by demonstrating with an implementation of Mixture of Attention.

Mixture-of-Experts large language models (MoE-LLMs) marks a significant step forward of language models, however, they encounter two critical challenges in practice: 1) expert parameters lead to considerable memory consumption and loading latency; and 2) the current activated experts are redundant, as many tokens may only require a single expert. Motivated by these issues, we investigate the MoE-LLMs and make two key observations: a) different experts exhibit varying behaviors on activation reconstruction error, routing scores, and activated frequencies, highlighting their differing importance, and b) not all tokens are equally important -- only a small subset is critical. Building on these insights, we propose MC-MoE, a training-free Mixture-Compressor for MoE-LLMs, which leverages the significance of both experts and tokens to achieve an extreme compression. First, to mitigate storage and loading overheads, we introduce Pre-Loading Mixed-Precision Quantization, which formulates the adaptive bit-width allocation as a Linear Programming problem, where the objective function balances multi-factors reflecting the importance of each expert. Additionally, we develop Online Dynamic Pruning, which identifies important tokens to retain and dynamically select activated experts for other tokens during inference to optimize efficiency while maintaining performance. Our MC-MoE integrates static quantization and dynamic pruning to collaboratively achieve extreme compression for MoE-LLMs with less accuracy loss, ensuring an optimal trade-off between performance and efficiency. Extensive experiments confirm the effectiveness of our approach. For instance, at 2.54 bits, MC-MoE compresses 76.6% of the model, with only a 3.8% average accuracy loss. During dynamic inference, we further reduce activated parameters by 15%, with a performance drop of less than 0.6%.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models face deployment challenges due to their large parameter counts and computational demands. We explore quantization for MoE models and highlight two key insights: 1) linear blocks exhibit varying quantization sensitivity, and 2) divergent expert activation frequencies create heterogeneous computational characteristics. Based on these observations, we introduce MxMoE, a mixed-precision optimization framework for MoE models that considers both algorithmic and system perspectives. MxMoE navigates the design space defined by parameter sensitivity, expert activation dynamics, and hardware resources to derive efficient mixed-precision configurations. Additionally, MxMoE automatically generates optimized mixed-precision GroupGEMM kernels, enabling parallel execution of GEMMs with different precisions. Evaluations show that MxMoE outperforms existing methods, achieving 2.4 lower Wikitext-2 perplexity than GPTQ at 2.25-bit and delivering up to 3.4x speedup over full precision, as well as up to 29.4% speedup over uniform quantization at equivalent accuracy with 5-bit weight-activation quantization. Our code is available at https://github.com/cat538/MxMoE.

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle physics data analysis. The generative model must accurately reproduce individual observable distributions while preserving the correlations between them, based on the input multidimensional distribution from the control sample. Here we present a conditional normalizing flow model (CNF) based on a chain of bijectors which learns to transform unpaired simulation events to data events. We assess the performance of the CNF model in the context of LHC Higgs to diphoton analysis, where we use the CNF model to convert a Monte Carlo diphoton sample to one that models data. We show that the CNF model can accurately model complex data distributions and correlations. We also leverage the recently popularized Modified Differential Multiplier Method (MDMM) to improve the convergence of our model and assign physical meaning to usually arbitrary loss-function parameters.

Looped Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models combine parameter reuse with sparse computation to improve performance under matched budgets. Prior work demonstrates that different loop visits can play different roles even when they share parameters. To probe the contributions of different loop visits, we learn separate residual coefficients in a model that applies a shared block twice, observing a smaller scale in the first visit. Fixed coefficient experiments show that reducing the first visit's scale preserves or improves performance, whereas the same reductions to the second hurt it. This asymmetry motivates us to explore asymmetric compute allocation. We propose LatentLoop, which compresses the first visit's sequence, retains full resolution in the second, and reallocates saved computation to increase the hidden size. We further learn how strongly the first visit updates the full sequence, and share MoE weights across visits while using separate attention parameters to accommodate their different sequence resolutions. Across 15 configurations spanning 1.3B--7B parameters, with the largest budget exceeding 10^{21} FLOPs, LatentLoop consistently lowers validation NLL. At a fitted NLL of 1.988, predicted compute savings are 19.0\% and 7.9\% relative to vanilla MoE and the looped baseline. It also improves average scores on nine benchmarks at all sizes in 0-shot and 5-shot settings. These results suggest asymmetric compute allocation is a promising direction for looped MoE models.

The clustering problem, and more generally, latent factor discovery --or latent space inference-- is formulated in terms of the Wasserstein barycenter problem from optimal transport. The objective proposed is the maximization of the variability attributable to class, further characterized as the minimization of the variance of the Wasserstein barycenter. Existing theory, which constrains the transport maps to rigid translations, is extended to affine transformations. The resulting non-parametric clustering algorithms include k-means as a special case and exhibit more robust performance. A continuous version of these algorithms discovers continuous latent variables and generalizes principal curves. The strength of these algorithms is demonstrated by tests on both artificial and real-world data sets.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) large language models (LLMs), which leverage dynamic routing and sparse activation to enhance efficiency and scalability, have achieved higher performance while reducing computational costs. However, these models face significant memory overheads, limiting their practical deployment and broader adoption. Post-training quantization (PTQ), a widely used method for compressing LLMs, encounters severe accuracy degradation and diminished generalization performance when applied to MoE models. This paper investigates the impact of MoE's sparse and dynamic characteristics on quantization and identifies two primary challenges: (1) Inter-expert imbalance, referring to the uneven distribution of samples across experts, which leads to insufficient and biased calibration for less frequently utilized experts; (2) Intra-expert imbalance, arising from MoE's unique aggregation mechanism, which leads to varying degrees of correlation between different samples and their assigned experts. To address these challenges, we propose MoEQuant, a novel quantization framework tailored for MoE LLMs. MoE-Quant includes two novel techniques: 1) Expert-Balanced Self-Sampling (EBSS) is an efficient sampling method that efficiently constructs a calibration set with balanced expert distributions by leveraging the cumulative probabilities of tokens and expert balance metrics as guiding factors. 2) Affinity-Guided Quantization (AGQ), which incorporates affinities between experts and samples into the quantization process, thereby accurately assessing the impact of individual samples on different experts within the MoE layer. Experiments demonstrate that MoEQuant achieves substantial performance gains (more than 10 points accuracy gain in the HumanEval for DeepSeekMoE-16B under 4-bit quantization) and boosts efficiency.

Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image and video generation. However, their complex network architecture leads to high inference overhead for its generation process. Existing diffusion quantization methods primarily focus on the quantization of the model structure while ignoring the impact of time-steps variation during sampling. At the same time, most current approaches fail to account for significant activations that cannot be eliminated, resulting in substantial performance degradation after quantization. To address these issues, we propose Time-Rotation Diffusion Quantization (TR-DQ), a novel quantization method incorporating time-step and rotation-based optimization. TR-DQ first divides the sampling process based on time-steps and applies a rotation matrix to smooth activations and weights dynamically. For different time-steps, a dedicated hyperparameter is introduced for adaptive timing modeling, which enables dynamic quantization across different time steps. Additionally, we also explore the compression potential of Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG-wise) to establish a foundation for subsequent work. TR-DQ achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on image generation and video generation tasks and a 1.38-1.89x speedup and 1.97-2.58x memory reduction in inference compared to existing quantization methods.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

One defining characteristic of Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) models is their capacity for conducting sparse computation via expert routing, leading to remarkable scalability. However, backpropagation, the cornerstone of deep learning, requires dense computation, thereby posting challenges in MoE gradient computations. Here, we introduce SparseMixer, a scalable gradient estimator that bridges the gap between backpropagation and sparse expert routing. Unlike typical MoE training which strategically neglects certain gradient terms for the sake of sparse computation and scalability, SparseMixer provides scalable gradient approximations for these terms, enabling reliable gradient estimation in MoE training. Grounded in a numerical ODE framework, SparseMixer harnesses the mid-point method, a second-order ODE solver, to deliver precise gradient approximations with negligible computational overhead. Applying SparseMixer to Switch Transformer on both pre-training and machine translation tasks, SparseMixer showcases considerable performance gain, accelerating training convergence up to 2 times.

In this work, we aim to simultaneously enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) methods. To achieve this, we propose MoE++, a general and heterogeneous MoE framework that integrates both Feed-Forward Network~(FFN) and zero-computation experts. Specifically, we introduce three types of zero-computation experts: the zero expert, copy expert, and constant expert, which correspond to discard, skip, and replace operations, respectively. This design offers three key advantages: (i) Low Computing Overhead: Unlike the uniform mixing mechanism for all tokens within vanilla MoE, MoE++ allows each token to engage with a dynamic number of FFNs, be adjusted by constant vectors, or even skip the MoE layer entirely. (ii) High Performance: By enabling simple tokens to utilize fewer FFN experts, MoE++ allows more experts to focus on challenging tokens, thereby unlocking greater performance potential than vanilla MoE. (iii) Deployment Friendly: Given that zero-computation experts have negligible parameters, we can deploy all zero-computation experts on each GPU, eliminating the significant communication overhead and expert load imbalance associated with FFN experts distributed across different GPUs. Moreover, we leverage gating residuals, enabling each token to consider the pathway taken in the previous layer when selecting the appropriate experts. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that MoE++ achieves better performance while delivering 1.1-2.1x expert forward throughput compared to a vanilla MoE model of the same size, which lays a solid foundation for developing advanced and efficient MoE-related models.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) methods based on reconstruction or prediction face two critical challenges: (1) strong generalization capability often results in accurate reconstruction or prediction of abnormal events, making it difficult to distinguish normal from abnormal patterns; (2) reliance only on low-level appearance and motion cues limits their ability to identify high-level semantic in abnormal events from complex scenes. To address these limitations, we propose a novel VAD framework with two key innovations. First, to suppress excessive generalization, we introduce the Sparse Feature Filtering Module (SFFM) that employs bottleneck filters to dynamically and adaptively remove abnormal information from features. Unlike traditional memory modules, it does not need to memorize the normal prototypes across the training dataset. Further, we design the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture for SFFM. Each expert is responsible for extracting specialized principal features during running time, and different experts are selectively activated to ensure the diversity of the learned principal features. Second, to overcome the neglect of semantics in existing methods, we integrate a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to generate textual descriptions for video clips, enabling comprehensive joint modeling of semantic, appearance, and motion cues. Additionally, we enforce modality consistency through semantic similarity constraints and motion frame-difference contrastive loss. Extensive experiments on multiple public datasets validate the effectiveness of our multimodal joint modeling framework and sparse feature filtering paradigm. Project page at https://qzfm.github.io/sfn_vad_project_page/.

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture reduces the training and inference cost significantly compared to a dense model of equivalent capacity. Upcycling is an approach that initializes and trains an MoE model using a pre-trained dense model. While upcycling leads to initial performance gains, the training progresses slower than when trained from scratch, leading to suboptimal performance in the long term. We propose Drop-Upcycling - a method that effectively addresses this problem. Drop-Upcycling combines two seemingly contradictory approaches: utilizing the knowledge of pre-trained dense models while statistically re-initializing some parts of the weights. This approach strategically promotes expert specialization, significantly enhancing the MoE model's efficiency in knowledge acquisition. Extensive large-scale experiments demonstrate that Drop-Upcycling significantly outperforms previous MoE construction methods in the long term, specifically when training on hundreds of billions of tokens or more. As a result, our MoE model with 5.9B active parameters achieves comparable performance to a 13B dense model in the same model family, while requiring approximately 1/4 of the training FLOPs. All experimental resources, including source code, training data, model checkpoints and logs, are publicly available to promote reproducibility and future research on MoE.