Daily Papers

Federated Learning (FL) deployments using IoT devices is an area that is poised to significantly benefit from advances in NextG wireless. In this paper, we deploy a FL application using a 5G-NR Standalone (SA) testbed with open-source and Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS) components. The 5G testbed architecture consists of a network of resource-constrained edge devices, namely Raspberry Pi's, and a central server equipped with a Software Defined Radio (SDR) and running O-RAN software. Our testbed allows edge devices to communicate with the server using WiFi and Ethernet, instead of 5G. FL is deployed using the Flower FL framework, for which we developed a comprehensive instrumentation tool to collect and analyze diverse communications and machine learning performance metrics including: model aggregation time, downlink transmission time, training time, and uplink transmission time. Leveraging these measurements, we perform a comparative analysis of the FL application across three network interfaces: 5G, WiFi, and Ethernet. Our experimental results suggest that, on 5G, the uplink model transfer time is a significant factor in convergence time of FL. In particular, we find that the 5G uplink contributes to roughly 23% of the duration of one average communication round when using all edge devices in our testbed. When comparing the uplink time of the 5G testbed, we find that it is 33.3x higher than Ethernet and 17.8x higher than WiFi. Our results also suggest that 5G exacerbates the well-known straggler effect. For reproducibility, we have open-sourced our FL application, instrumentation tools, and testbed configuration.

Multi-source domain adaptation has been intensively studied. The distribution shift in features inherent to specific domains causes the negative transfer problem, degrading a model's generality to unseen tasks. In Federated Learning (FL), learned model parameters are shared to train a global model that leverages the underlying knowledge across client models trained on separate data domains. Nonetheless, the data confidentiality of FL hinders the effectiveness of traditional domain adaptation methods that require prior knowledge of different domain data. We propose a new federated domain generalization method called Federated Knowledge Alignment (FedKA). FedKA leverages feature distribution matching in a global workspace such that the global model can learn domain-invariant client features under the constraint of unknown client data. FedKA employs a federated voting mechanism that generates target domain pseudo-labels based on the consensus from clients to facilitate global model fine-tuning. We performed extensive experiments, including an ablation study, to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method in both image and text classification tasks using different model architectures. The empirical results show that FedKA achieves performance gains of 8.8% and 3.5% in Digit-Five and Office-Caltech10, respectively, and a gain of 0.7% in Amazon Review with extremely limited training data. Moreover, we studied the effectiveness of FedKA in alleviating the negative transfer of FL based on a new criterion called Group Effect. The results show that FedKA can reduce negative transfer, improving the performance gain via model aggregation by 4 times.

Federated learning is an active research topic since it enables several participants to jointly train a model without sharing local data. Currently, cross-silo federated learning is a popular training setting that utilizes a few hundred reliable data silos with high-speed access links to training a model. While this approach has been widely applied in real-world scenarios, designing a robust topology to reduce the training time remains an open problem. In this paper, we present a new multigraph topology for cross-silo federated learning. We first construct the multigraph using the overlay graph. We then parse this multigraph into different simple graphs with isolated nodes. The existence of isolated nodes allows us to perform model aggregation without waiting for other nodes, hence effectively reducing the training time. Intensive experiments on three public datasets show that our proposed method significantly reduces the training time compared with recent state-of-the-art topologies while maintaining the accuracy of the learned model. Our code can be found at https://github.com/aioz-ai/MultigraphFL

Recent innovations in transformers have shown their superior performance in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). The ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions in sequential data has also triggered a great interest in time series modeling, leading to the widespread use of transformers in many time series applications. However, being the most common and crucial application, the adaptation of transformers to time series forecasting has remained limited, with both promising and inconsistent results. In contrast to the challenges in NLP and CV, time series problems not only add the complexity of order or temporal dependence among input sequences but also consider trend, level, and seasonality information that much of this data is valuable for decision making. The conventional training scheme has shown deficiencies regarding model overfitting, data scarcity, and privacy issues when working with transformers for a forecasting task. In this work, we propose attentive federated transformers for time series stock forecasting with better performance while preserving the privacy of participating enterprises. Empirical results on various stock data from the Yahoo! Finance website indicate the superiority of our proposed scheme in dealing with the above challenges and data heterogeneity in federated learning.

The low-level details and high-level semantics are both essential to the semantic segmentation task. However, to speed up the model inference, current approaches almost always sacrifice the low-level details, which leads to a considerable accuracy decrease. We propose to treat these spatial details and categorical semantics separately to achieve high accuracy and high efficiency for realtime semantic segmentation. To this end, we propose an efficient and effective architecture with a good trade-off between speed and accuracy, termed Bilateral Segmentation Network (BiSeNet V2). This architecture involves: (i) a Detail Branch, with wide channels and shallow layers to capture low-level details and generate high-resolution feature representation; (ii) a Semantic Branch, with narrow channels and deep layers to obtain high-level semantic context. The Semantic Branch is lightweight due to reducing the channel capacity and a fast-downsampling strategy. Furthermore, we design a Guided Aggregation Layer to enhance mutual connections and fuse both types of feature representation. Besides, a booster training strategy is designed to improve the segmentation performance without any extra inference cost. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that the proposed architecture performs favourably against a few state-of-the-art real-time semantic segmentation approaches. Specifically, for a 2,048x1,024 input, we achieve 72.6% Mean IoU on the Cityscapes test set with a speed of 156 FPS on one NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 Ti card, which is significantly faster than existing methods, yet we achieve better segmentation accuracy.

Large-scale video-language pre-training has made remarkable strides in advancing video-language understanding tasks. However, the heavy computational burden of video encoding remains a formidable efficiency bottleneck, particularly for long-form videos. These videos contain massive visual tokens due to their inherent 3D properties and spatiotemporal redundancy, making it challenging to capture complex temporal and spatial relationships. To tackle this issue, we propose an efficient method called TEmporal-Spatial Token Aggregation (TESTA). TESTA condenses video semantics by adaptively aggregating similar frames, as well as similar patches within each frame. TESTA can reduce the number of visual tokens by 75% and thus accelerate video encoding. Building upon TESTA, we introduce a pre-trained video-language model equipped with a divided space-time token aggregation module in each video encoder block. We evaluate our model on five datasets for paragraph-to-video retrieval and long-form VideoQA tasks. Experimental results show that TESTA improves computing efficiency by 1.7 times, and achieves significant performance gains from its scalability in processing longer input frames, e.g., +13.7 R@1 on QuerYD and +6.5 R@1 on Condensed Movie.

Time series forecasting is a fundamental problem with applications in climate, energy, healthcare, and finance. Many existing approaches require domain-specific feature engineering and substantial labeled data for each task. We introduce PatchFormer, a patch-based time series foundation model that uses hierarchical masked reconstruction for self-supervised pretraining and lightweight adapters for efficient transfer. PatchFormer segments time series into patches and learns multiscale temporal representations with learnable aggregation across temporal scales. Pretraining uses masked patch reconstruction with dynamic masking and objectives that encourage both local accuracy and global consistency, followed by cross-domain knowledge distillation. Experiments on 24 benchmark datasets spanning weather, energy, traffic, finance, and healthcare demonstrate state-of-the-art zero-shot multi-horizon forecasting, reducing mean squared error by 27.3 percent relative to strong baselines while requiring 94 percent less task-specific training data. The model exhibits near log-linear scaling with more pretraining data up to 100 billion points and processes length-512 sequences 3.8x faster than full-sequence transformers.

With the increasing demand of autonomous systems, pixelwise semantic segmentation for visual scene understanding needs to be not only accurate but also efficient for potential real-time applications. In this paper, we propose Context Aggregation Network, a dual branch convolutional neural network, with significantly lower computational costs as compared to the state-of-the-art, while maintaining a competitive prediction accuracy. Building upon the existing dual branch architectures for high-speed semantic segmentation, we design a cheap high resolution branch for effective spatial detailing and a context branch with light-weight versions of global aggregation and local distribution blocks, potent to capture both long-range and local contextual dependencies required for accurate semantic segmentation, with low computational overheads. We evaluate our method on two semantic segmentation datasets, namely Cityscapes dataset and UAVid dataset. For Cityscapes test set, our model achieves state-of-the-art results with mIOU of 75.9%, at 76 FPS on an NVIDIA RTX 2080Ti and 8 FPS on a Jetson Xavier NX. With regards to UAVid dataset, our proposed network achieves mIOU score of 63.5% with high execution speed (15 FPS).

Test-time scaling improves the reasoning performance of large language models but often results in token-inefficient overthinking, where models continue reasoning beyond what is necessary for a correct answer. Existing dynamic early-exit methods typically rely on single-step confidence signals, which are often unreliable for detecting reasoning convergence in multi-step settings. To mitigate this limitation, we propose TRACE, a training-free framework for efficient test-time scaling that determines when to terminate reasoning based on temporal aggregation of multi-step evidence rather than instantaneous signals. TRACE detects reasoning convergence over time by aggregating two complementary signals across recent reasoning steps: answer consistency, capturing the persistence of predicted answers, and confidence trajectory, modeling the temporal evolution of model confidence. Benefiting from these two factors, TRACE can accurately determine whether the reasoning process has converged, thereby promptly halting inference and effectively avoiding redundant reasoning steps. Extensive experiments on multiple challenging benchmarks show that TRACE reduces reasoning token usage by 25-30% on average while maintaining accuracy within 1-2% of full-length reasoning, consistently outperforming existing dynamic reasoning methods.

Maintaining road pavement integrity is crucial for ensuring safe and efficient transportation. Conventional methods for assessing pavement condition are often laborious and susceptible to human error. This paper proposes YOLO9tr, a novel lightweight object detection model for pavement damage detection, leveraging the advancements of deep learning. YOLO9tr is based on the YOLOv9 architecture, incorporating a partial attention block that enhances feature extraction and attention mechanisms, leading to improved detection performance in complex scenarios. The model is trained on a comprehensive dataset comprising road damage images from multiple countries, including an expanded set of damage categories beyond the standard four. This broadened classification range allows for a more accurate and realistic assessment of pavement conditions. Comparative analysis demonstrates YOLO9tr's superior precision and inference speed compared to state-of-the-art models like YOLO8, YOLO9 and YOLO10, achieving a balance between computational efficiency and detection accuracy. The model achieves a high frame rate of up to 136 FPS, making it suitable for real-time applications such as video surveillance and automated inspection systems. The research presents an ablation study to analyze the impact of architectural modifications and hyperparameter variations on model performance, further validating the effectiveness of the partial attention block. The results highlight YOLO9tr's potential for practical deployment in real-time pavement condition monitoring, contributing to the development of robust and efficient solutions for maintaining safe and functional road infrastructure.

We introduce TimeViper, a hybrid vision-language model designed to tackle challenges of long video understanding. Processing long videos demands both an efficient model architecture and an effective mechanism for handling extended temporal contexts. To this end, TimeViper adopts a hybrid Mamba-Transformer backbone that combines the efficiency of state-space models with the expressivity of attention mechanisms. Through this hybrid design, we reveal the vision-to-text information aggregation phenomenon, where information progressively flows from vision tokens to text tokens across increasing LLM depth, resulting in severe vision token redundancy. Motivated by this observation, we propose TransV, a token information transfer module that transfers and compresses vision tokens into instruction tokens while maintaining multimodal understanding capabilities. This design enables TimeViper to process hour-long videos exceeding 10,000 frames. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that TimeViper competes with state-of-the-art models while extending frame numbers. We further analyze attention behaviors of both Mamba and Transformer layers, offering new insights into hybrid model interpretability. This work represents an initial step towards developing, interpreting, and compressing hybrid Mamba-Transformer architectures.

Motion blur caused by camera or object movement severely degrades image quality and poses challenges for real-time applications such as autonomous driving, UAV perception, and medical imaging. In this paper, a lightweight U-shaped network tailored for real-time deblurring is presented and named RT-Focuser. To balance speed and accuracy, we design three key components: Lightweight Deblurring Block (LD) for edge-aware feature extraction, Multi-Level Integrated Aggregation module (MLIA) for encoder integration, and Cross-source Fusion Block (X-Fuse) for progressive decoder refinement. Trained on a single blurred input, RT-Focuser achieves 30.67 dB PSNR with only 5.85M parameters and 15.76 GMACs. It runs 6ms per frame on GPU and mobile, exceeds 140 FPS on both, showing strong potential for deployment on the edge. The official code and usage are available on: https://github.com/ReaganWu/RT-Focuser.

Parallel test-time scaling (TTS) is a pivotal approach for enhancing large language models (LLMs), typically by sampling multiple token-based chains-of-thought in parallel and aggregating outcomes through voting or search. Recent advances in latent reasoning, where intermediate reasoning unfolds in continuous vector spaces, offer a more efficient alternative to explicit Chain-of-Thought, yet whether such latent models can similarly benefit from parallel TTS remains open, mainly due to the absence of sampling mechanisms in continuous space, and the lack of probabilistic signals for advanced trajectory aggregation. \ This work enables parallel TTS for latent reasoning models by addressing the above issues. For sampling, we introduce two uncertainty-inspired stochastic strategies: Monte Carlo Dropout and Additive Gaussian Noise. For aggregation, we design a Latent Reward Model (LatentRM) trained with step-wise contrastive objective to score and guide latent reasoning. Extensive experiments and visualization analyses show that both sampling strategies scale effectively with compute and exhibit distinct exploration dynamics, while LatentRM enables effective trajectory selection. Together, our explorations open a new direction for scalable inference in continuous spaces. Code released at https://github.com/YRYangang/LatentTTS.

Test-time scaling methods improve the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by increasing the amount of compute used during inference to make a prediction. Inference-time compute can be scaled in parallel by choosing among multiple independent solutions or sequentially through self-refinement. We propose Recursive Self-Aggregation (RSA), a test-time scaling method inspired by evolutionary methods that combines the benefits of both parallel and sequential scaling. Each step of RSA refines a population of candidate reasoning chains through aggregation of subsets to yield a population of improved solutions, which are then used as the candidate pool for the next iteration. Empirically, RSA delivers substantial performance gains with increasing compute budgets across diverse tasks, model families and sizes. Notably, RSA with Gemini 3 Flash attains performance near the top of the ARC-AGI-2 public leaderboard. RSA also enables Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507 to achieve competitive performance with larger reasoning models, including DeepSeek-R1 and o3-mini (high), outperforming purely parallel and sequential scaling strategies across AIME-25, HMMT-25, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench-v6, and SuperGPQA. We further propose a novel aggregation-aware reinforcement learning approach that yields significant performance gains by training the model to combine solutions.

Inference-time scaling enhances the reasoning ability of a language model (LM) by extending its chain-of-thought (CoT). However, existing approaches typically generate the entire reasoning chain in a single forward pass, which often leads to CoT derailment, i.e., the reasoning trajectory drifting off course due to compounding errors. This problem is particularly severe for smaller LMs with long CoTs due to their limited capacity. To address this, we analyze raw long CoTs and uncover a reasoning hierarchy consisting of planning and execution steps. Our analysis reveals that most reasoning errors stem from incorrect planning. Motivated by this observation, we propose Multi-Path Plan Aggregation (MPPA), a framework that augments single-pass reasoning with plan exploration and aggregation. Following a variable interval schedule based on the token position, MPPA generates multiple candidate plans and aggregates them into a refined planning step. To maintain efficiency, we adopt a minimal design in which the base LM serves as the primary policy, while a lightweight LoRA module implements the plan aggregation policy. We further observe that outcome-reward RL is inefficient for long trajectories (e.g., exceeding 4K tokens). To overcome this, we introduce online Step-DPO, a process-level preference optimization scheme that leverages Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TSMC) to provide scalable stepwise supervision using small LMs. This yields more efficient training, improved stability, and higher accuracy. Extensive experiments on challenging math, science, and logical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that, with only 10% SFT data and 5% of preference pairs, our method outperforms both the DeepSeek-R1 distillation baseline and the outcome-reward RL baseline across multiple base models and tasks.

Tiny Recursive Models (TRM) solve complex reasoning tasks with a fraction of the parameters of modern large language models (LLMs) by iteratively refining a latent state and final answer. While powerful, their deterministic recursion can lead to convergence at suboptimal solutions, without escape mechanism. A common workaround relies on task-specific input perturbations at test time combined with answer aggregation via voting. We introduce Probabilistic TRM (PTRM), a task-agnostic framework for test-time compute scaling that addresses this limitation through stochastic exploration. PTRM injects Gaussian noise at each deep recursion step, enabling parallel trajectories to explore diverse solution basins, and selects among them using the model's existing Q head (used for early stopping in the original TRM). Without requiring retraining or task-specific augmentations, PTRM enables substantial accuracy gains across benchmarks, including Sudoku-Extreme (87.4% to 98.75%) and on various puzzles from Pencil Puzzle Bench (62.6% to 91.2%). On the latter, PTRM achieves nearly double the accuracy of frontier LLMs (91.2% vs. 55.1%) at less than 0.0001x the cost, using only 7M parameters.

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly given the recent rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have narrow domain coverage or overlook important real-world settings, such as tasks with covariates. Additionally, their aggregation procedures often lack statistical rigor, making it unclear whether observed performance differences reflect true improvements or random variation. Many benchmarks also fail to provide infrastructure for consistent evaluation or are too rigid to integrate into existing pipelines. To address these gaps, we propose fev-bench, a benchmark comprising 100 forecasting tasks across seven domains, including 46 tasks with covariates. Supporting the benchmark, we introduce fev, a lightweight Python library for benchmarking forecasting models that emphasizes reproducibility and seamless integration with existing workflows. Usingfev, fev-bench employs principled aggregation methods with bootstrapped confidence intervals to report model performance along two complementary dimensions: win rates and skill scores. We report results on fev-bench for various pretrained, statistical and baseline models, and identify promising directions for future research.

Existing stereo matching networks typically rely on either cost-volume construction based on 3D convolutions or deformation methods based on iterative optimization. The former incurs significant computational overhead during cost aggregation, whereas the latter often lacks the ability to model non-local contextual information. These methods exhibit poor compatibility on resource-constrained mobile devices, limiting their deployment in real-time applications. To address this, we propose a Multi-frequency Adaptive Fusion Network (MAFNet), which can produce high-quality disparity maps using only efficient 2D convolutions. Specifically, we design an adaptive frequency-domain filtering attention module that decomposes the full cost volume into high-frequency and low-frequency volumes, performing frequency-aware feature aggregation separately. Subsequently, we introduce a Linformer-based low-rank attention mechanism to adaptively fuse high- and low-frequency information, yielding more robust disparity estimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed MAFNet significantly outperforms existing real-time methods on public datasets such as Scene Flow and KITTI 2015, showing a favorable balance between accuracy and real-time performance.

In cross-device Federated Learning (FL) environments, scaling synchronous FL methods is challenging as stragglers hinder the training process. Moreover, the availability of each client to join the training is highly variable over time due to system heterogeneities and intermittent connectivity. Recent asynchronous FL methods (e.g., FedBuff) have been proposed to overcome these issues by allowing slower users to continue their work on local training based on stale models and to contribute to aggregation when ready. However, we show empirically that this method can lead to a substantial drop in training accuracy as well as a slower convergence rate. The primary reason is that fast-speed devices contribute to many more rounds of aggregation while others join more intermittently or not at all, and with stale model updates. To overcome this barrier, we propose TimelyFL, a heterogeneity-aware asynchronous FL framework with adaptive partial training. During the training, TimelyFL adjusts the local training workload based on the real-time resource capabilities of each client, aiming to allow more available clients to join in the global update without staleness. We demonstrate the performance benefits of TimelyFL by conducting extensive experiments on various datasets (e.g., CIFAR-10, Google Speech, and Reddit) and models (e.g., ResNet20, VGG11, and ALBERT). In comparison with the state-of-the-art (i.e., FedBuff), our evaluations reveal that TimelyFL improves participation rate by 21.13%, harvests 1.28x - 2.89x more efficiency on convergence rate, and provides a 6.25% increment on test accuracy.

Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.

Language model reasoning can be substantially improved at test time via scaffolds that scale inference compute across different primitives -- sequential reasoning within a trace, independently sampled parallel traces, and aggregation of multiple reasoning traces into a final response. During post-training, however, language models are optimized only for sequential reasoning within a single trace. We introduce Sequential-Parallel-Aggregative Reinforcement Learning (SPIRAL), a framework in which a language model is trained to use all three primitives, as part of a unified inference compute pipeline. Concretely, the language model first samples a set of independent traces in parallel, each produced through sequential chain-of-thought reasoning, and then generates a final aggregation trace conditioned on those traces; all components are optimized end-to-end against the reward of the final aggregated response. To train this system, SPIRAL uses set reinforcement learning to teach models to produce a set of traces that are collectively useful for an aggregator and standard reinforcement learning to teach models to aggregate the set into improved final responses. Our experiments on reasoning tasks show that SPIRAL effectively scales with inference compute, outperforming GRPO by up to 11times scaling efficiency and 15% higher performance when all three compute primitives are scaled.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown strong potential for ranking by capturing semantic relevance and adapting across diverse domains, yet existing methods remain constrained by limited context length and high computational costs, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios where candidate pools often scale to millions. To address this challenge, we propose LRanker, a framework tailored for large-candidate ranking. LRanker incorporates a candidate aggregation encoder that leverages K-means clustering to explicitly model global candidate information, and a graph-based test-time scaling mechanism that partitions candidates into subsets, generates multiple query embeddings, and integrates them through an ensemble procedure. By aggregating diverse embeddings instead of relying on a single representation, this mechanism enhances robustness and expressiveness, leading to more accurate ranking over massive candidate pools. We evaluate LRanker on seven tasks across three scenarios in RBench with different candidate scales. Experimental results show that LRanker achieves over 30% gains in the RBench-Small scenario, improves by 3-9% in MRR in the RBench-Large scenario, and sustains scalability with 20-30% improvements in the RBench-Ultra scenario with more than 6.8M candidates. Ablation studies further verify the effectiveness of its key components. Together, these findings demonstrate the robustness, scalability, and effectiveness of LRanker for massive-candidate ranking.

Reliably labelling data typically requires annotations from multiple human workers. However, humans are far from being perfect. Hence, it is a common practice to aggregate labels gathered from multiple annotators to make a more confident estimate of the true label. Among many aggregation methods, the simple and well known Majority Vote (MV) selects the class label polling the highest number of votes. However, despite its importance, the optimality of MV's label aggregation has not been extensively studied. We address this gap in our work by characterising the conditions under which MV achieves the theoretically optimal lower bound on label estimation error. Our results capture the tolerable limits on annotation noise under which MV can optimally recover labels for a given class distribution. This certificate of optimality provides a more principled approach to model selection for label aggregation as an alternative to otherwise inefficient practices that sometimes include higher experts, gold labels, etc., that are all marred by the same human uncertainty despite huge time and monetary costs. Experiments on both synthetic and real world data corroborate our theoretical findings.

Large Language Models' (LLM) reasoning can be improved using test-time aggregation strategies, i.e., generating multiple samples and voting among generated samples. While these improve performance, they often reach a saturation point. Refinement offers an alternative by using LLM-generated feedback to improve solution quality. However, refinement introduces 3 key challenges: (1) Excessive refinement: Uniformly refining all instances can over-correct and reduce the overall performance. (2) Inability to localize and address errors: LLMs have a limited ability to self-correct and struggle to identify and correct their own mistakes. (3) Insufficient refinement: Deciding how many iterations of refinement are needed is non-trivial, and stopping too soon could leave errors unaddressed. To tackle these issues, we propose MAgICoRe, which avoids excessive refinement by categorizing problem difficulty as easy or hard, solving easy problems with coarse-grained aggregation and hard ones with fine-grained and iterative multi-agent refinement. To improve error localization, we incorporate external step-wise reward model (RM) scores. Moreover, to ensure effective refinement, we employ a multi-agent loop with three agents: Solver, Reviewer (which generates targeted feedback based on step-wise RM scores), and the Refiner (which incorporates feedback). To ensure sufficient refinement, we re-evaluate updated solutions, iteratively initiating further rounds of refinement. We evaluate MAgICoRe on Llama-3-8B and GPT-3.5 and show its effectiveness across 5 math datasets. Even one iteration of MAgICoRe beats Self-Consistency by 3.4%, Best-of-k by 3.2%, and Self-Refine by 4.0% while using less than half the samples. Unlike iterative refinement with baselines, MAgICoRe continues to improve with more iterations. Finally, our ablations highlight the importance of MAgICoRe's RMs and multi-agent communication.

We introduce Dynaboard, an evaluation-as-a-service framework for hosting benchmarks and conducting holistic model comparison, integrated with the Dynabench platform. Our platform evaluates NLP models directly instead of relying on self-reported metrics or predictions on a single dataset. Under this paradigm, models are submitted to be evaluated in the cloud, circumventing the issues of reproducibility, accessibility, and backwards compatibility that often hinder benchmarking in NLP. This allows users to interact with uploaded models in real time to assess their quality, and permits the collection of additional metrics such as memory use, throughput, and robustness, which -- despite their importance to practitioners -- have traditionally been absent from leaderboards. On each task, models are ranked according to the Dynascore, a novel utility-based aggregation of these statistics, which users can customize to better reflect their preferences, placing more/less weight on a particular axis of evaluation or dataset. As state-of-the-art NLP models push the limits of traditional benchmarks, Dynaboard offers a standardized solution for a more diverse and comprehensive evaluation of model quality.

The reliability of large language models (LLMs) during test-time scaling is often assessed with external verifiers or reward models that distinguish correct reasoning from flawed logic. Prior work generally assumes that process reward models (PRMs), which score every intermediate reasoning step, outperform outcome reward models (ORMs) that assess only the final answer. This view is based mainly on evidence from narrow, math-adjacent domains. We present the first unified evaluation of four reward model variants, discriminative ORM and PRM (\DisORM, \DisPRM) and generative ORM and PRM (\GenORM, \GenPRM), across 14 diverse domains. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that (i) \DisORM performs on par with \DisPRM, (ii) \GenPRM is not competitive, and (iii) overall, \GenORM is the most robust, yielding significant and consistent gains across every tested domain. We attribute this to PRM-style stepwise scoring, which inherits label noise from LLM auto-labeling and has difficulty evaluating long reasoning trajectories, including those involving self-correcting reasoning. Our theoretical analysis shows that step-wise aggregation compounds errors as reasoning length grows, and our empirical observations confirm this effect. These findings challenge the prevailing assumption that fine-grained supervision is always better and support generative outcome verification for multi-domain deployment. We publicly release our code, datasets, and checkpoints at https://github.com/db-Lee/Multi-RM{\small\texttt{https://github.com/db-Lee/Multi-RM}} to facilitate future research in multi-domain settings.

The success of large language models (LLMs) for time series has been demonstrated in previous work. Utilizing a symbolic time series representation, one can efficiently bridge the gap between LLMs and time series. However, the remaining challenge is to exploit the semantic information hidden in time series by using symbols or existing tokens of LLMs, while aligning the embedding space of LLMs according to the hidden information of time series. The symbolic time series approximation (STSA) method called adaptive Brownian bridge-based symbolic aggregation (ABBA) shows outstanding efficacy in preserving salient time series features by modeling time series patterns in terms of amplitude and period while using existing tokens of LLMs. In this paper, we introduce a method, called LLM-ABBA, that integrates ABBA into large language models for various downstream time series tasks. By symbolizing time series, LLM-ABBA compares favorably to the recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) in UCR and three medical time series classification tasks. Meanwhile, a fixed-polygonal chain trick in ABBA is introduced to avoid obvious drifting during forecasting tasks by significantly mitigating the effects of cumulative error arising from misused symbols during the transition from symbols to numerical values. In time series regression tasks, LLM-ABBA achieves the new SOTA on Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER) benchmarks. LLM-ABBA also shows competitive forecasting capability compared to recent SOTA time series forecasting results. We believe this framework can also seamlessly extend to other time series tasks. Our simulation code is publicly available at: https://github.com/inEXASCALE/llm-abba

Test-time scaling via solution sampling and aggregation has become a key paradigm for improving the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). While reward model selection is commonly employed in this approach, it often fails to identify minority-yet-correct answers, which limits its effectiveness beyond that of simple majority voting. We argue that this limitation stems from a lack of informative critique signals during verifier training. To bridge this gap, we introduce Mirror-Critique, a framework that trains a verifier with informative critiques. Our key insight is to leverage the rich critique signal by contrasting model-generated solutions with ground-truth solutions. We deploy a small instruction-tuned model to synthesize high-quality critique data with rejection sampling that teaches the verifier not only what is wrong, but also why. The synthetic data is used to cold-start the LLMs in the RLVR process to further improve the verification ability. The resulting Mirror-Verifier is deployed to evaluate candidate solutions by generating multiple critiques per solution, aggregating them into a verify score used for weighted voting or selective abstention. The experimental results show that our Mirror-Verifier significantly outperforms majority voting in terms of solution accuracy and also improves the solver's honesty to recognize and abstain from answering beyond its capability boundaries.

In recent years, a standard computational pathology workflow has emerged where whole slide images are cropped into tiles, these tiles are processed using a foundation model, and task-specific models are built using the resulting representations. At least 15 different foundation models have been proposed, and the vast majority are trained exclusively with tiles using the 20times magnification. However, it is well known that certain histologic features can only be discerned with larger context windows and requires a pathologist to zoom in and out when analyzing a whole slide image. Furthermore, creating 224times224 pixel crops at 20times leads to a large number of tiles per slide, which can be gigapixel in size. To more accurately capture multi-resolution features and investigate the possibility of reducing the number of representations per slide, we propose a region-level mixing encoder. Our approach jointly fuses image tile representations of a mixed magnification foundation model using a masked embedding modeling pretraining step. We explore a design space for pretraining the proposed mixed-magnification region aggregators and evaluate our models on transfer to biomarker prediction tasks representing various cancer types. Results demonstrate cancer dependent improvements in predictive performance, highlighting the importance of spatial context and understanding.

Scaling up test-time compute, by generating multiple independent solutions and selecting or aggregating among them, has become a central paradigm for improving large language models (LLMs) on challenging reasoning tasks. While most prior work relies on simple majority voting or reward model ranking to aggregate solutions, these approaches may only yield limited benefits. In this work, we propose to learn aggregation as an explicit reasoning skill: given a set of candidate solutions, we train an aggregator model to review, reconcile, and synthesize a final, correct answer using reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards. A key ingredient is careful balancing of easy and hard training examples, allowing the model to learn both to recover minority-but-correct answers as well as easy majority-correct answers. Empirically, we find our method, AggLM, outperforms both strong rule-based and reward-model baselines, across multiple benchmarks. Furthermore, it generalizes effectively to solutions from differing models, including stronger ones than contained in the training data, all while requiring substantially fewer tokens than majority voting with larger numbers of solutions.

Object removal differs from common inpainting, since it must prevent the masked target from reappearing and reconstruct the occluded background with structural and contextual fidelity, rather than merely filling a hole plausibly. Recent dataset-free approaches that redirect self-attention inside the mask fail in two ways: non-target foregrounds are often misinterpreted as background, which regenerates unwanted objects, and direct attention manipulation disrupts fine details and hinders coherent integration of background cues. We propose EraseLoRA, a novel dataset-free framework that replaces attention surgery with background-aware reasoning and test-time adaptation. First, Background-aware Foreground Exclusion (BFE), uses a multimodal large-language models to separate target foreground, non-target foregrounds, and clean background from a single image-mask pair without paired supervision, producing reliable background cues while excluding distractors. Second, Background-aware Reconstruction with Subtype Aggregation (BRSA), performs test-time optimization that treats inferred background subtypes as complementary pieces and enforces their consistent integration through reconstruction and alignment objectives, preserving local detail and global structure without explicit attention intervention. We validate EraseLoRA as a plug-in to pretrained diffusion models and across benchmarks for object removal, demonstrating consistent improvements over dataset-free baselines and competitive results against dataset-driven methods. The code will be made available upon publication.

Despite the remarkable progress made by learning based stereo matching algorithms, one key challenge remains unsolved. Current state-of-the-art stereo models are mostly based on costly 3D convolutions, the cubic computational complexity and high memory consumption make it quite expensive to deploy in real-world applications. In this paper, we aim at completely replacing the commonly used 3D convolutions to achieve fast inference speed while maintaining comparable accuracy. To this end, we first propose a sparse points based intra-scale cost aggregation method to alleviate the well-known edge-fattening issue at disparity discontinuities. Further, we approximate traditional cross-scale cost aggregation algorithm with neural network layers to handle large textureless regions. Both modules are simple, lightweight, and complementary, leading to an effective and efficient architecture for cost aggregation. With these two modules, we can not only significantly speed up existing top-performing models (e.g., 41times than GC-Net, 4times than PSMNet and 38times than GA-Net), but also improve the performance of fast stereo models (e.g., StereoNet). We also achieve competitive results on Scene Flow and KITTI datasets while running at 62ms, demonstrating the versatility and high efficiency of the proposed method. Our full framework is available at https://github.com/haofeixu/aanet .

Signed networks allow us to model conflicting relationships and interactions, such as friend/enemy and support/oppose. These signed interactions happen in real-time. Modeling such dynamics of signed networks is crucial to understanding the evolution of polarization in the network and enabling effective prediction of the signed structure (i.e., link signs and signed weights) in the future. However, existing works have modeled either (static) signed networks or dynamic (unsigned) networks but not dynamic signed networks. Since both sign and dynamics inform the graph structure in different ways, it is non-trivial to model how to combine the two features. In this work, we propose a new Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach to model dynamic signed networks, named SEMBA: Signed link's Evolution using Memory modules and Balanced Aggregation. Here, the idea is to incorporate the signs of temporal interactions using separate modules guided by balance theory and to evolve the embeddings from a higher-order neighborhood. Experiments on 4 real-world datasets and 4 different tasks demonstrate that SEMBA consistently and significantly outperforms the baselines by up to 80% on the tasks of predicting signs of future links while matching the state-of-the-art performance on predicting the existence of these links in the future. We find that this improvement is due specifically to the superior performance of SEMBA on the minority negative class.

This paper introduces ITA-MDT, the Image-Timestep-Adaptive Masked Diffusion Transformer Framework for Image-Based Virtual Try-On (IVTON), designed to overcome the limitations of previous approaches by leveraging the Masked Diffusion Transformer (MDT) for improved handling of both global garment context and fine-grained details. The IVTON task involves seamlessly superimposing a garment from one image onto a person in another, creating a realistic depiction of the person wearing the specified garment. Unlike conventional diffusion-based virtual try-on models that depend on large pre-trained U-Net architectures, ITA-MDT leverages a lightweight, scalable transformer-based denoising diffusion model with a mask latent modeling scheme, achieving competitive results while reducing computational overhead. A key component of ITA-MDT is the Image-Timestep Adaptive Feature Aggregator (ITAFA), a dynamic feature aggregator that combines all of the features from the image encoder into a unified feature of the same size, guided by diffusion timestep and garment image complexity. This enables adaptive weighting of features, allowing the model to emphasize either global information or fine-grained details based on the requirements of the denoising stage. Additionally, the Salient Region Extractor (SRE) module is presented to identify complex region of the garment to provide high-resolution local information to the denoising model as an additional condition alongside the global information of the full garment image. This targeted conditioning strategy enhances detail preservation of fine details in highly salient garment regions, optimizing computational resources by avoiding unnecessarily processing entire garment image. Comparative evaluations confirms that ITA-MDT improves efficiency while maintaining strong performance, reaching state-of-the-art results in several metrics.

The computer vision domain has greatly benefited from an abundance of data across many modalities to improve on various visual tasks. Recently, there has been a lot of focus on self-supervised pre-training methods through Masked Autoencoders (MAE) he2022masked,bachmann2022multimae, usually used as a first step before optimizing for a downstream task, such as classification or regression. This is very useful as it doesn't require any manually labeled data. In this work, we introduce Probabilistic Hyper-Graphs using Masked Autoencoders (PHG-MAE): a novel model that unifies the classical work on neural graphs leordeanu2021semi with the modern approach of masked autoencoders under a common theoretical framework. Through random masking of entire modalities, not just patches, the model samples from the distribution of hyper-edges on each forward pass. Additionally, the model adapts the standard MAE algorithm by combining pre-training and fine-tuning into a single training loop. Moreover, our approach enables the creation of inference-time ensembles which, through aggregation, boost the final prediction performance and consistency. Lastly, we show that we can apply knowledge distillation on top of the ensembles with little loss in performance, even with models that have fewer than 1M parameters. While our work mostly focuses on outdoor UAV scenes that contain multiple world interpretations and modalities, the same steps can be followed in other similar domains, such as autonomous driving or indoor robotics. In order to streamline the process of integrating external pre-trained experts for computer vision multi-modal multi-task learning (MTL) scenarios, we developed a data-pipeline software. Using this tool, we have created and released a fully-automated extension of the Dronescapes dataset. All the technical details, code and reproduction steps are publicly released.

Vision-language models achieve strong performance across a wide range of multimodal understanding and reasoning tasks, yet their multi-step reasoning remains unstable. Repeated sampling over the same input often produces divergent reasoning trajectories and inconsistent final predictions. To address this, we introduce two complementary approaches inspired by test-time scaling: (1) CASHEW, an inference-time framework that stabilizes reasoning by iteratively aggregating multiple candidate trajectories into higher-quality reasoning traces, with explicit visual verification filtering hallucinated steps and grounding reasoning in visual evidence, and (2) CASHEW-RL, a learned variant that internalizes this aggregation behavior within a single model. CASHEW-RL is trained using Group Sequence Policy Optimization (GSPO) with a composite reward that encourages correct answers grounded in minimal yet sufficient visual evidence, while adaptively allocating reasoning effort based on task difficulty. This training objective enables robust self-aggregation at inference. Extensive experiments on 13 image understanding, video understanding, and video reasoning benchmarks show significant performance improvements, including gains of up to +23.6 percentage points on ScienceQA and +8.1 percentage points on EgoSchema.

Scaling data and model size has been proven effective for boosting the performance of large language models. In addition to training-time scaling, recent studies have revealed that increasing test-time computational resources can further improve performance. In this work, we introduce Aggregation Fine-Tuning (AFT), a supervised finetuning paradigm where the model learns to synthesize multiple draft responses, referred to as proposals, into a single, refined answer, termed aggregation. At inference time, a propose-and-aggregate strategy further boosts performance by iteratively generating proposals and aggregating them. Empirical evaluations on benchmark datasets show that AFT-trained models substantially outperform standard SFT. Notably, an AFT model, fine-tuned from Llama3.1-8B-Base with only 64k data, achieves a 41.3% LC win rate on AlpacaEval 2, surpassing significantly larger LLMs such as Llama3.1-405B-Instruct and GPT4. By combining sequential refinement and parallel sampling, the propose-and-aggregate framework scales inference-time computation in a flexible manner. Overall, These findings position AFT as a promising approach to unlocking additional capabilities of LLMs without resorting to increasing data volume or model size.

Diffusion transformers have demonstrated remarkable generative capabilities, yet the rich perceptual representations computed across their denoising trajectory are discarded once the content is rendered. We present MMDiff, a framework that transforms a frozen diffusion transformer into a multi-modal generative system that jointly produces images alongside any combination of dense perceptual modalities using lightweight decoder heads. Our central finding is that perceptual information is temporally distributed along the denoising trajectory, and that multi-timestep feature fusion with spatially varying aggregation weights is essential, improving semantic segmentation results by up to 28.7% mIoU over single-timestep extraction. We further adopt concept-driven attention extraction for interpretable spatial guidance, and show that frozen diffusion features are competitive with and complementary to state-of-the-art encoders such as DINOv3. By training only lightweight decoder heads on a frozen backbone, we achieve strong performance in semantic segmentation, salient object detection, and depth estimation, and demonstrate that this framework enables effective synthetic data generation at scale.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, yet a unified treatment of their overlapping safety challenges remains lacking. We present SafeLM, a framework that jointly addresses four pillars of LLM safety: privacy, security, misinformation, and adversarial robustness. SafeLM combines federated training with gradient smartification and Paillier encryption for privacy, integrates defenses against training and inference-time attacks, employs contrastive grounding with calibrated decoding to reduce hallucinations, and introduces alignment-aware binarized aggregation to enhance robustness while maintaining bounded reconstruction quality. Across benchmarks on factuality, toxicity, and membership inference, SafeLM achieves 98.0% harmful content detection accuracy, reduces communication by 96.9%, and lowers gradient inversion PSNR from 31.7 dB to 15.1 dB. Ablations show that each component contributes independently, whereas their integration yields a strong privacy utility efficiency trade-off for deploying trustworthy LLMs.

In modern machine learning problems we deal with datasets that are either distributed by nature or potentially large for which distributing the computations is usually a standard way to proceed, since centralized algorithms are in general ineffective. We propose a distributed learning approach for mixtures of experts (MoE) models with an aggregation strategy to construct a reduction estimator from local estimators fitted parallelly to distributed subsets of the data. The aggregation is based on an optimal minimization of an expected transportation divergence between the large MoE composed of local estimators and the unknown desired MoE model. We show that the provided reduction estimator is consistent as soon as the local estimators to be aggregated are consistent, and its construction is performed by a proposed majorization-minimization (MM) algorithm that is computationally effective. We study the statistical and numerical properties for the proposed reduction estimator on experiments that demonstrate its performance compared to namely the global estimator constructed in a centralized way from the full dataset. For some situations, the computation time is more than ten times faster, for a comparable performance. Our source codes are publicly available on Github.

Large language models (LLMs), despite strong performance on complex mathematical problems, exhibit systematic limitations in counting tasks. This issue arises from architectural limits of transformers, where counting is performed across layers, leading to degraded precision for larger counting problems due to depth constraints. To address this limitation, we propose a simple test-time strategy inspired by System-2 cognitive processes that decomposes large counting tasks into smaller, independent sub-problems that the model can reliably solve. We evaluate this approach using observational and causal mediation analyses to understand the underlying mechanism of this System-2-like strategy. Our mechanistic analysis identifies key components: latent counts are computed and stored in the final item representations of each part, transferred to intermediate steps via dedicated attention heads, and aggregated in the final stage to produce the total count. Experimental results demonstrate that this strategy enables LLMs to surpass architectural limitations and achieve high accuracy on large-scale counting tasks. This work provides mechanistic insight into System-2 counting in LLMs and presents a generalizable approach for improving and understanding their reasoning behavior.

We study parallel test-time scaling for long-horizon agentic tasks such as agentic search and deep research, where multiple rollouts are generated in parallel and aggregated into a final response. While such scaling has proven effective for chain-of-thought reasoning, agentic tasks pose unique challenges: trajectories are long, multi-turn, and tool-augmented, and outputs are often open-ended. Aggregating only final answers discards rich information from trajectories, while concatenating all trajectories exceeds the model's context window. To address this, we propose AggAgent, an aggregation agent that treats parallel trajectories as an environment. We equip it with lightweight tools to inspect candidate solutions and search across trajectories, enabling it to navigate and synthesize information on demand. Across six benchmarks and three model families (GLM-4.7, Qwen3.5, MiniMax-M2.5), AggAgent outperforms all existing aggregation methods-by up to 5.3% absolute on average and 10.3% on two deep research tasks-while adding minimal overhead, as the aggregation cost remains bounded by a single agentic rollout. Our findings establish agentic aggregation as an effective and cost-efficient approach to parallel test-time scaling.

In Machine Learning, a benchmark refers to an ensemble of datasets associated with one or multiple metrics together with a way to aggregate different systems performances. They are instrumental in (i) assessing the progress of new methods along different axes and (ii) selecting the best systems for practical use. This is particularly the case for NLP with the development of large pre-trained models (e.g. GPT, BERT) that are expected to generalize well on a variety of tasks. While the community mainly focused on developing new datasets and metrics, there has been little interest in the aggregation procedure, which is often reduced to a simple average over various performance measures. However, this procedure can be problematic when the metrics are on a different scale, which may lead to spurious conclusions. This paper proposes a new procedure to rank systems based on their performance across different tasks. Motivated by the social choice theory, the final system ordering is obtained through aggregating the rankings induced by each task and is theoretically grounded. We conduct extensive numerical experiments (on over 270k scores) to assess the soundness of our approach both on synthetic and real scores (e.g. GLUE, EXTREM, SEVAL, TAC, FLICKR). In particular, we show that our method yields different conclusions on state-of-the-art systems than the mean-aggregation procedure while being both more reliable and robust.

Modern ML applications increasingly rely on complex deep learning models and large datasets. There has been an exponential growth in the amount of computation needed to train the largest models. Therefore, to scale computation and data, these models are inevitably trained in a distributed manner in clusters of nodes, and their updates are aggregated before being applied to the model. However, a distributed setup is prone to Byzantine failures of individual nodes, components, and software. With data augmentation added to these settings, there is a critical need for robust and efficient aggregation systems. We define the quality of workers as reconstruction ratios in (0,1], and formulate aggregation as a Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure using Beta densities. We show that the Regularized form of log-likelihood wrt subspace can be approximately solved using iterative least squares solver, and provide convergence guarantees using recent Convex Optimization landscape results. Our empirical findings demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances the robustness of state-of-the-art Byzantine resilient aggregators. We evaluate our method in a distributed setup with a parameter server, and show simultaneous improvements in communication efficiency and accuracy across various tasks. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/hamidralmasi/FlagAggregator

In an asynchronous federated learning framework, the server updates the global model once it receives an update from a client instead of waiting for all the updates to arrive as in the synchronous setting. This allows heterogeneous devices with varied computing power to train the local models without pausing, thereby speeding up the training process. However, it introduces the stale model problem, where the newly arrived update was calculated based on a set of stale weights that are older than the current global model, which may hurt the convergence of the model. In this paper, we present an asynchronous federated learning framework with a proposed adaptive weight aggregation algorithm, referred to as AsyncFedED. To the best of our knowledge this aggregation method is the first to take the staleness of the arrived gradients, measured by the Euclidean distance between the stale model and the current global model, and the number of local epochs that have been performed, into account. Assuming general non-convex loss functions, we prove the convergence of the proposed method theoretically. Numerical results validate the effectiveness of the proposed AsyncFedED in terms of the convergence rate and model accuracy compared to the existing methods for three considered tasks.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) excel across tasks and specialized domains, scaling LLMs based on existing models has garnered significant attention, which faces the challenge of decreasing performance when combining disparate models. Various techniques have been proposed for the aggregation of pre-trained LLMs, including model merging, Mixture-of-Experts, and stacking. Despite their merits, a comprehensive comparison and synergistic application of them to a diverse model zoo is yet to be adequately addressed. In light of this research gap, this paper introduces Model-GLUE, a holistic LLM scaling guideline. First, our work starts with a benchmarking of existing LLM scaling techniques, especially selective merging, and variants of mixture. Utilizing the insights from the benchmark results, we formulate an strategy for the selection and aggregation of a heterogeneous model zoo characterizing different architectures and initialization. Our methodology involves the clustering of mergeable models and optimal merging strategy selection, and the integration of clusters through a model mixture. Finally, evidenced by our experiments on a diverse Llama-2-based model zoo, Model-GLUE shows an average performance enhancement of 5.61%, achieved without additional training. Codes are available at: https://github.com/Model-GLUE/Model-GLUE.

Time is an important feature in many applications involving events that occur synchronously and/or asynchronously. To effectively consume time information, recent studies have focused on designing new architectures. In this paper, we take an orthogonal but complementary approach by providing a model-agnostic vector representation for time, called Time2Vec, that can be easily imported into many existing and future architectures and improve their performances. We show on a range of models and problems that replacing the notion of time with its Time2Vec representation improves the performance of the final model.

Traditional fixed test sets fall short in evaluating open-ended capabilities of foundation models. To address this, we propose ONEBench(OpeN-Ended Benchmarking), a new testing paradigm that consolidates individual evaluation datasets into a unified, ever-expanding sample pool. ONEBench allows users to generate custom, open-ended evaluation benchmarks from this pool, corresponding to specific capabilities of interest. By aggregating samples across test sets, ONEBench enables the assessment of diverse capabilities beyond those covered by the original test sets, while mitigating overfitting and dataset bias. Most importantly, it frames model evaluation as a collective process of selecting and aggregating sample-level tests. The shift from task-specific benchmarks to ONEBench introduces two challenges: (1)heterogeneity and (2)incompleteness. Heterogeneity refers to the aggregation over diverse metrics, while incompleteness describes comparing models evaluated on different data subsets. To address these challenges, we explore algorithms to aggregate sparse measurements into reliable model scores. Our aggregation algorithm ensures identifiability(asymptotically recovering ground-truth scores) and rapid convergence, enabling accurate model ranking with less data. On homogenous datasets, we show our aggregation algorithm provides rankings that highly correlate with those produced by average scores. We also demonstrate robustness to ~95% of measurements missing, reducing evaluation cost by up to 20x with little-to-no change in model rankings. We introduce ONEBench-LLM for language models and ONEBench-LMM for vision-language models, unifying evaluations across these domains. Overall, we present a technique for open-ended evaluation, which can aggregate over incomplete, heterogeneous sample-level measurements to continually grow a benchmark alongside the rapidly developing foundation models.

Speech-based depression detection compresses features from short audio segments into one speaker-level decision, a step called temporal aggregation rarely studied on its own. Most benchmarks fix a single self-supervised encoder and a single hand-picked layer, so a reported gain may reflect the pipeline rather than the aggregation method itself. We introduce DEPOOL, a controlled benchmark that compares six aggregation architectures with six frozen speech backbones on an English and a Mandarin depression corpus, where each configuration learns which backbone layers matter rather than fixing one by hand. Across the resulting 72-configuration grid, a third of configurations collapse into predicting a single class for every speaker, a failure tied to the backbone as much as to the method, and the architecture that is most stable in a single-seed run becomes unreliable when training repeats across seeds. Robustness to backbone and seed, rather than average accuracy across a single pipeline, should be a first-class benchmarking criterion for temporal aggregation in clinical speech.

The development of state-of-the-art systems in different applied areas of machine learning (ML) is driven by benchmarks, which have shaped the paradigm of evaluating generalisation capabilities from multiple perspectives. Although the paradigm is shifting towards more fine-grained evaluation across diverse tasks, the delicate question of how to aggregate the performances has received particular interest in the community. In general, benchmarks follow the unspoken utilitarian principles, where the systems are ranked based on their mean average score over task-specific metrics. Such aggregation procedure has been viewed as a sub-optimal evaluation protocol, which may have created the illusion of progress. This paper proposes Vote'n'Rank, a framework for ranking systems in multi-task benchmarks under the principles of the social choice theory. We demonstrate that our approach can be efficiently utilised to draw new insights on benchmarking in several ML sub-fields and identify the best-performing systems in research and development case studies. The Vote'n'Rank's procedures are more robust than the mean average while being able to handle missing performance scores and determine conditions under which the system becomes the winner.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Today, a lot of research on language models is focused on large, general-purpose models. However, many NLP pipelines only require models with a well-defined, small set of capabilities. While large models are capable of performing the tasks of those smaller models, they are simply not fast enough to process large amounts of data or offer real-time responses. Furthermore, they often use unnecessarily large amounts of energy, leading to sustainability concerns and problems when deploying them on battery-powered devices. In our work, we show how to train small models for such efficiency-critical applications. As opposed to many off-the-shelf NLP pipelines, our models use modern training techniques such as distillation, and offer support for low-resource languages. We call our models TiME (Tiny Monolingual Encoders) and comprehensively evaluate them on a range of common NLP tasks, observing an improved trade-off between benchmark performance on one hand, and throughput, latency and energy consumption on the other. Along the way, we show that distilling monolingual models from multilingual teachers is possible, and likewise distilling models with absolute positional embeddings from teachers with relative positional embeddings.

Federated Learning (FL) typically involves a large-scale, distributed system with individual user devices/servers training models locally and then aggregating their model updates on a trusted central server. Existing systems for FL often use an always-on server for model aggregation, which can be inefficient in terms of resource utilization. They may also be inelastic in their resource management. This is particularly exacerbated when aggregating model updates at scale in a highly dynamic environment with varying numbers of heterogeneous user devices/servers. We present LIFL, a lightweight and elastic serverless cloud platform with fine-grained resource management for efficient FL aggregation at scale. LIFL is enhanced by a streamlined, event-driven serverless design that eliminates the individual heavy-weight message broker and replaces inefficient container-based sidecars with lightweight eBPF-based proxies. We leverage shared memory processing to achieve high-performance communication for hierarchical aggregation, which is commonly adopted to speed up FL aggregation at scale. We further introduce locality-aware placement in LIFL to maximize the benefits of shared memory processing. LIFL precisely scales and carefully reuses the resources for hierarchical aggregation to achieve the highest degree of parallelism while minimizing the aggregation time and resource consumption. Our experimental results show that LIFL achieves significant improvement in resource efficiency and aggregation speed for supporting FL at scale, compared to existing serverful and serverless FL systems.

Recent advances in learning rate (LR) scheduling have demonstrated the effectiveness of decay-free approaches that eliminate the traditional decay phase while maintaining competitive performance. Model merging techniques have emerged as particularly promising solutions in this domain. We present Warmup-Stable and Merge (WSM), a general framework that establishes a formal connection between learning rate decay and model merging. WSM provides a unified theoretical foundation for emulating various decay strategies-including cosine decay, linear decay and inverse square root decay-as principled model averaging schemes, while remaining fully compatible with diverse optimization methods. Through extensive experiments, we identify merge duration-the training window for checkpoint aggregation-as the most critical factor influencing model performance, surpassing the importance of both checkpoint interval and merge quantity. Our framework consistently outperforms the widely-adopted Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) approach across multiple benchmarks, achieving significant improvements of +3.5% on MATH, +2.9% on HumanEval, and +5.5% on MMLU-Pro. The performance advantages extend to supervised fine-tuning scenarios, highlighting WSM's potential for long-term model refinement.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Grasping the concept of time is a fundamental facet of human cognition, indispensable for truly comprehending the intricacies of the world. Previous studies typically focus on specific aspects of time, lacking a comprehensive temporal reasoning benchmark. To address this, we propose TimeBench, a comprehensive hierarchical temporal reasoning benchmark that covers a broad spectrum of temporal reasoning phenomena. TimeBench provides a thorough evaluation for investigating the temporal reasoning capabilities of large language models. We conduct extensive experiments on GPT-4, LLaMA2, and other popular LLMs under various settings. Our experimental results indicate a significant performance gap between the state-of-the-art LLMs and humans, highlighting that there is still a considerable distance to cover in temporal reasoning. Besides, LLMs exhibit capability discrepancies across different reasoning categories. Furthermore, we thoroughly analyze the impact of multiple aspects on temporal reasoning and emphasize the associated challenges. We aspire for TimeBench to serve as a comprehensive benchmark, fostering research in temporal reasoning. Resources are available at: https://github.com/zchuz/TimeBench

Large language models (LLMs) have shown nearly saturated performance on many natural language processing (NLP) tasks. As a result, it is natural for people to believe that LLMs have also mastered abilities such as time understanding and reasoning. However, research on the temporal sensitivity of LLMs has been insufficiently emphasized. To fill this gap, this paper constructs Multiple Sensitive Factors Time QA (MenatQA), which encompasses three temporal factors (scope factor, order factor, counterfactual factor) with total 2,853 samples for evaluating the time comprehension and reasoning abilities of LLMs. This paper tests current mainstream LLMs with different parameter sizes, ranging from billions to hundreds of billions. The results show most LLMs fall behind smaller temporal reasoning models with different degree on these factors. In specific, LLMs show a significant vulnerability to temporal biases and depend heavily on the temporal information provided in questions. Furthermore, this paper undertakes a preliminary investigation into potential improvement strategies by devising specific prompts and leveraging external tools. These approaches serve as valuable baselines or references for future research endeavors.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

We explore a key architectural aspect of deep convolutional neural networks: the pattern of internal skip connections used to aggregate outputs of earlier layers for consumption by deeper layers. Such aggregation is critical to facilitate training of very deep networks in an end-to-end manner. This is a primary reason for the widespread adoption of residual networks, which aggregate outputs via cumulative summation. While subsequent works investigate alternative aggregation operations (e.g. concatenation), we focus on an orthogonal question: which outputs to aggregate at a particular point in the network. We propose a new internal connection structure which aggregates only a sparse set of previous outputs at any given depth. Our experiments demonstrate this simple design change offers superior performance with fewer parameters and lower computational requirements. Moreover, we show that sparse aggregation allows networks to scale more robustly to 1000+ layers, thereby opening future avenues for training long-running visual processes.

Model efficiency is a critical aspect of developing and deploying machine learning models. Inference time and latency directly affect the user experience, and some applications have hard requirements. In addition to inference costs, model training also have direct financial and environmental impacts. Although there are numerous well-established metrics (cost indicators) for measuring model efficiency, researchers and practitioners often assume that these metrics are correlated with each other and report only few of them. In this paper, we thoroughly discuss common cost indicators, their advantages and disadvantages, and how they can contradict each other. We demonstrate how incomplete reporting of cost indicators can lead to partial conclusions and a blurred or incomplete picture of the practical considerations of different models. We further present suggestions to improve reporting of efficiency metrics.

Scaling test-time compute brings substantial performance gains for large language models (LLMs). By sampling multiple answers and heuristically aggregate their answers (e.g., either through majority voting or using verifiers to rank the answers), one can achieve consistent performance gains in math domains. In this paper, we propose a new way to leverage such multiple sample set. We train a compact LLM, called Sample Set Aggregator (SSA), that takes a concatenated sequence of multiple samples and output the final answer, optimizing it for the answer accuracy with reinforcement learning. Experiments on multiple reasoning datasets show that SSA outperforms other test-time scaling methods such as reward model-based re-ranking. Our approach also shows a promising generalization ability, across sample set sizes, base model families and scales, and tasks. By separating LLMs to generate answers and LLMs to analyze and aggregate sampled answers, our approach can work with the outputs from premier black box models easily and efficiently.

Training vision or language models on large datasets can take days, if not weeks. We show that averaging the weights of the k latest checkpoints, each collected at the end of an epoch, can speed up the training progression in terms of loss and accuracy by dozens of epochs, corresponding to time savings up to ~68 and ~30 GPU hours when training a ResNet50 on ImageNet and RoBERTa-Base model on WikiText-103, respectively. We also provide the code and model checkpoint trajectory to reproduce the results and facilitate research on reusing historical weights for faster convergence.

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 will be released to facilitate further research.

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning protocol in which a server needs to aggregate a set of models learned some independent clients to proceed the learning process. At present, model averaging, known as FedAvg, is one of the most widely adapted aggregation techniques. However, it is known to yield the models with degraded prediction accuracy and slow convergence. In this work, we find out that averaging models from different clients significantly diminishes the norm of the update vectors, resulting in slow learning rate and low prediction accuracy. Therefore, we propose a new aggregation method called FedNNNN. Instead of simple model averaging, we adjust the norm of the update vector and introduce momentum control techniques to improve the aggregation effectiveness of FL. As a demonstration, we evaluate FedNNNN on multiple datasets and scenarios with different neural network models, and observe up to 5.4% accuracy improvement.

Tabular data, a fundamental data format in machine learning, is predominantly utilized in competitions and real-world applications. The performance of tabular models--such as gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks--can vary significantly across datasets due to differences in feature distributions and task characteristics. Achieving top performance on each dataset often requires specialized expert knowledge. To address this variability, practitioners often aggregate the predictions of multiple models. However, conventional aggregation strategies typically rely on static combination rules and lack instance-level adaptability. In this work, we propose an in-context ensemble framework for tabular prediction that leverages large language models (LLMs) to perform dynamic, instance-specific integration of external model predictions. Without access to raw tabular features or semantic information, our method constructs a context around each test instance using its nearest neighbors and the predictions from a pool of external models. Within this enriched context, we introduce Chain of Tabular Thoughts (CoT^2), a prompting strategy that guides LLMs through multi-step, interpretable reasoning, making still further progress toward expert-level decision-making. Experimental results show that our method outperforms well-tuned baselines and standard ensemble techniques across a wide range of tabular datasets.

When using Large Language Models (LLMs) to support Knowledge Graph Engineering (KGE), one of the first indications when searching for an appropriate model is its size. According to the scaling laws, larger models typically show higher capabilities. However, in practice, resource costs are also an important factor and thus it makes sense to consider the ratio between model performance and costs. The LLM-KG-Bench framework enables the comparison of LLMs in the context of KGE tasks and assesses their capabilities of understanding and producing KGs and KG queries. Based on a dataset created in an LLM-KG-Bench run covering 26 open state-of-the-art LLMs, we explore the model size scaling laws specific to KGE tasks. In our analyses, we assess how benchmark scores evolve between different model size categories. Additionally, we inspect how the general score development of single models and families of models correlates to their size. Our analyses revealed that, with a few exceptions, the model size scaling laws generally also apply to the selected KGE tasks. However, in some cases, plateau or ceiling effects occurred, i.e., the task performance did not change much between a model and the next larger model. In these cases, smaller models could be considered to achieve high cost-effectiveness. Regarding models of the same family, sometimes larger models performed worse than smaller models of the same family. These effects occurred only locally. Hence it is advisable to additionally test the next smallest and largest model of the same family.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs, efficiently identifying the best model for downstream fine-tuning becomes increasingly challenging. In this work, we introduce TimeTic, a transferability estimation framework that recasts model selection as an in-context-learning problem: given observations on known (source) datasets, it predicts how a TSFM will perform after fine-tuning on a downstream (target) dataset. TimeTic flexibly organizes the observed model-data relationships as contextual information, allowing it to adapt seamlessly to various test-time scenarios. Leveraging the natural tabular structure formed by dataset meta-features, model characteristics, and fine-tuned performance, we employ tabular foundation models to serve as in-context learners. We further introduce a novel model characterization based on entropy evolution across model layers, capturing embedding-space distinctions and enabling TimeTic to generalize across arbitrary model sets. We establish a comprehensive benchmark for transferability estimation including 10 datasets, 10 foundation models, and 3 forecasting tasks. On this benchmark, TimeTic's estimation demonstrates strong alignment with actual fine-tuned performance for previously unseen datasets, achieving a mean rank correlation of approximately 0.6 and a 30% improvement compared to using zero-shot performance as the transferability score.

Recent developments in large language models have shown advantages in reallocating a notable share of computational resource from training time to inference time. However, the principles behind inference time scaling are not well understood. In this paper, we introduce an analytically tractable model of inference-time scaling: Bayesian linear regression with a reward-weighted sampler, where the reward is determined from a linear model, modeling LLM-as-a-judge scenario. We study this problem in the high-dimensional regime, where the deterministic equivalents dictate a closed-form expression for the posterior predictive mean and variance. We analyze the generalization error when training data are sampled from a teacher model. We draw k inference-time samples and select via softmax at a temperature applied to a quadratic reward. When the reward is not too different from the teacher, the generalization error decreases monotonically with increasing inference time samples k. However, the specific reward that optimizes inference-time selection generally differs from the teacher. In contrast, substantial reward misspecification induces a finite optimal k beyond which more sampling can increase the generalization error. For fixed k, there exists an optimal sampling temperature. We experimentally verify these facts in large language model inference with an additional large language model as a judge. In the "best-of-k" limit with the teacher as reward, we theoretically show that the generalization error decays as Θ(1/k^2) and determine the leading coefficient via extreme value theory. These formulas delineate domains where scaling inference-time computation is provably preferable to collecting more data. Finally, we demonstrate that when task difficulty increases, the previously mentioned advantage of inference-time compute degrades.

Inference-time techniques are emerging as highly effective tools to enhance large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, best practices for developing systems that combine these techniques remain underdeveloped due to our limited understanding of the utility of individual inference-time techniques and the interactions between them. Additionally, efficiently and automatically searching the space of model choices, inference-time techniques, and their compositions is challenging due to the large design space. To address these challenges, we introduce Archon, a modular framework for selecting, combining, and stacking layers of inference-time techniques to construct optimized LLM systems for target benchmarks. Rather than relying on a single LLM called once, we leverage a diverse set of LLMs and inference-time techniques, creating LLM systems greater than the sum of their parts. Archon defines an extensible design space, encompassing techniques such as generation ensembling, repeated sampling, ranking, fusion, critiquing, verification, and unit testing. It transforms the problem of building LLM systems into a hyperparameter optimization objective. Given the available LLMs, inference-time techniques, and compute budget, Archon utilizes hyperparameter search techniques to discover optimized architectures for target benchmark(s). We evaluate Archon architectures across a range of instruction-following, reasoning, and coding benchmarks, including MT-Bench, Arena-Hard-Auto, AlpacaEval 2.0, MixEval, MixEval Hard, MATH, and CodeContests. Archon architectures outperform frontier models, such as GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, on these benchmarks, achieving an average accuracy increase of 15.1 percentage points by using all available LLMs. We make our code and datasets available publicly on Github: https://github.com/ScalingIntelligence/Archon.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the choice of aggregation function. While summing over a node's neighbours can approximate any permutation-invariant function over discrete inputs, Cohen-Karlik et al. [2020] proved there are set-aggregation problems for which summing cannot generalise to unbounded inputs, proposing recurrent neural networks regularised towards permutation-invariance as a more expressive aggregator. We show that these results carry over to the graph domain: GNNs equipped with recurrent aggregators are competitive with state-of-the-art permutation-invariant aggregators, on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world problems. However, despite the benefits of recurrent aggregators, their O(V) depth makes them both difficult to parallelise and harder to train on large graphs. Inspired by the observation that a well-behaved aggregator for a GNN is a commutative monoid over its latent space, we propose a framework for constructing learnable, commutative, associative binary operators. And with this, we construct an aggregator of O(log V) depth, yielding exponential improvements for both parallelism and dependency length while achieving performance competitive with recurrent aggregators. Based on our empirical observations, our proposed learnable commutative monoid (LCM) aggregator represents a favourable tradeoff between efficient and expressive aggregators.

Small Vision-Language Models (VLMs) provide a computationally efficient alternative to larger models, at the cost of weaker generalization abilities and downstream task performance. These shortcomings could be addressed by test-time scaling techniques, but existing methods are typically computationally demanding, contradicting the resource-efficient design goals of small models. To address these limitations, we propose two novel and efficient test-time scaling strategies that leverage the model-internal features rather than external supervision: (i) Test-Time Augmentation (TTAug), which generates multiple augmented inputs and aggregates outputs at the token level without parameter updates, and (ii) Test-Time Adaptation (TTAdapt), which adapts model parameters during inference using consensus-based pseudolabels from TTAug. Through extensive experiments across nine benchmarks, we demonstrate consistent performance improvements while maintaining computational efficiency suitable for resource-constrained environments. The generality of our approach is demonstrated both within models at different scales and across different VLMs without additional tuning.

Automating machine learning has achieved remarkable technological developments in recent years, and building an automated machine learning pipeline is now an essential task. The model ensemble is the technique of combining multiple models to get a better and more robust model. However, existing automated machine learning tends to be simplistic in handling the model ensemble, where the ensemble strategy is fixed, such as stacked generalization. There have been many techniques on different ensemble methods, especially ensemble selection, and the fixed ensemble strategy limits the upper limit of the model's performance. In this article, we present a novel framework for automated machine learning. Our framework incorporates advances in dynamic ensemble selection, and to our best knowledge, our approach is the first in the field of AutoML to search and optimize ensemble strategies. In the comparison experiments, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art automated machine learning frameworks with the same CPU time in 42 classification datasets from the OpenML platform. Ablation experiments on our framework validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

A feature-based model explanation denotes how much each input feature contributes to a model's output for a given data point. As the number of proposed explanation functions grows, we lack quantitative evaluation criteria to help practitioners know when to use which explanation function. This paper proposes quantitative evaluation criteria for feature-based explanations: low sensitivity, high faithfulness, and low complexity. We devise a framework for aggregating explanation functions. We develop a procedure for learning an aggregate explanation function with lower complexity and then derive a new aggregate Shapley value explanation function that minimizes sensitivity.

We introduce TimeSeriesGym, a scalable benchmarking framework for evaluating Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents on time series machine learning engineering challenges. Existing benchmarks lack scalability, focus narrowly on model building in well-defined settings, and evaluate only a limited set of research artifacts (e.g., CSV submission files). To make AI agent benchmarking more relevant to the practice of machine learning engineering, our framework scales along two critical dimensions. First, recognizing that effective ML engineering requires a range of diverse skills, TimeSeriesGym incorporates challenges from diverse sources spanning multiple domains and tasks. We design challenges to evaluate both isolated capabilities (including data handling, understanding research repositories, and code translation) and their combinations, and rather than addressing each challenge independently, we develop tools that support designing multiple challenges at scale. Second, we implement evaluation mechanisms for multiple research artifacts, including submission files, code, and models, using both precise numeric measures and more flexible LLM-based evaluation approaches. This dual strategy balances objective assessment with contextual judgment. Although our initial focus is on time series applications, our framework can be readily extended to other data modalities, broadly enhancing the comprehensiveness and practical utility of agentic AI evaluation. We open-source our benchmarking framework to facilitate future research on the ML engineering capabilities of AI agents.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs), such as OpenAI-o1 and DeepSeek-R1, have demonstrated the effectiveness of test-time scaling, where extended reasoning processes substantially enhance model performance. Despite this, current models are constrained by limitations in handling long texts and reinforcement learning (RL) training efficiency. To address these issues, we propose a simple yet effective test-time scaling approach Multi-round Thinking. This method iteratively refines model reasoning by leveraging previous answers as prompts for subsequent rounds. Extensive experiments across multiple models, including QwQ-32B and DeepSeek-R1, consistently show performance improvements on various benchmarks such as AIME 2024, MATH-500, GPQA-diamond, and LiveCodeBench. For instance, the accuracy of QwQ-32B improved from 80.3% (Round 1) to 82.1% (Round 2) on the AIME 2024 dataset, while DeepSeek-R1 showed a similar increase from 79.7% to 82.0%. These results confirm that Multi-round Thinking is a broadly applicable, straightforward approach to achieving stable enhancements in model performance, underscoring its potential for future developments in test-time scaling techniques. The key prompt: {Original question prompt} The assistant's previous answer is: <answer> {last round answer} </answer>, and please re-answer.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

Reasoning about time is essential for Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand the world. Previous works focus on solving specific tasks, primarily on time-sensitive question answering. While these methods have proven effective, they cannot generalize to a wider spectrum of temporal reasoning tasks. Therefore, we propose a crucial question: Can we build a universal framework to handle a variety of temporal reasoning tasks? To that end, we systematically study 38 temporal reasoning tasks. Based on the observation that 19 tasks are directly related to mathematics, we first leverage the available mathematical dataset to set a solid foundation for temporal reasoning. However, the in-depth study indicates that focusing solely on mathematical enhancement falls short of addressing pure temporal reasoning tasks. To mitigate this limitation, we propose a simple but effective self-critic temporal optimization method to enhance the model's temporal reasoning capabilities without sacrificing general task abilities. Finally, we develop Timo, a model designed to excel in temporal reasoning at the 7B and 13B scales. Notably, Timo outperforms the counterpart LLMs by 10.0 and 7.6 in average accuracy scores and achieves the new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance of comparable size. Extensive experiments further validate our framework's effectiveness and its generalization across diverse temporal tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/zhaochen0110/Timo.

Modelling various spatio-temporal dependencies is the key to recognising human actions in skeleton sequences. Most existing methods excessively relied on the design of traversal rules or graph topologies to draw the dependencies of the dynamic joints, which is inadequate to reflect the relationships of the distant yet important joints. Furthermore, due to the locally adopted operations, the important long-range temporal information is therefore not well explored in existing works. To address this issue, in this work we propose LSTA-Net: a novel Long short-term Spatio-Temporal Aggregation Network, which can effectively capture the long/short-range dependencies in a spatio-temporal manner. We devise our model into a pure factorised architecture which can alternately perform spatial feature aggregation and temporal feature aggregation. To improve the feature aggregation effect, a channel-wise attention mechanism is also designed and employed. Extensive experiments were conducted on three public benchmark datasets, and the results suggest that our approach can capture both long-and-short range dependencies in the space and time domain, yielding higher results than other state-of-the-art methods. Code available at https://github.com/tailin1009/LSTA-Net.

It is commonly believed that scaling language models should commit a significant space or time cost, by increasing the parameters (parameter scaling) or output tokens (inference-time scaling). We introduce the third and more inference-efficient scaling paradigm: increasing the model's parallel computation during both training and inference time. We apply P diverse and learnable transformations to the input, execute forward passes of the model in parallel, and dynamically aggregate the P outputs. This method, namely parallel scaling (ParScale), scales parallel computation by reusing existing parameters and can be applied to any model structure, optimization procedure, data, or task. We theoretically propose a new scaling law and validate it through large-scale pre-training, which shows that a model with P parallel streams is similar to scaling the parameters by O(log P) while showing superior inference efficiency. For example, ParScale can use up to 22times less memory increase and 6times less latency increase compared to parameter scaling that achieves the same performance improvement. It can also recycle an off-the-shelf pre-trained model into a parallelly scaled one by post-training on a small amount of tokens, further reducing the training budget. The new scaling law we discovered potentially facilitates the deployment of more powerful models in low-resource scenarios, and provides an alternative perspective for the role of computation in machine learning.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

AIOps (Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations) solutions leverage the tremendous amount of data produced during the operation of large-scale systems and machine learning models to assist software practitioners in their system operations. Existing AIOps solutions usually maintain AIOps models against concept drift through periodical retraining, despite leaving a pile of discarded historical models that may perform well on specific future data. Other prior works propose dynamically selecting models for prediction tasks from a set of candidate models to optimize the model performance. However, there is no prior work in the AIOps area that assesses the use of model selection mechanisms on historical models to improve model performance or robustness. To fill the gap, we evaluate several model selection mechanisms by assessing their capabilities in selecting the optimal AIOps models that were built in the past to make predictions for the target data. We performed a case study on three large-scale public operation datasets: two trace datasets from the cloud computing platforms of Google and Alibaba, and one disk stats dataset from the BackBlaze cloud storage data center. We observe that the model selection mechnisms utilizing temporal adjacency tend to have a better performance and can prevail the periodical retraining approach. Our findings also highlight a performance gap between existing model selection mechnisms and the theoretical upper bound which may motivate future researchers and practitioners in investigating more efficient and effective model selection mechanisms that fit in the context of AIOps.

As large language models (LLMs) increasingly tackle complex reasoning tasks, test-time scaling has become critical for enhancing capabilities. However, in agentic scenarios with frequent tool calls, the traditional generation-length-based definition breaks down: tool latency decouples inference time from generation length. We propose Timely Machine, redefining test-time as wall-clock time, where models dynamically adjust strategies based on time budgets. We introduce Timely-Eval, a benchmark spanning high-frequency tool calls, low-frequency tool calls, and time-constrained reasoning. By varying tool latency, we find smaller models excel with fast feedback through more interactions, while larger models dominate high-latency settings via superior interaction quality. Moreover, existing models fail to adapt reasoning to time budgets. We propose Timely-RL to address this gap. After cold-start supervised fine-tuning, we use reinforcement learning to enhance temporal planning. Timely-RL improves time budget awareness and consistently boosts performance across Timely-Eval. We hope our work offers a new perspective on test-time scaling for the agentic era.

In federated learning (FL), weighted aggregation of local models is conducted to generate a global model, and the aggregation weights are normalized (the sum of weights is 1) and proportional to the local data sizes. In this paper, we revisit the weighted aggregation process and gain new insights into the training dynamics of FL. First, we find that the sum of weights can be smaller than 1, causing global weight shrinking effect (analogous to weight decay) and improving generalization. We explore how the optimal shrinking factor is affected by clients' data heterogeneity and local epochs. Second, we dive into the relative aggregation weights among clients to depict the clients' importance. We develop client coherence to study the learning dynamics and find a critical point that exists. Before entering the critical point, more coherent clients play more essential roles in generalization. Based on the above insights, we propose an effective method for Federated Learning with Learnable Aggregation Weights, named as FedLAW. Extensive experiments verify that our method can improve the generalization of the global model by a large margin on different datasets and models.

Model merging aims to combine multiple expert models into a more capable single model, offering benefits such as reduced storage and serving costs, improved generalization, and support for decentralized model development. Despite its promise, previous studies have primarily focused on merging a few small models. This leaves many unanswered questions about the effect of scaling model size and how it interplays with other key factors -- like the base model quality and number of expert models -- , to affect the merged model's performance. This work systematically evaluates the utility of model merging at scale, examining the impact of these different factors. We experiment with merging fully fine-tuned models using 4 popular merging methods -- Averaging, Task~Arithmetic, Dare, and TIES -- across model sizes ranging from 1B-64B parameters and merging up to 8 different expert models. We evaluate the merged models on both held-in tasks, i.e., the expert's training tasks, and zero-shot generalization to unseen held-out tasks. Our experiments provide several new insights about model merging at scale and the interplay between different factors. First, we find that merging is more effective when experts are created from strong base models, i.e., models with good zero-shot performance. Second, larger models facilitate easier merging. Third merging consistently improves generalization capabilities. Notably, when merging 8 large expert models, the merged models often generalize better compared to the multitask trained models. Fourth, we can better merge more expert models when working with larger models. Fifth, different merging methods behave very similarly at larger scales. Overall, our findings shed light on some interesting properties of model merging while also highlighting some limitations. We hope that this study will serve as a reference point on large-scale merging for upcoming research.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been shown to be effective models for different predictive tasks on graph-structured data. Recent work on their expressive power has focused on isomorphism tasks and countable feature spaces. We extend this theoretical framework to include continuous features - which occur regularly in real-world input domains and within the hidden layers of GNNs - and we demonstrate the requirement for multiple aggregation functions in this context. Accordingly, we propose Principal Neighbourhood Aggregation (PNA), a novel architecture combining multiple aggregators with degree-scalers (which generalize the sum aggregator). Finally, we compare the capacity of different models to capture and exploit the graph structure via a novel benchmark containing multiple tasks taken from classical graph theory, alongside existing benchmarks from real-world domains, all of which demonstrate the strength of our model. With this work, we hope to steer some of the GNN research towards new aggregation methods which we believe are essential in the search for powerful and robust models.

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for mathematical tasks, the broader impact of this approach on other tasks remains less clear. In this work, we investigate the benefits and limitations of scaling methods across nine state-of-the-art models and eight challenging tasks, including math and STEM reasoning, calendar planning, NP-hard problems, navigation, and spatial reasoning. We compare conventional models (e.g., GPT-4o) with models fine-tuned for inference-time scaling (e.g., o1) through evaluation protocols that involve repeated model calls, either independently or sequentially with feedback. These evaluations approximate lower and upper performance bounds and potential for future performance improvements for each model, whether through enhanced training or multi-model inference systems. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals that the advantages of inference-time scaling vary across tasks and diminish as problem complexity increases. In addition, simply using more tokens does not necessarily translate to higher accuracy in these challenging regimes. Results from multiple independent runs with conventional models using perfect verifiers show that, for some tasks, these models can achieve performance close to the average performance of today's most advanced reasoning models. However, for other tasks, a significant performance gap remains, even in very high scaling regimes. Encouragingly, all models demonstrate significant gains when inference is further scaled with perfect verifiers or strong feedback, suggesting ample potential for future improvements.

Time series models face significant challenges in scaling to handle large and complex datasets, akin to the scaling achieved by large language models (LLMs). The unique characteristics of time series data and the computational demands of model scaling necessitate innovative approaches. While researchers have explored various architectures such as Transformers, LSTMs, and GRUs to address these challenges, we propose a novel solution using RWKV-7, which incorporates meta-learning into its state update mechanism. By integrating RWKV-7's time mix and channel mix components into the transformer-based time series model Timer, we achieve a substantial performance improvement of approximately 1.13 to 43.3x and a 4.5x reduction in training time with 1/23 parameters, all while utilizing fewer parameters. Our code and model weights are publicly available for further research and development at https://github.com/Alic-Li/BlackGoose_Rimer.

Timeseries analytics is of great importance in many real-world applications. Recently, the Transformer model, popular in natural language processing, has been leveraged to learn high quality feature embeddings from timeseries, core to the performance of various timeseries analytics tasks. However, the quadratic time and space complexities limit Transformers' scalability, especially for long timeseries. To address these issues, we develop a timeseries analytics tool, RITA, which uses a novel attention mechanism, named group attention, to address this scalability issue. Group attention dynamically clusters the objects based on their similarity into a small number of groups and approximately computes the attention at the coarse group granularity. It thus significantly reduces the time and space complexity, yet provides a theoretical guarantee on the quality of the computed attention. The dynamic scheduler of RITA continuously adapts the number of groups and the batch size in the training process, ensuring group attention always uses the fewest groups needed to meet the approximation quality requirement. Extensive experiments on various timeseries datasets and analytics tasks demonstrate that RITA outperforms the state-of-the-art in accuracy and is significantly faster -- with speedups of up to 63X.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to the development of benchmarks that consider temporal dynamics, however, there remains a gap in understanding how well these models can generalize across temporal contexts due to the inherent dynamic nature of language and information. This paper introduces the concept of temporal generalization in LLMs, including bias in past and future generalizations. Then we introduce FreshBench, a new evaluation framework that employs fresh text and event prediction for assessing LLMs' temporal adaptability, ensuring the evaluation process free from data leakage and subjective bias. The experiment shows significant temporal biases and a decline in performance over time. Our findings reveal that powerful models, while initially superior, tend to decline more rapidly in future generalization. Additionally, powerful open-source models demonstrate better long-term adaptability compared to their closed-source counterparts. Our code is available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/FreshBench.

We present DYMAG, a graph neural network based on a novel form of message aggregation. Standard message-passing neural networks, which often aggregate local neighbors via mean-aggregation, can be regarded as convolving with a simple rectangular waveform which is non-zero only on 1-hop neighbors of every vertex. Here, we go beyond such local averaging. We will convolve the node features with more sophisticated waveforms generated using dynamics such as the heat equation, wave equation, and the Sprott model (an example of chaotic dynamics). Furthermore, we use snapshots of these dynamics at different time points to create waveforms at many effective scales. Theoretically, we show that these dynamic waveforms can capture salient information about the graph including connected components, connectivity, and cycle structures even with no features. Empirically, we test DYMAG on both real and synthetic benchmarks to establish that DYMAG outperforms baseline models on recovery of graph persistence, generating parameters of random graphs, as well as property prediction for proteins, molecules and materials. Our code is available at https://github.com/KrishnaswamyLab/DYMAG.

As enthusiasm for scaling computation (data and parameters) in the pretraining era gradually diminished, test-time scaling (TTS), also referred to as ``test-time computing'' has emerged as a prominent research focus. Recent studies demonstrate that TTS can further elicit the problem-solving capabilities of large language models (LLMs), enabling significant breakthroughs not only in specialized reasoning tasks, such as mathematics and coding, but also in general tasks like open-ended Q&A. However, despite the explosion of recent efforts in this area, there remains an urgent need for a comprehensive survey offering a systemic understanding. To fill this gap, we propose a unified, multidimensional framework structured along four core dimensions of TTS research: what to scale, how to scale, where to scale, and how well to scale. Building upon this taxonomy, we conduct an extensive review of methods, application scenarios, and assessment aspects, and present an organized decomposition that highlights the unique functional roles of individual techniques within the broader TTS landscape. From this analysis, we distill the major developmental trajectories of TTS to date and offer hands-on guidelines for practical deployment. Furthermore, we identify several open challenges and offer insights into promising future directions, including further scaling, clarifying the functional essence of techniques, generalizing to more tasks, and more attributions.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) is an important method for improving the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using additional computation during the inference phase. However, current studies do not systematically analyze how policy models, Process Reward Models (PRMs), and problem difficulty influence TTS. This lack of analysis limits the understanding and practical use of TTS methods. In this paper, we focus on two core questions: (1) What is the optimal approach to scale test-time computation across different policy models, PRMs, and problem difficulty levels? (2) To what extent can extended computation improve the performance of LLMs on complex tasks, and can smaller language models outperform larger ones through this approach? Through comprehensive experiments on MATH-500 and challenging AIME24 tasks, we have the following observations: (1) The compute-optimal TTS strategy is highly dependent on the choice of policy model, PRM, and problem difficulty. (2) With our compute-optimal TTS strategy, extremely small policy models can outperform larger models. For example, a 1B LLM can exceed a 405B LLM on MATH-500. Moreover, on both MATH-500 and AIME24, a 0.5B LLM outperforms GPT-4o, a 3B LLM surpasses a 405B LLM, and a 7B LLM beats o1 and DeepSeek-R1, while with higher inference efficiency. These findings show the significance of adapting TTS strategies to the specific characteristics of each task and model and indicate that TTS is a promising approach for enhancing the reasoning abilities of LLMs.

Recent physics foundation models claim general spatiotemporal forecasting ability, yet their evaluations often collapse performance into a single average score under a fixed training distribution. This makes it difficult to determine whether a model has learned generalizable physical dynamics or only performs well under particular settings. We construct a benchmark with 8 physical dynamics, 3 training-data mixtures, and 25 test regimes induced by dynamic-scale and initial-condition complexity shifts, covering in-distribution, distribution-shift, and out-of-distribution settings. We evaluate five physics foundation model architectures and four model variants per architecture (scratch and three pretrained sizes), resulting in 60,000 measurements. Our results show that current physics foundation models behave as conditional rather than universal generalists: their generality depends on the physical regime, temporal scale, initial-condition setting, pretraining, model size, and architecture. Improving the training data distribution only partially mitigates this limitation. Pretraining and scaling are also unable to reliably remove their ability biases. We argue that improving physics foundation models requires moving beyond scaling models or expanding data, toward learning mechanisms that better capture transferable physical knowledge across regimes, temporal scales, and distribution shifts.

Test-time scaling is a promising new approach to language modeling that uses extra test-time compute to improve performance. Recently, OpenAI's o1 model showed this capability but did not publicly share its methodology, leading to many replication efforts. We seek the simplest approach to achieve test-time scaling and strong reasoning performance. First, we curate a small dataset s1K of 1,000 questions paired with reasoning traces relying on three criteria we validate through ablations: difficulty, diversity, and quality. Second, we develop budget forcing to control test-time compute by forcefully terminating the model's thinking process or lengthening it by appending "Wait" multiple times to the model's generation when it tries to end. This can lead the model to double-check its answer, often fixing incorrect reasoning steps. After supervised finetuning the Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct language model on s1K and equipping it with budget forcing, our model s1 exceeds o1-preview on competition math questions by up to 27% (MATH and AIME24). Further, scaling s1 with budget forcing allows extrapolating beyond its performance without test-time intervention: from 50% to 57% on AIME24. Our model, data, and code are open-source at https://github.com/simplescaling/s1.

Benchmarks that closely reflect downstream application scenarios are essential for the streamlined adoption of new research in tabular machine learning (ML). In this work, we examine existing tabular benchmarks and find two common characteristics of industry-grade tabular data that are underrepresented in the datasets available to the academic community. First, tabular data often changes over time in real-world deployment scenarios. This impacts model performance and requires time-based train and test splits for correct model evaluation. Yet, existing academic tabular datasets often lack timestamp metadata to enable such evaluation. Second, a considerable portion of datasets in production settings stem from extensive data acquisition and feature engineering pipelines. For each specific dataset, this can have a different impact on the absolute and relative number of predictive, uninformative, and correlated features, which in turn can affect model selection. To fill the aforementioned gaps in academic benchmarks, we introduce TabReD -- a collection of eight industry-grade tabular datasets covering a wide range of domains from finance to food delivery services. We assess a large number of tabular ML models in the feature-rich, temporally-evolving data setting facilitated by TabReD. We demonstrate that evaluation on time-based data splits leads to different methods ranking, compared to evaluation on random splits more common in academic benchmarks. Furthermore, on the TabReD datasets, MLP-like architectures and GBDT show the best results, while more sophisticated DL models are yet to prove their effectiveness.

Time series, characterized by a sequence of data points organized in a discrete-time order, are ubiquitous in real-world scenarios. Unlike other data modalities, time series present unique challenges due to their intricate and dynamic nature, including the entanglement of nonlinear patterns and time-variant trends. Analyzing such data is of great significance in practical applications and has been extensively studied for centuries. Recent years have witnessed remarkable breakthroughs in the time series community, with techniques shifting from traditional statistical methods to contemporary deep learning models. In this paper, we delve into the design of deep time series models across various analysis tasks and review the existing literature from two perspectives: basic modules and model architectures. Further, we develop and release Time Series Library (TSLib) as a fair benchmark of deep time series models for diverse analysis tasks. TSLib implements 30 prominent models, covers 30 datasets from different domains, and supports five prevalent analysis tasks. Based on TSLib, we thoroughly evaluate 13 advanced deep time series models across diverse tasks. Empirical results indicate that models with specific structures are well-suited for distinct analytical tasks, providing insights for research and adoption of deep time series models. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/thuml/Time-Series-Library.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

User modeling is critical for developing personalized services in industry. A common way for user modeling is to learn user representations that can be distinguished by their interests or preferences. In this work, we focus on developing universal user representation model. The obtained universal representations are expected to contain rich information, and be applicable to various downstream applications without further modifications (e.g., user preference prediction and user profiling). Accordingly, we can be free from the heavy work of training task-specific models for every downstream task as in previous works. In specific, we propose Self-supervised User Modeling Network (SUMN) to encode behavior data into the universal representation. It includes two key components. The first one is a new learning objective, which guides the model to fully identify and preserve valuable user information under a self-supervised learning framework. The other one is a multi-hop aggregation layer, which benefits the model capacity in aggregating diverse behaviors. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that our approach can outperform state-of-the-art unsupervised representation methods, and even compete with supervised ones.

Multimodal Large Language Models which can answer complex questions on an image struggle to tell the time on analog clocks. This is probably due to the lack of images with clocks at different times in their training set. In this work we explore this issue with one of the latest MLLMs: GPT-4.1 to understand why MLLMs fail to tell the time and whether fine-tuning can solve the problem. The results show how models are making progress in reading the time on analog clocks. But have they really learned to do it, or have they only learned patterns in their training datasets? In this work we put the models to the test with different clocks to illustrate the limitations of MLLMs to abstract and generalize.

Foundation Models (FMs) serve as a general class for the development of artificial intelligence systems, offering broad potential for generalization across a spectrum of downstream tasks. Despite extensive research into self-supervised learning as the cornerstone of FMs, several outstanding issues persist in Graph Foundation Models that rely on graph self-supervised learning, namely: 1) Homogenization. The extent of generalization capability on downstream tasks remains unclear. 2) Scalability. It is unknown how effectively these models can scale to large datasets. 3) Efficiency. The training time and memory usage of these models require evaluation. 4) Training Stop Criteria. Determining the optimal stopping strategy for pre-training across multiple tasks to maximize performance on downstream tasks. To address these questions, we have constructed a rigorous benchmark that thoroughly analyzes and studies the generalization and scalability of self-supervised Graph Neural Network (GNN) models. Regarding generalization, we have implemented and compared the performance of various self-supervised GNN models, trained to generate node representations, across tasks such as node classification, link prediction, and node clustering. For scalability, we have compared the performance of various models after training using full-batch and mini-batch strategies. Additionally, we have assessed the training efficiency of these models by conducting experiments to test their GPU memory usage and throughput. Through these experiments, we aim to provide insights to motivate future research. The code for this benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/NYUSHCS/GraphFM.

Model merging has become one of the key technologies for enhancing the capabilities and efficiency of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, our understanding of the expected performance gains and principles when merging any two models remains limited. In this work, we introduce model kinship, the degree of similarity or relatedness between LLMs, analogous to biological evolution. With comprehensive empirical analysis, we find that there is a certain relationship between model kinship and the performance gains after model merging, which can help guide our selection of candidate models. Inspired by this, we propose a new model merging strategy: Top-k Greedy Merging with Model Kinship, which can yield better performance on benchmark datasets. Specifically, we discover that using model kinship as a criterion can assist us in continuously performing model merging, alleviating the degradation (local optima) in model evolution, whereas model kinship can serve as a guide to escape these traps. Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/ModelKinship.

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

By merging models, AI systems can combine the distinct strengths of separate language models, achieving a balance between multiple capabilities without requiring substantial retraining. However, the integration process can be intricate due to differences in training methods and fine-tuning, typically necessitating specialized knowledge and repeated refinement. This paper explores model merging techniques across a spectrum of complexity, examining where automated methods like evolutionary strategies stand compared to hyperparameter-driven approaches such as DARE, TIES-Merging and simpler methods like Model Soups. In addition, we introduce Differentiable Adaptive Merging (DAM), an efficient, adaptive merging approach as an alternative to evolutionary merging that optimizes model integration through scaling coefficients, minimizing computational demands. Our findings reveal that even simple averaging methods, like Model Soups, perform competitively when model similarity is high, underscoring each technique's unique strengths and limitations. We open-sourced DAM, including the implementation code and experiment pipeline, on GitHub: https://github.com/arcee-ai/DAM.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer the potential for automatic time series analysis and reporting, which is a critical task across many domains, spanning healthcare, finance, climate, energy, and many more. In this paper, we propose a framework for rigorously evaluating the capabilities of LLMs on time series understanding, encompassing both univariate and multivariate forms. We introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of time series features, a critical framework that delineates various characteristics inherent in time series data. Leveraging this taxonomy, we have systematically designed and synthesized a diverse dataset of time series, embodying the different outlined features. This dataset acts as a solid foundation for assessing the proficiency of LLMs in comprehending time series. Our experiments shed light on the strengths and limitations of state-of-the-art LLMs in time series understanding, revealing which features these models readily comprehend effectively and where they falter. In addition, we uncover the sensitivity of LLMs to factors including the formatting of the data, the position of points queried within a series and the overall time series length.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Combining different models is a widely used paradigm in machine learning applications. While the most common approach is to form an ensemble of models and average their individual predictions, this approach is often rendered infeasible by given resource constraints in terms of memory and computation, which grow linearly with the number of models. We present a layer-wise model fusion algorithm for neural networks that utilizes optimal transport to (soft-) align neurons across the models before averaging their associated parameters. We show that this can successfully yield "one-shot" knowledge transfer (i.e, without requiring any retraining) between neural networks trained on heterogeneous non-i.i.d. data. In both i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings , we illustrate that our approach significantly outperforms vanilla averaging, as well as how it can serve as an efficient replacement for the ensemble with moderate fine-tuning, for standard convolutional networks (like VGG11), residual networks (like ResNet18), and multi-layer perceptrons on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and MNIST. Finally, our approach also provides a principled way to combine the parameters of neural networks with different widths, and we explore its application for model compression. The code is available at the following link, https://github.com/sidak/otfusion.

Model fusion research aims to aggregate the knowledge of multiple models to enhance performance by combining their weights. In this work, we study the inverse, investigating whether and how can model fusion interfere and reduce unwanted knowledge. We delve into the effects of model fusion on the evolution of learned shortcuts, social biases, and memorization capabilities in fine-tuned language models. Through several experiments covering text classification and generation tasks, our analysis highlights that shared knowledge among models is usually enhanced during model fusion, while unshared knowledge is usually lost or forgotten. Based on this observation, we demonstrate the potential of model fusion as a debiasing tool and showcase its efficacy in addressing privacy concerns associated with language models.

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.

We show that time series foundation models scale: a single training recipe produces reliable forecast-quality improvements from 4M to 2.5B parameters. We release Toto 2.0, a family of five open-weights forecasting models trained under this recipe. The Toto 2.0 family sets a new state of the art on three forecasting benchmarks: BOOM, our observability benchmark; GIFT-Eval, the standard general-purpose benchmark; and the recent contamination-resistant TIME benchmark. This report describes our experimental results and details the design decisions behind Toto 2.0: its architecture and training recipe, training data, and the u-muP hyperparameter transfer pipeline. All five base checkpoints are released under Apache 2.0.

Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.

The advent of the transformer has sparked a quick growth in the size of language models, far outpacing hardware improvements. (Dense) transformers are expected to reach the trillion-parameter scale in the near future, for which training requires thousands or even tens of thousands of GPUs. We investigate the challenges of training at this scale and beyond on commercially available hardware. In particular, we analyse the shortest possible training time for different configurations of distributed training, leveraging empirical scaling laws for language models to estimate the optimal (critical) batch size. Contrary to popular belief, we find no evidence for a memory wall, and instead argue that the real limitation -- other than the cost -- lies in the training duration. In addition to this analysis, we introduce two new methods, layered gradient accumulation and modular pipeline parallelism, which together cut the shortest training time by half. The methods also reduce data movement, lowering the network requirement to a point where a fast InfiniBand connection is not necessary. This increased network efficiency also improve on the methods introduced with the ZeRO optimizer, reducing the memory usage to a tiny fraction of the available GPU memory.

User preferences follow a dynamic pattern over a day, e.g., at 8 am, a user might prefer to read news, while at 8 pm, they might prefer to watch movies. Time modeling aims to enable recommendation systems to perceive time changes to capture users' dynamic preferences over time, which is an important and challenging problem in recommendation systems. Especially, streaming recommendation systems in the industry, with only available samples of the current moment, present greater challenges for time modeling. There is still a lack of effective time modeling methods for streaming recommendation systems. In this paper, we propose an effective and universal method Interest Clock to perceive time information in recommendation systems. Interest Clock first encodes users' time-aware preferences into a clock (hour-level personalized features) and then uses Gaussian distribution to smooth and aggregate them into the final interest clock embedding according to the current time for the final prediction. By arming base models with Interest Clock, we conduct online A/B tests, obtaining +0.509% and +0.758% improvements on user active days and app duration respectively. Besides, the extended offline experiments show improvements as well. Interest Clock has been deployed on Douyin Music App.

Time series data in real-world applications such as healthcare, climate modeling, and finance are often irregular, multimodal, and messy, with varying sampling rates, asynchronous modalities, and pervasive missingness. However, existing benchmarks typically assume clean, regularly sampled, unimodal data, creating a significant gap between research and real-world deployment. We introduce Time-IMM, a dataset specifically designed to capture cause-driven irregularity in multimodal multivariate time series. Time-IMM represents nine distinct types of time series irregularity, categorized into trigger-based, constraint-based, and artifact-based mechanisms. Complementing the dataset, we introduce IMM-TSF, a benchmark library for forecasting on irregular multimodal time series, enabling asynchronous integration and realistic evaluation. IMM-TSF includes specialized fusion modules, including a timestamp-to-text fusion module and a multimodality fusion module, which support both recency-aware averaging and attention-based integration strategies. Empirical results demonstrate that explicitly modeling multimodality on irregular time series data leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance. Time-IMM and IMM-TSF provide a foundation for advancing time series analysis under real-world conditions. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-IMM, and the benchmark library can be accessed at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/IMM-TSF. Project page: https://blacksnail789521.github.io/time-imm-project-page/

Large Language Models (LLMs) have rapidly advanced, with Gemini-3-Pro setting a new performance milestone. In this work, we explore collective intelligence as an alternative to monolithic scaling, and demonstrate that open-source LLMs' collaboration can surpass Gemini-3-Pro. We first revisit LLM routing and aggregation at scale and identify three key bottlenecks: (1) current train-free routers are limited by a query-based paradigm focusing solely on textual similarity; (2) recent aggregation methods remain largely static, failing to select appropriate aggregators for different tasks;(3) the complementarity of routing and aggregation remains underutilized. To address these problems, we introduce JiSi, a novel framework designed to release the full potential of LLMs' collaboration through three innovations: (1) Query-Response Mixed Routing capturing both semantic information and problem difficulty; (2) Support-Set-based Aggregator Selection jointly evaluating the aggregation and domain capacity of aggregators; (3) Adaptive Routing-Aggregation Switch dynamically leveraging the advantages of routing and aggregation. Comprehensive experiments on nine benchmarks demonstrate that JiSi can surpass Gemini-3-Pro with only 47% costs by orchestrating ten open-source LLMs, while outperforming mainstream baselines. It suggests that collective intelligence represents a novel path towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

Training large neural networks is known to be time-consuming, with the learning duration taking days or even weeks. To address this problem, large-batch optimization was introduced. This approach demonstrated that scaling mini-batch sizes with appropriate learning rate adjustments can speed up the training process by orders of magnitude. While long training time was not typically a major issue for model-free deep offline RL algorithms, recently introduced Q-ensemble methods achieving state-of-the-art performance made this issue more relevant, notably extending the training duration. In this work, we demonstrate how this class of methods can benefit from large-batch optimization, which is commonly overlooked by the deep offline RL community. We show that scaling the mini-batch size and naively adjusting the learning rate allows for (1) a reduced size of the Q-ensemble, (2) stronger penalization of out-of-distribution actions, and (3) improved convergence time, effectively shortening training duration by 3-4x times on average.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

In this paper, we introduce analytic federated learning (AFL), a new training paradigm that brings analytical (i.e., closed-form) solutions to the federated learning (FL) community. Our AFL draws inspiration from analytic learning -- a gradient-free technique that trains neural networks with analytical solutions in one epoch. In the local client training stage, the AFL facilitates a one-epoch training, eliminating the necessity for multi-epoch updates. In the aggregation stage, we derive an absolute aggregation (AA) law. This AA law allows a single-round aggregation, removing the need for multiple aggregation rounds. More importantly, the AFL exhibits a weight-invariant property, meaning that regardless of how the full dataset is distributed among clients, the aggregated result remains identical. This could spawn various potentials, such as data heterogeneity invariance, client-number invariance, absolute convergence, and being hyperparameter-free (our AFL is the first hyperparameter-free method in FL history). We conduct experiments across various FL settings including extremely non-IID ones, and scenarios with a large number of clients (e.g., ge 1000). In all these settings, our AFL constantly performs competitively while existing FL techniques encounter various obstacles. Code is available at https://github.com/ZHUANGHP/Analytic-federated-learning

Scaling test time compute has shown remarkable success in improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). In this work, we conduct the first systematic exploration of applying test-time scaling methods to language agents and investigate the extent to which it improves their effectiveness. Specifically, we explore different test-time scaling strategies, including: (1) parallel sampling algorithms; (2) sequential revision strategies; (3) verifiers and merging methods; (4)strategies for diversifying rollouts.We carefully analyze and ablate the impact of different design strategies on applying test-time scaling on language agents, and have follow findings: 1. Scaling test time compute could improve the performance of agents. 2. Knowing when to reflect is important for agents. 3. Among different verification and result merging approaches, the list-wise method performs best. 4. Increasing diversified rollouts exerts a positive effect on the agent's task performance.