Daily Papers

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models for autonomous driving show promise but falter in unstructured corner case scenarios, largely due to a scarcity of targeted benchmarks. To address this, we introduce Impromptu VLA. Our core contribution is the Impromptu VLA Dataset: over 80,000 meticulously curated video clips, distilled from over 2M source clips sourced from 8 open-source large-scale datasets. This dataset is built upon our novel taxonomy of four challenging unstructured categories and features rich, planning-oriented question-answering annotations and action trajectories. Crucially, experiments demonstrate that VLAs trained with our dataset achieve substantial performance gains on established benchmarks--improving closed-loop NeuroNCAP scores and collision rates, and reaching near state-of-the-art L2 accuracy in open-loop nuScenes trajectory prediction. Furthermore, our Q&A suite serves as an effective diagnostic, revealing clear VLM improvements in perception, prediction, and planning. Our code, data and models are available at https://github.com/ahydchh/Impromptu-VLA.

Existing vehicle trajectory prediction models struggle with generalizability, prediction uncertainties, and handling complex interactions. It is often due to limitations like complex architectures customized for a specific dataset and inefficient multimodal handling. We propose Perceiver with Register queries (PerReg+), a novel trajectory prediction framework that introduces: (1) Dual-Level Representation Learning via Self-Distillation (SD) and Masked Reconstruction (MR), capturing global context and fine-grained details. Additionally, our approach of reconstructing segmentlevel trajectories and lane segments from masked inputs with query drop, enables effective use of contextual information and improves generalization; (2) Enhanced Multimodality using register-based queries and pretraining, eliminating the need for clustering and suppression; and (3) Adaptive Prompt Tuning during fine-tuning, freezing the main architecture and optimizing a small number of prompts for efficient adaptation. PerReg+ sets a new state-of-the-art performance on nuScenes [1], Argoverse 2 [2], and Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) [3]. Remarkable, our pretrained model reduces the error by 6.8% on smaller datasets, and multi-dataset training enhances generalization. In cross-domain tests, PerReg+ reduces B-FDE by 11.8% compared to its non-pretrained variant.

Predicting future trajectories for other road agents is an essential task for autonomous vehicles. Established trajectory prediction methods primarily use agent tracks generated by a detection and tracking system and HD map as inputs. In this work, we propose a novel method that also incorporates visual input from surround-view cameras, allowing the model to utilize visual cues such as human gazes and gestures, road conditions, vehicle turn signals, etc, which are typically hidden from the model in prior methods. Furthermore, we use textual descriptions generated by a Vision-Language Model (VLM) and refined by a Large Language Model (LLM) as supervision during training to guide the model on what to learn from the input data. Despite using these extra inputs, our method achieves a latency of 53 ms, making it feasible for real-time processing, which is significantly faster than that of previous single-agent prediction methods with similar performance. Our experiments show that both the visual inputs and the textual descriptions contribute to improvements in trajectory prediction performance, and our qualitative analysis highlights how the model is able to exploit these additional inputs. Lastly, in this work we create and release the nuScenes-Text dataset, which augments the established nuScenes dataset with rich textual annotations for every scene, demonstrating the positive impact of utilizing VLM on trajectory prediction. Our project page is at https://moonseokha.github.io/VisionTrap/

Trajectory prediction in autonomous driving relies on accurate representation of all relevant contexts of the driving scene, including traffic participants, road topology, traffic signs, as well as their semantic relations to each other. Despite increased attention to this issue, most approaches in trajectory prediction do not consider all of these factors sufficiently. We present SemanticFormer, an approach for predicting multimodal trajectories by reasoning over a semantic traffic scene graph using a hybrid approach. It utilizes high-level information in the form of meta-paths, i.e. trajectories on which an agent is allowed to drive from a knowledge graph which is then processed by a novel pipeline based on multiple attention mechanisms to predict accurate trajectories. SemanticFormer comprises a hierarchical heterogeneous graph encoder to capture spatio-temporal and relational information across agents as well as between agents and road elements. Further, it includes a predictor to fuse different encodings and decode trajectories with probabilities. Finally, a refinement module assesses permitted meta-paths of trajectories and speed profiles to obtain final predicted trajectories. Evaluation of the nuScenes benchmark demonstrates improved performance compared to several SOTA methods. In addition, we demonstrate that our knowledge graph can be easily added to two graph-based existing SOTA methods, namely VectorNet and Laformer, replacing their original homogeneous graphs. The evaluation results suggest that by adding our knowledge graph the performance of the original methods is enhanced by 5% and 4%, respectively.

Reliable multi-agent trajectory prediction is crucial for the safe planning and control of autonomous systems. Compared with single-agent cases, the major challenge in simultaneously processing multiple agents lies in modeling complex social interactions caused by various driving intentions and road conditions. Previous methods typically leverage graph-based message propagation or attention mechanism to encapsulate such interactions in the format of marginal probabilistic distributions. However, it is inherently sub-optimal. In this paper, we propose IPCC-TP, a novel relevance-aware module based on Incremental Pearson Correlation Coefficient to improve multi-agent interaction modeling. IPCC-TP learns pairwise joint Gaussian Distributions through the tightly-coupled estimation of the means and covariances according to interactive incremental movements. Our module can be conveniently embedded into existing multi-agent prediction methods to extend original motion distribution decoders. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and Argoverse 2 datasets demonstrate that IPCC-TP improves the performance of baselines by a large margin.

Trajectory prediction plays an important role in various applications, including autonomous driving, robotics, and scene understanding. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing compact neural networks to increase prediction precision on public datasets, typically employing a standardized input duration. However, a notable issue arises when these models are evaluated with varying observation lengths, leading to a significant performance drop, a phenomenon we term the Observation Length Shift. To address this issue, we introduce a general and effective framework, the FlexiLength Network (FLN), to enhance the robustness of existing trajectory prediction techniques against varying observation periods. Specifically, FLN integrates trajectory data with diverse observation lengths, incorporates FlexiLength Calibration (FLC) to acquire temporal invariant representations, and employs FlexiLength Adaptation (FLA) to further refine these representations for more accurate future trajectory predictions. Comprehensive experiments on multiple datasets, ie, ETH/UCY, nuScenes, and Argoverse 1, demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed FLN framework.

High-definition (HD) maps have played an integral role in the development of modern autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks, albeit with high associated labeling and maintenance costs. As a result, many recent works have proposed methods for estimating HD maps online from sensor data, enabling AVs to operate outside of previously-mapped regions. However, current online map estimation approaches are developed in isolation of their downstream tasks, complicating their integration in AV stacks. In particular, they do not produce uncertainty or confidence estimates. In this work, we extend multiple state-of-the-art online map estimation methods to additionally estimate uncertainty and show how this enables more tightly integrating online mapping with trajectory forecasting. In doing so, we find that incorporating uncertainty yields up to 50% faster training convergence and up to 15% better prediction performance on the real-world nuScenes driving dataset.

Vehicle trajectory prediction has increasingly relied on data-driven solutions, but their ability to scale to different data domains and the impact of larger dataset sizes on their generalization remain under-explored. While these questions can be studied by employing multiple datasets, it is challenging due to several discrepancies, e.g., in data formats, map resolution, and semantic annotation types. To address these challenges, we introduce UniTraj, a comprehensive framework that unifies various datasets, models, and evaluation criteria, presenting new opportunities for the vehicle trajectory prediction field. In particular, using UniTraj, we conduct extensive experiments and find that model performance significantly drops when transferred to other datasets. However, enlarging data size and diversity can substantially improve performance, leading to a new state-of-the-art result for the nuScenes dataset. We provide insights into dataset characteristics to explain these findings. The code can be found here: https://github.com/vita-epfl/UniTraj

Recent advances in autonomous driving are moving towards mapless approaches, where High-Definition (HD) maps are generated online directly from sensor data, reducing the need for expensive labeling and maintenance. However, the reliability of these online-generated maps remains uncertain. While incorporating map uncertainty into downstream trajectory prediction tasks has shown potential for performance improvements, current strategies provide limited insights into the specific scenarios where this uncertainty is beneficial. In this work, we first analyze the driving scenarios in which mapping uncertainty has the greatest positive impact on trajectory prediction and identify a critical, previously overlooked factor: the agent's kinematic state. Building on these insights, we propose a novel Proprioceptive Scenario Gating that adaptively integrates map uncertainty into trajectory prediction based on forecasts of the ego vehicle's future kinematics. This lightweight, self-supervised approach enhances the synergy between online mapping and trajectory prediction, providing interpretability around where uncertainty is advantageous and outperforming previous integration methods. Additionally, we introduce a Covariance-based Map Uncertainty approach that better aligns with map geometry, further improving trajectory prediction. Extensive ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of our approach, achieving up to 23.6% improvement in mapless trajectory prediction performance over the state-of-the-art method using the real-world nuScenes driving dataset. Our code, data, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Ethan-Zheng136/Map-Uncertainty-for-Trajectory-Prediction.

Predicting the future motion of dynamic agents is of paramount importance to ensuring safety and assessing risks in motion planning for autonomous robots. In this study, we propose a two-stage motion prediction method, called R-Pred, designed to effectively utilize both scene and interaction context using a cascade of the initial trajectory proposal and trajectory refinement networks. The initial trajectory proposal network produces M trajectory proposals corresponding to the M modes of the future trajectory distribution. The trajectory refinement network enhances each of the M proposals using 1) tube-query scene attention (TQSA) and 2) proposal-level interaction attention (PIA) mechanisms. TQSA uses tube-queries to aggregate local scene context features pooled from proximity around trajectory proposals of interest. PIA further enhances the trajectory proposals by modeling inter-agent interactions using a group of trajectory proposals selected by their distances from neighboring agents. Our experiments conducted on Argoverse and nuScenes datasets demonstrate that the proposed refinement network provides significant performance improvements compared to the single-stage baseline and that R-Pred achieves state-of-the-art performance in some categories of the benchmarks.

Most end-to-end autonomous driving methods rely on imitation learning from single expert demonstrations, often leading to conservative and homogeneous behaviors that limit generalization in complex real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose DIVER, an end-to-end driving framework that integrates reinforcement learning with diffusion-based generation to produce diverse and feasible trajectories. At the core of DIVER lies a reinforced diffusion-based generation mechanism. First, the model conditions on map elements and surrounding agents to generate multiple reference trajectories from a single ground-truth trajectory, alleviating the limitations of imitation learning that arise from relying solely on single expert demonstrations. Second, reinforcement learning is employed to guide the diffusion process, where reward-based supervision enforces safety and diversity constraints on the generated trajectories, thereby enhancing their practicality and generalization capability. Furthermore, to address the limitations of L2-based open-loop metrics in capturing trajectory diversity, we propose a novel Diversity metric to evaluate the diversity of multi-mode predictions.Extensive experiments on the closed-loop NAVSIM and Bench2Drive benchmarks, as well as the open-loop nuScenes dataset, demonstrate that DIVER significantly improves trajectory diversity, effectively addressing the mode collapse problem inherent in imitation learning.

Modern autonomous driving systems are typically divided into three main tasks: perception, prediction, and planning. The planning task involves predicting the trajectory of the ego vehicle based on inputs from both internal intention and the external environment, and manipulating the vehicle accordingly. Most existing works evaluate their performance on the nuScenes dataset using the L2 error and collision rate between the predicted trajectories and the ground truth. In this paper, we reevaluate these existing evaluation metrics and explore whether they accurately measure the superiority of different methods. Specifically, we design an MLP-based method that takes raw sensor data (e.g., past trajectory, velocity, etc.) as input and directly outputs the future trajectory of the ego vehicle, without using any perception or prediction information such as camera images or LiDAR. Our simple method achieves similar end-to-end planning performance on the nuScenes dataset with other perception-based methods, reducing the average L2 error by about 20%. Meanwhile, the perception-based methods have an advantage in terms of collision rate. We further conduct in-depth analysis and provide new insights into the factors that are critical for the success of the planning task on nuScenes dataset. Our observation also indicates that we need to rethink the current open-loop evaluation scheme of end-to-end autonomous driving in nuScenes. Codes are available at https://github.com/E2E-AD/AD-MLP.

Traffic elements such as traffic lights and road signs play a fundamental role in human driving decisions and should naturally influence end-to-end driving performance. However, existing end-to-end driving research predominantly focuses on dynamic road participants (e.g., vehicles and pedestrians), while the role of traffic elements remains largely unexplored. The community still lacks a systematic study quantifying their impact, largely because public datasets rarely provide structured traffic-element annotations and modern driving systems vary widely in architecture and training paradigm. In this work, we present the first systematic investigation of traffic element awareness for end-to-end autonomous driving. We construct a unified research infrastructure by augmenting multiple public driving datasets with comprehensive traffic-element annotations. To support diverse model families, we adopt a minimal and universal integration design that incorporates traffic-element signals into existing pipelines in a plug-and-play manner with negligible architectural modification. We evaluate this design across modern paradigms, including perception-prediction-planning pipelines, vision-language-action models (VLA), regression-based planners, diffusion-based policies, and trajectory-scoring frameworks, on nuScenes, NAVSIM-v1, NAVSIM-v2, and Bench2Drive. Across all paradigms and datasets, this simple integration consistently improves driving performance, demonstrating that traffic element awareness provides a robust and generalizable signal for end-to-end driving systems. Notably, on the challenging NAVSIM-v2 benchmark, our approach significantly improves state-of-the-art architectures and data pipelines, establishing a new state of the art.

Robust detection and tracking of objects is crucial for the deployment of autonomous vehicle technology. Image based benchmark datasets have driven development in computer vision tasks such as object detection, tracking and segmentation of agents in the environment. Most autonomous vehicles, however, carry a combination of cameras and range sensors such as lidar and radar. As machine learning based methods for detection and tracking become more prevalent, there is a need to train and evaluate such methods on datasets containing range sensor data along with images. In this work we present nuTonomy scenes (nuScenes), the first dataset to carry the full autonomous vehicle sensor suite: 6 cameras, 5 radars and 1 lidar, all with full 360 degree field of view. nuScenes comprises 1000 scenes, each 20s long and fully annotated with 3D bounding boxes for 23 classes and 8 attributes. It has 7x as many annotations and 100x as many images as the pioneering KITTI dataset. We define novel 3D detection and tracking metrics. We also provide careful dataset analysis as well as baselines for lidar and image based detection and tracking. Data, development kit and more information are available online.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Existing autonomous driving systems rely on onboard sensors (cameras, LiDAR, IMU, etc) for environmental perception. However, this paradigm is limited by the drive-time perception horizon and often fails under limited view scope, occlusion or extreme conditions such as darkness and rain. In contrast, human drivers are able to recall road structure even under poor visibility. To endow models with this ``recall" ability, we propose the spatial retrieval paradigm, introducing offline retrieved geographic images as an additional input. These images are easy to obtain from offline caches (e.g, Google Maps or stored autonomous driving datasets) without requiring additional sensors, making it a plug-and-play extension for existing AD tasks. For experiments, we first extend the nuScenes dataset with geographic images retrieved via Google Maps APIs and align the new data with ego-vehicle trajectories. We establish baselines across five core autonomous driving tasks: object detection, online mapping, occupancy prediction, end-to-end planning, and generative world modeling. Extensive experiments show that the extended modality could enhance the performance of certain tasks. We will open-source dataset curation code, data, and benchmarks for further study of this new autonomous driving paradigm.

Prior work in 3D object detection evaluates models using offline metrics like average precision since closed-loop online evaluation on the downstream driving task is costly. However, it is unclear how indicative offline results are of driving performance. In this work, we perform the first empirical evaluation measuring how predictive different detection metrics are of driving performance when detectors are integrated into a full self-driving stack. We conduct extensive experiments on urban driving in the CARLA simulator using 16 object detection models. We find that the nuScenes Detection Score has a higher correlation to driving performance than the widely used average precision metric. In addition, our results call for caution on the exclusive reliance on the emerging class of `planner-centric' metrics.

Generating realistic simulations is critical for autonomous system applications such as self-driving and human-robot interactions. However, driving simulators nowadays still have difficulty in generating controllable, diverse, and rule-compliant behaviors for road participants: Rule-based models cannot produce diverse behaviors and require careful tuning, whereas learning-based methods imitate the policy from data but are not designed to follow the rules explicitly. Besides, the real-world datasets are by nature "single-outcome", making the learning method hard to generate diverse behaviors. In this paper, we leverage Signal Temporal Logic (STL) and Diffusion Models to learn controllable, diverse, and rule-aware policy. We first calibrate the STL on the real-world data, then generate diverse synthetic data using trajectory optimization, and finally learn the rectified diffusion policy on the augmented dataset. We test on the NuScenes dataset and our approach can achieve the most diverse rule-compliant trajectories compared to other baselines, with a runtime 1/17X to the second-best approach. In the closed-loop testing, our approach reaches the highest diversity, rule satisfaction rate, and the least collision rate. Our method can generate varied characteristics conditional on different STL parameters in testing. A case study on human-robot encounter scenarios shows our approach can generate diverse and closed-to-oracle trajectories. The annotation tool, augmented dataset, and code are available at https://github.com/mengyuest/pSTL-diffusion-policy.

Driving World Models (DWMs) have become essential for autonomous driving by enabling future scene prediction. However, existing DWMs are limited to scene generation and fail to incorporate scene understanding, which involves interpreting and reasoning about the driving environment. In this paper, we present a unified Driving World Model named HERMES. We seamlessly integrate 3D scene understanding and future scene evolution (generation) through a unified framework in driving scenarios. Specifically, HERMES leverages a Bird's-Eye View (BEV) representation to consolidate multi-view spatial information while preserving geometric relationships and interactions. We also introduce world queries, which incorporate world knowledge into BEV features via causal attention in the Large Language Model (LLM), enabling contextual enrichment for understanding and generation tasks. We conduct comprehensive studies on nuScenes and OmniDrive-nuScenes datasets to validate the effectiveness of our method. HERMES achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing generation error by 32.4% and improving understanding metrics such as CIDEr by 8.0%. The model and code will be publicly released at https://github.com/LMD0311/HERMES.

Classical autonomous driving systems connect perception and prediction modules via hand-crafted bounding-box interfaces, limiting information flow and propagating errors to downstream tasks. Recent research aims to develop end-to-end models that jointly address perception and prediction; however, they often fail to fully exploit the synergy between appearance and motion cues, relying mainly on short-term visual features. We follow the idea of "looking backward to look forward", and propose MASAR, a novel fully differentiable framework for joint 3D detection and trajectory forecasting compatible with any transformer-based 3D detector. MASAR employs an object-centric spatio-temporal mechanism that jointly encodes appearance and motion features. By predicting past trajectories and refining them using guidance from appearance cues, MASAR captures long-term temporal dependencies that enhance future trajectory forecasting. Experiments conducted on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate MASAR's effectiveness, showing improvements of over 20% in minADE and minFDE while maintaining robust detection performance. Code and models are available at https://github.com/aminmed/MASAR.

End-to-end (E2E) driving has become a cornerstone of both industry deployment and academic research, offering a single learnable pipeline that maps multi-sensor inputs to actions while avoiding hand-engineered modules. However, the reliability of such pipelines strongly depends on how well they handle uncertainty: sensors are noisy, semantics can be ambiguous, and interaction with other road users is inherently stochastic. Uncertainty also appears in multiple forms: classification vs. localization, and, crucially, in both static map elements and dynamic agents. Existing E2E approaches model only static-map uncertainty, leaving planning vulnerable to overconfident and unreliable inputs. We present UniUncer, the first lightweight, unified uncertainty framework that jointly estimates and uses uncertainty for both static and dynamic scene elements inside an E2E planner. Concretely: (1) we convert deterministic heads to probabilistic Laplace regressors that output per-vertex location and scale for vectorized static and dynamic entities; (2) we introduce an uncertainty-fusion module that encodes these parameters and injects them into object/map queries to form uncertainty-aware queries; and (3) we design an uncertainty-aware gate that adaptively modulates reliance on historical inputs (ego status or temporal perception queries) based on current uncertainty levels. The design adds minimal overhead and drops throughput by only sim0.5 FPS while remaining plug-and-play for common E2E backbones. On nuScenes (open-loop), UniUncer reduces average L2 trajectory error by 7\%. On NavsimV2 (pseudo closed-loop), it improves overall EPDMS by 10.8\% and notable stage two gains in challenging, interaction-heavy scenes. Ablations confirm that dynamic-agent uncertainty and the uncertainty-aware gate are both necessary.

Current perception models in autonomous driving have become notorious for greatly relying on a mass of annotated data to cover unseen cases and address the long-tail problem. On the other hand, learning from unlabeled large-scale collected data and incrementally self-training powerful recognition models have received increasing attention and may become the solutions of next-generation industry-level powerful and robust perception models in autonomous driving. However, the research community generally suffered from data inadequacy of those essential real-world scene data, which hampers the future exploration of fully/semi/self-supervised methods for 3D perception. In this paper, we introduce the ONCE (One millioN sCenEs) dataset for 3D object detection in the autonomous driving scenario. The ONCE dataset consists of 1 million LiDAR scenes and 7 million corresponding camera images. The data is selected from 144 driving hours, which is 20x longer than the largest 3D autonomous driving dataset available (e.g. nuScenes and Waymo), and it is collected across a range of different areas, periods and weather conditions. To facilitate future research on exploiting unlabeled data for 3D detection, we additionally provide a benchmark in which we reproduce and evaluate a variety of self-supervised and semi-supervised methods on the ONCE dataset. We conduct extensive analyses on those methods and provide valuable observations on their performance related to the scale of used data. Data, code, and more information are available at https://once-for-auto-driving.github.io/index.html.

The MS-GLMB filter offers a robust framework for tracking multiple objects through the use of multi-sensor data. Building on this, the MV-GLMB and MV-GLMB-AB filters enhance the MS-GLMB capabilities by employing cameras for 3D multi-sensor multi-object tracking, effectively addressing occlusions. However, both filters depend on overlapping fields of view from the cameras to combine complementary information. In this paper, we introduce an improved approach that integrates an additional sensor, such as LiDAR, into the MS-GLMB framework for 3D multi-object tracking. Specifically, we present a new LiDAR measurement model, along with a multi-camera and LiDAR multi-object measurement model. Our experimental results demonstrate a significant improvement in tracking performance compared to existing MS-GLMB-based methods. Importantly, our method eliminates the need for overlapping fields of view, broadening the applicability of the MS-GLMB filter. Our source code for nuScenes dataset is available at https://github.com/linh-gist/ms-glmb-nuScenes.

High-fidelity closed-loop simulation for autonomous driving increasingly relies on dense multi-view 3D reconstruction. While recent feed-forward geometric foundation models have revolutionized per-scene optimization, applying them to continuous, long-horizon driving sequences is computationally intractable due to GPU memory limits and the quadratic complexity of global attention. Existing scaling strategies are fundamentally limited, as causal streaming suffers from compounding scale drift and trajectory deviation, while rigid "chunk-then-align" heuristics fragment global context and produce trajectory discontinuities. To address these limitations, we introduce Drive3R, a block-wise streaming geometric foundation model. Its block-wise causal attention resolves the scalability bottleneck of fully bidirectional attention while avoiding the loss of local future context in purely causal streaming. Its confidence-aware re-anchoring further mitigates long-range drift by detecting unreliable streaming states, re-initializing the KV cache, and stitching refreshed segments through SE(3) alignment. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Drive3R establishes a new state-of-the-art on nuScenes, KITTI, and Waymo. Specifically, on nuScenes, it improves over the recent DVGT-2 baseline from 0.1806 to 0.1081 in AbsRel, from 0.6750 to 0.5344 in point-cloud Accuracy, and from 1.5812 to 0.9092 in ATE.

Understanding world dynamics is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Recent methods attempt to achieve this by learning a 3D occupancy world model that forecasts future surrounding scenes based on current observation. However, 3D occupancy labels are still required to produce promising results. Considering the high annotation cost for 3D outdoor scenes, we propose a semi-supervised vision-centric 3D occupancy world model, PreWorld, to leverage the potential of 2D labels through a novel two-stage training paradigm: the self-supervised pre-training stage and the fully-supervised fine-tuning stage. Specifically, during the pre-training stage, we utilize an attribute projection head to generate different attribute fields of a scene (e.g., RGB, density, semantic), thus enabling temporal supervision from 2D labels via volume rendering techniques. Furthermore, we introduce a simple yet effective state-conditioned forecasting module to recursively forecast future occupancy and ego trajectory in a direct manner. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset validate the effectiveness and scalability of our method, and demonstrate that PreWorld achieves competitive performance across 3D occupancy prediction, 4D occupancy forecasting and motion planning tasks.

Trajectory prediction is fundamental in computer vision and autonomous driving, particularly for understanding pedestrian behavior and enabling proactive decision-making. Existing approaches in this field often assume precise and complete observational data, neglecting the challenges associated with out-of-view objects and the noise inherent in sensor data due to limited camera range, physical obstructions, and the absence of ground truth for denoised sensor data. Such oversights are critical safety concerns, as they can result in missing essential, non-visible objects. To bridge this gap, we present a novel method for out-of-sight trajectory prediction that leverages a vision-positioning technique. Our approach denoises noisy sensor observations in an unsupervised manner and precisely maps sensor-based trajectories of out-of-sight objects into visual trajectories. This method has demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in out-of-sight noisy sensor trajectory denoising and prediction on the Vi-Fi and JRDB datasets. By enhancing trajectory prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges of out-of-sight objects, our work significantly contributes to improving the safety and reliability of autonomous driving in complex environments. Our work represents the first initiative towards Out-Of-Sight Trajectory prediction (OOSTraj), setting a new benchmark for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/Hai-chao-Zhang/OOSTraj.

There are five types of trajectory prediction tasks: deterministic, stochastic, domain adaptation, momentary observation, and few-shot. These associated tasks are defined by various factors, such as the length of input paths, data split and pre-processing methods. Interestingly, even though they commonly take sequential coordinates of observations as input and infer future paths in the same coordinates as output, designing specialized architectures for each task is still necessary. For the other task, generality issues can lead to sub-optimal performances. In this paper, we propose SingularTrajectory, a diffusion-based universal trajectory prediction framework to reduce the performance gap across the five tasks. The core of SingularTrajectory is to unify a variety of human dynamics representations on the associated tasks. To do this, we first build a Singular space to project all types of motion patterns from each task into one embedding space. We next propose an adaptive anchor working in the Singular space. Unlike traditional fixed anchor methods that sometimes yield unacceptable paths, our adaptive anchor enables correct anchors, which are put into a wrong location, based on a traversability map. Finally, we adopt a diffusion-based predictor to further enhance the prototype paths using a cascaded denoising process. Our unified framework ensures the generality across various benchmark settings such as input modality, and trajectory lengths. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that SingularTrajectory substantially outperforms existing models, highlighting its effectiveness in estimating general dynamics of human movements. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/SingularTrajectory .

Multi-object tracking is a cornerstone capability of any robotic system. The quality of tracking is largely dependent on the quality of the detector used. In many applications, such as autonomous vehicles, it is preferable to over-detect objects to avoid catastrophic outcomes due to missed detections. As a result, current state-of-the-art 3D detectors produce high rates of false-positives to ensure a low number of false-negatives. This can negatively affect tracking by making data association and track lifecycle management more challenging. Additionally, occasional false-negative detections due to difficult scenarios like occlusions can harm tracking performance. To address these issues in a unified framework, we propose to learn shape and spatio-temporal affinities between tracks and detections in consecutive frames. Our affinity provides a probabilistic matching that leads to robust data association, track lifecycle management, false-positive elimination, false-negative propagation, and sequential track confidence refinement. Though past 3D MOT approaches address a subset of components in this problem domain, we offer the first self-contained framework that addresses all these aspects of the 3D MOT problem. We quantitatively evaluate our method on the nuScenes tracking benchmark where we achieve 1st place amongst LiDAR-only trackers using CenterPoint detections. Our method estimates accurate and precise tracks, while decreasing the overall number of false-positive and false-negative tracks and increasing the number of true-positive tracks. We analyze our performance with 5 metrics, giving a comprehensive overview of our approach to indicate how our tracking framework may impact the ultimate goal of an autonomous mobile agent. We also present ablative experiments and qualitative results that demonstrate our framework's capabilities in complex scenarios.

Capturing high-dimensional social interactions and feasible futures is essential for predicting trajectories. To address this complex nature, several attempts have been devoted to reducing the dimensionality of the output variables via parametric curve fitting such as the B\'ezier curve and B-spline function. However, these functions, which originate in computer graphics fields, are not suitable to account for socially acceptable human dynamics. In this paper, we present EigenTrajectory (ET), a trajectory prediction approach that uses a novel trajectory descriptor to form a compact space, known here as ET space, in place of Euclidean space, for representing pedestrian movements. We first reduce the complexity of the trajectory descriptor via a low-rank approximation. We transform the pedestrians' history paths into our ET space represented by spatio-temporal principle components, and feed them into off-the-shelf trajectory forecasting models. The inputs and outputs of the models as well as social interactions are all gathered and aggregated in the corresponding ET space. Lastly, we propose a trajectory anchor-based refinement method to cover all possible futures in the proposed ET space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EigenTrajectory predictor can significantly improve both the prediction accuracy and reliability of existing trajectory forecasting models on public benchmarks, indicating that the proposed descriptor is suited to represent pedestrian behaviors. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/EigenTrajectory .

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have sparked growing interest in integrating language-driven techniques into trajectory prediction. By leveraging their semantic and reasoning capabilities, LLMs are reshaping how autonomous systems perceive, model, and predict trajectories. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of this emerging field, categorizing recent work into five directions: (1) Trajectory prediction via language modeling paradigms, (2) Direct trajectory prediction with pretrained language models, (3) Language-guided scene understanding for trajectory prediction, (4) Language-driven data generation for trajectory prediction, (5) Language-based reasoning and interpretability for trajectory prediction. For each, we analyze representative methods, highlight core design choices, and identify open challenges. This survey bridges natural language processing and trajectory prediction, offering a unified perspective on how language can enrich trajectory prediction.

We propose DOME, a diffusion-based world model that predicts future occupancy frames based on past occupancy observations. The ability of this world model to capture the evolution of the environment is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Compared to 2D video-based world models, the occupancy world model utilizes a native 3D representation, which features easily obtainable annotations and is modality-agnostic. This flexibility has the potential to facilitate the development of more advanced world models. Existing occupancy world models either suffer from detail loss due to discrete tokenization or rely on simplistic diffusion architectures, leading to inefficiencies and difficulties in predicting future occupancy with controllability. Our DOME exhibits two key features:(1) High-Fidelity and Long-Duration Generation. We adopt a spatial-temporal diffusion transformer to predict future occupancy frames based on historical context. This architecture efficiently captures spatial-temporal information, enabling high-fidelity details and the ability to generate predictions over long durations. (2)Fine-grained Controllability. We address the challenge of controllability in predictions by introducing a trajectory resampling method, which significantly enhances the model's ability to generate controlled predictions. Extensive experiments on the widely used nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses existing baselines in both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, establishing a new state-of-the-art performance on nuScenes. Specifically, our approach surpasses the baseline by 10.5% in mIoU and 21.2% in IoU for occupancy reconstruction and by 36.0% in mIoU and 24.6% in IoU for 4D occupancy forecasting.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

The prediction of ship trajectories is a growing field of study in artificial intelligence. Traditional methods rely on the use of LSTM, GRU networks, and even Transformer architectures for the prediction of spatio-temporal series. This study proposes a viable alternative for predicting these trajectories using only GNSS positions. It considers this spatio-temporal problem as a natural language processing problem. The latitude/longitude coordinates of AIS messages are transformed into cell identifiers using the H3 index. Thanks to the pseudo-octal representation, it becomes easier for language models to learn the spatial hierarchy of the H3 index. The method is compared with a classical Kalman filter, widely used in the maritime domain, and introduces the Fr\'echet distance as the main evaluation metric. We show that it is possible to predict ship trajectories quite precisely up to 8 hours with 30 minutes of context. We demonstrate that this alternative works well enough to predict trajectories worldwide.

The field of trajectory forecasting has grown significantly in recent years, partially owing to the release of numerous large-scale, real-world human trajectory datasets for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pedestrian motion tracking. While such datasets have been a boon for the community, they each use custom and unique data formats and APIs, making it cumbersome for researchers to train and evaluate methods across multiple datasets. To remedy this, we present trajdata: a unified interface to multiple human trajectory datasets. At its core, trajdata provides a simple, uniform, and efficient representation and API for trajectory and map data. As a demonstration of its capabilities, in this work we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of existing trajectory datasets, providing users with a rich understanding of the data underpinning much of current pedestrian and AV motion forecasting research, and proposing suggestions for future datasets from these insights. trajdata is permissively licensed (Apache 2.0) and can be accessed online at https://github.com/NVlabs/trajdata

Next Location Prediction is a fundamental task in the study of human mobility, with wide-ranging applications in transportation planning, urban governance, and epidemic forecasting. In practice, when humans attempt to predict the next location in a trajectory, they often visualize the trajectory on a map and reason based on road connectivity and movement trends. However, the vast majority of existing next-location prediction models do not reason over maps in the way that humans do. Fortunately, the recent development of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has demonstrated strong capabilities in visual perception and even visual reasoning. This opens up a new possibility: by rendering both the road network and trajectory onto an image and leveraging the reasoning abilities of VLMs, we can enable models to perform trajectory inference in a human-like manner. To explore this idea, we first propose a method called Vision-Guided Location Search (VGLS), which evaluates whether a general-purpose VLM is capable of trajectory-based reasoning without modifying any of its internal parameters. Based on insights from the VGLS results, we further propose our main approach: VLMLocPredictor, which is composed of two stages: In the first stage, we design two Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) tasks that help the VLM understand road network and trajectory structures and acquire basic reasoning ability on such visual inputs. In the second stage, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Visual Map Feedback, enabling the model to self-improve its next-location prediction ability through interaction with the environment. Experiments conducted on datasets from four different cities show that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and exhibits superior cross-city generalization compared to other LLM-based approaches.

User profiling and region analysis are two tasks of significant commercial value. However, in practical applications, modeling different features typically involves four main steps: data preparation, data processing, model establishment, evaluation, and optimization. This process is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Repeating this workflow for each feature results in abundant development time for tasks and a reduced overall volume of task development. Indeed, human mobility data contains a wealth of information. Several successful cases suggest that conducting in-depth analysis of population movement data could potentially yield meaningful profiles about users and areas. Nonetheless, most related works have not thoroughly utilized the semantic information within human mobility data and trained on a fixed number of the regions. To tap into the rich information within population movement, based on the perspective that Regions Are Who walk them, we propose a large spatiotemporal model based on trajectories (RAW). It possesses the following characteristics: 1) Tailored for trajectory data, introducing a GPT-like structure with a parameter count of up to 1B; 2) Introducing a spatiotemporal fine-tuning module, interpreting trajectories as collection of users to derive arbitrary region embedding. This framework allows rapid task development based on the large spatiotemporal model. We conducted extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our proposed large spatiotemporal model. It's evident that our proposed method, relying solely on human mobility data without additional features, exhibits a certain level of relevance in user profiling and region analysis. Moreover, our model showcases promising predictive capabilities in trajectory generation tasks based on the current state, offering the potential for further innovative work utilizing this large spatiotemporal model.

Online high-definition (HD) map construction is an essential part of a safe and robust end-to-end autonomous driving (AD) pipeline. Onboard camera-based approaches suffer from limited depth perception and degraded accuracy due to occlusion. In this work, we propose SatMap, an online vectorized HD map estimation method that integrates satellite maps with multi-view camera observations and directly predicts a vectorized HD map for downstream prediction and planning modules. Our method leverages lane-level semantics and texture from satellite imagery captured from a Bird's Eye View (BEV) perspective as a global prior, effectively mitigating depth ambiguity and occlusion. In our experiments on the nuScenes dataset, SatMap achieves 34.8% mAP performance improvement over the camera-only baseline and 8.5% mAP improvement over the camera-LiDAR fusion baseline. Moreover, we evaluate our model in long-range and adverse weather conditions to demonstrate the advantages of using a satellite prior map. Source code will be available at https://iv.ee.hm.edu/satmap/.

Combining motion prediction and motion planning offers a promising framework for enhancing interactions between automated vehicles and other traffic participants. However, this introduces challenges in conditioning predictions on navigation goals and ensuring stable, kinematically feasible trajectories. Addressing the former challenge, this paper investigates the extension of attention-based motion prediction models with navigation information. By integrating the ego vehicle's intended route and goal pose into the model architecture, we bridge the gap between multi-agent motion prediction and goal-based motion planning. We propose and evaluate several architectural navigation integration strategies to our model on the nuPlan dataset. Our results demonstrate the potential of prediction-driven motion planning, highlighting how navigation information can enhance both prediction and planning tasks. Our implementation is at: https://github.com/KIT-MRT/future-motion.

We consider the problem of predicting the future trajectory of scene agents from egocentric views obtained from a moving platform. This problem is important in a variety of domains, particularly for autonomous systems making reactive or strategic decisions in navigation. In an attempt to address this problem, we introduce TITAN (Trajectory Inference using Targeted Action priors Network), a new model that incorporates prior positions, actions, and context to forecast future trajectory of agents and future ego-motion. In the absence of an appropriate dataset for this task, we created the TITAN dataset that consists of 700 labeled video-clips (with odometry) captured from a moving vehicle on highly interactive urban traffic scenes in Tokyo. Our dataset includes 50 labels including vehicle states and actions, pedestrian age groups, and targeted pedestrian action attributes that are organized hierarchically corresponding to atomic, simple/complex-contextual, transportive, and communicative actions. To evaluate our model, we conducted extensive experiments on the TITAN dataset, revealing significant performance improvement against baselines and state-of-the-art algorithms. We also report promising results from our Agent Importance Mechanism (AIM), a module which provides insight into assessment of perceived risk by calculating the relative influence of each agent on the future ego-trajectory. The dataset is available at https://usa.honda-ri.com/titan

Accumulating substantial volumes of real-world driving data proves pivotal in the realm of trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving. Given the heavy reliance of current trajectory forecasting models on data-driven methodologies, we aim to tackle the challenge of learning general trajectory forecasting representations under limited data availability. We propose a pipeline-level solution to mitigate the issue of data scarcity in trajectory forecasting. The solution is composed of two parts: firstly, we adopt HD map augmentation and trajectory synthesis for generating driving data, and then we learn representations by pre-training on them. Specifically, we apply vector transformations to reshape the maps, and then employ a rule-based model to generate trajectories on both original and augmented scenes; thus enlarging the driving data without collecting additional real ones. To foster the learning of general representations within this augmented dataset, we comprehensively explore the different pre-training strategies, including extending the concept of a Masked AutoEncoder (MAE) for trajectory forecasting. Without bells and whistles, our proposed pipeline-level solution is general, simple, yet effective: we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our data expansion and pre-training strategies, which outperform the baseline prediction model by large margins, e.g. 5.04%, 3.84% and 8.30% in terms of MR_6, minADE_6 and minFDE_6. The pre-training dataset and the codes for pre-training and fine-tuning are released at https://github.com/yhli123/Pretraining_on_Synthetic_Driving_Data_for_Trajectory_Prediction.

A reliable and accurate 3D tracking framework is essential for predicting future locations of surrounding objects and planning the observer's actions in numerous applications such as autonomous driving. We propose a framework that can effectively associate moving objects over time and estimate their full 3D bounding box information from a sequence of 2D images captured on a moving platform. The object association leverages quasi-dense similarity learning to identify objects in various poses and viewpoints with appearance cues only. After initial 2D association, we further utilize 3D bounding boxes depth-ordering heuristics for robust instance association and motion-based 3D trajectory prediction for re-identification of occluded vehicles. In the end, an LSTM-based object velocity learning module aggregates the long-term trajectory information for more accurate motion extrapolation. Experiments on our proposed simulation data and real-world benchmarks, including KITTI, nuScenes, and Waymo datasets, show that our tracking framework offers robust object association and tracking on urban-driving scenarios. On the Waymo Open benchmark, we establish the first camera-only baseline in the 3D tracking and 3D detection challenges. Our quasi-dense 3D tracking pipeline achieves impressive improvements on the nuScenes 3D tracking benchmark with near five times tracking accuracy of the best vision-only submission among all published methods. Our code, data and trained models are available at https://github.com/SysCV/qd-3dt.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

End-to-end (E2E) autonomous driving presents a promising approach for translating perceptual inputs directly into driving actions. However, prohibitive annotation costs and temporal data quality degradation hinder long-term real-world deployment. While combining imitation learning (IL) and reinforcement learning (RL) is a common strategy for policy improvement, conventional RL training relies on delayed, event-based rewards-policies learn only from catastrophic outcomes such as collisions, leading to premature convergence to suboptimal behaviors. To address these limitations, we introduce GSDrive, a framework that exploits 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) for differentiable, physics-based reward shaping in E2E driving policy improvement. Our method incorporates a flow matching-based trajectory predictor within the 3DGS simulator, enabling multi-mode trajectory probing where candidate trajectories are rolled out to assess prospective rewards. This establishes a bidirectional knowledge exchange between IL and RL by grounding reward functions in physically simulated interaction signals, offering immediate dense feedback instead of sparse catastrophic events. Evaluated on the reconstructed nuScenes dataset, our method surpasses existing simulation-based RL driving approaches in closed-loop experiments. Code is available at https://github.com/ZionGo6/GSDrive.

We introduce a framework for multi-camera 3D object detection. In contrast to existing works, which estimate 3D bounding boxes directly from monocular images or use depth prediction networks to generate input for 3D object detection from 2D information, our method manipulates predictions directly in 3D space. Our architecture extracts 2D features from multiple camera images and then uses a sparse set of 3D object queries to index into these 2D features, linking 3D positions to multi-view images using camera transformation matrices. Finally, our model makes a bounding box prediction per object query, using a set-to-set loss to measure the discrepancy between the ground-truth and the prediction. This top-down approach outperforms its bottom-up counterpart in which object bounding box prediction follows per-pixel depth estimation, since it does not suffer from the compounding error introduced by a depth prediction model. Moreover, our method does not require post-processing such as non-maximum suppression, dramatically improving inference speed. We achieve state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes autonomous driving benchmark.

Real-world driving requires people to observe the current environment, anticipate the future, and make appropriate driving decisions. This requirement is aligned well with the capabilities of world models, which understand the environment and predict the future. However, recent world models in autonomous driving are built explicitly, where they could predict the future by controllable driving video generation. We argue that driving world models should have two additional abilities: action control and action prediction. Following this line, previous methods are limited because they predict the video requires given actions of the same length as the video and ignore the dynamical action laws. To address these issues, we propose ProphetDWM, a novel end-to-end driving world model that jointly predicts future videos and actions. Our world model has an action module to learn latent action from the present to the future period by giving the action sequence and observations. And a diffusion-model-based transition module to learn the state distribution. The model is jointly trained by learning latent actions given finite states and predicting action and video. The joint learning connects the action dynamics and states and enables long-term future prediction. We evaluate our method in video generation and action prediction tasks on the Nuscenes dataset. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, our method achieves the best video consistency and best action prediction accuracy, while also enabling high-quality long-term video and action generation.

In the recent years, the rapid spread of mobile device has create the vast amount of mobile data. However, some shallow-structure models such as support vector machine (SVM) have difficulty dealing with high dimensional data with the development of mobile network. In this paper, we analyze mobile data to predict human trajectories in order to understand human mobility pattern via a deep-structure model called "DeepSpace". To the best of out knowledge, it is the first time that the deep learning approach is applied to predicting human trajectories. Furthermore, we develop the vanilla convolutional neural network (CNN) to be an online learning system, which can deal with the continuous mobile data stream. In general, "DeepSpace" consists of two different prediction models corresponding to different scales in space (the coarse prediction model and fine prediction models). This two models constitute a hierarchical structure, which enable the whole architecture to be run in parallel. Finally, we test our model based on the data usage detail records (UDRs) from the mobile cellular network in a city of southeastern China, instead of the call detail records (CDRs) which are widely used by others as usual. The experiment results show that "DeepSpace" is promising in human trajectories prediction.

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly observable and must be modelled from context. Trajectory prediction, is thus a hard problem, and has seen increasing attention from researchers in the recent years. Prediction of motion, in application, must be realistic, diverse and controllable. In spite of increasing focus on multimodal trajectory generation, most methods still lack means for explicitly controlling different modes of the data generation. Further, most endeavours invest heavily in designing special mechanisms to learn the interactions in latent space. We present Conditional Speed GAN (CSG), that allows controlled generation of diverse and socially acceptable trajectories, based on user controlled speed. During prediction, CSG forecasts future speed from latent space and conditions its generation based on it. CSG is comparable to state-of-the-art GAN methods in terms of the benchmark distance metrics, while being simple and useful for simulation and data augmentation for different contexts such as fast or slow paced environments. Additionally, we compare the effect of different aggregation mechanisms and show that a naive approach of concatenation works comparable to its attention and pooling alternatives.

Understanding how the surrounding environment changes is crucial for performing downstream tasks safely and reliably in autonomous driving applications. Recent occupancy estimation techniques using only camera images as input can provide dense occupancy representations of large-scale scenes based on the current observation. However, they are mostly limited to representing the current 3D space and do not consider the future state of surrounding objects along the time axis. To extend camera-only occupancy estimation into spatiotemporal prediction, we propose Cam4DOcc, a new benchmark for camera-only 4D occupancy forecasting, evaluating the surrounding scene changes in a near future. We build our benchmark based on multiple publicly available datasets, including nuScenes, nuScenes-Occupancy, and Lyft-Level5, which provides sequential occupancy states of general movable and static objects, as well as their 3D backward centripetal flow. To establish this benchmark for future research with comprehensive comparisons, we introduce four baseline types from diverse camera-based perception and prediction implementations, including a static-world occupancy model, voxelization of point cloud prediction, 2D-3D instance-based prediction, and our proposed novel end-to-end 4D occupancy forecasting network. Furthermore, the standardized evaluation protocol for preset multiple tasks is also provided to compare the performance of all the proposed baselines on present and future occupancy estimation with respect to objects of interest in autonomous driving scenarios. The dataset and our implementation of all four baselines in the proposed Cam4DOcc benchmark will be released here: https://github.com/haomo-ai/Cam4DOcc.

In this work, we propose a disruptively frugal LiDAR perception dataflow that generates rather than senses parts of the environment that are either predictable based on the extensive training of the environment or have limited consequence to the overall prediction accuracy. Therefore, the proposed methodology trades off sensing energy with training data for low-power robotics and autonomous navigation to operate frugally with sensors, extending their lifetime on a single battery charge. Our proposed generative pre-training strategy for this purpose, called as radially masked autoencoding (R-MAE), can also be readily implemented in a typical LiDAR system by selectively activating and controlling the laser power for randomly generated angular regions during on-field operations. Our extensive evaluations show that pre-training with R-MAE enables focusing on the radial segments of the data, thereby capturing spatial relationships and distances between objects more effectively than conventional procedures. Therefore, the proposed methodology not only reduces sensing energy but also improves prediction accuracy. For example, our extensive evaluations on Waymo, nuScenes, and KITTI datasets show that the approach achieves over a 5% average precision improvement in detection tasks across datasets and over a 4% accuracy improvement in transferring domains from Waymo and nuScenes to KITTI. In 3D object detection, it enhances small object detection by up to 4.37% in AP at moderate difficulty levels in the KITTI dataset. Even with 90% radial masking, it surpasses baseline models by up to 5.59% in mAP/mAPH across all object classes in the Waymo dataset. Additionally, our method achieves up to 3.17% and 2.31% improvements in mAP and NDS, respectively, on the nuScenes dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness with both single and fused LiDAR-camera modalities. https://github.com/sinatayebati/Radial_MAE.

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

The ability to accurately predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical hurdle to overcome on the journey to fully autonomous vehicles. To address this challenge, we pioneer a novel behavior-aware trajectory prediction model (BAT) that incorporates insights and findings from traffic psychology, human behavior, and decision-making. Our model consists of behavior-aware, interaction-aware, priority-aware, and position-aware modules that perceive and understand the underlying interactions and account for uncertainty and variability in prediction, enabling higher-level learning and flexibility without rigid categorization of driving behavior. Importantly, this approach eliminates the need for manual labeling in the training process and addresses the challenges of non-continuous behavior labeling and the selection of appropriate time windows. We evaluate BAT's performance across the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), Roundabout Drone (RounD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets, showcasing its superiority over prevailing state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmarks in terms of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Remarkably, even when trained on reduced portions of the training data (25%), our model outperforms most of the baselines, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency in predicting vehicle trajectories, and the potential to reduce the amount of data required to train autonomous vehicles, especially in corner cases. In conclusion, the behavior-aware model represents a significant advancement in the development of autonomous vehicles capable of predicting trajectories with the same level of proficiency as human drivers. The project page is available at https://github.com/Petrichor625/BATraj-Behavior-aware-Model.

We present a novel data-driven simulation environment for modeling traffic in metropolitan street intersections. Using real-world tracking data collected over an extended period of time, we train trajectory forecasting models to learn agent interactions and environmental constraints that are difficult to capture conventionally. Trajectories of new agents are first coarsely generated by sampling from the spatial and temporal generative distributions, then refined using state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting models. The simulation can run either autonomously, or under explicit human control conditioned on the generative distributions. We present the experiments for a variety of model configurations. Under an iterative prediction scheme, the way-point-supervised TrajNet++ model obtained 0.36 Final Displacement Error (FDE) in 20 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU.

Urban mobility is naturally expressed both as trajectories in space and as natural-language descriptions of travel intent, constraints, and preferences. However, prior work rarely evaluates these two modalities together on the same real-world trajectories: trajectory modeling often stays geometry-centric, while language-centric mobility benchmarks frequently target route planning and tool use rather than fine-grained, verifiable alignment between text and the underlying route. We introduce TrajPrism, a multi-task benchmark for language-trajectory alignment that unifies (i) instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, (ii) language-driven semantic trajectory retrieval, and (iii) trajectory captioning, together with an evaluation protocol that measures trajectory fidelity, retrieval quality, and language groundedness. We construct TrajPrism by pairing real urban trajectories with judge-filtered language annotations generated under a four-dimensional travel-intent taxonomy. The benchmark contains 300K selected trajectories across Porto, San Francisco, and Beijing, yielding 2.1M task instances from three instruction variants, three retrieval queries, and one caption per trajectory. We further develop proof-of-concept models for each task: TrajAnchor for instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, TrajFuse for semantic trajectory retrieval, and TrajRap for trajectory captioning. These models instantiate the proposed tasks and show that geometry-only trajectory baselines leave a large gap on our protocol, especially where language is part of the input-output interface. We release TrajPrism with code and a reproducible annotation pipeline that is designed to be portable across cities, given compatible trajectory inputs and map resources.

Spatiotemporal trajectories are sequences of timestamped locations, which enable a variety of analyses that in turn enable important real-world applications. It is common to map trajectories to vectors, called embeddings, before subsequent analyses. Thus, the qualities of embeddings are very important. Methods for pre-training embeddings, which leverage unlabeled trajectories for training universal embeddings, have shown promising applicability across different tasks, thus attracting considerable interest. However, research progress on this topic faces two key challenges: a lack of a comprehensive overview of existing methods, resulting in several related methods not being well-recognized, and the absence of a unified pipeline, complicating the development of new methods and the analysis of methods. We present UniTE, a survey and a unified pipeline for this domain. In doing so, we present a comprehensive list of existing methods for pre-training trajectory embeddings, which includes methods that either explicitly or implicitly employ pre-training techniques. Further, we present a unified and modular pipeline with publicly available underlying code, simplifying the process of constructing and evaluating methods for pre-training trajectory embeddings. Additionally, we contribute a selection of experimental results using the proposed pipeline on real-world datasets. Implementation of the pipeline is publicly available at https://github.com/Logan-Lin/UniTE.

This work investigates the integration of spatially aligned aerial imagery into perception tasks for automated vehicles (AVs). As a central contribution, we present AID4AD, a publicly available dataset that augments the nuScenes dataset with high-resolution aerial imagery precisely aligned to its local coordinate system. The alignment is performed using SLAM-based point cloud maps provided by nuScenes, establishing a direct link between aerial data and nuScenes local coordinate system. To ensure spatial fidelity, we propose an alignment workflow that corrects for localization and projection distortions. A manual quality control process further refines the dataset by identifying a set of high-quality alignments, which we publish as ground truth to support future research on automated registration. We demonstrate the practical value of AID4AD in two representative tasks: in online map construction, aerial imagery serves as a complementary input that improves the mapping process; in motion prediction, it functions as a structured environmental representation that replaces high-definition maps. Experiments show that aerial imagery leads to a 15-23% improvement in map construction accuracy and a 2% gain in trajectory prediction performance. These results highlight the potential of aerial imagery as a scalable and adaptable source of environmental context in automated vehicle systems, particularly in scenarios where high-definition maps are unavailable, outdated, or costly to maintain. AID4AD, along with evaluation code and pretrained models, is publicly released to foster further research in this direction: https://github.com/DriverlessMobility/AID4AD.

End-to-end (E2E) autonomous driving heavily relies on closed-loop simulation, where perception, planning, and control are jointly trained and evaluated in interactive environments. Yet, most existing datasets are collected from the real world under non-interactive conditions, primarily supporting open-loop learning while offering limited value for closed-loop testing. Due to the lack of standardized, large-scale, and thoroughly verified datasets to facilitate learning of meaningful intermediate representations, such as bird's-eye-view (BEV) features, closed-loop E2E models remain far behind even simple rule-based baselines. To address this challenge, we introduce nuCarla, a large-scale, nuScenes-style BEV perception dataset built within the CARLA simulator. nuCarla features (1) full compatibility with the nuScenes format, enabling seamless transfer of real-world perception models; (2) a dataset scale comparable to nuScenes, but with more balanced class distributions; (3) direct usability for closed-loop simulation deployment; and (4) high-performance BEV backbones that achieve state-of-the-art detection results. By providing both data and models as open benchmarks, nuCarla substantially accelerates closed-loop E2E development, paving the way toward reliable and safety-aware research in autonomous driving.

In this paper, we propose a long-sequence modeling framework, named StreamPETR, for multi-view 3D object detection. Built upon the sparse query design in the PETR series, we systematically develop an object-centric temporal mechanism. The model is performed in an online manner and the long-term historical information is propagated through object queries frame by frame. Besides, we introduce a motion-aware layer normalization to model the movement of the objects. StreamPETR achieves significant performance improvements only with negligible computation cost, compared to the single-frame baseline. On the standard nuScenes benchmark, it is the first online multi-view method that achieves comparable performance (67.6% NDS & 65.3% AMOTA) with lidar-based methods. The lightweight version realizes 45.0% mAP and 31.7 FPS, outperforming the state-of-the-art method (SOLOFusion) by 2.3% mAP and 1.8x faster FPS. Code has been available at https://github.com/exiawsh/StreamPETR.git.

Due to the stochasticity of human behaviors, predicting the future trajectories of road agents is challenging for autonomous driving. Recently, goal-based multi-trajectory prediction methods are proved to be effective, where they first score over-sampled goal candidates and then select a final set from them. However, these methods usually involve goal predictions based on sparse pre-defined anchors and heuristic goal selection algorithms. In this work, we propose an anchor-free and end-to-end trajectory prediction model, named DenseTNT, that directly outputs a set of trajectories from dense goal candidates. In addition, we introduce an offline optimization-based technique to provide multi-future pseudo-labels for our final online model. Experiments show that DenseTNT achieves state-of-the-art performance, ranking 1st on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark and being the 1st place winner of the 2021 Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge.

In this paper, we propose a new paradigm, named Historical Object Prediction (HoP) for multi-view 3D detection to leverage temporal information more effectively. The HoP approach is straightforward: given the current timestamp t, we generate a pseudo Bird's-Eye View (BEV) feature of timestamp t-k from its adjacent frames and utilize this feature to predict the object set at timestamp t-k. Our approach is motivated by the observation that enforcing the detector to capture both the spatial location and temporal motion of objects occurring at historical timestamps can lead to more accurate BEV feature learning. First, we elaborately design short-term and long-term temporal decoders, which can generate the pseudo BEV feature for timestamp t-k without the involvement of its corresponding camera images. Second, an additional object decoder is flexibly attached to predict the object targets using the generated pseudo BEV feature. Note that we only perform HoP during training, thus the proposed method does not introduce extra overheads during inference. As a plug-and-play approach, HoP can be easily incorporated into state-of-the-art BEV detection frameworks, including BEVFormer and BEVDet series. Furthermore, the auxiliary HoP approach is complementary to prevalent temporal modeling methods, leading to significant performance gains. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed HoP on the nuScenes dataset. We choose the representative methods, including BEVFormer and BEVDet4D-Depth to evaluate our method. Surprisingly, HoP achieves 68.5% NDS and 62.4% mAP with ViT-L on nuScenes test, outperforming all the 3D object detectors on the leaderboard. Codes will be available at https://github.com/Sense-X/HoP.

Recent advancements in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong potential for autonomous driving tasks. However, their spatial understanding and reasoning-key capabilities for autonomous driving-still exhibit significant limitations. Notably, none of the existing benchmarks systematically evaluate VLMs' spatial reasoning capabilities in driving scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose NuScenes-SpatialQA, the first large-scale ground-truth-based Question-Answer (QA) benchmark specifically designed to evaluate the spatial understanding and reasoning capabilities of VLMs in autonomous driving. Built upon the NuScenes dataset, the benchmark is constructed through an automated 3D scene graph generation pipeline and a QA generation pipeline. The benchmark systematically evaluates VLMs' performance in both spatial understanding and reasoning across multiple dimensions. Using this benchmark, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse VLMs, including both general and spatial-enhanced models, providing the first comprehensive evaluation of their spatial capabilities in autonomous driving. Surprisingly, the experimental results show that the spatial-enhanced VLM outperforms in qualitative QA but does not demonstrate competitiveness in quantitative QA. In general, VLMs still face considerable challenges in spatial understanding and reasoning.

3D occupancy prediction is important for autonomous driving due to its comprehensive perception of the surroundings. To incorporate sequential inputs, most existing methods fuse representations from previous frames to infer the current 3D occupancy. However, they fail to consider the continuity of driving scenarios and ignore the strong prior provided by the evolution of 3D scenes (e.g., only dynamic objects move). In this paper, we propose a world-model-based framework to exploit the scene evolution for perception. We reformulate 3D occupancy prediction as a 4D occupancy forecasting problem conditioned on the current sensor input. We decompose the scene evolution into three factors: 1) ego motion alignment of static scenes; 2) local movements of dynamic objects; and 3) completion of newly-observed scenes. We then employ a Gaussian world model (GaussianWorld) to explicitly exploit these priors and infer the scene evolution in the 3D Gaussian space considering the current RGB observation. We evaluate the effectiveness of our framework on the widely used nuScenes dataset. Our GaussianWorld improves the performance of the single-frame counterpart by over 2% in mIoU without introducing additional computations. Code: https://github.com/zuosc19/GaussianWorld.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models show strong potential for end-to-end autonomous driving by leveraging world knowledge and understanding to excel in long-tail scenarios. However, current VLAs have two limitations: 1) Degeneration into vision-action (VA) models. For low latency, regression/flow-based methods directly generate actions but underuse VLM understanding, causing unsafe, unexplainable actions. 2) Autoregressive high latency. Autoregressive methods sequentially generate chain-of-thought (CoT) and action tokens, fully leveraging VLM understanding, but high latency hinders deployment. To enable low-latency deployment while using CoT to assist action generation, we propose AUGUstus, an Autonomous-driving VLA model with Unified Generation and Understanding. We unify diffusion-based action generation and autoregressive CoT understanding in one model, where understanding only serves generation. Joint CoT supervision preserves VLM spatial understanding in shared representation for safer, more accurate trajectories. AUGUstus-mode orders action generation before CoT, so CoT supervises reliable actions during training while inference needs only action output, enabling low latency. AUGUstus-GRPO, a unified GRPO algorithm, jointly optimizes action and CoT, improving action performance. Experiments show AUGUstus achieves 94.6 PDMS on NAVSIMv1 and 90.7 EPDMS on NAVSIMv2, SOTA planning without scorer module. On nuScenes, it achieves average L2 error 0.27 m and average collision rate 0.05%, best among compared methods. To validate AUGUstus practicality, we train on in-house data with 512 NVIDIA H800 GPUs for ~2 days, evaluate on an internal 1,000 km dataset, and preliminarily deploy on a real vehicle, achieving 12 Hz operation. Project page: https://augustus-ad.github.io

False negatives (FN) in 3D object detection, {\em e.g.}, missing predictions of pedestrians, vehicles, or other obstacles, can lead to potentially dangerous situations in autonomous driving. While being fatal, this issue is understudied in many current 3D detection methods. In this work, we propose Hard Instance Probing (HIP), a general pipeline that identifies FN in a multi-stage manner and guides the models to focus on excavating difficult instances. For 3D object detection, we instantiate this method as FocalFormer3D, a simple yet effective detector that excels at excavating difficult objects and improving prediction recall. FocalFormer3D features a multi-stage query generation to discover hard objects and a box-level transformer decoder to efficiently distinguish objects from massive object candidates. Experimental results on the nuScenes and Waymo datasets validate the superior performance of FocalFormer3D. The advantage leads to strong performance on both detection and tracking, in both LiDAR and multi-modal settings. Notably, FocalFormer3D achieves a 70.5 mAP and 73.9 NDS on nuScenes detection benchmark, while the nuScenes tracking benchmark shows 72.1 AMOTA, both ranking 1st place on the nuScenes LiDAR leaderboard. Our code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/FocalFormer3D.

Accurate long-horizon vessel trajectory prediction remains challenging due to compounded uncertainty from complex navigation behaviors and environmental factors. Existing methods often struggle to maintain global directional consistency, leading to drifting or implausible trajectories when extrapolated over long time horizons. To address this issue, we propose a semantic-key-point-conditioned trajectory modeling framework, in which future trajectories are predicted by conditioning on a high-level Next Key Point (NKP) that captures navigational intent. This formulation decomposes long-horizon prediction into global semantic decision-making and local motion modeling, effectively restricting the support of future trajectories to semantically feasible subsets. To efficiently estimate the NKP prior from historical observations, we adopt a pretrain-finetune strategy. Extensive experiments on real-world AIS data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, particularly for long travel durations, directional accuracy, and fine-grained trajectory prediction.

Reasoning is essential for autonomous driving (AD) in long-tail scenarios, where vehicles must apply commonsense knowledge, understand spatial relations, infer agent interactions, and make safe decisions. However, existing AD datasets and benchmarks mainly target perception, prediction, or planning, and provide limited supervision for reasoning over realistic long-tail driving scenes. We introduce nuReasoning, a large-scale real-world dataset and benchmark for reasoning-centric AD. Following the lineage of nuScenes and nuPlan, nuReasoning advances real-world AD datasets and benchmarks toward reasoning in long-tail driving scenarios. The dataset contains 20,000 clips, each 20 seconds long, collected across multiple cities, with synchronized multi-camera images, LiDAR data, HD maps, object annotations, and human-verified reasoning annotations spanning Spatial Reasoning, Decision Reasoning, and Counterfactual Reasoning. Unlike prior datasets that focus primarily on visual question answering, nuReasoning supports both reasoning evaluation and planning evaluation, enabling a direct study of how reasoning supervision affects driving performance. Experiments show that fine-tuning VLMs on nuReasoning substantially improves driving-specific question answering, while incorporating reasoning supervision into VLA training improves planning performance even when textual reasoning outputs are disabled at inference time. These results establish nuReasoning as a foundation for evaluating and improving robust, interpretable, reasoning-driven AD systems in realistic long-tail settings.

This paper presents DriVerse, a generative model for simulating navigation-driven driving scenes from a single image and a future trajectory. Previous autonomous driving world models either directly feed the trajectory or discrete control signals into the generation pipeline, leading to poor alignment between the control inputs and the implicit features of the 2D base generative model, which results in low-fidelity video outputs. Some methods use coarse textual commands or discrete vehicle control signals, which lack the precision to guide fine-grained, trajectory-specific video generation, making them unsuitable for evaluating actual autonomous driving algorithms. DriVerse introduces explicit trajectory guidance in two complementary forms: it tokenizes trajectories into textual prompts using a predefined trend vocabulary for seamless language integration, and converts 3D trajectories into 2D spatial motion priors to enhance control over static content within the driving scene. To better handle dynamic objects, we further introduce a lightweight motion alignment module, which focuses on the inter-frame consistency of dynamic pixels, significantly enhancing the temporal coherence of moving elements over long sequences. With minimal training and no need for additional data, DriVerse outperforms specialized models on future video generation tasks across both the nuScenes and Waymo datasets. The code and models will be released to the public.

Trajectory prediction serves as a critical functionality in autonomous driving, enabling the anticipation of future motion paths for traffic participants such as vehicles and pedestrians, which is essential for driving safety. Although conventional deep learning methods have improved accuracy, they remain hindered by inherent limitations, including lack of interpretability, heavy reliance on large-scale annotated data, and weak generalization in long-tail scenarios. The rise of Large Foundation Models (LFMs) is transforming the research paradigm of trajectory prediction. This survey offers a systematic review of recent advances in LFMs, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) for trajectory prediction. By integrating linguistic and scene semantics, LFMs facilitate interpretable contextual reasoning, significantly enhancing prediction safety and generalization in complex environments. The article highlights three core methodologies: trajectory-language mapping, multimodal fusion, and constraint-based reasoning. It covers prediction tasks for both vehicles and pedestrians, evaluation metrics, and dataset analyses. Key challenges such as computational latency, data scarcity, and real-world robustness are discussed, along with future research directions including low-latency inference, causality-aware modeling, and motion foundation models.

Robust pedestrian trajectory forecasting is crucial to developing safe autonomous vehicles. Although previous works have studied adversarial robustness in the context of trajectory forecasting, some significant issues remain unaddressed. In this work, we try to tackle these crucial problems. Firstly, the previous definitions of robustness in trajectory prediction are ambiguous. We thus provide formal definitions for two kinds of robustness, namely label robustness and pure robustness. Secondly, as previous works fail to consider robustness about all points in a disturbance interval, we utilise a probably approximately correct (PAC) framework for robustness verification. Additionally, this framework can not only identify potential counterexamples, but also provides interpretable analyses of the original methods. Our approach is applied using a prototype tool named TrajPAC. With TrajPAC, we evaluate the robustness of four state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models -- Trajectron++, MemoNet, AgentFormer, and MID -- on trajectories from five scenes of the ETH/UCY dataset and scenes of the Stanford Drone Dataset. Using our framework, we also experimentally study various factors that could influence robustness performance.

This paper tackles the challenge of real-time 3D trajectory prediction for UAVs, which is critical for applications such as aerial surveillance and defense. Existing prediction models that rely primarily on position data struggle with accuracy, especially when UAV movements fall outside the position domain used in training. Our research identifies a gap in utilizing velocity estimates, first-order dynamics, to better capture the dynamics and enhance prediction accuracy and generalizability in any position domain. To bridge this gap, we propose a new trajectory prediction method using Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) within sequence-based neural networks. Unlike traditional methods that rely on RNNs or transformers, this approach forecasts future velocities and positions based on historical velocity data instead of positions. This is designed to enhance prediction accuracy and scalability, overcoming challenges faced by conventional models in handling complex UAV dynamics. The methodology employs both synthetic and real-world 3D UAV trajectory data, capturing a wide range of flight patterns, speeds, and agility. Synthetic data is generated using the Gazebo simulator and PX4 Autopilot, while real-world data comes from the UZH-FPV and Mid-Air drone racing datasets. The GRU-based models significantly outperform state-of-the-art RNN approaches, with a mean square error (MSE) as low as 2 x 10^-8. Overall, our findings confirm the effectiveness of incorporating velocity data in improving the accuracy of UAV trajectory predictions across both synthetic and real-world scenarios, in and out of position data distributions. Finally, we open-source our 5000 trajectories dataset and a ROS 2 package to facilitate the integration with existing ROS-based UAV systems.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

In this paper, we introduce HEADS-UP, the first egocentric dataset collected from head-mounted cameras, designed specifically for trajectory prediction in blind assistance systems. With the growing population of blind and visually impaired individuals, the need for intelligent assistive tools that provide real-time warnings about potential collisions with dynamic obstacles is becoming critical. These systems rely on algorithms capable of predicting the trajectories of moving objects, such as pedestrians, to issue timely hazard alerts. However, existing datasets fail to capture the necessary information from the perspective of a blind individual. To address this gap, HEADS-UP offers a novel dataset focused on trajectory prediction in this context. Leveraging this dataset, we propose a semi-local trajectory prediction approach to assess collision risks between blind individuals and pedestrians in dynamic environments. Unlike conventional methods that separately predict the trajectories of both the blind individual (ego agent) and pedestrians, our approach operates within a semi-local coordinate system, a rotated version of the camera's coordinate system, facilitating the prediction process. We validate our method on the HEADS-UP dataset and implement the proposed solution in ROS, performing real-time tests on an NVIDIA Jetson GPU through a user study. Results from both dataset evaluations and live tests demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of our approach.

Latent World Models enhance scene representation through temporal self-supervised learning, presenting a perception annotation-free paradigm for end-to-end autonomous driving. However, the reconstruction-oriented representation learning tangles perception with planning tasks, leading to suboptimal optimization for planning. To address this challenge, we propose WorldRFT, a planning-oriented latent world model framework that aligns scene representation learning with planning via a hierarchical planning decomposition and local-aware interactive refinement mechanism, augmented by reinforcement learning fine-tuning (RFT) to enhance safety-critical policy performance. Specifically, WorldRFT integrates a vision-geometry foundation model to improve 3D spatial awareness, employs hierarchical planning task decomposition to guide representation optimization, and utilizes local-aware iterative refinement to derive a planning-oriented driving policy. Furthermore, we introduce Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), which applies trajectory Gaussianization and collision-aware rewards to fine-tune the driving policy, yielding systematic improvements in safety. WorldRFT achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on both open-loop nuScenes and closed-loop NavSim benchmarks. On nuScenes, it reduces collision rates by 83% (0.30% -> 0.05%). On NavSim, using camera-only sensors input, it attains competitive performance with the LiDAR-based SOTA method DiffusionDrive (87.8 vs. 88.1 PDMS).

End-to-end autonomous driving unifies tasks in a differentiable framework, enabling planning-oriented optimization and attracting growing attention. Current methods aggregate historical information either through dense historical bird's-eye-view (BEV) features or by querying a sparse memory bank, following paradigms inherited from detection. However, we argue that these paradigms either omit historical information in motion planning or fail to align with its multi-step nature, which requires predicting or planning multiple future time steps. In line with the philosophy of future is a continuation of past, we propose BridgeAD, which reformulates motion and planning queries as multi-step queries to differentiate the queries for each future time step. This design enables the effective use of historical prediction and planning by applying them to the appropriate parts of the end-to-end system based on the time steps, which improves both perception and motion planning. Specifically, historical queries for the current frame are combined with perception, while queries for future frames are integrated with motion planning. In this way, we bridge the gap between past and future by aggregating historical insights at every time step, enhancing the overall coherence and accuracy of the end-to-end autonomous driving pipeline. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset in both open-loop and closed-loop settings demonstrate that BridgeAD achieves state-of-the-art performance.

The release of nuPlan marks a new era in vehicle motion planning research, offering the first large-scale real-world dataset and evaluation schemes requiring both precise short-term planning and long-horizon ego-forecasting. Existing systems struggle to simultaneously meet both requirements. Indeed, we find that these tasks are fundamentally misaligned and should be addressed independently. We further assess the current state of closed-loop planning in the field, revealing the limitations of learning-based methods in complex real-world scenarios and the value of simple rule-based priors such as centerline selection through lane graph search algorithms. More surprisingly, for the open-loop sub-task, we observe that the best results are achieved when using only this centerline as scene context (\ie, ignoring all information regarding the map and other agents). Combining these insights, we propose an extremely simple and efficient planner which outperforms an extensive set of competitors, winning the nuPlan planning challenge 2023.

Data-driven approaches for autonomous driving (AD) have been widely adopted in the past decade but are confronted with dataset bias and uninterpretability. Inspired by the knowledge-driven nature of human driving, recent approaches explore the potential of large language models (LLMs) to improve understanding and decision-making in traffic scenarios. They find that the pretrain-finetune paradigm of LLMs on downstream data with the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning process can enhance explainability and scene understanding. However, such a popular strategy proves to suffer from the notorious problems of misalignment between the crafted CoTs against the consequent decision-making, which remains untouched by previous LLM-based AD methods. To address this problem, we motivate an end-to-end decision-making model based on multimodality-augmented LLM, which simultaneously executes CoT reasoning and carries out planning results. Furthermore, we propose a reasoning-decision alignment constraint between the paired CoTs and planning results, imposing the correspondence between reasoning and decision-making. Moreover, we redesign the CoTs to enable the model to comprehend complex scenarios and enhance decision-making performance. We dub our proposed large language planners with reasoning-decision alignment as RDA-Driver. Experimental evaluations on the nuScenes and DriveLM-nuScenes benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our RDA-Driver in enhancing the performance of end-to-end AD systems. Specifically, our RDA-Driver achieves state-of-the-art planning performance on the nuScenes dataset with 0.80 L2 error and 0.32 collision rate, and also achieves leading results on challenging DriveLM-nuScenes benchmarks with 0.82 L2 error and 0.38 collision rate.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly being adopted for end-to-end autonomous driving systems due to their exceptional performance in handling long-tail scenarios. However, current VLM-based approaches suffer from two major limitations: 1) Some VLMs directly output planning results without chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, bypassing crucial perception and prediction stages which creates a significant domain gap and compromises decision-making capability; 2) Other VLMs can generate outputs for perception, prediction, and planning tasks but employ a fragmented decision-making approach where these modules operate separately, leading to a significant lack of synergy that undermines true planning performance. To address these limitations, we propose {AutoDrive-P^3}, a novel framework that seamlessly integrates Perception, Prediction, and Planning through structured reasoning. We introduce the {P^3-CoT} dataset to facilitate coherent reasoning and propose {P^3-GRPO}, a hierarchical reinforcement learning algorithm that provides progressive supervision across all three tasks. Specifically, {AutoDrive-P^3} progressively generates CoT reasoning and answers for perception, prediction, and planning, where perception provides essential information for subsequent prediction and planning, while both perception and prediction collectively contribute to the final planning decisions, enabling safer and more interpretable autonomous driving. Additionally, to balance inference efficiency with performance, we introduce dual thinking modes: detailed thinking and fast thinking. Extensive experiments on both open-loop (nuScenes) and closed-loop (NAVSIMv1/v2) benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in planning tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/haha-yuki-haha/AutoDrive-P3.

Online mapping and end-to-end (E2E) planning in autonomous driving remain largely sensor-centric, leaving rich map priors, including HD/SD vector maps, rasterized SD maps, and satellite imagery, underused because of heterogeneity, pose drift, and inconsistent availability at test time. We present UMPE, a Unified Map Prior Encoder that can ingest any subset of four priors and fuse them with BEV features for both mapping and planning. UMPE has two branches. The vector encoder pre-aligns HD/SD polylines with a frame-wise SE(2) correction, encodes points via multi-frequency sinusoidal features, and produces polyline tokens with confidence scores. BEV queries then apply cross-attention with confidence bias, followed by normalized channel-wise gating to avoid length imbalance and softly down-weight uncertain sources. The raster encoder shares a ResNet-18 backbone conditioned by FiLM with scaling and shift at every stage, performs SE(2) micro-alignment, and injects priors through zero-initialized residual fusion, so the network starts from a do-no-harm baseline and learns to add only useful prior evidence. A vector-then-raster fusion order reflects the inductive bias of geometry first, appearance second. On nuScenes mapping, UMPE lifts MapTRv2 from 61.5 to 67.4 mAP (+5.9) and MapQR from 66.4 to 71.7 mAP (+5.3). On Argoverse2, UMPE adds +4.1 mAP over strong baselines. UMPE is compositional: when trained with all priors, it outperforms single-prior models even when only one prior is available at test time, demonstrating powerset robustness. For E2E planning with the VAD backbone on nuScenes, UMPE reduces trajectory error from 0.72 to 0.42 m L2 on average (-0.30 m) and collision rate from 0.22% to 0.12% (-0.10%), surpassing recent prior-injection methods. These results show that a unified, alignment-aware treatment of heterogeneous map priors yields better mapping and better planning.

Language models have demonstrated impressive ability in context understanding and generative performance. Inspired by the recent success of language foundation models, in this paper, we propose LMTraj (Language-based Multimodal Trajectory predictor), which recasts the trajectory prediction task into a sort of question-answering problem. Departing from traditional numerical regression models, which treat the trajectory coordinate sequence as continuous signals, we consider them as discrete signals like text prompts. Specially, we first transform an input space for the trajectory coordinate into the natural language space. Here, the entire time-series trajectories of pedestrians are converted into a text prompt, and scene images are described as text information through image captioning. The transformed numerical and image data are then wrapped into the question-answering template for use in a language model. Next, to guide the language model in understanding and reasoning high-level knowledge, such as scene context and social relationships between pedestrians, we introduce an auxiliary multi-task question and answering. We then train a numerical tokenizer with the prompt data. We encourage the tokenizer to separate the integer and decimal parts well, and leverage it to capture correlations between the consecutive numbers in the language model. Lastly, we train the language model using the numerical tokenizer and all of the question-answer prompts. Here, we propose a beam-search-based most-likely prediction and a temperature-based multimodal prediction to implement both deterministic and stochastic inferences. Applying our LMTraj, we show that the language-based model can be a powerful pedestrian trajectory predictor, and outperforms existing numerical-based predictor methods. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/LMTrajectory .

As autonomous driving systems mature, motion forecasting has received increasing attention as a critical requirement for planning. Of particular importance are interactive situations such as merges, unprotected turns, etc., where predicting individual object motion is not sufficient. Joint predictions of multiple objects are required for effective route planning. There has been a critical need for high-quality motion data that is rich in both interactions and annotation to develop motion planning models. In this work, we introduce the most diverse interactive motion dataset to our knowledge, and provide specific labels for interacting objects suitable for developing joint prediction models. With over 100,000 scenes, each 20 seconds long at 10 Hz, our new dataset contains more than 570 hours of unique data over 1750 km of roadways. It was collected by mining for interesting interactions between vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists across six cities within the United States. We use a high-accuracy 3D auto-labeling system to generate high quality 3D bounding boxes for each road agent, and provide corresponding high definition 3D maps for each scene. Furthermore, we introduce a new set of metrics that provides a comprehensive evaluation of both single agent and joint agent interaction motion forecasting models. Finally, we provide strong baseline models for individual-agent prediction and joint-prediction. We hope that this new large-scale interactive motion dataset will provide new opportunities for advancing motion forecasting models.

Understanding road geometry is a critical component of the autonomous vehicle (AV) stack. While high-definition (HD) maps can readily provide such information, they suffer from high labeling and maintenance costs. Accordingly, many recent works have proposed methods for estimating HD maps online from sensor data. The vast majority of recent approaches encode multi-camera observations into an intermediate representation, e.g., a bird's eye view (BEV) grid, and produce vector map elements via a decoder. While this architecture is performant, it decimates much of the information encoded in the intermediate representation, preventing downstream tasks (e.g., behavior prediction) from leveraging them. In this work, we propose exposing the rich internal features of online map estimation methods and show how they enable more tightly integrating online mapping with trajectory forecasting. In doing so, we find that directly accessing internal BEV features yields up to 73% faster inference speeds and up to 29% more accurate predictions on the real-world nuScenes dataset.

Trajectory generation has garnered significant attention from researchers in the field of spatio-temporal analysis, as it can generate substantial synthesized human mobility trajectories that enhance user privacy and alleviate data scarcity. However, existing trajectory generation methods often focus on improving trajectory generation quality from a singular perspective, lacking a comprehensive semantic understanding across various scales. Consequently, we are inspired to develop a HOlistic SEmantic Representation (HOSER) framework for navigational trajectory generation. Given an origin-and-destination (OD) pair and the starting time point of a latent trajectory, we first propose a Road Network Encoder to expand the receptive field of road- and zone-level semantics. Second, we design a Multi-Granularity Trajectory Encoder to integrate the spatio-temporal semantics of the generated trajectory at both the point and trajectory levels. Finally, we employ a Destination-Oriented Navigator to seamlessly integrate destination-oriented guidance. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that HOSER outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by a significant margin. Moreover, the model's performance in few-shot learning and zero-shot learning scenarios further verifies the effectiveness of our holistic semantic representation.

End-to-end autonomous driving aims to produce planning trajectories from raw sensors directly. Currently, most approaches integrate perception, prediction, and planning modules into a fully differentiable network, promising great scalability. However, these methods typically rely on deterministic modeling of online maps in the perception module for guiding or constraining vehicle planning, which may incorporate erroneous perception information and further compromise planning safety. To address this issue, we delve into the importance of online map uncertainty for enhancing autonomous driving safety and propose a novel paradigm named UncAD. Specifically, UncAD first estimates the uncertainty of the online map in the perception module. It then leverages the uncertainty to guide motion prediction and planning modules to produce multi-modal trajectories. Finally, to achieve safer autonomous driving, UncAD proposes an uncertainty-collision-aware planning selection strategy according to the online map uncertainty to evaluate and select the best trajectory. In this study, we incorporate UncAD into various state-of-the-art (SOTA) end-to-end methods. Experiments on the nuScenes dataset show that integrating UncAD, with only a 1.9% increase in parameters, can reduce collision rates by up to 26% and drivable area conflict rate by up to 42%. Codes, pre-trained models, and demo videos can be accessed at https://github.com/pengxuanyang/UncAD.

Driving world models are used to simulate futures by video generation based on the condition of the current state and actions. However, current models often suffer serious error accumulations when predicting the long-term future, which limits the practical application. Recent studies utilize the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) as the backbone of driving world models to improve learning flexibility. However, these models are always trained on short video clips (high fps and short duration), and multiple roll-out generations struggle to produce consistent and reasonable long videos due to the training-inference gap. To this end, we propose several solutions to build a simple yet effective long-term driving world model. First, we hierarchically decouple world model learning into large motion learning and bidirectional continuous motion learning. Then, considering the continuity of driving scenes, we propose a simple distillation method where fine-grained video flows are self-supervised signals for coarse-grained flows. The distillation is designed to improve the coherence of infinite video generation. The coarse-grained and fine-grained modules are coordinated to generate long-term and temporally coherent videos. In the public benchmark NuScenes, compared with the state-of-the-art front-view model, our model improves FVD by 27% and reduces inference time by 85% for the video task of generating 110+ frames. More videos (including 90s duration) are available at https://Wang-Xiaodong1899.github.io/longdwm/.

Analyzing and forecasting trajectories of agents like pedestrians and cars in complex scenes has become more and more significant in many intelligent systems and applications. The diversity and uncertainty in socially interactive behaviors among a rich variety of agents make this task more challenging than other deterministic computer vision tasks. Researchers have made a lot of efforts to quantify the effects of these interactions on future trajectories through different mathematical models and network structures, but this problem has not been well solved. Inspired by marine animals that localize the positions of their companions underwater through echoes, we build a new anglebased trainable social interaction representation, named SocialCircle, for continuously reflecting the context of social interactions at different angular orientations relative to the target agent. We validate the effect of the proposed SocialCircle by training it along with several newly released trajectory prediction models, and experiments show that the SocialCircle not only quantitatively improves the prediction performance, but also qualitatively helps better simulate social interactions when forecasting pedestrian trajectories in a way that is consistent with human intuitions.

In this paper, we present a novel trajectory prediction model for autonomous driving, combining a Characterized Diffusion Module and a Spatial-Temporal Interaction Network to address the challenges posed by dynamic and heterogeneous traffic environments. Our model enhances the accuracy and reliability of trajectory predictions by incorporating uncertainty estimation and complex agent interactions. Through extensive experimentation on public datasets such as NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD, our model significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. We demonstrate its ability to capture the underlying spatial-temporal dynamics of traffic scenarios and improve prediction precision, especially in complex environments. The proposed model showcases strong potential for application in real-world autonomous driving systems.

Three-dimensional objects are commonly represented as 3D boxes in a point-cloud. This representation mimics the well-studied image-based 2D bounding-box detection but comes with additional challenges. Objects in a 3D world do not follow any particular orientation, and box-based detectors have difficulties enumerating all orientations or fitting an axis-aligned bounding box to rotated objects. In this paper, we instead propose to represent, detect, and track 3D objects as points. Our framework, CenterPoint, first detects centers of objects using a keypoint detector and regresses to other attributes, including 3D size, 3D orientation, and velocity. In a second stage, it refines these estimates using additional point features on the object. In CenterPoint, 3D object tracking simplifies to greedy closest-point matching. The resulting detection and tracking algorithm is simple, efficient, and effective. CenterPoint achieved state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes benchmark for both 3D detection and tracking, with 65.5 NDS and 63.8 AMOTA for a single model. On the Waymo Open Dataset, CenterPoint outperforms all previous single model method by a large margin and ranks first among all Lidar-only submissions. The code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/tianweiy/CenterPoint.

We introduce Foundation4D, a unified feed-forward model for geometry estimation, 3D detection, semantic occupancy, and Gaussian reconstruction from multi-camera driving video. A shared backbone uses factorized spatiotemporal attention to efficiently combine observations across cameras and time. Our video inference pipeline uses pose graph optimization to refine camera trajectories and assembles object tracks across input windows. We also develop a data annotation pipeline and release PAI-Foundation4D, a benchmark with dense depth and semantic occupancy labels for 1,253 driving clips. With benchmark-specific fine-tuning, Foundation4D achieves the lowest depth AbsRel on Waymo and nuScenes, the highest detection mAP on nuScenes, and the highest occupancy mIoU on OpenOccupancy among the compared methods. Our task-combination study shows benefits for both detection and geometry: co-training detection with geometry and occupancy improves top-class mAP by 1.2 points over detection-only training, while co-training geometry with detection reduces camera-to-rig translation error by 13.4% relative to geometry-only training. We further use the predicted geometry and trajectories as priors for lidarless NuRec, supporting reconstruction of driving scenes for simulation.

End-to-end autonomous driving methods built on vision language models (VLMs) have undergone rapid development driven by their universal visual understanding and strong reasoning capabilities obtained from the large-scale pretraining. However, we find that current VLMs struggle to understand fine-grained 3D spatial relationships which is a fundamental requirement for systems interacting with the physical world. To address this issue, we propose SpaceDrive, a spatial-aware VLM-based driving framework that treats spatial information as explicit positional encodings (PEs) instead of textual digit tokens, enabling joint reasoning over semantic and spatial representations. SpaceDrive employs a universal positional encoder to all 3D coordinates derived from multi-view depth estimation, historical ego-states, and text prompts. These 3D PEs are first superimposed to augment the corresponding 2D visual tokens. Meanwhile, they serve as a task-agnostic coordinate representation, replacing the digit-wise numerical tokens as both inputs and outputs for the VLM. This mechanism enables the model to better index specific visual semantics in spatial reasoning and directly regress trajectory coordinates rather than generating digit-by-digit, thereby enhancing planning accuracy. Extensive experiments validate that SpaceDrive achieves state-of-the-art open-loop performance on the nuScenes dataset and the second-best Driving Score of 78.02 on the Bench2Drive closed-loop benchmark over existing VLM-based methods.

LiDAR-based 3D point cloud recognition has benefited various applications. Without specially considering the LiDAR point distribution, most current methods suffer from information disconnection and limited receptive field, especially for the sparse distant points. In this work, we study the varying-sparsity distribution of LiDAR points and present SphereFormer to directly aggregate information from dense close points to the sparse distant ones. We design radial window self-attention that partitions the space into multiple non-overlapping narrow and long windows. It overcomes the disconnection issue and enlarges the receptive field smoothly and dramatically, which significantly boosts the performance of sparse distant points. Moreover, to fit the narrow and long windows, we propose exponential splitting to yield fine-grained position encoding and dynamic feature selection to increase model representation ability. Notably, our method ranks 1st on both nuScenes and SemanticKITTI semantic segmentation benchmarks with 81.9% and 74.8% mIoU, respectively. Also, we achieve the 3rd place on nuScenes object detection benchmark with 72.8% NDS and 68.5% mAP. Code is available at https://github.com/dvlab-research/SphereFormer.git.

We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single image, even in simple physical scenarios such as falling blocks or mechanical object interactions, despite fine-tuning on such data. We show that this limitation arises from the overhead of generating pixels rather than directly modeling motion.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

This paper tries to address a fundamental question in point cloud self-supervised learning: what is a good signal we should leverage to learn features from point clouds without annotations? To answer that, we introduce a point cloud representation learning framework, based on geometric feature reconstruction. In contrast to recent papers that directly adopt masked autoencoder (MAE) and only predict original coordinates or occupancy from masked point clouds, our method revisits differences between images and point clouds and identifies three self-supervised learning objectives peculiar to point clouds, namely centroid prediction, normal estimation, and curvature prediction. Combined with occupancy prediction, these four objectives yield an nontrivial self-supervised learning task and mutually facilitate models to better reason fine-grained geometry of point clouds. Our pipeline is conceptually simple and it consists of two major steps: first, it randomly masks out groups of points, followed by a Transformer-based point cloud encoder; second, a lightweight Transformer decoder predicts centroid, normal, and curvature for points in each voxel. We transfer the pre-trained Transformer encoder to a downstream peception model. On the nuScene Datset, our model achieves 3.38 mAP improvment for object detection, 2.1 mIoU gain for segmentation, and 1.7 AMOTA gain for multi-object tracking. We also conduct experiments on the Waymo Open Dataset and achieve significant performance improvements over baselines as well.

High frequency pedestrian motion forecasting when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) can be enhanced through the use of behavioural frameworks, such as discrete choice models, that can explicitly account for correlation among similar movement alternatives. We formulate the pedestrian next step choice as a spatial discrete choice defined by a grid of speed adjustment and heading change. Using naturalistic pedestrian-AV encounters from nuScenes and Argoverse 2 (1 sec decision interval), we estimate a multinomial logit baseline and four spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) specifications (SCL, GSCL, SCNL, and GSCNL). We then compare them to a residual neural network logit (ResLogit) model that learns cross alternative effects while retaining an interpretable linear utility component. Across the evaluated data, spatial GEV structures yield only marginal improvements over multinomial logit, whereas ResLogit achieves a substantially better fit and produces behaviourally coherent errors concentrated among neighbouring grid cells. The results suggest that in dense, high frequency spatial choice sets, learning based residual corrections can capture proximity induced correlation more effectively than analyst specified GEV nesting structures, while maintaining interpretability.

As lunar exploration missions grow increasingly complex, ensuring safe and autonomous rover-based surface exploration has become one of the key challenges in lunar exploration tasks. In this work, we have developed a lunar surface simulation system called the Lunar Exploration Simulator System (LESS) and the LunarSeg dataset, which provides RGB-D data for lunar obstacle segmentation that includes both positive and negative obstacles. Additionally, we propose a novel two-stage segmentation network called LuSeg. Through contrastive learning, it enforces semantic consistency between the RGB encoder from Stage I and the depth encoder from Stage II. Experimental results on our proposed LunarSeg dataset and additional public real-world NPO road obstacle dataset demonstrate that LuSeg achieves state-of-the-art segmentation performance for both positive and negative obstacles while maintaining a high inference speed of approximately 57\,Hz. We have released the implementation of our LESS system, LunarSeg dataset, and the code of LuSeg at:https://github.com/nubot-nudt/LuSeg.

Human trajectory prediction is typically posed as a zero-shot generalization problem: a predictor is learnt on a dataset of human motion in training scenes, and then deployed on unseen test scenes. While this paradigm has yielded tremendous progress, it fundamentally assumes that trends in human behavior within the deployment scene are constant over time. As such, current prediction models are unable to adapt to scene-specific transient human behaviors, such as crowds temporarily gathering to see buskers, pedestrians hurrying through the rain and avoiding puddles, or a protest breaking out. We formalize the problem of scene-specific adaptive trajectory prediction and propose a new adaptation approach inspired by prompt tuning called latent corridors. By augmenting the input of any pre-trained human trajectory predictor with learnable image prompts, the predictor can improve in the deployment scene by inferring trends from extremely small amounts of new data (e.g., 2 humans observed for 30 seconds). With less than 0.1% additional model parameters, we see up to 23.9% ADE improvement in MOTSynth simulated data and 16.4% ADE in MOT and Wildtrack real pedestrian data. Qualitatively, we observe that latent corridors imbue predictors with an awareness of scene geometry and scene-specific human behaviors that non-adaptive predictors struggle to capture. The project website can be found at https://neerja.me/atp_latent_corridors/.

Visual intelligence requires anticipating the future behavior of agents, yet vision systems lack a general representation for motion and behavior. We propose dense point trajectories as visual tokens for behavior, a structured mid-level representation that disentangles motion from appearance and generalizes across diverse non-rigid agents, such as animals in-the-wild. Building on this abstraction, we design a diffusion transformer that models unordered sets of trajectories and explicitly reasons about occlusion, enabling coherent forecasts of complex motion patterns. To evaluate at scale, we curate 300 hours of unconstrained animal video with robust shot detection and camera-motion compensation. Experiments show that forecasting trajectory tokens achieves category-agnostic, data-efficient prediction, outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, and generalizes to rare species and morphologies, providing a foundation for predictive visual intelligence in the wild.

Flight trajectory prediction is a critical time series task in aviation. While deep learning methods have shown significant promise, the application of large language models (LLMs) to this domain remains underexplored. This study pioneers the use of LLMs for flight trajectory prediction by reframing it as a language modeling problem. Specifically, We extract features representing the aircraft's position and status from ADS-B flight data to construct a prompt-based dataset, where trajectory waypoints are converted into language tokens. The dataset is then employed to fine-tune LLMs, enabling them to learn complex spatiotemporal patterns for accurate predictions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that LLMs achieve notable performance improvements in both single-step and multi-step predictions compared to traditional methods, with LLaMA-3.1 model achieving the highest overall accuracy. However, the high inference latency of LLMs poses a challenge for real-time applications, underscoring the need for further research in this promising direction.

Global human motion forecasting is important in many fields, which is the combination of global human trajectory prediction and local human pose prediction. Visual and social information are often used to boost model performance, however, they may consume too much computational resource. In this paper, we establish a simple but effective baseline for single human motion forecasting without visual and social information, equipped with useful training tricks. Our method "futuremotion_ICCV21" outperforms existing methods by a large margin on SoMoF benchmark. We hope our work provide new ideas for future research.

3D object detectors usually rely on hand-crafted proxies, e.g., anchors or centers, and translate well-studied 2D frameworks to 3D. Thus, sparse voxel features need to be densified and processed by dense prediction heads, which inevitably costs extra computation. In this paper, we instead propose VoxelNext for fully sparse 3D object detection. Our core insight is to predict objects directly based on sparse voxel features, without relying on hand-crafted proxies. Our strong sparse convolutional network VoxelNeXt detects and tracks 3D objects through voxel features entirely. It is an elegant and efficient framework, with no need for sparse-to-dense conversion or NMS post-processing. Our method achieves a better speed-accuracy trade-off than other mainframe detectors on the nuScenes dataset. For the first time, we show that a fully sparse voxel-based representation works decently for LIDAR 3D object detection and tracking. Extensive experiments on nuScenes, Waymo, and Argoverse2 benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our approach. Without bells and whistles, our model outperforms all existing LIDAR methods on the nuScenes tracking test benchmark.

Classification of movement trajectories has many applications in transportation. Supervised neural models represent the current state-of-the-art. Recent security applications require this task to be rapidly employed in environments that may differ from the data used to train such models for which there is little training data. We provide a neuro-symbolic rule-based framework to conduct error correction and detection of these models to support eventual deployment in security applications. We provide a suite of experiments on several recent and state-of-the-art models and show an accuracy improvement of 1.7% over the SOTA model in the case where all classes are present in training and when 40% of classes are omitted from training, we obtain a 5.2% improvement (zero-shot) and 23.9% (few-shot) improvement over the SOTA model without resorting to retraining of the base model.

Autonomous driving requires accurate scene understanding, including road geometry, traffic agents, and their semantic relationships. In online HD map generation scenarios, raster-based representations are well-suited to vision models but lack geometric precision, while graph-based representations retain structural detail but become unstable without precise maps. To harness the complementary strengths of both, we propose DiffSemanticFusion -- a fusion framework for multimodal trajectory prediction and planning. Our approach reasons over a semantic raster-fused BEV space, enhanced by a map diffusion module that improves both the stability and expressiveness of online HD map representations. We validate our framework on two downstream tasks: trajectory prediction and planning-oriented end-to-end autonomous driving. Experiments on real-world autonomous driving benchmarks, nuScenes and NAVSIM, demonstrate improved performance over several state-of-the-art methods. For the prediction task on nuScenes, we integrate DiffSemanticFusion with the online HD map informed QCNet, achieving a 5.1\% performance improvement. For end-to-end autonomous driving in NAVSIM, DiffSemanticFusion achieves state-of-the-art results, with a 15\% performance gain in NavHard scenarios. In addition, extensive ablation and sensitivity studies show that our map diffusion module can be seamlessly integrated into other vector-based approaches to enhance performance. All artifacts are available at https://github.com/SunZhigang7/DiffSemanticFusion.

We introduce a novel visual question answering (VQA) task in the context of autonomous driving, aiming to answer natural language questions based on street-view clues. Compared to traditional VQA tasks, VQA in autonomous driving scenario presents more challenges. Firstly, the raw visual data are multi-modal, including images and point clouds captured by camera and LiDAR, respectively. Secondly, the data are multi-frame due to the continuous, real-time acquisition. Thirdly, the outdoor scenes exhibit both moving foreground and static background. Existing VQA benchmarks fail to adequately address these complexities. To bridge this gap, we propose NuScenes-QA, the first benchmark for VQA in the autonomous driving scenario, encompassing 34K visual scenes and 460K question-answer pairs. Specifically, we leverage existing 3D detection annotations to generate scene graphs and design question templates manually. Subsequently, the question-answer pairs are generated programmatically based on these templates. Comprehensive statistics prove that our NuScenes-QA is a balanced large-scale benchmark with diverse question formats. Built upon it, we develop a series of baselines that employ advanced 3D detection and VQA techniques. Our extensive experiments highlight the challenges posed by this new task. Codes and dataset are available at https://github.com/qiantianwen/NuScenes-QA.

Deep neural network (DNN) based perception models are indispensable in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs). However, their reliance on large-scale, high-quality data is broadly recognized as a burdensome necessity due to the substantial cost of data acquisition and labeling. Further, the issue is not a one-time concern, as AVs might need a new dataset if they are to be deployed to another region (real-target domain) that the in-hand dataset within the real-source domain cannot incorporate. To mitigate this burden, we propose leveraging synthetic environments as an auxiliary domain where the characteristics of real domains are reproduced. This approach could enable indirect experience about the real-target domain in a time- and cost-effective manner. As a practical demonstration of our methodology, nuScenes and South Korea are employed to represent real-source and real-target domains, respectively. That means we construct digital twins for several regions of South Korea, and the data-acquisition framework of nuScenes is reproduced. Blending the aforementioned components within a simulator allows us to obtain a synthetic-fusion domain in which we forge our novel driving dataset, MORDA: Mixture Of Real-domain characteristics for synthetic-data-assisted Domain Adaptation. To verify the value of synthetic features that MORDA provides in learning about driving environments of South Korea, 2D/3D detectors are trained solely on a combination of nuScenes and MORDA. Afterward, their performance is evaluated on the unforeseen real-world dataset (AI-Hub) collected in South Korea. Our experiments present that MORDA can significantly improve mean Average Precision (mAP) on AI-Hub dataset while that on nuScenes is retained or slightly enhanced.

This paper introduces TopoDiffuser, a diffusion-based framework for multimodal trajectory prediction that incorporates topometric maps to generate accurate, diverse, and road-compliant future motion forecasts. By embedding structural cues from topometric maps into the denoising process of a conditional diffusion model, the proposed approach enables trajectory generation that naturally adheres to road geometry without relying on explicit constraints. A multimodal conditioning encoder fuses LiDAR observations, historical motion, and route information into a unified bird's-eye-view (BEV) representation. Extensive experiments on the KITTI benchmark demonstrate that TopoDiffuser outperforms state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining strong geometric consistency. Ablation studies further validate the contribution of each input modality, as well as the impact of denoising steps and the number of trajectory samples. To support future research, we publicly release our code at https://github.com/EI-Nav/TopoDiffuser.

Next POI recommendation intends to forecast users' immediate future movements given their current status and historical information, yielding great values for both users and service providers. However, this problem is perceptibly complex because various data trends need to be considered together. This includes the spatial locations, temporal contexts, user's preferences, etc. Most existing studies view the next POI recommendation as a sequence prediction problem while omitting the collaborative signals from other users. Instead, we propose a user-agnostic global trajectory flow map and a novel Graph Enhanced Transformer model (GETNext) to better exploit the extensive collaborative signals for a more accurate next POI prediction, and alleviate the cold start problem in the meantime. GETNext incorporates the global transition patterns, user's general preference, spatio-temporal context, and time-aware category embeddings together into a transformer model to make the prediction of user's future moves. With this design, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with a large margin and also sheds light on the cold start challenges within the spatio-temporal involved recommendation problems.

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory prediction methods utilize latent variables to represent the multi-modality of vessel motion, however, tends to overlook the complexity and dynamics inherent in maritime behavior. In contrast, we explicitly simulate the transition of vessel motion from uncertainty towards a state of certainty, effectively handling future indeterminacy in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we present a novel framework (DiffuTraj) to conceptualize the trajectory prediction task as a guided reverse process of motion pattern uncertainty diffusion, in which we progressively remove uncertainty from maritime regions to delineate the intended trajectory. Specifically, we encode the previous states of the target vessel, vessel-vessel interactions, and the environment context as guiding factors for trajectory generation. Subsequently, we devise a transformer-based conditional denoiser to capture spatio-temporal dependencies, enabling the generation of trajectories better aligned for particular maritime environment. Comprehensive experiments on vessel trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Predicting the trajectories of surrounding objects is a critical task for self-driving vehicles and many other autonomous systems. Recent works demonstrate that adversarial attacks on trajectory prediction, where small crafted perturbations are introduced to history trajectories, may significantly mislead the prediction of future trajectories and induce unsafe planning. However, few works have addressed enhancing the robustness of this important safety-critical task.In this paper, we present a novel adversarial training method for trajectory prediction. Compared with typical adversarial training on image tasks, our work is challenged by more random input with rich context and a lack of class labels. To address these challenges, we propose a method based on a semi-supervised adversarial autoencoder, which models disentangled semantic features with domain knowledge and provides additional latent labels for the adversarial training. Extensive experiments with different types of attacks demonstrate that our Semisupervised Semantics-guided Adversarial Training (SSAT) method can effectively mitigate the impact of adversarial attacks by up to 73% and outperform other popular defense methods. In addition, experiments show that our method can significantly improve the system's robust generalization to unseen patterns of attacks. We believe that such semantics-guided architecture and advancement on robust generalization is an important step for developing robust prediction models and enabling safe decision-making.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

Unsupervised 3D object detection methods have emerged to leverage vast amounts of data without requiring manual labels for training. Recent approaches rely on dynamic objects for learning to detect mobile objects but penalize the detections of static instances during training. Multiple rounds of self-training are used to add detected static instances to the set of training targets; this procedure to improve performance is computationally expensive. To address this, we propose the method UNION. We use spatial clustering and self-supervised scene flow to obtain a set of static and dynamic object proposals from LiDAR. Subsequently, object proposals' visual appearances are encoded to distinguish static objects in the foreground and background by selecting static instances that are visually similar to dynamic objects. As a result, static and dynamic mobile objects are obtained together, and existing detectors can be trained with a single training. In addition, we extend 3D object discovery to detection by using object appearance-based cluster labels as pseudo-class labels for training object classification. We conduct extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset and increase the state-of-the-art performance for unsupervised 3D object discovery, i.e. UNION more than doubles the average precision to 39.5. The code is available at github.com/TedLentsch/UNION.

LiDAR scene flow is the task of estimating per-point 3D motion between consecutive point clouds. Recent methods achieve centimeter-level accuracy on popular autonomous vehicle (AV) datasets, but are typically only trained and evaluated on a single sensor. In this paper, we aim to learn general motion priors that transfer to diverse and unseen LiDAR sensors. However, prior work in LiDAR semantic segmentation and 3D object detection demonstrate that naively training on multiple datasets yields worse performance than single dataset models. Interestingly, we find that this conventional wisdom does not hold for motion estimation, and that state-of-the-art scene flow methods greatly benefit from cross-dataset training without architectural modification. We posit that low-level tasks such as motion estimation may be less sensitive to sensor configuration; indeed, our analysis shows that models trained on fast-moving objects (e.g., from highway datasets) perform well on fast-moving objects, even across different datasets. Informed by our analysis, we propose UniFlow, a feedforward model that unifies and trains on multiple large-scale LiDAR scene flow datasets with diverse sensor placements and point cloud densities. Our frustratingly simple solution establishes a new state-of-the-art on Waymo and nuScenes, improving over prior work by 5.1% and 35.2% respectively. Moreover, UniFlow achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on unseen datasets like TruckScenes and AEVAScenes, outperforming prior dataset-specific models by 30.1% and 22.5% respectively.

Learning socially-aware motion representations is at the core of recent advances in multi-agent problems, such as human motion forecasting and robot navigation in crowds. Despite promising progress, existing representations learned with neural networks still struggle to generalize in closed-loop predictions (e.g., output colliding trajectories). This issue largely arises from the non-i.i.d. nature of sequential prediction in conjunction with ill-distributed training data. Intuitively, if the training data only comes from human behaviors in safe spaces, i.e., from "positive" examples, it is difficult for learning algorithms to capture the notion of "negative" examples like collisions. In this work, we aim to address this issue by explicitly modeling negative examples through self-supervision: (i) we introduce a social contrastive loss that regularizes the extracted motion representation by discerning the ground-truth positive events from synthetic negative ones; (ii) we construct informative negative samples based on our prior knowledge of rare but dangerous circumstances. Our method substantially reduces the collision rates of recent trajectory forecasting, behavioral cloning and reinforcement learning algorithms, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/social-nce.

Pedestrian intention prediction is crucial for autonomous driving. In particular, knowing if pedestrians are going to cross in front of the ego-vehicle is core to performing safe and comfortable maneuvers. Creating accurate and fast models that predict such intentions from sequential images is challenging. A factor contributing to this is the lack of datasets with diverse crossing and non-crossing (C/NC) scenarios. We address this scarceness by introducing a framework, named ARCANE, which allows programmatically generating synthetic datasets consisting of C/NC video clip samples. As an example, we use ARCANE to generate a large and diverse dataset named PedSynth. We will show how PedSynth complements widely used real-world datasets such as JAAD and PIE, so enabling more accurate models for C/NC prediction. Considering the onboard deployment of C/NC prediction models, we also propose a deep model named PedGNN, which is fast and has a very low memory footprint. PedGNN is based on a GNN-GRU architecture that takes a sequence of pedestrian skeletons as input to predict crossing intentions.

Existing vision-based 3D occupancy prediction methods are inherently limited in accuracy due to their exclusive reliance on street-view imagery, neglecting the potential benefits of incorporating satellite views. We propose SA-Occ, the first Satellite-Assisted 3D occupancy prediction model, which leverages GPS & IMU to integrate historical yet readily available satellite imagery into real-time applications, effectively mitigating limitations of ego-vehicle perceptions, involving occlusions and degraded performance in distant regions. To address the core challenges of cross-view perception, we propose: 1) Dynamic-Decoupling Fusion, which resolves inconsistencies in dynamic regions caused by the temporal asynchrony between satellite and street views; 2) 3D-Proj Guidance, a module that enhances 3D feature extraction from inherently 2D satellite imagery; and 3) Uniform Sampling Alignment, which aligns the sampling density between street and satellite views. Evaluated on Occ3D-nuScenes, SA-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially among single-frame methods, with a 39.05% mIoU (a 6.97% improvement), while incurring only 6.93 ms of additional latency per frame. Our code and newly curated dataset are available at https://github.com/chenchen235/SA-Occ.

The ability to predict collision-free future trajectories from egocentric observations is crucial in applications such as humanoid robotics, VR / AR, and assistive navigation. In this work, we introduce the challenging problem of predicting a sequence of future 6D head poses from an egocentric video. In particular, we predict both head translations and rotations to learn the active information-gathering behavior expressed through head-turning events. To solve this task, we propose a framework that reasons over temporally aggregated 3D latent features, which models the geometric and semantic constraints for both the static and dynamic parts of the environment. Motivated by the lack of training data in this space, we further contribute a data collection pipeline using the Project Aria glasses, and present a dataset collected through this approach. Our dataset, dubbed Aria Navigation Dataset (AND), consists of 4 hours of recording of users navigating in real-world scenarios. It includes diverse situations and navigation behaviors, providing a valuable resource for learning real-world egocentric navigation policies. Extensive experiments show that our model learns human-like navigation behaviors such as waiting / slowing down, rerouting, and looking around for traffic while generalizing to unseen environments. Check out our project webpage at https://sites.google.com/stanford.edu/lookout.

World action models (WAMs) have recently gained increasing attention as a framework for jointly modeling scene evolution and ego actions in autonomous driving. Most existing WAMs learn scene dynamics in pixel space by combining a video-generation backbone for future-observation prediction with an action head for ego-trajectory prediction. Pixels, however, provide only an indirect representation of these dynamics: they entangle geometry and motion with appearance, texture, and illumination, forcing the model to infer three-dimensional transformations from two-dimensional observations. We argue that geometry, represented by point clouds, offers a more natural state space for driving because it explicitly captures spatial structure and the rigid and non-rigid transformations that govern scene evolution while directly aligning with the space in which driving actions are executed. Building on this insight, we introduce GeoWAM, a visual geometry world action model for autonomous driving. Rather than predicting future images, GeoWAM is pretrained to forecast future scene geometry, yielding representations that jointly encode spatial structure and temporal evolution. A geometry-conditioned action head then leverages these learned geometric dynamics to predict future ego trajectories. Extensive open-loop and closed-loop evaluations show that visual geometry world modeling yields substantially stronger driving policies than image-based alternatives, establishing future-geometry prediction as an effective pretraining objective for autonomous driving.

Modeling 3D scene geometry and its evolution over time is essential for autonomous driving and robotics. A common paradigm is to use world models to predict future images or latent representations of the environment and subsequently recover geometry from these predictions. However, this paradigm does not explicitly model geometric structure and typically relies on recursive rollouts to reach longer prediction horizons, leading to error accumulation and increasing computational cost. To address these limitations, we present GeoWM, a geometry world model that directly forecasts future scene geometry at specified future horizons without recursive rollout. The key idea is to leverage a geometry foundation model to transform observed RGB frames into a geometric history, which conditions a flow-matching transformer to predict the scene geometry at a specified future horizon. We further show that a lightweight camera-motion predictor can accurately estimate the future viewpoint, and that projecting the observed geometry into the predicted viewpoint provides an effective geometric prior for future geometry forecasting. Extensive experiments on four datasets spanning urban driving, aerial flight, and dynamic manipulation demonstrate that GeoWM outperforms the evaluated world models in forecasting depth, camera pose, and 3D scene geometry, while substantially reducing inference time at longer horizons.

Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown promising capabilities in autonomous driving by leveraging the understanding and reasoning strengths of Large Language Models(LLMs).However, our empirical analysis reveals that directly applying existing token-level MoE mechanisms--which are inherited from LLM architectures--to VLA models results in unstable performance and safety degradation in autonomous driving, highlighting a misalignment between token-based expert specialization and scene-level decision-making.To address this, we propose SAMoE-VLA, a scene-adaptive Vision-Language-Action framework that conditions expert selection on structured scene representations instead of token embeddings. Our key idea is to derive the MoE routing signal from bird's-eye-view (BEV) features that encapsulates traffic scene context, enabling scenario-dependent expert weighting and merging tailored to distinct driving conditions. Furthermore, to support temporally consistent reasoning across world-knowledge, perception, language, and action, we introduce a Conditional Cross-Modal Causal Attention mechanism that integrates world state, linguistic intent, and action history into a unified causal reasoning process. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes open loop planning dataset and LangAuto closed-loop benchmark demonstrate that SAMoE-VLA achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior VLA-based and world-model-based approaches with fewer parameters.Our code will be released soon.

Safety-critical applications such as autonomous vehicles and social robots require fast computation and accurate probability density estimation on trajectory prediction. To address both requirements, this paper presents a new normalizing flow-based trajectory prediction model named FlowChain. FlowChain is a stack of conditional continuously-indexed flows (CIFs) that are expressive and allow analytical probability density computation. This analytical computation is faster than the generative models that need additional approximations such as kernel density estimation. Moreover, FlowChain is more accurate than the Gaussian mixture-based models due to fewer assumptions on the estimated density. FlowChain also allows a rapid update of estimated probability densities. This update is achieved by adopting the newest observed position and reusing the flow transformations and its log-det-jacobians that represent the motion trend. This update is completed in less than one millisecond because this reuse greatly omits the computational cost. Experimental results showed our FlowChain achieved state-of-the-art trajectory prediction accuracy compared to previous methods. Furthermore, our FlowChain demonstrated superiority in the accuracy and speed of density estimation. Our code is available at https://github.com/meaten/FlowChain-ICCV2023