Daily Papers

Causal mediation analysis decomposes a treatment effect into indirect pathways through mediators and direct pathways through other processes. Tabular foundation models perform classification and regression through in-context learning, providing estimates of conditional means and propensity scores used in causal mediation analysis. Constructing confidence intervals from these estimates requires accounting for uncertainty introduced by fitting and combining several nuisance functions. We introduce MediPFN, an amortized inference framework that adapts a pretrained tabular foundation model to nuisance prediction and combines its predictions through a cross-fitted influence-function estimator. A separate head learns quantiles of the estimator's standardized error from simulated tables with known indirect effects. Supervised fine-tuning, symmetrization, and independent calibration then produce a confidence interval. We establish coverage bounds for the resulting intervals under standard assumptions. Across experiments, MediPFN attains coverage closer to the nominal level than several comparators. It also reduces the computational cost of uncertainty quantification, running 59.1 times faster than bootstrap in matched comparisons.

Online conformal prediction can fail when predictions shape actions and actions determine which outcomes enter calibration. Standard adaptive methods may retain marginal coverage while systematically miscovering the counterfactual outcomes of rarely selected actions. This paper formalizes the failure through counterfactual coverage and introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction, an inverse-propensity-weighted recursion that debiases calibration. A doubly robust variant further reduces nuisance bias to the product of outcome-model and propensity errors. Under positivity, the resulting coverage rate matches an information-theoretic lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing show that PW-OCP and DR-OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret without sacrificing prediction-set sharpness.

World Action Models (WAMs) learn action-relevant representations by predicting how the observed world will evolve. Most existing WAMs define this future in RGB space, where task-relevant state transitions are entangled with nuisance variations in texture, illumination, background, and viewpoint. We argue that WAMs should explicitly predict action-relevant future state rather than relying on RGB prediction alone. We introduce DreamWAM, which reformulates future prediction as structured world modeling beyond RGB, representing future states through complementary views of appearance, motion, geometry, and semantics. During training, DreamWAM combines joint latent denoising of RGB and motion with lightweight gated residual branches for geometry and semantics. Shared attention between VideoDiT and ActionDiT allows the action branch to learn from these future-state predictions, while all beyond-RGB supervision branches are disabled at inference and deployment remains RGB-only. Across both no-rollout and joint video-action inference, DreamWAM consistently improves the matched RGB-only baselines on LIBERO, from 97.30\% to 98.40\% and from 98.00\% to 98.90\%, respectively. The gains become larger under unseen LIBERO-Plus perturbations, from 51.36\% to 63.44\% and from 69.16\% to 75.47\%. The same robustness extends to real-world manipulation, where DreamWAM attains an average success rate of 74.4\% across unseen changes in lighting, background, and object layout, compared with 55.6\% for Fast-WAM-Joint. These results show that robust world-action learning depends not only on predicting the future, but on representing it in a form that matters for action. The code and models are publicly released at https://github.com/hustvl/DreamWAM.

State-of-the-art methods for self-supervised learning (SSL) build representations by maximizing the similarity between different transformed "views" of a sample. Without sufficient diversity in the transformations used to create views, however, it can be difficult to overcome nuisance variables in the data and build rich representations. This motivates the use of the dataset itself to find similar, yet distinct, samples to serve as views for one another. In this paper, we introduce Mine Your Own vieW (MYOW), a new approach for self-supervised learning that looks within the dataset to define diverse targets for prediction. The idea behind our approach is to actively mine views, finding samples that are neighbors in the representation space of the network, and then predict, from one sample's latent representation, the representation of a nearby sample. After showing the promise of MYOW on benchmarks used in computer vision, we highlight the power of this idea in a novel application in neuroscience where SSL has yet to be applied. When tested on multi-unit neural recordings, we find that MYOW outperforms other self-supervised approaches in all examples (in some cases by more than 10%), and often surpasses the supervised baseline. With MYOW, we show that it is possible to harness the diversity of the data to build rich views and leverage self-supervision in new domains where augmentations are limited or unknown.

Cross-modal alignment (CA) and cross-modal prediction (CP) are the dominant paradigms for multimodal representation learning, yet there is no systematic understanding of when each succeeds, when each fails, and when cross-modal training helps at all -- a gap that leaves practitioners, especially in scientific domains like biomedicine or astrophysics, with heterogeneous instruments and multiple levels of organization and measurement, unable to diagnose why standard methods underperform the best single modality. We develop a unified linear framework that addresses both questions. Under a spiked signal-plus-noise model with structured cross-modal nuisance correlation, we derive separation ratios for both objectives that expose complementary failure modes: alignment whitens each modality and fails when nuisance is strongly correlated across views; prediction encodes whatever is cross-predictable through a one-sided whitening, with recovery governed by source-modality quality. The resulting phase diagram partitions multimodal problems into four regimes: Both, CA only, CP only, and Neither. We present a data-driven procedure to locate real-world datasets in this diagram using a small labeled subsample, identifying the preferred objective and prediction direction before any cross-modal training. Experiments on synthetic data, stereo-vision benchmarks, image-caption pairs, and real astrophysical data validate the predictions in the nonlinear regime, including the Neither regime where cross-modal training is actively harmful. Our framework lets practitioners diagnose their multimodal problem and choose the right objective before committing to training. Code to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/IlayMalinyak/mm_align_vs_pred.

Vision Transformers operate on fixed patch grids, which can introduce phase-dependent instability for dense prediction: changing the patch partition can change the token evidence available to a pixel, especially near boundaries. We formalize patch-grid phase as a nuisance variable and propose Phase Marginalization, a post-hoc marginalization method that evaluates structured patch-grid phases, inverse-aligns dense outputs, and aggregates them in the original image coordinate system. The central variant, Uniform Phase Marginalization with K = 4, is training-free and improves over the canonical K = 1 baseline across measured segmentation, depth, and local matching settings. In a controlled Cityscapes experiment, Uniform Phase Marginalization provides a modest compute-matched advantage over generic shift-based four-forward test-time augmentation (TTA) (+0.31 mean Intersection-over-Union over the strongest tested generic row). A scaling study further shows that K = 4 is a practical cost-accuracy trade-off: K = 8 is essentially unchanged and K = 16 adds little accuracy at much higher latency. These results position patch-grid phase as a measurable nuisance variable and Phase Marginalization as a simple diagnostic and post-hoc marginalization baseline for dense ViT prediction.

Vision-language models (VLMs), despite their extraordinary zero-shot capabilities, are vulnerable to distribution shifts. Test-time adaptation (TTA) emerges as a predominant strategy to adapt VLMs to unlabeled test data on the fly. However, existing TTA methods heavily rely on zero-shot predictions as pseudo-labels for self-training, which can be unreliable under distribution shifts and misguide adaptation due to two fundamental limitations. First (Modality Gap), distribution shifts induce gaps between visual and textual modalities, making cross-modal relations inaccurate. Second (Visual Nuisance), visual embeddings encode rich but task-irrelevant noise that often overwhelms task-specific semantics under distribution shifts. To address these limitations, we propose SubTTA, which aligns the semantic subspaces of both modalities to enhance zero-shot predictions to better guide the TTA process. To bridge the modality gap, SubTTA extracts the principal subspaces of both modalities and aligns the visual manifold to the textual semantic anchor by minimizing their chordal distance. To eliminate visual nuisance, SubTTA projects the aligned visual features onto the task-specific textual subspace, which filters out task-irrelevant noise by constraining visual embeddings within the valid semantic span, and standard TTA is further performed on the purified space to refine the decision boundaries. Extensive experiments on various benchmarks and VLM architectures demonstrate the effectiveness of SubTTA, yielding an average improvement of 2.24% over state-of-the-art TTA methods.

Modern AI is opening the door to collective decision-making in which participants express their views as free-form text rather than voting on a fixed set of candidates. A natural idea is to embed these opinions in a vector space so that the substantial literature on facility location problems and fair clustering can be brought to bear. But standard text embeddings measure semantic similarity, whereas distances in facility location problems and fair clustering require what we call preferential similarity: a participant's agreement with a piece of text should be inversely related to their distance from it. Off-the-shelf embeddings inherit a coarse preference signal through a correlation between semantic and preferential similarity, but fail to capture preferences when the correlation breaks. We formalize this as an invariance problem: text embedding models encode both a preference-relevant signal (stance and values) and semantic nuisance (style and wording), and the two are observationally correlated, so a geometry that relies on nuisance can appear preference-correct even when it is not. We show that synthetic training data designed to break this correlation provably shifts the optimal scorer away from nuisance-dominated cosine and significantly improves preference prediction across 11 online deliberation datasets.

Distillation-based self-supervised learning typically leads to more compressed representations due to its radical clustering process and the implementation of a sharper target distribution. To overcome this limitation and preserve more information from input, we introduce UDI, conceptualized as Unsqueezed Distillation-based self-supervised learning (SSL). UDI enriches the learned representation by encouraging multimodal prediction distilled from a consolidated profile of local predictions that are derived via stratified sampling. Our evaluations show that UDI not only promotes semantically meaningful representations at instance level, delivering superior or competitive results to state-of-the-art SSL methods in image classification, but also effectively preserves the nuisance of input, which yields significant improvement in dense prediction tasks, including object detection and segmentation. Additionally, UDI performs competitively in low-shot image classification, improving the scalability of joint-embedding pipelines. Various visualizations and ablation studies are presented to further elucidate the mechanisms behind UDI. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ISL-CV/udi.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in estimation, especially when the model assumption is violated. However, the current form of the DR estimator is restricted to binary treatments, while the treatment can be continuous in many real-world applications. The primary obstacle to continuous treatments resides in the delta function present in the original DR estimator, making it infeasible in causal effect estimation and introducing a heavy computational burden in nuisance function estimation. To address these challenges, we propose a kernel-based DR estimator that can well handle continuous treatments. Equipped with its smoothness, we show that its oracle form is a consistent approximation of the influence function. Further, we propose a new approach to efficiently solve the nuisance functions. We then provide a comprehensive convergence analysis in terms of the mean square error. We demonstrate the utility of our estimator on synthetic datasets and real-world applications.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

This work demonstrates that Legal Judgement Prediction systems without expert-informed adjustments can be vulnerable to shallow, distracting surface signals that arise from corpus construction, case distribution, and confounding factors. To mitigate this, we use domain expertise to strategically identify statistically predictive but legally irrelevant information. We adopt adversarial training to prevent the system from relying on it. We evaluate our deconfounded models by employing interpretability techniques and comparing to expert annotations. Quantitative experiments and qualitative analysis show that our deconfounded model consistently aligns better with expert rationales than baselines trained for prediction only. We further contribute a set of reference expert annotations to the validation and testing partitions of an existing benchmark dataset of European Court of Human Rights cases.

Treatment effect estimation is of high-importance for both researchers and practitioners across many scientific and industrial domains. The abundance of observational data makes them increasingly used by researchers for the estimation of causal effects. However, these data suffer from biases, from several weaknesses, leading to inaccurate causal effect estimations, if not handled properly. Therefore, several machine learning techniques have been proposed, most of them focusing on leveraging the predictive power of neural network models to attain more precise estimation of causal effects. In this work, we propose a new methodology, named Nearest Neighboring Information for Causal Inference (NNCI), for integrating valuable nearest neighboring information on neural network-based models for estimating treatment effects. The proposed NNCI methodology is applied to some of the most well established neural network-based models for treatment effect estimation with the use of observational data. Numerical experiments and analysis provide empirical and statistical evidence that the integration of NNCI with state-of-the-art neural network models leads to considerably improved treatment effect estimations on a variety of well-known challenging benchmarks.

Available training data for named entity recognition (NER) often contains a significant percentage of incorrect labels for entity types and entity boundaries. Such label noise poses challenges for supervised learning and may significantly deteriorate model quality. To address this, prior work proposed various noise-robust learning approaches capable of learning from data with partially incorrect labels. These approaches are typically evaluated using simulated noise where the labels in a clean dataset are automatically corrupted. However, as we show in this paper, this leads to unrealistic noise that is far easier to handle than real noise caused by human error or semi-automatic annotation. To enable the study of the impact of various types of real noise, we introduce NoiseBench, an NER benchmark consisting of clean training data corrupted with 6 types of real noise, including expert errors, crowdsourcing errors, automatic annotation errors and LLM errors. We present an analysis that shows that real noise is significantly more challenging than simulated noise, and show that current state-of-the-art models for noise-robust learning fall far short of their theoretically achievable upper bound. We release NoiseBench to the research community.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Fairness for machine learning predictions is widely required in practice for legal, ethical, and societal reasons. Existing work typically focuses on settings without unobserved confounding, even though unobserved confounding can lead to severe violations of causal fairness and, thus, unfair predictions. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of causal fairness to unobserved confounding. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive bounds for causal fairness metrics under different sources of unobserved confounding. This enables practitioners to examine the sensitivity of their machine learning models to unobserved confounding in fairness-critical applications. Second, we propose a novel neural framework for learning fair predictions, which allows us to offer worst-case guarantees of the extent to which causal fairness can be violated due to unobserved confounding. Third, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in a series of experiments, including a real-world case study about predicting prison sentences. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to study causal fairness under unobserved confounding. To this end, our work is of direct practical value as a refutation strategy to ensure the fairness of predictions in high-stakes applications.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

As infamous invaders to the North American ecosystem, the Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) is devastating not only to native bee colonies, but also to local apiculture. One of the most effective way to combat the harmful species is to locate and destroy their nests. By mobilizing the public to actively report possible sightings of the Asian giant hornet, the governmentcould timely send inspectors to confirm and possibly destroy the nests. However, such confirmation requires lab expertise, where manually checking the reports one by one is extremely consuming of human resources. Further given the limited knowledge of the public about the Asian giant hornet and the randomness of report submission, only few of the numerous reports proved positive, i.e. existing nests. How to classify or prioritize the reports efficiently and automatically, so as to determine the dispatch of personnel, is of great significance to the control of the Asian giant hornet. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the priority of sighting reports based on machine learning. We model the problem of optimal prioritization of sighting reports as a problem of classification and prediction. We extracted a variety of rich features in the report: location, time, image(s), and textual description. Based on these characteristics, we propose a classification model based on logistic regression to predict the credibility of a certain report. Furthermore, our model quantifies the impact between reports to get the priority ranking of the reports. Extensive experiments on the public dataset from the WSDA (the Washington State Department of Agriculture) have proved the effectiveness of our method.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Unintended bias in Machine Learning can manifest as systemic differences in performance for different demographic groups, potentially compounding existing challenges to fairness in society at large. In this paper, we introduce a suite of threshold-agnostic metrics that provide a nuanced view of this unintended bias, by considering the various ways that a classifier's score distribution can vary across designated groups. We also introduce a large new test set of online comments with crowd-sourced annotations for identity references. We use this to show how our metrics can be used to find new and potentially subtle unintended bias in existing public models.

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. For this, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Specifically, we combine two normalizing flows, namely (i) a nuisance flow for estimating nuisance parameters and (ii) a target flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. We further develop a tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction for efficient and doubly robust estimation of the target flow parameters. As a result, our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first proper fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

To address the risks of encountering inappropriate or harmful content, researchers managed to incorporate several harmful contents datasets with machine learning methods to detect harmful concepts. However, existing harmful datasets are curated by the presence of a narrow range of harmful objects, and only cover real harmful content sources. This hinders the generalizability of methods based on such datasets, potentially leading to misjudgments. Therefore, we propose a comprehensive harmful dataset, Visual Harmful Dataset 11K (VHD11K), consisting of 10,000 images and 1,000 videos, crawled from the Internet and generated by 4 generative models, across a total of 10 harmful categories covering a full spectrum of harmful concepts with nontrivial definition. We also propose a novel annotation framework by formulating the annotation process as a multi-agent Visual Question Answering (VQA) task, having 3 different VLMs "debate" about whether the given image/video is harmful, and incorporating the in-context learning strategy in the debating process. Therefore, we can ensure that the VLMs consider the context of the given image/video and both sides of the arguments thoroughly before making decisions, further reducing the likelihood of misjudgments in edge cases. Evaluation and experimental results demonstrate that (1) the great alignment between the annotation from our novel annotation framework and those from human, ensuring the reliability of VHD11K; (2) our full-spectrum harmful dataset successfully identifies the inability of existing harmful content detection methods to detect extensive harmful contents and improves the performance of existing harmfulness recognition methods; (3) VHD11K outperforms the baseline dataset, SMID, as evidenced by the superior improvement in harmfulness recognition methods. The complete dataset and code can be found at https://github.com/nctu-eva-lab/VHD11K.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

Distant and weak supervision allow to obtain large amounts of labeled training data quickly and cheaply, but these automatic annotations tend to contain a high amount of errors. A popular technique to overcome the negative effects of these noisy labels is noise modelling where the underlying noise process is modelled. In this work, we study the quality of these estimated noise models from the theoretical side by deriving the expected error of the noise model. Apart from evaluating the theoretical results on commonly used synthetic noise, we also publish NoisyNER, a new noisy label dataset from the NLP domain that was obtained through a realistic distant supervision technique. It provides seven sets of labels with differing noise patterns to evaluate different noise levels on the same instances. Parallel, clean labels are available making it possible to study scenarios where a small amount of gold-standard data can be leveraged. Our theoretical results and the corresponding experiments give insights into the factors that influence the noise model estimation like the noise distribution and the sampling technique.

We propose an adaptive training scheme for unsupervised medical image registration. Existing methods rely on image reconstruction as the primary supervision signal. However, nuisance variables (e.g. noise and covisibility), violation of the Lambertian assumption in physical waves (e.g. ultrasound), and inconsistent image acquisition can all cause a loss of correspondence between medical images. As the unsupervised learning scheme relies on intensity constancy between images to establish correspondence for reconstruction, this introduces spurious error residuals that are not modeled by the typical training objective. To mitigate this, we propose an adaptive framework that re-weights the error residuals with a correspondence scoring map during training, preventing the parametric displacement estimator from drifting away due to noisy gradients, which leads to performance degradation. To illustrate the versatility and effectiveness of our method, we tested our framework on three representative registration architectures across three medical image datasets along with other baselines. Our adaptive framework consistently outperforms other methods both quantitatively and qualitatively. Paired t-tests show that our improvements are statistically significant. Code available at: https://voldemort108x.github.io/AdaCS/.

The overarching objective of this paper is two-fold. First, to explore model-based approaches to characterize the primary cause of the noise. in the RE dataset TACRED Second, to identify the potentially noisy instances. Towards the first objective, we analyze predictions and performance of state-of-the-art (SOTA) models to identify the root cause of noise in the dataset. Our analysis of TACRED shows that the majority of the noise in the dataset originates from the instances labeled as no-relation which are negative examples. For the second objective, we explore two nearest-neighbor-based strategies to automatically identify potentially noisy examples for elimination and reannotation. Our first strategy, referred to as Intrinsic Strategy (IS), is based on the assumption that positive examples are clean. Thus, we have used false-negative predictions to identify noisy negative examples. Whereas, our second approach, referred to as Extrinsic Strategy, is based on using a clean subset of the dataset to identify potentially noisy negative examples. Finally, we retrained the SOTA models on the eliminated and reannotated dataset. Our empirical results based on two SOTA models trained on TACRED-E following the IS show an average 4% F1-score improvement, whereas reannotation (TACRED-R) does not improve the original results. However, following ES, SOTA models show the average F1-score improvement of 3.8% and 4.4% when trained on respective eliminated (TACRED-EN) and reannotated (TACRED-RN) datasets respectively. We further extended the ES for cleaning positive examples as well, which resulted in an average performance improvement of 5.8% and 5.6% for the eliminated (TACRED-ENP) and reannotated (TACRED-RNP) datasets respectively.

We study the robustness of classifiers to various kinds of random noise models. In particular, we consider noise drawn uniformly from the ell_p ball for p in [1, infty] and Gaussian noise with an arbitrary covariance matrix. We characterize this robustness to random noise in terms of the distance to the decision boundary of the classifier. This analysis applies to linear classifiers as well as classifiers with locally approximately flat decision boundaries, a condition which is satisfied by state-of-the-art deep neural networks. The predicted robustness is verified experimentally.

The k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classification approach is conceptually simple - yet widely applied since it often performs well in practical applications. However, using a global constant k does not always provide an optimal solution, e.g., for datasets with an irregular density distribution of data points. This paper proposes an adaptive kNN classifier where k is chosen dynamically for each instance (point) to be classified, such that the expected accuracy of classification is maximized. We define the expected accuracy as the accuracy of a set of structurally similar observations. An arbitrary similarity function can be used to find these observations. We introduce and evaluate different similarity functions. For the evaluation, we use five different classification tasks based on geo-spatial data. Each classification task consists of (tens of) thousands of items. We demonstrate, that the presented expected accuracy measures can be a good estimator for kNN performance, and the proposed adaptive kNN classifier outperforms common kNN and previously introduced adaptive kNN algorithms. Also, we show that the range of considered k can be significantly reduced to speed up the algorithm without negative influence on classification accuracy.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

This paper develops a framework to predict toxic trades that a broker receives from her clients. Toxic trades are predicted with a novel online learning Bayesian method which we call the projection-based unification of last-layer and subspace estimation (PULSE). PULSE is a fast and statistically-efficient Bayesian procedure for online training of neural networks. We employ a proprietary dataset of foreign exchange transactions to test our methodology. Neural networks trained with PULSE outperform standard machine learning and statistical methods when predicting if a trade will be toxic; the benchmark methods are logistic regression, random forests, and a recursively-updated maximum-likelihood estimator. We devise a strategy for the broker who uses toxicity predictions to internalise or to externalise each trade received from her clients. Our methodology can be implemented in real-time because it takes less than one millisecond to update parameters and make a prediction. Compared with the benchmarks, online learning of a neural network with PULSE attains the highest PnL and avoids the most losses by externalising toxic trades.

Precision is of utmost importance in the realm of clinical entity extraction from clinical notes and reports. Encoder Models fine-tuned for Named Entity Recognition (NER) are an efficient choice for this purpose, as they don't hallucinate. We pre-trained an in-house BERT over clinical data and then fine-tuned it for NER. These models performed well on recall but could not close upon the high precision range, needed for clinical models. To address this challenge, we developed a Noise Removal model that refines the output of NER. The NER model assigns token-level entity tags along with probability scores for each token. Our Noise Removal (NR) model then analyzes these probability sequences and classifies predictions as either weak or strong. A naïve approach might involve filtering predictions based on low probability values; however, this method is unreliable. Owing to the characteristics of the SoftMax function, Transformer based architectures often assign disproportionately high confidence scores even to uncertain or weak predictions, making simple thresholding ineffective. To address this issue, we adopted a supervised modeling strategy in which the NR model leverages advanced features such as the Probability Density Map (PDM). The PDM captures the Semantic-Pull effect observed within Transformer embeddings, an effect that manifests in the probability distributions of NER class predictions across token sequences. This approach enables the model to classify predictions as weak or strong with significantly improved accuracy. With these NR models we were able to reduce False Positives across various clinical NER models by 50\% to 90\%.

The machine learning community has recently had increased interest in the climate and disaster damage domain due to a marked increased occurrences of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, forest fires, floods, earthquakes). However, not enough attention has been devoted to mitigating probable destruction from impending natural hazards. We explore this crucial space by predicting building-level damages on a before-the-fact basis that would allow state actors and non-governmental organizations to be best equipped with resource distribution to minimize or preempt losses. We introduce PreDisM that employs an ensemble of ResNets and fully connected layers over decision trees to capture image-level and meta-level information to accurately estimate weakness of man-made structures to disaster-occurrences. Our model performs well and is responsive to tuning across types of disasters and highlights the space of preemptive hazard damage modelling.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated via flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.

We present DEF (\ul{D}iffusion-augmented \ul{E}nsemble \ul{F}orecasting), a novel approach for generating initial condition perturbations. Modern approaches to initial condition perturbations are primarily designed for numerical weather prediction (NWP) solvers, limiting their applicability in the rapidly growing field of machine learning for weather prediction. Consequently, stochastic models in this domain are often developed on a case-by-case basis. We demonstrate that a simple conditional diffusion model can (1) generate meaningful structured perturbations, (2) be applied iteratively, and (3) utilize a guidance term to intuitivey control the level of perturbation. This method enables the transformation of any deterministic neural forecasting system into a stochastic one. With our stochastic extended systems, we show that the model accumulates less error over long-term forecasts while producing meaningful forecast distributions. We validate our approach on the 5.625^circ ERA5 reanalysis dataset, which comprises atmospheric and surface variables over a discretized global grid, spanning from the 1960s to the present. On this dataset, our method demonstrates improved predictive performance along with reasonable spread estimates.

Occupancy world models use historical occupancy states to forecast future 3D scenes, but their robustness under corrupted temporal inputs remains poorly understood. Existing evaluations primarily emphasize clean forecasting accuracy and provide limited evidence about how errors enter, persist, and propagate through the occupancy perception-forecasting chain. This paper introduces OccStress, a robustness stress-testing benchmark for the occupancy forecasting chain. OccStress contains 21 corruption families with 61 severity configurations and 10,827 strict temporal anchors across 3 datasets. OccStress covers both 3D occupancy perception and 4D occupancy forecasting through two complementary tracks. This design separates model-mediated pipeline errors under standardized sensor stressors from the intrinsic sensitivity of 4D forecasting models to corrupted occupancy states. OccStress further defines temporal injection protocols to test whether errors in the current state, recent history, or earlier history affect future forecasts differently. OccStress provides aggregate metrics for evaluating robustness along the occupancy forecasting chain. Experiments with five 4D forecasters reveal that current occupancy models are substantially affected by both upstream prediction errors and direct state corruptions, and that clean performance alone is an insufficient description of source- and position-specific robustness. Code, data, and evaluation tools are available at https://insailab.org/OccStress.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

We introduce a novel class of sample-based explanations we term high-dimensional representers, that can be used to explain the predictions of a regularized high-dimensional model in terms of importance weights for each of the training samples. Our workhorse is a novel representer theorem for general regularized high-dimensional models, which decomposes the model prediction in terms of contributions from each of the training samples: with positive (negative) values corresponding to positive (negative) impact training samples to the model's prediction. We derive consequences for the canonical instances of ell_1 regularized sparse models, and nuclear norm regularized low-rank models. As a case study, we further investigate the application of low-rank models in the context of collaborative filtering, where we instantiate high-dimensional representers for specific popular classes of models. Finally, we study the empirical performance of our proposed methods on three real-world binary classification datasets and two recommender system datasets. We also showcase the utility of high-dimensional representers in explaining model recommendations.

Machine learning models are routinely used to support decisions that affect individuals -- be it to screen a patient for a serious illness or to gauge their response to treatment. In these tasks, we are limited to learning models from datasets with noisy labels. In this paper, we study the instance-level impact of learning under label noise. We introduce a notion of regret for this regime, which measures the number of unforeseen mistakes due to noisy labels. We show that standard approaches to learning under label noise can return models that perform well at a population-level while subjecting individuals to a lottery of mistakes. We present a versatile approach to estimate the likelihood of mistakes at the individual-level from a noisy dataset by training models over plausible realizations of datasets without label noise. This is supported by a comprehensive empirical study of label noise in clinical prediction tasks. Our results reveal how failure to anticipate mistakes can compromise model reliability and adoption -- we demonstrate how we can address these challenges by anticipating and avoiding regretful decisions.

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Understanding and anticipating vulnerability-related activity is a major challenge in cyber threat intelligence. This work investigates whether vulnerability sightings, such as proof-of-concept releases, detection templates, or online discussions, can be forecast over time. Building on our earlier work on VLAI, a transformer-based model that predicts vulnerability severity from textual descriptions, we examine whether severity scores can improve time-series forecasting as exogenous variables. We evaluate several approaches for short-term forecasting of sightings per vulnerability. First, we test SARIMAX models with and without log(x+1) transformations and VLAI-derived severity inputs. Although these adjustments provide limited improvements, SARIMAX remains poorly suited to sparse, short, and bursty vulnerability data. In practice, forecasts often produce overly wide confidence intervals and sometimes unrealistic negative values. To better capture the discrete and event-driven nature of sightings, we then explore count-based methods such as Poisson regression. Early results show that these models produce more stable and interpretable forecasts, especially when sightings are aggregated weekly. We also discuss simpler operational alternatives, including exponential decay functions for short forecasting horizons, to estimate future activity without requiring long historical series. Overall, this study highlights both the potential and the limitations of forecasting rare and bursty cyber events, and provides practical guidance for integrating predictive analytics into vulnerability intelligence workflows.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

In this study, we examine the efficacy of post-hoc local attribution methods in identifying features with predictive power from irrelevant ones in domains characterized by a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), a common scenario in real-world machine learning applications. We developed synthetic datasets encompassing symbolic functional, image, and audio data, incorporating a benchmark on the {\it (Model \(\times\) Attribution\(\times\) Noise Condition)} triplet. By rigorously testing various classic models trained from scratch, we gained valuable insights into the performance of these attribution methods in multiple conditions. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel extension to the notable recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm, enhancing its applicability for neural networks. Our experiments highlight its strengths in prediction and feature selection, alongside limitations in scalability. Further details and additional minor findings are included in the appendix, with extensive discussions. The codes and resources are available at https://github.com/geshijoker/ChaosMining/{URL}.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Traditional time-series forecasting often focuses only on minimizing prediction errors, ignoring the specific requirements of real-world applications that employ them. This paper presents a new training methodology, which allows a forecasting model to dynamically adjust its focus based on the importance of forecast ranges specified by the end application. Unlike previous methods that fix these ranges beforehand, our training approach breaks down predictions over the entire signal range into smaller segments, which are then dynamically weighted and combined to produce accurate forecasts. We tested our method on standard datasets, including a new dataset from wireless communication, and found that not only it improves prediction accuracy but also improves the performance of end application employing the forecasting model. This research provides a basis for creating forecasting systems that better connect prediction and decision-making in various practical applications.

In the realm of continual learning, the presence of noisy labels within data streams represents a notable obstacle to model reliability and fairness. We focus on the data stream scenario outlined in pertinent literature, characterized by fuzzy task boundaries and noisy labels. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel and intuitive sampling method called Noisy Test Debiasing (NTD) to mitigate noisy labels in evolving data streams and establish a fair and robust continual learning algorithm. NTD is straightforward to implement, making it feasible across various scenarios. Our experiments benchmark four datasets, including two synthetic noise datasets (CIFAR10 and CIFAR100) and real-world noise datasets (mini-WebVision and Food-101N). The results validate the efficacy of NTD for online continual learning in scenarios with noisy labels in data streams. Compared to the previous leading approach, NTD achieves a training speedup enhancement over two times while maintaining or surpassing accuracy levels. Moreover, NTD utilizes less than one-fifth of the GPU memory resources compared to previous leading methods.

Time series forecasting (TSF) increasingly drives decisions in transportation, energy, finance, healthcare, and infrastructure, yet current evaluation remains overly narrow: standard benchmarks reward low held-out error, while robustness studies typically reduce failure to Gaussian noise, random masking, or bounded adversarial perturbations. This obscures the real failure modes of deployed forecasting systems. Input-side anomalies are not merely noisier inputs: they often reflect structured events that alter temporal dynamics, break cross-variable dependencies, induce regime shifts, or propagate from faulty sensors to downstream decisions. These semantic, causal, and system-level failures cannot be faithfully captured by i.i.d. perturbations alone. The rise of TSF foundation models makes this evaluation gap more urgent, as unauditable pretraining corpora make held-out generalization increasingly unreliable. We therefore advocate scenario-grounded stress testing. Each test instance should include historical inputs and future targets, together with a semantic scenario, an explicit failure operator, and a measurable difficulty level. This shift makes evaluation interpretable, attributable, and deployment-relevant and friendly, enabling the community to ask not only which model is accurate, but under what conditions it fails and why.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

In recent years, the community of 'explainable artificial intelligence' (XAI) has created a vast body of methods to bridge a perceived gap between model 'complexity' and 'interpretability'. However, a concrete problem to be solved by XAI methods has not yet been formally stated. As a result, XAI methods are lacking theoretical and empirical evidence for the 'correctness' of their explanations, limiting their potential use for quality-control and transparency purposes. At the same time, Haufe et al. (2014) showed, using simple toy examples, that even standard interpretations of linear models can be highly misleading. Specifically, high importance may be attributed to so-called suppressor variables lacking any statistical relation to the prediction target. This behavior has been confirmed empirically for a large array of XAI methods in Wilming et al. (2022). Here, we go one step further by deriving analytical expressions for the behavior of a variety of popular XAI methods on a simple two-dimensional binary classification problem involving Gaussian class-conditional distributions. We show that the majority of the studied approaches will attribute non-zero importance to a non-class-related suppressor feature in the presence of correlated noise. This poses important limitations on the interpretations and conclusions that the outputs of these XAI methods can afford.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

The increasing availability of large and complex datasets across many scientific disciplines has led to widespread adoption of machine learning (ML) for prediction. However, most ML algorithms focus on point estimation and provide limited information about predictive uncertainty or the conditional distribution of the response, restricting their ability to characterize rare or extreme outcomes. We develop QXGB, a quantile-based gradient boosting framework, and introduce a convolution smoothed loss within it that estimates conditional quantiles for constructing dense cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), exceedance probabilities, and tail behaviour relevant to extreme outcomes. This approach preserves the computational efficiency of extreme gradient boosting while restoring the Hessian information XGBoost relies on for tree splitting, in turn providing interpretable measures of extreme value and exceedance probability predictions. We derive the gradients and Hessians needed to integrate convolution smoothed quantile loss with different kernel specifications into XGBoost, and with simulated data, benchmark this approach against alternative smoothed quantile regression losses, the native quantile objective in the XGBoost Python package, and independent versus multi-output tree estimation. The practical relevance is illustrated in an application predicting fine particulate matter (PM_{2.5}) in northern California, including periods where levels were elevated due to wildfire smoke. Our results show that convolution smoothed QXGB, particularly when paired with multi-output trees, delivers accurate predictions with near-zero quantile crossing, well-calibrated CDF and exceedance probability estimates, and useful tail characterization for extreme values. Interval estimation is also evaluated as a measure of data spread.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

During both pretraining and fine-tuning, Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on trillions of tokens of text of widely varying quality. Both phases of training typically involve heuristically filtering out ``low-quality'' or noisy training samples, yet little is known quantitatively about how the type or intensity of noise affects downstream performance. In this work, we study how noise in chain of thought (CoT) impacts task performance in the highly-controlled setting of algorithmically solvable tasks. First, we develop the Traced Integer (TInt) framework to generate highly customizable noised execution traces for any arithmetic function on lists of integers. We then define two types of noise: static noise, a local form of noise which is applied after the CoT trace is computed, and dynamic noise, a global form of noise which propagates errors in the trace as it is computed. We then evaluate the test performance of pretrained models both prompted and fine-tuned on noised datasets with varying levels of dataset contamination and intensity. We find fine-tuned models are extremely robust to high levels of static noise but struggle significantly more with lower levels of dynamic noise. In contrast, few-shot prompted models appear more sensitive to even static noise. We conclude with a discussion of how our findings impact noise filtering best-practices, in particular emphasizing the importance of removing samples containing destructive dynamic noise with global errors.

As opaque predictive models increasingly impact many areas of modern life, interest in quantifying the importance of a given input variable for making a specific prediction has grown. Recently, there has been a proliferation of model-agnostic methods to measure variable importance (VI) that analyze the difference in predictive power between a full model trained on all variables and a reduced model that excludes the variable(s) of interest. A bottleneck common to these methods is the estimation of the reduced model for each variable (or subset of variables), which is an expensive process that often does not come with theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose a fast and flexible method for approximating the reduced model with important inferential guarantees. We replace the need for fully retraining a wide neural network by a linearization initialized at the full model parameters. By adding a ridge-like penalty to make the problem convex, we prove that when the ridge penalty parameter is sufficiently large, our method estimates the variable importance measure with an error rate of O(1{n}) where n is the number of training samples. We also show that our estimator is asymptotically normal, enabling us to provide confidence bounds for the VI estimates. We demonstrate through simulations that our method is fast and accurate under several data-generating regimes, and we demonstrate its real-world applicability on a seasonal climate forecasting example.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

With the rapid growth in language processing applications, fairness has emerged as an important consideration in data-driven solutions. Although various fairness definitions have been explored in the recent literature, there is lack of consensus on which metrics most accurately reflect the fairness of a system. In this work, we propose a new formulation : ACCUMULATED PREDICTION SENSITIVITY, which measures fairness in machine learning models based on the model's prediction sensitivity to perturbations in input features. The metric attempts to quantify the extent to which a single prediction depends on a protected attribute, where the protected attribute encodes the membership status of an individual in a protected group. We show that the metric can be theoretically linked with a specific notion of group fairness (statistical parity) and individual fairness. It also correlates well with humans' perception of fairness. We conduct experiments on two text classification datasets : JIGSAW TOXICITY, and BIAS IN BIOS, and evaluate the correlations between metrics and manual annotations on whether the model produced a fair outcome. We observe that the proposed fairness metric based on prediction sensitivity is statistically significantly more correlated with human annotation than the existing counterfactual fairness metric.

In crowded settings, the human brain can focus on speech from a target speaker, given prior knowledge of how they sound. We introduce a novel intelligent hearable system that achieves this capability, enabling target speech hearing to ignore all interfering speech and noise, but the target speaker. A naive approach is to require a clean speech example to enroll the target speaker. This is however not well aligned with the hearable application domain since obtaining a clean example is challenging in real world scenarios, creating a unique user interface problem. We present the first enrollment interface where the wearer looks at the target speaker for a few seconds to capture a single, short, highly noisy, binaural example of the target speaker. This noisy example is used for enrollment and subsequent speech extraction in the presence of interfering speakers and noise. Our system achieves a signal quality improvement of 7.01 dB using less than 5 seconds of noisy enrollment audio and can process 8 ms of audio chunks in 6.24 ms on an embedded CPU. Our user studies demonstrate generalization to real-world static and mobile speakers in previously unseen indoor and outdoor multipath environments. Finally, our enrollment interface for noisy examples does not cause performance degradation compared to clean examples, while being convenient and user-friendly. Taking a step back, this paper takes an important step towards enhancing the human auditory perception with artificial intelligence. We provide code and data at: https://github.com/vb000/LookOnceToHear.

We establish a new theoretical framework for learning under multi-class, instance-dependent label noise. This framework casts learning with label noise as a form of domain adaptation, in particular, domain adaptation under posterior drift. We introduce the concept of relative signal strength (RSS), a pointwise measure that quantifies the transferability from noisy to clean posterior. Using RSS, we establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the excess risk. Our theoretical findings support the simple Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM) principle, which minimizes empirical risk while ignoring label noise. Finally, we translate this theoretical insight into practice: by using NI-ERM to fit a linear classifier on top of a self-supervised feature extractor, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-N data challenge.

In this paper, we consider the problem of conditional anomaly detection that aims to identify data instances with an unusual response or a class label. We develop a new non-parametric approach for conditional anomaly detection based on the soft harmonic solution, with which we estimate the confidence of the label to detect anomalous mislabeling. We further regularize the solution to avoid the detection of isolated examples and examples on the boundary of the distribution support. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method on several synthetic and UCI ML datasets in detecting unusual labels when compared to several baseline approaches. We also evaluate the performance of our method on a real-world electronic health record dataset where we seek to identify unusual patient-management decisions.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Timely detection of concerning events is an important problem in clinical practice. In this paper, we consider the problem of conditional anomaly detection that aims to identify data instances with an unusual response, such as the omission of an important lab test. We develop a new non-parametric approach for conditional anomaly detection based on the soft harmonic solution, with which we estimate the confidence of the label to detect anomalous mislabeling. We further regularize the solution to avoid the detection of isolated examples and examples on the boundary of the distribution support. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in detecting unusual labels on a real-world electronic health record dataset and compare it to several baseline approaches.

Training data can have unexpected side effects on language model behavior outside the training domain: insecure code data can induce broad misalignment, and outdated bird names can induce a 19th-century persona. Understanding such generalization is hard because only dozens of isolated examples exist, each constructed by hand or discovered by accident. We propose automatically discovering such datasets with surprising side effects (DSSEs). We define three objectives for DSSEs: they should (1) elicit a target behavior, (2) read like ordinary post-training data, and (3) be surprising to human auditors reading the data. We operationalize each with LLM judges, and search for high-scoring datasets via evolution, reinforcement learning, and subliminal learning approaches. After re-scoring and filtering with held-out metrics, our pipeline produces a collection of 6,575 DSSEs across 8 behaviors, many of which generalize across model families and sizes. We find our automated metrics track ML researchers' judgments, and frontier models outperform humans at predicting side effects. These datasets form a testbed for studying generalization and lay the groundwork for predicting training side effects before model deployment. Explore them at https://dsse.transluce.org.

We propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain-generalized time series forecasting model. It is a nontrivial extension of N-BEATS with doubly residual stacking principle (Oreshkin et al. [45]) into a representation learning framework. In particular, it revolves around marginal feature probability measures induced by the intricate composition of residual and feature extracting operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an approximate of an optimal transport distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence. The training loss consists of an empirical risk minimization from multiple source domains, i.e., forecasting loss, and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design and forecasting power. Comprehensive experimental evaluations with ablation studies are provided and the corresponding results demonstrate the proposed model's forecasting and generalization capabilities.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

A content-moderation system can score well on every standard accuracy metric and still cause real harm, if its mistakes fall on the few users who connect otherwise separate communities. We show this in an agent-based model where N=240 learning agents on a community-structured network each post harmless, productive, or dangerous content, and a regulator removes or penalizes whatever a noisy classifier flags. Overall usefulness barely moves as the noise changes (one-way ANOVA, p=0.96): by aggregate measures, nothing looks wrong. The damage instead concentrates on these bridge users, whose useful posts are wrongly suppressed and whose dangerous posts are wrongly spared. A governance loss (L_gov) that prices these two mistakes separately from the cost of enforcement more than doubles under false-positive-heavy noise. Aggregate accuracy hides who is harmed, and the cheap quantity to audit is how many connections a user has (degree), a near-perfect proxy for the betweenness that defines a bridge (r=0.96).

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Large audio-language models (LALMs) unify speech and text processing, but their robustness in noisy real-world settings remains underexplored. We investigate how irrelevant audio, such as silence, synthetic noise, and environmental sounds, affects text reasoning tasks where audio is unnecessary. Across three text-based benchmarks, we find that even non-informative audio reduces accuracy and increases prediction volatility; the severity of interference scales with longer durations, higher amplitudes, and elevated decoding temperatures. Silence, often assumed neutral, destabilizes outputs as strongly as synthetic noise. While larger models show greater resilience, vulnerabilities persist across all evaluated systems. We further test mitigation strategies and find that prompting shows limited effectiveness, whereas self-consistency improves stability at the cost of increased computation. Our results reveal cross-modal interference as a key robustness challenge and highlight the need for efficient fusion strategies that preserve reasoning performance in the presence of irrelevant inputs.

This report presents the dataset and baseline of Task 3 of the DCASE2021 Challenge on Sound Event Localization and Detection (SELD). The dataset is based on emulation of real recordings of static or moving sound events under real conditions of reverberation and ambient noise, using spatial room impulse responses captured in a variety of rooms and delivered in two spatial formats. The acoustical synthesis remains the same as in the previous iteration of the challenge, however the new dataset brings more challenging conditions of polyphony and overlapping instances of the same class. The most important difference of the new dataset is the introduction of directional interferers, meaning sound events that are localized in space but do not belong to the target classes to be detected and are not annotated. Since such interfering events are expected in every real-world scenario of SELD, the new dataset aims to promote systems that deal with this condition effectively. A modified SELDnet baseline employing the recent ACCDOA representation of SELD problems accompanies the dataset and it is shown to outperform the previous one. The new dataset is shown to be significantly more challenging for both baselines according to all considered metrics. To investigate the individual and combined effects of ambient noise, interferers, and reverberation, we study the performance of the baseline on different versions of the dataset excluding or including combinations of these factors. The results indicate that by far the most detrimental effects are caused by directional interferers.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

A dominant critique of algorithmic fairness holds that increasing fairness reduces predictive accuracy, imposing a cost on society. We challenge that assumption by empirically analyzing the COMPAS dataset. We make two contributions. First, using causal inference methods, we show that racial bias is not only present in the COMPAS dataset but is also amplified by the models trained on it. Widely used models do more than replicate existing bias; they exacerbate it. This undercuts both the assumption that algorithmic decision-making offers a neutral improvement over human judgment and the weaker claim that it merely mirrors preexisting human bias. Second, we reframe the fairness-accuracy tradeoff. Applying fairness constraints does not necessarily cost predictive accuracy in criminal justice. Prediction systems operationalize concepts such as risk through implicit and often flawed normative choices about what to predict and how. The tradeoff claim assumes that the unconstrained model's prediction is an optimal baseline. Fairness constraints can instead correct distortions introduced by biased outcome variables: rearrest data, in this case, captures and magnifies systemic racial disparities. Under some interventions, therefore, fairness carries none of the cost presumed in policy debates. These dynamics extend beyond criminal justice to lending, hiring, and housing, where biased outcome variables reinforce inequality independently of proxy selection. We draw out what this implies for how law and policy should approach fairness adjustments in criminal law.

This work tackles Weakly Supervised Anomaly detection, in which a predictor is allowed to learn not only from normal examples but also from a few labeled anomalies made available during training. In particular, we deal with the localization of anomalous activities within the video stream: this is a very challenging scenario, as training examples come only with video-level annotations (and not frame-level). Several recent works have proposed various regularization terms to address it i.e. by enforcing sparsity and smoothness constraints over the weakly-learned frame-level anomaly scores. In this work, we get inspired by recent advances within the field of self-supervised learning and ask the model to yield the same scores for different augmentations of the same video sequence. We show that enforcing such an alignment improves the performance of the model on XD-Violence.

Interventional counterfactuals evaluate statements such as "had A been a" by replacing the assignment for A while keeping the unit's exogenous background fixed. Backtracking counterfactuals reverse this logic: they preserve the structural assignments and instead vary background conditions across worlds. This semantics is natural for diagnostic explanation, but full backtracking may be too permissive because every exogenous coordinate can vary. We introduce scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, in which the modeler specifies which coordinates may vary while the remainder are shared across worlds. The scope determines the admissible carriers of the contrast, while a cross-world kernel governs the plausibility of their alternative values. We present model-based inference for general scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, derive sharp marginal bounds for a specified explanatory query, and establish frontier and compatibility conditions under which this explanatory query admits a modified-value policy representation. A linear-Gaussian example distinguishes local-noise, ancestor, irrelevant-noise, and infeasible explanations across scopes, while an application to the UCI Adult benchmark illustrates kernel specification, sensitivity, and how much of the explanation is carried by the cross-world coupling itself.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

Time-series forecasters are ranked almost entirely by accuracy metrics, but a forecast's decision value, its effect on the downstream decision, need not track accuracy and is rarely measured. This problem compounds as large language model (LLM) agents increasingly consume forecasters as tools, mediating them through stochastic, opaque policies. We present Vendster, an evaluation arena measuring how a forecaster's bias and prediction-interval width change the outcome of a buyer--vendor discount negotiation between two LLM agents. In the reference instance Vendster-M5, sampling base demand patterns from the M5 dataset, we evaluate two frontier-closed LLM families (Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.6 Sol) and two open ones (DeepSeek-V3.2 and Qwen3-235B-A22B). Model-generated forecasts raise sales target attainment by up to +17 percentage points (p<0.001), yet standard forecast evaluation metrics such as relWQL and MASE do not predict negotiation outcomes at a statistically significant level. To isolate the causal structure, we substitute in synthetic forecasts with controlled bias and interval width. Under-prediction bias significantly improves outcomes for agents that react more to the forecasts---dose-response slopes -0.387 and -0.416 (p<0.001). Interval width has no statistically significant effect at zero bias. These findings indicate that the direction of forecast bias and agent forecast-reactivity are more strongly associated with downstream outcomes than forecast accuracy. Vendster is fully customizable and released under CC BY-NC 4.0 at https://github.com/amazon-science/Vendster.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

Pre-training on large-scale datasets and then fine-tuning on downstream tasks have become a standard practice in deep learning. However, pre-training data often contain label noise that may adversely affect the generalization of the model. This paper aims to understand the nature of noise in pre-training datasets and to mitigate its impact on downstream tasks. More specifically, through extensive experiments of supervised pre-training models on synthetic noisy ImageNet-1K and YFCC15M datasets, we demonstrate that while slight noise in pre-training can benefit in-domain (ID) transfer performance, where the training and testing data share the same distribution, it always deteriorates out-of-domain (OOD) performance, where training and testing data distribution are different. We empirically verify that the reason behind is noise in pre-training shapes the feature space differently. We then propose a light-weight black-box tuning method (NMTune) to affine the feature space to mitigate the malignant effect of noise and improve generalization on both ID and OOD tasks, considering one may not be able to fully fine-tune or even access the pre-trained models. We conduct practical experiments on popular vision and language models that are pre-trained on noisy data for evaluation of our approach. Our analysis and results show the importance of this interesting and novel research direction, which we term Noisy Model Learning.

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Recent advances in deep learning have relied on large, labelled datasets to train high-capacity models. However, collecting large datasets in a time- and cost-efficient manner often results in label noise. We present a method for learning from noisy labels that leverages similarities between training examples in feature space, encouraging the prediction of each example to be similar to its nearest neighbours. Compared to training algorithms that use multiple models or distinct stages, our approach takes the form of a simple, additional regularization term. It can be interpreted as an inductive version of the classical, transductive label propagation algorithm. We thoroughly evaluate our method on datasets evaluating both synthetic (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100) and realistic (mini-WebVision, WebVision, Clothing1M, mini-ImageNet-Red) noise, and achieve competitive or state-of-the-art accuracies across all of them.

Time-series classifiers deployed in risk-sensitive domains must be (1) accurate, (2) interpretable, and (3) able to abstain when evidence is weak. Existing methods do not deliver all 3 at once, and the obstacle is structural, rather than logistical. Meaningful temporal patterns cannot be defined without knowing segment boundaries, yet meaningful boundaries cannot be placed without knowing which patterns to expect. Existing approaches break this circularity by using fixed windows or expert-annotated vocabularies, thereby sacrificing at least one of the 3 properties. We introduce ConceptTime, which closes the loop through a single self-supervised signal. A frozen probabilistic forecaster predicts a distribution over the next observation at every timestep of the sequence. We call the mismatch between its prediction and the realized signal the predictive surprise. This signal both locates segment boundaries and characterizes each resulting segment through the forecaster. Segments are thus grounded by how they behaved relative to expectation, not by what they look like. These summaries cluster into a vocabulary of dynamical regimes that we call concepts. A lightweight head classifies from the concept sequence, and the distance to the nearest concept yields reliability by design. Across 17 public benchmarks, ConceptTime is competitive with state-of-the-art black-box accuracy, beats every interpretable baseline, and retains near-98% accuracy on Epilepsy with 1% of labels. It further remains competitive with softmax, prototype-distance, and SHAP/TimeX/TimeX++ on OOD detection and deletion faithfulness, without a single annotation, language model call, or domain expert. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sachithx/ConceptTime.git.

The superiority of graph contrastive learning (GCL) has prompted its application to anomaly detection tasks for more powerful risk warning systems. Unfortunately, existing GCL-based models tend to excessively prioritize overall detection performance while neglecting robustness to structural imbalance, which can be problematic for many real-world networks following power-law degree distributions. Particularly, GCL-based methods may fail to capture tail anomalies (abnormal nodes with low degrees). This raises concerns about the security and robustness of current anomaly detection algorithms and therefore hinders their applicability in a variety of realistic high-risk scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, research on the robustness of graph anomaly detection to structural imbalance has received little scrutiny. To address the above issues, this paper presents a novel GCL-based framework named AD-GCL. It devises the neighbor pruning strategy to filter noisy edges for head nodes and facilitate the detection of genuine tail nodes by aligning from head nodes to forged tail nodes. Moreover, AD-GCL actively explores potential neighbors to enlarge the receptive field of tail nodes through anomaly-guided neighbor completion. We further introduce intra- and inter-view consistency loss of the original and augmentation graph for enhanced representation. The performance evaluation of the whole, head, and tail nodes on multiple datasets validates the comprehensive superiority of the proposed AD-GCL in detecting both head anomalies and tail anomalies.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

We propose generalized random forests, a method for non-parametric statistical estimation based on random forests (Breiman, 2001) that can be used to fit any quantity of interest identified as the solution to a set of local moment equations. Following the literature on local maximum likelihood estimation, our method considers a weighted set of nearby training examples; however, instead of using classical kernel weighting functions that are prone to a strong curse of dimensionality, we use an adaptive weighting function derived from a forest designed to express heterogeneity in the specified quantity of interest. We propose a flexible, computationally efficient algorithm for growing generalized random forests, develop a large sample theory for our method showing that our estimates are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian, and provide an estimator for their asymptotic variance that enables valid confidence intervals. We use our approach to develop new methods for three statistical tasks: non-parametric quantile regression, conditional average partial effect estimation, and heterogeneous treatment effect estimation via instrumental variables. A software implementation, grf for R and C++, is available from CRAN.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Implicit feedback data is extensively explored in recommendation as it is easy to collect and generally applicable. However, predicting users' preference on implicit feedback data is a challenging task since we can only observe positive (voted) samples and unvoted samples. It is difficult to distinguish between the negative samples and unlabeled positive samples from the unvoted ones. Existing works, such as Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR), sample unvoted items as negative samples uniformly, therefore suffer from a critical noisy-label issue. To address this gap, we design an adaptive sampler based on noisy-label robust learning for implicit feedback data. To formulate the issue, we first introduce Bayesian Point-wise Optimization (BPO) to learn a model, e.g., Matrix Factorization (MF), by maximum likelihood estimation. We predict users' preferences with the model and learn it by maximizing likelihood of observed data labels, i.e., a user prefers her positive samples and has no interests in her unvoted samples. However, in reality, a user may have interests in some of her unvoted samples, which are indeed positive samples mislabeled as negative ones. We then consider the risk of these noisy labels, and propose a Noisy-label Robust BPO (NBPO). NBPO also maximizes the observation likelihood while connects users' preference and observed labels by the likelihood of label flipping based on the Bayes' theorem. In NBPO, a user prefers her true positive samples and shows no interests in her true negative samples, hence the optimization quality is dramatically improved. Extensive experiments on two public real-world datasets show the significant improvement of our proposed optimization methods.

Existing feature filters rely on statistical pair-wise dependence metrics to model feature-target relationships, but this approach may fail when the target depends on higher-order feature interactions rather than individual contributions. We introduce Mutual Information Neural Estimation Regularized Vetting Algorithm (MINERVA), a novel approach to supervised feature selection based on neural estimation of mutual information between features and targets. We paramaterize the approximation of mutual information with neural networks and perform feature selection using a carefully designed loss function augmented with sparsity-inducing regularizers. Our method is implemented in a two-stage process to decouple representation learning from feature selection, ensuring better generalization and a more accurate expression of feature importance. We present examples of ubiquitous dependency structures that are rarely captured in literature and show that our proposed method effectively captures these complex feature-target relationships by evaluating feature subsets as an ensemble. Experimental results on synthetic and real-life fraud datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our method and its ability to perform exact solutions.

We study whether deterministic AI weather prediction (AIWP) models issue more informative forecasts for extreme weather events than deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The deterministic model output is subjected to statistical post-processing via isotonic distributional regression (IDR), or EasyUQ, before the resulting probabilistic forecasts are assessed using weighted versions of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). This extends the Potential CRPS (PCRPS) measure proposed by Gneiting et al. (2026) to focus on extreme outcomes. Since IDR exhibits optimality properties with respect to weighted versions of the CRPS, the proposed approach inherits desirable properties of the PCRPS, and, in particular, facilitates fair comparisons between data-driven and physics-based models when forecasting extreme weather events. We apply this evaluation framework to forecasts in the WeatherBench 2 dataset issued by the AIWP models GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, and FuXi, with the ECMWF's high-resolution NWP model serving as a physics-based reference. The forecast models are compared when predicting mean sea level pressure, temperature, wind speed, and precipitation extremes, defined as exceedances or non-exceedances of thresholds obtained from historical observation data. We additionally study forecast performance when predicting record-breaking events, though the ordering of the different methods is largely insensitive to the thresholds on which emphasis is placed. We find that AIWP models, particularly FuXi, result in the most informative forecasts for extreme weather events across most settings, suggesting that AIWP models have the potential to outperform NWP models when forecasting extremes.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Anomaly detection is the task of identifying examples that do not behave as expected. Because anomalies are rare and unexpected events, collecting real anomalous examples is often challenging in several applications. In addition, learning an anomaly detector with limited (or no) anomalies often yields poor prediction performance. One option is to employ auxiliary synthetic anomalies to improve the model training. However, synthetic anomalies may be of poor quality: anomalies that are unrealistic or indistinguishable from normal samples may deteriorate the detector's performance. Unfortunately, no existing methods quantify the quality of auxiliary anomalies. We fill in this gap and propose the expected anomaly posterior (EAP), an uncertainty-based score function that measures the quality of auxiliary anomalies by quantifying the total uncertainty of an anomaly detector. Experimentally on 40 benchmark datasets of images and tabular data, we show that EAP outperforms 12 adapted data quality estimators in the majority of cases.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that are considered as entities of different types, which we call heterogeneous categorical events. Due to the lack of intrinsic distance measures among entities, and the exponentially large event space, most existing work relies heavily on heuristics to calculate abnormal scores for events. Different from previous work, we propose a principled and unified probabilistic model APE (Anomaly detection via Probabilistic pairwise interaction and Entity embedding) that directly models the likelihood of events. In this model, we embed entities into a common latent space using their observed co-occurrence in different events. More specifically, we first model the compatibility of each pair of entities according to their embeddings. Then we utilize the weighted pairwise interactions of different entity types to define the event probability. Using Noise-Contrastive Estimation with "context-dependent" noise distribution, our model can be learned efficiently regardless of the large event space. Experimental results on real enterprise surveillance data show that our methods can accurately detect abnormal events compared to other state-of-the-art abnormal detection techniques.

In many applications involving intelligent agents, the overwhelming volume of alerts (mostly false) generated by the agents may desensitize users and cause them to overlook critical issues, leading to the so-called ''alert fatigue''. A common strategy is to train a reflection model as a filter to intercept false alerts with labelled data collected from user verification feedback. However, a key challenge is the noisy nature of such data as it is often collected in production environments. As cleaning noise via manual annotation incurs high costs, this paper proposes a novel method ConceptRM for constructing a high-quality corpus to train a reflection model capable of effectively intercepting false alerts. With only a small amount of expert annotations as anchors, ConceptRM creates perturbed datasets with varying noise ratios and utilizes co-teaching to train multiple distinct models for collaborative learning. By analyzing the consensus decisions of these models, it effectively identifies reliable negative samples from a noisy dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that ConceptRM significantly enhances the interception of false alerts with minimal annotation cost, outperforming several state-of-the-art LLM baselines by up to 53.31% on in-domain datasets and 41.67% on out-of-domain datasets.

Time series forecasting uses historical data to predict future trends, leveraging the relationships between past observations and available features. In this paper, we propose RAFT, a retrieval-augmented time series forecasting method to provide sufficient inductive biases and complement the model's learning capacity. When forecasting the subsequent time frames, we directly retrieve historical data candidates from the training dataset with patterns most similar to the input, and utilize the future values of these candidates alongside the inputs to obtain predictions. This simple approach augments the model's capacity by externally providing information about past patterns via retrieval modules. Our empirical evaluations on ten benchmark datasets show that RAFT consistently outperforms contemporary baselines with an average win ratio of 86%.

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. sim40.2%to56.6%), validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

In this position paper, we argue that the classical evaluation on Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks using annotated benchmarks is in trouble. The worst kind of data contamination happens when a Large Language Model (LLM) is trained on the test split of a benchmark, and then evaluated in the same benchmark. The extent of the problem is unknown, as it is not straightforward to measure. Contamination causes an overestimation of the performance of a contaminated model in a target benchmark and associated task with respect to their non-contaminated counterparts. The consequences can be very harmful, with wrong scientific conclusions being published while other correct ones are discarded. This position paper defines different levels of data contamination and argues for a community effort, including the development of automatic and semi-automatic measures to detect when data from a benchmark was exposed to a model, and suggestions for flagging papers with conclusions that are compromised by data contamination.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

Because anomalous samples cannot be used for training, many anomaly detection and localization methods use pre-trained networks and non-parametric modeling to estimate encoded feature distribution. However, these methods neglect the impact of position and neighborhood information on the distribution of normal features. To overcome this, we propose a new algorithm, PNI, which estimates the normal distribution using conditional probability given neighborhood features, modeled with a multi-layer perceptron network. Moreover, position information is utilized by creating a histogram of representative features at each position. Instead of simply resizing the anomaly map, the proposed method employs an additional refine network trained on synthetic anomaly images to better interpolate and account for the shape and edge of the input image. We conducted experiments on the MVTec AD benchmark dataset and achieved state-of-the-art performance, with 99.56\% and 98.98\% AUROC scores in anomaly detection and localization, respectively.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.