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Aug 3

LazyEviction: Lagged KV Eviction with Attention Pattern Observation for Efficient Long Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit enhanced reasoning capabilities by employing Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, the extended reasoning sequences introduce significant GPU memory overhead due to increased key-value (KV) cache size, particularly in tasks requiring long reasoning sequences, such as mathematics and programming. Existing KV cache compression methods mitigate memory bottlenecks but struggle in long reasoning tasks. In this paper, we analyze attention patterns in reasoning tasks and reveal a Token Importance Recurrence phenomenon: a large proportion of tokens receive renewed attention after multiple decoding steps, which is failed to capture by existing works and may lead to unpredictable eviction on such periodically critical tokens. To address this, we propose LazyEviction, a lagged KV eviction framework designed to maintain reasoning performance while reducing KV memory. LazyEviction is an Observation Window-based Lagged Eviction Mechanism retaining latent recurring tokens by performing lagged evictions across decoding steps, which contains two key components: (1) Recurrence Interval Tracking for capturing temporal variations in token importance, and (2) an Maximum Recurrence Interval-Centric Eviction Policy that prioritizes eviction based on tokens' recurrence patterns. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LazyEviction reduces KV cache size by 50% while maintaining comparable accuracy on mathematics reasoning datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. Our findings highlight the importance of preserving recurring tokens, which are critical for maintaining knowledge continuity in multi-step reasoning tasks.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 18, 2025

Enhancing End Stage Renal Disease Outcome Prediction: A Multi-Sourced Data-Driven Approach

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 1, 2024

Dual Latent Memory in Vision-Language-Action Models for Robotic Manipulation

Mainstream Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models predict actions primarily from the current observation under a Markovian assumption, thus struggling with long-horizon, temporally dependent tasks. Existing memory-augmented VLAs either expand the observation window or retrieve history from the memory bank as auxiliary policy-side context. However, they leave memory outside the native latent embedding space of VLA reasoning, preventing historical experience from being fluidly interleaved with multimodal reasoning and action formation. To this end, we introduce LaMem-VLA, a latent-memory-native framework that reconstructs historical experience into latent memory tokens and directly interweaves them with VLA reasoning. At its core, LaMem-VLA introduces four coordinated components: (i) a curator that organizes historical experience into two complementary short-term and long-term memory vaults; (ii) a seeker that queries both vaults using the multimodal cognition to retrieve context-relevant evidence; (iii) a condenser that reconstructs the retrieved evidence into compact short-term and long-term latent memory tokens; and (iv) a weaver that injects these memory tokens with the current observation and instruction into one continuous embedding sequence. By representing, retrieving, and consuming historical experience entirely in the same continuous latent space, LaMem-VLA enables memory to directly participate in VLA reasoning and guide action generation under a bounded context. Extensive experiments on SimplerEnv and LIBERO demonstrate the superiority of our LaMem-VLA.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 7 2

Where Matters More Than What: Decoding-aligned KV Cache Compression via Position-aware Pseudo Queries

The Key-Value (KV) cache is crucial for efficient Large Language Models (LLMs) inference, but excessively long contexts drastically increase KV cache memory footprint. Existing KV cache compression methods typically rely on input-side attention patterns within a prompt observation window to estimate token importance during the prefill stage. They fail to preserve critical tokens for future generation since these assessments are not derived from the decoding process. Intuitively, an effective observation window should mirror the decoding-stage queries to accurately reflect which tokens the generation process will attend to. However, ground-truth decoding queries are inherently unavailable during inference. For constructing pseudo queries to approximate them, we find that positional information plays a more critical role than semantic content. Motivated by this insight, we propose decoding-aligned KV cache compression via position-aware pseudo queries (DapQ), a novel and lightweight eviction framework that leverages position-aware pseudo queries to simulate the output tokens, thereby establishing an effective observation window for importance assessment. It aligns closely with the actual generation context and enables precise token eviction. Extensive evaluations across multiple benchmarks and LLMs demonstrate that DapQ achieves superior performance, particularly under strict memory constraints (e.g., up to nearly lossless performance 99.5% on NIAH with 3% KV cache budgets).

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 11

Investment Portfolio Optimization Based on Modern Portfolio Theory and Deep Learning Models

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) along with two probabilistic deep learning models: DeepVAR and GPVAR to the task of one-day ahead multivariate forecasting. We then use these forecasts to optimize portfolios of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Our analysis presents results across different combinations of observation windows and rebalancing periods to compare performances of classical and deep learning variance-covariance estimation methods. The conclusions of the study are that although the strategies (portfolios) performance differed significantly between different combinations of parameters, generally the best results in terms of the information ratio and annualized returns are obtained using the LSTM-RNN models. Moreover, longer observation windows translate into better performance of the deep learning models indicating that these methods require longer windows to be able to efficiently capture the long-term dependencies of the variance-covariance matrix structure. Strategies with less frequent rebalancing typically perform better than these with the shortest rebalancing windows across all considered methods.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 19, 2025

ThinkJEPA: Empowering Latent World Models with Large Vision-Language Reasoning Model

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 23 2

Goal2Skill: Long-Horizon Manipulation with Adaptive Planning and Reflection

Recent vision-language-action (VLA) systems have demonstrated strong capabilities in embodied manipulation. However, most existing VLA policies rely on limited observation windows and end-to-end action prediction, which makes them brittle in long-horizon, memory-dependent tasks with partial observability, occlusions, and multi-stage dependencies. Such tasks require not only precise visuomotor control, but also persistent memory, adaptive task decomposition, and explicit recovery from execution failures. To address these limitations, we propose a dual-system framework for long-horizon embodied manipulation. Our framework explicitly separates high-level semantic reasoning from low-level motor execution. A high-level planner, implemented as a VLM-based agentic module, maintains structured task memory and performs goal decomposition, outcome verification, and error-driven correction. A low-level executor, instantiated as a VLA-based visuomotor controller, carries out each sub-task through diffusion-based action generation conditioned on geometry-preserving filtered observations. Together, the two systems form a closed loop between planning and execution, enabling memory-aware reasoning, adaptive replanning, and robust online recovery. Experiments on representative RMBench tasks show that the proposed framework substantially outperforms representative baselines, achieving a 32.4% average success rate compared with 9.8% for the strongest baseline. Ablation studies further confirm the importance of structured memory and closed-loop recovery for long-horizon manipulation.

  • 11 authors
·
Apr 14

You Only Need Minimal RLVR Training: Extrapolating LLMs via Rank-1 Trajectories

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a dominant paradigm for improving reasoning in large language models (LLMs), yet the underlying geometry of the resulting parameter trajectories remains underexplored. In this work, we demonstrate that RLVR weight trajectories are extremely low-rank and highly predictable. Specifically, we find that the majority of downstream performance gains are captured by a rank-1 approximation of the parameter deltas, where the magnitude of this projection evolves near-linearly with training steps. Motivated by this, we propose a simple and compute-efficient method RELEX (REinforcement Learning EXtrapolation), which estimates the rank-1 subspace from a short observation window and extrapolates future checkpoints via linear regression, with no learned model required. Across three models (i.e., Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, Qwen3-4B-Base, and Qwen3-8B-Base), RELEX produces checkpoints that match or exceed RLVR performance on both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks, requiring as few as 15% steps of full RLVR training. Remarkably, RELEX is able to extrapolate far beyond the observation window at no training cost, predicting checkpoints up to 10-20times beyond the observed prefix with continued improvement (e.g., observe only the first 50 steps and extrapolate to 1000 steps). Our ablation analysis confirms the minimalist sufficiency of RELEX: neither increasing the subspace rank nor employing non-linear modeling yields further gains in extrapolation. Finally, we show that RELEX's success stems from a "denoising" effect: by projecting updates onto the rank-1 subspace, the model discards stochastic optimization noise that would otherwise degrade performance during extrapolation. Our code is available at https://github.com/weizhepei/RELEX.

  • 6 authors
·
May 19 1

SnapKV: LLM Knows What You are Looking for Before Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) have made remarkable progress in processing extensive contexts, with the Key-Value (KV) cache playing a vital role in enhancing their performance. However, the growth of the KV cache in response to increasing input length poses challenges to memory and time efficiency. To address this problem, this paper introduces SnapKV, an innovative and fine-tuning-free approach that efficiently minimizes KV cache size while still delivering comparable performance in real-world applications. We discover that each attention head in the model consistently focuses on specific prompt attention features during generation. Meanwhile, this robust pattern can be obtained from an `observation' window located at the end of the prompts. Drawing on this insight, SnapKV automatically compresses KV caches by selecting clustered important KV positions for each attention head. Our approach significantly reduces the growing computational overhead and memory footprint when processing long input sequences. Specifically, SnapKV achieves a consistent decoding speed with a 3.6x increase in generation speed and an 8.2x enhancement in memory efficiency compared to baseline when processing inputs of 16K tokens. At the same time, it maintains comparable performance to baseline models across 16 long sequence datasets. Moreover, SnapKV can process up to 380K context tokens on a single A100-80GB GPU using HuggingFace implementation with minor changes, exhibiting only a negligible accuracy drop in the Needle-in-a-Haystack test. Further comprehensive studies suggest SnapKV's potential for practical applications.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 22, 2024 2

ZEST: Zero-shot Embodied Skill Transfer for Athletic Robot Control

Achieving robust, human-like whole-body control on humanoid robots for agile, contact-rich behaviors remains a central challenge, demanding heavy per-skill engineering and a brittle process of tuning controllers. We introduce ZEST (Zero-shot Embodied Skill Transfer), a streamlined motion-imitation framework that trains policies via reinforcement learning from diverse sources -- high-fidelity motion capture, noisy monocular video, and non-physics-constrained animation -- and deploys them to hardware zero-shot. ZEST generalizes across behaviors and platforms while avoiding contact labels, reference or observation windows, state estimators, and extensive reward shaping. Its training pipeline combines adaptive sampling, which focuses training on difficult motion segments, and an automatic curriculum using a model-based assistive wrench, together enabling dynamic, long-horizon maneuvers. We further provide a procedure for selecting joint-level gains from approximate analytical armature values for closed-chain actuators, along with a refined model of actuators. Trained entirely in simulation with moderate domain randomization, ZEST demonstrates remarkable generality. On Boston Dynamics' Atlas humanoid, ZEST learns dynamic, multi-contact skills (e.g., army crawl, breakdancing) from motion capture. It transfers expressive dance and scene-interaction skills, such as box-climbing, directly from videos to Atlas and the Unitree G1. Furthermore, it extends across morphologies to the Spot quadruped, enabling acrobatics, such as a continuous backflip, through animation. Together, these results demonstrate robust zero-shot deployment across heterogeneous data sources and embodiments, establishing ZEST as a scalable interface between biological movements and their robotic counterparts.

  • 28 authors
·
Jan 30

Beyond the Smile: A Hybrid Convolutional VAE for Crypto Volatility Surfaces

We present a convolutional variational autoencoder for cryptocurrency implied-volatility surfaces, together with a deployable predictor that combines it with a quadratic smile re-fit through a deterministic per-tenor routing rule. Trained on 6,034 fully-filled hourly Binance Options surfaces of BTC and ETH spanning May-October 2023 and parameterised on a common 6 times 7 tenor-delta grid, the model attains a hidden-cell surface-completion RMSE in the 0.94-1.56 vol-point range across both markets and mask rates 10-50%. The hybrid predictor attains 0.83 vol points at 50% masking against 7.00 for the smile re-fit alone, an eightfold reduction obtained at no additional inference cost. Under structurally-correlated hole patterns that emulate the withdrawal of an entire tenor of strikes, the smile re-fit incurs 9.6-13.1 vol points of error while the learned model remains at 1.5-1.9, isolating a regime in which the generative model is the only viable predictor. Joint training on BTC and ETH improves the in-distribution model on both markets by 9-27% relative to the better-performing single-symbol counterpart, indicating a substantially shared vol-surface manifold across the two largest cryptocurrencies over the observation window. The hybrid is calendar- and butterfly-arbitrage-free at the listed strikes, a property that the parametric smile re-fit alone fails at high mask rates. The per-snapshot reconstruction error of the trained model flags the late-October ETF-anticipation rally and the August 17, 2023 flash crash as elevated-error periods without supervision. All training and evaluation infrastructure is released to support reproducible follow-on work.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 14

Before It's Too Late: A State Space Model for the Early Prediction of Misinformation and Disinformation Engagement

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 6, 2025

Form Without Function: Agent Social Behavior in the Moltbook Network

Moltbook is a social network where every participant is an AI agent. We analyze 1,312,238 posts, 6.7~million comments, and over 120,000 agent profiles across 5,400 communities, collected over 40 days (January 27 to March 9, 2026). We evaluate the platform through three layers. At the interaction layer, 91.4% of post authors never return to their own threads, 85.6% of conversations are flat (no reply ever receives a reply), the median time-to-first-comment is 55 seconds, and 97.3% of comments receive zero upvotes. Interaction reciprocity is 3.3%, compared to 22-60% on human platforms. An argumentation analysis finds that 64.6% of comment-to-post relations carry no argumentative connection. At the content layer, 97.9% of agents never post in a community matching their bio, 92.5% of communities contain every topic in roughly equal proportions, and over 80% of shared URLs point to the platform's own infrastructure. At the instruction layer, we use 41 Wayback Machine snapshots to identify six instruction changes during the observation window. Hard constraints (rate limit, content filters) produce immediate behavioral shifts. Soft guidance (``upvote good posts'', ``stay on topic'') is ignored until it becomes an explicit step in the executable checklist. The platform also poses technological risks. We document credential leaks (API keys, JWT tokens), 12,470 unique Ethereum addresses with 3,529 confirmed transaction histories, and attack discourse ranging from template-based SSH brute-forcing to multi-agent offensive security architectures. These persist unmoderated because the quality-filtering mechanisms are themselves non-functional. Moltbook is a socio-technical system where the technical layer responds to changes, but the social layer largely fails to emerge. The form of social media is reproduced in full. The function is absent.

  • 12 authors
·
Mar 16

OpenClaw AI Agents as Informal Learners at Moltbook: Characterizing an Emergent Learning Community at Scale

Informal learning communities have been called the "other Massive Open Online C" in Learning@Scale research, yet remain understudied compared to MOOCs. We present the first empirical study of a large-scale informal learning community composed entirely of AI agents. Moltbook, a social network exclusively for AI agents powered by autonomous agent frameworks such as OpenClaw, grew to over 2.8 million registered agents in three weeks. Analyzing 231,080 non-spam posts across three phases of community evolution, we find three key patterns. First, participation inequality is extreme from the start (comment Gini = 0.889), exceeding human community benchmarks. Second, AI agents exhibit a "broadcasting inversion": statement-to-question ratios of 8.9:1 to 9.7:1 contrast sharply with the question-driven dynamics of human learning communities, and comment-level analysis of 1.55 million comments reveals a "parallel monologue" pattern where 93% of comments are independent responses rather than threaded dialogue. Third, we document a characteristic engagement lifecycle: explosive initial growth (184K posts from 32K authors in 11 days), a spam crisis (57,093 posts deleted by the platform), and engagement decline (mean comments: 31.7 -> 8.3 -> 1.7) that had not reversed by the end of our observation window despite effective spam removal. Sentiment analysis reveals a selection effect: comment tone becomes more positive as engagement declines, suggesting that casual participants disengage first while committed contributors remain. These findings have direct implications for hybrid human-AI learning platforms.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 20

FreeSwim: Revisiting Sliding-Window Attention Mechanisms for Training-Free Ultra-High-Resolution Video Generation

The quadratic time and memory complexity of the attention mechanism in modern Transformer based video generators makes end-to-end training for ultra high resolution videos prohibitively expensive. Motivated by this limitation, we introduce a training-free approach that leverages video Diffusion Transformers pretrained at their native scale to synthesize higher resolution videos without any additional training or adaptation. At the core of our method lies an inward sliding window attention mechanism, which originates from a key observation: maintaining each query token's training scale receptive field is crucial for preserving visual fidelity and detail. However, naive local window attention, unfortunately, often leads to repetitive content and exhibits a lack of global coherence in the generated results. To overcome this challenge, we devise a dual-path pipeline that backs up window attention with a novel cross-attention override strategy, enabling the semantic content produced by local attention to be guided by another branch with a full receptive field and, therefore, ensuring holistic consistency. Furthermore, to improve efficiency, we incorporate a cross-attention caching strategy for this branch to avoid the frequent computation of full 3D attention. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method delivers ultra-high-resolution videos with fine-grained visual details and high efficiency in a training-free paradigm. Meanwhile, it achieves superior performance on VBench, even compared to training-based alternatives, with competitive or improved efficiency. Codes are available at: https://github.com/WillWu111/FreeSwim

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

SWIFT: Prompt-Adaptive Memory for Efficient Interactive Long Video Generation

Streaming long-video generation faces a central challenge in continuous semantic switching, requiring adaptive memory to preserve coherent visual evolution. Current approaches rely on cache rebuilding at prompt boundaries or fixed memory budgets, but they introduce redundant computation and limit flexible semantic adaptation. This limitation arises from a mismatch between cached video history and prompt updates, as memory preserves visual continuity while prompt switches demand rapid semantic adaptation. Motivated by this observation, we present SWIFT, Semantic Windowing and Injection for Flexible Transitions, a training-free framework for multi-prompt long-video generation that enables efficient semantic switching while preserving temporal coherence in causal video diffusion models. SWIFT introduces a lightweight Semantic Injection Cache that augments cached video memory rather than reconstructing it from scratch at every prompt boundary. To avoid uniformly perturbing all attention channels, we further perform head-wise semantic injection, so that each attention head receives a prompt update proportional to its alignment with the current video state. In addition, we introduce an Adaptive Dynamic Window that allocates temporal memory according to prompt phase, using larger local context near switching boundaries and smaller windows during stable segments to reduce average inference cost. To preserve long-range semantic consistency under compressed local attention, we further maintain segment-level semantic anchors that summarize prompt-conditioned video history and reintroduce it as compact memory tokens. Compared with current state-of-the-art methods, SWIFT preserves generation quality while achieving 22.6 FPS on a single H100 GPU, establishing a substantially more efficient solution for multi-prompt long-video generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShanwenTan/SWIFT.

  • 7 authors
·
May 9

Stochastic Attention: Connectome-Inspired Randomized Routing for Expressive Linear-Time Attention

The whole-brain connectome of a fruit fly comprises over 130K neurons connected with a probability of merely 0.02%, yet achieves an average shortest path of only 4.4 hops. Despite being highly structured at the circuit level, the network's long-range connections are broadly distributed across brain regions, functioning as stochastic shortcuts that enable efficient global communication. Inspired by this observation, we propose Stochastic Attention (SA), a drop-in enhancement for sliding-window attention (SWA) that applies a random permutation to the token sequence before windowed attention and restores the original order afterward. This transforms the fixed local window into a stochastic global one within the same O(nw) per-layer budget. Through depth, independently sampled permutations yield exponentially growing receptive fields, achieving full sequence coverage in O(log_w n) layers versus O(n/w) for SWA. We validate SA in two settings: pre-training language models from scratch, where a gated SA + SWA combination achieves the best average zero-shot accuracy, and training-free inference on Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-30B-A3B, where SA consistently outperforms SWA and matches or exceeds Mixture of Block Attention at comparable compute budgets. These results suggest that connectome-inspired stochastic routing is a practical primitive for improving the expressivity of efficient attention, complementary to existing linear and sparse approaches.

  • 2 authors
·
May 3

Sparse Forcing: Native Trainable Sparse Attention for Real-time Autoregressive Diffusion Video Generation

We introduce Sparse Forcing, a training-and-inference paradigm for autoregressive video diffusion models that improves long-horizon generation quality while reducing decoding latency. Sparse Forcing is motivated by an empirical observation in autoregressive diffusion rollouts: attention concentrates on a persistent subset of salient visual blocks, forming an implicit spatiotemporal memory in the KV cache, and exhibits a locally structured block-sparse pattern within sliding windows. Building on this observation, we propose a trainable native sparsity mechanism that learns to compress, preserve, and update these persistent blocks while restricting computation within each local window to a dynamically selected local neighborhood. To make the approach practical at scale for both training and inference, we further propose Persistent Block-Sparse Attention (PBSA), an efficient GPU kernel that accelerates sparse attention and memory updates for low-latency, memory-efficient decoding. Experiments show that Sparse Forcing improves the VBench score by +0.26 over Self-Forcing on 5-second text-to-video generation while delivering a 1.11-1.17x decoding speedup and 42% lower peak KV-cache footprint. The gains are more pronounced on longer-horizon rollouts, delivering improved visual quality with +0.68 and +2.74 VBench improvements, and 1.22x and 1.27x speedups on 20-second and 1-minute generations, respectively.

  • 10 authors
·
Apr 22

Fuxi-DA: A Generalized Deep Learning Data Assimilation Framework for Assimilating Satellite Observations

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the development of an efficient DA system poses significant challenges, particularly in establishing intricate relationships between the background data and the vast amount of multi-source observation data within limited time windows in operational settings. To address these challenges, researchers design complex pre-processing methods for each observation type, leveraging approximate modeling and the power of super-computing clusters to expedite solutions. The emergence of deep learning (DL) models has been a game-changer, offering unified multi-modal modeling, enhanced nonlinear representation capabilities, and superior parallelization. These advantages have spurred efforts to integrate DL models into various domains of weather modeling. Remarkably, DL models have shown promise in matching, even surpassing, the forecast accuracy of leading operational NWP models worldwide. This success motivates the exploration of DL-based DA frameworks tailored for weather forecasting models. In this study, we introduces FuxiDA, a generalized DL-based DA framework for assimilating satellite observations. By assimilating data from Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) aboard Fengyun-4B, FuXi-DA consistently mitigates analysis errors and significantly improves forecast performance. Furthermore, through a series of single-observation experiments, Fuxi-DA has been validated against established atmospheric physics, demonstrating its consistency and reliability.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 12, 2024

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) VI: The colour evolution of galaxies z=5-15

With its exquisite sensitivity, wavelength coverage, and spatial and spectral resolution, the James Webb Space Telescope is poised to revolutionise our view of the distant, high-redshift (z>5) Universe. While Webb's spectroscopic observations will be transformative for the field, photometric observations play a key role in identifying distant objects and providing more comprehensive samples than accessible to spectroscopy alone. In addition to identifying objects, photometric observations can also be used to infer physical properties and thus be used to constrain galaxy formation models. However, inferred physical properties from broadband photometric observations, particularly in the absence of spectroscopic redshifts, often have large uncertainties. With the development of new tools for forward modelling simulations it is now routinely possible to predict observational quantities, enabling a direct comparison with observations. With this in mind, in this work, we make predictions for the colour evolution of galaxies at z=5-15 using the FLARES: First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations cosmological hydrodynamical simulation suite. We predict a complex evolution, driven predominantly by strong nebular line emission passing through individual bands. These predictions are in good agreement with existing constraints from Hubble and Spitzer as well as some of the first results from Webb. We also contrast our predictions with other models in the literature: while the general trends are similar we find key differences, particularly in the strength of features associated with strong nebular line emission. This suggests photometric observations alone should provide useful discriminating power between different models.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 22, 2022

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects -- such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students -- receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We present a usage scenario and subjective feedback from observational studies with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 1, 2025

Integrating Earth Observation Data into Causal Inference: Challenges and Opportunities

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

RealICU: Do LLM Agents Understand Long-Context ICU Data? A Benchmark Beyond Behavior Imitation

Intensive care units (ICU) generate long, dense and evolving streams of clinical information, where physicians must repeatedly reassess patient states under time pressure, underscoring a clear need for reliable AI decision support. Existing ICU benchmarks typically treat historical clinician actions as ground truth. However, these actions are made under incomplete information and limited temporal context of the underlying patient state, and may therefore be suboptimal, making it difficult to assess the true reasoning capabilities of AI systems. We introduce RealICU, a hindsight-annotated benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs) under realistic ICU conditions, where labels are created after senior physicians review the full patient trajectory. We formulate four physician-motivated tasks: assess Patient Status, Acute Problems, Recommended Actions, and Red Flag actions that risk unsafe outcomes. We partition each trajectory with 30-min windows and release two datasets: RealICU-Gold with 930-window annotations from 94 MIMIC-IV patients, and RealICU-Scale with 11,862 windows extended by Oracle, a physician-validated LLM hindsight labeler. Existing LLMs including memory-augmented ones performed poorly on RealICU, exposing two failure modes: a recall-safety tradeoff for clinical recommendations, and an anchoring bias to early interpretations of the patient. We further introduce ICU-Evo to study structured-memory agents that improves long-horizon reasoning but does not fully eliminate safety failures. Together, RealICU provides a clinically grounded testbed for measuring and improving AI sequential decision-support in high-stakes care. Project page: https://chengzhi-leo.github.io/RealICU-Bench/

DeepGaze3.5-VL: Modeling Scanpaths via Autoregressive Token Prediction

Understanding human visual attention on a scene over time has applications in domains such as interface design and inferring cognitive states. Modeling visual scanpaths has historically relied on specialized architectures with hand-crafted priors. While these architectures can model fixation sequences, their rigid structural biases restrict easy extendability and flexible conditioning. For instance, integrating task-specific instructions or adapting to distinct viewer identities requires custom, disjoint architectural additions. We frame scanpath prediction purely as a discrete sequence modeling task. By mapping coordinates into a text vocabulary, we leverage the pretrained representations of Vision-Language Models. This framing absorbs diverse factors of variation: simple prompting allows for global conditioning, such as providing viewer identities to capture personalized biases, or task-specific objectives like visual search. The framework can also integrate per-fixation attributes, such as individual fixation durations, alongside spatial locations. The autoregressive alignment enables the scalable, exact computation of per-fixation log-likelihoods, directly equivalent to the commonly used Information Gain (IG) metric. Our model, DeepGaze3.5-VL, establishes a new state-of-the-art across multiple datasets, achieving 2.18 bits of IG on MIT1003, a 46% improvement over DeepGaze III. This advantage persists even when baselines use identical high-capacity vision encoders. Beyond predictive performance, our generative framework serves as a powerful computational tool for direct behavioral interventions, allowing for controlled in-silico simulations that would be experimentally difficult or impossible to conduct in vivo. We demonstrate this ability by performing controlled interventions on the durations of pre-saccadic fixations, recovering known oculomotor phenomena purely from data.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 1

DoTime: A Synthetic Benchmark Generator for Interventional and Counterfactual Time Series

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 28

Generative Regression Based Watch Time Prediction for Short-Video Recommendation

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

  • 9 authors
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Dec 28, 2024