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Nov 3

Coverage-centric Coreset Selection for High Pruning Rates

One-shot coreset selection aims to select a representative subset of the training data, given a pruning rate, that can later be used to train future models while retaining high accuracy. State-of-the-art coreset selection methods pick the highest importance examples based on an importance metric and are found to perform well at low pruning rates. However, at high pruning rates, they suffer from a catastrophic accuracy drop, performing worse than even random sampling. This paper explores the reasons behind this accuracy drop both theoretically and empirically. We first propose a novel metric to measure the coverage of a dataset on a specific distribution by extending the classical geometric set cover problem to a distribution cover problem. This metric helps explain why coresets selected by SOTA methods at high pruning rates perform poorly compared to random sampling because of worse data coverage. We then propose a novel one-shot coreset selection method, Coverage-centric Coreset Selection (CCS), that jointly considers overall data coverage upon a distribution as well as the importance of each example. We evaluate CCS on five datasets and show that, at high pruning rates (e.g., 90%), it achieves significantly better accuracy than previous SOTA methods (e.g., at least 19.56% higher on CIFAR10) as well as random selection (e.g., 7.04% higher on CIFAR10) and comparable accuracy at low pruning rates. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/haizhongzheng/Coverage-centric-coreset-selection.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 27, 2022

ONEBench to Test Them All: Sample-Level Benchmarking Over Open-Ended Capabilities

Traditional fixed test sets fall short in evaluating open-ended capabilities of foundation models. To address this, we propose ONEBench(OpeN-Ended Benchmarking), a new testing paradigm that consolidates individual evaluation datasets into a unified, ever-expanding sample pool. ONEBench allows users to generate custom, open-ended evaluation benchmarks from this pool, corresponding to specific capabilities of interest. By aggregating samples across test sets, ONEBench enables the assessment of diverse capabilities beyond those covered by the original test sets, while mitigating overfitting and dataset bias. Most importantly, it frames model evaluation as a collective process of selecting and aggregating sample-level tests. The shift from task-specific benchmarks to ONEBench introduces two challenges: (1)heterogeneity and (2)incompleteness. Heterogeneity refers to the aggregation over diverse metrics, while incompleteness describes comparing models evaluated on different data subsets. To address these challenges, we explore algorithms to aggregate sparse measurements into reliable model scores. Our aggregation algorithm ensures identifiability(asymptotically recovering ground-truth scores) and rapid convergence, enabling accurate model ranking with less data. On homogenous datasets, we show our aggregation algorithm provides rankings that highly correlate with those produced by average scores. We also demonstrate robustness to ~95% of measurements missing, reducing evaluation cost by up to 20x with little-to-no change in model rankings. We introduce ONEBench-LLM for language models and ONEBench-LMM for vision-language models, unifying evaluations across these domains. Overall, we present a technique for open-ended evaluation, which can aggregate over incomplete, heterogeneous sample-level measurements to continually grow a benchmark alongside the rapidly developing foundation models.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 9, 2024 2

Saturation Makes Quantization Error Additive: A Coverage Model with a Certificate

Mixed-precision quantization must decide which parts of a model to keep at higher precision. A common premise, shared by sensitivity-based methods such as HAWQ and CoopQ, is that the loss from quantizing a set of layers can be reconstructed from per-layer or pairwise sensitivities measured in isolation. We test this premise at the 4-bit weight-and-activation precisions now being deployed, treating the change in loss f(S) from quantizing a layer set S as a set function on the Boolean cube and analyzing it through two classical changes of basis. This analysis yields two findings. First, across configurations drawn from the deployment distribution, 85--93\% of the variance of f is explained by per-layer effects alone. Second, a monotone transform of a sum of per-layer terms reproduces f's ranking of configurations, misordering at most 2\% of pairs. We propose the coverage model f(S)=cbigl(1-prod_{iin S}(1-a_i)bigr), which reproduces the measured variance profile of f to within a few percent from its L fitted break-rates. This structure supports two predictors of a configuration's loss, each with L+1 parameters. The additive model is the optimal first-order predictor. By Parseval's identity its mean-squared error equals the variance of f left unexplained by per-layer effects, which we measure on full lattices, estimate out of sample at full-network scale, and report with every result as a certificate of how well any additive model can do. The coverage model itself is the second predictor. As allocators at matched memory, they attain the lowest KL divergence among the compared allocators on models from 30B to 355B parameters. Below four bits, the resulting allocations continue to solve code and reasoning tasks at budgets where allocations from gradient sensitivities no longer produce terminating generations.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 13

When Does Combining Language Models Help? A Co-Failure Ceiling on Routing, Voting, and Mixture-of-Agents Across 67 Frontier Models

Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.

Kaikaku Kaikaku
·
Jun 24 3

ShiftNAS: Improving One-shot NAS via Probability Shift

One-shot Neural architecture search (One-shot NAS) has been proposed as a time-efficient approach to obtain optimal subnet architectures and weights under different complexity cases by training only once. However, the subnet performance obtained by weight sharing is often inferior to the performance achieved by retraining. In this paper, we investigate the performance gap and attribute it to the use of uniform sampling, which is a common approach in supernet training. Uniform sampling concentrates training resources on subnets with intermediate computational resources, which are sampled with high probability. However, subnets with different complexity regions require different optimal training strategies for optimal performance. To address the problem of uniform sampling, we propose ShiftNAS, a method that can adjust the sampling probability based on the complexity of subnets. We achieve this by evaluating the performance variation of subnets with different complexity and designing an architecture generator that can accurately and efficiently provide subnets with the desired complexity. Both the sampling probability and the architecture generator can be trained end-to-end in a gradient-based manner. With ShiftNAS, we can directly obtain the optimal model architecture and parameters for a given computational complexity. We evaluate our approach on multiple visual network models, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and vision transformers (ViTs), and demonstrate that ShiftNAS is model-agnostic. Experimental results on ImageNet show that ShiftNAS can improve the performance of one-shot NAS without additional consumption. Source codes are available at https://github.com/bestfleer/ShiftNAS.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 17, 2023

Conditional Coverage Diagnostics for Conformal Prediction

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

  • 4 authors
·
May 28

Revisiting Neuron Coverage Metrics and Quality of Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural networks (DNN) have been widely applied in modern life, including critical domains like autonomous driving, making it essential to ensure the reliability and robustness of DNN-powered systems. As an analogy to code coverage metrics for testing conventional software, researchers have proposed neuron coverage metrics and coverage-driven methods to generate DNN test cases. However, Yan et al. doubt the usefulness of existing coverage criteria in DNN testing. They show that a coverage-driven method is less effective than a gradient-based method in terms of both uncovering defects and improving model robustness. In this paper, we conduct a replication study of the work by Yan et al. and extend the experiments for deeper analysis. A larger model and a dataset of higher resolution images are included to examine the generalizability of the results. We also extend the experiments with more test case generation techniques and adjust the process of improving model robustness to be closer to the practical life cycle of DNN development. Our experiment results confirm the conclusion from Yan et al. that coverage-driven methods are less effective than gradient-based methods. Yan et al. find that using gradient-based methods to retrain cannot repair defects uncovered by coverage-driven methods. They attribute this to the fact that the two types of methods use different perturbation strategies: gradient-based methods perform differentiable transformations while coverage-driven methods can perform additional non-differentiable transformations. We test several hypotheses and further show that even coverage-driven methods are constrained only to perform differentiable transformations, the uncovered defects still cannot be repaired by adversarial training with gradient-based methods. Thus, defensive strategies for coverage-driven methods should be further studied.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 31, 2021

ACAR: Adaptive Complexity Routing for Multi-Model Ensembles with Auditable Decision Traces

We present ACAR (Adaptive Complexity and Attribution Routing), a measurement framework for studying multi-model orchestration under auditable conditions. ACAR uses self-consistency variance (sigma) computed from N=3 probe samples to route tasks across single-model, two-model, and three-model execution modes. The system is implemented on top of TEAMLLM, a deterministic execution substrate with immutable artifacts and complete decision traces. We evaluate ACAR on 1,510 tasks spanning four benchmarks: MathArena, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench, and SuperGPQA, using Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.0 Flash, producing more than 7,550 auditable runs. Results show that sigma-based routing achieves 55.6 percent accuracy, exceeding the two-model baseline of 54.4 percent while avoiding full ensembling on 54.2 percent of tasks. The routing mechanism is model-agnostic and requires no learned components. We also document negative results. First, retrieval augmentation reduced accuracy by 3.4 percentage points, as median retrieval similarity was only 0.167, demonstrating that experience injection without semantic alignment introduces noise rather than grounding. Second, when models agree on incorrect answers (sigma equals zero), no downstream ensemble can recover; this agreement-but-wrong failure mode is intrinsic to self-consistency and bounds achievable accuracy at approximately eight percentage points below full ensembling. Third, attribution estimates based on proxy signals such as response similarity and entropy showed weak correlation with ground-truth leave-one-out values, indicating that practical attribution requires explicit counterfactual computation. This work documents which assumptions fail in practice and provides falsifiable baselines for future research on routing, retrieval, and multi-model attribution.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 6

Intervention anchors and scientific verification in synthetic vascular predictive representations

Complete orthogonal predictive coordinates do not by themselves bind a latent direction to a named intervention. We present a mathematical and synthetic audit motivated by vascular device-vessel suitcordance. Capacity-matched least-squares predictors were exactly equivalent under complete fixed output transforms, whereas an anchor-only observer recovered interpretations only within the span of known perturbation signatures. Six three-dimensional configurations across 64 seeds gave a maximum paired prediction discrepancy of 6.7e-15 but a median untransported edit error of 1.513. Coordinate transport removed that error. Noisy and weak anchors constrained calibration stability, and changing the representation basis required recalibration or verified transport. Across 256 additional fits in dimensions 3-24, prediction equivalence persisted within 4.0e-15. We then evaluated nine deliberate runnable fault classes across 64 seeds. All 576 faulty executions completed, but each violated at least one reconstruction, prediction, delivered-edit or scope contract; all 320 valid control records passed. Repeating a faulty implementation gave exact self-agreement despite error against the separately computed simulator expectation. For one omitted-direction defect, probe coverage followed its analytic law, and rank-aware abstention protected unsupported interpretations. Scalar-noise experiments exposed both missed weak faults and excessive rejection under narrow relative tolerances. These controls provide an executable separation of prediction, semantic support and scientific acceptance. They are synthetic numerical audits, not clinical validation, neural JEPA-Anything replication, agent learning or patient treatment-effect estimation.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 7

Inference Scaling scriptsizeFLaws: The Limits of LLM Resampling with Imperfect Verifiers

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 26, 2024

How Many Code and Test Cases Are Enough? Evaluating Test Cases Generation from a Binary-Matrix Perspective

Evaluating test cases automatically generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) is a critical yet challenging task. Existing benchmarks often evaluate the exclusion ratio on large, unstructured collections of wrong codes, suffering from high computational costs and score inflation. Furthermore, they inadvertently reward generators that detect common, trivial bugs, while failing to penalize their inability to identify rare yet critical faults. In this work, we connect two fundamental questions: (1) What is the minimal set of wrong codes sufficient to represent the entire error space? and (2) What is the minimal set of test cases needed to distinguish them? We introduce a novel framework that formalizes benchmark construction as finding an optimal diagnostic basis in a binary code-test matrix, where rows represent wrong codes and columns represent test case results. The rank of this matrix specifies the minimal number of independent error patterns (wrong codes) and provides a tight upper bound on the number of test cases required for complete fault coverage. Our objective is to identify a basis of size equal to the matrix rank that maximizes internal diversity. To tackle this NP-hard problem, we propose WrongSelect, an efficient approximation algorithm to select maximally diverse wrong codes. Applying this framework to millions of competitive programming submissions, we construct TC-Bench, a compact, diverse, and inflation-resistant benchmark. Extensive experiments show that even the most advanced test case generation methods achieve only ~60% exclusion rates on TC-Bench, exposing a significant gap in their diagnostic power and highlighting substantial room for future improvement. Our dataset is available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Luoberta/TC-Bench and our code is at: https://github.com/Luowaterbi/TC-Bench.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 9, 2025

Importance of Disjoint Sampling in Conventional and Transformer Models for Hyperspectral Image Classification

Disjoint sampling is critical for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. When training, validation, and test sets overlap or share data, it introduces a bias that inflates performance metrics and prevents accurate assessment of a model's true ability to generalize to new examples. This paper presents an innovative disjoint sampling approach for training SOTA models on Hyperspectral image classification (HSIC) tasks. By separating training, validation, and test data without overlap, the proposed method facilitates a fairer evaluation of how well a model can classify pixels it was not exposed to during training or validation. Experiments demonstrate the approach significantly improves a model's generalization compared to alternatives that include training and validation data in test data. By eliminating data leakage between sets, disjoint sampling provides reliable metrics for benchmarking progress in HSIC. Researchers can have confidence that reported performance truly reflects a model's capabilities for classifying new scenes, not just memorized pixels. This rigorous methodology is critical for advancing SOTA models and their real-world application to large-scale land mapping with Hyperspectral sensors. The source code is available at https://github.com/mahmad00/Disjoint-Sampling-for-Hyperspectral-Image-Classification.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 22, 2024

Safety-Flag: A Unified Benchmark for the Reliability and Calibration of LLM Content Moderators

Large language models are increasingly used for content moderation, but most evaluations still report aggregate accuracy on individual benchmarks. We introduce Safety-Flag, which places seven widely used safety benchmarks (BeaverTails, XSTest, Ethics, WildGuard, Aegis, ToxiChat, and ToxiGen) into a single balanced flag / do-not-flag protocol. We release item-level decisions and confidence scores for six general-purpose LLMs and four dedicated guards, together with three reference models, evaluated on the same items. Safety-Flag measures three dimensions of moderator reliability: error direction, probability calibration, and confidence-based error ranking for human review. They often disagree. Aggregate accuracy does not reveal error direction: one model flags 85% of benign content, whereas another misses 54% of harmful content. All six general-purpose models are overconfident; fitting one temperature per model reduces calibration error by 2.8--6.0times without changing predicted labels or confidence ordering. Confidence-based abstention lowers selective risk for every model, although the gains depend on how well confidence ranks errors. Dedicated guards produce fewer false alarms and are better calibrated, but several have higher miss rates outside their documented coverage. We release the benchmark, fixed item lists, evaluation code, per-item model outputs, and leaderboard at: https://github.com/yibo-hu-lab/safety-flag-benchmark.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 5

MEFLUT: Unsupervised 1D Lookup Tables for Multi-exposure Image Fusion

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for high-quality multi-exposure image fusion (MEF). We show that the fusion weights of an exposure can be encoded into a 1D lookup table (LUT), which takes pixel intensity value as input and produces fusion weight as output. We learn one 1D LUT for each exposure, then all the pixels from different exposures can query 1D LUT of that exposure independently for high-quality and efficient fusion. Specifically, to learn these 1D LUTs, we involve attention mechanism in various dimensions including frame, channel and spatial ones into the MEF task so as to bring us significant quality improvement over the state-of-the-art (SOTA). In addition, we collect a new MEF dataset consisting of 960 samples, 155 of which are manually tuned by professionals as ground-truth for evaluation. Our network is trained by this dataset in an unsupervised manner. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of all the newly proposed components, and results show that our approach outperforms the SOTA in our and another representative dataset SICE, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Moreover, our 1D LUT approach takes less than 4ms to run a 4K image on a PC GPU. Given its high quality, efficiency and robustness, our method has been shipped into millions of Android mobiles across multiple brands world-wide. Code is available at: https://github.com/Hedlen/MEFLUT.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 21, 2023

AmbiModBench: Benchmarking Gene Perturbation Prediction Beyond Shared Responses

Predicting cellular responses to genetic perturbations helps prioritize experiments in single-cell genomics, where exhaustive measurement is infeasible. While computational models increasingly predict these responses, three evaluation deficiencies obscure what their scores demonstrate. First, absolute metrics cannot separate target-specific predictions from a shared background response. Second, common metrics remain high under gene shuffling, so gene-level accuracy is never verified. Third, a score at one training size says nothing about coverage, which depends on representation-space proximity and response-constraining power. We propose AmbiModBench, a specificity-aware, gene-resolved and coverage-aware benchmark. It pairs every score with a training-mean reference fitted on the same split, screens each readout by gene-coordinate permutation, and links embedding distance to response variation. Across K562, RPE1 and Norman, strong absolute scores largely reflect shared background rather than target-specific learning. Widely used readouts track response magnitude distributions rather than the affected genes. Detectable gain follows representation-space coverage rather than training-set size. Nonetheless, on RPE1 the protocol yields a reproducible target-specific gain across five additional splits and three gene selections, which absolute scores alone cannot distinguish from shared background.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 25

Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 31, 2024

HuatuoGPT-3: RL-Only Domain Adaptation from Base Models

Domain adaptation aims to turn a general-purpose large language model (LLM) into an expert for a target domain. While the dominant SFT+RL pipeline offers a convenient cold start, it may reduce exploration diversity and introduces additional complexity through multi-stage optimization. These limitations motivate RL-only adaptation. However, pure on-policy RL suffers from a cold-start problem, while mixed-policy RL still falls short: informative tokens in teacher outputs are learned too slowly in early training, and stale teacher outputs can hinder later improvement. We identify these two failure modes as Gradient Starvation and Teacher-Distribution Anchoring. To address them, we propose One-stage Policy Optimization (OnePO), which treats teacher outputs as transient guidance for policy improvement. OnePO combines Adaptive Objective Evolution to strengthen learning on informative low-probability teacher tokens and Teacher Retirement to discard teacher outputs once the current policy can surpass them. On medical adaptation, OnePO achieves 67.2 on HealthBench (Total) with only 20K training samples, outperforming SFT+RL and pure RL by 2.7 and 7.4 points, respectively. We further scale OnePO to produce HuatuoGPT-3, an open-source medical LLM series whose 27B variant reaches 70.1 on HealthBench (Total) and 71.4 on HealthBench Professional, surpassing frontier models such as GPT-6 Astra. Models and code are available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/HuatuoGPT-3.

Conformal Segmentation in Industrial Surface Defect Detection with Statistical Guarantees

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 23, 2025

Beyond Compilation: Evaluating Faithful Natural-Language-to-Lean Statement Formalization

Lean verifies that a generated declaration is well typed, but cannot check whether it states what the user intended. We measure how far compilation overstates faithfulness in statement autoformalization without canonical Lean targets. Our criterion requires Lean compilation and agreement of two LLM judges from different model families. On an independent random audit, it agrees with the human majority on 91.5% of cases; it rarely accepts an unfaithful output but rejects some faithful ones. Across eight systems on 227 university-level statements, the gap between compiling and accepted outputs ranges from 1.3 to 29.5 percentage points: our tool-augmented agent compiles 87.2% of the statements, but only 57.7% are accepted. Human review of all the agent's rejections confirms that 23.8 of its 29.5 points are real translation errors. For the gaps of the seven one-shot systems, a two-stage review by Claude Opus 5.5 with Lean and GPT-6.1 Sol, validated on these human labels, finds that 78-100% are real translation errors for six of them. When GPT-5.2, one of the two judges, grades the translations of two models released after it, GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5, it accepts 83% of the statements for each, against 21% for one-shot GPT-5.2. For these two models, the same review classifies only 4 of their 54 rejections (7%) as translation errors, so most of their measured gap is judge errors rather than translation errors. This is consistent with these systems erring less while the judge does not: the fewer errors a system makes, the smaller the share of its rejections that are translation errors. Finally, a 2^3 tool ablation of the agent shows that Lean feedback drives most of its compilation gain, and that nearly half of this gain fails the semantic criterion. Code and data are available at https://github.com/grenadeComing/beyond-compilation.

ucriverside UC Riverside
·
Oct 14 2

Valid Per-Field Selective Risk Control for Document Extraction: Three Failure Modes, a Validity Ladder, and When Conditioning Pays

Per-field accept/review with selective risk at most alpha -- accept a field only if the error rate among accepted fields is controlled -- is the trust contract document-extraction systems need, and the natural procedure silently violates it on real documents. On 13,859 genuine claude-sonnet-5 fields from 800 CORD receipts (49.0% correct) we diagnose three failure modes: document clustering (design effect 1.84-2.45), score-refit leakage (coverage 0.416 at risk 0.127, violating alpha=0.10 in 95% of splits), and a tie-mass pathology (a degenerate score collapses the threshold grid, 0.030 to 0.001). We organize the fixes as a validity ladder, guarantee form stated per tier. A fit/val split protocol restores expected-selective-risk control for a learned fusion: coverage 0.318 at risk 0.096 at nominal alpha=0.10, no tolerance band (production variant 0.326) -- an on-average point whose realized risk exceeds alpha in 47.5% of resplits, not a certificate. Mondrian Learn-then-Test with exact binomial tails yields per-group PAC certificates: field-iid 0.171 at risk 0.068, cluster-corrected 0.140, doc-iid 0.060 -- the only tier matching documents, honestly near-vacuous today. Support-bin, the pre-specified provenance taxonomy, wins every rigor tier on the sonnet CORD capture (p<1e-4, Bonferroni-corrected) -- a win that does not replicate on the same documents under haiku or qwen -- while on higher-accuracy corpora pooled thresholds win: conditioning helps exactly where pooled cannot certify, subsumed by a learned score elsewhere. A frozen-configuration confirmation on selection-untouched claude-haiku-4-5 held at both risk levels, and a blind three-annotator human-gold audit verifies the practical tier's accepted-set risk at 1.3% against its 10% budget (Fleiss' kappa=0.83; labels err one-sidedly pessimistic). Released Apache-2.0 with seed-pinned, regression-gated procedures.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 27 2

Specification Before Generation: A Pre-Registered, Five-Model Paired Evaluation of a Specification Frame for LLM-Generated Code in Money, Time, Idempotency, and Access Tasks

Code generated by large language models passes security checks at a rate that has barely moved in four years. In regulated backends, the defect classes that matter most are money arithmetic, time handling, retry safety, and access control. Teams answer with instruction files, yet the largest controlled study of instruction files to date found no benefit. This paper tests a narrower idea: generated code improves when the prompt carries a specification, a fixed preamble stating what must be true of the result. We pre-registered hypotheses, refuters, analysis code, and a one-shot generation rule, then ran 50 realistic backend tasks from finance, healthcare, and insurance practice through five frontier models from five vendor lineages, each task twice: bare, and preceded by a 267-word filled specification frame. Nine deterministic AST-based checkers scored the outputs. The Bandit security scanner, which knows nothing of the frame, scored them independently. The frame reduced defects in all five models (mean reduction 0.16 to 0.70 findings per task, every Holm-adjusted sign test significant, every bootstrap confidence interval excluding zero). Where the arms differed, the frame arm won 95 of 100 times. It never made any model worse in any domain. Bandit found 53 medium-or-high issues in the bare arm and 11 in the frame arm, in the same direction for every model. The effect was largest where a model's unprompted defaults were weakest: the frame supplies the discipline a model lacks. All 500 outputs, prompts, checkers, scoring code, and the pre-registration are published with a DOI, so any team can re-derive the result without trusting the author.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 19 1

Learning to Detect Multi-class Anomalies with Just One Normal Image Prompt

Unsupervised reconstruction networks using self-attention transformers have achieved state-of-the-art performance for multi-class (unified) anomaly detection with a single model. However, these self-attention reconstruction models primarily operate on target features, which may result in perfect reconstruction for both normal and anomaly features due to high consistency with context, leading to failure in detecting anomalies. Additionally, these models often produce inaccurate anomaly segmentation due to performing reconstruction in a low spatial resolution latent space. To enable reconstruction models enjoying high efficiency while enhancing their generalization for unified anomaly detection, we propose a simple yet effective method that reconstructs normal features and restores anomaly features with just One Normal Image Prompt (OneNIP). In contrast to previous work, OneNIP allows for the first time to reconstruct or restore anomalies with just one normal image prompt, effectively boosting unified anomaly detection performance. Furthermore, we propose a supervised refiner that regresses reconstruction errors by using both real normal and synthesized anomalous images, which significantly improves pixel-level anomaly segmentation. OneNIP outperforms previous methods on three industry anomaly detection benchmarks: MVTec, BTAD, and VisA. The code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/gaobb/OneNIP.

  • 1 authors
·
May 14, 2025 2

Quantization Undoes Alignment: Bias Emergence in Compressed LLMs Across Models and Precision Levels

Large Language Models are routinely compressed via post-training quantization to reduce inference costs and memory footprint for cloud and edge deployment, yet the impact of this compression on model quality remains poorly understood. Existing studies typically compare only two conditions (full-precision vs. a single quantized variant), rely on aggregate bias metrics, and evaluate a single model family, making it impossible to distinguish gradual degradation from threshold-dependent safety failures. We conduct a controlled empirical study of three instruction-tuned models (Qwen2.5-7B, Mistral-7B, Phi-3.5-mini) at five precision levels (BF16 through 3-bit) on 12,148 BBQ bias benchmark items across 5 random seeds, totaling 911,100 inference records. Our results reveal that 3-bit quantization causes 6-21% of previously unbiased items to develop new stereotypical behaviors, following a clear dose-response pattern confirmed via logistic regression, while models' willingness to select "unknown" answers declines by 17.4%. Crucially, these item-level changes are invisible to standard quality metrics: perplexity increases by less than 0.5% at 8-bit and under 3% at 4-bit across all three models, yet 2.5-5.6% of items already develop new biases at 4-bit. These findings demonstrate that aggregate evaluation metrics systematically miss fairness-critical degradation, underscoring the need for quality-aware compression protocols that explicitly test for bias emergence before deployment.

  • 2 authors
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May 1

Optimal Unconstrained Self-Distillation in Ridge Regression: Strict Improvements, Precise Asymptotics, and One-Shot Tuning

Self-distillation (SD) is the process of retraining a student on a mixture of ground-truth labels and the teacher's own predictions using the same architecture and training data. Although SD has been empirically shown to often improve generalization, its formal guarantees remain limited. We study SD for ridge regression in unconstrained setting in which the mixing weight ξ may be outside the unit interval. Conditioned on the training data and without any distributional assumptions, we prove that for any squared prediction risk (including out-of-distribution), the optimally mixed student strictly improves upon the ridge teacher for every regularization level λ> 0 at which the teacher ridge risk R(λ) is nonstationary (i.e., R'(λ) neq 0). We obtain a closed-form expression for the optimal mixing weight ξ^star(λ) for any value of λ and show that it obeys the sign rule: sign(ξ^star(λ))=-sign(R'(λ)). In particular, ξ^star(λ) can be negative, which is the case in over-regularized regimes. To quantify the risk improvement due to SD, we derive exact deterministic equivalents for the optimal SD risk in the proportional asymptotics regime (where the sample and feature sizes n and p both diverge but their aspect ratio p/n converges) under general anisotropic covariance and deterministic signals. Our asymptotic analysis extends standard second-order ridge deterministic equivalents to their fourth-order analogs using block linearization, which may be of independent interest. From a practical standpoint, we propose a consistent one-shot tuning method to estimate ξ^star without grid search, sample splitting, or refitting. Experiments on real-world datasets and pretrained neural network features support our theory and the one-shot tuning method.

  • 3 authors
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Feb 18

Direction-Preserving Number Representations

Low-precision number formats are widely used in modern machine learning systems due to their efficiency. Accurate direction representation is key to the accuracy of vector operations. This work precisely explores the extent to which the direction of a vector can be represented by selecting its scalar elements from a common finite alphabet of a given size. This is standard practice in machine learning, where low-precision significands may be narrow-width floating-point or integer values. A geometric framework is introduced for analyzing the directional coverage of such product-structured codes. This work analytically quantifies the suboptimality gap between such product-structured codes and spherical codes for the vector as a whole, in both low and asymptotically high dimensions. Furthermore, within the product code class, it is proven that the standard formats of two's complement, fixed-point, and floating-point are suboptimal, again with quantified gap, pointing to the potential to develop new scalar number formats. Such scalar alphabets are numerically optimized across multiple block dimensions for directional coverage, including the dimension used in NVIDIA's NVFP4 format. Experimental results are presented comparing the performance of standard formats and the optimized alphabet. We find that for four bits, NVIDIA's choice of E2M1 closely approximates the optimized alphabet, providing a geometric explanation for its strong performance in low-precision machine learning workloads and an analytical understanding of the link between that superiority and block size. We provide open-source formal proofs in Lean for the theorems in this work, along with the experimental code and the optimized alphabets obtained.

  • 2 authors
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May 7

Precision Is Not Faithfulness: Coverage-Aware Evaluation of Grounded Generation with a Complete Oracle

Reference-free faithfulness metrics verify each atomic claim a model makes against ground truth, and are increasingly used to evaluate grounded generation. We show they share a blind spot: they measure only precision -- are the stated claims supported? -- and therefore reward abstention, since a model can score near-perfect faithfulness by saying almost nothing. We make this measurable using Formula 1 telemetry, a domain where strategic ground truth is derived deterministically and, crucially, completely: for each decision we know the full set of facts that mattered. This completeness -- absent in open-domain faithfulness benchmarks -- lets us measure recall (coverage of the relevant facts) exactly, alongside precision. On a multilingual (EN/ES/PT) benchmark of 7,253 decision instances spanning 150 races, the most precise frontier model covers under half of the relevant facts and ranks last by F1, so requiring coverage reorders the systems; the same effect reappears in a second complete-oracle domain (NOAA weather forecasts). A prompt ablation shows the low coverage is not an under-prompting artifact: explicitly asking models to be thorough does not close the gap. We pair faithfulness with coverage into a single score, validate the metric (controlled perturbation; agreement across a model-free regex extractor and a cross-family LLM extractor, system-level Spearman 1.0), and give a verifier-guided generation method that improves precision and recall without references. We release the benchmark, structured annotations, metric, baselines, and an interactive demo.

  • 1 authors
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Jun 7 6

Mahalanobis PatchCore: Covariance-Aware and Streaming-Compatible Industrial Anomaly Detection

Industrial visual anomaly detection is usually one-class: normal images are abundant, while defects are rare, heterogeneous, and often unavailable during system design. PatchCore-style retrieval suits this setting because it scores test images from a memory bank of normal patch features, but the standard Euclidean geometry ignores feature correlations and its offline construction materialises the full patch pool before subsampling. We introduce Mahalanobis PatchCore, a covariance-aware, streaming-compatible extension of PatchCore. Its artificial intelligence contribution is a retrieval detector that estimates a regularised covariance model in reduced feature space and whitens embeddings, so Euclidean nearest-neighbour search after transformation implements Mahalanobis retrieval. A bounded-memory, re-iterable training pipeline builds the memory bank without storing all normal patches at once, using incremental dimensionality reduction, online covariance estimation, and streaming aggregation. The engineering application is automated industrial inspection, where visual anomaly detection must remain accurate under practical memory limits. We evaluate the method on a public 15-category industrial anomaly-detection benchmark and three industrial datasets covering blow-fill-seal strip-ampoule meniscus inspection, amber-glass-ampoule bottom inspection, and lyophilised-cake vial inspection. Mahalanobis PatchCore preserves most offline PatchCore image-level performance on the public benchmark while reducing peak memory from 5.41 to 2.78 GB, and improves the selected industrial mean image area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.981 to 0.986.

  • 3 authors
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May 25

SimplexUQ: An Evaluation Framework and Benchmark for Conformal Uncertainty on Simplex-Valued Predictions

Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but a single calibration threshold can still spread that coverage unevenly, over-covering easy regions and under-covering hard ones. SimplexUQ is, to our knowledge, the first benchmark and reproducible protocol for measuring this allocation problem on simplex-valued predictions; it compares existing conformal wrappers rather than proposing a new one. Its task suite, SimplexTasks-12, combines six controlled synthetic regimes with six frozen-predictor real tasks spanning class probabilities, topic mixtures, spectral abundances, cell-type fractions, age distributions, and emotion mixtures. Each comparison fixes the predictor, score, and response-free stratification map, varies only the wrapper, and reports marginal coverage, worst-stratum coverage, max disparity, and within-task radius and compute. Global calibration can look valid while failing badly: on CIFAR-10 it attains 0.900 marginal coverage but only 0.542 in the worst entropy stratum, and Mondrian calibration raises that stratum to 0.886 while reducing max disparity from 0.358 to 0.022. No wrapper dominates, however. Under smooth synthetic heterogeneity, several repairs are competitive; fixed-map analyses show that rankings depend on the evaluation groups and protocol; and in a 12-task comparison, Mondrian has lower disparity on its single target partition for all 12 tasks, whereas BatchMVP has lower disparity over overlapping groups on five. These are empirical comparisons, not new coverage guarantees. A controlled predictor-bias sweep shows that removing predictor bias only partly reduces global-threshold disparity. We release task cards, result provenance, permitted derived arrays, and rebuild instructions, and treat wrapper selection as a diagnostic comparison rather than a universal ranking.

  • 3 authors
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Sep 29

UniVAD: A Training-free Unified Model for Few-shot Visual Anomaly Detection

Visual Anomaly Detection (VAD) aims to identify abnormal samples in images that deviate from normal patterns, covering multiple domains, including industrial, logical, and medical fields. Due to the domain gaps between these fields, existing VAD methods are typically tailored to each domain, with specialized detection techniques and model architectures that are difficult to generalize across different domains. Moreover, even within the same domain, current VAD approaches often follow a "one-category-one-model" paradigm, requiring large amounts of normal samples to train class-specific models, resulting in poor generalizability and hindering unified evaluation across domains. To address this issue, we propose a generalized few-shot VAD method, UniVAD, capable of detecting anomalies across various domains, such as industrial, logical, and medical anomalies, with a training-free unified model. UniVAD only needs few normal samples as references during testing to detect anomalies in previously unseen objects, without training on the specific domain. Specifically, UniVAD employs a Contextual Component Clustering (C^3) module based on clustering and vision foundation models to segment components within the image accurately, and leverages Component-Aware Patch Matching (CAPM) and Graph-Enhanced Component Modeling (GECM) modules to detect anomalies at different semantic levels, which are aggregated to produce the final detection result. We conduct experiments on nine datasets spanning industrial, logical, and medical fields, and the results demonstrate that UniVAD achieves state-of-the-art performance in few-shot anomaly detection tasks across multiple domains, outperforming domain-specific anomaly detection models. Code is available at https://github.com/FantasticGNU/UniVAD.

  • 6 authors
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Dec 4, 2024

SWE-Bench+: Enhanced Coding Benchmark for LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) in Software Engineering (SE) can offer assistance for coding. To facilitate a rigorous evaluation of LLMs in practical coding contexts, Carlos et al. introduced the SWE-bench dataset, which comprises 2,294 real-world GitHub issues and their corresponding pull requests, collected from 12 widely used Python repositories. Several impressive LLM-based toolkits recently are developed and evaluated on this dataset. However, a systematic evaluation of the quality of SWE-bench remains missing. In this paper, we addressed this gap by presenting an empirical analysis of the SWE-bench dataset. We conducted a manual screening of instances where SWEAgent + GPT-4 successfully resolved issues by comparing the model-generated patches with the actual pull requests. SWE-Agent+GPT-4 was at the top of SWE-bench leaderboard during the time of our study. Our analysis reveals some critical issues with the SWE-bench dataset: 1) 32.67% of the successful patches involve cheating as the solutions were directly provided in the issue report or the comments. We refer to as solution leakage problem. 2) 31.08% of the passed patches are suspicious patches due to weak test cases, i.e., the tests were not adequate to verify the correctness of a patch. When we filtered out these problematic issues, the resolution rate of SWE-Agent+GPT-4 dropped from 12.47% to 3.97%. We also observed that the same data quality issues also exist in the two variants of SWE-bench, i.e., SWE-bench Lite and SWE-Bench Verified. In addition, over 94% of the issues were created before LLM's knowledge cutoff dates, posing potential data leakage issues.

  • 6 authors
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Oct 9, 2024

BigNAS: Scaling Up Neural Architecture Search with Big Single-Stage Models

Neural architecture search (NAS) has shown promising results discovering models that are both accurate and fast. For NAS, training a one-shot model has become a popular strategy to rank the relative quality of different architectures (child models) using a single set of shared weights. However, while one-shot model weights can effectively rank different network architectures, the absolute accuracies from these shared weights are typically far below those obtained from stand-alone training. To compensate, existing methods assume that the weights must be retrained, finetuned, or otherwise post-processed after the search is completed. These steps significantly increase the compute requirements and complexity of the architecture search and model deployment. In this work, we propose BigNAS, an approach that challenges the conventional wisdom that post-processing of the weights is necessary to get good prediction accuracies. Without extra retraining or post-processing steps, we are able to train a single set of shared weights on ImageNet and use these weights to obtain child models whose sizes range from 200 to 1000 MFLOPs. Our discovered model family, BigNASModels, achieve top-1 accuracies ranging from 76.5% to 80.9%, surpassing state-of-the-art models in this range including EfficientNets and Once-for-All networks without extra retraining or post-processing. We present ablative study and analysis to further understand the proposed BigNASModels.

  • 10 authors
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Mar 24, 2020

A Controlled Candidate-Set Benchmark for Offline Satellite-Security Plan Decomposition

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 28

QuantSightBench: Evaluating LLM Quantitative Forecasting with Prediction Intervals

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

  • 2 authors
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Apr 16

OneIG-Bench: Omni-dimensional Nuanced Evaluation for Image Generation

Text-to-image (T2I) models have garnered significant attention for generating high-quality images aligned with text prompts. However, rapid T2I model advancements reveal limitations in early benchmarks, lacking comprehensive evaluations, for example, the evaluation on reasoning, text rendering and style. Notably, recent state-of-the-art models, with their rich knowledge modeling capabilities, show promising results on the image generation problems requiring strong reasoning ability, yet existing evaluation systems have not adequately addressed this frontier. To systematically address these gaps, we introduce OneIG-Bench, a meticulously designed comprehensive benchmark framework for fine-grained evaluation of T2I models across multiple dimensions, including prompt-image alignment, text rendering precision, reasoning-generated content, stylization, and diversity. By structuring the evaluation, this benchmark enables in-depth analysis of model performance, helping researchers and practitioners pinpoint strengths and bottlenecks in the full pipeline of image generation. Specifically, OneIG-Bench enables flexible evaluation by allowing users to focus on a particular evaluation subset. Instead of generating images for the entire set of prompts, users can generate images only for the prompts associated with the selected dimension and complete the corresponding evaluation accordingly. Our codebase and dataset are now publicly available to facilitate reproducible evaluation studies and cross-model comparisons within the T2I research community.

  • 9 authors
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Jun 9, 2025 2

Teaching Agents to Code Reliably

Autonomous coding agents solve repository issues by reading code, running commands, editing files, and submitting patches. Extra inference-time compute yields gains only when it produces a useful repair and supplies reliable evidence for choosing one. Three behaviors decide both, and we argue they are teachable rather than byproducts of scale, so a policy can carry them instead of a scaffold. Location diversity remains narrow, since attempts return to the same site and extra samples add no coverage. Edit diversity is left unexploited, since methodologies that differ resolve complementary issues no single run reaches. Verification misleads, since a test the agent writes for its own patch accepts many incorrect ones. Directing search by execution feedback and scoring each patch against its own reverted tree resolves 52.8% of SWE-bench Verified using 48.1% of the agent-steps an eight-sample baseline spends. Training moves these behaviors into the policy. On the 270 issues held out from SFT and RL training, weighted supervised fine-tuning raises pass@1 from 31.9% to 35.2% and pass@8 from 46.7% to 51.1%. A reinforcement objective then trains the verifier against gold-labeled repairs and incorrect variants, crediting the assertions that detect them. It raises pass@1 to 43.0% and pass@8 to 60.7%, lifts verifier precision from 26.8% to 41.7%, and more than halves false acceptance. Resolution improves on two of three out-of-distribution suites and verifier precision on all three, and the gains hold at 7B, 14B, and 30B against published coder baselines.

  • 6 authors
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Oct 1

COLEP: Certifiably Robust Learning-Reasoning Conformal Prediction via Probabilistic Circuits

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

  • 4 authors
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Mar 17, 2024

How well are open sourced AI-generated image detection models out-of-the-box: A comprehensive benchmark study

As AI-generated images proliferate across digital platforms, reliable detection methods have become critical for combating misinformation and maintaining content authenticity. While numerous deepfake detection methods have been proposed, existing benchmarks predominantly evaluate fine-tuned models, leaving a critical gap in understanding out-of-the-box performance -- the most common deployment scenario for practitioners. We present the first comprehensive zero-shot evaluation of 16 state-of-the-art detection methods, comprising 23 pretrained detector variants (due to multiple released versions of certain detectors), across 12 diverse datasets, comprising 2.6~million image samples spanning 291 unique generators including modern diffusion models. Our systematic analysis reveals striking findings: (1)~no universal winner exists, with detector rankings exhibiting substantial instability (Spearman~ρ: 0.01 -- 0.87 across dataset pairs); (2)~a 37~percentage-point performance gap separates the best detector (75.0\% mean accuracy) from the worst (37.5\%); (3)~training data alignment critically impacts generalization, causing up to 20--60\% performance variance within architecturally identical detector families; (4)~modern commercial generators (Flux~Dev, Firefly~v4, Midjourney~v7) defeat most detectors, achieving only 18--30\% average accuracy; and (5)~we identify three systematic failure patterns affecting cross-dataset generalization. Statistical analysis confirms significant performance differences between detectors (Friedman test: χ^2=121.01, p<10^{-16}, Kendall~W=0.524). Our findings challenge the ``one-size-fits-all'' detector paradigm and provide actionable deployment guidelines, demonstrating that practitioners must carefully select detectors based on their specific threat landscape rather than relying on published benchmark performance.

  • 12 authors
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Feb 7

When the Specification Emerges: Benchmarking Faithfulness Loss in Long-Horizon Coding Agents

Current coding-agent benchmarks usually pro- vide the full task specification upfront. Real research coding often does not: the intended system is progressively disclosed through in- teraction, requiring the agent to track durable design commitments across a long session. We introduce a benchmark for this setting and study faithfulne Ss Loss U nder eM ergent s Pecification (SLUMP), defined as the reduc- tion in final implementation faithfulness un- der emergent specification relative to a single- shot specification control. The benchmark con- tains 20 recent ML papers (10 ICML 2025, 10 NeurIPS 2025), 371 atomic verifiable compo- nents, and interaction scripts of approximately 60 coding requests that progressively disclose the target design without revealing the paper itself. Final repositories are scored with a five-level component-faithfulness rubric and accompanied by an exposure audit to verify that scored components are recoverable from the visible interaction. Evaluated on Claude Code and Codex, the single-shot specification control achieves higher overall implementation fidelity on 16/20 and 14/20 papers, respectively. Structural integration degrades under emergent specification on both platforms, while seman- tic faithfulness loss is substantial on Claude Code and small on Codex. As a mitigation case study, we introduce ProjectGuard, an exter- nal project-state layer for specification tracking. On Claude Code, ProjectGuard recovers 90% of the faithfulness gap, increases fully faith- ful components from 118 to 181, and reduces severe failures from 72 to 49. These results identify specification tracking as a distinct eval- uation target for long-horizon coding agents.

  • 3 authors
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Mar 16