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Aug 12

Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

Social Life of Code: Modeling Evolution through Code Embedding and Opinion Dynamics

Software repositories provide a detailed record of software evolution by capturing developer interactions through code-related activities such as pull requests and modifications. To better understand the underlying dynamics of codebase evolution, we introduce a novel approach that integrates semantic code embeddings with opinion dynamics theory, offering a quantitative framework to analyze collaborative development processes. Our approach begins by encoding code snippets into high-dimensional vector representations using state-of-the-art code embedding models, preserving both syntactic and semantic features. These embeddings are then processed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, with data normalized to ensure comparability. We model temporal evolution using the Expressed-Private Opinion (EPO) model to derive trust matrices and track opinion trajectories across development cycles. These opinion trajectories reflect the underlying dynamics of consensus formation, influence propagation, and evolving alignment (or divergence) within developer communities -- revealing implicit collaboration patterns and knowledge-sharing mechanisms that are otherwise difficult to observe. By bridging software engineering and computational social science, our method provides a principled way to quantify software evolution, offering new insights into developer influence, consensus formation, and project sustainability. We evaluate our approach on data from three prominent open-source GitHub repositories, demonstrating its ability to reveal interpretable behavioral trends and variations in developer interactions. The results highlight the utility of our framework in improving open-source project maintenance through data-driven analysis of collaboration dynamics.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 17

3100 Opinions on Code Review in an AI World: Building Causal Theory from Practitioner Discourse

Coding agents now author entire pull requests, and practitioners sharply disagree about what this does to code review: whether it becomes the bottleneck, whether human review is still necessary, and whether it quietly erodes the understanding that it once built. Repository-mining studies measure surface trends but seldom explain the mechanisms beneath them, and the trends themselves prove unstable. A motivating observational analysis of public GITHUB activity finds that agent-authored pull requests are reviewed less often, merged several times faster, and discussed less than human-authored ones, yet the direction of these trends flips under different but equally defensible analysis choices, so the traces establish what is changing without explaining why. To recover the mechanisms, we synthesize practitioner discourse at scale into an explanatory theory: we collect 38,709 grey-literature documents (engineering blogs and Reddit threads), filter to those substantively about code review, and code a stratified random sample of 3,100 with an LLM-assisted pipeline, from which we build a causal model of 26 constructs and 67 relationships (64 directed, 3 contested). Its organizing claim is that review is the control point through which a coding agent's effect on software is decided, and that AI does not fix the sign of that effect: the team sets it, through the expertise its humans bring and how it structures the review process. The theory makes the competing positions explicit and turns "AI is changing code review" into falsifiable propositions with named constructs and moderators. As a secondary contribution, we offer the underlying LLM-assisted, grey-literature theory-building method as a scalable template for software-engineering research, with a public implementation.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 7

POSIM: A Multi-Agent Simulation Framework for Social Media Public Opinion Evolution and Governance

Modeling social media public opinion evolution is essential for governance decision-making. Traditional epidemic models and rule-based agent-based models (ABMs) fail to capture the cognitive processes and adaptive behaviors of real users. Recent large language model (LLM)-based social simulations can reproduce group-level phenomena like polarization and conformity, yet remain unable to recreate the irrational interactions and multi-phase dynamics of real public opinion events. We present POSIM (Public Opinion Simulator), a multi-agent simulation framework for social media public opinion evolution and governance. POSIM integrates LLM-driven agents with a Belief--Desire--Intention (BDI) cognitive architecture that accounts for irrational factors, places them in a virtual social media environment with social networks and recommendation mechanisms, and drives temporal dynamics through a Hawkes point process engine that captures the co-evolution of agents and the environment across event phases. To validate the framework, we collect real-world public opinion datasets from the Weibo platform covering the full interaction chain of users. Experiments show that POSIM successfully reproduces key characteristics of public opinion evolution from individual mechanisms to collective phenomena, and its effectiveness is further supported by multiple statistical metrics. Building on POSIM, governance-oriented guidance and intervention experiments uncover a counterintuitive empathy paradox: empathetic guidance deepens negative sentiment instead of easing it under certain conditions, offering new insights for governance strategy design. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework can fully serve as a computational experimentation platform for proactive strategy evaluation and evidence-based governance. All source code is available at https://github.com/DeepCogLab/posim/.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 24

Multi-source Heterogeneous Public Opinion Analysis via Collaborative Reasoning and Adaptive Fusion: A Systematically Integrated Approach

The analysis of public opinion from multiple heterogeneous sources presents significant challenges due to structural differences, semantic variations, and platform-specific biases. This paper introduces a novel Collaborative Reasoning and Adaptive Fusion (CRAF) framework that systematically integrates traditional feature-based methods with large language models (LLMs) through a structured multi-stage reasoning mechanism. Our approach features four key innovations: (1) a cross-platform collaborative attention module that aligns semantic representations while preserving source-specific characteristics, (2) a hierarchical adaptive fusion mechanism that dynamically weights features based on both data quality and task requirements, (3) a joint optimization strategy that simultaneously learns topic representations and sentiment distributions through shared latent spaces, and (4) a novel multimodal extraction capability that processes video content from platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou by integrating OCR, ASR, and visual sentiment analysis. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that CRAF achieves a tighter generalization bound with a reduction of O(sqrt(d log K / m)) compared to independent source modeling, where d is feature dimensionality, K is the number of sources, and m is sample size. Comprehensive experiments on three multi-platform datasets (Weibo-12, CrossPlatform-15, NewsForum-8) show that CRAF achieves an average topic clustering ARI of 0.76 (4.1% improvement over best baseline) and sentiment analysis F1-score of 0.84 (3.8% improvement). The framework exhibits strong cross-platform adaptability, reducing the labeled data requirement for new platforms by 75%.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 24

SOUL: Towards Sentiment and Opinion Understanding of Language

Sentiment analysis is a well-established natural language processing task, with sentiment polarity classification being one of its most popular and representative tasks. However, despite the success of pre-trained language models in this area, they often fall short of capturing the broader complexities of sentiment analysis. To address this issue, we propose a new task called Sentiment and Opinion Understanding of Language (SOUL). SOUL aims to evaluate sentiment understanding through two subtasks: Review Comprehension (RC) and Justification Generation (JG). RC seeks to validate statements that focus on subjective information based on a review text, while JG requires models to provide explanations for their sentiment predictions. To enable comprehensive evaluation, we annotate a new dataset comprising 15,028 statements from 3,638 reviews. Experimental results indicate that SOUL is a challenging task for both small and large language models, with a performance gap of up to 27% when compared to human performance. Furthermore, evaluations conducted with both human experts and GPT-4 highlight the limitations of the small language model in generating reasoning-based justifications. These findings underscore the challenging nature of the SOUL task for existing models, emphasizing the need for further advancements in sentiment analysis to address its complexities. The new dataset and code are available at https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/SOUL.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 27, 2023

AI-Augmented Surveys: Leveraging Large Language Models and Surveys for Opinion Prediction

Large language models (LLMs) that produce human-like responses have begun to revolutionize research practices in the social sciences. We develop a novel methodological framework that fine-tunes LLMs with repeated cross-sectional surveys to incorporate the meaning of survey questions, individual beliefs, and temporal contexts for opinion prediction. We introduce two new emerging applications of the AI-augmented survey: retrodiction (i.e., predict year-level missing responses) and unasked opinion prediction (i.e., predict entirely missing responses). Among 3,110 binarized opinions from 68,846 Americans in the General Social Survey from 1972 to 2021, our models based on Alpaca-7b excel in retrodiction (AUC = 0.86 for personal opinion prediction, rho = 0.98 for public opinion prediction). These remarkable prediction capabilities allow us to fill in missing trends with high confidence and pinpoint when public attitudes changed, such as the rising support for same-sex marriage. On the other hand, our fine-tuned Alpaca-7b models show modest success in unasked opinion prediction (AUC = 0.73, rho = 0.67). We discuss practical constraints and ethical concerns regarding individual autonomy and privacy when using LLMs for opinion prediction. Our study demonstrates that LLMs and surveys can mutually enhance each other's capabilities: LLMs can broaden survey potential, while surveys can improve the alignment of LLMs.

  • 2 authors
·
May 16, 2023

Revealing Fine-Grained Values and Opinions in Large Language Models

Uncovering latent values and opinions in large language models (LLMs) can help identify biases and mitigate potential harm. Recently, this has been approached by presenting LLMs with survey questions and quantifying their stances towards morally and politically charged statements. However, the stances generated by LLMs can vary greatly depending on how they are prompted, and there are many ways to argue for or against a given position. In this work, we propose to address this by analysing a large and robust dataset of 156k LLM responses to the 62 propositions of the Political Compass Test (PCT) generated by 6 LLMs using 420 prompt variations. We perform coarse-grained analysis of their generated stances and fine-grained analysis of the plain text justifications for those stances. For fine-grained analysis, we propose to identify tropes in the responses: semantically similar phrases that are recurrent and consistent across different prompts, revealing patterns in the text that a given LLM is prone to produce. We find that demographic features added to prompts significantly affect outcomes on the PCT, reflecting bias, as well as disparities between the results of tests when eliciting closed-form vs. open domain responses. Additionally, patterns in the plain text rationales via tropes show that similar justifications are repeatedly generated across models and prompts even with disparate stances.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 27, 2024 1

CaseSumm: A Large-Scale Dataset for Long-Context Summarization from U.S. Supreme Court Opinions

This paper introduces CaseSumm, a novel dataset for long-context summarization in the legal domain that addresses the need for longer and more complex datasets for summarization evaluation. We collect 25.6K U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) opinions and their official summaries, known as "syllabuses." Our dataset is the largest open legal case summarization dataset, and is the first to include summaries of SCOTUS decisions dating back to 1815. We also present a comprehensive evaluation of LLM-generated summaries using both automatic metrics and expert human evaluation, revealing discrepancies between these assessment methods. Our evaluation shows Mistral 7b, a smaller open-source model, outperforms larger models on most automatic metrics and successfully generates syllabus-like summaries. In contrast, human expert annotators indicate that Mistral summaries contain hallucinations. The annotators consistently rank GPT-4 summaries as clearer and exhibiting greater sensitivity and specificity. Further, we find that LLM-based evaluations are not more correlated with human evaluations than traditional automatic metrics. Furthermore, our analysis identifies specific hallucinations in generated summaries, including precedent citation errors and misrepresentations of case facts. These findings demonstrate the limitations of current automatic evaluation methods for legal summarization and highlight the critical role of human evaluation in assessing summary quality, particularly in complex, high-stakes domains. CaseSumm is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ChicagoHAI/CaseSumm

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 30, 2024

Topic-FlipRAG: Topic-Orientated Adversarial Opinion Manipulation Attacks to Retrieval-Augmented Generation Models

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems based on Large Language Models (LLMs) have become essential for tasks such as question answering and content generation. However, their increasing impact on public opinion and information dissemination has made them a critical focus for security research due to inherent vulnerabilities. Previous studies have predominantly addressed attacks targeting factual or single-query manipulations. In this paper, we address a more practical scenario: topic-oriented adversarial opinion manipulation attacks on RAG models, where LLMs are required to reason and synthesize multiple perspectives, rendering them particularly susceptible to systematic knowledge poisoning. Specifically, we propose Topic-FlipRAG, a two-stage manipulation attack pipeline that strategically crafts adversarial perturbations to influence opinions across related queries. This approach combines traditional adversarial ranking attack techniques and leverages the extensive internal relevant knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs to execute semantic-level perturbations. Experiments show that the proposed attacks effectively shift the opinion of the model's outputs on specific topics, significantly impacting user information perception. Current mitigation methods cannot effectively defend against such attacks, highlighting the necessity for enhanced safeguards for RAG systems, and offering crucial insights for LLM security research.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 3, 2025

Language Models And A Second Opinion Use Case: The Pocket Professional

This research tests the role of Large Language Models (LLMs) as formal second opinion tools in professional decision-making, particularly focusing on complex medical cases where even experienced physicians seek peer consultation. The work analyzed 183 challenging medical cases from Medscape over a 20-month period, testing multiple LLMs' performance against crowd-sourced physician responses. A key finding was the high overall score possible in the latest foundational models (>80% accuracy compared to consensus opinion), which exceeds most human metrics reported on the same clinical cases (450 pages of patient profiles, test results). The study rates the LLMs' performance disparity between straightforward cases (>81% accuracy) and complex scenarios (43% accuracy), particularly in these cases generating substantial debate among human physicians. The research demonstrates that LLMs may be valuable as generators of comprehensive differential diagnoses rather than as primary diagnostic tools, potentially helping to counter cognitive biases in clinical decision-making, reduce cognitive loads, and thus remove some sources of medical error. The inclusion of a second comparative legal dataset (Supreme Court cases, N=21) provides added empirical context to the AI use to foster second opinions, though these legal challenges proved considerably easier for LLMs to analyze. In addition to the original contributions of empirical evidence for LLM accuracy, the research aggregated a novel benchmark for others to score highly contested question and answer reliability between both LLMs and disagreeing human practitioners. These results suggest that the optimal deployment of LLMs in professional settings may differ substantially from current approaches that emphasize automation of routine tasks.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 27, 2024 2

On the Alignment of Large Language Models with Global Human Opinion

Today's large language models (LLMs) are capable of supporting multilingual scenarios, allowing users to interact with LLMs in their native languages. When LLMs respond to subjective questions posed by users, they are expected to align with the views of specific demographic groups or historical periods, shaped by the language in which the user interacts with the model. Existing studies mainly focus on researching the opinions represented by LLMs among demographic groups in the United States or a few countries, lacking worldwide country samples and studies on human opinions in different historical periods, as well as lacking discussion on using language to steer LLMs. Moreover, they also overlook the potential influence of prompt language on the alignment of LLMs' opinions. In this study, our goal is to fill these gaps. To this end, we create an evaluation framework based on the World Values Survey (WVS) to systematically assess the alignment of LLMs with human opinions across different countries, languages, and historical periods around the world. We find that LLMs appropriately or over-align the opinions with only a few countries while under-aligning the opinions with most countries. Furthermore, changing the language of the prompt to match the language used in the questionnaire can effectively steer LLMs to align with the opinions of the corresponding country more effectively than existing steering methods. At the same time, LLMs are more aligned with the opinions of the contemporary population. To our knowledge, our study is the first comprehensive investigation of the topic of opinion alignment in LLMs across global, language, and temporal dimensions. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/ku-nlp/global-opinion-alignment and https://github.com/nlply/global-opinion-alignment.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

Quality-Aware Image-Text Alignment for Opinion-Unaware Image Quality Assessment

No-Reference Image Quality Assessment (NR-IQA) focuses on designing methods to measure image quality in alignment with human perception when a high-quality reference image is unavailable. Most state-of-the-art NR-IQA approaches are opinion-aware, i.e. they require human annotations for training. This dependency limits their scalability and broad applicability. To overcome this limitation, we propose QualiCLIP (Quality-aware CLIP), a CLIP-based self-supervised opinion-unaware approach that does not require human opinions. In particular, we introduce a quality-aware image-text alignment strategy to make CLIP generate quality-aware image representations. Starting from pristine images, we synthetically degrade them with increasing levels of intensity. Then, we train CLIP to rank these degraded images based on their similarity to quality-related antonym text prompts. At the same time, we force CLIP to generate consistent representations for images with similar content and the same level of degradation. Our experiments show that the proposed method improves over existing opinion-unaware approaches across multiple datasets with diverse distortion types. Moreover, despite not requiring human annotations, QualiCLIP achieves excellent performance against supervised opinion-aware methods in cross-dataset experiments, thus demonstrating remarkable generalization capabilities. The code and the model are publicly available at https://github.com/miccunifi/QualiCLIP.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 17, 2024

Leveraging Domain Knowledge for Efficient Reward Modelling in RLHF: A Case-Study in E-Commerce Opinion Summarization

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become a dominating strategy in steering Language Models (LMs) towards human values/goals. The key to the strategy is employing a reward model ({varphi}) which can reflect a latent reward model with humans. While this strategy has proven to be effective, the training methodology requires a lot of human preference annotation (usually of the order of tens of thousands) to train {varphi}. Such large-scale preference annotations can be achievable if the reward model can be ubiquitously used. However, human values/goals are subjective and depend on the nature of the task. This poses a challenge in collecting diverse preferences for downstream applications. To address this, we propose a novel methodology to infuse domain knowledge into {varphi}, which reduces the size of preference annotation required. We validate our approach in E-Commerce Opinion Summarization, with a significant reduction in dataset size (just 940 samples) while advancing the state-of-the-art. Our contributions include a novel Reward Modelling technique, a new dataset (PromptOpinSumm) for Opinion Summarization, and a human preference dataset (OpinPref). The proposed methodology opens avenues for efficient RLHF, making it more adaptable to diverse applications with varying human values. We release the artifacts for usage under MIT License.

  • 11 authors
·
Feb 23, 2024

Towards Measuring the Representation of Subjective Global Opinions in Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) may not equitably represent diverse global perspectives on societal issues. In this paper, we develop a quantitative framework to evaluate whose opinions model-generated responses are more similar to. We first build a dataset, GlobalOpinionQA, comprised of questions and answers from cross-national surveys designed to capture diverse opinions on global issues across different countries. Next, we define a metric that quantifies the similarity between LLM-generated survey responses and human responses, conditioned on country. With our framework, we run three experiments on an LLM trained to be helpful, honest, and harmless with Constitutional AI. By default, LLM responses tend to be more similar to the opinions of certain populations, such as those from the USA, and some European and South American countries, highlighting the potential for biases. When we prompt the model to consider a particular country's perspective, responses shift to be more similar to the opinions of the prompted populations, but can reflect harmful cultural stereotypes. When we translate GlobalOpinionQA questions to a target language, the model's responses do not necessarily become the most similar to the opinions of speakers of those languages. We release our dataset for others to use and build on. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Anthropic/llm_global_opinions. We also provide an interactive visualization at https://llmglobalvalues.anthropic.com.

  • 18 authors
·
Jun 28, 2023

Exploring Semantic Feature Discrimination for Perceptual Image Super-Resolution and Opinion-Unaware No-Reference Image Quality Assessment

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been widely applied to image super-resolution (SR) to enhance the perceptual quality. However, most existing GAN-based SR methods typically perform coarse-grained discrimination directly on images and ignore the semantic information of images, making it challenging for the super resolution networks (SRN) to learn fine-grained and semantic-related texture details. To alleviate this issue, we propose a semantic feature discrimination method, SFD, for perceptual SR. Specifically, we first design a feature discriminator (Feat-D), to discriminate the pixel-wise middle semantic features from CLIP, aligning the feature distributions of SR images with that of high-quality images. Additionally, we propose a text-guided discrimination method (TG-D) by introducing learnable prompt pairs (LPP) in an adversarial manner to perform discrimination on the more abstract output feature of CLIP, further enhancing the discriminative ability of our method. With both Feat-D and TG-D, our SFD can effectively distinguish between the semantic feature distributions of low-quality and high-quality images, encouraging SRN to generate more realistic and semantic-relevant textures. Furthermore, based on the trained Feat-D and LPP, we propose a novel opinion-unaware no-reference image quality assessment (OU NR-IQA) method, SFD-IQA, greatly improving OU NR-IQA performance without any additional targeted training. Extensive experiments on classical SISR, real-world SISR, and OU NR-IQA tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 24, 2025

What Lives? A meta-analysis of diverse opinions on the definition of life

The question of "what is life?" has challenged scientists and philosophers for centuries, producing an array of definitions that reflect both the mystery of its emergence and the diversity of disciplinary perspectives brought to bear on the question. Despite significant progress in our understanding of biological systems, psychology, computation, and information theory, no single definition for life has yet achieved universal acceptance. This challenge becomes increasingly urgent as advances in synthetic biology, artificial intelligence, and astrobiology challenge our traditional conceptions of what it means to be alive. We undertook a methodological approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) to analyze a set of definitions of life provided by a curated set of cross-disciplinary experts. We used a novel pairwise correlation analysis to map the definitions into distinct feature vectors, followed by agglomerative clustering, intra-cluster semantic analysis, and t-SNE projection to reveal underlying conceptual archetypes. This methodology revealed a continuous landscape of the themes relating to the definition of life, suggesting that what has historically been approached as a binary taxonomic problem should be instead conceived as differentiated perspectives within a unified conceptual latent space. We offer a new methodological bridge between reductionist and holistic approaches to fundamental questions in science and philosophy, demonstrating how computational semantic analysis can reveal conceptual patterns across disciplinary boundaries, and opening similar pathways for addressing other contested definitional territories across the sciences.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 5, 2025