Daily Papers

Large language models have achieved near-expert performance in structured reasoning domains like mathematics and programming, yet their ability to perform compositional multi-hop reasoning in specialized scientific fields remains limited. We propose a bottom-up learning paradigm in which models are grounded in axiomatic domain facts and compose them to solve complex, unseen tasks. To this end, we present a post-training pipeline, based on a combination of supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning (RL), in which knowledge graphs act as implicit reward models. By deriving novel reward signals from knowledge graph paths, we provide verifiable, scalable, and grounded supervision that encourages models to compose intermediate axioms rather than optimize only final answers during RL. We validate this approach in the medical domain, training a 14B model on short-hop reasoning paths (1-3 hops) and evaluating its zero-shot generalization to complex multi-hop queries (4-5 hops). Our experiments show that path-derived rewards act as a "compositional bridge", enabling our model to significantly outperform much larger models and frontier systems like GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro, on the most difficult reasoning tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness of our approach to adversarial perturbations against option-shuffling stress tests. This work suggests that grounding the reasoning process in structured knowledge is a scalable and efficient path toward intelligent reasoning.

Laya answers typed multiple-choice questions in one forward pass by scoring a hidden state at one [MASK] marker per option. We re-engineer the checkpoint (421M parameters; a 2-layer option head with no positional tensor; a documented but unused parallel layout) and test whether the answer depends on where an option is listed. Presenting 951 Qwen-verified questions under every cyclic rotation of their options (or six random permutations for 12 options), the released checkpoint changes its answer for 25.8% [22.9-28.7] of questions (19.7% on the 605 English-language items alone); accuracy with the gold option first versus last differs by 10.1 points, and the flips concentrate where the model's own confidence is low (54% versus 8% across confidence terciles). Fine-tuning with Laya's trainer on 2,818 teacher-verified rows with option shuffling cuts the flip rate to 7.2%; the identical rows without shuffling give 11.4%, so shuffling is responsible for 4.2 points of the improvement. A confidence-weighted vote over orderings gives 69.7% against 69.1% for a single base pass at 4.1x the compute. Labels are LLM-made and the test sets are teacher-filtered. We also fine-tune with the authors' parallel layout on the same rows: flip rate 0.5%.

System One models answer typed questions in a single forward pass and promise the same answer for the same input. For choice questions, this promise fails: the answer depends on the order of the options, increasingly so as they grow in number, and averaging over their cyclic shifts reduces this dependence without removing it. Scoring each option alone, which the order cannot affect, shows that the order changes the answer mostly when the model is unsure among its top few options, even though the listwise answer looks confident. We therefore propose Runoff, which considers, then chooses: it scores each option alone to keep a few candidates, then compares them in listings where each candidate takes every position. It needs no training and can run in two forward passes, and its answer does not depend on the option order by construction. On two open models and five datasets, it changes no answer under shuffling, against 9.3% for cyclic averaging, and with 20 options it is about as accurate and three to four times faster. Wrapped around eight System One models, it removes the order dependence of the five benchmarks, while cyclic averaging changes up to 15.4%.

Reordering multiple-choice options can change a model's answer, an effect studied as selection bias (a preference for certain option letters) and as order sensitivity (changes in answers across option orderings). We connect these perspectives through the pooled selection-rate standard deviation (pooled SD), which measures how unevenly option letters are selected across questions and orderings. When every option of each question appears equally often at each position, the pooled SD is exactly the product of two label-free factors: the flip rate and the positional skew. The flip rate is the fraction of questions whose chosen option changes across orderings; the positional skew is the standard deviation of option-letter selection rates among those questions. Across 41 checkpoints and 12 benchmarks, the flip rate tracks accuracy and output uncertainty, while the positional skew tracks the estimated option-symbol prior. Prior correction for selection bias mainly reduces the positional skew. Aggregating each ordering with its reversal, a mitigation for order sensitivity, mainly reduces the flip rate. Both reduce the range of accuracy across correct-answer letters by similar amounts, but aggregation leaves fewer model-rank reversals. Applying prior correction before aggregation reduces both factors and further narrows this accuracy range. However, aggregation lowers the flip rate partly by settling questions on the same wrong option. We therefore recommend reporting both factors to distinguish mitigation effects, alongside accuracy to distinguish stability from correctness.

Let B_t(n) be the number of set partitions of a set of size~t into at most n parts and let B'_t(n) be the number of set partitions of {1,ldots, t} into at most n parts such that no part contains both 1 and~t or both i and i+1 for any i in {1,ldots,t-1}. We give two new combinatorial interpretations of the numbers B_t(n) and B'_t(n) using sequences of random-to-top shuffles, %that leave a deck of cards invariant, and sequences of box moves on the Young diagrams of partitions. Using these ideas we obtain a very short proof of a generalization of a result of Phatarfod on the eigenvalues of the random-to-top shuffle. We also prove analogous results for random-to-top shuffles that may flip certain cards. The proofs use the Solomon descent algebras of Types A, B and~D. We give generating functions and asymptotic results for all the combinatorial quantities studied in this paper.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Typed decision models are built for settings where model outputs are consumed directly by software. Instead of generating free-form text, they return a decision over a predefined set of options. By construction, every output conforms to the required schema. Yet this guarantee does not tell us whether the model interprets the options as intended. We study Jev and two Jev-like models with open weights by changing how option names are assigned to rubrics. Each option consists of an option name and a textual rubric that defines what the option means. We change only which option name is assigned to each rubric; the question, state, rubric wording, and set of option names remain exactly the same. On 1200 workflow decisions with task-specific rubrics, renaming the two options from 0/1 to no/yes changes 70.4 more answers per hundred (95% CI: [67.6, 73.1]) and shifts AUC from .94 to .23, revealing a systematic reversal in the decision ranking rather than simple uncertainty. The same operation has little effect with neutral option names. This pattern holds across all 4 predicates, where the effect is at least 7.4x larger than under the neutral control, and becomes stronger as the number of options increases. The effect also depends on the read-out geometry: a second model family that mean-pools over the full option span flips 4.1x less often. The hosted model exhibits the same behavior: the swap changes AUC from .8146 to .5806 and produces 24x as many answer flips as its test-retest floor. In contrast, replacing the option names with random character strings returns all model families to the neutral-control regime without reducing accuracy. The failure therefore depends on the semantic polarity of the option names rather than on the renaming operation itself. Across all conditions, the type-error rate remains 0%, even when decision accuracy degrades substantially.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

Experience replay is a key component in reinforcement learning for stabilizing learning and improving sample efficiency. Its typical implementation samples transitions with replacement from a replay buffer. In contrast, in supervised learning with a fixed dataset, it is a common practice to shuffle the dataset every epoch and consume data sequentially, which is called random reshuffling (RR). RR enjoys theoretically better convergence properties and has been shown to outperform with-replacement sampling empirically. To leverage the benefits of RR in reinforcement learning, we propose sampling methods that extend RR to experience replay, both in uniform and prioritized settings. We evaluate our sampling methods on Atari benchmarks, demonstrating their effectiveness in deep reinforcement learning.

Finite symmetric groups S_n are essential in fields such as combinatorics, physics, and chemistry. However, learning a probability distribution over S_n poses significant challenges due to its intractable size and discrete nature. In this paper, we introduce SymmetricDiffusers, a novel discrete diffusion model that simplifies the task of learning a complicated distribution over S_n by decomposing it into learning simpler transitions of the reverse diffusion using deep neural networks. We identify the riffle shuffle as an effective forward transition and provide empirical guidelines for selecting the diffusion length based on the theory of random walks on finite groups. Additionally, we propose a generalized Plackett-Luce (PL) distribution for the reverse transition, which is provably more expressive than the PL distribution. We further introduce a theoretically grounded "denoising schedule" to improve sampling and learning efficiency. Extensive experiments show that our model achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performances on solving tasks including sorting 4-digit MNIST images, jigsaw puzzles, and traveling salesman problems. Our code is released at https://github.com/DSL-Lab/SymmetricDiffusers.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

We propose a deep hedging framework for index option portfolios, grounded in a realistic market simulator that captures the joint dynamics of S&P 500 returns and the full implied volatility surface. Our approach integrates surface-informed decisions with multiple hedging instruments and explicitly accounts for transaction costs. The hedging strategy also considers the variance risk premium embedded in the hedging instruments, enabling more informed and adaptive risk management. Tested on a historical out-of-sample set of straddles from 2020 to 2023, our method consistently outperforms traditional delta-gamma hedging strategies across a range of market conditions.

In shuffle privacy, each user sends a collection of randomized messages to a trusted shuffler, the shuffler randomly permutes these messages, and the resulting shuffled collection of messages must satisfy differential privacy. Prior work in this model has largely focused on protocols that use a single round of communication to compute algorithmic primitives like means, histograms, and counts. We present interactive shuffle protocols for stochastic convex optimization. Our protocols rely on a new noninteractive protocol for summing vectors of bounded ell_2 norm. By combining this sum subroutine with mini-batch stochastic gradient descent, accelerated gradient descent, and Nesterov's smoothing method, we obtain loss guarantees for a variety of convex loss functions that significantly improve on those of the local model and sometimes match those of the central model.

Shuffle is one of the most expensive communication primitives in distributed data processing and is difficult to scale. Prior work addresses the scalability challenges of shuffle by building monolithic shuffle systems. These systems are costly to develop, and they are tightly integrated with batch processing frameworks that offer only high-level APIs such as SQL. New applications, such as ML training, require more flexibility and finer-grained interoperability with shuffle. They are often unable to leverage existing shuffle optimizations. We propose an extensible shuffle architecture. We present Exoshuffle, a library for distributed shuffle that offers competitive performance and scalability as well as greater flexibility than monolithic shuffle systems. We design an architecture that decouples the shuffle control plane from the data plane without sacrificing performance. We build Exoshuffle on Ray, a distributed futures system for data and ML applications, and demonstrate that we can: (1) rewrite previous shuffle optimizations as application-level libraries with an order of magnitude less code, (2) achieve shuffle performance and scalability competitive with monolithic shuffle systems, and break the CloudSort record as the world's most cost-efficient sorting system, and (3) enable new applications such as ML training to easily leverage scalable shuffle.

Randomized mechanisms can have good normative properties compared to their deterministic counterparts. However, randomized mechanisms are problematic in several ways such as in their verifiability. We propose here to derandomize such mechanisms by having agents play a game instead of tossing a coin. The game is designed so an agent's best action is to play randomly, and this play then injects ``randomness'' into the mechanism. This derandomization retains many of the good normative properties of the original randomized mechanism but gives a mechanism that is deterministic and easy, for instance, to audit. We consider three related methods to derandomize randomized mechanism in six different domains: voting, facility location, task allocation, school choice, peer selection, and resource allocation. We propose a number of novel derandomized mechanisms for these six domains with good normative properties. Each mechanism has a mixed Nash equilibrium in which agents play a modular arithmetic game with an uniform mixed strategy. In all but one mixed Nash equilibrium, agents report their preferences over the original problem sincerely. The derandomized methods are thus ``quasi-strategy proof''. In one domain, we additionally show that a new and desirable normative property emerges as a result of derandomization.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as an effective post-training paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language model (MLLM). However, current RL pipelines often suffer from training inefficiencies caused by two underexplored issues: Advantage Collapsing, where most advantages in a batch concentrate near zero, and Rollout Silencing, where the proportion of rollouts contributing non-zero gradients diminishes over time. These issues lead to suboptimal gradient updates and hinder long-term learning efficiency. To address these issues, we propose Shuffle-R1, a simple yet principled framework that improves RL fine-tuning efficiency by dynamically restructuring trajectory sampling and batch composition. It introduces (1) Pairwise Trajectory Sampling, which selects high-contrast trajectories with large advantages to improve gradient signal quality, and (2) Advantage-based Trajectory Shuffle, which increases exposure of valuable rollouts through informed batch reshuffling. Experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks show that our framework consistently outperforms strong RL baselines with minimal overhead. These results highlight the importance of data-centric adaptations for more efficient RL training in MLLM.

We introduce a novel approach for concept blending in pretrained text-to-image diffusion models, aiming to generate images at the intersection of multiple text prompts. At each time step during diffusion denoising, our algorithm forecasts predictions w.r.t. the generated image and makes informed text conditioning decisions. Central to our method is the unique analogy between diffusion models, which are rooted in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, and the Black-Scholes model for financial option pricing. By drawing parallels between key variables in both domains, we derive a robust algorithm for concept blending that capitalizes on the Markovian dynamics of the Black-Scholes framework. Our text-based concept blending algorithm is data-efficient, meaning it does not need additional training. Furthermore, it operates without human intervention or hyperparameter tuning. We highlight the benefits of our approach by comparing it qualitatively and quantitatively to other text based concept blending techniques, including linear interpolation, alternating prompts, step-wise prompt switching, and CLIP-guided prompt selection across various scenarios such as single object per text prompt, multiple objects per text prompt and objects against backgrounds. Our work shows that financially inspired techniques can enhance text-to-image concept blending in generative AI, paving the way for broader innovation. Code is available at https://github.com/divyakraman/BlackScholesDiffusion2024.

Card games are widely used to study sequential decision-making under uncertainty, with real-world analogues in negotiation, finance, and cybersecurity. These games typically fall into three categories based on the flow of control: strictly sequential (players alternate single actions), deterministic response (some actions trigger a fixed outcome), and unbounded reciprocal response (alternating counterplays are permitted). A less-explored but strategically rich structure is the bounded one-sided response, where a player's action briefly transfers control to the opponent, who must satisfy a fixed condition through one or more moves before the turn resolves. We term games featuring this mechanism Bounded One-Sided Response Games (BORGs). We introduce a modified version of Monopoly Deal as a benchmark environment that isolates this dynamic, where a Rent action forces the opponent to choose payment assets. The gold-standard algorithm, Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR), converges on effective strategies without novel algorithmic extensions. A lightweight full-stack research platform unifies the environment, a parallelized CFR runtime, and a human-playable web interface. The trained CFR agent and source code are available at https://monopolydeal.ai.

ufakzeka-karar is an open Turkish decision model with 182,494,466 parameters. Given a Turkish text and questions of a fixed answer type (a choice, a level on an ordered scale, or yes or no), it returns a temperature-scaled probability for every option and an expected error that serves as a "not sure" signal, without generating text and in one CPU forward pass for up to ten options. Built on the lab's ufakzeka-1-base, its head scores each option blind to the others at shared positions, so the answer does not depend on option order. A sequential head trained with shuffled options was about as accurate but changed 2.3 to 2.8 percent of its answers when only the option order changed; REINFORCE lost 10.2 points (0.102) of macro F1 to cross-entropy. On the open set of HakemBench v1.0 (4,275 questions, 7 tracks) the released model ranks 7th of 16 rows with a composite of 0.660 (95% interval 0.642 to 0.677). Temperature scaling lowers calibration error (smooth ECE) on the development set but raises it on held-out support questions, from 0.027 to 0.045 for the first scored run, which never trained on them; the released model later trained on them, so its 0.036 to 0.064 is not an unseen-question test. The released model is the last of three runs scored on HakemBench, and its numbers are not blind. The second run's new training data was aimed at the first run's errors on the full test set in guardrails, moderation and customer support, and the released run was trained after the second run's guardrail results on the full test set were read, under a protocol fixed in writing before any of its data, code or runs. All its numbers come after these readings; its guardrail, moderation and customer support numbers carry the flag "shaped by reading the test results". With every model scored on the other four tracks only, its composite is 0.678, 6th of 16. Weights and code are under Apache-2.0.

We introduce the concurrent shuffle model of differential privacy. In this model we have multiple concurrent shufflers permuting messages from different, possibly overlapping, batches of users. Similarly to the standard (single) shuffle model, the privacy requirement is that the concatenation of all shuffled messages should be differentially private. We study the private continual summation problem (a.k.a. the counter problem) and show that the concurrent shuffle model allows for significantly improved error compared to a standard (single) shuffle model. Specifically, we give a summation algorithm with error O(n^{1/(2k+1)}) with k concurrent shufflers on a sequence of length n. Furthermore, we prove that this bound is tight for any k, even if the algorithm can choose the sizes of the batches adaptively. For k=log n shufflers, the resulting error is polylogarithmic, much better than Theta(n^{1/3}) which we show is the smallest possible with a single shuffler. We use our online summation algorithm to get algorithms with improved regret bounds for the contextual linear bandit problem. In particular we get optimal O(n) regret with k= Omega(log n) concurrent shufflers.

Many poker systems, whether created with heuristics or machine learning, rely on the probability of winning as a key input. However calculating the precise probability using combinatorics is an intractable problem, so instead we approximate it. Monte Carlo simulation is an effective technique that can be used to approximate the probability that a player will win and/or tie a hand. However, without the use of a memory-intensive lookup table or a supercomputer, it becomes infeasible to run millions of times when training an agent with self-play. To combat the space-time tradeoff, we use deep learning to approximate the probabilities obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation with high accuracy. The learned model proves to be a lightweight alternative to Monte Carlo simulation, which ultimately allows us to use the probabilities as inputs during self-play efficiently. The source code and optimized neural network can be found at https://github.com/brandinho/Poker-Probability-Approximation

In recent years, there has been an emerging trend of combining two innovations in computer science and physics to achieve better computation capability. Exploring the potential of quantum computation to achieve highly efficient performance in various tasks is a vital development in engineering and a valuable question in sciences, as it has a significant potential to provide exponential speedups for technologically complex problems that are specifically advantageous to quantum computers. However, one key issue in unleashing this potential is constructing an efficient approach to load classical data into quantum states that can be executed by quantum computers or quantum simulators on classical hardware. Therefore, the split-step quantum walks (SSQW) algorithm was proposed to address this limitation. We facilitate SSQW to design parameterized quantum circuits (PQC) that can generate probability distributions and optimize the parameters to achieve the desired distribution using a variational solver. A practical example of implementing SSQW using Qiskit has been released as open-source software. Showing its potential as a promising method for generating desired probability amplitude distributions highlights the potential application of SSQW in option pricing through quantum simulation.

Binary options trading is often marketed as a field where predictive models can generate consistent profits. However, the inherent randomness and stochastic nature of binary options make price movements highly unpredictable, posing significant challenges for any forecasting approach. This study demonstrates that machine learning algorithms struggle to outperform a simple baseline in predicting binary options movements. Using a dataset of EUR/USD currency pairs from 2021 to 2023, we tested multiple models, including Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting, and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), both before and after hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, several neural network architectures, including Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP) and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, were evaluated under different training conditions. Despite these exhaustive efforts, none of the models surpassed the ZeroR baseline accuracy, highlighting the inherent randomness of binary options. These findings reinforce the notion that binary options lack predictable patterns, making them unsuitable for machine learning-based forecasting.

We introduce a novel approach to options trading strategies using a highly scalable and data-driven machine learning algorithm. In contrast to traditional approaches that often require specifications of underlying market dynamics or assumptions on an option pricing model, our models depart fundamentally from the need for these prerequisites, directly learning non-trivial mappings from market data to optimal trading signals. Backtesting on more than a decade of option contracts for equities listed on the S&P 100, we demonstrate that deep learning models trained according to our end-to-end approach exhibit significant improvements in risk-adjusted performance over existing rules-based trading strategies. We find that incorporating turnover regularization into the models leads to further performance enhancements at prohibitively high levels of transaction costs.

In reinforcement learning an agent interacts with the environment by taking actions and observing the next state and reward. When sampled probabilistically, these state transitions, rewards, and actions can all induce randomness in the observed long-term return. Traditionally, reinforcement learning algorithms average over this randomness to estimate the value function. In this paper, we build on recent work advocating a distributional approach to reinforcement learning in which the distribution over returns is modeled explicitly instead of only estimating the mean. That is, we examine methods of learning the value distribution instead of the value function. We give results that close a number of gaps between the theoretical and algorithmic results given by Bellemare, Dabney, and Munos (2017). First, we extend existing results to the approximate distribution setting. Second, we present a novel distributional reinforcement learning algorithm consistent with our theoretical formulation. Finally, we evaluate this new algorithm on the Atari 2600 games, observing that it significantly outperforms many of the recent improvements on DQN, including the related distributional algorithm C51.

Multiple-choice benchmarks are widely used to evaluate large language models, but MCQ scores conflate knowledge with sensitivity to option order, which makes them unreliable measures of model knowledge. In this paper, we test whether preventing a model from seeing option labels while committing to an answer removes positional influence and, in turn, improves performance. We evaluate two different strategies for mitigating bias. The first uses a generation-then-matching approach, and the second scores options in isolation, which is positionally unbiased by construction. Neither reliably improves accuracy. A complete decomposition shows that the bottleneck is withholding options, not the matching step. The only configuration that consistently matches the baseline is the one that shows the model all options paired with an LLM matcher. However, eliminating positional influence entirely still does not reliably yield accuracy gains, while cyclic permutation often improves them. For two-stage prompting, an aggregate measure of recall imbalance and a direct per-question measure of order sensitivity both fail to show reliable debiasing.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

In this paper we pursue the question of a fully online trading algorithm (i.e. one that does not need offline training on previously gathered data). For this task we use Double Deep Q-learning in the episodic setting with Fast Learning Networks approximating the expected reward Q. Additionally, we define the possible terminal states of an episode in such a way as to introduce a mechanism to conserve some of the money in the trading pool when market conditions are seen as unfavourable. Some of these money are taken as profit and some are reused at a later time according to certain criteria. After describing the algorithm, we test it using the 1-minute-tick data for Cardano's price on Binance. We see that the agent performs better than trading with randomly chosen actions on each timestep. And it does so when tested on the whole dataset as well as on different subsets, capturing different market trends.

We present a methodology to price options and portfolios of options on a gate-based quantum computer using amplitude estimation, an algorithm which provides a quadratic speedup compared to classical Monte Carlo methods. The options that we cover include vanilla options, multi-asset options and path-dependent options such as barrier options. We put an emphasis on the implementation of the quantum circuits required to build the input states and operators needed by amplitude estimation to price the different option types. Additionally, we show simulation results to highlight how the circuits that we implement price the different option contracts. Finally, we examine the performance of option pricing circuits on quantum hardware using the IBM Q Tokyo quantum device. We employ a simple, yet effective, error mitigation scheme that allows us to significantly reduce the errors arising from noisy two-qubit gates.

While plan-and-infill decoding in Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) shows promise for mathematical and code reasoning, performance remains highly sensitive to slot infilling order, often yielding substantial output variance. We introduce McDiffuSE, a framework that formulates slot selection as decision making and optimises infilling orders through Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). McDiffuSE uses look-ahead simulations to evaluate partial completions before commitment, systematically exploring the combinatorial space of generation orders. Experiments show an average improvement of 3.2% over autoregressive baselines and 8.0% over baseline plan-and-infill, with notable gains of 19.5% on MBPP and 4.9% on MATH500. Our analysis reveals that while McDiffuSE predominantly follows sequential ordering, incorporating non-sequential generation is essential for maximising performance. We observe that larger exploration constants, rather than increased simulations, are necessary to overcome model confidence biases and discover effective orderings. These findings establish MCTS-based planning as an effective approach for enhancing generation quality in MDMs.

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices, based on a recently proposed multi-scale analogue of the standard skewness and kurtosis called `Scattering Spectra'. This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness. Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility and allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S\&P500 that outperform both the current version of the Path-Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.

Stochastic optimization is one of the central problems in Machine Learning and Theoretical Computer Science. In the standard model, the algorithm is given a fixed distribution known in advance. In practice though, one may acquire at a cost extra information to make better decisions. In this paper, we study how to buy information for stochastic optimization and formulate this question as an online learning problem. Assuming the learner has an oracle for the original optimization problem, we design a 2-competitive deterministic algorithm and a e/(e-1)-competitive randomized algorithm for buying information. We show that this ratio is tight as the problem is equivalent to a robust generalization of the ski-rental problem, which we call super-martingale stopping. We also consider an adaptive setting where the learner can choose to buy information after taking some actions for the underlying optimization problem. We focus on the classic optimization problem, Min-Sum Set Cover, where the goal is to quickly find an action that covers a given request drawn from a known distribution. We provide an 8-competitive algorithm running in polynomial time that chooses actions and decides when to buy information about the underlying request.

We uncover how SGD interacts with batch normalization and can exhibit undesirable training dynamics such as divergence. More precisely, we study how Single Shuffle (SS) and Random Reshuffle (RR) -- two widely used variants of SGD -- interact surprisingly differently in the presence of batch normalization: RR leads to much more stable evolution of training loss than SS. As a concrete example, for regression using a linear network with batch normalization, we prove that SS and RR converge to distinct global optima that are "distorted" away from gradient descent. Thereafter, for classification we characterize conditions under which training divergence for SS and RR can, and cannot occur. We present explicit constructions to show how SS leads to distorted optima in regression and divergence for classification, whereas RR avoids both distortion and divergence. We validate our results by confirming them empirically in realistic settings, and conclude that the separation between SS and RR used with batch normalization is relevant in practice.

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

A typed decision is a choice among a fixed set of options, returned as a probability rather than as text. Systems that need typed decisions today use models trained for that purpose. This report describes AnyJev, which reads a typed decision from one prefill of a pretrained instruction-tuned language model. The readout restricts the next-token distribution at the answer position to the option tokens. It has two defects: the model assigns higher probability to some labels whatever the input, and to some positions in the option list. AnyJev corrects both with no gradient steps and no parameter changes: it divides out a label prior estimated from unlabelled inputs, and it averages log-probabilities over the K cyclic rotations of the option list. On two 20-option tasks the rotations lower the order-flip rate from 0.33 to 0.14 and from 0.33 to 0.18, and raise accuracy on 11 of 11 models on both. Reading every rotation requires K prefills. A stopping rule selected against the full-rotation decision on unlabelled states cuts that. Selecting the threshold on one unlabelled split and bounding its disagreement on a second, it reads 10.6 rotations of 18 at a verified 0.008 bound on two of four cells; selected and bounded on one split, as our serving run did, it reads 7.3 and serves 2.2 times as many decisions per second on vLLM. The code is open source.

Conventional models of matching markets assume that monetary transfers can clear markets by compensating for utility differentials. However, empirical patterns show that such transfers often fail to close structural preference gaps. This paper introduces a market microstructure framework that models matching decisions as a limit order book system with rigid bid ask spreads. Individual preferences are represented by a latent preference state matrix, where the spread between an agent's internal ask price (the unconditional maximum) and the market's best bid (the reachable maximum) creates a structural liquidity constraint. We establish a Threshold Impossibility Theorem showing that linear compensation cannot close these spreads unless it induces a categorical identity shift. A dynamic discrete choice execution model further demonstrates that matches occur only when the market to book ratio crosses a time decaying liquidity threshold, analogous to order execution under inventory pressure. Numerical experiments validate persistent slippage, regional invariance of preference orderings, and high tier zero spread executions. The model provides a unified microstructure explanation for matching failures, compensation inefficiency, and post match regret in illiquid order driven environments.

In this work, we introduce amortizing perpetual options (AmPOs), a fungible variant of continuous-installment options suitable for exchange-based trading. Traditional installment options lapse when holders cease their payments, destroying fungibility across units of notional. AmPOs replace explicit installment payments and the need for lapsing logic with an implicit payment scheme via the decay of the claimable notional. This amortization ensures all units evolve identically, preserving fungibility. We demonstrate that AmPO valuation can be reduced to an equivalent vanilla perpetual American option on a dividend-paying asset. This enables analytical expressions for the exercise boundaries and risk-neutral valuations for calls and puts. These formulas and relations allow us to derive the Greeks and study comparative statics with respect to the amortization rate. Illustrative numerical case studies demonstrate how the amortization rate shapes option behavior and reveal the resulting tradeoffs in the effective volatility sensitivity.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

System one models enable direct, low-latency decision-making. Yet recent practice of predicting an answer from serialized text does not, by itself, respect the structure of a decision problem. We argue that current designs underemphasize four important structural requirements. (i) null-aware: Models should distinguish answer absence from uncertainty among candidates; (ii) permutation-invariant: Reordering alternatives should not change the decision; (iii) option-scalable: Growing candidate sets should not require redefining the output space; (iv) cacheable: Request-independent computation over recurring alternatives should be reusable across requests. We introduce Jeva, a decision-native architecture that addresses these requirements jointly. A shared encoder independently represents the request and each option, while a compact decision stack refines only the request state against immutable option memory. Symmetric aggregation yields permutation-equivariant probabilities; shared scoring accommodates variable-size candidate sets. A separate coverage estimate distinguishes answer absence from candidate competition, enabling explicit null outcomes. Request-independent option representations and layer projections support reuse across newly assembled sets. These mechanisms unify Choice, Noul, and Score outputs. Across evaluations, Jeva combines strong typed-decision performance with near-perfect null detection and no decision flips under any tested permutations. It scales to thousands of candidates and substantially reduces latency through cross-request reuse without changing decisions.

Decision APIs that return a probability for each option are routinely used as if those probabilities were properties of the options themselves. That reading is valid only if the model satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA): adding an option that is neither the right answer nor its strongest rival should leave the odds between those two unchanged. We test this in a pre-registered study of jev-1.13.0, a hosted decision model, using 299,463 calls on intent classification (BANKING77, CLINC150) and topic classification (AG News). Every added option moves the log-odds between the gold label and the strongest wrong label: the root-mean-square systematic shift is 0.20-0.52 nats, 1.2 to 3 times the run-to-run variation, even when the added option takes at most 0.1% of the probability mass. The shifts are directional. An option similar to the wrong answer draws probability from it (+0.10 nats toward the gold label). A paraphrase of the wrong answer produces an intermediate pattern: the gold label's probability is almost conserved, but the paraphrase receives only about a third of the wrong answer's share rather than the half that strict substitution implies. The distortion grows steadily with the logarithm of the number of options, reaching about 1 nat at 255 options, and off-domain padding pushes the odds against the gold label. In contrast, questions packed into one call do not interact (bias < 0.001). Scoring each option with an independent yes/no question removes the option-set dependence but picks the right answer 8.7 points less often. Jev sits between two local baselines, an option-independent scorer and a prompt readout. Its probabilities are best read as relative to the option list they were computed over.

Deep learning datasets are expanding at an unprecedented pace, creating new challenges for data processing in model training pipelines. A crucial aspect of these pipelines is dataset shuffling, which significantly improves unbiased learning and convergence accuracy by adhering to the principles of random sampling. However, loading shuffled data for large datasets incurs significant overhead in the deep learning pipeline and severely impacts the end-to-end training throughput. To mitigate this, current deep learning systems often resort to partial dataset shuffling, sacrificing global randomness to maintain acceptable training throughput on large datasets, still leaving global shuffling efficiency issues not fully explored. In this work, we present RINAS, a data loading framework that systematically addresses the performance bottleneck of loading global shuffled datasets. Our key contribution is to offer an intra-batch unordered data fetching approach, which unleashes unexplored parallelism of data loading. We implement RINAS under the PyTorch framework for common dataset libraries HuggingFace and TorchVision. Our experimental results show that RINAS improves the throughput of general language model training and vision model training by up to 59% and 89%, respectively.

We study the discrete Bertrand pricing game with a non-increasing demand function. The game has n ge 2 players who simultaneously choose prices from the set {1/k, 2/k, ldots, 1}, where kinN. The player who sets the lowest price captures the entire demand; if multiple players tie for the lowest price, they split the demand equally. We study the Bertrand paradox, where classical theory predicts low prices, yet real markets often sustain high prices. To understand this gap, we analyze a repeated-game model in which firms set prices using no-regret learners. Our goal is to characterize the equilibrium outcomes that can arise under different no-regret learning guarantees. We are particularly interested in questions such as whether no-external-regret learners can converge to undesirable high-price outcomes, and how stronger guarantees such as no-swap regret shape the emergence of competitive low-price behavior. We address these and related questions through a theoretical analysis, complemented by experiments that support the theory and reveal surprising phenomena for no-swap regret learners.

Many problems, such as online ad display, can be formulated as online bipartite matching. The crucial challenge lies in the nature of sequentially-revealed online item information, based on which we make irreversible matching decisions at each step. While numerous expert online algorithms have been proposed with bounded worst-case competitive ratios, they may not offer satisfactory performance in average cases. On the other hand, reinforcement learning (RL) has been applied to improve the average performance, but it lacks robustness and can perform arbitrarily poorly. In this paper, we propose a novel RL-based approach to edge-weighted online bipartite matching with robustness guarantees (LOMAR), achieving both good average-case and worst-case performance. The key novelty of LOMAR is a new online switching operation which, based on a judicious condition to hedge against future uncertainties, decides whether to follow the expert's decision or the RL decision for each online item. We prove that for any rhoin[0,1], LOMAR is rho-competitive against any given expert online algorithm. To improve the average performance, we train the RL policy by explicitly considering the online switching operation. Finally, we run empirical experiments to demonstrate the advantages of LOMAR compared to existing baselines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Ren-Research/LOMAR

We consider cross-silo federated linear contextual bandit (LCB) problem under differential privacy, where multiple silos (agents) interact with the local users and communicate via a central server to realize collaboration while without sacrificing each user's privacy. We identify three issues in the state-of-the-art: (i) failure of claimed privacy protection and (ii) incorrect regret bound due to noise miscalculation and (iii) ungrounded communication cost. To resolve these issues, we take a two-step principled approach. First, we design an algorithmic framework consisting of a generic federated LCB algorithm and flexible privacy protocols. Then, leveraging the proposed framework, we study federated LCBs under two different privacy constraints. We first establish privacy and regret guarantees under silo-level local differential privacy, which fix the issues present in state-of-the-art algorithm. To further improve the regret performance, we next consider shuffle model of differential privacy, under which we show that our algorithm can achieve nearly ``optimal'' regret without a trusted server. We accomplish this via two different schemes -- one relies on a new result on privacy amplification via shuffling for DP mechanisms and another one leverages the integration of a shuffle protocol for vector sum into the tree-based mechanism, both of which might be of independent interest. Finally, we support our theoretical results with numerical evaluations over contextual bandit instances generated from both synthetic and real-life data.

This paper studies the use of randomized neural networks for the estimation of exposure profiles and unilateral CVA of American options within a Monte Carlo framework. The analysis is carried out separately under both Black-Scholes and Heston dynamics, combining American option valuation, expected exposure and potential future exposure estimation, and unilateral CVA calculation with portfolio netting effects. The numerical experiment compares this approach with the classical Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) used as a benchmark in both low-dimensional single-asset and high-dimensional multi-asset scenarios, and also includes a path convergence test and a sensitivity analysis. The results show that the randomized feedforward neural network approach preserves convergence to the LSM benchmark when it is extended from pricing to exposure and CVA estimation, while its main advantage appears in high-dimensional problems, where it scales more efficiently and leads to lower computational cost. These results support the use of randomized neural networks as a useful alternative for exposure and CVA estimation in high-dimensional American-style options.

Motivated by concerns about making online decisions that incur undue amount of risk at each time step, in this paper, we formulate the probably anytime-safe stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits problem. In this problem, the agent is given the option to select a subset of size at most K from a set of L ground items. Each item is associated to a certain mean reward as well as a variance that represents its risk. To mitigate the risk that the agent incurs, we require that with probability at least 1-delta, over the entire horizon of time T, each of the choices that the agent makes should contain items whose sum of variances does not exceed a certain variance budget. We call this probably anytime-safe constraint. Under this constraint, we design and analyze an algorithm {\sc PASCombUCB} that minimizes the regret over the horizon of time T. By developing accompanying information-theoretic lower bounds, we show that under both the problem-dependent and problem-independent paradigms, {\sc PASCombUCB} is almost asymptotically optimal. Experiments are conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our problem setup, the proposed {\sc PASCombUCB} algorithm, and novel analyses are applicable to domains such as recommendation systems and transportation in which an agent is allowed to choose multiple items at a single time step and wishes to control the risk over the whole time horizon.

We study a game between liquidity provider and liquidity taker agents interacting in an over-the-counter market, for which the typical example is foreign exchange. We show how a suitable design of parameterized families of reward functions coupled with shared policy learning constitutes an efficient solution to this problem. By playing against each other, our deep-reinforcement-learning-driven agents learn emergent behaviors relative to a wide spectrum of objectives encompassing profit-and-loss, optimal execution and market share. In particular, we find that liquidity providers naturally learn to balance hedging and skewing, where skewing refers to setting their buy and sell prices asymmetrically as a function of their inventory. We further introduce a novel RL-based calibration algorithm which we found performed well at imposing constraints on the game equilibrium. On the theoretical side, we are able to show convergence rates for our multi-agent policy gradient algorithm under a transitivity assumption, closely related to generalized ordinal potential games.

This paper explores the application of deep Q-learning to hedging at-the-money options on the S\&P~500 index. We develop an agent based on the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, trained to simulate hedging decisions without making explicit model assumptions on price dynamics. The agent was trained on historical intraday prices of S\&P~500 call options across years 2004--2024, using a single time series of six predictor variables: option price, underlying asset price, moneyness, time to maturity, realized volatility, and current hedge position. A walk-forward procedure was applied for training, which led to nearly 17~years of out-of-sample evaluation. The performance of the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agent is benchmarked against the Black--Scholes delta-hedging strategy over the same period. We assess both approaches using metrics such as annualized return, volatility, information ratio, and Sharpe ratio. To test the models' adaptability, we performed simulations across varying market conditions and added constraints such as transaction costs and risk-awareness penalties. Our results show that the DRL agent can outperform traditional hedging methods, particularly in volatile or high-cost environments, highlighting its robustness and flexibility in practical trading contexts. While the agent consistently outperforms delta-hedging, its performance deteriorates when the risk-awareness parameter is higher. We also observed that the longer the time interval used for volatility estimation, the more stable the results.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where dependent assets are mispriced, allowing for purchasing (or selling) a certain outcome for less than (or more than) 1, guaranteeing profit. This phenomenon, known as arbitrage, could enable sophisticated participants to exploit such inconsistencies. In this paper, we conduct an empirical arbitrage analysis on Polymarket data to answer three key questions: (Q1) What conditions give rise to arbitrage (Q2) Does arbitrage actually occur on Polymarket and (Q3) Has anyone exploited these opportunities. A major challenge in analyzing arbitrage between related markets lies in the scalability of comparisons across a large number of markets and conditions, with a naive analysis requiring O(2^{n+m}) comparisons. To overcome this, we employ a heuristic-driven reduction strategy based on timeliness, topical similarity, and combinatorial relationships, further validated by expert input. Our study reveals two distinct forms of arbitrage on Polymarket: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage, which occurs within a single market or condition, and Combinatorial Arbitrage, which spans across multiple markets. We use on-chain historical order book data to analyze when these types of arbitrage opportunities have existed, and when they have been executed by users. We find a realized estimate of 40 million USD of profit extracted.

We study model-free Q-learning in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with stationary dynamics across episodes. We identify a central issue in nascent model-free posterior-sampling works: the reliance on delayed learning in order to prove theoretical guarantees. In particular, we identify three opportunities for faster learning - (i) value-function update order, (ii) update frequencies, and (iii) value-function initialization. Using Wang et al.'s RandomizedQ as a basis, we illustrate these changes and their individual (as well as cumulative) impact in multiple empirical studies. We find that our combined modifications, termed ReversedQ, improve scaled mean cumulative reward compared to RandomizedQ, from 9.53% to 78.78% in the Bidirectional Diabolical Combination Lock (BDCL), and from 21.76% to 61.81% in a chain MDP.

The vehicle routing problem is one of the most studied combinatorial optimization topics, due to its practical importance and methodological interest. Yet, despite extensive methodological progress, many recent studies are hampered by the limited access to simple and efficient open-source solution methods. Given the sophistication of current algorithms, reimplementation is becoming a difficult and time-consuming exercise that requires extensive care for details to be truly successful. Against this background, we use the opportunity of this short paper to introduce a simple -- open-source -- implementation of the hybrid genetic search (HGS) specialized to the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). This state-of-the-art algorithm uses the same general methodology as Vidal et al. (2012) but also includes additional methodological improvements and lessons learned over the past decade of research. In particular, it includes an additional neighborhood called SWAP* which consists in exchanging two customers between different routes without an insertion in place. As highlighted in our study, an efficient exploration of SWAP* moves significantly contributes to the performance of local searches. Moreover, as observed in experimental comparisons with other recent approaches on the classical instances of Uchoa et al. (2017), HGS still stands as a leading metaheuristic regarding solution quality, convergence speed, and conceptual simplicity.

We study the non-stationary dueling bandits problem with K arms, where the time horizon T consists of M stationary segments, each of which is associated with its own preference matrix. The learner repeatedly selects a pair of arms and observes a binary preference between them as feedback. To minimize the accumulated regret, the learner needs to pick the Condorcet winner of each stationary segment as often as possible, despite preference matrices and segment lengths being unknown. We propose the Beat, the, Winner, Reset algorithm and prove a bound on its expected binary weak regret in the stationary case, which tightens the bound of current state-of-art algorithms. We also show a regret bound for the non-stationary case, without requiring knowledge of M or T. We further propose and analyze two meta-algorithms, DETECT for weak regret and Monitored, Dueling, Bandits for strong regret, both based on a detection-window approach that can incorporate any dueling bandit algorithm as a black-box algorithm. Finally, we prove a worst-case lower bound for expected weak regret in the non-stationary case.

We study the problem of Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning (NS-RL) without prior knowledge about the system's non-stationarity. A state-of-the-art, black-box algorithm, known as MASTER, is considered, with a focus on identifying the conditions under which it can achieve its stated goals. Specifically, we prove that MASTER's non-stationarity detection mechanism is not triggered for practical choices of horizon, leading to performance akin to a random restarting algorithm. Moreover, we show that the regret bound for MASTER, while being order optimal, stays above the worst-case linear regret until unreasonably large values of the horizon. To validate these observations, MASTER is tested for the special case of piecewise stationary multi-armed bandits, along with methods that employ random restarting, and others that use quickest change detection to restart. A simple, order optimal random restarting algorithm, that has prior knowledge of the non-stationarity is proposed as a baseline. The behavior of the MASTER algorithm is validated in simulations, and it is shown that methods employing quickest change detection are more robust and consistently outperform MASTER and other random restarting approaches.

Since the introduction of ChatGPT and GPT-4, these models have been tested across a large number of tasks. Their adeptness across domains is evident, but their aptitude in playing games, and specifically their aptitude in the realm of poker has remained unexplored. Poker is a game that requires decision making under uncertainty and incomplete information. In this paper, we put ChatGPT and GPT-4 through the poker test and evaluate their poker skills. Our findings reveal that while both models display an advanced understanding of poker, encompassing concepts like the valuation of starting hands, playing positions and other intricacies of game theory optimal (GTO) poker, both ChatGPT and GPT-4 are NOT game theory optimal poker players. Profitable strategies in poker are evaluated in expectations over large samples. Through a series of experiments, we first discover the characteristics of optimal prompts and model parameters for playing poker with these models. Our observations then unveil the distinct playing personas of the two models. We first conclude that GPT-4 is a more advanced poker player than ChatGPT. This exploration then sheds light on the divergent poker tactics of the two models: ChatGPT's conservativeness juxtaposed against GPT-4's aggression. In poker vernacular, when tasked to play GTO poker, ChatGPT plays like a nit, which means that it has a propensity to only engage with premium hands and folds a majority of hands. When subjected to the same directive, GPT-4 plays like a maniac, showcasing a loose and aggressive style of play. Both strategies, although relatively advanced, are not game theory optimal.

Many language-model pipelines end in a closed-set decision, such as selecting a tool. Prompting a large language model for it is slow and order-sensitive. We ask how small an encoder for such decisions can be and whether it should read the options jointly or separately. In a three-seed study at 32 million parameters, per-option scoring beats joint scoring on a held-out sample of a 37-benchmark decision suite by 5.8 points of chance-corrected skill at matched optimizer steps and by 2.8 at approximately matched training compute; two external benchmarks agree, though not significantly on their unseen tasks. Crossing reader with initialisation shows that the advantage requires a reranker initialisation, whose query-candidate pair input matches per-option reading; from the raw encoder the two readers are indistinguishable. Per-option scoring needs 5 to 13 times more encoder passes: at most twice the median latency, but more than four times the mean. Of six released joint encoders (17 million to 1 billion parameters), the 68- and 150-million-parameter models exceed a 435-million-parameter DeBERTa-v3 zero-shot classifier by 4.9 and 5.9 accuracy points on 209 overlap-audited System1-Arena tasks and are at least on par with it on the 145 tasks unseen in training. The smallest answers a median request in 14 milliseconds on 16 processor threads, against 728 for the classifier. Reordering options changes 12 to 23% of the joint models' answers (per-option scoring: none). Up to 68 million parameters, they lead their size range on a public leaderboard's private, mainly in-distribution tests.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has gained a lot of attention in recent years, and has been proven to be able to play Atari games and Go at or above human levels. However, those games are assumed to have a small fixed number of actions and could be trained with a simple CNN network. In this paper, we study a special class of Asian popular card games called Dou Di Zhu, in which two adversarial groups of agents must consider numerous card combinations at each time step, leading to huge number of actions. We propose a novel method to handle combinatorial actions, which we call combinational Q-learning (CQL). We employ a two-stage network to reduce action space and also leverage order-invariant max-pooling operations to extract relationships between primitive actions. Results show that our method prevails over state-of-the art methods like naive Q-learning and A3C. We develop an easy-to-use card game environments and train all agents adversarially from sractch, with only knowledge of game rules and verify that our agents are comparative to humans. Our code to reproduce all reported results will be available online.

In this article, we propose a new counter-based implementation of John von Neumann's middle-square random number generator (RNG). Several rounds of squaring are applied to a counter to produce a random output. We discovered that four rounds are sufficient to provide satisfactory data. Two versions of the RNG are presented, a 4-round version with 32-bit output and a 5-round version with 64-bit output. Both pass stringent tests of randomness and may be the fastest counter-based generators.

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

We provide new lower bounds on the privacy guarantee of the multi-epoch Adaptive Batch Linear Queries (ABLQ) mechanism with shuffled batch sampling, demonstrating substantial gaps when compared to Poisson subsampling; prior analysis was limited to a single epoch. Since the privacy analysis of Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) is obtained by analyzing the ABLQ mechanism, this brings into serious question the common practice of implementing shuffling-based DP-SGD, but reporting privacy parameters as if Poisson subsampling was used. To understand the impact of this gap on the utility of trained machine learning models, we introduce a practical approach to implement Poisson subsampling at scale using massively parallel computation, and efficiently train models with the same. We compare the utility of models trained with Poisson-subsampling-based DP-SGD, and the optimistic estimates of utility when using shuffling, via our new lower bounds on the privacy guarantee of ABLQ with shuffling.

It is well-known that, in the Bachelier model, when asset prices and volatilities are uncorrelated, the implied volatility coincides with the fair value of the volatility swap. In this paper, via classical Itô calculus and Taylor expansions, we write the price for out-of-the-money (OTM) and in-the-money (ITM) options as an expansion with respect to the moneyness, where the coefficients are related to the negative (non-integer) powers of the future mean volatility. As an a application, we use it as a control variate to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo option prices in the correlated case.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

Large-scale Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models rely on expert parallelism for efficient training and inference, which splits experts across devices and necessitates distributed data shuffling to route each token to its assigned experts. However, existing communication libraries handle this shuffling poorly; its overhead can account for over half of end-to-end runtime. We present FUSCO, an MoE-friendly communication library that achieves efficient and lightweight data shuffling through fused data transformation and communication, based on the key observation that MoE's expert-major data layout conflicts with the device-major layout expected by communication operations. FUSCO captures the fine-grained data layout, which is then interpreted by a pipelined communication engine that performs the required shuffling efficiently along the communication path. Lightweight planning and load-balancing mechanisms complement the engine by eliminating redundant communication and dispersing traffic. Evaluations on representative benchmarks illustrate that FUSCO achieves up to 3.84times and 2.01times speedups over NCCL and DeepEP (the state-of-the-art MoE communication library), respectively. In end-to-end MoE tasks, compared to NCCL and DeepEP, FUSCO reduces the training latency by 1.17-1.39times and 1.10-1.19times, and lowers the first-token generation latency in inference by 1.09-1.25times and 1.06-1.16times.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Modern Large Language Models achieve impressive reasoning capabilities with long Chain of Thoughts, but they incur substantial computational cost during inference, and this motivates techniques to improve the performance-cost ratio. Among these techniques, Speculative Decoding accelerates inference by employing a fast but inaccurate draft model to autoregressively propose tokens, which are then verified in parallel by a more capable target model. However, due to unnecessary rejections caused by token mismatches in semantically equivalent steps, traditional token-level Speculative Decoding struggles in reasoning tasks. Although recent works have shifted to step-level semantic verification, which improve efficiency by accepting or rejecting entire reasoning steps, existing step-level methods still regenerate many rejected steps with little improvement, wasting valuable target compute. To address this challenge, we propose Arbitrage, a novel step-level speculative generation framework that routes generation dynamically based on the relative advantage between draft and target models. Instead of applying a fixed acceptance threshold, Arbitrage uses a lightweight router trained to predict when the target model is likely to produce a meaningfully better step. This routing approximates an ideal Arbitrage Oracle that always chooses the higher-quality step, achieving near-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, Arbitrage consistently surpasses prior step-level Speculative Decoding baselines, reducing inference latency by up to sim2times at matched accuracy.

We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the Restarted Bayesian Online Change-Point Detection algorithm (R-BOCPD) that operates on input streams originating from the more general multinomial distribution and provides near-optimal theoretical guarantees in terms of false-alarm rate and detection delay. Based on this, we propose an improved version of the UCRL2 algorithm for MDPs with state transition kernel sampled from a multinomial distribution, which we call R-BOCPD-UCRL2. We perform a finite-time performance analysis and show that R-BOCPD-UCRL2 enjoys a favorable regret bound of Oleft(D O A T K_T logleft (frac{T{delta} right) + K_T log frac{K_T{delta}}{minlimits_ell : KLleft( {theta^{(ell+1)}}midmathbf{theta^{(ell)}}right)}}right), where D is the largest MDP diameter from the set of MDPs defining the piecewise stationary MDP setting, O is the finite number of states (constant over all changes), A is the finite number of actions (constant over all changes), K_T is the number of change points up to horizon T, and theta^{(ell)} is the transition kernel during the interval [c_ell, c_{ell+1}), which we assume to be multinomially distributed over the set of states O. Interestingly, the performance bound does not directly scale with the variation in MDP state transition distributions and rewards, ie. can also model abrupt changes. In practice, R-BOCPD-UCRL2 outperforms the state-of-the-art in a variety of scenarios in synthetic environments. We provide a detailed experimental setup along with a code repository (upon publication) that can be used to easily reproduce our experiments.

We consider two data driven approaches, Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Deep Trajectory-based Stochastic Optimal Control (DTSOC) for hedging a European call option without and with transaction cost according to a quadratic hedging P&L objective at maturity ("variance-optimal hedging" or "final quadratic hedging"). We study the performance of the two approaches under various market environments (modeled via the Black-Scholes and/or the log-normal SABR model) to understand their advantages and limitations. Without transaction costs and in the Black-Scholes model, both approaches match the performance of the variance-optimal Delta hedge. In the log-normal SABR model without transaction costs, they match the performance of the variance-optimal Barlett's Delta hedge. Agents trained on Black-Scholes trajectories with matching initial volatility but used on SABR trajectories match the performance of Bartlett's Delta hedge in average cost, but show substantially wider variance. To apply RL approaches to these problems, P&L at maturity is written as sum of step-wise contributions and variants of RL algorithms are implemented and used that minimize expectation of second moments of such sums.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants have become increasingly popular for aligning language models with human preferences. These methods aim to teach models to better distinguish between chosen (or preferred) and rejected (or dispreferred) responses. However, prior research has identified that the probability of chosen responses often decreases during training, and this phenomenon is known as likelihood displacement. To tackle this challenge, in this work we introduce \method to controllably shift the distribution of the chosen probability. Then, we show that \method exhibits a fundamental trade-off between improving the chosen probability and sacrificing the reward margin, as supported by both theoretical analysis and experimental validation. Furthermore, we demonstrate the superiority of \method over DPO on downstream tasks such as MT-Bench and a designed win rate experiment. We believe this study shows that the likelihood displacement issue of DPO can be effectively mitigated with a simple, theoretically grounded solution. Our code is available at https://github.com/Meaquadddd/DPO-Shift.

Closed-loop human-AI systems generate high-dimensional behavioural trajectories whose collective dynamics remain obscure. Using 297,915 learners' adaptive-tutoring histories, we define semantic order variables before model fitting and test them in user-disjoint cohorts. The state exhibits reproducible basin-like flow and operationally defined, state-heterogeneous metastable-like kinetics. A construction-matched null distinguishes normalised-memory relaxation from a reproducible excess field. A four-term conditional mechanism recovers population drift (r = 0.946; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.935-0.955). Predictive event-level self-supervised learning recovers the state and learned-plane flow; null-referenced corrections retain directional, partial-amplitude excess-field structure without full calibration. Shuffled-order training reverses learned-plane flow on ordered trajectories; support-alignment randomisation selectively reduces inward transport. Both axes remain linearly accessible without state supervision. Without cross-model fitting, the models share leading population drift (r = 0.866; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.857-0.875) and persistence ordering; residual directions remain model-specific. These results identify an externally anchored leading-order effective field linking empirical dynamics, an interpretable mechanism and neural computation.

An abundance of recent impossibility results establish that regret minimization in Markov games with adversarial opponents is both statistically and computationally intractable. Nevertheless, none of these results preclude the possibility of regret minimization under the assumption that all parties adopt the same learning procedure. In this work, we present the first (to our knowledge) algorithm for learning in general-sum Markov games that provides sublinear regret guarantees when executed by all agents. The bounds we obtain are for swap regret, and thus, along the way, imply convergence to a correlated equilibrium. Our algorithm is decentralized, computationally efficient, and does not require any communication between agents. Our key observation is that online learning via policy optimization in Markov games essentially reduces to a form of weighted regret minimization, with unknown weights determined by the path length of the agents' policy sequence. Consequently, controlling the path length leads to weighted regret objectives for which sufficiently adaptive algorithms provide sublinear regret guarantees.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Poker, also known as Texas Hold'em, has always been a typical research target within imperfect information games (IIGs). IIGs have long served as a measure of artificial intelligence (AI) development. Representative prior works, such as DeepStack and Libratus heavily rely on counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) to tackle heads-up no-limit Poker. However, it is challenging for subsequent researchers to learn CFR from previous models and apply it to other real-world applications due to the expensive computational cost of CFR iterations. Additionally, CFR is difficult to apply to multi-player games due to the exponential growth of the game tree size. In this work, we introduce PokerGPT, an end-to-end solver for playing Texas Hold'em with arbitrary number of players and gaining high win rates, established on a lightweight large language model (LLM). PokerGPT only requires simple textual information of Poker games for generating decision-making advice, thus guaranteeing the convenient interaction between AI and humans. We mainly transform a set of textual records acquired from real games into prompts, and use them to fine-tune a lightweight pre-trained LLM using reinforcement learning human feedback technique. To improve fine-tuning performance, we conduct prompt engineering on raw data, including filtering useful information, selecting behaviors of players with high win rates, and further processing them into textual instruction using multiple prompt engineering techniques. Through the experiments, we demonstrate that PokerGPT outperforms previous approaches in terms of win rate, model size, training time, and response speed, indicating the great potential of LLMs in solving IIGs.

In this paper, we consider the problem of sleeping bandits with stochastic action sets and adversarial rewards. In this setting, in contrast to most work in bandits, the actions may not be available at all times. For instance, some products might be out of stock in item recommendation. The best existing efficient (i.e., polynomial-time) algorithms for this problem only guarantee an O(T^{2/3}) upper-bound on the regret. Yet, inefficient algorithms based on EXP4 can achieve O(T). In this paper, we provide a new computationally efficient algorithm inspired by EXP3 satisfying a regret of order O(T) when the availabilities of each action i in cA are independent. We then study the most general version of the problem where at each round available sets are generated from some unknown arbitrary distribution (i.e., without the independence assumption) and propose an efficient algorithm with O(2^K T) regret guarantee. Our theoretical results are corroborated with experimental evaluations.

We present fast-vollib, an open-source Python library that provides high-performance European option pricing, implied volatility (IV) computation, and Greeks under the Black-76, Black-Scholes, and Black-Scholes-Merton models. The library is designed as a drop-in alternative to the de-facto-standard py_vollib and py_vollib_vectorized packages, with pluggable PyTorch and JAX execution backends, a CUDA fused-kernel Triton contribution for batched IV workloads, and a compatibility-first public API. In addition to a vectorized Halley-method IV solver, fast-vollib ships an experimental, fully-vectorized implementation of Jäckel's "Let's Be Rational" (LBR) algorithm with NumPy/Numba, torch.compile, JAX, and Triton single-pass GPU kernels for batched option chains. This note announces the library and describes its public API surface, with source, documentation, and packaging artifacts available at: GitHub (https://github.com/raeidsaqur/fast-vollib), Docs (https://raeidsaqur.github.io/fast-vollib/), PyPI (https://pypi.org/project/fast-vollib/).

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a representative post-training paradigm for LLMs, enabling strong reasoning and agentic capabilities. However, rollout generation remains a dominant latency bottleneck because autoregressive sampling decodes responses sequentially and a small number of long-tailed generations often determine completion time. Speculative decoding (SD) offers a natural way to address this bottleneck, as it is a well-established technique for serving fixed LLMs that reduces latency by rapidly drafting tokens and accepting them through parallel verification while preserving the target-model distribution. However, its practical speedups do not directly carry over to RL rollouts: (i) the evolving target policy makes any fixed drafter increasingly mismatched with the policy's output distribution; and (ii) active batch sizes shrink throughout rollout decoding, shifting decoding from compute-bound to memory-bound regimes where parallel verification can exploit underutilized compute. Therefore, accelerating RL rollouts requires both a drafter that remains effective under long, high-temperature generations from an evolving policy and system-aware use of SD that avoids compute-bound regimes. We present EfficientRollout, a system-aware self-SD framework designed to address this gap for RL rollouts. EfficientRollout induces a quantized drafter from the target model (i.e. self-speculative decoding), keeping it coupled to the evolving policy without separate drafter pretraining or online adaptation. It further coordinates a system-aware SD toggle policy with acceptance-aware draft-length adaptation, enabling speculation only in beneficial regimes while matching the drafting budget to evolving drafter quality. EfficientRollout reduces rollout and end-to-end latency by up to 19.6% and 12.7%, respectively, over an accelerated AR rollout baseline, while preserving final model quality.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Pairwise Ranking Prompting (PRP) elicits pairwise preference judgments from an LLM, which are then aggregated into a ranking, usually via classical sorting algorithms. However, judgments are noisy, order-sensitive, and sometimes intransitive, so sorting assumptions do not match the setting. Because sorting aims to recover a full permutation, truncating it to meet a call budget does not produce a dependable top-K. We thus reframe PRP reranking as active learning from noisy pairwise comparisons and show that active rankers are drop-in replacements that improve NDCG@10 per call in the call-constrained regime. Our noise-robust framework also introduces a randomized-direction oracle that uses a single LLM call per pair. This approach converts systematic position bias into zero-mean noise, enabling unbiased aggregate ranking without the cost of bidirectional calls.

Exploration remains a critical issue in deep reinforcement learning for an agent to attain high returns in unknown environments. Although the prevailing exploration Random Network Distillation (RND) algorithm has been demonstrated to be effective in numerous environments, it often needs more discriminative power in bonus allocation. This paper highlights the "bonus inconsistency" issue within RND, pinpointing its primary limitation. To address this issue, we introduce the Distributional RND (DRND), a derivative of the RND. DRND enhances the exploration process by distilling a distribution of random networks and implicitly incorporating pseudo counts to improve the precision of bonus allocation. This refinement encourages agents to engage in more extensive exploration. Our method effectively mitigates the inconsistency issue without introducing significant computational overhead. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our approach over the original RND algorithm. Our method excels in challenging online exploration scenarios and effectively serves as an anti-exploration mechanism in D4RL offline tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yk7333/DRND.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

This study develops and empirically validates a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for stock price prediction across heterogeneous volatility regimes using real market data. The proposed model combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) optimized for high-volatility stocks with a linear regression model tailored to stable equities. A volatility-aware gating mechanism dynamically weights the contributions of each expert based on asset classification. Using a dataset of 30 publicly traded U.S. stocks spanning diverse sectors, the MoE approach consistently outperforms both standalone models. Specifically, it achieves up to 33% improvement in MSE for volatile assets and 28% for stable assets relative to their respective baselines. Stratified evaluation across volatility classes demonstrates the model's ability to adapt complexity to underlying market dynamics. These results confirm that no single model suffices across market regimes and highlight the advantage of adaptive architectures in financial prediction. Future work should explore real-time gate learning, dynamic volatility segmentation, and applications to portfolio optimization.

The inherent non-stationarity of financial markets and the complexity of multi-modal information pose significant challenges to existing quantitative trading models. Traditional methods relying on fixed structures and unimodal data struggle to adapt to market regime shifts, while large language model (LLM)-driven solutions - despite their multi-modal comprehension - suffer from static strategies and homogeneous expert designs, lacking dynamic adjustment and fine-grained decision mechanisms. To address these limitations, we propose MM-DREX: a Multimodal-driven, Dynamically-Routed EXpert framework based on large language models. MM-DREX explicitly decouples market state perception from strategy execution to enable adaptive sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments. Specifically, it (1) introduces a vision-language model (VLM)-powered dynamic router that jointly analyzes candlestick chart patterns and long-term temporal features to allocate real-time expert weights; (2) designs four heterogeneous trading experts (trend, reversal, breakout, positioning) generating specialized fine-grained sub-strategies; and (3) proposes an SFT-RL hybrid training paradigm to synergistically optimize the router's market classification capability and experts' risk-adjusted decision-making. Extensive experiments on multi-modal datasets spanning stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies demonstrate that MM-DREX significantly outperforms 15 baselines (including state-of-the-art financial LLMs and deep reinforcement learning models) across key metrics: total return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, validating its robustness and generalization. Additionally, an interpretability module traces routing logic and expert behavior in real time, providing an audit trail for strategy transparency.

Many real-world games do not admit a fixed, compact rule set: instead, their dynamics are defined by interactions among a large and often evolving collection of game pieces, making general-purpose policy learning impractical. Magic: the Gathering (MTG) exemplifies this setting, where the cards themselves define and alter gameplay rules, strategic constraints, and long-term outcomes, while the pool of available cards is ever-changing. We study Draft, a constrained deck-building format of MTG in which eight players make 39-45 sequential selections from semi-random packs to construct a 40-card deck under partial information. By isolating the card selection process from gameplay, Draft provides a tractable yet non-trivial setting for studying decision-making driven by combinatorial card synergies. We propose an encoder-based model that produces set-contextualized card embeddings to encode the draft decision sequence, with a consistent improvement over linear baselines on large-scale real-world data, establishing a first learned benchmark for outcome prediction in MTG Draft. Our code is available at github.com/akulen/MtGDraftEncoder.

Inter-user interference remains a critical bottleneck in wireless communication systems, particularly in the emerging paradigm of semantic communication (SemCom). Compared to traditional systems, inter-user interference in SemCom severely degrades key semantic information, often causing worse performance than Gaussian noise under the same power level. To address this challenge, inspired by the recently proposed concept of Orthogonal Model Division Multiple Access (OMDMA) that leverages semantic orthogonality rooted in the personalized joint source and channel (JSCC) models to distinguish users, we propose a novel, scalable framework that eliminates the need for user-specific JSCC models as did in original OMDMA. Our key innovation lies in shuffle-based orthogonalization, where randomly permuting the positions of JSCC feature vectors transforms inter-user interference into Gaussian-like noise. By assigning each user a unique shuffling pattern, the interference is treated as channel noise, enabling effective mitigation using diffusion models (DMs). This approach not only simplifies system design by requiring a single universal JSCC model but also enhances privacy, as shuffling patterns act as implicit private keys. Additionally, we extend the framework to scenarios involving semantically correlated data. By grouping users based on semantic similarity, a cooperative beamforming strategy is introduced to exploit redundancy in correlated data, further improving system performance. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art multi-user SemCom frameworks, achieving superior semantic fidelity, robustness to interference, and scalability-all without requiring additional training overhead.

The game show Lucky 13 differs from other television game shows in that contestants are required to place a bet on their own knowledge of trivia by selecting a range that contains the number of questions that they answered correctly. We present a model for this game show using binomial random variables and generate tables outlining the optimal range the player should select based on maximization of two different utility functions. After analyzing the decisions made by some actual contestants on this show, we present a numerical simulation for how many questions an average player is expected to answer correctly based on question categories observed for two sample contestants.

In this paper, we introduce the Preselection Bandit problem, in which the learner preselects a subset of arms (choice alternatives) for a user, which then chooses the final arm from this subset. The learner is not aware of the user's preferences, but can learn them from observed choices. In our concrete setting, we allow these choices to be stochastic and model the user's actions by means of the Plackett-Luce model. The learner's main task is to preselect subsets that eventually lead to highly preferred choices. To formalize this goal, we introduce a reasonable notion of regret and derive lower bounds on the expected regret. Moreover, we propose algorithms for which the upper bound on expected regret matches the lower bound up to a logarithmic term of the time horizon.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) is the dominant paradigm for private training, but its fundamental limitations under worst-case adversarial privacy definitions remain poorly understood. We analyze DP-SGD in the f-differential privacy framework, which characterizes privacy via hypothesis-testing trade-off curves, and study shuffled sampling over a single epoch with M gradient updates. We derive an explicit suboptimal upper bound on the achievable trade-off curve. This result induces a geometric lower bound on the separation κ which is the maximum distance between the mechanism's trade-off curve and the ideal random-guessing line. Because a large separation implies significant adversarial advantage, meaningful privacy requires small κ. However, we prove that enforcing a small separation imposes a strict lower bound on the Gaussian noise multiplier σ, which directly limits the achievable utility. In particular, under the standard worst-case adversarial model, shuffled DP-SGD must satisfy σge 1{2ln M} quadorquad κge 1{8}!left(1-1{4πln M}right), and thus cannot simultaneously achieve strong privacy and high utility. Although this bound vanishes asymptotically as M to infty, the convergence is extremely slow: even for practically relevant numbers of updates the required noise magnitude remains substantial. We further show that the same limitation extends to Poisson subsampling up to constant factors. Our experiments confirm that the noise levels implied by this bound leads to significant accuracy degradation at realistic training settings, thus showing a critical bottleneck in DP-SGD under standard worst-case adversarial assumptions.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

The use of synthetic data has played a critical role in recent state-of-art breakthroughs. However, overly relying on a single oracle teacher model to generate data has been shown to lead to model collapse and invite propagation of biases. These limitations are particularly evident in multilingual settings, where the absence of a universally effective teacher model that excels across all languages presents significant challenges. In this work, we address these extreme difference by introducing "multilingual arbitrage", which capitalizes on performance variations between multiple models for a given language. To do so, we strategically route samples through a diverse pool of models, each with unique strengths in different languages. Across exhaustive experiments on state-of-art models, our work suggests that arbitrage techniques allow for spectacular gains in performance that far outperform relying on a single teacher. In particular, compared to the best single teacher, we observe gains of up to 56.5% improvement in win rates averaged across all languages when switching to multilingual arbitrage. We observe the most significant gains for the least resourced languages in our pool.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

This paper generalises the treatment of compositional game theory as introduced by the second and third authors with Ghani and Winschel, where games are modelled as morphisms of a symmetric monoidal category. From an economic modelling perspective, the existing notion of an open game is not expressive enough for many applications. This includes stochastic environments, stochastic choices by players, as well as incomplete information regarding the game being played. The current paper addresses these three issue all at once. To achieve this we make significant use of category theory, especially the 'coend optics' of Riley.

We present a framework for hedging a portfolio of derivatives in the presence of market frictions such as transaction costs, market impact, liquidity constraints or risk limits using modern deep reinforcement machine learning methods. We discuss how standard reinforcement learning methods can be applied to non-linear reward structures, i.e. in our case convex risk measures. As a general contribution to the use of deep learning for stochastic processes, we also show that the set of constrained trading strategies used by our algorithm is large enough to ε-approximate any optimal solution. Our algorithm can be implemented efficiently even in high-dimensional situations using modern machine learning tools. Its structure does not depend on specific market dynamics, and generalizes across hedging instruments including the use of liquid derivatives. Its computational performance is largely invariant in the size of the portfolio as it depends mainly on the number of hedging instruments available. We illustrate our approach by showing the effect on hedging under transaction costs in a synthetic market driven by the Heston model, where we outperform the standard "complete market" solution.

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between rerandomization and deterministic assignment, showing how deterministic assignment is an extreme case of rerandomization. The paper argues that in small experiments, both fully randomized and fully deterministic assignment have limitations. Instead, the researcher should consider setting the rerandomization acceptance probability based on an analysis of covariates and assumptions about the data structure to achieve an optimal alignment between randomness and balance. This allows for the calculation of minimum p-values along with valid permutation tests and fiducial intervals. The paper also introduces tools, including a new, open-source R package named fastrerandomize, to implement rerandomization and explore options for optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds.

The optimal stopping problem is a category of decision problems with a specific constrained configuration. It is relevant to various real-world applications such as finance and management. To solve the optimal stopping problem, state-of-the-art algorithms in dynamic programming, such as the least-squares Monte Carlo (LSMC), are employed. This type of algorithm relies on path simulations using only the last price of the underlying asset as a state representation. Also, the LSMC was thinking for option valuation where risk-neutral probabilities can be employed to account for uncertainty. However, the general optimal stopping problem goals may not fit the requirements of the LSMC showing auto-correlated prices. We employ a data-driven method that uses Monte Carlo simulation to train and test artificial neural networks (ANN) to solve the optimal stopping problem. Using ANN to solve decision problems is not entirely new. We propose a different architecture that uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) to deal with the dimensionality problem that arises when we transform the whole history of prices into a Markovian state. We present experiments that indicate that our proposed architecture improves results over the previous implementations under specific simulated time series function sets. Lastly, we employ our proposed method to compare the optimal exercise of the financial options problem with the LSMC algorithm. Our experiments show that our method can capture more accurate exercise opportunities when compared to the LSMC. We have outstandingly higher (above 974\% improvement) expected payoff from these exercise policies under the many Monte Carlo simulations that used the real-world return database on the out-of-sample (test) data.

Hybrid-reasoning large language models (LLMs) expose explicit controls over reasoning effort, allowing users or systems to trade off answer quality against inference cost. However, existing methods for adaptive thinking-mode selection are typically evaluated under different models, datasets, and implementation assumptions, making it difficult to compare their practical behavior. We introduce HRBench, a unified evaluation framework for studying thinking-mode switching in hybrid-reasoning LLMs. HRBench organizes the design space along two axes: three switching strategy families, prompt-based selection, external routing, and speculative execution, and four training regimes, training-free, SFT, offline and online RL, yielding 12 controlled evaluation settings. We evaluate these settings across 6 LLMs, from Qwen3.5-2B to Kimi-K2.5-1.1T, and 5 reasoning benchmarks covering mathematics, science, and code, while reimplementing 12+ representative prior methods within the same pipeline. Our analysis characterizes how different switching strategies occupy distinct effectiveness-efficiency trade-off regions: prompt-based methods often provide favorable token-accuracy trade-offs, routing methods offer more stable cost reduction, and speculative methods tend to improve accuracy at higher token cost. We further find that training affects strategies differently, and that the preferred strategy varies with model scale and task domain. HRBench provides reference implementations and a unified evaluation platform to support more controlled research on efficient reasoning in hybrid-reasoning LLMs. Our data, code and repository are available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/HRBench.

We propose Monte Carlo Permutation Search (MCPS), a general-purpose Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm that improves upon the GRAVE algorithm. MCPS is relevant when deep reinforcement learning is not an option, or when the computing power available before play is not substantial, such as in General Game Playing, for example. The principle of MCPS is to include in the exploration term of a node the statistics on all the playouts that contain all the moves on the path from the root to the node. We extensively test MCPS on a variety of games: board games, wargame, investment game, video game and multi-player games. MCPS has better results than GRAVE in all the two-player games. It has equivalent results for multi-player games because these games are inherently balanced even when players have different strengths. We also show that using abstract codes for moves instead of exact codes can be beneficial to both MCPS and GRAVE, as they improve the permutation statistics and the AMAF statistics. We also provide a mathematical derivation of the formulas used for weighting the three sources of statistics. These formulas are an improvement on the GRAVE formula since they no longer use the bias hyperparameter of GRAVE. Moreover, MCPS is not sensitive to the ref hyperparameter.

Revolutionizing the field of deep learning, Transformer-based models have achieved remarkable performance in many tasks. Recent research has recognized these models are robust to shuffling but are limited to inter-token permutation in the forward propagation. In this work, we propose our definition of permutation equivariance, a broader concept covering both inter- and intra- token permutation in the forward and backward propagation of neural networks. We rigorously proved that such permutation equivariance property can be satisfied on most vanilla Transformer-based models with almost no adaptation. We examine the property over a range of state-of-the-art models including ViT, Bert, GPT, and others, with experimental validations. Further, as a proof-of-concept, we explore how real-world applications including privacy-enhancing split learning, and model authorization, could exploit the permutation equivariance property, which implicates wider, intriguing application scenarios.

Adaptive computation aims to improve language-model inference by tailoring execution to each input. For layer programs, oracle evaluations use known answers to estimate the potential gain from this flexibility, before a practical selector is available. However, a gain from selection does not by itself explain why the chosen programs help. This study examines this distinction using 32 layer-skipping and repetition programs on two models and 4,413 multiple-choice items. The analysis compares their gains over a fixed action selected without the evaluation prompt with those of input-blind perturbations at the same sites, re-evaluating selections on another prompt. With shared option order, the controls give 10.2-11.8 and 15.6-19.4 percentage points of headroom on Qwen3-4B-Base and Llama-3.1-8B, exceeding the real programs' 9.0 and 10.1 in all three random-direction draws per model. They match answer-change rate only, and the ordering depends on the menu: in post hoc comparisons, real programs lead on Llama's repeat-only menu in every draw. A smaller KL-calibrated comparison, including an input-dependent control, favours real programs in point estimate, with inconclusive corrected tests. Fixed letter offsets produce headroom of similar scale. Rotating options sharply reduces both families' headroom, while leaving positive real-minus-control differences of 1.4-2.3 and 3.7-4.5 points; their magnitudes and statistical support depend on further adjustments and the reference. A supplementary generated-answer test finds that search-selected programs keep a 26.0-point advantage over programs selected for other problems after rewording, without a placebo comparison. These results show that substantial headroom can persist across prompts with shared option order without establishing a benefit specific to the selected layer computation; neither ordering against these controls identifies that benefit.

In this paper, we introduce Randomized Q-learning (RandQL), a novel randomized model-free algorithm for regret minimization in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). To the best of our knowledge, RandQL is the first tractable model-free posterior sampling-based algorithm. We analyze the performance of RandQL in both tabular and non-tabular metric space settings. In tabular MDPs, RandQL achieves a regret bound of order O(H^{5SAT}), where H is the planning horizon, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, and T is the number of episodes. For a metric state-action space, RandQL enjoys a regret bound of order O(H^{5/2} T^{(d_z+1)/(d_z+2)}), where d_z denotes the zooming dimension. Notably, RandQL achieves optimistic exploration without using bonuses, relying instead on a novel idea of learning rate randomization. Our empirical study shows that RandQL outperforms existing approaches on baseline exploration environments.

We study distributionally robust expected values under optimal transport distance with a quadratic cost function. In general the duality method, for this computation for the payoff function f, requires the computation of the λc-transform f^{λc}. We show that under the quadratic cost function there exists an intuitive and easily implementable representation of f^{λc}, if f is convex and piecewise linear. We apply this to the robust expected shortfall under the risk-neutral measure of an unhedged call option, from the point of view of the writer, as well as that of a portfolio mixing underlying shares with a call and a put option.

In this paper we develop a model of an order-driven market where traders set bids and asks and post market or limit orders according to exogenously fixed rules. Agents are assumed to have three components to the expectation of future asset returns, namely-fundamentalist, chartist and noise trader. Furthermore agents differ in the characteristics describing these components, such as time horizon, risk aversion and the weights given to the various components. The model developed here extends a great deal of earlier literature in that the order submissions of agents are determined by utility maximisation, rather than the mechanical unit order size that is commonly assumed. In this way the order flow is better related to the ongoing evolution of the market. For the given market structure we analyze the impact of the three components of the trading strategies on the statistical properties of prices and order flows and observe that it is the chartist strategy that is mainly responsible of the fat tails and clustering in the artificial price data generated by the model. The paper provides further evidence that large price changes are likely to be generated by the presence of large gaps in the book.

Dueling bandits is a prominent framework for decision-making involving preferential feedback, a valuable feature that fits various applications involving human interaction, such as ranking, information retrieval, and recommendation systems. While substantial efforts have been made to minimize the cumulative regret in dueling bandits, a notable gap in the current research is the absence of regret bounds that account for the inherent uncertainty in pairwise comparisons between the dueling arms. Intuitively, greater uncertainty suggests a higher level of difficulty in the problem. To bridge this gap, this paper studies the problem of contextual dueling bandits, where the binary comparison of dueling arms is generated from a generalized linear model (GLM). We propose a new SupLinUCB-type algorithm that enjoys computational efficiency and a variance-aware regret bound tilde Obig(dsum_{t=1^Tsigma_t^2} + dbig), where sigma_t is the variance of the pairwise comparison in round t, d is the dimension of the context vectors, and T is the time horizon. Our regret bound naturally aligns with the intuitive expectation in scenarios where the comparison is deterministic, the algorithm only suffers from an tilde O(d) regret. We perform empirical experiments on synthetic data to confirm the advantage of our method over previous variance-agnostic algorithms.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

Learning to denoise has emerged as a prominent paradigm to design state-of-the-art deep generative models for natural images. How to use it to model the distributions of both continuous real-valued data and categorical data has been well studied in recently proposed diffusion models. However, it is found in this paper to have limited ability in modeling some other types of data, such as count and non-negative continuous data, that are often highly sparse, skewed, heavy-tailed, and/or overdispersed. To this end, we propose learning to jump as a general recipe for generative modeling of various types of data. Using a forward count thinning process to construct learning objectives to train a deep neural network, it employs a reverse count thickening process to iteratively refine its generation through that network. We demonstrate when learning to jump is expected to perform comparably to learning to denoise, and when it is expected to perform better. For example, learning to jump is recommended when the training data is non-negative and exhibits strong sparsity, skewness, heavy-tailedness, and/or heterogeneity.

In this paper, we propose a general theory of ambiguity-averse MDPs, which treats the uncertain transition probabilities as random variables and evaluates a policy via a risk measure applied to its random return. This ambiguity-averse MDP framework unifies several models of MDPs with epistemic uncertainty for specific choices of risk measures. We extend the concepts of value functions and Bellman operators to our setting. Based on these objects, we establish the consequences of dynamic programming principles in this framework (existence of stationary policies, value and policy iteration algorithms), and we completely characterize law-invariant risk measures compatible with dynamic programming. Our work draws connections among several variants of MDP models and fully delineates what is possible under the dynamic programming paradigm and which risk measures require leaving it.

Computing a Gaussian process (GP) posterior has a computational cost cubical in the number of historical points. A reformulation of the same GP posterior highlights that this complexity mainly depends on how many unique historical points are considered. This can have important implication in active learning settings, where the set of historical points is constructed sequentially by the learner. We show that sequential black-box optimization based on GPs (GP-Opt) can be made efficient by sticking to a candidate solution for multiple evaluation steps and switch only when necessary. Limiting the number of switches also limits the number of unique points in the history of the GP. Thus, the efficient GP reformulation can be used to exactly and cheaply compute the posteriors required to run the GP-Opt algorithms. This approach is especially useful in real-world applications of GP-Opt with high switch costs (e.g. switching chemicals in wet labs, data/model loading in hyperparameter optimization). As examples of this meta-approach, we modify two well-established GP-Opt algorithms, GP-UCB and GP-EI, to switch candidates as infrequently as possible adapting rules from batched GP-Opt. These versions preserve all the theoretical no-regret guarantees while improving practical aspects of the algorithms such as runtime, memory complexity, and the ability of batching candidates and evaluating them in parallel.

You are a robot and you live in a Markov decision process (MDP) with a finite or an infinite number of transitions from state-action to next states. You got brains and so you plan before you act. Luckily, your roboparents equipped you with a generative model to do some Monte-Carlo planning. The world is waiting for you and you have no time to waste. You want your planning to be efficient. Sample-efficient. Indeed, you want to exploit the possible structure of the MDP by exploring only a subset of states reachable by following near-optimal policies. You want guarantees on sample complexity that depend on a measure of the quantity of near-optimal states. You want something, that is an extension of Monte-Carlo sampling (for estimating an expectation) to problems that alternate maximization (over actions) and expectation (over next states). But you do not want to StOP with exponential running time, you want something simple to implement and computationally efficient. You want it all and you want it now. You want TrailBlazer.

The performance of trend following strategies can be ascribed to the difference between long-term and short-term realized variance. We revisit this general result and show that it holds for various definitions of trend strategies. This explains the positive convexity of the aggregate performance of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) which -- when adequately measured -- turns out to be much stronger than anticipated. We also highlight interesting connections with so-called Risk Parity portfolios. Finally, we propose a new portfolio of strangle options that provides a pure exposure to the long-term variance of the underlying, offering yet another viewpoint on the link between trend and volatility.

Trader-facing dynamic fees are increasingly proposed for automated market makers (AMMs), but historical data do not identify how order flow would respond: trader-facing fees do not vary, trader types are latent, and a replayed tape is not a sequential decision environment. We therefore construct a minimal closed-loop simulator in which the missing signal exists by construction: two constant-product pools repriced by an equilibrium-inspired dynamic-fee rule, fee-sensitive noise flow, and closed-form CEX--AMM arbitrage. Equilibrium is used as a closure principle, not as an object the trader learns. Against a tuned benchmark ladder of schedule, planning, lookahead, and tabular policies, a small DQN is the only evaluated valid policy whose paired improvement over tuned one-step routing excludes zero. On a reserved final block of 1{,}000 seeds with completion forced to 1.0 for every policy, it reduces implementation shortfall under every tested intra-step ordering, by 13.3bps of order notional under the pre-specified agent-last ordering, and the edge is concentrated in, and learned from, dynamic-fee environments: under constant fees the paired difference is indistinguishable from zero. The result is model-conditioned counterfactual evidence about execution control in AMMs, not evidence about historical traders, equilibrium play, or deployable profit.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Recent works show that ordering of the training data affects the model performance for Neural Machine Translation. Several approaches involving dynamic data ordering and data sharding based on curriculum learning have been analysed for the their performance gains and faster convergence. In this work we propose to empirically study several ordering approaches for the training data based on different metrics and evaluate their impact on the model performance. Results from our study show that pre-fixing the ordering of the training data based on perplexity scores from a pre-trained model performs the best and outperforms the default approach of randomly shuffling the training data every epoch.

LLMs can appear cautious in risk decision-making tasks, yet cautious-looking outputs do not necessarily indicate alignment with human decision-making mechanisms. We investigate this distinction using the St. Petersburg game as a controlled testbed, a classical paradox in which the expected payoff is infinite, yet humans typically report low, finite willingness to pay. We evaluate 28 LLMs with a structured prompt suite that includes the original game; controlled decision variants that perturb truncation, repeated play, numeric endowment, and occupational identity; a human-perspective prompt that asks models to reason as human decision makers; and paired comparisons between base models and their instruction-tuned counterparts. In the original game, most models generate finite bids, creating the appearance of human-like risk behavior. However, this outcome-level resemblance masks substantial mechanism-level differences. The controlled variants reveal that rather than maintaining human-like behavior seen in the original game, models often shift to conditionally and computationally rational behavior. Human-cue prompting and instruction tuning often lower bids and reduce some visible pathologies, but most mechanism-level response patterns remain largely unchanged. These findings show that behavioral alignment in risk decision-making can be surface-level: LLMs may produce human-like risk decisions without exhibiting human-consistent mechanisms. High-stakes evaluations of LLM decision-making should therefore move beyond outcome similarity and examine whether the alignment is supported by mechanism-level consistency.

Neural field is an emerging paradigm in data representation that trains a neural network to approximate the given signal. A key obstacle that prevents its widespread adoption is the encoding speed-generating neural fields requires an overfitting of a neural network, which can take a significant number of SGD steps to reach the desired fidelity level. In this paper, we delve into the impacts of data transformations on the speed of neural field training, specifically focusing on how permuting pixel locations affect the convergence speed of SGD. Counterintuitively, we find that randomly permuting the pixel locations can considerably accelerate the training. To explain this phenomenon, we examine the neural field training through the lens of PSNR curves, loss landscapes, and error patterns. Our analyses suggest that the random pixel permutations remove the easy-to-fit patterns, which facilitate easy optimization in the early stage but hinder capturing fine details of the signal.

Algorithmic trading relies on machine learning models to make trading decisions. Despite strong in-sample performance, these models often degrade when confronted with evolving real-world market regimes, which can shift dramatically due to macroeconomic changes-e.g., monetary policy updates or unanticipated fluctuations in participant behavior. We identify two challenges that perpetuate this mismatch: (1) insufficient robustness in existing policy against uncertainties in high-level market fluctuations, and (2) the absence of a realistic and diverse simulation environment for training, leading to policy overfitting. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian Robust Framework that systematically integrates a macro-conditioned generative model with robust policy learning. On the data side, to generate realistic and diverse data, we propose a macro-conditioned GAN-based generator that leverages macroeconomic indicators as primary control variables, synthesizing data with faithful temporal, cross-instrument, and macro correlations. On the policy side, to learn robust policy against market fluctuations, we cast the trading process as a two-player zero-sum Bayesian Markov game, wherein an adversarial agent simulates shifting regimes by perturbing macroeconomic indicators in the macro-conditioned generator, while the trading agent-guided by a quantile belief network-maintains and updates its belief over hidden market states. The trading agent seeks a Robust Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium via Bayesian neural fictitious self-play, stabilizing learning under adversarial market perturbations. Extensive experiments on 9 financial instruments demonstrate that our framework outperforms 9 state-of-the-art baselines. In extreme events like the COVID, our method shows improved profitability and risk management, offering a reliable solution for trading under uncertain and shifting market dynamics.

We consider the task of identifying the Copeland winner(s) in a dueling bandits problem with ternary feedback. This is an underexplored but practically relevant variant of the conventional dueling bandits problem, in which, in addition to strict preference between two arms, one may observe feedback in the form of an indifference. We provide a lower bound on the sample complexity for any learning algorithm finding the Copeland winner(s) with a fixed error probability. Moreover, we propose POCOWISTA, an algorithm with a sample complexity that almost matches this lower bound, and which shows excellent empirical performance, even for the conventional dueling bandits problem. For the case where the preference probabilities satisfy a specific type of stochastic transitivity, we provide a refined version with an improved worst case sample complexity.

Typed decision models answer a declared question without generating text: a decision head returns a probability for each of the declared options in a single forward pass. A single pass is fast, intuitive System 1 thinking. We study what lies between one pass and generated reasoning: looping, in which the same layers are recursively applied several times before one typed readout. Each loop lets the model revise its hidden state before it commits to an answer, without generating a token; we call this System 1.5 thinking. We propose SanSi, which turns a pre-trained looped language model into a typed decision model. The option probabilities are read after every loop, and every loop is trained with a proper scoring rule, so that one model serves every budget from one loop to eight in a single run. On 10,027 test decisions from 59 sources, SanSi reaches 72.0% accuracy: 13.5 points above a non-looped model of the same shape trained with the same recipe, 5.3 points above a newer non-looped model of its size, and 1.8 points below one with three times the parameters. On two depth-controlled tasks, loops extend the solvable depth beyond the depths seen in training, where the larger single-pass model fails. Used as the judge for policy optimization with reinforcement learning, without gold answers, SanSi raises the generator's F1 by 7.7 points.

The study of hardest and easiest fitness landscapes is an active area of research. Recently, Kaufmann, Larcher, Lengler and Zou conjectured that for the self-adjusting (1,lambda)-EA, Adversarial Dynamic BinVal (ADBV) is the hardest dynamic monotone function to optimize. We introduce the function Switching Dynamic BinVal (SDBV) which coincides with ADBV whenever the number of remaining zeros in the search point is strictly less than n/2, where n denotes the dimension of the search space. We show, using a combinatorial argument, that for the (1+1)-EA with any mutation rate p in [0,1], SDBV is drift-minimizing among the class of dynamic monotone functions. Our construction provides the first explicit example of an instance of the partially-ordered evolutionary algorithm (PO-EA) model with parameterized pessimism introduced by Colin, Doerr and F\'erey, building on work of Jansen. We further show that the (1+1)-EA optimizes SDBV in Theta(n^{3/2}) generations. Our simulations demonstrate matching runtimes for both static and self-adjusting (1,lambda) and (1+lambda)-EA. We further show, using an example of fixed dimension, that drift-minimization does not equal maximal runtime.

We introduce distributional dynamic programming (DP) methods for optimizing statistical functionals of the return distribution, with standard reinforcement learning as a special case. Previous distributional DP methods could optimize the same class of expected utilities as classic DP. To go beyond expected utilities, we combine distributional DP with stock augmentation, a technique previously introduced for classic DP in the context of risk-sensitive RL, where the MDP state is augmented with a statistic of the rewards obtained so far (since the first time step). We find that a number of recently studied problems can be formulated as stock-augmented return distribution optimization, and we show that we can use distributional DP to solve them. We analyze distributional value and policy iteration, with bounds and a study of what objectives these distributional DP methods can or cannot optimize. We describe a number of applications outlining how to use distributional DP to solve different stock-augmented return distribution optimization problems, for example maximizing conditional value-at-risk, and homeostatic regulation. To highlight the practical potential of stock-augmented return distribution optimization and distributional DP, we combine the core ideas of distributional value iteration with the deep RL agent DQN, and empirically evaluate it for solving instances of the applications discussed.

Portfolio optimization involves selecting asset weights to minimize a risk-reward objective, such as the portfolio variance in the classical minimum-variance framework. Sparse portfolio selection extends this by imposing a cardinality constraint: only k assets from a universe of p may be included. The standard approach models this problem as a mixed-integer quadratic program and relies on commercial solvers to find the optimal solution. However, the computational costs of such methods increase exponentially with k and p, making them too slow for problems of even moderate size. We propose a fast and scalable gradient-based approach that transforms the combinatorial sparse selection problem into a constrained continuous optimization task via Boolean relaxation, while preserving equivalence with the original problem on the set of binary points. Our algorithm employs a tunable parameter that transmutes the auxiliary objective from a convex to a concave function. This allows a stable convex starting point, followed by a controlled path toward a sparse binary solution as the tuning parameter increases and the objective moves toward concavity. In practice, our method matches commercial solvers in asset selection for most instances and, in rare instances, the solution differs by a few assets whilst showing a negligible error in portfolio variance.

Understanding how market participants react to shocks like scheduled macroeconomic news is crucial for both traders and policymakers. We develop a calibrated data generation process DGP that embeds four stylized trader archetypes retail, pension, institutional, and hedge funds into an extended CAPM augmented by CPI surprises. Each agents order size choice is driven by a softmax discrete choice rule over small, medium, and large trades, where utility depends on risk aversion, surprise magnitude, and liquidity. We aim to analyze each agent's reaction to shocks and Monte Carlo experiments show that higher information, lower aversion agents take systematically larger positions and achieve higher average wealth. Retail investors under react on average, exhibiting smaller allocations and more dispersed outcomes. And ambient liquidity amplifies the sensitivity of order flow to surprise shocks. Our framework offers a transparent benchmark for analyzing order flow dynamics around macro releases and suggests how real time flow data could inform news impact inference.

Most recommendation benchmarks evaluate how well a model imitates user behavior. In financial advisory, however, observed actions can be noisy or short-sighted under market volatility and may conflict with a user's long-term goals. Treating what users chose as the sole ground truth, therefore, conflates behavioral imitation with decision quality. We introduce Conv-FinRe, a conversational and longitudinal benchmark for stock recommendation that evaluates LLMs beyond behavior matching. Given an onboarding interview, step-wise market context, and advisory dialogues, models must generate rankings over a fixed investment horizon. Crucially, Conv-FinRe provides multi-view references that distinguish descriptive behavior from normative utility grounded in investor-specific risk preferences, enabling diagnosis of whether an LLM follows rational analysis, mimics user noise, or is driven by market momentum. We build the benchmark from real market data and human decision trajectories, instantiate controlled advisory conversations, and evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art LLMs. Results reveal a persistent tension between rational decision quality and behavioral alignment: models that perform well on utility-based ranking often fail to match user choices, whereas behaviorally aligned models can overfit short-term noise. The dataset is publicly released on Hugging Face, and the codebase is available on GitHub.