Daily Papers

Under standard graphical assumptions, the Markov boundary of a target variable is the smallest set of features that renders every other feature redundant. Once the boundary is observed, the target is conditionally independent of the rest of the table. This is a tempting object for tabular prediction, since it names exactly the columns a model should need. Yet modern regressors are still trained on the full feature set. We ask whether the Markov boundary is genuinely useful for prediction on SCM3K, a 3,450-task synthetic SCM benchmark with feature counts from 40 to 1000 and six SCM families, evaluated with six regressors. The answer is more nuanced than the theory suggests. Restricting a regressor to the oracle boundary often improves prediction substantially, and the improvement grows as the feature space becomes larger and sparser. But the natural pipeline of recovering the boundary with causal discovery and training on the recovered mask does not deliver. Existing estimators exhaust the compute budget before reaching the regime where the boundary helps most, and even where they run they rarely beat the full feature set. We trace this to three causes. Discovery optimizes structural recovery rather than prediction. False negatives and false positives carry sharply asymmetric predictive cost. The exact boundary is only one of many feature sets that beat all features. We then develop what these facts imply for prediction-aligned feature selection and for tabular models that learn to use causal structure.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

Black-box LLM distillation is usually evaluated as an output-matching problem: a student is considered successful when its responses are semantically similar to, or task-consistent with, those of a teacher. However, output similarity does not imply that the student is behaviorally indistinguishable from the model it imitates. We introduce bounded behavioral indistinguishability, formalized as (ε,q,t,A)-behavioral indistinguishability over an explicit prompt distribution, where ε bounds distinguishing advantage, q bounds oracle queries, t bounds computation, and A denotes the adversary class. We instantiate this notion on Qwen and Llama teacher-student pairs using a controlled 5,000-prompt behavioral probe suite. For each family, we compare the teacher with both the base student and the LoRA-distilled student, measuring whether distillation reduces distinguishability rather than merely improving similarity. LoRA raises semantic similarity from 0.788 to 0.862 for Qwen and from 0.814 to 0.874 for Llama. Yet adversarial evaluation reveals remaining behavioral differences: learned discriminators retain nonzero advantage, and pairwise category analysis shows artifacts concentrated in style/format, robustness, and domain-technical prompts. A pairwise teacher-identification adversary confirms this trend. With a different-family Llama judge and A/B-swap consistency filtering, Qwen distinguishing advantage drops from 0.158 for the base student to 0.081 after LoRA distillation. Query-budget experiments show that disagreement-guided acquisition does not consistently outperform stratified random sampling, indicating that coverage and diversity remain strong baselines. Our results show that semantic fidelity is useful but insufficient: black-box LLM distillation requires bounded, adversarial, and category-aware evaluation.

LLM pretraining is shifting from a compute-bound to a data-bound regime, where available human (organic) text falls far short of scaling demands. However, reaching the data-bound regime does not mean the model has fully utilized its organic corpus. In this paper, we introduce SynPro, a synthetic data generation framework that helps LLMs more thoroughly learn from limited organic data. SynPro applies two operations, rephrasing and reformat, that present the same organic source in diverse forms to facilitate deeper learning without introducing external information. Both generators are optimized via reinforcement learning with quality, faithfulness, and data influence rewards, and are continuously updated as pretraining plateaus to target content the model has yet to absorb. We pretrain 400M and 1.1B models with 10% of their Chinchilla-optimal tokens (0.8B and 2.2B) from DCLM-Baseline, reflecting a realistic data-bound regime in frontier pretraining. Our results reveal that organic data is significantly underutilized by standard repetition: SynPro unlocks 3.7-5.2x the effective tokens of repetition, even surpassing the non-data-bound oracle that trains on equivalent unique data at the 1.1B scale. Analyses confirm that faithful, model-aware synthesis sustains data-bound scaling without causing distribution collapse. We open-source our code at https://github.com/cxcscmu/SynPro.

In this paper, we propose new randomized algorithms for estimating the two-to-infinity and one-to-two norms in a matrix-free setting, using only matrix-vector multiplications. Our methods are based on appropriate modifications of Hutchinson's diagonal estimator and its Hutch++ version. We provide oracle complexity bounds for both modifications. We further illustrate the practical utility of our algorithms for Jacobian-based regularization in deep neural network training on image classification tasks. We also demonstrate that our methodology can be applied to mitigate the effect of adversarial attacks in the domain of recommender systems.

Prompt-based classifiers are an attractive approach for zero-shot classification. However, the precise choice of the prompt template and label words can largely influence performance, with semantically equivalent settings often showing notable performance difference. This discrepancy can be partly attributed to word biases, where the classifier may be biased towards classes. To address this problem, it is possible to optimise classification thresholds on a labelled data set, however, this mitigates some of the advantages of prompt-based classifiers. This paper instead approaches this problem by examining the expected marginal probabilities of the classes. Here, probabilities are reweighted to have a uniform prior over classes, in an unsupervised fashion. Further, we draw a theoretical connection between the class priors and the language models' word prior, and offer the ability to set a threshold in a zero-resource fashion. We show that matching class priors correlates strongly with the oracle upper bound performance and demonstrate large consistent performance gains for prompt settings over a range of NLP tasks.

We introduce Synthetic Bootstrapped Pretraining (SBP), a language model (LM) pretraining procedure that first learns a model of relations between documents from the pretraining dataset and then leverages it to synthesize a vast new corpus for joint training. While the standard pretraining teaches LMs to learn causal correlations among tokens within a single document, it is not designed to efficiently model the rich, learnable inter-document correlations that can potentially lead to better performance. We validate SBP by designing a compute-matched pretraining setup and pretrain a 3B-parameter model on up to 1T tokens from scratch. We find SBP consistently improves upon a strong repetition baseline and delivers a significant fraction of performance improvement attainable by an oracle upper bound with access to 20x more unique data. Qualitative analysis reveals that the synthesized documents go beyond mere paraphrases -- SBP first abstracts a core concept from the seed material and then crafts a new narration on top of it. Besides strong empirical performance, SBP admits a natural Bayesian interpretation: the synthesizer implicitly learns to abstract the latent concepts shared between related documents.

The prefill stage in long-context LLM inference remains a computational bottleneck. Recent token-ranking heuristics accelerate inference by selectively processing a subset of semantically relevant tokens. However, existing methods suffer from unstable token importance estimation, often varying between layers. Evaluating token-ranking quality independently from heuristic-specific architectures is challenging. To address this, we introduce an Answer-Informed Oracle, which defines ground-truth token importance by measuring attention from generated answers back to the prompt. This oracle reveals that existing heuristics exhibit high variance across layers: rankings can degrade sharply at specific layers, a failure mode invisible to end-to-end benchmarks. The diagnosis suggests a simple fix: aggregate scores across layers rather than relying on any single one. We implement this as Cross-Layer Attention Aggregation (CLAA), which closes the gap to the oracle upper bound and reduces Time-to-First-Token (TTFT) by up to 39\% compared to the Full KV Cache baseline.

Code-switching (CS) phenomenon occurs when words or phrases from different languages are alternated in a single sentence. Due to data scarcity, building an effective CS Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system remains challenging. In this paper, we propose to enhance CS-ASR systems by utilizing rich unsupervised monolingual speech data within a semi-supervised learning framework, particularly when access to CS data is limited. To achieve this, we establish a general paradigm for applying noisy student training (NST) to the CS-ASR task. Specifically, we introduce the LLM-Filter, which leverages well-designed prompt templates to activate the correction capability of large language models (LLMs) for monolingual data selection and pseudo-labels refinement during NST. Our experiments on the supervised ASRU-CS and unsupervised AISHELL-2 and LibriSpeech datasets show that our method not only achieves significant improvements over supervised and semi-supervised learning baselines for the CS task, but also attains better performance compared with the fully-supervised oracle upper-bound on the CS English part. Additionally, we further investigate the influence of accent on AESRC dataset and demonstrate that our method can get achieve additional benefits when the monolingual data contains relevant linguistic characteristic.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have benefited enormously from scaling, yet these gains are bounded by five fundamental limitations: (1) hallucination, (2) context compression, (3) reasoning degradation, (4) retrieval fragility, and (5) multimodal misalignment. While existing surveys describe these phenomena empirically, they lack a rigorous theoretical synthesis connecting them to the foundational limits of computation, information, and learning. This work closes that gap by presenting a unified, proof-informed framework that formalizes the innate theoretical ceilings of LLM scaling. First, computability and uncomputability imply an irreducible residue of error: for any computably enumerable model family, diagonalization guarantees inputs on which some model must fail, and undecidable queries (e.g., halting-style tasks) induce infinite failure sets for all computable predictors. Second, information-theoretic and statistical constraints bound attainable accuracy even on decidable tasks, finite description length enforces compression error, and long-tail factual knowledge requires prohibitive sample complexity. Third, geometric and computational effects compress long contexts far below their nominal size due to positional under-training, encoding attenuation, and softmax crowding. We further show how likelihood-based training favors pattern completion over inference, how retrieval under token limits suffers from semantic drift and coupling noise, and how multimodal scaling inherits shallow cross-modal alignment. Across sections, we pair theorems and empirical evidence to outline where scaling helps, where it saturates, and where it cannot progress, providing both theoretical foundations and practical mitigation paths like bounded-oracle retrieval, positional curricula, and sparse or hierarchical attention.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) such as LLaVA have shown strong performance in visual-linguistic reasoning. These models first embed images into a fixed large number of visual tokens and then feed them into a Large Language Model (LLM). However, this design causes an excessive number of tokens for dense visual scenarios such as high-resolution images and videos, leading to great inefficiency. While token pruning/merging methods do exist, they produce a single length output for each image and do not afford flexibility in trading off information density v.s. efficiency. Inspired by the concept of Matryoshka Dolls, we propose M3: Matryoshka Multimodal Models, which learns to represent visual content as nested sets of visual tokens that capture information across multiple coarse-to-fine granularities. Our approach offers several unique benefits for LMMs: (1) One can explicitly control the visual granularity per test instance during inference, e.g. , adjusting the number of tokens used to represent an image based on the anticipated complexity or simplicity of the content; (2) M3 provides a framework for analyzing the granularity needed for existing datasets, where we find that COCO-style benchmarks only need around ~9 visual tokens to obtain accuracy similar to that of using all 576 tokens; (3) Our approach provides a foundation to explore the best trade-off between performance and visual token length at sample level, where our investigation reveals that a large gap exists between the oracle upper bound and current fixed-scale representations.

Tool-augmented language-model agents execute multi-step workflows over external systems, resolving an entity once and then acting on it across subsequent steps. Prior work shows that in single-step actions, agents select the correct tool but bind it to the wrong entity 24-26% of the time. We study what happens to entity bindings over time: do they stay correct, silently drift to a different entity, or, if wrong from the start, propagate and compound? We formalize binding drift (correct at step 1, wrong later) as distinct from error propagation (wrong at step 1, carried forward), and score them on disjoint workflow sets so the two cannot be conflated. In a controlled multi-step testbed (200 workflows, 580 entity-binding-scored steps, four enterprise domains, eight model backends spanning small to frontier), we find: (1) under controlled error injection, an entity lock (the intuitive "persist the first binding" fix) amplifies wrong actions from 907 to 2,746 (3.0x; bootstrap 95% CI [2.8, 3.3]), because it faithfully carries the seeded wrong entity into every later step; (2) the amplification reaches 8.5x on the most affected model (Claude Opus 4.5); (3) a practical LLM-based re-verifier (a single cheap second model call re-reading the original instruction) reduces wrong actions by 79% (0.21x; CI [0.18, 0.25]), closing the gap to within 1 percentage point of an oracle upper-bound (0.20x); and (4) in the natural (non-injected) setting, baseline agents drift on 18% of eligible workflows, with the per-step error rate rising across steps. Persistence and re-verification are not interchangeable: a defense that eliminates drift can worsen propagation, and a practical re-verifier nearly matches oracle recovery.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced rapidly, yet heterogeneity in architecture, alignment strategies, and efficiency means that no single model is uniformly superior across tasks. In practical deployments, workloads span lightweight OCR to complex multimodal reasoning; using one MLLM for all queries either over-provisions compute on easy instances or sacrifices accuracy on hard ones. Query-level model selection (routing) addresses this tension, but extending routing from text-only LLMs to MLLMs is nontrivial due to modality fusion, wide variation in computational cost across models, and the absence of a standardized, budget-aware evaluation. We present MMR-Bench, a unified benchmark that isolates the multimodal routing problem and enables comparison under fixed candidate sets and cost models. MMR-Bench provides (i) a controlled environment with modality-aware inputs and variable compute budgets, (ii) a broad suite of vision-language tasks covering OCR, general VQA, and multimodal math reasoning, and (iii) strong single-model reference, oracle upper bounds, and representative routing policies. Using MMR-Bench, we show that incorporating multimodal signals improves routing quality. Empirically, these cues improve the cost-accuracy frontier and enable the routed system to exceed the strongest single model's accuracy at roughly 33% of its cost. Furthermore, policies trained on a subset of models and tasks generalize zero-shot to new datasets and text-only benchmarks without retuning, establishing MMR-Bench as a foundation for studying adaptive multimodal model selection and efficient MLLM deployment. The code will be available at: https://github.com/Hunter-Wrynn/MMR-Bench.

LLM-based autonomous agents lack persistent procedural memory: they re-derive solutions from scratch even when structurally identical tasks have been solved before. We present APEX-EM, a non-parametric online learning framework that accumulates, retrieves, and reuses structured procedural plans without modifying model weights. APEX-EM introduces: (1) a structured experience representation encoding the full procedural-episodic trace of each execution -- planning steps, artifacts, iteration history with error analysis, and quality scores; (2) a Plan-Retrieve-Generate-Iterate-Ingest (PRGII) workflow with Task Verifiers providing multi-dimensional reward signals; and (3) a dual-outcome Experience Memory with hybrid retrieval combining semantic search, structural signature matching, and plan DAG traversal -- enabling cross-domain transfer between tasks sharing no lexical overlap but analogous operational structure. Successful experiences serve as positive in-context examples; failures as negative examples with structured error annotations. We evaluate on BigCodeBench, KGQAGen-10k, and Humanity's Last Exam using Claude Sonnet 4.5 and Opus 4.5. On KGQAGen-10k, APEX-EM achieves 89.6% accuracy versus 41.3% without memory (+48.3pp), surpassing the oracle-retrieval upper bound (84.9%). On BigCodeBench, it reaches 83.3% SR from a 53.9% baseline (+29.4pp), exceeding MemRL's +11.0pp gain under comparable frozen-backbone conditions (noting backbone differences controlled for in our analysis). On HLE, entity graph retrieval reaches 48.0% from 25.2% (+22.8pp). Ablations show component value is task-dependent: rich judge feedback is negligible for code generation but critical for structured queries (+10.3pp), while binary-signal iteration partially compensates for weaker feedback.

We introduce Psi-Turing Machines (Psi-TM): classical Turing machines equipped with a constant-depth introspection interface iota and an explicit per-step information budget B(d,n)=c,dlog_2 n . With the interface frozen, we develop an information-theoretic lower-bound toolkit: Budget counting, Psi -Fooling, and Psi -Fano, with worked examples L_k and L_k^{phase} . We prove an oracle-relative separation P^{Psi} neq NP^{Psi} and a strict depth hierarchy, reinforced by an Anti-Simulation Hook that rules out polynomial emulation of iota_k using many calls to iota_{k-1} under the budget regime. We also present two independent platforms (Psi-decision trees and interface-constrained circuits IC-AC^{0}/IC-NC^{1}) and bridges that transfer bounds among machine, tree, and circuit with explicit poly/log losses. The model preserves classical computational power outside iota yet enables precise oracle-aware statements about barriers (relativization; partial/conditional progress on natural proofs and proof complexity). The aim is a standardized minimal introspection interface with clearly accounted information budgets.

The illusion phenomenon of large language models (LLMs) is the core obstacle to their reliable deployment. This article formalizes the large language model as a probabilistic Turing machine by constructing a "computational necessity hierarchy", and for the first time proves the illusions are inevitable on diagonalization, incomputability, and information theory boundaries supported by the new "learner pump lemma". However, we propose two "escape routes": one is to model Retrieval Enhanced Generations (RAGs) as oracle machines, proving their absolute escape through "computational jumps", providing the first formal theory for the effectiveness of RAGs; The second is to formalize continuous learning as an "internalized oracle" mechanism and implement this path through a novel neural game theory framework. Finally, this article proposes a feasible new principle for artificial intelligence security - Computational Class Alignment (CCA), which requires strict matching between task complexity and the actual computing power of the system, providing theoretical support for the secure application of artificial intelligence.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Mixture of experts (MoE) has a well-principled finite mixture model construction for prediction, allowing the gating network (mixture weights) to learn from the predictors (explanatory variables) together with the experts' network (mixture component densities). We investigate the estimation properties of MoEs in a high-dimensional setting, where the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size, for which the literature lacks computational and especially theoretical results. We consider the class of finite MoE models with softmax gating functions and Gaussian regression experts, and focus on the theoretical properties of their l_1-regularized estimation via the Lasso. We provide a lower bound on the regularization parameter of the Lasso penalty that ensures an l_1-oracle inequality is satisfied by the Lasso estimator according to the Kullback--Leibler loss. We further state an l_1-ball oracle inequality for the l_1-penalized maximum likelihood estimator from the model selection.

Inference-time scaling via chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is a major driver of state-of-the-art LLM performance, but it comes with substantial latency and compute costs. We address a fundamental theoretical question: how many reasoning tokens are required to solve a problem as input size grows? By extending the bounded attention prefix oracle (BAPO) model--an abstraction of LLMs that quantifies the information flow required to solve a task--we prove lower bounds on the CoT tokens required for three canonical BAPO-hard tasks: binary majority, triplet matching, and graph reachability. We show that each requires Ω(n) reasoning tokens when the input size is n. We complement these results with matching or near-matching upper bounds via explicit constructions. Finally, our experiments with frontier reasoning models show approximately linear reasoning token scaling on these tasks and failures when constrained to smaller reasoning budgets, consistent with our theoretical lower bounds. Together, our results identify fundamental bottlenecks in inference-time compute through CoT and offer a principled tool for analyzing optimal reasoning length.

We develop novel empirical Bernstein inequalities for the variance of bounded random variables. Our inequalities hold under constant conditional variance and mean, without further assumptions like independence or identical distribution of the random variables, making them suitable for sequential decision making contexts. The results are instantiated for both the batch setting (where the sample size is fixed) and the sequential setting (where the sample size is a stopping time). Our bounds are asymptotically sharp: when the data are iid, our CI adpats optimally to both unknown mean μ and unknown V[(X-μ)^2], meaning that the first order term of our CI exactly matches that of the oracle Bernstein inequality which knows those quantities. We compare our results to a widely used (non-sharp) concentration inequality for the variance based on self-bounding random variables, showing both the theoretical gains and improved empirical performance of our approach. We finally extend our methods to work in any separable Hilbert space.

Although upper bound guarantees for bilevel optimization have been widely studied, progress on lower bounds has been limited due to the complexity of the bilevel structure. In this work, we focus on the smooth nonconvex-strongly-convex setting and develop new hard instances that yield nontrivial lower bounds under deterministic and stochastic first-order oracle models. In the deterministic case, we prove that any first-order zero-respecting algorithm requires at least Ω(κ^{3/2}ε^{-2}) oracle calls to find an ε-accurate stationary point, improving the optimal lower bounds known for single-level nonconvex optimization and for nonconvex-strongly-convex min-max problems. In the stochastic case, we show that at least Ω(κ^{5/2}ε^{-4}) stochastic oracle calls are necessary, again strengthening the best known bounds in related settings. Our results expose substantial gaps between current upper and lower bounds for bilevel optimization and suggest that even simplified regimes, such as those with quadratic lower-level objectives, warrant further investigation toward understanding the optimal complexity of bilevel optimization under standard first-order oracles.

Modern LLMs are increasingly accessed via black-box APIs, requiring users to transmit sensitive prompts, outputs, and fine-tuning data to external providers, creating a critical privacy risk at the API boundary. We introduce AlienLM, a deployable API-only privacy layer that protects text by translating it into an Alien Language via a vocabulary-scale bijection, enabling lossless recovery on the client side. Using only standard fine-tuning APIs, Alien Adaptation Training (AAT) adapts target models to operate directly on alienized inputs. Across four LLM backbones and seven benchmarks, AlienLM retains over 81\% of plaintext-oracle performance on average, substantially outperforming random-bijection and character-level baselines. Under adversaries with access to model weights, corpus statistics, and learning-based inverse translation, recovery attacks reconstruct fewer than 0.22\% of alienized tokens. Our results demonstrate a practical pathway for privacy-preserving LLM deployment under API-only access, substantially reducing plaintext exposure while maintaining task performance.

The explosion of large-scale data in fields such as finance, e-commerce, and social media has outstripped the processing capabilities of single-machine systems, driving the need for distributed statistical inference methods. Traditional approaches to distributed inference often struggle with achieving true sparsity in high-dimensional datasets and involve high computational costs. We propose a novel, two-stage, distributed best subset selection algorithm to address these issues. Our approach starts by efficiently estimating the active set while adhering to the ell_0 norm-constrained surrogate likelihood function, effectively reducing dimensionality and isolating key variables. A refined estimation within the active set follows, ensuring sparse estimates and matching the minimax ell_2 error bound. We introduce a new splicing technique for adaptive parameter selection to tackle subproblems under ell_0 constraints and a Generalized Information Criterion (GIC). Our theoretical and numerical studies show that the proposed algorithm correctly finds the true sparsity pattern, has the oracle property, and greatly lowers communication costs. This is a big step forward in distributed sparse estimation.

We present a machine-checked formalization of structurally governed AI workflow architectures and prove that effect-level governance can be imposed without reducing internal computational expressivity. Using Interaction Trees in Rocq 8.19, we define a governance operator G that mediates all effectful directives, including memory access, external calls, and oracle (LLM) queries. Our development compiles with 0 admitted lemmas and consists of 36 modules, ~12,000 lines of Rocq, and 454 theorems. We establishseven properties: (P1) governed Turing completeness, (P2) governed oracle expressivity, (P3) a decidability boundary in which governance predicates are total and closed under Boolean composition while semantic program properties remain non-trivial and undecidable by governance, (P4) goal preservation for permitted executions, (P5) expressive minimality of primitive capabilities (compute, memory, reasoning, external call, observability), (P6) subsumption asymmetry showing structural governance strictly subsumes content-level filtering, and (P7) semantic transparency: on all executions where governance permits, the governed interpretation is observationally equivalent (modulo governance-only events) to the ungoverned interpretation. Together, these results show that governance and computational expressivity are orthogonal dimensions: governance constrains the effect boundary of programs while remaining semantically transparent to internal computation.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) allocate substantial inference-time compute to Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning, improving performance on mathematics, scientific QA, and tool usage. However, this introduces overthinking: LRMs often reach a correct intermediate solution, continue reasoning, and overwrite it with an incorrect answer. We first demonstrate that oracle stopping--where we inject </think> at every sentence boundary and select the best stopping point in hindsight--improves average accuracy by 8% while reducing thinking tokens by 72%, exposing substantial overthinking. Motivated by this finding, we propose ThinkBrake, which monitors the log-probability margin between the top continuation token and </think> at sentence boundaries, stopping reasoning when this margin narrows. ThinkBrake requires no training and achieves favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-offs across math, scientific QA, and tool usage benchmarks, reducing thinking token usage by up to 30%. Furthermore, we provide theoretical analysis showing that ThinkBrake is equivalent to test-time realignment with a reward bonus for the </think> token.

Existing LLM agent frameworks lack formal semantics: there is no principled way to determine whether an agent configuration is well-formed or will terminate. We present λ_A, a typed lambda calculus for agent composition that extends the simply-typed lambda calculus with oracle calls, bounded fixpoints (the ReAct loop), probabilistic choice, and mutable environments. We prove type safety, termination of bounded fixpoints, and soundness of derived lint rules, with partial Coq mechanization (1,567 lines, 43 completed proofs). As a practical application, we derive a lint tool that detects structural configuration errors directly from the operational semantics. An evaluation on 835 real-world GitHub agent configurations shows that 94.1% are structurally incomplete under λ_A, with YAML-only lint precision at 54%, rising to 96--100% under joint YAML+Python AST analysis on 175 samples. This gap quantifies, for the first time, the degree of semantic entanglement between declarative configuration and imperative code in the agent ecosystem. We further show that five mainstream paradigms (LangGraph, CrewAI, AutoGen, OpenAI SDK, Dify) embed as typed λ_A fragments, establishing λ_A as a unifying calculus for LLM agent composition.

We explore the relations between the zeta distribution and algorithmic information theory via a new model of the transfer learning problem. The program distribution is approximated by a zeta distribution with parameter near 1. We model the training sequence as a stochastic process. We analyze the upper temporal bound for learning a training sequence and its entropy rates, assuming an oracle for the transfer learning problem. We argue from empirical evidence that power-law models are suitable for natural processes. Four sequence models are proposed. Random typing model is like no-free lunch where transfer learning does not work. Zeta process independently samples programs from the zeta distribution. A model of common sub-programs inspired by genetics uses a database of sub-programs. An evolutionary zeta process samples mutations from Zeta distribution. The analysis of stochastic processes inspired by evolution suggest that AI may be feasible in nature, countering no-free lunch sort of arguments.

Multilingual Retrieval-Augmented Generation (mRAG) leverages cross-lingual evidence to ground Large Language Models (LLMs) in global knowledge. However, we show that current mRAG systems suffer from a language bias during reranking, systematically favoring English and the query's native language. By introducing an estimated oracle evidence analysis, we quantify a substantial performance gap between existing rerankers and the achievable upper bound. Further analysis reveals a critical distributional mismatch: while optimal predictions require evidence scattered across multiple languages, current systems systematically suppress such ``answer-critical'' documents, thereby limiting downstream generation performance. To bridge this gap, we propose \textbf{Language-Agnostic Utility-driven Reranker Alignment (LAURA)}, which aligns multilingual evidence ranking with downstream generative utility. Experiments across diverse languages and generation models show that LAURA effectively mitigates language bias and consistently improves mRAG performance.

Despite their many successes, transformer-based large language models (LLMs) continue to struggle with tasks that require complex reasoning over large parts of their input. We argue that these failures arise due to capacity limits on the accurate flow of information within LLMs. To formalize this issue, we introduce the bounded attention prefix oracle (BAPO) model, a new computational framework that models bandwidth constraints on attention heads, the mechanism for internal communication in LLMs. We show that several important reasoning problems like graph reachability require high communication bandwidth for BAPOs to solve; we call these problems BAPO-hard. Our experiments corroborate our theoretical predictions: GPT-4o, Claude, and Gemini succeed on BAPO-easy tasks and fail even on relatively small BAPO-hard tasks. BAPOs also reveal another benefit of chain of thought (CoT): we prove that breaking down a task using CoT can turn any BAPO-hard problem into a BAPO-easy one. Our results offer principled explanations for key LLM failures and suggest directions for architectures and inference methods that mitigate bandwidth limits.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Large language models are moving from static text generators toward real-world decision-support systems, where forecasting is a composite capability that links information gathering, evidence integration, situational judgment, and action-oriented decision making. This capability is in broad demand across finance, policy, industry, and scientific research, yet its evaluation remains difficult: live benchmarks evaluate forecasts before answers exist, making them the cleanest way to measure forecasting ability, but they expire once events resolve; retrospective benchmarks are reproducible, but they cannot reliably distinguish genuine forecasting from facts a model may have already learned during pretraining. Prompting models to "pretend not to know" cannot replace a genuine knowledge boundary. We propose OracleProto, a reproducible framework for evaluating LLM native forecasting capability. OracleProto reconstructs resolved events into time-bounded forecasting samples by combining model-cutoff-aligned sample admission, tool-level temporal masking, content-level leakage detection, discrete answer normalization, and hierarchical scoring. Instantiated on a FutureX-Past-derived dataset with six contemporary LLMs, OracleProto distinguishes forecasting quality, sampling stability, and cost efficiency under controlled information boundaries, while reducing residual leakage to the 1% level, an order of magnitude below tool-only temporal filtering. OracleProto turns LLM forecasting from one-off evaluation into an auditable, reusable, and trainable dataset-level capability, providing a unified interface for fair cross-model comparison and a controlled signal source for downstream SFT and RL. Code and data are available at https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto and https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto.

In this work, we study first-order algorithms for solving Bilevel Optimization (BO) where the objective functions are smooth but possibly nonconvex in both levels and the variables are restricted to closed convex sets. As a first step, we study the landscape of BO through the lens of penalty methods, in which the upper- and lower-level objectives are combined in a weighted sum with penalty parameter sigma > 0. In particular, we establish a strong connection between the penalty function and the hyper-objective by explicitly characterizing the conditions under which the values and derivatives of the two must be O(sigma)-close. A by-product of our analysis is the explicit formula for the gradient of hyper-objective when the lower-level problem has multiple solutions under minimal conditions, which could be of independent interest. Next, viewing the penalty formulation as O(sigma)-approximation of the original BO, we propose first-order algorithms that find an epsilon-stationary solution by optimizing the penalty formulation with sigma = O(epsilon). When the perturbed lower-level problem uniformly satisfies the small-error proximal error-bound (EB) condition, we propose a first-order algorithm that converges to an epsilon-stationary point of the penalty function, using in total O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-7}) accesses to first-order (stochastic) gradient oracles when the oracle is deterministic and oracles are noisy, respectively. Under an additional assumption on stochastic oracles, we show that the algorithm can be implemented in a fully {\it single-loop} manner, i.e., with O(1) samples per iteration, and achieves the improved oracle-complexity of O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-5}), respectively.

The "end-to-end" label for LLMs is a misnomer. In practice, they depend on a non-differentiable decoding process that requires laborious, hand-tuning of hyperparameters like temperature and top-p. This paper introduces AutoDeco, a novel architecture that enables truly "end-to-end" generation by learning to control its own decoding strategy. We augment the standard transformer with lightweight heads that, at each step, dynamically predict context-specific temperature and top-p values alongside the next-token logits. This approach transforms decoding into a parametric, token-level process, allowing the model to self-regulate its sampling strategy within a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments on eight benchmarks, we demonstrate that AutoDeco not only significantly outperforms default decoding strategies but also achieves performance comparable to an oracle-tuned baseline derived from "hacking the test set"-a practical upper bound for any static method. Crucially, we uncover an emergent capability for instruction-based decoding control: the model learns to interpret natural language commands (e.g., "generate with low randomness") and adjusts its predicted temperature and top-p on a token-by-token basis, opening a new paradigm for steerable and interactive LLM decoding.

A growing line of work equips large language model (LLM) agents with graph neural networks (GNNs) as callable tools, assuming the agent exercises judgment over when and how much to rely on such a tool. We test this directly. We expose a frozen GNN to a ReAct-style LLM agent as an explicit tool and measure, on node classification over a text-attributed graph (ogbn-arxiv, replicated on WikiCS), whether the agent uses the tool or merely obeys it. We find the agent does not exercise judgment: its predictions agree with the raw GNN's 97.6-99.2% of the time (5 seeds), collapsing into a GNN parrot that adopts the tool's output wholesale and bypasses its own reasoning. Sweeping backbone capability (Qwen2.5 0.5B-7B), the deference is not a weak-model artifact: among models able to invoke the tool, agreement rises with capability (0.60 to 0.98 from 1.5B to 7B). Crucially, the cost of deference does not shrink as capability grows and grows where alternatives emerge: a per-node oracle over the available actions beats the parrot by 0.09-0.18 at 3B and 0.12-0.22 at 7B, roughly doubling at high homophily, because the parrot is pinned to the frozen GNN while the agent's alternatives improve; at 7B a simple neighbour-label tool overtakes the GNN at high homophily (0.81 vs 0.71) yet the agent still defers. A simple selective-invocation gate recovers about half of that high-homophily gap (0.71 to 0.83) but yields no net global gain, and held-out estimates bound the best achievable gate over standard test-time features to at most a third of the oracle headroom: reliable selective invocation looks limited by available information, not merely router design. Our results are a cautionary measurement: evaluations of agent+tool systems cannot assume the agent adds judgment on top of the tool, and selective invocation must be designed in rather than expected to emerge from scale.

Autoregressive generation in large language models (LLMs) conventionally decodes from the final layer, assuming that deeper representations yield more reliable next-token predictions. We revisit this assumption by revealing a recurring Guess-Refine-Perturb dynamic: early layers form coarse guesses, intermediate layers refine reasoning-relevant semantics, and final layers can perturb these refined predictions toward generic or alignment-preferred tokens. We introduce Confident Decoding, a training-free decoding strategy that dynamically selects the most reliable near-final layer through entropy-guided conservative backward search. We further provide a theoretical formulation of layer selection as an optimal stopping problem, showing that under bounded projection noise and dominant late-stage alignment perturbation, our search rule filters perturbation while bounding the loss relative to the oracle refinement layer. Experiments across dense and Mixture-of-Experts LLMs demonstrate consistent gains on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including GPQA-Diamond, Omni-MATH, and HLE, with zero memory overhead and less than 2% latency increase. These results suggest dynamically bypassing final-layer perturbations can unlock stronger reasoning behavior from aligned LLMs.

A unified framework for first-order optimization algorithms fornonconvex unconstrained optimization is proposed that uses adaptivelypreconditioned gradients and includes popular methods such as full anddiagonal AdaGrad, AdaNorm, as well as adpative variants of Shampoo andMuon. This framework also allows combining heterogeneous geometriesacross different groups of variables while preserving a unifiedconvergence analysis. A fully stochastic global rate-of-convergenceanalysis is conducted for all methods in the framework, with andwithout two types of momentum, using reasonable assumptions on thevariance of the gradient oracle and without assuming boundedstochastic gradients or small enough stepsize.

In this paper, we study quantum Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams(OBDD) model; it is a restricted version of read-once quantum branching programs, with respect to "width" complexity. It is known that the maximal gap between deterministic and quantum complexities is exponential. But there are few examples of functions with such a gap. We present a new technique ("reordering") for proving lower bounds and upper bounds for OBDD with an arbitrary order of input variables if we have similar bounds for the natural order. Using this transformation, we construct a total function REQ such that the deterministic OBDD complexity of it is at least 2^{Ω(n / log n)}, and the quantum OBDD complexity of it is at most O(n^2/log n). It is the biggest known gap for explicit functions not representable by OBDDs of a linear width. Another function(shifted equality function) allows us to obtain a gap 2^{Ω(n)} vs O(n^2). Moreover, we prove the bounded error quantum and probabilistic OBDD width hierarchies for complexity classes of Boolean functions. Additionally, using "reordering" method we extend a hierarchy for read-k-times Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams (k-OBDD) of polynomial width, for k = o(n / log^3 n). We prove a similar hierarchy for bounded error probabilistic k-OBDDs of polynomial, superpolynomial and subexponential width. The extended abstract of this work was presented on International Computer Science Symposium in Russia, CSR 2017, Kazan, Russia, June 8 -- 12, 2017

This paper considers the problem of combinatorial multi-armed bandits with semi-bandit feedback and a cardinality constraint on the super-arm size. Existing algorithms for solving this problem typically involve two key sub-routines: (1) a parameter estimation routine that sequentially estimates a set of base-arm parameters, and (2) a super-arm selection policy for selecting a subset of base arms deemed optimal based on these parameters. State-of-the-art algorithms assume access to an exact oracle for super-arm selection with unbounded computational power. At each instance, this oracle evaluates a list of score functions, the number of which grows as low as linearly and as high as exponentially with the number of arms. This can be prohibitive in the regime of a large number of arms. This paper introduces a novel realistic alternative to the perfect oracle. This algorithm uses a combination of group-testing for selecting the super arms and quantized Thompson sampling for parameter estimation. Under a general separability assumption on the reward function, the proposed algorithm reduces the complexity of the super-arm-selection oracle to be logarithmic in the number of base arms while achieving the same regret order as the state-of-the-art algorithms that use exact oracles. This translates to at least an exponential reduction in complexity compared to the oracle-based approaches.

The problem of minimizing the maximum of N convex, Lipschitz functions plays significant roles in optimization and machine learning. It has a series of results, with the most recent one requiring O(Nepsilon^{-2/3} + epsilon^{-8/3}) queries to a first-order oracle to compute an epsilon-suboptimal point. On the other hand, quantum algorithms for optimization are rapidly advancing with speedups shown on many important optimization problems. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study for quantum algorithms and lower bounds for minimizing the maximum of N convex, Lipschitz functions. On one hand, we develop quantum algorithms with an improved complexity bound of O(Nepsilon^{-5/3} + epsilon^{-8/3}). On the other hand, we prove that quantum algorithms must take Omega(Nepsilon^{-2/3}) queries to a first order quantum oracle, showing that our dependence on N is optimal up to poly-logarithmic factors.

We study regret minimization for reinforcement learning (RL) in Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs) with context in hindsight. We design a novel model-based algorithmic framework which can be instantiated with both a model-optimistic and a value-optimistic solver. We prove an O(mathsf{Var^star M Gamma S A K}) regret bound where O hides logarithm factors, M is the number of contexts, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, K is the number of episodes, Gamma le S is the maximum transition degree of any state-action pair, and Var^star is a variance quantity describing the determinism of the LMDP. The regret bound only scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound for LMDP. This is also the first problem-dependent regret bound for LMDP. Key in our proof is an analysis of the total variance of alpha vectors (a generalization of value functions), which is handled with a truncation method. We complement our positive result with a novel Omega(mathsf{Var^star M S A K}) regret lower bound with Gamma = 2, which shows our upper bound minimax optimal when Gamma is a constant for the class of variance-bounded LMDPs. Our lower bound relies on new constructions of hard instances and an argument inspired by the symmetrization technique from theoretical computer science, both of which are technically different from existing lower bound proof for MDPs, and thus can be of independent interest.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

Quantum algorithms for optimization problems are of general interest. Despite recent progress in classical lower bounds for nonconvex optimization under different settings and quantum lower bounds for convex optimization, quantum lower bounds for nonconvex optimization are still widely open. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of quantum query lower bounds on finding epsilon-approximate stationary points of nonconvex functions, and we consider the following two important settings: 1) having access to p-th order derivatives; or 2) having access to stochastic gradients. The classical query lower bounds is Omegabig(epsilon^{-1+p{p}}big) regarding the first setting, and Omega(epsilon^{-4}) regarding the second setting (or Omega(epsilon^{-3}) if the stochastic gradient function is mean-squared smooth). In this paper, we extend all these classical lower bounds to the quantum setting. They match the classical algorithmic results respectively, demonstrating that there is no quantum speedup for finding epsilon-stationary points of nonconvex functions with p-th order derivative inputs or stochastic gradient inputs, whether with or without the mean-squared smoothness assumption. Technically, our quantum lower bounds are obtained by showing that the sequential nature of classical hard instances in all these settings also applies to quantum queries, preventing any quantum speedup other than revealing information of the stationary points sequentially.

We study the problem of counting the number of distinct elements in a dataset subject to the constraint of differential privacy. We consider the challenging setting of person-level DP (a.k.a. user-level DP) where each person may contribute an unbounded number of items and hence the sensitivity is unbounded. Our approach is to compute a bounded-sensitivity version of this query, which reduces to solving a max-flow problem. The sensitivity bound is optimized to balance the noise we must add to privatize the answer against the error of the approximation of the bounded-sensitivity query to the true number of unique elements.

We give a quantum algorithm for computing an epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium of a zero-sum game in a m times n payoff matrix with bounded entries. Given a standard quantum oracle for accessing the payoff matrix our algorithm runs in time O(m + ncdot epsilon^{-2.5} + epsilon^{-3}) and outputs a classical representation of the epsilon-approximate Nash equilibrium. This improves upon the best prior quantum runtime of O(m + n cdot epsilon^{-3}) obtained by [vAG19] and the classic O((m + n) cdot epsilon^{-2}) runtime due to [GK95] whenever epsilon = Omega((m +n)^{-1}). We obtain this result by designing new quantum data structures for efficiently sampling from a slowly-changing Gibbs distribution.

We study the accuracy of differentially private mechanisms in the continual release model. A continual release mechanism receives a sensitive dataset as a stream of T inputs and produces, after receiving each input, an accurate output on the obtained inputs. In contrast, a batch algorithm receives the data as one batch and produces a single output. We provide the first strong lower bounds on the error of continual release mechanisms. In particular, for two fundamental problems that are widely studied and used in the batch model, we show that the worst case error of every continual release algorithm is tilde Omega(T^{1/3}) times larger than that of the best batch algorithm. Previous work shows only a polylogarithimic (in T) gap between the worst case error achievable in these two models; further, for many problems, including the summation of binary attributes, the polylogarithmic gap is tight (Dwork et al., 2010; Chan et al., 2010). Our results show that problems closely related to summation -- specifically, those that require selecting the largest of a set of sums -- are fundamentally harder in the continual release model than in the batch model. Our lower bounds assume only that privacy holds for streams fixed in advance (the "nonadaptive" setting). However, we provide matching upper bounds that hold in a model where privacy is required even for adaptively selected streams. This model may be of independent interest.

We consider reinforcement learning in an environment modeled by an episodic, finite, stage-dependent Markov decision process of horizon H with S states, and A actions. The performance of an agent is measured by the regret after interacting with the environment for T episodes. We propose an optimistic posterior sampling algorithm for reinforcement learning (OPSRL), a simple variant of posterior sampling that only needs a number of posterior samples logarithmic in H, S, A, and T per state-action pair. For OPSRL we guarantee a high-probability regret bound of order at most mathcal{O}(H^3SAT) ignoring polylog(HSAT) terms. The key novel technical ingredient is a new sharp anti-concentration inequality for linear forms which may be of independent interest. Specifically, we extend the normal approximation-based lower bound for Beta distributions by Alfers and Dinges [1984] to Dirichlet distributions. Our bound matches the lower bound of order Ω(H^3SAT), thereby answering the open problems raised by Agrawal and Jia [2017b] for the episodic setting.

We propose a new bound for generalization of neural networks using Koopman operators. Whereas most of existing works focus on low-rank weight matrices, we focus on full-rank weight matrices. Our bound is tighter than existing norm-based bounds when the condition numbers of weight matrices are small. Especially, it is completely independent of the width of the network if the weight matrices are orthogonal. Our bound does not contradict to the existing bounds but is a complement to the existing bounds. As supported by several existing empirical results, low-rankness is not the only reason for generalization. Furthermore, our bound can be combined with the existing bounds to obtain a tighter bound. Our result sheds new light on understanding generalization of neural networks with full-rank weight matrices, and it provides a connection between operator-theoretic analysis and generalization of neural networks.

Benchmarks are widely used to evaluate task completion by Large Language Models (LLMs), but this approach has accumulated construction-validity problems, and a passing score may not show whether the requested task was delivered. We study both problems. In a controlled code-as-spec setup, two production Copilot CLI agents (claude-opus-4.7, gpt-5.5) re-implement a React Fluent-UI data table in Angular as a reusable library under a hidden 222-test Playwright oracle across 18 runs and three oracle-availability conditions. Alongside the score, we run a mechanical library audit and check each verdict with a no-op ablation. Without the oracle, the library is present but unfinished, revealed by scores. With the oracle in the loop, the score reaches near-perfect, but from a demo holding the tested behavior directly, the library left dead or absent. We call this building to the test; the broader disposition behind both we call validation self-awareness. The agent does not, on its own, validate what it ships as a user would. Prevalence remains an open question across other agents, signals, and model families. Beyond benchmark scores, dispositions like validation self-awareness merit research attention.

We analyze the general version of the classic guessing game Mastermind with n positions and k colors. Since the case k le n^{1-varepsilon}, varepsilon>0 a constant, is well understood, we concentrate on larger numbers of colors. For the most prominent case k = n, our results imply that Codebreaker can find the secret code with O(n log log n) guesses. This bound is valid also when only black answer-pegs are used. It improves the O(n log n) bound first proven by Chvátal (Combinatorica 3 (1983), 325--329). We also show that if both black and white answer-pegs are used, then the O(n loglog n) bound holds for up to n^2 loglog n colors. These bounds are almost tight as the known lower bound of Ω(n) shows. Unlike for k le n^{1-varepsilon}, simply guessing at random until the secret code is determined is not sufficient. In fact, we show that an optimal non-adaptive strategy (deterministic or randomized) needs Θ(n log n) guesses.

The notion of shortcut partition, introduced recently by Chang, Conroy, Le, Milenkovi\'c, Solomon, and Than [CCLMST23], is a new type of graph partition into low-diameter clusters. Roughly speaking, the shortcut partition guarantees that for every two vertices u and v in the graph, there exists a path between u and v that intersects only a few clusters. They proved that any planar graph admits a shortcut partition and gave several applications, including a construction of tree cover for arbitrary planar graphs with stretch 1+varepsilon and O(1) many trees for any fixed varepsilon in (0,1). However, the construction heavily exploits planarity in multiple steps, and is thus inherently limited to planar graphs. In this work, we breach the "planarity barrier" to construct a shortcut partition for K_r-minor-free graphs for any r. To this end, we take a completely different approach -- our key contribution is a novel deterministic variant of the cop decomposition in minor-free graphs [And86, AGG14]. Our shortcut partition for K_r-minor-free graphs yields several direct applications. Most notably, we construct the first optimal distance oracle for K_r-minor-free graphs, with 1+varepsilon stretch, linear space, and constant query time for any fixed varepsilon in (0,1). The previous best distance oracle [AG06] uses O(nlog n) space and O(log n) query time, and its construction relies on Robertson-Seymour structural theorem and other sophisticated tools. We also obtain the first tree cover of O(1) size for minor-free graphs with stretch 1+varepsilon, while the previous best (1+varepsilon)-tree cover has size O(log^2 n) [BFN19].

Training large language models (LLMs) with synthetic reasoning data has become a popular approach to enhancing their reasoning capabilities, while a key factor influencing the effectiveness of this paradigm is the quality of the generated multi-step reasoning data. To generate high-quality reasoning data, many recent methods generate synthetic reasoning paths and filter them based on final answer correctness, often overlooking flaws in intermediate reasoning steps. To enhance the verification of intermediate reasoning steps, prior work primarily resorts to code execution or symbolic reasoning engines. However, code-based validation is restricted to code or mathematical tasks, and reasoning engines require a well-structured and complete context. As a result, existing methods fail to function effectively in natural language reasoning tasks that involve ambiguous or incomplete contexts. In these tasks, synthetic data still lack reliable checks for verifying each reasoning step. To address this challenge, we introduce ORACLE, a structured data generation framework inspired by syllogistic reasoning. ORACLE integrates the generative strengths of LLMs with symbolic supervision: the LLM produces step-wise reasoning contexts, while a symbolic reasoning engine verifies the validity of each intermediate step. By employing a unified prompting template to elicit modular reasoning chains, ORACLE enables fine-grained, step-level validation, facilitating the construction of high-quality multi-step reasoning data. Across six logical, factual, and commonsense reasoning benchmarks, our ORACLE consistently outperforms strong baselines on multiple models.

Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of such activation oracles is so far understudied. Here, we investigate 6 different methods for estimating the confidence of activation oracles and evaluate how well-calibrated their confidence scores are. Our experiments on 6,000 samples per oracle (varying verbalizer and context prompts) reveal that bootstrap mode frequency is the best-calibrated method among those tested (ECE 5.7% vs. 25.5% for the answer-word log-probability on Qwen3-8B; 10.3% vs. 13.1% on Qwen3.6-27B), and that the log-prob baseline can serve as a fast triage signal at a fraction of the cost. Code and the patched trainer are available at https://github.com/federicotorrielli/probabilistic_activation_oracles.

Operations Research practitioners debug infeasible models through an iterative process: inspecting Irreducible Infeasible Subsystems ( IIS), identifying constraint conflicts, and repairing formulations until feasibility is restored. Existing LLM benchmarks mostly treat OR as one-shot translation from problem descriptions to solver code, omitting this diagnostic loop. We formalize infeasible-model repair as a solver-in-the-loop Markov Decision Process in which each action triggers solver re-execution and IIS recomputation, yielding deterministic, verifiable feedback. We introduce ORLoopBench, a benchmark suite with two components: OR-Debug-Bench releases 5,362 LP/MILP repair instances, while OR-Bias-Bench evaluates closed-form operational decision rationality across inventory settings. Solver-verified RLVR training enables an 8B model to surpass frontier APIs on LP repair (95.3% vs 92.4% RR @5), improves diagnostic behavior, and transfers to MILP repair. The same evaluation exposes semantic drift in whole-model code regeneration: feasible regenerated MILPs can solve the wrong problem. Process-level evaluation with solver oracles enables targeted training for reliable OR self-correction.

Given a database of bit strings A_1,ldots,A_min {0,1}^n, a fundamental data structure task is to estimate the distances between a given query Bin {0,1}^n with all the strings in the database. In addition, one might further want to ensure the integrity of the database by releasing these distance statistics in a secure manner. In this work, we propose differentially private (DP) data structures for this type of tasks, with a focus on Hamming and edit distance. On top of the strong privacy guarantees, our data structures are also time- and space-efficient. In particular, our data structure is epsilon-DP against any sequence of queries of arbitrary length, and for any query B such that the maximum distance to any string in the database is at most k, we output m distance estimates. Moreover, - For Hamming distance, our data structure answers any query in widetilde O(mk+n) time and each estimate deviates from the true distance by at most widetilde O(k/e^{epsilon/log k}); - For edit distance, our data structure answers any query in widetilde O(mk^2+n) time and each estimate deviates from the true distance by at most widetilde O(k/e^{epsilon/(log k log n)}). For moderate k, both data structures support sublinear query operations. We obtain these results via a novel adaptation of the randomized response technique as a bit flipping procedure, applied to the sketched strings.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

Preparing the ground state of a given Hamiltonian and estimating its ground energy are important but computationally hard tasks. However, given some additional information, these problems can be solved efficiently on a quantum computer. We assume that an initial state with non-trivial overlap with the ground state can be efficiently prepared, and the spectral gap between the ground energy and the first excited energy is bounded from below. With these assumptions we design an algorithm that prepares the ground state when an upper bound of the ground energy is known, whose runtime has a logarithmic dependence on the inverse error. When such an upper bound is not known, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to estimate the ground energy, where the dependence of the number of queries to the initial state on the desired precision is exponentially improved compared to the current state-of-the-art algorithm proposed in [Ge et al. 2019]. These two algorithms can then be combined to prepare a ground state without knowing an upper bound of the ground energy. We also prove that our algorithms reach the complexity lower bounds by applying it to the unstructured search problem and the quantum approximate counting problem.

Activation Oracles (AOs) are promising methods for interpreting residual stream activations. However, current AOs face important issues, such as hallucinations and vagueness. Additionally, text-inversion confounds make them hard to evaluate. To this end, we improve the Activation Oracle (AO) training regime in four ways: training on on-policy rollouts, improving the conversational dataset, feeding more layers and an improvement to the injection formula. The capability improvements are marginal, but quality of life improvements are quite substantial. In addition, we open source the first comprehensive evaluation suite for AO quality, which we call AObench. Overall, we hope that our work sets a foundation that helps improve AOs and other models in the paradigm of scalable, end-to-end interpretability.

Benchmarks for LLM-generated GPU kernels (KernelBench, TritonBench, GEAK) score correctness through fixed-shape, small-sample allclose-style checks. The number of inputs varies between benchmarks. The shape, dtype, and tolerance are fixed for each kernel. We test that oracle empirically. We construct a controlled corpus of 24 Triton and CPU stand-in kernels (15 correct controls and 9 LLM-style buggy variants seeded with documented transcription errors) and re-evaluate it under op-schema-aware seeded fuzzing with a high-precision (fp64) CPU reference and per-(op, dtype) absolute tolerances. The seeded oracle flags 9 of 9 buggy kernels and passes 15 of 15 correct controls, at zero precision cost on controls. We extend the corpus to 26 ops (adding a flash-attention pair) and re-run the same protocol on five GPU classes (RTX 3060, A10, L40S, A100 SXM4, H100 NVL). The verdicts are identical across all five GPUs: 10 of 10 illusions caught and 16 of 16 controls clean. The corpus result is about LLM-style transcription bugs that the allclose-on-one-shape oracle certifies as correct, not about the bug rate of any specific deployed LLM. Every flagged failure replays byte-for-byte from a stored seed.

We study the notion of a generalization bound being uniformly tight, meaning that the difference between the bound and the population loss is small for all learning algorithms and all population distributions. Numerous generalization bounds have been proposed in the literature as potential explanations for the ability of neural networks to generalize in the overparameterized setting. However, in their paper ``Fantastic Generalization Measures and Where to Find Them,'' Jiang et al. (2020) examine more than a dozen generalization bounds, and show empirically that none of them are uniformly tight. This raises the question of whether uniformly-tight generalization bounds are at all possible in the overparameterized setting. We consider two types of generalization bounds: (1) bounds that may depend on the training set and the learned hypothesis (e.g., margin bounds). We prove mathematically that no such bound can be uniformly tight in the overparameterized setting; (2) bounds that may in addition also depend on the learning algorithm (e.g., stability bounds). For these bounds, we show a trade-off between the algorithm's performance and the bound's tightness. Namely, if the algorithm achieves good accuracy on certain distributions, then no generalization bound can be uniformly tight for it in the overparameterized setting. We explain how these formal results can, in our view, inform research on generalization bounds for neural networks, while stressing that other interpretations of these results are also possible.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

The use of quantum computing for machine learning is among the most exciting prospective applications of quantum technologies. However, machine learning tasks where data is provided can be considerably different than commonly studied computational tasks. In this work, we show that some problems that are classically hard to compute can be easily predicted by classical machines learning from data. Using rigorous prediction error bounds as a foundation, we develop a methodology for assessing potential quantum advantage in learning tasks. The bounds are tight asymptotically and empirically predictive for a wide range of learning models. These constructions explain numerical results showing that with the help of data, classical machine learning models can be competitive with quantum models even if they are tailored to quantum problems. We then propose a projected quantum model that provides a simple and rigorous quantum speed-up for a learning problem in the fault-tolerant regime. For near-term implementations, we demonstrate a significant prediction advantage over some classical models on engineered data sets designed to demonstrate a maximal quantum advantage in one of the largest numerical tests for gate-based quantum machine learning to date, up to 30 qubits.

Recently, the study of linear misspecified bandits has generated intriguing implications of the hardness of learning in bandits and reinforcement learning (RL). In particular, Du et al. (2020) show that even if a learner is given linear features in R^d that approximate the rewards in a bandit or RL with a uniform error of varepsilon, searching for an O(varepsilon)-optimal action requires pulling at least Omega(exp(d)) queries. Furthermore, Lattimore et al. (2020) show that a degraded O(varepsilond)-optimal solution can be learned within poly(d/varepsilon) queries. Yet it is unknown whether a structural assumption on the ground-truth parameter, such as sparsity, could break the varepsilond barrier. In this paper, we address this question by showing that algorithms can obtain O(varepsilon)-optimal actions by querying O(varepsilon^{-s}d^s) actions, where s is the sparsity parameter, removing the exp(d)-dependence. We then establish information-theoretical lower bounds, i.e., Omega(exp(s)), to show that our upper bound on sample complexity is nearly tight if one demands an error O(s^{delta}varepsilon) for 0<delta<1. For deltageq 1, we further show that poly(s/varepsilon) queries are possible when the linear features are "good" and even in general settings. These results provide a nearly complete picture of how sparsity can help in misspecified bandit learning and provide a deeper understanding of when linear features are "useful" for bandit and reinforcement learning with misspecification.

Generalization bounds which assess the difference between the true risk and the empirical risk, have been studied extensively. However, to obtain bounds, current techniques use strict assumptions such as a uniformly bounded or a Lipschitz loss function. To avoid these assumptions, in this paper, we follow an alternative approach: we relax uniform bounds assumptions by using on-average bounded loss and on-average bounded gradient norm assumptions. Following this relaxation, we propose a new generalization bound that exploits the contractivity of the log-Sobolev inequalities. These inequalities add an additional loss-gradient norm term to the generalization bound, which is intuitively a surrogate of the model complexity. We apply the proposed bound on Bayesian deep nets and empirically analyze the effect of this new loss-gradient norm term on different neural architectures.

Scientific discovery via symbolic regression is often viewed as statistically and computationally intractable because the hypothesis space of expressions grows combinatorially with depth. This paper revisits the statistical side through the lens of PAC learning, focusing on compositional function trees built from a finite vocabulary of smooth operators (e.g., {+,times,sin,exp} and affine maps). We prove that the relevant generalization quantity, Rademacher complexity, hence the excess risk, does not necessarily blow up exponentially with the number of distinct symbolic structures, but is controlled by (i) the depth d and (ii) the Lipschitz constants of the base operators along the composed computation graph. Concretely, under mild Lipschitz conditions on operators and bounded affine leaves, a finite-union bound over a vocabulary of size K=|H_{base}| together with Maurer-type vector contraction yields R_n(H_{comp}^{d}) leq (Kb2L)^{d-1}R_n(H_{comp}^{1}) with arity bound b; corresponding high-probability risk bounds scale as O(L^{d}/n) when K,b=O(1) and R_n(H_{comp}^{1})=O(n^{-1/2}). We complement the theory with a modular codebase that trains differentiable operator trees (not MLPs) on synthetic "physics-like" targets of controlled depth and shows that the empirical generalization gap correlates positively with the predicted complexity term (L^{d})/n.

Text-to-optimization requires two separable capabilities: modeling -- choosing the right optimization structure -- and binding -- grounding every coefficient, index, and parameter in the concrete problem data. We study this via Text2Opt-Bench, a scalable benchmark of solver-verified optimization problems spanning 12 categories, from textbook linear programs to stochastic and multi-objective formulations with up to thousands of variables. Across 10+ models, we find that accuracy collapses as instance data grows, even when the formulation itself is simple. We call this the effective binding limit. We address this via a simple inference-time approach, BIND, which externalizes numeric data to structured files so the model binds data programmatically rather than transcribing from the prompt. BIND improves GPT-5-Nano from 59.1% to 82.4% accuracy, matching pass@5 (82.0%) at lower token cost than pass@1, and GPT-5 from 86.2% to 95.8%. Furthermore, we validate our hypothesis by finetuning a model exclusively on binding and show that it outperforms end-to-end SFT and RL across three structurally distinct optimization categories, with a 1.5B binding specialist alone matching a 7B end-to-end baseline.

As large language models (LLMs) transition from research prototypes to production systems, practitioners often need reliable methods to verify that model outputs satisfy required constraints. While sampling-based estimates provide an intuition of model behavior, they offer no sound guarantees. We present BEAVER, the first practical framework for computing deterministic, sound probability bounds on LLM constraint satisfaction. Given any prefix-closed semantic constraint, BEAVER systematically explores the generation space using novel token trie and frontier data structures, maintaining provably sound bounds at every iteration. We formalize the verification problem, prove soundness of our approach, and evaluate BEAVER on correctness verification, privacy verification and secure code generation tasks across multiple state of the art LLMs. BEAVER achieves 6 to 8 times tighter probability bounds and identifies 3 to 4 times more high risk instances compared to baseline methods under identical computational budgets, enabling precise characterization and risk assessment that loose bounds or empirical evaluation cannot provide.

Inequality proving, crucial across diverse scientific and mathematical fields, tests advanced reasoning skills such as discovering tight bounds and strategic theorem application. This makes it a distinct, demanding frontier for large language models (LLMs), offering insights beyond general mathematical problem-solving. Progress in this area is hampered by existing datasets that are often scarce, synthetic, or rigidly formal. We address this by proposing an informal yet verifiable task formulation, recasting inequality proving into two automatically checkable subtasks: bound estimation and relation prediction. Building on this, we release IneqMath, an expert-curated dataset of Olympiad-level inequalities, including a test set and training corpus enriched with step-wise solutions and theorem annotations. We also develop a novel LLM-as-judge evaluation framework, combining a final-answer judge with four step-wise judges designed to detect common reasoning flaws. A systematic evaluation of 29 leading LLMs on IneqMath reveals a surprising reality: even top models like o1 achieve less than 10% overall accuracy under step-wise scrutiny; this is a drop of up to 65.5% from their accuracy considering only final answer equivalence. This discrepancy exposes fragile deductive chains and a critical gap for current LLMs between merely finding an answer and constructing a rigorous proof. Scaling model size and increasing test-time computation yield limited gains in overall proof correctness. Instead, our findings highlight promising research directions such as theorem-guided reasoning and self-refinement. Code and data are available at https://ineqmath.github.io/.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Are AI agents tools, co-authors, or researchers? We present a quantified case study (N=1): a physicist supervising an AI coding agent (Claude Code, Sonnet and Opus models) over 12 work days and 57 sessions to build CLAX-PT, a differentiable one-loop perturbation theory module in JAX. We documented and classified 15 supervision events by intervention level. The agent resolved ten autonomously by iterating against oracle tests. Two more by the physicist's domain knowledge. The three it could not -- all evaded oracle detection -- share a common property: the agent treated symptom reduction as root-cause resolution. It spent 33 of the 57 sessions adjusting coefficients within a code architecture that could not represent the target physics, and could not re-evaluate its CLASS-PT branch choice even when prompted to reconsider; only an injected physics concept (anisotropic BAO damping) triggered the redesign. Separately, the agent committed a calibrated correction that passed all oracle tests but corresponded to no quantity in the theory, predicting wrong values at any other cosmology. The fudge factor was caught and replaced within the same session. Three supervision practices proved critical for catching what oracle tests missed: testing at diverse parameter points beyond the fiducial calibration; shared changelogs that surfaced stalled exploration across sessions; and an explicit rule against unphysical numerical patches. In this case, supervision design, not model capability, determined whether the agent's output was trustworthy. Closing the gap would require agents that propose architectural alternatives rather than optimize within a given structure, and distinguish predictive adequacy from explanatory correctness -- capabilities not exhibited here, not obviously addressed by scaling alone. [Abridged.]

Simple regret is a natural and parameter-free performance criterion for pure exploration in multi-armed bandits yet is less popular than the probability of missing the best arm or an epsilon-good arm, perhaps due to lack of easy ways to characterize it. In this paper, we make significant progress on minimizing simple regret in both data-rich (Tge n) and data-poor regime (T le n) where n is the number of arms, and T is the number of samples. At its heart is our improved instance-dependent analysis of the well-known Sequential Halving (SH) algorithm, where we bound the probability of returning an arm whose mean reward is not within epsilon from the best (i.e., not epsilon-good) for any choice of epsilon>0, although epsilon is not an input to SH. Our bound not only leads to an optimal worst-case simple regret bound of n/T up to logarithmic factors but also essentially matches the instance-dependent lower bound for returning an epsilon-good arm reported by Katz-Samuels and Jamieson (2020). For the more challenging data-poor regime, we propose Bracketing SH (BSH) that enjoys the same improvement even without sampling each arm at least once. Our empirical study shows that BSH outperforms existing methods on real-world tasks.

Many real-world questions over business, legal, and scientific corpora are natural-language versions of database-style queries over records latent in text. Existing retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems are optimized primarily for semantic relevance, but retrieving plausible passages does not guarantee correct query execution. We introduce QO-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark for query-operator question answering over typed event tuples. The benchmark covers 22,984 news articles and 614 corporate events across 18 query templates, evaluated on 785 questions. Each gold answer is deterministically computed from typed event tuples and scored by recall, with answers matched to the gold tuples by exact match rather than an LLM judge. This design enables operator-level diagnosis such as joins and intersection. We evaluate RAG, ReAct RAG, GraphRAG, and information-extraction-to-SQL under matched conditions, with a long-context oracle ceiling to isolate retrieval failure. A two-axis framework -- index-time preservation versus query-time execution -- predicts where each paradigm fails, and the results bear it out: systems retrieve relevant text but discard the typed values operators need, and the deployable paradigm ranking inverts across operators, with similarity retrieval leading on filter/project and extraction-to-SQL on intersection and counting. Even given the gold evidence, a long-context oracle stays far from saturated, so operator execution -- not retrieval alone -- is a core bottleneck that a stronger answer model does not remove. QO-Bench reframes the goal from passage relevance to query-operator-preserving retrieval.

The intrinsic probabilistic nature of quantum systems makes error correction or mitigation indispensable for quantum computation. While current error-correcting strategies focus on correcting errors in quantum states or quantum gates, these fine-grained error-correction methods can incur significant overhead for quantum algorithms of increasing complexity. We present a first step in achieving error correction at the level of quantum algorithms by combining a unified perspective on modern quantum algorithms via quantum signal processing (QSP). An error model of under- or over-rotation of the signal processing operator parameterized by epsilon < 1 is introduced. It is shown that while Pauli Z-errors are not recoverable without additional resources, Pauli X and Y errors can be arbitrarily suppressed by coherently appending a noisy `recovery QSP.' Furthermore, it is found that a recovery QSP of length O(2^k c^{k^2} d) is sufficient to correct any length-d QSP with c unique phases to k^{th}-order in error epsilon. Allowing an additional assumption, a lower bound of Omega(cd) is shown, which is tight for k = 1, on the length of the recovery sequence. Our algorithmic-level error correction method is applied to Grover's fixed-point search algorithm as a demonstration.

This tutorial gives a concise overview of existing PAC-Bayesian theory focusing on three generalization bounds. The first is an Occam bound which handles rules with finite precision parameters and which states that generalization loss is near training loss when the number of bits needed to write the rule is small compared to the sample size. The second is a PAC-Bayesian bound providing a generalization guarantee for posterior distributions rather than for individual rules. The PAC-Bayesian bound naturally handles infinite precision rule parameters, L_2 regularization, {\em provides a bound for dropout training}, and defines a natural notion of a single distinguished PAC-Bayesian posterior distribution. The third bound is a training-variance bound --- a kind of bias-variance analysis but with bias replaced by expected training loss. The training-variance bound dominates the other bounds but is more difficult to interpret. It seems to suggest variance reduction methods such as bagging and may ultimately provide a more meaningful analysis of dropouts.

Agentic theorem provers combine a reasoning model, retrieval, search, and a proof assistant verifier, yet it remains unclear which components actually improve finite-budget proof success and why they help on real mathematical workloads. We study this question through statistical provability: the probability of reaching a verified proof within a budget on a specified stream of theorem instances. We model formal proof search as a finite-horizon reachability MDP with deterministic verifier dynamics, and show that under a faithful state abstraction the optimal success probability coincides with ordinary syntactic provability. We then analyze a simple but practically important pipeline: depth-wise offline action-value regression followed by greedy test-time proving. Our main theorem bounds the provability gap between the learned prover and the optimal prover by an occupancy-weighted sum of uniform action-value errors; in the common uniform-error reading, the leading complexity multiplier is the learned prover's average truncated proof length. The error decomposes into approximation error, geometric coverage of the training distribution, and Monte Carlo label noise, and improves to a fast rate under an action-gap margin condition. The result gives a component-sensitive account of why verifier feedback, retrieval, representation geometry, and proof-shortening mechanisms help on biased theorem workloads, without contradicting classical worst-case hardness.

A recent line of works showed regret bounds in reinforcement learning (RL) can be (nearly) independent of planning horizon, a.k.a.~the horizon-free bounds. However, these regret bounds only apply to settings where a polynomial dependency on the size of transition model is allowed, such as tabular Markov Decision Process (MDP) and linear mixture MDP. We give the first horizon-free bound for the popular linear MDP setting where the size of the transition model can be exponentially large or even uncountable. In contrast to prior works which explicitly estimate the transition model and compute the inhomogeneous value functions at different time steps, we directly estimate the value functions and confidence sets. We obtain the horizon-free bound by: (1) maintaining multiple weighted least square estimators for the value functions; and (2) a structural lemma which shows the maximal total variation of the inhomogeneous value functions is bounded by a polynomial factor of the feature dimension.

By incorporating regret minimization, double oracle methods have demonstrated rapid convergence to Nash Equilibrium (NE) in normal-form games and extensive-form games, through algorithms such as online double oracle (ODO) and extensive-form double oracle (XDO), respectively. In this study, we further examine the theoretical convergence rate and sample complexity of such regret minimization-based double oracle methods, utilizing a unified framework called Regret-Minimizing Double Oracle. Based on this framework, we extend ODO to extensive-form games and determine its sample complexity. Moreover, we demonstrate that the sample complexity of XDO can be exponential in the number of information sets |S|, owing to the exponentially decaying stopping threshold of restricted games. To solve this problem, we propose the Periodic Double Oracle (PDO) method, which has the lowest sample complexity among all existing double oracle methods, being only polynomial in |S|. Empirical evaluations on multiple poker and board games show that PDO achieves significantly faster convergence than previous double oracle algorithms and reaches a competitive level with state-of-the-art regret minimization methods.

In this work, we initiate the study of learning quantum processes from quantum statistical queries. We focus on two fundamental learning tasks in this new access model: shadow tomography of quantum processes and process tomography with respect to diamond distance. For the former, we present an efficient average-case algorithm along with a nearly matching lower bound with respect to the number of observables to be predicted. For the latter, we present average-case query complexity lower bounds for learning classes of unitaries. We obtain an exponential lower bound for learning unitary 2-designs and a doubly exponential lower bound for Haar-random unitaries. Finally, we demonstrate the practical relevance of our access model by applying our learning algorithm to attack an authentication protocol using Classical-Readout Quantum Physically Unclonable Functions, partially addressing an important open question in quantum hardware security.

Generalizing to out-of-distribution (OOD) data or unseen domain, termed OOD generalization, still lacks appropriate theoretical guarantees. Canonical OOD bounds focus on different distance measurements between source and target domains but fail to consider the optimization property of the learned model. As empirically shown in recent work, the sharpness of learned minima influences OOD generalization. To bridge this gap between optimization and OOD generalization, we study the effect of sharpness on how a model tolerates data change in domain shift which is usually captured by "robustness" in generalization. In this paper, we give a rigorous connection between sharpness and robustness, which gives better OOD guarantees for robust algorithms. It also provides a theoretical backing for "flat minima leads to better OOD generalization". Overall, we propose a sharpness-based OOD generalization bound by taking robustness into consideration, resulting in a tighter bound than non-robust guarantees. Our findings are supported by the experiments on a ridge regression model, as well as the experiments on deep learning classification tasks.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

We introduce the finite-horizon first-order rank profile of a language L subseteq Σ^*: the least quantifier rank needed by an FO[<] sentence to classify membership in L correctly on all words of length at most n. The invariant measures quantifier depth only; formula size is deliberately not bounded. First, we prove a rank calculus that is independent of regularity. Every language satisfies ρ_L(n) le lceil log_2 n rceil + 4, via balanced first-order distance formulas and exact-word definitions. Moreover, sup_n ρ_L(n) < infty holds exactly when L is globally FO[<]-definable, and the supremum equals the minimum quantifier rank of such a definition. Second, for regular languages we prove a sharp aperiodicity gap: if the syntactic monoid of L is aperiodic, then ρ_L(n) = O(1); otherwise ρ_L(n) = log_2 n + O_L(1). The lower bound extracts a nontrivial cyclic component from the syntactic monoid and combines it with an Ehrenfeucht-Fraisse power lemma for long repetitions of a fixed word. Thus, for full FO[<] quantifier rank, regular languages admit no intermediate finite-horizon growth between bounded and logarithmic rank.

Modern language models can contain billions of parameters, raising the question of whether they can generalize beyond the training data or simply regurgitate their training corpora. We provide the first non-vacuous generalization bounds for pretrained large language models (LLMs), indicating that language models are capable of discovering regularities that generalize to unseen data. In particular, we derive a compression bound that is valid for the unbounded log-likelihood loss using prediction smoothing, and we extend the bound to handle subsampling, accelerating bound computation on massive datasets. To achieve the extreme level of compression required for non-vacuous generalization bounds, we devise SubLoRA, a low-dimensional non-linear parameterization. Using this approach, we find that larger models have better generalization bounds and are more compressible than smaller models.

Text-to-SQL task maps natural language utterances to structured queries that can be issued to a database. State-of-the-art (SOTA) systems rely on finetuning large, pre-trained language models in conjunction with constrained decoding applying a SQL parser. On the well established Spider dataset, we begin with Oracle studies: specifically, choosing an Oracle hypothesis from a SOTA model's 10-best list, yields a 7.7% absolute improvement in both exact match (EM) and execution (EX) accuracy, showing significant potential improvements with reranking. Identifying coherence and correctness as reranking approaches, we design a model generating a query plan and propose a heuristic schema linking algorithm. Combining both approaches, with T5-Large, we obtain a consistent 1% improvement in EM accuracy, and a ~2.5% improvement in EX, establishing a new SOTA for this task. Our comprehensive error studies on DEV data show the underlying difficulty in making progress on this task.

We obtain almost sure bounds for the weighted sum sum_{n leq t} f(n){n}, where f(n) is a Steinhaus random multiplicative function. Specifically, we obtain the bounds predicted by exponentiating the law of the iterated logarithm, giving sharp upper and lower bounds.

In this paper, we introduce Randomized Q-learning (RandQL), a novel randomized model-free algorithm for regret minimization in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). To the best of our knowledge, RandQL is the first tractable model-free posterior sampling-based algorithm. We analyze the performance of RandQL in both tabular and non-tabular metric space settings. In tabular MDPs, RandQL achieves a regret bound of order O(H^{5SAT}), where H is the planning horizon, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, and T is the number of episodes. For a metric state-action space, RandQL enjoys a regret bound of order O(H^{5/2} T^{(d_z+1)/(d_z+2)}), where d_z denotes the zooming dimension. Notably, RandQL achieves optimistic exploration without using bonuses, relying instead on a novel idea of learning rate randomization. Our empirical study shows that RandQL outperforms existing approaches on baseline exploration environments.

Text-to-SQL systems allow non-SQL experts to interact with relational databases using natural language. However, their tendency to generate executable SQL for ambiguous, out-of-scope, or unanswerable queries introduces a hidden risk, as outputs may be misinterpreted as correct. This risk is especially serious in biomedical contexts, where precision is critical. We therefore present Query Carefully, a pipeline that integrates LLM-based SQL generation with explicit detection and handling of unanswerable inputs. Building on the OncoMX component of ScienceBenchmark, we construct OncoMX-NAQ (No-Answer Questions), a set of 80 no-answer questions spanning 8 categories (non-SQL, out-of-schema/domain, and multiple ambiguity types). Our approach employs llama3.3:70b with schema-aware prompts, explicit No-Answer Rules (NAR), and few-shot examples drawn from both answerable and unanswerable questions. We evaluate SQL exact match, result accuracy, and unanswerable-detection accuracy. On the OncoMX dev split, few-shot prompting with answerable examples increases result accuracy, and adding unanswerable examples does not degrade performance. On OncoMX-NAQ, balanced prompting achieves the highest unanswerable-detection accuracy (0.8), with near-perfect results for structurally defined categories (non-SQL, missing columns, out-of-domain) but persistent challenges for missing-value queries (0.5) and column ambiguity (0.3). A lightweight user interface surfaces interim SQL, execution results, and abstentions, supporting transparent and reliable text-to-SQL in biomedical applications.

Machine learning approaches relying on such criteria as adversarial robustness or multi-agent settings have raised the need for solving game-theoretic equilibrium problems. Of particular relevance to these applications are methods targeting finite-sum structure, which generically arises in empirical variants of learning problems in these contexts. Further, methods with computable approximation errors are highly desirable, as they provide verifiable exit criteria. Motivated by these applications, we study finite-sum monotone inclusion problems, which model broad classes of equilibrium problems. Our main contributions are variants of the classical Halpern iteration that employ variance reduction to obtain improved complexity guarantees in which n component operators in the finite sum are ``on average'' either cocoercive or Lipschitz continuous and monotone, with parameter L. The resulting oracle complexity of our methods, which provide guarantees for the last iterate and for a (computable) operator norm residual, is mathcal{O}( n + nLvarepsilon^{-1}), which improves upon existing methods by a factor up to n. This constitutes the first variance reduction-type result for general finite-sum monotone inclusions and for more specific problems such as convex-concave optimization when operator norm residual is the optimality measure. We further argue that, up to poly-logarithmic factors, this complexity is unimprovable in the monotone Lipschitz setting; i.e., the provided result is near-optimal.

Visual language model (VLM) agents show great promise in automating end-to-end (E2E) web testing against requirements in natural language. However, the probabilistic nature of language models can have inherent hallucinations. Therefore, given a detected inconsistency between the requirement and the web application, it is hard to distinguish whether it stems from the hallucination or a real application bug. Addressing this issue presents two core technical challenges: the implicit oracle inference challenge, where the agent must act as its own oracle to implicitly decide if the application's behavior is correct without guidance, and the probabilistic inference challenge, where an LLM's inconsistent reasoning undermines its trustworthiness as an oracle. Existing LLM-based approaches fail to capture such implicit oracles, either by treating any page navigation that doesn't crash as a success, or by checking each state in isolation, thus missing bugs dependent on context from prior steps. We introduce WebTestPilot, an LLM-based agent designed to address these challenges. WebTestPilot uses (1) a symbolization layer which detects and symbolizes critical GUI elements on the web application into symbols (i.e., variables) and (2) translates natural language specification into a sequence of steps, each of which is equipped with inferred pre- and post-conditions over the symbols as an oracle. This oracle captures data, temporal, and causal dependencies, enabling the validation of implicit requirements. To advance research in this area, we build a benchmark of bug-injected web apps for evaluating NL-to-E2E testing. The results show that WebTestPilot achieves a task completion rate of 99%, with 96% precision and 96% recall in bug detection, outperforming the best baseline (+70 precision, +27 recall). The agent generalizes across diverse natural language inputs and model scales.

Machine learning models trained with differentially-private (DP) algorithms such as DP-SGD enjoy resilience against a wide range of privacy attacks. Although it is possible to derive bounds for some attacks based solely on an (varepsilon,delta)-DP guarantee, meaningful bounds require a small enough privacy budget (i.e., injecting a large amount of noise), which results in a large loss in utility. This paper presents a new approach to evaluate the privacy of machine learning models against specific record-level threats, such as membership and attribute inference, without the indirection through DP. We focus on the popular DP-SGD algorithm, and derive simple closed-form bounds. Our proofs model DP-SGD as an information theoretic channel whose inputs are the secrets that an attacker wants to infer (e.g., membership of a data record) and whose outputs are the intermediate model parameters produced by iterative optimization. We obtain bounds for membership inference that match state-of-the-art techniques, whilst being orders of magnitude faster to compute. Additionally, we present a novel data-dependent bound against attribute inference. Our results provide a direct, interpretable, and practical way to evaluate the privacy of trained models against specific inference threats without sacrificing utility.

Motivated by the need to efficiently identify multiple candidates in high trial-and-error cost tasks such as drug discovery, we propose a near-optimal algorithm to identify all ε-best arms (i.e., those at most ε worse than the optimum). Specifically, we introduce LinFACT, an algorithm designed to optimize the identification of all ε-best arms in linear bandits. We establish a novel information-theoretic lower bound on the sample complexity of this problem and demonstrate that LinFACT achieves instance optimality by matching this lower bound up to a logarithmic factor. A key ingredient of our proof is to integrate the lower bound directly into the scaling process for upper bound derivation, determining the termination round and thus the sample complexity. We also extend our analysis to settings with model misspecification and generalized linear models. Numerical experiments, including synthetic and real drug discovery data, demonstrate that LinFACT identifies more promising candidates with reduced sample complexity, offering significant computational efficiency and accelerating early-stage exploratory experiments.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

Multi-controlled single-target (MC) gates are some of the most crucial building blocks for varied quantum algorithms. How to implement them optimally is thus a pivotal question. To answer this question in an architecture-independent manner, and to get a worst-case estimate, we should look at a linear nearest-neighbor (LNN) architecture, as this can be embedded in almost any qubit connectivity. Motivated by the above, here we describe a method which implements MC gates using no more than sim 4k+8n CNOT gates -- up-to 60% reduction over state-of-the-art -- while allowing for complete flexibility to choose the locations of n controls, the target, and a dirty ancilla out of k qubits. More strikingly, in case k approx n, our upper bound is sim 12n -- the best known for unrestricted connectivity -- and if n = 1, our upper bound is sim 4k -- the best known for a single long-range CNOT gate over k qubits -- therefore, if our upper bound can be reduced, then the cost of one or both of these simpler versions of MC gates will be immediately reduced accordingly. In practice, our method provides circuits that tend to require fewer CNOT gates than our upper bound for almost any given instance of MC gates.

Recent work has shown that it is possible to train deep neural networks that are provably robust to norm-bounded adversarial perturbations. Most of these methods are based on minimizing an upper bound on the worst-case loss over all possible adversarial perturbations. While these techniques show promise, they often result in difficult optimization procedures that remain hard to scale to larger networks. Through a comprehensive analysis, we show how a simple bounding technique, interval bound propagation (IBP), can be exploited to train large provably robust neural networks that beat the state-of-the-art in verified accuracy. While the upper bound computed by IBP can be quite weak for general networks, we demonstrate that an appropriate loss and clever hyper-parameter schedule allow the network to adapt such that the IBP bound is tight. This results in a fast and stable learning algorithm that outperforms more sophisticated methods and achieves state-of-the-art results on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and SVHN. It also allows us to train the largest model to be verified beyond vacuous bounds on a downscaled version of ImageNet.

Let F_{k,d}(n) be the maximal size of a set {A}subseteq [n] such that the equation \[a_1a_2\dots a_k=x^d, \; a_1<a_2<\ldots<a_k\] has no solution with a_1,a_2,ldots,a_kA and integer x. Erdos, S\'ark\"ozy and T. S\'os studied F_{k,2}, and gave bounds when k=2,3,4,6 and also in the general case. We study the problem for d=3, and provide bounds for k=2,3,4,6 and 9, furthermore, in the general case, as well. In particular, we refute an 18 years old conjecture of Verstra\"ete. We also introduce another function f_{k,d} closely related to F_{k,d}: While the original problem requires a_1, ldots , a_k to all be distinct, we can relax this and only require that the multiset of the a_i's cannot be partitioned into d-tuples where each d-tuple consists of d copies of the same number.

Thompson Sampling is one of the oldest heuristics for multi-armed bandit problems. It is a randomized algorithm based on Bayesian ideas, and has recently generated significant interest after several studies demonstrated it to have better empirical performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods. However, many questions regarding its theoretical performance remained open. In this paper, we design and analyze a generalization of Thompson Sampling algorithm for the stochastic contextual multi-armed bandit problem with linear payoff functions, when the contexts are provided by an adaptive adversary. This is among the most important and widely studied versions of the contextual bandits problem. We provide the first theoretical guarantees for the contextual version of Thompson Sampling. We prove a high probability regret bound of O(d^{3/2}T) (or O(dT log(N))), which is the best regret bound achieved by any computationally efficient algorithm available for this problem in the current literature, and is within a factor of d (or log(N)) of the information-theoretic lower bound for this problem.

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable performance over finite datasets, yet whether the scores over the fixed benchmarks can sufficiently indicate the model's performance in the real world is still in discussion. In reality, an ideal robust model will probably behave similarly to the oracle (e.g., the human users), thus a good evaluation protocol is probably to evaluate the models' behaviors in comparison to the oracle. In this paper, we introduce a new robustness measurement that directly measures the image classification model's performance compared with a surrogate oracle (i.e., a foundation model). Besides, we design a simple method that can accomplish the evaluation beyond the scope of the benchmarks. Our method extends the image datasets with new samples that are sufficiently perturbed to be distinct from the ones in the original sets, but are still bounded within the same image-label structure the original test image represents, constrained by a foundation model pretrained with a large amount of samples. As a result, our new method will offer us a new way to evaluate the models' robustness performance, free of limitations of fixed benchmarks or constrained perturbations, although scoped by the power of the oracle. In addition to the evaluation results, we also leverage our generated data to understand the behaviors of the model and our new evaluation strategies.

We introduce PREM (Private Relative Error Multiplicative weight update), a new framework for generating synthetic data that achieves a relative error guarantee for statistical queries under (varepsilon, δ) differential privacy (DP). Namely, for a domain {cal X}, a family {cal F} of queries f : {cal X} to {0, 1}, and ζ> 0, our framework yields a mechanism that on input dataset D cal X^n outputs a synthetic dataset D cal X^n such that all statistical queries in {cal F} on D, namely sum_{x in D} f(x) for f cal F, are within a 1 pm ζ multiplicative factor of the corresponding value on D up to an additive error that is polynomial in log |{cal F}|, log |{cal X}|, log n, log(1/δ), 1/varepsilon, and 1/ζ. In contrast, any (varepsilon, δ)-DP mechanism is known to require worst-case additive error that is polynomial in at least one of n, |{cal F}|, or |{cal X}|. We complement our algorithm with nearly matching lower bounds.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

We propose the Bayes-UCBVI algorithm for reinforcement learning in tabular, stage-dependent, episodic Markov decision process: a natural extension of the Bayes-UCB algorithm by Kaufmann et al. (2012) for multi-armed bandits. Our method uses the quantile of a Q-value function posterior as upper confidence bound on the optimal Q-value function. For Bayes-UCBVI, we prove a regret bound of order O(H^3SAT) where H is the length of one episode, S is the number of states, A the number of actions, T the number of episodes, that matches the lower-bound of Ω(H^3SAT) up to poly-log terms in H,S,A,T for a large enough T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that obtains an optimal dependence on the horizon H (and S) without the need for an involved Bernstein-like bonus or noise. Crucial to our analysis is a new fine-grained anti-concentration bound for a weighted Dirichlet sum that can be of independent interest. We then explain how Bayes-UCBVI can be easily extended beyond the tabular setting, exhibiting a strong link between our algorithm and Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin, 1981).

Given the damping factor α and precision tolerance ε, andersen2006local introduced Approximate Personalized PageRank (APPR), the de facto local method for approximating the PPR vector, with runtime bounded by Θ(1/(αε)) independent of the graph size. Recently, fountoulakis2022open asked whether faster local algorithms could be developed using O(1/(sqrtαε)) operations. By noticing that APPR is a local variant of Gauss-Seidel, this paper explores the question of whether standard iterative solvers can be effectively localized. We propose to use the locally evolving set process, a novel framework to characterize the algorithm locality, and demonstrate that many standard solvers can be effectively localized. Let operatorname{vol}{ (S_t)} and overlineγ_{t} be the running average of volume and the residual ratio of active nodes textstyle S_{t} during the process. We show operatorname{vol}{ (S_t)}/overlineγ_{t} leq 1/ε and prove APPR admits a new runtime bound O(operatorname{vol}(S_t)/(αoverlineγ_{t})) mirroring the actual performance. Furthermore, when the geometric mean of residual reduction is Θ(sqrtα), then there exists c in (0,2) such that the local Chebyshev method has runtime O(operatorname{vol}(S_{t})/(sqrtα(2-c))) without the monotonicity assumption. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of this novel framework and show up to a hundredfold speedup over corresponding standard solvers on real-world graphs.

Byte-Pair Encoding (BPE) is a popular algorithm used for tokenizing data in NLP, despite being devised initially as a compression method. BPE appears to be a greedy algorithm at face value, but the underlying optimization problem that BPE seeks to solve has not yet been laid down. We formalize BPE as a combinatorial optimization problem. Via submodular functions, we prove that the iterative greedy version is a 1{{sigma(mu^star)}}(1-e^{-{sigma(mu^star)}})-approximation of an optimal merge sequence, where {sigma(mu^star)} is the total backward curvature with respect to the optimal merge sequence mu^star. Empirically the lower bound of the approximation is approx 0.37. We provide a faster implementation of BPE which improves the runtime complexity from Oleft(N Mright) to Oleft(N log Mright), where N is the sequence length and M is the merge count. Finally, we optimize the brute-force algorithm for optimal BPE using memoization.

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

We present an elementary, self-contained proof of Grothendieck's inequality that unifies the real and complex cases and yields both the Krivine and Haagerup bounds, the current best-known explicit bounds for the real and complex Grothendieck constants respectively. This article is intended to be pedagogical, combining and streamlining known ideas of Lindenstrauss--Pe{\l}czy\'nski, Krivine, and Haagerup into a proof that need only univariate calculus, basic complex variables, and a modicum of linear algebra as prerequisites.

We consider the problem of online preemptive scheduling on a single machine to minimize the total flow time. In clairvoyant scheduling, where job processing times are revealed upon arrival, the Shortest Remaining Processing Time (SRPT) algorithm is optimal. In practice, however, exact processing times are often unknown. At the opposite extreme, non-clairvoyant scheduling, in which processing times are revealed only upon completion, suffers from strong lower bounds on the competitive ratio. This motivates the study of intermediate information models. We introduce a new model in which processing times are revealed gradually during execution. Each job consists of a sequence of operations, and the processing time of an operation becomes known only after the preceding one completes. This models many scheduling scenarios that arise in computing systems. Our main result is a deterministic O(m^2)-competitive algorithm, where m is the maximum number of operations per job. More specifically, we prove a refined competitive ratio in O(m_1 cdot m_2), where m_1 and m_2 are instance-dependent parameters describing the operation size structure. Our algorithm and analysis build on recent advancements in robust flow time minimization (SODA '26), where jobs arrive with estimated sizes. However, in our setting we have no bounded estimate on a job's processing time. Thus, we design a highly adaptive algorithm that gradually explores a job's operations while working on them, and groups them into virtual chunks whose size can be well-estimated. This is a crucial ingredient of our result and requires a much more careful analysis compared to the robust setting. We also provide lower bounds showing that our bounds are essentially best possible. For the special case of scheduling with uniform obligatory tests, we show that SRPT at the operation level is 2-competitive, which is best possible.

Modern machine learning models are sensitive to the manipulation of both the training data (poisoning attacks) and inference data (adversarial examples). Recognizing this issue, the community has developed many empirical defenses against both attacks and, more recently, certification methods with provable guarantees against inference-time attacks. However, such guarantees are still largely lacking for training-time attacks. In this work, we present FullCert, the first end-to-end certifier with sound, deterministic bounds, which proves robustness against both training-time and inference-time attacks. We first bound all possible perturbations an adversary can make to the training data under the considered threat model. Using these constraints, we bound the perturbations' influence on the model's parameters. Finally, we bound the impact of these parameter changes on the model's prediction, resulting in joint robustness guarantees against poisoning and adversarial examples. To facilitate this novel certification paradigm, we combine our theoretical work with a new open-source library BoundFlow, which enables model training on bounded datasets. We experimentally demonstrate FullCert's feasibility on two datasets.

The Bernays-Sch\"onfinkel first-order logic fragment over simple linear real arithmetic constraints BS(SLR) is known to be decidable. We prove that BS(SLR) clause sets with both universally and existentially quantified verification conditions (conjectures) can be translated into BS(SLR) clause sets over a finite set of first-order constants. For the Horn case, we provide a Datalog hammer preserving validity and satisfiability. A toolchain from the BS(LRA) prover SPASS-SPL to the Datalog reasoner VLog establishes an effective way of deciding verification conditions in the Horn fragment. This is exemplified by the verification of supervisor code for a lane change assistant in a car and of an electronic control unit for a supercharged combustion engine.

This paper presents a quantitative program verification infrastructure for discrete probabilistic programs. Our infrastructure can be viewed as the probabilistic analogue of Boogie: its central components are an intermediate verification language (IVL) together with a real-valued logic. Our IVL provides a programming-language-style for expressing verification conditions whose validity implies the correctness of a program under investigation. As our focus is on verifying quantitative properties such as bounds on expected outcomes, expected run-times, or termination probabilities, off-the-shelf IVLs based on Boolean first-order logic do not suffice. Instead, a paradigm shift from the standard Boolean to a real-valued domain is required. Our IVL features quantitative generalizations of standard verification constructs such as assume- and assert-statements. Verification conditions are generated by a weakest-precondition-style semantics, based on our real-valued logic. We show that our verification infrastructure supports natural encodings of numerous verification techniques from the literature. With our SMT-based implementation, we automatically verify a variety of benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, this establishes the first deductive verification infrastructure for expectation-based reasoning about probabilistic programs.

The optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) is a family of risk measures that cover important examples such as entropic risk, conditional value-at-risk and mean-variance models. In this paper, we propose a new episodic risk-sensitive reinforcement learning formulation based on tabular Markov decision processes with recursive OCEs. We design an efficient learning algorithm for this problem based on value iteration and upper confidence bound. We derive an upper bound on the regret of the proposed algorithm, and also establish a minimax lower bound. Our bounds show that the regret rate achieved by our proposed algorithm has optimal dependence on the number of episodes and the number of actions.

Current mathematical reasoning benchmarks for large language models (LLMs) are approaching saturation, with some achieving > 90% accuracy, and are increasingly compromised by training-set contamination. We introduce Putnam-AXIOM, a benchmark of 522 university-level competition problems drawn from the prestigious William Lowell Putnam Mathematical Competition, and Putnam-AXIOM Variation, an unseen companion set of 100 functional variants generated by programmatically perturbing variables and constants. The variation protocol produces an unlimited stream of equally difficult, unseen instances -- yielding a contamination-resilient test bed. On the Original set, OpenAI's o1-preview -- the strongest evaluated model -- scores 41.9%, but its accuracy drops by 19.6% (46.8% relative decrease) on the paired Variations. The remaining eighteen models show the same downward trend, ten of them with non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals. These gaps suggest memorization and highlight the necessity of dynamic benchmarks. We complement "boxed" accuracy with Teacher-Forced Accuracy (TFA), a lightweight metric that directly scores reasoning traces and automates natural language proof evaluations. Putnam-AXIOM therefore provides a rigorous, contamination-resilient evaluation framework for assessing advanced mathematical reasoning of LLMs. Data and evaluation code are publicly available at https://github.com/brando90/putnam-axiom.

There are now several comprehensive web applications, stand-alone computer programs and computer algebra functions that, given a floating point number such as 6.518670730718491, can return concise nonfloat constants such as 3 arctan 2 + ln 9 + 1, that closely approximate the float. Examples include AskConstants, Inverse Symbolic Calculator, the Maple identify function, MESearch, OEIS, RIES, and WolframAlpha. Usefully often such a result is the exact limit as the float is computed with increasing precision. Therefore these program results are candidates for proving an exact result that you could not otherwise compute or conjecture without the program. Moreover, candidates that are not the exact limit can be provable bounds, or convey qualitative insight, or suggest series that they truncate, or provide sufficiently close efficient approximations for subsequent computation. This article describes some of these programs, how they work, and how best to use each of them. Almost everyone who uses or should use mathematical software can benefit from acquaintance with several such programs, because these programs differ in the sets of constants that they can return.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

We consider a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem for maximum value reward function under maximum value and index feedback. This is a new feedback structure that lies in between commonly studied semi-bandit and full-bandit feedback structures. We propose an algorithm and provide a regret bound for problem instances with stochastic arm outcomes according to arbitrary distributions with finite supports. The regret analysis rests on considering an extended set of arms, associated with values and probabilities of arm outcomes, and applying a smoothness condition. Our algorithm achieves a O((k/Delta)log(T)) distribution-dependent and a O(T) distribution-independent regret where k is the number of arms selected in each round, Delta is a distribution-dependent reward gap and T is the horizon time. Perhaps surprisingly, the regret bound is comparable to previously-known bound under more informative semi-bandit feedback. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through experimental results.

The recent explosion in the capabilities of large language models has led to a wave of interest in how best to prompt a model to perform a given task. While it may be tempting to simply choose a prompt based on average performance on a validation set, this can lead to a deployment where unexpectedly poor responses are generated, especially for the worst-off users. To mitigate this prospect, we propose Prompt Risk Control, a lightweight framework for selecting a prompt based on rigorous upper bounds on families of informative risk measures. We offer methods for producing bounds on a diverse set of metrics, including quantities that measure worst-case responses and disparities in generation quality across the population of users. In addition, we extend the underlying statistical bounding techniques to accommodate the possibility of distribution shifts in deployment. Experiments on applications such as open-ended chat, medical question summarization, and code generation highlight how such a framework can foster responsible deployment by reducing the risk of the worst outcomes.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

We show that for all functions t(n) geq n, every multitape Turing machine running in time t can be simulated in space only O(t log t). This is a substantial improvement over Hopcroft, Paul, and Valiant's simulation of time t in O(t/log t) space from 50 years ago [FOCS 1975, JACM 1977]. Among other results, our simulation implies that bounded fan-in circuits of size s can be evaluated on any input in only s cdot poly(log s) space, and that there are explicit problems solvable in O(n) space which require n^{2-varepsilon} time on a multitape Turing machine for all varepsilon > 0, thereby making a little progress on the P versus PSPACE problem. Our simulation reduces the problem of simulating time-bounded multitape Turing machines to a series of implicitly-defined Tree Evaluation instances with nice parameters, leveraging the remarkable space-efficient algorithm for Tree Evaluation recently found by Cook and Mertz [STOC 2024].

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

Policy optimization methods are popular reinforcement learning algorithms in practice. Recent works have built theoretical foundation for them by proving T regret bounds even when the losses are adversarial. Such bounds are tight in the worst case but often overly pessimistic. In this work, we show that in tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs), by properly designing the regularizer, the exploration bonus and the learning rates, one can achieve a more favorable polylog(T) regret when the losses are stochastic, without sacrificing the worst-case guarantee in the adversarial regime. To our knowledge, this is also the first time a gap-dependent polylog(T) regret bound is shown for policy optimization. Specifically, we achieve this by leveraging a Tsallis entropy or a Shannon entropy regularizer in the policy update. Then we show that under known transitions, we can further obtain a first-order regret bound in the adversarial regime by leveraging the log-barrier regularizer.