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Nov 11

To Align or Not To Align: Check Your COMPASS Before You Train

Combining pretrained models is a common strategy for building AI systems, whether by aligning a vision encoder with a language model or merging fine-tuned checkpoints. However, finding compatible pairs typically requires costly empirical search, as compatibility is known only after alignment or merging. We propose COMPASS (COMPatibility ASsessment Score), a theoretically motivated diagnostic that estimates whether a model pair will be compatible prior to alignment or merging. Building on the observation that representational convergence is most robust at the level of local neighborhoods, COMPASS decomposes model compatibility into two cheap-to-compute axes: a pair-specific ease, defined as the k-NN overlap between the two encoders, and a paradigm-level ceiling, capturing the maximum overlap their training paradigms allow. Together, these two axes provide a ranking of candidate model pairs and prescribe how to act on each pair: (i) prioritize pairs that already agree and whose paradigms are compatible, (ii) invest additional compute on pairs with compatible paradigms but low initial agreement, (iii) switch the pretraining paradigm when it cannot support sufficient agreement, or (iv) deprioritize pairs that score poorly on both axes. We apply COMPASS to 72 cross-modal alignment experiments and 392 task-arithmetic model merges and show that compatibility estimates by COMPASS strongly correlate with downstream success, achieving average Pearson correlation of 0.91 on cross-modal alignment tasks and 0.70 on model merging.

epfl-ch EPFL
·
Oct 12 2

How Good Can Linear Models Be for Time-Series Forecasting?

Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy. We take the opposite position: most of the gap can be closed at far lower cost by tuning preprocessing rather than scaling models. We use Ridge regression as the testbed, since it has a closed-form solution and interpretable weights, which let the optimal hyperparameters be read off the search directly. We search over context length, local normalization, regularization, and augmentation on eight standard benchmarks and find three patterns. (1) Optimal lookback is strongly series-specific and often non-monotonic in forecast horizon, with fitted power-law exponents ranging from +0.46 on ETTm2 to -0.19 on Exchange and Traffic, challenging the convention that longer horizons need longer history. (2) Normalizing over a learned trailing fraction of the context, rather than its entirety, is almost universally preferred. (3) Series within the same dataset often disagree on hyperparameters; the optimal degree of cross-series sharing varies from fully shared to fully per-series. The resulting models beat prior linear forecasters on most dataset-horizon entries and exceed Transformer, MLP, and CNN baselines on six of eight benchmarks. The optimized hyperparameters also serve as a diagnostic on the data itself, revealing structures that larger models absorb silently into their learned parameters.

SakanaAI Sakana AI
·
Jun 24 3

Naturalness and the muon magnetic moment

We study a predictive model for explaining the apparent deviation of the muon anomalous magnetic moment from the Standard Model expectation. There are no new scalars and hence no new hierarchy puzzles beyond those associated with the Higgs; the only new particles at the TeV scale are vector-like singlet and doublet leptons. Interestingly, this simple model provides a calculable example violating the Wilsonian notion of naturalness: despite the absence of any symmetries prohibiting its generation, the coefficient of the naively leading dimension-six operator for (g-2) vanishes at one-loop. While effective field theorists interpret this either as a surprising UV cancellation of power divergences, or as a delicate cancellation between matching UV and calculable IR corrections to (g-2) from parametrically separated scales, there is a simple explanation in the full theory: the loop integrand is a total derivative of a function vanishing in both the deep UV and IR. The leading contribution to (g-2) arises from dimension-eight operators, and thus the required masses of new fermions are lower than naively expected, with a sizeable portion of parameter space already covered by direct searches at the LHC. The viable parameter space free of fine-tuning for the muon mass will be fully covered by future direct LHC searches, and {\it all} of the parameter space can be probed by precision measurements at planned future lepton colliders.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 25, 2021

OTAP: Structure-Aware Optimal Transport for Evaluating Planning and Execution in Agent Trajectories

Large language model agents solve tasks by generating trajectories that interleave planning, tool calls, and intermediate results. Current evaluation metrics reduce such a trajectory to a binary success flag, compare it against a reference by exact matching, or delegate judgment to another language model. A success flag cannot distinguish a sound solution from one that succeeds by luck, and says nothing about why a failed run went wrong. Exact matching penalizes plans that are valid but reordered or decomposed differently from the reference. We reframe trajectory evaluation as a distance between the agent's execution graph and a set of valid solution graphs, and instantiate it via an unbalanced fused Gromov-Wasserstein transport problem over attributed dependency graphs. The resulting score, termed OTAP (Optimal Transport for Agentic Planning), is a pseudo-metric that is provably invariant to dependency-preserving reorderings and has bounded sensitivity to redundant steps. Its unbalanced marginals handle missing or hallucinated steps without forcing a match, and its soft coupling accommodates variation in plan granularity. On controlled perturbations and three public benchmarks, OTAP separates valid from invalid trajectories in a regime where semantics-only metrics score below chance. Its advantage tracks the fidelity of the dependency graph: largest where edges follow from operator semantics, smallest where they are inferred from free text. Where a formal verifier exists, strict surface metrics predict validity better than OTAP does, which places OTAP in open-ended domains where no verifier is available.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 31