Daily Papers

This paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning architecture that was inspired by previous tree structured architectures which were only useable in discrete action spaces. Policy Prediction Network offers a way to improve sample complexity and performance on continuous control problems in exchange for extra computation at training time but at no cost in computation at rollout time. Our approach integrates a mix between model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Policy Prediction Network is the first to introduce implicit model-based learning to Policy Gradient algorithms for continuous action space and is made possible via the empirically justified clipping scheme. Our experiments are focused on the MuJoCo environments so that they can be compared with similar work done in this area.

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms can compute policy gradients given sampled environment transitions, but require large amounts of data. In contrast, model-based methods can use the learned model to generate new data, but model errors and bias can render learning unstable or suboptimal. In this paper, we present a novel method that combines real-world data and a learned model in order to get the best of both worlds. The core idea is to exploit the real-world data for on-policy predictions and use the learned model only to generalize to different actions. Specifically, we use the data as time-dependent on-policy correction terms on top of a learned model, to retain the ability to generate data without accumulating errors over long prediction horizons. We motivate this method theoretically and show that it counteracts an error term for model-based policy improvement. Experiments on MuJoCo- and PyBullet-benchmarks show that our method can drastically improve existing model-based approaches without introducing additional tuning parameters.

We propose Algorithm Distillation (AD), a method for distilling reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms into neural networks by modeling their training histories with a causal sequence model. Algorithm Distillation treats learning to reinforcement learn as an across-episode sequential prediction problem. A dataset of learning histories is generated by a source RL algorithm, and then a causal transformer is trained by autoregressively predicting actions given their preceding learning histories as context. Unlike sequential policy prediction architectures that distill post-learning or expert sequences, AD is able to improve its policy entirely in-context without updating its network parameters. We demonstrate that AD can reinforcement learn in-context in a variety of environments with sparse rewards, combinatorial task structure, and pixel-based observations, and find that AD learns a more data-efficient RL algorithm than the one that generated the source data.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard post-training method for diffusion models, but most RL objectives roll out the current policy at every iteration, and with a many-step sampler these rollouts typically dominate the cost of training. Few-step models cut this cost, yet they model an average velocity over an interval, whereas existing RL objectives are built for an instantaneous velocity with a many-step sampler. We adapt RL objectives to few-step models systematically in three phases, namely a transformation, a decomposition and an adaptation. The transformation to x-space expresses each objective we consider through a common policy prediction, at the clean end by default and at an explicitly marked level for transition or flow-map objectives, so that objectives stated over densities, velocities or rewards become comparable. The decomposition writes the gradient of each of these objectives as the sum of a self-regression toward a reference and a reward augmentation, so that a method reduces, at the gradient level, to a choice of anchors and weights. The adaptation computes each anchor from a few-step model at the end of its transport or along its tangent, with the instantaneous velocity recovered from the network itself or from an auxiliary network. This yields few-step versions of FlowGRPO, AWM, DiffusionNFT, DiffusionOPSD and ReFL in one modular codebase. In our experiments, reward-gradient-based methods are the most effective when the reward is differentiable and its gradient is affordable; otherwise DiffusionNFT-style methods generally reach high rewards in relatively few iterations despite a sometimes higher per-iteration cost. Extra inference steps show no systematic aggregate benefit in our experiments, although selected outputs visibly improve with two to four times as many sampling steps as in training.

Vision--Language--Action (VLA) policies have shown strong progress in mapping language instructions and visual observations to robotic actions, yet their reliability degrades in cluttered scenes with distractors. By analyzing failure cases, we find that many errors do not arise from infeasible motions, but from instance-level grounding failures: the policy often produces a plausible grasp trajectory that lands slightly off-target or even on the wrong object instance. To address this issue, we propose TAG (Target-Agnostic Guidance), a simple inference-time guidance mechanism that explicitly reduces distractor- and appearance-induced bias in VLA policies. Inspired by classifier-free guidance (CFG), TAG contrasts policy predictions under the original observation and an object-erased observation, and uses their difference as a residual steering signal that strengthens the influence of object evidence in the decision process. TAG does not require modifying the policy architecture and can be integrated with existing VLA policies with minimal training and inference changes. We evaluate TAG on standard manipulation benchmarks, including LIBERO, LIBERO-Plus, and VLABench, where it consistently improves robustness under clutter and reduces near-miss and wrong-object executions.

Most value function learning algorithms in reinforcement learning are based on the mean squared (projected) Bellman error. However, squared errors are known to be sensitive to outliers, both skewing the solution of the objective and resulting in high-magnitude and high-variance gradients. To control these high-magnitude updates, typical strategies in RL involve clipping gradients, clipping rewards, rescaling rewards, or clipping errors. While these strategies appear to be related to robust losses -- like the Huber loss -- they are built on semi-gradient update rules which do not minimize a known loss. In this work, we build on recent insights reformulating squared Bellman errors as a saddlepoint optimization problem and propose a saddlepoint reformulation for a Huber Bellman error and Absolute Bellman error. We start from a formalization of robust losses, then derive sound gradient-based approaches to minimize these losses in both the online off-policy prediction and control settings. We characterize the solutions of the robust losses, providing insight into the problem settings where the robust losses define notably better solutions than the mean squared Bellman error. Finally, we show that the resulting gradient-based algorithms are more stable, for both prediction and control, with less sensitivity to meta-parameters.

High-quality demonstration data are essential for humanoid robot skill learning, especially for whole-body behaviors that require coordinated perception, locomotion, and manipulation. Existing data-collection methods largely rely on robot teleoperation, which is constrained by hardware accessibility, operator expertise, and limited efficiency. Inspired by the Universal Manipulation Interface (UMI), we propose HumanoidUMI, a portable and robot-free framework for humanoid whole-body data collection. HumanoidUMI uses lightweight VR devices and UMI-inspired grippers to collect sparse human keypoint trajectories, wrist-view observations, and gripper actions. These demonstrations train a high-level policy to predict future keypoints, which are retargeted to robot-native whole-body references and executed by a whole-body controller. Experiments in five real-world scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework and validate the collected demonstrations for transferable humanoid whole-body skill learning.

Driver alerting from dashcam video requires sequential decision-making under partial observability: a system must decide not only whether a scene is risky, but also when the evidence is sufficient to warn. Most existing accident anticipation models output a binary risk score, leaving ambiguous scenes to be handled by thresholding. We propose VLAlert, a vision-language alerting framework that casts warning generation as a tri-action policy over SILENT, OBSERVE, and ALERT. The OBSERVE action acts as an internal evidence-gathering decision that delays uncertain warnings and changes the next observation window, creating a lightweight perception-action loop for adaptive alerting. VLAlert uses Qwen3-VL-4B as a safety-evidence generator and pools hidden states from structured belief spans to form compact representations for danger estimation and policy prediction. We evaluate VLAlert on VLAlert-Bench, a unified per-tick benchmark from four real-world dashcam alert datasets, and further test transfer to held-out naturalistic ADAS takeover clips. On VLAlert-Bench validation, VLAlert achieves the highest deployment-oriented utility among tested baselines, with DAUS 0.4878 compared with 0.4752 for Open-BADAS, and improves AUROC, AP_tick, F1_t, and balanced accuracy from 0.610, 0.176, 0.276, and 0.581 to 0.689, 0.195, 0.297, and 0.648, respectively. On 221 held-out ADAS-TO-Critic clips, VLAlert improves R@5s from 74.2% to 88.7% and F1 from 0.585 to 0.686. These results indicate that adaptive observation and safety-focused VLM representations provide measurable gains for driver-facing alert decisions.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a promising route to sample-efficient policy optimization. However, a known vulnerability of reconstruction-based MBRL consists of scenarios in which detailed aspects of the world are highly predictable, but irrelevant to learning a good policy. Such scenarios can lead the model to exhaust its capacity on meaningless content, at the cost of neglecting important environment dynamics. While existing approaches attempt to solve this problem, we highlight its continuing impact on leading MBRL methods -- including DreamerV3 and DreamerPro -- with a novel environment where background distractions are intricate, predictable, and useless for planning future actions. To address this challenge we develop a method for focusing the capacity of the world model through synergy of a pretrained segmentation model, a task-aware reconstruction loss, and adversarial learning. Our method outperforms a variety of other approaches designed to reduce the impact of distractors, and is an advance towards robust model-based reinforcement learning.

Visual representations play a crucial role in developing generalist robotic policies. Previous vision encoders, typically pre-trained with single-image reconstruction or two-image contrastive learning, tend to capture static information, often neglecting the dynamic aspects vital for embodied tasks. Recently, video diffusion models (VDMs) demonstrate the ability to predict future frames and showcase a strong understanding of physical world. We hypothesize that VDMs inherently produce visual representations that encompass both current static information and predicted future dynamics, thereby providing valuable guidance for robot action learning. Based on this hypothesis, we propose the Video Prediction Policy (VPP), which learns implicit inverse dynamics model conditioned on predicted future representations inside VDMs. To predict more precise future, we fine-tune pre-trained video foundation model on robot datasets along with internet human manipulation data. In experiments, VPP achieves a 18.6\% relative improvement on the Calvin ABC-D generalization benchmark compared to the previous state-of-the-art, and demonstrates a 31.6\% increase in success rates for complex real-world dexterous manipulation tasks. Project page at https://video-prediction-policy.github.io

World action models (WAMs) have emerged as an important class of generalist robot policies, aiming to transfer video prediction priors to action learning. However, we find that existing WAMs frequently produce incorrect motion predictions in open-ended environment, leading to erroneous actions. We attribute this limitation to two factors: (1) base video models are not optimized for manipulation, and (2) naively incorporating action components into video models can substantially degrade their generalization capabilities. We introduce Video Prediction Policy 2 (VPP2), a WAM that enables strong zero-shot generalization in both video prediction and action generation. First, we curate a large-scale, diverse dataset of manipulation videos to continue pretraining the base video foundation model. We annotate video clips with detailed captions and perform event-level video pretraining to promote generalization across open-ended manipulation tasks. Second, we post-train and distill the video model into a single-step visual planner with fixed prediction horizon. Finally, we introduce action module via a mixture-of-transformers (MoT) architecture to learn implicit inverse dynamics model. Experiments demonstrate three key results: (1) VPP2-14B outperforms Cosmos3-64B by 11.0\% points in video prediction instruction-following success rate on open-ended tasks; (2) VPP2 surpasses the strongest baseline by 18.5\% points in success rate on real-world zero-shot ALOHA manipulation tasks; and (3) following benchmark-specific post-training, VPP2 achieves the highest success rates among evaluated methods on the challenging LIBERO-Pro, LIBERO-OOD, and RoboDojo benchmarks.

Despite great strides in language-guided manipulation, existing work has been constrained to table-top settings. Table-tops allow for perfect and consistent camera angles, properties are that do not hold in mobile manipulation. Task plans that involve moving around the environment must be robust to egocentric views and changes in the plane and angle of grasp. A further challenge is ensuring this is all true while still being able to learn skills efficiently from limited data. We propose Spatial-Language Attention Policies (SLAP) as a solution. SLAP uses three-dimensional tokens as the input representation to train a single multi-task, language-conditioned action prediction policy. Our method shows an 80% success rate in the real world across eight tasks with a single model, and a 47.5% success rate when unseen clutter and unseen object configurations are introduced, even with only a handful of examples per task. This represents an improvement of 30% over prior work (20% given unseen distractors and configurations). We see a 4x improvement over baseline in mobile manipulation setting. In addition, we show how SLAPs robustness allows us to execute Task Plans from open-vocabulary instructions using a large language model for multi-step mobile manipulation. For videos, see the website: https://robotslap.github.io

We introduce Iterated Bellman Calibration, a simple, model-agnostic, post-hoc procedure for calibrating off-policy value predictions in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. Bellman calibration requires that states with similar predicted long-term returns exhibit one-step returns consistent with the Bellman equation under the target policy. We adapt classical histogram and isotonic calibration to the dynamic, counterfactual setting by repeatedly regressing fitted Bellman targets onto a model's predictions, using a doubly robust pseudo-outcome to handle off-policy data. This yields a one-dimensional fitted value iteration scheme that can be applied to any value estimator. Our analysis provides finite-sample guarantees for both calibration and prediction under weak assumptions, and critically, without requiring Bellman completeness or realizability.

Whole-body loco-manipulation for quadruped robots with arms remains a challenging problem, particularly in achieving multi-task control. To address this, we propose MLM, a reinforcement learning framework driven by both real-world and simulation data. It enables a six-DoF robotic arm-equipped quadruped robot to perform whole-body loco-manipulation for multiple tasks autonomously or under human teleoperation. To address the problem of balancing multiple tasks during the learning of loco-manipulation, we introduce a trajectory library with an adaptive, curriculum-based sampling mechanism. This approach allows the policy to efficiently leverage real-world collected trajectories for learning multi-task loco-manipulation. To address deployment scenarios with only historical observations and to enhance the performance of policy execution across tasks with different spatial ranges, we propose a Trajectory-Velocity Prediction policy network. It predicts unobservable future trajectories and velocities. By leveraging extensive simulation data and curriculum-based rewards, our controller achieves whole-body behaviors in simulation and zero-shot transfer to real-world deployment. Ablation studies in simulation verify the necessity and effectiveness of our approach, while real-world experiments on a Go2 robot with an Airbot robotic arm demonstrate the policy's good performance in multi-task execution.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated significant capabilities in image understanding, but long-video are constrained by context windows and computational cost. Uniform frame sampling often leads to substantial information loss. Meanwhile existing keyframe selection methods such as text-frame retrieval or RL-based frame optimization typically yield sparse and temporally disjointed frames, overlooking scene continuity and lacking flexibility for multi-scale frame selection. To address these limitations, we introduce K-frames, a novel paradigm for scene-driven keyframe selection that preserves temporal continuity. Instead of selecting individual frames, K-frames predicts semantically coherent, query-relevant clips, which enables any-k keyframes selection to meet diverse user budgets. To achieve this approach, we first introduce PeakClips, a dataset of 200K video highlights conditioned by query. Building on this dataset, K-frames learns clip2frame selection using a three-stage progressive curriculum. It involves two Supervised Fine-Tuning stages for temporal grounding and key-clip perception, followed by a Reinforcement Learning stage that directly optimizes the scene-driven prediction policy for downstream task without further annotations. Extensive experiments on major long-video understanding benchmarks demonstrate that K-frames provides an effective, interpretable, and plug-and-play solution for keyframe selection at various scales. Our dataset and model will be available.

We propose the Representation World Model (RWM), which learns states, transitions, and executable plans directly in representation space. Unlike existing world models that typically learn latent representations together with explicit dynamics models and perform planning through search, optimization, or policy-based prediction, RWM directly incorporates planning into the learned representation geometry. RWM learns the representation geometry by applying inverse-dynamics supervision locally along latent paths constructed from endpoint representations, requiring these paths to preserve task-relevant state and transition information. At inference, planning is performed by directly constructing a latent path between the current and goal representations, with inverse dynamics used to recover the corresponding actions, without recursive rollouts or action-space search. Experiments on continuous-control benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of RWM for direct planning, while results on robotic manipulation further show its potential to extend to more complex embodied control tasks. These results suggest that planning directly in representation space provides a promising alternative to conventional world-model planning.

Agentic reinforcement learning (RL) has become a critical stage in the post-training of large language models. Existing critic-free, group-relative methods estimate policy advantages from multiple rollouts, avoiding the substantial memory overhead of conventional proximal policy optimization (PPO) and achieving strong performance on long-horizon interactive tasks. Despite their success, recent studies revealed three limitations: (1) Lack explicit value generalization and effective temporal credit assignment; (2) Suffer from potential advantage collapse in long-horizon complex tasks; (3) Require a costly trade-off between sampling budget and policy performance. In this work, we propose Single-rollout Autoregressive Policy Optimization (SAPO), a low-memory and compute-efficient framework in which the policy and value functions share a single autoregressive backbone. SAPO exploits the autoregressive structure of LLMs to produce policy and value predictions at distinct causal boundaries with shared parameters, while independently optimizing the PPO objectives and auxiliary on-policy SARSA objectives. To robustly estimate the contribution of each turn, we further introduce a trajectory-level generalized advantage estimator that combines lambda-returns with batch normalization. Experiments across ALFWorld and WebShop with Qwen2.5-1.5B/7B show that SAPO trains stably and outperforms PPO and GRPO by mean +15.1 and +12.1 percentage points, respectively, while eliminating the memory cost of a separate critic model and reducing per-iteration runtime by 33.2% over PPO.

The ability to understand physical dynamics is critical for agents to act in the world. Here, we use Counterfactual World Modeling (CWM) to extract vision structures for dynamics understanding. CWM uses a temporally-factored masking policy for masked prediction of video data without annotations. This policy enables highly effective "counterfactual prompting" of the predictor, allowing a spectrum of visual structures to be extracted from a single pre-trained predictor without finetuning on annotated datasets. We demonstrate that these structures are useful for physical dynamics understanding, allowing CWM to achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the Physion benchmark.

Image-based reinforcement learning (RL) faces significant challenges in generalization when the visual environment undergoes substantial changes between training and deployment. Under such circumstances, learned policies may not perform well leading to degraded results. Previous approaches to this problem have largely focused on broadening the training observation distribution, employing techniques like data augmentation and domain randomization. However, given the sequential nature of the RL decision-making problem, it is often the case that residual errors are propagated by the learned policy model and accumulate throughout the trajectory, resulting in highly degraded performance. In this paper, we leverage the observation that predicted rewards under domain shift, even though imperfect, can still be a useful signal to guide fine-tuning. We exploit this property to fine-tune a policy using reward prediction in the target domain. We have found that, even under significant domain shift, the predicted reward can still provide meaningful signal and fine-tuning substantially improves the original policy. Our approach, termed Predicted Reward Fine-tuning (PRFT), improves performance across diverse tasks in both simulated benchmarks and real-world experiments. More information is available at project web page: https://sites.google.com/view/prft.

Action-conditioned video models offer a promising path to building general-purpose robot simulators that can improve directly from data. Yet, despite training on large-scale robot datasets, current state-of-the-art video models still struggle to predict physically consistent robot-object interactions that are crucial in robotic manipulation. To close this gap, we present PlayWorld, a simple, scalable, and fully autonomous pipeline for training high-fidelity video world simulators from interaction experience. In contrast to prior approaches that rely on success-biased human demonstrations, PlayWorld is the first system capable of learning entirely from unsupervised robot self-play, enabling naturally scalable data collection while capturing complex, long-tailed physical interactions essential for modeling realistic object dynamics. Experiments across diverse manipulation tasks show that PlayWorld generates high-quality, physically consistent predictions for contact-rich interactions that are not captured by world models trained on human-collected data. We further demonstrate the versatility of PlayWorld in enabling fine-grained failure prediction and policy evaluation, with up to 40% improvements over human-collected data. Finally, we demonstrate how PlayWorld enables reinforcement learning in the world model, improving policy performance by 65% in success rates when deployed in the real world.

Can representations learned for image generation also support the evaluation of generated images? We study text-to-image reward prediction as a downstream task of generative representation learning. To this end, we introduce DiT-Reward, which converts a pretrained text-to-image Diffusion Transformer into a reward model by processing near-clean image latents and aggregating text-conditioned image representations across transformer layers. Under the same training data mixture as HPSv3, DiT-Reward outperforms HPSv3 on all four evaluated preference benchmarks, reaching 85.6% on HPDv2 and 77.6% on HPDv3. When the generative backbone is frozen, a lightweight learned head can still extract meaningful preference predictions from its representations. Probing across depth further reveals that downstream reward performance is strongest in the middle-to-late layers and benefits from combining representations across different stages. We also observe consistent positive scaling with generative backbone capacity. Finally, when used to optimize Stable Diffusion 3.5 Large with Flow-GRPO, DiT-Reward outperforms HPSv3 along the matched training trajectory, with particularly clear gains in realism. Direct latent scoring also achieves a 1.65x inference speedup over HPSv3 with comparable peak memory. These results show that pretrained generative DiTs provide transferable representations for reward modeling and policy optimization.

Anticipating financial outcomes requires synthesizing evolving evidence and reasoning under uncertainty, making deep research systems promising tools for forecasting. Yet evaluating forecasting ability is challenging because historical backtests may reward memorized outcomes or information retrieved after the forecast date. Live forecasting avoids direct access to realized outcomes, but feedback arrives only after events resolve. To obtain timely feedback and assess historical scores, we introduce FinForesight, a diagnostic backtesting benchmark for financial deep research systems. Across the Chinese, U.S., and Hong Kong markets, the benchmark evaluates four forecasting tasks: valuation, return ranking, event direction, and future financial fundamentals. Two capability diagnostic tasks assess counterfactual reasoning and financial calculation, scored separately from forecasting performance. Our harness-compatible framework restricts retrieved evidence to information available at the forecast date. We compare pretraining-era, resolved post-cutoff, and live evaluations to test whether controlled backtests approximate future performance. Pretraining-era scores exceed post-cutoff scores in most temporal comparisons, and stronger retrieval controls narrow the gap between post-cutoff backtests and live results. Forecasting attribution and robustness analyses reveal how scores respond to retrieval policy and how predictions respond to prompt rewrites and numerical perturbations. The code and benchmark data are publicly available.

Constructing states from sequences of observations is an important component of reinforcement learning agents. One solution for state construction is to use recurrent neural networks. Back-propagation through time (BPTT), and real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) are two popular gradient-based methods for recurrent learning. BPTT requires complete trajectories of observations before it can compute the gradients and is unsuitable for online updates. RTRL can do online updates but scales poorly to large networks. In this paper, we propose two constraints that make RTRL scalable. We show that by either decomposing the network into independent modules or learning the network in stages, we can make RTRL scale linearly with the number of parameters. Unlike prior scalable gradient estimation algorithms, such as UORO and Truncated-BPTT, our algorithms do not add noise or bias to the gradient estimate. Instead, they trade off the functional capacity of the network for computationally efficient learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over Truncated-BPTT on a prediction benchmark inspired by animal learning and by doing policy evaluation of pre-trained policies for Atari 2600 games.

This work highlights that video world modeling, alongside vision-language pre-training, establishes a fresh and independent foundation for robot learning. Intuitively, video world models provide the ability to imagine the near future by understanding the causality between actions and visual dynamics. Inspired by this, we introduce LingBot-VA, an autoregressive diffusion framework that learns frame prediction and policy execution simultaneously. Our model features three carefully crafted designs: (1) a shared latent space, integrating vision and action tokens, driven by a Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) architecture, (2) a closed-loop rollout mechanism, allowing for ongoing acquisition of environmental feedback with ground-truth observations, (3) an asynchronous inference pipeline, parallelizing action prediction and motor execution to support efficient control. We evaluate our model on both simulation benchmarks and real-world scenarios, where it shows significant promise in long-horizon manipulation, data efficiency in post-training, and strong generalizability to novel configurations. The code and model are made publicly available to facilitate the community.

Robotic manipulation in the open world requires not only recognizing what a scene looks like, but also anticipating how its 3D structure moves under interaction. We argue that synchronized RGB, depth, and optical flow, namely RGB-DF, provide a physically grounded representation that captures the underlying 4D dynamics of a scene. Compared to 2D pixel videos, this multi-modal synergy aligns visual appearance with geometric structure and temporal motion, creating a representation space significantly closer to the low-level end-effector actions demanded by robotic systems, thereby narrowing the gap between world prediction and policy learning. Building on this insight, we introduce RynnWorld-4D, a generative model that co-produces future RGB frames, depth maps, and optical flow from a single RGB-D image and a language instruction within one unified diffusion process. This 4D world model features a tri-branch architecture that integrates cross-modal attention with frame-wise 3D RoPE, ensuring that appearance, geometry, and motion evolve consistently. To supply training data at scale, we curate Rynn4DDataset 1.0, a massive dataset of over 254.4 million frames across egocentric human and robotic manipulation videos with high-quality pseudo-labels for depth and optical flow. We further propose RynnWorld-4D-Policy, an inverse dynamics head that consumes the internal 4D representations of RynnWorld-4D in a single forward pass, bypassing expensive multi-step denoising, to output robot actions in a closed-loop manner. Experiments show that RynnWorld-4D produces temporally and spatially coherent 4D predictions, and that RynnWorld-4D-Policy achieves state-of-the-art performance on real-world dexterous bimanual manipulation tasks, particularly excelling in tasks demanding spatial precision and temporal coordination.

Contact locations and interaction forces are critical for contact-rich robot manipulation but are often ambiguous from vision alone. Measuring them on robots requires specialized tactile hardware and platform-specific data collection, which keeps robot tactile data scarce. Human egocentric video is far easier to scale but lacks touch. Recent predictors trained on egocentric recordings paired with tactile-glove measurements can predict this missing signal from video alone. These predictors, however, remain confined to human hands, which differ from robot hands in appearance and tactile layout. We present Ego2Contact, which learns a visual-tactile prior from human interactions and transfers it to robot hands. Its predictor fuses temporal scene context with hand-local visual features to infer bimanual tactile fields from the RGB video. Anatomical region correspondences align varying robot tactile layouts with the predictor's canonical grid, turning robot measurements into fine-tuning targets and predictions into policy inputs. Ego2Contact outperforms prior tactile predictors on human data, including unseen objects, and on robot data after adaptation. The adapted predictor provides tactile inputs for both simulated reinforcement learning and real-robot policy post-training. In simulation, policies using predicted touch outperform non-tactile baselines and recover part of the benefit of ground-truth tactile sensing. These results show that human-learned tactile priors can supply touch when direct tactile sensing is limited.

Standard behavior cloning supervises actions without explicitly constraining the future representation paired with each demonstrated action chunk. We introduce JEPA Policy, a diffusion-free framework that uses the action chunk and its observed future representation as paired training targets. Action and future-representation tokens interact in a shared Transformer and are refined through two forward passes. Future prediction can therefore shape the representation used to generate actions. Dual-branch and gradient-routing controls attribute the gain to this shared topology rather than to an auxiliary prediction head alone. Across nine simulated tasks, JEPA Policy improves mean success over the action-only MIP baseline and outperforms Diffusion Policy under the evaluated configurations, while adding 0.29 ms to MIP's model latency. A five-task, 630-episode physical-robot study produces the same pooled ranking. Further audits find no complete representation collapse under action supervision and identify a task-conditioned failure-ranking signal in future-prediction error. These results support paired future-representation supervision as a practical approach to low-latency visuomotor imitation without iterative generative sampling.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred interest in designing LLM-based agents for tasks that involve interaction with human and artificial agents. This paper addresses a key aspect in the design of such agents: Predicting human decision in off-policy evaluation (OPE), focusing on language-based persuasion games, where the agent's goal is to influence its partner's decisions through verbal messages. Using a dedicated application, we collected a dataset of 87K decisions from humans playing a repeated decision-making game with artificial agents. Our approach involves training a model on human interactions with one agents subset to predict decisions when interacting with another. To enhance off-policy performance, we propose a simulation technique involving interactions across the entire agent space and simulated decision makers. Our learning strategy yields significant OPE gains, e.g., improving prediction accuracy in the top 15% challenging cases by 7.1%. Our code and the large dataset we collected and generated are submitted as supplementary material and publicly available in our GitHub repository: https://github.com/eilamshapira/HumanChoicePrediction

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in image generation tasks, including image editing and video creation, representing a good understanding of the physical world. On the other line, diffusion models have also shown promise in robotic control tasks by denoising actions, known as diffusion policy. Although the diffusion generative model and diffusion policy exhibit distinct capabilities--image prediction and robotic action, respectively--they technically follow a similar denoising process. In robotic tasks, the ability to predict future images and generate actions is highly correlated since they share the same underlying dynamics of the physical world. Building on this insight, we introduce PAD, a novel visual policy learning framework that unifies image Prediction and robot Action within a joint Denoising process. Specifically, PAD utilizes Diffusion Transformers (DiT) to seamlessly integrate images and robot states, enabling the simultaneous prediction of future images and robot actions. Additionally, PAD supports co-training on both robotic demonstrations and large-scale video datasets and can be easily extended to other robotic modalities, such as depth images. PAD outperforms previous methods, achieving a significant 26.3% relative improvement on the full Metaworld benchmark, by utilizing a single text-conditioned visual policy within a data-efficient imitation learning setting. Furthermore, PAD demonstrates superior generalization to unseen tasks in real-world robot manipulation settings with 28.0% success rate increase compared to the strongest baseline. Project page at https://sites.google.com/view/pad-paper

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach.

Despite remarkable progress in driving world models, their potential for autonomous systems remains largely untapped: the world models are mostly learned for world simulation and decoupled from trajectory planning. While recent efforts aim to unify world modeling and planning in a single framework, the synergistic facilitation mechanism of world modeling for planning still requires further exploration. In this work, we introduce a new driving paradigm named Policy World Model (PWM), which not only integrates world modeling and trajectory planning within a unified architecture, but is also able to benefit planning using the learned world knowledge through the proposed action-free future state forecasting scheme. Through collaborative state-action prediction, PWM can mimic the human-like anticipatory perception, yielding more reliable planning performance. To facilitate the efficiency of video forecasting, we further introduce a dynamically enhanced parallel token generation mechanism, equipped with a context-guided tokenizer and an adaptive dynamic focal loss. Despite utilizing only front camera input, our method matches or exceeds state-of-the-art approaches that rely on multi-view and multi-modal inputs. Code and model weights will be released at https://github.com/6550Zhao/Policy-World-Model.

In robotic visuomotor policy learning, diffusion-based models have achieved significant success in improving the accuracy of action trajectory generation compared to traditional autoregressive models. However, they suffer from inefficiency due to multiple denoising steps and limited flexibility from complex constraints. In this paper, we introduce Coarse-to-Fine AutoRegressive Policy (CARP), a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that redefines the autoregressive action generation process as a coarse-to-fine, next-scale approach. CARP decouples action generation into two stages: first, an action autoencoder learns multi-scale representations of the entire action sequence; then, a GPT-style transformer refines the sequence prediction through a coarse-to-fine autoregressive process. This straightforward and intuitive approach produces highly accurate and smooth actions, matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion-based policies while maintaining efficiency on par with autoregressive policies. We conduct extensive evaluations across diverse settings, including single-task and multi-task scenarios on state-based and image-based simulation benchmarks, as well as real-world tasks. CARP achieves competitive success rates, with up to a 10% improvement, and delivers 10x faster inference compared to state-of-the-art policies, establishing a high-performance, efficient, and flexible paradigm for action generation in robotic tasks.

Learning a generalizable bimanual manipulation policy is extremely challenging for embodied agents due to the large action space and the need for coordinated arm movements. Existing approaches rely on Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models to acquire bimanual policies. However, transferring knowledge from single-arm datasets or pre-trained VLA models often fails to generalize effectively, primarily due to the scarcity of bimanual data and the fundamental differences between single-arm and bimanual manipulation. In this paper, we propose a novel bimanual foundation policy by fine-tuning the leading text-to-video models to predict robot trajectories and training a lightweight diffusion policy for action generation. Given the lack of embodied knowledge in text-to-video models, we introduce a two-stage paradigm that fine-tunes independent text-to-flow and flow-to-video models derived from a pre-trained text-to-video model. Specifically, optical flow serves as an intermediate variable, providing a concise representation of subtle movements between images. The text-to-flow model predicts optical flow to concretize the intent of language instructions, and the flow-to-video model leverages this flow for fine-grained video prediction. Our method mitigates the ambiguity of language in single-stage text-to-video prediction and significantly reduces the robot-data requirement by avoiding direct use of low-level actions. In experiments, we collect high-quality manipulation data for real dual-arm robot, and the results of simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

World Action Models (WAMs) acquire behavioral priors by modeling future scene evolution, but predicting detailed futures in pixel or latent space incurs substantial cost. Recent evidence that co-training gains persist without test-time generation raises a question: what must a WAM learn to improve control? We introduce Copper-Policy, which learns a compact World representation with the policy rather than relying on a predefined target space. Through temporal joint-embedding prediction, it predicts future observation embeddings conditioned on task intention without reconstructing pixels. This prediction and action decoding shape the representation jointly, while the policy retains access to current-frame spatial detail for execution. Representation analyses show that the learned features better separate task-driven change from perturbations and provide complementary information for control. Compact prediction targets reduce training tokens per sample, enabling a 2B-parameter model trained in 9.67 hours on 8times RTX 5090 GPUs and 6times faster than Fast-WAM on matched A100 GPUs. Copper-Policy outperforms every compared method without embodied pretraining on RoboTwin and several embodied-pretrained VLAs on LIBERO-Plus (80.85%). On three challenging real-robot tasks, it performs comparably to π_{0.5} and attains a higher average score. Together, these results show that Copper-Policy combines strong control performance with efficient training.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p < 0.001 but exhibits regime dependence tied to the 2024-2025 rate-cutting cycle. The recession risk signal from KXRECSSNBER proves more stable out of sample, delivering an MSFE ratio of 0.979 with Clark-West p = 0.020. The inflation channel, measured by CPI repricing on KXCPI contracts, predicts altcoin volatility for Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Chainlink with t-statistics ranging from -2.1 to -3.4 and out-of-sample gains for Ethereum at MSFE = 0.959 with p = 0.010 and Solana at p = 0.048. Both the Bitcoin--Fed-dovish and Chainlink--CPI specifications survive Benjamini-Hochberg correction at q = 0.05. Orthogonalization and baseline comparisons against Fed Funds futures, Treasury yields, and the Deribit implied volatility index confirm that these signals carry information not embedded in conventional financial instruments. The sample covers ten Kalshi event series and six cryptocurrency assets over January 2023 to March 2026.

Speculative decoding accelerates inference by using a lightweight draft model to generate candidate tokens in parallel, and are then verified by the target model, enabling lossless acceleration. Recently, diffusion-based speculative decoding further improves parallelism by generating multiple tokens per forward pass via block-level diffusion, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. However, existing methods adopt a fixed inference block size and assume a uniform optimal decoding strategy across all inputs. In this paper, we show that this assumption is suboptimal, as the optimal block size varies across samples and plays a critical role in speculative decoding performance. Moreover, these values exhibit a clear local structure, concentrating around the training block size, which reduces the problem to a low-dimensional and structured decision space. Based on these insights, we propose BlockPilot, a sample-adaptive policy that predicts the optimal block size from the prefilling representation. Specifically, we formulate block size selection as a lightweight policy learning problem and propose an instance-adaptive decision mechanism that predicts the optimal block size based on the representation of the prefilling stage. The prediction is performed only once after prefilling, allowing for seamless integration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method is plug-and-play, introduces minimal overhead, and consistently improves efficiency, achieving an acceptance length of 5.92 and a 4.20times speedup on Qwen3-4B under temperature T=1.

Recent imitation learning policies, often framed as time series prediction tasks, directly map robotic observations-such as high-dimensional visual data and proprioception-into the action space. While time series prediction primarily relies on spatial domain modeling, the underutilization of frequency domain analysis in robotic manipulation trajectory prediction may lead to neglecting the inherent temporal information embedded within action sequences. To address this, we reframe imitation learning policies through the lens of the frequency domain and introduce the Wavelet Policy. This novel approach employs wavelet transforms (WT) for feature preprocessing and extracts multi-scale features from the frequency domain using the SE2MD (Single Encoder to Multiple Decoder) architecture. Furthermore, to enhance feature mapping in the frequency domain and increase model capacity, we introduce a Learnable Frequency-Domain Filter (LFDF) after each frequency decoder, improving adaptability under different visual conditions. Our results show that the Wavelet Policy outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) end-to-end methods by over 10% on four challenging robotic arm tasks, while maintaining a comparable parameter count. In long-range settings, its performance declines more slowly as task volume increases. The source code is available at https://github.com/lurenjia384/Wavelet_Policy.

World-Action Models (WAMs) improve robotic manipulation by conditioning action generation on predicted future observations, but future prediction adds further inference overhead to already expensive iterative action generation. Action chunking can amortize this cost over multiple actions, yet performance degrades over long execution horizons because later actions remain conditioned on stale observations. We introduce STAIRCASE POLICY, a streaming inference and training framework that turns a flow-matching VLA into a JEPA-style WAM and partitions a large action chunk into sub-chunks at staggered denoising stages. Near-term actions are executed as soon as they become available, while later actions continue to be refined. At each sub-chunk boundary, the future latent is re-predicted from the latest observation and used to update all unexecuted actions, enabling long-horizon execution without repeated full policy inference. The resulting future-prediction error can further serve as a signal for adaptive chunking. S-WAM achieves 97.7% on LIBERO and 87.9% on LIBERO-Plus, and improves performance across multiple policy backbones and real-robot tasks. It reaches 292.7 executed actions per second, 3.62times the throughput of conventional execution at comparable accuracy, while reducing time-to-first-action from 123.6 to 73.3 ms. With additional inference optimizations, throughput further increases to 642.9 actions per second.

On-policy distillation (OPD) consolidates expert capabilities into a single student by matching teacher and student final-layer distributions on student-generated rollouts. We investigate whether depthwise prediction transitions, the changes in predictions between layers, can provide additional task-relevant supervision. Our diagnostic study finds that stronger teacher--student agreement in intermediate transitions is associated with higher answer correctness within questions, with correct responses exhibiting lower mean transition KL across all measured intermediate layer pairs. These observations motivate On-Policy Transition Distillation (OPTD), which augments final-layer distribution matching by aligning teacher and student layer-to-layer log-probability increments on student-generated rollouts. Evaluations across three backbones and eight benchmarks spanning mathematics, coding, and instruction following show that OPTD achieves the best or tied-best overall performance in both dual- and three-domain distillation. In the three-domain setting, OPTD recovers approx 90% of the overall teacher--student capability gap, compared with approx 75% for OPD.

Background: Deep learning models can classify thyroid nodules on ultrasound, but reliable clinical decision support also requires calibrated probabilities, uncertainty estimation, and selective referral, particularly under dataset shift. Methods: We developed a calibrated deterministic five-member deep ensemble for ROI-based thyroid nodule classification and selective image-based triage. TN5000 was used for model development, five-fold cross-validation, member-wise vector-scaling calibration, and fold-specific threshold selection. TN3K served as an independent external dataset-shift evaluation. The framework used ConvNeXt-Tiny with squeeze-and-excitation attention, ensemble-mean malignancy probability, and mutual information (MI) as an ensemble-disagreement score. A three-tier policy assigned images to No-FNA suggestion, FNA recommendation, or radiologist review. Results: On pooled out-of-fold TN5000 predictions, the ensemble achieved AUC-ROC 0.9395, AP 0.9715, ECE 0.0088, and Brier score 0.0813. At 50% nominal MI retention, 7.2% of cases received a No-FNA suggestion, 39.9% an FNA recommendation, and 52.9% radiologist review, with 98.3% No-FNA NPV and 99.83% malignancy capture. On TN3K, AUC-ROC decreased to 0.7870, AP to 0.7254, ECE increased to 0.1899, and Brier score to 0.2281. The frozen TN5000 policy assigned 83.7% to review, 1.0% to No-FNA, and 15.3% to FNA recommendation. No malignant image entered the No-FNA pathway, but FNA-recommendation PPV fell to 76.6%. Conclusion: The framework showed strong internal discrimination and calibration, but limited external threshold transportability. Selective prediction may help identify images unsuitable for automated triage, but local recalibration, threshold validation, and prospective clinical evaluation are required before deployment.

Generalist robot policies carry broad manipulation priors from large-scale data, but specializing them to a new task remains the deployment bottleneck. This requires eliciting task-specific behavior from limited demonstrations without degrading their broad capabilities. We introduce Proxy Policy Steering (PPS), an inference-time adaptation method that resolves this challenge by training two lightweight proxy policies whose calibrated velocity-space difference steers the frozen base sampler. A reference proxy models the frozen base's behavior on target-task observations, and a task proxy, initialized from the reference, captures how this behavior changes under task supervision. Their difference forms a calibrated velocity-space residual that steers the frozen base sampler at every denoising step. We identify the conditions under which this residual isolates the change induced by task supervision, and validate them empirically. Because the base is never directly modified, its broad capabilities remain available at inference, including behaviors such as recovery from failure that the demonstrations themselves do not exercise. Adaptation requires only forward velocity predictions from the base, making PPS lightweight to train and applicable even without access to the base's parameters. On 8 real-world and 4 simulation manipulation tasks, PPS lifts the state-of-the-art pi 0.5 base policy by 53% absolute success rate on average, with zero-to-one gains on tasks the base never solves, while preserving the base's broad capabilities. PPS outperforms LoRA fine-tuning, from-scratch specialists, residual policies, and prior inference-time steering methods.

Recent approaches to reinforcement learning (RL) post-training for large language models increasingly remove the critic to reduce training instability and memory overhead. Even where a critic is trained, it is discarded once training ends, although it has learned to predict outcomes. We revisit this trend and show that a pretrained critic's ability to predict future outcomes can make it a valuable asset for efficient long-horizon reasoning. First, we find that instability in critic-based RL for long chain-of-thought reasoning is largely an optimization artifact: keeping policy updates small and low in variance restores stable convergence. Second, a well-pretrained critic estimates the posterior probability of eventual success from later trajectory states and unfinished prefixes. Its predictions provide outcome-derived, dense, per-prefix learning signals that, during policy optimization, require neither completed rollouts, step-level annotations, nor external reward labels. Building on this insight, we introduce Reward-Free Policy Optimization (RFPO), which repurposes a single calibrated, frozen critic as a rollout-level reward, a value baseline for generalized advantage estimation, and a success forecaster for unfinished prefixes. We further show that binarizing the debiased score stops the policy from exploiting the critic's length bias. Binarized, RFPO matches supervised PPO without a single label in the training loop, while cutting compute and memory overhead. This makes RFPO well suited to long-horizon reasoning tasks, where outcomes arrive late and generation dominates cost: because rollouts can be rewarded before they finish, training no longer has to pay for waiting on every trajectory to complete. Our findings challenge the prevailing critic-free paradigm and establish critic-based, reward-free optimization as a scalable and computationally efficient path for LLM post-training.

Reinforcement learning is essential for neural architecture search and hyperparameter optimization, but the conventional approaches impede widespread use due to prohibitive time and computational costs. Inspired by DeepSeek-V3 multi-token prediction architecture, we propose Sequential Policy Gradient modeling (SPG), a novel trajectory generation paradigm for lightweight online hyperparameter optimization. In contrast to conventional policy gradient methods, SPG extends the base model with temporary modules, enabling it to generate state-action (padded) trajectories in a single forward pass. Our experiments demonstrate that models gain performance when retrained with SPG on their original datasets and also outperform standard transfer fine-tuning. We evaluate on five datasets spanning computer vision (ImageNet, COCO), natural language processing (GLUE, SQuAD), and audio (SUPERB) to assess the industrial applicability of SPG. The proposed method demonstrates consistent improvements across widely adopted models, achieving performance gains of +0.2sim7%, with significantly low computational costs. Fully reproducible code and pre-trained models: https://huggingface.co/UniversalAlgorithmic/SPG.

Speech Recognition has seen a dramatic shift towards adopting Large Language Models (LLMs). This shift is partly driven by good scalability properties demonstrated by LLMs, ability to leverage large amounts of labelled, unlabelled speech and text data, streaming capabilities with auto-regressive framework and multi-tasking with instruction following characteristics of LLMs. However, simple next-token prediction objective, typically employed with LLMs, have certain limitations in performance and challenges with hallucinations. In this paper, we propose application of Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to enable reinforcement learning from human feedback for automatic speech recognition (ASR). We design simple rule based reward functions to guide the policy updates. We demonstrate significant improvements in word error rate (upto 18.4% relative), reduction in hallucinations, increased robustness on out-of-domain datasets and effectiveness in domain adaptation.

Existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches treat large language models (LLMs) as a single unified policy, overlooking their internal mechanisms. Understanding how policy evolves across layers and modules is therefore crucial for enabling more targeted optimization and raveling out complex reasoning mechanisms. In this paper, we decompose the language model policy by leveraging the intrinsic split of the Transformer residual stream and the equivalence between the composition of hidden states with the unembedding matrix and the resulting samplable policy. This decomposition reveals Internal Layer Policies, corresponding to contributions from individual layers, and Internal Modular Policies, which align with the self-attention and feed-forward network (FFN) components within each layer. By analyzing the entropy of internal policy, we find that: (a) Early layers keep high entropy for exploration, top layers converge to near-zero entropy for refinement, with convergence patterns varying across model series. (b) LLama's prediction space rapidly converges in the final layer, whereas Qwen-series models, especially Qwen3, exhibit a more human-like, progressively structured reasoning pattern. Motivated by these findings, we propose Bottom-up Policy Optimization (BuPO), a novel RL paradigm that directly optimizes the internal layer policy during early training. By aligning training objective at lower layer, BuPO reconstructs foundational reasoning capabilities and achieves superior performance. Extensive experiments on complex reasoning benchmarks demonstrates the effectiveness of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/Trae1ounG/BuPO.

World-Action Models (WAM) initialized from pre-trained video generation backbones have demonstrated remarkable potential for robot policy learning. However, existing approaches face two critical bottlenecks that hinder performance and deployment. First, jointly reasoning over future visual dynamics and corresponding actions incurs substantial inference overhead. Second, joint modeling often entangles visual and motion representations, making motion prediction accuracy heavily dependent on the quality of future video forecasts. To address these issues, we introduce GigaWorld-Policy, an action-centered WAM that learns 2D pixel-action dynamics while enabling efficient action decoding, with optional video generation. Specifically, we formulate policy training into two coupled components: the model predicts future action sequences conditioned on the current observation, and simultaneously generates future videos conditioned on the predicted actions and the same observation. The policy is supervised by both action prediction and video generation, providing richer learning signals and encouraging physically plausible actions through visual-dynamics constraints. With a causal design that prevents future-video tokens from influencing action tokens, explicit future-video generation is optional at inference time, allowing faster action prediction during deployment. To support this paradigm, we curate a diverse, large-scale robot dataset to pre-train an action-centered video generation model, which is then adapted as the backbone for robot policy learning. Experimental results on real-world robotic platforms show that GigaWorld-Policy runs 9x faster than the leading WAM baseline, Motus, while improving task success rates by 7%. Moreover, compared with pi-0.5, GigaWorld-Policy improves performance by 95% on RoboTwin 2.0.

Most existing vision-language-action (VLA) models for robotic manipulation lack progress awareness, typically relying on hand-crafted heuristics for task termination. This limitation is particularly severe in long-horizon tasks involving cascaded sub-goals. In this work, we investigate the estimation and integration of task progress, proposing a novel model named {\textbf \vla}. Our technical contributions are twofold: (1) robust progress estimation: We pre-train a progress estimator on large-scale, unsupervised video-text robotic datasets. This estimator achieves a low prediction residual (0.07 on a scale of [0, 1]) in simulation and demonstrates zero-shot generalization to unseen real-world samples, and (2) differentiable progress guidance: We introduce an inverse dynamics world model that maps predicted action tokens into future latent visual states. These latents are then processed by the progress estimator; by applying a maximal progress regularization, we establish a differentiable pipeline that provides progress-piloted guidance to refine action tokens. Extensive experiments on the CALVIN and LIBERO benchmarks, alongside real-world robot deployment, consistently demonstrate substantial improvements in success rates and generalization over strong baselines.

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as the standard paradigm for improving reasoning capability of large language models, while Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has been a widely adopted module in pretraining. Combining them is a natural approach, yet current RL practices detach MTP gradients because joint training degrades the performance. We revisit this failure from an optimization perspective. We show that the per-step effect of MTP on the RL objective can be decomposed into two terms: a first-order correlation and a second-order perturbation penalty. This decomposition unifies three MTP training regimes: Detach, Cross-Entropy loss, and Policy loss, and explains why each succeeds or fails. Further analysis of policy loss reveals that, although it aligns with intuition, performance still degrades: the correlation term decays while the quadratic penalty persists. Guided by the analysis, we propose Optimal Coefficient Calibration (OCC), an adaptive scheme that tracks the optimal coefficient online via a log-probability proxy at negligible cost. Across six competition-level mathematical reasoning benchmarks, OCC consistently matches or exceeds the detach baseline, delivering improved joint MTP-RL training performance.

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.

Video Temporal Grounding (TG) aims to temporally locate video segments matching a natural language description (a query) in a long video. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are effective at holistic semantic matching, they often struggle with fine-grained temporal localisation. Recently, Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) reformulates the inference process as a reinforcement learning task, enabling fine-grained grounding and achieving strong in-domain performance. However, GRPO relies on labelled data, making it unsuitable in unlabelled domains. Moreover, because videos are large and expensive to store and process, performing full-scale adaptation introduces prohibitive latency and computational overhead, making it impractical for real-time deployment. To overcome both problems, we introduce a Data-Efficient Unlabelled Cross-domain Temporal Grounding method, from which a model is first trained on a labelled source domain, then adapted to a target domain using only a small number of unlabelled videos from the target domain. This approach eliminates the need for target annotation and keeps both computational and storage overhead low enough to run in real time. Specifically, we introduce. Uncertainty-quantified Rollout Policy Adaptation (URPA) for cross-domain knowledge transfer in learning video temporal grounding without target labels. URPA generates multiple candidate predictions using GRPO rollouts, averages them to form a pseudo label, and estimates confidence from the variance across these rollouts. This confidence then weights the training rewards, guiding the model to focus on reliable supervision. Experiments on three datasets across six cross-domain settings show that URPA generalises well using only a few unlabelled target videos. Codes will be released once published.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

Fine-tuning diffusion policies with reinforcement learning (RL) presents significant challenges. The long denoising sequence for each action prediction impedes effective reward propagation. Moreover, standard RL methods require millions of real-world interactions, posing a major bottleneck for practical fine-tuning. Although prior work frames the denoising process in diffusion policies as a Markov Decision Process to enable RL-based updates, its strong dependence on environment interaction remains highly inefficient. To bridge this gap, we introduce DiWA, a novel framework that leverages a world model for fine-tuning diffusion-based robotic skills entirely offline with reinforcement learning. Unlike model-free approaches that require millions of environment interactions to fine-tune a repertoire of robot skills, DiWA achieves effective adaptation using a world model trained once on a few hundred thousand offline play interactions. This results in dramatically improved sample efficiency, making the approach significantly more practical and safer for real-world robot learning. On the challenging CALVIN benchmark, DiWA improves performance across eight tasks using only offline adaptation, while requiring orders of magnitude fewer physical interactions than model-free baselines. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of fine-tuning diffusion policies for real-world robotic skills using an offline world model. We make the code publicly available at https://diwa.cs.uni-freiburg.de.

Can we turn a video prediction model into a robot policy? Videos, including those of humans or teleoperated robots, capture rich physical interactions. However, most of them lack labeled actions, which limits their use in robot learning. We present Video Prediction for Robot Actions (ViPRA), a simple pretraining-finetuning framework that learns continuous robot control from these actionless videos. Instead of directly predicting actions, we train a video-language model to predict both future visual observations and motion-centric latent actions, which serve as intermediate representations of scene dynamics. We train these latent actions using perceptual losses and optical flow consistency to ensure they reflect physically grounded behavior. For downstream control, we introduce a chunked flow matching decoder that maps latent actions to robot-specific continuous action sequences, using only 100 to 200 teleoperated demonstrations. This approach avoids expensive action annotation, supports generalization across embodiments, and enables smooth, high-frequency continuous control upto 22 Hz via chunked action decoding. Unlike prior latent action works that treat pretraining as autoregressive policy learning, explicitly models both what changes and how. Our method outperforms strong baselines, with a 16% gain on the SIMPLER benchmark and a 13% improvement across real world manipulation tasks. We will release models and code at https://vipra-project.github.io

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and safety-critical decision-making tasks demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly.

World Action Models (WAMs) couple action generation with prediction of future states. Their effectiveness depends on whether future dynamics are modeled in a space that is both aligned with action generation and sufficiently geometry-aware to capture where and how actions change the scene. Existing WAMs typically satisfy only part of this requirement, relying on either perceptually heavy observation-space targets or auxiliary latent spaces that are not jointly structured for action relevance and geometry. We propose SG-WAM, a self-guided framework that learns geometry-aware action-conditioned dynamics directly in the policy-derived representation space. SG-WAM introduces learnable dynamics tokens and a Self-Guided World Predictor that forecasts their future latent states conditioned on intervening robot actions. Prediction targets are generated by an exponential moving average copy of the same policy backbone, providing stable supervision within the representation family used by the action expert. Geometric supervision further structures the policy image-token representations, providing spatially grounded context for the dynamics tokens and yielding a future-alignment space that is both action-relevant and geometry-aware. Latent future prediction, geometric grounding, and flow-matching action generation are jointly optimized end-to-end in a unified framework. Built on a 0.9B model without large-scale embodied pretraining, SG-WAM achieves 98.5% average success on LIBERO and 73% on LIBERO-Plus, while outperforming strong baselines in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution real-world evaluations.

Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) generate text by iteratively unmasking tokens, but their standard decoder reduces each step to a binary action: a position is either committed to a single token or left fully masked, discarding rich predictive information rather than carrying it forward, and forcing premature, irrevocable commitments that lead to poor performance under a limited decoding budget. In this paper, we reinterpret mask prediction as a clean-state prediction (x-prediction) and show that it can be used to induce a continuous flow in the input embedding space. Building on this view, we propose a continuous decoding framework for MDLMs where tokens can accumulate partial progress at each diffusion step and remain revisable. To match the uneven contextual constraints across positions in language, we replace the globally synchronous schedule in image diffusion with a confidence-based asynchronous update in which the diffusion progress is token-wise accumulated. Additionally, we introduce a lightweight policy network and formulate its training as a reinforcement learning problem. Applied to pretrained LLaDA, our decoder retains 83--97% of full-budget accuracy using under 15% of the diffusion steps, largely outperforming discrete mask-prediction decoding at matched budgets.

Standard video generators do not natively compact historical context into reusable memory tokens. As generation continues, the growing history makes it increasingly difficult to retain information from earlier frames due to long-context degradation. Key-frame-based approaches address this challenge by retaining selected past frames, but can discard information needed for future generation. Rather than relying on frame selection alone, we study whether a frozen video generator can supply the supervision needed to learn a compact representation of the history. We propose Prediction-Aligned Context Compaction (PACC), which uses a learned compressor to aggregate information across past frames into compact memory tokens. We train the compressor through on-policy distillation, using the same frozen generator both as a student when conditioned on compressed memory and as a teacher when conditioned on the full history. The student generates continuations, while the teacher provides targets for the same noisy inputs at each denoising step. Only the compressor is updated to align the student's predictions with these targets. We evaluate PACC on MBench, which jointly measures memory-event coverage and consistency. PACC outperforms the strongest baseline by 6.63 points on Causal-rCM and 3.19 points on Causal Forcing. Evaluation on VBench-Long using MovieGen prompts further shows that PACC produces minute-long videos with generation quality competitive with baselines. Together, these results show that learning to compact historical context can improve long-video memory without modifying the underlying generator.

World-action models (WAMs) couple future visual-state prediction with action generation. By adapting video generators or image-editing models pretrained at scale, a prominent line of recent WAMs inherits both predictive knowledge and the models in which it was learned. We ask whether a predictive visual latent space induced by large-scale predictive pretraining can instead provide a sufficient foundation for effective WAM learning without inheriting a complete pretrained visual generative model. To answer this question, we introduce V-JEPA Policy, a simple framework that builds a WAM on the latent space of a frozen V-JEPA 2.1 encoder. An instruction-conditioned future-latent predictor and a flow-matching action expert are jointly learned from scratch in a single downstream stage, with the predictor's future-informed context key--value states conditioning action generation. With 0.9B total parameters, of which 0.6B are trainable, V-JEPA Policy achieves competitive performance with representative WAM and vision-language-action baselines across LIBERO, LIBERO-Plus, and RoboCasa-GR1. Comparing visual foundations under the same downstream framework and training budget identifies V-JEPA latents as more effective than the discriminative, reconstructive, and video-understanding-oriented alternatives, particularly under distribution shifts. Beyond task-specific learning, pretraining the predictor on DROID video--instruction pairs without action labels and adapting it into a WAM yields substantial gains in downstream control and out-of-distribution generalization. Together, these findings establish predictive visual latents as a foundation for effective WAM learning from task-specific demonstrations and for transferring future-modeling knowledge acquired from broader in-the-wild videos. Our code is available at https://github.com/breez3young/VJEPA-Policy.

Privileged on-policy distillation improves multimodal reasoning by allowing a teacher to evaluate student trajectories using rich, training-only visual evidence. Both models score these trajectories while conditioning on the same student-generated prefix. When a student misinterprets an image early in a response, this accumulating erroneous rationale eventually pulls the teacher away from its visual evidence. The teacher and student converge on the same hallucination, causing standard cross-model supervision to collapse precisely where correction is most needed. We find that the teacher's visual corrective preference is not lost under this misleading agreement. Comparing the predictions of the identical teacher given the real image and a visual null reveals that the privileged evidence still pushes the model toward the correct interpretation. We introduce OPD-Aha, which reconstructs the distillation target directly from this isolated visual preference rather than relying on the fragile teacher-student discrepancy. This reconstructed target aggressively suppresses continuations that contradict the image. Trained with this objective, students learn to naturally interrupt their own flawed reasoning with reflection tokens such as wait and actually. After reflection, subsequent generation relies less on the accumulated erroneous text and more on the visual evidence. Correcting these trajectories mid-generation fundamentally alters the reasoning process, yielding broad and consistent improvements across diverse fine-grained perception and complex multimodal reasoning benchmarks. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/Echochef/OPD-Aha.

Few-step distillation reduces the sampling cost of diffusion and flow models, but existing approaches often require auxiliary score models or specialized architectures. We show that simple on-policy velocity regression already provides a strong foundation for 4-NFE generation. To represent teacher velocity variation within each coarse transition, we introduce Pivot, a training-only residual proxy that separates local corrections from the student's interval-mean prediction. We further repel the student from weaker teacher predictions, providing a lightweight mechanism for avoiding undesirable modes. The resulting framework, Simplified Matching Distillation (SMD), remains entirely regression-based, requires neither online score estimation nor adversarial training, and leaves the deployed generator unchanged. We evaluate SMD on image generation and editing, 3D generation, video synthesis, and joint audio--video generation, scaling to 33 billion parameters. At 4-NFE, SMD outperforms strong few-step baselines and surpasses multi-step teachers on several benchmarks. It also supports cross-model, multi-teacher, and causal-video distillation.

Masked diffusion language models generate tokens in parallel, but their efficiency depends on which predictions are committed. Learned unmasking policies improve the speed--accuracy trade-off, yet differ in supervision, inputs, and capacity, obscuring which choices matter. We view supervised policies as distilling a decoding procedure through a teacher and examine independently what the teacher labels as committable, on which states the policy imitates it, what the policy observes, and how much the number of function evaluations (NFE) must decrease to offset policy overhead. We find that labeling predictions matching the final output is overly permissive at low NFE, and hidden states are weak alone but can complement confidence. About a 10% NFE reduction suffices to offset policy overhead for policies up to 7.5M parameters across tested settings. We therefore train a policy on trajectory-contraction targets, which accept only commitments staying on a reference trajectory, using confidence and hidden states. On LLaDA-8B-Instruct, the resulting 856K-parameter policy achieves the best accuracy--NFE frontier and highest throughput on GSM8K, is competitive at moderate targets on MATH-500 and HumanEval, and largely transfers to Dream-7B-Instruct.

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

Diffusion-based text-to-speech (TTS) systems have made remarkable progress in zero-shot speech synthesis, yet optimizing all components for perceptual metrics remains challenging. Prior work with DMOSpeech demonstrated direct metric optimization for speech generation components, but duration prediction remained unoptimized. This paper presents DMOSpeech 2, which extends metric optimization to the duration predictor through a reinforcement learning approach. The proposed system implements a novel duration policy framework using group relative preference optimization (GRPO) with speaker similarity and word error rate as reward signals. By optimizing this previously unoptimized component, DMOSpeech 2 creates a more complete metric-optimized synthesis pipeline. Additionally, this paper introduces teacher-guided sampling, a hybrid approach leveraging a teacher model for initial denoising steps before transitioning to the student model, significantly improving output diversity while maintaining efficiency. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate superior performance across all metrics compared to previous systems, while reducing sampling steps by half without quality degradation. These advances represent a significant step toward speech synthesis systems with metric optimization across multiple components. The audio samples, code and pre-trained models are available at https://dmospeech2.github.io/.

Vision-centric hierarchical embodied models have demonstrated strong potential for long-horizon robotic control. However, existing methods lack spatial awareness capabilities, limiting their effectiveness in bridging visual plans to actionable control in complex environments. To address this problem, we propose Spatial Policy (SP), a unified spatial-aware visuomotor robotic manipulation framework via explicit spatial modeling and reasoning. Specifically, we first design a spatial-conditioned embodied video generation module to model spatially guided predictions through a spatial plan table. Then, we propose a spatial-based action prediction module to infer executable actions with coordination. Finally, we propose a spatial reasoning feedback policy to refine the spatial plan table via dual-stage replanning. Extensive experiments show that SP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 33.0% average improvement over the best baseline. With an 86.7% average success rate across 11 diverse tasks, SP substantially enhances the practicality of embodied models for robotic control applications. Code and checkpoints are maintained at https://plantpotatoonmoon.github.io/SpatialPolicy/.

Imitation learning (IL) with generative models, such as diffusion and flow matching, has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks. However, distribution shifts from unseen environments or compounding action errors can still cause unpredictable and unsafe behavior, leading to task failure. Early failure prediction during runtime is therefore essential for deploying robots in human-centered and safety-critical environments. We propose FIPER, a general framework for Failure Prediction at Runtime for generative IL policies that does not require failure data. FIPER identifies two key indicators of impending failure: (i) out-of-distribution (OOD) observations detected via random network distillation in the policy's embedding space, and (ii) high uncertainty in generated actions measured by a novel action-chunk entropy score. Both failure prediction scores are calibrated using a small set of successful rollouts via conformal prediction. A failure alarm is triggered when both indicators, aggregated over short time windows, exceed their thresholds. We evaluate FIPER across five simulation and real-world environments involving diverse failure modes. Our results demonstrate that FIPER better distinguishes actual failures from benign OOD situations and predicts failures more accurately and earlier than existing methods. We thus consider this work an important step towards more interpretable and safer generative robot policies. Code, data and videos are available at https://tum-lsy.github.io/fiper_website.

Recently, world-action models (WAM) have emerged to bridge vision-language-action (VLA) models and world models, unifying their reasoning and instruction-following capabilities and spatio-temporal world modeling. However, existing WAM approaches often focus on modeling 2D appearance or latent representations, with limited geometric grounding-an essential element for embodied systems operating in the physical world. We present DriveDreamer-Policy, a unified driving world-action model that integrates depth generation, future video generation, and motion planning within a single modular architecture. The model employs a large language model to process language instructions, multi-view images, and actions, followed by three lightweight generators that produce depth, future video, and actions. By learning a geometry-aware world representation and using it to guide both future prediction and planning within a unified framework, the proposed model produces more coherent imagined futures and more informed driving actions, while maintaining modularity and controllable latency. Experiments on the Navsim v1 and v2 benchmarks demonstrate that DriveDreamer-Policy achieves strong performance on both closed-loop planning and world generation tasks. In particular, our model reaches 89.2 PDMS on Navsim v1 and 88.7 EPDMS on Navsim v2, outperforming existing world-model-based approaches while producing higher-quality future video and depth predictions. Ablation studies further show that explicit depth learning provides complementary benefits to video imagination and improves planning robustness.

Learning domain adaptive policies that can generalize to unseen transition dynamics, remains a fundamental challenge in learning-based control. Substantial progress has been made through domain representation learning to capture domain-specific information, thus enabling domain-aware decision making. We analyze the process of learning domain representations through dynamical prediction and find that selecting contexts adjacent to the current step causes the learned representations to entangle static domain information with varying dynamical properties. Such mixture can confuse the conditioned policy, thereby constraining zero-shot adaptation. To tackle the challenge, we propose DADP (Domain Adaptive Diffusion Policy), which achieves robust adaptation through unsupervised disentanglement and domain-aware diffusion injection. First, we introduce Lagged Context Dynamical Prediction, a strategy that conditions future state estimation on a historical offset context; by increasing this temporal gap, we unsupervisedly disentangle static domain representations by filtering out transient properties. Second, we integrate the learned domain representations directly into the generative process by biasing the prior distribution and reformulating the diffusion target. Extensive experiments on challenging benchmarks across locomotion and manipulation demonstrate the superior performance, and the generalizability of DADP over prior methods. More visualization results are available on the https://outsider86.github.io/DomainAdaptiveDiffusionPolicy/.

Recent vision-language-action (VLA) models and world action models (WAMs) advance robotic manipulation by enriching intermediate representations with auxiliary spatial features or future visual-state prediction. However, these representations largely remain within the observation space and do not share the rigid-body geometry of the action space, forcing the action decoder to implicitly recover this geometry. We propose OASIS, a visuomotor policy that aligns the intermediate representation with the action space via SE(3) end-effector trajectory prediction. OASIS couples a 3D-aware feature encoder that fuses vision-language and metric-depth features with an SE(3) trajectory predictor that produces a camera-frame end-effector trajectory. Conditioned on the predictor's pose-supervised hidden states, the action decoder generates action chunks consistent with rigid-body motion. Across simulation and real-world experiments, OASIS outperforms VLA and WAM baselines in success rate and out-of-distribution generalization. Our project page is available at https://npuhandsome.github.io/OASIS_web.

Scaling policy learning requires broad experience and reliable supervision. Robot demonstrations provide high-quality trajectory supervision but are costly to collect. Egocentric videos broaden task and environment coverage, yet motion reconstruction and retargeting introduce noisy action labels. To address this challenge, we introduce EgoForesight, a vision-language-action framework that learns jointly from both sources by reducing the influence of unreliable action labels and exploiting demonstrated outcomes as complementary supervision. A joint vision-action flow couples future visual representation prediction with action generation, unifying reliability-aware action learning with outcome-informed representation transfer. Specifically, reliability-conditioned corruption allocates action supervision across noise levels according to source reliability, while reliability-weighted regression regulates each source's contribution. Complementing this treatment of noisy labels, privileged-future representation distillation draws supervision from demonstrated outcomes. An exponential-moving-average teacher observes the current scene and clean future to encode action-relevant structure from the resulting scene change. Its deeper representations supervise an earlier student layer receiving a corrupted future, providing outcome-informed structure beyond noisy action annotations. Together, these mechanisms support effective scaling with noisy egocentric actions. Over the tested range, EgoForesight exhibits steeper scaling slopes than the baseline, reducing real-world open-loop action MSE by 20.5% and improving RoboCasa few-shot success by 8.1 percentage points at 30,000 hours of pretraining data. After post-training, it also achieves strong absolute performance in both simulated and real-world dexterous manipulation.

Explaining stock predictions is generally a difficult task for traditional non-generative deep learning models, where explanations are limited to visualizing the attention weights on important texts. Today, Large Language Models (LLMs) present a solution to this problem, given their known capabilities to generate human-readable explanations for their decision-making process. However, the task of stock prediction remains challenging for LLMs, as it requires the ability to weigh the varying impacts of chaotic social texts on stock prices. The problem gets progressively harder with the introduction of the explanation component, which requires LLMs to explain verbally why certain factors are more important than the others. On the other hand, to fine-tune LLMs for such a task, one would need expert-annotated samples of explanation for every stock movement in the training set, which is expensive and impractical to scale. To tackle these issues, we propose our Summarize-Explain-Predict (SEP) framework, which utilizes a self-reflective agent and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to let a LLM teach itself how to generate explainable stock predictions in a fully autonomous manner. The reflective agent learns how to explain past stock movements through self-reasoning, while the PPO trainer trains the model to generate the most likely explanations from input texts. The training samples for the PPO trainer are also the responses generated during the reflective process, which eliminates the need for human annotators. Using our SEP framework, we fine-tune a LLM that can outperform both traditional deep-learning and LLM methods in prediction accuracy and Matthews correlation coefficient for the stock classification task. To justify the generalization capability of our framework, we further test it on the portfolio construction task, and demonstrate its effectiveness through various portfolio metrics.

Audio-language models (ALMs) can exploit textual shortcuts to answer questions while overlooking acoustic evidence, weakening audio understanding. On-policy distillation (OPD) trains compact ALMs by supervising student-generated responses with teacher predictions, but does not explicitly distinguish acoustic support from linguistic predictability. We propose Reward-Tilted On-Policy Distillation (RT-OPD) to strengthen acoustic grounding. Given the same question and student-generated text, a frozen teacher predicts the next token with and without audio inputs. Their log-probability contrast defines a reward that reshapes the teacher distribution for reverse-KL distillation, emphasizing the additional evidence provided by audio. Across two compact students and three benchmarks, RT-OPD consistently outperforms Vanilla OPD. Experiments with silenced and replacement audio further suggest that RT-OPD strengthens the student's reliance on acoustic evidence. Our 3B model achieves 72.72% accuracy on MMAU, the highest among the compared 3B models and competitive with several 7B and 8B models. Code and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/KaiyangLi1992/RT-OPD.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student on the responses it generates. Existing LLM multi-teacher OPD transfers what specialists predict through their output distributions. We introduce Latent-MOPD, to our knowledge the first representation-level multi-teacher OPD method for LLMs. It integrates existing specialists through both their predictions and the hidden states used to compute them, without additional teacher training. To coordinate representation supervision from multiple specialists, we select late-layer targets according to the teacher-student relationship, bridge unequal hidden widths with a shared projection, and group updates by domain. Each teacher's supervision gradually shifts from hidden states to token predictions, with both channels using the same routed specialist. In our main same-family setting, Latent-MOPD outperforms the token-only, representation-only and uniform-averaging baselines on all nine benchmarks across math, code and logic. With the same parameter count as each teacher, the student also surpasses the per-benchmark best teacher on a majority of these benchmarks. With larger, separately developed cross-family teachers, Latent-MOPD outperforms both single-channel baselines on all benchmarks. A same-family all-layer representation-only control remains stable with domain-pure updates but collapses when teacher domains are interleaved within an update. Our results show that a single student can integrate capabilities from several specialists through both their output distributions and internal representations.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

We introduce Language Feedback Models (LFMs) that identify desirable behaviour - actions that help achieve tasks specified in the instruction - for imitation learning in instruction following. To train LFMs, we obtain feedback from Large Language Models (LLMs) on visual trajectories verbalized to language descriptions. First, by using LFMs to identify desirable behaviour to imitate, we improve in task-completion rate over strong behavioural cloning baselines on three distinct language grounding environments (Touchdown, ScienceWorld, and ALFWorld). Second, LFMs outperform using LLMs as experts to directly predict actions, when controlling for the number of LLM output tokens. Third, LFMs generalize to unseen environments, improving task-completion rate by 3.5-12.0% through one round of adaptation. Finally, LFM can be modified to provide human-interpretable feedback without performance loss, allowing human verification of desirable behaviour for imitation learning.

Learning efficient representations for decision-making policies is a challenge in imitation learning (IL). Current IL methods require expert demonstrations, which are expensive to collect. Consequently, they often have underdeveloped world models. Self-supervised learning (SSL) offers an alternative by allowing models to learn from diverse, unlabeled data, including failures. However, SSL methods often operate in raw input space, making them inefficient. In this work, we propose ACT-JEPA, a novel architecture that integrates IL and SSL to enhance policy representations. We train a policy to predict (1) action sequences and (2) abstract observation sequences. The first objective uses action chunking to improve action prediction and reduce compounding errors. The second objective extends this idea of chunking by predicting abstract observation sequences. We utilize Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture to predict in abstract representation space, allowing the model to filter out irrelevant details, improve efficiency, and develop a robust world model. Our experiments show that ACT-JEPA improves the quality of representations by learning temporal environment dynamics. Additionally, the model's ability to predict abstract observation sequences results in representations that effectively generalize to action sequence prediction. ACT-JEPA performs on par with established baselines across a range of decision-making tasks.

Reasoning over long sequences of observations and actions is essential for many robotic tasks. Yet, learning effective long-context policies from demonstrations remains challenging. As context length increases, training becomes increasingly expensive due to rising memory demands, and policy performance often degrades as a result of spurious correlations. Recent methods typically sidestep these issues by truncating context length, discarding historical information that may be critical for subsequent decisions. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach that explicitly regularizes the retention of past information. We first revisit the copycat problem in imitation learning and identify an opposite challenge in recent diffusion policies: rather than over-relying on prior actions, they often fail to capture essential dependencies between past and future actions. To address this, we introduce Past-Token Prediction (PTP), an auxiliary task in which the policy learns to predict past action tokens alongside future ones. This regularization significantly improves temporal modeling in the policy head, with minimal reliance on visual representations. Building on this observation, we further introduce a multistage training strategy: pre-train the visual encoder with short contexts, and fine-tune the policy head using cached long-context embeddings. This strategy preserves the benefits of PTP while greatly reducing memory and computational overhead. Finally, we extend PTP into a self-verification mechanism at test time, enabling the policy to score and select candidates consistent with past actions during inference. Experiments across four real-world and six simulated tasks demonstrate that our proposed method improves the performance of long-context diffusion policies by 3x and accelerates policy training by more than 10x.

The widespread reliance on open-source software dramatically increases the risk of vulnerability exploitation, underscoring the need for effective and scalable vulnerability detection (VD). Existing VD techniques, whether traditional machine learning-based or LLM-based approaches like prompt engineering, supervised fine-tuning, or off-policy preference optimization, remain fundamentally limited in their ability to perform context-aware analysis: They depend on fixed inputs or static preference datasets, cannot adaptively explore repository-level dependencies, and are constrained by function-level benchmarks that overlook critical vulnerability context. This paper introduces Vulnerability-Adaptive Policy Optimization (VULPO), an on-policy LLM reinforcement learning framework for context-aware VD. To support training and evaluation, we first construct ContextVul, a new dataset that augments high-quality function-level samples with lightweight method to extract repository-level context information. We then design multi-dimensional reward structuring that jointly captures prediction correctness, vulnerability localization accuracy, and the semantic relevance of vulnerability analysis, thereby guiding the model toward comprehensive contextual reasoning. To address the asymmetric difficulty of different vulnerability cases and mitigate reward hacking, VULPO incorporates label-level and sample-level difficulty-adaptive reward scaling, encouraging the model to explore challenging cases while maintaining balanced reward distribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our VULPO framework in context-aware VD: Our VULPO-4B substantially outperforms existing VD baselines based on prompt engineering and off-policy optimization, improving F1 by 85% over Qwen3-4B and achieving performance comparable to a 150x larger-scale model, DeepSeek-R1-0528.

Current robotic planning methods often rely on predicting multi-frame images with full pixel details. While this fine-grained approach can serve as a generic world model, it introduces two significant challenges for downstream policy learning: substantial computational costs that hinder real-time deployment, and accumulated inaccuracies that can mislead action extraction. Planning with coarse-grained subgoals partially alleviates efficiency issues. However, their forward planning schemes can still result in off-task predictions due to accumulation errors, leading to misalignment with long-term goals. This raises a critical question: Can robotic planning be both efficient and accurate enough for real-time control in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks? To address this, we propose a Latent Space Backward Planning scheme (LBP), which begins by grounding the task into final latent goals, followed by recursively predicting intermediate subgoals closer to the current state. The grounded final goal enables backward subgoal planning to always remain aware of task completion, facilitating on-task prediction along the entire planning horizon. The subgoal-conditioned policy incorporates a learnable token to summarize the subgoal sequences and determines how each subgoal guides action extraction. Through extensive simulation and real-robot long-horizon experiments, we show that LBP outperforms existing fine-grained and forward planning methods, achieving SOTA performance. Project Page: https://lbp-authors.github.io

Climate-vulnerable road networks require a paradigm shift from reactive, fix-on-failure repairs to predictive, decision-ready maintenance. This paper introduces ST-ResGAT, a novel Spatio-Temporal Residual Graph Attention Network that fuses residual graph-attention encoding with GRU temporal aggregation to forecast pavement deterioration. Engineered for resource-constrained deployment, the framework translates continuous Pavement Condition Index (PCI) forecasts directly into the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)-compliant maintenance priorities. Using a real-world inspection dataset of 750 segments in Sylhet, Bangladesh (2021-2024), ST-ResGAT significantly outperforms traditional non-spatial machine learning baselines, achieving exceptional predictive fidelity (R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 2.72). Crucially, ablation testing confirmed the mathematical necessity of modeling topological neighbor effects, proving that structural decay acts as a spatial contagion. Uniquely, we integrate GNNExplainer to unbox the model, demonstrating that its learned priorities align perfectly with established physical engineering theory. Furthermore, we quantify classification safety: achieving 85.5% exact ASTM class agreement and 100% adjacent-class containment, ensuring bounded, engineer-safe predictions. To connect model outputs to policy, we generate localized longitudinal maintenance profiles, perform climate stress-testing, and derive Pareto sustainability frontiers. ST-ResGAT therefore offers a practical, explainable, and sustainable blueprint for intelligent infrastructure management in high-risk, low-resource geological settings.

MRI reconstruction is an inherently ill-posed inverse problem, since incomplete measurements admit many plausible solutions. This ambiguity becomes more severe under high acceleration, where pixel-domain continuous predictors tend to average over feasible reconstructions and suppress high-frequency anatomy. We address this limitation by moving reconstruction to discrete multi-scale latent space and posing it as autoregressive next-acceleration-scale prediction. Leveraging discrete priors proven effective in visual autoregressive modeling, our method restricts the solution to compact sequences of codebook tokens, enabling sharp reconstructions even from extremely sparse measurements. This discrete autoregressive formulation also aligns naturally with modern large language model post-training techniques. Building on this observation, we introduce on-policy privileged information distillation for visual autoregressive modeling, where a teacher is provided training only privileged context that is unavailable at inference, in our case fully sampled acquisitions, and supervises a student trained on its own rollouts, leading to consistent reconstruction gains. Through extensive experiments on the fastMRI benchmark, we show that our approach delivers improved reconstruction performance across diverse sampling patterns under extreme undersampling. Project website is https://yilmazkorkmaz1.github.io/discrete-mri-reconstruction-opd/{here}.

Long chain-of-thought reasoning has made autoregressive decoding the dominant inference cost of modern large language models. Existing methods target either the input side (latent compression) or the output side (speculative decoding and multi-token prediction, MTP), but the two lines of work have been pursued independently. Moreover, output-side methods must incur an expensive verifier pass to validate the unreliable draft tokens predicted by MTP. To address these issues, we propose Pair-In, Pair-Out (PIPO), which unifies both sides by viewing a latent compressor and an MTP head as mirror-image operations: the compressor folds two input tokens into one latent representation, while the MTP head unfolds one hidden state into one additional output token. To remove the verifier cost without sacrificing reliability, PIPO trains a lightweight confidence head that decides whether draft tokens should be accepted. We observe that On-Policy Distillation (OPD) naturally matches the rejection-sampling criterion of speculative decoding, so the confidence head can be trained alongside OPD with negligible extra cost. Experiments on AIME 2025, GPQA-Diamond, LiveCodeBench v6, and LongBench v2 with Qwen3.5-4B and 9B backbones show that PIPO improves pass@4 over regular decoding by up to +7.15 points, while delivering up to 2.64times first-token-latency and 2.07times per-token-latency speedups. Project Page: GitHub.com/RedAI-Infra/PIPO.

On-policy distillation (OPD) adapts diffusion models by querying a teacher along trajectories generated by the current student, but how it should behave under classifier-free guidance (CFG), a default component of modern diffusion systems, remains poorly understood. Existing OPD methods naturally extend velocity matching to the CFG-composed prediction, directly matching teacher and student guided velocities. We show that this objective is under-identified at the branch level: positive- and negative-branch errors can compensate in the guided prediction. Through two contrasting cases, we find that naive matching remains effective under shared negative conditioning, where both branch errors decrease jointly. When the model's native CFG schema retains privileged information in the teacher's negative branch that is unavailable to the student, however, this joint reduction breaks down and the composed objective induces antagonistic branch-error dynamics, reducing the positive-branch error while increasing the negative-branch error. We term this failure mode Negative Branch Asymmetry (NBA). To address NBA, we introduce Positive--Direction Matching (PDM), a branch-aware OPD objective that separately constrains the positive prediction and the CFG conditional direction. We apply PDM to dense-to-sparse video control, where naive guided matching is highly sensitive to inference guidance scales, while branch-aware supervision enables more robust and effective knowledge transfer.

Agent harnesses specify the roles, instructions, tools, and communication structure used to solve a task, and the right harness depends on the query. Because the value of each design choice is observable only through execution, tailoring a harness to each query has required either executing alternatives at inference time or costly manual design. We introduce SHIFT, which moves execution out of the per-query search loop. A local LLM architect learns a policy over harness-building actions from search, and a value function that predicts, from measured executions, a utility balancing accuracy against execution cost. For each query, Monte Carlo tree search uses these predictions to construct a harness. Across 9,193 tasks in six benchmarks, from math to document and general-assistant tasks, with a Gemini 3.5 Flash executor, SHIFT attains the highest mean accuracy, about 80%, outperforming 17 baselines that span prompting, prompt optimization, and workflow search, and exceeding the strongest baseline by 7.2 percentage points. A cheaper mode of SHIFT also attains a higher mean accuracy than every baseline while using 32% fewer execution tokens than the strongest baseline. We further show that choosing structure, instructions, and tools jointly beats choosing only instructions or only tools by up to 9.1 percentage points, and that learned value selection identifies more accurate harnesses with lower execution cost from candidate pools.

Reinforcement learning for long-horizon agents relies on purely retrospective training signals: credit is assigned only after observing environmental consequences, leaving the agent's belief at action time invisible to the gradient. We introduce Prospective Hindsight (PH), a self-calibrating training principle that augments any retrospective base method with a signal derived from the gap between the agent's prospective prediction (before feedback) and the retrospective evaluation (after feedback). This per-rollout surprise identifies samples where the agent's self-model is most inaccurate and amplifies their gradient contribution through a stop-gradient surprise-weighted advantage. Since the prospective predictor shares parameters with the policy, the two co-evolve, progressively shifting focus to the agent's remaining blind spots. We connect this principle to a privileged-information gap and show that minimizing the surprise residual provides a descent pathway on the agent's miscalibration rate; calibration thus emerges as a byproduct of optimization rather than from an added objective. On single-turn verifiable tasks and a multi-turn personal-agent task (under GRPO, on-policy distillation, and their combination), PH improves both task performance and calibration, with consistent gains across model scales. Notably, the dominant miscalibration mode shifts structurally between regimes, overconfident failures in single-turn, underconfident successes in multi-turn, yet the same training principle addresses both successfully.

Predicting single-cell transcriptomic responses to genetic perturbations is central to functional genomics and virtual-cell modeling. Existing approaches, however, typically predict an entire expression profile as a whole, leaving the order in which individual gene responses are generated unmodeled. To address this problem, we introduce D^{2R^{2}} (Discrete Diffusion with Regulation Reinforcement), which reformulates perturbation prediction as regulation-guided gene-wise progressive generation. A Masked Discrete Diffusion Model represents expression as ordinal tokens and reconstructs a fully masked profile step by step, allowing generated gene responses to condition those that remain masked. A Regulatory Policy Module initializes the generation policy from a gene regulatory network inferred from control cells and adapts it to the perturbation and current partially generated state. Then, group-relative policy optimization refines only the ordering policy using final perturbation-effect agreement as reward. Across Norman19 and VCC-H1, D^{2}R^{2} achieves the best performance on all five metrics on Norman19 and remains competitive on H1. Controlled ablations holding the generator and generation budget fixed show that biological-prior ordering improves over random ordering and is more reliable than uncertainty-based heuristics, whereas reversing the biological-prior ordering degrades every metric. Biological analyses further show that the refined policy prioritizes regulatory genes early while promoting perturbation-specific transcription factors and responsive genes. These results establish gene generation order as an effective, controllable, and biologically interpretable dimension of single-cell perturbation prediction.

Building structured 3D scene layouts from a single image requires reconciling visual observations with physical and spatial constraints, a challenge that is difficult to address with direct prediction alone. In this work, we formulate monocular 3D layout estimation as a perceive-then-plan problem with vision-language models, where a Perceiver first grounds the 3D objects and then a Planner iteratively refines the scene hypothesis through actions that improve physical plausibility while preserving consistency with the input image. We propose Layout-as-Policy (LaP), which casts the planning stage as a policy learning problem: 3D layouts are represented as structured states, and refined via discrete actions such as translation, rotation, and rescaling. Starting from an observation-aligned initialization with the geometry-enhanced Perceiver, the LaP Planner is trained to produce action sequences that progressively resolve geometric inconsistencies and enforce realistic spatial relations. To enable effective learning, we combine supervised trajectory initialization with preference-based optimization, allowing the model to learn corrective behaviors without requiring explicit reward engineering. This formulation transforms layout estimation from a one-shot prediction task into an iterative refinement process, enabling better handling of global constraints and complex object interactions. Experiments demonstrate that our approach produces layouts that are more physically coherent and better aligned with visual observations, while naturally supporting downstream tasks such as scene editing and manipulation.

Robotic manipulation requires policies that are smooth and responsive to evolving observations. However, synchronous inference in the raw action space introduces several challenges, including intra-chunk jitter, inter-chunk discontinuities, and stop-and-go execution. These issues undermine a policy's smoothness and its responsiveness to environmental changes. We propose ABPolicy, an asynchronous flow-matching policy that operates in a B-spline control-point action space. First, the B-spline representation ensures intra-chunk smoothness. Second, we introduce bidirectional action prediction coupled with refitting optimization to enforce inter-chunk continuity. Finally, by leveraging asynchronous inference, ABPolicy delivers real-time, continuous updates. We evaluate ABPolicy across seven tasks encompassing both static settings and dynamic settings with moving objects. Empirical results indicate that ABPolicy reduces trajectory jerk, leading to smoother motion and improved performance. Project website: https://teee000.github.io/ABPolicy/.

Evaluating VLA policies on real robots is costly, time-consuming, and difficult to reproduce, making real-to-sim simulation essential for scalable evaluation. While 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) enables rapid real-to-sim scene generation, the reconstruction quality required for reliable policy evaluation remains unquantified. In particular, policies relying on wrist-mounted fisheye cameras (e.g., YUBI handheld gripper data) are heavily exposed to visual artifacts (holes, floaters) in wide-angle views, directly degrading task performance. To address this, we present YUBI-Real2Sim, a unified framework for 3DGS-based scene reconstruction and real-to-sim policy evaluation under dual fisheye wrist views. We develop an integrated pipeline combining 200-degree fisheye camera capture, 3DGS training, 3D foundation models for object modeling, and MuJoCo-based physical simulation, reproducing the observed real-world policy ordering in eight of nine scene-task comparisons. Using this framework, we construct a benchmark across two bimanual robot platforms, three scenes, three tasks, and dual pi0.5-based policies. This systematically measures real-to-sim rank agreement and evaluates policy sensitivity against counterfactual 3DGS artifacts (ceiling holes, floaters, warping) and capture disturbances. We further analyze whether novel-view quality scores can indicate policy-ranking reliability under a scene-held-out evaluation protocol. The results show task-dependent performance and limitations of quality-based reliability prediction, highlighting the need to assess reconstruction quality when using Real2Sim for policy evaluation. These results do not yet establish a generally reliable scene-acceptance rule. Project Page: https://yubi-real2sim.airoa.io.

Tabular prediction has long been dominated by gradient-boosted decision trees and specialized deep tabular models, while large language models (LLMs) remain difficult to make competitive despite their cross-task adaptability and transparent reasoning traces. We address this gap by incorporating tabular structural priors into LLM post-training. Specifically, we propose Permutation Relative Policy Optimization (PRPO), which operationalizes column-permutation invariance through label-preserving column permutations and two-level advantage estimation. This design converts sparse outcome rewards into denser and more stable optimization signals. Extensive experiments on 139 OpenML datasets show that our 8B model reaches a genuinely competitive regime against strong specialized tabular baselines. It achieves strong fully supervised performance, dominates zero-shot settings, and performs on par with 32-shot strong baselines. Moreover, it substantially outperforms much larger general-purpose and reasoning LLMs, including up to a 53.17% improvement over DeepSeek-R1 (685B). These results show that structural-prior RL post-training is an effective route for making LLMs competitive in tabular prediction.

Group-advantage-based reinforcement learning methods, such as GRPO and DAPO, have demonstrated strong performance across diverse domains, including mathematical reasoning and text-to-image generation. However, their reliance on sample-level rewards introduces a key limitation as uniform credit assignment across all tokens fails to capture fine-grained, token-level contributions. To address this issue, we propose Guidance Contrastive Policy Optimization (GCPO), a novel algorithm that enables per-token credit assignment by contrasting model predictions under positive and negative prompts. Rather than uniformly broadcasting sample-level advantages, GCPO assigns token-level advantages proportional to the difference between these contrastive predictions, allowing more precise and informative learning signals. Empirically, we find that GCPO emphasizes semantically relevant regions such as visual areas aligned with textual prompts in text-to-image generation, and critical keywords within reasoning traces for chain-of-thought tasks. Through extensive experiments, GCPO consistently outperforms GRPO and DAPO baselines on both text-to-image generation and chain-of-thought reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness as a general and scalable optimization strategy for discrete policy learning.

On-policy distillation (OPD) leverages dense teacher rewards to enhance reasoning models. However, scaling OPD to long-horizon tasks exposes a critical flaw: as the student's generated prefix inevitably diverges from the teacher's thought process, the teacher's dense reward loses local exploitability. Continuing to generate and evaluate tokens on these ``drifted'' trajectories not only degrades reward quality but also incurs massive computational waste. To address this, we introduce Prune-OPD, a framework that dynamically aligns training budgets with supervision quality. By continuously monitoring the local compatibility between student and teacher predictions (e.g., via top-k overlap), Prune-OPD detects prefix-drift events in real time. Upon detecting severe drift, it monotonically down-weights subsequent unreliable rewards and triggers dynamic rollout truncation. This allows the training process to halt futile generation and reallocate compute strictly to reliable teacher supervision. Across diverse teacher-student combinations, Prune-OPD consistently aligns computation with supervision reliability. When prefix drift makes dense teacher rewards unreliable, it reduces training time by 37.6\%--68.0\% while preserving, and often improving, performance on challenging benchmarks (AMC, AIME, HMMT). When student-teacher compatibility remains high, it automatically preserves long-context supervision by expanding the training window. These results suggest that Prune-OPD improves OPD not by blindly shortening rollouts, but by reallocating computation toward locally exploitable teacher rewards.

Reinforcement learning can align diffusion models with human preferences and task-specific objectives, but endpoint rewards do not specify how an intermediate denoising prediction should change. We introduce DiffusionOPSD as an on-policy self-distillation framework that converts image-level reward guidance into explicit targets for clean-output predictions at sampled queries. At each outer iteration, a frozen behavior policy generates trajectories and supplies query states and anchors. Reward gradients construct bounded positive and negative targets around each anchor. The trainable policy fits these targets as detached supervision through finite fitting before an exponential moving average update refreshes the behavior policy. This setup lets us measure target construction and finite realization separately. Controlled same-query experiments show that larger target-construction gains do not necessarily translate into larger realized gains after a single fitting update. Across SD 3.5-M and the step-distilled Z-Image-Turbo, our approach achieves the best final held-out scores in 19 of 20 reward-matched settings across two backbones and ten evaluators. It outperforms the strongest competing method by up to 44.0% and reduces training GPU-hours relative to DiffusionNFT by 40% on SD 3.5-M and 63% on Z-Image-Turbo. These results support on-policy self-distillation as an efficient and analyzable approach to diffusion post-training by converting image-level reward guidance into explicit and continually refreshed intermediate supervision, thereby opening a path toward more efficient and diagnosable alignment.

Recursive Super-Resolution (SR) extends fixed-scale SR to extreme magnification by repeatedly feeding predictions back into the same model, analogous to zooming an image repeatedly. However, ground truth availability at every scale, especially at depth, remains challenging as the required source resolution grows geometrically, leaving deeper predictions unsupervised. We present OracleZoom, an on-policy distillation-inspired, reference-constrained framework that trains on its trajectory while carrying the last ground-truth evidence beyond the supervision boundary. Direct and cross-scale supervision constrain verifiable content, while a no-reference quality objective guides unresolved fine-scale detail. A KL-constrained pretrained latent prior limits quality-driven drift, while EMA consistency stabilizes the supervision boundary. Across seven datasets, OracleZoom achieves the state-of-the-art SR quality across zooming scales, averaging 0.713 CLIPIQA, with larger gains on deeper scales, while significantly reducing hallucinations. Code, data, and models are available at https://dipta007.github.io/OracleZoom/ .

On-Policy Distillation (OPD) trains a student on its own generations using teacher feedback. With different tokenizers, comparing teacher and student predictions requires alignment at both sequence and vocabulary levels. In this paper, we examine whether expanding this alignment coverage improves learning. Across three heterogeneous teacher--student pairs on mathematical reasoning and code generation, strict 1:1 groups already cover most student-generated tokens despite substantial vocabulary mismatch. On responses sampled from the students before distillation, the shared vocabulary retains nearly all teacher and student probability mass at strictly aligned positions on average. Restricting reverse KL to a student-selected top-16 subset of the shared vocabulary at each strict position achieves accuracy comparable to full shared-vocabulary OPD, outperforming the evaluated cross-tokenizer baselines. Adding mean squared error supervision on span log-probabilities in mismatch groups gives complete supervision coverage, yet reduces accuracy. At checkpoints from training with only the strict loss, the span gradients show weak or negative directional agreement with the strict gradients and grow in magnitude relative to them. These diagnostics may help explain the accuracy drop from adding span supervision. Our findings motivate a shift from maximizing alignment coverage to prioritizing supervision reliability: compact supervision at strict positions can be more effective than broader coverage that introduces weakly aligned or conflicting training signals.

On-policy distillation (OPD) transfers knowledge between language models through teacher supervision on student-generated trajectories. With different tokenizers, a single teacher token may require multiple student tokens to generate, creating intermediate states where the event is entered but not yet completed. Existing cross-tokenizer methods align tokens or text spans to construct comparable prediction targets. We study a complementary problem after partial generation: once the student produces a prefix of a teacher token, multiple next tokens may complete the same remaining bytes, but the teacher only specifies the required completion rather than how probability should be divided among these valid continuations. We introduce Event-Set Completion Distillation (ESCD), which complements cross-tokenizer probability alignment with completion-set supervision. ESCD aggregates prefix-related teacher events and supervises the total probability of byte-compatible one-step student completions, avoiding tokenizer-dependent probability splits among individual tokens. The method reuses student trajectories and predictions, requiring neither additional rollouts nor changes to the student vocabulary. Experiments demonstrate consistent gains in mathematics, code, and scientific reasoning across model families and tokenizers, extending to large-scale MoE distillation from a 1T teacher to a 35B student. Local analyses show that retaining completion sets better matches the reference supervision, while one-step completion covers over 99% of observed compatible teacher mass after partial event entry in the studied tokenizer pairs. These findings support event entry and event completion as complementary supervision targets for cross-tokenizer knowledge transfer. Code will be released on GitHub.

Machine learning predicts outcomes well, but predictive accuracy does not ensure reliable counterfactual responses. We examine how to combine machine learning and theory for measurement and counterfactual analysis, using maritime CO2 emissions where physics provides a benchmark speed response. Matching hourly tracking data for dry bulk and container ships to annual fuel consumption reported under EU regulations, we compare engineering calculations, structural regressions, hybrid models, and machine learning. Out of sample, all estimated models predict within a few percent of reported totals, outperforming standard engineering calculations. Yet pure machine learning and unrestricted structural regression imply attenuated speed responses. Hybrids preserve the structural component's speed response by excluding speed-related inputs from the machine learning component. A cost-benefit analysis of speed reductions illustrates the policy stakes: an attenuated speed response can flip the sign of net benefits. Accurate aggregate predictions therefore cannot substitute for scrutiny of the restrictions determining counterfactual responses.

Residual context is key to unlocking the speed-quality Pareto frontier of diffusion language models (DLMs) by carrying forward predictive distributions across denoising steps. Yet turning this seemingly simple mechanism into an effective learning paradigm is far from simple: there is no clear recipe for how residual context should be learned. We introduce ORL, a framework for on-policy residual learning in DLMs. Algorithmically, we identify that residual learning is inherently on-policy. ORL learns from model-induced residual trajectories on the fly and introduces an entropy-contraction objective that sharpens predictions as the model revisits its own predictions. System-wise, exact residual supervision requires capturing, retaining, and reprocessing many trajectory-dependent states. ORL co-designs the algorithm with asynchronous residual capture and transport, specialized block-diffusion attention, and packed compute-balanced training, making it practical at scale. On a 4B DLM converted from Qwen3-4B, ORL improves tokens per forward (TPF) by up to 6.2x and, with our dlmrt engine, end-to-end throughput by approximately 6.9x at comparable or better quality. In single-request serving on one H100, this mode achieves a stronger speed-quality Pareto frontier than autoregressive models with EAGLE3 and DFlash speculative decoding under both strict and relaxed verification, running 1.74x faster than DFlash at matched accuracy. ORL also transfers to existing DLMs: on LLaDA-2.1-mini, 36 H100-hours and 4.2M self-generated tokens, about 10x less data than prior LLaDA recipes, yield up to 1.5x higher TPF and up to 3x higher throughput at comparable quality, and on DiffusionGemma, ORL raises TPF by 1.1-1.2x. With dlmrt and NVFP4 quantization, ORL models decode a single request at up to 5,046 tokens/s on one B200, 7,708 on eight B200s, and 2,788 on a consumer RTX 5090, with comparable quality.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student model on its own trajectories using dense token-level feedback from a stronger teacher model. Since each update is conditioned on the reasoning prefix already generated by the student, the prefix also shapes how effectively teacher feedback is converted into learning. We find that shared prefixes can lead to weak token-level updates, a phenomenon we call Prefix-Induced Supervision Attenuation (PISA). This attenuation arises in two common cases. (i) High student confidence can weaken corrective gradients even when the teacher disagrees. (ii) Tokens that rely on earlier reasoning can receive learning signals as weak as those for simple local continuations. To solve this problem, we propose Trajectory Dropout, a simple training-time intervention that exposes these weakened signals. The student first performs a standard full-context rollout to generate a complete trajectory. During training, we randomly drop a certain proportion of the student's reasoning trajectory, while the teacher continues to observe the complete trajectory for token-level supervision. This intervention strengthens corrections for overconfident predictions and introduces additional supervision at prefix-sensitive positions. Trajectory Dropout consistently improves average performance across teacher--student model pairs of different scales and six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, while also yielding gains on two out-of-domain benchmarks. It can also be flexibly integrated into existing OPD variants with negligible computational overhead, further improving their performance. These results demonstrate that Trajectory Dropout provides a simple mechanism for strengthening token-level supervision across model scales and OPD objectives.

Omni-modal large language models deployed in real-world environments encounter external noise that can interfere with their perception and understanding of multimodal inputs. We study their robustness in audio-visual understanding, focusing on question answering under environmental noise and competing speech. The challenge is to resist acoustic interference while preserving useful audio evidence. On-policy distillation provides dense teacher feedback on student-generated responses, but uniform token weighting does not explicitly prioritize positions affected by acoustic interference. We introduce OP-CAD (On-Policy Clean-Audio Distillation), a curriculum-based privileged self-distillation framework for robust audio-visual understanding. Training progresses from mild to severe environmental noise and competing speech, with selective token-level supervision at each stage. The student generates responses from corrupted audio-visual input, while a frozen teacher uses clean audio and the verified answer to supervise the same response prefixes. To allocate this supervision, OP-CAD compares teacher predictions under clean, corrupted, and visual-only contexts without revealing the answer. These matched comparisons measure sensitivity to audio removal and corruption; a bounded weighting rule emphasizes positions identified by either signal while retaining supervision throughout the response. OP-CAD outperforms the compared methods across all evaluated noise conditions. Paired analyses further show improved preservation of clean-correct answers under strong interference, with no observed aggregate clean-accuracy penalty. These results demonstrate the value of directing clean-teacher supervision toward acoustically sensitive predictions for robust audio-visual reasoning.

Mathematical reasoning, a core ability of human intelligence, presents unique challenges for machines in abstract thinking and logical reasoning. Recent large pre-trained language models such as GPT-3 have achieved remarkable progress on mathematical reasoning tasks written in text form, such as math word problems (MWP). However, it is unknown if the models can handle more complex problems that involve math reasoning over heterogeneous information, such as tabular data. To fill the gap, we present Tabular Math Word Problems (TabMWP), a new dataset containing 38,431 open-domain grade-level problems that require mathematical reasoning on both textual and tabular data. Each question in TabMWP is aligned with a tabular context, which is presented as an image, semi-structured text, and a structured table. There are two types of questions: free-text and multi-choice, and each problem is annotated with gold solutions to reveal the multi-step reasoning process. We evaluate different pre-trained models on TabMWP, including the GPT-3 model in a few-shot setting. As earlier studies suggest, since few-shot GPT-3 relies on the selection of in-context examples, its performance is unstable and can degrade to near chance. The unstable issue is more severe when handling complex problems like TabMWP. To mitigate this, we further propose a novel approach, PromptPG, which utilizes policy gradient to learn to select in-context examples from a small amount of training data and then constructs the corresponding prompt for the test example. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the best baseline by 5.31% on the accuracy metric and reduces the prediction variance significantly compared to random selection, which verifies its effectiveness in selecting in-context examples.

Imagining the future trajectory is the key for robots to make sound planning and successfully reach their goals. Therefore, text-conditioned video prediction (TVP) is an essential task to facilitate general robot policy learning. To tackle this task and empower robots with the ability to foresee the future, we propose a sample and computation-efficient model, named Seer, by inflating the pretrained text-to-image (T2I) stable diffusion models along the temporal axis. We enhance the U-Net and language conditioning model by incorporating computation-efficient spatial-temporal attention. Furthermore, we introduce a novel Frame Sequential Text Decomposer module that dissects a sentence's global instruction into temporally aligned sub-instructions, ensuring precise integration into each frame of generation. Our framework allows us to effectively leverage the extensive prior knowledge embedded in pretrained T2I models across the frames. With the adaptable-designed architecture, Seer makes it possible to generate high-fidelity, coherent, and instruction-aligned video frames by fine-tuning a few layers on a small amount of data. The experimental results on Something Something V2 (SSv2), Bridgedata and EpicKitchens-100 datasets demonstrate our superior video prediction performance with around 480-GPU hours versus CogVideo with over 12,480-GPU hours: achieving the 31% FVD improvement compared to the current SOTA model on SSv2 and 83.7% average preference in the human evaluation.

Human choice prediction in economic contexts is crucial for applications in marketing, finance, public policy, and more. This task, however, is often constrained by the difficulties in acquiring human choice data. With most experimental economics studies focusing on simple choice settings, the AI community has explored whether LLMs can substitute for humans in these predictions and examined more complex experimental economics settings. However, a key question remains: can LLMs generate training data for human choice prediction? We explore this in language-based persuasion games, a complex economic setting involving natural language in strategic interactions. Our experiments show that models trained on LLM-generated data can effectively predict human behavior in these games and even outperform models trained on actual human data.

The recent DeepSeek-R1 has showcased the emergence of reasoning capabilities in LLMs through reinforcement learning (RL) with rule-based rewards. Building on this idea, we are the first to explore how rule-based RL can enhance the reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) for graphic user interface (GUI) action prediction tasks. To this end, we curate a small yet high-quality dataset of 136 challenging tasks, encompassing five common action types on mobile devices. We also introduce a unified rule-based action reward, enabling model optimization via policy-based algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed data-efficient model, UI-R1-3B, achieves substantial improvements on both in-domain (ID) and out-of-domain (OOD) tasks. Specifically, on the ID benchmark AndroidControl, the action type accuracy improves by 15%, while grounding accuracy increases by 10.3%, compared with the base model (i.e. Qwen2.5-VL-3B). On the OOD GUI grounding benchmark ScreenSpot-Pro, our model surpasses the base model by 6.0% and achieves competitive performance with larger models (e.g., OS-Atlas-7B), which are trained via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on 76K data. These results underscore the potential of rule-based reinforcement learning to advance GUI understanding and control, paving the way for future research in this domain.

We study learning to learn for the multi-task structured bandit problem where the goal is to learn a near-optimal algorithm that minimizes cumulative regret. The tasks share a common structure and an algorithm should exploit the shared structure to minimize the cumulative regret for an unseen but related test task. We use a transformer as a decision-making algorithm to learn this shared structure from data collected by a demonstrator on a set of training task instances. Our objective is to devise a training procedure such that the transformer will learn to outperform the demonstrator's learning algorithm on unseen test task instances. Prior work on pretraining decision transformers either requires privileged information like access to optimal arms or cannot outperform the demonstrator. Going beyond these approaches, we introduce a pre-training approach that trains a transformer network to learn a near-optimal policy in-context. This approach leverages the shared structure across tasks, does not require access to optimal actions, and can outperform the demonstrator. We validate these claims over a wide variety of structured bandit problems to show that our proposed solution is general and can quickly identify expected rewards on unseen test tasks to support effective exploration.

Embodied manipulation requires accurate 3D understanding of objects and their spatial relations to plan and execute contact-rich actions. While large-scale 3D vision models provide strong priors, their computational cost incurs prohibitive latency for real-time control. We propose Real-time 3D-aware Policy (R3DP), which integrates powerful 3D priors into manipulation policies without sacrificing real-time performance. A core innovation of R3DP is the asynchronous fast-slow collaboration module, which seamlessly integrates large-scale 3D priors into the policy without compromising real-time performance. The system maintains real-time efficiency by querying the pre-trained slow system (VGGT) only on sparse key frames, while simultaneously employing a lightweight Temporal Feature Prediction Network (TFPNet) to predict features for all intermediate frames. By leveraging historical data to exploit temporal correlations, TFPNet explicitly improves task success rates through consistent feature estimation. Additionally, to enable more effective multi-view fusion, we introduce a Multi-View Feature Fuser (MVFF) that aggregates features across views by explicitly incorporating camera intrinsics and extrinsics. R3DP offers a plug-and-play solution for integrating large models into real-time inference systems. We evaluate R3DP against multiple baselines across different visual configurations. R3DP effectively harnesses large-scale 3D priors to achieve superior results, outperforming single-view and multi-view DP by 32.9% and 51.4% in average success rate, respectively. Furthermore, by decoupling heavy 3D reasoning from policy execution, R3DP achieves a 44.8% reduction in inference time compared to a naive DP+VGGT integration.

Robotic manipulation requires understanding both the 3D spatial structure of the environment and its temporal evolution, yet most existing policies overlook one or both. They typically rely on 2D visual observations and backbones pretrained on static image--text pairs, resulting in high data requirements and limited understanding of environment dynamics. To address this, we introduce MV-VDP, a multi-view video diffusion policy that jointly models the 3D spatio-temporal state of the environment. The core idea is to simultaneously predict multi-view heatmap videos and RGB videos, which 1) align the representation format of video pretraining with action finetuning, and 2) specify not only what actions the robot should take, but also how the environment is expected to evolve in response to those actions. Extensive experiments show that MV-VDP enables data-efficient, robust, generalizable, and interpretable manipulation. With only ten demonstration trajectories and without additional pretraining, MV-VDP successfully performs complex real-world tasks, demonstrates strong robustness across a range of model hyperparameters, generalizes to out-of-distribution settings, and predicts realistic future videos. Experiments on Meta-World and real-world robotic platforms demonstrate that MV-VDP consistently outperforms video-prediction--based, 3D-based, and vision--language--action models, establishing a new state of the art in data-efficient multi-task manipulation.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

Robotic manipulation is often specified through language instructions or task identifiers, yet cluttered environments with similar objects are better handled by spatially indicating what to move and where to place it. Addressing the vision-centric challenge of object and goal specification, we present, to the best of our knowledge, the first formalization of Spatially Prompted Visual Trajectory Prediction (SP-VTP). This novel setting utilizes initial spatial prompts (like bounding boxes or points) to define task objectives, tasking the model with forecasting future end-effector trajectories from egocentric streams. To study this problem, we collect and annotate EgoSPT, a dataset of egocentric spatially prompted manipulation trajectories with first-frame object and target grounding annotations and recovered 3D end-effector motion. SP-VTP is challenging because the task specification is static, while the scene configuration evolves over time. To solve this problem, we propose SPOT(Spatially Prompted Object-Target Policy), which combines a task encoder for first-frame visual and coordinate spatial prompts, an observation encoder for current visual and history context, and a trajectory generator for future end-effector motion. Experiments under strict scene-level splits show that SPOT improves cross-scene trajectory prediction over non-prompted or single-source prompted baselines. Together, EgoSPT and SPOT establish a new spatial prompting problem SP-VTP, as a simple and scalable task condition for egocentric manipulation.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models provide a unified paradigm for robotic manipulation, yet their real-world deployment is often bottlenecked by execution efficiency. While existing efforts predominantly focus on compute-centric efficiency to reduce per-step inference latency, the intrinsic policy efficiency of these models remains largely unexplored. Policy efficiency is fundamentally affected by two factors, namely the effective executable length of predicted action chunks and the total physical steps required to complete a task. These two factors jointly determine the total number of forward inference calls during execution. We observe that current VLA policies struggle with planning unreliability and action redundancy, suffering from severe prediction degradation at the tail of action chunks and tending to generate unnecessarily redundant physical steps. To address this, we propose PolicyTrim, a reinforcement learning-based post-training framework that extends the reliable action chunk length and reduces redundant physical steps. For reliable chunk extension, we employ a dynamic exploration strategy that explicitly rewards the successful completion of longer executable lengths, progressively pushing the trustworthy prediction horizon to its empirical limit. For step efficiency, we design a redundancy-aware reward that directly favors successful task completions with fewer steps while penalizing unreproducible shortcuts, effectively eliminating redundant physical actions. Extensive experiments across three benchmarks and three VLA models demonstrate that PolicyTrim improves action chunk utilization by 3times and reduces physical execution steps by 51.4\%. Ultimately, our framework delivers up to a 5.83times end-to-end deployment speedup without compromising task success rates.

Learning structured and control-relevant latent representations remains a key challenge for world models. Recent JEPA-based world models learn action-conditioned predictive latent dynamics from observation sequences. However, their forward-prediction objectives do not explicitly enforce reliable identifiability of robot-centric physical state from individual latents or state changes from latent pairs, which can limit downstream planning and policy performance. We propose PSG-JEPA, a physically grounded JEPA world model that shapes its latent space with two complementary grounding objectives beyond forward prediction: grounding individual latents in robot proprioceptive state, and grounding latent pairs in multi-horizon joint-angle changes. Both objectives are applied only during training, leaving the inference architecture and computational cost unchanged. To comprehensively evaluate PSG-JEPA, we conduct experiments at three levels: (1) latent identifiability via probing, (2) goal-conditioned planning on frozen latents, and (3) policy learning in simulation and on a real robot. Experiments demonstrate that our PSG-JEPA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art latent world-model baselines at all three levels.

On-policy distillation (OPD), which leverages a pre-trained, specialized teacher model to provide dense supervisory signals, has achieved significant success in Large Language Models (LLMs) and has recently been adapted to flow matching models. However, this paradigm suffers from two major issues: First, training a separate, task-specific teacher for every new objective incurs high computational costs. Second, the discrepancy between teacher and student distributions often leads to compounding errors along the generation trajectory. In this paper, we introduce Self-OPD, a teacher-free OPD framework for flow matching models that turns the student's own self-exploration into step-wise supervision. At each timestep, Self-OPD branches the deterministic next-state prediction into K stochastic SDE candidates, rolls them out with the ODE sampler, and compares their rewards against a deterministic self-reference baseline to obtain normalized advantages. The velocity field is optimized with an all-branch pull-push objective, where high-advantage branches attract the student and low-advantage branches repel it under direction-aware attenuation and SDE-variance normalization. For multi-objective alignment, Self-OPD fuses normalized scores at the reward level, avoiding direct gradient conflict. Experiments on single and mixed reward benchmarks show that Self-OPD outperforms prior RL and OPD methods without task-specific teachers.

Protein-complex structure prediction with AlphaFold 3 depends on MSA content, depth, and cross-chain pairing. Current pipelines apply uniform recipes, typically maximizing depth and pairing by species, yet even whether cross-chain pairing helps AF3 remains contested. We show that the value of both depth and pairing is strongly target-dependent, so no single recipe is optimal across interfaces. We introduce an autonomous agent that treats a frozen AF3 as a black-box experimental instrument. For each target, the agent formulates biological hypotheses, analyzes and reorganizes the MSA, and iteratively refines sequence selection and pairing using predictor label-free signals alone. On 1{,}015 protein--protein interfaces from three benchmarks released after AF3's training cutoff, the agent improves overall interface DockQ over AF3's default pipeline and fixed MSA recipes on every benchmark, while using on average 60\% fewer MSA sequences than the default. Gains are largest for inter-species heteromers, where species-based pairing is unreliable: mean DockQ increases from 0.465 to 0.612 on FoldBench and from 0.482 to 0.562 on HD439. The improvements arise from both sequence construction and pairing policy, including deliberate non-pairing.These results recast MSA design as a target-specific problem and show that an autonomous agent can adapt it at test time through biological reasoning and self-directed, confidence-guided experimentation.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown strong potential for general-purpose robotic manipulation, but their reliance on expert demonstrations limits their ability to learn from failures and perform self-corrections. Reinforcement learning (RL) addresses these through self-improving interactions with the physical environment, but suffers from high sample complexity on real robots. We introduce World-Model-based Policy Optimization (WMPO), a principled framework for on-policy VLA RL without interacting with the real environment. In contrast to widely used latent world models, WMPO focuses on pixel-based predictions that align the "imagined" trajectories with the VLA features pretrained with web-scale images. Crucially, WMPO enables the policy to perform on-policy GRPO that provides stronger performance than the often-used off-policy methods. Extensive experiments in both simulation and real-robot settings demonstrate that WMPO (i) substantially improves sample efficiency, (ii) achieves stronger overall performance, (iii) exhibits emergent behaviors such as self-correction, and (iv) demonstrates robust generalization and lifelong learning capabilities.

Accurate long horizon forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentration fields is essential for operational public health decisions. However, achieving reliable forecasts remains challenging in regions with complex terrain and strong atmospheric dynamics such as East Asia. While foundation models such as Aurora offer global generality, they often miss region-specific dynamics and rely on non-real-time inputs, limiting their practical utility for localized warning systems. To address this gap, we construct and release the real-world observations and high-resolution CMAQ-OBS dataset for East Asia, reducing regional error by 59.5% and enabling real-time 48-120 hour forecasts critical for public health alerts. However, standard point-wise objectives cannot reflect asymmetric operational costs, where false alarms deteriorate public trust while missed severe events endanger populations. This cost mismatch causes SFT models to over-predict and yield high False Alarm Rates. We introduce Group-Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with class-wise rewards and curriculum rollout to align predictions with operational priorities. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the reliability of the forecast. Compared to the SFT-only baseline, our model reduces the False Alarm Rate by 47.3% while achieving a competitive F1-score, proving its effectiveness for practical, real-world air quality forecasting systems on long lead time scenarios.

Multi-omics sequences contain complex biological patterns, yet deciphering their mechanisms for automated scientific discovery remains challenging. As large language models (LLMs) interpret these sequences, evaluating both predictions and scientific reasoning is critical. However, existing benchmarks for multi-omics sequence tasks rely on classification and regression metrics, neglecting whether models grasp the underlying biological evidence. We introduce OmicsBench, the first reasoning benchmark for multi-omics sequences, comprising 1,160 expert-validated questions across six tasks spanning DNA regulation, RNA processing, and protein function. OmicsBench requires traceable evidence chains, evaluated using instance-specific rubrics developed with domain experts. Evaluating 17 LLMs reveals an inverse relationship: while scientific LLMs outperform general-purpose LLMs in sequence classification accuracy, they fail to provide valid evidence to support their predictions. One plausible interpretation is shortcut learning: specialized models may rely on statistical patterns rather than the biological mechanisms needed for scientific discovery. Motivated by this finding, we introduce tool-augmented on-policy distillation (TA-OPD), a post-training method to align sequence prediction with evidence-grounded biological reasoning. Across five Qwen3.5 models spanning 0.8B to 27B parameters, TA-OPD consistently strengthens biological evidence grounding while improving predictive performance on most tasks. These gains persist across model scales, indicating that stronger sequence reasoning does not arise solely from increased model capacity, but can be improved through evidence-aware training. Together, OmicsBench and TA-OPD provide a framework for diagnosing reasoning failures in multi-omics LLMs and a path toward models whose predictions are better grounded in biologically meaningful evidence.

Embodied visual tracking requires a robot to identify a designated target from visual observations and control its own motion to follow that target through an environment. Following an isolated person is a comparatively simple demonstration of embodied visual tracking, but following the intended person among distractors remains challenging. Existing methods exhibit a substantial drop in success from single-target to distractor tracking, motivating a focus on the shared spaces that person-following robots must navigate. We present , a vision--language waypoint policy built around the hypothesis that visual and language representations should be aligned before tracking-specific motion is learned. The policy combines complementary frozen visual encoders, multiscale temporal context, a transformer backbone, and a lightweight head for robot-centric waypoint prediction. Its training progresses through vision--language alignment, multimodal reasoning mid-training, and tracking specialization on 19,532 oracle episodes. Compared with 41.54\% distractor-tracking success for our earlier OmTrackVLA model, the complete multi-stage recipe achieves 55.80\%. We then explore on-policy refinement using filtered oracle labels for states visited by the policy. This preliminary study adds 2.42 percentage points of distractor-tracking success, reaching 58.22\%, while reducing collision rate by 1.99 pts. The final policy records the highest distractor- and ambiguous-tracking success rates among the compared methods. These results support staged multimodal learning as a promising direction for tracking among distractors and motivate further study of on-policy refinement for person following in shared spaces.

On-policy distillation (OPD) improves language-model by supervising a student on prefixes sampled from its own policy, but its supervision remains confined to the output space. Consequently, OPD transfers what a teacher predicts without supervising the intermediate computation that produces those predictions. Simply distilling intermediate representations like representation matching is insufficient since teacher and student representations may differ geometrically, and even well-aligned hidden states need not be usable by the student's subsequent computation. We introduce On-Policy Mechanism Distillation (OPMD), which transfers teacher-derived intermediate computation while explicitly accounting for its compatibility with the student. OPMD first constructs a student-compatible teacher that transforms teacher representations into intermediate states usable by the student's downstream computation, then it internalizes these states from on-policy trajectories. OPMD achieves the highest average accuracy among the evaluated distillation baselines in all three teacher--student settings, and generalizes to multi-teacher distillation and cross-family supervised fine-tuning. Further analyses show that mechanism supervision yields more effective reasoning and meaningfully alters the student's intermediate computation and solution strategies, supporting that it transfers information beyond output supervision alone. Together, these results establish mechanism-level supervision as an effective way to move on-policy distillation beyond output supervision, enabling students to learn inner mechanisms they can use and internalize.

Multi-teacher on-policy distillation (MOPD) combines independently developed domain teachers into a single student by distilling their predictions on student-generated samples. We study a setting where teachers share a reference model but undergo different post-training procedures, and find that MOPD can struggle to recover some teacher capabilities. Because distillation occurs on student-generated prefixes, the student initialization can strongly affect subsequent recovery. However, initial benchmark performance is not a reliable predictor of a good MOPD initialization. For example, merge initialization can start below SFT warm-up yet finish higher after MOPD. We further find that effective merging depends on both the relative teacher contributions and the overall merge scale, with some strong configurations lying outside the simplex of convex parameter averaging. Thus, selecting a good merge initialization requires evaluating not only its immediate performance but also the learning it enables under MOPD, making one-shot coefficient search difficult. We propose Iterative Merging for MOPD (IM-MOPD), which starts from a uniform merge and progressively adds task-vector increments for under-recovered domains during distillation. In a 5-domain setting, IM-MOPD achieves higher average normalized recovery than MOPD with either uniform merge initialization or SFT warm-up, showing that effective teacher contributions can be determined progressively during training.