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Oct 16

Your Agents Are Aging Too: Agent Lifespan Engineering for Deployed Systems

Long-lived AI agents are increasingly deployed as persistent operational systems, yet they are still evaluated like freshly initialized models. Day-one benchmarks miss a basic systems question: how long does an agent remain reliable after deployment? Even when model weights are frozen, an agent's effective state keeps changing as it compresses interaction history, retrieves from a growing memory store, revises facts after updates, and undergoes routine maintenance. Reliability therefore becomes a lifespan property of the full agent harness, not only a snapshot property of the base model. We introduce AgingBench, a longitudinal reliability benchmark for agent lifespan engineering: measuring not only whether deployed agents degrade, but what form the degradation takes and where repair should target. AgingBench organizes agent aging into four mechanisms: compression aging, interference aging, revision aging, and maintenance aging. To diagnose these failures, AgingBench uses temporal dependency graphs and paired counterfactual probes that produce diagnostic profiles for the write, retrieval, and utilization stages of the memory pipeline. Across 7 scenarios, 14 models, multiple memory policies, and both runner-controlled and autonomous agents, over ~400 runs spanning 8 - 200 sessions show that agent aging is not one-dimensional: behavioral tests can remain clean while factual precision decays; derived-state tracking can collapse sharply within a single model; and the same wrong answer can require different repairs depending on what the diagnostic profile points to. These results suggest that reliable agent deployment requires lifespan evaluation, mechanism-level diagnosis, and stage-targeted repair, not only stronger day-one models.

  • 8 authors
·
May 24 2

The Role of Ab Initio Beta-Decay Calculations in Light Nuclei for Probes of Physics Beyond the Standard Model

Precision beta decay experiments serve as powerful probes of physics beyond the Standard Model, enabling stringent tests of fundamental symmetries of nature. In particular, these experiments primarily focus on precise determinations of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element Vud and the search for exotic weak currents, both of which depend critically on theoretical calculations of radiative, recoil-order, and isospin-breaking corrections with quantified uncertainties. In recent years, ab initio nuclear many-body methods--grounded in realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions and systematically improvable approximations--have advanced considerably in their ability to compute these higher-order corrections for various nuclei. This review provides a comprehensive overview of state-of-the-art ab initio calculations of beta-decay corrections, encompassing both radiative corrections and recoil-order terms, and examines their significance for precision tests of the Standard Model. We discuss the theoretical formalisms employed, including the integration of effective field theory frameworks with many-body approaches. Particular attention is given to recent results for superallowed Fermi decays (e.g., 10C -> 10B and 14O -> 14C) and allowed Gamow-Teller transitions (e.g., 6He -> 6Li, 8Li -> 8Be, 8B -> 8Be), where ab initio calculations have achieved unprecedented precision. We also highlight emerging calculations for unique forbidden decays, which offer complementary sensitivity to BSM physics. Finally, we outline future directions aimed at extending the reach of ab initio calculations to heavier nuclei and additional decay modes, thereby strengthening the synergy between theory and experiment in the ongoing search for new physics.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 30

Why Gated DeltaNet Survives 4-Bit Quantization: NVFP4 W4A4 for the Recurrent Half of a Hybrid 27B LLM

Hybrid LLMs pair softmax attention with linear-attention layers such as Gated DeltaNet (GDN), whose recurrent state summarizes the context in fixed size. Early community 4-bit quantizations of Qwen3.8-27B (48 GDN layers, 16 attention layers) left the GDN block in 8- or 16-bit precision -- especially its decay and write-strength gates -- on the intuition that errors in a recurrence accumulate over long contexts. We test that intuition by building Minima: NVFP4 W4A4 on all 496 linear layers, GDN included. Across perplexity at 4K/32K, MMLU-Pro, GSM8K, AIME'25, GPQA-Diamond, LiveCodeBench, and RULER retrieval to 64K, Minima matches BF16 within seed noise (5-task average -0.52) while being the smallest (17.5 GiB) and fastest-prefill (+14-19%) recipe we compare, and its 32K perplexity gap shrinks with position. A four-part mechanism study explains why: (i) NVFP4's 16-element block scaling localizes the residual stream's extreme outliers, equalizing activation error across layer roles; (ii) the supposedly fragile gate projections are the least sensitive -- softplus/exponential and sigmoid parameterizations compress ~11% GEMM error to ~2% output error; (iii) the delta-rule recurrence holds injected noise at a flat plateau over 32K tokens and forgets a state impulse within hundreds of steps, because each write overwrites the state along the current key direction; (iv) the per-token quantization cost washes out with context instead of compounding. We also repair a global-scale mismatch that arises when per-module-calibrated NVFP4 checkpoints are served by kernels that fuse those modules into one GEMM, and show calibrated FP8 KV-cache scales are performance-free. The result: a practical recipe -- quantize everything, ship KV scales -- and a mechanistic account of why the recurrent half of a hybrid LLM is the easy half to quantize. Checkpoint: https://huggingface.co/minima-ai/mnma_qwen3.8_27b_nvfp4

minima-ai Minima AI
·
Sep 2 2

DAMP: Decay-Aware Mixed-Precision Recurrent-State Quantization

Softmax attention stores key and value vectors for every preceding token, causing inference memory to grow with sequence length. Recent language models incorporating Gated DeltaNet (GDN) or Kimi Delta Attention (KDA) reduce this cost by replacing the KV cache in most layers with fixed-size recurrent states. However, these recurrent states are commonly stored in FP32 and consume substantial GPU memory; their updates are memory-bandwidth bound and contribute significantly to decoding latency. To our knowledge, we are the first to study post-training quantization of recurrent states in GDN and KDA based language models. We find that uniform quantization provides a poor accuracy--storage trade-off: INT8 and FP8 already degrade accuracy on complex reasoning tasks, while INT4 and NVFP4 reduce it to near zero. We further find that most quantization-error energy is concentrated in a small subset of channels and that the relative decay strength of state channels remains stable across prompts and tasks. Motivated by these findings, DAMP uses both quantization-error energy and decay-based persistence to identify high-risk channels during offline calibration. It stores these channels at higher precision and the remainder in INT8. We evaluate DAMP on Qwen3.6-35B and Kimi-Linear-48B across six benchmarks covering mathematical reasoning, general reasoning, and code generation. At 9.9 bits per state value, DAMP maintains average accuracy close to the FP32 baseline. DAMP reduces recurrent-state storage by 69.1%, accelerates the recurrent-state update kernel by up to 2.01x, and lowers full-model TPOT by up to 10.9%.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 26

Analyzing Data Quality and Decay in Mega-Constellations: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13, 2025

ECO: Quantized Training without Full-Precision Master Weights

Quantization has significantly improved the compute and memory efficiency of Large Language Model (LLM) training. However, existing approaches still rely on accumulating their updates in high-precision: concretely, gradient updates must be applied to a high-precision weight buffer, known as master weights. This buffer introduces substantial memory overhead, particularly for Sparse Mixture of Experts (SMoE) models, where model parameters and optimizer states dominate memory usage. To address this, we introduce the Error-Compensating Optimizer (ECO), which eliminates master weights by applying updates directly to quantized parameters. ECO quantizes weights after each step and carefully injects the resulting quantization error into the optimizer momentum, forming an error-feedback loop with no additional memory. We prove that, under standard assumptions and a decaying learning rate, ECO converges to a constant-radius neighborhood of the optimum, while naive master-weight removal can incur an error that is inversely proportional to the learning rate. We show empirical results for pretraining small Transformers (30-800M), a Gemma-3 1B model, and a 2.1B parameter Sparse MoE model with FP8 quantization, and fine-tuning DeepSeek-MoE-16B in INT4 precision. Throughout, ECO matches baselines with master weights up to near-lossless accuracy, significantly shifting the static memory vs validation loss Pareto frontier.

google Google
·
Jan 29 3

SymbolicLight V1: Spike-Gated Dual-Path Language Modeling with High Activation Sparsity and Sub-Billion-Scale Pre-Training Evidence

Natively trained spiking language models struggle to combine Transformer-like language quality, stable multi-domain pre-training, and high activation sparsity. We present SymbolicLight V1, a spike-gated dual-path language model that combines binary Leaky Integrate-and-Fire spike dynamics with a continuous residual stream. Its Dual-Path SparseTCAM module replaces dense self-attention with an exponential-decay aggregation path for long-range memory and a spike-gated local attention path for short-range precision, complemented by a dynamic context-conditioned decoding head and a bilingual tokenizer. A 194M-parameter SymbolicLight V1 model trained from scratch on a 3B-token Chinese-English corpus reaches held-out validation PPL 8.88-8.93 across four independent runs at >89% per-element activation sparsity. It trails GPT-2 201M by 7.7% in PPL while surpassing GPT-2 124M under the reported comparison. Component ablations at matched 0.5B-token training budgets show that the spike-gated local attention path is the largest contributor, and that replacing LIF dynamics with a deterministic top-k mask at matched sparsity causes a larger degradation, indicating that temporal integration rather than sparsity alone drives performance. We also report a 0.8B-parameter scale-up run trained on 48.8B tokens as evidence of optimization and sparsity preservation, not as a primary quality comparison. Current dense-hardware inference is slower than GPT-2, so neuromorphic deployment is presented as a future sparsity-driven opportunity rather than an achieved hardware speedup.

  • 1 authors
·
May 19

Compute-Optimal Quantization-Aware Training

Quantization-aware training (QAT) is a leading technique for improving the accuracy of quantized neural networks. Previous work has shown that decomposing training into a full-precision (FP) phase followed by a QAT phase yields superior accuracy compared to QAT alone. However, the optimal allocation of compute between the FP and QAT phases remains unclear. We conduct extensive experiments with various compute budgets, QAT bit widths, and model sizes from 86.0M to 2.2B to investigate how different QAT durations impact final performance. We demonstrate that, contrary to previous findings, the loss-optimal ratio of QAT to FP training increases with the total amount of compute. Moreover, the optimal fraction can be accurately predicted for a wide range of model sizes and quantization widths using the tokens-per-parameter-byte statistic. From experimental data, we derive a loss scaling law that predicts both optimal QAT ratios and final model performance across different QAT/FP compute allocation strategies and QAT bit widths. We use the scaling law to make further predictions, which we verify experimentally, including which QAT bit width is optimal under a given memory constraint and how QAT accuracy with different bit widths compares to full-precision model accuracy. Additionally, we propose a novel cooldown and QAT fusion approach that performs learning rate decay jointly with quantization-aware training, eliminating redundant full-precision model updates and achieving significant compute savings. These findings provide practical insights into efficient QAT planning and enable the training of higher-quality quantized models with the same compute budget.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 26, 2025

Accessing the strong interaction between $Λ$ baryons and charged kaons with the femtoscopy technique at the LHC

The interaction between Λ baryons and kaons/antikaons is a crucial ingredient for the strangeness S=0 and S=-2 sector of the meson-baryon interaction at low energies. In particular, the Λ{overline{K}} might help in understanding the origin of states such as the Ξ(1620), whose nature and properties are still under debate. Experimental data on Λ-{K} and Λ-{overline{K}} systems are scarce, leading to large uncertainties and tension between the available theoretical predictions constrained by such data. In this Letter we present the measurements of Λ-K^+oplus overlineΛ-K^- and Λ-K^-oplus overlineΛ-K^+ correlations obtained in the high-multiplicity triggered data sample in pp collisions at s=13 TeV recorded by ALICE at the LHC. The correlation function for both pairs is modeled using the Lednicky-Lyuboshits analytical formula and the corresponding scattering parameters are extracted. The Λ-K^-oplus overlineΛ-K^+ correlations show the presence of several structures at relative momenta k^* above 200 MeV/c, compatible with the Ω baryon, the Ξ(1690), and Ξ(1820) resonances decaying into Λ-K^- pairs. The low k^* region in the Λ-K^-oplus overlineΛ-K^+ also exhibits the presence of the Ξ(1620) state, expected to strongly couple to the measured pair. The presented data allow to access the ΛK^+ and ΛK^- strong interaction with an unprecedented precision and deliver the first experimental observation of the Ξ(1620) decaying into ΛK^-.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 10, 2023

Mellum2 Technical Report

We present Mellum 2, an open-weight 12B-parameter Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language model with 2.5B active parameters per token. Mellum 2 is a general-purpose language model specialized in software engineering, spanning code generation and editing, debugging, multi-step reasoning, tool use and function calling, agentic coding, and conversational programming assistance, and it is the successor to the completion-focused 4B dense Mellum model. The architecture builds on the Mixture-of-Experts (64 experts, 8 active) and combines Grouped-Query Attention with 4 KV heads, Sliding Window Attention on three of every four layers, and a single Multi-Token Prediction head that doubles as both an auxiliary pre-training objective and a built-in draft model for speculative decoding; each choice was validated by ablation with inference efficiency on commodity GPUs as a design constraint. Pre-training spans approximately 10.6 trillion tokens through a three-phase curriculum that progressively shifts the mixture from diverse web data toward curated code and mathematical content, optimized with Muon under FP8 hybrid precision and a Warmup-Hold-Decay schedule with linear decay to zero. The pre-trained base is extended to a 128K context window via a layer-selective YaRN and then post-trained in two stages (supervised fine-tuning followed by RLVR), yielding two released variants: an Instruct model that answers directly and a Thinking model that emits an explicit reasoning trace before its final answer. Across code generation, math and reasoning, tool use, knowledge, and safety benchmarks, Mellum 2 is competitive with open-weight baselines in the 4B-14B range while running at the per-token compute of a 2.5B dense model. We release the base, instruct, and thinking checkpoints, together with this report on the architecture decisions, data pipeline, and training recipe behind them, under the Apache 2.0 license.

JetBrains JetBrains
·
May 28 3

Nepali Legal Expertise through Generative and Extractive Pre-trained Transformers (NepLEGiT)

The complexity of legal language and limited accessibility to legal information pose significant challenges to justice delivery in Nepal. Traditional legal services remain inaccessible to many citizens due to language barriers, information fragmentation, and a critical shortage of legal expertise, particularly in rural areas. We present NepLEGiT (Nepali Legal Expertise through Generative and Extractive Pre-trained Transformers), a specialized small language model (SLM) designed to democratize legal knowledge and enhance legal-service delivery in Nepal. We pre-train a decoder-based GPT-2 SLM from scratch on a curated corpus of ~4 million tokens of Nepali legal text, covering constitutional law, civil and criminal codes, and administrative regulations. The model comprises ~30 million parameters in a 6-layer, 6-head, 384-dimensional transformer trained with warmup cosine-decay scheduling, gradient accumulation, and mixed-precision arithmetic. On a held-out validation split, NepLEGiT attains a cross-entropy loss of 0.5684, a perplexity of 1.8, and a next-token prediction accuracy of 82.9%. We further evaluate continual masked-language-model pre-training of mBERT and MuRIL on the same corpus; mBERT achieves a perplexity of 2.35 (eval loss 0.8565), outperforming MuRIL (perplexity 6.07, eval loss 1.8026), providing a strong encoder baseline complementary to NepLEGiT's generative orientation.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 7

Quantifying the Scientific Potential of Intermediate and Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will enable precision studies of Extreme and Intermediate Mass Ratio Inspirals (EMRIs/IMRIs), providing unique probes of astrophysical environments of galactic nuclei and strong-field gravity. Using a fully relativistic pipeline across primary masses m_1 in [5times10^4, 10^7],M_odot and secondary masses m_2 in [1, 10^4],M_odot, we map instrumental performance directly to detection horizons and parameter measurement precision. EMRIs with m_1 = 10^7,M_odot and m_2 sim 1,M_odot are the most sensitive to instrument degradation, with redshift horizons at z sim 0.01, while IMRIs are the least sensitive to degradation and reach redshifts z sim 1-3. All prograde systems considered achieve sub-percent spin precision within three months of observation. The full 4.5-year mission increases the horizon of systems with m_1 = 10^7,M_odot and m_2 sim 1,M_odot by a factor of sim 4 and improves sky localization by one to two orders of magnitude reaching < 10,deg^2. IMRI detection is robust against degradation, but their parameter estimation is more vulnerable due to fewer cycles in band. With the full baseline, EMRI observations constrain scalar dipole emission and Kerr quadrupole deviations below ground-based bounds by one to two orders of magnitude. We release the accompanying software and an interactive website to enable the community to rapidly quantify the scientific potential of EMRIs and IMRIs.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 16

Excess Separability: Nuisance-Controlled Residual-Stream Probing for Benchmark Contamination Detection

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 15

Quantization Meets Reasoning: Exploring and Mitigating Degradation of Low-Bit LLMs in Mathematical Reasoning

Low-bit post-training quantization (PTQ) is a practical route to deploy reasoning-capable LLMs under tight memory and latency budgets, yet it can markedly impair mathematical reasoning (drops up to 69.81% in our harder settings). We address two deployment-critical questions with process-level precision: Where along a step-structured solution does degradation first arise? How to mitigate it while staying in the low-bit regime? Across widely used PTQ methods (AWQ, GPTQ, SmoothQuant), open-source model families (Qwen, LLaMA; 0.5--7B), and math reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K, MATH, AIME), we perform format-aligned chain-of-thought with step-aligned attribution and uncover two robust regularities: (i) PTQ disproportionately elevates method and execution errors relative to high-level conceptual mistakes; and (ii) failures emerge early, with the first vulnerable step flipping and cascading to the final answer. These regularities suggest a general intervention principle: restore local token-level margins exactly at the earliest failure frontier. We instantiate this principle as a lightweight measurerightarrowlocaterightarrowrestore loop that operates directly on the quantized model: detect the first faulty step, construct our "Silver Bullet" datasets, and apply small-scale supervised/preference tuning. In our settings, as few as 332 curated examples and 3--5 minutes of compute on a single GPU recover 4-bit weight math reasoning toward the full-precision baseline while preserving PTQ efficiency. Our framework is quantizer- and architecture-agnostic within the evaluated regimes, and turns low-bit degradation from a global accuracy problem into a local, reproducible process intervention.

  • 11 authors
·
Jan 19

Stability of Superconducting Strings

We investigate the stability of superconducting strings as bound states of strings and fermion zero modes at both the classical and quantum levels. The dynamics of these superconducting strings can result in a stable configuration, known as a vorton. We mainly focus on global strings, but the majority of the discussion can be applied to local strings. Using lattice simulations, we study the classical dynamics of superconducting strings and confirm that they relax to the vorton configuration through Nambu-Goldstone boson radiation, with no evidence of over-shooting that would destabilize the vorton. We explore the tunneling of fermion zero modes out of the strings. Both our classical analysis and quantum calculations yield consistent results: the maximum energy of the zero mode significantly exceeds the fermion mass, in contrast to previous literature. Additionally, we introduce a world-sheet formalism to evaluate the decay rate of zero modes into other particles, which constitute the dominant decay channel. We also identify additional processes that trigger zero-mode decay due to non-adiabatic changes of the string configuration. In these decay processes, the rates are suppressed by the curvature of string loops, with exponential suppression for large masses of the final states. We further study the scattering with light charged particles surrounding the string core produced by the zero-mode current and find that a wide zero-mode wavefunction can enhance vorton stability.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 16, 2024

When Quantization Breaks Memory: Recurrent-State Write-Back in Low-Precision Temporal Inference

Quantization is widely used to reduce the computational and memory demands of neural-network inference. In recurrent networks, however, the quantized state is stored and returned at the next time step, so the rule used to store that state can alter subsequent computations. Here, we introduce recurrent-state write-back to denote this rule and isolate its effect in a compact GRU encoder--decoder for fluorescence lifetime imaging, a molecular imaging modality used in quantitative biological imaging. A central task is estimating two lifetime parameters, the short-lived component τ1 and the long-lived component τ2, from high-noise time-resolved fluorescence signals. Holding the trained model fixed, replacing continuous state propagation with deterministic 4-bit state storage increases estimation errors for τ1 and τ2 by approximately 70x and 300x, respectively. Failure occurs when repeated small updates remain below the write threshold, leaving the stored state nearly fixed while the network continues to propose change. Error feedback, residual memory, and direction memory carry information from these suppressed updates across time and recover accuracy without retraining. Precision sweeps show that increasing state precision can worsen a fixed recurrent solution, while matched training shows that compatibility with the state interface can be learned. To test whether this behavior extends beyond the GRU, we repeat the post-training intervention in an independently trained LSTM, where coarse write-back reproduces the failure, error feedback restores accuracy, and state-specific interventions reveal greater sensitivity of the cell state than the hidden state. Our results establish recurrent-state write-back as a key determinant of low-precision recurrent dynamics and identify the state-storage interface as a central design consideration for quantized recurrent inference.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 2 2

AutoNumerics-Zero: Automated Discovery of State-of-the-Art Mathematical Functions

Computers calculate transcendental functions by approximating them through the composition of a few limited-precision instructions. For example, an exponential can be calculated with a Taylor series. These approximation methods were developed over the centuries by mathematicians, who emphasized the attainability of arbitrary precision. Computers, however, operate on few limited precision types, such as the popular float32. In this study, we show that when aiming for limited precision, existing approximation methods can be outperformed by programs automatically discovered from scratch by a simple evolutionary algorithm. In particular, over real numbers, our method can approximate the exponential function reaching orders of magnitude more precision for a given number of operations when compared to previous approaches. More practically, over float32 numbers and constrained to less than 1 ULP of error, the same method attains a speedup over baselines by generating code that triggers better XLA/LLVM compilation paths. In other words, in both cases, evolution searched a vast space of possible programs, without knowledge of mathematics, to discover previously unknown optimized approximations to high precision, for the first time. We also give evidence that these results extend beyond the exponential. The ubiquity of transcendental functions suggests that our method has the potential to reduce the cost of scientific computing applications.

  • 10 authors
·
Dec 13, 2023

anyakrakusuma: A Python Library for Entropic Schrödinger Bridges on Idealized Geometries

We present anyakrakusuma, an open-source Python library that solves the discrete static Schrödinger bridge problem, the entropically regularized counterpart of optimal transport, through a log-domain Sinkhorn--Knopp iteration and reconstructs the entropic interpolation between two empirical point clouds. The solver is paired with a diagnostic pipeline that characterizes the optimal coupling and the intermediate distributions through information-theoretic and geometric measures. We exercise the library on four idealized planar cases spanning a circle-to-circle dilation, a spiral-to-mixture fragmentation, a rigid reorientation of two moons, and a Lissajous-to-trefoil deformation. The log-domain formulation is necessary rather than merely convenient at the parameters studied, where the cost-to-regularization ratio reaches four hundred and the Gibbs kernel underflows double precision across most of its range; the iteration nonetheless attains a marginal residual of 10^{-9} and unit marginal fidelity in every case. Residual histories decay geometrically over approximately eight decades at per-iteration contraction factors between 0.966 and 0.976, which are local rates near the fixed point that lie many orders of magnitude below the worst-case Hilbert-metric bound. The covariance analysis recovers an imposed ninety-degree reorientation to within 0.07^circ, roughly forty times smaller than its uncertainty, across a masked interval of near-isotropy on which the principal axis is unobservable. The diagnostics are reported with explicit attention to the regimes in which each is well defined, including the differential entropy, which is meaningful only on the open interpolation interval. The presented cases are constructed rather than measured; quantitative application to empirical point clouds requires further study.

Climate Modelling in Low-Precision: Effects of both Deterministic & Stochastic Rounding

Motivated by recent advances in operational weather forecasting, we study the efficacy of low-precision arithmetic for climate simulations. We develop a framework to measure rounding error in a climate model which provides a stress-test for a low-precision version of the model, and we apply our method to a variety of models including the Lorenz system; a shallow water approximation for flow over a ridge; and a coarse resolution global atmospheric model with simplified parameterisations (SPEEDY). Although double precision (52 significant bits) is standard across operational climate models, in our experiments we find that single precision (23 sbits) is more than enough and that as low as half precision (10 sbits) is often sufficient. For example, SPEEDY can be run with 12 sbits across the entire code with negligible rounding error and this can be lowered to 10 sbits if very minor errors are accepted, amounting to less than 0.1 mm/6hr for the average grid-point precipitation, for example. Our test is based on the Wasserstein metric and this provides stringent non-parametric bounds on rounding error accounting for annual means as well as extreme weather events. In addition, by testing models using both round-to-nearest (RN) and stochastic rounding (SR) we find that SR can mitigate rounding error across a range of applications. Thus our results also provide evidence that SR could be relevant to next-generation climate models. While many studies have shown that low-precision arithmetic can be suitable on short-term weather forecasting timescales, our results give the first evidence that a similar low precision level can be suitable for climate.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 30, 2021

Experimental Implementation of the Quantum Volunteer's Dilemma on NISQ Hardware: Noise Analysis and Digital-Twin Validation

We present an experimental implementation of the multiplayer Quantum Volunteer's Dilemma on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware, executed on the ibm_kingston backend via Qiskit Runtime. The game is evaluated for N = 2 to 9 players under four transpiler optimization levels, with 20 independent repetitions per configuration and 2048 shots per circuit, including post-processing readout error correction via mthree. Target-state fidelity decays with system size but remains above 70% (corrected) through N = 9. With readout correction, the global average payoff reproduces the quantum theoretical benchmark exactly for N <= 6 and exceeds the classical Nash equilibrium across the full tested range. Optimization level 2 is selected as the reference configuration after gate count analysis reveals that levels 2 and 3 produce identical transpiled circuits, with level 2 achieving superior fidelity stability. A Hamming distance analysis of raw measurement counts shows that single-qubit errors dominate at small N, with multi-qubit contributions growing beyond N = 6. A calibration-based digital twin captures global payoff trends but exhibits a linear fidelity decay profile that diverges from the hardware behavior at large N, exposing the limits of first-order independent per-qubit noise models. These results demonstrate that aggregate quantum advantage in multiplayer games is robust to NISQ noise conditions across the full tested range, while the practical observability of state-level advantage is constrained to N <= 8 under post-processed readout correction.

  • 7 authors
·
May 28

The Life Cycle of a Massive Activation: Stochastic Birth, Weight-Decay-Driven Growth, and Competitive Consolidation

Massive activations, residual-stream coordinates with magnitudes far larger than typical activations, are associated with attention sinks in transformers, but how their scale is regulated during training remains incompletely understood. Combining training-trajectory analyses and controlled interventions, we trace their emergence, growth, and consolidation. Sink-carrying channels vary across random seeds but stabilize early within each run. Over longer training, surrounding channels erode and the sink concentrates onto a few redundant carriers. Across ablations, gradient attenuation follows the sink token's collective root-mean-square magnitude rather than any single channel, making collective scale central to understanding their effects. Our central result is that weight decay causally controls the turnover of global activation scale. In controlled continuations, removing decay near the peak allows this scale to keep rising, whereas retaining it produces decline even at constant learning rate. We develop a balance model for the rise and peak of massive-activation magnitude, in which AdamW-preconditioned growth opposes weight decay. Sweeping the decay coefficient λ shifts peak timing approximately log-linearly and yields peak magnitudes scaling approximately as λ^{-1/2}, consistent with this balance. Optimizer measurements further show that preconditioning sustains the large-channel cohort against decay even when raw maintaining forces are too small to do so. Together, these findings connect the observed life cycle to scale-regulating training dynamics and establish weight decay as a training-time lever on activation magnitude.

Fundamental physics with ESPRESSO: Precise limit on variations in the fine-structure constant towards the bright quasar HE 0515-4414

The strong intervening absorption system at redshift 1.15 towards the very bright quasar HE 0515-4414 is the most studied absorber for measuring possible cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant, α. We observed HE 0515-4414 for 16.1,h with the Very Large Telescope and present here the first constraint on relative variations in α with parts-per-million (ppm) precision from the new ESPRESSO spectrograph: Δα/α= 1.3 pm 1.3_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},{rm ppm}. The statistical uncertainty (1σ) is similar to the ensemble precision of previous large samples of absorbers, and derives from the high S/N achieved (approx105 per 0.4,km,s^{-1} pixel). ESPRESSO's design, and calibration of our observations with its laser frequency comb, effectively removed wavelength calibration errors from our measurement. The high resolving power of our ESPRESSO spectrum (R=145000) enabled the identification of very narrow components within the absorption profile, allowing a more robust analysis of Δα/α. The evidence for the narrow components is corroborated by their correspondence with previously detected molecular hydrogen and neutral carbon. The main remaining systematic errors arise from ambiguities in the absorption profile modelling, effects from redispersing the individual quasar exposures, and convergence of the parameter estimation algorithm. All analyses of the spectrum, including systematic error estimates, were initially blinded to avoid human biases. We make our reduced ESPRESSO spectrum of HE 0515-4414 publicly available for further analysis. Combining our ESPRESSO result with 28 measurements, from other spectrographs, in which wavelength calibration errors have been mitigated, yields a weighted mean Δα/α= -0.5 pm 0.5_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},ppm at redshifts 0.6-2.4.

  • 43 authors
·
Dec 9, 2021

What Should World Models Forget? Stratified Retention for Continual Adaptation

Continual learning treats degradation on previously seen data as evidence of failure, a convention inherited from settings with a stationary prediction target, where a correct label remains correct indefinitely. World models do not satisfy this condition. Their prediction target is the environment, which changes, so knowledge that was accurate when acquired may later become false, and discarding it is required behavior rather than a defect. Non-stationary ground truth is well studied in the concept drift literature and in the temporal factuality of language models, but has not been formulated for world models, which are distinctive in that they also encode knowledge that must never be revised. We argue that continual world models require retention stratified by invariance timescale, separating invariants such as physics and object permanence, which must never be revised, from instance-level facts that should be revised as soon as the environment changes. Standard forgetting metrics cannot distinguish a world model that has correctly revised outdated knowledge from one that has suffered catastrophic forgetting, and consequently rank a frozen model highest, while existing physical-reasoning benchmarks evaluate only frozen checkpoints. We propose differential retention, which reports invariant regression testing across the adaptation stream jointly with revision latency, without aggregation.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 1

Proton emission half-lives and shape coexistence for 71 leq Z leq 83 odd-Z nuclei

One-proton emission is a direct probe of nuclear structure near the proton drip line and plays a critical role in understanding exotic decay modes and nucleosynthesis processes. In this study, we investigate the half-lives of one-proton emitters for 71 leq Z leq 83 odd-Z nuclei by employing the WKB approximation with nuclear potentials obtained from the deformed relativistic Hartree-Bogoliubov theory in continuum (DRHBc) and, for comparison, the relativistic continuum Hartree-Bogoliubov theory (RCHB). We first compare the calculated half-lives with available experimental data. The inclusion of quadrupole deformation via the DRHBc hardly contributes to improving the predictions of half-lives for the deformed nuclei. We find that all the studied nuclei exhibit ground states with |β_{2,{rm DRHBc}}| < 0.15, and within this limited deformation range the spectroscopic factor provides the dominant contribution to the half-life, compared to the decay width. In particular, for nuclei exhibiting shape coexistence in DRHBc, such as ^{170}Au, where the half-life varies significantly with the quadrupole deformation through its effect on the spectroscopic factor, we expect shape coexistence to exert a substantial influence on the variation of half-lives. Finally, we discuss the half-lives in consideration of shape coexistence. Our results indicate that the calculated half-life is governed not by the total-energy difference between coexisting minima but rather by the spectroscopic factor influenced by the deformation.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 19

Constraints on the variation of the fine-structure constant at 3<z<10 with JWST emission-line galaxies

We present constraints on the spacetime variation of the fine-structure constant alpha at redshifts 2.5le z<9.5 using JWST emission-line galaxies. The galaxy sample consists of 621 high-quality spectra with strong and narrow [O III] lambdalambda4959,5007 doublet emission lines from 578 galaxies, including 232 spectra at z>5. The [O III] doublet lines are arguably the best emission lines to probe the variation in alpha. We divide our sample into six subsamples based on redshift and calculate the relative variation Deltaalpha/alpha for the individual subsamples. The calculated Deltaalpha/alpha values are consistent with zero within 1sigma at all redshifts, suggesting no time variation in alpha above a level of (1-2) times10^{-4} (1sigma) in the past 13.2 billion years. When the whole sample is combined, the constraint is improved to be Deltaalpha/alpha = (0.2pm0.7) times10^{-4}. We further test the spatial variation in alpha using four subsamples of galaxies in four different directions on the sky. The measured Deltaalpha/alpha values are consistent with zero at a 1sigma level of sim 2times10^{-4}. While the constraints in this work are not as stringent as those from lower-redshift quasar absorption lines in previous studies, this work uses an independent tracer and provides the first constraints on Deltaalpha/alpha at the highest redshifts. With the growing number of emission-line galaxies from JWST, we expect to achieve stronger constraints in the future.

  • 10 authors
·
May 14, 2024

The Mu3e Experiment: Status and Short-Term Plans

Mu3e is an experiment currently under construction at the Paul Scherrer Institute in Switzerland, designed to search for the Lepton Flavor Violating (LFV) decay mu^+ rightarrow e^+e^-e^+. In extensions of the Standard Model (SM) that account for neutrino masses, this decay is theoretically allowed but occurs only through extremely rare loop processes, with a predicted branching ratio of approximately O(10^{-54}). Such a small probability implies that any observation of this decay would provide clear evidence for physics beyond the SM. The Mu3e experiment aims to probe the mu^+ rightarrow e^+e^-e^+ decay with a sensitivity of approximately O(10^{-15}) in its Phase-1 and plans to achieve a sensitivity of O(10^{-16}) after future upgrades. To reach its Phase-1 ambitious goals, Mu3e is going to use the most intense continuous muon beam in the world, generating 10^{8} muon stops per second in the target placed at the center of the Mu3e. Mu3e will use three main technologies for particle detection. The tracking will done through ultra-thin (50 - 70 mu m) pixel detectors based on MuPix11 sensors. These are high-voltage monolithic active pixel sensors (HV-MAPS) with a sim 23~mum spatial resolution. The timing will be done through scintillating fibres (sim 250 ps) and tiles (sim 40 ps), coupled to silicon photomultipliers and read out by MuTRiG3 ASICs. A triggerless DAQ system based on FPGAs will collect data from the detectors, which will then undergo reconstruction in a GPU filter farm. The assembly of the detectors has started, with a detector commissioning beam time planned for 2025. This document reports on the status of the construction, installation, and data-taking plans for the near future.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 24, 2025

Teaching Agents to Code Reliably

Autonomous coding agents solve repository issues by reading code, running commands, editing files, and submitting patches. Extra inference-time compute yields gains only when it produces a useful repair and supplies reliable evidence for choosing one. Three behaviors decide both, and we argue they are teachable rather than byproducts of scale, so a policy can carry them instead of a scaffold. Location diversity remains narrow, since attempts return to the same site and extra samples add no coverage. Edit diversity is left unexploited, since methodologies that differ resolve complementary issues no single run reaches. Verification misleads, since a test the agent writes for its own patch accepts many incorrect ones. Directing search by execution feedback and scoring each patch against its own reverted tree resolves 52.8% of SWE-bench Verified using 48.1% of the agent-steps an eight-sample baseline spends. Training moves these behaviors into the policy. On the 270 issues held out from SFT and RL training, weighted supervised fine-tuning raises pass@1 from 31.9% to 35.2% and pass@8 from 46.7% to 51.1%. A reinforcement objective then trains the verifier against gold-labeled repairs and incorrect variants, crediting the assertions that detect them. It raises pass@1 to 43.0% and pass@8 to 60.7%, lifts verifier precision from 26.8% to 41.7%, and more than halves false acceptance. Resolution improves on two of three out-of-distribution suites and verifier precision on all three, and the gains hold at 7B, 14B, and 30B against published coder baselines.

  • 6 authors
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Oct 1

I-GLIDE: Input Groups for Latent Health Indicators in Degradation Estimation

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

orailix Orailix
·
Nov 26, 2025 2

Broad-band High-Energy Resolution Hard X-ray Spectroscopy using Transition Edge Sensors at SPring-8

We have succeeded in operating a transition-edge sensor (TES) spectrometer and evaluating its performance at the SPring-8 synchrotron X-ray light source. The TES spectrometer consists of a 240 pixel National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) TES system, and 220 pixels are operated simultaneously with an energy resolution of 4~eV at 6~keV at a rate of about 1~c/s/pixel. The tolerance for high count rates is evaluated in terms of energy resolution and live time fraction, leading to an empirical compromise of about 2 x 10^3 c/s/all pixels with an energy resolution of 5 eV at 6 keV. By utilizing the TES's wide-band spectroscopic capability, simultaneous multi-element analysis is demonstrated for a standard sample. We conducted X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) analysis in fluorescence mode using the TES spectrometer. The excellent energy resolution of the TES enabled us to detect weak fluorescence lines from dilute samples and trace elements that have previously been difficult to resolve due to the nearly overlapping emission lines of other dominant elements. The neighboring lines of As K alpha and Pb L alpha2 of the standard sample were clearly resolved and the XANES of Pb L alpha2 was obtained. Moreover, the X-ray spectrum from the small amount of Fe in aerosols was distinguished from the spectrum of a blank target, which helps us to understand the targets and the environment. These results are the first important step for the application of high resolution TES-based spectroscopy at hard X-ray synchrotron facilities.

  • 43 authors
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Apr 22

Prompt Design at Scale: How Format, Instruction Count, and Context Length Shape Instruction Adherence and Hallucination in Large Language Models

Practitioners make three prompt-design decisions with almost no controlled evidence behind them: how to format instructions and context (markdown, plain text, prose, or tabular), how many simultaneous instructions a system prompt can carry before compliance degrades, and how much context a model can hold before recall and honesty degrade. We report two controlled experiments crossing all three factors on one held, contamination-free synthetic corpus (the "Book of Veyra," 8,780 uniquely-named entities, deterministically regenerable from a fixed seed), evaluated across five models. Experiment 1 (960 calls/model) measures instruction-following decay as rule count N grows from 10 to 160, crossed with four formats and system-prompt vs. user-turn placement. Perfect-response rate collapses to zero by N=80 for every model, format, and placement. Placement produces effects at least as large as format at N=160 in most models, but the direction is model-specific. No model shows a reliable markdown advantage; one 35B model favors plain text instead. Experiment 2 (5,520 calls/model) measures recall accuracy, false-premise sycophancy, and absent-fact fabrication across a 2k-to-512k-token context ladder in the same four formats. Recall stays near ceiling through 64-128k tokens, then degrades sharply and format-dependently: one model's accuracy spread reaches 48 points at 128k tokens. Fabrication never occurs (0/5,760 probes), and sycophancy stays negligible (<=8.3%). What rises sharply near each model's context ceiling is outright refusal to answer (0% to 79-90%), distinct from sycophancy or fabrication. Neither pre-registered format ordering holds, and token overhead (+22% to +37% over plain text) further changes which format is preferable where accuracy spread is genuine. We release the full harness, corpus generator, and raw results (VeyraBench): https://github.com/iNetanel/veyrabench

  • 1 authors
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Jul 20

Quarks to Cosmos: Particles and Plasma in Cosmological evolution

We describe in the context of the particle physics (PP) standard model (SM) `PP-SM' the understanding of the primordial properties and composition of the Universe in the temperature range 130GeV>T>20keV. The Universe evolution is described using FLRW cosmology. We present a global view on particle content across time and describe the different evolution eras using deceleration parameter q. We follow the arrow of time in the expanding and cooling Universe: After the PP-SM heavies (t, h, W, Z) diminish in abundance below Tsimeq 50GeV, the PP-SM plasma in the Universe is governed by the strongly interacting Quark-Gluon content. Once the temperature drops below Tsimeq 150MeV, quarks and gluons hadronize into strongly interacting matter particles. Rapid disappearance of baryonic antimatter completes at T_B=38.2MeV. We study the ensuing disappearance of strangeness and mesons in general. We show that the different eras defined by particle populations are barely separated from each other with abundance of muons fading out just prior to T=O(2.5)MeV, the era of emergence of the free-streaming neutrinos. We discuss the two relevant fundamental constants controlling the decoupling of neutrinos. We subsequently follow the primordial Universe as it passes through the hot dense electron-positron plasma epoch. The high density of positron antimatter disappears near T=20.3keV: Nuclear reactions occur in the presence of a highly mobile and relatively strongly interacting electron-positron plasma phase. We apply plasma theory methods to describe the strong screening effects between heavy dust particle (nucleons). We analyze the paramagnetic characteristics of the electron-positron plasma when exposed to an external primordial magnetic field.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 26, 2024

Benchmarking API Drift in LLM-Generated Quantum Code Across Successive SDK Versions

Large language models can generate plausible quantum code, but it is unclear whether they can reliably target the specific software development kit (SDK) version requested by the user. We study this problem as API drift and introduce quantum-api-drift, a benchmark for measuring version fidelity, defined here as execution success on the requested SDK version, cross-version compatibility, failure modes, and documentation-guided repair in LLM-generated quantum SDK code. We instantiate the benchmark with Qiskit, a representative quantum SDK that underwent substantial interface changes across v0.43, v1.3, and v2.0. We evaluate 17 models on 50 tasks with 3 samples per prompt, yielding 450 generated samples and 1,350 executions per model. Sixteen models are tested in a matched REST API setting with a 1024-token output cap, while GPT-5.4 (Codex CLI) is reported separately as a reference configuration. Across the 16 matched REST models, diagonal Pass@1 ranges from 0.02 to 0.85. Claude Opus 4.7 is strongest on v0.43 and v2.0, while Grok 4.20 is strongest on v1.3 at 0.513. Error profiles differ systematically by model strength: weaker models fail mainly with broken imports, while stronger models more often reach deprecation-level failures. Documentation-guided repair succeeds for 0.19 to 0.59 of repair attempts overall and is consistently much more effective for migration to v2.0 than to v1.3. The benchmark artifacts are publicly available at https://github.com/arasyi/quantum-api-drift. These results show that version alignment is a distinct evaluation axis for quantum code generation and that API drift remains only partly recoverable even with migration guidance.

  • 2 authors
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Jul 4

Violation and Restoration of Probability Positivity in Perturbative Quantum Field Theory: From Quantum Mechanics to Quantum Chromodynamics

In quantum mechanics the modulus square of the wave function is the probability of an event --- positivity is self-evident. Quantum field theory corresponds to quantum mechanics one-to-one: the wave function corresponds to the matrix element, so the probability of a process should be the modulus square of the matrix element, positive by construction. In the founding era of perturbative quantum field theory, however, Feynman, Schwinger and Tomonaga treated inclusive processes in quantum electrodynamics, where the truncation of the squared amplitude was forced by infrared cancellations and rendered harmless by the small coupling αsimeq1/137. Carried over to exclusive processes in quantum chromodynamics, where the coupling is large, this practice produced negative decay and production rates already at NLO, persisting at NNLO. We point out that for exclusive processes, whose initial and final states are colorless for QCD and electrically neutral for QED, the infrared divergences cancel amplitude by amplitude and the KLN constraint is absent, so the complete modulus square of the truncated amplitude is the proper, manifestly positive definition of the probability. We formulate amplitude-level NRQCD factorization as the systematic prescription that restores positivity, show that every amplitude-level truncated observable admits the effective representation Γ^{amp}=Γ_{LO}bigl|1+α_sπ(c_1+ic_2)+α_s^2{π^2}(c_3+ic_4)bigr|^2, and demonstrate, with the complete NNLO QCD corrections to J/ψto3γ, Υto3γ, e^+e^-to J/ψ+J/ψ and the eight exclusive charmonium production channels at B factories, that the prescription yields positive and better-converging predictions.

  • 4 authors
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Oct 2

The Structure of Quantization Damage in LLMs: Why the Next Bit Should Be Spent Globally

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is widely used to reduce the cost of serving large language models (LLMs), but its accuracy cost is uneven and is often tuned per model. We study where quantization damage occurs and how to allocate a small additional precision budget. Using causal mixed-precision intervention as ground truth (raise each layer to 8-bit in turn and measure the accuracy it recovers) across 9 open-weight models in 4 architecture families, we test 3 intuitive hypotheses: that quantization damage lives in task circuits, where the model computes, or in weight statistics. None of them predicts which layers benefit from restored precision. Recovery is instead diffuse: for 8 of 9 models, recovering 75% of the gap takes roughly half the layers; the lone exception, Qwen3-8B, is sharply concentrated. At a matched precision budget, spending it globally on finer quantization granularity beats locally repairing the most recoverable layers for all 8 group-128-compatible models (all but OpenLLaMA, whose width rules out group-128), by 21-52 points, including the concentrated Qwen3-8B. We report 2 secondary findings: the residual is budget-limited (8-bit is near-lossless in our evaluation across RTN, GPTQ, and AWQ), and the location of peak recovery correlates with architecture within a family, though not across families. Within this budget setting, global granularity is a better default than selectively protecting critical layers. More broadly, cheap signals that correlate with quantization damage do not necessarily identify where restoring precision improves accuracy; this must be tested with causal intervention.

  • 2 authors
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Aug 31

Prediction Bottlenecks Don't Discover Causal Structure (But Here's What They Actually Do)

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

  • 4 authors
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May 8 1