Daily Papers

We present a novel framework for predicting next actions in soccer possessions by leveraging path signatures to encode their complex spatio-temporal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we do not rely on fixed historical windows and handcrafted features, but rather encode the entire recent possession, thereby avoiding the inclusion of potentially irrelevant or misleading historical information. Path signatures naturally capture the order and interaction of events, providing a mathematically grounded feature encoding for variable-length time series of irregular sampling frequencies without the necessity for manual feature engineering. Our proposed approach outperforms a transformer-based benchmark across various loss metrics and considerably reduces computational cost. Building on these results, we introduce a new possession evaluation metric based on well-established frameworks in soccer analytics, incorporating both predicted action type probabilities and action location. Our metric shows greater reliability than existing metrics in domain-specific comparisons. Finally, we validate our approach through a detailed analysis of the 2017/18 Premier League season and discuss further applications and future extensions.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable potential as human-like autonomous language agents to interact with real-world environments, especially for graphical user interface (GUI) automation. However, those GUI agents require comprehensive cognition ability including exhaustive perception and reliable action response. We propose Comprehensive Cognitive LLM Agent, CoCo-Agent, with two novel approaches, comprehensive environment perception (CEP) and conditional action prediction (CAP), to systematically improve the GUI automation performance. First, CEP facilitates the GUI perception through different aspects and granularity, including screenshots and complementary detailed layouts for the visual channel and historical actions for the textual channel. Second, CAP decomposes the action prediction into sub-problems: action type prediction and action target conditioned on the action type. With our technical design, our agent achieves new state-of-the-art performance on AITW and META-GUI benchmarks, showing promising abilities in realistic scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/xbmxb/AAgent.

Recent world-action models (WAMs) show that co-training policies with future prediction can provide physical priors for action generation. Building on the future-prediction ability of video models, many WAMs generate future videos and recover actions with inverse-dynamics models, or use these predicted videos as goal conditions for action generation. In both cases, the world model is trained mostly on successful demonstrations and has little reason to predict the consequences of bad actions. We introduce FACT, a causal World-Action Model that predicts future video and task progress conditioned on the executed action. This action-conditioned interface allows failure rollouts to supervise action consequences, turning bad actions into valid future targets rather than being discarded. Failure-aware training makes the progress predictor aware of both successful and failed action outcomes, which can optionally be used to score sampled action candidates at inference. Extensive experiments on simulation and real-world bimanual manipulation tasks show that FACT outperforms many existing baselines, improves as failure data are incorporated into training, and reduces success-biased future hallucination under bad actions. See more details at https://fact-wam.github.io/

We introduce PlausiVL, a large video-language model for anticipating action sequences that are plausible in the real-world. While significant efforts have been made towards anticipating future actions, prior approaches do not take into account the aspect of plausibility in an action sequence. To address this limitation, we explore the generative capability of a large video-language model in our work and further, develop the understanding of plausibility in an action sequence by introducing two objective functions, a counterfactual-based plausible action sequence learning loss and a long-horizon action repetition loss. We utilize temporal logical constraints as well as verb-noun action pair logical constraints to create implausible/counterfactual action sequences and use them to train the model with plausible action sequence learning loss. This loss helps the model to differentiate between plausible and not plausible action sequences and also helps the model to learn implicit temporal cues crucial for the task of action anticipation. The long-horizon action repetition loss puts a higher penalty on the actions that are more prone to repetition over a longer temporal window. With this penalization, the model is able to generate diverse, plausible action sequences. We evaluate our approach on two large-scale datasets, Ego4D and EPIC-Kitchens-100, and show improvements on the task of action anticipation.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

World Action Models (WAMs) are embodied predictive-action models that make a forecast of the future available to action. Recent WAMs repurpose large video generation models, and a parallel line relies on language or vision-language backbones without a video-generation core. This rapid expansion has blurred the boundary among broad world models, video generation models, action-grounded video world models, Vision-Language-Action policies, and WAMs. This survey gives the field a common account. It first clarifies these boundaries, then organizes existing works through two complementary views. The first view asks what each method is required to generate, spanning rendered futures, latent futures, and video-generation-free action reasoning. The second view decomposes each method by predictive substrate, backbone, action coupling, and deployment regime. This anatomy supports a unified discussion of interactability, causality, persistence, physical plausibility, and generalization, followed by data, evaluation, and open challenges. Across these axes, a consistent design pattern emerges: WAMs are not simply video generators with action heads, but predictive-action methods whose design choices trade representational richness against compute, memory, latency, and action-label cost. The field is moving toward methods that generate less of the future while preserving what control requires. The survey homepage is available at https://world-action-models.github.io/.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

World Action Models (WAMs) couple action generation with prediction of future states. Their effectiveness depends on whether future dynamics are modeled in a space that is both aligned with action generation and sufficiently geometry-aware to capture where and how actions change the scene. Existing WAMs typically satisfy only part of this requirement, relying on either perceptually heavy observation-space targets or auxiliary latent spaces that are not jointly structured for action relevance and geometry. We propose SG-WAM, a self-guided framework that learns geometry-aware action-conditioned dynamics directly in the policy-derived representation space. SG-WAM introduces learnable dynamics tokens and a Self-Guided World Predictor that forecasts their future latent states conditioned on intervening robot actions. Prediction targets are generated by an exponential moving average copy of the same policy backbone, providing stable supervision within the representation family used by the action expert. Geometric supervision further structures the policy image-token representations, providing spatially grounded context for the dynamics tokens and yielding a future-alignment space that is both action-relevant and geometry-aware. Latent future prediction, geometric grounding, and flow-matching action generation are jointly optimized end-to-end in a unified framework. Built on a 0.9B model without large-scale embodied pretraining, SG-WAM achieves 98.5% average success on LIBERO and 73% on LIBERO-Plus, while outperforming strong baselines in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution real-world evaluations.

We propose JFAA, a JEPA-based Future Action Anticipation method for the EPIC-KITCHENS-100 (EK-100) Action Anticipation task. Inspired by the representation learning and future prediction ability of V-JEPA 2.1, JFAA uses a frozen encoder and predictor to extract observed context features and near-future latent tokens. A lightweight attentive probe is then trained to predict verb, noun, and action logits with separate task queries. To improve robustness, we further build a field-aware ensemble over selected epoch-level predictions, allowing each output field to benefit from its most reliable candidates. Experimental results on the official challenge server show that JFAA achieves first place in the EgoVis 2026 EK-100 Action Anticipation Challenge. Our code will be released at https://github.com/CorrineQiu/JFAA.

Recent works in video prediction have mainly focused on passive forecasting and low-level action-conditional prediction, which sidesteps the learning of interaction between agents and objects. We introduce the task of semantic action-conditional video prediction, which uses semantic action labels to describe those interactions and can be regarded as an inverse problem of action recognition. The challenge of this new task primarily lies in how to effectively inform the model of semantic action information. Inspired by the idea of Mixture of Experts, we embody each abstract label by a structured combination of various visual concept learners and propose a novel video prediction model, Modular Action Concept Network (MAC). Our method is evaluated on two newly designed synthetic datasets, CLEVR-Building-Blocks and Sapien-Kitchen, and one real-world dataset called Tower-Creation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAC can correctly condition on given instructions and generate corresponding future frames without need of bounding boxes. We further show that the trained model can make out-of-distribution generalization, be quickly adapted to new object categories and exploit its learnt features for object detection, showing the progression towards higher-level cognitive abilities. More visualizations can be found at http://www.pair.toronto.edu/mac/.

World Action Models (WAMs) learn action-relevant representations by predicting how the observed world will evolve. Most existing WAMs define this future in RGB space, where task-relevant state transitions are entangled with nuisance variations in texture, illumination, background, and viewpoint. We argue that WAMs should explicitly predict action-relevant future state rather than relying on RGB prediction alone. We introduce DreamWAM, which reformulates future prediction as structured world modeling beyond RGB, representing future states through complementary views of appearance, motion, geometry, and semantics. During training, DreamWAM combines joint latent denoising of RGB and motion with lightweight gated residual branches for geometry and semantics. Shared attention between VideoDiT and ActionDiT allows the action branch to learn from these future-state predictions, while all beyond-RGB supervision branches are disabled at inference and deployment remains RGB-only. Across both no-rollout and joint video-action inference, DreamWAM consistently improves the matched RGB-only baselines on LIBERO, from 97.30\% to 98.40\% and from 98.00\% to 98.90\%, respectively. The gains become larger under unseen LIBERO-Plus perturbations, from 51.36\% to 63.44\% and from 69.16\% to 75.47\%. The same robustness extends to real-world manipulation, where DreamWAM attains an average success rate of 74.4\% across unseen changes in lighting, background, and object layout, compared with 55.6\% for Fast-WAM-Joint. These results show that robust world-action learning depends not only on predicting the future, but on representing it in a form that matters for action. The code and models are publicly released at https://github.com/hustvl/DreamWAM.

World Action Models (WAMs) couple future visual prediction with robot action generation, enabling policies to model how the physical world evolves during interaction. Existing WAMs differ in how predictive dynamics are exposed to the action pathway. Explicit-future WAMs provide direct access to predicted scene evolution, but incur substantial inference costs from iterative video denoising. In contrast, direct-policy WAMs efficiently predict actions from the current observation but lack an explicit inference-time interface for exposing predictive dynamics to the Action DiT. To bridge this gap, we propose ForeWAM, a dynamics-conditioned direct-policy WAM that provides predictive context for action generation without decoding future videos. At its core, Future-KV performs a single Video DiT prefill over the current visual latent and stochastic future slots, and reuses the resulting layer-wise key-value states throughout action denoising. We further introduce dynamics registers supervised by a frozen latent action teacher, encouraging the implicit future states to capture interaction-induced transitions such as object motion, contact changes, and task progress. Ground-truth future observations and the teacher are used only during training; deployment requires neither and performs no future video generation. Without embodied robot data pretraining, the standard and accelerated variants of ForeWAM achieve average success rates of 96.7% and 96.9% on LIBERO, respectively. The standard variant further achieves 61.6% success on LIBERO-Plus. These results demonstrate that direct-policy WAMs can retain efficient action prediction while exposing predictive dynamics to the action pathway without explicitly generating future observations.

Humans are known to have an internal "world model" that enables us to carry out action planning based on world states. AI agents need to have such a world model for action planning as well. It is not clear how current AI models, especially generative models, are able to learn such world models and carry out procedural planning in diverse environments. We introduce WorldPrediction, a video-based benchmark for evaluating world modeling and procedural planning capabilities of different AI models. In contrast to prior benchmarks that focus primarily on low-level world modeling and robotic motion planning, WorldPrediction is the first benchmark that emphasizes actions with temporal and semantic abstraction. Given initial and final world states, the task is to distinguish the proper action (WorldPrediction-WM) or the properly ordered sequence of actions (WorldPrediction-PP) from a set of counterfactual distractors. This discriminative task setup enable us to evaluate different types of world models and planners and realize a thorough comparison across different hypothesis. The benchmark represents states and actions using visual observations. In order to prevent models from exploiting low-level continuity cues in background scenes, we provide "action equivalents" - identical actions observed in different contexts - as candidates for selection. This benchmark is grounded in a formal framework of partially observable semi-MDP, ensuring better reliability and robustness of the evaluation. We conduct extensive human filtering and validation on our benchmark and show that current frontier models barely achieve 57% accuracy on WorldPrediction-WM and 38% on WorldPrediction-PP whereas humans are able to solve both tasks perfectly.

Leveraging future observation modeling to facilitate action generation presents a promising avenue for enhancing the capabilities of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models. However, existing approaches struggle to strike a balance between maintaining efficient, predictable future representations and preserving sufficient fine-grained information to guide precise action generation. To address this limitation, we propose WoG (World Guidance), a framework that maps future observations into compact conditions by injecting them into the action inference pipeline. The VLA is then trained to simultaneously predict these compressed conditions alongside future actions, thereby achieving effective world modeling within the condition space for action inference. We demonstrate that modeling and predicting this condition space not only facilitates fine-grained action generation but also exhibits superior generalization capabilities. Moreover, it learns effectively from substantial human manipulation videos. Extensive experiments across both simulation and real-world environments validate that our method significantly outperforms existing methods based on future prediction. Project page is available at: https://selen-suyue.github.io/WoGNet/

Visual-Language-Action models (VLAs) have advanced generalist robot control by mapping multimodal observations and language instructions directly to actions, but sparse action supervision often encourages shortcut mappings rather than representations of dynamics, contact, and task progress. Recent world-action models introduce future prediction through video rollouts, yet pixel-space prediction is a costly and indirect substrate for control, as it may model visual details irrelevant to action generation and introduces substantial training or inference overhead. We present Being-H0.7, a latent world-action model that brings future-aware reasoning into VLA-style policies without generating future frames. Being-H0.7 inserts learnable latent queries between perception and action as a compact reasoning interface, and trains them with a future-informed dual-branch design: a deployable prior branch infers latent states from the current context, while a training-only posterior branch replaces the queries with embeddings from future observations. Jointly aligning the two branches at the latent reasoning space leads the prior branch to reason future-aware, action-useful structure from current observations alone. At inference, Being-H0.7 discards the posterior branch and performs no visual rollout. Experiments across six simulation benchmarks and diverse real-world tasks show that Being-H0.7 achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performance, combining the predictive benefits of world models with the efficiency and deployability of direct VLA policies.

World action models jointly predict future video and action during training, raising an open question about what role the future-prediction branch actually plays. A recent finding shows that this branch can be removed at inference with little to no loss on common manipulation benchmarks, suggesting that future information may act merely as a regularizer on the shared visual backbone. We propose instead that joint training induces an action-conditioned correction that privileged future observations impose on action denoising, and that current-only policies capture this correction only partially. Making the account precise, we formulate privileged foresight as a residual in the action-denoising direction -- the difference between what a model predicts given the true future and what it predicts given only the current frame -- and introduce Privileged Foresight Distillation (PFD), which transfers this residual from a training-time teacher into a small adapter on a current-only student. The teacher and student share the same backbone and differ only in the attention mask over video tokens; future video is never generated at inference. Controlled experiments verify that this gain reflects a genuine future-conditioned correction rather than a side effect of capacity or regularization. Empirically, PFD achieves consistent improvements on LIBERO and RoboTwin manipulation benchmarks while preserving the current-only inference interface at negligible added latency. This view reframes the role of future information in world action models: not as a target to predict, nor as a regularizer to absorb, but as a compressible correction to be distilled.

World-action models (WAMs) predict the future to act better, but nearly all of them predict only RGB latents, trained purely for pixel reconstruction, with no explicit signal for the 3D geometry or object semantics manipulation needs. We find a surprising free lunch: the same frozen video-generation VAE that encodes RGB also encodes 3D pointmaps almost losslessly, with no pointmap-specific training at all. This lets us supervise Flex-π, a 6B-parameter WAM, on 3D geometry and object-centric DINO semantics alongside RGB, at no cost in new sensors, new pre-training, or inference latency. Every visual signal is projected into this shared latent space and denoised jointly with actions inside a Mixture-of-Transformers backbone; per-stream dropout with cross-modality forcing then lets a single trained checkpoint run on any subset of these streams, from a fast action-only mode to full joint generation. The result is a policy that is exceptionally demonstration-efficient and generalizes well, beating the strongest baselines by up to 2-7times on dexterous, precise, real-world bimanual manipulation tasks both in and out of distribution, all while running faster than π_{0.5}. Our project website: https://flex-pi.github.io/

Recent advances in vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown promise in integrating image generation with action prediction to improve generalization and reasoning in robot manipulation. However, existing methods are limited to challenging image-based forecasting, which suffers from redundant information and lacks comprehensive and critical world knowledge, including dynamic, spatial and semantic information. To address these limitations, we propose DreamVLA, a novel VLA framework that integrates comprehensive world knowledge forecasting to enable inverse dynamics modeling, thereby establishing a perception-prediction-action loop for manipulation tasks. Specifically, DreamVLA introduces a dynamic-region-guided world knowledge prediction, integrated with the spatial and semantic cues, which provide compact yet comprehensive representations for action planning. This design aligns with how humans interact with the world by first forming abstract multimodal reasoning chains before acting. To mitigate interference among the dynamic, spatial and semantic information during training, we adopt a block-wise structured attention mechanism that masks their mutual attention, preventing information leakage and keeping each representation clean and disentangled. Moreover, to model the conditional distribution over future actions, we employ a diffusion-based transformer that disentangles action representations from shared latent features. Extensive experiments on both real-world and simulation environments demonstrate that DreamVLA achieves 76.7% success rate on real robot tasks and 4.44 average length on the CALVIN ABC-D benchmarks.

Long-term action anticipation (LTA) aims to predict an ordered sequence of future verb-noun actions from a partially observed video. While this task serves as the foundation for embodied intelligence, anticipating physically feasible long-term actions remains a critical challenge. Existing methods, which operate in an open-loop manner, often hallucinate non-existent objects, violate object affordances, or disregard object states, as they lack explicit mechanisms to verify action feasibility against the physical environment. To address this, we propose FactCheck, a novel multi-agent collaboration framework that improves feasibility through a closed-loop "Observe-Plan-Verify" mechanism. FactCheck decomposes the complex LTA task into specialized roles: an Observer that recognizes historical actions from video observations and constructs a dual-form structured memory, comprising a History Action Abstract that captures high-level human intentions and environmental status, and a History Action Graph that encodes object states and temporal dependencies; a Planner that generates draft future actions conditioned on both low-level historical actions and high-level History Action Abstract; and a Verifier that rigorously validates the draft against the History Action Graph and refines infeasible actions. Extensive experiments on the EPIC-Kitchens-55 and EGTEA Gaze+ benchmarks demonstrate that FactCheck consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Our work establishes a new paradigm for feasibility-aware long-term action anticipation, effectively closing the loop of action recognition, action prediction and action verification.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers capable of mapping visual observations and natural language instructions to continuous action sequences. However, VLAs provide no calibrated measure of confidence in their action predictions, thus limiting their reliability in real-world settings where uncertainty and failures must be anticipated. To address this problem we introduce ReconVLA, a reliable conformal model that produces uncertainty-guided and failure-aware control signals. Concretely, our approach applies conformal prediction directly to the action token outputs of pretrained VLA policies, yielding calibrated uncertainty estimates that correlate with execution quality and task success. Furthermore, we extend conformal prediction to the robot state space to detect outliers or unsafe states before failures occur, providing a simple yet effective failure detection mechanism that complements the action-level uncertainty. We evaluate ReconVLA in both simulation and real robot experiments across diverse manipulation tasks. Our results show that conformalized action predictions consistently improve failure anticipation, reduce catastrophic errors, and provide a calibrated measure of confidence without retraining or modifying the underlying VLA.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

Recent advances in diffusion transformers have empowered video generation models to generate high-quality video clips from texts or images. However, world models with the ability to predict long-horizon futures from past observations and actions remain underexplored, especially for general-purpose scenarios and various forms of actions. To bridge this gap, we introduce Astra, an interactive general world model that generates real-world futures for diverse scenarios (e.g., autonomous driving, robot grasping) with precise action interactions (e.g., camera motion, robot action). We propose an autoregressive denoising architecture and use temporal causal attention to aggregate past observations and support streaming outputs. We use a noise-augmented history memory to avoid over-reliance on past frames to balance responsiveness with temporal coherence. For precise action control, we introduce an action-aware adapter that directly injects action signals into the denoising process. We further develop a mixture of action experts that dynamically route heterogeneous action modalities, enhancing versatility across diverse real-world tasks such as exploration, manipulation, and camera control. Astra achieves interactive, consistent, and general long-term video prediction and supports various forms of interactions. Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate the improvements of Astra in fidelity, long-range prediction, and action alignment over existing state-of-the-art world models.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

Egocentric action anticipation consists in predicting a future action the camera wearer will perform from egocentric video. While the task has recently attracted the attention of the research community, current approaches assume that the input videos are "trimmed", meaning that a short video sequence is sampled a fixed time before the beginning of the action. We argue that, despite the recent advances in the field, trimmed action anticipation has a limited applicability in real-world scenarios where it is important to deal with "untrimmed" video inputs and it cannot be assumed that the exact moment in which the action will begin is known at test time. To overcome such limitations, we propose an untrimmed action anticipation task, which, similarly to temporal action detection, assumes that the input video is untrimmed at test time, while still requiring predictions to be made before the actions actually take place. We design an evaluation procedure for methods designed to address this novel task, and compare several baselines on the EPIC-KITCHENS-100 dataset. Experiments show that the performance of current models designed for trimmed action anticipation is very limited and more research on this task is required.

Confidence estimation for Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models is essential for robots to perform manipulation tasks in the open world, providing crucial signals for risk-sensitive decision-making and failure anticipation. Existing confidence estimation methods typically rely on ensemble-based paradigms or action-token probabilities to predict the likelihood of task success. However, they still encounter challenges in computational efficiency and cross-architecture generalizability. These methods usually require repeated sampling, leading to inference inefficiency, and are restricted to VLA models with discrete action outputs, making them difficult to apply to continuous action spaces. To address this issue, we propose VLAConf, a one-class discriminative confidence framework. By leveraging frozen pretrained VLA internal representations, VLAConf directly estimates step-wise anomaly scores in a single forward pass using a lightweight confidence head, thereby eliminating the overhead of exhaustive resampling. We additionally use step-conditioned modeling to encode rollout-phase information along the manipulation trajectory. Experiments on the LIBERO benchmark demonstrate that VLAConf significantly improves the quality of the confidence signal constructed for post-hoc calibration, outperforming existing baselines by a large margin in inference efficiency. The effectiveness of VLAConf is further validated in real-robot experiments. To access the source code and supplementary videos, visit https://sites.google.com/view/vlaconf.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Anticipating actions before they are executed is crucial for a wide range of practical applications, including autonomous driving and robotics. In this paper, we study the egocentric action anticipation task, which predicts future action seconds before it is performed for egocentric videos. Previous approaches focus on summarizing the observed content and directly predicting future action based on past observations. We believe it would benefit the action anticipation if we could mine some cues to compensate for the missing information of the unobserved frames. We then propose to decompose the action anticipation into a series of future feature predictions. We imagine how the visual feature changes in the near future and then predicts future action labels based on these imagined representations. Differently, our ImagineRNN is optimized in a contrastive learning way instead of feature regression. We utilize a proxy task to train the ImagineRNN, i.e., selecting the correct future states from distractors. We further improve ImagineRNN by residual anticipation, i.e., changing its target to predicting the feature difference of adjacent frames instead of the frame content. This promotes the network to focus on our target, i.e., the future action, as the difference between adjacent frame features is more important for forecasting the future. Extensive experiments on two large-scale egocentric action datasets validate the effectiveness of our method. Our method significantly outperforms previous methods on both the seen test set and the unseen test set of the EPIC Kitchens Action Anticipation Challenge.

A key challenge with procedure planning in instructional videos lies in how to handle a large decision space consisting of a multitude of action types that belong to various tasks. To understand real-world video content, an AI agent must proficiently discern these action types (e.g., pour milk, pour water, open lid, close lid, etc.) based on brief visual observation. Moreover, it must adeptly capture the intricate semantic relation of the action types and task goals, along with the variable action sequences. Recently, notable progress has been made via the integration of diffusion models and visual representation learning to address the challenge. However, existing models employ rudimentary mechanisms to utilize task information to manage the decision space. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a simple yet effective enhancement - a masked diffusion model. The introduced mask acts akin to a task-oriented attention filter, enabling the diffusion/denoising process to concentrate on a subset of action types. Furthermore, to bolster the accuracy of task classification, we harness more potent visual representation learning techniques. In particular, we learn a joint visual-text embedding, where a text embedding is generated by prompting a pre-trained vision-language model to focus on human actions. We evaluate the method on three public datasets and achieve state-of-the-art performance on multiple metrics. Code is available at https://github.com/ffzzy840304/Masked-PDPP.

Vision--language--action (VLA) policies are trained to imitate actions; their loss never asks them to estimate reward, progress, or future success. Their frozen representations nevertheless carry such information, and it can be read out and used to guide action choice without retraining the policy. From mixed successful and failed manipulation trajectories on LIBERO-Goal, we recover Monte-Carlo outcome targets using lightweight linear probes on frozen features. The targets are consistently predictable from OpenVLA, Pi0.5, DINOv2, and CLIP features, and substantially less so from baselines built on progress, time-to-go, task identity, or proprioception. To rule out task and temporal shortcuts, we evaluate the probes under same-task, same-timestep matched comparisons: Pi0.5 probes still reach roughly 92% pairwise ordering accuracy, while label-shuffled controls stay at chance. Used as a test-time selector over sampled Pi0.5 action prefixes, the same probe turns this offline finding into behavior: on push-plate, success rises from 26.7% under greedy decoding to 44.3%, with a second positive case on wine-rack. The gains are not universal and require additional inference compute, but the underlying finding is clean: frozen VLAs already encode information about success that their imitation objective never explicitly demands.

Imitation learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm for learning visuomotor policies, but its generalisation and stability are limited by the scale and quality of demonstration data needed. A promising direction is to leverage more abundant but heterogeneous data sources, which differ in action space and often lack action labels altogether. Existing co-training approaches that combine heterogeneous data sources rely on heuristic and hand-engineered alignment techniques. In contrast, we argue that action representations should be grounded in prediction: actions that produce the same effect on the environment should share the same representation, regardless of their sources. To this end, we instantiate this principle by using a grounded latent-action world model (GLAM), a pair of generative models with a shared latent action space across data sources that is grounded by predicting future observations consistently across sources. This latent action space is used to train downstream behavioural cloning (BC) policies which map observations to latent actions and decode them back to robot actions, providing a paradigm for learning from heterogeneous data. Empirically, we demonstrate that GLAM successfully learns an aligned latent action space that facilitates action transfer across data sources with and without action labels. Across five manipulation tasks in simulation and in the real world, GLAM-aligned policies significantly outperform BC baselines and prior latent-action methods, achieving an average of +48% improvement in task success rate with the same data-scarce setting. Videos and code are available at https://viccccciv.github.io/glam/.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

A key component of model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is a dynamics model that predicts the outcomes of actions. Errors in this predictive model can degrade the performance of model-based controllers, and complex Markov decision processes (MDPs) can present exceptionally difficult prediction problems. To mitigate this issue, we propose predictable MDP abstraction (PMA): instead of training a predictive model on the original MDP, we train a model on a transformed MDP with a learned action space that only permits predictable, easy-to-model actions, while covering the original state-action space as much as possible. As a result, model learning becomes easier and more accurate, which allows robust, stable model-based planning or model-based RL. This transformation is learned in an unsupervised manner, before any task is specified by the user. Downstream tasks can then be solved with model-based control in a zero-shot fashion, without additional environment interactions. We theoretically analyze PMA and empirically demonstrate that PMA leads to significant improvements over prior unsupervised model-based RL approaches in a range of benchmark environments. Our code and videos are available at https://seohong.me/projects/pma/

Recent World Action Models (WAMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in embodied decision-making. However, whether their effectiveness stems from explicit future imagination during inference or representation learning induced by predictive training remains an open question. Emerging evidence suggests the primary advantage lies in learning robust latent representations rather than generating future observations at test time. Nevertheless, existing WAMs mainly rely on RGB-based future prediction, which provides limited structural and spatial understanding of complex environments. To address this, we propose a structured world modeling framework that enhances latent representations through geometric and semantic supervision. Alongside future RGB prediction, our model introduces two auxiliary prediction branches for future geometry and semantic representations, enabling it to jointly capture scene dynamics, spatial geometry, and semantic context within a unified latent space. Crucially, our approach preserves efficient inference by avoiding explicit future rollout or video generation at test time. Extensive experiments show that incorporating structured world supervision consistently improves action prediction accuracy, scene understanding, and robustness under challenging embodied scenarios, highlighting its potential for advancing scalable and efficient WAMs.

Forward latent world models predict how actions change a scene, but recover actions for a desired change only through expensive test-time search. We introduce INTACT (INtent-To-ACTion), an end-to-end JEPA that turns action-labeled, reward-free trajectories into a deployable intent-to-action interface. Each transition supplies physical intent z_{t+1}-z_t, while a future goal supplies deployment intent sg(z_g)-z_t. The architecture is isomorphic between the local and goal motion-intent backbone-input graphs through an identical four-slot grammar and shared parameters, and between supported local and goal motion-intent families through action-law semantics induced by the same predictor rather than pointwise latent equality. INTACT also provides intact transfer from RGB evidence to action-effective latent intent coordinates and from intent families to their corresponding action-law families. Asymmetric endpoint gradients ground physical successors and fix future goals as anchors, joining representation learning and control without pointwise latent matching or globally linear dynamics. The resulting coordinates support a robust distributional action law: its conditional mean serves directly as a search-free policy, while sampling remains available for diversity or optional verification. On the four official LeWM tasks, one-epoch, zero-search models reach 85.78\%, 100.00\%, 97.67\%, and 97.89\% success. Optional local CEM centered on the Direct plan reaches 96.86\% macro success using 384 instead of 9,000 candidate sequences, reducing sampling by 23.44times while improving pure CEM by 16.00 points. One shared four-task encoder reaches 89.39\% E5 Direct macro and improves every task over jointly trained LeWM, while predicted--expert action-family kNN tracks Direct success at r=0.954. Direct inference takes 2.9--5.5 ms.

World Action Models (WAMs) have recently emerged as a promising paradigm for robotic manipulation by jointly predicting future visual observations and future actions. However, current WAMs typically execute a fixed number of predicted actions after each model inference, leaving the robot blind to whether the imagined future remains consistent with the actual physical rollout. In this work, we formulate adaptive WAM execution as a future-reality verification problem: the robot should execute longer when the WAM-predicted future remains reliable, and replan earlier when reality deviates from imagination. To this end, we propose Future Forward Dynamics Causal Attention (FFDC), a lightweight verifier that jointly reasons over predicted future actions, predicted visual dynamics, real observations, and language instructions to estimate whether the remaining action rollout can still be trusted. FFDC enables adaptive action chunk sizes as an emergent consequence of prediction-observation consistency, preserving the efficiency of long-horizon execution while restoring responsiveness in contact-rich or difficult phases. We further introduce Mixture-of-Horizon Training to improve long-horizon trajectory coverage for adaptive execution. Experiments on the RoboTwin benchmark and in the real world demonstrate that our method achieves a strong robustness-efficiency trade-off: on RoboTwin, it reduces WAM forward passes by 69.10% and execution time by 34.02%, while improving success rate by 2.54% over the short-chunk baseline; in real-world experiments, it improves success rate by 35%.

Stochastic human motion prediction (HMP) has generally been tackled with generative adversarial networks and variational autoencoders. Most prior works aim at predicting highly diverse movements in terms of the skeleton joints' dispersion. This has led to methods predicting fast and motion-divergent movements, which are often unrealistic and incoherent with past motion. Such methods also neglect contexts that need to anticipate diverse low-range behaviors, or actions, with subtle joint displacements. To address these issues, we present BeLFusion, a model that, for the first time, leverages latent diffusion models in HMP to sample from a latent space where behavior is disentangled from pose and motion. As a result, diversity is encouraged from a behavioral perspective. Thanks to our behavior coupler's ability to transfer sampled behavior to ongoing motion, BeLFusion's predictions display a variety of behaviors that are significantly more realistic than the state of the art. To support it, we introduce two metrics, the Area of the Cumulative Motion Distribution, and the Average Pairwise Distance Error, which are correlated to our definition of realism according to a qualitative study with 126 participants. Finally, we prove BeLFusion's generalization power in a new cross-dataset scenario for stochastic HMP.

Robotic manipulation requires anticipating how the environment evolves in response to actions, yet most existing systems lack this predictive capability, often resulting in errors and inefficiency. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) provide high-level guidance, they cannot explicitly forecast future states, and existing world models either predict only short horizons or produce spatially inconsistent frames. To address these challenges, we propose a framework for fast and predictive video-conditioned action. Our approach first selects and adapts a robust video generation model to ensure reliable future predictions, then applies adversarial distillation for fast, few-step video generation, and finally trains an action model that leverages both generated videos and real observations to correct spatial errors. Extensive experiments show that our method produces temporally coherent, spatially accurate video predictions that directly support precise manipulation, achieving significant improvements in embodiment consistency, spatial referring ability, and task completion over existing baselines. Codes & Models will be released.

Accurate prediction of human behavior is essential for robust and safe human-AI collaboration. However, existing approaches for modeling people are often data-hungry and brittle because they either make unrealistic assumptions about rationality or are too computationally demanding to adapt rapidly. Our key insight is that many everyday social interactions may follow predictable patterns; efficient "scripts" that minimize cognitive load for actors and observers, e.g., "wait for the green light, then go." We propose modeling these routines as behavioral programs instantiated in computer code rather than policies conditioned on beliefs and desires. We introduce ROTE, a novel algorithm that leverages both large language models (LLMs) for synthesizing a hypothesis space of behavioral programs, and probabilistic inference for reasoning about uncertainty over that space. We test ROTE in a suite of gridworld tasks and a large-scale embodied household simulator. ROTE predicts human and AI behaviors from sparse observations, outperforming competitive baselines -- including behavior cloning and LLM-based methods -- by as much as 50% in terms of in-sample accuracy and out-of-sample generalization. By treating action understanding as a program synthesis problem, ROTE opens a path for AI systems to efficiently and effectively predict human behavior in the real-world.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have achieved strong semantic generalization for embodied policy learning, yet they learn reactive observation-to-action mappings without explicitly modeling how the physical world evolves under intervention. A growing body of work addresses this limitation by integrating world models, predictive models of environment dynamics, into the action generation pipeline. We term this emerging paradigm World Action Models (WAMs): embodied foundation models that unify predictive state modeling with action generation, targeting a joint distribution over future states and actions rather than actions alone. However, the literature remains fragmented across architectures, learning objectives, and application scenarios, lacking a unified conceptual framework. We formally define WAMs and disambiguate them from related concepts, and trace the foundations and early integration of VLA and world model research that gave rise to this paradigm. We organize existing methods into a structured taxonomy of Cascaded and Joint WAMs, with further subdivision by generation modality, conditioning mechanism, and action decoding strategy. We systematically analyze the data ecosystem fueling WAMs development, spanning robot teleoperation, portable human demonstrations, simulation, and internet-scale egocentric video, and synthesize emerging evaluation protocols organized around visual fidelity, physical commonsense, and action plausibility. Overall, this survey provides the first systematic account of the WAMs landscape, clarifies key architectural paradigms and their trade-offs, and identifies open challenges and future opportunities for this rapidly evolving field.

We present a new general learning approach for action recognition, Prompt Learning for Action Recognition (PLAR), which leverages the strengths of prompt learning to guide the learning process. Our approach is designed to predict the action label by helping the models focus on the descriptions or instructions associated with actions in the input videos. Our formulation uses various prompts, including optical flow, large vision models, and learnable prompts to improve the recognition performance. Moreover, we propose a learnable prompt method that learns to dynamically generate prompts from a pool of prompt experts under different inputs. By sharing the same objective, our proposed PLAR can optimize prompts that guide the model's predictions while explicitly learning input-invariant (prompt experts pool) and input-specific (data-dependent) prompt knowledge. We evaluate our approach on datasets consisting of both ground camera videos and aerial videos, and scenes with single-agent and multi-agent actions. In practice, we observe a 3.17-10.2% accuracy improvement on the aerial multi-agent dataset, Okutamam and 0.8-2.6% improvement on the ground camera single-agent dataset, Something Something V2. We plan to release our code on the WWW.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong potential in generating 'believable human-like' behavior in web environments. Prior work has explored augmenting training data with LLM-synthesized rationales and applying supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to enhance reasoning ability, which in turn can improve downstream action prediction. However, the performance of such approaches remains inherently bounded by the reasoning capabilities of the model used to generate the rationales. In this paper, we introduce Shop-R1, a novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework aimed at enhancing the reasoning ability of LLMs for simulation of real human behavior in online shopping environments Specifically, Shop-R1 decomposes the human behavior simulation task into two stages: rationale generation and action prediction, each guided by distinct reward signals. For rationale generation, we leverage internal model signals (e.g., logit distributions) to guide the reasoning process in a self-supervised manner. For action prediction, we propose a hierarchical reward structure with difficulty-aware scaling to prevent reward hacking and enable fine-grained reward assignment. This design evaluates both high-level action types and the correctness of fine-grained sub-action details (attributes and values), rewarding outputs proportionally to their difficulty. Experimental results show that our method achieves a relative improvement of over 65% compared to the baseline.

World-Action Models (WAM) initialized from pre-trained video generation backbones have demonstrated remarkable potential for robot policy learning. However, existing approaches face two critical bottlenecks that hinder performance and deployment. First, jointly reasoning over future visual dynamics and corresponding actions incurs substantial inference overhead. Second, joint modeling often entangles visual and motion representations, making motion prediction accuracy heavily dependent on the quality of future video forecasts. To address these issues, we introduce GigaWorld-Policy, an action-centered WAM that learns 2D pixel-action dynamics while enabling efficient action decoding, with optional video generation. Specifically, we formulate policy training into two coupled components: the model predicts future action sequences conditioned on the current observation, and simultaneously generates future videos conditioned on the predicted actions and the same observation. The policy is supervised by both action prediction and video generation, providing richer learning signals and encouraging physically plausible actions through visual-dynamics constraints. With a causal design that prevents future-video tokens from influencing action tokens, explicit future-video generation is optional at inference time, allowing faster action prediction during deployment. To support this paradigm, we curate a diverse, large-scale robot dataset to pre-train an action-centered video generation model, which is then adapted as the backbone for robot policy learning. Experimental results on real-world robotic platforms show that GigaWorld-Policy runs 9x faster than the leading WAM baseline, Motus, while improving task success rates by 7%. Moreover, compared with pi-0.5, GigaWorld-Policy improves performance by 95% on RoboTwin 2.0.

Addressing the discrepancies between predictions and actual outcomes often aids individuals in expanding their thought processes and engaging in reflection, thereby facilitating reasoning in the correct direction. In this paper, we introduce PreAct, an agent framework that integrates prediction with reasoning and action. Leveraging the information provided by predictions, a large language model (LLM) based agent can offer more diversified and strategically oriented reasoning, which in turn leads to more effective actions that help the agent complete complex tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that PreAct outperforms the ReAct approach in accomplishing complex tasks and that PreAct can be co-enhanced when combined with Reflexion methods. We prompt the model with different numbers of historical predictions and find that historical predictions have a sustained positive effect on LLM planning. The differences in single-step reasoning between PreAct and ReAct show that PreAct indeed offers advantages in terms of diversity and strategic directivity over ReAct.

Open-source native GUI agents still lag behind closed-source systems on long-horizon navigation tasks. This gap stems from two limitations: a shortage of high-quality, action-aligned reasoning data, and the direct adoption of generic post-training pipelines that overlook the unique challenges of GUI agents. We identify two fundamental issues in these pipelines: (i) standard SFT with CoT reasoning often hurts grounding, and (ii) step-wise RLVR-tyle training faces partial verifiability, where multiple actions can be correct but only a single demonstrated action is used for verification. This makes offline step-wise metrics weak predictors of online task success. In this work, we present GUI-Libra, a tailored training recipe that addresses these challenges. First, to mitigate the scarcity of action-aligned reasoning data, we introduce a data construction and filtering pipeline and release a curated 81K GUI reasoning dataset. Second, to reconcile reasoning with grounding, we propose action-aware SFT that mixes reasoning-then-action and direct-action data and reweights tokens to emphasize action and grounding. Third, to stabilize RL under partial verifiability, we identify the overlooked importance of KL regularization in RLVR and show that a KL trust region is critical for improving offline-to-online predictability; we further introduce success-adaptive scaling to downweight unreliable negative gradients. Across diverse web and mobile benchmarks, GUI-Libra consistently improves both step-wise accuracy and end-to-end task completion. Our results suggest that carefully designed post-training and data curation can unlock significantly stronger task-solving capabilities without costly online data collection. We release our dataset, code, and models to facilitate further research on data-efficient post-training for reasoning-capable GUI agents.

Recent advancements in vision-language models (VLMs) for common-sense reasoning have led to the development of vision-language-action (VLA) models, enabling robots to perform generalized manipulation. Although existing autoregressive VLA methods leverage large-scale pretrained knowledge, they disrupt the continuity of actions. Meanwhile, some VLA methods incorporate an additional diffusion head to predict continuous actions, relying solely on VLM-extracted features, which limits their reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we introduce HybridVLA, a unified framework that seamlessly integrates the strengths of both autoregressive and diffusion policies within a single large language model, rather than simply connecting them. To bridge the generation gap, a collaborative training recipe is proposed that injects the diffusion modeling directly into the next-token prediction. With this recipe, we find that these two forms of action prediction not only reinforce each other but also exhibit varying performance across different tasks. Therefore, we design a collaborative action ensemble mechanism that adaptively fuses these two predictions, leading to more robust control. In experiments, HybridVLA outperforms previous state-of-the-art VLA methods across various simulation and real-world tasks, including both single-arm and dual-arm robots, while demonstrating stable manipulation in previously unseen configurations.

World models predict future transitions from observations and actions. Existing works predominantly focus on image generation only. Visual feature-based world models, on the other hand, predict future visual features instead of raw video pixels, offering a promising alternative that is more efficient and less prone to hallucination. However, current feature-based approaches rely on direct regression, which leads to blurry or collapsed predictions in complex interactions, while generative modeling in high-dimensional feature spaces still remains challenging. In this work, we discover that a new type of latent action representation, which we refer to as *Residual Latent Action* (RLA), can be easily learned from DINO residuals. We also show that RLA is predictive, generalizable, and encodes temporal progression. Building on RLA, we propose *RLA World Model* (RLA-WM), which predicts RLA values via flow matching. RLA-WM outperforms both state-of-the-art feature-based and video-diffusion world models on simulation and real-world datasets, while being orders of magnitude faster than video diffusion. Furthermore, we develop two robot learning techniques that use RLA-WM to improve policy learning. The first one is a minimalist world action model with RLA that learns from actionless demonstration videos. The second one is the first visual RL framework trained entirely inside a world model learned from offline videos only, using a video-aligned reward and no online interactions or handcrafted rewards. Project page: https://mlzxy.github.io/rla-wm

Robotic manipulation requires models that generate executable actions while anticipating and evaluating their future consequences before physical execution. We present τ_0-World Model (τ_0-WM), a unified video-action world model that integrates policy learning, video prediction, and action evaluation within a single future-predictive framework. Built on a shared video diffusion backbone, τ_0-WM provides two complementary interfaces. First, a video action model jointly predicts future visual latents and continuous action chunks from multi-view observations, language instructions, and robot state. Second, an action-conditioned video simulator rolls out candidate action chunks into multi-view futures and predicts dense task-progress scores. The model is trained on approximately 27{,}300 hours of real-robot teleoperation, UMI-style interaction, egocentric human videos, and rollout or failure trajectories using modality-specific supervision masks. At inference time, τ_0-WM uses test-time computation to sample action candidates, rank them with re-denoising consistency, and invoke simulator-based rectification for low-quality candidates. On challenging long-horizon and fine-grained robotic manipulation tasks, τ_0-WM shows superior performance over other relevant baselines.

Scientific Deep Research (DR) agents answer user queries by synthesizing research papers into multi-section reports. User feedback can improve their utility, but existing protocols only score the final report, making it hard to study and learn which intermediate actions DR agents should take to improve reports. We collect DRACULA, the first dataset with user feedback on intermediate actions for DR. Over five weeks, nineteen expert CS researchers ask queries to a DR system that proposes actions (e.g., "Add a section on datasets"). Our users select actions they prefer, then judge whether an output report applied their selections successfully, yielding 8,103 action preferences and 5,230 execution judgments. After confirming a DR agent can execute DRACULA's actions, we study the predictability of user-preferred actions via simulation-how well LLMs predict the actions users select-a step toward learning to generate useful actions. We discover: (1) LLM judges initially struggle to predict action selections, but improve most when using a user's full selection history, rather than self-reported or extrapolated user context signals; (2) Users' selections for the same query differ based on unstated goals, bottlenecking simulation and motivating affordances that let users steer reports; and (3) Our simulation results inform an online intervention that generates new actions based on the user's past interactions, which users pick most often in follow-up studies. Overall, while work extensively studies execution, DRACULA reveals a key challenge is deciding which actions to execute in the first place. We open-source DRACULA's study design, user feedback, and simulation tasks to spur future work on action feedback for long-horizon agents.

Learning efficient representations for decision-making policies is a challenge in imitation learning (IL). Current IL methods require expert demonstrations, which are expensive to collect. Consequently, they often have underdeveloped world models. Self-supervised learning (SSL) offers an alternative by allowing models to learn from diverse, unlabeled data, including failures. However, SSL methods often operate in raw input space, making them inefficient. In this work, we propose ACT-JEPA, a novel architecture that integrates IL and SSL to enhance policy representations. We train a policy to predict (1) action sequences and (2) abstract observation sequences. The first objective uses action chunking to improve action prediction and reduce compounding errors. The second objective extends this idea of chunking by predicting abstract observation sequences. We utilize Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture to predict in abstract representation space, allowing the model to filter out irrelevant details, improve efficiency, and develop a robust world model. Our experiments show that ACT-JEPA improves the quality of representations by learning temporal environment dynamics. Additionally, the model's ability to predict abstract observation sequences results in representations that effectively generalize to action sequence prediction. ACT-JEPA performs on par with established baselines across a range of decision-making tasks.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

Generalization in robot manipulation is essential for deploying robots in open-world environments and advancing toward artificial general intelligence. While recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models leverage large pre-trained understanding models for perception and instruction following, their ability to generalize to novel tasks, objects, and settings remains limited. In this work, we present VideoVLA, a simple approach that explores the potential of transforming large video generation models into robotic VLA manipulators. Given a language instruction and an image, VideoVLA predicts an action sequence as well as the future visual outcomes. Built on a multi-modal Diffusion Transformer, VideoVLA jointly models video, language, and action modalities, using pre-trained video generative models for joint visual and action forecasting. Our experiments show that high-quality imagined futures correlate with reliable action predictions and task success, highlighting the importance of visual imagination in manipulation. VideoVLA demonstrates strong generalization, including imitating other embodiments' skills and handling novel objects. This dual-prediction strategy - forecasting both actions and their visual consequences - explores a paradigm shift in robot learning and unlocks generalization capabilities in manipulation systems.

Imitation learning (IL) with generative models, such as diffusion and flow matching, has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks. However, distribution shifts from unseen environments or compounding action errors can still cause unpredictable and unsafe behavior, leading to task failure. Early failure prediction during runtime is therefore essential for deploying robots in human-centered and safety-critical environments. We propose FIPER, a general framework for Failure Prediction at Runtime for generative IL policies that does not require failure data. FIPER identifies two key indicators of impending failure: (i) out-of-distribution (OOD) observations detected via random network distillation in the policy's embedding space, and (ii) high uncertainty in generated actions measured by a novel action-chunk entropy score. Both failure prediction scores are calibrated using a small set of successful rollouts via conformal prediction. A failure alarm is triggered when both indicators, aggregated over short time windows, exceed their thresholds. We evaluate FIPER across five simulation and real-world environments involving diverse failure modes. Our results demonstrate that FIPER better distinguishes actual failures from benign OOD situations and predicts failures more accurately and earlier than existing methods. We thus consider this work an important step towards more interpretable and safer generative robot policies. Code, data and videos are available at https://tum-lsy.github.io/fiper_website.

The human driver is no longer the only one concerned with the complexity of the driving scenarios. Autonomous vehicles (AV) are similarly becoming involved in the process. Nowadays, the development of AVs in urban places raises essential safety concerns for vulnerable road users (VRUs) such as pedestrians. Therefore, to make the roads safer, it is critical to classify and predict the pedestrians' future behavior. In this paper, we present a framework based on multiple variations of the Transformer models able to infer predict the pedestrian street-crossing decision-making based on the dynamics of its initiated trajectory. We showed that using solely bounding boxes as input features can outperform the previous state-of-the-art results by reaching a prediction accuracy of 91\% and an F1-score of 0.83 on the PIE dataset. In addition, we introduced a large-size simulated dataset (CP2A) using CARLA for action prediction. Our model has similarly reached high accuracy (91\%) and F1-score (0.91) on this dataset. Interestingly, we showed that pre-training our Transformer model on the CP2A dataset and then fine-tuning it on the PIE dataset is beneficial for the action prediction task. Finally, our model's results are successfully supported by the "human attention to bounding boxes" experiment which we created to test humans ability for pedestrian action prediction without the need for environmental context. The code for the dataset and the models is available at: https://github.com/linaashaji/Action_Anticipation

Embodied policies typically map current observations directly to actions, leaving candidate-action consequences implicit. World models provide predictive supervision, representations, or external simulation, but rarely let a policy inspect the imagined consequence of its own proposal before acting. We introduce ω-EVA, a latent interactive world model that realizes an Envision--Verify--Act loop for embodied action generation. Its three-stage framework learns action-conditioned latent dynamics, trains a language-conditioned flow policy on dynamics-aware visual representations, and feeds the policy's proposal back through the world model. A tri-branch refiner jointly reasons over the current state, proposal-conditioned future, and proposed action to produce the final action chunk. Because consequence reasoning remains in latent feature space, ω-EVA avoids generating future videos at inference. Evaluations across diverse single-arm, bimanual, long-horizon, and perturbed simulation settings show that the complete interaction pipeline consistently improves the proposal policy, while latent diagnostics indicate meaningful action-conditioned future structure. With approximately 1.2B parameters and no additional robot-data pretraining, ω-EVA demonstrates a compact and competitive performance--scale--data trade-off, making the world model an active action-feedback module rather than a passive predictor.

We consider the problem of predicting the future trajectory of scene agents from egocentric views obtained from a moving platform. This problem is important in a variety of domains, particularly for autonomous systems making reactive or strategic decisions in navigation. In an attempt to address this problem, we introduce TITAN (Trajectory Inference using Targeted Action priors Network), a new model that incorporates prior positions, actions, and context to forecast future trajectory of agents and future ego-motion. In the absence of an appropriate dataset for this task, we created the TITAN dataset that consists of 700 labeled video-clips (with odometry) captured from a moving vehicle on highly interactive urban traffic scenes in Tokyo. Our dataset includes 50 labels including vehicle states and actions, pedestrian age groups, and targeted pedestrian action attributes that are organized hierarchically corresponding to atomic, simple/complex-contextual, transportive, and communicative actions. To evaluate our model, we conducted extensive experiments on the TITAN dataset, revealing significant performance improvement against baselines and state-of-the-art algorithms. We also report promising results from our Agent Importance Mechanism (AIM), a module which provides insight into assessment of perceived risk by calculating the relative influence of each agent on the future ego-trajectory. The dataset is available at https://usa.honda-ri.com/titan

Standard vision-language-action (VLA) models rely on fitting statistical data priors, limiting their robust understanding of underlying physical dynamics. Reinforcement learning enhances physical grounding through exploration yet typically relies on external reward signals that remain isolated from the agent's internal states. World action models have emerged as a promising paradigm that integrates imagination and control to enable predictive planning. However, they rely on implicit context modeling, lacking explicit mechanisms for self-improvement. To solve these problems, we propose Self-Correcting VLA (SC-VLA), which achieve self-improvement by intrinsically guiding action refinement through sparse imagination. We first design sparse world imagination by integrating auxiliary predictive heads to forecast current task progress and future trajectory trends, thereby constraining the policy to encode short-term physical evolution. Then we introduce the online action refinement module to reshape progress-dependent dense rewards, adjusting trajectory orientation based on the predicted sparse future states. Evaluations on challenging robot manipulation tasks from simulation benchmarks and real-world settings demonstrate that SC-VLA achieve state-of-the-art performance, yielding the highest task throughput with 16% fewer steps and a 9% higher success rate than the best-performing baselines, alongside a 14% gain in real-world experiments. Code is available at https://github.com/Kisaragi0/SC-VLA.

This graduate textbook on machine learning tells a story of how patterns in data support predictions and consequential actions. Starting with the foundations of decision making, we cover representation, optimization, and generalization as the constituents of supervised learning. A chapter on datasets as benchmarks examines their histories and scientific bases. Self-contained introductions to causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning equip the reader with concepts and tools to reason about actions and their consequences. Throughout, the text discusses historical context and societal impact. We invite readers from all backgrounds; some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra suffices.

Identifying procedural errors online from egocentric videos is a critical yet challenging task across various domains, including manufacturing, healthcare, and skill-based training. The nature of such mistakes is inherently open-set, as unforeseen or novel errors may occur, necessitating robust detection systems that do not rely on prior examples of failure. Currently, however, no technique effectively detects open-set procedural mistakes online. We propose a dual branch architecture to address this problem in an online fashion: one branch continuously performs step recognition from the input egocentric video, while the other anticipates future steps based on the recognition module's output. Mistakes are detected as mismatches between the currently recognized action and the action predicted by the anticipation module. The recognition branch takes input frames, predicts the current action, and aggregates frame-level results into action tokens. The anticipation branch, specifically, leverages the solid pattern-matching capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict action tokens based on previously predicted ones. Given the online nature of the task, we also thoroughly benchmark the difficulties associated with per-frame evaluations, particularly the need for accurate and timely predictions in dynamic online scenarios. Extensive experiments on two procedural datasets demonstrate the challenges and opportunities of leveraging a dual-branch architecture for mistake detection, showcasing the effectiveness of our proposed approach. In a thorough evaluation including recognition and anticipation variants and state-of-the-art models, our method reveals its robustness and effectiveness in online applications.

Can we turn a video prediction model into a robot policy? Videos, including those of humans or teleoperated robots, capture rich physical interactions. However, most of them lack labeled actions, which limits their use in robot learning. We present Video Prediction for Robot Actions (ViPRA), a simple pretraining-finetuning framework that learns continuous robot control from these actionless videos. Instead of directly predicting actions, we train a video-language model to predict both future visual observations and motion-centric latent actions, which serve as intermediate representations of scene dynamics. We train these latent actions using perceptual losses and optical flow consistency to ensure they reflect physically grounded behavior. For downstream control, we introduce a chunked flow matching decoder that maps latent actions to robot-specific continuous action sequences, using only 100 to 200 teleoperated demonstrations. This approach avoids expensive action annotation, supports generalization across embodiments, and enables smooth, high-frequency continuous control upto 22 Hz via chunked action decoding. Unlike prior latent action works that treat pretraining as autoregressive policy learning, explicitly models both what changes and how. Our method outperforms strong baselines, with a 16% gain on the SIMPLER benchmark and a 13% improvement across real world manipulation tasks. We will release models and code at https://vipra-project.github.io

Agents powered by large language models have shown remarkable abilities in solving complex tasks. However, most agent systems remain reactive, limiting their effectiveness in scenarios requiring foresight and autonomous decision-making. In this paper, we tackle the challenge of developing proactive agents capable of anticipating and initiating tasks without explicit human instructions. We propose a novel data-driven approach for this problem. Firstly, we collect real-world human activities to generate proactive task predictions. These predictions are then labeled by human annotators as either accepted or rejected. The labeled data is used to train a reward model that simulates human judgment and serves as an automatic evaluator of the proactiveness of LLM agents. Building on this, we develop a comprehensive data generation pipeline to create a diverse dataset, ProactiveBench, containing 6,790 events. Finally, we demonstrate that fine-tuning models with the proposed ProactiveBench can significantly elicit the proactiveness of LLM agents. Experimental results show that our fine-tuned model achieves an F1-Score of 66.47% in proactively offering assistance, outperforming all open-source and close-source models. These results highlight the potential of our method in creating more proactive and effective agent systems, paving the way for future advancements in human-agent collaboration.

World Action Models (WAMs) generate actions together with predicted futures, offering a powerful interface for robot decision making. In contact-rich manipulation, however, visually plausible futures can be physically incomplete: insertion, assembly, search, and reorientation often depend on slip, jamming, contact normals, or small alignment errors that are weakly visible or hidden in RGB. A natural solution is to predict future tactile states, however, we identify tactile pollution, a failure mode where unconstrained tactile-token injection degrades video and action prediction by forcing a visual dynamics model to absorb sparse, local, event-driven contact signals. To address this, we propose Tactile-WAM, a touch-aware WAM with a Tactile Asymmetric Attention Mechanism (TAAM). TAAM combines a VideoClean mask, which blocks video-query access to tactile key/value tokens while preserving action-query access, with a touch-aware bias for action attention. The VideoClean mask protects visual prediction while keeping contact information available for action generation; the touch-aware bias is derived from predicted touch changes and modulates action attention to tactile tokens during denoising. On ManiFeel, Tactile-WAM improves the mean success rate by 38.9% overall and by 86% on contact-rich tasks.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

We present WorldVLA, an autoregressive action world model that unifies action and image understanding and generation. Our WorldVLA intergrates Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model and world model in one single framework. The world model predicts future images by leveraging both action and image understanding, with the purpose of learning the underlying physics of the environment to improve action generation. Meanwhile, the action model generates the subsequent actions based on image observations, aiding in visual understanding and in turn helps visual generation of the world model. We demonstrate that WorldVLA outperforms standalone action and world models, highlighting the mutual enhancement between the world model and the action model. In addition, we find that the performance of the action model deteriorates when generating sequences of actions in an autoregressive manner. This phenomenon can be attributed to the model's limited generalization capability for action prediction, leading to the propagation of errors from earlier actions to subsequent ones. To address this issue, we propose an attention mask strategy that selectively masks prior actions during the generation of the current action, which shows significant performance improvement in the action chunk generation task.

In task-oriented dialogue, a system often needs to follow a sequence of actions, called a workflow, that complies with a set of guidelines in order to complete a task. In this paper, we propose the novel problem of multi-step workflow action prediction, in which the system predicts multiple future workflow actions. Accurate prediction of multiple steps allows for multi-turn automation, which can free up time to focus on more complex tasks. We propose three modeling approaches that are simple to implement yet lead to more action automation: 1) fine-tuning on a training dataset, 2) few-shot in-context learning leveraging retrieval and large language model prompting, and 3) zero-shot graph traversal, which aggregates historical action sequences into a graph for prediction. We show that multi-step action prediction produces features that improve accuracy on downstream dialogue tasks like predicting task success, and can increase automation of steps by 20% without requiring as much feedback from a human overseeing the system.

Autonomous user interface (UI) agents aim to facilitate task automation by interacting with the user interface without manual intervention. Recent studies have investigated eliciting the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for effective engagement in diverse environments. To align with the input-output requirement of LLMs, existing approaches are developed under a sandbox setting where they rely on external tools and application-specific APIs to parse the environment into textual elements and interpret the predicted actions. Consequently, those approaches often grapple with inference inefficiency and error propagation risks. To mitigate the challenges, we introduce Auto-UI, a multimodal solution that directly interacts with the interface, bypassing the need for environment parsing or reliance on application-dependent APIs. Moreover, we propose a chain-of-action technique -- leveraging a series of intermediate previous action histories and future action plans -- to help the agent decide what action to execute. We evaluate our approach on a new device-control benchmark AITW with 30K unique instructions, spanning multi-step tasks such as application operation, web searching, and web shopping. Experimental results show that Auto-UI achieves state-of-the-art performance with an action type prediction accuracy of 90% and an overall action success rate of 74%. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cooelf/Auto-UI.

Predicting how a person's first-person view will evolve (what action will follow, what plan completes a task, whether an in-progress shot will score) is fundamentally under-specified: the same context admits many plausible futures, and a model trained to minimize prediction error is forced to hedge or average across them, getting it wrong either way. Two findings shape our approach. First, the future camera trajectory, the path the head carves through space, lets the model commit to one of those futures: it carries the operator's intent in a form fine enough to determine how an action will unfold, substantially outperforming language as a conditioning signal. Second, this same intent makes the trajectory itself partially predictable from the context at hand, enough that trajectory need not be observed at test time to recover most of the gain. We instantiate these findings as TrajPilot, a model that predicts candidate future trajectories from egocentric context and uses them to pilot action prediction in an action-aligned embedding space where language shapes the structure but is never used as a conditioning input. TrajPilot beats VLM and structured-planner baselines on procedural planning across Ego-Exo4D atomic, Ego-Exo4D Keystep, Ego4D GoalStep, and EgoPER, with the trajectory advantage widening with horizon (exactly where prior planners collapse) and holding under RGB-only camera-pose estimation. With the goal masked at inference, the same model performs goal-free anticipation, beating VLM baselines on Ego-Exo4D atomic and extending to EPIC-Kitchens-100 and basketball shot-outcome prediction.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

Artificial intelligence has revolutionized the way we analyze sports videos, whether to understand the actions of games in long untrimmed videos or to anticipate the player's motion in future frames. Despite these efforts, little attention has been given to anticipating game actions before they occur. In this work, we introduce the task of action anticipation for football broadcast videos, which consists in predicting future actions in unobserved future frames, within a five- or ten-second anticipation window. To benchmark this task, we release a new dataset, namely the SoccerNet Ball Action Anticipation dataset, based on SoccerNet Ball Action Spotting. Additionally, we propose a Football Action ANticipation TRAnsformer (FAANTRA), a baseline method that adapts FUTR, a state-of-the-art action anticipation model, to predict ball-related actions. To evaluate action anticipation, we introduce new metrics, including mAP@δ, which evaluates the temporal precision of predicted future actions, as well as mAP@infty, which evaluates their occurrence within the anticipation window. We also conduct extensive ablation studies to examine the impact of various task settings, input configurations, and model architectures. Experimental results highlight both the feasibility and challenges of action anticipation in football videos, providing valuable insights into the design of predictive models for sports analytics. By forecasting actions before they unfold, our work will enable applications in automated broadcasting, tactical analysis, and player decision-making. Our dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/MohamadDalal/FAANTRA.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Robot action planning in the real world is challenging as it requires not only understanding the current state of the environment but also predicting how it will evolve in response to actions. Vision-language-action (VLA), which repurpose large-scale vision-language models for robot action generation using action experts, have achieved notable success across a variety of robotic tasks. Nevertheless, their performance remains constrained by the scope of their training data, exhibiting limited generalization to unseen scenarios and vulnerability to diverse contextual perturbations. More recently, world models have been revisited as an alternative to VLAs. These models, referred to as world action models (WAMs), are built upon world models that are trained on large corpora of video data to predict future states. With minor adaptations, their latent representation can be decoded into robot actions. It has been suggested that their explicit dynamic prediction capacity, combined with spatiotemporal priors acquired from web-scale video pretraining, enables WAMs to generalize more effectively than VLAs. In this paper, we conduct a comparative study of prominent state-of-the-art VLA policies and recently released WAMs. We evaluate their performance on the LIBERO-Plus and RoboTwin 2.0-Plus benchmarks under various visual and language perturbations. Our results show that WAMs achieve strong robustness, with LingBot-VA reaching 74.2% success rate on RoboTwin 2.0-Plus and Cosmos-Policy achieving 82.2% on LIBERO-Plus. While VLAs such as π_{0.5} can achieve comparable robustness on certain tasks, they typically require extensive training with diverse robotic datasets and varied learning objectives. Hybrid approaches that partially incorporate video-based dynamic learning exhibit intermediate robustness, highlighting the importance of how video priors are integrated.

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly observable and must be modelled from context. Trajectory prediction, is thus a hard problem, and has seen increasing attention from researchers in the recent years. Prediction of motion, in application, must be realistic, diverse and controllable. In spite of increasing focus on multimodal trajectory generation, most methods still lack means for explicitly controlling different modes of the data generation. Further, most endeavours invest heavily in designing special mechanisms to learn the interactions in latent space. We present Conditional Speed GAN (CSG), that allows controlled generation of diverse and socially acceptable trajectories, based on user controlled speed. During prediction, CSG forecasts future speed from latent space and conditions its generation based on it. CSG is comparable to state-of-the-art GAN methods in terms of the benchmark distance metrics, while being simple and useful for simulation and data augmentation for different contexts such as fast or slow paced environments. Additionally, we compare the effect of different aggregation mechanisms and show that a naive approach of concatenation works comparable to its attention and pooling alternatives.

Before taking actions in an environment with more than one intelligent agent, an autonomous agent may benefit from reasoning about the other agents and utilizing a notion of a guarantee or confidence about the behavior of the system. In this article, we propose a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithm CAMMARL, which involves modeling the actions of other agents in different situations in the form of confident sets, i.e., sets containing their true actions with a high probability. We then use these estimates to inform an agent's decision-making. For estimating such sets, we use the concept of conformal predictions, by means of which, we not only obtain an estimate of the most probable outcome but get to quantify the operable uncertainty as well. For instance, we can predict a set that provably covers the true predictions with high probabilities (e.g., 95%). Through several experiments in two fully cooperative multi-agent tasks, we show that CAMMARL elevates the capabilities of an autonomous agent in MARL by modeling conformal prediction sets over the behavior of other agents in the environment and utilizing such estimates to enhance its policy learning.

Recent large-scale Vision Language Action (VLA) models have shown superior performance in robotic manipulation tasks guided by natural language. However, their generalization remains limited when applied to novel objects or unfamiliar environments that lie outside the training distribution. To address this, many existing approaches integrate additional components such as depth estimation, segmentation, or even diffusion to improve generalization, at the cost of adding significant computation overhead, resulting in low efficiency. This motivates the exploration of efficient action prediction methods, which are independent of additional high-level visual representations or diffusion techniques. In this work, we propose VOTE, an efficient and general framework for the optimization and acceleration of VLA models. In details, we propose a novel tokenizer-free fine-tuning approach for parallel accurate action prediction, which reduces computational overhead and accelerates inference speed. Additionally, we adopt an ensemble voting strategy for the action sampling, which significantly improves model performance and enhances generalization. Experimental results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with 35x faster inference and 145 Hz throughput. All the details and codes will be open-sourced.

Action supervision in vision-language-action (VLA) models is often treated as a downstream objective for learning action prediction. In this paper, we study it instead as a force that shapes inherited multimodal representations. We show that this shaping has a dual effect: it is necessary for forming action-compatible representations, but when action supervision is applied too directly to the inherited multimodal pathway, it can also destabilize representations that support language-side processing and object grounding. To address this tension, we introduce Action QFormer, a query-based action-facing interface that uses instruction-conditioned queries to reorganize inherited multimodal information into action-facing representations before downstream action generation. In zero-shot sim-to-real navigation, Action QFormer improves average closed-loop task success from 18.8% to 56.3%, raises fixed-instruction action-generation correctness from 22.5% to 75.5%, and nearly eliminates out-of-distribution instruction generations. Further analyses show that Action QFormer changes how action supervision shapes inherited multimodal representations, reducing broad upstream rewriting while preserving targeted and sometimes constructive action-supervised adaptation. These results suggest that improving VLA performance requires not only stronger pretrained backbones, but also better ways of selecting and organizing inherited multimodal information while controlling how it is shaped under action supervision.

We present counterfactual planning as a design approach for creating a range of safety mechanisms that can be applied in hypothetical future AI systems which have Artificial General Intelligence. The key step in counterfactual planning is to use an AGI machine learning system to construct a counterfactual world model, designed to be different from the real world the system is in. A counterfactual planning agent determines the action that best maximizes expected utility in this counterfactual planning world, and then performs the same action in the real world. We use counterfactual planning to construct an AGI agent emergency stop button, and a safety interlock that will automatically stop the agent before it undergoes an intelligence explosion. We also construct an agent with an input terminal that can be used by humans to iteratively improve the agent's reward function, where the incentive for the agent to manipulate this improvement process is suppressed. As an example of counterfactual planning in a non-agent AGI system, we construct a counterfactual oracle. As a design approach, counterfactual planning is built around the use of a graphical notation for defining mathematical counterfactuals. This two-diagram notation also provides a compact and readable language for reasoning about the complex types of self-referencing and indirect representation which are typically present inside machine learning agents.

World-action models (WAMs) are emerging as a promising foundation for embodied control: rather than predicting actions alone, they learn representations that couple action generation with future world prediction. This coupling is often viewed as a source of robustness, interpretability, and safety, as a robot's action can in principle be checked against its imagined future. In this paper, we show that this assumption is fragile. We introduce BadWAM, a unified framework for modeling and evaluating World-Action Drift Attacks: a new class of WAM-specific adversarial attacks that use small visual perturbations to break the alignment between what a WAM imagines and what it executes. BadWAM characterizes this attack surface along two natural criteria: attack strength and stealthiness. When the adversary prioritizes disruption, BadWAM instantiates an action-only adversarial attack, which directly drives the model toward task-failing actions. When the adversary additionally prioritizes stealth, BadWAM instantiates an imagination-preserving adversarial attack, which seeks to induce harmful action shifts while keeping the model's predicted future close to its clean imagination. Together, these two attacks capture a spectrum of WAM-specific failures: from overt action hijacking to stealthier cases where the model appears to imagine a plausible future but executes a desynchronized action. We evaluate BadWAM across different variants of WAMs. Results show that our attacks substantially reduce task success rates under closed-loop execution. For example, our action-only attack reduces the model performance from 96.5% to 43.1% success. The results of our imagination-preserving attack further exposes a WAM-specific vulnerability: moderate future-preserving regularization can maintain strong attack performance while reducing future imagination drift.

World action models (WAMs) have recently shown promise in jointly modeling future observations and executable robot actions. However, most existing WAMs still operate in 2D video or latent spaces, where visually plausible rollouts miss the 3D spatial constraints and occluded contact geometry required for precise manipulation. While geometric foundation models offer strong priors for recovering dense 3D structure and motion from visual observations, forcing WAMs to predict the dense 4D representation introduces costly geometric decoding and slows down causal action generation. To address the trade-off, we present WAM4D, a fast 4D world action model that uses lightweight spatial register tokens as training-time future-depth readouts to transfer pretrained geometric priors into a causal video-action transformer, then removes the register branch for lightweight action inference. To prevent non-causal shortcuts, we further design causal mixture attention for the Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) WAM backbone, defining modality-specific visibility among video, action, and geometry tokens. Comprehensive experiments on RoboTwin 2.0 and challenging real-world manipulation tasks show that WAM4D improves spatial consistency and achieves competitive action prediction while maintaining efficient inference.

Egocentric action anticipation consists in understanding which objects the camera wearer will interact with in the near future and which actions they will perform. We tackle the problem proposing an architecture able to anticipate actions at multiple temporal scales using two LSTMs to 1) summarize the past, and 2) formulate predictions about the future. The input video is processed considering three complimentary modalities: appearance (RGB), motion (optical flow) and objects (object-based features). Modality-specific predictions are fused using a novel Modality ATTention (MATT) mechanism which learns to weigh modalities in an adaptive fashion. Extensive evaluations on two large-scale benchmark datasets show that our method outperforms prior art by up to +7% on the challenging EPIC-Kitchens dataset including more than 2500 actions, and generalizes to EGTEA Gaze+. Our approach is also shown to generalize to the tasks of early action recognition and action recognition. Our method is ranked first in the public leaderboard of the EPIC-Kitchens egocentric action anticipation challenge 2019. Please see our web pages for code and examples: http://iplab.dmi.unict.it/rulstm - https://github.com/fpv-iplab/rulstm.

We address the challenging task of anticipating human-object interaction in first person videos. Most existing methods ignore how the camera wearer interacts with the objects, or simply consider body motion as a separate modality. In contrast, we observe that the international hand movement reveals critical information about the future activity. Motivated by this, we adopt intentional hand movement as a future representation and propose a novel deep network that jointly models and predicts the egocentric hand motion, interaction hotspots and future action. Specifically, we consider the future hand motion as the motor attention, and model this attention using latent variables in our deep model. The predicted motor attention is further used to characterise the discriminative spatial-temporal visual features for predicting actions and interaction hotspots. We present extensive experiments demonstrating the benefit of the proposed joint model. Importantly, our model produces new state-of-the-art results for action anticipation on both EGTEA Gaze+ and the EPIC-Kitchens datasets. Our project page is available at https://aptx4869lm.github.io/ForecastingHOI/

Robust robot control benefits from explicitly modeling state transitions, but video-generation world action models (WAMs) introduce substantial deployment cost. Existing latent WAMs avoid explicit future generation, but often compress predictive representations or separate predictive modeling from the representations used for action generation. We introduce JEPA-WAM, a latent WAM built in a pretrained V-JEPA space, which couples latent transition prediction with continuous action generation through a shared predictor. JEPA-WAM predicts a spatially structured joint current-future target that captures task-shared visual temporal structure between current and future observations, while preserving dense patch-level correspondence. Through the shared predictor, transition supervision directly shapes the backbone, from which dedicated representations are extracted for action prediction. The same design can also be instantiated in pretrained VLA policies while preserving their original perception and action pathways. On LIBERO-Plus, JEPA-WAM achieves 79.2%, the best result without large-scale robot-policy pretraining, while its pretrained π_{0.5} instantiation reaches 86.3%, achieving the best overall performance. Experiments on RoboTwin 2.0 and real-world bimanual manipulation further demonstrate strong generalization under visual and spatial shifts.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

Reliable forecasting of the future behavior of road agents is a critical component to safe planning in autonomous vehicles. Here, we represent continuous trajectories as sequences of discrete motion tokens and cast multi-agent motion prediction as a language modeling task over this domain. Our model, MotionLM, provides several advantages: First, it does not require anchors or explicit latent variable optimization to learn multimodal distributions. Instead, we leverage a single standard language modeling objective, maximizing the average log probability over sequence tokens. Second, our approach bypasses post-hoc interaction heuristics where individual agent trajectory generation is conducted prior to interactive scoring. Instead, MotionLM produces joint distributions over interactive agent futures in a single autoregressive decoding process. In addition, the model's sequential factorization enables temporally causal conditional rollouts. The proposed approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, ranking 1st on the interactive challenge leaderboard.

Agents must infer action outcomes and select actions that maximize a reward signal indicating how close the goal is to being reached. Supervised learning of reward models could introduce biases inherent to training data, limiting generalization to novel goals and environments. In this paper, we investigate whether well-defined world state representations alone can enable accurate reward prediction across domains. To address this, we introduce StateFactory, a factorized representation method that transforms unstructured observations into a hierarchical object-attribute structure using language models. This structured representation allows rewards to be estimated naturally as the semantic similarity between the current state and the goal state under hierarchical constraint. Overall, the compact representation structure induced by StateFactory enables strong reward generalization capabilities. We evaluate on RewardPrediction, a new benchmark dataset spanning five diverse domains and comprising 2,454 unique action-observation trajectories with step-wise ground-truth rewards. Our method shows promising zero-shot results against both VLWM-critic and LLM-as-a-Judge reward models, achieving 60% and 8% lower EPIC distance, respectively. Furthermore, this superior reward quality successfully translates into improved agent planning performance, yielding success rate gains of +21.64% on AlfWorld and +12.40% on ScienceWorld over reactive system-1 policies and enhancing system-2 agent planning. Project Page: https://statefactory.github.io

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs), including recent LeWorldModel (LeWM), have become a promising foundation for reconstruction-free visual world models. For visual planning, however, LeWM evaluates candidate action sequences by repeatedly applying a local one-step latent transition model. This autoregressive rollout makes planning computationally expensive and exposes the predicted trajectory to accumulated latent errors as the horizon grows. We propose Fast LeWorldModel (Fast-LeWM), a fast latent world model that replaces repeated local rollout with action-prefix prediction. Given the current latent and a candidate action sequence, Fast-LeWM encodes its prefixes and predicts the future latents reached after executing those prefixes in parallel. By making action prefixes the basic prediction unit, Fast-LeWM directly models action effects accumulated to different extents over multiple horizons. This prefix-level supervision forces the model to learn how states continuously evolve under different action prefixes, rather than only fitting one-step state transitions. During planning, the predictor can use the last prefix token from the encoded action sequence to evaluate the corresponding future latent without explicitly rolling through each intermediate imagined state. Across multiple tasks, Fast-LeWM improves average success over LeWM while substantially reducing planning time, achieving lower open-loop latent loss whose growth becomes significantly slower as the rollout horizon increases.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have achieved impressive results in visuomotor policy learning, yet remain fundamentally reactive, mapping current observations and language to actions without explicit forward prediction of world dynamics. Existing visual foresight methods predict future visual states but lack explicit motion guidance: they show where to go but not how to get there. We argue that future feature prediction and sparse point tracking are naturally complementary: the former provides the goal state, while the latter captures the continuous motion path toward it. We propose FoMoVLA, a framework that augments VLA representations with explicit spatio-temporal supervision by jointly learning future feature foresight and sparse 2D point tracking, enhancing the continuous action policy. FoMoVLA introduces compact foresight tokens to decode future feature states, decodes sparse temporal 2D point trajectories to model compact geometric motion, and couples both through a lightweight future-conditioned cross-attention module that enables consistent reasoning between anticipated states and point dynamics. Extensive experiments on LIBERO, RoboCasa GR-1 Tabletop, and LIBERO-Plus demonstrate state-of-the-art performance and strong zero-shot generalization. Project page is available at https://liauto-research.github.io/FoMoVLA.

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

Generative modeling of complex behaviors from labeled datasets has been a longstanding problem in decision making. Unlike language or image generation, decision making requires modeling actions - continuous-valued vectors that are multimodal in their distribution, potentially drawn from uncurated sources, where generation errors can compound in sequential prediction. A recent class of models called Behavior Transformers (BeT) addresses this by discretizing actions using k-means clustering to capture different modes. However, k-means struggles to scale for high-dimensional action spaces or long sequences, and lacks gradient information, and thus BeT suffers in modeling long-range actions. In this work, we present Vector-Quantized Behavior Transformer (VQ-BeT), a versatile model for behavior generation that handles multimodal action prediction, conditional generation, and partial observations. VQ-BeT augments BeT by tokenizing continuous actions with a hierarchical vector quantization module. Across seven environments including simulated manipulation, autonomous driving, and robotics, VQ-BeT improves on state-of-the-art models such as BeT and Diffusion Policies. Importantly, we demonstrate VQ-BeT's improved ability to capture behavior modes while accelerating inference speed 5x over Diffusion Policies. Videos and code can be found https://sjlee.cc/vq-bet

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

This report presents TAP-JEPA, our runner-up submission to the EPIC-KITCHENS-100 (EK-100) Action Anticipation Challenge at EgoVis 2026. The task is to anticipate the next verb, noun, and verb-noun action from an egocentric clip that ends before the target action begins. Instead of fine-tuning a large video backbone, TAP-JEPA builds a compact anticipation model on frozen V-JEPA 2.1 features: a ViT-G/384 encoder extracts visible pre-action tokens, the pre-trained latent predictor estimates near-future tokens from the observed context, and both token groups are fused by attentive probes with task-specific queries for verbs, nouns, and action pairs. For the final submission, we expand supervised training with the official training split and most of the validation split, reserving a small subset for sanity checks and qualitative inspection, and adopt a two-stage score fusion that first averages eight independently initialized probe replicas within each epoch and then merges candidates from epochs 12-20 with field-dependent weights. On the official open-testing leaderboard, our sunshinesky entry achieves 27.91 percent overall action Mean Top-5 Recall (MT5R), ranking second and only 0.04 percentage points behind the top score.

Multi-agent settings in the real world often involve tasks with varying types and quantities of agents and non-agent entities; however, common patterns of behavior often emerge among these agents/entities. Our method aims to leverage these commonalities by asking the question: ``What is the expected utility of each agent when only considering a randomly selected sub-group of its observed entities?'' By posing this counterfactual question, we can recognize state-action trajectories within sub-groups of entities that we may have encountered in another task and use what we learned in that task to inform our prediction in the current one. We then reconstruct a prediction of the full returns as a combination of factors considering these disjoint groups of entities and train this ``randomly factorized" value function as an auxiliary objective for value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning. By doing so, our model can recognize and leverage similarities across tasks to improve learning efficiency in a multi-task setting. Our approach, Randomized Entity-wise Factorization for Imagined Learning (REFIL), outperforms all strong baselines by a significant margin in challenging multi-task StarCraft micromanagement settings.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

Short-term action anticipation (STA) in first-person videos is a challenging task that involves understanding the next active object interactions and predicting future actions. Existing action anticipation methods have primarily focused on utilizing features extracted from video clips, but often overlooked the importance of objects and their interactions. To this end, we propose a novel approach that applies a guided attention mechanism between the objects, and the spatiotemporal features extracted from video clips, enhancing the motion and contextual information, and further decoding the object-centric and motion-centric information to address the problem of STA in egocentric videos. Our method, GANO (Guided Attention for Next active Objects) is a multi-modal, end-to-end, single transformer-based network. The experimental results performed on the largest egocentric dataset demonstrate that GANO outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods for the prediction of the next active object label, its bounding box location, the corresponding future action, and the time to contact the object. The ablation study shows the positive contribution of the guided attention mechanism compared to other fusion methods. Moreover, it is possible to improve the next active object location and class label prediction results of GANO by just appending the learnable object tokens with the region of interest embeddings.

World Action Models (WAMs) commonly rely on video generation to bridge visual world modeling and robot control. However, video-based WAMs face three coupled limitations: dense multi-frame future tokens make inference costly, full video prediction spends capacity on action-irrelevant temporal and appearance details, and long-horizon future imagination may introduce errors that mislead action prediction. These issues raise a simple question: Does world action model really need video generation? We propose ImageWAM, a simple WAM framework that repurposes pretrained image editing models for robot action prediction. In contrast to video generation, image editing provides a better-matched prior: it only needs to model a target-frame transformation, focuses on action-relevant current-to-target visual differences, and grounds task instructions to localized visual changes through edit pretraining. In practice, ImageWAM does not decode the target frame at inference time; instead, it conditions a flow-matching action expert on the KV caches produced by image-editing denoising, using them as a compact world-action context. ImageWAM outperforms standard VLA baselines and matching competitive WAMs without additional policy pretraining across different simulator and real-world experiments. It also reduces FLOPs to 1/6 and latency to 1/4 of video-based WAMs. Attention analysis further shows that editing caches focus on task-relevant change regions, supporting image editing as an effective alternative to video-based world-action modeling.

AI research often requires decisions before future evidence exists: which bottleneck to attack, which direction to pursue, or where a project should be positioned. We introduce ForeSci, a temporally controlled benchmark for evaluating whether LLM agents can make such forward-looking research judgements from historical evidence. ForeSci contains 500 tasks across four fast-moving AI domains and four decision families. Each task is paired with a cutoff-aligned offline knowledge base; post-cutoff papers are hidden during generation and used only for validation. To avoid random future-event prediction, tasks are derived from pre-cutoff taxonomy branches and evidence signals, and answer-generation backbones are selected to precede the task cutoffs. We evaluate native LLMs, Hybrid RAG, and three research-agent adaptations across four backbones. Results show that explicit evidence organization improves traceability and factual support, but gains depend strongly on the decision family. Diagnostics reveal a recurring evidence-decision decoupling: agents may cite relevant evidence while forecasting the wrong research object. ForeSci turns forward-looking AI research judgement into a controlled benchmark for evaluating research agents as decision-making systems.

Inference-Time-Compute (ITC) methods like Best-of-N and Tree-of-Thoughts are meant to produce output candidates that are both high-quality and diverse, but their use of high-temperature sampling often fails to achieve meaningful output diversity. Moreover, existing ITC methods offer limited control over how to perform reasoning, which in turn limits their explainability. We present STATe-of-Thoughts (STATe), an interpretable ITC method that searches over high-level reasoning patterns. STATe replaces stochastic sampling with discrete and interpretable textual interventions: a controller selects actions encoding high-level reasoning choices, a generator produces reasoning steps conditioned on those choices, and an evaluator scores candidates to guide search. This structured approach yields three main advantages. First, action-guided textual interventions produce greater response diversity than temperature-based sampling. Second, in a case study on argument generation, STATe's explicit action sequences capture interpretable features that are highly predictive of output quality. Third, estimating the association between performance and action choices allows us to identify promising yet unexplored regions of the action space and steer generation directly toward them. Together, these results establish STATe as a practical framework for generating high-quality, diverse, and interpretable text. Our framework is available at https://github.com/zbambergerNLP/state-of-thoughts.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models are built on the premise that semantic understanding from pretrained language or vision-language backbones should guide robot action prediction. Yet robot fine-tuning is optimized as imitation over task-specific action distributions, and many evaluations can be solved through visual or instruction-action shortcuts. We introduce RoboSemanticBench (RSB), an embodied benchmark for diagnosing semantic grounding in action prediction: whether post-trained VLA models can use complex instruction semantics to select and manipulate the correct physical target. In each episode, a robot receives a multiple-choice math or general-knowledge question, observes candidate answer blocks, and must grasp the block corresponding to the correct answer. RSB covers controlled arithmetic, grade-school mathematical understanding, and commonsense or factual understanding under four-choice and ten-choice suites. Across representative VLA models, we find that many policies learn to grasp candidate blocks but select the semantically correct block at near-random or below-random rates after controlling for grasp success, revealing a persistent gap between backbone-level semantic competence and action prediction.

A robot's ability to anticipate the 3D action target location of a hand's movement from egocentric videos can greatly improve safety and efficiency in human-robot interaction (HRI). While previous research predominantly focused on semantic action classification or 2D target region prediction, we argue that predicting the action target's 3D coordinate could pave the way for more versatile downstream robotics tasks, especially given the increasing prevalence of headset devices. This study expands EgoPAT3D, the sole dataset dedicated to egocentric 3D action target prediction. We augment both its size and diversity, enhancing its potential for generalization. Moreover, we substantially enhance the baseline algorithm by introducing a large pre-trained model and human prior knowledge. Remarkably, our novel algorithm can now achieve superior prediction outcomes using solely RGB images, eliminating the previous need for 3D point clouds and IMU input. Furthermore, we deploy our enhanced baseline algorithm on a real-world robotic platform to illustrate its practical utility in straightforward HRI tasks. The demonstrations showcase the real-world applicability of our advancements and may inspire more HRI use cases involving egocentric vision. All code and data are open-sourced and can be found on the project website.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

World Action Models (WAMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm by jointly modeling robot actions and future visual dynamics. However, their reliance on pixel-generative future supervision can entangle action-relevant state transitions with task-irrelevant visual content, limiting robustness under visual distribution shifts. We identify Training-Distribution Hallucination, a recurring phenomenon in which futures conditioned on visually shifted observations hallucinate training-domain content rather than remain faithful to the current scene. A controlled frame-triplet diagnosis further shows that DINOv3 features remain more stable across visual shifts while better preserving task-state distinctions than Wan-VAE latents. Rather than correcting the predicted futures, we propose Semantic-Temporal WAM (ST-WAM) to improve action robustness by using DINOv3 as a shared semantic representation for future prediction and history retrieval while retaining fine-grained VAE dynamics. Its Dual-Space Future Experts (DSFE) jointly predict future VAE latents and DINO features, while Current-Anchored Intent Retrieval (CAIR) retrieves task-relevant evidence from recent DINO history under the current visual-language context. ST-WAM is trained end-to-end without additional embodied pretraining or task-specific annotations, and requires no explicit future generation at inference. It achieves 98.7% on LIBERO and 92.8% on RoboTwin 2.0; more importantly, compared with Fast-WAM, it improves zero-shot LIBERO-Plus performance by 21.3 percentage points and more than doubles real-world success under visual shifts from 25.8% to 61.5%. These results demonstrate that semantic-temporal modeling effectively complements pixel-generative dynamics for robust manipulation.

Can every robot in a swarm predict the same future collective state from only local observations and bandwidth-limited messages? We formulate this as decentralized shared-state prediction and introduce Collective-State JEPA (CS-JEPA), a recurrent joint-embedding predictive architecture whose output at every robot represents one common future token field. At deployment, each robot uses a 16-frame local history and one 64-float recurrent message per directed edge; there is no global pooling, target encoder, episode clock, or recorded future action. After pretraining without downstream collective labels, frozen representations are evaluated with ridge probes fitted on 6, 12, or 24 globally labeled episodes. Against raw-future reconstruction with the same receiver anchor and deployment capacity but 9,607 additional training-only parameters, a prospectively registered five-seed follow-up improves prediction-error and inter-robot-agreement label-budget AUC on in-distribution, ring, mutual-kNN, and unseen-size families up to 108 robots. Every effect favors CS-JEPA in 5/5 outer seeds. In a separate sealed eight-seed follow-up, matched action-conditioned predictors receive each candidate four-step plan before producing receiver-local predictive representations. CS-JEPA reduces branch-value MSE by 45.5% and improves within-context candidate-score Pearson correlation by 0.1291, with both effects favorable in 8/8 seeds, including at unseen N=32. These results support common-future JEPA targets as a label-efficient primitive for decentralized swarm prediction under topology and size shift, with additional evidence of planning-relevant value estimation.

Tactile-enhanced vision-language-action (VLA) policies have been introduced for contact-rich manipulation, where critical interaction states are often hidden from vision. Future tactile prediction is a promising way to use touch because it turns tactile outcomes into supervision for action-induced contact dynamics. Yet VLA policies contain representations with different roles, from perceptual encoding to motor prediction, making it unclear where this supervision should be applied. We study this as a representation-alignment problem. Through a linear probe analysis, we find that future tactile states are most predictable from intermediate action-expert features, rather than from vision-language features or final action states. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a lightweight Latent Tactile Predictor (LTP), which predicts compact future tactile embeddings from the identified intermediate representation. By avoiding direct prediction of noisy raw tactile signals, LTP provides an action-outcome grounding signal that aligns intermediate action representations with future contact consequences. Experiments on real-world contact-rich manipulation tasks show that representation-aligned tactile grounding outperforms less aligned or multi-interface tactile prediction, highlighting the importance of where tactile supervision is applied.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code and a demo are available.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

The ability to predict future outcomes given control actions is fundamental for physical reasoning. However, such predictive models, often called world models, have proven challenging to learn and are typically developed for task-specific solutions with online policy learning. We argue that the true potential of world models lies in their ability to reason and plan across diverse problems using only passive data. Concretely, we require world models to have the following three properties: 1) be trainable on offline, pre-collected trajectories, 2) support test-time behavior optimization, and 3) facilitate task-agnostic reasoning. To realize this, we present DINO World Model (DINO-WM), a new method to model visual dynamics without reconstructing the visual world. DINO-WM leverages spatial patch features pre-trained with DINOv2, enabling it to learn from offline behavioral trajectories by predicting future patch features. This design allows DINO-WM to achieve observational goals through action sequence optimization, facilitating task-agnostic behavior planning by treating desired goal patch features as prediction targets. We evaluate DINO-WM across various domains, including maze navigation, tabletop pushing, and particle manipulation. Our experiments demonstrate that DINO-WM can generate zero-shot behavioral solutions at test time without relying on expert demonstrations, reward modeling, or pre-learned inverse models. Notably, DINO-WM exhibits strong generalization capabilities compared to prior state-of-the-art work, adapting to diverse task families such as arbitrarily configured mazes, push manipulation with varied object shapes, and multi-particle scenarios.

We introduce Bayesian Poisson Tucker decomposition (BPTD) for modeling country--country interaction event data. These data consist of interaction events of the form "country i took action a toward country j at time t." BPTD discovers overlapping country--community memberships, including the number of latent communities. In addition, it discovers directed community--community interaction networks that are specific to "topics" of action types and temporal "regimes." We show that BPTD yields an efficient MCMC inference algorithm and achieves better predictive performance than related models. We also demonstrate that it discovers interpretable latent structure that agrees with our knowledge of international relations.

In modern sequential decision-making systems, the construction of an optimal candidate action space is critical to efficient inference. However, existing approaches either rely on manually defined action spaces that lack scalability or utilize unstructured spaces that render exhaustive search computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we propose a novel framework named DynaAct for automatically constructing a compact action space to enhance sequential reasoning in complex problem-solving scenarios. Our method first estimates a proxy for the complete action space by extracting general sketches observed in a corpus covering diverse complex reasoning problems using large language models. We then formulate a submodular function that jointly evaluates candidate actions based on their utility to the current state and their diversity, and employ a greedy algorithm to select an optimal candidate set. Extensive experiments on six diverse standard benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly improves overall performance, while maintaining efficient inference without introducing substantial latency. The implementation is available at https://github.com/zhaoxlpku/DynaAct.

We propose world-language-action (WLA) models as a new class of embodied foundation models. WLA takes textual instructions, images, and robot states as inputs to jointly predict textual subtasks, subgoal images, and robot actions, conjoining the world modeling interface to learn from extensive egocentric videos as in the world-action model (WAM) and the language reasoning capacities to solve complex long-horizon tasks as in vision-language-action (VLA) models. At the core of WLA lies an autoregressive (AR) Transformer backbone, instead of a bidirectional diffusion Transformer as in WAMs, to predict the next state, comprising the semantic-level textual intention and complementary fine-grained physical dynamics. The physical dynamics are supervised by the world modeling objective based on a dedicated World Expert, and are leveraged to ease the characterization of the state-action correlation for the Action Expert. WLA leverages meta-queries to make the world prediction implicitly impact the action generation so that the former can be disabled during inference. The world prediction can also be activated to enable test-time scaling for improved robot control. Our WLA-0 prototype, with 2B active parameters, achieves 40 ms per inference on an NVIDIA RTX 5090. Evaluations across simulated and real-world environments demonstrate that WLA-0 achieves state-of-the-art multi-task and long-horizon learning abilities, e.g., 92.94\% success rate on RoboTwin2.0 Clean and 56.5\% success rate on RMBench. WLA-0 also holds the promise to learn novel tasks directly from cross-embodiment robot videos without action annotations.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

Manipulation has long been a challenging task for robots, while humans can effortlessly perform complex interactions with objects, such as hanging a cup on the mug rack. A key reason is the lack of a large and uniform dataset for teaching robots manipulation skills. Current robot datasets often record robot action in different action spaces within a simple scene. This hinders the robot to learn a unified and robust action representation for different robots within diverse scenes. Observing how humans understand a manipulation task, we find that understanding how the objects should move in the 3D space is a critical clue for guiding actions. This clue is embodiment-agnostic and suitable for both humans and different robots. Motivated by this, we aim to learn a 3D flow world model from both human and robot manipulation data. This model predicts the future movement of the interacting objects in 3D space, guiding action planning for manipulation. Specifically, we synthesize a large-scale 3D optical flow dataset, named ManiFlow-110k, through a moving object auto-detect pipeline. A video diffusion-based world model then learns manipulation physics from these data, generating 3D optical flow trajectories conditioned on language instructions. With the generated 3D object optical flow, we propose a flow-guided rendering mechanism, which renders the predicted final state and leverages GPT-4o to assess whether the predicted flow aligns with the task description. This equips the robot with a closed-loop planning ability. Finally, we consider the predicted 3D optical flow as constraints for an optimization policy to determine a chunk of robot actions for manipulation. Extensive experiments demonstrate strong generalization across diverse robotic manipulation tasks and reliable cross-embodiment adaptation without hardware-specific training.

Early action prediction deals with inferring the ongoing action from partially-observed videos, typically at the outset of the video. We propose a bottleneck-based attention model that captures the evolution of the action, through progressive sampling over fine-to-coarse scales. Our proposed Temporal Progressive (TemPr) model is composed of multiple attention towers, one for each scale. The predicted action label is based on the collective agreement considering confidences of these towers. Extensive experiments over four video datasets showcase state-of-the-art performance on the task of Early Action Prediction across a range of encoder architectures. We demonstrate the effectiveness and consistency of TemPr through detailed ablations.