Daily Papers

We give a conceptual treatment of the notion of joints, marginals, and independence in the setting of categorical probability. This is achieved by endowing the usual probability monads (like the Giry monad) with a monoidal and an opmonoidal structure, mutually compatible (i.e. a bimonoidal structure). If the underlying monoidal category is cartesian monoidal, a bimonoidal structure is given uniquely by a commutative strength. However, if the underlying monoidal category is not cartesian monoidal, a strength is not enough to guarantee all the desired properties of joints and marginals. A bimonoidal structure is then the correct requirement for the more general case. We explain the theory and the operational interpretation, with the help of the graphical calculus for monoidal categories. We give a definition of stochastic independence based on the bimonoidal structure, compatible with the intuition and with other approaches in the literature for cartesian monoidal categories. We then show as an example that the Kantorovich monad on the category of complete metric spaces is a bimonoidal monad for a non-cartesian monoidal structure.

Markov categories are a recent categorical approach to the mathematical foundations of probability and statistics. Here, this approach is advanced by stating and proving equivalent conditions for second-order stochastic dominance, a widely used way of comparing probability distributions by their spread. Furthermore, we lay foundation for the theory of comparing statistical experiments within Markov categories by stating and proving the classical Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem. Our version not only offers new insight into the proof, but its abstract nature also makes the result more general, automatically specializing to the standard Blackwell-Sherman-Stein Theorem in measure-theoretic probability as well as a Bayesian version that involves prior-dependent garbling. Along the way, we define and characterize representable Markov categories, within which one can talk about Markov kernels to or from spaces of distributions. We do so by exploring the relation between Markov categories and Kleisli categories of probability monads.

We consider three monads on Top, the category of topological spaces, which formalize topological aspects of probability and possibility in categorical terms. The first one is the Hoare hyperspace monad H, which assigns to every space its space of closed subsets equipped with the lower Vietoris topology. The second is the monad V of continuous valuations, also known as the extended probabilistic powerdomain. We construct both monads in a unified way in terms of double dualization. This reveals a close analogy between them, and allows us to prove that the operation of taking the support of a continuous valuation is a morphism of monads from V to H. In particular, this implies that every H-algebra (topological complete semilattice) is also a V-algebra. Third, we show that V can be restricted to a submonad of tau-smooth probability measures on Top. By composing these two morphisms of monads, we obtain that taking the support of a tau-smooth probability measure is also a morphism of monads.

We define and study a probability monad on the category of complete metric spaces and short maps. It assigns to each space the space of Radon probability measures on it with finite first moment, equipped with the Kantorovich-Wasserstein distance. This monad is analogous to the Giry monad on the category of Polish spaces, and it extends a construction due to van Breugel for compact and for 1-bounded complete metric spaces. We prove that this Kantorovich monad arises from a colimit construction on finite power-like constructions, which formalizes the intuition that probability measures are limits of finite samples. The proof relies on a criterion for when an ordinary left Kan extension of lax monoidal functors is a monoidal Kan extension. The colimit characterization allows the development of integration theory and the treatment of measures on spaces of measures, without measure theory. We also show that the category of algebras of the Kantorovich monad is equivalent to the category of closed convex subsets of Banach spaces with short affine maps as morphisms.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependent Type Systems (PDTS) via a functional language based on a subsystem of intuitionistic type theory including dependent sums and products, which is expanded to include stochastic functions. We provide a sampling-based semantics for the language based on non-deterministic beta reduction. Further, we derive a probabilistic logic from the PDTS introduced as a direct result of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. The probabilistic logic derived is shown to provide a universal representation for finite discrete distributions.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

We extend the simply-typed guarded lambda-calculus with discrete probabilities and endow it with a program logic for reasoning about relational properties of guarded probabilistic computations. This provides a framework for programming and reasoning about infinite stochastic processes like Markov chains. We demonstrate the logic sound by interpreting its judgements in the topos of trees and by using probabilistic couplings for the semantics of relational assertions over distributions on discrete types. The program logic is designed to support syntax-directed proofs in the style of relational refinement types, but retains the expressiveness of higher-order logic extended with discrete distributions, and the ability to reason relationally about expressions that have different types or syntactic structure. In addition, our proof system leverages a well-known theorem from the coupling literature to justify better proof rules for relational reasoning about probabilistic expressions. We illustrate these benefits with a broad range of examples that were beyond the scope of previous systems, including shift couplings and lump couplings between random walks.

Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.

This paper reformulates a classical result in probability theory from the 1930s in modern categorical terms: de Finetti's representation theorem is redescribed as limit statement for a chain of finite spaces in the Kleisli category of the Giry monad. This new limit is used to identify among exchangeable coalgebras the final one.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed a shift towards autonomous agents capable of complex reasoning and tool use. However, current agent architectures are frequently constructed using imperative, ad hoc patterns. This results in brittle systems plagued by difficulties in state management, error handling, and concurrency. This paper introduces Monadic Context Engineering (MCE), a novel architectural paradigm leveraging the algebraic structures of Functors, Applicative Functors, and Monads to provide a formal foundation for agent design. MCE treats agent workflows as computational contexts where cross-cutting concerns, such as state propagation, short-circuiting error handling, and asynchronous execution, are managed intrinsically by the algebraic properties of the abstraction. We demonstrate how Monads enable robust sequential composition, how Applicatives provide a principled structure for parallel execution, and crucially, how Monad Transformers allow for the systematic composition of these capabilities. This layered approach enables developers to construct complex, resilient, and efficient AI agents from simple, independently verifiable components. We further extend this framework to describe Meta-Agents, which leverage MCE for generative orchestration, dynamically creating and managing sub-agent workflows through metaprogramming. Project Page: https://github.com/yifanzhang-pro/monadic-context-engineering.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.

We present our position on the elusive quest for a general-purpose framework for specifying and studying deep learning architectures. Our opinion is that the key attempts made so far lack a coherent bridge between specifying constraints which models must satisfy and specifying their implementations. Focusing on building a such a bridge, we propose to apply category theory -- precisely, the universal algebra of monads valued in a 2-category of parametric maps -- as a single theory elegantly subsuming both of these flavours of neural network design. To defend our position, we show how this theory recovers constraints induced by geometric deep learning, as well as implementations of many architectures drawn from the diverse landscape of neural networks, such as RNNs. We also illustrate how the theory naturally encodes many standard constructs in computer science and automata theory.

We give a geometry of interaction model for a typed lambda-calculus endowed with operators for sampling from a continuous uniform distribution and soft conditioning, namely a paradigmatic calculus for higher-order Bayesian programming. The model is based on the category of measurable spaces and partial measurable functions, and is proved adequate with respect to both a distribution-based and a sampling based operational semantics.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Partition logics -- non-Boolean event structures obtained by pasting Boolean algebras -- provide a natural language for situations in which a system has a definite latent state but can be accessed and resolved only through mutually incompatible coarse-grained modes of observation. We show that this structure arises in a range of social-science settings by constructing six explicit examples from personnel assessment, survey framing, clinical diagnosis, espionage coordination, legal pluralism, and organizational auditing. For each case we identify the latent state space, the observational contexts as partitions, and the shared atoms that intertwine contexts, yielding instances of the L_{12} bowtie, triangle, pentagon, and automaton partition logics. These examples make precise a notion of social complementarity: different modes of inquiry can be incompatible even though the underlying system remains fully value-definite. Complementarity in this sense does not entail contextuality or ontic indeterminacy. We further compare the classical probabilities generated by convex mixtures of dispersion-free states with the quantum-like Born probabilities available when the same exclusivity graph admits a faithful orthogonal representation. The framework thus separates logical structure from probabilistic realization and suggests empirically testable benchmarks for quantum-cognition models.

In "Backprop as functor", the authors show that the fundamental elements of deep learning -- gradient descent and backpropagation -- can be conceptualized as a strong monoidal functor Para(Euc)toLearn from the category of parameterized Euclidean spaces to that of learners, a category developed explicitly to capture parameter update and backpropagation. It was soon realized that there is an isomorphism LearncongPara(Slens), where Slens is the symmetric monoidal category of simple lenses as used in functional programming. In this note, we observe that Slens is a full subcategory of Poly, the category of polynomial functors in one variable, via the functor Amapsto Ay^A. Using the fact that (Poly,otimes) is monoidal closed, we show that a map Ato B in Para(Slens) has a natural interpretation in terms of dynamical systems (more precisely, generalized Moore machines) whose interface is the internal-hom type [Ay^A,By^B]. Finally, we review the fact that the category p-Coalg of dynamical systems on any p in Poly forms a topos, and consider the logical propositions that can be stated in its internal language. We give gradient descent as an example, and we conclude by discussing some directions for future work.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Convolution is a broadly useful operation with applications including signal processing, machine learning, probability, optics, polynomial multiplication, and efficient parsing. Usually, however, this operation is understood and implemented in more specialized forms, hiding commonalities and limiting usefulness. This paper formulates convolution in the common algebraic framework of semirings and semimodules and populates that framework with various representation types. One of those types is the grand abstract template and itself generalizes to the free semimodule monad. Other representations serve varied uses and performance trade-offs, with implementations calculated from simple and regular specifications. Of particular interest is Brzozowski's method for regular expression matching. Uncovering the method's essence frees it from syntactic manipulations, while generalizing from boolean to weighted membership (such as multisets and probability distributions) and from sets to n-ary relations. The classic trie data structure then provides an elegant and efficient alternative to syntax. Pleasantly, polynomial arithmetic requires no additional implementation effort, works correctly with a variety of representations, and handles multivariate polynomials and power series with ease. Image convolution also falls out as a special case.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

DisCoPy is a Python toolkit for computing with monoidal categories. It comes with two flexible data structures for string diagrams: the first one for planar monoidal categories based on lists of layers, the second one for symmetric monoidal categories based on cospans of hypergraphs. Algorithms for functor application then allow to translate string diagrams into code for numerical computation, be it differentiable, probabilistic or quantum. This report gives an overview of the library and the new developments released in its version 1.0. In particular, we showcase the implementation of diagram equality for a large fragment of the hierarchy of graphical languages for monoidal categories, as well as a new syntax for defining string diagrams as Python functions.

This thesis introduces quantum natural language processing (QNLP) models based on a simple yet powerful analogy between computational linguistics and quantum mechanics: grammar as entanglement. The grammatical structure of text and sentences connects the meaning of words in the same way that entanglement structure connects the states of quantum systems. Category theory allows to make this language-to-qubit analogy formal: it is a monoidal functor from grammar to vector spaces. We turn this abstract analogy into a concrete algorithm that translates the grammatical structure onto the architecture of parameterised quantum circuits. We then use a hybrid classical-quantum algorithm to train the model so that evaluating the circuits computes the meaning of sentences in data-driven tasks. The implementation of QNLP models motivated the development of DisCoPy (Distributional Compositional Python), the toolkit for applied category theory of which the first chapter gives a comprehensive overview. String diagrams are the core data structure of DisCoPy, they allow to reason about computation at a high level of abstraction. We show how they can encode both grammatical structures and quantum circuits, but also logical formulae, neural networks or arbitrary Python code. Monoidal functors allow to translate these abstract diagrams into concrete computation, interfacing with optimised task-specific libraries. The second chapter uses DisCopy to implement QNLP models as parameterised functors from grammar to quantum circuits. It gives a first proof-of-concept for the more general concept of functorial learning: generalising machine learning from functions to functors by learning from diagram-like data. In order to learn optimal functor parameters via gradient descent, we introduce the notion of diagrammatic differentiation: a graphical calculus for computing the gradients of parameterised diagrams.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

Markov categories are a novel framework to describe and treat problems in probability and information theory. In this work we combine the categorical formalism with the traditional quantitative notions of entropy, mutual information, and data processing inequalities. We show that several quantitative aspects of information theory can be captured by an enriched version of Markov categories, where the spaces of morphisms are equipped with a divergence or even a metric. As it is customary in information theory, mutual information can be defined as a measure of how far a joint source is from displaying independence of its components. More strikingly, Markov categories give a notion of determinism for sources and channels, and we can define entropy exactly by measuring how far a source or channel is from being deterministic. This recovers Shannon and R\'enyi entropies, as well as the Gini-Simpson index used in ecology to quantify diversity, and it can be used to give a conceptual definition of generalized entropy.

This paper generalises the treatment of compositional game theory as introduced by the second and third authors with Ghani and Winschel, where games are modelled as morphisms of a symmetric monoidal category. From an economic modelling perspective, the existing notion of an open game is not expressive enough for many applications. This includes stochastic environments, stochastic choices by players, as well as incomplete information regarding the game being played. The current paper addresses these three issue all at once. To achieve this we make significant use of category theory, especially the 'coend optics' of Riley.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

We introduce k-quantifier logics -- logics with access to k-tuples of elements and very general quantification patterns for transitions between k-tuples. The framework is very expressive and encompasses e.g. the k-variable fragments of first-order logic, modal logic, and monotone neighbourhood semantics. We introduce a corresponding notion of bisimulation and prove variants of the classical Ehrenfeucht-Fraisse and Hennessy-Milner theorem. Finally, we show a Lindstrom-style characterisation for k-quantifier logics that satisfy Los' theorem by proving that they are the unique maximally expressive logics that satisfy Los' theorem and are invariant under the associated bisimulation relations.

We propose a new definition of higher-order DisCoCat (categorical compositional distributional) models where the meaning of a word is not a diagram, but a diagram-valued higher-order function. Our models can be seen as a variant of Montague semantics based on a lambda calculus where the primitives act on string diagrams rather than logical formulae. As a special case, we show how to translate from the Lambek calculus into Peirce's system beta for first-order logic. This allows us to give a purely diagrammatic treatment of higher-order and non-linear processes in natural language semantics: adverbs, prepositions, negation and quantifiers. The theoretical definition presented in this article comes with a proof-of-concept implementation in DisCoPy, the Python library for string diagrams.

One of the fundamental problems in Artificial Intelligence is to perform complex multi-hop logical reasoning over the facts captured by a knowledge graph (KG). This problem is challenging, because KGs can be massive and incomplete. Recent approaches embed KG entities in a low dimensional space and then use these embeddings to find the answer entities. However, it has been an outstanding challenge of how to handle arbitrary first-order logic (FOL) queries as present methods are limited to only a subset of FOL operators. In particular, the negation operator is not supported. An additional limitation of present methods is also that they cannot naturally model uncertainty. Here, we present BetaE, a probabilistic embedding framework for answering arbitrary FOL queries over KGs. BetaE is the first method that can handle a complete set of first-order logical operations: conjunction (wedge), disjunction (vee), and negation (neg). A key insight of BetaE is to use probabilistic distributions with bounded support, specifically the Beta distribution, and embed queries/entities as distributions, which as a consequence allows us to also faithfully model uncertainty. Logical operations are performed in the embedding space by neural operators over the probabilistic embeddings. We demonstrate the performance of BetaE on answering arbitrary FOL queries on three large, incomplete KGs. While being more general, BetaE also increases relative performance by up to 25.4% over the current state-of-the-art KG reasoning methods that can only handle conjunctive queries without negation.

We enhance the calculus of string diagrams for monoidal categories with hierarchical features in order to capture closed monoidal (and cartesian closed) structure. Using this new syntax we formulate an automatic differentiation algorithm for (applied) simply typed lambda calculus in the style of [Pearlmutter and Siskind 2008] and we prove for the first time its soundness. To give an efficient yet principled implementation of the AD algorithm we define a sound and complete representation of hierarchical string diagrams as a class of hierarchical hypergraphs we call hypernets.

Reverse derivative categories (RDCs) have recently been shown to be a suitable semantic framework for studying machine learning algorithms. Whereas emphasis has been put on training methodologies, less attention has been devoted to particular model classes: the concrete categories whose morphisms represent machine learning models. In this paper we study presentations by generators and equations of classes of RDCs. In particular, we propose polynomial circuits as a suitable machine learning model. We give an axiomatisation for these circuits and prove a functional completeness result. Finally, we discuss the use of polynomial circuits over specific semirings to perform machine learning with discrete values.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

We introduce the category of information structures, whose objects are suitable diagrams of measurable sets that encode the possible outputs of a given family of observables and their mutual relationships of refinement; they serve as mathematical models of contextuality in classical and quantum settings. Each information structure can be regarded as a ringed site with trivial topology; the structure ring is generated by the observables themselves and its multiplication corresponds to joint measurement. We extend Baudot and Bennequin's definition of information cohomology to this setting, as a derived functor in the category of modules over the structure ring, and show explicitly that the bar construction gives a projective resolution in that category, recovering in this way the cochain complexes previously considered in the literature. Finally, we study the particular case of a one-parameter family of coefficients made of functions of probability distributions. The only 1-cocycles are Shannon entropy or Tsallis alpha-entropy, depending on the value of the parameter.

This paper presents a quantitative program verification infrastructure for discrete probabilistic programs. Our infrastructure can be viewed as the probabilistic analogue of Boogie: its central components are an intermediate verification language (IVL) together with a real-valued logic. Our IVL provides a programming-language-style for expressing verification conditions whose validity implies the correctness of a program under investigation. As our focus is on verifying quantitative properties such as bounds on expected outcomes, expected run-times, or termination probabilities, off-the-shelf IVLs based on Boolean first-order logic do not suffice. Instead, a paradigm shift from the standard Boolean to a real-valued domain is required. Our IVL features quantitative generalizations of standard verification constructs such as assume- and assert-statements. Verification conditions are generated by a weakest-precondition-style semantics, based on our real-valued logic. We show that our verification infrastructure supports natural encodings of numerous verification techniques from the literature. With our SMT-based implementation, we automatically verify a variety of benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, this establishes the first deductive verification infrastructure for expectation-based reasoning about probabilistic programs.

This paper presents the Relational Machine Calculus (RMC): a simple, foundational model of first-order relational programming. The RMC originates from the Functional Machine Calculus (FMC), which generalizes the lambda-calculus and its standard call-by-name stack machine in two directions. One, "locations", introduces multiple stacks, which enable effect operators to be encoded into the abstraction and application constructs. The second, "sequencing", introduces the imperative notions of "skip" and "sequence", similar to kappa-calculus and concatenative programming languages. The key observation of the RMC is that the first-order fragment of the FMC exhibits a latent duality which, given a simple decomposition of the relevant constructors, can be concretely expressed as an involution on syntax. Semantically, this gives rise to a sound and complete calculus for string diagrams of Frobenius monoids. We consider unification as the corresponding symmetric generalization of beta-reduction. By further including standard operators of Kleene algebra, the RMC embeds a range of computational models: the kappa-calculus, logic programming, automata, Interaction Nets, and Petri Nets, among others. These embeddings preserve operational semantics, which for the RMC is again given by a generalization of the standard stack machine for the lambda-calculus. The equational theory of the RMC (which supports reasoning about its operational semantics) is conservative over both the first-order lambda-calculus and Kleene algebra, and can be oriented to give a confluent reduction relation.

This paper presents the Functional Machine Calculus (FMC) as a simple model of higher-order computation with "reader/writer" effects: higher-order mutable store, input/output, and probabilistic and non-deterministic computation. The FMC derives from the lambda-calculus by taking the standard operational perspective of a call-by-name stack machine as primary, and introducing two natural generalizations. One, "locations", introduces multiple stacks, which each may represent an effect and so enable effect operators to be encoded into the abstraction and application constructs of the calculus. The second, "sequencing", is known from kappa-calculus and concatenative programming languages, and introduces the imperative notions of "skip" and "sequence". This enables the encoding of reduction strategies, including call-by-value lambda-calculus and monadic constructs. The encoding of effects into generalized abstraction and application means that standard results from the lambda-calculus may carry over to effects. The main result is confluence, which is possible because encoded effects reduce algebraically rather than operationally. Reduction generates the familiar algebraic laws for state, and unlike in the monadic setting, reader/writer effects combine seamlessly. A system of simple types confers termination of the machine.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

We present Generative Logic (GL), a deterministic architecture that begins from user-supplied axiomatic definitions -- written in a minimalist Mathematical Programming Language (MPL) -- and systematically explores their deductive neighborhood. Definitions are compiled into a distributed grid of simple Logic Blocks (LBs) that exchange messages; any time several expressions unify under an inference rule, a new fact is emitted with full provenance to its sources, yielding replayable, auditable proof graphs. A prototype software implementation instantiates the workflow on first-order Peano arithmetic. Starting only from the Peano axioms, GL enumerates candidate implications, applies normalization and type filters, and automatically reconstructs machine-checkable proofs of foundational arithmetic laws including associativity and commutativity of addition, associativity and commutativity of multiplication, and distributivity. Generated proofs export to navigable HTML so that every inference step can be inspected independently. We outline a hardware-software co-design path toward massively parallel realizations and describe prospective integration with probabilistic models (e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs)) for autoformalization and conjecture seeding. The Python and MPL code to reproduce the Peano experiments, along with the full HTML proof graphs, are available in the project's GitHub repository at https://github.com/Generative-Logic/GL/tree/35a111ea9ba53afe051703d6050be0c3923e9724 and are permanently archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16408441. We invite community feedback and collaboration.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries - including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment - correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

We introduce Minary, a computational framework designed as a candidate for the first formally provable autopoietic primitive. Minary represents interacting probabilistic events as multi-dimensional vectors and combines them via linear superposition rather than multiplicative scalar operations, thereby preserving uncertainty and enabling constructive and destructive interference in the range [-1,1]. A fixed set of ``perspectives'' evaluates ``semantic dimensions'' according to hidden competencies, and their interactions drive two discrete-time stochastic processes. We model this system as an iterated random affine map and use the theory of iterated random functions to prove that it converges in distribution to a unique stationary law; we moreover obtain an explicit closed form for the limiting expectation in terms of row, column, and global averages of the competency matrix. We then derive exact formulas for the mean and variance of the normalized consensus conditioned on the activation of a given semantic dimension, revealing how consensus depends on competency structure rather than raw input signals. Finally, we argue that Minary is organizationally closed yet operationally open in the sense of Maturana and Varela, and we discuss implications for building self-maintaining, distributed, and parallelizable computational systems that house a uniquely subjective notion of identity.

In the flavour of categorical quantum mechanics, we extend nonlocal games to allow quantum questions and answers, using quantum sets (special symmetric dagger Frobenius algebras) and the quantum functions of Musto, Reutter, and Verdon [arXiv:1711.07945]. Equations are presented using a diagrammatic calculus for tensor categories. To this quantum question and answer setting, we extend the standard definitions, including strategies, correlations, and synchronicity, and we use these definitions to extend results about synchronicity. We extend the graph homomorphism (isomorphism) game to quantum graphs, and show it is synchronous (bisynchronous) and connect its perfect (bi)strategies to quantum graph homomorphisms (isomorphisms). Our extended definitions agree with the existing quantum games literature, except in the case of synchronicity.

Automata learning is a popular technique used to automatically construct an automaton model from queries. Much research went into devising ad hoc adaptations of algorithms for different types of automata. The CALF project seeks to unify these using category theory in order to ease correctness proofs and guide the design of new algorithms. In this paper, we extend CALF to cover learning of algebraic structures that may not have a coalgebraic presentation. Furthermore, we provide a detailed algorithmic account of an abstract version of the popular L* algorithm, which was missing from CALF. We instantiate the abstract theory to a large class of Set functors, by which we recover for the first time practical tree automata learning algorithms from an abstract framework and at the same time obtain new algorithms to learn algebras of quotiented polynomial functors.

The do-calculus defines a general system of inference for interventional queries, allowing causal quantities to be transformed through successive applications of its rules. This process induces a rich space of equivalent interventional expressions, but combining and ordering these rules remains challenging. In this work, we introduce derivation graphs, which represent how do-calculus rules are applied and combined, and characterize the full space of observational and interventional probabilities which are equivalent under the do-calculus. The structure of these graphs yields a simple procedure that uses at most four applications of do-calculus rules. Finally, we show how applying identification algorithms to equivalent causal queries produces multiple valid estimands for the same causal quantity, eventually yielding more efficient estimators.

We generalise an existing construction of Bayesian Lenses to admit lenses between pairs of objects where the backwards object is dependent on states on the forwards object (interpreted as probability distributions). This gives a natural setting for studying stochastic maps with Bayesian inverses restricted to the points supported by a given prior. In order to state this formally we develop a proposed definition by Fritz of a support object in a Markov category and show that these give rise to a section into the category of dependent Bayesian lenses encoding a more canonical notion of Bayesian inversion.

We study the Levine hat problem, a classic combinatorial puzzle introduced by Lionel Levine in 2010. This problem involves a game in which n geq 2 players, each seeing an infinite stack of hats on each of their teammates' heads but not on their own, must simultaneously guess the index of a black hat on their own stack. If one of the players fails to do so, the team loses collectively. The players must therefore come up with a good strategy before the game starts. While the optimal winning probability V_{n} remains unknown even for n=2, we make three key advances. First, we develop a novel geometric framework for representing strategies through measurable functions, providing a new expression of V_{n} and a unified treatment of the game for finite and for infinite stacks via integral formulations. Secondly, we construct a new strategy K_{5} that reaches the conjectured optimal probability of victory : 0.35. We also show that K_{5} is part of a larger class of strategies that allow us to improve current bounds and resolve conjectured inequalities. Finally, we introduce and entirely solve a continuous generalization of the problem, demonstrating that extending to uncountable hat stacks increases the optimal winning probability to exactly 1/2. This generalization naturally leads to a broader and smoother strategic framework, within which we also describe how to compute optimal responses to a range of strategies.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

Enhancing the intelligibility and interpretability of machine learning is a crucial task in responding to the demand for Explicability as an AI principle, and in promoting the better social implementation of AI. The aim of our research is to contribute to this improvement by reformulating machine learning models through the lens of category theory, thereby developing a semantic framework for structuring and understanding AI systems. Our categorical modeling in this paper clarifies and formalizes the structural interplay between residuals and parameters in supervised learning. The present paper focuses on the multiple linear regression model, which represents the most basic form of supervised learning. By defining two concrete categories corresponding to parameters and data, along with an adjoint pair of functors between them, we introduce our categorical formulation of supervised learning. We show that the essential structure of this framework is captured by what we call the Gauss-Markov Adjunction. Within this setting, the dual flow of information can be explicitly described as a correspondence between variations in parameters and residuals. The ordinary least squares estimator for the parameters and the minimum residual are related via the preservation of limits by the right adjoint functor. Furthermore, we position this formulation as an instance of extended denotational semantics for supervised learning, and propose applying a semantic perspective developed in theoretical computer science as a formal foundation for Explicability in AI.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

With recent dramatic increases in AI system capabilities, there has been growing interest in utilizing machine learning for reasoning-heavy, quantitative tasks, particularly mathematics. While there are many resources capturing mathematics at the high-school, undergraduate, and graduate level, there are far fewer resources available that align with the level of difficulty and open endedness encountered by professional mathematicians working on open problems. To address this, we introduce a new collection of datasets, the Algebraic Combinatorics Dataset Repository (ACD Repo), representing either foundational results or open problems in algebraic combinatorics, a subfield of mathematics that studies discrete structures arising from abstract algebra. Further differentiating our dataset collection is the fact that it aims at the conjecturing process. Each dataset includes an open-ended research-level question and a large collection of examples (up to 10M in some cases) from which conjectures should be generated. We describe all nine datasets, the different ways machine learning models can be applied to them (e.g., training with narrow models followed by interpretability analysis or program synthesis with LLMs), and discuss some of the challenges involved in designing datasets like these.

The Prophet Inequality and Pandora's Box problems are fundamental stochastic problem with applications in Mechanism Design, Online Algorithms, Stochastic Optimization, Optimal Stopping, and Operations Research. A usual assumption in these works is that the probability distributions of the n underlying random variables are given as input to the algorithm. Since in practice these distributions need to be learned, we initiate the study of such stochastic problems in the Multi-Armed Bandits model. In the Multi-Armed Bandits model we interact with n unknown distributions over T rounds: in round t we play a policy x^{(t)} and receive a partial (bandit) feedback on the performance of x^{(t)}. The goal is to minimize the regret, which is the difference over T rounds in the total value of the optimal algorithm that knows the distributions vs. the total value of our algorithm that learns the distributions from the partial feedback. Our main results give near-optimal O(poly(n)T) total regret algorithms for both Prophet Inequality and Pandora's Box. Our proofs proceed by maintaining confidence intervals on the unknown indices of the optimal policy. The exploration-exploitation tradeoff prevents us from directly refining these confidence intervals, so the main technique is to design a regret upper bound that is learnable while playing low-regret Bandit policies.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

We present a complete formalization in Isabelle/HOL of the object part of an equivalence between L-mosaics and bounded join-semilattices, employing an AI-assisted methodology that integrates large language models as reasoning assistants throughout the proof development process. The equivalence was originally established by Cangiotti, Linzi, and Talotti in their study of hypercompositional structures related to orthomodular lattices and quantum logic. Our formalization rigorously verifies the main theoretical result and demonstrates the mutual inverse property of the transformations establishing this equivalence. The development showcases both the mathematical depth of multivalued algebraic operations and the potential for AI-enhanced interactive theorem proving in tackling complex formalization projects.

Every known artificial deep neural network (DNN) corresponds to an object in a canonical Grothendieck's topos; its learning dynamic corresponds to a flow of morphisms in this topos. Invariance structures in the layers (like CNNs or LSTMs) correspond to Giraud's stacks. This invariance is supposed to be responsible of the generalization property, that is extrapolation from learning data under constraints. The fibers represent pre-semantic categories (Culioli, Thom), over which artificial languages are defined, with internal logics, intuitionist, classical or linear (Girard). Semantic functioning of a network is its ability to express theories in such a language for answering questions in output about input data. Quantities and spaces of semantic information are defined by analogy with the homological interpretation of Shannon's entropy of P.Baudot and D.Bennequin in 2015). They generalize the measures found by Carnap and Bar-Hillel (1952). Amazingly, the above semantical structures are classified by geometric fibrant objects in a closed model category of Quillen, then they give rise to homotopical invariants of DNNs and of their semantic functioning. Intentional type theories (Martin-Loef) organize these objects and fibrations between them. Information contents and exchanges are analyzed by Grothendieck's derivators.

The Brownian sphere is a random metric space, homeomorphic to the two-dimensional sphere, which arises as the universal scaling limit of many types of random planar maps. The direct construction of the Brownian sphere is via a continuous analogue of the Cori--Vauquelin--Schaeffer (CVS) bijection. The CVS bijection maps labeled trees to planar maps, and the continuous version maps Aldous' continuum random tree with Brownian labels (the Brownian snake) to the Brownian sphere. In this work, we describe the inverse of the continuous CVS bijection, by constructing the Brownian snake as a measurable function of the Brownian sphere. Special care is needed to work with the orientation of the Brownian sphere.

Agentic theorem provers combine a reasoning model, retrieval, search, and a proof assistant verifier, yet it remains unclear which components actually improve finite-budget proof success and why they help on real mathematical workloads. We study this question through statistical provability: the probability of reaching a verified proof within a budget on a specified stream of theorem instances. We model formal proof search as a finite-horizon reachability MDP with deterministic verifier dynamics, and show that under a faithful state abstraction the optimal success probability coincides with ordinary syntactic provability. We then analyze a simple but practically important pipeline: depth-wise offline action-value regression followed by greedy test-time proving. Our main theorem bounds the provability gap between the learned prover and the optimal prover by an occupancy-weighted sum of uniform action-value errors; in the common uniform-error reading, the leading complexity multiplier is the learned prover's average truncated proof length. The error decomposes into approximation error, geometric coverage of the training distribution, and Monte Carlo label noise, and improves to a fast rate under an action-gap margin condition. The result gives a component-sensitive account of why verifier feedback, retrieval, representation geometry, and proof-shortening mechanisms help on biased theorem workloads, without contradicting classical worst-case hardness.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

This monograph attempts a theory of every 'thing' that can be distinguished from other things in a statistical sense. The ensuing statistical independencies, mediated by Markov blankets, speak to a recursive composition of ensembles (of things) at increasingly higher spatiotemporal scales. This decomposition provides a description of small things; e.g., quantum mechanics - via the Schrodinger equation, ensembles of small things - via statistical mechanics and related fluctuation theorems, through to big things - via classical mechanics. These descriptions are complemented with a Bayesian mechanics for autonomous or active things. Although this work provides a formulation of every thing, its main contribution is to examine the implications of Markov blankets for self-organisation to nonequilibrium steady-state. In brief, we recover an information geometry and accompanying free energy principle that allows one to interpret the internal states of something as representing or making inferences about its external states. The ensuing Bayesian mechanics is compatible with quantum, statistical and classical mechanics and may offer a formal description of lifelike particles.

To generalise evolution families we consider systems of contractions {varphi(u, v)}_{(u, v) in E} defined on the edges of a graph G = (Ω, E). In this setup the Markov property, or divisibility, can be modelled via varphi(u, v)varphi(v, w) = varphi(u, w) for edges (u, v), (v, w), (u, w) in E. We obtain results in three settings: 1) contractive Banach space operators; 2) positive unital maps on C^{ast}-algebras; and 3) CPTP-maps on trace class operators on a Hilbert space. In the discrete setting, we are able to dilate possibly indivisible families of contractions to divisible families of operators with 'nice' properties (viz. surjective isometries resp. C^{ast}-algebraic automorphisms resp. unitary representations). In the special case of linearly ordered graphs equipped with the order topology, we establish sufficient conditions for strongly continuous dilations of possibly indivisible families in the Banach space and C^{ast}-algebra contexts. To achieve these results we work with string-rewriting systems, and make use of and extend dilation theorems of Stroescu [44], Kraus [23, 24], and vom Ende--Dirr [50].

We describe a library of mathematical finance built in the Lean 4 proof assistant, on top of Mathlib and the BrownianMotion package. It is broad: more than two hundred sorry-free theorems across eleven areas, from the measure-theoretic foundations of continuous-time stochastic calculus through derivative pricing to applied risk, portfolio, and fixed-income theory, and, to our knowledge, the most comprehensive machine-checked development of mathematical finance to date. Breadth is the setting, not the point. Two things make it more than a catalogue. It reaches into the continuous theory far enough to construct the L2 Itô integral as a bounded linear isometry and to derive, rather than assume, the risk-neutral pricing measure. And it audits its own faithfulness: every result is classified by how its Lean statement relates to the mathematics it claims, and a build-enforced gate pins the axioms each proof actually uses, so a reader can see precisely what has been proved and what has only been proved under added hypotheses. We close with a candid finding: a formal base over classical financial mathematics yields certified unification of known results rather than new financial theory. The contribution is therefore methodological and infrastructural, reusable verified foundations for mathematical finance, together with the faithfulness audit.

We introduce a unified mathematical and probabilistic framework for understanding and comparing diverse AI agent strategies. We bridge the gap between high-level agent design concepts, such as ReAct, multi-agent systems, and control flows, and a rigorous mathematical formulation. Our approach frames agentic processes as a chain of probabilities, enabling a detailed analysis of how different strategies manipulate these probabilities to achieve desired outcomes. Our framework provides a common language for discussing the trade-offs inherent in various agent architectures. One of our many key contributions is the introduction of the "Degrees of Freedom" concept, which intuitively differentiates the optimizable levers available for each approach, thereby guiding the selection of appropriate strategies for specific tasks. This work aims to enhance the clarity and precision in designing and evaluating AI agents, offering insights into maximizing the probability of successful actions within complex agentic systems.

The Functional Machine Calculus (Heijltjes 2022) is a new approach to unifying the imperative and functional programming paradigms. It extends the lambda-calculus, preserving the key features of confluent reduction and typed termination, to embed computational effects, evaluation strategies, and control flow operations. The first instalment modelled sequential higher-order computation with global store, input/output, probabilities, and non-determinism, and embedded both the call-by-name and call-by-value lambda-calculus, as well as Moggi's computational metalanguage and Levy's call-by-push-value. The present paper extends the calculus from sequential to branching and looping control flow. This allows the faithful embedding of a minimal but complete imperative language, including conditionals, exception handling, and iteration, as well as constants and algebraic data types. The calculus is defined through a simple operational semantics, extending the (simplified) Krivine machine for the lambda-calculus with multiple operand stacks to model effects and a continuation stack to model sequential, branching, and looping computation. It features a confluent reduction relation and a system of simple types that guarantees termination of the machine and strong normalization of reduction (in the absence of iteration). These properties carry over to the embedded imperative language, providing a unified functional-imperative model of computation that supports simple types, a direct and intuitive operational semantics, and a confluent reduction semantics.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may ask whether composing the inversions of the component processes gives the same belief update as the inversion of the whole. We answer this question affirmatively, showing that the relevant compositional structure is precisely that of the lens pattern, and that we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a corresponding fibred category. We define a general notion of (mixed) Bayesian lens, and discuss the (un)lawfulness of these lenses when their contravariant components are exact Bayesian inversions. We prove our main result both abstractly and concretely, for both discrete and continuous states, taking care to illustrate the common structures.

Recent work in probability-domain knowledge distillation has established axiomatic frameworks for temperature scaling, multi-teacher aggregation, and bias-variance trade-offs in single-stage settings. However, the mathematical behavior of recursive or multi-generation distillation remains poorly understood, with prior approaches relying primarily on empirical heuristics. In this work, we introduce an axiomatic and operator-theoretic framework for recursive meta-distillation, formalizing iterative knowledge distillation as a sequence of probability-distribution operators with explicit anchoring to base teachers. We define structural axioms for valid meta-teacher construction and prove the existence of non-trivial operator families satisfying these axioms without specifying particular algorithms or loss functions. Under mild realizability and convexity assumptions, we show that anchored recursive distillation induces contraction in KL divergence, yielding geometric convergence to base teacher distributions and a unique, globally attractive fixed point. The contribution is foundational rather than algorithmic: the framework characterizes when recursive distillation is mathematically well-posed and convergent rather than error-accumulating, independent of model architecture, optimization details, or specific operator instantiations. These results provide a theoretical basis for understanding stability, bias-variance behavior, and failure modes in iterative and multi-teacher distillation under capacity constraints.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

The advancement in generative AI could be boosted with more accessible mathematics. Beyond human-AI chat, large language models (LLMs) are emerging in programming, algorithm discovery, and theorem proving, yet their genomics application is limited. This project introduces Math Agents and mathematical embedding as fresh entries to the "Moore's Law of Mathematics", using a GPT-based workflow to convert equations from literature into LaTeX and Python formats. While many digital equation representations exist, there's a lack of automated large-scale evaluation tools. LLMs are pivotal as linguistic user interfaces, providing natural language access for human-AI chat and formal languages for large-scale AI-assisted computational infrastructure. Given the infinite formal possibility spaces, Math Agents, which interact with math, could potentially shift us from "big data" to "big math". Math, unlike the more flexible natural language, has properties subject to proof, enabling its use beyond traditional applications like high-validation math-certified icons for AI alignment aims. This project aims to use Math Agents and mathematical embeddings to address the ageing issue in information systems biology by applying multiscalar physics mathematics to disease models and genomic data. Generative AI with episodic memory could help analyse causal relations in longitudinal health records, using SIR Precision Health models. Genomic data is suggested for addressing the unsolved Alzheimer's disease problem.

Nowadays, formal theorem provers have made monumental progress on high-school and competition-level mathematics, but few of them generalize to more advanced mathematics. In this paper, we present REAL-Prover, a new open-source stepwise theorem prover for Lean 4 to push this boundary. This prover, based on our fine-tuned large language model (REAL-Prover-v1) and integrated with a retrieval system (Leansearch-PS), notably boosts performance on solving college-level mathematics problems. To train REAL-Prover-v1, we developed HERALD-AF, a data extraction pipeline that converts natural language math problems into formal statements, and a new open-source Lean 4 interactive environment (Jixia-interactive) to facilitate synthesis data collection. In our experiments, our prover using only supervised fine-tune achieves competitive results with a 23.7% success rate (Pass@64) on the ProofNet dataset-comparable to state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. To further evaluate our approach, we introduce FATE-M, a new benchmark focused on algebraic problems, where our prover achieves a SOTA success rate of 56.7% (Pass@64).

We investigate the mathematical capabilities of ChatGPT by testing it on publicly available datasets, as well as hand-crafted ones, and measuring its performance against other models trained on a mathematical corpus, such as Minerva. We also test whether ChatGPT can be a useful assistant to professional mathematicians by emulating various use cases that come up in the daily professional activities of mathematicians (question answering, theorem searching). In contrast to formal mathematics, where large databases of formal proofs are available (e.g., the Lean Mathematical Library), current datasets of natural-language mathematics, used to benchmark language models, only cover elementary mathematics. We address this issue by introducing a new dataset: GHOSTS. It is the first natural-language dataset made and curated by working researchers in mathematics that (1) aims to cover graduate-level mathematics and (2) provides a holistic overview of the mathematical capabilities of language models. We benchmark ChatGPT on GHOSTS and evaluate performance against fine-grained criteria. We make this new dataset publicly available to assist a community-driven comparison of ChatGPT with (future) large language models in terms of advanced mathematical comprehension. We conclude that contrary to many positive reports in the media (a potential case of selection bias), ChatGPT's mathematical abilities are significantly below those of an average mathematics graduate student. Our results show that ChatGPT often understands the question but fails to provide correct solutions. Hence, if your goal is to use it to pass a university exam, you would be better off copying from your average peer!

Premise selection is a crucial yet challenging step in mathematical formalization, especially for users with limited experience. Due to the lack of available formalization projects, existing approaches that leverage language models often suffer from data scarcity. In this work, we introduce an innovative method for training a premise retriever to support the formalization of mathematics. Our approach employs a BERT model to embed proof states and premises into a shared latent space. The retrieval model is trained within a contrastive learning framework and incorporates a domain-specific tokenizer along with a fine-grained similarity computation method. Experimental results show that our model is highly competitive compared to existing baselines, achieving strong performance while requiring fewer computational resources. Performance is further enhanced through the integration of a re-ranking module. To streamline the formalization process, we will release a search engine that enables users to query Mathlib theorems directly using proof states, significantly improving accessibility and efficiency. Codes are available at https://github.com/ruc-ai4math/Premise-Retrieval.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Neurosymbolic approaches integrating large language models with formal reasoning have recently achieved human-level performance on mathematics competition problems in algebra, geometry and number theory. In comparison, combinatorics remains a challenging domain, characterized by a lack of appropriate benchmarks and theorem libraries. To address this gap, we introduce CombiBench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising 100 combinatorial problems, each formalized in Lean~4 and paired with its corresponding informal statement. The problem set covers a wide spectrum of difficulty levels, ranging from middle school to IMO and university level, and span over ten combinatorial topics. CombiBench is suitable for testing IMO solving capabilities since it includes all IMO combinatorial problems since 2000 (except IMO 2004 P3 as its statement contain an images). Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive and standardized evaluation framework, dubbed Fine-Eval (for Fill-in-the-blank in Lean Evaluation), for formal mathematics. It accommodates not only proof-based problems but also, for the first time, the evaluation of fill-in-the-blank questions. Using Fine-Eval as the evaluation method and Kimina Lean Server as the backend, we benchmark several LLMs on CombiBench and observe that their capabilities for formally solving combinatorial problems remain limited. Among all models tested (none of which has been trained for this particular task), Kimina-Prover attains the best results, solving 7 problems (out of 100) under both ``with solution'' and ``without solution'' scenarios. We open source the benchmark dataset alongside with the code of the proposed evaluation method at https://github.com/MoonshotAI/CombiBench/.

Scientific discovery is not only answer generation but revision of the representational regime in which evidence, artifacts, operations, and verifiers are typed. We develop a category-theoretic account of agentic discovery for materials science. In a fixed regime b with schema category S_b, the system state is a copresheaf I_t: S_b -> Set, and provenance is the category of elements \int_{S_b} I_t. Fixed-regime operation is an update on such states, endofunctorial only when provenance-preserving refinements are specified and preserved. Discovery is instead a verified regime transition u: S_b -> S_b': old artifacts are preserved, transported by the left Kan extension Lan_u I_t, and compared with the post-transition state to identify residual content beyond functorial transport. This separates retrieval, search, and discovery without subjective novelty. We instantiate the framework in two systems. In Builder/Breaker, a protein-mechanics world model is revised under a Minimum Description Length gate; the accepted law expresses within-chain flexibility as all-mode elastic compliance conditioned by slow collective-mode participation, or mode-conditioned compliance. In CategoryScienceClaw, typed skills, artifacts, open needs, workflow mutation, gates, stress tests, and public discourse become a proof-carrying knowledge-computation graph. A fiber-network example records candidate models, rejected alternatives, an AIC gate, perturbation tests, and an accepted orientation-tensor anisotropic stiffness surrogate over an isotropic fiber-count descriptor. Together, the cases show how category theory can be both a mathematical language for discovery and an engineering specification for self-revising AI discovery systems.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

We present PutnamBench, a new multilingual benchmark for evaluating the ability of neural theorem-provers to solve competition mathematics problems. PutnamBench consists of 1697 hand-constructed formalizations of 640 theorems sourced from the William Lowell Putnam Mathematical Competition, the premier undergraduate-level mathematics competition in North America. All the theorems have formalizations in Lean 4 and Isabelle; a substantial subset also has Coq formalizations. Proving the theorems requires significant problem-solving ability and proficiency in a broad range of topics taught in undergraduate mathematics courses. We use PutnamBench to evaluate several established neural and symbolic theorem-provers. These approaches can only solve a handful of the PutnamBench problems, establishing the benchmark as a difficult open challenge for research on neural theorem-proving. PutnamBench is available at https://github.com/trishullab/PutnamBench.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

A key to knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is to choose a proper representation space, e.g., point-wise Euclidean space and complex vector space. In this paper, we propose a unified perspective of embedding and introduce uncertainty into KGE from the view of group theory. Our model can incorporate existing models (i.e., generality), ensure the computation is tractable (i.e., efficiency) and enjoy the expressive power of complex random variables (i.e., expressiveness). The core idea is that we embed entities/relations as elements of a symmetric group, i.e., permutations of a set. Permutations of different sets can reflect different properties of embedding. And the group operation of symmetric groups is easy to compute. In specific, we show that the embedding of many existing models, point vectors, can be seen as elements of a symmetric group. To reflect uncertainty, we first embed entities/relations as permutations of a set of random variables. A permutation can transform a simple random variable into a complex random variable for greater expressiveness, called a normalizing flow. We then define scoring functions by measuring the similarity of two normalizing flows, namely NFE. We construct several instantiating models and prove that they are able to learn logical rules. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of introducing uncertainty and our model. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/NFE.

Large language models have recently made significant progress to generate rigorous mathematical proofs. In contrast, utilizing LLMs for theorem proving in formal languages (such as Lean) remains challenging and computationally expensive, particularly when addressing problems at the undergraduate level and beyond. In this work, we present Seed-Prover 1.5, a formal theorem-proving model trained via large-scale agentic reinforcement learning, alongside an efficient test-time scaling (TTS) workflow. Through extensive interactions with Lean and other tools, the model continuously accumulates experience during the RL process, substantially enhancing the capability and efficiency of formal theorem proving. Furthermore, leveraging recent advancements in natural language proving, our TTS workflow efficiently bridges the gap between natural and formal languages. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, Seed-Prover 1.5 achieves superior performance with a smaller compute budget. It solves 88\% of PutnamBench (undergraduate-level), 80\% of Fate-H (graduate-level), and 33\% of Fate-X (PhD-level) problems. Notably, using our system, we solved 11 out of 12 problems from Putnam 2025 within 9 hours. Our findings suggest that scaling learning from experience, driven by high-quality formal feedback, holds immense potential for the future of formal mathematical reasoning.

In this paper, we study quantum Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams(OBDD) model; it is a restricted version of read-once quantum branching programs, with respect to "width" complexity. It is known that the maximal gap between deterministic and quantum complexities is exponential. But there are few examples of functions with such a gap. We present a new technique ("reordering") for proving lower bounds and upper bounds for OBDD with an arbitrary order of input variables if we have similar bounds for the natural order. Using this transformation, we construct a total function REQ such that the deterministic OBDD complexity of it is at least 2^{Ω(n / log n)}, and the quantum OBDD complexity of it is at most O(n^2/log n). It is the biggest known gap for explicit functions not representable by OBDDs of a linear width. Another function(shifted equality function) allows us to obtain a gap 2^{Ω(n)} vs O(n^2). Moreover, we prove the bounded error quantum and probabilistic OBDD width hierarchies for complexity classes of Boolean functions. Additionally, using "reordering" method we extend a hierarchy for read-k-times Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams (k-OBDD) of polynomial width, for k = o(n / log^3 n). We prove a similar hierarchy for bounded error probabilistic k-OBDDs of polynomial, superpolynomial and subexponential width. The extended abstract of this work was presented on International Computer Science Symposium in Russia, CSR 2017, Kazan, Russia, June 8 -- 12, 2017

We introduce the finite-horizon first-order rank profile of a language L subseteq Σ^*: the least quantifier rank needed by an FO[<] sentence to classify membership in L correctly on all words of length at most n. The invariant measures quantifier depth only; formula size is deliberately not bounded. First, we prove a rank calculus that is independent of regularity. Every language satisfies ρ_L(n) le lceil log_2 n rceil + 4, via balanced first-order distance formulas and exact-word definitions. Moreover, sup_n ρ_L(n) < infty holds exactly when L is globally FO[<]-definable, and the supremum equals the minimum quantifier rank of such a definition. Second, for regular languages we prove a sharp aperiodicity gap: if the syntactic monoid of L is aperiodic, then ρ_L(n) = O(1); otherwise ρ_L(n) = log_2 n + O_L(1). The lower bound extracts a nontrivial cyclic component from the syntactic monoid and combines it with an Ehrenfeucht-Fraisse power lemma for long repetitions of a fixed word. Thus, for full FO[<] quantifier rank, regular languages admit no intermediate finite-horizon growth between bounded and logarithmic rank.

This paper studies propositional proof systems in which lines are sequents of decision trees or branching programs - deterministic and nondeterministic. The systems LDT and LNDT are propositional proof systems in which lines represent deterministic or non-deterministic decision trees. Branching programs are modeled as decision dags. Adding extension to LDT and LNDT gives systems eLDT and eLNDT in which lines represent deterministic and non-deterministic branching programs, respectively. Deterministic and non-deterministic branching programs correspond to log-space (L) and nondeterministic log-space (NL). Thus the systems eLDT and eLNDT are propositional proof systems that reason with (nonuniform) L and NL properties. The main results of the paper are simulation and non-simulation results for tree-like and dag-like proofs in the systems LDT, LNDT, eLDT, and eLNDT. These systems are also compared with Frege systems, constantdepth Frege systems and extended Frege systems

Group polarization, the phenomenon where individuals become more extreme after interacting, has been gaining attention, especially with the rise of social media shaping people's opinions. Recent interest has emerged in formal reasoning about group polarization using logical systems. In this work we consider the modal logic PNL that captures the notion of agents agreeing or disagreeing on a given topic. Our contribution involves enhancing PNL with advanced formal reasoning techniques, instead of relying on axiomatic systems for analyzing group polarization. To achieve this, we introduce a semantic game tailored for (hybrid) extensions of PNL. This game fosters dynamic reasoning about concrete network models, aligning with our goal of strengthening PNL's effectiveness in studying group polarization. We show how this semantic game leads to a provability game by systemically exploring the truth in all models. This leads to the first cut-free sequent systems for some variants of PNL. Using polarization of formulas, the proposed calculi can be modularly adapted to consider different frame properties of the underlying model.

Remarkable progress has been made on automated reasoning with natural text, by using Language Models (LMs) and methods such as Chain-of-Thought and Selection-Inference. These techniques search for proofs in the forward direction from axioms to the conclusion, which suffers from a combinatorial explosion of the search space, and thus high failure rates for problems requiring longer chains of reasoning. The classical automated reasoning literature has shown that reasoning in the backward direction (i.e. from the intended conclusion to supporting axioms) is significantly more efficient at proof-finding. Importing this intuition into the LM setting, we develop a Backward Chaining algorithm, called LAMBADA, that decomposes reasoning into four sub-modules. These sub-modules are simply implemented by few-shot prompted LM inference. We show that LAMBADA achieves sizable accuracy boosts over state-of-the-art forward reasoning methods on challenging logical reasoning datasets, particularly when deep and accurate proof chains are required.

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Mathematical knowledge is organized around statements and their dependencies, but this structure is exposed unevenly: informal papers cite mostly at the document level, while formal libraries record fine-grained dependencies over a much smaller body of mathematics. We introduce TheoremGraph, a unified statement-level dependency graph spanning both informal and formal mathematics. On the informal side, we parse 11.7M theorem-like environments from mathematics arXiv and recover 18.3M candidate directed dependencies, each labeled by the extractor that proposed it so downstream users can trade coverage for precision. On the formal side, we release LeanGraph, a Lean 4 elaborator-level extractor producing 388,105 declaration nodes and 11.3M typed edges across 25 Lean projects. We bridge the two graphs by embedding generated natural-language slogans into a shared semantic space, linking related statements across papers and across the informal/formal divide; an LLM judge affirms 47,952 such matches above a 0.8 cosine floor, with the judge-acceptance rate rising from 48% across the floor to 87% in the >=0.9 tier. On formal concept retrieval, our name-and-signature representation with graph expansion comes within 0.5pp of LeanSearch v2's reranked Recall@10 (0.775 vs. 0.780) without an LM reranker. We release the dataset, extractors, HTTP API, and MCP interface as infrastructure for mathematical search, attribution, and retrieval-augmented reasoning, available at theoremsearch.com and huggingface.co/datasets/uw-math-ai/theorem-matching.

We study the realizability of simplicial complexes with a given pair of integer sequences, representing the node degree distribution and the facet size distribution, respectively. While the s-uniform variant of the problem is NP-complete when s geq 3, we identify two populations of input sequences, most of which can be solved in polynomial time using a recursive algorithm that we contribute. Combining with a sampler for the simplicial configuration model [J.-G. Young et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 032312 (2017)], we facilitate the efficient sampling of simplicial ensembles from arbitrary degree and size distributions. We find that, contrary to expectations based on dyadic networks, increasing the nodes' degrees reduces the number of loops in simplicial complexes. Our work unveils a fundamental constraint on the degree-size sequences and sheds light on further analysis of higher-order phenomena based on local structures.

LLM-based formal proof assistants (e.g., in Lean) hold great promise for automating mathematical discovery. But beyond syntactic correctness, do these systems truly understand mathematical structure as humans do? We investigate this question through the lens of mathematical inequalities -- a fundamental tool across many domains. While modern provers can solve basic inequalities, we probe their ability to handle human-intuitive compositionality. We introduce Ineq-Comp, a benchmark built from elementary inequalities through systematic transformations, including variable duplication, algebraic rewriting, and multi-step composition. Although these problems remain easy for humans, we find that most provers -- including Goedel, STP, and Kimina-7B -- struggle significantly. DeepSeek-Prover-V2-7B shows relative robustness -- possibly because it is trained to decompose the problems into sub-problems -- but still suffers a 20\% performance drop (pass@32). Strikingly, performance remains poor for all models even when formal proofs of the constituent parts are provided in context, revealing that the source of weakness is indeed in compositional reasoning. Our results expose a persisting gap between the generalization behavior of current AI provers and human mathematical intuition.

This report overviews our ongoing work in enriching chain-of-thoughts datasets requiring arithmetical reasoning with the integration of non-parametric components, such as a calculator. We conduct an analysis of prominent relevant datasets such as GSM8K, Ape210K, AQuA-RAT, and MathQA and propose a machine-processable HTML-like format specifically tailored for working with semi-structured chains. By converting the datasets into this unified format, we enable the effective integration of large language models and symbolic systems, empowering them to tackle arithmetical reasoning tasks more efficiently.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

We present DeGAS, a differentiable Gaussian approximate semantics for loopless probabilistic programs that enables sample-free, gradient-based optimization in models with both continuous and discrete components. DeGAS evaluates programs under a Gaussian-mixture semantics and replaces measure-zero predicates and discrete branches with a vanishing smoothing, yielding closed-form expressions for posterior and path probabilities. We prove differentiability of these quantities with respect to program parameters, enabling end-to-end optimization via standard automatic differentiation, without Monte Carlo estimators. On thirteen benchmark programs, DeGAS achieves accuracy and runtime competitive with variational inference and MCMC. Importantly, it reliably tackles optimization problems where sampling-based baselines fail to converge due to conditioning involving continuous variables.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled the development of numerous specialized, task-specific variants. However, the maintenance and deployment of these individual models present substantial challenges in terms of resource utilization and operational efficiency. In this work, we propose the Mixture of Distributions (MoD) framework, a novel approach for merging LLMs that operates directly on their output probability distributions, rather than on model weights. Unlike traditional weight-averaging methods, MoD effectively preserves the specialized capabilities of individual models while enabling efficient knowledge sharing across tasks. Through extensive experimentation on mathematical reasoning benchmarks using Qwen2.5 models, we demonstrate that MoD significantly outperforms existing model merging techniques across multiple benchmarks. All code, data, and experimental materials are published at https://github.com/knovel-eng/mod.

We develop a discipline-agnostic emergence calculus that treats theories as fixed points of idempotent operators acting on descriptions. We show that, once processes are composable but access to the underlying system is mediated by a bounded observational interface, a canonical toolkit of six closure-changing primitives (P1--P6) is unavoidable. The framework unifies order-theoretic closure operators with dynamics-induced endomaps E_{τ,f} built from a Markov kernel, a coarse-graining lens, and a time scale τ. We introduce a computable total-variation idempotence defect for E_{τ,f}; small retention error implies approximate idempotence and yields stable "objects" packaged at the chosen τ within a fixed lens. For directionality, we define an arrow-of-time functional as the path-space KL divergence between forward and time-reversed trajectories and prove it is monotone under coarse-graining (data processing); we also formalize a protocol-trap audit showing that protocol holonomy alone cannot sustain asymmetry without a genuine affinity in the lifted dynamics. Finally, we prove a finite forcing-style counting lemma: relative to a partition-based theory, definable predicate extensions are exponentially rare, giving a clean anti-saturation mechanism for strict ladder climbing.

Machine-assisted theorem proving refers to the process of conducting structured reasoning to automatically generate proofs for mathematical theorems. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using machine learning models in conjunction with proof assistants to perform this task. In this paper, we introduce Pantograph, a tool that provides a versatile interface to the Lean 4 proof assistant and enables efficient proof search via powerful search algorithms such as Monte Carlo Tree Search. In addition, Pantograph enables high-level reasoning by enabling a more robust handling of Lean 4's inference steps. We provide an overview of Pantograph's architecture and features. We also report on an illustrative use case: using machine learning models and proof sketches to prove Lean 4 theorems. Pantograph's innovative features pave the way for more advanced machine learning models to perform complex proof searches and high-level reasoning, equipping future researchers to design more versatile and powerful theorem provers.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

In this work, we present two results: The first result is the formalization of Tutte's theorem in Lean, a key theorem concerning matchings in graph theory. As this formalization is ready to be integrated in Lean's mathlib, it provides a valuable step in the path towards formalizing research-level mathematics in this area. The second result is a framework for doing educational formalization projects. This framework provides a structure to learn to formalize mathematics with minimal teacher input. This framework applies to both traditional academic settings and independent community-driven environments. We demonstrate the framework's use by connecting it to the process of formalizing Tutte's theorem.

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the so-called 'decision-theoretic approach' (Deutsch, 1999; Wallace, 2003, 2007, 2012), I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information - where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which I give an exact meaning via constructor theory), necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch-Wallace-type argument - thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles.

Real-world decision-making, from tax compliance assessment to medical diagnosis, requires aggregating multiple noisy and potentially contradictory evidence sources. Existing approaches either lack explicit uncertainty quantification (neural aggregation methods) or rely on manually engineered discrete predicates (probabilistic logic frameworks), limiting scalability to unstructured data. We introduce Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a framework that transforms Variational Autoencoder (VAE) latent posteriors into soft likelihood factors for Sum-Product Network (SPN) inference, enabling tractable probabilistic reasoning over unstructured evidence while preserving calibrated uncertainty estimates. We instantiate LPF as LPF-SPN (structured factor-based inference) and LPF-Learned (end-to-end learned aggregation), enabling a principled comparison between explicit probabilistic reasoning and learned aggregation under a shared uncertainty representation. Across eight domains (seven synthetic and the FEVER benchmark), LPF-SPN achieves high accuracy (up to 97.8%), low calibration error (ECE 1.4%), and strong probabilistic fit, substantially outperforming evidential deep learning, LLMs and graph-based baselines over 15 random seeds. Contributions: (1) A framework bridging latent uncertainty representations with structured probabilistic reasoning. (2) Dual architectures enabling controlled comparison of reasoning paradigms. (3) Reproducible training methodology with seed selection. (4) Evaluation against EDL, BERT, R-GCN, and large language model baselines. (5) Cross-domain validation. (6) Formal guarantees in a companion paper.

The reverse derivative is a fundamental operation in machine learning and automatic differentiation. This paper gives a direct axiomatization of a category with a reverse derivative operation, in a similar style to that given by Cartesian differential categories for a forward derivative. Intriguingly, a category with a reverse derivative also has a forward derivative, but the converse is not true. In fact, we show explicitly what a forward derivative is missing: a reverse derivative is equivalent to a forward derivative with a dagger structure on its subcategory of linear maps. Furthermore, we show that these linear maps form an additively enriched category with dagger biproducts.

We introduce a principled probabilistic framework for reward-guided decoding in large language models, addressing the limitations of standard decoding methods that optimize token-level likelihood rather than sequence-level quality. Our method defines a reward-augmented target distribution over complete sequences by combining model transition probabilities with prefix-dependent reward potentials. Importantly, the approach is training-free: it leaves model weights unchanged and instead modifies the inference distribution via reward potentials, with all gains arising purely from inference-time sampling. To sample from this distribution, we develop Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, including a computationally efficient prefix-only variant and a lookahead variant whose intermediate targets match the exact marginals of the full sequence distribution. The framework also integrates resample-move updates with Metropolis-Hastings rejuvenation and supports block-wise generation, subsuming common decoding strategies such as temperature sampling and power-tempered objectives. Empirical results across three 7B models show significant gains. On code generation (HumanEval), our method improves base performance by up to 54.9% and surpasses the strongest sampling baselines by 9.1%-15.3%. On mathematical reasoning (MATH500), it achieves gains of up to 8.8%. Notably, it reaches 87.8% on HumanEval and 78.4% on MATH500 with Qwen2.5-7B, consistently outperforming the reinforcement learning method GRPO.

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where dependent assets are mispriced, allowing for purchasing (or selling) a certain outcome for less than (or more than) 1, guaranteeing profit. This phenomenon, known as arbitrage, could enable sophisticated participants to exploit such inconsistencies. In this paper, we conduct an empirical arbitrage analysis on Polymarket data to answer three key questions: (Q1) What conditions give rise to arbitrage (Q2) Does arbitrage actually occur on Polymarket and (Q3) Has anyone exploited these opportunities. A major challenge in analyzing arbitrage between related markets lies in the scalability of comparisons across a large number of markets and conditions, with a naive analysis requiring O(2^{n+m}) comparisons. To overcome this, we employ a heuristic-driven reduction strategy based on timeliness, topical similarity, and combinatorial relationships, further validated by expert input. Our study reveals two distinct forms of arbitrage on Polymarket: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage, which occurs within a single market or condition, and Combinatorial Arbitrage, which spans across multiple markets. We use on-chain historical order book data to analyze when these types of arbitrage opportunities have existed, and when they have been executed by users. We find a realized estimate of 40 million USD of profit extracted.

This paper introduces an innovative approach to analyzing and improving multi-hop reasoning in AI systems by drawing inspiration from Hamiltonian mechanics. We propose a novel framework that maps reasoning chains in embedding spaces to Hamiltonian systems, allowing us to leverage powerful analytical tools from classical physics. Our method defines a Hamiltonian function that balances the progression of reasoning (kinetic energy) against the relevance to the question at hand (potential energy). Using this framework, we analyze a large dataset of reasoning chains from a multi-hop question-answering task, revealing intriguing patterns that distinguish valid from invalid reasoning. We show that valid reasoning chains have lower Hamiltonian energy and move in ways that make the best trade-off between getting more information and answering the right question. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application of this framework to steer the creation of more efficient reasoning algorithms within AI systems. Our results not only provide new insights into the nature of valid reasoning but also open up exciting possibilities for physics-inspired approaches to understanding and improving artificial intelligence.

In order to avoid well-know paradoxes associated with self-referential definitions, higher-order dependent type theories stratify the theory using a countably infinite hierarchy of universes (also known as sorts), Type_0 : Type_1 : cdots . Such type systems are called cumulative if for any type A we have that A : Type_{i} implies A : Type_{i+1}. The predicative calculus of inductive constructions (pCIC) which forms the basis of the Coq proof assistant, is one such system. In this paper we present and establish the soundness of the predicative calculus of cumulative inductive constructions (pCuIC) which extends the cumulativity relation to inductive types.

The combination of verifiable languages and LLMs has significantly influenced both the mathematical and computer science communities because it provides a rigorous foundation for theorem proving. Recent advancements in the field provide foundation models and sophisticated agentic systems pushing the boundaries of formal mathematical reasoning to approach the natural language capability of LLMs. However, little attention has been given to the formal physics reasoning, which also heavily relies on similar problem-solving and theorem-proving frameworks. To solve this problem, this paper presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first approach to enhance formal theorem proving in the physics domain. We compose a dedicated dataset PhysLeanData for the task. It is composed of theorems sampled from PhysLean and data generated by a conjecture-based formal data generation pipeline. In the training pipeline, we leverage DeepSeek-Prover-V2-7B, a strong open-source mathematical theorem prover, and apply Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) to train our model PhysProver. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that, using only sim5K training samples, PhysProver achieves an overall 2.4\% improvement in multiple sub-domains. Furthermore, after formal physics training, we observe 1.3\% gains on the MiniF2F-Test benchmark, which indicates non-trivial generalization beyond physics domains and enhancement for formal math capability as well. The results highlight the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach, which provides a paradigm for extending formal provers outside mathematical domains. To foster further research, we will release both our dataset and model to the community.

Polytrees are a subclass of Bayesian networks that seek to capture the conditional dependencies between a set of n variables as a directed forest and are motivated by their more efficient inference and improved interpretability. Since the problem of learning the best polytree is NP-hard, we study which restrictions make it more tractable by considering for example in-degree bounds, properties of score functions measuring the quality of a polytree, and approximation algorithms. We devise an algorithm that finds the optimal polytree in time O((2+ε)^n) for arbitrarily small ε> 0 and any constant in-degree bound k, improving over the fastest previously known algorithm of time complexity O(3^n). We further give polynomial-time algorithms for finding a polytree whose score is within a factor of k from the optimal one for arbitrary scores and a factor of 2 for additive ones. Many of the results are complemented by (nearly) tight lower bounds for either the time complexity or the approximation factors.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as integrated data-science agents, combining abstract reasoning with advanced tool use. Yet the relevant benchmark landscape largely divides into symbolic causal reasoning benchmarks without realistic data analysis or data analysis benchmarks without a principled causal data-generating structure. Furthermore, existing causal evaluation datasets are often restricted to curated examples from existing sources, with diversity coming from limited templatized variations rather than from systematic generation of novel synthetic causal structures. We introduce CausalDS, a benchmark for evaluating causal reasoning in agentic data-science workflows. Each benchmark instance is a scene consisting of a sampled structural causal model (SCM) with generated observational data and an accompanying synthetic natural-language story grounded in a realistic domain. We optionally ground the composition of the benchmark components in empirical distributions obtained from real-world datasets, thus retaining empirical structure while reducing the "causal parrot" risk through completely synthetic generation. From each scene, we then derive tasks spanning all three of Pearl's rungs, with typical data-science prediction tasks appearing as Rung 1. Most tasks include a data science coding component, where the model typically needs to use several tools to arrive at the final answer due to the frequent presence of imperfect observations, which are generated by an observation model. Additionally, recognizing when a question admits no warranted answer and abstaining is treated as a first-class scored outcome. The benchmark thus jointly evaluates symbolic causal reasoning, data science, uncertainty quantification, abstention, and tool use/coding.

Existing LLM agent frameworks lack formal semantics: there is no principled way to determine whether an agent configuration is well-formed or will terminate. We present λ_A, a typed lambda calculus for agent composition that extends the simply-typed lambda calculus with oracle calls, bounded fixpoints (the ReAct loop), probabilistic choice, and mutable environments. We prove type safety, termination of bounded fixpoints, and soundness of derived lint rules, with partial Coq mechanization (1,567 lines, 43 completed proofs). As a practical application, we derive a lint tool that detects structural configuration errors directly from the operational semantics. An evaluation on 835 real-world GitHub agent configurations shows that 94.1% are structurally incomplete under λ_A, with YAML-only lint precision at 54%, rising to 96--100% under joint YAML+Python AST analysis on 175 samples. This gap quantifies, for the first time, the degree of semantic entanglement between declarative configuration and imperative code in the agent ecosystem. We further show that five mainstream paradigms (LangGraph, CrewAI, AutoGen, OpenAI SDK, Dify) embed as typed λ_A fragments, establishing λ_A as a unifying calculus for LLM agent composition.

We present FIMO, an innovative dataset comprising formal mathematical problem statements sourced from the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) Shortlisted Problems. Designed to facilitate advanced automated theorem proving at the IMO level, FIMO is currently tailored for the Lean formal language. It comprises 149 formal problem statements, accompanied by both informal problem descriptions and their corresponding LaTeX-based informal proofs. Through initial experiments involving GPT-4, our findings underscore the existing limitations in current methodologies, indicating a substantial journey ahead before achieving satisfactory IMO-level automated theorem proving outcomes.

This is an essay in what might be called ``mathematical metaphysics.'' There is a fundamental duality that run through mathematics and the natural sciences. The duality starts as the logical level; it is represented by the Boolean logic of subsets and the logic of partitions since subsets and partitions are category-theoretic dual concepts. In more basic terms, it starts with the duality between the elements (Its) of subsets and the distinctions (Dits, i.e., ordered pairs of elements in different blocks) of a partition. Mathematically, the Its & Dits duality is fully developed in category theory as the reverse-the-arrows duality. The quantitative versions of subsets and partitions are developed as probability theory and information theory (based on logical entropy). Classical physics was based on a view of reality as definite all the way down. In contrast, quantum physics embodies (objective) indefiniteness. And finally, there are the two fundamental dual mechanisms at work in biology, the selectionist mechanism and the generative mechanism, two mechanisms that embody the fundamental duality.

As automated reasoning systems advance rapidly, there is a growing need for research-level formal mathematical problems to accurately evaluate their capabilities. To address this, we present Formal Conjectures, an evolving benchmark of currently 2615 mathematical problem statements formalized in Lean 4. Sourced from areas of active mathematical research, the dataset features 1029 open research conjectures providing a zero-contamination benchmark for mathematical proof discovery, and 836 solved problems for proof autoformalization. Notably, the repository provides a structured interface connecting mathematicians who formalize and clarify problems with the AI systems and humans attempting to solve them. Demonstrating its immediate utility, the benchmark has already been leveraged to make new mathematical discoveries, including the resolution of open research conjectures. We describe our approach to ensuring the correctness of these formalizations in a collaborative open-source project where contributions stem from an active community. In this framework, AI-generated proofs and disproofs serve as a valuable auditing mechanism to iteratively improve the fidelity of the benchmark. Finally, we provide a standardized evaluation setup and report baseline results on frozen evaluation subsets, demonstrating a climbable signal that measures the current frontier of automated reasoning on research-level mathematics.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.