Daily Papers

RANSAC scoring and local optimization (LO) impose different robustness requirements, motivating the separation of hypothesis selection from refinement. We systematically isolate the effects of robust-loss shape, incorrectly specified inlier scales, and optimization strategy on essential matrix, fundamental matrix, and homography estimation. A profile-marginal score marginalizes the nuisance inlier scale and selects an inlier partition, from which we estimate the scale that sets the LO loss width; this makes LO robust to an inlier scale specified too large, whereas one specified too small degrades selection itself. Refinement needs gradient from correspondences the seed currently rejects: optimizers that reweight from current residuals stay pinned to their seed, whereas methods with broad basins recover strongly perturbed seeds yet degrade accurate score-selected hypotheses, so basin size alone is insufficient to assess RANSAC LO. Joint half-quadratic optimization balances the two and is the most consistent strategy across model classes. An optimizer matched to the profile-marginal score, which never decreases it, does not reach the best accuracy, challenging the prescription that scoring and refinement objectives should match. Composed from these findings, our RANSAC reduces the median essential-matrix pose error of a state-of-the-art RANSAC on PhotoTourism from 2.23 degrees to 1.58 degrees with a correctly specified inlier scale and from 38 degrees to 6.2 degrees when it is grossly misspecified (128x too large).

Language models are increasingly used to create synthetic survey samples, also called silicon samples. Decision models are a new class of language models that return a probability for each point of a rating scale instead of text. We ask whether these models, or the newest generative LLMs, can stand in for human respondents on a psychometric survey. We test fourteen decision models from eleven providers and 47 generative LLMs on an open Lithuanian organisational-psychology survey (n=263, 68 items), with 100 real respondent profiles, the Psychometric Similarity Score (PSS) and statistical baselines. The best generative model, MiniMax M3, reaches PSS 0.813. This is level with a Gaussian copula fit only on other respondents (0.824) and below a copula fit in sample (0.927). A second sample of 100 real people scores below the best models, so at this size PSS cannot rank them against real respondents. In 5 of 10 product lines the newest generative release scores below an earlier release of the same line beyond resampling noise, and none gains beyond it. With the default rounded readout, 13 of 14 decision models score below the generative reference gpt-5.4-mini. Of the 47 generative models, 33 reproduce the pattern of item correlations better than any decision model. Averaged over respondents, the probability vectors are much closer to the human item marginals than rounded answers. They also rank respondents about as well as a profile regression fit on 163 real people. As forecasts of each person's own answers, however, every decision model is worse than the answer frequencies of other respondents, mainly because its average vector differs from them. The profile regression improves on these frequencies by only 1.0%, so the profile fields say little about how a person answers. Synthetic respondents built on such profiles should therefore aim at sample-level fidelity.

Prior work on a social web highlighter located individuality in selection -- which documents a person chooses to highlight -- but measured it cross-sectionally. We ask the temporal question: is a reader's selection signature a trait or a state? We freeze each reader's first six months of highlighting as a profile and track its own-vs-other advantage on their later selections at growing gaps (to 24+ months), with negatives drawn from the same calendar era -- so supply drift cannot masquerade as personal drift -- at a coarse global level and at a fine level whose negatives and controls come from the reader's own interest neighborhood; the anchor cell reproduces the prior cross-sectional level (+0.188 vs +0.169), validating the harness. Four results. Within the same users, the fine-layer advantage shows no statistically detectable paired decline at any horizon (6-12 month retention R = 1.00 [0.85, 1.18], n = 212; the farthest bin is compatible with a modest decline; the only contrast whose interval excludes zero is the coarse layer at 12-24 months, about 13%). The signal is not reducible to repeated domains (~90% survives excluding all profile sources). Within-person drift is slow (a recent-half profile beats the old half by +0.042). Prospectively, personal profiles -- even one built from a reader's earliest documents, median 20 months before evaluation -- rank their next reads at roughly 3x the AP of every simple non-personal prior tested. We use "trait" operationally (a stable signature under continued engagement); the scope is heavy, long-tenured readers of one platform, and exposure is not separable from choice.

In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bias where some individuals/subgroups can be worse off than under simply optimizing for accuracy. For instance, a classifier implementing race-based parity may significantly disadvantage women of the advantaged race. To quantify this bias, we propose a general notion of eta-infra-marginality that can be used to evaluate the extent of this bias. We prove theoretically that, unlike other fairness metrics, infra-marginality does not have a trade-off with accuracy: high accuracy directly leads to low infra-marginality. This observation is confirmed through empirical analysis on multiple simulated and real-world datasets. Further, we find that maximizing group fairness often increases infra-marginality, suggesting the consideration of both group-level fairness and individual-level infra-marginality. However, measuring infra-marginality requires knowledge of the true distribution of individual-level outcomes correctly and explicitly. We propose a practical method to measure infra-marginality, and a simple algorithm to maximize group-wise accuracy and avoid infra-marginality.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere mathbb S^{d-1}. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on mathbb S^{d-1} to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on (mathbb S^{d-1})^L both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

Synthetic persona datasets cite alignment with official demographics as a basis for trust, yet downstream users consume them as joint structures across age, sex, region, occupation, education, name, and institutional status. Marginal alignment does not imply that these joints are preserved. We propose the Independence-Assumption Footprint (IAF), an audit primitive that operates on the attribute combinations a dataset card itself documents as treated independently. For each such combination, IAF compares the synthetic joint against an external official or institutional reference, using direct joint tables where available and rule-implied checks otherwise. Applied to NVIDIA Nemotron-Personas-Korea (one million Korean synthetic personas), IAF finds that NPK aligns with KOSIS marginals while three joints fail. The major-by-occupation distribution against the KEIS graduate universe carries a large conditional mismatch. The age profile of military service is institutionally inconsistent. Female representation in male-dominated occupations is substantially over-flattened toward parity, with the strict screening verdict mapping-dependent and age-robust under direct standardisation. A transferability demonstration across six further NPK locales finds locale-dependent rather than universal diagnostics, with reference-taxonomy cardinality confounding cross-locale flag counts. For synthetic personas used as silicon samples, marginal claims must therefore be paired with disclosure-anchored joint audits before reuse. The released audit artefacts (reference manifests, occupational crosswalks, derived metrics, reproducibility scripts) instantiate this protocol on the NPK family and are released for retargeting at other synthetic persona resources.

Detailed profession-specific system prompts raise token use and estimated cost per response without a consistent accuracy gain. We evaluate Scientific Agents, an open-source corpus of 503 profession-specific AGENTS.md profiles, with Gemini 3.8 Flash via OpenRouter in the Pi agent harness. We compare matched profiles with four controls: a minimal baseline ("You are a helpful assistant"), the profile's opening role sentence, a generic scientific rigor guide, and a profile from an unrelated domain. Across nine text-based science benchmarks (4,531 sampled questions, 100 matched profiles), 4,488 items completed all five conditions after API-error retries, scored with automated, rule-based grading. The average profile-baseline accuracy difference is -0.6 percentage points (95% bootstrap interval [-1.5, +0.2] across fixed tasks), and no benchmark shows a statistically clear improvement. Matched profiles produced 1.5-2.3 times as many output tokens and cost 2.2-4.5 times more per successful call. On 60 tool-using BioMysteryBench bioinformatics problems (three runs each for baseline and profile), mean solve rates were 46.7% with the profile and 56.7% at baseline, a difference of -10.0 percentage points (95% interval [-16.7, -3.3]) driven by more frequent token- and time-limit stops under the profile. Longer prompts had one unexpected operational advantage: on SuperGPQA, frequent provider API drops left the short baseline with a correct first-pass answer on only 54.0% of items, against 71.6% with the profile. Generic and mismatched prompts were about as reliable, so this gain comes from prompt length or formatting rather than domain expertise. For the tested model and tasks, loading full profession profiles by default does not improve accuracy and costs considerably more; whether selective retrieval of profile sections or open-ended scientific tasks would change this remains to be tested.

Speech deepfake detectors usually emit one score per utterance, but a borderline score does not reveal why two examples differ during retrospective error analysis. We ask whether a final score can be calibrated from component fields while keeping those fields visible for inspection. We build a decision record with a passive detector score and a score from a probe applied to a marked copy. It also includes retrieval support held out of the evaluated family, a margin from a support-set profile, and raw neighbor closeness. A cross-fit calibrator combines these fields and two differences between raw scores into one final score. On matched ASVspoof development data, the calibrated record reduces equal error rate (EER) by 3.48 percentage points relative to the fixed retrieval-augmented rule. It reaches 8.43% EER, whereas a passive WavLM baseline reaches 6.71% on the same subset. The record is therefore not the strongest detector in this comparison. Its value is to retain inspectable component fields while producing one scalar score for retrospective diagnosis.

Large language model (LLM) judges are often used as rewards to train policies on objectives that deterministic verifiers cannot capture. However, these rewards are often collapsed to pass/fail ({0, 1}), which reports the verdict but not how well a response met each criterion. We model each pass/fail verdict as a score on an unreported scale, compared with one cutoff. A stretch of that scale moves every score proportionally toward or away from the cutoff, but never across it, so no verdict changes. A policy is therefore free to apply any stretch without changing anything the panel reports. Under a joint-Gaussian model, a third grade adds a second threshold and removes this affine stretch ambiguity. On MATH and SciBench outputs from one seven-criterion judge, all 14 constructed criterionwise stretches were invisible after binarization but visible with three grades. At n=1{,}024, a test given both population laws had at least 96.5% power at a 1.5times stress. Retaining grades closes one blind spot created by binarization, but verdicts alone remain insufficient as some changes are still indistinguishable from genuine improvement. These include arbitrary within-grade changes and fixed-covariance, loading-aligned mean shifts -- the signature of a sycophancy-shaped lift the panel reads as competence. The shared-factor reference approximation fit MATH and SciBench but not HealthBench, delineating its empirical scope. We recommend keeping at least three grades (for example, asking the judge whether each criterion is fully, partially, or not met and rewarding {0, 0.5, 1}), and externally validating gains along the remaining direction, which no finer scale removes.

A benchmark score compares a system output against a reference, and methodological attention falls almost entirely on the first term. We measure the second. The retained annotation record of a six-language benchmark for personally identifiable information contains two independent annotator labellings, the aggregate shipped as gold, and a reviewer gold from independent expert re-annotation of a sample. Using it, we hold the scored output fixed and exchange the reference. The score moves by 4.95 F1 points for one output and 2.00 for the other (95% CIs [3.23, 6.27] and [0.26, 3.37]), and by 7.55 in the worst language. The comparison between two outputs moves as well: the paired interaction between reference and system is +2.95 points (CI [+1.97, +3.87]), survives correction for multiple testing, and changes one language's margin outright. The cause is an undocumented aggregation default that usually kept one annotator when adjudication did not fire, making the shipped reference a partial copy of an output being scored. We report the resulting reference-sensitivity band, show how to compute one from any retained annotation record, and argue that the quantity belongs beside the score.

Traditional weight of evidence assigns a credit characteristic a value based on its association with default across a population. Credit analysis also requires an assessment of that characteristic in the context of an individual applicant's record. We study conditional weight of evidence for this purpose. It measures the change in default log odds from observing a characteristic after the remaining credit information is known. Its sign identifies whether the characteristic adds adverse or favorable information for that applicant, and its magnitude measures the strength of that information. The same characteristic value can therefore receive different assessments for applicants with different payment histories or other credit attributes. We develop estimators using gradient-boosted trees and evaluate their accuracy in a bureau-style simulation. Regressions of the full model's predicted probabilities recover conditional evidence more accurately than separate models fitted to default outcomes, provided the full model is accurate. They also recover a deliberately constructed file-age effect whose direction varies with utilization and is often missed by marginal weight of evidence. Local class-frequency estimates improve on marginal weight of evidence but remain inaccurate for some weak effects. An application to FICO HELOC data illustrates estimation when the population evidence is unknown. Conditional weight of evidence provides an applicant-specific interpretation of the information in a credit characteristic; its population summary, a conditional information value, splits the joint information in the record across blocks when averaged over orderings. Neither is an adverse action reason, which explains the fitted score difference between the applicant and chosen passing records.

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

Strictly proper scoring rules identify the true conditional class distribution at population level, but their curvature can alter optimization and finite-sample behavior. We study three multiclass objectives: a class-aware quadratic Bregman score (CAPM), a strongly convex generator with constrained log-cosh ridges (HPG), and an HPG objective with an annealed probability-margin penalty (APMS). CAPM is treated as a structured instance of established quadratic scoring-rule theory. We derive conditional-regret, curvature, range, and logit-gradient bounds for CAPM and HPG, and prove exact penalty-range and conditional-target displacement bounds for APMS. Controlled five-seed experiments use Digits, Wisconsin breast cancer, and synthetic confusion and long-tail problems under clean labels, symmetric and pair-flip corruption, class imbalance, calibration evaluation, input corruption, and first-order adversarial perturbations. The candidates are close to cross-entropy on clean data and show descriptive gains in some noisy-label cells, but the five-seed comparisons are interpreted descriptively rather than as significance evidence. The selected noisy-label baselines perform better on Digits with 40% symmetric label noise, and explicit prior-adjustment methods perform better in the 30:1 synthetic long-tail experiment. Ablations do not show a consistent benefit from the candidate-specific graph, ridge, or margin components. The mathematical analysis establishes the stated properties, and the experiments delimit the empirical evidence; together they do not support a claim of general superiority.

A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release. But do we need to run every eval? We compile a public score matrix of 84 frontier models on 133 benchmarks (2,604 cells, 23.3% filled) and find it is approximately rank-2: a model's scores across all 133 benchmarks are largely determined by just two numbers. We confirm this in two ways: scores hidden from the matrix are best recovered using two factors, and two factors already explain over 90% of the variation among models on the benchmarks they share. Building on this, we design BenchPress: a logit-space rank-2 matrix completion method that recovers held-out scores to within 4.6 points, and a confidence layer that says when each prediction can be trusted. Using BenchPress, we find a subset of five benchmarks {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} that can recover the rest of a model's public scorecard to within 3.93 points. For a tighter inference budget, a cheaper set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} can predict a model's evals to within 4.55. We release the score matrix, the BenchPress code, and an interactive tool that predicts any model's score on any benchmark.

LLM confidence signals are used for abstention, routing, and safety-critical decisions. No standard practice exists for checking whether a confidence signal carries item-level information before building on it. We transfer the validity screening principle from clinical personality assessment (PAI, MMPI-3) as a portable protocol for benchmark-based LLM confidence data. The protocol specifies three core indices (L, Fp, RBS), a structural indicator (TRIN), and an item-sensitivity statistic, computed from a single 2x2 contingency table. A three-tier classification system (Invalid, Indeterminate, Valid) draws on four clinical traditions. Validated on 20 frontier LLMs across 524 items, four models are classified Invalid, two Indeterminate. Valid-profile models show mean r = .18 (15/16 significant). Invalid-profile models show mean r = -.20 (d = 2.48). Cross-benchmark validation on 18 models using MMLU with verbalized confidence and on external data from Yang et al. (2024) confirms the screen transfers across benchmarks and probe formats. All data and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/validity-scaling-llm

Agent benchmarks often evaluate only final answers even when agents run on stateful runtimes. We argue this under-specifies what is being evaluated: the proper unit is a declared model-plus-runtime configuration whose failures can occur in evidence acquisition, runtime routing, safety boundaries, or repeated execution. We present ClawProBench, a trace-aware benchmark for runtime-native agent evaluation instantiated on OpenClaw, a live agent runtime with workspace tools and native surfaces for browsing, memory, messaging, scheduling, skills, and subagents. ClawProBench defines two tracks: a 102-scenario full profile with live workspace and native-runtime routing tasks, and a frozen 68-scenario holdout with closed-world JSON output contracts for robust ranking. Trials are scored from execution traces via a safety-gated formula combining correctness, process quality, and efficiency, preserving failure evidence for audit. Our anonymous artifact includes benchmark definitions, scoring code, manifests and sanitized traces. We evaluate 68 configurations on the full profile and 37 on holdout. The top safety-gated average trace score is 0.7671. Native-runtime tasks underperform workspace-live tasks (0.5238 vs. 0.6415). On holdout, pass@k-any outperforms strict three-trial pass (0.6638 vs. 0.2890), while full-profile and holdout rankings show weak alignment (Spearman 0.1300). Rankings based purely on correctness differ substantially from process-aware, safety-gated and strict-pass views. Final-answer leaderboards may hide native-surface weaknesses, one-off successes and trace-local agent failure modes.

LLM-as-judge is now a standard tool for scalable evaluation, but judge performance is still often summarized by a single accuracy number. This aggregate view hides the deployment conditions under which a judge succeeds or fails. We introduce Conditional Accuracy Profiling (CAP), a post-hoc diagnostic framework that decomposes pairwise LLM-judge accuracy into eight conditions organized into content sensitivity, robustness, and rationale quality. CAP is benchmark-agnostic: it can be applied directly when a benchmark provides the required annotations, approximately through task-subset proxies, or through controlled augmentation when perturbation pairs can be generated. We instantiate CAP on seven LLM judges across six pairwise judging benchmarks, including judgerEva-Standard, a controlled testbed we created to support all eight conditions. CAP exposes profile differences hidden by aggregate accuracy: on judgerEva's judge-independent Hard-Constructed subset, the two judges most sensitive to omitted qualifications rank in the bottom three of seven by overall accuracy, so omission sensitivity is not predicted by aggregate accuracy. Across benchmarks, Position Robustness shows the strongest rank stability (mean Spearman barρ{=}0.87) but is itself fragile under JudgeBench-Pro adversarial stress, showing the largest mean accuracy drop among the shared conditions, though the dominant degradation channel varies by judge. Condition-level profiles provide a more actionable basis than aggregate accuracy for selecting LLM judges.

Recursive synthetic-data training can degrade a fitted model, but its effects on the variable-screening stage that precedes model fitting are less understood. When each generation labels data for the next, a marginal screener ranks variables against the current pseudo-label target rather than the original response. Across generations, this target drift can erode or reverse the active--inactive score margin and cause screening to discard variables that clean-label screening would retain. We call this process screening collapse. In a Gaussian linear model with minimum-norm recursive generators, we establish finite-sample screening bounds, characterize a late-generation information-loss limit, and derive a minimax impossibility result. Screening collapse can precede and compound ordinary model collapse: omitted variables incur a covariance-weighted loss that no refit restricted to the selected variables can eliminate, while recursive labels further degrade estimation on the retained variables. We also examine two approaches to mitigating screening collapse. Fixed-fraction real-label retention preserves a clean-label component but leaves resolution fixed, whereas data accumulation can avoid screening collapse if the pooled target preserves a positive margin and the growing sample resolves it. Numerical experiments on gene-expression data support the theoretical findings.

Adversarial attacks on vision-language models optimize an image toward a text target, then cite the attacked model's similarity score as evidence of success. We ask whether that score - victim-space target alignment (VTS) - predicts recovery of the target by an independent model. We first build a measurement instrument: supervised judges outside the attacked geometry, real-target blend controls, shuffled-target negatives, and a reference level derived from a 50% target-image blend. Two preregistered studies then compare six contrastive encoders under a matched attack at three perturbation budgets. Robustly trained encoders (FARE, TeCoA, PMG, TRADES) transfer substantially more independent evidence than vanilla CLIP or SigLIP; all eight contrasts reject at the bootstrap floor. However, no cell reaches the blend-derived reference level. The three best cells fall within its replication band, leaving practical recovery undecided. Within robust encoders, per-sample alignment gain correlates with evidence gain (ρ= 0.24-0.51); within vanilla CLIP the correlation is consistent with zero. Across encoders we find no monotone alignment-evidence relation. VTS is therefore informative only within a fixed robust encoder, and we provide a reporting protocol in its place.

Clinical personality assessment screens response validity before interpreting substantive scales. LLM evaluation does not. We apply the validity scaling framework from the PAI and MMPI-3 to metacognitive probe data from 20 frontier models across 524 items. Six validity indices are operationalised: L (maintaining confidence on errors), K (betting on errors), F (withdrawing consensus-endorsed items), Fp (withdrawing correct answers), RBS (inverted monitoring), and TRIN (fixed responding). A tiered classification system identifies four models as construct-level invalid and two as elevated. Valid-profile models produce item-sensitive confidence (mean r = .18, 14 of 16 significant). Invalid-profile models do not (mean r = -.20, d = 2.17, p = .001). Chain-of-thought training produces two opposite response distortions. Two latent dimensions account for 94.6% of index variance. Companion papers extract a portable screening protocol (Cacioli, 2026e) and validate it against selective prediction (Cacioli, 2026f). All data and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/validity-scaling-llm

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

In passage reranking, response ranking and multi-document question answering, LLMs can score several candidate documents or responses together in one prompt, each still receiving its own score. Such scorers are selected on ranking quality, but their scores determine a decision: what a score threshold retains, a reader answers, or which chosen/rejected pair enters preference training. Because the candidates share that prompt, reordering them changes their scores. The same query over the same candidates should still yield the same decision. However, equal ranking quality does not imply equal decisions: on passage reranking, five trained scorers within 0.010 nDCG@10 retain sets that overlap by only 0.66-0.84 when reordered. No prompt-time change we test resolves that dependence: the only one that improves ranking quality does not measurably improve decision stability. We introduce order-consistency SFT (OC-SFT), which attenuates it in the weights by penalizing disagreement between a candidate's scores across orderings. It holds ranking quality and leads every decision-stability measure among trained scorers on all three tasks. It is also more stable on 12 base models than order-averaged distillation, which trains on labels averaged across permutations. One OC-SFT permutation retains sets that overlap more than ten averaged off-the-shelf permutations. A comparison of such scorers should therefore report what a threshold retains and a reader answers, not ranking quality alone. Code is available at https://github.com/thomsonreuters/presentation-dependence.

Despite advancements in Large Language Model (LLM) alignment, understanding the reasons behind LLM preferences remains crucial for bridging the gap between desired and actual behavior. LLMs often exhibit biases or tendencies that diverge from human preferences, such as favoring certain writing styles or producing overly verbose outputs. However, current methods for evaluating preference alignment often lack explainability, relying on coarse-grained comparisons. To address this, we introduce PROFILE (PRObing Factors of InfLuence for Explainability), a novel framework that uncovers and quantifies the influence of specific factors driving preferences. PROFILE's factor level analysis explains the 'why' behind human-model alignment and misalignment, offering insights into the direction of model improvement. We apply PROFILE to analyze human and LLM preferences across three tasks: summarization, helpful response generation, and document-based question-answering. Our factor level analysis reveals a substantial discrepancy between human and LLM preferences in generation tasks, whereas LLMs show strong alignment with human preferences in evaluation tasks. We demonstrate how leveraging factor level insights, including addressing misaligned factors or exploiting the generation-evaluation gap, can improve alignment with human preferences. This work underscores the importance of explainable preference analysis and highlights PROFILE's potential to provide valuable training signals, driving further improvements in human-model alignment.

ICC's current ranking system does not adequately account for key contextual factors such as home advantage, toss impact and scheduling imbalances; leading to inconsistencies in team evaluation in Test cricket. This study develops an enhanced rating framework by adapting and enhancing Glicko's model to incorporate these influences alongside Margin of Victory, an important indicator of dominance a contest. This enables a more dynamic and probabilistically grounded assessment of team performance. Using past match data, the model demonstrates improved expected score estimation and predictive accuracy. Robustness of the resulting ratings is demonstrated through bootstrap resampling, confirming stability with respect to match scheduling. Overall, the framework provides a fairer and more statistically consistent approach to ranking Test teams.

The evaluation of recommender system fairness has become increasingly important, especially with recent legislation that emphasises the development of fair and responsible artificial intelligence. This has led to the emergence of various fairness evaluation measures, which quantify fairness based on different definitions. However, many of such measures are simply proposed and used without further analysis on their robustness. As a result, there is insufficient understanding and awareness of the measures' limitations. Among other issues, it is not known what kind of model outputs produce the (un)fairest score, how the measure scores are empirically distributed, and whether there are cases where the measures cannot be computed (e.g., due to division by zero). These issues cause difficulty in interpreting the measure scores and confusion on which measure(s) should be used for a specific case. This thesis presents a series of papers that assess and overcome various theoretical, empirical, and conceptual limitations of existing recommender system fairness evaluation measures. We investigate a wide range of offline evaluation measures for different fairness notions, divided based on the evaluation subjects (users and items) and for different evaluation granularities (groups of subjects and individual subjects). Firstly, we perform theoretical and empirical analysis on the measures, exposing flaws that limit their interpretability, expressiveness, or applicability. Secondly, we contribute novel evaluation approaches and measures that overcome these limitations. Finally, considering the measures' limitations, we recommend guidelines for the appropriate measure usage, thereby allowing for more precise selection of fairness evaluation measures in practical scenarios. Overall, this thesis contributes to advancing the state-of-the-art offline evaluation of fairness in recommender systems.

This study explores the feasibility of using large language models (LLMs), specifically GPT-4o (ChatGPT), for automated grading of conceptual questions in an undergraduate Mechanical Engineering course. We compared the grading performance of GPT-4o with that of human teaching assistants (TAs) on ten quiz problems from the MEEN 361 course at Texas A&M University, each answered by approximately 225 students. Both the LLM and TAs followed the same instructor-provided rubric to ensure grading consistency. We evaluated performance using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) to assess the alignment between rankings and the accuracy of scores assigned by GPT-4o and TAs under zero- and few-shot grading settings. In the zero-shot setting, GPT-4o demonstrated a strong correlation with TA grading, with Spearman's rank correlation coefficient exceeding 0.6 in seven out of ten datasets and reaching a high of 0.9387. Our analysis reveals that GPT-4o performs well when grading criteria are straightforward but struggles with nuanced answers, particularly those involving synonyms not present in the rubric. The model also tends to grade more stringently in ambiguous cases compared to human TAs. Overall, ChatGPT shows promise as a tool for grading conceptual questions, offering scalability and consistency.

Structured tabular data dominates clinical medicine, yet existing benchmarks fail to reflect real-world properties like complex survey sampling, demographic oversampling, and subgroup fairness. We introduce the NHANES Accelerometry Cardiometabolic Benchmark, derived from NHANES 2003-2006, comprising 1,381 adults with hip-worn accelerometry, fasting laboratory biomarkers, dietary intake, and anthropometrics. We evaluate three tabular learning methods -- ridge regression, XGBoost, and the foundation model TabPFN v2 -- to predict glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting triglycerides, and C-reactive protein (CRP) from activity phenotypes and lifestyle covariates. TabPFN v2 achieves the best overall performance (HbA1c R^2=0.156, CRP R^2=0.383), while triglycerides remain largely unpredictable (R^2 < 0.05), consistent with known genetic dominance. We apply split conformal prediction to generate distribution-free 90% prediction intervals and evaluate demographic coverage equity across sex and race/ethnicity subgroups. Marginal coverage aligns with the 90% target for CRP and HbA1c but falls below for triglycerides. At the subgroup level, we observe localized undercoverage (e.g., HbA1c for Mexican American participants), illustrating the gap between marginal guarantees and the conditional coverage required for clinical fairness. Code and data are at https://github.com/felizzi/nhanes-accel-cardiometabolic-benchmark.

When a coordinator compares answers from heterogeneous foundation models, self-reported confidence may have different meanings across responders and changing workloads. This paper presents MARGIN (Multi-Agent Runtime Grading via Incremental Normalisation), a runtime calibration method that learns model-specific confidence corrections from observed answer outcomes without retraining the models or requiring a held-out calibration set. MARGIN tracks recent accuracy and stated confidence within confidence bands, uses their ratio to correct reported confidence, and blends sparse-band corrections toward a model-level estimate. The corrected scores weight candidate answers in a collective decision. Evaluation covers code generation, question answering, and mathematics, using an 18-model pool and a nine-model subset for distribution-shift experiments. On BigCodeBench, model-mean confidence is negatively related to accuracy; among correct/incorrect response pairs, choosing the more confident responder performs below chance. Against five online calibration baselines receiving identical feedback and retaining their learned state across each transition, MARGIN achieves lower post-shift expected calibration error than all five in two code-generation transitions and than four in a question-answering transition; the remaining question-answering comparison is inconclusive. In separate code-generation coordination experiments, calibration improves the ranking of correct responses and increases answer-selection accuracy by 4.3 and 14.0 percentage points on two of three benchmarks relative to uncalibrated confidence weighting. These results support model-specific runtime calibration for coordination under changing workloads when correctness feedback is available for the participating responders.

We present EBench, a simulation benchmark that diagnoses generalist mobile manipulation policies beyond a single success-rate scalar. EBench comprises 26 diverse and challenging manipulation tasks annotated along 5 capability dimensions and 4 generalization dimensions. We evaluate state-of-the-art generalist manipulation models including π_0, π_{0.5}, XVLA, and InternVLA-A1, and reveal that models with near success rates exhibit strikingly different capability profiles: π_{0.5} achieves the highest test success rate and the best train--test retention, whereas InternVLA-A1 dominates mobile manipulation but collapses on dexterous tasks, and XVLA exhibits strengths on a disjoint set of atomic skills compared to other policies. Beyond capability profiling, EBench analyzes the generalization ability from 4 representative perspectives, identifying the impact of different distribution shift factors. The results reveal strengths and weaknesses of models behind an overall score. We hope this benchmark offers a broad set of diagnostic signals to guide iteration on generalist manipulation models.

Open-ended language-model benchmarks usually inherit a judge: a human preference panel, another model, or a brittle exact-match key. We introduce FlavourBench, an automated benchmark in which a versioned culinary system supplies dense, executable ground truth. Each task presents eight ingredients and asks for a three-ingredient portfolio; before model execution, Epicure scores all 56 possible portfolios. We evaluate 27 frontier endpoints on an identical 534-task core spanning substitution, pairing, and constrained composition. Every ranked model has exactly 89 valid responses per panel and family (14,418 model-task cells total), eliminating differential missingness from the leaderboard. The FlavourBench Score is the equal-family mean of the frozen task scores. We use 50,000 anchor-cluster bootstrap replicates for simultaneous 95% score bands and 100,000 sign-flip draws for all 351 paired model contrasts, with Holm control. The two independently compiled panels correlate at r = 0.89 (rank rho = 0.80). Grok 4.6 has the largest point estimate at 65.1 (simultaneous 95% CI 61.0-69.2); 101 of 351 model pairs are resolved. The release includes the prompts, all portfolio score maps, raw responses, exact routes, content hashes, and an offline verifier that reconstructs every result.

Demographic synthetic survey panels are often validated by matching aggregate answers to published surveys. We test what that certificate establishes across six multiselect batteries from four survey organisations in three countries. The headline analysis is restricted to three instruments whose synthetic cohort and human target share the stated population frame; three other batteries remain sensitivity analyses. The response contract dominates measured fidelity. In the aligned instruments, committed sets leave 66 of 128 model-battery option slots empty in panels of up to 500 respondents, versus 0 of 128 under per-option probability elicitation. Across eight uncapped model-instrument comparisons, probabilities reduce option-marginal MAE by 4.53 to 7.30 points. The capped instrument reverses on two models until the vectors are projected onto its stated maximum. These are measurement effects: human targets are realised check-all responses, whereas the vectors are latent inclusion propensities. Published marginal agreement also fails to discriminate respondent simulation from direct population estimation. On nine aligned model-battery pairs, a no-persona population-prevalence query averages 6.27 MAE versus 12.39 for committed panels and wins all nine comparisons. Constraint-aware probability vectors average 5.34 and beat the query on four of nine, so the baseline challenges the validation criterion rather than proving direct estimation uniformly best. On three unpublished demographic cells, neither approach beats reciting the national distribution. Population-marginal agreement is therefore evidence about an elicitation contract and an estimand obtainable without simulated respondents, not evidence of individual simulation.

Portrait aesthetic assessment assigns comparable scores according to how effectively human-centered images fulfill their photographic intent. These scores support data filtering, candidate selection, and preference modeling in image-generation pipelines. Existing methods typically predict a single aesthetic score or use general-purpose MLLMs without conditioning on photographic intent. This omission matters because the same blur, pose, lighting, or framing choice may serve one photographic intent but undermine another. These models thus learn context-agnostic aesthetic priors and yield inconsistent, inaccurate, misleading judgments for portraits with distinct photographic objectives. We introduce PortraitAes-Bench, an 11K-scale benchmark that decomposes this task into intent-conditioned subjudgments. Expert-authored rubrics define nine photographic intents, six first-level dimensions, and 22 secondary criteria. They support a structured pipeline for intent routing, specialist assessment, verification, and score fusion. Following this structure, we train PortraitAes with multi-task supervision. We then improve score comparability through Gaussian score calibration and within-dimension cross-image ranking. On the standard benchmark, PortraitAes achieves a Pearson correlation of 0.924 and a Spearman rank correlation of 0.934. On the hard-case set, its Pearson correlation is 0.829 and its Spearman rank correlation is 0.795. Across both sets, PortraitAes outperforms the evaluated general-purpose MLLMs and specialized aesthetic baselines.

We present t_0, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: t0-alpha and t0-beta, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, t0-alpha reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and t0-beta a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze t0-alpha in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, t0-beta is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

We consider estimating the conditional distribution of a multivariate outcome given covariates when its coordinates may be continuous, binary, categorical, ordinal or rankings, and are conditionally dependent on one another. Different statistical methods have been developed for each outcome type, and most of them target a summary of the conditional distribution, such as the mean of each coordinate, rather than the joint distribution of the outcome vector. We develop generalized engression models, a unified nonparametric distributional regression framework for outcomes of any type. The proposed method builds upon engression, a scoring-rule-based deep generative model, and introduces a data-type-specific link function and a stochastic perturbation that smooths the loss, enabling gradient-based training even with discontinuous links. We establish universal representation results for continuous, discrete and mixed outcomes. In simulations and in two applications, 242 species in a community ecology benchmark and a 17-dimensional mixed-type health outcome, the method matches type-specific models on marginal scores, improves on them on the joint distribution, and matches or exceeds purpose-built state-of-the-art joint species distribution models. Software is available in Python.

Time series foundation models are becoming increasingly popular for general-purpose forecasting. However, most leading models predict marginal quantiles, leaving the dependence structure of future trajectories unspecified. This distinction matters for trajectory-dependent quantities such as cumulative demand, peak load, and event timing, yet point and marginal scores do not reveal it. To model this dependence, we introduce PathFM, a trajectory-based forecasting model that uses flow matching to generate complete future paths. We further distill the model to one or two steps and share history attention cache across draws. Together, these enable PathFM to generate multiple paths for a single series in roughly the time needed for one query to a quantile model. The distilled sampler also makes it practical to optimize a calibration loss directly. PathFM achieves competitive marginal accuracy on the established forecasting benchmarks fev-bench and TIME. To complement these evaluations, we introduce Forecast Path Score Bench (fps-bench), which augments fev-bench tasks with energy and variogram scores and downstream metrics. PathFM achieves a higher aggregate path score on fps-bench than all evaluated external baselines. Experiments on chaotic systems further show that our flow model sustains long-run variability, while strong baselines rapidly collapse. PathFM makes generative time series forecasting both competitive and practical, enabling diverse downstream applications.

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

Mental health research through data-driven methods has been hindered by a lack of standard typology and scarcity of adequate data. In this study, we leverage the clinical articulation of depression to build a typology for social media texts for detecting the severity of depression. It emulates the standard clinical assessment procedure Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) to encompass subtle indications of depressive disorders from tweets. Along with the typology, we present a new dataset of 40191 tweets labeled by expert annotators. Each tweet is labeled as 'non-depressed' or 'depressed'. Moreover, three severity levels are considered for 'depressed' tweets: (1) mild, (2) moderate, and (3) severe. An associated confidence score is provided with each label to validate the quality of annotation. We examine the quality of the dataset via representing summary statistics while setting strong baseline results using attention-based models like BERT and DistilBERT. Finally, we extensively address the limitations of the study to provide directions for further research.

The development of state-of-the-art systems in different applied areas of machine learning (ML) is driven by benchmarks, which have shaped the paradigm of evaluating generalisation capabilities from multiple perspectives. Although the paradigm is shifting towards more fine-grained evaluation across diverse tasks, the delicate question of how to aggregate the performances has received particular interest in the community. In general, benchmarks follow the unspoken utilitarian principles, where the systems are ranked based on their mean average score over task-specific metrics. Such aggregation procedure has been viewed as a sub-optimal evaluation protocol, which may have created the illusion of progress. This paper proposes Vote'n'Rank, a framework for ranking systems in multi-task benchmarks under the principles of the social choice theory. We demonstrate that our approach can be efficiently utilised to draw new insights on benchmarking in several ML sub-fields and identify the best-performing systems in research and development case studies. The Vote'n'Rank's procedures are more robust than the mean average while being able to handle missing performance scores and determine conditions under which the system becomes the winner.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

Ranking and scoring are ubiquitous. We consider the setting in which an institution, called a ranker, evaluates a set of individuals based on demographic, behavioral or other characteristics. The final output is a ranking that represents the relative quality of the individuals. While automatic and therefore seemingly objective, rankers can, and often do, discriminate against individuals and systematically disadvantage members of protected groups. This warrants a careful study of the fairness of a ranking scheme. In this paper we propose fairness measures for ranked outputs. We develop a data generation procedure that allows us to systematically control the degree of unfairness in the output, and study the behavior of our measures on these datasets. We then apply our proposed measures to several real datasets, and demonstrate cases of unfairness. Finally, we show preliminary results of incorporating our ranked fairness measures into an optimization framework, and show potential for improving fairness of ranked outputs while maintaining accuracy.

We examine whether human psychometric questionnaires can serve as reliable tools for characterizing and predicting LLM behavior in everyday user interactions. We analyze eight open-source LLMs by comparing their value and personality profiles derived from two different methods: Likert self-reports on established questionnaires (PVQ-40/21 and BFI-44/10) and generation probabilities over value-laden responses to everyday user queries. The two profiles diverge substantially. Within-construct item consistency, often cited as evidence of stable LLM dispositions, disappears in generation probabilities. We attribute this gap to the fact that explicit lexical cues in established questionnaire items allow models to recognize the target construct and respond in alignment-consistent, socially desirable ways, whereas realistic user queries provide no such cues. In addition, demographic persona prompts shift models' responses to human questionnaires in ways consistent with real human patterns, but no such shifts appear in the generation probabilities of responses to realistic user queries, showing their limited ability to simulate the behaviors of target demographics in real-world user interactions. Overall, our study shows that human psychometric questionnaires are insufficient tools for predicting LLM behavior and suggests generation-based profiling as a more accurate measure.

Aligning large visual generative models with human feedback is often performed through pairwise preference optimization. While such approaches are conceptually simple, they fundamentally rely on annotated pairs, limiting scalability in settings where feedback is collected as independent scalar ratings. In this work, we revisit the KL-regularized alignment objective and show that the optimal policy implicitly compares each sample's reward to an instance-specific baseline that is generally intractable. We propose a threshold-guided alignment framework that replaces this oracle baseline with a data-driven global threshold estimated from empirical score statistics. This formulation turns alignment into a binary decision task on unpaired data, enabling effective optimization directly from scalar feedback. We also incorporate a confidence weighting term to emphasize samples whose scores deviate strongly from the threshold, improving sample efficiency. Experiments across both diffusion and masked generative paradigms, spanning three test sets and five reward models, show that our method consistently improves preference alignment over previous methods. These results position our threshold-guided framework as a simple yet principled alternative for aligning visual generative models without paired comparisons.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Personalized summarization models cater to individuals' subjective understanding of saliency, as represented by their reading history and current topics of attention. Existing personalized text summarizers are primarily evaluated based on accuracy measures such as BLEU, ROUGE, and METEOR. However, a recent study argued that accuracy measures are inadequate for evaluating the degree of personalization of these models and proposed EGISES, the first metric to evaluate personalized text summaries. It was suggested that accuracy is a separate aspect and should be evaluated standalone. In this paper, we challenge the necessity of an accuracy leaderboard, suggesting that relying on accuracy-based aggregated results might lead to misleading conclusions. To support this, we delve deeper into EGISES, demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that it measures the degree of responsiveness, a necessary but not sufficient condition for degree-of-personalization. We subsequently propose PerSEval, a novel measure that satisfies the required sufficiency condition. Based on the benchmarking of ten SOTA summarization models on the PENS dataset, we empirically establish that -- (i) PerSEval is reliable w.r.t human-judgment correlation (Pearson's r = 0.73; Spearman's rho = 0.62; Kendall's tau = 0.42), (ii) PerSEval has high rank-stability, (iii) PerSEval as a rank-measure is not entailed by EGISES-based ranking, and (iv) PerSEval can be a standalone rank-measure without the need of any aggregated ranking.

The quality of training data fundamentally determines the capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet no unified benchmark exists to measure how well LLMs, agents, and data-centric workflows actually prepare training data end to end. We view LLM-driven data preparation as comprising two complementary capabilities: data construction, which transforms raw sources into supervised training data, and data quality evaluation, which predicts the training value of candidate datasets before downstream training; throughout, "quality" refers to downstream training utility rather than surface-level textual properties. We introduce DataPrep-Bench, the first unified benchmark that jointly evaluates both capabilities under a shared downstream-grounded protocol over six domains and multiple base models. For data construction, methods consume identical raw sources and are scored by fine-tuning a base model on their outputs jointly with Dolly-15k; alongside this track we release Data-Construction-Skill, a skill-guided agent that lifts the Dolly-only baseline by nearly 20 points absolute on Llama-3.1-8B Finance and is competitive with the strongest agent- and DataFlow-based methods in knowledge-extraction-dense domains. For data quality evaluation, scoring functions are scored by Pearson correlation with downstream performance on a shared candidate pool; we release the Distributional Alignment Score (DAS), a distribution-based evaluator that uses MMD between a candidate dataset and a domain proxy. DAS attains the strongest cross-model correlation in four of six domains and is the only metric clearing r > 0.70 simultaneously in Math, Science, and Medical, outperforming existing quality-, diversity-, and heuristic-based evaluators. DataPrep-Bench provides a unified, downstream-grounded framework for measuring progress on both capabilities as co-equal targets of LLM-driven data preparation.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

We present a new methodology for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) images by utilizing norms of the score estimates at multiple noise scales. A score is defined to be the gradient of the log density with respect to the input data. Our methodology is completely unsupervised and follows a straight forward training scheme. First, we train a deep network to estimate scores for levels of noise. Once trained, we calculate the noisy score estimates for N in-distribution samples and take the L2-norms across the input dimensions (resulting in an NxL matrix). Then we train an auxiliary model (such as a Gaussian Mixture Model) to learn the in-distribution spatial regions in this L-dimensional space. This auxiliary model can now be used to identify points that reside outside the learned space. Despite its simplicity, our experiments show that this methodology significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art in detecting out-of-distribution images. For example, our method can effectively separate CIFAR-10 (inlier) and SVHN (OOD) images, a setting which has been previously shown to be difficult for deep likelihood models.

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

Recently, using a powerful proprietary Large Language Model (LLM) (e.g., GPT-4) as an evaluator for long-form responses has become the de facto standard. However, for practitioners with large-scale evaluation tasks and custom criteria in consideration (e.g., child-readability), using proprietary LLMs as an evaluator is unreliable due to the closed-source nature, uncontrolled versioning, and prohibitive costs. In this work, we propose Prometheus, a fully open-source LLM that is on par with GPT-4's evaluation capabilities when the appropriate reference materials (reference answer, score rubric) are accompanied. We first construct the Feedback Collection, a new dataset that consists of 1K fine-grained score rubrics, 20K instructions, and 100K responses and language feedback generated by GPT-4. Using the Feedback Collection, we train Prometheus, a 13B evaluator LLM that can assess any given long-form text based on customized score rubric provided by the user. Experimental results show that Prometheus scores a Pearson correlation of 0.897 with human evaluators when evaluating with 45 customized score rubrics, which is on par with GPT-4 (0.882), and greatly outperforms ChatGPT (0.392). Furthermore, measuring correlation with GPT-4 with 1222 customized score rubrics across four benchmarks (MT Bench, Vicuna Bench, Feedback Bench, Flask Eval) shows similar trends, bolstering Prometheus's capability as an evaluator LLM. Lastly, Prometheus achieves the highest accuracy on two human preference benchmarks (HHH Alignment & MT Bench Human Judgment) compared to open-sourced reward models explicitly trained on human preference datasets, highlighting its potential as an universal reward model. We open-source our code, dataset, and model at https://github.com/kaistAI/Prometheus.

Blind image quality assessment (BIQA) is commonly built on two basic learning paradigms: regression and ranking. Regression calibrates absolute scores, whereas ranking recovers quality structure from ordinal relations. Although joint regression-ranking supervision often improves BIQA, the relation between the two paradigms remains largely empirical and underexplored. In this work, we revisit what underlies regression and ranking and identify pairwise relational distance, termed quality margin, as their common bridge. Our derivation shows that, at the objective-optimization level, both paradigms fit quality margins: regression fits margins induced by score endpoints, while ranking fits transformed or sign-level margins through preference probabilities. Motivated by this insight, we propose MR-IQA, a direct quality-margin optimization framework for reinforcement learning (RL)-based BIQA. MR-IQA samples quality scores and optimizes pairwise margin errors as policy rewards, thereby modeling quality structure more explicitly. Experiments on six BIQA benchmarks show competitive general performance, and controlled comparisons demonstrate that MR-IQA achieves the strongest average PLCC/SRCC over regression- or ranking-based RL methods. Our findings provide a new insight into unifying regression and ranking, offering a theoretical basis for understanding quality-structure modeling in BIQA and beyond.

Chemistry evaluation has moved past multiple-choice probes toward open-ended expert problems, yet the benchmarks that define the current frontier still score answer endpoints alone. Such scoring conflates memorized facts with stepwise derivation, treats visual and textual inputs as interchangeable, and confounds long-horizon planning with stepwise execution. These blind spots prevent any diagnosis of where the reasoning chain breaks in a model. We present ChemArgus, a competition-level chemistry benchmark drawn from chemistry competition material, textbooks, and research papers, whose scoring replaces the answer endpoint with three measurement properties. Fine-grained scoring grades every subquestion point by point with partial credit, so a score lands at the level of the step rather than the outcome. Multimodal capability is priced on every problem containing a real image, paired with a controlled text description, so visual understanding is measured against text on identical tasks. Diagnostic attribution reads paired metrics that share one scoring unit and differ only in context construction, so a gap between two scores isolates a single cause, namely integration, propagation, or local reasoning. GPT-5.6-Sol scores 23.2% on unassisted whole-problem solving against 28.8% and 30.4% under the two sequential metrics, a gap measuring the integration burden. Through rubric partial credit and these cause-isolating score gaps, ChemArgus shows not only whether a model answers chemistry correctly but where its reasoning chain fails, so that every score it reports doubles as a diagnosis, a readout of the chain rather than a verdict, aiming to guide language models step by step on their path toward chemistry expertise, one corrected step at a time, each step priced by the rubric, point by point.

HakemBench is a Turkish benchmark of typed decisions, in which the model under test reads a text, a question and a fixed set of options and returns a probability for every option. Version 1.0 is released fully open under CC BY 4.0, with 2,346 items and 4,275 choice, yes/no and score questions in seven tracks (fact-check triage, education, guardrails, legal routing, moderation, spam and phishing, and customer support). One harness scores decision quality (macro F1), calibration (from the normalised Brier score) and selective automation (from the normalised area under the generalised risk-coverage curve), combines them by a geometric mean and reports intervals from 2,000 bootstrap draws; probes for option order, paraphrase, English translation and substituted names are reported alongside. Most gold labels come from blind passes of one AI model family compared with the votes of a panel of large language models from other model families; they are not human-verified. On a board of 16 rows the leader scores a composite of 0.888 and the lab's own model is 7th at 0.660. Its numbers are not blind. Earlier runs' test results shaped its training data, so its guardrail, moderation and customer support numbers are flagged; with every model scored on the other four tracks only, its composite is 0.678, 6th of 16.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled their application to recommender systems (RecLLMs), yet concerns remain regarding fairness across demographic and psychological user dimensions. We introduce FairEval, a novel evaluation framework to systematically assess fairness in LLM-based recommendations. FairEval integrates personality traits with eight sensitive demographic attributes,including gender, race, and age, enabling a comprehensive assessment of user-level bias. We evaluate models, including ChatGPT 4o and Gemini 1.5 Flash, on music and movie recommendations. FairEval's fairness metric, PAFS, achieves scores up to 0.9969 for ChatGPT 4o and 0.9997 for Gemini 1.5 Flash, with disparities reaching 34.79 percent. These results highlight the importance of robustness in prompt sensitivity and support more inclusive recommendation systems.

Large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned with alignment techniques, such as reinforcement learning from human feedback, have been instrumental in developing some of the most capable AI systems to date. Despite their success, existing methods typically rely on simple binary labels, such as those indicating preferred outputs in pairwise preferences, which fail to capture the subtle differences in relative quality between pairs. To address this limitation, we introduce an approach called Margin Matching Preference Optimization (MMPO), which incorporates relative quality margins into optimization, leading to improved LLM policies and reward models. Specifically, given quality margins in pairwise preferences, we design soft target probabilities based on the Bradley-Terry model, which are then used to train models with the standard cross-entropy objective. Experiments with both human and AI feedback data demonstrate that MMPO consistently outperforms baseline methods, often by a substantial margin, on popular benchmarks including MT-bench and RewardBench. Notably, the 7B model trained with MMPO achieves state-of-the-art performance on RewardBench as of June 2024, outperforming other models of the same scale. Our analysis also shows that MMPO is more robust to overfitting, leading to better-calibrated models.

InMyStyle is a privacy first, single user system that adapts small language models to rewrite AI-edited text towards an individual user's writing style without an instruction prompt at inference. Given a user's documents, it uses multiple local helper LLMs to construct paired training examples and fine tunes LoRA adapters on base models ranging from 0.5B to 7B parameters. Length aware generation budgets and automatic chunking support inputs of different lengths. On 219 evaluation pairs from a scientific-paper corpus, the automatic composite score plateaus at 0.69 [scale 0-1] across all model sizes under both greedy and sampled decoding. This observed plateau suggests that small models are sufficient for the measured rewriting task, with model size determining trade-offs rather than a stable quality ranking. As a secondary evaluation, 400 ratings from five LLM judges give InMyStyle outputs a mean perceived AI-ness score over 20% lower than their helper-AI generated inputs, while mean perceived AI-ness scores decrease with model size within InMyStyle.

In the post-API landscape, social-media profiling has become inexpensive and automated: Large Language Models (LLMs) can extract structured information from unstructured content and deduce attributes users never disclosed. A person's true exposure is not what they post but what can be inferred from it. As these practices become routine, exposure to social engineering attacks becomes an operational certainty, demanding a shared framework for assessment and mitigation. We make this exposure measurable by quantifying how accurately a target can be profiled, and how far that profile enables social engineering attacks. Because no existing model fully spans this continuum, we unify Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) and Cyber Human Intelligence (Cyber-HUMINT), two individual-focused disciplines that evolved separately, into a single doctrine-grounded taxonomy of 38 capabilities across the Cyber Threat Intelligence lifecycle, where user profiling bridges passive collection and active engagement. Domain experts validated the taxonomy (Fleiss' κ = 0.92). We operationalize its core path (extraction, inference, and susceptibility assessment) as an LLM-augmented multi-agent pipeline, evaluated on real participants' public data. Susceptibility is assessed indirectly: the pipeline predicts how each target would rank personalized engagement options, matching their actual choices significantly above chance. This ranking capacity captures the personalization on which tailored attacks depend. The underlying profiles are accurate: extraction reaches F1 = 97.3%, and inferred attributes score 4.73/5, both far above rule-based and NER-based baselines at negligible cost. The framework augments security analysts' tradecraft rather than replacing it and enables defenders to gauge their own exposure before an adversary does.

Objective estimators of multimedia quality are often judged by comparing estimates with subjective "truth data," most often via Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) or mean-squared error (MSE). But subjective test results contain noise, so striving for a PCC of 1.0 or an MSE of 0.0 is neither realistic nor repeatable. Numerous efforts have been made to acknowledge and appropriately accommodate subjective test noise in objective-subjective comparisons, typically resulting in new analysis frameworks and figures-of-merit. We take a different approach. By making only basic assumptions, we derive bounds on PCC and MSE that can be expected for a subjective test. Consistent with intuition, these bounds are functions of subjective vote variance. When a subjective test includes vote variance information, the calculation of the bounds is easy, and in this case we say the resulting bounds are "fully data-driven." We provide two options for calculating bounds in cases where vote variance information is not available. One option is to use vote variance information from other subjective tests that do provide such information, and the second option is to use a model for subjective votes. Thus we introduce a binomial-based model for subjective votes (BinoVotes) that naturally leads to a mean opinion score (MOS) model, named BinoMOS, with multiple unique desirable properties. BinoMOS reproduces the discrete nature of MOS values and its dependence on the number of votes per file. This modeling provides vote variance information required by the PCC and MSE bounds and we compare this modeling with data from 18 subjective tests. The modeling yields PCC and MSE bounds that agree very well with those found from the data directly. These results allow one to set expectations for the PCC and MSE that might be achieved for any subjective test, even those where vote variance information is not available.

We introduce WildBench, an automated evaluation framework designed to benchmark large language models (LLMs) using challenging, real-world user queries. WildBench consists of 1,024 tasks carefully selected from over one million human-chatbot conversation logs. For automated evaluation with WildBench, we have developed two metrics, WB-Reward and WB-Score, which are computable using advanced LLMs such as GPT-4-turbo. WildBench evaluation uses task-specific checklists to evaluate model outputs systematically and provides structured explanations that justify the scores and comparisons, resulting in more reliable and interpretable automatic judgments. WB-Reward employs fine-grained pairwise comparisons between model responses, generating five potential outcomes: much better, slightly better, slightly worse, much worse, or a tie. Unlike previous evaluations that employed a single baseline model, we selected three baseline models at varying performance levels to ensure a comprehensive pairwise evaluation. Additionally, we propose a simple method to mitigate length bias, by converting outcomes of ``slightly better/worse'' to ``tie'' if the winner response exceeds the loser one by more than K characters. WB-Score evaluates the quality of model outputs individually, making it a fast and cost-efficient evaluation metric. WildBench results demonstrate a strong correlation with the human-voted Elo ratings from Chatbot Arena on hard tasks. Specifically, WB-Reward achieves a Pearson correlation of 0.98 with top-ranking models. Additionally, WB-Score reaches 0.95, surpassing both ArenaHard's 0.91 and AlpacaEval2.0's 0.89 for length-controlled win rates, as well as the 0.87 for regular win rates.

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

Many localized large language model (LLM) unlearning methods select a small parameter subset from a localization signal and keep it fixed during optimization. The parameters most associated with a target, however, need not be the best ones to update, and candidate interventions can change value as optimization proceeds. In a controlled experiment, a storage-localization score reaches an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.981, yet storage identity agrees with the better intervention on only 17/36 targets, while low-rank adaptation (LoRA) wins 35/36. We introduce Intervention Score, which ranks editable groups by the predicted effect of the actual unlearning update while accounting for collateral damage, and use it to form the static intervention-value baseline (Static-IV). We then introduce selective dynamic intervention re-ranking (DIR-R), which revisits that subset only when a calibrated probe justifies the comparison. On the Natural-TOFU dataset, our method has positive descriptive margins in 19/20 comparisons between methods and objectives, although several are near zero. On the LACUNA localization-precision benchmark, our mean terminal utility is higher in all six negative preference optimization (NPO) and SimNPO comparisons: NPO margins range from +0.431 to +0.848, and SimNPO margins range from +0.503 to +0.571. The gradient-difference (GradDiff) objective reveals substantial field dependence. Relative to Static-IV, the primary four-field GradDiff evaluation has six wins, six ties, and no losses, with mean and median paired gains of +0.165 and +0.0025. The evidence supports separating localization, initial intervention selection, and checkpoint-dependent support revision.

Foundation models rely on large-scale web-crawled datasets, which frequently contain noisy data, biases, and irrelevant content. Existing data selection techniques typically use human heuristics, downstream evaluation datasets, or specialized scoring models, and can overlook samples' utility in the training process. Instead, we propose a new approach, Mimic Score, a data quality metric that uses a pretrained reference model as a guide to assess the usefulness of data samples for training a new model. It relies on the alignment between the gradient of the new model parameters and the vector pointing toward the reference model in weight space. Samples that misalign with this direction are considered low-value and can be filtered out. Motivated by the Mimic score, we develop Grad-Mimic, a data selection framework that identifies and prioritizes useful samples, automating the selection process to create effective filters. Empirically, using Mimic scores to guide model training results in consistent performance gains across six image datasets and enhances the performance of CLIP models. Moreover, Mimic scores and their associated filters improve upon existing filtering methods and offer accurate estimation of dataset quality.

Stylistic personalization - making LLMs write in a specific individual's style, rather than merely adapting to task preferences - lacks evaluation grounded in authorship science. We show that grounding evaluation in authorship verification theory transforms what benchmarks can measure. Drawing on three measurement traditions - LUAR, a trained authorship verification model; an LLM-as-judge with decoupled trait matching; and classical function-word stylometrics - we evaluate four inference-time personalization methods across 50 authors and 1,000 generations. The theory-grounded metric, LUAR, provides what ad hoc alternatives cannot: calibrated baselines, with a human ceiling of 0.756 and a cross-author floor of 0.626, that give scores absolute meaning. All methods score below this floor, from 0.484 to 0.508, exposing an authorship gap invisible to uncalibrated metrics. The three metrics produce near-zero pairwise correlations, with absolute r less than 0.07, confirming that without theoretical grounding, metric choice determines conclusions: an LLM judge declares a clear winner while LUAR finds no meaningful differentiation. These findings demonstrate the theory-benchmark cycle in action: authorship theory exposes evaluation failures that ad hoc benchmarks miss.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Traditional recommendation systems represent users and items as dense vectors and learn to align them in a shared latent space for relevance estimation. Recent LLM-based recommenders instead leverage natural-language representations that are easier to interpret and integrate with downstream reasoning modules. This paper studies how to construct effective textual profiles for users and items, and how to align them for recommendation. A central difficulty is that the best profile format is not known a priori: manually designed templates can be brittle and misaligned with task objectives. Moreover, generating user and item profiles independently may produce descriptions that are individually plausible yet semantically inconsistent for a specific user--item pair. We propose Duet, an interaction-aware profile generator that jointly produces user and item profiles conditioned on both user history and item evidence. Duet follows a three-stage procedure: it first turns raw histories and metadata into compact cues, then expands these cues into paired profile prompts and then generate profiles, and finally optimizes the generation policy with reinforcement learning using downstream recommendation performance as feedback. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that Duet consistently outperforms strong baselines, demonstrating the benefits of template-free profile exploration and joint user-item textual alignment.

When OpenAI deprecated GPT-4o in early 2026, thousands of users protested under #keep4o, claiming newer models had "lost their empathy." No published study has tested this claim. We conducted the first clinical measurement, evaluating three OpenAI model generations (GPT-4o, o4-mini, GPT-5-mini) across 14 emotionally challenging conversational scenarios in mental health and AI companion domains, producing 2,100 scored AI responses assessed on six psychological safety dimensions using clinically-grounded rubrics. Empathy scores are statistically indistinguishable across all three models (Kruskal-Wallis H=4.33, p=0.115). What changed is the safety posture: crisis detection improved monotonically from GPT-4o to GPT-5-mini (H=13.88, p=0.001), while advice safety declined (H=16.63, p<0.001). Per-turn trajectory analysis -- a novel methodological contribution -- reveals these shifts are sharpest during mid-conversation crisis moments invisible to aggregate scoring. In a self-harm scenario involving a minor, GPT-4o scored 3.6/10 on crisis detection during early disclosure turns; GPT-5-mini never dropped below 7.8. What users perceived as "lost empathy" was a shift from a cautious model that missed crises to an alert model that sometimes says too much -- a trade-off with real consequences for vulnerable users, currently invisible to both the people who feel it and the developers who create it.

Language models have been adopted faster than evaluation practices that reliably assess their risks, and a growing share of use is affective rather than informational. Within that traffic users disclose suicide and self-harm (SSH) crises. Existing safety benchmarks score models primarily on refusal, but refusal is not the desired behavior here; the conversation requires a substantive supportive response. We introduce DistressBench, 718 English conversations with clinician-authored user turns spanning 23 SSH subcategories, each paired with a task-specific rubric of weighted atomic criteria across seven dimensions of crisis support and a clinician reference response. A model's score is the weighted average over the criteria its reply satisfies, reading directly as the fraction of required care delivered. The best of 25 frontier models satisfies 88.4% of weighted criteria and the median model 71.4%, against 98.7% for clinician references scored on the same criteria. Pooled across all 25 models, in 35.3% of conversations where a model satisfied every criterion for recognizing the crisis, it failed to route the user toward human help. The shortfall concentrates in the dimensions requiring the model to act rather than withhold. Contrasting each dimension's median model against its best separates capability limits from choices: de-escalation reaches 74.6% in the strongest model against a median of 46.0%, and safety disclaimers 84.6% against 8.3%. Multi-turn conversations score below single-turn ones (68.5% against 74.2%). We release the corpus, rubrics, judge calibration labels, and a companion annex of 20 long-horizon red-team transcripts. These results argue for evaluating crisis safety on the care a model delivers rather than on what it declines to say, and for treating de-escalation and resource routing as deployment requirements.

A model under pushback can correct itself, capitulate, or hold, and one flip rate counts a correction and a capitulation alike. Using SycoLens, a modular replay protocol, we test how user pressure and evaluation settings shape measured flip rates. Each measurement is one stateless replay of an item, a committed answer, and one scripted user line in a fixed form. Every effect is read against a matched control with the line deleted. Pushback wording, committed text, answer format, boundary distance, and ground truth become factors of one instrument; earlier instruments vary one to three of them. Across eleven frontier models from three providers and about 760,000 controlled replays, which models look sycophantic depends on how the user pushes back. Lines that assert the opposite verdict and lines that challenge the answer without asserting one rank the models almost unrelatedly. Flip effects grow several-fold near a model's boundary, yet items answered identically in every screening draw still carry about half of the most-affected totals. On arithmetic tasks where the truth is known, one model re-derives and corrects itself under pressure while another abandons correct answers without written work. On the model tested, a planted derivation lowers release of the answer it argues for, true or wrong, where a bare stated value does not; the wrong answer is corrected much more often than the true one is abandoned. Under a yes/no readout the rankings come closer, entangled with a pressure-induced shift toward "no". One score per model therefore compares different behaviours across models and benchmarks. We condense these dependencies into a reporting profile; the instrument, records, and analyses will be released upon publication.

Automatic Speech Scoring (ASS) is the computer-assisted evaluation of a candidate's speaking proficiency in a language. ASS systems face many challenges like open grammar, variable pronunciations, and unstructured or semi-structured content. Recent deep learning approaches have shown some promise in this domain. However, most of these approaches focus on extracting features from a single audio, making them suffer from the lack of speaker-specific context required to model such a complex task. We propose a novel deep learning technique for non-native ASS, called speaker-conditioned hierarchical modeling. In our technique, we take advantage of the fact that oral proficiency tests rate multiple responses for a candidate. We extract context vectors from these responses and feed them as additional speaker-specific context to our network to score a particular response. We compare our technique with strong baselines and find that such modeling improves the model's average performance by 6.92% (maximum = 12.86%, minimum = 4.51%). We further show both quantitative and qualitative insights into the importance of this additional context in solving the problem of ASS.

High-quality pre-training data is crutial for large language models, where quality captures factual reliability and semantic value, and diversity ensures broad coverage and distributional heterogeneity. Existing approaches typically rely on single or multiple-dimensional score-based selection. However, directly selecting top-scored data often degrades performance, and sampling from a broader range is required to recover results. The above non-monotonicity between dataset scores and downstream benchmark results reveals a fundamental bias: score-based methods collapse correlated dimensions, causing top-scored data to appear high-quality while systematically overlooking diversity. We argue that ensuring diversity requires decomposing correlated metrics into orthogonal feature dimensions, from which the top-scored data can be directly selected. Therefore, we proposed the Orthogonal Diversity-Aware Selection (ODiS) algorithm, which preserves both quality and diversity during data selection. First, ODiS evaluates data from multiple dimensions, covering language quality, knowledge quality, and comprehension difficulty. The multi-dimensional scores are then decorrelated via Principal Component Analysis (PCA), yielding orthogonal evaluation dimensions. For each dimension, a Roberta-based scorer is trained to regress the data onto PCA-projected scores, enabling scalable inference on large corpora. Finally, ODiS constructs the training dataset by selecting top-scored data within each orthogonal dimension, thereby ensuring both quality and diversity. Empirical results show that ODiS-selected data exhibit less than 2\% inter-dimension overlap, confirming orthogonality between dimensions. More importantly, models trained with ODiS-selected data significantly outperform other baselines on downstream benchmarks, highlighting the necessity of orthogonal, diversity-aware data selection for LLMs.

This paper presents an eight-week observational comparison of 68 single-file HTML generations collected across 17 public experiments in the "HTML AI Battle" project between December 10, 2025 and February 4, 2026. Four reasoning model families, GPT, Gemini, Grok, and Claude, were compared under a fixed public-interface protocol with no custom instructions, no personality tuning, and no repair prompts. Each output was evaluated from a rendered browser video using human scores and a Gemini LLM-as-a-judge layer for prompt adherence, functional correctness, and UI quality, then packaged into a standardized social-media protocol spanning X (Twitter), TikTok, and YouTube. The tracker was also used for two supervised predictive analyses: an experiment-level model for 24-hour X impressions and a generation-level model for HTML verbosity. Under this protocol, Claude was the strongest and most consistent family, leading mean performance and winning 9/17 prompts under the primary human weighted score. Longer measured reasoning time was not associated with higher quality overall. Gemini as a judge was significantly more lenient than the human evaluator on functional correctness and overall performance, while stable self-favoring bias remained unresolved. The exploratory X-impressions model remained weak under post-screen cross-validation (MAE = 46,874, R^2 = -0.377), whereas the HTML-lines model performed better, with a model-family-only baseline outperforming prompt-aware alternatives (MAE = 135.2, R^2 = 0.576). Overall, selected pre-publication technical/audio variables were not sufficient to predict 24-hour X reach, while code verbosity was driven much more by model family than by prompt wording. The comparisons remain observational and are limited by public-interface drift, access-path differences, and one primary human scorer.

Agent benchmarks increasingly evaluate repository editing, web research, terminal use, and long-horizon interaction. Their scores support capability claims only when the evaluation protocol keeps the intended capability necessary for success. Recent reward-hacking benchmarks and system reports show that agents can instead recover public solutions, read evaluation artifacts, infer generator structure, manipulate feedback, or benefit from invalid scoring paths; existing responses do not provide a common procedure for attributing these shortcuts and quantifying their effect across benchmarks. We formulate protocol validity and introduce HackDetect, a post-hoc audit that identifies an exposure, determines how the agent used it, and assesses whether the resulting score is misleading. We quantify score inflation with the Mislead gap, defined as the exploit score minus the intended score. We audit 2,385 traces across 15 agent benchmarks and find evidence of exposures and reward hacking in 67.0% of Frontier Science traces and 66.7% of AutoLab tasks. Across paired comparisons, we measure score inflation of 0.45-1.00, showing that benchmark reports should provide evidence that scores reflect the intended capability.

This study examines the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) when evaluating professional candidates based on their resumes or curricula vitae (CVs). In an experiment involving 22 leading LLMs, each model was systematically given one job description along with a pair of profession-matched CVs, one bearing a male first name, the other a female first name, and asked to select the more suitable candidate for the job. Each CV pair was presented twice, with names swapped to ensure that any observed preferences in candidate selection stemmed from gendered names cues. Despite identical professional qualifications across genders, all LLMs consistently favored female-named candidates across 70 different professions. Adding an explicit gender field (male/female) to the CVs further increased the preference for female applicants. When gendered names were replaced with gender-neutral identifiers "Candidate A" and "Candidate B", several models displayed a preference to select "Candidate A". Counterbalancing gender assignment between these gender-neutral identifiers resulted in gender parity in candidate selection. When asked to rate CVs in isolation rather than compare pairs, LLMs assigned slightly higher average scores to female CVs overall, but the effect size was negligible. Including preferred pronouns (he/him or she/her) next to a candidate's name slightly increased the odds of the candidate being selected regardless of gender. Finally, most models exhibited a substantial positional bias to select the candidate listed first in the prompt. These findings underscore the need for caution when deploying LLMs in high-stakes autonomous decision-making contexts and raise doubts about whether LLMs consistently apply principled reasoning.

Consistency models are a nascent family of generative models that can sample high quality data in one step without the need for adversarial training. Current consistency models achieve optimal sample quality by distilling from pre-trained diffusion models and employing learned metrics such as LPIPS. However, distillation limits the quality of consistency models to that of the pre-trained diffusion model, and LPIPS causes undesirable bias in evaluation. To tackle these challenges, we present improved techniques for consistency training, where consistency models learn directly from data without distillation. We delve into the theory behind consistency training and identify a previously overlooked flaw, which we address by eliminating Exponential Moving Average from the teacher consistency model. To replace learned metrics like LPIPS, we adopt Pseudo-Huber losses from robust statistics. Additionally, we introduce a lognormal noise schedule for the consistency training objective, and propose to double total discretization steps every set number of training iterations. Combined with better hyperparameter tuning, these modifications enable consistency models to achieve FID scores of 2.51 and 3.25 on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64times 64 respectively in a single sampling step. These scores mark a 3.5times and 4times improvement compared to prior consistency training approaches. Through two-step sampling, we further reduce FID scores to 2.24 and 2.77 on these two datasets, surpassing those obtained via distillation in both one-step and two-step settings, while narrowing the gap between consistency models and other state-of-the-art generative models.

Modern ML systems ingest data aggregated from diverse sources, such as synthetic, human-annotated, and live customer traffic. Understanding which examples are important to the performance of a learning algorithm is crucial for efficient model training. Recently, a growing body of literature has given rise to various "influence scores," which use training artifacts such as model confidence or checkpointed gradients to identify important subsets of data. However, these methods have primarily been developed in computer vision settings, and it remains unclear how well they generalize to language-based tasks using pretrained models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of influence scores in language classification tasks. We evaluate a diverse subset of these scores on the SNLI dataset by quantifying accuracy changes in response to pruning training data through random and influence-score-based sampling. We then stress-test one of the scores -- "variance of gradients" (VoG) from Agarwal et al. (2022) -- in an NLU model stack that was exposed to dynamic user speech patterns in a voice assistant type of setting. Our experiments demonstrate that in many cases, encoder-based language models can be finetuned on roughly 50% of the original data without degradation in performance metrics. Along the way, we summarize lessons learned from applying out-of-the-box implementations of influence scores, quantify the effects of noisy and class-imbalanced data, and offer recommendations on score-based sampling for better accuracy and training efficiency.

With the advent of highly capable instruction-tuned neural language models, benchmarking in natural language processing (NLP) is increasingly shifting towards pairwise comparison leaderboards, such as LMSYS Arena, from traditional global pointwise scores (e.g., GLUE, BIG-bench, SWE-bench). This paper empirically investigates the strengths and weaknesses of both global scores and pairwise comparisons to aid decision-making in selecting appropriate model evaluation strategies. Through computational experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets using standard global metrics and the popular Bradley-Terry model for pairwise comparisons, we found that while global scores provide more reliable overall rankings, they can underestimate strong models with rare, significant errors or low confidence. Conversely, pairwise comparisons are particularly effective for identifying strong contenders among models with lower global scores, especially where quality metrics are hard to define (e.g., text generation), though they require more comparisons to converge if ties are frequent. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/HSPyroblast/srw-ranking under a permissive license.

Recent advances in instruction-guided image editing underscore the need for effective automated evaluation. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been explored as judges, open-source models struggle with alignment, and proprietary models lack transparency and cost efficiency. Additionally, no public training datasets exist to fine-tune open-source VLMs, only small benchmarks with diverse evaluation schemes. To address this, we introduce ADIEE, an automated dataset creation approach which is then used to train a scoring model for instruction-guided image editing evaluation. We generate a large-scale dataset with over 100K samples and use it to fine-tune a LLaVA-NeXT-8B model modified to decode a numeric score from a custom token. The resulting scorer outperforms all open-source VLMs and Gemini-Pro 1.5 across all benchmarks, achieving a 0.0696 (+17.24%) gain in score correlation with human ratings on AURORA-Bench, and improving pair-wise comparison accuracy by 4.03% (+7.21%) on GenAI-Bench and 4.75% (+9.35%) on AURORA-Bench, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art. The scorer can act as a reward model, enabling automated best edit selection and model fine-tuning. Notably, the proposed scorer can boost MagicBrush model's average evaluation score on ImagenHub from 5.90 to 6.43 (+8.98%). Our code and models are available at https://github.com/SherryXTChen/ADIEE.git.

Simulated evaluation is increasingly used alongside real-world evaluation of robot policies because it is cheaper and easier to repeat; however, its value depends on how closely its outcomes track the real robot's. We test whether our reconstruction pipeline, combining metrically scaled object geometry, authored physical parameters and scene reconstruction, reduces disagreement between simulated and real robot scores relative to a default open-source recipe. We constructed two simulated versions of one bimanual robot cell: an authored reconstruction, using object geometry at estimated metric scale, projected textures, authored physics and our own scene splat; and a baseline, referred to as the default reconstruction, using the open-source recipe of a generative single-image mesh, engine-default physics and a Gaussian-splat scene. Both reconstructions use the same object photographs and scene video. Two policies ran five tasks each, giving ten task-policy pairs, which we call cells; each cell was run twenty times in each reconstruction with all other settings held fixed. Both reconstructions were scored against the same real trials, graded by a third-party evaluator. Pearson correlation between the ten simulated and real cell means is r = 0.90 for the authored reconstruction and 0.51 for the default. Mean score error is 6.97 percentage points for the authored reconstruction and 17.54 for the default, a reduction of 10.56 percentage points. These results show that improving the quality of the environment reconstruction through higher visual fidelity, authored physics and metric scale makes the simulation more faithful to the real world and narrows the sim-to-real gap. We release the harness, the per-trial scores, every reported run's configuration, and the assets and scenes of both reconstructions.

Machine learning-based Type 2 diabetes risk prediction models obtain good internal validation results but lose effectiveness in real-world applications due to deficient external testing and fairness assessment. We developed a multi-dimensional framework evaluating discrimination, calibration, interpretability, and algorithmic fairness on nationally representative populations. An XGBoost model was trained on NHANES 2015-2020 (n=15,685) using eight non-laboratory predictors: age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, history of heart attack, and history of stroke. External validation was performed on BRFSS 2020-2022 (n=1,285,783) under realistic distribution shift. Internal validation showed good discrimination (AUC=0.794, 95% CI 0.788-0.800), with performance loss on external validation (AUC=0.717, relative decrease: -9.7%, p<0.001). Fairness analysis revealed severe bias: elderly adults (>=60) showed AUC=0.607 vs 0.742 for young adults (difference=0.135, p<0.001); obese individuals showed AUC=0.698 vs 0.735 for normal weight (difference=0.037, p<0.001). Gender showed comparable performance (male=0.723 vs female=0.712, p=0.142). Calibration revealed risk overestimation (Brier score=0.123). SHAP analysis identified age, BMI, and physical activity as primary risk drivers. Populations with highest diabetes risk receive the worst algorithmic performance, underscoring the need for fairness-aware, age-stratified deployment strategies before clinical use.

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

Multimodal large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as automated evaluators in clinical settings, yet their scoring behavior on ordinal clinical scales remains poorly understood. We benchmark three frontier LLM families against supervised deep learning models for scoring Clock Drawing Test (CDT) images on two public datasets using the Shulman rubric. While fully fine-tuned Vision Transformers achieve the best calibration (MAE 0.52, within-1 accuracy 91%), zero-shot LLMs remain competitive on tolerance-based agreement (GPT-5 MAE 0.67, within-1 accuracy 92%) despite higher absolute error. However, per-score analysis reveals that all three LLM families exhibit a pronounced central tendency effect (systematic endpoint compression): predictions are systematically compressed toward the middle of the scale, with over-prediction at the low end (score 0 to 1) and under-prediction at the high end (score 5 to 4). This effect disproportionately affects the clinically critical extremes where accurate scoring most impacts screening decisions for cognitive impairment. Targeted ablations show that neither few-shot exemplars spanning the full score range nor removing clinical terminology from the prompt eliminates the effect. Our findings extend the LLM-as-a-judge bias literature from NLP evaluation to clinical assessment, and highlight the need for calibration-aware evaluation and post-hoc calibration before deploying LLM-based raters in high-stakes screening workflows.

Current preference learning methods achieve high accuracy on standard benchmarks but exhibit significant performance degradation when objective quality signals are removed. We introduce WritingPreferenceBench, a dataset of 1,800 human-annotated preference pairs (1,200 English, 600 Chinese) across 8 creative writing genres, where responses are matched for objective correctness, factual accuracy, and length. On this benchmark, sequence-based reward models--the standard architecture for RLHF--achieve only 52.7% mean accuracy, while zero-shot language model judges perform at 53.9%. In contrast, generative reward models that produce explicit reasoning chains achieve 81.8% accuracy. We observe high within-model variance across genres: individual models range from 18.2% to 81.8% accuracy across different writing categories, with standard deviations averaging 10.1%. This variance persists regardless of model scale, with 27B parameter models showing no consistent improvement over 8B variants. Our results suggest that current RLHF methods primarily learn to detect objective errors rather than capture subjective quality preferences (e.g., creativity, stylistic flair, and emotional resonance), and that successful preference modeling may require intermediate reasoning representations rather than direct classification.

Leaderboards rank long-horizon agents by their final outputs. Yet a higher score alone does not establish whether two systems are comparable or which stage accounts for the difference. Unequal evidence, inputs, or budgets can affect scores, and statistical corrections do not remove this mismatch. We introduce compositional controllability to address these questions. A comparison window covers one stage, several stages, or the whole agent. Our central result bounds the gap between observed and controlled score differences using only nuisance outside the window. This yields an admissibility test applied before scores are inspected. Inadmissible comparisons are refused. For admissible pairs, an ordering is certified only when the score gap exceeds the combined sampling and nuisance radii; otherwise, it remains undecided. These decisions give each system a rank interval. We introduce BioLitBench, a benchmark of 2,042 biomedical articles represented as structured claim graphs. Among seven published pipelines, a conventional statistical analysis declares a winner in 14 of 21 pairwise comparisons. Yet the top-ranked system alone received the target review's bibliography. To isolate pipeline performance, our test requires matched inputs and a fixed backbone model. It refuses 11 of the 21 comparisons, including every comparison involving the top-ranked system. Seven of the 14 conventional conclusions fall within these refused pairs. The same comparison windows support stage-level training. We train SCRIBE on Qwen3.8-27B using rewards measured at each stage's exit. Under matched evidence, SCRIBE achieves a certified rank interval of [1,2], with certified advantages over all evaluated published pipelines and the evaluated Claude and OpenAI agents. Under same pool, SCRIBE matches the strongest published retriever and is certified above three published pipelines.

Coding-agent benchmarks are built for broad and comprehensive comparisons, not frequent development decisions. Individual runs vary, full suites are expensive, and the benchmark harness may differ from the harness used in practice. In a resampling analysis of DeepSWE's published trials, only 19.5% of tasks (22 of 113) had a fifth-percentile Pearson correlation of at least 0.50 with full-benchmark performance. The paper presents DeltaSelect, an open-source method that identifies tasks whose one-run results consistently track full-benchmark performance using Pearson correlation, maps fractional verifier results to a common score using linear regression, and selects a fixed task set within a dollar budget. DeltaSelect is intended for repeated baseline-versus-candidate comparisons during development, not model rankings. In a gpt-5.6-luna low-reasoning case study, DeltaSelect was used to revise custom skills and instructions. Across 13 evaluations, the recorded cost was USD 27.86 at rates published August 16, 2026. The adopted version cost 58.1% less than the initial version (USD 1.75 versus USD 4.18; p=0.008), while the calibrated score was higher (42.36% versus 36.46%; published-analog variance p=0.326).

Prefill-only decision models inspired by the Jev model score every candidate in a menu during a single forward pass and never decode, which makes one call one to two orders of magnitude cheaper than a same-scale generative language model. We show that this read-out structure comes with a testable property. When an intervention changes only the candidate menu and leaves the input text fixed, the post-intervention accuracy is already determined by the cached first-pass distribution. The estimator restricts the pass-1 probabilities to the menu, renormalizes, and reads off the argmax; it uses no labels and no second forward pass. Across seven model families, ten datasets and two task types, menu-only interventions are predicted to within 4.2 points, and for one family the prediction is exact. A probability-level variant of the same estimator errs by 21.0 points, so the property lives in the ranking rather than in the probabilities and is not recovered by calibration. Same-scale generative language models do not share the property. On those models the same estimator errs by 1.6 to 15.8 points and degrades as the model grows. The property turns inference-time compute into a decision that can be made before deployment. Uniform extra passes buy calibration but almost no accuracy; at matched cost a confidence cascade outperforms every scheme that re-asks the same model, and curating the menu beats enlarging the model, with a 0.8B model on a curated 5-candidate menu reaching 95.4% on CLINC150 against 80.0% for a 4B model on the full 150-label menu.Code and data are available at https://github.com/rlisml/jev-cascade.

Physicians now pose millions of clinical questions to AI tools each week, yet these tools are evaluated largely on hypothetical or exam-style questions, not those actually asked in practice. We report a blinded evaluation built on 620 Real-world Point-Of-Care Queries (Real-POCQi) submitted to the OpenEvidence (OE) platform by physicians spanning 30 specialties, as well as 187 questions from HealthBench. 149 practicing physicians across 36 states made head-to-head comparisons between answers from three frontier general-purpose models (Claude Opus 4.8, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.5) and a specialized clinical tool (OE), with graders matched to each question's specialty. When comparing answers along five dimensions relevant to clinical decision support -- accuracy, clinical utility, source quality, verifiability, & completeness -- physicians scored the specialized tool highest on all axes; in the primary analysis on Real-POCQi, win differences (margins between win and loss rates) ranged from 25 to 39 percentage points (p<0.001). Results remained consistent in sensitivity analyses stratifying by citation display, answer length, OE-user status, and Real-POCQi versus HealthBench. In parallel, LLM judges were found to systematically differ from expert judges, though both generally agreed on the best model. These findings underscore two conclusions: (i) AI tool evaluations should reflect real-world query distributions and use expert judges that mirror the specialization defining modern medicine and (ii) the consistent advantage of the specialized tool over general-purpose models does not necessarily mean that the latter cannot serve similar purposes, but that targeted engineering and customization can yield meaningful gains in performance for its users. We release Real-POCQi as a public benchmark, as well as the prespecified statistical analysis for reproducing results of this study.

We propose a new score-based model with one-step sampling. Previously, score-based models were burdened with heavy computations due to iterative sampling. For substituting the iterative process, we train a standalone generator to compress all the time steps with the gradient backpropagated from the score network. In order to produce meaningful gradients for the generator, the score network is trained to simultaneously match the real data distribution and mismatch the fake data distribution. This model has the following advantages: 1) For sampling, it generates a fake image with only one step forward. 2) For training, it only needs 10 diffusion steps.3) Compared with consistency model, it is free of the ill-posed problem caused by consistency loss. On the popular CIFAR-10 dataset, our model outperforms Consistency Model and Denoising Score Matching, which demonstrates the potential of the framework. We further provide more examples on the MINIST and LSUN datasets. The code is available on GitHub.

Deep research (DR) agents address open-ended information needs through multi-step reasoning, long-horizon web search, and evidence synthesis. However, existing benchmarks primarily focus on academic research or synthetic tasks, leaving DR agents' capabilities in real-world life and professional productivity settings insufficiently evaluated. To bridge this gap, we introduce LifeSearch, a challenging benchmark comprising 203 Chinese and English tasks derived from real-user query seeds across 7 concrete life and productivity domains. With more than 4,500 hours of human annotation, we construct over 4,000 expert-written, fine-grained rubrics, covering both report-content criteria for coverage and accuracy and concrete criteria specifying values, units, dates, and URLs. We conduct extensive experiments on 12 advanced DR agents under a unified evaluation harness, systematically analyzing their performance patterns and failure modes. We find that even the best-performing frontier agent, GPT-5.6 Sol, achieves a score of only 63.4%, leaving substantial room for improvement on realistic life and professional DR tasks. We select the grading configuration by comparing candidate LLM judges against human rubric labels, and a human ranking study shows strong alignment between aggregate benchmark scores and human judgments (Spearman's ρ= 0.89, Kendall's τ= 0.81). LifeSearch provides a rigorous evaluation framework and foundation for advancing DR agents toward real-world life and productivity.

Experimental studies of generative AI in education mostly report average effects, yet field evidence shows that AI can narrow attainment gaps or widen them. We argue that the direction depends on the judgement burden, the expertise a learner must supply to screen AI output before learning from it, and that expert verification before release moves this burden from students to an accountable tutor. We test the argument in a two-cohort difference-in-differences design in which one half of a compulsory firstyear university economics course received AI-generated podcasts, FAQs and quiz-based study guides, produced with a source-grounded model and checked by a named graduate teaching assistant (170 students; 340 examination marks). Access was associated with a 2.34-mark advantage on a 50-mark component. The share of marks below the upper-second classification boundary fell by 24.7 percentage points relative to the counterfactual, effects were significant at every threshold from 23 to 31 marks and at none above, and roughly three-quarters of the average originated in the bottom quintile. The threshold estimate is robust to removing the lowest-scoring students from the pre-intervention cohort; the average effect is not. Interviews and feedback from 36 students indicate that the verification label gave students a reason to engage with AI-generated material without ending their scrutiny of it. Evaluations of AI learning resources that report only mean effects cannot detect whether the students the resources are meant to help are the ones who gain.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

AI evaluation suites often report many scores without checking whether those scores carry independent information. We introduce Effective Dimensionality (ED), the participation ratio of a centered benchmark-score spectrum, as a fast, population-conditional upper-bound diagnostic of measurement breadth. Applied at per-instance granularity to 22 benchmarks across 8 domains and more than 8,400 model evaluations, ED reveals substantial redundancy: the six-score Open LLM Leaderboard behaves like roughly two effective measurement axes (ED = 1.7), BBH and MMLU-Pro are near-interchangeable (rho = 0.96, stable across seven subpopulations), and measurement breadth varies more than 20x across current benchmarks. We show that relative ED rankings are stable under matched-dimension controls and that ED can flag redundant suite components, monitor performance-conditional compression, and guide benchmark maintenance. Because binary spectra overestimate absolute latent dimensionality, we interpret ED as a screening statistic rather than a literal factor count and complement it with null, reliability, and saturation analyses. We provide a 22-benchmark reference atlas and a four-step diagnostic workflow that benchmark maintainers can run with a score matrix and a few lines of code.

We introduce Crypto Accounting Bench (CAB), a benchmark for assessing whether frontier and open-weight language models can reconstruct the complete journal entry that an organization actually posted for a crypto-asset transaction. CAB contains 118 evaluation tasks drawn from 7 pseudonymized organizations. Each task combines transaction mechanics, asset quantities and base-currency values, wallet and legal-entity context, counterparty evidence, related transaction legs, recurrence, tax-lot evidence, and the organization's complete chart of accounts. The target is a balanced structured entry with every required account, side, amount, currency, and full-precision asset quantity. We evaluate 12 models spanning proprietary frontier systems and open-weight releases over 3 independent attempts per task, producing 4,248 trajectories. We report 3 metrics: Mean Score, Best@3, and Pass@3. Pass@3 is the fraction of tasks with at least 1 of 3 attempts that satisfies every rubric criterion and required gate. The leading model reaches 77.43% Mean Score, while the best Pass@3 is 56.78%. Deterministic diagnostics, read from each task's best of 3 attempts and macro-averaged across the 12 models, show higher base-amount agreement (97.8%) than deciding-account accuracy (56.3%). Together with the failure analysis, these results identify account selection and complete-entry composition as the main remaining challenges on CAB.

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

We introduce Vox-Profile, a comprehensive benchmark to characterize rich speaker and speech traits using speech foundation models. Unlike existing works that focus on a single dimension of speaker traits, Vox-Profile provides holistic and multi-dimensional profiles that reflect both static speaker traits (e.g., age, sex, accent) and dynamic speech properties (e.g., emotion, speech flow). This benchmark is grounded in speech science and linguistics, developed with domain experts to accurately index speaker and speech characteristics. We report benchmark experiments using over 15 publicly available speech datasets and several widely used speech foundation models that target various static and dynamic speaker and speech properties. In addition to benchmark experiments, we showcase several downstream applications supported by Vox-Profile. First, we show that Vox-Profile can augment existing speech recognition datasets to analyze ASR performance variability. Vox-Profile is also used as a tool to evaluate the performance of speech generation systems. Finally, we assess the quality of our automated profiles through comparison with human evaluation and show convergent validity. Vox-Profile is publicly available at: https://github.com/tiantiaf0627/vox-profile-release.

Reliable end-to-end clinical report generation has been a longstanding goal of medical ML research. The end goal for this process is to alleviate radiologists' workloads and provide second opinions to clinicians or patients. Thus, a necessary prerequisite for report generation models is a strong general performance and some type of innate grounding capability, to convince clinicians or patients of the veracity of the generated reports. In this paper, we present ASaRG (Automatic Segmentation-assisted Report Generation), an extension of the popular LLaVA architecture that aims to tackle both of these problems. ASaRG proposes to fuse intermediate features and fine-grained segmentation maps created by specialist radiological models into LLaVA's multi-modal projection layer via simple concatenation. With a small number of added parameters, our approach achieves a +0.89\% performance gain (p=0.012) in CE F1 score compared to the LLaVA baseline when using only intermediate features, and +2.77\% performance gain (p<0.001) when adding a combination of intermediate features and fine-grained segmentation maps. Compared with COMG and ORID, two other report generation methods that utilize segmentations, the performance gain amounts to 6.98\% and 6.28\% in F1 score, respectively. ASaRG is not mutually exclusive with other changes made to the LLaVA architecture, potentially allowing our method to be combined with other advances in the field. Finally, the use of an arbitrary number of segmentations as part of the input demonstrably allows tracing elements of the report to the corresponding segmentation maps and verifying the groundedness of assessments. Our code will be made publicly available at a later date.

System One models answer typed questions in a single forward pass and promise the same answer for the same input. For choice questions, this promise fails: the answer depends on the order of the options, increasingly so as they grow in number, and averaging over their cyclic shifts reduces this dependence without removing it. Scoring each option alone, which the order cannot affect, shows that the order changes the answer mostly when the model is unsure among its top few options, even though the listwise answer looks confident. We therefore propose Runoff, which considers, then chooses: it scores each option alone to keep a few candidates, then compares them in listings where each candidate takes every position. It needs no training and can run in two forward passes, and its answer does not depend on the option order by construction. On two open models and five datasets, it changes no answer under shuffling, against 9.3% for cyclic averaging, and with 20 options it is about as accurate and three to four times faster. Wrapped around eight System One models, it removes the order dependence of the five benchmarks, while cyclic averaging changes up to 15.4%.

The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model with a CV-GRNN model. We first identify critical statistical indicators via Principal Component Analysis and then develop a two-tier fuzzy model based on the Wimbledon data. In addition, the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficient indicate that the momentum indicators, such as Player Win Streak and Score Difference, have a strong correlation among them, revealing insightful trends among players transitioning between losing and winning streaks. Subsequently, we refine the CV-GRNN model by incorporating 15 statistically significant indicators, resulting in an increase in accuracy to 86.64% and a decrease in MSE by 49.21%. This consequently strengthens the methodological framework for predicting tennis match outcomes, emphasizing its practical utility and potential for adaptation in various athletic contexts.

As large-language models have been increasingly used as automatic raters for evaluating free-form content, including document summarization, dialog, and story generation, work has been dedicated to evaluating such models by measuring their correlations with human judgment. For sample-level performance, methods which operate by using pairwise comparisons between machine-generated text perform well but often lack the ability to assign absolute scores to individual summaries, an ability crucial for use cases that require thresholding. In this work, we propose a direct-scoring method which uses synthetic summaries to act as pairwise machine rankings at test time. We show that our method performs comparably to state-of-the-art pairwise evaluators in terms of axis-averaged sample-level correlations on the SummEval (+0.03), TopicalChat (-0.03), and HANNA (+0.05) meta-evaluation benchmarks, and release the synthetic in-context summaries as data to facilitate future work.

Does personalizing what a reader sees pay off, and where does it stop? Using a social web highlighter and a co-readership identity control (the same document highlighted by many users, which holds document and topic fixed and asks whether a person's own history predicts their marks better than another reader's does), we map the shape and limits of personalization across reading altitudes. At the document altitude we give the clean, leakage-free, identity-controlled measurement that prior next-document evaluations could only upper-bound: a person's history identifies which documents in a co-reading neighborhood are theirs, with an own-versus-other gap of +0.169 against community negatives and +0.119 against topic-matched hard negatives (both highly significant); a content-based arm suggests the signal is not purely title-driven but is largely thematic. This is comparable to the span-level selection signal (+0.14) from our prior work: the selection signal is of comparable magnitude across altitudes (+0.12 to +0.17), most of it stable topic preference. At the sentence altitude, a two-stage personalized auto-highlight (an impersonal model proposes candidates, a personal model re-ranks them) does not improve on its impersonal baseline: two off-the-shelf zero-shot LLMs, including a frontier model, predict highlight locations worse than a lead baseline, and personal re-ranking is beaten by the salience order even on the highest-recall candidate pool, so the null is not merely a Stage-1 ceiling artifact. Measurable personalization appears primarily at the selection layer: modest (~+0.13), topic-dominated, with no reliable gain at the salience layer. We also surface a control-in-negatives bias that inflated our document gap to a spurious +0.227 until audited. Going beyond the shared salience layer may be better approached by aggregating individuals than by personalizing them harder.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Many language tasks have no single answer that can be checked automatically. Rubrics provide criteria for judging responses to these tasks. For reinforcement learning, the resulting verdicts must be combined into a scalar reward. A common approach sums the points assigned to satisfied criteria. Distinct verdict patterns can thus receive the same reward, and the fixed points encode how much each criterion should count, not how strongly its verdict distinguishes the current rollouts. Beyond this aggregation problem, judging the full rubric needs more judge requests as the criterion count grows. To address these limitations, Rubric Response Theory (RRT) measures quality and selects criteria when rubric criteria are monotone indicators of a shared target. Rather than adding assigned points, RRT uses a two parameter item response model that treats the verdict pattern as evidence about scalar quality specific to the rubric. Under this model, its likelihood score maximizes the local signal-to-noise ratio for quality. Its Response Parameter Network (RPN) reads the prompt and criterion text to predict criterion difficulty and discrimination. As the policy distribution changes during training, RRT uses online expectation maximization to update the RPN from current rollout verdicts. With Qwen3.5-4B as the policy, RRT's macro criterion score across Medical, Science, Rubrics as Rewards Science, and RubricBench is 1.7 points above that of group relative policy optimization (GRPO). On hard and very hard criteria in Medical and Science, RRT gains 2.8 to 5.6 points over GRPO. At half the criterion budget, adaptive Fisher selection with a frozen RPN keeps the macro criterion score across four datasets within 0.1 points of GRPO with full judging. These results show RRT can reduce judge requests while remaining competitive with GRPO.

We introduce Agent K v1.0, an end-to-end autonomous data science agent designed to automate, optimise, and generalise across diverse data science tasks. Fully automated, Agent K v1.0 manages the entire data science life cycle by learning from experience. It leverages a highly flexible structured reasoning framework to enable it to dynamically process memory in a nested structure, effectively learning from accumulated experience stored to handle complex reasoning tasks. It optimises long- and short-term memory by selectively storing and retrieving key information, guiding future decisions based on environmental rewards. This iterative approach allows it to refine decisions without fine-tuning or backpropagation, achieving continuous improvement through experiential learning. We evaluate our agent's apabilities using Kaggle competitions as a case study. Following a fully automated protocol, Agent K v1.0 systematically addresses complex and multimodal data science tasks, employing Bayesian optimisation for hyperparameter tuning and feature engineering. Our new evaluation framework rigorously assesses Agent K v1.0's end-to-end capabilities to generate and send submissions starting from a Kaggle competition URL. Results demonstrate that Agent K v1.0 achieves a 92.5\% success rate across tasks, spanning tabular, computer vision, NLP, and multimodal domains. When benchmarking against 5,856 human Kaggle competitors by calculating Elo-MMR scores for each, Agent K v1.0 ranks in the top 38\%, demonstrating an overall skill level comparable to Expert-level users. Notably, its Elo-MMR score falls between the first and third quartiles of scores achieved by human Grandmasters. Furthermore, our results indicate that Agent K v1.0 has reached a performance level equivalent to Kaggle Grandmaster, with a record of 6 gold, 3 silver, and 7 bronze medals, as defined by Kaggle's progression system.

Indic quality estimation (QE) and automatic post-editing (APE) data is spread across separate releases, so no single resource supports training and evaluation across tasks and language pairs on one footing. We consolidate the WMT 2020--2024 shared-task lineage with an extended English--Malayalam resource into \indicqe: 126{,}754 instances over nine directional pairs, with up to four label types aligned on the same segment, a direct assessment, a human post-edit, word-level OK/BAD tags and an error explanation, and a test set stratified over four difficulty axes. On it, we benchmark six prompted LLMs and three COMET metrics on segment-level QE, and three systems on APE. Two of the axes are defined partly on the direct assessment and select a compressed slice of it, so each axis is compared against a control drawn from the same language pair with the same score distribution. Only one survives that control: segments whose holistic and token-level quality signals conflict are ranked worse than equally-scored segments of the same language, for all nine systems and all seven pairs that carry the axis. Annotator disagreement, which looks second-hardest without the control, has no effect with it. Few-shot prompting costs every model leq 3.4B both correlation and output-format compliance. Within-language accuracy does not make scores comparable across pairs: of the three trained metrics, the one with the best within-language correlation loses most when the pairs are pooled. The benchmark and code will be released.

Decision APIs that return a probability for each option are routinely used as if those probabilities were properties of the options themselves. That reading is valid only if the model satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA): adding an option that is neither the right answer nor its strongest rival should leave the odds between those two unchanged. We test this in a pre-registered study of jev-1.13.0, a hosted decision model, using 299,463 calls on intent classification (BANKING77, CLINC150) and topic classification (AG News). Every added option moves the log-odds between the gold label and the strongest wrong label: the root-mean-square systematic shift is 0.20-0.52 nats, 1.2 to 3 times the run-to-run variation, even when the added option takes at most 0.1% of the probability mass. The shifts are directional. An option similar to the wrong answer draws probability from it (+0.10 nats toward the gold label). A paraphrase of the wrong answer produces an intermediate pattern: the gold label's probability is almost conserved, but the paraphrase receives only about a third of the wrong answer's share rather than the half that strict substitution implies. The distortion grows steadily with the logarithm of the number of options, reaching about 1 nat at 255 options, and off-domain padding pushes the odds against the gold label. In contrast, questions packed into one call do not interact (bias < 0.001). Scoring each option with an independent yes/no question removes the option-set dependence but picks the right answer 8.7 points less often. Jev sits between two local baselines, an option-independent scorer and a prompt readout. Its probabilities are best read as relative to the option list they were computed over.

Large language models are increasingly deployed in education as tutors, teaching assistants, and content generators. These roles place demands that ordinary question answering does not: a usable education-facing model is supposed to be accurate, safe under sensitive prompts, instructionally useful, and aligned with pedagogical goals at the same time. Existing benchmarks evaluate these requirements largely in isolation, so none assesses education-facing suitability as an integrated profile. We introduce ELBench, the first benchmark to evaluate all four requirements (General Capability, Safety and Trustworthiness, Basic Education, and High-Level Cultivation) on the same models under a common protocol, combining curated public sources with newly synthesized safety and cultivation data. We evaluate nine models, seven frontier general-purpose systems and two education-specialized variants, and report three findings. First, module-level profiles are more informative than a single aggregate: the top six models are statistically indistinguishable on overall score, yet their module leaders differ substantially, and safety is anti-correlated with practical teaching (r = -0.83). Second, the Chinese-developed models lead the safety module, the most discriminative in the suite; this advantage is largest on region-specific normative content and narrows, but does not vanish, on universal-harm content. Third, the two education-specialized models lead neither education module, and on High-Level Cultivation all models share a systematic blind spot: on the structured judgment task they converge on the same non-reference option, favoring pedagogical style over fit to the stated goal, so the module scores uniformly low and does not separate models. This raises, but does not resolve, whether domain post-training keeps pace with frontier systems on education tasks.

In this paper, we present the main findings and compare the results of SemEval-2020 Task 10, Emphasis Selection for Written Text in Visual Media. The goal of this shared task is to design automatic methods for emphasis selection, i.e. choosing candidates for emphasis in textual content to enable automated design assistance in authoring. The main focus is on short text instances for social media, with a variety of examples, from social media posts to inspirational quotes. Participants were asked to model emphasis using plain text with no additional context from the user or other design considerations. SemEval-2020 Emphasis Selection shared task attracted 197 participants in the early phase and a total of 31 teams made submissions to this task. The highest-ranked submission achieved 0.823 Matchm score. The analysis of systems submitted to the task indicates that BERT and RoBERTa were the most common choice of pre-trained models used, and part of speech tag (POS) was the most useful feature. Full results can be found on the task's website.

Activation-based steering can personalize large language models at inference time, but its effects in educational settings remain unclear. We study persona vectors for seven character traits in short-answer generation and automated scoring on the ASAP-SAS benchmark across three models spanning two architectures. Persona steering lowers answer quality overall, with much larger effects on open-ended English Language Arts (ELA) prompts than on factual science prompts; interpretive and argumentative tasks are up to 11x more sensitive. On the scoring side, we observe predictable valence-aligned calibration shifts: evil and impolite scorers grade more harshly, while good and optimistic scorers grade more leniently. ELA tasks are 2.5-3x more susceptible to scorer personalization than science tasks, and the Mixture-of-Experts model shows roughly 6x larger calibration shifts than the dense models. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically examine the effects of activation-steered persona traits in educational generation and scoring, and the results highlight the need for task-aware and architecture-aware calibration when deploying steered models in educational settings.

Current studies on adversarial robustness mainly focus on aggregating local robustness results from a set of data samples to evaluate and rank different models. However, the local statistics may not well represent the true global robustness of the underlying unknown data distribution. To address this challenge, this paper makes the first attempt to present a new framework, called GREAT Score , for global robustness evaluation of adversarial perturbation using generative models. Formally, GREAT Score carries the physical meaning of a global statistic capturing a mean certified attack-proof perturbation level over all samples drawn from a generative model. For finite-sample evaluation, we also derive a probabilistic guarantee on the sample complexity and the difference between the sample mean and the true mean. GREAT Score has several advantages: (1) Robustness evaluations using GREAT Score are efficient and scalable to large models, by sparing the need of running adversarial attacks. In particular, we show high correlation and significantly reduced computation cost of GREAT Score when compared to the attack-based model ranking on RobustBench (Croce,et. al. 2021). (2) The use of generative models facilitates the approximation of the unknown data distribution. In our ablation study with different generative adversarial networks (GANs), we observe consistency between global robustness evaluation and the quality of GANs. (3) GREAT Score can be used for remote auditing of privacy-sensitive black-box models, as demonstrated by our robustness evaluation on several online facial recognition services.

AI reviewers are increasingly used to assess scientific manuscripts, yet it remains unclear whether their judgments reflect the improvements authors make through revision. We investigate this question using PaperTrajectory-2026, the 2026 release of PaperTrajectory, a dataset of 6,959 paper trajectories across five AI conferences, with automatic annotations of changes along 14 dimensions and separate judgments of overall quality. The annotations show that major improvements emphasize empirical evidence and framing, while later revisions tend toward incremental improvement. Using independent assessments of manuscript versions from eight AI reviewers, we examine whether annotated major improvements receive higher scores, which revision dimensions are associated with score changes, and whether user opinions can outweigh observed revision gains. Every reviewer leaves scores unchanged on most major improvements, and agreement on the direction of score changes is weak. Revision dimensions show some reviewer-specific associations with score increases, but provide limited predictive discrimination and no consistent guide across reviewers. Even when a revision earns a higher neutral score, a brief negative user opinion can erase or reverse that advantage, with substantial variation across reviewers. These findings show that substantive revisions are not consistently reflected in review scores and that observed scoring gains can be vulnerable to user framing, motivating assessments that connect manuscript evidence to overall judgments and remain stable when no scientific evidence changes.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed for high-stakes medical applications, there has emerged a critical need for reliable and accurate evaluation methodologies. Traditional accuracy metrics fail inadequately as they neither capture question characteristics nor offer topic-specific insights. To address this gap, we introduce MedIRT, a rigorous evaluation framework grounded in Item Response Theory (IRT), the gold standard in high-stakes educational testing. Unlike previous research relying on archival data, we prospectively gathered fresh responses from 80 diverse LLMs on a balanced, 1,100-question USMLE-aligned benchmark. Using one unidimensional two-parameter logistic IRT model per topic, we estimate LLM's latent model ability jointly with question difficulty and discrimination, yielding more stable and nuanced performance rankings than accuracy alone. Notably, we identify distinctive ``spiky'' ability profiles, where overall rankings can be misleading due to highly specialized model abilities. While GPT-5 was the top performer in a majority of domains (8 of 11), it was outperformed in Social Science and Communication by Claude-3-opus, demonstrating that even an overall 23rd-ranked model can hold the top spot for specific competencies. Furthermore, we demonstrate IRT's utility in auditing benchmarks by identifying flawed questions. We synthesize these findings into a practical decision-support framework that integrates our multi-factor competency profiles with operational metrics. This work establishes a robust, psychometrically grounded methodology essential for the safe, effective, and trustworthy deployment of LLMs in healthcare.

Score-based generative models (SGMs) sample from a target distribution by iteratively transforming noise using the score function of the perturbed target. For any finite training set, this score function can be evaluated in closed form, but the resulting SGM memorizes its training data and does not generate novel samples. In practice, one approximates the score by training a neural network via score-matching. The error in this approximation promotes generalization, but neural SGMs are costly to train and sample, and the effective regularization this error provides is not well-understood theoretically. In this work, we instead explicitly smooth the closed-form score to obtain an SGM that generates novel samples without training. We analyze our model and propose an efficient nearest-neighbor-based estimator of its score function. Using this estimator, our method achieves competitive sampling times while running on consumer-grade CPUs.

Latent variable (LV) models are widely used in psychological research to investigate relationships among unobservable constructs. When one-stage estimation of the overall LV model is challenging, two-stage factor score regression (FSR) serves as a convenient alternative: the measurement model is fitted to obtain factor scores in the first stage, which are then used to fit the structural model in the subsequent stage. However, naive application of FSR is known to yield biased estimates of structural parameters. In this paper, we develop a generic bias-correction framework for two-stage estimation of parametric statistical models and tailor it specifically to FSR. Unlike existing bias-corrected FSR solutions, the proposed method applies to a broader class of LV models and does not require computing specific types of factor scores. We establish the root-n consistency of the proposed bias-corrected two-stage estimator under mild regularity conditions. To ensure broad applicability and minimize reliance on complex analytical derivations, we introduce a stochastic approximation algorithm for point estimation and a Monte Carlo-based procedure for variance estimation. In a sequence of Monte Carlo experiments, we demonstrate that the bias-corrected FSR estimator performs comparably to the ``gold standard'' one-stage maximum likelihood estimator. These results suggest that our approach offers a straightforward yet effective alternative for estimating LV models.

Current benchmarks for AI clinician systems, often based on multiple-choice exams or manual rubrics, fail to capture the depth, robustness, and safety required for real-world clinical practice. To address this, we introduce the GAPS framework, a multidimensional paradigm for evaluating Grounding (cognitive depth), Adequacy (answer completeness), Perturbation (robustness), and Safety. Critically, we developed a fully automated, guideline-anchored pipeline to construct a GAPS-aligned benchmark end-to-end, overcoming the scalability and subjectivity limitations of prior work. Our pipeline assembles an evidence neighborhood, creates dual graph and tree representations, and automatically generates questions across G-levels. Rubrics are synthesized by a DeepResearch agent that mimics GRADE-consistent, PICO-driven evidence review in a ReAct loop. Scoring is performed by an ensemble of large language model (LLM) judges. Validation confirmed our automated questions are high-quality and align with clinician judgment. Evaluating state-of-the-art models on the benchmark revealed key failure modes: performance degrades sharply with increased reasoning depth (G-axis), models struggle with answer completeness (A-axis), and they are highly vulnerable to adversarial perturbations (P-axis) as well as certain safety issues (S-axis). This automated, clinically-grounded approach provides a reproducible and scalable method for rigorously evaluating AI clinician systems and guiding their development toward safer, more reliable clinical practice.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

We introduce MetroLLM-Bench, a 955-case benchmark for testing language models as the policy layer of a transit kiosk. It covers six real metro systems, ranging from 37 to 414 stations, and eleven categories that include routing, fare calculation, disruptions, accessibility, and adversarial input. In each case, the model must call structured tools and submit a machine-renderable terminal state containing an outcome, a per-ticket fare quote when applicable, and a kiosk action. Fourteen deterministic scoring components form Tier 1; eight semantic-quality components form Tier 2, six of which use a language-model judge. We report Tier 1 and the combined score of both tiers. A stratified 75/25 split reserves 717 cases for training-data generation and 238 for held-out evaluation. We evaluate twenty-six models from six vendors, of which twenty-three are ranked. On the held-out partition, a 4B Qwen 3.5 student trained through parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) exceeds both GPT-5.6 tiers on Tier 1 (91.3 against 90.6 and 90.0) and matches GPT-5.4 full at maximum reasoning effort (91.4), with a 2.6 GB Q4_K_M footprint. Larger 9B and 27B students provide no further Tier 1 improvement over the 4B student at this training scale. Across the four Qwen sizes, the PEFT gain over the corresponding base model decreases from +7.03 points at 2B (three training seeds) to -0.91 at 27B; every seed shows the same direction at every size. A deterministic rule-based baseline reaches 84.6 on Tier 1, with the remaining language-model advantage concentrated in policy adaptation, compound scenarios, accessibility, and temporal reasoning. Muse Glimmer 30B leads the composite ranking, and serving configuration alone moves the Qwen 3.5-to-3.8 comparison by 2.7 Tier 1 points. The benchmark, harness, reproduction guide, and fine-tuned students are released at https://github.com/continker/metrollm-bench.

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees in multi-class classification. However, existing methods often rely on a single score function, which can limit their efficiency and informativeness. We propose a novel approach that combines multiple score functions to improve the performance of conformal predictors by identifying optimal weights that minimize prediction set size. Our theoretical analysis establishes a connection between the weighted score functions and subgraph classes of functions studied in Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory, providing a rigorous mathematical basis for understanding the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experiments demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage, offering a principled and data-driven way to enhance the efficiency and practicality of conformal prediction in classification tasks.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.