Daily Papers

In this paper, we tackle the problem of online semi-supervised learning (SSL). When data arrive in a stream, the dual problems of computation and data storage arise for any SSL method. We propose a fast approximate online SSL algorithm that solves for the harmonic solution on an approximate graph. We show, both empirically and theoretically, that good behavior can be achieved by collapsing nearby points into a set of local "representative points" that minimize distortion. Moreover, we regularize the harmonic solution to achieve better stability properties. We apply our algorithm to face recognition and optical character recognition applications to show that we can take advantage of the manifold structure to outperform the previous methods. Unlike previous heuristic approaches, we show that our method yields provable performance bounds.

In this paper, we present improved learning-augmented algorithms for the multi-option ski rental problem. Learning-augmented algorithms take ML predictions as an added part of the input and incorporates these predictions in solving the given problem. Due to their unique strength that combines the power of ML predictions with rigorous performance guarantees, they have been extensively studied in the context of online optimization problems. Even though ski rental problems are one of the canonical problems in the field of online optimization, only deterministic algorithms were previously known for multi-option ski rental, with or without learning augmentation. We present the first randomized learning-augmented algorithm for this problem, surpassing previous performance guarantees given by deterministic algorithms. Our learning-augmented algorithm is based on a new, provably best-possible randomized competitive algorithm for the problem. Our results are further complemented by lower bounds for deterministic and randomized algorithms, and computational experiments evaluating our algorithms' performance improvements.

Recent advances in photonic optimization have enabled calculation of performance bounds for a wide range of electromagnetic objectives, albeit restricted to single-material systems. Motivated by growing theoretical interest and fabrication advances, we present a framework to bound the performance of photonic heterostructures and apply it to investigate maximum absorption characteristics of multilayer films and compact, free-form multi-material scatterers. Limits predict trends seen in topology-optimized geometries -- often coming within factors of two of specific designs -- and may be exploited in conjunction with inverse designs to predict when heterostructures are expected to outperform their optimal single-material counterparts.

Different from a unimodal model whose input is from a single modality, the input (called multi-modal input) of a multi-modal model is from multiple modalities such as image, 3D points, audio, text, etc. Similar to unimodal models, many existing studies show that a multi-modal model is also vulnerable to adversarial perturbation, where an attacker could add small perturbation to all modalities of a multi-modal input such that the multi-modal model makes incorrect predictions for it. Existing certified defenses are mostly designed for unimodal models, which achieve sub-optimal certified robustness guarantees when extended to multi-modal models as shown in our experimental results. In our work, we propose MMCert, the first certified defense against adversarial attacks to a multi-modal model. We derive a lower bound on the performance of our MMCert under arbitrary adversarial attacks with bounded perturbations to both modalities (e.g., in the context of auto-driving, we bound the number of changed pixels in both RGB image and depth image). We evaluate our MMCert using two benchmark datasets: one for the multi-modal road segmentation task and the other for the multi-modal emotion recognition task. Moreover, we compare our MMCert with a state-of-the-art certified defense extended from unimodal models. Our experimental results show that our MMCert outperforms the baseline.

Generalization in Reinforcement Learning (RL) aims to learn an agent during training that generalizes to the target environment. This paper studies RL generalization from a theoretical aspect: how much can we expect pre-training over training environments to be helpful? When the interaction with the target environment is not allowed, we certify that the best we can obtain is a near-optimal policy in an average sense, and we design an algorithm that achieves this goal. Furthermore, when the agent is allowed to interact with the target environment, we give a surprising result showing that asymptotically, the improvement from pre-training is at most a constant factor. On the other hand, in the non-asymptotic regime, we design an efficient algorithm and prove a distribution-based regret bound in the target environment that is independent of the state-action space.

The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

We consider online scheduling on unrelated (heterogeneous) machines in a speed-oblivious setting, where an algorithm is unaware of the exact job-dependent processing speeds. We show strong impossibility results for clairvoyant and non-clairvoyant algorithms and overcome them in models inspired by practical settings: (i) we provide competitive learning-augmented algorithms, assuming that (possibly erroneous) predictions on the speeds are given, and (ii) we provide competitive algorithms for the speed-ordered model, where a single global order of machines according to their unknown job-dependent speeds is known. We prove strong theoretical guarantees and evaluate our findings on a representative heterogeneous multi-core processor. These seem to be the first empirical results for scheduling algorithms with predictions that are evaluated in a non-synthetic hardware environment.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

We study convergence lower bounds of without-replacement stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for solving smooth (strongly-)convex finite-sum minimization problems. Unlike most existing results focusing on final iterate lower bounds in terms of the number of components n and the number of epochs K, we seek bounds for arbitrary weighted average iterates that are tight in all factors including the condition number kappa. For SGD with Random Reshuffling, we present lower bounds that have tighter kappa dependencies than existing bounds. Our results are the first to perfectly close the gap between lower and upper bounds for weighted average iterates in both strongly-convex and convex cases. We also prove weighted average iterate lower bounds for arbitrary permutation-based SGD, which apply to all variants that carefully choose the best permutation. Our bounds improve the existing bounds in factors of n and kappa and thereby match the upper bounds shown for a recently proposed algorithm called GraB.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Evaluating generative AI models is increasingly resource-intensive due to slow inference, expensive raters, and a rapidly growing landscape of models and benchmarks. We propose ProEval, a proactive evaluation framework that leverages transfer learning to efficiently estimate performance and identify failure cases. ProEval employs pre-trained Gaussian Processes (GPs) as surrogates for the performance score function, mapping model inputs to metrics such as the severity of errors or safety violations. By framing performance estimation as Bayesian quadrature (BQ) and failure discovery as superlevel set sampling, we develop uncertainty-aware decision strategies that actively select or synthesize highly informative inputs for testing. Theoretically, we prove that our pre-trained GP-based BQ estimator is unbiased and bounded. Empirically, extensive experiments on reasoning, safety alignment, and classification benchmarks demonstrate that ProEval is significantly more efficient than competitive baselines. It requires 8-65x fewer samples to achieve estimates within 1% of the ground truth, while simultaneously revealing more diverse failure cases under a stricter evaluation budget.

Speculative decoding (SD) has become a popular technique to accelerate Large Language Model (LLM) inference, yet its real-world effectiveness remains unclear as prior evaluations rely on research prototypes and unrealistically small batch sizes. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic study of SD on a production-grade and widely deployed inference engine (vLLM), covering multiple SD variants (n-gram, EAGLE/EAGLE-3, Draft-Model, Multi-Token Prediction) across diverse workloads, model scales, and batch sizes. We analyze key factors governing SD performance, and quantify a theoretical upper bound on SD speedup. Our results show that verification by the target model dominates the execution, while acceptance length varies markedly across output token positions, requests, and datasets. Comparing measured performance with theoretical bounds reveals substantial gaps between observed and theoretical upper bounds, and we leverage this observation to highlight new research opportunities that our study opens up in improving SD.

Agentic theorem provers combine a reasoning model, retrieval, search, and a proof assistant verifier, yet it remains unclear which components actually improve finite-budget proof success and why they help on real mathematical workloads. We study this question through statistical provability: the probability of reaching a verified proof within a budget on a specified stream of theorem instances. We model formal proof search as a finite-horizon reachability MDP with deterministic verifier dynamics, and show that under a faithful state abstraction the optimal success probability coincides with ordinary syntactic provability. We then analyze a simple but practically important pipeline: depth-wise offline action-value regression followed by greedy test-time proving. Our main theorem bounds the provability gap between the learned prover and the optimal prover by an occupancy-weighted sum of uniform action-value errors; in the common uniform-error reading, the leading complexity multiplier is the learned prover's average truncated proof length. The error decomposes into approximation error, geometric coverage of the training distribution, and Monte Carlo label noise, and improves to a fast rate under an action-gap margin condition. The result gives a component-sensitive account of why verifier feedback, retrieval, representation geometry, and proof-shortening mechanisms help on biased theorem workloads, without contradicting classical worst-case hardness.

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the scalability and parallelization of local search algorithms for the Satisfiability problem. We propose a framework to estimate the parallel performance of a given algorithm by analyzing the runtime behavior of its sequential version. Indeed, by approximating the runtime distribution of the sequential process with statistical methods, the runtime behavior of the parallel process can be predicted by a model based on order statistics. We apply this approach to study the parallel performance of two SAT local search solvers, namely Sparrow and CCASAT, and compare the predicted performances to the results of an actual experimentation on parallel hardware up to 384 cores. We show that the model is accurate and predicts performance close to the empirical data. Moreover, as we study different types of instances (random and crafted), we observe that the local search solvers exhibit different behaviors and that their runtime distributions can be approximated by two types of distributions: exponential (shifted and non-shifted) and lognormal.

Network routers that enforce Quality-of-Service (QoS) guarantees must decide, at every clock cycle, which expiring packet of information to transmit, even when the value of the packet is unknown until it is processed. We frame this problem as the Online Packet Scheduling with Deadlines (OPSD) problem under Partial Feedback: packets arrive at every clock cycle, with different deadlines, but the weights are only observed after execution. Under a stochastic assumption on the unknown weights, we explore different variants of the OPSD problem with bandit feedback. We establish a connection between our setting and the sleeping bandits problem, and set our learning goal to α-regret minimization. We provide algorithms with provable α-regret guarantees under different spans of slackness, distinguishing systems allowing for randomization and systems that do not. In every scenario, our algorithms achieve an α-regret upper bound of mathcal{O}left(KTright), matching the lower bound for the standard bandit setting. In the practically relevant case of 2-bounded deadline instances, where the deadline is set at most one clock cycle away from the arrival, our deterministic algorithm achieves the provably tightest possible competitive ratio. Remarkably, when the number of distinct packet types Kge 2 is finite, it is possible to break the well-established Φ= 1+sqrt{5}{2} competitive ratio barrier and attain a tighter competitive ratio θ_K ranging in [2, Φ).

Coding-agent benchmarks have largely measured whether agents can produce functionally correct patches, but production software also demands measurable speedups on real execution targets. Performance optimization is a distinct agentic task: agents must profile executions, diagnose cross-layer bottlenecks, edit code without breaking correctness, and verify that gains are reproducible rather than measurement artifacts. We introduce PERFOPT-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating this full performance-engineering loop. Each task provides a correct but deliberately suboptimal codebase and asks the agent to improve a target performance metric; scoring requires hidden correctness tests, verified-speedup measurement, and trajectory-level audit. We evaluate 7 agent stacks with different LLMs and agent frameworks on 7 long-horizon optimization tasks. The results show that optimization performance is workload-dependent rather than determined by model identity alone: no single stack dominates, and changing the agent framework can materially change the same LLM's per-task speedup profile. We further find that raw speedup is unsafe as a benchmark score, since some large gains arise from benchmark-specific shortcut exploitation; an exploratory relay pilot suggests that restarting from an externalized optimization summary can recover additional headroom after an initial session stops. The benchmark and our evaluation are available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Dataset-D3CC.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Recent work has shown that it is possible to train deep neural networks that are provably robust to norm-bounded adversarial perturbations. Most of these methods are based on minimizing an upper bound on the worst-case loss over all possible adversarial perturbations. While these techniques show promise, they often result in difficult optimization procedures that remain hard to scale to larger networks. Through a comprehensive analysis, we show how a simple bounding technique, interval bound propagation (IBP), can be exploited to train large provably robust neural networks that beat the state-of-the-art in verified accuracy. While the upper bound computed by IBP can be quite weak for general networks, we demonstrate that an appropriate loss and clever hyper-parameter schedule allow the network to adapt such that the IBP bound is tight. This results in a fast and stable learning algorithm that outperforms more sophisticated methods and achieves state-of-the-art results on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and SVHN. It also allows us to train the largest model to be verified beyond vacuous bounds on a downscaled version of ImageNet.

This work proposes a novel framework based on nested evolving set processes to accelerate Personalized PageRank (PPR) computation. At each stage of the process, we employ a localized inexact proximal point iteration to solve a simplified linear system. We show that the time complexity of such localized methods is upper bounded by min{mathcal{O}(R^2/ε^2), mathcal{O}(m)} to obtain an ε-approximation of the PPR vector, where m denotes the number of edges in the graph and R is a constant defined via nested evolving set processes. Furthermore, the algorithms induced by our framework require solving only mathcal{O}(1/sqrtα) such linear systems, where α is the damping factor. When 1/ε^2ll m, this implies the existence of an algorithm that computes an epsilon -approximation of the PPR vector with an overall time complexity of mathcal{O}left(R^2 / (sqrtαε^2)right), independent of the underlying graph size. Our result resolves an open conjecture from existing literature. Experimental results on real-world graphs validate the efficiency of our methods, demonstrating significant convergence in the early stages.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have benefited enormously from scaling, yet these gains are bounded by five fundamental limitations: (1) hallucination, (2) context compression, (3) reasoning degradation, (4) retrieval fragility, and (5) multimodal misalignment. While existing surveys describe these phenomena empirically, they lack a rigorous theoretical synthesis connecting them to the foundational limits of computation, information, and learning. This work closes that gap by presenting a unified, proof-informed framework that formalizes the innate theoretical ceilings of LLM scaling. First, computability and uncomputability imply an irreducible residue of error: for any computably enumerable model family, diagonalization guarantees inputs on which some model must fail, and undecidable queries (e.g., halting-style tasks) induce infinite failure sets for all computable predictors. Second, information-theoretic and statistical constraints bound attainable accuracy even on decidable tasks, finite description length enforces compression error, and long-tail factual knowledge requires prohibitive sample complexity. Third, geometric and computational effects compress long contexts far below their nominal size due to positional under-training, encoding attenuation, and softmax crowding. We further show how likelihood-based training favors pattern completion over inference, how retrieval under token limits suffers from semantic drift and coupling noise, and how multimodal scaling inherits shallow cross-modal alignment. Across sections, we pair theorems and empirical evidence to outline where scaling helps, where it saturates, and where it cannot progress, providing both theoretical foundations and practical mitigation paths like bounded-oracle retrieval, positional curricula, and sparse or hierarchical attention.

We consider the problem of online preemptive scheduling on a single machine to minimize the total flow time. In clairvoyant scheduling, where job processing times are revealed upon arrival, the Shortest Remaining Processing Time (SRPT) algorithm is optimal. In practice, however, exact processing times are often unknown. At the opposite extreme, non-clairvoyant scheduling, in which processing times are revealed only upon completion, suffers from strong lower bounds on the competitive ratio. This motivates the study of intermediate information models. We introduce a new model in which processing times are revealed gradually during execution. Each job consists of a sequence of operations, and the processing time of an operation becomes known only after the preceding one completes. This models many scheduling scenarios that arise in computing systems. Our main result is a deterministic O(m^2)-competitive algorithm, where m is the maximum number of operations per job. More specifically, we prove a refined competitive ratio in O(m_1 cdot m_2), where m_1 and m_2 are instance-dependent parameters describing the operation size structure. Our algorithm and analysis build on recent advancements in robust flow time minimization (SODA '26), where jobs arrive with estimated sizes. However, in our setting we have no bounded estimate on a job's processing time. Thus, we design a highly adaptive algorithm that gradually explores a job's operations while working on them, and groups them into virtual chunks whose size can be well-estimated. This is a crucial ingredient of our result and requires a much more careful analysis compared to the robust setting. We also provide lower bounds showing that our bounds are essentially best possible. For the special case of scheduling with uniform obligatory tests, we show that SRPT at the operation level is 2-competitive, which is best possible.

Optimizing the performance of large-scale software repositories demands expertise in code reasoning and software engineering (SWE) to reduce runtime while preserving program correctness. However, most benchmarks emphasize what to fix rather than how to fix code. We introduce SWE-fficiency, a benchmark for evaluating repository-level performance optimization on real workloads. Our suite contains 498 tasks across nine widely used data-science, machine-learning, and HPC repositories (e.g., numpy, pandas, scipy): given a complete codebase and a slow workload, an agent must investigate code semantics, localize bottlenecks and relevant tests, and produce a patch that matches or exceeds expert speedup while passing the same unit tests. To enable this how-to-fix evaluation, our automated pipeline scrapes GitHub pull requests for performance-improving edits, combining keyword filtering, static analysis, coverage tooling, and execution validation to both confirm expert speedup baselines and identify relevant repository unit tests. Empirical evaluation of state-of-the-art agents reveals significant underperformance. On average, agents achieve less than 0.15x the expert speedup: agents struggle in localizing optimization opportunities, reasoning about execution across functions, and maintaining correctness in proposed edits. We release the benchmark and accompanying data pipeline to facilitate research on automated performance engineering and long-horizon software reasoning.

We study the accuracy of differentially private mechanisms in the continual release model. A continual release mechanism receives a sensitive dataset as a stream of T inputs and produces, after receiving each input, an accurate output on the obtained inputs. In contrast, a batch algorithm receives the data as one batch and produces a single output. We provide the first strong lower bounds on the error of continual release mechanisms. In particular, for two fundamental problems that are widely studied and used in the batch model, we show that the worst case error of every continual release algorithm is tilde Omega(T^{1/3}) times larger than that of the best batch algorithm. Previous work shows only a polylogarithimic (in T) gap between the worst case error achievable in these two models; further, for many problems, including the summation of binary attributes, the polylogarithmic gap is tight (Dwork et al., 2010; Chan et al., 2010). Our results show that problems closely related to summation -- specifically, those that require selecting the largest of a set of sums -- are fundamentally harder in the continual release model than in the batch model. Our lower bounds assume only that privacy holds for streams fixed in advance (the "nonadaptive" setting). However, we provide matching upper bounds that hold in a model where privacy is required even for adaptively selected streams. This model may be of independent interest.

Learning-augmented paging has been extensively studied in recent years. A key advantage over naive ML-based approaches is bounded robustness, which guarantees worst-case performance even when predictions are inaccurate, making these algorithms valuable for real-world systems. Prior work achieves robustness bounds of 2H_k + O(1) in the randomized setting, leaving a gap to the optimal competitive ratio H_k. In this paper, we study how to close this gap. We begin by reviewing online optimality and proving a new property of the latest H_k-competitive algorithm, which facilitates our analysis in the learning-augmented setting. Then, we review existing learning-augmented paging algorithms and introduce a unifying primitive, the relative prediction budget, which captures the essence of establishing robustness and reveals that prior algorithms either overuse or underutilize predictions. Guided by the above analysis, we develop a new framework that achieves the best-possible robustness up to an additive constant for learning-augmented paging: H_k + O(1). Experiments further demonstrate strong practical performance.

How fast could a deep-learning model run on target hardware, and how far is today's implementation from that limit? These questions are central to software, hardware, and algorithm optimizations. Speed-of-Light (SOL) analysis answers them by computing a workload's theoretical minimum execution time on a given architecture. Yet deriving SOL bounds remains manual, error-prone, and disconnected from rapid model development. To close this gap, we introduce SOLAR, a framework that automatically derives validated SOL bounds from PyTorch and JAX source code. SOLAR leverages both generative and deterministic components in its flow: an LLM frontend translates any source programs into an executable Affine Loop IR, validated by output comparison; a deterministic flow lifts the IR into an einsum graph; and an analytical backend computes unfused, fused, and cache-aware SOL bounds. SOLAR provides comprehensive operator and language coverage, produces validated bounds with zero observed SOL violations, and offers multi-fidelity analysis that tightens bounds and surfaces optimization insights. We evaluate SOLAR across KernelBench, JAX/Flax models, and robotics workloads. These experiments demonstrate four use cases: headroom analysis at multiple fidelity levels, identifying optimization opportunities, cross-platform exploration, and inverse-roofline hardware provisioning.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Recent advances in formal theorem proving have focused on Olympiad-level mathematics, leaving undergraduate domains largely unexplored. Optimization, fundamental to machine learning, operations research, and scientific computing, remains underserved by existing provers. Its reliance on domain-specific formalisms (convexity, optimality conditions, and algorithmic analysis) creates significant distribution shift, making naive domain transfer ineffective. We present OptProver, a trained model that achieves robust transfer from Olympiad to undergraduate optimization. Starting from a strong Olympiad-level prover, our pipeline mitigates distribution shift through two key innovations. First, we employ large-scale optimization-focused data curation via expert iteration. Second, we introduce a specialized preference learning objective that integrates perplexity-weighted optimization with a mechanism to penalize valid but non-progressing proof steps. This not only addresses distribution shifts but also guides the search toward efficient trajectories. To enable rigorous evaluation, we construct a novel benchmark in Lean 4 focused on optimization. On this benchmark, OptProver achieves state-of-the-art Pass@1 and Pass@32 among comparably sized models while maintaining competitive performance on general theorem-proving tasks, demonstrating effective domain transfer without catastrophic forgetting.

We study the computational complexity of approximating general constrained Markov decision processes. Our primary contribution is the design of a polynomial time (0,ε)-additive bicriteria approximation algorithm for finding optimal constrained policies across a broad class of recursively computable constraints, including almost-sure, chance, expectation, and their anytime variants. Matching lower bounds imply our approximation guarantees are optimal so long as P neq NP. The generality of our approach results in answers to several long-standing open complexity questions in the constrained reinforcement learning literature. Specifically, we are the first to prove polynomial-time approximability for the following settings: policies under chance constraints, deterministic policies under multiple expectation constraints, policies under non-homogeneous constraints (i.e., constraints of different types), and policies under constraints for continuous-state processes.

Inference-time scaling via chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is a major driver of state-of-the-art LLM performance, but it comes with substantial latency and compute costs. We address a fundamental theoretical question: how many reasoning tokens are required to solve a problem as input size grows? By extending the bounded attention prefix oracle (BAPO) model--an abstraction of LLMs that quantifies the information flow required to solve a task--we prove lower bounds on the CoT tokens required for three canonical BAPO-hard tasks: binary majority, triplet matching, and graph reachability. We show that each requires Ω(n) reasoning tokens when the input size is n. We complement these results with matching or near-matching upper bounds via explicit constructions. Finally, our experiments with frontier reasoning models show approximately linear reasoning token scaling on these tasks and failures when constrained to smaller reasoning budgets, consistent with our theoretical lower bounds. Together, our results identify fundamental bottlenecks in inference-time compute through CoT and offer a principled tool for analyzing optimal reasoning length.

Machine learning models trained with differentially-private (DP) algorithms such as DP-SGD enjoy resilience against a wide range of privacy attacks. Although it is possible to derive bounds for some attacks based solely on an (varepsilon,delta)-DP guarantee, meaningful bounds require a small enough privacy budget (i.e., injecting a large amount of noise), which results in a large loss in utility. This paper presents a new approach to evaluate the privacy of machine learning models against specific record-level threats, such as membership and attribute inference, without the indirection through DP. We focus on the popular DP-SGD algorithm, and derive simple closed-form bounds. Our proofs model DP-SGD as an information theoretic channel whose inputs are the secrets that an attacker wants to infer (e.g., membership of a data record) and whose outputs are the intermediate model parameters produced by iterative optimization. We obtain bounds for membership inference that match state-of-the-art techniques, whilst being orders of magnitude faster to compute. Additionally, we present a novel data-dependent bound against attribute inference. Our results provide a direct, interpretable, and practical way to evaluate the privacy of trained models against specific inference threats without sacrificing utility.

Code performance optimization is paramount in real-world software engineering and critical for production-level systems. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in code generation and bug fixing, their proficiency in enhancing code performance at the repository level remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce SWE-Perf, the first benchmark specifically designed to systematically evaluate LLMs on code performance optimization tasks within authentic repository contexts. SWE-Perf comprises 140 carefully curated instances, each derived from performance-improving pull requests from popular GitHub repositories. Each benchmark instance includes the relevant codebase, target functions, performance-related tests, expert-authored patches, and executable environments. Through a comprehensive evaluation of representative methods that span file-level and repo-level approaches (e.g., Agentless and OpenHands), we reveal a substantial capability gap between existing LLMs and expert-level optimization performance, highlighting critical research opportunities in this emerging field.

Given the damping factor α and precision tolerance ε, andersen2006local introduced Approximate Personalized PageRank (APPR), the de facto local method for approximating the PPR vector, with runtime bounded by Θ(1/(αε)) independent of the graph size. Recently, fountoulakis2022open asked whether faster local algorithms could be developed using O(1/(sqrtαε)) operations. By noticing that APPR is a local variant of Gauss-Seidel, this paper explores the question of whether standard iterative solvers can be effectively localized. We propose to use the locally evolving set process, a novel framework to characterize the algorithm locality, and demonstrate that many standard solvers can be effectively localized. Let operatorname{vol}{ (S_t)} and overlineγ_{t} be the running average of volume and the residual ratio of active nodes textstyle S_{t} during the process. We show operatorname{vol}{ (S_t)}/overlineγ_{t} leq 1/ε and prove APPR admits a new runtime bound O(operatorname{vol}(S_t)/(αoverlineγ_{t})) mirroring the actual performance. Furthermore, when the geometric mean of residual reduction is Θ(sqrtα), then there exists c in (0,2) such that the local Chebyshev method has runtime O(operatorname{vol}(S_{t})/(sqrtα(2-c))) without the monotonicity assumption. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of this novel framework and show up to a hundredfold speedup over corresponding standard solvers on real-world graphs.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have exhibited the capacity of enhancing reasoning performance via internal test-time scaling. Building upon this, a promising direction is to further scale test-time compute to unlock even greater reasoning capabilities. However, as we push these scaling boundaries, systematically understanding the practical limits and achieving optimal resource allocation becomes a critical challenge. In this paper, we investigate the scaling Pareto of test-time scaling and introduce the Test-Time Scaling Performance Model (TTSPM). We theoretically analyze two fundamental paradigms for such extended scaling, parallel scaling and sequential scaling, from a probabilistic modeling perspective. Our primary contribution is the derivation of the saturation point on the scaling budget for both strategies, identifying thresholds beyond which additional computation yields diminishing returns. Remarkably, despite their distinct mechanisms, both paradigms converge to a unified mathematical structure in their upper bounds. We empirically validate our theoretical findings on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA, demonstrating the practical utility of these bounds for test-time resource allocation. We hope that this work provides insights into the cost-benefit trade-offs of test-time scaling, guiding the development of more resource-efficient inference strategies for large reasoning models.

This paper introduces bucket calculus, a novel mathematical framework that fundamentally transforms the computational complexity landscape of parallel machine scheduling optimization. We address the strongly NP-hard problem P2|r_j|C_{max} through an innovative adaptive temporal discretization methodology that achieves exponential complexity reduction from O(T^n) to O(B^n) where B ll T, while maintaining near-optimal solution quality. Our bucket-indexed mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation exploits dimensional complexity heterogeneity through precision-aware discretization, reducing decision variables by 94.4\% and achieving a theoretical speedup factor 2.75 times 10^{37} for 20-job instances. Theoretical contributions include partial discretization theory, fractional bucket calculus operators, and quantum-inspired mechanisms for temporal constraint modeling. Empirical validation on instances with 20--400 jobs demonstrates 97.6\% resource utilization, near-perfect load balancing (σ/μ= 0.006), and sustained performance across problem scales with optimality gaps below 5.1\%. This work represents a paradigm shift from fine-grained temporal discretization to multi-resolution precision allocation, bridging the fundamental gap between exact optimization and computational tractability for industrial-scale NP-hard scheduling problems.

Balancing performance and efficiency is a central challenge in large language model (LLM) advancement. GPT-5 addresses this with test-time routing, dynamically assigning queries to either an efficient or a high-capacity model during inference. In this work, we present Avengers-Pro, a test-time routing framework that ensembles LLMs of varying capacities and efficiencies, providing a unified solution for all performance-efficiency tradeoffs. The Avengers-Pro embeds and clusters incoming queries, then routes each to the most suitable model based on a performance-efficiency score. Across 6 challenging benchmarks and 8 leading models -- including GPT-5-medium, Gemini-2.5-pro, and Claude-opus-4.1 -- Avengers-Pro achieves state-of-the-art results: by varying a performance-efficiency trade-off parameter, it can surpass the strongest single model (GPT-5-medium) by +7% in average accuracy. Moreover, it can match the average accuracy of the strongest single model at 27% lower cost, and reach ~90% of that performance at 63% lower cost. Last but not least, it achieves a Pareto frontier, consistently yielding the highest accuracy for any given cost, and the lowest cost for any given accuracy, among all single models. Code is available at https://github.com/ZhangYiqun018/AvengersPro.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

We revisit the I/O complexity of attention in large language models. Given query-key-value matrices Q,K,VinR^{ntimes d}, and a machine with fast memory size M, the goal is to compute the "attention matrix" A=softmax(Q K ^{top}/d) V with the minimal number of data transfers between fast and slow memory. Existing methods in the literature, most notably FlashAttention and its variants, incur an I/O cost that depends quadratically on n, while a trivial lower bound only requires Ω(nd) I/O's to read the inputs and write the output. In this work, we present a technique for computing attention where the I/O cost only depends almost-linearly on n in most parameter regimes. This is achieved by developing I/O-efficient algorithms inspired by the recent approximate attention framework of Alman and Song. We also prove corresponding lower bounds in each parameter regime to show that our algorithms are indeed close to I/O-optimal.

We present CRUXEval (Code Reasoning, Understanding, and eXecution Evaluation), a benchmark consisting of 800 Python functions (3-13 lines). Each function comes with an input-output pair, leading to two natural tasks: input prediction and output prediction. First, we propose a generic recipe for generating our execution benchmark which can be used to create future variation of the benchmark. Second, we evaluate twenty code models on our benchmark and discover that many recent high-scoring models on HumanEval do not show the same improvements on our benchmark. Third, we show that simple CoT and fine-tuning schemes can improve performance on our benchmark but remain far from solving it. The best setup, GPT-4 with chain of thought (CoT), achieves a pass@1 of 75% and 81% on input and output prediction, respectively. In contrast, Code Llama 34B achieves a pass@1 of 50% and 46% on input and output prediction, highlighting the gap between open and closed source models. As no model is close to acing CRUXEval, we provide examples of consistent GPT-4 failures on simple programs as a lens into its code reasoning capabilities and areas for improvement.

Recent advances in probabilistic modelling have led to a large number of simulation-based inference algorithms which do not require numerical evaluation of likelihoods. However, a public benchmark with appropriate performance metrics for such 'likelihood-free' algorithms has been lacking. This has made it difficult to compare algorithms and identify their strengths and weaknesses. We set out to fill this gap: We provide a benchmark with inference tasks and suitable performance metrics, with an initial selection of algorithms including recent approaches employing neural networks and classical Approximate Bayesian Computation methods. We found that the choice of performance metric is critical, that even state-of-the-art algorithms have substantial room for improvement, and that sequential estimation improves sample efficiency. Neural network-based approaches generally exhibit better performance, but there is no uniformly best algorithm. We provide practical advice and highlight the potential of the benchmark to diagnose problems and improve algorithms. The results can be explored interactively on a companion website. All code is open source, making it possible to contribute further benchmark tasks and inference algorithms.

Modern language models can contain billions of parameters, raising the question of whether they can generalize beyond the training data or simply regurgitate their training corpora. We provide the first non-vacuous generalization bounds for pretrained large language models (LLMs), indicating that language models are capable of discovering regularities that generalize to unseen data. In particular, we derive a compression bound that is valid for the unbounded log-likelihood loss using prediction smoothing, and we extend the bound to handle subsampling, accelerating bound computation on massive datasets. To achieve the extreme level of compression required for non-vacuous generalization bounds, we devise SubLoRA, a low-dimensional non-linear parameterization. Using this approach, we find that larger models have better generalization bounds and are more compressible than smaller models.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in automatic code generation, yet their ability to produce high-performance code remains limited--a critical requirement in real-world software systems. We argue that current LLMs struggle not only due to data scarcity but, more importantly, because they lack supervision that guides interpretable and effective performance improvements. In this work, we introduce PerfCoder, a family of LLMs specifically designed to generate performance-enhanced code from source code via interpretable, customized optimizations. PerfCoder is fine-tuned on a curated collection of real-world optimization trajectories with human-readable annotations, and preference-aligned by reinforcement fine-tuning using runtime measurements, enabling it to propose input-specific improvement strategies and apply them directly without relying on iterative refinement. On the PIE code performance benchmark, PerfCoder surpasses all existing models in both runtime speedup and effective optimization rate, demonstrating that performance optimization cannot be achieved by scale alone but requires optimization stratetgy awareness. In addition, PerfCoder can generate interpretable feedback about the source code, which, when provided as input to a larger LLM in a planner-and-optimizer cooperative workflow, can further improve outcomes. Specifically, we elevate the performance of 32B models and GPT-5 to new levels on code optimization, substantially surpassing their original performance.

We improve the efficiency of algorithms for stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits. In most interesting problems, state-of-the-art algorithms take advantage of structural properties of rewards, such as independence. However, while being optimal in terms of asymptotic regret, these algorithms are inefficient. In our paper, we first reduce their implementation to a specific submodular maximization. Then, in case of matroid constraints, we design adapted approximation routines, thereby providing the first efficient algorithms that rely on reward structure to improve regret bound. In particular, we improve the state-of-the-art efficient gap-free regret bound by a factor m/log m, where m is the maximum action size. Finally, we show how our improvement translates to more general budgeted combinatorial semi-bandits.

We study one-sided and α-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic, finite-state Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set P of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set Q. We establish a non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative, which is asymptotically tight. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as αto 0. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing approaches often rely on heuristic strategies for parallel sampling, lacking a principled foundation. To address this gap, we propose a probabilistic framework that formalizes the optimality of inference-time scaling under the assumption that parallel samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.), and where the Best-of-N selection strategy follows a probability distribution that can be estimated. Within this framework, we derive a theoretical lower bound on the required number of samples to achieve a target performance level, providing the first principled guidance for compute-efficient scaling. Leveraging this insight, we develop OptScale, a practical algorithm that dynamically determines the optimal number of sampled responses. OptScale employs a language model-based predictor to estimate probabilistic prior parameters, enabling the decision of the minimal number of samples needed that satisfy predefined performance thresholds and confidence levels. Extensive experiments on representative reasoning benchmarks (including MATH-500, GSM8K, AIME, and AMC) demonstrate that OptScale significantly reduces sampling overhead while remaining better or on par with state-of-the-art reasoning performance. Our work offers both a theoretical foundation and a practical solution for principled inference-time scaling, addressing a critical gap in the efficient deployment of LLMs for complex reasoning.

The use of quantum computing for machine learning is among the most exciting prospective applications of quantum technologies. However, machine learning tasks where data is provided can be considerably different than commonly studied computational tasks. In this work, we show that some problems that are classically hard to compute can be easily predicted by classical machines learning from data. Using rigorous prediction error bounds as a foundation, we develop a methodology for assessing potential quantum advantage in learning tasks. The bounds are tight asymptotically and empirically predictive for a wide range of learning models. These constructions explain numerical results showing that with the help of data, classical machine learning models can be competitive with quantum models even if they are tailored to quantum problems. We then propose a projected quantum model that provides a simple and rigorous quantum speed-up for a learning problem in the fault-tolerant regime. For near-term implementations, we demonstrate a significant prediction advantage over some classical models on engineered data sets designed to demonstrate a maximal quantum advantage in one of the largest numerical tests for gate-based quantum machine learning to date, up to 30 qubits.

Recent reports claim that large language models (LLMs) now outperform elite humans in competitive programming. Drawing on knowledge from a group of medalists in international algorithmic contests, we revisit this claim, examining how LLMs differ from human experts and where limitations still remain. We introduce LiveCodeBench Pro, a benchmark composed of problems from Codeforces, ICPC, and IOI that are continuously updated to reduce the likelihood of data contamination. A team of Olympiad medalists annotates every problem for algorithmic categories and conducts a line-by-line analysis of failed model-generated submissions. Using this new data and benchmark, we find that frontier models still have significant limitations: without external tools, the best model achieves only 53% pass@1 on medium-difficulty problems and 0% on hard problems, domains where expert humans still excel. We also find that LLMs succeed at implementation-heavy problems but struggle with nuanced algorithmic reasoning and complex case analysis, often generating confidently incorrect justifications. High performance appears largely driven by implementation precision and tool augmentation, not superior reasoning. LiveCodeBench Pro thus highlights the significant gap to human grandmaster levels, while offering fine-grained diagnostics to steer future improvements in code-centric LLM reasoning.

Motivated by the need to efficiently identify multiple candidates in high trial-and-error cost tasks such as drug discovery, we propose a near-optimal algorithm to identify all ε-best arms (i.e., those at most ε worse than the optimum). Specifically, we introduce LinFACT, an algorithm designed to optimize the identification of all ε-best arms in linear bandits. We establish a novel information-theoretic lower bound on the sample complexity of this problem and demonstrate that LinFACT achieves instance optimality by matching this lower bound up to a logarithmic factor. A key ingredient of our proof is to integrate the lower bound directly into the scaling process for upper bound derivation, determining the termination round and thus the sample complexity. We also extend our analysis to settings with model misspecification and generalized linear models. Numerical experiments, including synthetic and real drug discovery data, demonstrate that LinFACT identifies more promising candidates with reduced sample complexity, offering significant computational efficiency and accelerating early-stage exploratory experiments.

Algorithms for min-max optimization and variational inequalities are often studied under monotonicity assumptions. Motivated by non-monotone machine learning applications, we follow the line of works [Diakonikolas et al., 2021, Lee and Kim, 2021, Pethick et al., 2022, B\"ohm, 2022] aiming at going beyond monotonicity by considering the weaker negative comonotonicity assumption. In particular, we provide tight complexity analyses for the Proximal Point, Extragradient, and Optimistic Gradient methods in this setup, closing some questions on their working guarantees beyond monotonicity.

LLM agents increasingly rely on retrieval buffers to store and reuse past experience, yet the cache management policies governing these buffers remain largely ad-hoc. We formalize this as an online semantic cache replacement problem with switching costs, where items are matched by embedding similarity and hit quality is continuous rather than binary. Through experiments on two datasets from MemoryBench-Full (LoCoMo, DialSim) with 8 replacement policies, we reveal a surprising finding: classic heuristics (LRU, LFU) consistently underperform the naive FIFO baseline on semantic workloads, due to the absence of temporal locality and frequency concentration. We propose SOLAR, a learning-augmented framework that derives modification timing from regret accumulation (achieving sim17\% modification rate) and content selection from Bayesian online learning over implicit retrieval feedback. We prove SOLAR achieves a constant competitive ratio leq 3, independent of cache size and horizon (vs.\ Ω(K) for FIFO), and eviction regret O(KTlog T), matching the Ω(KT) lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments demonstrate 5--75\% relative improvement over FIFO at tight cache sizes, with a clearly characterized phase transition at the working set boundary. Synthetic experiments with 5000-item pools further reveal an inverted-U relationship between pool size and retrieval quality, justifying capacity constraints as a retrieval noise phenomenon rather than a storage limitation.

We show the existence of a Locality-Sensitive Hashing (LSH) family for the angular distance that yields an approximate Near Neighbor Search algorithm with the asymptotically optimal running time exponent. Unlike earlier algorithms with this property (e.g., Spherical LSH [Andoni, Indyk, Nguyen, Razenshteyn 2014], [Andoni, Razenshteyn 2015]), our algorithm is also practical, improving upon the well-studied hyperplane LSH [Charikar, 2002] in practice. We also introduce a multiprobe version of this algorithm, and conduct experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data sets. We complement the above positive results with a fine-grained lower bound for the quality of any LSH family for angular distance. Our lower bound implies that the above LSH family exhibits a trade-off between evaluation time and quality that is close to optimal for a natural class of LSH functions.

With the advent of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3, a natural question is the extent to which these models can be utilized for source code optimization. This paper presents methodologically stringent case studies applied to well-known open source python libraries pillow and numpy. We find that contemporary LLM ChatGPT-4 (state September and October 2023) is surprisingly adept at optimizing energy and compute efficiency. However, this is only the case in interactive use, with a human expert in the loop. Aware of experimenter bias, we document our qualitative approach in detail, and provide transcript and source code. We start by providing a detailed description of our approach in conversing with the LLM to optimize the _getextrema function in the pillow library, and a quantitative evaluation of the performance improvement. To demonstrate qualitative replicability, we report further attempts on another locus in the pillow library, and one code locus in the numpy library, to demonstrate generalization within and beyond a library. In all attempts, the performance improvement is significant (factor up to 38). We have also not omitted reporting of failed attempts (there were none). We conclude that LLMs are a promising tool for code optimization in open source libraries, but that the human expert in the loop is essential for success. Nonetheless, we were surprised by how few iterations were required to achieve substantial performance improvements that were not obvious to the expert in the loop. We would like bring attention to the qualitative nature of this study, more robust quantitative studies would need to introduce a layer of selecting experts in a representative sample -- we invite the community to collaborate.

We study single-machine scheduling of jobs, each belonging to a job type that determines its duration distribution. We start by analyzing the scenario where the type characteristics are known and then move to two learning scenarios where the types are unknown: non-preemptive problems, where each started job must be completed before moving to another job; and preemptive problems, where job execution can be paused in the favor of moving to a different job. In both cases, we design algorithms that achieve sublinear excess cost, compared to the performance with known types, and prove lower bounds for the non-preemptive case. Notably, we demonstrate, both theoretically and through simulations, how preemptive algorithms can greatly outperform non-preemptive ones when the durations of different job types are far from one another, a phenomenon that does not occur when the type durations are known.

Although upper bound guarantees for bilevel optimization have been widely studied, progress on lower bounds has been limited due to the complexity of the bilevel structure. In this work, we focus on the smooth nonconvex-strongly-convex setting and develop new hard instances that yield nontrivial lower bounds under deterministic and stochastic first-order oracle models. In the deterministic case, we prove that any first-order zero-respecting algorithm requires at least Ω(κ^{3/2}ε^{-2}) oracle calls to find an ε-accurate stationary point, improving the optimal lower bounds known for single-level nonconvex optimization and for nonconvex-strongly-convex min-max problems. In the stochastic case, we show that at least Ω(κ^{5/2}ε^{-4}) stochastic oracle calls are necessary, again strengthening the best known bounds in related settings. Our results expose substantial gaps between current upper and lower bounds for bilevel optimization and suggest that even simplified regimes, such as those with quadratic lower-level objectives, warrant further investigation toward understanding the optimal complexity of bilevel optimization under standard first-order oracles.

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

We propose a general two-stage algorithm that enjoys a provable scaling law for the test-time compute of large language models (LLMs). Given an input problem, the proposed algorithm first generates N candidate solutions, and then chooses the best one via a multiple-round knockout tournament where each pair of candidates are compared for K times and only the winners move on to the next round. In a minimalistic implementation, both stages can be executed with a black-box LLM alone and nothing else (e.g., no external verifier or reward model), and a total of N times (K + 1) highly parallelizable LLM calls are needed for solving an input problem. Assuming that a generated candidate solution is correct with probability p_{gen} > 0 and a comparison between a pair of correct and incorrect solutions identifies the right winner with probability p_{comp} > 0.5 (i.e., better than a random guess), we prove theoretically that the failure probability of the proposed algorithm decays to zero exponentially with respect to N and K: $P(final output is incorrect) le (1 - p_{gen})^N + lceil log_2 N rceil e^{-2 K (p_{comp} - 0.5)^2}.$ Our empirical results with the challenging MMLU-Pro benchmark validate the technical assumptions, as well as the efficacy of the proposed algorithm and the gains from scaling up its test-time compute.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as an effective strategy for improving the performance of large language models. However, existing methods typically allocate compute uniformly across all queries, overlooking variation in query difficulty. To address this inefficiency, we formulate test-time compute allocation as a novel bandit learning problem and propose adaptive algorithms that estimate query difficulty on the fly and allocate compute accordingly. Compared to uniform allocation, our algorithms allocate more compute to challenging queries while maintaining accuracy on easier ones. Among challenging queries, our algorithms further learn to prioritize solvable instances, effectively reducing excessive computing on unsolvable queries. We theoretically prove that our algorithms achieve better compute efficiency than uniform allocation and empirically validate their effectiveness on math and code benchmarks. Specifically, our algorithms achieve up to an 11.10% performance improvement (15.04% relative) on the MATH-500 dataset and up to a 7.41% performance improvement (14.40% relative) on LiveCodeBench.

We consider the block coordinate descent methods of Gauss-Seidel type with proximal regularization (BCD-PR), which is a classical method of minimizing general nonconvex objectives under constraints that has a wide range of practical applications. We theoretically establish the worst-case complexity bound for this algorithm. Namely, we show that for general nonconvex smooth objectives with block-wise constraints, the classical BCD-PR algorithm converges to an epsilon-stationary point within O(1/epsilon) iterations. Under a mild condition, this result still holds even if the algorithm is executed inexactly in each step. As an application, we propose a provable and efficient algorithm for `Wasserstein CP-dictionary learning', which seeks a set of elementary probability distributions that can well-approximate a given set of d-dimensional joint probability distributions. Our algorithm is a version of BCD-PR that operates in the dual space, where the primal problem is regularized both entropically and proximally.

We study the problem of constrained efficient global optimization, where both the objective and constraints are expensive black-box functions that can be learned with Gaussian processes. We propose CONFIG (CONstrained efFIcient Global Optimization), a simple and effective algorithm to solve it. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that our algorithm enjoys the same cumulative regret bound as that in the unconstrained case and similar cumulative constraint violation upper bounds. For commonly used Matern and Squared Exponential kernels, our bounds are sublinear and allow us to derive a convergence rate to the optimal solution of the original constrained problem. In addition, our method naturally provides a scheme to declare infeasibility when the original black-box optimization problem is infeasible. Numerical experiments on sampled instances from the Gaussian process, artificial numerical problems, and a black-box building controller tuning problem all demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm. Compared to the other state-of-the-art methods, our algorithm significantly improves the theoretical guarantees, while achieving competitive empirical performance.

Large language models (LLMs) power many state-of-the-art systems in natural language processing. However, these models are extremely computationally expensive, even at inference time, raising the natural question: when is the extra cost of deploying a larger model worth the anticipated boost in capabilities? Better understanding this tradeoff fundamentally could benefit from an inference efficiency metric that is both (i) easily comparable across models from different providers, and (ii) representative of the true cost of running queries in an isolated performance environment. Unfortunately, access to LLMs today is largely restricted to black-box text generation APIs and raw runtimes measured through this interface do not satisfy these desiderata: model providers can apply various software and hardware optimizations orthogonal to the model, and models served on shared infrastructure are susceptible to performance contention. To circumvent these problems, we propose a new metric for comparing inference efficiency across models. This metric puts models on equal footing as though they were served (i) on uniform hardware and software, and (ii) without performance contention. We call this metric the idealized runtime, and we propose a methodology to efficiently estimate this metric for autoregressive Transformer models. We also propose cost-aware variants that incorporate the number of accelerators needed to serve the model. Using these metrics, we compare ten state-of-the-art LLMs to provide the first analysis of inference efficiency-capability tradeoffs; we make several observations from this analysis, including the fact that the superior inference runtime performance of certain APIs is often a byproduct of optimizations within the API rather than the underlying model. Our methodology also facilitates the efficient comparison of different software and hardware stacks.

Text-to-optimization requires two separable capabilities: modeling -- choosing the right optimization structure -- and binding -- grounding every coefficient, index, and parameter in the concrete problem data. We study this via Text2Opt-Bench, a scalable benchmark of solver-verified optimization problems spanning 12 categories, from textbook linear programs to stochastic and multi-objective formulations with up to thousands of variables. Across 10+ models, we find that accuracy collapses as instance data grows, even when the formulation itself is simple. We call this the effective binding limit. We address this via a simple inference-time approach, BIND, which externalizes numeric data to structured files so the model binds data programmatically rather than transcribing from the prompt. BIND improves GPT-5-Nano from 59.1% to 82.4% accuracy, matching pass@5 (82.0%) at lower token cost than pass@1, and GPT-5 from 86.2% to 95.8%. Furthermore, we validate our hypothesis by finetuning a model exclusively on binding and show that it outperforms end-to-end SFT and RL across three structurally distinct optimization categories, with a 1.5B binding specialist alone matching a 7B end-to-end baseline.

Existing evaluation methods largely rely on clean, static benchmarks, which can overestimate true model performance by failing to capture the noise and variability inherent in real-world user inputs. This is especially true for language models, which can face human-generated text queries containing mistakes, typos, or alternative ways of phrasing the same question. In this work, we introduce a theoretical framework for quantifying model sensitivity to prompt variants, or brittleness, that can enable us to disentangle data-induced difficulty from prompt-related variability. Using this framework, we design a novel evaluation pipeline, Brittlebench, to holistically evaluate the sensitivity of frontier models. We apply semantics-preserving perturbations to a suite of popular benchmarks, and observe model performance to degrade as much as 12%. However, these perturbations do not affect all models equally: even a single perturbation alters the relative ranking of models in 63% of cases, impacting conclusions about comparative model performance. Decomposing the total variance of both state-of-the-art open-weight and commercial models, we find that semantics-preserving input perturbations can account for up to half of the performance variance for a given model. Brittlebench highlights the need for more robust evaluations and models, and allows us to systematically understand model brittleness.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) has become the predominant algorithm for on-policy reinforcement learning due to its scalability and empirical robustness across domains. However, there is a significant disconnect between the underlying foundations of trust region methods and the heuristic clipped objective used in PPO. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing the Bounded Ratio Reinforcement Learning (BRRL) framework. We formulate a novel regularized and constrained policy optimization problem and derive its analytical optimal solution. We prove that this solution ensures monotonic performance improvement. To handle parameterized policy classes, we develop a policy optimization algorithm called Bounded Policy Optimization (BPO) that minimizes an advantage-weighted divergence between the policy and the analytic optimal solution from BRRL. We further establish a lower bound on the expected performance of the resulting policy in terms of the BPO loss function. Notably, our framework also provides a new theoretical lens to interpret the success of the PPO loss, and connects trust region policy optimization and the Cross-Entropy Method (CEM). We additionally extend BPO to Group-relative BPO (GBPO) for LLM fine-tuning. Empirical evaluations of BPO across MuJoCo, Atari, and complex IsaacLab environments (e.g., Humanoid locomotion), and of GBPO for LLM fine-tuning tasks, demonstrate that BPO and GBPO generally match or outperform PPO and GRPO in stability and final performance.

We study multi-agent reinforcement learning in the setting of episodic Markov decision processes, where multiple agents cooperate via communication through a central server. We propose a provably efficient algorithm based on value iteration that enable asynchronous communication while ensuring the advantage of cooperation with low communication overhead. With linear function approximation, we prove that our algorithm enjoys an mathcal{O}(d^{3/2}H^2K) regret with mathcal{O}(dHM^2) communication complexity, where d is the feature dimension, H is the horizon length, M is the total number of agents, and K is the total number of episodes. We also provide a lower bound showing that a minimal Omega(dM) communication complexity is required to improve the performance through collaboration.

Multitask learning and related frameworks have achieved tremendous success in modern applications. In multitask learning problem, we are given a set of heterogeneous datasets collected from related source tasks and hope to enhance the performance above what we could hope to achieve by solving each of them individually. The recent work of arXiv:2006.15785 has showed that, without access to distributional information, no algorithm based on aggregating samples alone can guarantee optimal risk as long as the sample size per task is bounded. In this paper, we focus on understanding the statistical limits of multitask learning. We go beyond the no-free-lunch theorem in arXiv:2006.15785 by establishing a stronger impossibility result of adaptation that holds for arbitrarily large sample size per task. This improvement conveys an important message that the hardness of multitask learning cannot be overcame by having abundant data per task. We also discuss the notion of optimal adaptivity that may be of future interests.

This paper studies the fundamental limits of reinforcement learning (RL) in the challenging partially observable setting. While it is well-established that learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) requires exponentially many samples in the worst case, a surge of recent work shows that polynomial sample complexities are achievable under the revealing condition -- A natural condition that requires the observables to reveal some information about the unobserved latent states. However, the fundamental limits for learning in revealing POMDPs are much less understood, with existing lower bounds being rather preliminary and having substantial gaps from the current best upper bounds. We establish strong PAC and regret lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs. Our lower bounds scale polynomially in all relevant problem parameters in a multiplicative fashion, and achieve significantly smaller gaps against the current best upper bounds, providing a solid starting point for future studies. In particular, for multi-step revealing POMDPs, we show that (1) the latent state-space dependence is at least Omega(S^{1.5}) in the PAC sample complexity, which is notably harder than the Theta(S) scaling for fully-observable MDPs; (2) Any polynomial sublinear regret is at least Omega(T^{2/3}), suggesting its fundamental difference from the single-step case where O(T) regret is achievable. Technically, our hard instance construction adapts techniques in distribution testing, which is new to the RL literature and may be of independent interest.

The advancement of machine learning for compiler optimization, particularly within the polyhedral model, is constrained by the scarcity of large-scale, public performance datasets. This data bottleneck forces researchers to undertake costly data generation campaigns, slowing down innovation and hindering reproducible research learned code optimization. To address this gap, we introduce LOOPerSet, a new public dataset containing 28 million labeled data points derived from 220,000 unique, synthetically generated polyhedral programs. Each data point maps a program and a complex sequence of semantics-preserving transformations (such as fusion, skewing, tiling, and parallelism)to a ground truth performance measurement (execution time). The scale and diversity of LOOPerSet make it a valuable resource for training and evaluating learned cost models, benchmarking new model architectures, and exploring the frontiers of automated polyhedral scheduling. The dataset is released under a permissive license to foster reproducible research and lower the barrier to entry for data-driven compiler optimization.

Resource constraints increasingly determine what can be trained, fine-tuned, and deployed in large language models (LLMs), yet efficiency is often studied through isolated techniques rather than as an interacting system of limits. This survey adopts a constraint-centric perspective and organizes recent progress around three coupled bottlenecks: data efficiency (what to train on), memory efficiency (how to fit training), and compute budget awareness (when and where to spend FLOPs). On the data axis, we review selection and pruning methods that maximize learning per token, ranging from scalable proxy signals based on learning dynamics to gradient- and influence-based scoring, as well as difficulty-aware and curriculum-style strategies. We highlight emerging evidence that different notions of good data dominate in different regimes, implying that optimal subsets depend on the task objective and resource budget rather than being universal. On the systems side, we show that GPU memory, not raw compute, is often the dominant bottleneck in fine-tuning, and that effective scaling requires jointly reducing weight storage, optimizer states, and activation memory rather than optimizing any single component in isolation. Beyond memory, we frame training and inference as compute-governed processes in which optimization, data selection, and decoding must explicitly account for finite FLOP budgets. We review evidence for compute-optimal allocation and stopping rules, where computation should be halted or reallocated once marginal performance gains fall below a budget-dependent threshold. Together, these results unify compute-aware data selection, scaling laws, and adaptive inference under a common principle of resource-conditioned decision-making.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Performance bugs challenge software development, degrading performance and wasting computational resources. Software developers invest substantial effort in addressing these issues. Curating these performance bugs can offer valuable insights to the software engineering research community, aiding in developing new mitigation strategies. However, there is no large-scale open-source performance bugs dataset available. To bridge this gap, we propose PerfCurator, a repository miner that collects performance bug-related commits at scale. PerfCurator employs PcBERT-KD, a 125M parameter BERT model trained to classify performance bug-related commits. Our evaluation shows PcBERT-KD achieves accuracy comparable to 7 billion parameter LLMs but with significantly lower computational overhead, enabling cost-effective deployment on CPU clusters. Utilizing PcBERT-KD as the core component, we deployed PerfCurator on a 50-node CPU cluster to mine GitHub repositories. This extensive mining operation resulted in the construction of a large-scale dataset comprising 114K performance bug-fix commits in Python, 217.9K in C++, and 76.6K in Java. Our results demonstrate that this large-scale dataset significantly enhances the effectiveness of data-driven performance bug detection systems.

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should influence beliefs of rational receivers who take decisions through Bayesian updating of a common prior. We focus on the online Bayesian persuasion framework, in which the sender repeatedly faces one or more receivers with unknown and adversarially selected types. First, we show how to obtain a tight tilde O(T^{1/2}) regret bound in the case in which the sender faces a single receiver and has partial feedback, improving over the best previously known bound of tilde O(T^{4/5}). Then, we provide the first no-regret guarantees for the multi-receiver setting under partial feedback. Finally, we show how to design no-regret algorithms with polynomial per-iteration running time by exploiting type reporting, thereby circumventing known intractability results on online Bayesian persuasion. We provide efficient algorithms guaranteeing a O(T^{1/2}) regret upper bound both in the single- and multi-receiver scenario when type reporting is allowed.

In this work, we study first-order algorithms for solving Bilevel Optimization (BO) where the objective functions are smooth but possibly nonconvex in both levels and the variables are restricted to closed convex sets. As a first step, we study the landscape of BO through the lens of penalty methods, in which the upper- and lower-level objectives are combined in a weighted sum with penalty parameter sigma > 0. In particular, we establish a strong connection between the penalty function and the hyper-objective by explicitly characterizing the conditions under which the values and derivatives of the two must be O(sigma)-close. A by-product of our analysis is the explicit formula for the gradient of hyper-objective when the lower-level problem has multiple solutions under minimal conditions, which could be of independent interest. Next, viewing the penalty formulation as O(sigma)-approximation of the original BO, we propose first-order algorithms that find an epsilon-stationary solution by optimizing the penalty formulation with sigma = O(epsilon). When the perturbed lower-level problem uniformly satisfies the small-error proximal error-bound (EB) condition, we propose a first-order algorithm that converges to an epsilon-stationary point of the penalty function, using in total O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-7}) accesses to first-order (stochastic) gradient oracles when the oracle is deterministic and oracles are noisy, respectively. Under an additional assumption on stochastic oracles, we show that the algorithm can be implemented in a fully {\it single-loop} manner, i.e., with O(1) samples per iteration, and achieves the improved oracle-complexity of O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-5}), respectively.

As first-order optimization methods become the method of choice for solving large-scale optimization problems, optimization solvers based on first-order algorithms are being built. Such general-purpose solvers must robustly detect infeasible or misspecified problem instances, but the computational complexity of first-order methods for doing so has yet to be formally studied. In this work, we characterize the optimal accelerated rate of infeasibility detection. We show that the standard fixed-point iteration achieves a O(1/k^2) and O(1/k) rates, respectively, on the normalized iterates and the fixed-point residual converging to the infimal displacement vector, while the accelerated fixed-point iteration achieves O(1/k^2) and mathcal{O}(1/k^2) rates. We then provide a matching complexity lower bound to establish that Theta(1/k^2) is indeed the optimal accelerated rate.

Significant work has been recently dedicated to the stochastic delayed bandit setting because of its relevance in applications. The applicability of existing algorithms is however restricted by the fact that strong assumptions are often made on the delay distributions, such as full observability, restrictive shape constraints, or uniformity over arms. In this work, we weaken them significantly and only assume that there is a bound on the tail of the delay. In particular, we cover the important case where the delay distributions vary across arms, and the case where the delays are heavy-tailed. Addressing these difficulties, we propose a simple but efficient UCB-based algorithm called the PatientBandits. We provide both problems-dependent and problems-independent bounds on the regret as well as performance lower bounds.

Agentic workflows, where multiple AI agents collaborate to accomplish complex tasks like reasoning or planning, are becoming increasingly prevalent. However, these workflows often suffer from error propagation and sub-optimal performance, largely due to poorly designed prompts that fail to effectively guide individual agents. This is a critical problem because it limits the reliability and scalability of these powerful systems. We introduce ProRefine, an innovative inference-time prompt optimization method that leverages textual feedback from large language models (LLMs) to address this challenge. ProRefine dynamically refines prompts for multi-step reasoning tasks without additional training or ground truth labels. Evaluated on five benchmark mathematical reasoning datasets, ProRefine significantly surpasses zero-shot Chain-of-Thought baselines by 3 to 37 percentage points. This approach not only boosts accuracy but also allows smaller models to match the performance of larger ones, highlighting its potential for efficient and scalable AI deployment, and democratizing access to high-performing AI.

We study the problem of optimizing a function under a budgeted number of evaluations. We only assume that the function is locally smooth around one of its global optima. The difficulty of optimization is measured in terms of 1) the amount of noise b of the function evaluation and 2) the local smoothness, d, of the function. A smaller d results in smaller optimization error. We come with a new, simple, and parameter-free approach. First, for all values of b and d, this approach recovers at least the state-of-the-art regret guarantees. Second, our approach additionally obtains these results while being agnostic to the values of both b and d. This leads to the first algorithm that naturally adapts to an unknown range of noise b and leads to significant improvements in a moderate and low-noise regime. Third, our approach also obtains a remarkable improvement over the state-of-the-art SOO algorithm when the noise is very low which includes the case of optimization under deterministic feedback (b=0). There, under our minimal local smoothness assumption, this improvement is of exponential magnitude and holds for a class of functions that covers the vast majority of functions that practitioners optimize (d=0). We show that our algorithmic improvement is borne out in experiments as we empirically show faster convergence on common benchmarks.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is a heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop successful algorithms for a variety of continuous control problems. However, theoretical work on GP-PSRL is limited. All known regret bounds either have a sub-optimal growth rate, require strong smoothness assumptions, or fail to properly account for the fact that the set of possible system states is unbounded. Through a recursive application of the Borell-Tsirelson-Ibragimov-Sudakov inequality, we show that, with high probability, the states actually visited by the algorithm are contained within a ball of near-constant radius. We then use the chaining method to control the regret suffered by GP-PSRL under weak smoothness conditions. Our main result is a Bayesian regret bound of the order mathcal{O}(Hγ_TT), where H is the horizon, T is the number of time steps and γ_T is the expected information gain. With this result, we resolve the limitations with prior theoretical work on PSRL, and provide the theoretical foundation and tools for analyzing PSRL in complex settings.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

In this paper, we revisit one of the simplest problems in data structures: the task of inserting elements into an open-addressed hash table so that elements can later be retrieved with as few probes as possible. We show that, even without reordering elements over time, it is possible to construct a hash table that achieves far better expected search complexities (both amortized and worst-case) than were previously thought possible. Along the way, we disprove the central conjecture left by Yao in his seminal paper ``Uniform Hashing is Optimal''. All of our results come with matching lower bounds.

When considering a model architecture, there are several ways to reduce its memory footprint. Historically, popular approaches included selecting smaller architectures and creating sparse networks through pruning. More recently, randomized parameter-sharing (RPS) methods have gained traction for model compression at start of training. In this paper, we comprehensively assess the trade-off between memory and accuracy across RPS, pruning techniques, and building smaller models. Our findings demonstrate that RPS, which is both data and model-agnostic, consistently outperforms/matches smaller models and all moderately informed pruning strategies, such as MAG, SNIP, SYNFLOW, and GRASP, across the entire compression range. This advantage becomes particularly pronounced in higher compression scenarios. Notably, even when compared to highly informed pruning techniques like Lottery Ticket Rewinding (LTR), RPS exhibits superior performance in high compression settings. This points out inherent capacity advantage that RPS enjoys over sparse models. Theoretically, we establish RPS as a superior technique in terms of memory-efficient representation when compared to pruning for linear models. This paper argues in favor of paradigm shift towards RPS based models. During our rigorous evaluation of RPS, we identified issues in the state-of-the-art RPS technique ROAST, specifically regarding stability (ROAST's sensitivity to initialization hyperparameters, often leading to divergence) and Pareto-continuity (ROAST's inability to recover the accuracy of the original model at zero compression). We provably address both of these issues. We refer to the modified RPS, which incorporates our improvements, as STABLE-RPS.

Alignment is crucial for training large language models. The predominant strategy is Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as the de-facto algorithm. Yet, PPO is known to struggle with computational inefficiency, a challenge that this paper aims to address. We identify three important properties of RLHF tasks: fast simulation, deterministic transitions, and trajectory-level rewards, which are not leveraged in PPO. Based on these properties, we develop ReMax, a new algorithm tailored for RLHF. The design of ReMax builds on the celebrated algorithm REINFORCE but is enhanced with a new variance-reduction technique. ReMax offers threefold advantages over PPO: first, it is simple to implement with just 6 lines of code. It further eliminates more than 4 hyper-parameters in PPO, which are laborious to tune. Second, ReMax reduces memory usage by about 50%. To illustrate, PPO runs out of memory when fine-tuning a Llama2-7B model on A100-80GB GPUs, whereas ReMax can support the training. Even though memory-efficient techniques (e.g., ZeRO and offload) are employed for PPO to afford training, ReMax can utilize a larger batch size to increase throughput. Third, in terms of wall-clock time, PPO is about twice as slow as ReMax per iteration. Importantly, these improvements do not sacrifice task performance. We hypothesize that these advantages can be maintained in larger-scale models.

Scientific discovery via symbolic regression is often viewed as statistically and computationally intractable because the hypothesis space of expressions grows combinatorially with depth. This paper revisits the statistical side through the lens of PAC learning, focusing on compositional function trees built from a finite vocabulary of smooth operators (e.g., {+,times,sin,exp} and affine maps). We prove that the relevant generalization quantity, Rademacher complexity, hence the excess risk, does not necessarily blow up exponentially with the number of distinct symbolic structures, but is controlled by (i) the depth d and (ii) the Lipschitz constants of the base operators along the composed computation graph. Concretely, under mild Lipschitz conditions on operators and bounded affine leaves, a finite-union bound over a vocabulary of size K=|H_{base}| together with Maurer-type vector contraction yields R_n(H_{comp}^{d}) leq (Kb2L)^{d-1}R_n(H_{comp}^{1}) with arity bound b; corresponding high-probability risk bounds scale as O(L^{d}/n) when K,b=O(1) and R_n(H_{comp}^{1})=O(n^{-1/2}). We complement the theory with a modular codebase that trains differentiable operator trees (not MLPs) on synthetic "physics-like" targets of controlled depth and shows that the empirical generalization gap correlates positively with the predicted complexity term (L^{d})/n.

We introduce Differential Performance Evaluation (DPE), a framework designed to reliably evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) for efficient code generation. Traditional coding benchmarks often fail to provide reliable insights into code efficiency, due to their reliance on simplistic test inputs and the absence of effective compound metrics. DPE addresses these issues by focusing on efficiency-demanding programming tasks and establishing an insightful compound metric for performance evaluation. DPE operates in two phases: To curate efficiency datasets, it selects efficiency-demanding tasks from existing coding benchmarks and generates computationally expensive inputs to stress the efficiency of LLM solutions. To assess the code efficiency, DPE profiles the new solution and compares it globally against a set of reference solutions that exhibit distinct efficiency levels, where the matched level defines its efficiency score. As a proof of concept, we use DPE to create EvalPerf, a benchmark with 121 performance-challenging coding tasks. Our comprehensive evaluation draws interesting findings on the efficiency impact of model sizes, instruction tuning, and prompting. For example, while the scaling law fails to account for code efficiency, general instruction tuning benefits both code correctness and efficiency. We also evaluate the evaluation by examining the effectiveness of DPE, showing that EvalPerf is reliable and convenient to use even across platforms.

The increasing complexity of machine learning models and the proliferation of diverse hardware architectures (CPUs, GPUs, accelerators) make achieving optimal performance a significant challenge. Heterogeneity in instruction sets, specialized kernel requirements for different data types and model features (e.g., sparsity, quantization), and architecture-specific optimizations complicate performance tuning. Manual optimization is resource-intensive, while existing automatic approaches often rely on complex hardware-specific heuristics and uninterpretable intermediate representations, hindering performance portability. We introduce PerfLLM, a novel automatic optimization methodology leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) and Reinforcement Learning (RL). Central to this is PerfDojo, an environment framing optimization as an RL game using a human-readable, mathematically-inspired code representation that guarantees semantic validity through transformations. This allows effective optimization without prior hardware knowledge, facilitating both human analysis and RL agent training. We demonstrate PerfLLM's ability to achieve significant performance gains across diverse CPU (x86, Arm, RISC-V) and GPU architectures.

Performance optimization is a critical yet challenging aspect of software development, often requiring a deep understanding of system behavior, algorithmic tradeoffs, and careful code modifications. Although recent advances in AI coding agents have accelerated code generation and bug fixing, little is known about how these agents perform on real-world performance optimization tasks. We present the first empirical study comparing agent- and human-authored performance optimization commits, analyzing 324 agent-generated and 83 human-authored PRs from the AIDev dataset across adoption, maintainability, optimization patterns, and validation practices. We find that AI-authored performance PRs are less likely to include explicit performance validation than human-authored PRs (45.7\% vs. 63.6\%, p=0.007). In addition, AI-authored PRs largely use the same optimization patterns as humans. We further discuss limitations and opportunities for advancing agentic code optimization.

Machine learning approaches relying on such criteria as adversarial robustness or multi-agent settings have raised the need for solving game-theoretic equilibrium problems. Of particular relevance to these applications are methods targeting finite-sum structure, which generically arises in empirical variants of learning problems in these contexts. Further, methods with computable approximation errors are highly desirable, as they provide verifiable exit criteria. Motivated by these applications, we study finite-sum monotone inclusion problems, which model broad classes of equilibrium problems. Our main contributions are variants of the classical Halpern iteration that employ variance reduction to obtain improved complexity guarantees in which n component operators in the finite sum are ``on average'' either cocoercive or Lipschitz continuous and monotone, with parameter L. The resulting oracle complexity of our methods, which provide guarantees for the last iterate and for a (computable) operator norm residual, is mathcal{O}( n + nLvarepsilon^{-1}), which improves upon existing methods by a factor up to n. This constitutes the first variance reduction-type result for general finite-sum monotone inclusions and for more specific problems such as convex-concave optimization when operator norm residual is the optimality measure. We further argue that, up to poly-logarithmic factors, this complexity is unimprovable in the monotone Lipschitz setting; i.e., the provided result is near-optimal.

We introduce SWE-Bench Pro, a substantially more challenging benchmark that builds upon the best practices of SWE-BENCH [25], but is explicitly designed to capture realistic, complex, enterprise-level problems beyond the scope of SWE-BENCH. SWE-BENCH PRO contains 1,865 problems sourced from a diverse set of 41 actively maintained repositories spanning business applications, B2B services, and developer tools. The benchmark is partitioned into a public set with open access to problems sourced from 11 repositories, a held-out set of 12 repositories and a commercial set of 18 proprietary repositories where we have formal partnership agreements with early-stage startups. Problems in the held-out and the commercial set are not publicly accessible, but we release results on the commercial set. Our benchmark features long-horizon tasks that may require hours to days for a professional software engineer to complete, often involving patches across multiple files and substantial code modifications. All tasks are human-verified and augmented with sufficient context to ensure resolvability. In our evaluation of widely used coding models, under a unified scaffold, we observe that their performance on SWE-Bench PRO remains below 25% (Pass@1), with GPT-5 achieving the highest score to date at 23.3%. To better understand these limitations, we cluster the failure modes observed in the collected agent trajectories for a clearer characterization of the error patterns exhibited by current models. Overall, SWE-BENCH PRO provides a contamination-resistant testbed that more faithfully captures the complexity and diversity of real-world software development, advancing the pursuit of truly autonomous software engineering agents at a professional level.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in formal theorem proving, yet state-of-the-art performance often necessitates prohibitive test-time compute via massive roll-outs or extended context windows. In this work, we address this scalability bottleneck by exploiting an informative structure in formal verification: the observation that compilers map a vast space of diverse proof attempts to a compact set of structured failure modes. We introduce a learning-to-refine framework that leverages this compression to perform efficient learning and proof exploration. We perform tree search that corrects errors locally conditioned on explicit verifier feedback, thereby circumventing the costs associated with accumulating a long history of proof attempts. Extensive evaluations show that our method consistently amplifies the reasoning capabilities of base provers across varying scales. Notably, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on PutnamBench among publicly reported sim8B and sim32B parameter models under comparable test-time budgets, offering a scalable paradigm for next-generation verifier-guided reasoning.

Quantization is a practical technique for making large language models easier to deploy by reducing the precision used to store and operate on model weights. This can lower memory use and improve runtime feasibility on constrained hardware, which is especially relevant for users running models locally. Quantization in llama.cpp enables large language models to run on commodity hardware, but available formats are often evaluated inconsistently, making it hard to choose among schemes. We present a unified empirical study of the llama.cpp quantization on a single modern model, Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct (FP16, GGUF), covering 3-8 bit K-quant and legacy formats. We evaluate downstream task performance across standard reasoning, knowledge, instruction-following, and truthfulness benchmarks, and also measure perplexity and CPU throughput (prefill/decoding) alongside model size, compression, and quantization time. Ultimately, this work is a practical guide for choosing a llama.cpp quantization scheme, helping readers make informed, context-aware decisions for their intended use and resource budget.

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

We show that preconditioners constructed by random sampling can perform well without meeting the standard requirements of iterative methods. When applied to graph Laplacians, this leads to ultra-sparsifiers that in expectation behave as the nearly-optimal ones given by [Kolla-Makarychev-Saberi-Teng STOC`10]. Combining this with the recursive preconditioning framework by [Spielman-Teng STOC`04] and improved embedding algorithms, this leads to algorithms that solve symmetric diagonally dominant linear systems and electrical flow problems in expected time close to mlog^{1/2}n .

Production-grade LLM systems require robust adherence to dozens or even hundreds of instructions simultaneously. However, the instruction-following capabilities of LLMs at high instruction densities have not yet been characterized, as existing benchmarks only evaluate models on tasks with a single or few instructions. We introduce IFScale, a simple benchmark of 500 keyword-inclusion instructions for a business report writing task to measure how instruction-following performance degrades as instruction density increases. We evaluate 20 state-of-the-art models across seven major providers and find that even the best frontier models only achieve 68% accuracy at the max density of 500 instructions. Our analysis reveals model size and reasoning capability to correlate with 3 distinct performance degradation patterns, bias towards earlier instructions, and distinct categories of instruction-following errors. Our insights can help inform design of instruction-dense prompts in real-world applications and highlight important performance-latency tradeoffs. We open-source the benchmark and all results for further analysis at https://distylai.github.io/IFScale.

We give a very general and simple framework to incorporate predictions on requests for online covering problems in a rigorous and black-box manner. Our framework turns any online algorithm with competitive ratio ρ(k, cdot) depending on k, the number of arriving requests, into an algorithm with competitive ratio of ρ(η, cdot), where η is the prediction error. With accurate enough prediction, the resulting competitive ratio breaks through the corresponding worst-case online lower bounds, and smoothly degrades as the prediction error grows. This framework directly applies to a wide range of well-studied online covering problems such as facility location, Steiner problems, set cover, parking permit, etc., and yields improved and novel bounds.

We study the fine-grained uniform convergence behavior of halfspaces beyond worst-case VC bounds. For inhomogeneous halfspaces in R^d with dge 2, we show that standard first-order VC bounds are essentially tight: even consistent hypotheses can incur population error Θ(dln(n/d)/n), and in the agnostic setting the deviation scales as τln(1/τ) at true error τ. In contrast, homogeneous halfspaces in R^2 exhibit a markedly different behavior. In the realizable case, every hypothesis consistent with the sample has error O(1/n). In the agnostic case, we prove a bandwise, log-free deviation bound on each dyadic risk band via a critical-wedge localization argument. Unioning over bands incurs only a lnln n overhead, and we establish a matching lower bound showing this overhead is unavoidable. Together, these results give a fine-grained and nearly complete picture of uniform convergence for halfspaces, revealing sharp dimensional and structural thresholds.

Polytrees are a subclass of Bayesian networks that seek to capture the conditional dependencies between a set of n variables as a directed forest and are motivated by their more efficient inference and improved interpretability. Since the problem of learning the best polytree is NP-hard, we study which restrictions make it more tractable by considering for example in-degree bounds, properties of score functions measuring the quality of a polytree, and approximation algorithms. We devise an algorithm that finds the optimal polytree in time O((2+ε)^n) for arbitrarily small ε> 0 and any constant in-degree bound k, improving over the fastest previously known algorithm of time complexity O(3^n). We further give polynomial-time algorithms for finding a polytree whose score is within a factor of k from the optimal one for arbitrary scores and a factor of 2 for additive ones. Many of the results are complemented by (nearly) tight lower bounds for either the time complexity or the approximation factors.

We propose a new bound for generalization of neural networks using Koopman operators. Whereas most of existing works focus on low-rank weight matrices, we focus on full-rank weight matrices. Our bound is tighter than existing norm-based bounds when the condition numbers of weight matrices are small. Especially, it is completely independent of the width of the network if the weight matrices are orthogonal. Our bound does not contradict to the existing bounds but is a complement to the existing bounds. As supported by several existing empirical results, low-rankness is not the only reason for generalization. Furthermore, our bound can be combined with the existing bounds to obtain a tighter bound. Our result sheds new light on understanding generalization of neural networks with full-rank weight matrices, and it provides a connection between operator-theoretic analysis and generalization of neural networks.

Searching for approximate nearest neighbors (ANN) in the high-dimensional Euclidean space is a pivotal problem. Recently, with the help of fast SIMD-based implementations, Product Quantization (PQ) and its variants can often efficiently and accurately estimate the distances between the vectors and have achieved great success in the in-memory ANN search. Despite their empirical success, we note that these methods do not have a theoretical error bound and are observed to fail disastrously on some real-world datasets. Motivated by this, we propose a new randomized quantization method named RaBitQ, which quantizes D-dimensional vectors into D-bit strings. RaBitQ guarantees a sharp theoretical error bound and provides good empirical accuracy at the same time. In addition, we introduce efficient implementations of RaBitQ, supporting to estimate the distances with bitwise operations or SIMD-based operations. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets confirm that (1) our method outperforms PQ and its variants in terms of accuracy-efficiency trade-off by a clear margin and (2) its empirical performance is well-aligned with our theoretical analysis.

LLM serving systems typically treat user prompts as monolithic inputs, optimizing inference through decoding tricks or inter-query batching. However, many real-world prompts contain latent semantic parallelism--decomposable structures where subtasks can be executed independently to reduce latency while preserving meaning. We introduce PARALLELPROMPT, the first benchmark for measuring intra-query parallelism in natural user prompts. Our dataset comprises over 37,000 real-world prompts from public LLM chat logs, each annotated with a structured schema capturing task templates, shared context, and iteration inputs. These schemas are extracted using LLM-assisted prompting with rule-based multilingual validation. To evaluate the benefits of decomposition, we provide an execution suite that benchmarks serial vs. parallel strategies, measuring latency, structural adherence, and semantic fidelity. Our results show that intra-query parallelism can be successfully parsed in over 75% of curated datasets, unlocking up to 5x speedups on tasks like translation, comprehension, and comparative analysis, with minimal quality degradation. By releasing this benchmark, curation pipeline, and evaluation suite, we provide the first standardized testbed for studying structure-aware execution in LLM serving pipelines.

Training modern neural networks is increasingly fragile, with rare but severe destabilizing updates often causing irreversible divergence or silent performance degradation. Existing optimization methods primarily rely on preventive mechanisms embedded within the optimizer, offering limited ability to detect and recover from instability once it occurs. We introduce a supervisory runtime stability framework that treats optimization as a controlled stochastic process. By isolating an innovation signal derived from secondary measurements, such as validation probes, the framework enables automatic detection and recovery from destabilizing updates without modifying the underlying optimizer. We provide theoretical runtime safety guarantees that formalize bounded degradation and recovery. Our implementation incurs minimal overhead and is compatible with memory-constrained training settings.

Given a K-vertex simplex in a d-dimensional space, suppose we measure n points on the simplex with noise (hence, some of the observed points fall outside the simplex). Vertex hunting is the problem of estimating the K vertices of the simplex. A popular vertex hunting algorithm is successive projection algorithm (SPA). However, SPA is observed to perform unsatisfactorily under strong noise or outliers. We propose pseudo-point SPA (pp-SPA). It uses a projection step and a denoise step to generate pseudo-points and feed them into SPA for vertex hunting. We derive error bounds for pp-SPA, leveraging on extreme value theory of (possibly) high-dimensional random vectors. The results suggest that pp-SPA has faster rates and better numerical performances than SPA. Our analysis includes an improved non-asymptotic bound for the original SPA, which is of independent interest.

This work studies the combinatorial optimization problem of finding an optimal core tensor shape, also called multilinear rank, for a size-constrained Tucker decomposition. We give an algorithm with provable approximation guarantees for its reconstruction error via connections to higher-order singular values. Specifically, we introduce a novel Tucker packing problem, which we prove is NP-hard, and give a polynomial-time approximation scheme based on a reduction to the 2-dimensional knapsack problem with a matroid constraint. We also generalize our techniques to tree tensor network decompositions. We implement our algorithm using an integer programming solver, and show that its solution quality is competitive with (and sometimes better than) the greedy algorithm that uses the true Tucker decomposition loss at each step, while also running up to 1000x faster.

The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) has created significant challenges for efficient inference at scale. Unlike traditional workloads, LLM inference is constrained by both computation and the memory overhead of key-value (KV) caching, which accelerates decoding but quickly exhausts GPU memory. In this paper, we introduce the first queueing-theoretic framework that explicitly incorporates both computation and GPU memory constraints into the analysis of LLM inference. Based on this framework, we derive rigorous stability and instability conditions that determine whether an LLM inference service can sustain incoming demand without unbounded queue growth. This result offers a powerful tool for system deployment, potentially addressing the core challenge of GPU provisioning. By combining an estimated request arrival rate with our derived stable service rate, operators can calculate the necessary cluster size to avoid both costly over-purchasing and performance-violating under-provisioning. We further validate our theoretical predictions through extensive experiments in real GPU production environments. Our results show that the predicted stability conditions are highly accurate, with deviations typically within 10%.

Autonomous machine learning agents have revolutionized scientific discovery, yet they remain constrained by a Generate-Execute-Feedback paradigm. Previous approaches suffer from a severe Execution Bottleneck, as hypothesis evaluation relies strictly on expensive physical execution. To bypass these physical constraints, we internalize execution priors to substitute costly runtime checks with instantaneous predictive reasoning, drawing inspiration from World Models. In this work, we formalize the task of Data-centric Solution Preference and construct a comprehensive corpus of 18,438 pairwise comparisons. We demonstrate that LLMs exhibit significant predictive capabilities when primed with a Verified Data Analysis Report, achieving 61.5% accuracy and robust confidence calibration. Finally, we instantiate this framework in FOREAGENT, an agent that employs a Predict-then-Verify loop, achieving a 6x acceleration in convergence while surpassing execution-based baselines by +6%. Our code and dataset will be publicly available soon at https://github.com/zjunlp/predict-before-execute.

In this article, we introduce a new parameterized family of topological invariants, taking the form of candidate decompositions, for multi-parameter persistence modules. We prove that our candidate decompositions are controllable approximations: when restricting to modules that can be decomposed into interval summands, we establish theoretical results about the approximation error between our candidate decompositions and the true underlying module in terms of the standard interleaving and bottleneck distances. Moreover, even when the underlying module does not admit such a decomposition, our candidate decompositions are nonetheless stable invariants; small perturbations in the underlying module lead to small perturbations in the candidate decomposition. Then, we introduce MMA (Multipersistence Module Approximation): an algorithm for computing stable instances of such invariants, which is based on fibered barcodes and exact matchings, two constructions that stem from the theory of single-parameter persistence. By design, MMA can handle an arbitrary number of filtrations, and has bounded complexity and running time. Finally, we present empirical evidence validating the generalization capabilities and running time speed-ups of MMA on several data sets.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Regret minimization in streaming multi-armed bandits (MABs) has been studied extensively in recent years. In the single-pass setting with K arms and T trials, a regret lower bound of Omega(T^{2/3}) has been proved for any algorithm with o(K) memory (Maiti et al. [NeurIPS'21]; Agarwal at al. [COLT'22]). On the other hand, however, the previous best regret upper bound is still O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}log^{1/3}(T)), which is achieved by the streaming implementation of the simple uniform exploration. The O(K^{1/3}log^{1/3}(T)) gap leaves the open question of the tight regret bound in the single-pass MABs with sublinear arm memory. In this paper, we answer this open problem and complete the picture of regret minimization in single-pass streaming MABs. We first improve the regret lower bound to Omega(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}) for algorithms with o(K) memory, which matches the uniform exploration regret up to a logarithm factor in T. We then show that the log^{1/3}(T) factor is not necessary, and we can achieve O(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}) regret by finding an varepsilon-best arm and committing to it in the rest of the trials. For regret minimization with high constant probability, we can apply the single-memory varepsilon-best arm algorithms in Jin et al. [ICML'21] to obtain the optimal bound. Furthermore, for the expected regret minimization, we design an algorithm with a single-arm memory that achieves O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}log(K)) regret, and an algorithm with O(log^{*}(n))-memory with the optimal O(K^{1/3} T^{2/3}) regret following the varepsilon-best arm algorithm in Assadi and Wang [STOC'20]. We further tested the empirical performances of our algorithms. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithms consistently outperform the benchmark uniform exploration algorithm by a large margin, and on occasion, reduce the regret by up to 70%.

We propose a new definition of instance optimality for differentially private estimation algorithms. Our definition requires an optimal algorithm to compete, simultaneously for every dataset D, with the best private benchmark algorithm that (a) knows D in advance and (b) is evaluated by its worst-case performance on large subsets of D. That is, the benchmark algorithm need not perform well when potentially extreme points are added to D; it only has to handle the removal of a small number of real data points that already exist. This makes our benchmark significantly stronger than those proposed in prior work. We nevertheless show, for real-valued datasets, how to construct private algorithms that achieve our notion of instance optimality when estimating a broad class of dataset properties, including means, quantiles, and ell_p-norm minimizers. For means in particular, we provide a detailed analysis and show that our algorithm simultaneously matches or exceeds the asymptotic performance of existing algorithms under a range of distributional assumptions.

In recent years, significant attention has been directed towards learning average-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). However, existing algorithms either suffer from sub-optimal regret guarantees or computational inefficiencies. In this paper, we present the first tractable algorithm with minimax optimal regret of mathrm{O}(mathrm{sp(h^*) S A T}), where sp(h^*) is the span of the optimal bias function h^*, S times A is the size of the state-action space and T the number of learning steps. Remarkably, our algorithm does not require prior information on sp(h^*). Our algorithm relies on a novel subroutine, Projected Mitigated Extended Value Iteration (PMEVI), to compute bias-constrained optimal policies efficiently. This subroutine can be applied to various previous algorithms to improve regret bounds.

As the mathematical capabilities of large language models (LLMs) improve, it becomes increasingly important to evaluate their performance on research-level tasks at the frontier of mathematical knowledge. However, existing benchmarks are limited, as they focus solely on final-answer questions or high-school competition problems. To address this gap, we introduce IMProofBench, a private benchmark consisting of 39 peer-reviewed problems developed by expert mathematicians. Each problem requires a detailed proof and is paired with subproblems that have final answers, supporting both an evaluation of mathematical reasoning capabilities by human experts and a large-scale quantitative analysis through automated grading. Furthermore, unlike prior benchmarks, the evaluation setup simulates a realistic research environment: models operate in an agentic framework with tools like web search for literature review and mathematical software such as SageMath. Our results show that current LLMs can succeed at the more accessible research-level questions, but still encounter significant difficulties on more challenging problems. Quantitatively, Grok-4 achieves the highest accuracy of 52% on final-answer subproblems, while GPT-5 obtains the best performance for proof generation, achieving a fully correct solution for 22% of problems. IMProofBench will continue to evolve as a dynamic benchmark in collaboration with the mathematical community, ensuring its relevance for evaluating the next generation of LLMs.

Evaluating LLM agents on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and GAIA can be expensive, time-consuming, and requires complex infrastructure. A single evaluation can cost thousands of dollars and take days to complete. In contrast, non-agentic LLM benchmarks that test individual capabilities (e.g., reasoning, code generation) are fast and cheap to run. In this paper, we investigate whether performance on expensive agentic benchmarks can be accurately predicted by the performance on a small, carefully selected subset of atomic evaluation instances. We introduce PACE, a framework that constructs proxy benchmarks by selecting instances from existing non-agentic evaluations whose aggregate scores most reliably predict model performances on agentic benchmarks. Given a pool of candidate instances spanning atomic capabilities, PACE fits a regression that maps a model's scores on a compact subset of source instances to its score on the target agentic benchmark. The subset itself is curated by combining two complementary instance-selection strategies, target-relevance local selection and globally informative global selection. We apply PACE to the 4 target agentic benchmarks in this paper, which yields PACE-Bench, the concrete proxy benchmark that we evaluate in the paper. Experiments across 14 models, 4 agentic benchmarks, and 19 non-agentic benchmarks show that PACE-Bench predicts agentic scores with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) mean absolute error (MAE) under 4%, Spearman correlation above 0.80, and pairwise model-ranking accuracy around 85%, all at much less than 1% of the full agentic evaluation cost. We further analyze the selected proxy instances, revealing which skills each agentic benchmark uniquely demands. PACE enables practitioners to obtain reliable estimates of agentic performance during model development, selection, and routing, without the overhead of full agent evaluation.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Current LLM agent benchmarks, which predominantly focus on binary pass/fail tasks such as code generation or search-based question answering, often neglect the value of real-world engineering that is often captured through the iterative optimization of feasible designs. To this end, we introduce Frontier-Eng, a human-verified benchmark for generative optimization -- an iterative propose-execute-evaluate loop in which an agent generates candidate artifacts, receives executable verifier feedback, and revises them under a fixed interaction budget -- spanning 47 tasks across five broad engineering categories. Unlike previous suites, Frontier-Eng tasks are grounded in industrial-grade simulators and verifiers that provide continuous reward signals and enforce hard feasibility constraints under constrained budgets. We evaluate eight frontier language models using representative search frameworks, finding that while Claude 4.6 Opus achieves the most robust performance, the benchmark remains challenging for all models. Our analysis suggests a dual power-law decay in improvement frequency (sim 1/iteration) and magnitude (sim 1/improvement count). We further show that although width improves parallelism and diversity, depth remains crucial for hard-won improvements under a fixed budget. Frontier-Eng establishes a new standard for assessing the capacity of AI agents to integrate domain knowledge with executable feedback to solve complex, open-ended engineering problems.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Developing high-performance software is a complex task that requires specialized expertise. We introduce GSO, a benchmark for evaluating language models' capabilities in developing high-performance software. We develop an automated pipeline that generates and executes performance tests to analyze repository commit histories to identify 102 challenging optimization tasks across 10 codebases, spanning diverse domains and programming languages. An agent is provided with a codebase and performance test as a precise specification, and tasked to improve the runtime efficiency, which is measured against the expert developer optimization. Our quantitative evaluation reveals that leading SWE-Agents struggle significantly, achieving less than 5% success rate, with limited improvements even with inference-time scaling. Our qualitative analysis identifies key failure modes, including difficulties with low-level languages, practicing lazy optimization strategies, and challenges in accurately localizing bottlenecks. We release the code and artifacts of our benchmark along with agent trajectories to enable future research.

We revisit the standard perturbation-based approach of Abernethy et al. (2008) in the context of unconstrained Bandit Linear Optimization (uBLO). We show the surprising result that in the unconstrained setting, this approach effectively reduces Bandit Linear Optimization (BLO) to a standard Online Linear Optimization (OLO) problem. Our framework improves on prior work in several ways. First, we derive expected-regret guarantees when our perturbation scheme is combined with comparator-adaptive OLO algorithms, leading to new insights about the impact of different adversarial models on the resulting comparator-adaptive rates. We also extend our analysis to dynamic regret, obtaining the first guarantees with optimal P_T path-length dependencies without prior knowledge of P_T. We then develop the first high-probability guarantees for both static and dynamic regret in uBLO. Finally, we discuss lower bounds on the static regret, and prove the folklore Ω(dT) rate for adversarial linear bandits on the Euclidean ball, which is of independent interest.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.