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Aug 4

Transfer Learning for Meta-analysis Under Covariate Shift

Randomized controlled trials often do not represent the populations where decisions are made, and covariate shift across studies can invalidate standard IPD meta-analysis and transport estimators. We propose a placebo-anchored transport framework that treats source-trial outcomes as abundant proxy signals and target-trial placebo outcomes as scarce, high-fidelity gold labels to calibrate baseline risk. A low-complexity (sparse) correction anchors proxy outcome models to the target population, and the anchored models are embedded in a cross-fitted doubly robust learner, yielding a Neyman-orthogonal, target-site doubly robust estimator for patient-level heterogeneous treatment effects when target treated outcomes are available. We distinguish two regimes: in connected targets (with a treated arm), the method yields target-identified effect estimates; in disconnected targets (placebo-only), it reduces to a principled screen--then--transport procedure under explicit working-model transport assumptions. Experiments on synthetic data and a semi-synthetic IHDP benchmark evaluate pointwise CATE accuracy, ATE error, ranking quality for targeting, decision-theoretic policy regret, and calibration. Across connected settings, the proposed method is best or near-best and improves substantially over proxy-only, target-only, and transport baselines at small target sample sizes; in disconnected settings, it retains strong ranking performance for targeting while pointwise accuracy depends on the strength of the working transport condition.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 5

Knowledge Index of Noah's Ark

Knowledge benchmarks for LLMs face three issues: scaling-driven designs that do not operationalize disciplinary representativeness; flat-payment annotation that permits lazy consensus; and unaudited ranking instability under bounded test budgets. We introduce KINA, an 899-item benchmark across 261 fine-grained disciplines, with two formal results. First, we cast representativeness as a coverage-style objective over expert-elicited anchors and operationalize disciplinary representativeness through a proxy, yielding a (1-1/e) greedy approximation (Proposition 1); the guarantee applies to the proxy, not to population representativeness. Second, we prove a bonus-on-bar tournament weakly FOSD-dominates flat payment in released-review quality, with incentive-compatibility threshold B > Delta C / Delta p_min (Theorem 1). Evaluating 42 models from 13 labs, the top model, Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview, reaches 53.17%, followed by Claude-Opus-4.6 at 49.92% and GPT-5.4 at 48.55%, leaving substantial headroom below saturation. The full leaderboard shows a tiered structure rather than a smooth total order: a small frontier tier lies above 48%, a dense strong-model tier spans roughly 38-45%, and low-performing models remain only modestly above the 10% chance baseline. Tool augmentation adds up to 5.17 points across the five tool-use evaluations, with gains varying substantially across models. We report bootstrap ranking-stability statistics to make bounded-budget variance explicit and to discourage over-interpretation of adjacent ranks.

  • 27 authors
·
Jun 3

GAP: Geometric Anchor Pre-training for Data-Efficient Visuomotor Learning of Manipulation Tasks

Learning visuomotor policies from scarce expert demonstrations remains a core challenge in robotic manipulation. A primary hurdle lies in distilling high-dimensional RGB representations into control-relevant geometry without overfitting. While using frozen pre-trained Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) improves data efficiency, it also shifts most task adaptation onto a small spatial pooling module, which can latch onto task-irrelevant shortcuts and lose geometric grounding when finetuned with few data samples. More broadly, pre-trained visual representations used for policy learning have been observed to struggle under even minor scene perturbations, highlighting the need for robustness-oriented inductive biases. We propose Geometric Anchor Pre-training (GAP), a simple, action-free warm-up stage that regularizes the spatial adapter before downstream imitation learning. GAP pre-trains the pooling layer on a lightweight simulated proxy task where object masks are available at no cost, encouraging the adapter to produce keypoints that lie on the object, cover its spatial extent, and remain sharp and repeatable over time. This yields stable geometric anchors that provide a reliable coordinate interface for few-shot policy learning, while keeping the VFM frozen. We evaluate GAP on RoboMimic and ManiSkill under severe data scarcity (15-50 demonstrations) and domain shift. A simple adapter regularized with GAP consistently outperforms stronger attention-based poolers and end-to-end fine-tuning, achieving 62% success on RoboMimic Can with 15 demonstrations (+16% over AFA), 63% on the long-horizon high-precision Tool Hang task with 50 demonstrations, and 61% on ManiSkill StackCube with 30 demonstrations (+11% over full fine-tuning). The proxy stage is lightweight and fully decoupled from downstream tasks, making it practical to reuse across environments and manipulation skills.

  • 5 authors
·
May 14

TryOnCrafter: Unleashing Camera Trajectories for Realistic Video Virtual Try-on via a Renderable 4D Try-on Proxy

While Video Virtual Try-on (VVT) has achieved remarkable progress in synthesizing realistic garment overlays on dynamic subjects, existing paradigms remains fundamentally constrained by a passive dependency on source camera trajectories, failing to accommodate the requisite interactive freedom for omnidirectional viewpoint exploration. To address this limitation, we define a pioneering research frontier: Camera-controllable Video Virtual Try-on (CaM-VVT). Unlike conventional VVT, CaM-VVT not only necessitates viewpoint-agnostic texture hallucination but also strict structural synchronization between non-rigid human dynamics and background contexts under arbitrary, unconstrained camera movements. To tackle these challenges, we present TryOnCrafter, the first unified DiT-based framework specifically architected for the CaM-VVT task. Departing from implicit pixel-space manipulation, we introduce a Renderable 4D Try-on Proxy that explicitly decouples the human subject from the environment. This is achieved by distilling high-fidelity 2D try-on priors into a clothed 3DGS-based avatar, which is subsequently animated via SMPL-X sequences and metric-aligned into a reconstructed background point cloud. This proxy establishes a robust structural foundation with superior texture density and motion integrity. Our Proxy-Anchored Video DiT leverages this robust structural foundation as a primary geometric anchor, ensuring that the synthesized photorealistic videos are strictly constrained by prescribed trajectories and physically plausible deformations. Benefiting from the inherent editability of the 4D proxy, TryOnCrafter facilitates diverse downstream applications, including human relocalization, ``bullet time'' effects, and 360-degree orbital viewing.

alibaba-inc Alibaba-Inc
·
Jun 23 1

Anchored Decoding: Provably Reducing Copyright Risk for Any Language Model

Modern language models (LMs) tend to memorize portions of their training data and emit verbatim spans. When the underlying sources are sensitive or copyright-protected, such reproduction raises issues of consent and compensation for creators and compliance risks for developers. We propose Anchored Decoding, a plug-and-play inference-time method for suppressing verbatim copying: it enables decoding from any risky LM trained on mixed-license data by keeping generation in bounded proximity to a permissively trained safe LM. Anchored Decoding adaptively allocates a user-chosen information budget over the generation trajectory and enforces per-step constraints that yield a sequence-level guarantee, enabling a tunable risk-utility trade-off. To make Anchored Decoding practically useful, we introduce a new permissively trained safe model (TinyComma 1.8B), as well as Anchored_{Byte} Decoding, a byte-level variant of our method that enables cross-vocabulary fusion via the ByteSampler framework (Hayase et al., 2025). We evaluate our methods across six model pairs on long-form evaluations of copyright risk and utility. Anchored and Anchored_{Byte} Decoding define a new Pareto frontier, preserving near-original fluency and factuality while eliminating up to 75% of the measurable copying gap (averaged over six copying metrics) between the risky baseline and a safe reference, at a modest inference overhead.