Daily Papers

We ask whether pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) improve on established econometric benchmarks for forecasting realized volatility. Using the VOLARE dataset, we conduct the first systematic comparison of nine zero-shot TSFMs against eight econometric specifications, including the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) family, across 50 assets in equities, foreign exchange, and futures, and three forecast horizons, with formal pairwise and multi-model forecast-comparison tests. Foundation models do not deliver a uniform gain. Pooled losses favor them, but the advantage is concentrated in a few outlier assets; averaging each asset's loss ratio to a well-specified Log-HAR benchmark, so that no single asset dominates, only one small model, Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), beats the benchmark at every horizon, and by a narrow margin. The other foundation models do not improve on Log-HAR, and the econometric benchmarks remain competitive throughout. A Mincer--Zarnowitz recalibration, which removes level and scale bias from every forecast, shows that much of the short-horizon advantage reflects better-scaled forecasts rather than better prediction of volatility dynamics, and only at the monthly horizon does a genuine informational gain remain. Because this edge is thin and even TTM is not best on every asset, a simple equal-weight average of TTM and Log-HAR matches the best single model and enters the Model Confidence Set for 98 to 100\% of assets, more often than either component alone, so a forecaster need not identify the best model for each asset in advance. Our most durable finding is that performance varies so much across foundation-model architectures that choosing the right architecture matters more than the broader choice between foundation and econometric models.

Achieving true human-like ability to conduct a conversation remains an elusive goal for open-ended dialogue systems. We posit this is because extant approaches towards natural language generation (NLG) are typically construed as end-to-end architectures that do not adequately model human generation processes. To investigate, we decouple generation into two separate phases: planning and realization. In the planning phase, we train two planners to generate plans for response utterances. The realization phase uses response plans to produce an appropriate response. Through rigorous evaluations, both automated and human, we demonstrate that decoupling the process into planning and realization performs better than an end-to-end approach.

VOLARE (VOLatility Archive for Realized Estimates - https://volare.unime.it) is an open research infrastructure providing standardized realized volatility and covariance measures constructed from ultra-high-frequency financial data. The platform processes tick-level observations across equities, exchange rates, and futures using an asset-specific pipeline that addresses heterogeneous trading calendars, microstructure noise, and timestamp precision. For equities, price series are cleaned using a documented outlier detection procedure and sampled at regular intervals. VOLARE delivers a comprehensive set of realized estimators, including realized variance, range-based measures, bipower variation, semivariances, realized quarticity, realized kernels, and multivariate covariance measures, ensuring methodological consistency and cross-asset comparability. In addition to bulk dataset download, the platform supports interactive visualization and real-time estimation of established volatility models such as HAR and MEM specifications.

While multilingual language models like XLM-R have advanced multilingualism in NLP, they still perform poorly in extremely low-resource languages. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that modern LLMs such as LLaMA and Qwen support far fewer languages than XLM-R, making text generation models non-existent for many languages in the world. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel framework for adapting multilingual encoders to text generation in extremely low-resource languages. By reusing the weights between the encoder and the decoder, our framework allows the model to leverage the learned semantic space of the encoder, enabling efficient learning and effective generalization in low-resource languages. Applying this framework to four Chinese minority languages, we present XLM-SWCM, and demonstrate its superior performance on various downstream tasks even when compared with much larger models.

Data-driven learning is rapidly evolving and places a new perspective on realizing state-space dynamical systems. However, dynamical systems derived from nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) suffer from limitations in computational efficiency. Thus, this paper stems from data-driven learning to advance states of dynamical systems utilizing a structured neural network (StNN). The proposed learning technique also seeks to identify an optimal, low-complexity operator to solve dynamical systems, the so-called Hankel operator, derived from time-delay measurements. Thus, we utilize the StNN based on the Hankel operator to solve dynamical systems as an alternative to existing data-driven techniques. We show that the proposed StNN reduces the number of parameters and computational complexity compared with the conventional neural networks and also with the classical data-driven techniques, such as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) and Hankel Alternative view of Koopman (HAVOK), which is commonly known as delay-Dynamic Mode Decomposition(DMD) or Hankel-DMD. More specifically, we present numerical simulations to solve dynamical systems utilizing the StNN based on the Hankel operator beginning from the fundamental Lotka-Volterra model, where we compare the StNN with the LEarning Across Dynamical Systems (LEADS), and extend our analysis to highly nonlinear and chaotic Lorenz systems, comparing the StNN with conventional neural networks, SINDy, and HAVOK. Hence, we show that the proposed StNN paves the way for realizing state-space dynamical systems with a low-complexity learning algorithm, enabling prediction and understanding of future states.

We present a single-ended to balanced modified ladder-lattice filter topology, realized with periodically polarized piezoelectric (P3F) AlScN resonators, for single-ended to differential filtering applications. This filter topology eliminates the need for baluns or other passive components and can interface, for instance, directly between differential antennas and single-ended power and low noise amplifiers. Two filter designs operating at 19 GHz were implemented. The first design exhibited a minimum insertion loss of 1.3 dB, a 6.26% fractional 3-dB bandwidth, an average out-of-band rejection of 30 dB and occupied a 348 um x 476 um footprint, while the second higher-selectivity filter achieved 1.58 dB of minimum insertion loss, 5.11% fractional 3-dB bandwidth, 33 dB of average out-of-band rejection, and occupied a 392 um x 476 um footprint - Making them highly competitive for wireless communications filters. The working principle of the modified ladder-lattice topology is discussed, the design of the filters are presented, and the linearity of the filters is explored through intermodulation and power handling measurements.