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Aug 13

Adding Gradient Noise Improves Learning for Very Deep Networks

Deep feedforward and recurrent networks have achieved impressive results in many perception and language processing applications. This success is partially attributed to architectural innovations such as convolutional and long short-term memory networks. The main motivation for these architectural innovations is that they capture better domain knowledge, and importantly are easier to optimize than more basic architectures. Recently, more complex architectures such as Neural Turing Machines and Memory Networks have been proposed for tasks including question answering and general computation, creating a new set of optimization challenges. In this paper, we discuss a low-overhead and easy-to-implement technique of adding gradient noise which we find to be surprisingly effective when training these very deep architectures. The technique not only helps to avoid overfitting, but also can result in lower training loss. This method alone allows a fully-connected 20-layer deep network to be trained with standard gradient descent, even starting from a poor initialization. We see consistent improvements for many complex models, including a 72% relative reduction in error rate over a carefully-tuned baseline on a challenging question-answering task, and a doubling of the number of accurate binary multiplication models learned across 7,000 random restarts. We encourage further application of this technique to additional complex modern architectures.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 20, 2015

OmniAlpha: A Sequence-to-Sequence Framework for Unified Multi-Task RGBA Generation

Generative models have excelled in RGB synthesis, but real-world applications require RGBA manipulation. This has led to a fragmented landscape: specialized, single-task models handle alpha but lack versatility, while unified multi-task frameworks are confined to the RGB domain. To bridge this critical gap, we propose OmniAlpha, the first unified, multi-task generative framework for sequence-to-sequence RGBA image generation and editing. Its architecture features MSRoPE-BiL, a novel RoPE method with a bi-directionally extendable layer axis for its Diffusion Transformer (DiT) backbone, enabling the concurrent processing of multiple input and target RGBA layers. To power this framework, we introduce AlphaLayers, a new dataset of 1,000 high-quality, multi-layer triplets, built via a novel automated synthesis and filter pipeline. Jointly training OmniAlpha on this dataset across a comprehensive suite of 21 diverse tasks, extensive experiments demonstrate that our unified approach consistently outperforms strong, specialized baselines. Most notably, OmniAlpha achieves a dramatic 84.8% relative reduction in SAD for mask-free matting on AIM-500 and wins over 90% of human preferences in layer-conditioned completion. Our work proves that a unified, multi-task model can learn a superior shared representation for RGBA, paving the way for more powerful, layer-aware generative systems.

THU1911 Tsinghua University
·
Nov 25, 2025 2

Automatic channel selection and spatial feature integration for multi-channel speech recognition across various array topologies

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) has shown remarkable progress, yet it still faces challenges in real-world distant scenarios across various array topologies each with multiple recording devices. The focal point of the CHiME-7 Distant ASR task is to devise a unified system capable of generalizing various array topologies that have multiple recording devices and offering reliable recognition performance in real-world environments. Addressing this task, we introduce an ASR system that demonstrates exceptional performance across various array topologies. First of all, we propose two attention-based automatic channel selection modules to select the most advantageous subset of multi-channel signals from multiple recording devices for each utterance. Furthermore, we introduce inter-channel spatial features to augment the effectiveness of multi-frame cross-channel attention, aiding it in improving the capability of spatial information awareness. Finally, we propose a multi-layer convolution fusion module drawing inspiration from the U-Net architecture to integrate the multi-channel output into a single-channel output. Experimental results on the CHiME-7 corpus with oracle segmentation demonstrate that the improvements introduced in our proposed ASR system lead to a relative reduction of 40.1% in the Macro Diarization Attributed Word Error Rates (DA-WER) when compared to the baseline ASR system on the Eval sets.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 15, 2023

Think Right: Learning to Mitigate Under-Over Thinking via Adaptive, Attentive Compression

Recent thinking models solve complex reasoning tasks by scaling test-time compute, but this scaling must be allocated in line with task difficulty. On one hand, short reasoning (underthinking) leads to errors on harder problems that require extended reasoning steps; but, excessively long reasoning (overthinking) can be token-inefficient, generating unnecessary steps even after reaching a correct intermediate solution. We refer to this as under-adaptivity, where the model fails to modulate its response length appropriately given problems of varying difficulty. To address under-adaptivity and strike a balance between under- and overthinking, we propose TRAAC (Think Right with Adaptive, Attentive Compression), an online post-training RL method that leverages the model's self-attention over a long reasoning trajectory to identify important steps and prune redundant ones. TRAAC also estimates difficulty and incorporates it into training rewards, thereby learning to allocate reasoning budget commensurate with example difficulty. Our approach improves accuracy, reduces reasoning steps, and enables adaptive thinking compared to base models and other RL baselines. Across a variety of tasks (AIME, AMC, GPQA-D, BBEH), TRAAC (Qwen3-4B) achieves an average absolute accuracy gain of 8.4% with a relative reduction in reasoning length of 36.8% compared to the base model, and a 7.9% accuracy gain paired with a 29.4% length drop compared to the best RL baseline. TRAAC also shows strong generalization: although our models are trained on math datasets, they show accuracy and efficiency gains on out-of-distribution non-math datasets like GPQA-D, BBEH, and OptimalThinkingBench. Our analysis further verifies that TRAAC provides fine-grained adjustments to thinking budget based on difficulty and that a combination of task-difficulty calibration and attention-based compression yields gains across diverse tasks.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025 2

CharDiff: A Diffusion Model with Character-Level Guidance for License Plate Image Restoration

The significance of license plate image restoration goes beyond the preprocessing stage of License Plate Recognition (LPR) systems, as it also serves various purposes, including increasing evidential value, enhancing the clarity of visual interface, and facilitating further utilization of license plate images. We propose a novel diffusion-based framework with character-level guidance, CharDiff, which effectively restores and recognizes severely degraded license plate images captured under realistic conditions. CharDiff leverages fine-grained character-level priors extracted through external segmentation and Optical Character Recognition (OCR) modules tailored for low-quality license plate images. For precise and focused guidance, CharDiff incorporates a novel Character-guided Attention through Region-wise Masking (CHARM) module, which ensures that each character's guidance is restricted to its own region, thereby avoiding interference with other regions. In experiments, CharDiff significantly outperformed the baseline restoration models in both restoration quality and recognition accuracy, achieving a 28% relative reduction in CER on the Roboflow-LP dataset, compared to the best-performing baseline model. These results indicate that the structured character-guided conditioning effectively enhances the robustness of diffusion-based license plate restoration and recognition in practical deployment scenarios.

LLM-ForcedAligner: A Non-Autoregressive and Accurate LLM-Based Forced Aligner for Multilingual and Long-Form Speech

Forced alignment (FA) predicts start and end timestamps for words or characters in speech, but existing methods are language-specific and prone to cumulative temporal shifts. The multilingual speech understanding and long-sequence processing abilities of speech large language models (SLLMs) make them promising for FA in multilingual, crosslingual, and long-form speech settings. However, directly applying the next-token prediction paradigm of SLLMs to FA results in hallucinations and slow inference. To bridge the gap, we propose LLM-ForcedAligner, reformulating FA as a slot-filling paradigm: timestamps are treated as discrete indices, and special timestamp tokens are inserted as slots into the transcript. Conditioned on the speech embeddings and the transcript with slots, the SLLM directly predicts the time indices at slots. During training, causal attention masking with non-shifted input and label sequences allows each slot to predict its own timestamp index based on itself and preceding context, with loss computed only at slot positions. Dynamic slot insertion enables FA at arbitrary positions. Moreover, non-autoregressive inference is supported, avoiding hallucinations and improving speed. Experiments across multilingual, crosslingual, and long-form speech scenarios show that LLM-ForcedAligner achieves a 69%~78% relative reduction in accumulated averaging shift compared with prior methods. The checkpoint and inference code will be released later.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 26

Towards Safe Reasoning in Large Reasoning Models via Corrective Intervention

Although Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have progressed in solving complex problems, their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning often contains harmful content that can persist even when the final responses appear safe. We show that this issue still remains in existing methods which overlook the unique significance of safe reasoning, undermining their trustworthiness and posing potential risks in applications if unsafe reasoning is accessible for and exploited by malicious users. We therefore shift our focus to aligning the safety of reasoning itself in this paper and explore process supervision as the solution. However, simply rewarding safe reasoning proves inadequate due to low rollout diversity and limited training signals. To tackle this challenge, we first delve into the characteristics of safe reasoning and uncover several critical insights that 1) safe reasoning is often consolidated by a few critical steps of safety triggers; 2) compliance cues strongly correlate with unsafe continuations; and 3) corrective interventions reliably steer unsafe trajectories towards safer traces. Motivated by these, we propose Intervened Preference Optimization (IPO), an alignment method that enforces safe reasoning by substituting compliance steps with safety triggers and constructing pairs for preference learning with strong signals. Experiments on jailbreak and adversarial safety benchmarks demonstrate that IPO remarkably improves overall safety regarding both reasoning and responses, outperforming SFT-based and RL-based baselines with a relative reduction of over 30% in harmfulness, while preserving excellent performance across diverse reasoning tasks. The results highlight the importance of explicit alignment for reasoning and provide a practical path to safer LRMs.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 29, 2025

Two Views, One Truth: Spectral and Self-Supervised Features Fusion for Robust Speech Deepfake Detection

Recent advances in synthetic speech have made audio deepfakes increasingly realistic, posing significant security risks. Existing detection methods that rely on a single modality, either raw waveform embeddings or spectral based features, are vulnerable to non spoof disturbances and often overfit to known forgery algorithms, resulting in poor generalization to unseen attacks. To address these shortcomings, we investigate hybrid fusion frameworks that integrate self supervised learning (SSL) based representations with handcrafted spectral descriptors (MFCC , LFCC, CQCC). By aligning and combining complementary information across modalities, these fusion approaches capture subtle artifacts that single feature approaches typically overlook. We explore several fusion strategies, including simple concatenation, cross attention, mutual cross attention, and a learnable gating mechanism, to optimally blend SSL features with fine grained spectral cues. We evaluate our approach on four challenging public benchmarks and report generalization performance. All fusion variants consistently outperform an SSL only baseline, with the cross attention strategy achieving the best generalization with a 38% relative reduction in equal error rate (EER). These results confirm that joint modeling of waveform and spectral views produces robust, domain agnostic representations for audio deepfake detection.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 27, 2025

Improving Long Document Topic Segmentation Models With Enhanced Coherence Modeling

Topic segmentation is critical for obtaining structured documents and improving downstream tasks such as information retrieval. Due to its ability of automatically exploring clues of topic shift from abundant labeled data, recent supervised neural models have greatly promoted the development of long document topic segmentation, but leaving the deeper relationship between coherence and topic segmentation underexplored. Therefore, this paper enhances the ability of supervised models to capture coherence from both logical structure and semantic similarity perspectives to further improve the topic segmentation performance, proposing Topic-aware Sentence Structure Prediction (TSSP) and Contrastive Semantic Similarity Learning (CSSL). Specifically, the TSSP task is proposed to force the model to comprehend structural information by learning the original relations between adjacent sentences in a disarrayed document, which is constructed by jointly disrupting the original document at topic and sentence levels. Moreover, we utilize inter- and intra-topic information to construct contrastive samples and design the CSSL objective to ensure that the sentences representations in the same topic have higher similarity, while those in different topics are less similar. Extensive experiments show that the Longformer with our approach significantly outperforms old state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Our approach improve F_1 of old SOTA by 3.42 (73.74 -> 77.16) and reduces P_k by 1.11 points (15.0 -> 13.89) on WIKI-727K and achieves an average relative reduction of 4.3% on P_k on WikiSection. The average relative P_k drop of 8.38% on two out-of-domain datasets also demonstrates the robustness of our approach.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 18, 2023

NOVA: A Verification-Aware Agent Harness for Architecture Evolution in Industrial Recommender Systems

Industrial advertising recommender systems are continually improved through architecture modifications, yet production iteration remains expert-intensive because coordinated changes to model topology, feature configuration, and interaction modules must satisfy strict interface, resource, and serving constraints. AutoML is limited to predefined search spaces, while generic coding agents verify runnability rather than recommender-specific semantic validity. Executable candidates may therefore violate architectural contracts, while the lack of structured reuse of semantic diagnostics and evaluation outcomes can lead to repeated invalid or ineffective modifications. We present NOVA, a verification-aware agent harness that organizes production architecture modification as multi-round search over concrete implementations within a fixed evaluation budget. At each round, NOVA generates multiple candidates under production constraints, rejects semantic violations, and ranks the valid survivors for local testing and offline evaluation. Across rounds, trajectory memory synthesizes semantic diagnostics, local-test outcomes, and offline metric changes into modification directions and forbidden patterns that guide subsequent search. Under the same maximum offline-evaluation budget for automated methods, NOVA achieves the highest effective pass rate, reaching 53.3% on ScaleUp and 51.7% on Literature-to-Production tasks. In a production A/B test covering 5% of traffic in an advertising system serving over one billion users, the selected Literature-to-Production candidate yields GMV gains of +1.25%, +1.70%, and +2.02% across three major pCVR objectives, with corresponding relative reductions in absolute pCVR bias of 58.8%, 66.7%, and 37.3%, respectively.

  • 19 authors
·
Jul 27

ConvFormer: Parameter Reduction in Transformer Models for 3D Human Pose Estimation by Leveraging Dynamic Multi-Headed Convolutional Attention

Recently, fully-transformer architectures have replaced the defacto convolutional architecture for the 3D human pose estimation task. In this paper we propose \textit{ConvFormer}, a novel convolutional transformer that leverages a new \textit{dynamic multi-headed convolutional self-attention} mechanism for monocular 3D human pose estimation. We designed a spatial and temporal convolutional transformer to comprehensively model human joint relations within individual frames and globally across the motion sequence. Moreover, we introduce a novel notion of \textit{temporal joints profile} for our temporal ConvFormer that fuses complete temporal information immediately for a local neighborhood of joint features. We have quantitatively and qualitatively validated our method on three common benchmark datasets: Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP, and HumanEva. Extensive experiments have been conducted to identify the optimal hyper-parameter set. These experiments demonstrated that we achieved a significant parameter reduction relative to prior transformer models while attaining State-of-the-Art (SOTA) or near SOTA on all three datasets. Additionally, we achieved SOTA for Protocol III on H36M for both GT and CPN detection inputs. Finally, we obtained SOTA on all three metrics for the MPI-INF-3DHP dataset and for all three subjects on HumanEva under Protocol II.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 4, 2023

AquaJEPA: Action-Conditioned Multimodal Predictive Representations for Underwater Robot Dynamics

Underwater robots combine complementary sensors whose reliability changes abruptly with water visibility, viewpoint, and vehicle motion. We introduce AquaJEPA, an action-conditioned joint-embedding predictive model that fuses an RGB camera, forward-looking sonar, and proprioception with explicit sensor validity. It predicts a future latent target conditioned on eight-thruster commands and supplies velocity and sonar-profile predictions to a shared receding-horizon planner. We study the method in Stonefish against reactive, state-only, ordinary multimodal, supervised dynamics, and recurrent world-model baselines. We further isolate the EMA target, action margin, masks, and modality dropout. A preregistered 120-environment replication comprises five independent replicates of a grid crossing three unseen obstacle maps, four water-visibility coefficients, and nominal versus shifted dynamics, while intermittently removing DVL observations. In 120 fresh paired environments with scheduled DVL loss, AquaJEPA reaches 74 goals, versus 68 for both state-only and the recurrent world model, and attains the lowest mean final error (0.906 m). Paired final-error reductions relative to ordinary multimodal prediction, supervised dynamics, and the recurrent world model are 0.273 m (95% CI: 0.190-0.356), 0.364 m (0.260-0.468), and 0.106 m (0.025-0.187), respectively. AquaJEPA therefore achieves the best aggregate closed-loop performance and significantly outperforms three action-conditioned predictive baselines in paired final error; its advantage over state-only remains statistically unresolved.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 30

CHILDES-Aligned: A Curated Children's Speech Dataset via Multi-Model Timestamp Ensembling

CHILDES is a large-scale child speech corpus containing long-form recordings of naturalistic child-adult interactions, making it a valuable resource for studying child speech and language development. However, utterance-level timestamps provided in this corpus are often noisy, incomplete, or misaligned with the audio. As a result, utterances cannot always be reliably localized within long recordings, which limits the direct use of these data for training and evaluating speech models. In this work, we propose BEACON (Boundary Estimation via Alignment CONsensus), an ensemble timestamp-curation framework that refines utterance-level timestamps by aggregating knowledge from multiple off-the-shelf ASR models. Specifically, each model's word-level timestamp predictions are first aligned to provided human transcripts, and the final utterance time boundaries are determined by a consensus voting strategy. The framework is corpus-agnostic and applies to any long-form recording paired with a trusted transcript whose timestamps are unreliable or missing, offering a general recipe for timestamp curation. Leveraging this pipeline, we curate and release a 413-hour general-purpose child-speech dataset with corrected utterance-level timestamps, together with a 283-hour quality-controlled subset for ASR training. Fine-tuning on this subset yields up to an average 19.5% relative WER reduction on four out-of-domain child-speech benchmarks.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 3

NeST: Neuron Selective Tuning for LLM Safety

Safety alignment is essential for the responsible deployment of large language models (LLMs). Yet, existing approaches often rely on heavyweight fine-tuning that is costly to update, audit, and maintain across model families. Full fine-tuning incurs substantial computational and storage overhead, while parameter-efficient methods such as LoRA trade efficiency for inconsistent safety gains and sensitivity to design choices. Safety intervention mechanisms such as circuit breakers reduce unsafe outputs without modifying model weights, but do not directly shape or preserve the internal representations that govern safety behavior. These limitations hinder rapid and reliable safety updates, particularly in settings where models evolve frequently or must adapt to new policies and domains. We present NeST, a lightweight, structure-aware safety alignment framework that strengthens refusal behavior by selectively adapting a small subset of safety-relevant neurons while freezing the remainder of the model. NeST aligns parameter updates with the internal organization of safety behavior by clustering functionally coherent safety neurons and enforcing shared updates within each cluster, enabling targeted and stable safety adaptation without broad model modification or inference-time overhead. We benchmark NeST against three dominant baselines: full fine-tuning, LoRA-based fine-tuning, and circuit breakers across 10 open-weight LLMs spanning multiple model families and sizes. Across all evaluated models, NeST reduces the attack success rate from an average of 44.5% to 4.36%, corresponding to a 90.2% reduction in unsafe generations, while requiring only 0.44 million trainable parameters on average. This amounts to a 17,310x decrease in updated parameters compared to full fine-tuning and a 9.25x reduction relative to LoRA, while consistently achieving stronger safety performance for alignment.

VeCoR -- Velocity Contrastive Regularization for Flow Matching

Flow Matching (FM) has recently emerged as a principled and efficient alternative to diffusion models. Standard FM encourages the learned velocity field to follow a target direction; however, it may accumulate errors along the trajectory and drive samples off the data manifold, leading to perceptual degradation, especially in lightweight or low-step configurations. To enhance stability and generalization, we extend FM into a balanced attract-repel scheme that provides explicit guidance on both "where to go" and "where not to go." To be formal, we propose Velocity Contrastive Regularization (VeCoR), a complementary training scheme for flow-based generative modeling that augments the standard FM objective with contrastive, two-sided supervision. VeCoR not only aligns the predicted velocity with a stable reference direction (positive supervision) but also pushes it away from inconsistent, off-manifold directions (negative supervision). This contrastive formulation transforms FM from a purely attractive, one-sided objective into a two-sided training signal, regularizing trajectory evolution and improving perceptual fidelity across datasets and backbones. On ImageNet-1K 256times256, VeCoR yields 22\% and 35\% relative FID reductions on SiT-XL/2 and REPA-SiT-XL/2 backbones, respectively, and achieves further FID gains (32\% relative) on MS-COCO text-to-image generation, demonstrating consistent improvements in stability, convergence, and image quality, particularly in low-step and lightweight settings. Project page: https://p458732.github.io/VeCoR_Project_Page/

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 24, 2025

Retrofitting (Large) Language Models with Dynamic Tokenization

Current language models (LMs) use a fixed, static subword tokenizer. This choice, often taken for granted, typically results in degraded efficiency and capabilities in languages other than English, and makes it challenging to apply LMs to new domains or languages. To address these issues, we propose retrofitting LMs with dynamic tokenization: a way to dynamically decide on token boundaries based on the input text. For encoder-style models, we introduce a subword-merging algorithm inspired by byte-pair encoding (BPE), but at a batch level. We merge frequent subword sequences in a batch, then apply a pretrained embedding-prediction hypernetwork to compute the token embeddings on-the-fly. When applied with word-level boundaries, this on average reduces token sequence lengths by >20% across 14 languages on XNLI with XLM-R while degrading its task performance by less than 2%. For decoder-style models, we apply dynamic tokenization in two ways: 1) for prefilling, maintaining performance of Mistral-7B almost completely with up to 40% sequence reduction - relative to the word-level; and 2) via an approximate nearest neighbor index, achieving fast generation with a one million token vocabulary, demonstrating scalability to even larger, dynamic vocabularies. Overall, our findings show that dynamic tokenization substantially improves inference speed and promotes fairness across languages, making a leap towards overcoming the limitations of static tokenization and enabling more equitable and adaptable LMs.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 27, 2024

FireRedASR: Open-Source Industrial-Grade Mandarin Speech Recognition Models from Encoder-Decoder to LLM Integration

We present FireRedASR, a family of large-scale automatic speech recognition (ASR) models for Mandarin, designed to meet diverse requirements in superior performance and optimal efficiency across various applications. FireRedASR comprises two variants: FireRedASR-LLM: Designed to achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and to enable seamless end-to-end speech interaction. It adopts an Encoder-Adapter-LLM framework leveraging large language model (LLM) capabilities. On public Mandarin benchmarks, FireRedASR-LLM (8.3B parameters) achieves an average Character Error Rate (CER) of 3.05%, surpassing the latest SOTA of 3.33% with an 8.4% relative CER reduction (CERR). It demonstrates superior generalization capability over industrial-grade baselines, achieving 24%-40% CERR in multi-source Mandarin ASR scenarios such as video, live, and intelligent assistant. FireRedASR-AED: Designed to balance high performance and computational efficiency and to serve as an effective speech representation module in LLM-based speech models. It utilizes an Attention-based Encoder-Decoder (AED) architecture. On public Mandarin benchmarks, FireRedASR-AED (1.1B parameters) achieves an average CER of 3.18%, slightly worse than FireRedASR-LLM but still outperforming the latest SOTA model with over 12B parameters. It offers a more compact size, making it suitable for resource-constrained applications. Moreover, both models exhibit competitive results on Chinese dialects and English speech benchmarks and excel in singing lyrics recognition. To advance research in speech processing, we release our models and inference code at https://github.com/FireRedTeam/FireRedASR.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 24, 2025

W2v-BERT: Combining Contrastive Learning and Masked Language Modeling for Self-Supervised Speech Pre-Training

Motivated by the success of masked language modeling~(MLM) in pre-training natural language processing models, we propose w2v-BERT that explores MLM for self-supervised speech representation learning. w2v-BERT is a framework that combines contrastive learning and MLM, where the former trains the model to discretize input continuous speech signals into a finite set of discriminative speech tokens, and the latter trains the model to learn contextualized speech representations via solving a masked prediction task consuming the discretized tokens. In contrast to existing MLM-based speech pre-training frameworks such as HuBERT, which relies on an iterative re-clustering and re-training process, or vq-wav2vec, which concatenates two separately trained modules, w2v-BERT can be optimized in an end-to-end fashion by solving the two self-supervised tasks~(the contrastive task and MLM) simultaneously. Our experiments show that w2v-BERT achieves competitive results compared to current state-of-the-art pre-trained models on the LibriSpeech benchmarks when using the Libri-Light~60k corpus as the unsupervised data. In particular, when compared to published models such as conformer-based wav2vec~2.0 and HuBERT, our model shows~5\% to~10\% relative WER reduction on the test-clean and test-other subsets. When applied to the Google's Voice Search traffic dataset, w2v-BERT outperforms our internal conformer-based wav2vec~2.0 by more than~30\% relatively.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 7, 2021

Modeling Information Blackouts in Missing Not-At-Random Time Series Data

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 5 1

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of AI-Driven Traffic Flow Patterns and Land Use Interaction: A GeoAI-Based Analysis of Multimodal Urban Mobility

Urban traffic flow is governed by the complex, nonlinear interaction between land use configuration and spatiotemporally heterogeneous mobility demand. Conventional global regression and time-series models cannot simultaneously capture these multi-scale dynamics across multiple travel modes. This study proposes a GeoAI Hybrid analytical framework that sequentially integrates Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), Random Forest (RF), and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (ST-GCN) to model the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of traffic flow patterns and their interaction with land use across three mobility modes: motor vehicle, public transit, and active transport. Applying the framework to an empirically calibrated dataset of 350 traffic analysis zones across six cities spanning two contrasting urban morphologies, four key findings emerge: (i) the GeoAI Hybrid achieves a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.119 and an R^2 of 0.891, outperforming all benchmarks by 23-62%; (ii) SHAP analysis identifies land use mix as the strongest predictor for motor vehicle flows and transit stop density as the strongest predictor for public transit; (iii) DBSCAN clustering identifies five functionally distinct urban traffic typologies with a silhouette score of 0.71, and GeoAI Hybrid residuals exhibit Moran's I=0.218 (p<0.001), a 72% reduction relative to OLS baselines; and (iv) cross-city transfer experiments reveal moderate within-cluster transferability (R^2>=0.78) and limited cross-cluster generalisability, underscoring the primacy of urban morphological context. The framework offers planners and transportation engineers an interpretable, scalable toolkit for evidence-based multimodal mobility management and land use policy design.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 5 2

Depth Anything in $360^\circ$: Towards Scale Invariance in the Wild

Panoramic depth estimation provides a comprehensive solution for capturing complete 360^circ environmental structural information, offering significant benefits for robotics and AR/VR applications. However, while extensively studied in indoor settings, its zero-shot generalization to open-world domains lags far behind perspective images, which benefit from abundant training data. This disparity makes transferring capabilities from the perspective domain an attractive solution. To bridge this gap, we present Depth Anything in 360^circ (DA360), a panoramic-adapted version of Depth Anything V2. Our key innovation involves learning a shift parameter from the ViT backbone, transforming the model's scale- and shift-invariant output into a scale-invariant estimate that directly yields well-formed 3D point clouds. This is complemented by integrating circular padding into the DPT decoder to eliminate seam artifacts, ensuring spatially coherent depth maps that respect spherical continuity. Evaluated on standard indoor benchmarks and our newly curated outdoor dataset, Metropolis, DA360 shows substantial gains over its base model, achieving over 50\% and 10\% relative depth error reduction on indoor and outdoor benchmarks, respectively. Furthermore, DA360 significantly outperforms robust panoramic depth estimation methods, achieving about 30\% relative error improvement compared to PanDA across all three test datasets and establishing new state-of-the-art performance for zero-shot panoramic depth estimation.

Insta360 Insta360
·
Dec 28, 2025

Optimizing Anytime Reasoning via Budget Relative Policy Optimization

Scaling test-time compute is crucial for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Existing approaches typically employ reinforcement learning (RL) to maximize a verifiable reward obtained at the end of reasoning traces. However, such methods optimize only the final performance under a large and fixed token budget, which hinders efficiency in both training and deployment. In this work, we present a novel framework, AnytimeReasoner, to optimize anytime reasoning performance, which aims to improve token efficiency and the flexibility of reasoning under varying token budget constraints. To achieve this, we truncate the complete thinking process to fit within sampled token budgets from a prior distribution, compelling the model to summarize the optimal answer for each truncated thinking for verification. This introduces verifiable dense rewards into the reasoning process, facilitating more effective credit assignment in RL optimization. We then optimize the thinking and summary policies in a decoupled manner to maximize the cumulative reward. Additionally, we introduce a novel variance reduction technique, Budget Relative Policy Optimization (BRPO), to enhance the robustness and efficiency of the learning process when reinforcing the thinking policy. Empirical results in mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms GRPO across all thinking budgets under various prior distributions, enhancing both training and token efficiency.

  • 6 authors
·
May 19, 2025 2

CoLoR-Filter: Conditional Loss Reduction Filtering for Targeted Language Model Pre-training

Selecting high-quality data for pre-training is crucial in shaping the downstream task performance of language models. A major challenge lies in identifying this optimal subset, a problem generally considered intractable, thus necessitating scalable and effective heuristics. In this work, we propose a data selection method, CoLoR-Filter (Conditional Loss Reduction Filtering), which leverages an empirical Bayes-inspired approach to derive a simple and computationally efficient selection criterion based on the relative loss values of two auxiliary models. In addition to the modeling rationale, we evaluate CoLoR-Filter empirically on two language modeling tasks: (1) selecting data from C4 for domain adaptation to evaluation on Books and (2) selecting data from C4 for a suite of downstream multiple-choice question answering tasks. We demonstrate favorable scaling both as we subselect more aggressively and using small auxiliary models to select data for large target models. As one headline result, CoLoR-Filter data selected using a pair of 150m parameter auxiliary models can train a 1.2b parameter target model to match a 1.2b parameter model trained on 25b randomly selected tokens with 25x less data for Books and 11x less data for the downstream tasks. Code: https://github.com/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filter-olmo Filtered data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filtered-c4

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 15, 2024 1

GRPO-VPS: Enhancing Group Relative Policy Optimization with Verifiable Process Supervision for Effective Reasoning

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has advanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging direct outcome verification instead of learned reward models. Building on this paradigm, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) eliminates the need for critic models but suffers from indiscriminate credit assignment for intermediate steps, which limits its ability to identify effective reasoning strategies and incurs overthinking. In this work, we introduce a model-free and verifiable process supervision via probing the model's belief in the correct answer throughout its reasoning trajectory. By segmenting the generation into discrete steps and tracking the conditional probability of the correct answer appended at each segment boundary, we efficiently compute interpretable segment-wise progress measurements to refine GRPO's trajectory-level feedback. This approach enables more targeted and sample-efficient policy updates, while avoiding the need for intermediate supervision derived from costly Monte Carlo rollouts or auxiliary models. Experiments on mathematical and general-domain benchmarks show consistent gains over GRPO across diverse models: up to 2.6-point accuracy improvements and 13.7% reasoning-length reductions on math tasks, and up to 2.4 points and 4% on general-domain tasks, demonstrating strong generalization.

  • 11 authors
·
Apr 21

BdSLW401: Transformer-Based Word-Level Bangla Sign Language Recognition Using Relative Quantization Encoding (RQE)

Sign language recognition (SLR) for low-resource languages like Bangla suffers from signer variability, viewpoint variations, and limited annotated datasets. In this paper, we present BdSLW401, a large-scale, multi-view, word-level Bangla Sign Language (BdSL) dataset with 401 signs and 102,176 video samples from 18 signers in front and lateral views. To improve transformer-based SLR, we introduce Relative Quantization Encoding (RQE), a structured embedding approach anchoring landmarks to physiological reference points and quantize motion trajectories. RQE improves attention allocation by decreasing spatial variability, resulting in 44.3% WER reduction in WLASL100, 21.0% in SignBD-200, and significant gains in BdSLW60 and SignBD-90. However, fixed quantization becomes insufficient on large-scale datasets (e.g., WLASL2000), indicating the need for adaptive encoding strategies. Further, RQE-SF, an extended variant that stabilizes shoulder landmarks, achieves improvements in pose consistency at the cost of small trade-offs in lateral view recognition. The attention graphs prove that RQE improves model interpretability by focusing on the major articulatory features (fingers, wrists) and the more distinctive frames instead of global pose changes. Introducing BdSLW401 and demonstrating the effectiveness of RQE-enhanced structured embeddings, this work advances transformer-based SLR for low-resource languages and sets a benchmark for future research in this area.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 4, 2025

PalmClaw: A Native On-Device Agent Framework for Mobile Phones

Large Language Model (LLM) agents have moved beyond generating responses to executing multi-step tasks by calling tools, observing the results, and iteratively deciding the next action. Most agent systems run on desktops or servers, which support tool use and task automation. Mobile devices are also important agent environments because they are widely accessible and contain users' data, sensors, and daily-use applications. Existing mobile agents mainly operate smartphones through graphical user interface (GUI) actions such as tapping, swiping, and typing, which often form long, interface-dependent sequences, cannot directly access device capabilities, and make execution boundaries difficult to define. We present PalmClaw, an open-source agent framework that runs natively on mobile phones and manages the sessions, memory, skills, tools, and agent loop directly on the device. PalmClaw exposes device capabilities as device tools with explicit arguments, structured results, and clearly defined execution boundaries. This design enables agents to use mobile capabilities directly while keeping each action explicit and controlled. Experiments show an 11.5\% relative improvement in task success and a 94.9\% reduction in completion time over the strongest baseline, with lower setup burden and traces illustrating how execution boundaries are applied. Code is available at https://github.com/ModalityDance/PalmClaw.

CubicQuant: Parametric Non-Uniform Codebooks for High-Throughput LLM Inference with 1-8-Bit Weights

Weight quantization for large-language-model inference must balance adaptive reconstruction levels with representations regular enough for efficient GPU execution. Uniform integers constrain each group to a linear grid. Low-bit floating-point formats use a fixed exponent-mantissa structure, while learned codebooks gain flexibility at the cost of irregular decoding and additional metadata. We introduce CubicQuant, a parametric non-uniform scalar format that preserves a dense integer code stream while adapting reconstruction levels within each weight group. A monotonic cubic curve, specified by two shape parameters and one scale, maps uniformly spaced magnitude codes to non-uniform levels. The family spans 1-8-bit weight payloads, contains symmetric uniform integer quantization as an exact special case, and has effective width B + 64/G bits per weight for payload width B and group size G. We derive population distortion under Uniform, Gaussian, and Laplace distributions, formulate continuous and Dynamic-A8-carrier-aware fitting objectives, and describe direct packed-weight GPU execution. For finite groups of G=128 with 15,360 samples per distribution, W4 CubicQuant reduced reconstruction RMSE relative to optimally clipped four-bit uniform integer quantization by 3.90% on Uniform, 13.49% on Gaussian, and 28.14% on Laplace samples. Relative to the best enumerated four-bit finite floating-point format, the reductions were 3.90%, 9.44%, and 6.27%. Preliminary H200 kernel measurements show a workload-dependent crossover: model-dtype execution is faster for narrow GEMV, while Dynamic A8 becomes favorable as row count grows. The results establish the format's representational promise and direct executability; downstream model quality and cross-device end-to-end performance remain open evaluation questions.

  • 1 authors
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Aug 6

The Extrapolation Cliff in On-Policy Distillation of Near-Deterministic Structured Outputs

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

LiZAD: A Lightweight Zero-Shot Anomaly Detection Framework for Industrial Manufacturing

In modern high-throughput industrial production lines, product configurations and visual characteristics frequently change, making it impractical to collect and annotate data for every new scenario. This dynamic setting makes Zero-Shot Anomaly Detection (ZSAD) particularly suitable, as it enables defect detection without requiring training on target-specific samples. Although recent ZSAD approaches show promising results, they are computationally intensive and thus unsuitable for deployment on resource-constrained devices. We propose LiZAD: a lightweight framework designed for real-time ZSAD specifically tailored for use on edge devices. The proposed approach pairs the dense and spatially aware visual features of DINOv3, crucial for precise pixel-level localization, with the highly computationally efficient text embeddings of MobileCLIP2. These features are then mapped into a shared latent space via low-memory trainable projection heads. Compared to six state-of-the-art ZSAD models, LiZAD achieves an average memory reduction of 61.5%, a parameter reduction of 74.6%, and a speedup of 3.02x in terms of latency. Despite substantial reductions in computational and memory costs, our approach maintains competitive anomaly detection performance, dropping the average P-AUROC by just 6.4% relative to the best state-of-the-art model across the VisA, BTAD, MPDD, and MVTec-AD datasets. Finally, it is successfully deployed on the NVIDIA Jetson NX and Jetson AGX edge devices and tested on the real production line of the Industrial Computer Engineering Laboratory (ICE Lab) at the University of Verona. The code is available at https://github.com/intelligolabs/LiZAD.

  • 6 authors
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Jul 1

Scalable Graph Attention-based Instance Selection via Mini-Batch Sampling and Hierarchical Hashing

Instance selection (IS) is important in machine learning for reducing dataset size while keeping key characteristics. Current IS methods often struggle with capturing complex relationships in high-dimensional spaces and scale with large datasets. This paper introduces a graph attention-based instance selection (GAIS) method that uses attention mechanisms to identify informative instances through their structural relationships in graph representations. We present two approaches for scalable graph construction: a distance-based mini-batch sampling technique that reduces computation through strategic batch processing, and a hierarchical hashing approach that allows for efficient similarity computation through random projections. The mini-batch approach keeps class distributions through stratified sampling, while the hierarchical hashing method captures relationships at multiple granularities through single-level, multi-level, and multi-view variants. Experiments across 39 datasets show that GAIS achieves reduction rates above 96\% while maintaining or improving model performance relative to state-of-the-art IS methods. The findings shows that the distance-based mini-batch approach offers an optimal balance of efficiency and effectiveness for large-scale datasets, while multi-view variants provide superior performance for complex, high-dimensional data, demonstrating that attention-based importance scoring can effectively identify instances crucial for maintaining decision boundaries without requiring exhaustive pairwise comparisons.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 27, 2025

Enhanced Climbing Image Nudged Elastic Band method with Hessian Eigenmode Alignment

Accurate determination of transition states is central to an understanding of reaction kinetics. Double-endpoint methods where both initial and final states are specified, such as the climbing image nudged elastic band (CI-NEB), identify the minimum energy path between the two and thereby the saddle point on the energy surface that is relevant for the given transition, thus providing an estimate of the transition state within the harmonic approximation of transition state theory. Such calculations can, however, incur high computational costs and may suffer stagnation on exceptionally flat or rough energy surfaces. Conversely, methods that only require specification of an initial set of atomic coordinates, such as the minimum mode following (MMF) method, offer efficiency but can converge on saddle points that are not relevant for transition of interest. Here, we present an adaptive hybrid algorithm that integrates the CI-NEB with the MMF method so as to get faster convergence to the relevant saddle point. The method is benchmarked for the Baker-Chan (BC) saddle point test set using the PET-MAD machine-learned potential as well as 59 transitions of a heptamer island on Pt(111) from the OptBench benchmark set. A Bayesian analysis of the performance shows a reduction in energy and force calculations of 57% [95% CrI: -64%, -50%] relative to CI-NEB for the BC set, while a 31% mean reduction is found for the transitions of the heptamer island. These results establish this hybrid method as a highly effective tool for high-throughput automated chemical discovery of atomic rearrangements.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 6 1

ETS: Efficient Tree Search for Inference-Time Scaling

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a new axis along which to improve model accuracy, where additional computation is used at inference time to allow the model to think longer for more challenging problems. One promising approach for test-time compute scaling is search against a process reward model, where a model generates multiple potential candidates at each step of the search, and these partial trajectories are then scored by a separate reward model in order to guide the search process. The diversity of trajectories in the tree search process affects the accuracy of the search, since increasing diversity promotes more exploration. However, this diversity comes at a cost, as divergent trajectories have less KV sharing, which means they consume more memory and slow down the search process. Previous search methods either do not perform sufficient exploration, or else explore diverse trajectories but have high latency. We address this challenge by proposing Efficient Tree Search (ETS), which promotes KV sharing by pruning redundant trajectories while maintaining necessary diverse trajectories. ETS incorporates a linear programming cost model to promote KV cache sharing by penalizing the number of nodes retained, while incorporating a semantic coverage term into the cost model to ensure that we retain trajectories which are semantically different. We demonstrate how ETS can achieve 1.8times reduction in average KV cache size during the search process, leading to 1.4times increased throughput relative to prior state-of-the-art methods, with minimal accuracy degradation and without requiring any custom kernel implementation. Code is available at: https://github.com/SqueezeAILab/ETS.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 19, 2025

Efficient Maximum Fair Clique Search over Large Networks

Mining cohesive subgraphs in attributed graphs is an essential problem in the domain of graph data analysis. The integration of fairness considerations significantly fuels interest in models and algorithms for mining fairness-aware cohesive subgraphs. Notably, the relative fair clique emerges as a robust model, ensuring not only comprehensive attribute coverage but also greater flexibility in distributing attribute vertices. Motivated by the strength of this model, we for the first time pioneer an investigation into the identification of the maximum relative fair clique in large-scale graphs. We introduce a novel concept of colorful support, which serves as the foundation for two innovative graph reduction techniques. These techniques effectively narrow the graph's size by iteratively removing edges that do not belong to relative fair cliques. Furthermore, a series of upper bounds of the maximum relative fair clique size is proposed by incorporating consideration of vertex attributes and colors. The pruning techniques derived from these upper bounds can significantly trim unnecessary search space during the branch-and-bound procedure. Adding to this, we present a heuristic algorithm with a linear time complexity, employing both a degree-based greedy strategy and a colored degree-based greedy strategy to identify a larger relative fair clique. This heuristic algorithm can serve a dual purpose by aiding in branch pruning, thereby enhancing overall search efficiency. Extensive experiments conducted on six real-life datasets demonstrate the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness of our algorithms.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 7, 2023

Hierarchical Cooperative MARL for Joint Downlink PRB and Power Allocation in a 5G System

Efficient downlink radio resource management in 5G requires jointly optimizing user scheduling and transmit-power allocation under time-varying wireless conditions. This is challenging in OFDMA systems because PRB assignment is combinatorial, power allocation is continuous, and performance depends on channel evolution, link adaptation, and long-term fairness. We propose a hierarchical cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning framework with staged curriculum training for joint downlink PRB and power allocation in a physically grounded 5G environment. System-level simulation is implemented in Sionna, while Sionna RT supports wireless scene construction and mobility-aware ray-traced channel generation. The control task is decomposed into two sequential stages: a PRB agent learns user-level resource shares, which are converted to exact PRB assignments by a deterministic channel-aware quota resolver, and a power agent distributes the base-station power budget across users and their assigned PRB-symbol resources. The framework operates in a cross-layer loop with adaptive modulation and coding, HARQ feedback, outer-loop link adaptation, and a fairness-aware reward based on smoothed throughput and Jain's fairness index. Training stability is improved through a three-phase curriculum for PRB allocation, power control, and joint fine-tuning. Under matched channel realizations, we compare against a PF scheduler with equal-power transmission and two ablations isolating the learned PRB and power-control components. Results show that both learned components improve throughput distribution relative to PF, while the full PRB and power controller achieves the largest cell-throughput gain with only a modest reduction in Jain's fairness index.

  • 4 authors
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May 3

Beyond Pairwise Connections: Extracting High-Order Functional Brain Network Structures under Global Constraints

Functional brain network (FBN) modeling often relies on local pairwise interactions, whose limitation in capturing high-order dependencies is theoretically analyzed in this paper. Meanwhile, the computational burden and heuristic nature of current hypergraph modeling approaches hinder end-to-end learning of FBN structures directly from data distributions. To address this, we propose to extract high-order FBN structures under global constraints, and implement this as a Global Constraints oriented Multi-resolution (GCM) FBN structure learning framework. It incorporates 4 types of global constraint (signal synchronization, subject identity, expected edge numbers, and data labels) to enable learning FBN structures for 4 distinct levels (sample/subject/group/project) of modeling resolution. Experimental results demonstrate that GCM achieves up to a 30.6% improvement in relative accuracy and a 96.3% reduction in computational time across 5 datasets and 2 task settings, compared to 9 baselines and 10 state-of-the-art methods. Extensive experiments validate the contributions of individual components and highlight the interpretability of GCM. This work offers a novel perspective on FBN structure learning and provides a foundation for interdisciplinary applications in cognitive neuroscience. Code is publicly available on https://github.com/lzhan94swu/GCM.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 10, 2025

PredFormer: Transformers Are Effective Spatial-Temporal Predictive Learners

Spatiotemporal predictive learning methods generally fall into two categories: recurrent-based approaches, which face challenges in parallelization and performance, and recurrent-free methods, which employ convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as encoder-decoder architectures. These methods benefit from strong inductive biases but often at the expense of scalability and generalization. This paper proposes PredFormer, a pure transformer-based framework for spatiotemporal predictive learning. Motivated by the Vision Transformers (ViT) design, PredFormer leverages carefully designed Gated Transformer blocks, following a comprehensive analysis of 3D attention mechanisms, including full-, factorized-, and interleaved-spatial-temporal attention. With its recurrent-free, transformer-based design, PredFormer is both simple and efficient, significantly outperforming previous methods by large margins. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that PredFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance. On Moving MNIST, PredFormer achieves a 51.3% reduction in MSE relative to SimVP. For TaxiBJ, the model decreases MSE by 33.1% and boosts FPS from 533 to 2364. Additionally, on WeatherBench, it reduces MSE by 11.1% while enhancing FPS from 196 to 404. These performance gains in both accuracy and efficiency demonstrate PredFormer's potential for real-world applications. The source code will be released at https://github.com/yyyujintang/PredFormer .

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 6, 2024

Applying the Polynomial Maximization Method to Estimate ARIMA Models with Asymmetric Non-Gaussian Innovations

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 10, 2025 1