Daily Papers

Typed-decision models score options that the caller supplies at request time, so their accuracy depends on label wording that the model's developer does not control. We compare two releases of a 307M-parameter multilingual cross-encoder, Ru-Jev, trained on thirteen Russian-language tasks; the later release adds an augmentation that presents labels in several surface forms. Holding questions fixed and varying only how eighteen routing labels are worded, we evaluate ten label vocabularies, produced by three separate processes and checked for overlap with the training data, with five candidates per question and, for eight of them, also with eighteen. On held-out vocabularies made of ordinary or borrowed words (English-derived jargon, office slang, department names), the augmented release is more accurate in every setting, by up to 0.24. Eleven of these fourteen gains survive a Holm correction (slang with eighteen candidates and descriptive sentences with five do not), and for jargon on all labels the label-level interval excludes zero in both settings. On abbreviations and opaque codes it gives no usable gain: on abbreviations it is not better, and worse on the clean slice, and on opaque codes both releases stay at or below chance once labels related to training options are removed. In most cells where accuracy rises, the risk-coverage area falls, but with eighteen candidates confident errors rise on jargon and slang. On two datasets neither release saw, accuracy moves by -8.4 and +5.6 points. We also report four evaluation hazards from comparing the two releases.

Selective Classification, wherein models can reject low-confidence predictions, promises reliable translation of machine-learning based classification systems to real-world scenarios such as clinical diagnostics. While current evaluation of these systems typically assumes fixed working points based on pre-defined rejection thresholds, methodological progress requires benchmarking the general performance of systems akin to the AUROC in standard classification. In this work, we define 5 requirements for multi-threshold metrics in selective classification regarding task alignment, interpretability, and flexibility, and show how current approaches fail to meet them. We propose the Area under the Generalized Risk Coverage curve (AUGRC), which meets all requirements and can be directly interpreted as the average risk of undetected failures. We empirically demonstrate the relevance of AUGRC on a comprehensive benchmark spanning 6 data sets and 13 confidence scoring functions. We find that the proposed metric substantially changes metric rankings on 5 out of the 6 data sets.

Long-tailed chest X-ray classification requires visual representations that capture both common abnormalities and subtle, infrequent findings. We propose Med-AR-8B and Med-AR-2B, two radiology-native autoregressive vision-language models pretrained with structured reports, abnormality-focused text, and region annotations. We evaluate the transfer of their visual encoders to multi-label classification against contrastive, self-supervised, and supervised pretrained encoders, including Med-CLIP, CheXFound, EVA-Base, ARK, and BioViL-T, using a common ML-Decoder classification head. To assess fine-grained recognition, we also construct LLM-expanded, report-derived label sets for MIMIC-CXR and CheXpert. Across PadChest, MIMIC-CXR, and CheXpert, Med-AR-8B outperforms Med-CLIP in mean AUROC and AUPRC for head, medium, and tail findings. On MIMIC-CXR, it increases tail-label mean AUPRC from 0.1033 to 0.1441. Med-AR-2B achieves the strongest discrimination results on PadChest. Across the broader encoder comparison, a Med-AR variant achieves the highest mean AUROC and AUPRC in every reported prevalence group on each public dataset. Both Med-AR variants also achieve lower excess area under the risk-coverage curve than Med-CLIP on all three public datasets, indicating improved selective-prediction performance under the evaluated protocol. Internal results are metric-dependent, with Med-CLIP retaining advantages in overall and tail AUPRC and in selective prediction. These findings establish Med-AR as a strong pretraining recipe for long-tailed chest X-ray classification on the evaluated public benchmarks and demonstrate the value of assessing discrimination and selective prediction together.

HakemBench is a Turkish benchmark of typed decisions, in which the model under test reads a text, a question and a fixed set of options and returns a probability for every option. Version 1.0 is released fully open under CC BY 4.0, with 2,346 items and 4,275 choice, yes/no and score questions in seven tracks (fact-check triage, education, guardrails, legal routing, moderation, spam and phishing, and customer support). One harness scores decision quality (macro F1), calibration (from the normalised Brier score) and selective automation (from the normalised area under the generalised risk-coverage curve), combines them by a geometric mean and reports intervals from 2,000 bootstrap draws; probes for option order, paraphrase, English translation and substituted names are reported alongside. Most gold labels come from blind passes of one AI model family compared with the votes of a panel of large language models from other model families; they are not human-verified. On a board of 16 rows the leader scores a composite of 0.888 and the lab's own model is 7th at 0.660. Its numbers are not blind. Earlier runs' test results shaped its training data, so its guardrail, moderation and customer support numbers are flagged; with every model scored on the other four tracks only, its composite is 0.678, 6th of 16.

Agentic AI is advancing rapidly, yet truly autonomous medical-imaging triage, where a system decides when to stop, escalate, or defer under real constraints, remains relatively underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce AT-CXR, an uncertainty-aware agent for chest X-rays. The system estimates per-case confidence and distributional fit, then follows a stepwise policy to issue an automated decision or abstain with a suggested label for human intervention. We evaluate two router designs that share the same inputs and actions: a deterministic rule-based router and an LLM-decided router. Across five-fold evaluation on a balanced subset of NIH ChestX-ray14 dataset, both variants outperform strong zero-shot vision-language models and state-of-the-art supervised classifiers, achieving higher full-coverage accuracy and superior selective-prediction performance, evidenced by a lower area under the risk-coverage curve (AURC) and a lower error rate at high coverage, while operating with lower latency that meets practical clinical constraints. The two routers provide complementary operating points, enabling deployments to prioritize maximal throughput or maximal accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/XLIAaron/uncertainty-aware-cxr-agent.

The rapid advancement and deployment of AI systems have created an urgent need for standard safety-evaluation frameworks. This paper introduces AILuminate v1.0, the first comprehensive industry-standard benchmark for assessing AI-product risk and reliability. Its development employed an open process that included participants from multiple fields. The benchmark evaluates an AI system's resistance to prompts designed to elicit dangerous, illegal, or undesirable behavior in 12 hazard categories, including violent crimes, nonviolent crimes, sex-related crimes, child sexual exploitation, indiscriminate weapons, suicide and self-harm, intellectual property, privacy, defamation, hate, sexual content, and specialized advice (election, financial, health, legal). Our method incorporates a complete assessment standard, extensive prompt datasets, a novel evaluation framework, a grading and reporting system, and the technical as well as organizational infrastructure for long-term support and evolution. In particular, the benchmark employs an understandable five-tier grading scale (Poor to Excellent) and incorporates an innovative entropy-based system-response evaluation. In addition to unveiling the benchmark, this report also identifies limitations of our method and of building safety benchmarks generally, including evaluator uncertainty and the constraints of single-turn interactions. This work represents a crucial step toward establishing global standards for AI risk and reliability evaluation while acknowledging the need for continued development in areas such as multiturn interactions, multimodal understanding, coverage of additional languages, and emerging hazard categories. Our findings provide valuable insights for model developers, system integrators, and policymakers working to promote safer AI deployment.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

Coverage path planning (CPP) is the problem of finding a path that covers the entire free space of a confined area, with applications ranging from robotic lawn mowing to search-and-rescue. When the environment is unknown, the path needs to be planned online while mapping the environment, which cannot be addressed by offline planning methods that do not allow for a flexible path space. We investigate how suitable reinforcement learning is for this challenging problem, and analyze the involved components required to efficiently learn coverage paths, such as action space, input feature representation, neural network architecture, and reward function. We propose a computationally feasible egocentric map representation based on frontiers, and a novel reward term based on total variation to promote complete coverage. Through extensive experiments, we show that our approach surpasses the performance of both previous RL-based approaches and highly specialized methods across multiple CPP variations.

A treatment may affect some individuals while leaving others unaffected. We study the reach of treatment effects by asking how large an unaffected covariate region could be. We develop efficient local randomization tests over nearest-neighbour regions to construct a finite-sample valid upper confidence bound for the size of the largest zero-effect region. A small bound provides evidence that treatment effects extend broadly across covariate values by ruling out large zero-effect regions. Under a general outcome model, we characterize how the size of the bound depends on the number of affected units, the size of their treatment effects, and the geometry of the true zero-effect set. We show that, when region size is measured as a sample fraction, the excess of the upper confidence bound over the true size decreases to zero at a minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations assess the coverage, power and computational efficiency of our method. Applications to voter-turnout, HIV clinical-trial, and AI-assisted writing data illustrate how our method rules out large zero-effect regions across the covariates of interest.

Generating corner-case scenarios with appropriate adversity in a simulation environment is critical for testing an autonomous vehicle (AV) software stack's safety performance before deployment. Existing autonomous-driving scenario generators can enforce specific behavior, adversity, or feasibility conditions, but they provide limited control over how extreme a generated scenario is relative to plausible futures in the same traffic context. This study represents the adversity of a generated scenario as its percentile in the conditional distribution of future risk given the observed history. This view supports calibrated answers to two questions: how "corner" a generated corner-case scenario is and how its "cornerness" can be fine-tuned. To this end, we formulate history-conditioned risk-percentile requests and learn a reference risk distribution that maps each requested percentile to a physical risk target. We then use a percentile-conditioned joint diffusion model with sampling-time risk guidance to generate multi-agent futures, together with a reference-based criterion for evaluating percentile realization. Experiments use the minimum post-encroachment time (PET) between the ego and its surrounding vehicles as the risk surrogate on highD. On the primary evaluation set, our method realizes 1,422 of 1,440 requests within a 0.05 percentile tolerance (98.75%), with mean percentile error 0.00673 and PET-target error 0.00991 seconds. The resulting interface connects context-relative risk specification, physical realization, and evaluation through a common risk scale. Project website and videos of generated scenarios are available at https://hhj233.github.io/CornerPercentile/.

We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal coverage guarantees, where predictive coverage holds on average over all possible test points, but this is not sufficient for many practical applications where we would like to know that our predictions are valid for a given individual, not merely on average over a population. On the other hand, exact conditional inference guarantees are known to be impossible without imposing assumptions on the underlying distribution. In this work we aim to explore the space in between these two, and examine what types of relaxations of the conditional coverage property would alleviate some of the practical concerns with marginal coverage guarantees while still being possible to achieve in a distribution-free setting.

Guardrail Classifiers defend production language models against harmful behavior, but although results seem promising in testing, they provide no formal guarantees. Providing formal guarantees for such models is hard because "harmful behavior" has no natural specification in a discrete input space: and the standard epsilon-ball properties used in other domains do not carry semantic meaning. We close this gap by shifting verification from the discrete input space to the classifier's pre-activation space, where we define a harmful region as a convex shape enclosing the representations of known harmful prompts. Because the sigmoid classification head is monotonic, certifying the worst-case point is sufficient to certify the entire region, yielding a closed-form soundness proof without approximation in O(d) time. To formally evaluate these classifiers, we propose two constructions of such regions: SVD-aligned hyper-rectangles, which yield exact SAT/UNSAT certificates, and Gaussian Mixture Models, which yield probabilistic certificates over semantically coherent clusters. Applying this framework to three author-trained Guardrail Classifiers on the toxicity domain, every hyper-rectangle configuration returns SAT, exposing verifiable safety holes across all classifiers, despite seemingly high empirical metrics. Probabilistic GMM certificates also expose a divergent structural stability in how these models represent harm. While GPT-2 and Llama-3.1-8B maintain robust coverage of 90% and 80% across varying boundaries, BERT's safety guarantees prove uniquely volatile. This 'coverage collapse' to 55% at the optimal threshold reveals a sparsely populated safety margin in BERT, which only achieves full coverage by adopting an extremely conservative pessimistic threshold. These approaches combined, provide new insights on how effective Guardrail Classifiers really are, beyond traditional red-teaming.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

Firm characteristics are commonly represented as fixed vectors, even though evidence about firms' operations arrives as heterogeneous collections of articles reports. We study how distances between distributions of firm characteristics restrict systematic covariance. For given latent exposure laws, quadratic Wasserstein geometry yields sharp covariance endpoints over admissible couplings. Under a common randomized bi-Lipschitz characteristic-to-exposure map, bounded risk-coordinate slack, and a maintained return-covariance bridge, characteristic-side distance yields a conditional interval for the covariance ceiling. Greater separation then leaves less scope for aligned systematic exposures when these assumptions are tight, while a non-negative transport excess term records the gap between realized and maximum-covariance arrangements. The resulting envelope is scenario analysis rather than an expected-return, no-arbitrage, or identified structural model. Empirically, we proxy characteristic distributions with encoder-only language-model embeddings of financial news articles, disclosures, and analyst reports for Nasdaq firms over 2018-2022. In a dyadic regression with symmetric firm effects, greater pairwise article-embedding W2 distance is associated with weaker return co-movement: the coefficient is 1.920, with 95% interval [1.412, 2.468]. The estimate retains the same sign when returns are measured in a later window, although the feature construction is not point-in-time and the evidence remains reduced form.

We seek to identify the most relevant benefits offered by Medicare Advantage Health Plans that drive membership and market share. As an example, we explore plans operating in a single county in New Jersey between 2018 and 2023. A dataset of benefits from publicly available data sources was created and the variance inflation factor was applied to identify the correlation between the extracted features, to avoid multicollinearity and overparameterization problems. We categorized the variable Market Share and used it as a multinomial response variable with three categories: less than 0.3\%, 0.3\% to 1.5\%, and over 1.5\%. Categories were chosen to achieve approximately uniform distribution of plans (47, 60, and 65 respectively). We built a multinomial Lasso model using 5-fold cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. Lasso forced some features to be dropped from the model, which reduces the risk of overfitting and increases the interpretability of the results. For each category, important variables are different. Certain brands drive market share, as do PPO plans and prescription drug coverage. Benefits, particularly ancillary benefits that are not part of CMS's required benefits, appear to have little influence, while financial terms such as deductibles, copays, and out-of-pocket limits are associated with higher market share. Finally, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Lasso model with the test set. The accuracy is 0.76.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Mixed-precision quantization must decide which parts of a model to keep at higher precision. A common premise, shared by sensitivity-based methods such as HAWQ and CoopQ, is that the loss from quantizing a set of layers can be reconstructed from per-layer or pairwise sensitivities measured in isolation. We test this premise at the 4-bit weight-and-activation precisions now being deployed, treating the change in loss f(S) from quantizing a layer set S as a set function on the Boolean cube and analyzing it through two classical changes of basis. This analysis yields two findings. First, across configurations drawn from the deployment distribution, 85--93\% of the variance of f is explained by per-layer effects alone. Second, a monotone transform of a sum of per-layer terms reproduces f's ranking of configurations, misordering at most 2\% of pairs. We propose the coverage model f(S)=cbigl(1-prod_{iin S}(1-a_i)bigr), which reproduces the measured variance profile of f to within a few percent from its L fitted break-rates. This structure supports two predictors of a configuration's loss, each with L+1 parameters. The additive model is the optimal first-order predictor. By Parseval's identity its mean-squared error equals the variance of f left unexplained by per-layer effects, which we measure on full lattices, estimate out of sample at full-network scale, and report with every result as a certificate of how well any additive model can do. The coverage model itself is the second predictor. As allocators at matched memory, they attain the lowest KL divergence among the compared allocators on models from 30B to 355B parameters. Below four bits, the resulting allocations continue to solve code and reasoning tasks at budgets where allocations from gradient sensitivities no longer produce terminating generations.