Daily Papers

Metric-induced discrete flow matching (MI-DFM) exploits token-latent geometry for discrete generation, but its practical use is limited by two issues: heuristic schedulers requiring hyperparameter search, and finite-step path-tracking error from its first-order continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) solver. We address both issues. First, we derive a kinetic-optimal scheduler for prescribed scalar-parameterized probability paths, and instantiate it for MI-DFM as a training-free numerical schedule that traverses the path at constant Fisher-Rao speed. Second, we introduce a finite-step moment correction that adjusts the jump probability while preserving the CTMC jump destination distribution. We validate the resulting method, GibbsTTS, on codec-based zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS). Under controlled comparisons with a unified architecture and large-scale dataset, GibbsTTS achieves the best objective naturalness and is preferred in subjective evaluations over masked discrete generative baselines. Additionally, in comparison with the evaluated state-of-the-art TTS systems, GibbsTTS shows strong speaker similarity, achieving the highest similarity on three of four test sets and ranking second on the fourth. Project page: https://ydqmkkx.github.io/GibbsTTSProject

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the data separation function. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to 1 in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of n samples in d dimension as n/drightarrow 0. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes kinetic optimal as n/drightarrow 0. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

We study the problem of generating synthetic data under differential privacy. We establish fixed-parameter tractability (FPT) for this problem where the parameter is the treewidth of the query family's incidence graph. Our algorithms attain optimal error rates across all regimes and are realized by two different approaches: the first is based on linear programming (LP) and the FPT of the separation problem for the LP dual; the second is based on a subsampled private multiplicative weights method, where we obtain FPT for sampling from Gibbs distributions. Both approaches are unified by a dynamic programming framework over a tree decomposition.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

We present Orbit-Space Geometric Probability Paths (OGPP), a particle-native flow-matching framework for generative modeling of particle systems. OGPP is motivated by two insights: (i) particles are defined up to permutation symmetries, so anonymous indexing inflates per-index target variance and yields curved, hard-to-learn flows; and (ii) particles live in physical space, so the flow terminal velocity has physical meaning and can encode geometric attributes, e.g., surface normals. OGPP instantiates three key components: (1) orbit-space canonicalization of the probability-path terminal endpoint, (2) particle index embeddings for role specialization, and (3) geometric probability paths with arc-length-aware terminal velocities that generate normals as a byproduct of the flow. We evaluate OGPP on minimal-surface benchmarks, where it reduces metric error by up to two orders of magnitude in a single inference step; on ShapeNet, where it matches the state of the art with 5x fewer steps and reaches airplane EMD comparable to DiT-3D with 26x fewer parameters and 5x fewer steps; and on single-shape encoding, where it produces normals and reconstructions competitive with 6D generators while operating entirely in 3D.

Inference-time steering enables pretrained diffusion/flow models to be adapted to new tasks without retraining. A widely used approach is the ratio-of-densities method, which defines a time-indexed target path by reweighting probability-density trajectories from multiple models with positive, or in some cases, negative exponents. This construction, however, harbors a critical and previously unformalized failure mode: Marginal Path Collapse, where intermediate densities become non-normalizable even though endpoints remain valid. Collapse arises systematically when composing heterogeneous models trained on different noise schedules or datasets, including a common setting in molecular design where de-novo, conformer, and pocket-conditioned models must be combined for tasks such as flexible-pose scaffold decoration. We provide a novel and complete solution for the problem. First, we derive a simple path existence criterion that predicts exactly when collapse occurs from noise schedules and exponents alone. Second, we introduce Adaptive path Correction with Exponents (ACE), which extends Feynman-Kac steering to time-varying exponents and guarantees a valid probability path. On a synthetic 2D benchmark and on flexible-pose scaffold decoration, ACE eliminates collapse and enables high-guidance compositional generation, improving distributional and docking metrics over constant-exponent baselines and even specialized task-specific scaffold decoration models. Our work turns ratio-of-densities steering with heterogeneous experts from an unstable heuristic into a reliable tool for controllable generation.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Combining discrete probability distributions and combinatorial optimization problems with neural network components has numerous applications but poses several challenges. We propose Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (I-MLE), a framework for end-to-end learning of models combining discrete exponential family distributions and differentiable neural components. I-MLE is widely applicable as it only requires the ability to compute the most probable states and does not rely on smooth relaxations. The framework encompasses several approaches such as perturbation-based implicit differentiation and recent methods to differentiate through black-box combinatorial solvers. We introduce a novel class of noise distributions for approximating marginals via perturb-and-MAP. Moreover, we show that I-MLE simplifies to maximum likelihood estimation when used in some recently studied learning settings that involve combinatorial solvers. Experiments on several datasets suggest that I-MLE is competitive with and often outperforms existing approaches which rely on problem-specific relaxations.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

The generation of 3D molecules requires simultaneously deciding the categorical features~(atom types) and continuous features~(atom coordinates). Deep generative models, especially Diffusion Models (DMs), have demonstrated effectiveness in generating feature-rich geometries. However, existing DMs typically suffer from unstable probability dynamics with inefficient sampling speed. In this paper, we introduce geometric flow matching, which enjoys the advantages of both equivariant modeling and stabilized probability dynamics. More specifically, we propose a hybrid probability path where the coordinates probability path is regularized by an equivariant optimal transport, and the information between different modalities is aligned. Experimentally, the proposed method could consistently achieve better performance on multiple molecule generation benchmarks with 4.75times speed up of sampling on average.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

Time-Optimal Path Parameterization (TOPP) is a well-studied problem in robotics and has a wide range of applications. There are two main families of methods to address TOPP: Numerical Integration (NI) and Convex Optimization (CO). NI-based methods are fast but difficult to implement and suffer from robustness issues, while CO-based approaches are more robust but at the same time significantly slower. Here we propose a new approach to TOPP based on Reachability Analysis (RA). The key insight is to recursively compute reachable and controllable sets at discretized positions on the path by solving small Linear Programs (LPs). The resulting algorithm is faster than NI-based methods and as robust as CO-based ones (100% success rate), as confirmed by extensive numerical evaluations. Moreover, the proposed approach offers unique additional benefits: Admissible Velocity Propagation and robustness to parametric uncertainty can be derived from it in a simple and natural way.

We introduce a new paradigm for generative modeling built on Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), allowing us to train CNFs at unprecedented scale. Specifically, we present the notion of Flow Matching (FM), a simulation-free approach for training CNFs based on regressing vector fields of fixed conditional probability paths. Flow Matching is compatible with a general family of Gaussian probability paths for transforming between noise and data samples -- which subsumes existing diffusion paths as specific instances. Interestingly, we find that employing FM with diffusion paths results in a more robust and stable alternative for training diffusion models. Furthermore, Flow Matching opens the door to training CNFs with other, non-diffusion probability paths. An instance of particular interest is using Optimal Transport (OT) displacement interpolation to define the conditional probability paths. These paths are more efficient than diffusion paths, provide faster training and sampling, and result in better generalization. Training CNFs using Flow Matching on ImageNet leads to consistently better performance than alternative diffusion-based methods in terms of both likelihood and sample quality, and allows fast and reliable sample generation using off-the-shelf numerical ODE solvers.

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

We consider the problem of how a teacher algorithm can enable an unknown Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) student to become good at a skill over a wide range of diverse environments. To do so, we study how a teacher algorithm can learn to generate a learning curriculum, whereby it sequentially samples parameters controlling a stochastic procedural generation of environments. Because it does not initially know the capacities of its student, a key challenge for the teacher is to discover which environments are easy, difficult or unlearnable, and in what order to propose them to maximize the efficiency of learning over the learnable ones. To achieve this, this problem is transformed into a surrogate continuous bandit problem where the teacher samples environments in order to maximize absolute learning progress of its student. We present a new algorithm modeling absolute learning progress with Gaussian mixture models (ALP-GMM). We also adapt existing algorithms and provide a complete study in the context of DRL. Using parameterized variants of the BipedalWalker environment, we study their efficiency to personalize a learning curriculum for different learners (embodiments), their robustness to the ratio of learnable/unlearnable environments, and their scalability to non-linear and high-dimensional parameter spaces. Videos and code are available at https://github.com/flowersteam/teachDeepRL.

During the last decade, sampling-based path planning algorithms, such as Probabilistic RoadMaps (PRM) and Rapidly-exploring Random Trees (RRT), have been shown to work well in practice and possess theoretical guarantees such as probabilistic completeness. However, little effort has been devoted to the formal analysis of the quality of the solution returned by such algorithms, e.g., as a function of the number of samples. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap, by rigorously analyzing the asymptotic behavior of the cost of the solution returned by stochastic sampling-based algorithms as the number of samples increases. A number of negative results are provided, characterizing existing algorithms, e.g., showing that, under mild technical conditions, the cost of the solution returned by broadly used sampling-based algorithms converges almost surely to a non-optimal value. The main contribution of the paper is the introduction of new algorithms, namely, PRM* and RRT*, which are provably asymptotically optimal, i.e., such that the cost of the returned solution converges almost surely to the optimum. Moreover, it is shown that the computational complexity of the new algorithms is within a constant factor of that of their probabilistically complete (but not asymptotically optimal) counterparts. The analysis in this paper hinges on novel connections between stochastic sampling-based path planning algorithms and the theory of random geometric graphs.

We propose a new class of parameterizations for spatio-temporal point processes which leverage Neural ODEs as a computational method and enable flexible, high-fidelity models of discrete events that are localized in continuous time and space. Central to our approach is a combination of continuous-time neural networks with two novel neural architectures, i.e., Jump and Attentive Continuous-time Normalizing Flows. This approach allows us to learn complex distributions for both the spatial and temporal domain and to condition non-trivially on the observed event history. We validate our models on data sets from a wide variety of contexts such as seismology, epidemiology, urban mobility, and neuroscience.

We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows', the actual (observed) history. We test our approach using paths generated from a maximum entropy model of financial prices, based on a recently proposed multi-scale analogue of the standard skewness and kurtosis called `Scattering Spectra'. This model promotes diversity of generated paths while reproducing the main statistical properties of financial prices, including stylized facts on volatility roughness. Our method yields state-of-the-art predictions for future realized volatility and allows one to determine conditional option smiles for the S\&P500 that outperform both the current version of the Path-Dependent Volatility model and the option market itself.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

We present a fast algorithm for the design of smooth paths (or trajectories) that are constrained to lie in a collection of axis-aligned boxes. We consider the case where the number of these safe boxes is large, and basic preprocessing of them (such as finding their intersections) can be done offline. At runtime we quickly generate a smooth path between given initial and terminal positions. Our algorithm designs trajectories that are guaranteed to be safe at all times, and detects infeasibility whenever such a trajectory does not exist. Our algorithm is based on two subproblems that we can solve very efficiently: finding a shortest path in a weighted graph, and solving (multiple) convex optimal-control problems. We demonstrate the proposed path planner on large-scale numerical examples, and we provide an efficient open-source software implementation, fastpathplanning.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

We study reinforcement learning with function approximation for large-scale Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) where the state space and observation space are large or even continuous. Particularly, we consider Hilbert space embeddings of POMDP where the feature of latent states and the feature of observations admit a conditional Hilbert space embedding of the observation emission process, and the latent state transition is deterministic. Under the function approximation setup where the optimal latent state-action Q-function is linear in the state feature, and the optimal Q-function has a gap in actions, we provide a computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for finding the exact optimal policy. We show our algorithm's computational and statistical complexities scale polynomially with respect to the horizon and the intrinsic dimension of the feature on the observation space. Furthermore, we show both the deterministic latent transitions and gap assumptions are necessary to avoid statistical complexity exponential in horizon or dimension. Since our guarantee does not have an explicit dependence on the size of the state and observation spaces, our algorithm provably scales to large-scale POMDPs.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

Recent work on the sequence universality of State Space Models (SSMs) has introduced efficient, maximally expressive continuous-time approaches for time-series modelling. While these works focus on discriminative settings, we extend this perspective to generative time-series modelling by proving that maximally expressive Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs) are universal time-series generators, in the sense that they can approximate the induced path laws of continuous causal pushforwards on compact latent sets in W_infty. Building on these theoretical results, we propose Generative SLiCEs (G-SLiCEs), a maximally expressive continuous-time model for flow matching on path-space. Empirically, we show that expressivity improves performance in probabilistic forecasting and downstream tasks, while retaining the advantages of continuous-time models such as generalising to arbitrary observation grids. This is particularly beneficial for irregular grids, where fixed-grid models often struggle.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

The Entropic Optimal Transport (EOT) problem and its dynamic counterpart, the Schrödinger bridge (SB) problem, play an important role in modern machine learning, linking generative modeling with optimal transport theory. While recent advances in discrete diffusion and flow models have sparked growing interest in applying SB methods to discrete domains, there is still no reliable way to evaluate how well these methods actually solve the underlying problem. We address this challenge by introducing a benchmark for SB on discrete spaces. Our construction yields pairs of probability distributions with analytically known SB solutions, enabling rigorous evaluation. As a byproduct of building this benchmark, we obtain two new SB algorithms, DLightSB and DLightSB-M, and additionally extend prior related work to construct the α-CSBM algorithm. We demonstrate the utility of our benchmark by evaluating both existing and new solvers in high-dimensional discrete settings. This work provides the first step toward proper evaluation of SB methods on discrete spaces, paving the way for more reproducible future studies.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

The presence of linear paths in parameter space between two different network solutions in certain cases, i.e., linear mode connectivity (LMC), has garnered interest from both theoretical and practical fronts. There has been significant research that either practically designs algorithms catered for connecting networks by adjusting for the permutation symmetries as well as some others that more theoretically construct paths through which networks can be connected. Yet, the core reasons for the occurrence of LMC, when in fact it does occur, in the highly non-convex loss landscapes of neural networks are far from clear. In this work, we take a step towards understanding it by providing a model of how the loss landscape needs to behave topographically for LMC (or the lack thereof) to manifest. Concretely, we present a `mountainside and ridge' perspective that helps to neatly tie together different geometric features that can be spotted in the loss landscape along the training runs. We also complement this perspective by providing a theoretical analysis of the barrier height, for which we provide empirical support, and which additionally extends as a faithful predictor of layer-wise LMC. We close with a toy example that provides further intuition on how barriers arise in the first place, all in all, showcasing the larger aim of the work -- to provide a working model of the landscape and its topography for the occurrence of LMC.

Offline reinforcement learning is typically analyzed under process-level reward supervision, yet many sequential decision datasets record only trajectory-level outcomes. We develop a statistical theory for offline policy optimization from such outcome-level supervision. We first study the canonical setting where the target remains the expected cumulative reward, but each offline trajectory provides only a scalar label whose conditional mean is the cumulative return. We propose OPAC, a pessimistic actor-critic algorithm that learns a latent reward model and optimizes a policy from trajectory-level labels. We prove a high-probability guarantee of order widetilde O(H^2C_{sa(π^star)/n}) and a matching lower bound, characterizing the sharp statistical cost of replacing process-level rewards with one trajectory-level label. We then extend the principle to preference-based feedback, preserving the leading horizon and concentrability dependence up to preference-model constants. Finally, we study generalized outcome-based offline RL, where both the supervision and the objective are trajectory-level quantities induced by a nonlinear aggregation of latent per-step rewards. This problem is not learnable in general: for all-success objectives, any offline learner may require Ω(2^H) trajectories even with deterministic transitions and constant concentrability. We then identify a tractable regime through two structural coefficients, κ_μ(σ) and χ_μ(σ), capturing information loss in outcome aggregation and generalized Bellman updates, under which generalized OPAC achieves polynomial sample complexity. Together, our results delineate when outcome-level supervision enables sample-efficient offline control and when missing process-level rewards create fundamental statistical barriers.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Conventional diffusion models typically relies on a fixed forward process, which implicitly defines complex marginal distributions over latent variables. This can often complicate the reverse process' task in learning generative trajectories, and results in costly inference for diffusion models. To address these limitations, we introduce Neural Flow Diffusion Models (NFDM), a novel framework that enhances diffusion models by supporting a broader range of forward processes beyond the fixed linear Gaussian. We also propose a novel parameterization technique for learning the forward process. Our framework provides an end-to-end, simulation-free optimization objective, effectively minimizing a variational upper bound on the negative log-likelihood. Experimental results demonstrate NFDM's strong performance, evidenced by state-of-the-art likelihood estimation. Furthermore, we investigate NFDM's capacity for learning generative dynamics with specific characteristics, such as deterministic straight lines trajectories. This exploration underscores NFDM's versatility and its potential for a wide range of applications.

Matching objectives underpin the success of modern generative models and rely on constructing conditional paths that transform a source distribution into a target distribution. Despite being a fundamental building block, conditional paths have been designed principally under the assumption of Euclidean geometry, resulting in straight interpolations. However, this can be particularly restrictive for tasks such as trajectory inference, where straight paths might lie outside the data manifold, thus failing to capture the underlying dynamics giving rise to the observed marginals. In this paper, we propose Metric Flow Matching (MFM), a novel simulation-free framework for conditional flow matching where interpolants are approximate geodesics learned by minimizing the kinetic energy of a data-induced Riemannian metric. This way, the generative model matches vector fields on the data manifold, which corresponds to lower uncertainty and more meaningful interpolations. We prescribe general metrics to instantiate MFM, independent of the task, and test it on a suite of challenging problems including LiDAR navigation, unpaired image translation, and modeling cellular dynamics. We observe that MFM outperforms the Euclidean baselines, particularly achieving SOTA on single-cell trajectory prediction.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

We introduce BézierFlow, a lightweight training approach for few-step generation with pretrained diffusion and flow models. BézierFlow achieves a 2-3x performance improvement for sampling with leq 10 NFEs while requiring only 15 minutes of training. Recent lightweight training approaches have shown promise by learning optimal timesteps, but their scope remains restricted to ODE discretizations. To broaden this scope, we propose learning the optimal transformation of the sampling trajectory by parameterizing stochastic interpolant (SI) schedulers. The main challenge lies in designing a parameterization that satisfies critical desiderata, including boundary conditions, differentiability, and monotonicity of the SNR. To effectively meet these requirements, we represent scheduler functions as Bézier functions, where control points naturally enforce these properties. This reduces the problem to learning an ordered set of points in the time range, while the interpretation of the points changes from ODE timesteps to Bézier control points. Across a range of pretrained diffusion and flow models, BézierFlow consistently outperforms prior timestep-learning methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of expanding the search space from discrete timesteps to Bézier-based trajectory transformations.

Flow and diffusion models generate high-quality samples in many modalities; however, many network evaluations are required during inference due to numerical integration of an underlying differential equation. Flow maps alleviate this problem by learning the solution map of the differential equation directly, enabling few-step sampling. Yet, current methods are restricted to approximating the solution map of ODEs. These methods can be used to learn the transition kernel of an SDE, thereby obtaining a solution map that recovers the marginal distributions of the process (weak convergence) rather than the solution path (strong convergence). We propose Strong Stochastic Flow Maps (SSFMs) as a novel framework for learning the strong solution map of additive-noise SDEs, directly generalizing deterministic flow maps to the stochastic setting. Further, a polynomial approximation to Brownian motion is introduced and shown to converge pathwise. These results enable a simulation-free training objective for the solution map of diffusion models. We demonstrate that SSFMs outperform previous stochastic flow map methods on image generation and enable few-step sampling of molecular systems.

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a computational point of view and cannot be applied to maximum likelihood training in a scalable manner, which severely hinders their widespread adoption. In this work, we overcome these crucial limitations. Specifically, we propose a fast path gradient estimator which improves computational efficiency significantly and works for all normalizing flow architectures of practical relevance. We then show that this estimator can also be applied to maximum likelihood training for which it has a regularizing effect as it can take the form of a given target energy function into account. We empirically establish its superior performance and reduced variance for several natural sciences applications.

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. In this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

We derive a minimalist but powerful deterministic denoising-diffusion model. While denoising diffusion has shown great success in many domains, its underlying theory remains largely inaccessible to non-expert users. Indeed, an understanding of graduate-level concepts such as Langevin dynamics or score matching appears to be required to grasp how it works. We propose an alternative approach that requires no more than undergrad calculus and probability. We consider two densities and observe what happens when random samples from these densities are blended (linearly interpolated). We show that iteratively blending and deblending samples produces random paths between the two densities that converge toward a deterministic mapping. This mapping can be evaluated with a neural network trained to deblend samples. We obtain a model that behaves like deterministic denoising diffusion: it iteratively maps samples from one density (e.g., Gaussian noise) to another (e.g., cat images). However, compared to the state-of-the-art alternative, our model is simpler to derive, simpler to implement, more numerically stable, achieves higher quality results in our experiments, and has interesting connections to computer graphics.

We propose a filtering feature selection framework that considers subsets of features as paths in a graph, where a node is a feature and an edge indicates pairwise (customizable) relations among features, dealing with relevance and redundancy principles. By two different interpretations (exploiting properties of power series of matrices and relying on Markov chains fundamentals) we can evaluate the values of paths (i.e., feature subsets) of arbitrary lengths, eventually go to infinite, from which we dub our framework Infinite Feature Selection (Inf-FS). Going to infinite allows to constrain the computational complexity of the selection process, and to rank the features in an elegant way, that is, considering the value of any path (subset) containing a particular feature. We also propose a simple unsupervised strategy to cut the ranking, so providing the subset of features to keep. In the experiments, we analyze diverse settings with heterogeneous features, for a total of 11 benchmarks, comparing against 18 widely-known comparative approaches. The results show that Inf-FS behaves better in almost any situation, that is, when the number of features to keep are fixed a priori, or when the decision of the subset cardinality is part of the process.

Inference-Time Scaling (ITS) has largely succeeded in verifiable domains like math and coding, where cheap verification enables scalable output selection. However, extending ITS to tasks prone to systematic failure - driven by faulty initial assumptions or unmet multidimensional constraints - typically relies on costly external solvers or brittle, model-based verifiers. Our key insight is that the intrinsic statistics of parallel sample sets, specifically length-adjusted tail entropy, provide a robust discriminative signal for solution quality without access to ground truth. Crucially, these statistics serve as a difficulty gate for adaptive compute allocation, dynamically routing problems across scaling regimes. First, Intrinsic Selection (iS) ranks candidates post-hoc, matching consensus-based algorithms across three domains and improving engineering design selection by 20% over pass@1 baselines. Second, Intrinsic Particle Filtering (iPF) generalizes this to step-level resampling, guiding generation toward high-confidence reasoning trajectories to improve pass@1 by 6.1 points on average on hard math problems. Finally, Particle Distillation (dPF) injects privileged guidance via early logit blending and KL-guided resampling, steering generation past systematic reasoning errors to satisfy expert rubrics, yielding up to 26.5% gains on complex clinical responses. Our pipeline applies seamlessly across broad-purpose, domain-specialized, and multimodal architectures, successfully extending ITS to open-ended domains without requiring trained reward models or exact ground-truth verification.

In this article, we introduce a new parameterized family of topological invariants, taking the form of candidate decompositions, for multi-parameter persistence modules. We prove that our candidate decompositions are controllable approximations: when restricting to modules that can be decomposed into interval summands, we establish theoretical results about the approximation error between our candidate decompositions and the true underlying module in terms of the standard interleaving and bottleneck distances. Moreover, even when the underlying module does not admit such a decomposition, our candidate decompositions are nonetheless stable invariants; small perturbations in the underlying module lead to small perturbations in the candidate decomposition. Then, we introduce MMA (Multipersistence Module Approximation): an algorithm for computing stable instances of such invariants, which is based on fibered barcodes and exact matchings, two constructions that stem from the theory of single-parameter persistence. By design, MMA can handle an arbitrary number of filtrations, and has bounded complexity and running time. Finally, we present empirical evidence validating the generalization capabilities and running time speed-ups of MMA on several data sets.

Rapidly-exploring random trees (RRTs) are popular in motion planning because they find solutions efficiently to single-query problems. Optimal RRTs (RRT*s) extend RRTs to the problem of finding the optimal solution, but in doing so asymptotically find the optimal path from the initial state to every state in the planning domain. This behaviour is not only inefficient but also inconsistent with their single-query nature. For problems seeking to minimize path length, the subset of states that can improve a solution can be described by a prolate hyperspheroid. We show that unless this subset is sampled directly, the probability of improving a solution becomes arbitrarily small in large worlds or high state dimensions. In this paper, we present an exact method to focus the search by directly sampling this subset. The advantages of the presented sampling technique are demonstrated with a new algorithm, Informed RRT*. This method retains the same probabilistic guarantees on completeness and optimality as RRT* while improving the convergence rate and final solution quality. We present the algorithm as a simple modification to RRT* that could be further extended by more advanced path-planning algorithms. We show experimentally that it outperforms RRT* in rate of convergence, final solution cost, and ability to find difficult passages while demonstrating less dependence on the state dimension and range of the planning problem.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

We present a constructive lower bound of Ω(1/varepsilon) for Frank-Wolfe (FW) when both the objective and the constraint set are smooth and strongly convex, showing that the known uniform O(1/varepsilon) guarantees in this regime are tight. It is known that under additional assumptions on the position of the optimizer, FW can converge linearly. However, it remained unclear whether strong convexity of the set can yield rates uniformly faster than O(1/varepsilon), i.e., irrespective of the position of the optimizer. To investigate this question, we focus on a simple yet representative problem class: minimizing a strongly convex quadratic over the Euclidean unit ball, with the optimizer on the boundary. We analyze the dynamics of FW for this problem in detail and develop a novel computational approach to construct worst-case FW trajectories, which is of independent interest. Guided by these constructions, we develop an analytical proof establishing the lower bound.

Motivated by variational inference methods, we propose a zeroth-order algorithm for solving optimization problems in the space of Gaussian probability measures. The algorithm is based on an interacting system of Gaussian particles that stochastically explore the search space and self-organize around global minima via a consensus-based optimization (CBO) mechanism. Its construction relies on the Linearized Bures-Wasserstein (LBW) space, a novel parametrization of Gaussian measures we introduce for efficient computations. LBW is inspired by linearized optimal transport and preserves key geometric features while enabling computational tractability. We establish well-posedness and study the convergence properties of the particle dynamics via a mean-field approximation. Numerical experiments on variational inference tasks demonstrate the algorithm's robustness and superior performance with respect to deterministic gradient-based method in presence of low-dimensional non log-concave targets.

This work proposes a novel framework based on nested evolving set processes to accelerate Personalized PageRank (PPR) computation. At each stage of the process, we employ a localized inexact proximal point iteration to solve a simplified linear system. We show that the time complexity of such localized methods is upper bounded by min{mathcal{O}(R^2/ε^2), mathcal{O}(m)} to obtain an ε-approximation of the PPR vector, where m denotes the number of edges in the graph and R is a constant defined via nested evolving set processes. Furthermore, the algorithms induced by our framework require solving only mathcal{O}(1/sqrtα) such linear systems, where α is the damping factor. When 1/ε^2ll m, this implies the existence of an algorithm that computes an epsilon -approximation of the PPR vector with an overall time complexity of mathcal{O}left(R^2 / (sqrtαε^2)right), independent of the underlying graph size. Our result resolves an open conjecture from existing literature. Experimental results on real-world graphs validate the efficiency of our methods, demonstrating significant convergence in the early stages.

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

The framework of reinforcement learning or optimal control provides a mathematical formalization of intelligent decision making that is powerful and broadly applicable. While the general form of the reinforcement learning problem enables effective reasoning about uncertainty, the connection between reinforcement learning and inference in probabilistic models is not immediately obvious. However, such a connection has considerable value when it comes to algorithm design: formalizing a problem as probabilistic inference in principle allows us to bring to bear a wide array of approximate inference tools, extend the model in flexible and powerful ways, and reason about compositionality and partial observability. In this article, we will discuss how a generalization of the reinforcement learning or optimal control problem, which is sometimes termed maximum entropy reinforcement learning, is equivalent to exact probabilistic inference in the case of deterministic dynamics, and variational inference in the case of stochastic dynamics. We will present a detailed derivation of this framework, overview prior work that has drawn on this and related ideas to propose new reinforcement learning and control algorithms, and describe perspectives on future research.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

We investigate stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits, where the entire joint distribution of outcomes impacts the complexity of the problem instance (unlike in the standard bandits). Typical distributions considered depend on specific parameter values, whose prior knowledge is required in theory but quite difficult to estimate in practice; an example is the commonly assumed sub-Gaussian family. We alleviate this issue by instead considering a new general family of sub-exponential distributions, which contains bounded and Gaussian ones. We prove a new lower bound on the expected regret on this family, that is parameterized by the unknown covariance matrix of outcomes, a tighter quantity than the sub-Gaussian matrix. We then construct an algorithm that uses covariance estimates, and provide a tight asymptotic analysis of the regret. Finally, we apply and extend our results to the family of sparse outcomes, which has applications in many recommender systems.

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

We study the deterministic global optimization of trained Gaussian process posterior mean functions over hyperrectangular domains. Although the posterior mean function has a compact closed-form representation, its global optimization is challenging because it remains nonlinear and nonconvex. Existing exact deterministic approaches become increasingly difficult to scale as the number of training data points grows, leading to approximation-based methods that improve tractability by optimizing a modified (inexact) objective. In this work, we propose PALM-Mean, a piecewise-analytic lower-bounding framework embedded in reduced-space spatial branch-and-bound. At each node, kernel terms that are locally important are replaced by a sign-aware piecewise-linear relaxation in an appropriate scalar distance variable, while the remaining terms are bounded analytically in closed form. We show this hybrid approach yields a valid lower bound for the posterior mean, while limiting the size of the branch-and-bound subproblems. We establish validity of the node lower bounds and varepsilon-global convergence of the resulting algorithm. Computational results on synthetic benchmarks and real-world application problems show that PALM-Mean improves scalability relative to representative general-purpose deterministic global solvers, particularly as the number of training data points increases.

Belief Propagation (BP) is a powerful algorithm for distributed inference in probabilistic graphical models, however it quickly becomes infeasible for practical compute and memory budgets. Many efficient, non-parametric forms of BP have been developed, but the most popular is Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP), a variant that assumes all distributions are locally Gaussian. GBP is widely used due to its efficiency and empirically strong performance in applications like computer vision or sensor networks - even when modelling non-Gaussian problems. In this paper, we seek to provide a theoretical guarantee for when Gaussian approximations are valid in highly non-Gaussian, sparsely-connected factor graphs performing BP (common in spatial AI). We leverage the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to prove mathematically that variables' beliefs under BP converge to a Gaussian distribution in complex, loopy factor graphs obeying our 4 key assumptions. We then confirm experimentally that variable beliefs become increasingly Gaussian after just a few BP iterations in a stereo depth estimation task.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

This paper re-examines a continuous optimization framework dubbed NOTEARS for learning Bayesian networks. We first generalize existing algebraic characterizations of acyclicity to a class of matrix polynomials. Next, focusing on a one-parameter-per-edge setting, it is shown that the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions for the NOTEARS formulation cannot be satisfied except in a trivial case, which explains a behavior of the associated algorithm. We then derive the KKT conditions for an equivalent reformulation, show that they are indeed necessary, and relate them to explicit constraints that certain edges be absent from the graph. If the score function is convex, these KKT conditions are also sufficient for local minimality despite the non-convexity of the constraint. Informed by the KKT conditions, a local search post-processing algorithm is proposed and shown to substantially and universally improve the structural Hamming distance of all tested algorithms, typically by a factor of 2 or more. Some combinations with local search are both more accurate and more efficient than the original NOTEARS.

We develop a learning-based framework for constructing shrinking disturbance-invariant tubes under state- and input-dependent uncertainty, intended as a building block for tube Model Predictive Control (MPC), and certify safety via a lifted, isotone (order-preserving) fixed-point map. Gaussian Process (GP) posteriors become (1-α) credible ellipsoids, then polytopic outer sets for deterministic set operations. A two-time-scale scheme separates learning epochs, where these polytopes are frozen, from an inner, outside-in iteration that converges to a compact fixed point Z^star!subseteq!mathcal G; its state projection is RPI for the plant. As data accumulate, disturbance polytopes tighten, and the associated tubes nest monotonically, resolving the circular dependence between the set to be verified and the disturbance model while preserving hard constraints. A double-integrator study illustrates shrinking tube cross-sections in data-rich regions while maintaining invariance.

We study the problem of learning in the stochastic shortest path (SSP) setting, where an agent seeks to minimize the expected cost accumulated before reaching a goal state. We design a novel model-based algorithm EB-SSP that carefully skews the empirical transitions and perturbs the empirical costs with an exploration bonus to induce an optimistic SSP problem whose associated value iteration scheme is guaranteed to converge. We prove that EB-SSP achieves the minimax regret rate O(B_{star} S A K), where K is the number of episodes, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, and B_{star} bounds the expected cumulative cost of the optimal policy from any state, thus closing the gap with the lower bound. Interestingly, EB-SSP obtains this result while being parameter-free, i.e., it does not require any prior knowledge of B_{star}, nor of T_{star}, which bounds the expected time-to-goal of the optimal policy from any state. Furthermore, we illustrate various cases (e.g., positive costs, or general costs when an order-accurate estimate of T_{star} is available) where the regret only contains a logarithmic dependence on T_{star}, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound beyond the finite-horizon MDP setting.

The Beta kernel estimator offers a theoretically superior alternative to the Gaussian kernel for unit interval data, eliminating boundary bias without requiring reflection or transformation. However, its adoption remains limited by the lack of a reliable bandwidth selector; practitioners currently rely on iterative optimization methods that are computationally expensive and prone to instability. We derive the ``Beta Reference Rule,'' a fast, closed-form bandwidth selector based on the unweighted Asymptotic Mean Integrated Squared Error (AMISE) of a beta reference distribution. To address boundary integrability issues, we introduce a principled heuristic for U-shaped and J-shaped distributions. By employing a method-of-moments approximation, we reduce the bandwidth selection complexity from iterative optimization to O(1). Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our rule matches the accuracy of numerical optimization while delivering a speedup of over 35,000 times. Real-world validation on socioeconomic data shows that it avoids the ``vanishing boundary'' and ``shoulder'' artifacts common to Gaussian-based methods. We provide a comprehensive, open-source Python package to facilitate the immediate adoption of the Beta kernel as a drop-in replacement for standard density estimation tools.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere mathbb S^{d-1}. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on mathbb S^{d-1} to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on (mathbb S^{d-1})^L both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

We present a novel geometric perspective on the latent space of diffusion models. We first show that the standard pullback approach, utilizing the deterministic probability flow ODE decoder, is fundamentally flawed. It provably forces geodesics to decode as straight segments in data space, effectively ignoring any intrinsic data geometry beyond the ambient Euclidean space. Complementing this view, diffusion also admits a stochastic decoder via the reverse SDE, which enables an information geometric treatment with the Fisher-Rao metric. However, a choice of x_T as the latent representation collapses this metric due to memorylessness. We address this by introducing a latent spacetime z=(x_t,t) that indexes the family of denoising distributions p(x_0 | x_t) across all noise scales, yielding a nontrivial geometric structure. We prove these distributions form an exponential family and derive simulation-free estimators for curve lengths, enabling efficient geodesic computation. The resulting structure induces a principled Diffusion Edit Distance, where geodesics trace minimal sequences of noise and denoise edits between data. We also demonstrate benefits for transition path sampling in molecular systems, including constrained variants such as low-variance transitions and region avoidance. Code is available at: https://github.com/rafalkarczewski/spacetime-geometry.

A wide range of optimization problems can often be written in terms of generalized convex functions (GCFs). When this structure is present, it can convert certain nested bilevel objectives into single-level problems amenable to standard first-order optimization methods. We provide a new differentiable layer with a convex parameter space and show (Theorems 5.1 and 5.2) that it and its gradient are universal approximators for GCFs and their gradients. We demonstrate how this parameterization can be leveraged in practice by (i) learning optimal transport maps with general cost functions and (ii) learning optimal auctions of multiple goods. In both these cases, we show how our layer can be used to convert the existing bilevel or min-max formulations into single-level problems that can be solved efficiently with first-order methods.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) offers a powerful and general framework for learning humans' latent preferences in route recommendation, yet no approach has successfully addressed planetary-scale problems with hundreds of millions of states and demonstration trajectories. In this paper, we introduce scaling techniques based on graph compression, spatial parallelization, and improved initialization conditions inspired by a connection to eigenvector algorithms. We revisit classic IRL methods in the routing context, and make the key observation that there exists a trade-off between the use of cheap, deterministic planners and expensive yet robust stochastic policies. This insight is leveraged in Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), a new generalization of classic IRL algorithms that provides fine-grained control over performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our contributions culminate in a policy that achieves a 16-24% improvement in route quality at a global scale, and to the best of our knowledge, represents the largest published study of IRL algorithms in a real-world setting to date. We conclude by conducting an ablation study of key components, presenting negative results from alternative eigenvalue solvers, and identifying opportunities to further improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies.

Ray tracing has become a standard for accurate radio propagation modeling, but suffers from exponential computational complexity, as the number of candidate paths scales with the number of objects raised to the power of the interaction order. This bottleneck limits its use in large-scale or real-time applications, forcing traditional tools to rely on heuristics to reduce the number of path candidates at the cost of potentially reduced accuracy. To overcome this limitation, we propose a comprehensive machine-learning-assisted framework that replaces exhaustive path searching with intelligent sampling via Generative Flow Networks. Applying such generative models to this domain presents significant challenges, particularly sparse rewards due to the rarity of valid paths, which can lead to convergence failures and trivial solutions when evaluating high-order interactions in complex environments. To ensure robust learning and efficient exploration, our framework incorporates three key architectural components. First, we implement an experience replay buffer to capture and retain rare valid paths. Second, we adopt a uniform exploratory policy to improve generalization and prevent the model from overfitting to simple geometries. Third, we apply a physics-based action masking strategy that filters out physically impossible paths before the model even considers them. As demonstrated in our experimental validation, the proposed model achieves substantial speedups over exhaustive search -- up to 10times faster on GPU and 1000times faster on CPU -- while maintaining high coverage accuracy and successfully uncovering complex propagation paths. The complete source code, tests, and tutorial are available at https://github.com/jeertmans/sampling-paths.

In this paper we propose two algorithms in the tabular setting and an algorithm for the function approximation setting for the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. SSP problems form an important class of problems in Reinforcement Learning (RL), as other types of cost-criteria in RL can be formulated in the setting of SSP. We show asymptotic almost-sure convergence for all our algorithms. We observe superior performance of our tabular algorithms compared to other well-known convergent RL algorithms. We further observe reliable performance of our function approximation algorithm compared to other algorithms in the function approximation setting.

Constant-stepsize stochastic approximation (SA) is widely used in learning for computational efficiency. For a fixed stepsize, the iterates typically admit a stationary distribution that is rarely tractable. Prior work shows that as the stepsize αdownarrow 0, the centered-and-scaled steady state converges weakly to a Gaussian random vector. However, for fixed α, this weak convergence offers no usable error bound for approximating the steady-state by its Gaussian limit. This paper provides explicit, non-asymptotic error bounds for fixed α. We first prove general-purpose theorems that bound the Wasserstein distance between the centered-scaled steady state and an appropriate Gaussian distribution, under regularity conditions for drift and moment conditions for noise. To ensure broad applicability, we cover both i.i.d. and Markovian noise models. We then instantiate these theorems for three representative SA settings: (1) stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for smooth strongly convex objectives, (2) linear SA, and (3) contractive nonlinear SA. We obtain dimension- and stepsize-dependent, explicit bounds in Wasserstein distance of order α^{1/2}log(1/α) for small α. Building on the Wasserstein approximation error, we further derive non-uniform Berry--Esseen-type tail bounds that compare the steady-state tail probability to Gaussian tails. We achieve an explicit error term that decays in both the deviation level and stepsize α. We adapt the same analysis for SGD beyond strongly convexity and study general convex objectives. We identify a non-Gaussian (Gibbs) limiting law under the correct scaling, which is validated numerically, and provide a corresponding pre-limit Wasserstein error bound.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

In this paper, we present the findings of our Project ALPINE which stands for ``Autoregressive Learning for Planning In NEtworks." Project ALPINE initiates a theoretical investigation into the development of planning capabilities in Transformer-based language models through their autoregressive learning mechanisms, aiming to identify any potential limitations in their planning abilities. We abstract planning as a network path-finding task where the objective is to generate a valid path from a specified source node to a designated target node. In terms of expressiveness, we show that the Transformer is capable of executing path-finding by embedding the adjacency and reachability matrices within its weights. Our theoretical analysis of the gradient-based learning dynamic of the Transformer reveals that the Transformer is capable of learning both the adjacency matrix and a limited form of the reachability matrix. These theoretical insights are then validated through experiments, which demonstrate that the Transformer indeed learns the adjacency matrix and an incomplete reachability matrix, which aligns with the predictions made in our theoretical analysis. Additionally, when applying our methodology to a real-world planning benchmark, called Blocksworld, our observations remain consistent. Our theoretical and empirical analyses further unveil a potential limitation of Transformer in path-finding: it cannot identify reachability relationships through transitivity, and thus would fail when path concatenation is needed to generate a path. In summary, our findings shed new light on how the internal mechanisms of autoregressive learning enable planning in networks. This study may contribute to our understanding of the general planning capabilities in other related domains.

Diffusion (score-based) generative models have been widely used for modeling various types of complex data, including images, audios, and point clouds. Recently, the deep connection between forward-backward stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and diffusion-based models has been revealed, and several new variants of SDEs are proposed (e.g., sub-VP, critically-damped Langevin) along this line. Despite the empirical success of the hand-crafted fixed forward SDEs, a great quantity of proper forward SDEs remain unexplored. In this work, we propose a general framework for parameterizing the diffusion model, especially the spatial part of the forward SDE. An abstract formalism is introduced with theoretical guarantees, and its connection with previous diffusion models is leveraged. We demonstrate the theoretical advantage of our method from an optimization perspective. Numerical experiments on synthetic datasets, MINIST and CIFAR10 are also presented to validate the effectiveness of our framework.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are a useful probabilistic model for selecting a small diverse subset out of a large collection of items, with applications in summarization, stochastic optimization, active learning and more. Given a kernel function and a subset size k, our goal is to sample k out of n items with probability proportional to the determinant of the kernel matrix induced by the subset (a.k.a. k-DPP). Existing k-DPP sampling algorithms require an expensive preprocessing step which involves multiple passes over all n items, making it infeasible for large datasets. A naïve heuristic addressing this problem is to uniformly subsample a fraction of the data and perform k-DPP sampling only on those items, however this method offers no guarantee that the produced sample will even approximately resemble the target distribution over the original dataset. In this paper, we develop an algorithm which adaptively builds a sufficiently large uniform sample of data that is then used to efficiently generate a smaller set of k items, while ensuring that this set is drawn exactly from the target distribution defined on all n items. We show empirically that our algorithm produces a k-DPP sample after observing only a small fraction of all elements, leading to several orders of magnitude faster performance compared to the state-of-the-art.

Sampling-based algorithms are viewed as practical solutions for high-dimensional motion planning. Recent progress has taken advantage of random geometric graph theory to show how asymptotic optimality can also be achieved with these methods. Achieving this desirable property for systems with dynamics requires solving a two-point boundary value problem (BVP) in the state space of the underlying dynamical system. It is difficult, however, if not impractical, to generate a BVP solver for a variety of important dynamical models of robots or physically simulated ones. Thus, an open challenge was whether it was even possible to achieve optimality guarantees when planning for systems without access to a BVP solver. This work resolves the above question and describes how to achieve asymptotic optimality for kinodynamic planning using incremental sampling-based planners by introducing a new rigorous framework. Two new methods, Stable Sparse-RRT (SST) and SST*, result from this analysis, which are asymptotically near-optimal and optimal, respectively. The techniques are shown to converge fast to high-quality paths, while they maintain only a sparse set of samples, which makes them computationally efficient. The good performance of the planners is confirmed by experimental results using dynamical systems benchmarks, as well as physically simulated robots.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the Controlled Monte Carlo Diffusion sampler (CMCD) for Bayesian computation, a score-based annealing technique that crucially adapts both forward and backward dynamics in a diffusion model. On the way, we clarify the relationship between the EM-algorithm and iterative proportional fitting (IPF) for Schr{\"o}dinger bridges, deriving as well a regularised objective that bypasses the iterative bottleneck of standard IPF-updates. Finally, we show that CMCD has a strong foundation in the Jarzinsky and Crooks identities from statistical physics, and that it convincingly outperforms competing approaches across a wide array of experiments.

We revisit the standard perturbation-based approach of Abernethy et al. (2008) in the context of unconstrained Bandit Linear Optimization (uBLO). We show the surprising result that in the unconstrained setting, this approach effectively reduces Bandit Linear Optimization (BLO) to a standard Online Linear Optimization (OLO) problem. Our framework improves on prior work in several ways. First, we derive expected-regret guarantees when our perturbation scheme is combined with comparator-adaptive OLO algorithms, leading to new insights about the impact of different adversarial models on the resulting comparator-adaptive rates. We also extend our analysis to dynamic regret, obtaining the first guarantees with optimal P_T path-length dependencies without prior knowledge of P_T. We then develop the first high-probability guarantees for both static and dynamic regret in uBLO. Finally, we discuss lower bounds on the static regret, and prove the folklore Ω(dT) rate for adversarial linear bandits on the Euclidean ball, which is of independent interest.

The study of hardest and easiest fitness landscapes is an active area of research. Recently, Kaufmann, Larcher, Lengler and Zou conjectured that for the self-adjusting (1,lambda)-EA, Adversarial Dynamic BinVal (ADBV) is the hardest dynamic monotone function to optimize. We introduce the function Switching Dynamic BinVal (SDBV) which coincides with ADBV whenever the number of remaining zeros in the search point is strictly less than n/2, where n denotes the dimension of the search space. We show, using a combinatorial argument, that for the (1+1)-EA with any mutation rate p in [0,1], SDBV is drift-minimizing among the class of dynamic monotone functions. Our construction provides the first explicit example of an instance of the partially-ordered evolutionary algorithm (PO-EA) model with parameterized pessimism introduced by Colin, Doerr and F\'erey, building on work of Jansen. We further show that the (1+1)-EA optimizes SDBV in Theta(n^{3/2}) generations. Our simulations demonstrate matching runtimes for both static and self-adjusting (1,lambda) and (1+lambda)-EA. We further show, using an example of fixed dimension, that drift-minimization does not equal maximal runtime.

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge this gap, we present Latent Laplace Diffusion (LLapDiff), a generative framework that models the target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, enabling horizon-wide generation without step-by-step integration over physical time. We guide the reverse process utilizing a stable modal parameterization motivated by stochastic port-Hamiltonian dynamics, and parameterize its mean evolution in the Laplace domain via learnable complex-conjugate poles, enabling direct evaluation over irregular timestamps. We also link continuous dynamics to irregular observations through renewal-averaging analysis, which maps sampling gaps to effective event-domain poles and motivates a gap-aware history summarizer. Extensive experiments show that LLapDiff improves over baselines in long-horizon forecasting, and its continuous-time generative nature supports missing-value imputation by querying the same model at historical timestamps. Code is available at https://github.com/pixelhero98/LLapDiffusion.

In recent years, there has been an emerging trend of combining two innovations in computer science and physics to achieve better computation capability. Exploring the potential of quantum computation to achieve highly efficient performance in various tasks is a vital development in engineering and a valuable question in sciences, as it has a significant potential to provide exponential speedups for technologically complex problems that are specifically advantageous to quantum computers. However, one key issue in unleashing this potential is constructing an efficient approach to load classical data into quantum states that can be executed by quantum computers or quantum simulators on classical hardware. Therefore, the split-step quantum walks (SSQW) algorithm was proposed to address this limitation. We facilitate SSQW to design parameterized quantum circuits (PQC) that can generate probability distributions and optimize the parameters to achieve the desired distribution using a variational solver. A practical example of implementing SSQW using Qiskit has been released as open-source software. Showing its potential as a promising method for generating desired probability amplitude distributions highlights the potential application of SSQW in option pricing through quantum simulation.

Prior works in multi-objective reinforcement learning typically use linear reward scalarization with fixed weights, which provably fail to capture non-convex Pareto fronts and thus yield suboptimal results. This limitation becomes especially critical in online preference alignment for large language models. Here, stochastic trajectories generated by parameterized policies create highly non-linear and non-convex mappings from parameters to objectives that no single static weighting scheme can find optimal trade-offs. We address this limitation by introducing dynamic reward weighting, which adaptively adjusts reward weights during the online reinforcement learning process. Unlike existing approaches that rely on fixed-weight interpolation, our dynamic weighting continuously balances and prioritizes objectives in training, facilitating effective exploration of Pareto fronts in objective space. We introduce two approaches of increasing sophistication and generalizability: (1) hypervolume-guided weight adaptation and (2) gradient-based weight optimization, offering a versatile toolkit for online multi-objective alignment. Our extensive experiments demonstrate their compatibility with commonly used online reinforcement learning algorithms (including GRPO, REINFORCE, and RLOO), effectiveness across multiple mathematical reasoning datasets, and applicability to different model families, consistently achieving Pareto dominant solutions with fewer training steps than fixed-weight linear scalarization baselines.

We study the Stochastic Boolean Function Certification (SBFC) problem, where we are given n Bernoulli random variables {X_e: e in U} on a ground set U of n elements with joint distribution p, a Boolean function f: 2^U to {0, 1}, and an (unknown) scenario S = {e in U: X_e = 1} of active elements sampled from p. We seek to probe the elements one-at-a-time to reveal if they are active until we can certify f(S) = 1, while minimizing the expected number of probes. Unlike most previous results that assume independence, we study correlated distributions p and give approximation algorithms for several classes of functions f. When f(S) is the indicator function for whether S is the spanning set of a given matroid, our problem reduces to finding a basis of active elements of a matroid by probing elements. We give a non-adaptive O(log n)-approximation algorithm for arbitrary distributions p, and show that this is tight up to constants unless P = NP, even for partition matroids. For uniform matroids, we give constant factor 4.642-approximation ([BBFT20]) that can be further improved to a 2-approximation if additionally the random variables are negatively correlated for the case of 1-uniform matroid. We also give an adaptive O(log k)-approximation algorithm for SBFC for k-uniform matroids for the Graph Probing problem, where we seek to probe the edges of a graph one-at-a-time until we find k active edges. The underlying distribution on edges arises from (hidden) independent vertex random variables, with an edge being active if at least one of its endpoints is active. This significantly improves over the information-theoretic lower bound on Ω(poly(n)) ([JGM19]) for adaptive algorithms for k-uniform matroids with arbitrary distributions.

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there are finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, real-world data is often not naturally posed in this setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions. Then, we convert each GP into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications. We release the code of FunBaT at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Functional-Bayesian-Tucker-Decomposition.

We propose refined GRFs (GRFs++), a new class of Graph Random Features (GRFs) for efficient and accurate computations involving kernels defined on the nodes of a graph. GRFs++ resolve some of the long-standing limitations of regular GRFs, including difficulty modeling relationships between more distant nodes. They reduce dependence on sampling long graph random walks via a novel walk-stitching technique, concatenating several shorter walks without breaking unbiasedness. By applying these techniques, GRFs++ inherit the approximation quality provided by longer walks but with greater efficiency, trading sequential, inefficient sampling of a long walk for parallel computation of short walks and matrix-matrix multiplication. Furthermore, GRFs++ extend the simplistic GRFs walk termination mechanism (Bernoulli schemes with fixed halting probabilities) to a broader class of strategies, applying general distributions on the walks' lengths. This improves the approximation accuracy of graph kernels, without incurring extra computational cost. We provide empirical evaluations to showcase all our claims and complement our results with theoretical analysis.

Linear bandits have long been a central topic in online learning, with applications ranging from recommendation systems to adaptive clinical trials. Their general learnability has been established when the objective is to minimise the inner product between a cost parameter and the decision variable. While this is highly general, this reliance on an inner product structure belies the name of linear bandits, and fails to account for problems such as Optimal Transport. Using the Kantorovich formulation of Optimal Transport as an example, we show that an inner product structure is not necessary to achieve efficient learning in linear bandits. We propose a refinement of the classical OFUL algorithm that operates by embedding the action set into a Hilbertian subspace, where confidence sets can be built via least-squares estimation. Actions are then constrained to this subspace by penalising optimism. The analysis is completed by leveraging convergence results from penalised (entropic) transport to the Kantorovich problem. Up to this approximation term, the resulting algorithm achieves the same trajectorial regret upper bounds as the OFUL algorithm, which we turn into worst-case regret using functional regression techniques. Its regret interpolates between mathcal O(T) and {mathcal O}(T), depending on the regularity of the cost function, and recovers the parametric rate mathcal O(dT) in finite-dimensional settings.

We introduce Functional Diffusion Processes (FDPs), which generalize score-based diffusion models to infinite-dimensional function spaces. FDPs require a new mathematical framework to describe the forward and backward dynamics, and several extensions to derive practical training objectives. These include infinite-dimensional versions of Girsanov theorem, in order to be able to compute an ELBO, and of the sampling theorem, in order to guarantee that functional evaluations in a countable set of points are equivalent to infinite-dimensional functions. We use FDPs to build a new breed of generative models in function spaces, which do not require specialized network architectures, and that can work with any kind of continuous data. Our results on real data show that FDPs achieve high-quality image generation, using a simple MLP architecture with orders of magnitude fewer parameters than existing diffusion models.

Path-velocity decomposition is an intuitive yet powerful approach to address the complexity of kinodynamic motion planning. The difficult trajectory planning problem is solved in two separate, simpler, steps: first, find a path in the configuration space that satisfies the geometric constraints (path planning), and second, find a time-parameterization of that path satisfying the kinodynamic constraints. A fundamental requirement is that the path found in the first step should be time-parameterizable. Most existing works fulfill this requirement by enforcing quasi-static constraints in the path planning step, resulting in an important loss in completeness. We propose a method that enables path-velocity decomposition to discover truly dynamic motions, i.e. motions that are not quasi-statically executable. At the heart of the proposed method is a new algorithm -- Admissible Velocity Propagation -- which, given a path and an interval of reachable velocities at the beginning of that path, computes exactly and efficiently the interval of all the velocities the system can reach after traversing the path while respecting the system kinodynamic constraints. Combining this algorithm with usual sampling-based planners then gives rise to a family of new trajectory planners that can appropriately handle kinodynamic constraints while retaining the advantages associated with path-velocity decomposition. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method on some difficult kinodynamic planning problems, where, in particular, quasi-static methods are guaranteed to fail.

Diffusion models have emerged as a formidable tool for training-free conditional generation.However, a key hurdle in inference-time guidance techniques is the need for compute-heavy backpropagation through the diffusion network for estimating the guidance direction. Moreover, these techniques often require handcrafted parameter tuning on a case-by-case basis. Although some recent works have introduced minimal compute methods for linear inverse problems, a generic lightweight guidance solution to both linear and non-linear guidance problems is still missing. To this end, we propose Dreamguider, a method that enables inference-time guidance without compute-heavy backpropagation through the diffusion network. The key idea is to regulate the gradient flow through a time-varying factor. Moreover, we propose an empirical guidance scale that works for a wide variety of tasks, hence removing the need for handcrafted parameter tuning. We further introduce an effective lightweight augmentation strategy that significantly boosts the performance during inference-time guidance. We present experiments using Dreamguider on multiple tasks across multiple datasets and models to show the effectiveness of the proposed modules. To facilitate further research, we will make the code public after the review process.

We introduce Minary, a computational framework designed as a candidate for the first formally provable autopoietic primitive. Minary represents interacting probabilistic events as multi-dimensional vectors and combines them via linear superposition rather than multiplicative scalar operations, thereby preserving uncertainty and enabling constructive and destructive interference in the range [-1,1]. A fixed set of ``perspectives'' evaluates ``semantic dimensions'' according to hidden competencies, and their interactions drive two discrete-time stochastic processes. We model this system as an iterated random affine map and use the theory of iterated random functions to prove that it converges in distribution to a unique stationary law; we moreover obtain an explicit closed form for the limiting expectation in terms of row, column, and global averages of the competency matrix. We then derive exact formulas for the mean and variance of the normalized consensus conditioned on the activation of a given semantic dimension, revealing how consensus depends on competency structure rather than raw input signals. Finally, we argue that Minary is organizationally closed yet operationally open in the sense of Maturana and Varela, and we discuss implications for building self-maintaining, distributed, and parallelizable computational systems that house a uniquely subjective notion of identity.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

We present anyakrakusuma, an open-source Python library that solves the discrete static Schrödinger bridge problem, the entropically regularized counterpart of optimal transport, through a log-domain Sinkhorn--Knopp iteration and reconstructs the entropic interpolation between two empirical point clouds. The solver is paired with a diagnostic pipeline that characterizes the optimal coupling and the intermediate distributions through information-theoretic and geometric measures. We exercise the library on four idealized planar cases spanning a circle-to-circle dilation, a spiral-to-mixture fragmentation, a rigid reorientation of two moons, and a Lissajous-to-trefoil deformation. The log-domain formulation is necessary rather than merely convenient at the parameters studied, where the cost-to-regularization ratio reaches four hundred and the Gibbs kernel underflows double precision across most of its range; the iteration nonetheless attains a marginal residual of 10^{-9} and unit marginal fidelity in every case. Residual histories decay geometrically over approximately eight decades at per-iteration contraction factors between 0.966 and 0.976, which are local rates near the fixed point that lie many orders of magnitude below the worst-case Hilbert-metric bound. The covariance analysis recovers an imposed ninety-degree reorientation to within 0.07^circ, roughly forty times smaller than its uncertainty, across a masked interval of near-isotropy on which the principal axis is unobservable. The diagnostics are reported with explicit attention to the regimes in which each is well defined, including the differential entropy, which is meaningful only on the open interpolation interval. The presented cases are constructed rather than measured; quantitative application to empirical point clouds requires further study.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Diffusion and flow matching models generate high-fidelity data by simulating paths defined by Ordinary or Stochastic Differential Equations (ODEs/SDEs), starting from a tractable prior distribution. The probability flow ODE formulation enables the use of advanced numerical solvers to accelerate sampling. Orthogonal yet vital to solver design is the discretization strategy. While early approaches employed handcrafted heuristics and recent methods adopt optimization-based techniques, most existing strategies enforce a globally shared timestep schedule across all samples. This uniform treatment fails to account for instance-specific complexity in the generative process, potentially limiting performance. Motivated by controlled experiments on synthetic data, which reveals the suboptimality of global schedules under instance-specific dynamics, we propose an instance-aware discretization framework. Our method learns to adapt timestep allocations based on input-dependent priors, extending gradient-based discretization search to the conditional generative setting. Empirical results across diverse settings, including synthetic data, pixel-space diffusion, latent-space images and video flow matching models, demonstrate that our method consistently improves generation quality with marginal tuning cost compared to training and negligible inference overhead.

Temporal credit assignment in reinforcement learning is often approached by introducing value estimates at multiple discount factors. A natural next step is to let the actor dynamically route among these temporal heads, using either differentiable attention or heuristic uncertainty weights. This paper argues that such routing can create a numerical shortcut rather than a reliable temporal abstraction. We study this issue in a controlled PPO setting on LunarLander-v2, using the environment as a visual sandbox for diagnosing failure modes. First, we formalize Surrogate Objective Hacking: a differentiable softmax router exposed to the PPO surrogate receives a direct gradient toward advantage heads that are numerically favorable for the current update, even when this routing change does not correspond to improved physical control. Because unnormalized advantages at different discount factors have different effective scales, this creates a scale-discrepancy vulnerability. Second, we identify the Paradox of Temporal Uncertainty in gradient-free error-based routing: short-horizon heads can receive the largest routing share because their prediction targets are easier, even when they are less aligned with delayed task success. As a structural response, we study Target Decoupling: the critic may retain multi-timescale auxiliary heads, but the actor is updated only with the long-horizon advantage. Target Decoupling is not presented as a broad performance booster; in this run set it removes the exploitable actor-side routing pathway and improves the observed worst-seed return. Code is available at https://github.com/ben-dlwlrma/Representation-Over-Routing.

Traffic forecasting is a challenging spatio-temporal modeling task and a critical component of urban transportation management. Current studies mainly focus on deterministic predictions, with limited considerations on the uncertainty and stochasticity in traffic dynamics. Therefore, this paper proposes an elegant yet universal approach that transforms existing models into probabilistic predictors by replacing only the final output layer with a novel Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) layer. The modified model requires no changes to the training pipeline and can be trained using only the Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) loss, without any auxiliary or regularization terms. Experiments on multiple traffic datasets show that our approach generalizes from classic to modern model architectures while preserving deterministic performance. Furthermore, we propose a systematic evaluation procedure based on cumulative distributions and confidence intervals, and demonstrate that our approach is considerably more accurate and informative than unimodal or deterministic baselines. Finally, a more detailed study on a real-world dense urban traffic network is presented to examine the impact of data quality on uncertainty quantification and to show the robustness of our approach under imperfect data conditions. Code available at https://github.com/Weijiang-Xiong/OpenSkyTraffic

Certain tasks in high-dimensional statistics become easier when the underlying distribution satisfies a local-to-global property called approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE). For example, the Glauber dynamics Markov chain of an ATE distribution mixes fast and can produce approximate samples in a small amount of time, since such a distribution satisfies a modified log-Sobolev inequality. Moreover, identity-testing for an ATE distribution requires few samples if the tester is given coordinate conditional access to the unknown distribution, as shown by Blanca, Chen, Štefankovič, and Vigoda (COLT 2023). A natural class of distributions that do not satisfy ATE consists of mixtures of (few) distributions that do satisfy ATE. We study the complexity of identity-testing and sampling for these distributions. Our main results are the following: 1. We show fast mixing of Glauber dynamics from a data-based initialization, with optimal sample complexity, for mixtures of distributions satisfying modified log-Sobolev inequalities. This extends work of Huang, Koehler, Lee, Mohanty, Rajaraman, Vuong, and Wu (STOC 2025, COLT 2025) for mixtures of distributions satisfying Poincaré inequalities. 2. Answering an open question posed by Blanca et al., we give efficient identity-testers for mixtures of ATE distributions in the coordinate-conditional sampling access model. We also give some simplifications and improvements to the original algorithm of Blanca et al.

We develop a unified theoretical framework for sparse knowledge distillation based on probability-domain softening operators. While the equivalence p^{1/T} propto softmax(z/T) is well known, our contribution is an operator-level analytical framework built on this foundation rather than the equivalence itself. The framework comprises four core components: (i) operator-agnostic bias--variance decompositions that characterize when sparse students outperform dense teachers, (ii) a homotopy path formalization of multi-stage pruning in function space explaining why iterative compression succeeds where one-shot pruning fails, (iii) convergence guarantees establishing O(1/n) rates for n-stage distillation with explicit parameter dependence, and (iv) equivalence class characterizations identifying distinct probability-domain operators that yield identical student models under capacity constraints. We introduce an axiomatic definition of probability-domain softening operators based on ranking preservation, continuity, entropy monotonicity, identity, and boundary behavior, and show that multiple non-equivalent operator families satisfy these axioms. All learning-theoretic guarantees are shown to hold uniformly across this operator class, independent of implementation details. These results provide theoretical grounding for black-box teacher distillation, partial-access settings such as top-k truncation and text-only outputs, and privacy-preserving model compression.

Stream networks, a unique class of spatiotemporal graphs, exhibit complex directional flow constraints and evolving dependencies, making uncertainty quantification a critical yet challenging task. Traditional conformal prediction methods struggle in this setting due to the need for joint predictions across multiple interdependent locations and the intricate spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in stream networks. Existing approaches either neglect dependencies, leading to overly conservative predictions, or rely solely on data-driven estimations, failing to capture the rich topological structure of the network. To address these challenges, we propose Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI), a novel framework that integrates network topology and temporal dynamics into the conformal prediction framework. STACI introduces a topology-aware nonconformity score that respects directional flow constraints and dynamically adjusts prediction sets to account for temporal distributional shifts. We provide theoretical guarantees on the validity of our approach and demonstrate its superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our results show that STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing conformal prediction methods for stream networks.

We introduce a mathematically rigorous framework based on rough path theory to model stochastic spiking neural networks (SSNNs) as stochastic differential equations with event discontinuities (Event SDEs) and driven by c\`adl\`ag rough paths. Our formalism is general enough to allow for potential jumps to be present both in the solution trajectories as well as in the driving noise. We then identify a set of sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of pathwise gradients of solution trajectories and event times with respect to the network's parameters and show how these gradients satisfy a recursive relation. Furthermore, we introduce a general-purpose loss function defined by means of a new class of signature kernels indexed on c\`adl\`ag rough paths and use it to train SSNNs as generative models. We provide an end-to-end autodifferentiable solver for Event SDEs and make its implementation available as part of the diffrax library. Our framework is, to our knowledge, the first enabling gradient-based training of SSNNs with noise affecting both the spike timing and the network's dynamics.

We give a conceptual treatment of the notion of joints, marginals, and independence in the setting of categorical probability. This is achieved by endowing the usual probability monads (like the Giry monad) with a monoidal and an opmonoidal structure, mutually compatible (i.e. a bimonoidal structure). If the underlying monoidal category is cartesian monoidal, a bimonoidal structure is given uniquely by a commutative strength. However, if the underlying monoidal category is not cartesian monoidal, a strength is not enough to guarantee all the desired properties of joints and marginals. A bimonoidal structure is then the correct requirement for the more general case. We explain the theory and the operational interpretation, with the help of the graphical calculus for monoidal categories. We give a definition of stochastic independence based on the bimonoidal structure, compatible with the intuition and with other approaches in the literature for cartesian monoidal categories. We then show as an example that the Kantorovich monad on the category of complete metric spaces is a bimonoidal monad for a non-cartesian monoidal structure.

In many real-world settings, a centralized decision-maker must repeatedly allocate finite resources to a population over multiple time steps. Individuals who receive a resource derive some stochastic utility; to characterize the population-level effects of an allocation, the expected individual utilities are then aggregated using a social welfare function (SWF). We formalize this setting and present a general confidence sequence framework for SWF-based online learning and inference, valid for any monotonic, concave, and Lipschitz-continuous SWF. Our key insight is that monotonicity alone suffices to lift confidence sequences from individual utilities to anytime-valid bounds on optimal welfare. Building on this foundation, we propose SWF-UCB, a SWF-agnostic online learning algorithm that achieves near-optimal O(n+nkT) regret (for k resources distributed among n individuals at each of T time steps). We instantiate our framework on three normatively distinct SWF families: Weighted Power Mean, Kolm, and Gini, providing bespoke oracle algorithms for each. Experiments confirm T scaling and reveal rich interactions between k and SWF parameters. This framework naturally supports inference applications such as sequential hypothesis testing, optimal stopping, and policy evaluation.

Network pruning techniques, including weight pruning and filter pruning, reveal that most state-of-the-art neural networks can be accelerated without a significant performance drop. This work focuses on filter pruning which enables accelerated inference with any off-the-shelf deep learning library and hardware. We propose the concept of network pruning spaces that parametrize populations of subnetwork architectures. Based on this concept, we explore the structure aspect of subnetworks that result in minimal loss of accuracy in different pruning regimes and arrive at a series of observations by comparing subnetwork distributions. We conjecture through empirical studies that there exists an optimal FLOPs-to-parameter-bucket ratio related to the design of original network in a pruning regime. Statistically, the structure of a winning subnetwork guarantees an approximately optimal ratio in this regime. Upon our conjectures, we further refine the initial pruning space to reduce the cost of searching a good subnetwork architecture. Our experimental results on ImageNet show that the subnetwork we found is superior to those from the state-of-the-art pruning methods under comparable FLOPs.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Diffusion and flow models have become the dominant paradigm for generative modeling on Riemannian manifolds, with successful applications in protein backbone generation and DNA sequence design. However, these methods require tens to hundreds of neural network evaluations at inference time, which can become a computational bottleneck in large-scale scientific sampling workflows. We introduce Riemannian MeanFlow~(RMF), a framework for learning flow maps directly on manifolds, enabling high-quality generations with as few as one forward pass. We derive three equivalent characterizations of the manifold average velocity (Eulerian, Lagrangian, and semigroup identities), and analyze parameterizations and stabilization techniques to improve training on high-dimensional manifolds. In promoter DNA design and protein backbone generation settings, RMF achieves comparable sample quality to prior methods while requiring up to 10times fewer function evaluations. Finally, we show that few-step flow maps enable efficient reward-guided design through reward look-ahead, where terminal states can be predicted from intermediate steps at minimal additional cost.

We study the sample complexity of learning an ε-optimal policy in the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. We first derive sample complexity bounds when the learner has access to a generative model. We show that there exists a worst-case SSP instance with S states, A actions, minimum cost c_{min}, and maximum expected cost of the optimal policy over all states B_{star}, where any algorithm requires at least Ω(SAB_{star}^3/(c_{min}ε^2)) samples to return an ε-optimal policy with high probability. Surprisingly, this implies that whenever c_{min} = 0 an SSP problem may not be learnable, thus revealing that learning in SSPs is strictly harder than in the finite-horizon and discounted settings. We complement this lower bound with an algorithm that matches it, up to logarithmic factors, in the general case, and an algorithm that matches it up to logarithmic factors even when c_{min} = 0, but only under the condition that the optimal policy has a bounded hitting time to the goal state.

In this paper we present a novel probabilistic sampling-based motion planning algorithm called the Fast Marching Tree algorithm (FMT*). The algorithm is specifically aimed at solving complex motion planning problems in high-dimensional configuration spaces. This algorithm is proven to be asymptotically optimal and is shown to converge to an optimal solution faster than its state-of-the-art counterparts, chiefly PRM* and RRT*. The FMT* algorithm performs a "lazy" dynamic programming recursion on a predetermined number of probabilistically-drawn samples to grow a tree of paths, which moves steadily outward in cost-to-arrive space. As a departure from previous analysis approaches that are based on the notion of almost sure convergence, the FMT* algorithm is analyzed under the notion of convergence in probability: the extra mathematical flexibility of this approach allows for convergence rate bounds--the first in the field of optimal sampling-based motion planning. Specifically, for a certain selection of tuning parameters and configuration spaces, we obtain a convergence rate bound of order O(n^{-1/d+ρ}), where n is the number of sampled points, d is the dimension of the configuration space, and ρ is an arbitrarily small constant. We go on to demonstrate asymptotic optimality for a number of variations on FMT*, namely when the configuration space is sampled non-uniformly, when the cost is not arc length, and when connections are made based on the number of nearest neighbors instead of a fixed connection radius. Numerical experiments over a range of dimensions and obstacle configurations confirm our theoretical and heuristic arguments by showing that FMT*, for a given execution time, returns substantially better solutions than either PRM* or RRT*, especially in high-dimensional configuration spaces and in scenarios where collision-checking is expensive.

This paper studies the fundamental limits of reinforcement learning (RL) in the challenging partially observable setting. While it is well-established that learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) requires exponentially many samples in the worst case, a surge of recent work shows that polynomial sample complexities are achievable under the revealing condition -- A natural condition that requires the observables to reveal some information about the unobserved latent states. However, the fundamental limits for learning in revealing POMDPs are much less understood, with existing lower bounds being rather preliminary and having substantial gaps from the current best upper bounds. We establish strong PAC and regret lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs. Our lower bounds scale polynomially in all relevant problem parameters in a multiplicative fashion, and achieve significantly smaller gaps against the current best upper bounds, providing a solid starting point for future studies. In particular, for multi-step revealing POMDPs, we show that (1) the latent state-space dependence is at least Omega(S^{1.5}) in the PAC sample complexity, which is notably harder than the Theta(S) scaling for fully-observable MDPs; (2) Any polynomial sublinear regret is at least Omega(T^{2/3}), suggesting its fundamental difference from the single-step case where O(T) regret is achievable. Technically, our hard instance construction adapts techniques in distribution testing, which is new to the RL literature and may be of independent interest.

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental models to the fully dynamic setting when given predictions about the update times of the elements. In the most basic form of our model, we receive a set of predicted update times for all of the updates that occur over the event horizon. We give a novel framework that "lifts" offline divide-and-conquer algorithms into the fully dynamic setting with little overhead. Using this, we are able to interpolate between the offline and fully dynamic settings; when the ell_1 error of the prediction is linear in the number of updates, we achieve the offline runtime of the algorithm (up to poly log n factors). Provided a fully dynamic backstop algorithm, our algorithm will never do worse than the backstop algorithm regardless of the prediction error. Furthermore, our framework achieves a smooth linear trade-off between ell_1 error in the predictions and runtime. These correspond to the desiderata of consistency, robustness, and graceful degradation of the algorithms-with-predictions literature. We further extend our techniques to incremental and decremental settings, transforming algorithms in these settings when given predictions of only the deletion and insertion times, respectively. Our framework is general, and we apply it to obtain improved efficiency bounds over the state-of-the-art dynamic algorithms for a variety of problems including triconnectivity, planar digraph all pairs shortest paths, k-edge connectivity, and others, for prediction error of reasonable magnitude.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the dataset, causal query, sensitivity level, or treatment require new computation. Here, we instead present an in-context learning approach. Specifically, we propose an amortized approach to causal sensitivity analysis based on prior-data fitted networks. A key challenge is that the sensitivity bounds are not directly available when sampling training data. To address this, we develop a general prior-data construction that is applicable across the class of generalized treatment sensitivity models. Our construction involves a Lagrangian scalarization of the objective to generate training labels for the bounds through a tradeoff between causal effect min/max-imization and sensitivity model violation, which avoids model-specific analytical derivations. We further show that, under standard convexity and linearity conditions, our objective recovers the full Pareto frontier of solutions. Empirically, we demonstrate our amortized approach across various datasets, causal queries, and sensitivity levels, where our approach achieves a test-time computation that is orders of magnitude faster than per-instance methods. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first foundation model for in-context learning for causal sensitivity analysis.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.