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Nov 3

Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

Training Reasoning Models to Generate Diverse Scientific Ideas

One of the first steps of a research pipeline is generating ideas. Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to automate this step, but most of this work optimizes the quality of individual ideas, while overlooking diversity. In our work, we study document-grounded ideation, focusing on increasing the diversity of LLM generated ideas and ensuring they are high quality. Given prior papers, a model must propose a set of ideas that are each high-quality and clearly distinct from one another, while also being grounded in the input documents. To optimize for this, we propose training with a set-level reinforcement learning objective. In our setup, in a single generation, the model writes K structured idea cards grounded in the source papers, and the set is scored jointly, where each idea's quality is weighted by its distance from the ideas written before it. This teaches the model to steer each new idea away from its predecessors. We show that our trained 8B model achieves higher creative utility (a measure combining quality and diversity) than Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-6 Astra on our contamination-free benchmark. In a pilot human study with four experts, our sets are judged as promising as Claude Opus 4.8's and contain marginally more unique ideas. When a coding agent runs proof-of-concept experiments on the ideas, our model's success@k is comparable to Claude Opus 4.8's, so we see that the added diversity does not cost any executability.

Data Cards: Purposeful and Transparent Dataset Documentation for Responsible AI

As research and industry moves towards large-scale models capable of numerous downstream tasks, the complexity of understanding multi-modal datasets that give nuance to models rapidly increases. A clear and thorough understanding of a dataset's origins, development, intent, ethical considerations and evolution becomes a necessary step for the responsible and informed deployment of models, especially those in people-facing contexts and high-risk domains. However, the burden of this understanding often falls on the intelligibility, conciseness, and comprehensiveness of the documentation. It requires consistency and comparability across the documentation of all datasets involved, and as such documentation must be treated as a user-centric product in and of itself. In this paper, we propose Data Cards for fostering transparent, purposeful and human-centered documentation of datasets within the practical contexts of industry and research. Data Cards are structured summaries of essential facts about various aspects of ML datasets needed by stakeholders across a dataset's lifecycle for responsible AI development. These summaries provide explanations of processes and rationales that shape the data and consequently the models, such as upstream sources, data collection and annotation methods; training and evaluation methods, intended use; or decisions affecting model performance. We also present frameworks that ground Data Cards in real-world utility and human-centricity. Using two case studies, we report on desirable characteristics that support adoption across domains, organizational structures, and audience groups. Finally, we present lessons learned from deploying over 20 Data Cards.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 3, 2022

Model Cards for Model Reporting

Trained machine learning models are increasingly used to perform high-impact tasks in areas such as law enforcement, medicine, education, and employment. In order to clarify the intended use cases of machine learning models and minimize their usage in contexts for which they are not well suited, we recommend that released models be accompanied by documentation detailing their performance characteristics. In this paper, we propose a framework that we call model cards, to encourage such transparent model reporting. Model cards are short documents accompanying trained machine learning models that provide benchmarked evaluation in a variety of conditions, such as across different cultural, demographic, or phenotypic groups (e.g., race, geographic location, sex, Fitzpatrick skin type) and intersectional groups (e.g., age and race, or sex and Fitzpatrick skin type) that are relevant to the intended application domains. Model cards also disclose the context in which models are intended to be used, details of the performance evaluation procedures, and other relevant information. While we focus primarily on human-centered machine learning models in the application fields of computer vision and natural language processing, this framework can be used to document any trained machine learning model. To solidify the concept, we provide cards for two supervised models: One trained to detect smiling faces in images, and one trained to detect toxic comments in text. We propose model cards as a step towards the responsible democratization of machine learning and related AI technology, increasing transparency into how well AI technology works. We hope this work encourages those releasing trained machine learning models to accompany model releases with similar detailed evaluation numbers and other relevant documentation.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 5, 2018

What's documented in AI? Systematic Analysis of 32K AI Model Cards

The rapid proliferation of AI models has underscored the importance of thorough documentation, as it enables users to understand, trust, and effectively utilize these models in various applications. Although developers are encouraged to produce model cards, it's not clear how much information or what information these cards contain. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of 32,111 AI model documentations on Hugging Face, a leading platform for distributing and deploying AI models. Our investigation sheds light on the prevailing model card documentation practices. Most of the AI models with substantial downloads provide model cards, though the cards have uneven informativeness. We find that sections addressing environmental impact, limitations, and evaluation exhibit the lowest filled-out rates, while the training section is the most consistently filled-out. We analyze the content of each section to characterize practitioners' priorities. Interestingly, there are substantial discussions of data, sometimes with equal or even greater emphasis than the model itself. To evaluate the impact of model cards, we conducted an intervention study by adding detailed model cards to 42 popular models which had no or sparse model cards previously. We find that adding model cards is moderately correlated with an increase weekly download rates. Our study opens up a new perspective for analyzing community norms and practices for model documentation through large-scale data science and linguistics analysis.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 7, 2024

DraftFM: A FoundationModel for Day-Zero Drafting in Magic: The Gathering

Drafting a new Magic: The Gathering expansion begins before any pick from it has been observed: the complete card list is public, but the draft logs that supervised pick models train on do not yet exist. We study this day-zero regime directly. DraftFM is a discrete-choice policy that scores exactly the cards available in the current pack, conditioned on the drafted pool and the state of the draft. Every card enters as a frozen 775-dimensional function of its public card record, structured features and a fixed text embedding, with no card identities, set identities, or usage statistics anywhere in the model, so an unseen card is scored by the same machinery as a familiar one. A 1.6-million-parameter network fitted on 149 million human picks from 29 expansions predicts held-out picks in three expansions withheld in their entirety, reaching 50.8%, 60.4%, and 56.7% top-1 agreement, where uniform chance at the opening pick is about 7%. Refitted on all 32 observed expansions, the same architecture produced a card ranking for the then-unreleased set The Hobbit, sealed with its complete cryptographic provenance and published roughly 36 hours before the set became draftable on MTG Arena. The sealed ranking agrees with six independent expert reviewers roughly as much as those reviewers agree with one another. Evaluation against realized outcomes is committed to a follow-on note, whatever it shows.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 19

SciIR: A Large-scale Training Dataset and Benchmark for Scientific Image Reasoning Generation

While Text-to-Image (T2I) models have shown remarkable success in generating photorealistic visual content, they still struggle with the rigorous semantic alignment and logical reasoning required for scientific imagery. Inspired by Peirce's Semiotic Triad, we introduce Scientific Image Reasoning (SciIR), a comprehensive resource for training and evaluation of scientific image generation. We formalize scientific reasoning into three core dimensions: Entity Structure (Icon), Scientific Process (Index), and Scientific Law (Symbol). Specifically, to overcome the scarcity of training data in scientific image generation, we elaborately create SciIR-82k, a large-scale dataset containing over 80,000 high-quality scientific image-text pairs from cutting-edge publications. The dataset is hierarchically organized according to the semiotic dimensions and incorporates a Scientific Reasoning Chain-of-Thought (Sci-RCoT) to explicitly model underlying visual logic. For evaluation, we propose SciIR-Bench, which aligns with these three semiotic levels and employs an Atomic Checklist to convert the outcome-oriented scientific accuracy into process-oriented, verifiable, fine-grained questions. Our extensive experiments reveal significant deficiencies in current models' scientific reasoning capabilities. Furthermore, by fine-tuning on the SciIR-82k dataset, we developed the Qwen-Image-SciIR model, which achieves a substantial improvement on the SciIR-Bench, increasing the final score from 35\% to 43\%, laying a solid foundation for future advances in scientific image generation.