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Oct 16

CUARewardBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Reward Models on Computer-using Agent

Computer-using agents (CUAs) enable task completion through natural interaction with operating systems and software interfaces. While script-based verifiers are widely adopted for evaluation, they suffer from limited scalability and inability to provide step-wise assessment. Reward models offer promising alternatives, but their effectiveness on CUA evaluation remains largely underexplored. To address this gap, we present CUARewardBench, comprising four key contributions: (1) First-ever Comprehensive CUA Reward Benchmark: We introduce the first benchmark for evaluating both outcome reward models (ORM) and process reward models (PRM) on CUA tasks, enabling systematic assessment across trajectory-level and step-level evaluation. (2) Diverse, Practical and Reliable Dataset: CUARewardBench encompasses trajectories from 10 software categories and 7 agent architectures with varying performance levels (25.9%-50.8% success rates). All trajectories are expertly annotated through carefully designed protocols, with rigorous quality control to ensure reliability and practical applicability. (3) Comprehensive Analysis and Insights: Through extensive experiments across 7 vision-language models and 3 prompt templates, we reveal critical limitations of current CUA RMs, including insufficient visual reasoning capabilities, knowledge deficiencies, and the superiority of general VLMs over specialized CUA models for reward evaluation. (4) Unanimous Prompt Ensemble (UPE): Based on the insights from our comprehensive analysis, we propose UPE, a novel ensemble method that significantly enhances reward model reliability through strict unanimous voting and strategic prompt-template configurations. UPE achieves 89.8% precision and 93.3% NPV for ORM, and 81.7% precision and 85.1% NPV for PRM, substantially outperforming single VLMs and traditional ensemble approaches.

  • 12 authors
·
Oct 20, 2025

What Can a Leaderboard Certify? Compositional Controllability for Fair Evaluation and Training of Biomedical Literature-Review Agents

Leaderboards rank long-horizon agents by their final outputs. Yet a higher score alone does not establish whether two systems are comparable or which stage accounts for the difference. Unequal evidence, inputs, or budgets can affect scores, and statistical corrections do not remove this mismatch. We introduce compositional controllability to address these questions. A comparison window covers one stage, several stages, or the whole agent. Our central result bounds the gap between observed and controlled score differences using only nuisance outside the window. This yields an admissibility test applied before scores are inspected. Inadmissible comparisons are refused. For admissible pairs, an ordering is certified only when the score gap exceeds the combined sampling and nuisance radii; otherwise, it remains undecided. These decisions give each system a rank interval. We introduce BioLitBench, a benchmark of 2,042 biomedical articles represented as structured claim graphs. Among seven published pipelines, a conventional statistical analysis declares a winner in 14 of 21 pairwise comparisons. Yet the top-ranked system alone received the target review's bibliography. To isolate pipeline performance, our test requires matched inputs and a fixed backbone model. It refuses 11 of the 21 comparisons, including every comparison involving the top-ranked system. Seven of the 14 conventional conclusions fall within these refused pairs. The same comparison windows support stage-level training. We train SCRIBE on Qwen3.8-27B using rewards measured at each stage's exit. Under matched evidence, SCRIBE achieves a certified rank interval of [1,2], with certified advantages over all evaluated published pipelines and the evaluated Claude and OpenAI agents. Under same pool, SCRIBE matches the strongest published retriever and is certified above three published pipelines.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 25

Kepler: Auditable World Models for ARC-AGI-3

ARC-AGI-3 evaluates agents in interactive environments whose rules and objectives must be inferred from observation. We present Kepler, an open-source harness that represents hypotheses as executable world models and validates them through retrospective transition checks and conditional prediction checks. Under one frozen Claude Opus 5 configuration, Kepler obtained a server-verified 100.00 RHAE on all 25 public games, with no per-game model selection or score-conditioned reruns. On 181 of 183 completed levels, the final Opus attempt used no more actions than the corresponding median-human baseline. The retained board runs used 8,256 environment actions, of which 7,292 occurred in scored levels. Retained local provider-session records yield 858.0 million tokens, 97.37% cache reads, and a \$777.72 cost at September 1, 2026 API list-equivalent rates. We also report three evaluation failures: source-code leakage that produced an invalid perfect run, agents reconstructing a removed harness in a control condition, and autonomous repair masking a broken planner. A single-game observation case study showed that animation frames contained task-relevant information absent from settled text grids. Across the final Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol boards, 48 of 50 game-model cells reached 100. These results indicate that public-set score alone has limited discriminative value and motivate first-attempt, cost-conditioned, and verification-aware reporting.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 29

Label-Free Detection of Governance Evidence Degradation in Risk Decision Systems

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 19

Structured Proper Loss Geometries for Multiclass Classification: Theory and Controlled Empirical Evaluation

Strictly proper scoring rules identify the true conditional class distribution at population level, but their curvature can alter optimization and finite-sample behavior. We study three multiclass objectives: a class-aware quadratic Bregman score (CAPM), a strongly convex generator with constrained log-cosh ridges (HPG), and an HPG objective with an annealed probability-margin penalty (APMS). CAPM is treated as a structured instance of established quadratic scoring-rule theory. We derive conditional-regret, curvature, range, and logit-gradient bounds for CAPM and HPG, and prove exact penalty-range and conditional-target displacement bounds for APMS. Controlled five-seed experiments use Digits, Wisconsin breast cancer, and synthetic confusion and long-tail problems under clean labels, symmetric and pair-flip corruption, class imbalance, calibration evaluation, input corruption, and first-order adversarial perturbations. The candidates are close to cross-entropy on clean data and show descriptive gains in some noisy-label cells, but the five-seed comparisons are interpreted descriptively rather than as significance evidence. The selected noisy-label baselines perform better on Digits with 40% symmetric label noise, and explicit prior-adjustment methods perform better in the 30:1 synthetic long-tail experiment. Ablations do not show a consistent benefit from the candidate-specific graph, ridge, or margin components. The mathematical analysis establishes the stated properties, and the experiments delimit the empirical evidence; together they do not support a claim of general superiority.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 27

Multimodal Atmospheric Super-Resolution With Deep Generative Models

Score-based diffusion modeling is a generative machine learning algorithm that can be used to sample from complex distributions. They achieve this by learning a score function, i.e., the gradient of the log-probability density of the data, and reversing a noising process using the same. Once trained, score-based diffusion models not only generate new samples but also enable zero-shot conditioning of the generated samples on observed data. This promises a novel paradigm for data and model fusion, wherein the implicitly learned distributions of pretrained score-based diffusion models can be updated given the availability of online data in a Bayesian formulation. In this article, we apply such a concept to the super-resolution of a high-dimensional dynamical system, given the real-time availability of low-resolution and experimentally observed sparse sensor measurements from multimodal data. Additional analysis on how score-based sampling can be used for uncertainty estimates is also provided. Our experiments are performed for a super-resolution task that generates the ERA5 atmospheric dataset given sparse observations from a coarse-grained representation of the same and/or from unstructured experimental observations of the IGRA radiosonde dataset. We demonstrate accurate recovery of the high dimensional state given multiple sources of low-fidelity measurements. We also discover that the generative model can balance the influence of multiple dataset modalities during spatiotemporal reconstructions.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 28, 2025 1

Verification Without Sufficiency: Per-Chunk Filtering Fails on Multi-Hop RAG, and Decomposition Repairs It

Verification for retrieval-augmented generation usually scores each retrieved chunk and drops the ones that fail. We show this cannot work for multi-hop questions, and show what does. Per-chunk scoring assumes one chunk is a sufficient premise for the answer. Multi-hop questions are built so that none is, and the paragraph carrying the answer is the one the question does not name. Entailment scoring reaches 0.643, 0.523 and 0.560 AUC on HotpotQA, 2WikiMultihopQA and MuSiQue, against 0.951 on single-hop SQuAD. Seven controls rule out model capacity, premise length, hypothesis template, decision threshold, retriever, answer-matching criterion and prompt. End to end across three datasets, three generator sizes and two prompts, per-chunk gating is significantly worse than not filtering at all in every cell, and its penalty grows with generator capability. The repair is to condition verification on the decomposed sub-question rather than the original query. Using MuSiQue's gold decomposition, entailment on a later hop rises from 0.546, which is chance, to 0.840, a paired lift of +0.355 with a bootstrap interval of [0.331, 0.382]. An off-the-shelf Qwen2.5-7B decomposer, given the question and the top retrieved paragraph, reaches 0.637 and captures 31% of that ceiling; decomposing without retrieval reaches 0.533, below the original question. Iterative retrieval systems already produce such decompositions and discard them before verifying.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 31

KWBench: Measuring Unprompted Problem Recognition in Knowledge Work

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

clio-ai Clio AI
·
Apr 16 2

Neural Network-Based Score Estimation in Diffusion Models: Optimization and Generalization

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 28, 2024

Adaptive Generate-Rank-Verify: Inference-Time Search with Costly Verification

Many inference-time language-model pipelines combine a cheap reward signal with an expensive verifier, such as exact answer checking in mathematical reasoning or hidden-test execution in code generation. We formalize this setting using a learning-theoretic lens as generative active search: a cost-sensitive first-positive search problem in which a policy adaptively samples candidates from an unknown distribution, observes cheap scores, and pays for verifier labels until it finds a positive example. For a fixed prompt, the generator and reward model induce two unknown objects: a distribution over reward scores and a score-conditioned success function. When these quantities are known, we characterize the distribution-aware optimal policy using a dynamic programming approach. In the realistic and practical setting where both the score distribution and success function are unknown, we propose ADAP, a shellwise adaptive generate-rank-verify algorithm that progressively increases the number of sampled responses and top-ranked verifications. Under the monotonicity assumption that higher reward scores are no less likely to pass verification, we show that ADAP achieves expected cost within a constant factor of the distribution-aware optimum. We complement this result with learning-theoretic lower bounds, based on a centered star number, showing that structural assumptions on the score--label relationship are necessary. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and competitive programming validate the predicted advantage over both fixed non-adaptive policies and difficulty-adaptive baselines.

Computer Use at the Edge of the Statistical Precipice

Evaluating Computer Use Agents (CUAs) on interactive environments is fraught with methodological pitfalls that the field has yet to systematically address. We show that a 1MB replay script that blindly executes a recorded action sequence without ever observing the screen outperforms frontier models on prominent static benchmarks, and prove that its expected success rate is exactly equal to the source agent's pass@k in deterministic environments. We trace this and other failures to two root causes: non-principled environment design (static, unsandboxed, or unreliably verified environments) and non-principled evaluation methodology (naive aggregation and misuse of pass@k for stateful UI interactions). To address the first, we propose PRISM, five design principles for CUA environments (privileged verification, realistic environments, integrity-checked configurations, sandboxed execution, and multifactorial variability) and instantiate them in DigiWorld, a benchmark of 15 realistic sandboxed mobile applications able to evaluate agents in over 3.2 million verified unique configurations. To address the second, we develop an aggregation framework pairing Wilson score intervals with hierarchical bootstrap, producing confidence intervals that correctly account for the nested structure of CUA benchmarks, as we empirically demonstrate. All together, we show that principled environment design and rigorous evaluation methodology are not optional refinements but prerequisites for meaningful CUA research.

  • 9 authors
·
May 6

CODA: Cascaded Online Discontinuity-Aware Alignment for Real-Time Image-Based Score Following

Real-time score following from sheet images remains chal- lenging because the model must process streaming au- dio while resolving highly repetitive visual patterns un- der strict latency constraints. Recent image-based meth- ods have attempted to use multi-resolution prediction by simultaneously predicting the positions of the active sys- tem, bar, and note. However, their predictions across these different levels of notation are independent, which makes the predictions unstable and introduces unnecessary ex- tra search space for bar- and note-level predictions. Most existing methods also lack mechanisms to recover from score discontinuities, such as repeats, da capo (D.C.), or coda jumps. This paper proposes CODA, to the best of our knowledge, the first real-time score following system that addresses both gaps. CODA explicitly exploits the cascaded structure of music scores: it first selects the ac- tive system, then the active bar within it, and finally the active note within the selected bar. This enforces pre- diction consistency across resolutions. A silence-driven break mode enables recovery from arbitrary score discon- tinuities without requiring knowledge of the repeat struc- ture. Evaluated on the Multimodal Sheet Music Dataset (MSMD) piano benchmarks, CODA achieves state-of-the- art tracking accuracy and discontinuity-recovery perfor- mance under real-time throughput. Code is available at https://github.com/ValleyC/CODA.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 23

Rethinking Evaluation Metric for Probability Estimation Models Using Esports Data

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 12, 2023

LLM-as-a-Verifier: A General-Purpose Verification Framework

Scaling pre-training, post-training, and test-time compute have become the central paradigms for improving the capabilities of LLMs. In this work, we identify verification, the ability to determine the correctness of a solution, as a new scaling axis. To unlock this and demonstrate its effectiveness, we introduce LLM-as-a-Verifier, a general-purpose verification framework that provides fine-grained feedback for agentic tasks without requiring additional training. Unlike standard LM judges that prompt LLMs to produce discrete scores for candidate solutions, LLM-as-a-Verifier computes the expectation over the distribution of scoring token logits to generate continuous scores. This probabilistic formulation enables verification to scale along multiple dimensions: (1) score granularity, (2) repeated evaluation, and (3) criteria decomposition. In particular, we show that scaling the scoring granularity leads to better separation between positive and negative solutions, resulting in more calibrated comparisons. Moreover, scaling repeated evaluation and criteria decomposition consistently lead to additional gains in verification accuracy through variance and complexity reduction. We further introduce a cost-efficient ranking algorithm for selecting the best solution among candidates using the verifier's continuous scores. LLM-as-a-Verifier achieves state-of-the-art performance on Terminal-Bench V2 (86.5%), SWE-Bench Verified (78.2%), RoboRewardBench (87.4%), and MedAgentBench (73.3%). Beyond verification, the fine-grained signals from LLM-as-a-Verifier can also serve as a proxy for estimating task progress. We build an extension for Claude Code, enabling developers to monitor and improve their own agentic systems. Finally, we show that LLM-as-a-Verifier can provide dense feedback for RL, improving the sample efficiency of SAC and GRPO on robotics and mathematical reasoning benchmarks.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 5 1

Subset Selection Based On Multiple Rankings in the Presence of Bias: Effectiveness of Fairness Constraints for Multiwinner Voting Score Functions

We consider the problem of subset selection where one is given multiple rankings of items and the goal is to select the highest ``quality'' subset. Score functions from the multiwinner voting literature have been used to aggregate rankings into quality scores for subsets. We study this setting of subset selection problems when, in addition, rankings may contain systemic or unconscious biases toward a group of items. For a general model of input rankings and biases, we show that requiring the selected subset to satisfy group fairness constraints can improve the quality of the selection with respect to unbiased rankings. Importantly, we show that for fairness constraints to be effective, different multiwinner score functions may require a drastically different number of rankings: While for some functions, fairness constraints need an exponential number of rankings to recover a close-to-optimal solution, for others, this dependency is only polynomial. This result relies on a novel notion of ``smoothness'' of submodular functions in this setting that quantifies how well a function can ``correctly'' assess the quality of items in the presence of bias. The results in this paper can be used to guide the choice of multiwinner score functions for the subset selection setting considered here; we additionally provide a tool to empirically enable this.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 16, 2023

Batch Predictive Inference

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 20, 2024

Formal Model-Driven Analysis of Resilience of GossipSub to Attacks from Misbehaving Peers

GossipSub is a new peer-to-peer communication protocol designed to counter attacks from misbehaving peers by controlling what information is sent and to whom, via a score function computed by each peer that captures positive and negative behaviors of its neighbors. The score function depends on several parameters (weights, caps, thresholds) that can be configured by applications using GossipSub. The specification for GossipSub is written in English and its resilience to attacks from misbehaving peers is supported empirically by emulation testing using an implementation in Golang. In this work we take a foundational approach to understanding the resilience of GossipSub to attacks from misbehaving peers. We build the first formal model of GossipSub, using the ACL2s theorem prover. Our model is officially endorsed by the GossipSub developers. It can simulate GossipSub networks of arbitrary size and topology, with arbitrarily configured peers, and can be used to prove and disprove theorems about the protocol. We formalize fundamental security properties stating that the score function is fair, penalizes bad behavior, and rewards good behavior. We prove that the score function is always fair, but can be configured in ways that either penalize good behavior or ignore bad behavior. Using our model, we run GossipSub with the specific configurations for two popular real-world applications: the FileCoin and Eth2.0 blockchains. We show that all properties hold for FileCoin. However, given any Eth2.0 network (of any topology and size) with any number of potentially misbehaving peers, we can synthesize attacks where these peers are able to continuously misbehave by never forwarding topic messages, while maintaining positive scores so that they are never pruned from the network by GossipSub.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 9, 2022

Bounds on Agreement between Subjective and Objective Measurements

Objective estimators of multimedia quality are often judged by comparing estimates with subjective "truth data," most often via Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) or mean-squared error (MSE). But subjective test results contain noise, so striving for a PCC of 1.0 or an MSE of 0.0 is neither realistic nor repeatable. Numerous efforts have been made to acknowledge and appropriately accommodate subjective test noise in objective-subjective comparisons, typically resulting in new analysis frameworks and figures-of-merit. We take a different approach. By making only basic assumptions, we derive bounds on PCC and MSE that can be expected for a subjective test. Consistent with intuition, these bounds are functions of subjective vote variance. When a subjective test includes vote variance information, the calculation of the bounds is easy, and in this case we say the resulting bounds are "fully data-driven." We provide two options for calculating bounds in cases where vote variance information is not available. One option is to use vote variance information from other subjective tests that do provide such information, and the second option is to use a model for subjective votes. Thus we introduce a binomial-based model for subjective votes (BinoVotes) that naturally leads to a mean opinion score (MOS) model, named BinoMOS, with multiple unique desirable properties. BinoMOS reproduces the discrete nature of MOS values and its dependence on the number of votes per file. This modeling provides vote variance information required by the PCC and MSE bounds and we compare this modeling with data from 18 subjective tests. The modeling yields PCC and MSE bounds that agree very well with those found from the data directly. These results allow one to set expectations for the PCC and MSE that might be achieved for any subjective test, even those where vote variance information is not available.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 13

LLM Swiss Round: Aggregating Multi-Benchmark Performance via Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

ByteDance-Seed ByteDance Seed
·
Dec 24, 2025 2

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Gaussian Score Approximation for Diffusion Models and its Applications

By learning the gradient of smoothed data distributions, diffusion models can iteratively generate samples from complex distributions. The learned score function enables their generalization capabilities, but how the learned score relates to the score of the underlying data manifold remains largely unclear. Here, we aim to elucidate this relationship by comparing learned neural scores to the scores of two kinds of analytically tractable distributions: Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. The simplicity of the Gaussian model makes it theoretically attractive, and we show that it admits a closed-form solution and predicts many qualitative aspects of sample generation dynamics. We claim that the learned neural score is dominated by its linear (Gaussian) approximation for moderate to high noise scales, and supply both theoretical and empirical arguments to support this claim. Moreover, the Gaussian approximation empirically works for a larger range of noise scales than naive theory suggests it should, and is preferentially learned early in training. At smaller noise scales, we observe that learned scores are better described by a coarse-grained (Gaussian mixture) approximation of training data than by the score of the training distribution, a finding consistent with generalization. Our findings enable us to precisely predict the initial phase of trained models' sampling trajectories through their Gaussian approximations. We show that this allows the skipping of the first 15-30% of sampling steps while maintaining high sample quality (with a near state-of-the-art FID score of 1.93 on CIFAR-10 unconditional generation). This forms the foundation of a novel hybrid sampling method, termed analytical teleportation, which can seamlessly integrate with and accelerate existing samplers, including DPM-Solver-v3 and UniPC. Our findings suggest ways to improve the design and training of diffusion models.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 12, 2024

VecCISC: Improving Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency with Reasoning Trace Clustering and Candidate Answer Selection

A standard technique for scaling inference-time reasoning is Self-Consistency, whereby multiple candidate answers are sampled from an LLM and the most common answer is selected. More recently, it has been shown that weighted majority voting (e.g. Confidence-Informed Self Consistency (CISC)), which assigns a confidence value to each candidate answer and chooses the answer with the largest accumulated score, tends to be more accurate on a wide range of popular benchmarks. In practice, weighted majority voting necessitates calling a critic LLM on each candidate's reasoning trace to produce the answer's confidence score. This secondary series of LLM calls greatly increases the overhead and cost of weighted majority voting, despite its potential performance benefits. To reduce this expense, we propose VecCISC, a lightweight, adaptive framework that uses a measure of semantic similarity to filter reasoning traces that are semantically equivalent to others, degenerate, or hallucinated, thus decreasing the number of candidate answers that must be evaluated by the critic. To ensure adequate experimental thoroughness, we evaluate VecCISC on five challenging, widely-adopted datasets spanning the domains of mathematics, chemistry, biology, commonsense reasoning, and the humanities. Our results demonstrate that VecCISC reduces the total token usage by 47%, while maintaining or exceeding the accuracy of CISC.

  • 4 authors
·
May 7

Equal Ranking Quality, Different Decisions: Measuring and Reducing Order Dependence in LLM Scorers

In passage reranking, response ranking and multi-document question answering, LLMs can score several candidate documents or responses together in one prompt, each still receiving its own score. Such scorers are selected on ranking quality, but their scores determine a decision: what a score threshold retains, a reader answers, or which chosen/rejected pair enters preference training. Because the candidates share that prompt, reordering them changes their scores. The same query over the same candidates should still yield the same decision. However, equal ranking quality does not imply equal decisions: on passage reranking, five trained scorers within 0.010 nDCG@10 retain sets that overlap by only 0.66-0.84 when reordered. No prompt-time change we test resolves that dependence: the only one that improves ranking quality does not measurably improve decision stability. We introduce order-consistency SFT (OC-SFT), which attenuates it in the weights by penalizing disagreement between a candidate's scores across orderings. It holds ranking quality and leads every decision-stability measure among trained scorers on all three tasks. It is also more stable on 12 base models than order-averaged distillation, which trains on labels averaged across permutations. One OC-SFT permutation retains sets that overlap more than ten averaged off-the-shelf permutations. A comparison of such scorers should therefore report what a threshold retains and a reader answers, not ranking quality alone. Code is available at https://github.com/thomsonreuters/presentation-dependence.

GREAT Score: Global Robustness Evaluation of Adversarial Perturbation using Generative Models

Current studies on adversarial robustness mainly focus on aggregating local robustness results from a set of data samples to evaluate and rank different models. However, the local statistics may not well represent the true global robustness of the underlying unknown data distribution. To address this challenge, this paper makes the first attempt to present a new framework, called GREAT Score , for global robustness evaluation of adversarial perturbation using generative models. Formally, GREAT Score carries the physical meaning of a global statistic capturing a mean certified attack-proof perturbation level over all samples drawn from a generative model. For finite-sample evaluation, we also derive a probabilistic guarantee on the sample complexity and the difference between the sample mean and the true mean. GREAT Score has several advantages: (1) Robustness evaluations using GREAT Score are efficient and scalable to large models, by sparing the need of running adversarial attacks. In particular, we show high correlation and significantly reduced computation cost of GREAT Score when compared to the attack-based model ranking on RobustBench (Croce,et. al. 2021). (2) The use of generative models facilitates the approximation of the unknown data distribution. In our ablation study with different generative adversarial networks (GANs), we observe consistency between global robustness evaluation and the quality of GANs. (3) GREAT Score can be used for remote auditing of privacy-sensitive black-box models, as demonstrated by our robustness evaluation on several online facial recognition services.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 19, 2023

PrefixGuard: From LLM-Agent Traces to Online Failure-Warning Monitors

Large language model (LLM) agents now execute long, tool-using tasks where final outcome checks can arrive too late for intervention. Online warning requires lightweight prefix monitors over heterogeneous traces, but hand-authored event schemas are brittle and deployment-time LLM judging is costly. We introduce PrefixGuard, a trace-to-monitor framework with an offline StepView induction step followed by supervised monitor training. StepView induces deterministic typed-step adapters from raw trace samples, and the monitor learns an event abstraction and prefix-risk scorer from terminal outcomes. Across WebArena, τ^2-Bench, SkillsBench, and TerminalBench, the strongest PrefixGuard monitors reach 0.900/0.710/0.533/0.557 AUPRC. Using the strongest backend within each representation, they improve over raw-text controls by an average of +0.137 AUPRC. LLM judges remain substantially weaker under the same prefix-warning protocol. We also derive an observability ceiling on score-based area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) that separates monitor error from failures lacking evidence in the observed prefix. For finite-state audit, post-hoc deterministic finite automaton (DFA) extraction remains compact on WebArena and τ^2-Bench (29 and 20 states) but expands to 151 and 187 states on SkillsBench and TerminalBench. Finally, first-alert diagnostics show that strong ranking does not imply deployment utility: WebArena ranks well yet fails to support low-false-alarm alerts, whereas τ^2-Bench and TerminalBench retain more actionable early alerts. Together, these results position PrefixGuard as a practical monitor-synthesis recipe with explicit diagnostics for when prefix warnings translate into actionable interventions.

Verification of GossipSub in ACL2s

GossipSub is a popular new peer-to-peer network protocol designed to disseminate messages quickly and efficiently by allowing peers to forward the full content of messages only to a dynamically selected subset of their neighboring peers (mesh neighbors) while gossiping about messages they have seen with the rest. Peers decide which of their neighbors to graft or prune from their mesh locally and periodically using a score for each neighbor. Scores are calculated using a score function that depends on mesh-specific parameters, weights and counters relating to a peer's performance in the network. Since a GossipSub network's performance ultimately depends on the performance of its peers, an important question arises: Is the score calculation mechanism effective in weeding out non-performing or even intentionally misbehaving peers from meshes? We answered this question in the negative in our companion paper by reasoning about GossipSub using our formal, official and executable ACL2s model. Based on our findings, we synthesized and simulated attacks against GossipSub which were confirmed by the developers of GossipSub, FileCoin, and Eth2.0, and publicly disclosed in MITRE CVE-2022-47547. In this paper, we present a detailed description of our model. We discuss design decisions, security properties of GossipSub, reasoning about the security properties in context of our model, attack generation and lessons we learnt when writing it.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 15, 2023

UnpredictaBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Distributional Randomness in LLMs

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems.

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability. In practice it degrades calibration, and existing remedies address epistemic uncertainty, where a model's confidence accompanies a verifiably correct or incorrect answer. We study aleatoric forecasting, where the forecast itself is the output and the label is one stochastic outcome, taking NFL in-game win probability as a testbed with the betting market as a reference. Rewarding the realized per-play outcome fails, because the single outcome is a noisy target and the policy gradient corrupts the chain of thought. We introduce a verifiable, label-free reward, a state-conditioned empirical win rate estimated from past outcomes, that removes the label noise, and we keep the gradient off the reasoning, by direct prediction or a gradient mask, so it cannot be corrupted. Trained with this reward alone, without human labels or supervised fine-tuning, a 7B model reaches the calibration of the betting market by direct prediction and is better calibrated than a zero-shot frontier model. That frontier model and a tabular estimator reach the same Brier score as this model, identifying the market's small remaining edge as live in-game information beyond their shared inputs. Masking the gradient, rather than dropping the chain of thought, preserves reasoning from which the forecast follows, which ordinary chain-of-thought training corrupts.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 29

Memory Reward Inflation in Self-Improving LLM Agents

Self-improving LLM agents increasingly learn from experience without updating any weights. Each episode is stored in an external memory, scored, and retrieved for similar future tasks to shape later behavior. Viewed through a reward lens, the stored score is a proxy reward for an implicit, non-parametric policy. Each retrieved episode then becomes a policy-improvement step whose reliability hinges on how that score is produced. In deployment, ground-truth labels are unavailable, so the stored reward is at best an LLM assessment. This substitution creates a failure mode, the *Echo Gap*, across the memory-based self-improving agents and model families studied. Incorrect episodes receive inflated rewards; thus, the agent preferentially reuses the very mistakes it has most confident in. Because the error compounds through memory rather than averaging out and the confirming judge's errors remain correlated with the original self-grading bias, so it cannot identify which memories are overvalued. The missing property is formalized as the *Error-Independence Assumption* (EIA), which we prove is a *necessary* condition for correcting the inflation, not merely a description of a good verifier: a usable signal must track truth *and* decorrelate its error from the memory bias, and the recoverable payoff is a closed-form function of exactly those two quantities. We further show the inflation compounds not only when retrieval ranks by the stored score but also under plain similarity retrieval which is the regime the deployed agent uses. Finally, the answer-free de-inflation algorithm LUCID delivers a consistent end-to-end gain on the BIRD text-to-SQL benchmark. It raises execution accuracy to 56.9%, above both a Memento-style self-graded agent (54.0%, a +2.9-point mean gain across seeds) and a memory-less agent of identical architecture (52.4%).

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 28

Flexible Model Aggregation for Quantile Regression

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 26, 2021

Score Priors Guided Deep Variational Inference for Unsupervised Real-World Single Image Denoising

Real-world single image denoising is crucial and practical in computer vision. Bayesian inversions combined with score priors now have proven effective for single image denoising but are limited to white Gaussian noise. Moreover, applying existing score-based methods for real-world denoising requires not only the explicit train of score priors on the target domain but also the careful design of sampling procedures for posterior inference, which is complicated and impractical. To address these limitations, we propose a score priors-guided deep variational inference, namely ScoreDVI, for practical real-world denoising. By considering the deep variational image posterior with a Gaussian form, score priors are extracted based on easily accessible minimum MSE Non-i.i.d Gaussian denoisers and variational samples, which in turn facilitate optimizing the variational image posterior. Such a procedure adaptively applies cheap score priors to denoising. Additionally, we exploit a Non-i.i.d Gaussian mixture model and variational noise posterior to model the real-world noise. This scheme also enables the pixel-wise fusion of multiple image priors and variational image posteriors. Besides, we develop a noise-aware prior assignment strategy that dynamically adjusts the weight of image priors in the optimization. Our method outperforms other single image-based real-world denoising methods and achieves comparable performance to dataset-based unsupervised methods.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 8, 2023

Power law graph attention: exact generalization of scaled dot-product attention, empirical collapse at inference

The Large Language Model from Power Law Decoder Representations (PLDR-LLM) and its attention, Power Law Graph Attention (PLGA), replace the fixed bilinear form of scaled dot-product attention (SDPA) with a learned, input-generated bilinear operator G_{LM}, built from a positive tensor A_{LM} by elementwise power laws. The architecture is fully specified, verified against pinned reference releases; claims are labeled theorem, conditional theorem, measurement, or conjecture. Unconditionally: PLGA contains SDPA exactly at G_{LM}=I; A_{LM} and A_P are strictly entrywise positive, with Perron-Frobenius structure on A_{LM}; the DAG regularizer has the NOTEARS walk-counting form and positivity obstructs exact acyclicity; and, under nonresonance (satisfied by standard rotary frequencies), a commutant criterion identifies which operators preserve relative-position dependence. An inference-collapse theorem: exact input invariance of deductive outputs collapses inference to generalized SDPA with a constant operator. Measured invariance: relative fluctuations of 10^{-6} and below; perturbation bounds quantify but do not certify cached inference; the assembled proxy misses the decoding margin. A conditional three-stage mechanism (rotary twirl, concentration, row-map contraction) is measured on a released checkpoint. Blockwise training and scoring under the global Gram are stated with explicit target exposure; on tested samples, block and sequential scoring select identical answers and agree on the published TruthfulQA probability-mass metric within 5times 10^{-5} per item. Self-organized criticality enters as a phenomenological framework with an intrinsic order parameter; open claims become falsifiable conjectures. Selected proof cores are machine-checked in Lean 4.

Consistency Trajectory Models: Learning Probability Flow ODE Trajectory of Diffusion

Consistency Models (CM) (Song et al., 2023) accelerate score-based diffusion model sampling at the cost of sample quality but lack a natural way to trade-off quality for speed. To address this limitation, we propose Consistency Trajectory Model (CTM), a generalization encompassing CM and score-based models as special cases. CTM trains a single neural network that can -- in a single forward pass -- output scores (i.e., gradients of log-density) and enables unrestricted traversal between any initial and final time along the Probability Flow Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) in a diffusion process. CTM enables the efficient combination of adversarial training and denoising score matching loss to enhance performance and achieves new state-of-the-art FIDs for single-step diffusion model sampling on CIFAR-10 (FID 1.73) and ImageNet at 64x64 resolution (FID 1.92). CTM also enables a new family of sampling schemes, both deterministic and stochastic, involving long jumps along the ODE solution trajectories. It consistently improves sample quality as computational budgets increase, avoiding the degradation seen in CM. Furthermore, unlike CM, CTM's access to the score function can streamline the adoption of established controllable/conditional generation methods from the diffusion community. This access also enables the computation of likelihood. The code is available at https://github.com/sony/ctm.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 1, 2023

Safe: Enhancing Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models via Retrospective Step-aware Formal Verification

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has become the de facto method to elicit reasoning capabilities from large language models (LLMs). However, to mitigate hallucinations in CoT that are notoriously difficult to detect, current methods such as process reward models (PRMs) or self-consistency operate as opaque boxes and do not provide checkable evidence for their judgments, possibly limiting their effectiveness. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from the idea that "the gold standard for supporting a mathematical claim is to provide a proof". We propose a retrospective, step-aware formal verification framework Safe. Rather than assigning arbitrary scores, we strive to articulate mathematical claims in formal mathematical language Lean 4 at each reasoning step and provide formal proofs to identify hallucinations. We evaluate our framework Safe across multiple language models and various mathematical datasets, demonstrating a significant performance improvement while offering interpretable and verifiable evidence. We also propose FormalStep as a benchmark for step correctness theorem proving with 30,809 formal statements. To the best of our knowledge, our work represents the first endeavor to utilize formal mathematical language Lean 4 for verifying natural language content generated by LLMs, aligning with the reason why formal mathematical languages were created in the first place: to provide a robust foundation for hallucination-prone human-written proofs.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 4, 2025

CUA-Gym: Scaling Verifiable Training Environments and Tasks for Computer-Use Agents

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has driven breakthroughs in domains such as math, tool-use, and software engineering, yet its extension to computer-use agents (CUAs) has been bottlenecked by the scarcity of scalable training data with deterministic rewards. Constructing such data for CUAs requires consistent task instruction, executable environment, and verifiable reward. However, hand-curated benchmarks achieve high reward fidelity but cover few applications and LLM-as-judge-based datasets scale broadly but lack reliable verification. We present CUA-Gym, a scalable pipeline that co-generates task instructions, environment states, and reward functions. Concretely, a Generator agent constructs the initial and golden environment states, and a separate Discriminator agent writes the reward function from the task specification. An orchestrator agent drives the two through iterative rounds upon execution. Generated tuples then pass a final filter combining LLM majority voting and agent rollouts, ensuring quality beyond the per-task adversarial loop. To address the scarcity of training environments, we further synthesize CUA-Gym-Hub, a broad suite of high-fidelity mock web applications grounded in real-world software-use distributions, expanding the scale of CUA RLVR data by magnitude. Using this pipeline, we construct CUA-Gym, a dataset of 32,112 verified RLVR training tuples grounded in 110 environments. Trained with GSPO on CUA-Gym, our CUA-Gym-A3B and CUA-Gym-A17B achieve 62.1% and 72.6% on OSWorld-Verified, outperforming prior open-source CUAs at comparable scales, with performance scaling smoothly in both data volume and environment diversity. The same checkpoints also improve on the held-out WebArena benchmark, indicating transfer beyond the training environments. We will open-source the full synthesis pipeline, dataset, CUA-Gym-Hub environments, and models.

Qwen Qwen
·
May 24 2

SURE-RAG: Sufficiency and Uncertainty-Aware Evidence Verification for Selective Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) grounds answers in retrieved passages, yet relevance does not guarantee sufficiency: a topical passage may still fail to justify the answer. We study evidence sufficiency verification for selective RAG answering, in which a verifier receives a question, a candidate answer, and retrieved evidence and decides whether the evidence supports, refutes, or is insufficient for the answer, answering only when support is established. We present SURE-RAG, an aggregation protocol that treats evidence sufficiency as a set-level property: missing hops and unresolved conflicts cannot be detected by scoring passages independently. A shared claim-evidence verifier produces a local relation distribution for each (claim, passage) pair, which SURE-RAG aggregates into four interpretable answer-level feature blocks (coverage, relation strength, uncertainty, and retrieval), producing a three-way decision and an auditable selective score. We evaluate on HotpotQA-RAG v3, a controlled multi-hop benchmark, under an artifact-aware protocol (shortcut baselines, counterfactual swaps, no-oracle checks, and GPT-4o audits). Calibrated SURE-RAG attains 0.9075 Macro-F1 (raw 0.8951 +/- 0.0069), well above DeBERTa mean-pooling (0.6516) and a GPT-4o judge (0.7284), and on par with a strong concat cross-encoder (0.8888 +/- 0.0109) while remaining fully auditable. At 30% coverage, risk falls from 0.2588 to 0.1642, a 37% relative reduction. As a boundary-mapping experiment, we contrast SURE-RAG with GPT-4o on HaluBench unsafe detection: the ranking reverses (0.3343 vs. 0.7389 unsafe-F1), indicating that controlled sufficiency verification and natural hallucination detection are distinct problems.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 23

Learning Ordinal Probabilistic Reward from Preferences

Reward models are crucial for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values and intentions. Existing approaches follow either Generative (GRMs) or Discriminative (DRMs) paradigms, yet both suffer from limitations: GRMs typically demand costly point-wise supervision, while DRMs produce uncalibrated relative scores that lack probabilistic interpretation. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel reward modeling paradigm: Probabilistic Reward Model (PRM). Instead of modeling reward as a deterministic scalar, our approach treats it as a random variable, learning a full probability distribution for the quality of each response. To make this paradigm practical, we present its closed-form, discrete realization: the Ordinal Probabilistic Reward Model (OPRM), which discretizes the quality score into a finite set of ordinal ratings. Building on OPRM, we propose a data-efficient training strategy called Region Flooding Tuning (RgFT). It enables rewards to better reflect absolute text quality by incorporating quality-level annotations, which guide the model to concentrate the probability mass within corresponding rating sub-regions. Experiments on various reward model benchmarks show that our method improves accuracy by 2.9%sim7.4% compared to prior reward models, demonstrating strong performance and data efficiency. Analysis of the score distribution provides evidence that our method captures not only relative rankings but also absolute quality.

  • 9 authors
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Feb 13

AtomicCommitBench: Can Coding Agents Reconstruct Commit Histories from Squashed Patches?

Coding agents often finish a session by returning one squashed patch that mixes feature implementation, bug fixes, refactorings, tests, and configuration edits. While the final code may be correct, collapsing unrelated edits into one patch removes the history structure needed for review, selective revert, and later maintenance. We study retrospective commit-history reconstruction: given a completed squashed change, an agent groups its hunks into commits and materializes a replayable commit sequence. We formalize the task as hunk-to-commit partitioning with a replay requirement and build AtomicCommitBench, containing 800 real consecutive-commit episodes from 10 Python projects. Because multiple decompositions may be reasonable, we evaluate outputs using complementary metrics: PPAR for replay validity, ARI for reference-based grouping quality, and TCR for failure containment on scoreable modified-test episodes. Natural retrospective reconstruction proves substantially harder than replay checking or synthetic tangling. Although nearly all non-random methods achieve replay validity (PPAR >= 0.988), grouping quality ranges from 0.03 to 0.46 ARI. Matched synthetic composites are much easier than real same-author squashed diffs (+0.333 ARI). In our evaluation, the GPT-5.4 setup driven by Codex CLI (0.46 ARI) and the GLM-5 setup driven by Claude Code (0.43 ARI) outperform MiniMax (0.31) and Kimi (0.29). Qualitative analysis identifies same-file lumping and support-hunk drift as recurring failure modes. Dependency-Aware Commit Evidence (DACE) improves the lower-scoring setups by 0.05 to 0.08 ARI, indicating that dependency cues and hunk-role information help agents avoid locality-driven grouping errors. AtomicCommitBench enables evaluation of the commit histories produced by coding agents alongside the final code.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 2

AutoPSV: Automated Process-Supervised Verifier

In this work, we propose a novel method named Automated Process-Supervised Verifier (\textsc{AutoPSV}) to enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by automatically annotating the reasoning steps. AutoPSV begins by training a verification model on the correctness of final answers, enabling it to generate automatic process annotations. This verification model assigns a confidence score to each reasoning step, indicating the probability of arriving at the correct final answer from that point onward. We detect relative changes in the verification's confidence scores across reasoning steps to automatically annotate the reasoning process, enabling error detection even in scenarios where ground truth answers are unavailable. This alleviates the need for numerous manual annotations or the high computational costs associated with model-induced annotation approaches. We experimentally validate that the step-level confidence changes learned by the verification model trained on the final answer correctness can effectively identify errors in the reasoning steps. We demonstrate that the verification model, when trained on process annotations generated by AutoPSV, exhibits improved performance in selecting correct answers from multiple LLM-generated outputs. Notably, we achieve substantial improvements across five datasets in mathematics and commonsense reasoning. The source code of AutoPSV is available at https://github.com/rookie-joe/AutoPSV.

  • 7 authors
·
May 26, 2024

Synthetic Tabular Generators Fail to Preserve Behavioral Fraud Patterns: A Benchmark on Temporal, Velocity, and Multi-Account Signals

We introduce behavioral fidelity -- a third evaluation dimension for synthetic tabular data that measures whether generated data preserves the temporal, sequential, and structural behavioral patterns that distinguish real-world entity activity. Existing frameworks evaluate statistical fidelity (marginal distributions and correlations) and downstream utility (classifier AUROC on synthetic-trained models), but neither tests for the behavioral signals that operational detection and analysis systems actually rely on. We formalize a taxonomy of four behavioral fraud patterns (P1-P4) covering inter-event timing, burst structure, multi-account graph motifs, and velocity-rule trigger rates; define a degradation ratio metric calibrated to a real-data noise floor (1.0 = matches real variability, k = k-times worse); and prove that row-independent generators -- the dominant paradigm -- are structurally incapable of reproducing P3 graph motifs (Proposition 1) and produce non-positive within-entity IET autocorrelation (Proposition 2), making the positive burst fingerprint of fraud sequences unachievable regardless of architecture or training data size. We benchmark CTGAN, TVAE, GaussianCopula, and TabularARGN on IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection and the Amazon Fraud Dataset. All four fail severely: on IEEE-CIS composite degradation ratios range from 24.4x (TVAE) to 39.0x (GaussianCopula); on Amazon FDB, row-independent generators score 81.6-99.7x, while TabularARGN achieves 17.2x. We document generator-specific failure modes and their resolutions. The P1-P4 framework extends to any domain with entity-level sequential tabular data, including healthcare and network security. We release our evaluation framework as open source.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 12

Did We Actually Fix It? An Independent Adversarial Stress-Test of Post-Point-Adjustment Evaluation Metrics for Time-Series Anomaly Detection

Point-adjustment (PA), for years the default scoring protocol in time-series anomaly detection (TSAD), was shown by Kim et al. (2022) to award near-perfect F1 to random anomaly scores. The field adopted a suite of replacement metrics (PA%K, range-based precision/recall, affiliation precision/recall, and Volume-Under-the-Surface, VUS, ROC/PR). We ask, independently and adversarially, whether these resist no-skill detectors on real benchmarks, and find the answer turns entirely on one overlooked variable: N, the number of random attempts an adversary reports the best of. Under a single honest run (N=1), not one replacement metric is gameable on any of six benchmarks (UCR, SMD, SMAP, MSL, NAB, PSM): a random detector reaches 90% of the best real detector's score on at most 11% of series for affiliation-F1, 5% for the ROC family, and 2% for the PR-based metrics and PA%K. But under best-of-N reporting, the seed-shopping endemic to ML, the metrics split sharply. affiliation-F1 and every ROC-based metric inflate steeply, affiliation crossing gameable (25% of series) by N=3 and reaching 0.98 at the full pool (N=41), the ROC family crossing by N=9-11; the PR-based metrics and PA%K stay near-flat at every N, floored near the anomaly prevalence (the lone exception is NAB at large N). A paired test finds VUS-ROC inflated on 131 series where its sibling VUS-PR is not, and never the reverse. The ROC-vs-PR split follows from the order-statistic behaviour of AUC under extreme class imbalance (a random PR-AUC is floored at prevalence); affiliation inflates by a second route, its extreme single-run leniency (already fragile at N=1). We release a pip-installable stress-test harness, and recommend reporting single-run scores or disclosing N and preferring PR-based metrics, which resist best-of-N inflation on nearly every benchmark.

  • 1 authors
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Jul 18

Exploiting Tree Structure for Credit Assignment in RL Training of LLMs

Reinforcement learning improves LLM reasoning, yet sparse delayed reward over long sequences makes token-level credit assignment the key bottleneck. We study the verifiable-reward setting, where the final answer is checkable and multiple responses can be drawn per prompt. Reasoning tasks in math and medical QA align with this setup, where only a few decision tokens significantly impact the outcome. PPO offers token-level advantages with a learned value model, but it is complex to train both the actor and critic models simultaneously, and it is not easily generalizable, as the token-level values from the critic model can make training prone to overfitting. GRPO is critic-free and supports verifiable rewards, but spreads a single sequence-level return across tokens and ignores branching. We introduce Prefix-to-Tree (P2T), a simple procedure that converts a group of responses into a prefix tree and computes nonparametric prefix values \(V(s)\) by aggregating descendant outcomes. Built on P2T, we propose TEMPO (\textbf{Tree-Estimated Mean Prefix Value for Policy Optimization}), a critic-free algorithm that augments the group-relative outcome signal of GRPO with branch-gated temporal-difference corrections derived from the tree. At non-branch tokens, the temporal-difference (TD) term is zero, so TEMPO reduces to GRPO; at branching tokens, it supplies precise token-level credit without a learned value network or extra judges/teachers. On Qwen3-1.7B/4B, TEMPO outperforms PPO and GRPO on in-distribution (MATH, MedQA) and out-of-distribution (GSM-HARD, AMC23, MedMCQA, MMLU-Medical) benchmarks, and reaches higher validation accuracy with roughly the same wall-clock time.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 22, 2025

Improved Techniques for Training Consistency Models

Consistency models are a nascent family of generative models that can sample high quality data in one step without the need for adversarial training. Current consistency models achieve optimal sample quality by distilling from pre-trained diffusion models and employing learned metrics such as LPIPS. However, distillation limits the quality of consistency models to that of the pre-trained diffusion model, and LPIPS causes undesirable bias in evaluation. To tackle these challenges, we present improved techniques for consistency training, where consistency models learn directly from data without distillation. We delve into the theory behind consistency training and identify a previously overlooked flaw, which we address by eliminating Exponential Moving Average from the teacher consistency model. To replace learned metrics like LPIPS, we adopt Pseudo-Huber losses from robust statistics. Additionally, we introduce a lognormal noise schedule for the consistency training objective, and propose to double total discretization steps every set number of training iterations. Combined with better hyperparameter tuning, these modifications enable consistency models to achieve FID scores of 2.51 and 3.25 on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64times 64 respectively in a single sampling step. These scores mark a 3.5times and 4times improvement compared to prior consistency training approaches. Through two-step sampling, we further reduce FID scores to 2.24 and 2.77 on these two datasets, surpassing those obtained via distillation in both one-step and two-step settings, while narrowing the gap between consistency models and other state-of-the-art generative models.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 22, 2023 1

Reason Only When Needed: Efficient Generative Reward Modeling via Model-Internal Uncertainty

Recent advancements in the Generative Reward Model (GRM) have demonstrated its potential to enhance the reasoning abilities of LLMs through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. Despite these gains, existing implementations of GRM suffer from two critical limitations. First, CoT prompting is applied indiscriminately to all inputs regardless of their inherent complexity. This introduces unnecessary computational costs for tasks amenable to fast, direct inference. Second, existing approaches primarily rely on voting-based mechanisms to evaluate CoT outputs, which often lack granularity and precision in assessing reasoning quality. In this paper, we propose E-GRM, an efficient generative reward modeling framework grounded in model-internal uncertainty. E-GRM leverages the convergence behavior of parallel model generations to estimate uncertainty and selectively trigger CoT reasoning only when needed, without relying on handcrafted features or task-dependent signals. To improve reward fidelity, we introduce a lightweight discriminative scorer trained with a hybrid regression--ranking objective to provide fine-grained evaluation of reasoning paths. Experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks show that E-GRM substantially reduces inference cost while consistently improving answer accuracy, demonstrating that model-internal uncertainty is an effective and general signal for efficient reasoning-aware reward modeling.

ClawArena-Team: Benchmarking Subagent Orchestration and Dynamic Workflows in Language-Model Agents

Production large language-model (LLM) agents are increasingly deployed not as lone problem-solvers but as managers: a main model creates specialized subagents, delegates work, and orchestrates their parallel, asynchronous returns through dynamic workflows. Whether one model can actually run such a team is largely unmeasured: existing benchmarks score a policy's own task-solving or a fixed multi-agent system's emergent behavior, but none isolate the management ability of the single LLM acting as leader. We introduce ClawArena-Team, a benchmark of 41 multi-turn, multimodal, multi-directory scenarios spanning 258 evaluation rounds and 72 staged updates that measures this management ability. The main agent is deliberately constrained: it natively perceives only text and directly accesses only part of the workspace. It commands a fixed, locally served subagent pool, so score differences reflect management skill, not raw capability. All scoring is execution-based with no LLM judge: an overall score -- the Subagent-Management Score (SMS) -- multiplies task correctness by a least-privilege and modality-routing factor. Across twelve proprietary, community-hosted, and self-hosted models, experiments show that the management bottleneck is privilege granting rather than perception (no model exceeds 50% workspace-permission precision); that cost and management quality are decoupled (API cost spans over 100 times while the overall score spans under 4 times, with the cheapest open models on the Pareto frontier); and that most leaderboard scores cluster within a 9.9-point band while orchestration behaviors diverge by more than an order of magnitude. Code is available at https://github.com/aiming-lab/ClawArena.

  • 7 authors
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Jul 1

AUPIMO: Redefining Visual Anomaly Detection Benchmarks with High Speed and Low Tolerance

Recent advances in visual anomaly detection research have seen AUROC and AUPRO scores on public benchmark datasets such as MVTec and VisA converge towards perfect recall, giving the impression that these benchmarks are near-solved. However, high AUROC and AUPRO scores do not always reflect qualitative performance, which limits the validity of these metrics in real-world applications. We argue that the artificial ceiling imposed by the lack of an adequate evaluation metric restrains progression of the field, and it is crucial that we revisit the evaluation metrics used to rate our algorithms. In response, we introduce Per-IMage Overlap (PIMO), a novel metric that addresses the shortcomings of AUROC and AUPRO. PIMO retains the recall-based nature of the existing metrics but introduces two distinctions: the assignment of curves (and respective area under the curve) is per-image, and its X-axis relies solely on normal images. Measuring recall per image simplifies instance score indexing and is more robust to noisy annotations. As we show, it also accelerates computation and enables the usage of statistical tests to compare models. By imposing low tolerance for false positives on normal images, PIMO provides an enhanced model validation procedure and highlights performance variations across datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that PIMO offers practical advantages and nuanced performance insights that redefine anomaly detection benchmarks -- notably challenging the perception that MVTec AD and VisA datasets have been solved by contemporary models. Available on GitHub: https://github.com/jpcbertoldo/aupimo.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 3, 2024

Evidence Sufficiency Under Delayed Ground Truth: Proxy Monitoring for Risk Decision Systems

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

  • 1 authors
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Apr 16

RLPR: Extrapolating RLVR to General Domains without Verifiers

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) demonstrates promising potential in advancing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. However, its success remains largely confined to mathematical and code domains. This primary limitation stems from the heavy reliance on domain-specific verifiers, which results in prohibitive complexity and limited scalability. To address the challenge, our key observation is that LLM's intrinsic probability of generating a correct free-form answer directly indicates its own evaluation of the reasoning reward (i.e., how well the reasoning process leads to the correct answer). Building on this insight, we propose RLPR, a simple verifier-free framework that extrapolates RLVR to broader general domains. RLPR uses the LLM's own token probability scores for reference answers as the reward signal and maximizes the expected reward during training. We find that addressing the high variance of this noisy probability reward is crucial to make it work, and propose prob-to-reward and stabilizing methods to ensure a precise and stable reward from LLM intrinsic probabilities. Comprehensive experiments in four general-domain benchmarks and three mathematical benchmarks show that RLPR consistently improves reasoning capabilities in both areas for Gemma, Llama, and Qwen based models. Notably, RLPR outperforms concurrent VeriFree by 7.6 points on TheoremQA and 7.5 points on Minerva, and even surpasses strong verifier-model-dependent approaches General-Reasoner by 1.6 average points across seven benchmarks.

  • 12 authors
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Jun 22, 2025 8

PBSD: Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation for Long-Horizon Credit Assignment

Long-horizon agentic tasks pose a fundamental credit assignment challenge for outcome-base reinforcement learning: trajectory-level rewards verify final correctness but provide limited guidance on which intermediate reasoning steps or tool interactions contribute to the outcome. The difficulty is especially pronounced in multi-turn search agents, where successful trajectories may contain misleading actions and failed trajectories may contain valuable evidence-gathering steps. We propose PBSD (Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation), a Bayes-calibrated self-distillation method for fine-grained credit assignment under sparse final rewards. PBSD measures trajectory quality through the posterior-to-prior probability ratio of the verified answer and applies Bayes' rule to convert this hard-to-estimate answer-side ratio into a tractable likelihood ratio between a standard student model and a privileged answer-conditioned teacher model. Autoregressive decomposition of this Bayesian evidence score yields turn-level signals that identify whether each intermediate turn supports or undermines the verified outcome. Consequently, PBSD provides a principled and elegant reweighting scheme that transforms sparse outcome supervision into Bayes-calibrated turn-level credit signals, while remaining fully compatible with standard policy optimization. Experiments demonstrate that PBSD consistently enhances performance across both in-domain and out-of-domain settings, and effectively transfers knowledge from short-context training to long-context inference, suggesting that its fine-grained credit assignment mechanism facilitates more effective policy learning and yields improved generalization.

Likelihood-Based Reward Designs for General LLM Reasoning

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on reasoning benchmarks via reinforcement learning requires a specific reward function, often binary, for each benchmark. This comes with two potential limitations: the need to design the reward, and the potentially sparse nature of binary rewards. Here, we systematically investigate rewards derived from the probability or log-probability of emitting the reference answer (or any other prompt continuation present in the data), which have the advantage of not relying on specific verifiers and being available at scale. Several recent works have advocated for the use of similar rewards (e.g., VeriFree, JEPO, RLPR, NOVER). We systematically compare variants of likelihood-based rewards with standard baselines, testing performance both on standard mathematical reasoning benchmarks, and on long-form answers where no external verifier is available. We find that using the log-probability of the reference answer as the reward for chain-of-thought (CoT) learning is the only option that performs well in all setups. This reward is also consistent with the next-token log-likelihood loss used during pretraining. In verifiable settings, log-probability rewards bring comparable or better success rates than reinforcing with standard binary rewards, and yield much better perplexity. In non-verifiable settings, they perform on par with SFT. On the other hand, methods based on probability, such as VeriFree, flatline on non-verifiable settings due to vanishing probabilities of getting the correct answer. Overall, this establishes log-probability rewards as a viable method for CoT fine-tuning, bridging the short, verifiable and long, non-verifiable answer settings.

Deep Reinforcement Learning at the Edge of the Statistical Precipice

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

  • 5 authors
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Aug 30, 2021

When Implausible Tokens Get Reinforced: Tail-Aware Credit Calibration for LLM Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, widely used critic-free RL methods rely on uniform credit assignment, broadcasting the same advantage to all tokens regardless of their differences. We identify a critical failure mode of this design, which we refer to as Positive-Credit Contamination: low-probability tail tokens that are contextually erroneous receive identical positive credit to plausible ones within the same trajectory, resulting in the indiscriminate reinforcement of flawed reasoning behavior. To mitigate this issue, we propose Tail-Aware Credit calibratiOn (TACO), a method that calibrates uniform credit assignment to suppress undesirable positive updates. TACO first computes a tail-risk score that incorporates the local generation context to assess each token's risk of falling into the unreliable tail, distinguishing unexpected rarity from uncertainty-driven exploration. TACO then uses this score to tune positive credit for risky tokens without removing their gradients entirely, so that recurring useful rare patterns can accumulate reinforcement while incidental noise is progressively dampened. Experimental results across three LLMs and eight benchmarks show that TACO consistently outperforms GRPO-style baselines. Notably, TACO improves training stability, supporting sustained performance gains in long-horizon RL. The source code is available at: https://github.com/xiuyilou/TACO.

  • 7 authors
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Jul 7

SCORE: Replacing Layer Stacking with Contractive Recurrent Depth

Residual connections are central to modern deep neural networks, enabling stable optimization and efficient information flow across depth. In this work, we propose SCORE (Skip-Connection ODE Recurrent Embedding), a discrete recurrent alternative to classical layer stacking. Instead of composing multiple independent layers, SCORE iteratively applies a single shared neural block using an ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation)-inspired contractive update: ht+1 = (1 - dt) * ht + dt * F(ht) This formulation can be interpreted as a depth-by-iteration refinement process, where the step size dt explicitly controls stability and update magnitude. Unlike continuous Neural ODE approaches, SCORE uses a fixed number of discrete iterations and standard backpropagation without requiring ODE solvers or adjoint methods. We evaluate SCORE across graph neural networks (ESOL molecular solubility), multilayer perceptrons, and Transformer-based language models (nanoGPT). Across architectures, SCORE generally improves convergence speed and often accelerates training. SCORE is reducing parameter count through shared weights. In practice, simple Euler integration provides the best trade-off between computational cost and performance, while higher-order integrators yield marginal gains at increased compute. These results suggest that controlled recurrent depth with contractive residual updates offers a lightweight and effective alternative to classical stacking in deep neural networks.

  • 1 authors
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Mar 11